A statistical framework for calculating prospective sample sizes and classifying efficacy results for faecal egg count reduction tests in ruminants, horses and swine

The faecal egg count reduction test (FECRT) is the primary diagnostic tool used for detecting anthelmintic resistance at the farm level. It is therefore extremely important that the experimental design of a FECRT and the susceptibility classification of the result use standardised and statistically rigorous methods. Several different approaches for improving the analysis of FECRT data have been proposed, but little work has been published on how to address the issue of prospective sample size calculations. Here, we provide a complete and detailed overview of the quantitative issues relevant to a FECRT starting from basic statistical principles. We then present a new approach for determining sample size requirements for the FECRT that is built on a solid statistical framework, and provide a rigorous anthelminthic drug efficacy classification system for use with FECRT in livestock. Our approach uses two separate statistical tests, a one-sided inferiority test for resistance and a one-sided non-inferiority test for susceptibility, and determines a classification of resistant, susceptible or inconclusive based on the combined result. Since this approach is based on two independent one-sided tests, we recommend that a 90 % CI be used in place of the historically used 95 % CI. This maintains the desired Type I error rate of 5 %, and simultaneously reduces the required sample size. We demonstrate the use of this framework to provide sample size calculations that are rooted in the well-understood concept of statistical power. Tailoring to specific host/parasite systems is possible using typical values for expected pre-treatment and post-treatment variability in egg counts as well as within-animal correlation in egg counts. We provide estimates for these parameters for ruminants, horses and swine based on a re-examination of datasets that were available to us from a combination of published data and other sources. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the use of the framework, and parameter estimates are presented to estimate the required sample size for a hypothetical FECRT using ivermectin in cattle. The sample size calculation method and classification framework presented here underpin the sample size recommendations provided in the upcoming FECRT WAAVP guidelines for detection of anthelmintic resistance in ruminants, horses, and swine, and have also been made freely available as open-source software via our website (https://www.fecrt.com).

Patterns of mortality in domesticated ruminants in Ethiopia

Background

Premature death of livestock is a problem in all ruminant production systems. While the number of premature ruminant deaths in a country is a reasonable indicator for the nation's health, few data sources exist in a country like Ethiopia that can be used to generate valid estimates. The present study aimed to establish if three different data sets, each with imperfect information on ruminant mortality, including abortions, could be combined into improved estimates of nationwide mortality in Ethiopia.

Methods

We combined information from a recent survey of ruminant mortality with information from the Living Standards Measurement Study and the Disease Outbreak and Vaccination Reporting dataset. Generalized linear mixed and hurdle models were used for data analysis, with results summarized using predicted outcomes.

Results

Analyses indicated that most herds experienced zero mortality and reproductive losses, with rare occasions of larger losses. Diseases causing deaths varied greatly both geographically and over time. There was little agreement between the different datasets. While the models aid the understanding of patterns of mortality and reproductive losses, the degree of variation observed limited the predictive scope.

Conclusions

The models revealed some insight into why mortality rates are variable over time and are therefore less useful in measuring production or health status, and it is suggested that alternative measures of productivity, such as number of offspring raised to 1 year old per dam, would be more stable over time and likely more indicative.

FAIR data pipeline: provenance-driven data management for traceable scientific workflows

Modern epidemiological analyses to understand and combat the spread of disease depend critically on access to, and use of, data. Rapidly evolving data, such as data streams changing during a disease outbreak, are particularly challenging. Data management is further complicated by data being imprecisely identified when used. Public trust in policy decisions resulting from such analyses is easily damaged and is often low, with cynicism arising where claims of 'following the science' are made without accompanying evidence. Tracing the provenance of such decisions back through open software to primary data would clarify this evidence, enhancing the transparency of the decision-making process. Here, we demonstrate a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) data pipeline. Although developed during the COVID-19 pandemic, it allows easy annotation of any data as they are consumed by analyses, or conversely traces the provenance of scientific outputs back through the analytical or modelling source code to primary data. Such a tool provides a mechanism for the public, and fellow scientists, to better assess scientific evidence by inspecting its provenance, while allowing scientists to support policymakers in openly justifying their decisions. We believe that such tools should be promoted for use across all areas of policy-facing research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

The challenges of data in future pandemics

The use of data has been essential throughout the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic. We have needed it to populate our models, inform our understanding, and shape our responses to the disease. However, data has not always been easy to find and access, it has varied in quality and coverage, been difficult to reuse or repurpose. This paper reviews these and other challenges and recommends steps to develop a data ecosystem better able to deal with future pandemics by better supporting preparedness, prevention, detection and response.

Efficacy of high-throughput transthoracic ultrasonographic screening for on-farm detection of ovine pulmonary adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of high-throughput on-farm transthoracic ultrasound (TUS) to screen for ovine pulmonary adenocarcinoma (OPA), an infectious ovine disease of increasing concern. No other routine diagnosis of preclinical OPA is available, or any vaccine or treatment.

METHODS

More than 80,000 rapid TUS scans were applied on farms with a history of OPA. The TUS results from a convenience sample of 171 TUS-negative and 269 TUS-positive sheep were compared with postmortem histology/immunohistochemistry results, the 'gold standard' reference test for OPA diagnosis. These results, together with new data on within-flock prevalence, allowed estimation of the efficacy of rapid TUS screening to identify OPA (defined as tumours of larger than 1 cm) on-farm.

RESULTS

The TUS screening had an estimated specificity of 0.998 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.998-0.999) and an estimated sensitivity of between 0.76 (95% CI: 0.72-0.79) and 0.99 (95% CI: 0.97-0.99) depending on the presumed false-negative rate applied to the calculation.

CONCLUSION

High-throughput TUS should be considered for screening to identify individual sheep with OPA and has potential application to indicate flocks at low risk of OPA. However, lower efficacy is likely if conducted by less experienced persons.

A Tool for Prioritizing Livestock Disease Threats to Scotland

There are a number of disease threats to the livestock of Scotland that are not presently believed to be circulating in the UK. Here, we present the development of a tool for prioritizing resources for livestock disease threats to Scotland by combining a semi-quantitative model of the chance of introduction of different diseases with a semi-quantitative model of disease impact. Eighteen key diseases were identified and then input into a model framework to produce a semi-quantitative estimate of disease priorities. We estimate this through a model of the potential impacts of the infectious diseases in Scotland that is interpreted alongside a pre-existing generic risk assessment model of the risks of incursion of the diseases. The impact estimates are based on key metrics which influence the practical impact of disease. Metrics included are the rate of spread, the disease mitigation factors, impacts on animal welfare and production, the human health risks and the impacts on wider society. These quantities were adjusted for the size of the Scottish livestock population and were weighted using published scores. Of the 18 livestock diseases included, the model identifies highly pathogenic avian influenza, foot and mouth disease in cattle and bluetongue virus in sheep as having the greatest priority in terms of the combination of chance of introduction and disease impact. Disregarding the weighting for livestock populations and comparing equally between industry sectors, the results demonstrate that Newcastle disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza generally have the greatest potential impact. This model provides valuable information for the veterinary and livestock industries in prioritizing resources in the face of many disease threats. The system can easily be adjusted as disease situations evolve.

