Prognostic Models for Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Importance

Accurate risk prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) may help clinicians risk stratify and inform care decisions.

Objective

To develop and validate a novel prediction model for clinical outcomes in patients with HFpEF using routinely collected variables and to compare it with a biomarker-driven approach.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Data were used from the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial to derive the prediction model, and data from the Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibition in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (PARAGON-HF) and the Irbesartan in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction Study (I-PRESERVE) trials were used to validate it. The outcomes were the composite of HF hospitalization (HFH) or cardiovascular death, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. A total of 30 baseline candidate variables were selected in a stepwise fashion using multivariable analyses to create the models. Data were analyzed from January 2023 to June 2023.

Exposures

Models to estimate the 1-year and 2-year risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death.

Results

Data from 6263 individuals in the DELIVER trial were used to derive the prediction model and data from 4796 individuals in the PARAGON-HF trial and 4128 individuals in the I-PRESERVE trial were used to validate it. The final prediction model for the composite outcome included 11 variables: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level, HFH within the past 6 months, creatinine level, diabetes, geographic region, HF duration, treatment with a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, transient ischemic attack/stroke, any previous HFH, and heart rate. This model showed good discrimination (C statistic at 1 year, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.75) in both validation cohorts (C statistic at 1 year, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.74 in PARAGON-HF and 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73-0.78 in I-PRESERVE) and calibration. The model showed similar discrimination to a biomarker-driven model including high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and significantly better discrimination than the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic (MAGGIC) risk score (C statistic at 1 year, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.58-0.63; delta C statistic, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.10-0.15; P < .001) and NT-proBNP level alone (C statistic at 1 year, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64-0.68; delta C statistic, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.05-0.08; P < .001). Models derived for the prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular death also performed well. An online calculator was created to allow calculation of an individual's risk.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this prognostic study, a robust prediction model for clinical outcomes in HFpEF was developed and validated using routinely collected variables. The model performed better than NT-proBNP level alone. The model may help clinicians to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment decisions in HFpEF.

Immunomodulatory drugs in sepsis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Dysregulation of the host immune response has a central role in the pathophysiology of sepsis. There has been much interest in immunomodulatory drugs as potential therapeutic adjuncts in sepsis. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials evaluating the safety and clinical effectiveness of immunomodulatory drugs as adjuncts to standard care in the treatment of adults with sepsis. Our primary outcomes were serious adverse events and all-cause mortality. Fifty-six unique, eligible randomised controlled trials were identified, assessing a range of interventions including cytokine inhibitors; anti-inflammatories; immune cell stimulators; platelet pathway inhibitors; and complement inhibitors. At 1-month follow-up, the use of cytokine inhibitors was associated with a decreased risk of serious adverse events, based on 11 studies involving 7138 patients (RR (95%CI) 0.95 (0.90-1.00), I2 = 0%). The only immunomodulatory drugs associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events were toll-like receptor 4 antagonists (RR (95%CI) 1.18 (1.04-1.34), I2 = 0% (two trials, 567 patients)). Based on 18 randomised controlled trials, involving 11,075 patients, cytokine inhibitors reduced 1-month mortality (RR (95%CI) 0.88 (0.78-0.98), I2 = 57%). Mortality reduction was also shown in the subgroup of 13 randomised controlled trials that evaluated anti-tumour necrosis factor α interventions (RR (95%CI) 0.93 (0.87-0.99), I2 = 0%). Anti-inflammatory drugs had the largest apparent effect on mortality at 2 months at any dose (two trials, 228 patients, RR (95%CI) 0.64 (0.51-0.80), I2 = 0%) and at 3 months at any dose (three trials involving 277 patients, RR (95%CI) 0.67 (0.55-0.81), I2 = 0%). These data indicate that, except for toll-like receptor 4 antagonists, there is no evidence of safety concerns for the use of immunomodulatory drugs in sepsis, and they may show some short-term mortality benefit for selected drugs.

[Intercultural adaptation of the PUKSoPC in German language : A scale for perceived control in patients with Parkinson's disease]

BACKGROUND

The level of perceived control in people with Parkinson's disease plays a significant role in affecting their quality of life. Simpson et al. developed a scale of perceived control specific to Parkinson's disease called the Parkinson's UK Scale of Perceived Control (PUKSoPC). In this work, we present a cross-culturally adapted German translation of the original English version.

METHODS

After receiving approval by the original authors, an internationally established procedure was used for cross-cultural adaptation. Firstly, the original English version was translated into German independently by two bilingual neuroscientists, who then agreed on a consensus version. This was tested on 10 people with Parkinson's disease and independently back translated into English by two different neuroscientists. After forming a consensus version, this English version was compared with the original version by all four translators. Differences between the versions resulted in modifications to the German translation so that the back translation matched the original as closely as possible. The final version was approved by two of the original authors and clinically tested on 50 people with Parkinson's disease.

RESULTS

During the translation process, the four translators agreed on a culturally adapted German version of the PUKSoPC. Testing of the final version on 50 people with Parkinson's disease did not reveal any linguistic or content-related problems.

CONCLUSION

The linguistically validated German version of the PUKSoPC presented in this paper is now freely available for measuring the levels of perceived control in people with Parkinson's disease to advance both research and clinical practice.

Anthropogenic, biogenic, and photochemical influences on surface formaldehyde and its significant decadal (2006-2017) decrease in the Lewiston-Clarkston valley of the northwestern United States

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is a key carcinogen and plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. Both field measurements and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) modeling have been employed to investigate the concentrations and sources of HCHO in the Lewiston-Clarkston (LC) valley of the mountainous northwestern U.S. Different instruments were deployed to measure surface formaldehyde and other related compounds in July of 2016 and 2017. The measurements reveal that the average HCHO concentrations have significantly decreased to 2-5 ppb in the LC valley in comparison to its levels (10-20 ppb) observed in July 2006. This discovery with surface measurements deserves attention given that satellite retrievals showed an increasing long-term trend from 2005 to 2014 in total vertical column density of HCHO in the region, suggesting that satellite instruments may not adequately resolve small valleys in the mountainous region. Our PMF modeling identified four major sources of HCHO in the valley: (1) emissions from a local paper mill, (2) secondary formation and background, (3) biogenic sources, and (4) traffic. This study reveals that the emissions from the paper mill cause high HCHO spikes (6-19 ppb) in the early morning. It is found that biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the area are influenced by national forests surrounding the region (e.g., Nez Perce-Clearwater, Umatilla, Wallowa-Whitman, and Idaho Panhandle National Forests). The results provide useful information for developing strategies to control HCHO levels and have implications for future HCHO studies in atmospheric chemistry, which affects secondary aerosols and ozone formation.

