Temporal trends in lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation and its complications between 2000 and 2022: Danish, nationwide, population based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine how the lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation and of complications after atrial fibrillation changed over time.

DESIGN

Danish, nationwide, population based cohort study.

SETTING

Population of Denmark from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

3.5 million individuals (51.7% women and 48.3% men) who did not have atrial fibrillation at 45 years of age or older were followed up until incident atrial fibrillation, migration, death, or end of follow-up, whichever came first. All 362 721 individuals with incident atrial fibrillation (46.4% women and 53.6% men), but with no prevalent complication, were further followed up until incident heart failure, stroke, or myocardial infarction.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation and lifetime risks of complications after atrial fibrillation over two prespecified periods (2000-10 v 2011-22).

RESULTS

The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased from 24.2% in 2000-10 to 30.9% in 2011-22 (difference 6.7% (95% confidence interval 6.5% to 6.8%)). After atrial fibrillation, the most frequent complication was heart failure with a lifetime risk of 42.9% in 2000-10 and 42.1% in 2011-22 (-0.8% (-3.8% to 2.2%)). Individuals with atrial fibrillation lost 14.4 years with no heart failure. The lifetime risks of stroke and of myocardial infarction after atrial fibrillation decreased slightly between the two periods, from 22.4% to 19.9% for stroke (-2.5% (-4.2% to -0.7%)) and from 13.7% to 9.8% for myocardial infarction (-3.9% (-5.3% to -2.4%). No evidence was reported of a differential decrease between men and women.

CONCLUSION

Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased over two decades of follow-up. In individuals with atrial fibrillation, about two in five developed heart failure and one in five had a stroke over their remaining lifetime after atrial fibrillation diagnosis, with no or only small improvement over time. Stroke risks and heart failure prevention strategies are needed for people with atrial fibrillation.

Birth cohort effects on diagnosed atrial fibrillation incidence: nationwide cohort study from 1980 to 2018

BACKGROUND

The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) shows substantial temporal trends, but the contribution of birth cohort effects is unknown. These effects refer to the relationship between birth year and the likelihood of developing AF. We aimed to assess trends in cumulative incidence of diagnosed AF across birth cohorts and to disentangle the effects of age, birth cohort and calendar period by using age-period-cohort analyses.

METHODS

In a Danish nationwide population-based cohort study, 4.7 million individuals were selected at a given index age (45, 55, 65 and 75 years) free of AF and followed up for diagnosed AF. For each index age, we assessed trends in 10-year cumulative incidence of AF across six 5-year birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model was estimated using Poisson regression with constrained spline functions collapsing data into 1-year intervals across ages and calendar years.

RESULTS

Cumulative incidence of AF diagnosis increased across birth cohorts for all index ages (ptrend<0.001). Compared with the first birth cohort, the diagnosed AF incidence rate ratio in the last birth cohort was 3.0 (95% CI 2.9 to 3.2) for index age 45 years, 2.9 (2.8 to 3.0) for 55 years, 2.8 (2.7 to 2.8) for 65 years and 2.7 (2.6 to 2.7) for 75 years. Age-period-cohort analyses showed substantial birth cohort effects independent of age, with no clear period effect. Compared with individuals born in 1930, the diagnosed AF incidence rate was 0.125 smaller among individuals born in 1885 and was four times larger among individuals born in 1975.

CONCLUSION

Substantial birth cohort effects, independent of age and calendar period, influence trends in diagnosed AF incidence.

Atrial fibrillation: epidemiology, screening and digital health

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is highly prevalent with a lifetime risk of about 1 in 3-5 individuals after the age of 45 years. Between 2010 and 2019, the global prevalence of AF has risen markedly from 33.5 million to 59 million individuals living with AF. Early detection of AF and implementation of appropriate treatment could reduce the frequency of complications associated with AF. International AF management guidelines recommend opportunistic and systematic screening for AF, but additional data are needed. Digital approaches and pathways have been proposed for early detection and for the transition to early AF management. Mobile health (mHealth) devices provide an opportunity for digital screening and should be part of novel models of care delivery based on integrated AF care pathways. For a broad implementation of mHealth-based, integrated care for patients with chronic diseases as AF, further high quality evidence is necessary. In this review, we present an overview of the present data on epidemiology, screening techniques, and the contribution of digital health solutions to the integrated management of AF. We also provide a systemic review on current data of digital and integrated AF management.

