In vitro comparison of the accuracy (precision and trueness) of eight dental scanners for dental bridge scanning

BACKGROUND

Dental scanners play a critical role in computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing technology. This study aimed to compare the accuracy (precision and trueness) of eight dental scanners for dental bridge scanning.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this in-vitro experimental study, a typodont model with a missing maxillary right first molar was prepared for a 3-unit fixed partial denture. Each scanner (Sirona inEos inLab, Sirona X5, Dentium, Imes icore 350I I3D, Amann Girrbach map 100, 3Shape D100, 3Shape E3) performed seven scans of the typodont, and the data were analyzed using 3D-Tool software. The abutment length, abutment width, arch length, and interdental distance were measured. To assess the accuracy of each scanner, trueness was evaluated by superimposing the scanned data on true values obtained by the 3shape Triosscanner as the reference. Precision was evaluated by superimposing a pair of data sets obtained from the same scanner. Precision and trueness of the scanners were compared using the one-way ANOVA followed by the post-hoc Tukey's HSD test and one-sample t-test (P<0.05 was considerer significant).

RESULTS

The precision of scanners ranged from 14 μm (3Shape Trios) to 45 μm (Imes icore 350i), whereas the trueness ranged from 38 μm (3Shape d700) to 71 μm (Sirona X5).

CONCLUSION

The reported trueness values for 3Shape Trios, Sirona inEos inLab, Sirona x5, Dentium, Imes icore350i, Amann Girrbach, 3Shape d700, and 3Shape e3 were 63, 45, 71, 67, 70, 53, 38, and 42 μm, respectively, whereas the precision values were 14, 29, 44, 34, 45, 44, 30 and 28 μm, respectively.

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.

METHODS

GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older.

INTERPRETATION

Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.

METHODS

Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.

RESULTS

For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.

RESULTS

Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.

CONCLUSIONS

While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

BACKGROUND

Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs.

FINDINGS

Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The accuracy of white blood cell count in the diagnosis of acute appendicitis using age-sex-adjusted receiver operating characteristic approach

Background: White blood cell (WBC) counts are commonly used for the diagnosis of acute appendicitis in the early stages of pain. However, the effect of certain confounders, particularly age and sex, has been less focused. The purpose of this study was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of white blood cells in the prediction of acute appendicitis using age-sex-adjusted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Methods: In this cross sectional study, 131 patients who had undergone appendectomy were studied during 2010-2011. Patients were placed in the normal appendix and acute appendicitis groups. ROC regression was used to identify the effects of the variables of age and sex on the diagnostic accuracy of WBCs using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Statistical analysis was conducted in Stata 12 software. Results: In ROC regression method, the AUC for the variable of WBC was 0.643 (95% CI: 0.555-0.725) without adjustment for age and sex variables, 0.672 (0.584-0.751) with an age-adjusted variable, 0.698 (0.612-0.775) with a sex-adjusted variable, and 0.710 (0.624-0.786) with both age-sex adjusted variables. Conclusion: Results indicated that age-sex adjusted variables increased the diagnostic accuracy of the WBC test for predicting acute appendicitis using ROC regression method for the WBC test.

Histological assessment of the effects of teriparatide therapy on mandibular fracture healing: A preclinical study

OBJECTIVE

This study was performed to evaluate the effects of teriparatide therapy on mandibular fracture healing in a rat model.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

A unilateral mandibular fracture, 5 mm posterior to the last molar tooth, was surgically created in 120 rats. Half of the animals received a daily subcutaneous injection of 2 μg/kg teriparatide while the control rats received normal saline, starting from the day of surgery until sacrifice. Twenty rats from each group were sacrificed on postoperative days 10, 20, and 30. The healing process was evaluated histologically and scored using a grading system (ranging from 1 to 10).