Factor structure of the Oxford Shoulder Score: secondary analyses of the UK FROST and PROFHER trial populations

AIMS

Frozen shoulder and proximal humeral fracture can cause pain, stiffness and loss of function. The impact of these symptoms on patients can be measured using the comprehensively validated, 12-item Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS). Evidence suggests that pain and function may have a differential impact on patients' experience of shoulder conditions, and this may be important for clinical management. We therefore explored the factor structure of the OSS within the UK FROST and PROFHER trial populations.

METHODS

We performed exploratory factor analysis (EFA), followed by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), on baseline UK FROST data from 490 of the 503 trial participants. Data at 6 months post-randomisation were used for 228 of the 250 participants for the PROFHER trial.

RESULTS

UK FROST factor extraction results, using Velicer's Minimum Average Partial and Horn's Parallel Analysis tests, suggested a unifactorial solution, but two factors were weakly indicated by the less reliable 'Kaiser's eigenvalue > 1' and scree tests. We explored this further using EFA. Eight items (2 to 7, 9 and 10) loaded onto a 'Function' factor, three on a 'Pain' factor (1, 8 and 12) and item 11 cross-loaded. However, one- and two-factor models were rejected in CFA. Factor extraction of PROFHER data at 6 months demonstrated a single first-order factor solution, which was also subsequently rejected in CFA.

CONCLUSION

Insufficient evidence was found, within the constraints of the data available, to support the use of 'Pain' and 'Function' sub-scales of the OSS in either patient population.

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Pilot Study of a Novel Ring Gantry-Based PET/CT Linear Accelerator in Patients with Prostate Cancer Receiving [18F]-DCFPyL for PSMA PET Imaging

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

The RefleXion X1® system is a hybrid PET imaging-radiotherapy system that uses real-time positron emissions from a PET tracer to deliver biologically guided radiotherapy (BgRT). This study (NCT05470699) evaluated the hypothesis that the X1 PET imaging subsystem would be able to detect [18F]-DCFPyL PSMA PET signal sufficient to generate a deliverable BgRT plan in patients with prostate cancer.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Patients with prostate cancer scheduled for a diagnostic [18F]-DCFPyL PSMA PET scan as part of standard of care were eligible. Upon completion of the diagnostic PSMA PET scan, images were transferred to the radiotherapy planning system for target identification and contouring. If at least one PET avid tumor lesion was identified, the patient was then scanned on the X1 unit. BgRT planning was performed on each X1 scanned patient. The target lesion volume, activity concentration (AC) and normalized target signal (NTS) were acquired. Successful and deliverable BgRT plans required that the target AC was ≥ 5 kBq/ml and NTS ≥ 2.7.

RESULTS

Twenty-six patients underwent [18F]-DCFPyL PET scans (13 with rising PSA after surgery or radiotherapy, 6 with known metastases and 7 with newly diagnosed high-risk prostate cancer). Median (range) PSA was 3.40 (0.04-122). In 16 patients a PET avid tumor was identified and contoured for planning (4 lymph nodes, 5 bone, 6 prostate gland, and 1 prostate bed). In 13 patients the target lesion was visualized on the X1 PET scan, while in 3 patients the target lesion was too close to the bladder to be clearly visualized. BgRT planning was feasible and met standard of care published SBRT organ dose constraints in 8 patients (3 prostate gland, 3 bone, 2 lymph nodes). BgRT planning was not feasible in 8 patients due to insufficient AC, low NTS or proximity of the target lesion to the PET avid bladder. The accompanying table compares median (range) target volume, AC and NTS for feasible versus not feasible plans.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to investigate the feasibility of using [18F]-DCFPyL PET imaging for BgRT plan generation on the X1 system in patients with prostate cancer. Lesions that are relevant to radiotherapy of prostate cancer can be visualized including lymph node and bone metastases. A dedicated BgRT workflow with PSMA PET imaging on the X1 at 60 minutes post injection will result in higher target AC and will optimize BgRT planning. PET avid lesions < 1 cm or close to the bladder may make BgRT planning challenging. [18F]-DCFPyL-guided BgRT is technically feasible using the RefleXion X1. BgRT using targeted PET radiopharmaceuticals to biologically guide external beam radiotherapy represents a promising new dimension in radiation oncology and warrants further investigation.

Dosimetric Plan Evaluation of Biology Guided Radiotherapy Using [18F]-DCFPyL PSMA Radiotracer in Patients with Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

The X1 system represents a cutting-edge solution in radiotherapy delivery, with its capability to perform Biology Guided Radiotherapy (BgRT). The system utilizes real-time positron emission tomography (PET) signal as biological fiducials to provide tracked dose delivery and is initially available for use with [18F]-Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG). The aim of this research study is to assess the quality of BgRT treatment plans for prostate cancer using patients' PSMA PET images obtained on the X1 system.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Sixteen patients with at least one PET-avid tumor identified on their whole-body diagnostic PSMA PET scan were selected. These patients were scanned on X1 following their diagnostic scan without additional radiotracer administration. Based on the X1 PET images, a BgRT plan was created for each patient, with the prescription dose determined by the location of treatment sites. The planning objectives of organs-at-risk (OARs) were established in accordance with the 2018 Timmerman guidelines. Target coverage objective was the dose covering 95% (D95%) of the planning target volume (PTV) to be higher than 100%. The following parameters were analyzed: PTV D95%, the minimal dose (Dmin) of gross tumor volume (GTV), plan maximum dose (Dmax), conformity index (CI), gradient index (GI), and maximum point dose (D0.03cc) to the nearest OARs. The X1 BgRT planning system also generated dose volume histogram (DVH) bounds, which model variations in BgRT delivery. The low boundary of GTV Dmin, representing the minimum GTV dose in the worst-case scenario, was recorded.

RESULTS

BgRT plans were created for all patients, except for one where the target signal was indistinguishable from the bladder. The prescription dose was 2700 cGy or 3000 cGy in 3 fractions for lymph node lesions, 2400 cGy to 3000 cGy in 3 fractions for bone metastasis, and 4500 cGy in 5 fractions for lesions in prostate. All plans met the dose constraints for OARs as per the Timmerman guidelines. The Dmax of all plans was 129.9% ± 6.9% (mean ± standard deviation). The PTV D95% and GTV Dmin were 101.7% ± 1.0% and 111.0% ± 7.6%, respectively. The low boundary of GTV Dmin was 95.9% ± 5.8%. The CI and GI were 1.22 ± 0.11 and 9.40 ± 2.12, respectively. The D0.03cc to nearest OARs was 84.6% ± 25.4%. The estimated treatment time was 699 ± 228 seconds.