Endemic foot and mouth disease: pastoral in-herd disease dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) burden disproportionally affects Africa where it is considered endemic. Smallholder livestock keepers experience significant losses due to disease, but the dynamics and mechanisms underlying persistence at the herd-level and beyond remain poorly understood. We address this knowledge gap using stochastic, compartmental modelling to explore FMD virus (FMDV) persistence, outbreak dynamics and disease burden in individual cattle herds within an endemic setting. Our analysis suggests repeated introduction of virus from outside the herd is required for long-term viral persistence, irrespective of carrier presence. Risk of new disease exposures resulting in significant secondary outbreaks is reduced by the presence of immune individuals giving rise to a period of reduced risk, the predicted duration of which suggests that multiple strains of FMDV are responsible for observed yearly herd-level outbreaks. Our analysis suggests management of population turnover could potentially reduce disease burden and deliberate infection of cattle, practiced by local livestock keepers in parts of Africa, has little effect on the duration of the reduced risk period but increases disease burden. This work suggests that FMD control should be implemented beyond individual herds but, in the interim, herd management may be used to reduced FMD impact to livestock keepers.

Evaluating Diagnostic Tests With Near-Perfect Specificity: Use of a Hui-Walter Approach When Designing a Trial of a DIVA Test for Bovine Tuberculosis

Active surveillance of rare infectious diseases requires diagnostic tests to have high specificity, otherwise the false positive results can outnumber the true cases detected, leading to low positive predictive values. Where a positive result can have economic consequences, such as the cull of a bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) positive herd, establishing a high specificity becomes particularly important. When evaluating new diagnostic tests against a “gold standard” reference test with assumed perfect sensitivity and specificity, calculation of sample sizes are commonly done using a normal approximation to the binomial distribution, although this approach can be misleading. As the expected specificity of the evaluated diagnostic test nears 100%, the errors arising from this approximation are appreciable. Alternatively, it is straightforward to calculate the sample size by using more appropriate confidence intervals, while precisely quantifying the effect of sampling variability using the binomial distribution. However, regardless of the approach, if specificity is high the sample size required becomes large, and the gold standard may be prohibitively costly. An alternative to a gold standard test is to use at least two imperfect, conditionally independent tests, and to analyse the results using a variant of the approach initially proposed by Hui and Walter. We show how this method performs for tests with near-perfect specificity; in particular we show that the sample size required to deliver useful bounds on the precision becomes very large for both approaches. We illustrate these concepts using simulation studies carried out to support the design of a trial of a bTB vaccine and a diagnostic that is able to “Differentiate Infected and Vaccinated Animals” (DIVA). Both test characteristics and the efficacy of the bTB vaccine will influence the sample size required for the study. We propose an improved methodology using a two stage approach to evaluating diagnostic tests in low disease prevalence populations. By combining an initial gold standard pilot study with a larger study analyzed using a Hui–Walter approach, the sample size required for each study can be reduced and the precision of the specificity estimate improved, since information from both studies is combined.

Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of "Brexit"

Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological "risk factors") and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health surveillance after Brexit. This insight from stakeholders is important to improve uptake and implementation of animal heath surveillance activities and the future resilience of the livestock industry. The conclusions drawn from this study are applicable not only to Scotland but to other countries and international organizations involved in global animal health surveillance activities.

Combining Slaughterhouse Surveillance Data with Cattle Tracing Scheme and Environmental Data to Quantify Environmental Risk Factors for Liver Fluke in Cattle

Liver fluke infection causes serious disease (fasciolosis) in cattle and sheep in many regions of the world, resulting in production losses and additional economic consequences due to condemnation of the liver at slaughter. Liver fluke depends on mud snails as an intermediate host and infect livestock when ingested through grazing. Therefore, environmental factors play important roles in infection risk and climate change is likely to modify this. Here, we demonstrate how slaughterhouse data can be integrated with other data, including animal movement and climate variables to identify environmental risk factors for liver fluke in cattle in Scotland. We fitted a generalized linear mixed model to the data, with exposure-weighted random and fixed effects, an approach which takes into account the amount of time cattle spent at different locations, exposed to different levels of risk. This enabled us to identify an increased risk of liver fluke with increased animal age, rainfall, and temperature and for farms located further to the West, in excess of the risk associated with a warmer, wetter climate. This model explained 45% of the variability in liver fluke between farms, suggesting that the unexplained 55% was due to factors not included in the model, such as differences in on-farm management and presence of wet habitats. This approach demonstrates the value of statistically integrating routinely recorded slaughterhouse data with other pre-existing data, creating a powerful approach to quantify disease risks in production animals. Furthermore, this approach can be used to better quantify the impact of projected climate change on liver fluke risk for future studies.

Model-Based Policymaking: A Framework to Promote Ethical "Good Practice" in Mathematical Modeling for Public Health Policymaking

Mathematical models are increasingly relied upon as decision support tools, which estimate risks and generate recommendations to underpin public health policies. However, there are no formal agreements about what constitutes professional competencies or duties in mathematical modeling for public health. In this article, we propose a framework to evaluate whether mathematical models that assess human and animal disease risks and control strategies meet standards consistent with ethical "good practice" and are thus "fit for purpose" as evidence in support of policy. This framework is derived from principles of biomedical ethics: independence, transparency (autonomy), beneficence/non-maleficence, and justice. We identify ethical risks associated with model development and implementation and consider the extent to which scientists are accountable for the translation and communication of model results to policymakers so that the strengths and weaknesses of the scientific evidence base and any socioeconomic and ethical impacts of biased or uncertain predictions are clearly understood. We propose principles to operationalize a framework for ethically sound model development and risk communication between scientists and policymakers. These include the creation of science-policy partnerships to mutually define policy questions and communicate results; development of harmonized international standards for model development; and data stewardship and improvement of the traceability and transparency of models via a searchable archive of policy-relevant models. Finally, we suggest that bespoke ethical advisory groups, with relevant expertise and access to these resources, would be beneficial as a bridge between science and policy, advising modelers of potential ethical risks and providing overview of the translation of modeling advice into policy.

Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease

In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government.

E. coli O157 on Scottish cattle farms: evidence of local spread and persistence using repeat cross-sectional data

Background

Escherichia coli (E. coli) O157 is a virulent zoonotic strain of enterohaemorrhagic E. coli. In Scotland (1998-2008) the annual reported rate of human infection is 4.4 per 100,000 population which is consistently higher than other regions of the UK and abroad. Cattle are the primary reservoir. Thus understanding infection dynamics in cattle is paramount to reducing human infections.

A large database was created for farms sampled in two cross-sectional surveys carried out in Scotland (1998 - 2004). A statistical model was generated to identify risk factors for the presence of E. coli O157 on farms. Specific hypotheses were tested regarding the presence of E. coli O157 on local farms and the farms previous status. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profiles were further examined to ascertain whether local spread or persistence of strains could be inferred.