RESULTS

On day 10 the fracture gaps of the control and teriparatide groups were mainly filled with fibrous tissue and new trabecular bone, respectively. On day 20 a large amount of new trabecular bone and some areas of fibrocartilaginous tissue were seen in the fracture gaps of the control rats. In the teriparatide group the fracture area was entirely filled with trabecular bone, which in some areas had been replaced by mature bone. On day 30 the fracture gaps of the control group were entirely bridged by new trabecular bone, while in the teriparatide group they was predominantly filled with mature bone. At all three time-points the mean healing scores for the teriparatide group (6.20 ± 0.70, 8.50 ± 0.69, and 9.85 ± 0.37, respectively) were significantly higher (p < 0.001) than for the control group (4.90 ± 0.55, 7.15 ± 0.59, and 8.90 ± 0.64, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of this study, teriparatide should be tested in humans in order to establish whether comparable results can be achieved.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.

METHODS

We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.

FINDINGS

Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.

INTERPRETATION

Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Histological evaluation of the healing process of autografted mandibular bone defects in rats under treatment with zoledronate

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate the healing process of autografted mandibular bone defects in rats treated with zoledronate (ZOL).

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

A total of 180 Wistar rats were divided into four groups: group L received intravenous infusion of two doses of 0.06 mg/kg ZOL, nine weeks apart; group H received 0.06 mg/kg ZOL, while groups C and NC received normal saline at three-week intervals for nine weeks. Three weeks following the last infusion, a unilateral mandibular bone defect (5 mm) was created. Except in the NC group, all defects were repaired with autologous iliac bone graft. Fifteen animals from each group were sacrificed on postoperative Day 20, Day 40, and Day 60. Graft healing was scored using a histological grading system (ranging from 1 to 6).

RESULTS

Histological evaluations performed on postoperative Day 60 showed that the mandibular defects were mainly repaired with fibrous tissue in the NC and H groups (93.00% ± 7.51% and 82.67% ± 13.08%, respectively) and with bone in the C and L groups (75.33% ± 14.20% and 92.67% ± 8.84%, respectively). The percentage of fibrous tissue and bone as well as the healing score of the NC and H groups were significantly different (P = 0.001) from those of the C and L groups. However, these were not different between neither the NC and H groups nor the C and L groups.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of the present study the hypothesis can be established that there also might be a dose-dependent effect of ZOL on the healing of bone grafts in humans. This hypothesis has to be verified or rejected in clinical trials.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Skin Cancer Preventive Behaviors in Iranian Farmers: Applying Protection Motivation Theory

Farmers are among the most common work groups at risk of skin cancer. The protection motivation theory has been widely accepted as a framework for predicting health related behaviors. This study was conducted to determine the role of factors preventing skin cancer among farmers in Eslamabad-e Gharb district, Iran, using the protection motivation theory. In this descriptive study, 280 farmers living in this district were studied from May to June 2017. Using cluster random sampling methods, health houses where farmers received health care were selected. Each farmer within the selected health house was then enrolled into the study using simple random sampling. Data were collected by interview using an author-developed questionnaire. The questionnaire ascertained demographic information and constructs of the protection motivation theory. Almost half of the farmers had a history of sunburn (56.4%). With regard to prevention, a small proportion reported using sunscreen (8.6%), hats (3.2%), gloves 3.9%, sunglasses 4.6%, and protective clothing 15.4%. The results of regression analyses showed that with one unit of increase in the scores of self-efficacy to adopt prevention behavior and perceived protection motivation resulted in an increase in the mean score of the "protective" behavior by 0.26 and 0.20, respectively. Working conditions among farmers place them at great risk and skin cancer prevention is essential. Intervention and prevention programs should fully identify the determinants of skin cancer prevention in farmers; in addition, the identified effective factors must be taken into account when designing and implementing appropriate interventions.

Does zoledronate therapy make mandibular bone susceptible to fracture? A radiographical and biomechanical study in rats

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of zoledronate therapy on susceptibility of mandibular bone to fracture in rats.