CONCLUSION

This study is a pioneering effort to evaluate the quality of BgRT plans for prostate cancer patients using the [18F]-DCFPyL PSMA radiotracer. Our results showed that all BgRT plans met the planning objectives defined in the Timmerman protocol. BgRT with [18F]-DCFPyL represents a promising treatment modality for patients with prostate cancer. Further research is needed to validate this approach, including a comprehensive assessment of the dosimetric and tracking accuracy through physical measurements.

Incremental prognostic value of biomarkers in PARADIGM-HF

AIMS

It is uncertain how much candidate biomarkers improve risk prediction when added to comprehensive models including routinely collected clinical and laboratory variables in heart failure.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Aldosterone, cystatin C, high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT), galectin-3, growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), kidney injury molecule-1, matrix metalloproteinase-2 and -9, soluble suppression of tumourigenicity-2, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1) and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio were measured in 1559 of PARADIGM-HF participants. We tested whether these biomarkers, individually or collectively, improved the performance of the PREDICT-HF prognostic model, which includes clinical, routine laboratory, and natriuretic peptide data, for the primary endpoint and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The mean age of participants was 67.3 ± 9.9 years, 1254 (80.4%) were men and 1103 (71%) were in New York Heart Association class II. During a mean follow-up of 30.7 months, 300 patients experienced the primary outcome and 197 died. Added individually, only four biomarkers were independently associated with all outcomes: hs-TnT, GDF-15, cystatin C and TIMP-1. When all biomarkers were added simultaneously to the PREDICT-HF models, only hs-TnT remained an independent predictor of all three endpoints. GDF-15 also remained predictive of the primary endpoint; TIMP-1 was the only other predictor of both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Individually or in combination, these biomarkers did not lead to significant improvements in discrimination or reclassification.

CONCLUSIONS

None of the biomarkers studied individually or collectively led to a meaningful improvement in the prediction of outcomes over what is provided by clinical, routine laboratory, and natriuretic peptide variables.

Patient views on the implementation of artificial intelligence in radiotherapy

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE

To date there has been limited research looking at patient views on the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) in radiotherapy. The aim of this study is to adapt and utilise a validated patient questionnaire to develop an understanding of current patient views on the use of AI in radiotherapy.

MATERIALS/METHODS

An existing questionnaire, developed to assess understanding of patients' views on the implementation of AI in radiology, was adapted to the field of radiotherapy. The questionnaire was distributed to cancer patients receiving radiotherapy treatment between November 2021 and March 2022. Completed questionnaires were analysed to assess patient levels of positivity or negativity towards AI. Results were grouped into five factors, representing underlying patient perspectives, and correlation of factors with demographic variables was assessed.

RESULTS

In total, 95 patients participated. Overall, there was a moderately negative patient view towards the use of AI in radiotherapy. Certain factors drew a more negative response than others, for example patients desire significant personal interaction with healthcare professionals during the course of their treatment. No significant correlation was found between the demographics of age and gender and the strength of views towards the use of AI in radiotherapy.

CONCLUSION

This study has found that there are clear patient concerns around the use of AI in radiotherapy. As the use of AI in this field increases in future years, it will therefore be extremely important to educate and involve patients in the future direction of this technology.

A comprehensive study of the incremental prognostic value of novel biomarkers in PARADIGM-HF (Bio-PREDICT-HF)

Background

Although multiple novel biomarkers have individually been shown to predict outcomes in patients with HFrEF, the value of these over and above conventional clinical and laboratory variables, plus natriuretic peptides, is uncertain.

Purpose

To test the incremental predictive value of 11 novel biomarkers added to a recent prognostic model 1 (PREDICT-HF) derived in PARADIGM-HF and validated in ATMOSPHERE and the Swedish heart failure registry. The PREDICT-HF model includes clinical variables, standard laboratory variables, and BNP or NT-proBNP.

Methods

1559 participants enrolled in PARADIGM-HF had all 11 biomarkers of interest measured. These reflected different pathophysiological pathways: (i) myocyte injury (high sensitivity cardiac troponin T), (ii) cardiac remodelling and inflammation (growth stimulation expressed gene 2, growth differentiation factor-15 and galectin-3), (iii) extracellular matrix remodelling (matrix metalloproteinase-2, matrix metalloproteinase-9, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1), (iv) neurohormonal pathways (aldosterone) and (v) renal dysfunction and injury (cystatin C, kidney injury molecule-1 and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio). The incremental prognostic value of these biomarkers was evaluated using Harrell's C statistic.

Results

The mean age of participants studied was 67.3 (SD 9.9) years, 1254 (80%) were men and 1103 (71%) were in NYHA class II. During a median follow-up of 31 months, 197 patients died and 300 experienced the primary composite outcome (cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization).

When each candidate biomarker (log unit) was added individually to the PREDICT-HF base model, GDF-15, ST2, TIMP1, cystatin C, hsTnT and UACR were independent predictors of all-cause mortality (Table 1). GDF-15, TIMP1, hs-TnT and cystatin C consistently increased the risk of both all-cause mortality and the primary outcome. Individuals who had all 4 biomarkers elevated (compared to none elevated) had the highest risk: HR for all-cause mortality 3.65 (2.01–6.64), p&lt;0.0001. Adding these 4 biomarkers to the baseline PREDICT HF model improved the C statistic for all-cause mortality from 0.726 to 0.745.

Conclusion

Several novel biomarkers provide meaningful additional prognostic information in patients with HFrEF. A multimarker approach incorporating biomarkers reflecting different pathophysiological pathways added most information. This approach may be useful in refining risk and targeting treatment.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): The PARADIGM-HF trial was funded by Novartis.J.J.V.M is supported by a British Heart Foundation Centre of Excellence Grant

Temozolomide Sensitivity of Malignant Glioma Cell Lines – A Systematic Review Assessing Consistencies Between In Vitro Studies

AIMS

Malignant glioma cell line models are integral to pre-clinical testing of novel potential therapies. Accurate prediction of likely efficacy in the clinic requires that these models are reliable and consistent. We assessed this by examining the reporting of experimental conditions and sensitivity to temozolomide in glioma cells lines.

METHOD

We searched Medline and Embase (Jan 1994-Jan 2021) for studies evaluating the effect of temozolomide monotherapy on cell viability of at least one malignant glioma cell line. Key data items included type of cell lines, temozolomide exposure duration in hours (hr), and cell viability measure (IC50).