The Danish Atrial Fibrillation Registry: A Multidisciplinary National Pragmatic Initiative for Monitoring and Supporting Quality of Care Based on Data Retrieved from Administrative Registries

Aim

The Danish Atrial Fibrillation (AF) Registry monitors and supports improvement of quality of care for all AF patients in Denmark. This report describes the registry's administrative and organizational structure, data sources, data flow, data analyses, annual reporting, and feedback between the registry, clinicians, and the administrative system. We also report the selection process of the quality indicators and the temporal trends in results from 2017-2021.

Methods and Results

The Danish AF Registry aims for complete registration and monitoring of care for all patients diagnosed with AF in Denmark. Administrative registries provide data on contacts to general practice, contacts to private cardiology practice, hospital contacts, medication prescriptions, updated vital status information, and biochemical test results. The Danish Stroke Registry provides information on stroke events. From 2017 to 2021, the proportion with a reported echocardiography among incident AF patients increased from 39.9% (95% CI: 39.3-40.6) to 82.6% (95% CI: 82.1-83.1). The initiation of oral anticoagulant therapy among patients with incident AF and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of ≥1 in men and ≥2 in women increased from 85.3% (95% CI: 84.6-85.9) to 90.4% (95% CI: 89.9-91.0). The 1-year and 2-year persistence increased from 85.2% (95% CI: 84.5-85.9) to 88.7% (95% CI: 88.0-89.3), and from 85.4% (95% CI: 84.7-86.2) to 88.2% (95% CI: 87.5-88.8), respectively. The 1-year risk of ischemic stroke among prevalent patients with AF decreased from 0.88% (95% CI: 0.83-0.93) to 0.71% (95% CI: 0.66-0.75). Variation in clinical performance between the five administrative Danish regions was reduced.

Conclusion

Continuous nationwide monitoring of quality indicators for AF originating from administrative registries is feasible and supportive of improvements of quality of care.

Electrical energy by electrode placement for cardioversion of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Electrode patch position may not be critical for success when cardioverting atrial fibrillation (AF), but the relevance of applied electrical energy is unclarified. Our objective was to perform a meta-analysis of randomised trials to examine the dose-response relation between energy level and cardioversion success by electrode position in elective cardioversion.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, The Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and Scopus Citations. Inclusion criteria were randomised controlled trials using biphasic shock waves and self-adhesive patches, and publication date from 2000 to 2023. We used random-effects dose-response models to meta-analyse the relation between energy level and cardioversion success by anterolateral and anteroposterior position. Random-effects models estimated pooled risk ratios (RR) for cardioversion success after the first and the final shocks between the two electrode positions.

RESULTS

We included five randomised controlled trials (N=1078). After the first low-energy shock, the electrode position was not significantly associated with the likelihood of successful cardioversion (pooled RR anterolateral vs anteroposterior placement 1.28, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.76, with considerable heterogeneity). After a high-energy final shock, there was no evidence of an association between the electrode position and the cumulative chance of cardioversion success (pooled RR anterolateral vs anteroposterior 1.05, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.14). Regardless of electrode position, cardioversion success was significantly less likely with shock energy levels < 200J compared with 200J.

CONCLUSION

Evidence from contemporary randomised trials suggests that higher level of electrical energy is associated with higher conversion rate when cardioverting AF with a biphasic shockwave. Positioning of electrodes can be based on convenience.

Small-Area Analysis of Treatment and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Venous Thromboembolism in Denmark: A Nationwide Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

 To investigate geographical variation in initiation and extended treatment with anticoagulants and clinical outcomes among patients hospitalized with first-time venous thromboembolism (VTE) in Denmark between 2007 and 2018.

METHODS

 Using nationwide health care registries, we identified all patients with a first-time VTE hospital diagnosis supported by imaging data from 2007 to 2018. Patients were grouped according to residential region (5) and municipality (98) at the time of VTE diagnosis. Cumulative incidence of initiation of and extended (beyond 365 days) anticoagulation treatment as well as clinical outcomes, including recurrent VTE, major bleeding, and all-cause death, were assessed. Sex- and age-adjusted relative risks (RRs) of the outcomes were computed when comparing across individual regions and municipalities. Overall geographic variation was quantified by computing the median RR.