METHODS

Fifty rats were randomly allocated to two groups of 25 animals. The rats in group Z received monthly intravenous infusion of 0.06 mg/kg zoledronate for 6 months. The rats in the group C were injected with an equal volume of saline in the same manner. A month after the last zoledronate/saline administration, all 50 rats were euthanized. Using a cone beam computed tomography, the cortical thickness of inferior border of mandible and the mandibular bone mineral density were calculated, and using a three-point bending test, the peak load failure and the ultimate stress of mandibular bone were determined.

RESULTS

The mean mandibular inferior cortical bone thickness and the mean bone mineral density were significantly larger in zoledronate-treated rats (0.30 ± 0.02 mm and 1045.00 ± 185.79, respectively) compared to control rats (0.21 ± 0.01 mm and 878.66 ± 166.53, respectively). The peak load and the ultimate stress were lower in the zoledronate-treated hemimandibles (84.61 ± 33.62 N and 1.76 ± 0.72 MPa, respectively) compared to the control hemimandibles (98.36 ± 16.5 9 N and 2.03 ± 0.44 MPa, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Zoledronate therapy reduced the mechanical strength of the mandibles, implying an increased risk of mandibular fracture in rats.

Prediction of Depression in Cancer Patients With Different Classification Criteria, Linear Discriminant Analysis versus Logistic Regression

Background:

Logistic regression (LR) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) are two popular statistical models for prediction of group membership. Although they are very similar, the LDA makes more assumptions about the data. When categorical and continuous variables used simultaneously, the optimal choice between the two models is questionable. In most studies, classification error (CE) is used to discriminate between subjects in several groups, but this index is not suitable to predict the accuracy of the outcome. The present study compared LR and LDA models using classification indices.

Methods:

This cross-sectional study selected 243 cancer patients. Sample sets of different sizes (n = 50, 100, 150, 200, 220) were randomly selected and the CE, B, and Q classification indices were calculated by the LR and LDA models.

Results:

CE revealed the a lack of superiority for one model over the other, but the results showed that LR performed better than LDA for the B and Q indices in all situations. No significant effect for sample size on CE was noted for selection of an optimal model. Assessment of the accuracy of prediction of real data indicated that the B and Q indices are appropriate for selection of an optimal model.

Conclusion:

The results of this study showed that LR performs better in some cases and LDA in others when based on CE. The CE index is not appropriate for classification, although the B and Q indices performed better and offered more efficient criteria for comparison and discrimination between groups.

The Diagnostic Value of Surface Markers in Acute Appendicitis; A Diagnostic Accuracy Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the diagnostic value of blood cells surface markers in patients with acute appendicitis.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, 71 patients who underwent appendectomy following a diagnosis of appendicitis were recruited during a one-year period. The patients were divided into two groups: patients with histopathologically confirmed acute appendicitis and subjects with normal appendix. Blood cell surface markers of all patients were measured. Univariate and multivariate analytical methods were applied to identify the most useful markers. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were also used to find the best cut-off point, sensitivity, and specificity.

RESULTS

Overall we included 71 patients with mean age of 22.6±10.7 years. Of the 71 cases, 45 (63.4%) had acute appendicitis while 26 (36.6%) were normal. There was no significant difference between two study groups regarding the age (p=0.151) and sex (p=0.142). The initial WBC count was significantly higher in those with acute appendicitis (p=0.033). Maximum and minimum area under the ROC curve in univariate analysis was reported for CD3/RA (0.71) and CD38 (0.533), respectively. Multivariate regression models revealed the percentage of accurate diagnoses based on the combination of γ/δ TCR, CD3/RO, and CD3/RA markers to be 74.65%. Maximum area under the ROC curve (0.79) was also obtained for the same combination.

CONCLUSION

the best blood cell surface markers in the prediction of acute appendicitis were HLA-DR+CD19, a/β TCR, and CD3/RA. The simultaneous use of γ/δ TCR, CD3/RA, and CD3/RO showed the highest diagnostic value in acute appendicitis.