Results

The presence of an E. coli O157 positive local farm (average distance: 5.96km) in the Highlands, North East and South West, farm size and the number of cattle moved onto the farm 8 weeks prior to sampling were significant risk factors for the presence of E. coli O157 on farms. Previous status of a farm was not a significant predictor of current status (p = 0.398). Farms within the same sampling cluster were significantly more likely to be the same PFGE type (p < 0.001), implicating spread of strains between local farms. Isolates with identical PFGE types were observed to persist across the two surveys, including 3 that were identified on the same farm, suggesting an environmental reservoir. PFGE types that were persistent were more likely to have been observed in human clinical infections in Scotland (p < 0.001) from the same time frame.

Conclusions

The results of this study demonstrate the spread of E. coli O157 between local farms and highlight the potential link between persistent cattle strains and human clinical infections in Scotland. This novel insight into the epidemiology of Scottish E. coli O157 paves the way for future research into the mechanisms of transmission which should help with the design of control measures to reduce E. coli O157 from livestock-related sources.

Genomic variations associated with attenuation in Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis vaccine strains

BACKGROUND

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) whole cell vaccines have been widely used tools in the control of Johne's disease in animals despite being unable to provide complete protection. Current vaccine strains derive from stocks created many decades ago; however their genotypes, underlying mechanisms and relative degree of their attenuation are largely unknown.

RESULTS

Using mouse virulence studies we confirm that MAP vaccine strains 316 F, II and 2e have diverse but clearly attenuated survival and persistence characteristics compared with wild type strains. Using a pan genomic microarray we characterise the genomic variations in a panel of vaccine strains sourced from stocks spanning over 40 years of maintenance. We describe multiple genomic variations specific for individual vaccine stocks in both deletion (26-32 Kbp) and tandem duplicated (11-40 Kbp) large variable genomic islands and insertion sequence copy numbers. We show individual differences suitable for diagnostic differentiation between vaccine and wild type genotypes and provide evidence for functionality of some of the deleted MAP-specific genes and their possible relation to attenuation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows how culture environments have influenced MAP genome diversity resulting in large tandem genomic duplications, deletions and transposable element activity. In combination with classical selective systematic subculture this has led to fixation of specific MAP genomic alterations in some vaccine strain lineages which link the resulting attenuated phenotypes with deficiencies in high reactive oxygen species handling.

Accounting for uncertainty in model-based prevalence estimation: paratuberculosis control in dairy herds

Background

A common approach to the application of epidemiological models is to determine a single (point estimate) parameterisation using the information available in the literature. However, in many cases there is considerable uncertainty about parameter values, reflecting both the incomplete nature of current knowledge and natural variation, for example between farms. Furthermore model outcomes may be highly sensitive to different parameter values. Paratuberculosis is an infection for which many of the key parameter values are poorly understood and highly variable, and for such infections there is a need to develop and apply statistical techniques which make maximal use of available data.

Results

A technique based on Latin hypercube sampling combined with a novel reweighting method was developed which enables parameter uncertainty and variability to be incorporated into a model-based framework for estimation of prevalence. The method was evaluated by applying it to a simulation of paratuberculosis in dairy herds which combines a continuous time stochastic algorithm with model features such as within herd variability in disease development and shedding, which have not been previously explored in paratuberculosis models. Generated sample parameter combinations were assigned a weight, determined by quantifying the model’s resultant ability to reproduce prevalence data. Once these weights are generated the model can be used to evaluate other scenarios such as control options. To illustrate the utility of this approach these reweighted model outputs were used to compare standard test and cull control strategies both individually and in combination with simple husbandry practices that aim to reduce infection rates.

Conclusions

The technique developed has been shown to be applicable to a complex model incorporating realistic control options. For models where parameters are not well known or subject to significant variability, the reweighting scheme allowed estimated distributions of parameter values to be combined with additional sources of information, such as that available from prevalence distributions, resulting in outputs which implicitly handle variation and uncertainty. This methodology allows for more robust predictions from modelling approaches by allowing for parameter uncertainty and combining different sources of information, and is thus expected to be useful in application to a large number of disease systems.

Prevalence of antibodies to bovine viral diarrhoea virus in bulk tank milk and associated risk factors in Scottish dairy herds

Bulk tank milk samples were collected from 374 dairy farms in Scotland in 2007/2008 along with questionnaire data relating to the management of the farm. Milk samples were tested for antibodies to bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) using a commercially available (Svanova) kit and percentage positivity scores calculated according to the manufacturer's guidelines. There were 220 farms that did not routinely vaccinate for bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD), and these were distributed according to the Swedish BVD eradication classes as 12.7 per cent, 22.3 per cent, 44.5 per cent and 20.5 per cent for Classes 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. A more sophisticated statistical method (finite mixture modelling) which does not depend on arbitrary thresholds and categories suggested a 73 per cent prevalence of herds with high mean levels of antibodies. Risk factor analysis suggested that routine vaccination for BVD, suspicion of BVD, housing of pregnant cows with calves, total number of cows and the proportion of cows that were dry were all associated with increased BVDV antibodies in bulk milk. The inclusion of BVD within the farm's health plan was associated with decreased BVDV antibodies in the bulk milk.

Pathogenic potential to humans of bovine Escherichia coli O26, Scotland

Escherichia coli O26 and O157 have similar overall prevalences in cattle in Scotland, but in humans, Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O26 infections are fewer and clinically less severe than E. coli O157 infections. To investigate this discrepancy, we genotyped E. coli O26 isolates from cattle and humans in Scotland and continental Europe. The genetic background of some strains from Scotland was closely related to that of strains causing severe infections in Europe. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling found an association between hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) and multilocus sequence type 21 strains and confirmed the role of stx(2) in severe human disease. Although the prevalences of E. coli O26 and O157 on cattle farms in Scotland are equivalent, prevalence of more virulent strains is low, reducing human infection risk. However, new data on E. coli O26-associated HUS in humans highlight the need for surveillance of non-O157 enterohemorrhagic E. coli and for understanding stx(2) phage acquisition.

Quantifying the sources of variability in equine faecal egg counts: implications for improving the utility of the method

The faecal egg count (FEC) is the most widely used means of quantifying the nematode burden of horses, and is frequently used in clinical practice to inform treatment and prevention. The statistical process underlying the FEC is complex, comprising a Poisson counting error process for each sample, compounded with an underlying continuous distribution of means between samples. Being able to quantify the sources of variability contributing to this distribution of means is a necessary step towards providing estimates of statistical power for future FEC and FECRT studies, and may help to improve the usefulness of the FEC technique by identifying and minimising unwanted sources of variability. Obtaining such estimates require a hierarchical statistical model coupled with repeated FEC observations from a single animal over a short period of time. Here, we use this approach to provide the first comparative estimate of multiple sources of within-horse FEC variability. The results demonstrate that a substantial proportion of the observed variation in FEC between horses occurs as a result of variation in FEC within an animal, with the major sources being aggregation of eggs within faeces and variation in egg concentration between faecal piles. The McMaster procedure itself is associated with a comparatively small coefficient of variation, and is therefore highly repeatable when a sufficiently large number of eggs are observed to reduce the error associated with the counting process. We conclude that the variation between samples taken from the same animal is substantial, but can be reduced through the use of larger homogenised faecal samples. Estimates are provided for the coefficient of variation (cv) associated with each within animal source of variability in observed FEC, allowing the usefulness of individual FEC to be quantified, and providing a basis for future FEC and FECRT studies.