RESULTS

We included 212 studies from 2789 non-duplicate records that reported 248 distinct cell lines. The commonest cell line was U87 (60.4%). Only 10.4% studies used a patient-derived cell line. The proportion of studies not reporting each experimental condition ranged from 8.0–27.4%, including base medium (8.0%), serum supplementation (9.9%) and number of replicates (27.4%). In studies reporting IC50, the median value for U87 at 24 h, 48 h and 72 h was 123.9 μM (IQR 75.3–277.7 μM), 223.1 μM (IQR 92.0–590.1 μM) and 230.0 μM (IQR 34.1–650.0 μM), respectively. The median IC50 at 72 h for patient-derived cell lines was 220 μM (IQR 81.1–800.0 μM).

CONCLUSION

Temozolomide sensitivity reported in comparable studies was not consistent between or within malignant glioma cell lines. Drug discovery science performed on these models cannot reliably inform clinical translation. A consensus model of reporting can maximise reproducibility and consistency among in vitro studies.

Incisional hernia following colorectal cancer surgery according to suture technique: Hughes Abdominal Repair Randomized Trial (HART)

BACKGROUND

Incisional hernias cause morbidity and may require further surgery. HART (Hughes Abdominal Repair Trial) assessed the effect of an alternative suture method on the incidence of incisional hernia following colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

A pragmatic multicentre single-blind RCT allocated patients undergoing midline incision for colorectal cancer to either Hughes closure (double far-near-near-far sutures of 1 nylon suture at 2-cm intervals along the fascia combined with conventional mass closure) or the surgeon's standard closure. The primary outcome was the incidence of incisional hernia at 1 year assessed by clinical examination. An intention-to-treat analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Between August 2014 and February 2018, 802 patients were randomized to either Hughes closure (401) or the standard mass closure group (401). At 1 year after surgery, 672 patients (83.7 per cent) were included in the primary outcome analysis; 50 of 339 patients (14.8 per cent) in the Hughes group and 57 of 333 (17.1 per cent) in the standard closure group had incisional hernia (OR 0.84, 95 per cent c.i. 0.55 to 1.27; P = 0.402). At 2 years, 78 patients (28.7 per cent) in the Hughes repair group and 84 (31.8 per cent) in the standard closure group had incisional hernia (OR 0.86, 0.59 to 1.25; P = 0.429). Adverse events were similar in the two groups, apart from the rate of surgical-site infection, which was higher in the Hughes group (13.2 versus 7.7 per cent; OR 1.82, 1.14 to 2.91; P = 0.011).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of incisional hernia after colorectal cancer surgery is high. There was no statistical difference in incidence between Hughes closure and mass closure at 1 or 2 years.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN25616490 (http://www.controlled-trials.com).

Evidence of Partial Seniority Conservation in the πg_{9/2} Shell for the N=50 Isotones

The reduced transition probabilities for the 4_{1}^{+}→2_{1}^{+} and 2_{1}^{+}→0_{1}^{+} transitions in ^{92}Mo and ^{94}Ru and for the 4_{1}^{+}→2_{1}^{+} and 6_{1}^{+}→4_{1}^{+} transitions in ^{90}Zr have been determined in this experiment making use of a multinucleon transfer reaction. These results have been interpreted on the basis of realistic shell-model calculations in the f_{5/2}, p_{3/2}, p_{1/2}, and g_{9/2} proton valence space. Only the combination of extensive lifetime information and large scale shell-model calculations allowed the extent of the seniority conservation in the N=50 g_{9/2} orbital to be understood. The conclusion is that seniority is largely conserved in the first πg_{9/2} orbital.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Effect of Dapagliflozin, Compared With Placebo, According to Baseline Risk in DAPA-HF

OBJECTIVES

The authors sought to examine the effect of dapagliflozin across the spectrum of risk in patients enrolled in DAPA-HF.

BACKGROUND

In the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin And Prevention of Adverse-outcomes in Heart Failure) trial, the sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor dapagliflozin decreased the risk of worsening HF events and cardiovascular death in patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction.

METHODS

The MAGGIC (Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) and the PARADIGM-HF (Prospective comparison of ARNI with ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and morbidity in Heart Failure) PREDICT-HF (Risk of Events and Death in the Contemporary Treatment of Heart Failure) risk models were used to categorize patients according to risk score quintiles. The authors analyzed rates of the primary composite outcome of a worsening HF event or cardiovascular death, its components, and all-cause mortality according to risk quintile and whether risk modified the effect of dapagliflozin.

RESULTS

The MAGGIC score was available for 4,740 of 4,744 patients in DAPA-HF (median score 22 [IQR: 18-25]). A1-point increase was associated with an 8.2% (95% CI: 6.9%-9.4%) higher relative risk of the primary endpoint (P < 0.001). The benefit of dapagliflozin over placebo for the primary endpoint was similar across the spectrum of MAGGIC risk score (interaction P = 0.71). Applying the overall relative risk reduction (26%) with dapagliflozin added to standard therapy resulted in 7 fewer patients in the highest MAGGIC risk quintile experiencing a primary outcome, compared with 2 in the lowest quintile, per 100 person-years of treatment. The findings with PREDICT-HF were similar, although this model led to better risk discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

The benefits of dapagliflozin were consistent across the broad spectrum of baseline risk in DAPA-HF.

A Uniform Description of Perioperative Brain MRI Findings in Infants with Severe Congenital Heart Disease: Results of a European Collaboration

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

A uniform description of brain MR imaging findings in infants with severe congenital heart disease to assess risk factors, predict outcome, and compare centers is lacking. Our objective was to uniformly describe the spectrum of perioperative brain MR imaging findings in infants with congenital heart disease.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prospective observational studies were performed at 3 European centers between 2009 and 2019. Brain MR imaging was performed preoperatively and/or postoperatively in infants with transposition of the great arteries, single-ventricle physiology, or left ventricular outflow tract obstruction undergoing cardiac surgery within the first 6 weeks of life. Brain injury was assessed on T1, T2, DWI, SWI, and MRV. A subsample of images was assessed jointly to reach a consensus.

RESULTS

A total of 348 MR imaging scans (180 preoperatively, 168 postoperatively, 146 pre- and postoperatively) were obtained in 202 infants. Preoperative, new postoperative, and cumulative postoperative white matter injury was identified in 25%, 30%, and 36%; arterial ischemic stroke, in 6%, 10%, and 14%; hypoxic-ischemic watershed injury in 2%, 1%, and 1%; intraparenchymal cerebral hemorrhage, in 0%, 4%, and 5%; cerebellar hemorrhage, in 6%, 2%, and 6%; intraventricular hemorrhage, in 14%, 6%, and 13%; subdural hemorrhage, in 29%, 17%, and 29%; and cerebral sinovenous thrombosis, in 0%, 10%, and 10%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A broad spectrum of perioperative brain MR imaging findings was found in infants with severe congenital heart disease. We propose an MR imaging protocol including T1-, T2-, diffusion-, and susceptibility-weighted imaging, and MRV to identify ischemic, hemorrhagic, and thrombotic lesions observed in this patient group.