RESULTS

 We identified 66,840 patients with a first-time VTE hospitalization. A difference in initiation of anticoagulation treatment of more than 20 percentage points between regions was observed (range: 51.9-72.4%, median RR: 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.13). Variation was also observed for extended treatment (range: 34.2-46.9%, median RR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.02-1.14). The cumulative incidence of recurrent VTE ranged from 3.6 to 5.3% at 1 year (median RR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01-1.15). The difference remained after 5 years, and variation was also observed for major bleeding (median RR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03-1.15), whereas it appeared smaller for all-cause mortality (median RR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05).

CONCLUSION

 Substantial geographical variation in anticoagulation treatment and clinical outcomes occurs in Denmark. These findings indicate a need for initiatives to ensure uniform high-quality care for all VTE patients.

Social determinants of health and recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: a Danish nationwide cohort study

AIMS

To examine the associations between three social determinants of health (SDOH) and recurrence of AF after ablation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We selected patients who underwent a first ablation after an incident hospital diagnosis of AF between 2005 and 2018 from the entire Danish population. Educational attainment, family income, and whether the patient was living alone were assessed at the time of ablation. We used cause-specific proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) adjusted for age and sex. In secondary analyses, we adjusted for comorbidities, antiarrhythmic medication, and prior electrical cardioversion.We selected 9728 patients (mean age 61 years, 70% men), and 5881 patients had AF recurrence over an average of 1.37 years after ablation (recurrence rate 325.7 (95% CI 317.6-334.2) per 1000 person-years). Lower education (HR 1.09 [1.02-1.17] and 1.07 [1.01-1.14] for lower and medium vs. higher), lower income [HR 1.14 (1.06-1.22) and 1.09 (1.03-1.17) for lower and medium vs. higher], and living alone [HR 1.07 (1.00-1.13)] were associated with increased rates of recurrence of AF. We found no evidence of interaction between sex or prior HF with SDOH. The association between family income and AF recurrence was stronger among patients < 65 years compared with those aged ≥ 65 years. The associations between SDOH and AF recurrence did not persist in the multivariable model.

CONCLUSION

AF was more likely to recur among patients with lower educational attainment, lower family income, or those living alone. Multidisciplinary efforts are needed to reduce socioeconomic inequity in the effect of ablation.

Geographical variation in persistence to oral anticoagulation therapy and clinical outcomes among patients with atrial fibrillation initiating therapy in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland

AIM

To examine inter-national and regional variations in persistence of oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy and incidence of clinical outcomes and mortality, among patients with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the Nordic countries.

METHODS

We conducted a registry-based multinational cohort study of OAC-naïve patients diagnosed with AF and redeemed at least one prescription of OAC after AF in Denmark (N=25,585), Sweden (N=59,455), Norway (N=40,046), and Finland (N=22,415). Persistence was dispensing at least one prescription of OAC from day 365 after the first prescription and 90 days forward.

RESULTS

Persistence was 73.6% (95% confidence interval 73.0-74.1) in Denmark, 71.1% (70.7-71.4) in Sweden, 89.3% (88.2-90.1) in Norway, and 68.6% (68.0-69.3) in Finland. One-year risk of ischemic stroke varied between 2.0% (1.8-2.1) in Norway and 1.5% (1.4-1.6) in Sweden and 1.5% (1.3-1.6) in Finland. One-year risk of major bleeding other than intracranial bleeding varied between 2.1% (1.9-2.2) in Norway to 5.9% (5.6-6.2) in Denmark. One-year mortality risk varied between 9.3% (8.9-9.6) in Denmark and 4.2% (4.0-4.4) in Norway.

CONCLUSION

In OAC-naïve patients with incident AF, persistence of OAC therapy and clinical outcomes vary across Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland Initiation of real-time efforts are warranted to ensure uniform high-quality care across nations and regions.