Spread of E. coli O157 infection among Scottish cattle farms: stochastic models and model selection

Identifying risk factors for the presence of Escherichia coli O157 infection on cattle farms is important for understanding the epidemiology of this zoonotic infection in its main reservoir and for informing the design of interventions to reduce the public health risk. Here, we use data from a large-scale field study carried out in Scotland to fit both "SIS"-type dynamical models and statistical risk factor models. By comparing the fit (assessed using maximum likelihood) of different dynamical models we are able to identify the most parsimonious model (using the AIC statistic) and compare it with the model suggested by risk factor analysis. Both approaches identify 2 key risk factors: the movement of cattle onto the farm and the number of cattle on the farm. There was no evidence for a role of other livestock species or seasonality, or of significant risk of local spread. However, the most parsimonious dynamical model does predict that farms can infect other farms through routes other than cattle movement, and that there is a nonlinear relationship between the force of infection and the number of infected farms. An important prediction from the most parsimonious model is that although only approximately 20% farms may harbour E. coli O157 infection at any given time approximately 80% may harbour infection at some point during the course of a year.

Prevalence of Pasteurella multocida and other respiratory pathogens in the nasal tract of Scottish calves

The prevalence of Pasteurella multocida, a cause of bovine respiratory disease, was studied in a random sample of beef suckler and dairy farms throughout Scotland, by means of a cross-sectional survey. A total of 637 calves from 68 farms from six geographical regions of Scotland were sampled between February and June 2008. Deep nasal swabs were taken, and samples that were culture-positive for P multocida were confirmed by PCR. Prevalence of P multocida was 17 per cent (105 of 616 calves); 47 per cent of farms had at least one positive animal. A higher prevalence was detected in dairy calves than beef calves (P=0.04). It was found that P multocida was associated with Mycoplasma-like organisms (P=0.06) and bovine parainfluenza type 3 virus (BPI-3) (P=0.04), detected by culture and quantitative PCR of nasal swabs, respectively. Detection of P multocida was not associated with bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV), bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BoHV-1) or bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV). Mycoplasma-like organisms, BPI-3, BRSV, BoHV-1 and BVDV were detected in 58, 17, four, 0 and eight calves, on 25, five, two, 0 and five of the 68 farms, respectively.

Temporal and spatial patterns of bovine Escherichia coli O157 prevalence and comparison of temporal changes in the patterns of phage types associated with bovine shedding and human E. coli O157 cases in Scotland between 1998-2000 and 2002-2004

Background

Escherichia coli O157 is an important cause of acute diarrhoea, haemorrhagic colitis and, especially in children, haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). Incidence rates for human E. coli O157 infection in Scotland are higher than most other United Kingdom, European and North American countries. Cattle are considered the main reservoir for E. coli O157. Significant associations between livestock related exposures and human infection have been identified in a number of studies.

Results

Animal Studies: There were no statistically significant differences (P = 0.831) in the mean farm-level prevalence between the two studies (SEERAD: 0.218 (95%CI: 0.141-0.32); IPRAVE: 0.205 (95%CI: 0.135-0.296)). However, the mean pat-level prevalence decreased from 0.089 (95%CI: 0.075-0.105) to 0.040 (95%CI: 0.028-0.053) between the SEERAD and IPRAVE studies respectively (P < 0.001). Highly significant (P < 0.001) reductions in mean pat-level prevalence were also observed in the spring, in the North East and Central Scotland, and in the shedding of phage type (PT) 21/28. Human Cases: Contrasting the same time periods, there was a decline in the overall comparative annual reported incidence of human cases as well as in all the major PT groups except 'Other' PTs. For both cattle and humans, the predominant phage type between 1998 and 2004 was PT21/28 comprising over 50% of the positive cattle isolates and reported human cases respectively. The proportion of PT32, however, was represented by few (<5%) of reported human cases despite comprising over 10% of cattle isolates. Across the two studies there were differences in the proportion of PTs 21/28, 32 and 'Other' PTs in both cattle isolates and reported human cases; however, only differences in the cattle isolates were statistically significant (P = 0.002).

Conclusion

There was no significant decrease in the mean farm-level prevalence of E. coli O157 between 1998 and 2004 in Scotland, despite significant declines in mean pat-level prevalence. Although there were declines in the number of human cases between the two study periods, there is no statistically significant evidence that the overall rate (per 100,000 population) of human E. coli O157 infections in Scotland over the last 10 years has altered. Comparable patterns in the distribution of PTs 21/28 and 32 between cattle and humans support a hypothesized link between the bovine reservoir and human infections. This emphasizes the need to apply and improve methods to reduce bovine shedding of E. coli O157 in Scotland where rates appear higher in both cattle and human populations, than in other countries.

Comparison of three alternative methods for analysis of equine Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test data

The Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) is the most widely used method of assessing the efficacy of anthelmintics, and is the only in vivo technique currently approved for use with horses. Equine Faecal Egg Count (FEC) data are frequently characterised by a low mean, high variability, small sample size and frequent zero count observations. Accurate analysis of the data therefore depends on the use of an appropriate statistical technique. Analyses of simulated FECRT data by methods based on calculation of the empirical mean and variance, non-parametric bootstrapping, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are compared. The MCMC method consistently outperformed the other methods, independently of the distribution from which the data were generated. Bootstrapping produced notional 95% confidence intervals containing the true parameter as little as 40% of the time with sample sizes of less than 50. Analysis of equine FECRT data yielded inconclusive results in 53 of 63 (84%) datasets, suggesting that the routine use of prior sample size calculations should be adopted to ensure sufficient data are collected. The authors conclude that computationally intensive parametric methods such as MCMC be used for analysis of FECRT data with sample sizes of less than 50, in order to avoid erroneous inference about the true efficacy of anthelmintics in the field.

Diagnostic accuracy of PCR for Jaagsiekte sheep retrovirus using field data from 125 Scottish sheep flocks

Using a representative sample of Scottish sheep comprising 125 flocks, the sensitivity and specificity of PCR for Jaagsiekte sheep retrovirus (JSRV) was estimated. By combining and adapting existing methods, the characteristics of the diagnostic test were estimated (in the absence of a gold standard reference) using repeated laboratory replicates. As the results of replicates within the same animal cannot be considered to be independent, the performance of the PCR was calculated at individual replicate level. The median diagnostic specificity of the PCR when applied to individual animals drawn from the Scottish flock was estimated to be 0.997 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.996-0.999), whereas the median sensitivity was 0.107 (95% CI 0.077-0.152). Considering the diagnostic test as three replicates where a positive result on any one or more replicates results in a positive test, the median sensitivity increased to 0.279. Reasons for the low observed sensitivity were explored by comparing the performance of the test as a function of the concentration of target DNA using spiked positive controls with known concentrations of target DNA. The median sensitivity of the test when used with positive samples with a mean concentration of 1.0 target DNA sequence per 25μL was estimated to be 0.160, which suggests that the PCR had a high true (analytical) sensitivity and that the low observed (diagnostic) sensitivity in individual samples was due to low concentrations of target DNA in the blood of clinically healthy animals.