Exploring the Experiences of Members of the International Food Safety Authorities Network: An Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis

ABSTRACT

The International Food Safety Authorities Network (INFOSAN) is a global network of national food safety authorities from 190 countries, managed jointly by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) that aims to facilitate the rapid exchange of information during food safety incidents. A three-phase study of INFOSAN was launched in 2019 to characterize and examine the network as a functional community of practice and determine its value systematically and rigorously from its members' perspectives. The first two phases of the study involved analyzing the INFOSAN Community Website and surveying of all of its members. The main objective of this third and final phase of the study was to understand the experiences of a small group of INFOSAN members as they relate to various dimensions of membership. A qualitative methodology was used to provide a deeper understanding of members' experiences and supplement the results from the first two quantitative study phases. Interviews were conducted with 10 INFOSAN members from 10 geographic regions, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. The results offer an understanding of INFOSAN members' experiences in the context of what participation in this global network means to them and relate to five themes concerning trust, learning, health protection, sense of community, and future potential. The findings suggest that focusing on outreach to sustain personal interest, training to improve technical capacity, and advocacy to obtain political buy-in are ways in which the INFOSAN Secretariat could enable participation and create value at the individual, organizational, and national level, respectively. Such engagement could translate into more effective international communication during urgent food safety incidents and fewer cases of foodborne illness worldwide.

HIGHLIGHTS

Head-to-head comparison of contemporary heart failure risk scores

AIMS

Several heart failure (HF) web-based risk scores are currently used in clinical practice. Currently, we lack head-to-head comparison of the accuracy of risk scores. This study aimed to assess correlation and mortality prediction performance of Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC-HF) risk score, which includes clinical variables + medications; Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), which includes clinical variables + treatments + analytes; PARADIGM Risk of Events and Death in the Contemporary Treatment of Heart Failure (PREDICT-HF) and Barcelona Bio-Heart Failure (BCN-Bio-HF) risk calculator, which also include biomarkers, like N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 1166 consecutive patients with HF from different aetiologies that had NT-proBNP measurement at first visit were included. Discrimination for all-cause mortality was compared by Harrell's C-statistic from 1 to 5 years, when possible. Calibration was assessed by calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow test and global performance by Nagelkerke's R² . Correlation between scores was assessed by Spearman rank test. Correlation between the scores was relatively poor (rho value from 0.66 to 0.79). Discrimination analyses showed better results for 1-year mortality than for longer follow-up (SHFM 0.817, MAGGIC-HF 0.801, PREDICT-HF 0.799, BCN-Bio-HF 0.830). MAGGIC-HF showed the best calibration, BCN-Bio-HF overestimated risk while SHFM and PREDICT-HF underestimated it. BCN-Bio-HF provided the best discrimination and overall performance at every time-point.

CONCLUSIONS

None of the contemporary risk scores examined showed a clear superiority over the rest. BCN-Bio-HF calculator provided the best discrimination and overall performance with overestimation of risk. MAGGIC-HF showed the best calibration, and SHFM and PREDICT-HF tended to underestimate risk. Regular updating and recalibration of online web calculators seems necessary to improve their accuracy as HF management evolves at unprecedented pace.

Winning hearts and minds: ECG reporting in the first seizure clinic

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

An electrocardiogram (ECG) is a mandatory test for anyone presenting with loss of consciousness. Many referrals to the first seizure clinic (FSC) are caused by syncope. We assessed the sensitivity of neurologists' ECG reporting in detecting rhythm abnormalities including some potentially life-threatening cardiac conditions.

METHODS

We audited patients referred to a FSC in Glasgow over 4 years. All ECGs were interpreted by the attending neurologist as standard practice. Subsequently, two cardiologists reviewed the ECGs independently.

RESULTS

Of 160 consecutive patients, 92 patients (58%) were diagnosed as having seizures, 43 (27%) as syncope, and 25 (16%) were unclassified. Twenty eight ECGs thought to be normal by the neurologist were considered abnormal by the cardiologist, including three with long corrected QT interval. The proportion of abnormal ECGs and disparity in reporting between neurologists and cardiologists persisted independent of the underlying diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

Reporting of ECGs by non-cardiologists may not be adequately sensitive in picking up potentially life threatening cardiac conditions. Cardiologist input into FSCs is recommended to enhance the diagnostic yield.

57 Physical Activity Improvement in Elderly Hospitalised Patients at the Royal London: Exercise as Part of A Multimodal Intervention

Introduction

Approximately 65% of elderly patients admitted to hospital experience some level of deconditioning during their stay. This can lead to longer length of stays, premature admissions to care homes and loss of function whilst in hospital (British Geriatrics Society). There is evidence that exercise can be safe and effective in reversing functional decline in this population. However, there is limited evidence into the effectiveness and feasibility of running a multi modal exercise intervention (eg. Dance and Exercise) on a busy elderly care ward in the UK.

Method

An 8-week inpatient programme consisting of a 60-minute exercise classes once a week and/or 60-minute dance class once a week started on the Older Person’s Wards at the Royal London. Primary outcome measures included: 5 x Sit To Stands (5xSTS) and Falls Efficacy Scale International (FES-I). Secondary measures; Rockwood score, Barthel Index, Elderly Mobility Score (EMS), Mood, 4AT and handgrip strength. Patient satisfaction scores were also recorded.

Results

23 patients were included in the analysis, 3 patients attended the dance class, 14 attended the exercise class and 5 attended both. In total 37 sessions were completed. The average score for all outcome measures improved except one after 8 weeks. The 5xSTS times improved by an average of 7.7 seconds and the FES-I score dropped by 3.9. The Barthel score increased by 5 points. Handgrip strength increased by 2.3 kg and 57% improved on their EMS. Mood improved from 5.4/10 to 6.0/10 and 4AT from 2.7 to 1.7. Overall, 70% of participants reported enjoying the classes and 90% said they would re-attend.

Conclusion

A multifactorial intervention including seated dance and exercise sessions showed significant improvements in mobility, fear of falling, cognition and functional tasks. Further work will look into the impact on length of stay and readmissions inpatient to hospital.