Geographical Variation in the Use of Oral Anticoagulation and Clinical Outcomes among Patients with Atrial Fibrillation in Denmark, Sweden, and Finland

Background  Geographical mapping of variations in the treatment and outcomes of a disease is a valuable tool for identifying inequity. We examined international and intranational variations in initiating oral anticoagulation (OAC) therapy and clinical outcomes among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in Nordic countries. We also tracked real-world trends in initiating OAC and the clinical outcomes. Methods  We conducted a registry-based multinational cohort study of OAC-naive patients with an incident hospital diagnosis of AF in Denmark ( N  = 61,345), Sweden ( N  = 124,120), and Finland ( N  = 59,855) and a CHA ₂ DS ₂ -VASc score of ≥1 in men and ≥2 in women between 2012 and 2017. Initiation of OAC therapy was defined as dispensing at least one prescription between 90 days before and 90 days after the AF diagnosis. Clinical outcomes included ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, intracranial bleeding, other major bleeding, and all-cause mortality. Results  The proportion of patients initiating OAC therapy ranged from 67.7% (95% CI: 67.5-68.0) in Sweden to 69.6% (95% CI: 69.2-70.0) in Finland, with intranational variation. The 1-year risk of stroke varied from 1.9% (95% CI: 1.8-2.0) in Sweden and Finland to 2.3% (95% CI: 2.2-2.4) in Denmark, with intranational variation. The initiation of OAC therapy increased with a preference for direct oral anticoagulants over warfarin. The risk of ischemic stroke decreased with no increase in intracranial and intracerebral bleeding. Conclusion  We documented inter- and intranational variation in initiating OAC therapy and clinical outcomes across Nordic countries. Adherence to structured care of patients with AF could reduce future variation.

Development and validation of prediction models for incident atrial fibrillation in heart failure

OBJECTIVES

Accurate prediction of heart failure (HF) patients at high risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) represents a potentially valuable tool to inform shared decision making. No validated prediction model for AF in HF is currently available. The objective was to develop clinical prediction models for 1-year risk of AF.

METHODS

Using the Danish Heart Failure Registry, we conducted a nationwide registry-based cohort study of all incident HF patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2018 and without history of AF. Administrative data sources provided the predictors. We used a cause-specific Cox regression model framework to predict 1-year risk of AF. Internal validity was examined using temporal validation.

RESULTS

The population included 27 947 HF patients (mean age 69 years; 34% female). Clinical experts preselected sex, age at HF, NewYork Heart Association (NYHA) class, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, obstructive sleep apnoea, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and myocardial infarction. Among patients aged 70 years at HF, the predicted 1-year risk was 9.3% (95% CI 7.1% to 11.8%) for males and 6.4% (95% CI 4.9% to 8.3%) for females given all risk factors and NYHA III/IV, and 7.5% (95% CI 6.7% to 8.4%) and 5.1% (95% CI 4.5% to 5.8%), respectively, given absence of risk factors and NYHA class I. The area under the curve was 65.7% (95% CI 63.9% to 67.5%) and Brier score 7.0% (95% CI 5.2% to 8.9%).

CONCLUSION

We developed a prediction model for the 1-year risk of AF. Application of the model in routine clinical settings is necessary to determine the possibility of predicting AF risk among patients with HF more accurately and if so, to quantify the clinical effects of implementing the model in practice.

Social determinants of health and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with heart failure

BACKGROUND

We examined the associations between family income and educational attainment with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and cardiovascular (CV) death among patients with newly-diagnosed heart failure (HF).

METHODS

In a nationwide Danish registry of HF patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2018, we established a cohort for each outcome. When examining AF, MI and stroke, respectively, patients with a history of these outcomes at diagnosis of HF were excluded. We used cause-specific proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios for tertile groups of family income and three levels of educational attainment.

RESULTS

Among 27,947 AF-free patients, we found no association between income or education and incident AF. Among 27,309 MI-free patients, we found that lower income (hazard ratio 1.28 [95% CI 1.11-1.48] and 1.11 [0.96-1.28] for lower and medium vs. higher income) and education (1.23 [1.04-1.45] and 1.15 [0.97-1.36] for lower and medium vs. higher education) were associated with MI. Among 36,801 stroke-free patients, lower income was associated with stroke (1.38 [1.23-1.56] and 1.27 [1.12-1.44] for lower and medium vs. higher income) but not education. Lower income (1.56 [1.46-1.67] and 1.32 [1.23-1.42] for lower and medium vs. higher income) and education (1.20 [1.11-1.29] and 1.07 [0.99-1.15] for lower and medium vs. higher education) were associated with CV death.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with newly-diagnosed HF, lower family income was associated with higher rates of acute MI, stroke and cardiovascular death. Lower educational attainment was associated with higher rates of acute MI and cardiovascular death. There was no evidence of associations between income and education with incident AF.