The prevalence of bovine viral diarrhoea virus infection in beef suckler herds in Scotland

Bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) is an endemic disease of cattle that causes substantial losses to both beef and dairy production worldwide. The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of active BVD virus (BVDV) infection in beef suckler herds in Scotland. Information was collected from 301 herds using a stratified random sampling design based on agricultural census data. Herds were classified as with and without active infection based on the within-herd BVDV seroprevalence in young stock using Bayesian finite mixture modelling. This method accounted for within- and between-herd variability and allowed for classification error by the diagnostic tests. The observed sample data enabled the discrimination of three distinct seroprevalence cohorts. The results provided evidence of active BVDV infection in 16% of herds and no evidence of recent exposure in approximately two thirds of herds. The epidemiological significance of the further 16% of herds containing young stock with a median BVDV seroprevalence of 26.3-38.5% remains unclear. The fact that a large percentage of herds did not show evidence of recent infection is encouraging from an animal health and welfare perspective and the study provides a model for the further exploration of strategies aimed at BVD control at national level.

Bayesian inference for within-herd prevalence of Leptospira interrogans serovar Hardjo using bulk milk antibody testing

Leptospirosis is the most widespread zoonosis throughout the world and human mortality from severe disease forms is high even when optimal treatment is provided. Leptospirosis is also one of the most common causes of reproductive losses in cattle worldwide and is associated with significant economic costs to the dairy farming industry. Herds are tested for exposure to the causal organism either through serum testing of individual animals or through testing bulk milk samples. Using serum results from a commonly used enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test for Leptospira interrogans serovar Hardjo (L. hardjo) on samples from 979 animals across 12 Scottish dairy herds and the corresponding bulk milk results, we develop a model that predicts the mean proportion of exposed animals in a herd conditional on the bulk milk test result. The data are analyzed through use of a Bayesian latent variable generalized linear mixed model to provide estimates of the true (but unobserved) level of exposure to the causal organism in each herd in addition to estimates of the accuracy of the serum ELISA. We estimate 95% confidence intervals for the accuracy of the serum ELISA of (0.688, 0.987) and (0.975, 0.998) for test sensitivity and specificity, respectively. Using a percentage positivity cutoff in bulk milk of at most 41% ensures that there is at least a 97.5% probability of less than 5% of the herd being exposed to L. hardjo. Our analyses provide strong statistical evidence in support of the validity of interpreting bulk milk samples as a proxy for individual animal serum testing. The combination of validity and cost-effectiveness of bulk milk testing has the potential to reduce the risk of human exposure to leptospirosis in addition to offering significant economic benefits to the dairy industry.

Failure to transmit scrapie infection by transferring preimplantation embryos from naturally infected donor sheep

The objective of the study was to examine whether or not the preimplantation embryo can act as a carrier of classic scrapie infection. The study was carried out on quarantined premises with sheep of highly susceptible scrapie genotypes. Uninfected embryos, collected from New Zealand-derived Suffolk ewes, were surgically transferred into recipient ewes that were also of New Zealand origin. Seventeen negative control lambs were born on the study premises from these embryo transfers. Thirty-nine experimental lambs were from embryos collected from naturally infected donor ewes. The experimental lambs were also born on the study premises after their surgical transfer into recipient ewes of New Zealand origin. These embryos had been collected from donor ewes in a scrapie-infected flock where the ewes were clinically sick with scrapie or developed clinical scrapie after embryo collection. All lambs were confirmed as scrapie susceptible of the ARQ/ARQ genotype. Twenty-eight experimental animals survived to the end point of the study at 5 yr of age with a mean survival of 1579 d. In the negative control group, 12 of 17 sheep survived to 5 yr of age with a mean survival of 1508 d. Postmortem examinations were carried out on all animals derived by embryo transfer, and in none was histologic or immunohistochemical evidence of scrapie found. In contrast, in the originating flock the majority of scrapie cases occurred in ARQ/ARQ genotyped animals where a 56% mortality from scrapie had been recorded in animals of this genotype. Thus, the study provides no evidence for transmission of scrapie and reinforces published evidence that vertical transmission of scrapie may be circumvented by embryo transfer procedures.

The interaction between dam methylation sites and Xba1 restriction digest sites in Escherichia coli O157:H7 EDL933

AIMS

The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the reason for the predicted pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) pattern for the sequenced Escherichia coli O157:H7 EDL933 (EDL933) being different from that observed in practice, using the restriction enzyme Xba1.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Primers were designed that flanked either side of each of the predicted Xba1 restriction sites, and the resultant PCR products were sequenced. No sequencing errors were found in the published genome. The distribution of dam methylation sites within the genome was investigated, and a new PFGE pattern was predicted by assuming that any Xba1 restriction site that coincided with a dam methylation site would not be cut. The estimated mean band sizes were obtained from six replicate gels. It was found that the observed and predicted PFGE patterns were in good agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference between the observed and the predicted PFGE patterns for EDL933, using Xba1, could be accounted for by assuming that the methylated restriction sites were not cut.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

PFGE is commonly used as a subtyping method. This study provides additional information about the basic technique that could enhance the interpretation of PFGE patterns in comparative studies of the E. coli isolates.

EspP, a Type V-secreted serine protease of enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7, influences intestinal colonization of calves and adherence to bovine primary intestinal epithelial cells

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) comprise a group of zoonotic diarrhoeal pathogens of worldwide importance. Cattle are a key reservoir; however the molecular mechanisms that promote persistent colonization of the bovine intestines by EHEC are ill-defined. The large plasmid of EHEC O157:H7 encodes several putative virulence factors. Here, it is reported that the pO157-encoded Type V-secreted serine protease EspP influences the intestinal colonization of calves. To dissect the basis of attenuation, a bovine primary rectal epithelial cell line was developed. Adherence of E. coli O157:H7 to such cells was significantly impaired by espP mutation but restored upon addition of highly purified exogenous EspP. Data of this study add to the growing body of evidence that cytotoxins facilitate intestinal colonization by EHEC.

Risk factors for the presence of high-level shedders of Escherichia coli O157 on Scottish farms

Escherichia coli O157 infections are the cause of sporadic or epidemic cases of often bloody diarrhea that can progress to hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), a systematic microvascular syndrome with predominantly renal and neurological complications. HUS is responsible for most deaths associated with E. coli O157 infection. From March 2002 to February 2004, approximately 13,000 fecal pat samples from 481 farms with finishing/store cattle throughout Scotland were examined for the presence of E. coli O157. A total of 441 fecal pats from 91 farms tested positive for E. coli O157. From the positive samples, a point estimate for high-level shedders was identified using mixture distribution analysis on counts of E. coli O157. Models were developed based on the confidence interval surrounding this point estimate (high-level shedder, greater than 10(3) or greater than 10(4) CFU g(-1) feces). The mean prevalence on high-level-shedding farms was higher than that on low-level-shedding farms. The presence of a high-level shedder on a farm was found to be associated with a high proportion of low-level shedding, consistent with the possibility of a higher level of transmission. Analysis of risk factors associated with the presence of a high-level shedder on a farm suggested the importance of the pathogen and individual host rather than the farm environment. The proportion of high-level shedders of phage 21/28 was higher than expected by chance. Management-related risk factors that were identified included the type of cattle (female breeding cattle) and cattle stress (movement and weaning), as opposed to environmental factors, such as water supply and feed.