Prognostic Models Derived in PARADIGM-HF and Validated in ATMOSPHERE and the Swedish Heart Failure Registry to Predict Mortality and Morbidity in Chronic Heart Failure

Importance

Accurate prediction of risk of death or hospitalizations in patients with heart failure (HF) may allow physicians to explore how more accurate decisions regarding appropriateness and timing of disease-modifying treatments, advanced therapies, or the need for end-of-life care can be made.

Objective

To develop and validate a prognostic model for patients with HF.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Multivariable analyses were performed in a stepwise fashion. Harrell C statistic was used to assess the discriminative ability. The derivation cohort was Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure trial (PARADIGM-HF) participants. The models were validated using the Aliskiren Trial to Minimize Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure Trial (ATMOSPHERE) study and in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry (SwedeHF). A total of 8399 participants enrolled in PARADIGM-HF. Data were analyzed between June 2016 and June 2018.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, and the composite of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization at both 1 and 2 years.

Results

Complete baseline clinical data were available for 8011 patients in PARADIGM-HF. The mean (SD) age of participants was 64 (11.4) years, 78.2% were men (n = 6567 of 8399), and 70.6% were New York Heart Association class II (n = 5919 of 8399). During a mean follow-up of 27 months, 1546 patients died, and 2031 had a cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization. The common variables were: male sex, race/ethnicity (black or Asian), region (Central Europe or Latin America), HF duration of more than 5 years, New York Heart Association class III/ IV, left ventricular ejection fraction, diabetes mellitus, β-blocker use at baseline, and allocation to sacubitril/valsartan. Ranked by χ2, N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide was the single most powerful independent predictor of each outcome. The C statistic at 1 and 2 years was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73) for the primary composite end point, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.75) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.73) for cardiovascular death, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) for all-cause death, respectively. When validated in ATMOSPHERE, the C statistic at 1 and 2 years was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.71) for the primary composite end point, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) for cardiovascular death, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.72) for all-cause death, respectively. An online calculator was created to allow calculation of an individual's risk (http://www.predict-hf.com).

Conclusions and Relevance

Predictive models performed well and were developed and externally validated in large cohorts of geographically representative patients, comprehensively characterized with clinical and laboratory data including natriuretic peptides, who were receiving contemporary evidence-based treatment.

Factors Influencing Carbon Stocks and Accumulation Rates in Eelgrass Meadows Across New England, USA

Increasing the protection of coastal vegetated ecosystems has been suggested as one strategy to compensate for increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere as the capacity of these habitats to sequester and store carbon exceeds that of terrestrial habitats. Seagrasses are a group of foundation species that grow in shallow coastal and estuarine systems and have an exceptional ability to sequester and store large quantities of carbon in biomass and, particularly, in sediments. However, carbon stocks (C_org stocks) and carbon accumulation rates (C_org accumulation) in seagrass meadows are highly variable both spatially and temporally, making it difficult to extrapolate this strategy to areas where information is lacking. In this study, C_org stocks and C_org accumulation were determined at 11 eelgrass meadows across New England, representing a range of eutrophication and exposure conditions. In addition, the environmental factors and structural characteristics of meadows related to variation in C_org stocks were identified. The objectives were accomplished by assessing stable isotopes of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N as well as %C and %N in plant tissues and sediments, measuring grain size and ²¹⁰Pb of sediment cores, and through assessing site exposure. Variability in C_org stocks in seagrass meadows is well predicted using commonly measured environmental variables such as grain size distribution. This study allows incorporation of data and insights for the northwest Atlantic, where few studies on carbon sequestration by seagrasses have been conducted.

High sensitivity troponin I in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Background

ESC guidelines recommend measurement of troponin T in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) because high concentrations are associated with cardiovascular events, heart failure and death. The cardiac Troponin I subunit is not expressed in skeletal muscle making it a cardio-specific isoform. The use of troponin biomarkers in management of patients HCM is limited because concentrations only weakly correlate with clinical parameters. Most studies are small, and few have examined their relation with genotype and mortality.

Purpose

To assess the relationship between high-sensitive troponin I (hsTnI) and characteristics of adults with HCM.

Methods

Patients included were adults with an established diagnosis of HCM referred to a single centre for genetic testing. Demographic, clinical and imaging data were recorded at baseline. Echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) were performed according to EACVI standards. Quantification of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) was performed using the 5 SD quantitative threshold. Genotype was evaluated using a 16 gene panel in an accredited UK laboratory. Pathogenic and likely pathogenic variants were considered as a positive genotype. Serum hsTnI was measured by a two-site electrochemiluminescence immunoassay on a Roche E170 analyser. Normal values for the assay 0–34 ng/L for males and 0–16 ng/L for females.

Results

313 patients (n=200, 64% male) median age 57 (IQR 47–68) years were included. hsTnI concentration was abnormal in 69 (22%) patients. An abnormal hsTnI was more common in females (n=36, 32%) compared to males (n=33, 17%, c2 9.9, p&lt;0.05). A pathogenic variant in a sarcomere gene was identified in 95 (30%) individuals. An abnormal hsTnI concentration was associated with higher left ventricular (LV) wall thickness (20mm v 18mm, p&lt;0.05) and LV outflow tract (LVOT) gradient (34 v 22 mmHg) on echocardiography (n=313). Of the patients (n=204) who had a CMR, an abnormal hsTnI concentration was associated with higher LV mass (183 v 156g, p&lt;0.05) and greater % LGE (30 v 16%, p&lt;0.01, n=129). There was no difference in hsTnI between those with a positive or negative genotype. During follow-up, 18 patients died. Of the 9 patients that died with a normal hsTnI, two died suddenly.

Conclusions

In HCM, patients with abnormal hsTnI concentration have higher LV mass and LVOT gradient and more fibrosis. Whilst mortality is higher in those with abnormal hsTnI, sudden cardiac death may occur with a normal hsTnI. It may not be appropriate to extrapolate hsTnI sex-specific thresholds used in the diagnosis of myocardial infarction to HCM.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%).

RESULTS

After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707.

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%).

RESULTS

After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707.

Adherence to prescribed medications in patients with heart failure: insights from liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry-based urine analysis

AIMS

None of the existing studies on adherence have directly measured levels of all medications (or their metabolites) in patients with heart failure (HF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to measure the presence of prescribed drugs (diuretics, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, beta-blockers, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists) in the urine of patients reviewed 4-6 weeks after hospitalization with HF. Patients were unaware that adherence was being assessed. Of the 341 patients studied, 281 (82.4%) were adherent, i.e. had all prescribed drugs of interest detectable in their urine. Conversely, 60 patients (17.6%) were partially or completely non-adherent. Notably, 24 of the 60 were non-adherent to only diuretic therapy and only seven out of all 341 patients studied (2.1%) were completely non-adherent to all prescribed HF drugs. There were no major differences in baseline characteristics between adherent and non-adherent patients.