Quality of care and risk of incident atrial fibrillation in patients with newly diagnosed heart failure: a nationwide cohort study

AIMS

Incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is an adverse prognostic indicator in heart failure (HF); identifying modifiable targets may be relevant to reduce the incidence and morbidity of AF. Therefore, we examined the association between quality of HF care and risk of AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using the Danish Heart Failure Registry, we conducted a nationwide registry-based cohort study of all incident HF patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2018 and without history of AF. Quality of HF care was assessed by seven process performance measures, including echocardiographic examination, New York Heart Association classification, treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers, beta-blockers, and mineralocorticoid antagonists, physical training, and patient education. In the main analysis, we examined adherence with all measures in a cohort of 25 100 patients (mean age 68.5 ± 13.2 years; 33.6% women). The median follow-up was 3.1 years. Cox proportional hazard regressions estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) between the number of fulfilled measures and incident AF. In a multivariable-adjusted analysis with 0 fulfilled performance measures as reference, the HRs (95% CIs) were 1: 0.78 (0.61-1.00), 2: 0.63 (0.49-0.80), 3: 0.53 (0.36-0.80), 4: 0.64 (0.44-0.94), 5: 0.56 (0.39-0.82), 6: 0.51 (0.35-0.74), and 7: 0.49 (0.33-0.73), with a significant decreasing linear trend (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In patients with incident HF, fulfilment of guideline-based process performance measures was associated with decreased long-term risk of AF. This study supports initiatives to improve the quality of care for patients with HF to prevent incident AF.

Social determinants of health and catheter ablation after an incident diagnosis of atrial fibrillation: A Danish nationwide cohort study

AIMS

To examine (i) the sex-specific associations between three social determinants of health (SDOH) and use of ablation after incident atrial fibrillation (AF), and (ii) the temporal trends in these associations.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a nationwide cohort study of patients with an incident hospital diagnosis of AF between 2005 and 2018. SDOH at the time of AF diagnosis included three levels of educational attainment, tertile groups of family income, and whether the patient was living alone. Outcome was catheter ablation for AF. We used cause-specific proportional hazard models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CI and adjusted for age. To examine temporal trends, we included an interaction term between the exposure and calendar years. Among 122 276 men, those with lower education (HR 0.49 [95%CI 0.45-0.53] and 0.72 [0.68-0.77] for lower and medium vs. higher), lower income (HR 0.31 [0.27-0.34] and 0.56 [0.52-0.60] for lower and medium vs. higher), and who lived alone (HR 0.60 [0.55-0.64]) were less likely to receive AF ablation. Among 98 476 women, those with lower education (HR 0.45 [0.40-0.50] and 0.83 [0.75-0.91] for lower and medium vs. higher), lower income (HR 0.34 [0.28-0.40] and 0.51 [0.46-0.58] for lower and medium vs. higher), and who lived alone (HR 0.67 [0.61-0.74]) were less likely to receive AF ablation. We found no evidence of temporal trends in the associations.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Danish universal healthcare system, patients with AF who had lower educational attainment, lower family income, or living alone were less likely to undergo AF ablation.

Life-Years Lost After Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Heart Failure

Objective

Prior work estimated excess death rates associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) in heart failure (HF) with hazard ratios (HR). The aim was to estimate the life-years lost after newly diagnosed AF in HF patients.

Methods

Among patients diagnosed with HF in 2008–2018 in the nationwide Danish Heart Failure Registry, we compared patients with incident AF to referents matched on age, sex, and time since HF. We estimated the marginal hazard ratio (HR) for death and marginal difference in restricted mean survival times (RMST) between AF cases and referents at 10 years after AF diagnosis. We adjusted for sex, age at AF diagnosis, clinical and lifestyle risk factors, and medications.