Prevalence, spatial distribution and the effect of control measures on louping-ill virus in the Forest of Bowland, Lancashire

The complex pathogen-host-vector system of the tick-borne louping-ill virus causes economic losses to sheep and red grouse in upland United Kingdom. This paper examines the spatial distribution, incidence and effect of control measures on louping-ill virus in the Bowland Fells of Lancashire. Seroprevalence in sheep at the beginning of the study varied within the area and was affected significantly by the frequency of acaricide treatment. There was a clear decrease over 5 years in the effective force of infection on farms implementing a vaccination programme, irrespective of acaricide treatment regime, however, only one third of farms apparently eliminated infection. On farms where vaccination did not occur or where vaccination was carried out intermittently, the estimated force of infection was variable or possibly increased. Thus, as befits a complex host-pathogen system, reductions in prevalence were not as dramatic as predicted; we discuss the potential explanations for these observations.

Herd-level risk factors associated with the presence of Phage type 21/28 E. coli O157 on Scottish cattle farms

Background

E. coli O157 is a bacterial pathogen that is shed by cattle and can cause severe disease in humans. Phage type (PT) 21/28 is a subtype of E. coli O157 that is found across Scotland and is associated with particularly severe human morbidity.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey of Scottish cattle farms was conducted in the period Feb 2002-Feb 2004 to determine the prevalence of E. coli O157 in cattle herds. Data from 88 farms on which E. coli O157 was present were analysed using generalised linear mixed models to identify risk factors for the presence of PT 21/28 specifically.

Results

The analysis identified private water supply, and northerly farm location as risk factors for PT 21/28 presence. There was a significant association between the presence of PT 21/28 and an increased number of E. coli O157 positive pat samples from a farm, and PT 21/28 was significantly associated with larger E. coli O157 counts than non-PT 21/28 E. coli O157.

Conclusion

PT 21/28 has significant risk factors that distinguish it from other phage types of E. coli O157. This finding has implications for the control of E. coli O157 as a whole and suggests that control could be tailored to target the locally dominant PT.

Prevalence of ‘head shooting’ and the characteristics of the wounds in culled wild Scottish red deer

The carcases of 230 wild, culled red deer (Cervus elaphus) were examined for the presence of bullet wounds and permanent wound tracts to determine the prevalence and significance of wounds involving the head, legs or carcase trunk. Head wounds were found in 17 (7.4 per cent) of the carcases and were classified into two groups: nine in which the marksman was considered to have specifically targeted the head, and eight carcases in which the head wound was considered to have resulted from a ;coup de grace' shot to dispatch a previously wounded animal. The analysis of the wound data from the carcase trunks, in combination with data collected in a previous study, indicates that the initial wound tracts in all the deer appeared to have lower mean terminal probabilities than subsequent wound tracts, and that this effect is exacerbated during the rut.

Assessing the efficacy of within-animal control strategies against E. coli O157: A simulation study

A stochastic simulation model was used to assess the efficacy of potential measures to control the levels of Escherichia coli O157 within the bovine host. The model described E. coli O157 population sizes at several sites along the bovine gut and therefore only interventions that operate at an individual animal level could be evaluated. In order to use the model to evaluate the control strategies, it was necessary to make assumptions about how each strategy affected E. coli O157 populations in vivo. The within-animal conditions under these control strategies were modelled by adjusting the growth rates of E. coli O157 at specific sites of interest in the gut, based on these assumptions. The model simulated the population dynamics of an initial dose of E. coli O157 inoculated into an animal in the presence of inhibitory probiotics or antibiotics, bactericidal antibiotics or probiotics, and following fasting. Of the control strategies considered, the use of inhibitory probiotics appeared most promising and continued development of a suitable product is to be encouraged.

Antibody responses to recombinant protein fragments of the major outer membrane protein and polymorphic outer membrane protein POMP90 in Chlamydophila abortus-infected pregnant sheep

Chlamydophila abortus is one of the major causes of infectious abortion in pregnant sheep (enzootic abortion of ewes or EAE) worldwide. Organisms shed in infected placentas and uterine discharges at lambing time are the main sources of environmental contamination, responsible for transmission to susceptible animals and possible human contacts. In the present study, a recently developed test, based on a recombinant fragment of the polymorphic outer membrane protein POMP90 (rOMP90-4 indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay [iELISA]) and one based on the variable segment 2 (VS2) region of the major outer membrane protein (MOMP) (MOMP VS2 iELISA) were compared using sera from C. abortus-infected ewes at different stages throughout pregnancy. The rOMP90 iELISA detected antibody much earlier in pregnancy than the MOMP iELISA, which, like the complement fixation test, detected antibody only at the time of abortion or lambing. No anti-MOMP antibody response could be detected in three of seven experimentally infected ewes. Furthermore, the rOMP90 iELISA detected antibody in an animal that seroconverted during the course of the study, which the MOMP iELISA failed to detect. Overall, the results show that the rOMP90-4 iELISA is considerably more sensitive than the MOMP VS2 iELISA for identifying animals infected with C. abortus. Earlier detection of infection will allow appropriate control measures to be taken to reduce environmental contamination, thus limiting the spread of infection, financial losses, and the possible risks of zoonotic transmission to humans.

Super-shedding cattle and the transmission dynamics of Escherichia coli O157

The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 displays striking variability across the Scottish cattle population. On 78% of farms, in a cross-sectional survey of 952, no shedding of E. coli O157 was detected, but on a small proportion, approximately 2%, very high prevalences of infection were found (with 90-100% of pats sampled being positive). We ask whether this variation arises from the inherent stochasticity in transmission dynamics or whether it is a signature of underlying heterogeneities in the cattle population. A novel approach is taken whereby the cross-sectional data are viewed as providing independent snapshots of a dynamic process. Using maximum-likelihood methods to fit time-dependent epidemiological models to the data we obtain estimates for the rates of immigration and transmission of E. coli O157 infection - parameters which have not been previously quantified in the literature. A comparison of alternative model fits reveals that the variation in the prevalence data is best explained when a proportion of the cattle are assumed to transmit infection at much higher levels than the rest - the so-called super-shedders. Analysis of a second dataset, comprising samples taken from 32 farms at monthly intervals over a period of 1 year, additionally yields an estimate for the rate of recovery from infection. The pattern of prevalence displayed in the second dataset also strongly supports the super-shedder hypothesis.