CONCLUSION

Non-adherence, assessed using a single spot urine measurement of drug levels, was confirmed in one of five patients evaluated 4-6 weeks after hospitalization with HF.

A 'hot clinic' for cold limbs: the benefit of urgent clinics for patients with critical limb ischaemia

INTRODUCTION

The national reconfiguration of vascular surgery means that arterial centres serve larger populations with increased demand on resources. Emergency general surgery ambulatory clinics facilitate timely review and intervention, avoiding admission; a critical limb ischaemia (CLI) 'hot clinic' (HC) was implemented to achieve similar for vascular patients. The aim of the study was to determine HC efficacy.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study comparing HC patients with emergency admission (EA) patients between 1 May and 1 December 2017. Age, sex, comorbidities, CLI severity and smoking status were noted. HC patients were provided with satisfaction surveys. Primary outcome measures were freedom from reintervention and major amputation. Secondary outcome measures included time to procedure, length of stay, returns to theatre and 30-day readmission.

RESULTS

A total of 147 patients (72 HC, 75 EA) were enrolled in the study. No statistical difference was found in age, sex, smoking status, severity of CLI or prevalence of comorbidities between the groups except that diabetes was more prevalent in EA patients (p=0.028). The median length of stay for the HC cohort was shorter (3 days vs 17 days, p<0.001), with no difference between time to procedure, return to theatre or 30-day readmission. HC patients were nearly 6 times more likely to experience freedom from reintervention (odds ratio: 5.824, p<0.001) and 2.5 times less likely to undergo amputation (odds ratio: 2.616, p=0.043). HC utilisation saved a total of 441 bed days. Over 90% of attendees responded with 100% positive feedback.

CONCLUSIONS

A vascular HC facilitates urgent review and revascularisation. It provides comparable in-hospital outcomes and better long-term outcomes, with greater efficiency than hospital admission, demonstrating its value in treating CLI.

Isospin Properties of Nuclear Pair Correlations from the Level Structure of the Self-Conjugate Nucleus ^{88}Ru

The low-lying energy spectrum of the extremely neutron-deficient self-conjugate (N=Z) nuclide _{44}^{88}Ru_{44} has been measured using the combination of the Advanced Gamma Tracking Array (AGATA) spectrometer, the NEDA and Neutron Wall neutron detector arrays, and the DIAMANT charged particle detector array. Excited states in ^{88}Ru were populated via the ^{54}Fe(^{36}Ar,2nγ)^{88}Ru^{*} fusion-evaporation reaction at the Grand Accélérateur National d'Ions Lourds (GANIL) accelerator complex. The observed γ-ray cascade is assigned to ^{88}Ru using clean prompt γ-γ-2-neutron coincidences in anticoincidence with the detection of charged particles, confirming and extending the previously assigned sequence of low-lying excited states. It is consistent with a moderately deformed rotating system exhibiting a band crossing at a rotational frequency that is significantly higher than standard theoretical predictions with isovector pairing, as well as observations in neighboring N>Z nuclides. The direct observation of such a "delayed" rotational alignment in a deformed N=Z nucleus is in agreement with theoretical predictions related to the presence of strong isoscalar neutron-proton pair correlations.

9 The ‘Colchester Older Persons’ Evaluation for Surgery (COPES)’ Clinic: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Preoperative Management of Frail, Older Patients

Introduction

In 2014-15, 2.5 million patients over 75 years old underwent surgery compared to 1.5 million in 2006-7. The population is aging with increasing numbers of comorbidities, and associated frailty.1 The Royal College of Anaesthetists recommends that preoperative assessment for these complex older patients takes a “cross-specialty approach.”2 In Colchester the COPES clinic has been introduced in which selected high-risk patients are seen by a Consultant Anaesthetist and Consultant Geriatrician. This aims to medically optimise patients prior to surgery and to facilitate shared decision making.

Methods

The new clinic was introduced in October 2018. The following data was collected from COPES clinic letters from October to February 2018-19 (n=46):Patient/ surgery characteristics: age, comorbidities, frailty score and any cognitive impairmentInterventions: changes to medication, specialty referral, intravenous iron, diabetes optimisation, otherOutcomes of surgery following the COPES clinic

Patients were asked to complete feedback forms to evaluate the service.

Results

52% of patients had 4-6, and 28% had 7-9 comorbidities. The majority had Rockwood frailty scores of 4 or 5. 28% of patients had medications changed, 48% had specialty referrals, 17% received intravenous iron, 8.7% required diabetes optimisation and 28% of patients had investigations including echocardiograms, MRI and CT scans. 12/46 patients had surgery deemed unlikely to go ahead after shared decision making with patients in conjunction with the multidisciplinary team involved in their care. 2 patients died of their comorbidities after deciding not to proceed with surgery. 12/46 patients underwent surgery; 4 developed post-operative complications, none died and the mean length of stay was 3.38 days. The remaining 22/46 patients are awaiting surgery. Patient feedback questionnaires (n=10) were overwhelmingly positive. Everyone felt that they were treated with respect and that their fears were addressed and they were clear in the next steps in management.

Conclusions

The introduction of the ‘COPES’ clinic has helped address frailty and multiple comorbidities by optimising patients’ medical conditions and allowing alternatives to surgery to be considered. Patients were very satisfied with the COPES clinic and felt it has prepared them for upcoming surgery.

References

1. Lin H. Frailty and post-operative outcomes in older surgical patients: a systematic review. BMC Geriatrics, 2016.

2. RCoA. Guidelines for the Provision of Anaesthesia Services. www.pre-op.org/sites/default/files/GPAS%202016.pdf

Targeting of early endosomes by autophagy facilitates EGFR recycling and signalling

Despite recently uncovered connections between autophagy and the endocytic pathway, the role of autophagy in regulating endosomal function remains incompletely understood. Here, we find that the ablation of autophagy-essential players disrupts EGF-induced endocytic trafficking of EGFR. Cells lacking ATG7 or ATG16L1 exhibit increased levels of phosphatidylinositol-3-phosphate (PI(3)P), a key determinant of early endosome maturation. Increased PI(3)P levels are associated with an accumulation of EEA1-positive endosomes where EGFR trafficking is stalled. Aberrant early endosomes are recognised by the autophagy machinery in a TBK1- and Gal8-dependent manner and are delivered to LAMP2-positive lysosomes. Preventing this homeostatic regulation of early endosomes by autophagy reduces EGFR recycling to the plasma membrane and compromises downstream signalling and cell survival. Our findings uncover a novel role for the autophagy machinery in maintaining early endosome function and growth factor sensing.