A simulation model for the study of the within-animal infection dynamics of E. coli O157

Escherichia coli 0157 can cause serious illness, even death, in humans. There is some consensus that the main reservoirs of this harmful bacterium are the rumens and intestines of cattle. Hence, a stochastic model of the bovine gut was developed to investigate the in vivo population dynamics of E. coli O157. Because bacterial numbers can reach minimal levels, a stochastic system was considered, with a birth-death process being used to represent bacterial growth and decay dynamics throughout the gastrointestinal tract. Reinfection through ingestion of bacteria present in the environment was allowed to occur and the required clustered distribution of inter-event times was implemented through the use of a random hazard doubly stochastic Poisson process. Due to the inclusion of multiple compartments, a feedback mechanism and an interest in the non-equilibrium dynamics of the process, it was not possible to obtain an analytical representation of the process and therefore, a simulation study was used to obtain results. The within-animal model can be used to explore the efficacy of control measures which act at an individual animal level.

Prevalence and virulence factors of Escherichia coli serogroups O26, O103, O111, and O145 shed by cattle in Scotland

A national survey was conducted to determine the prevalence of Escherichia coli O26, O103, O111, and O145 in feces of Scottish cattle. In total, 6,086 fecal pats from 338 farms were tested. The weighted mean percentages of farms on which shedding was detected were 23% for E. coli O26, 22% for E. coli O103, and 10% for E. coli O145. The weighted mean prevalences in fecal pats were 4.6% for E. coli O26, 2.7% for E. coli O103, and 0.7% for E. coli O145. No E. coli O111 was detected. Farms with cattle shedding E. coli serogroup O26, O103, or O145 were widely dispersed across Scotland and were identified most often in summer and autumn. However, on individual farms, fecal shedding of E. coli O26, O103, or O145 was frequently undetectable or the numbers of pats testing positive were small. For serogroup O26 or O103 there was clustering of positive pats within management groups, and the presence of an animal shedding one of these serogroups was a positive predictor for shedding by others, suggesting local transmission of infection. Carriage of vtx was rare in E. coli O103 and O145 isolates, but 49.0% of E. coli O26 isolates possessed vtx, invariably vtx1 alone or vtx1 and vtx2 together. The carriage of eae and ehxA genes was highly associated in all three serogroups. Among E. coli serogroup O26 isolates, 28.9% carried vtx, eae, and ehxA-a profile consistent with E. coli O26 strains known to cause human disease.

Spatial distribution of Escherichia coli O157-positive farms in Scotland

Using a sample of 949 Scottish farms with finishing cattle, the spatial distribution of Escherichia coli O157-positive farms was investigated using disease mapping models. The overall prevalence of E. coli O157-positive farms was estimated as 22%. The regions used in this study were the 16 postcode areas of Scotland. For each region, the posterior relative risk (RR) was estimated as a model-based alternative to the saturated standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), i.e., the ratio between observed and expected cases in a region. Three Bayesian hierarchical models with generalized linear modeling of the area-specific risks were used to estimate the posterior relative risk of E. coli O157-positive farms in the postcode areas: a random-effects model incorporating only spatially uncorrelated heterogeneity; a model incorporating both spatially correlated and uncorrelated heterogeneity; and a pseudo-mixture model with unstructured correlation and a weighted mix of two variance components representing the spatial correlation and a jump structure. None of the models identified any areas with a significant increase or decrease in risk. The deviance information criteria slightly favored the simplest model (RR range: 0.92--1.09). However, this model appeared to smooth out more of the variation in the RR compared to the pseudo-mixture model, which gave a more informative pattern of the posterior relative risks (range: 0.81--1.22).

Rectal carriage of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157 in slaughtered cattle

Escherichia coli O157:H7 is an important cause of diarrhea, hemorrhagic colitis, and potentially fatal human illness. Cattle are considered a primary reservoir of infection, and recent experimental evidence has indicated that the terminal rectum is the principal site of bacterial carriage. To test this finding in naturally colonized animals, intact rectum samples from 267 cattle in 24 separate lots were obtained immediately after slaughter, and fecal material and mucosal surfaces were cultured for E. coli O157 by direct and enrichment methods. Two locations, 1 and 15 cm proximal to the recto-anal junction, were tested. In total, 35 animals were positive for E. coli O157 at at least one of the sites and 232 animals were negative as determined by all tests. The frequency of isolation and the numbers of E. coli O157 cells were higher at the site closer to the recto-anal junction, confirming our previous experimental findings. We defined low- and high-level carriers as animals with E. coli O157 levels of <1 x 10(3) CFU g(-1) or <1 x 10(3) CFU ml(-1) and animals with E. coli O157 levels of > or =1 x 10(3) CFU g(-1) or > or =1 x 10(3) CFU ml(-1) in feces or tissues, respectively. High-level carriage was detected in 3.7% of the animals (95% confidence interval, 1.8 to 6.8%), and carriage on the mucosal surface of the terminal rectum was associated with high-level fecal excretion. In summary, our results support previous work demonstrating that the mucosal epithelium in the bovine terminal rectum is an important site for E. coli O157 carriage in cattle. The data also support the hypothesis that high-level fecal shedding (> or =1 x 10(3) CFU g of feces(-1)) of enterohemorrhagic E. coli O157 results from colonization of this site.

The role of the statistician in the Scottish Agricultural and Biological Research Institutes

Several of the Scottish Agricultural and Biological Research Institutes carry out research on domestic animal health and welfare. Statistical services are provided by Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, a sister research organisation. At one of these institutes, a statistician has been an integral member of the animal experiments and ethics committee for over 10 years, and each animal experiment is examined by the committee statistician as part of the review process. This paper will describe this review process, and then discuss those areas in which statistical advice has had most impact in the reduction of animal numbers. It is suggested that most benefit does not come from simple sample-size calculations, but rather from the application of the principles of good experimental design and close collaboration between the scientist and the statistician in the design and analysis of experiments. The final conclusion is that scientists welcome constructive, long-term statistical input, although budgetary issues can prove to be a barrier.

Co-ordinate single-cell expression of LEE4- and LEE5-encoded proteins of Escherichia coli O157:H7

Escherichia coli O157:H7 is a zoonotic pathogen that can express a type III secretion system (TTSS) considered important for colonization and persistence in ruminants. E. coli O157:H7 strains have been shown to vary markedly in levels of protein secreted using the TTSS and this study has confirmed that a high secretion phenotype is more prevalent among isolates associated with human disease than isolates shed by healthy cattle. The variation in secretion levels is a consequence of heterogeneous expression, being dependent on the proportion of bacteria in a population that are actively engaged in protein secretion. This was demonstrated by indirect immunofluorescence and eGFP fusions that examined the expression of locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE)-encoded factors in individual bacteria. In liquid media, the expression of EspA, tir::egfp, intimin, but not map::egfp were co-ordinated in a subpopulation of bacteria. In contrast to E. coli O157:H7, expression of tir::egfp in EPEC E2348/69 was equivalent in all bacteria although the same fusion exhibited variable expression when transformed into an E. coli O157:H7 background. An E. coli O157:H7 strain deleted for the LEE demonstrated weak but variable expression of tir::egfp indicating that the elements controlling the heterogeneous expression lie outside the LEE. The research also demonstrated the rapid induction of tir::egfp and map::egfp on contact with bovine epithelial cells. This control in E. coli O157:H7 may be required to limit exposure of key surface antigens, EspA, Tir and intimin during colonization of cattle but allow their rapid production on contact with bovine gastrointestinal epithelium at the terminal rectum.

Survey of permanent wound tracts in the carcases of culled wild red deer in Scotland

The number and sites of permanent wound tracts in the carcases of 943 wild culled red deer (Cervus elaphus) were recorded. During the peak period of the red deer rut there was a significant increase in the number of these tracts in the carcases, which was associated with a decrease from 89 per cent to 71 per cent in the probability of the first permanent wound tract also being the last (the terminal probability). There were significantly more permanent wound tracts in the carcases of one group (predominantly males) than in a second group (predominantly females and calves). In carcases with a single tract in the trunk, in which the heart and lungs were also examined, 80 per cent had tracts involving the heart and/or lungs, the recommended thoracic target organs. Tracts involving vital structures in the neck were also common, with 15.3 per cent of the carcases with a single permanent tract having damage limited to cervical structures.

Factors influencing the shedding of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 by beef suckler cows

A study was designed to investigate management factors that might influence the shedding of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) O157 by beef cows in Scotland, where there is a particularly high rate of human infection. Thirty-two herds were visited at least monthly over approximately 1 year for collection of fresh faecal pat samples and information on management factors. The faecal pat samples were tested for VTEC O157 by established culture and immunomagnetic separation methods. Questionnaires were completed at the monthly visits to record management factors. Data were analysed using both univariate and multi-factor (GLMM) analysis. Changes in the number of cows in a group, dogs, wild geese, housing, and the feeding of draff (distillers' grains) were statistically significant as risk factors. The event of calving appeared to reduce the likelihood of shedding. Any effects of weaning or turnout were not statistically significant. It appears that the rate of shedding of VTEC O157 is influenced by several factors but possibly the most important of these are the circumstances of animals being housed, or, when outside, the presence of wild geese.

Lymphoid follicle-dense mucosa at the terminal rectum is the principal site of colonization of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 in the bovine host

Escherichia coli O157:H7 causes bloody diarrhea and potentially fatal systemic sequelae in humans. Cattle are most frequently identified as the primary source of infection, and E. coli O157:H7 generally colonizes the gastrointestinal tracts of cattle without causing disease. In this study, persistence and tropism were assessed for four different E. coli O157:H7 strains. Experimentally infected calves shed the organism for at least 14 days prior to necropsy. For the majority of these animals, as well as for a naturally colonized animal obtained from a commercial beef farm, the highest numbers of E. coli O157:H7 were found in the feces, with negative or significantly lower levels detected in lumen contents taken from the gastrointestinal tract. Detailed examination demonstrated that in these individuals the majority of tissue-associated bacteria were adherent to mucosal epithelium within a defined region extending up to 5 cm proximally from the recto-anal junction. The tissue targeted by E. coli O157:H7 was characterized by a high density of lymphoid follicles. Microcolonies of the bacterium were readily detected on the epithelium of this region by immunofluorescence microscopy. As a consequence of this specific distribution, E. coli O157:H7 was present predominantly on the surface of the fecal stool. In contrast, other E. coli serotypes were present at consistent levels throughout the large intestine and were equally distributed in the stool. This is a novel tropism that may enhance dissemination both between animals and from animals to humans. The accessibility of this site may facilitate simple intervention strategies.

A previous infection with Toxoplasma gondii does not protect against a challenge with Neospora caninum in pregnant sheep

Sheep immunized with Toxoplasma gondii (Toxovax) prior to pregnancy were tested for their ability to withstand a challenge at 90 days gestation with 107 Neospora caninum (NC1) tachyzoites. The antibody responses in sheep following immunization with T. gondii were specific for T. gondii whereas peripheral blood mononuclear cells responded to both T. gondii and N. caninum antigen in vitro. This suggested that there was induction of crossreactive immune recognition in the sheep, at least at the cellular level. Following challenge of sheep at mid-gestation with N. caninum, no febrile responses were recorded in the group of sheep which had previously received Toxovax while significant febrile responses were recorded in the group of sheep which received N. caninum challenge alone. Antibody responses to N. caninum developed in all sheep following N. caninum challenge and antibody responses to T. gondii were boosted in the group of sheep which had previously been immunized with Toxovax. No antibodies to T. gondii were observed in the sheep which received the N. caninum challenge alone. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells from both groups of sheep responded to T. gondii and N. caninum antigen in vitro and interferon gamma was present in the cell-free supernatant from activated cells. However despite evidence of the induction of crossreactive immunity between T. gondii and N. caninum, this was not sufficient to prevent foetal death. The group of sheep which had received Toxovax prior to pregnancy and the group of sheep which only received the N. caninum challenge experienced 100% foetal death compared with 0% in the unchallenged control group. Vaccination prior to pregnancy with Toxovax did protect against foetal death following oral challenge at 90 days with 2000 T. gondii oocysts which caused 100% foetal death in a control challenge group.

Modulation of gammadelta T cells and CD1 in Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection

M.a. paratuberculosis is the causal agent of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease). Recent work has suggested that gammadelta T cells may play an important role in the early immunological response to mycobacterial diseases, and that CD1 may act as a non-classical MHC molecule in antigen presentation to these gammadelta T cells. Experimental infection of neonatal lambs with M.a. paratuberculosis was used to investigate the changes in gammadelta T cells and CD1 molecules in the gut associated lymphoid tissue 4 weeks after inoculation. Immunohistochemistry was used to label the gammadelta lymphocytes and CD1 molecules. An increase in the number of gammadelta T cells was noted in both the jejunal and ileal Peyer's patches in the gut of infected lambs, but no statistically significant change was found in the mesenteric lymph nodes. There were no obvious changes in the CD1 molecules in any tissue. This work suggests that gammadelta T cells may play a role in the initial immunological events of paratuberculosis infection.

Using a Bayesian belief network to aid differential diagnosis of tropical bovine diseases

The examination of presenting signs has always played an important role in the diagnosis of diseases in animal populations. In the case of diseases of tropical cattle, such expertise is often scarce and confined to those experts with many years of experience. To capture, conserve and disseminate such valuable expert knowledge remains a key challenge to the application of knowledge-based systems in veterinary medicine. In this communication, we explore the use of a Bayesian belief network to quantify expert opinion with a view to estimating the likelihood of various diseases in the presence and absence of certain signs. Information was elicited from a panel of 44 experienced veterinarians to provide the response matrix of 27 signs associated with 20 commonly occurring diseases in sub-Saharan cattle. Using this prior information, estimates of the probability of certain signs occurring with each disease were calculated from which the Bayesian belief network was able to propagate the posterior probability of each of the diseases based on the observed signs. The method as an aid in making diagnosis is discussed. It is recognised that such an approach is but one strand in the process of arriving at a diagnosis. For ease of use and accessibility, the approach has been converted into the software program CaDDiS (Cattle Disease Diagnosis System) which is available for consultation on the World Wide Web.