P05.06 Phase 2 study to evaluate the safety, pharmacokinetics and clinical activity of PI3K/mTOR inhibitor GDC-0084 given to glioblastoma (GBM) patients with unmethylated O6-methylguanine-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter status

BACKGROUND

GDC-0084 is a potent, oral, selective small molecule inhibitor of class I phosphoinositide 3-kinase and mammalian target of rapamycin (PI3K/mTOR). The PI3K pathway is activated in ≥ 70% of tumors, making it a compelling target for the treatment of GBM. GDC-0084 crosses the blood-brain barrier and achieves a brain / plasma ratio of approximately 1.0. GDC-0084 was given as once daily oral dosing in a phase 1 study (Wen et al, J Clin Oncol 34, 2016(15) suppl.2012) in 47 patients with recurrent high-grade gliomas. The adverse events were generally consistent with the established PI3K/mTOR inhibitor class-effects. The MTD identified was 45 mg once daily.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study has a 2-part design consisting of an open-label, multicenter dose-escalation study with expansion to assess the safety, tolerability, RP2D, PK, and clinical activity of GDC-0084 at QD dosing in patients with newly-diagnosed GBM with unmethylated MGMT promotor status. In the escalation phase the first cohort is completed without DLT. At the identified MTD, 20 subjects will be recruited in an expansion cohort and patients will be randomized to take GDC-0084 in fed and fasted states. Subjects in the expansion cohort will also have serial fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) imaging.

Invasive Versus Medical Management in Patients With Prior Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery With a Non-ST Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

The benefits of routine invasive management in patients with prior coronary artery bypass grafts presenting with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes are uncertain because these patients were excluded from pivotal trials.

Outcomes and Effect of Treatment According to Etiology in HFrEF: An Analysis of PARADIGM-HF

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to compare outcomes (and the effect of sacubitril/valsartan) according to etiology in the PARADIGM-HF (Prospective comparison of angiotensin-receptor-neprilysin inhibitor [ARNI] with angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor [ACEI] to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and morbidity in Heart Failure) trial.

BACKGROUND

Etiology of heart failure (HF) has changed over time in more developed countries and is also evolving in non-Western societies. Outcomes may vary according to etiology, as may the effects of therapy.

METHODS

We examined outcomes and the effect of sacubtril/valsartan according to investigator-reported etiology in PARADIGM-HF. The outcomes analyzed were the primary composite of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization, and components, and death from any cause. Outcomes were adjusted for known prognostic variables including N terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide.

RESULTS

Among the 8,399 patients randomized, 5,036 patients (60.0%) had an ischemic etiology. Among the 3,363 patients (40.0%) with a nonischemic etiology, 1,595 (19.0% of all patients; 47% of nonischemic patients) had idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, 968 (11.5% of all patients; 28.8% of nonischemic patients) had a hypertensive cause, and 800 (9.5% of all patients, 23.8% of nonischemic patients) another cause (185 infective/viral, 158 alcoholic, 110 valvular, 66 diabetes, 30 drug-related, 14 peripartum-related, and 237 other). Whereas the unadjusted rates of all outcomes were highest in patients with an ischemic etiology, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were not different from patients in the 2 major nonischemic etiology categories; for example, for the primary outcome, compared with ischemic (HR: 1.00), hypertensive 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75 to 1.02), idiopathic 0.92 (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.04) and other 1.00 (95% CI: 0.85 to 1.17). The benefit of sacubitril/valsartan over enalapril was consistent across etiologic categories (interaction for primary outcome; p = 0.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Just under one-half of patients in this global trial had nonischemic HF with reduced ejection fraction, with idiopathic and hypertensive the most commonly ascribed etiologies. Adjusted outcomes were similar across etiologic categories, as was the benefit of sacubitril/valsartan over enalapril. (Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Enalapril on Morbidity and Mortality of Patients With Chronic Heart Failure; NCT01035255).

A massive core for a cluster of galaxies at a redshift of 4.3

Massive galaxy clusters have been found that date to times as early as three billion years after the Big Bang, containing stars that formed at even earlier epochs^1-3. The high-redshift progenitors of these galaxy clusters-termed 'protoclusters'-can be identified in cosmological simulations that have the highest overdensities (greater-than-average densities) of dark matter^4-6. Protoclusters are expected to contain extremely massive galaxies that can be observed as luminous starbursts ⁷ . However, recent detections of possible protoclusters hosting such starbursts^8-11 do not support the kind of rapid cluster-core formation expected from simulations ¹² : the structures observed contain only a handful of starbursting galaxies spread throughout a broad region, with poor evidence for eventual collapse into a protocluster. Here we report observations of carbon monoxide and ionized carbon emission from the source SPT2349-56. We find that this source consists of at least 14 gas-rich galaxies, all lying at redshifts of 4.31. We demonstrate that each of these galaxies is forming stars between 50 and 1,000 times more quickly than our own Milky Way, and that all are located within a projected region that is only around 130 kiloparsecs in diameter. This galaxy surface density is more than ten times the average blank-field value (integrated over all redshifts), and more than 1,000 times the average field volume density. The velocity dispersion (approximately 410 kilometres per second) of these galaxies and the enormous gas and star-formation densities suggest that this system represents the core of a cluster of galaxies that was already at an advanced stage of formation when the Universe was only 1.4 billion years old. A comparison with other known protoclusters at high redshifts shows that SPT2349-56 could be building one of the most massive structures in the Universe today.

Short-Term Hemodynamic Effects of Apelin in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

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The effects of apelin on pulmonary hemodynamics in patients with PAH are unknown.

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Systemic infusion caused a significant reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance and increase in cardiac output without a change in heart rate or systemic vascular resistance.

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This effect was most prominent in the subgroup of patients receiving concomitant PDE5 inhibition.

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Apelin agonism is a novel potential therapeutic target for PAH.

Apelin agonism causes systemic vasodilatation and increased cardiac contractility in humans, and improves pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) in animal models. Here, the authors examined the short-term pulmonary hemodynamic effects of systemic apelin infusion in patients with PAH. In a double-blind randomized crossover study, 19 patients with PAH received intravenous (Pyr¹)apelin-13 and matched saline placebo during invasive right heart catheterization. (Pyr¹)apelin-13 infusion caused a reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance and increased cardiac output. This effect was accentuated in the subgroup of patients receiving concomitant phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibition. Apelin agonism is a novel potential therapeutic target for PAH. (Effects of Apelin on the Lung Circulation in Pulmonary Hypertension; NCT01457170)