Results

Among 4463 AF cases and 17,792 referents (mean age 73.7 years, 29% women), the HR was 1.41 (95% CI 1.38; 1.44) but there was evidence of non-proportional hazards. The difference in RMST was −18.2 months (95% CI −16.8; −19.6) at 10 years after AF diagnosis. There were differences in life-years lost between patients diagnosed with AF >1 year and ≤1 year after HF (−25.7 months, 95% CI −23.7; −27.7 vs −10.4 months, 95% CI −8.2; −12.5, p < 0.001), women and men (−20.3 months, 95% CI −17.7; −21.9 vs −17.2 months, 95% CI −15.5; −19.0, p = 0.05), patients with low, medium, and high CHA₂DS₂-VASc (10.3 months, 95% CI −4.6; −16.1 vs −18.5 months, 95% CI −16.7; −20.4 vs 22.1, 95% CI −18.8; −22.3, p = 0.002).

Conclusion

HF patients with incident AF lost on average 1.5 life-years over 10 years after AF. Life-years lost were larger among patients diagnosed with AF >1 year after HF, women, and patients with higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc.

Newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation and hospital utilization in heart failure: a nationwide cohort study

Aims

Atrial fibrillation (AF) constitutes a major burden to health services, but the importance of incident AF in patients with heart failure (HF) is unclear. We examined the associations between incident AF and hospital utilization in patients with HF.

Methods and results

In a nationwide matched‐cohort study of HF patients, we identified patients diagnosed with incident AF between 2008 and 2018 in the Danish Heart Failure Registry (N = 4463), and we compared them to matched referents without AF (N = 17 802). Incident AF was associated with a multivariable‐adjusted 4.8‐fold increase (95% CI 4.1–5.6) and 4.3‐fold increase (95% CI 3.9–4.8) in the cumulative incidence of inpatient and outpatient contacts within 30 days, respectively. At 1 year, the cumulative incidence ratios were 1.8 (95% CI 1.7–1.9) and 1.4 (95% CI 1.4–1.5). Incident AF was also associated with increases in the total numbers of inpatient and outpatient hospital contacts within 30 days (multivariable‐adjusted rate ratio 1.4, 95% CI 1.4–1.5, and 1.6, 95% CI 1.6–1.7, respectively). At 1 year, the ratios were 2.2 (95% CI 2.1–2.3) and 2.0 (95% CI 1.9–2.1). The multivariable‐adjusted proportion of bed‐day use among HF patients with incident AF was 10.9‐fold (95% CI 9.3–12.9) higher at 30 days and 5.3‐fold (95% CI 4.3–6.4) higher at 1 year compared with AF‐free referents.

Conclusions

Incident AF in HF is associated with earlier hospital contact, more hospital contacts, and more hospital bed‐days. More evidence on interventions that may prevent the risk and subsequent burden of AF in HF is urgently needed.

Trends in the incidence and mortality of intracerebral hemorrhage, and the associated risk factors, in Denmark from 2004 to 2017

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The distribution of the major modifiable risk factors for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) changes rapidly. These changes call for contemporary data from large-scale population-based studies. The aim of the present study was to examine trends in incidence, risk factors, and mortality in ICH patients from 2004 to 2017.

METHODS

In a population-based cohort study, we calculated age- and sex-standardized incidence rates (SIRs), incidence rates (IRs) stratified by age and sex per 100,000 person-years, and trends in risk profiles. We estimated absolute mortality risk, and the Cox proportional hazards regression multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for 30-day and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

We included 16,902 patients (53% men; median age 75 years) from 2004 to 2017. The SIR of ICH decreased from 33 (95% confidence interval [CI] 32-34) in 2004/2005 to 28 (95% CI 27-29) in 2016/2017. Among patients aged ≥70 years, the IR decreased from 137 (95% CI 130-144) in 2004/2005 to 112 (95% CI 106-117) in 2016/2017. The IR in patients aged <70 years was unchanged. From 2004 to 2017, the proportion of patients with hypertension increased from 49% to 66%, the use of oral anticoagulants increased from 7% to 18%, and the use of platelet inhibitors decreased from 40% to 28%. The adjusted hazard ratio for 30-day mortality in 2016/2017 was 0.94 (95% CI 0.89-1.01) and 1-year mortality was 0.98 (95% CI 0.93-1.04) compared with 2004/2005.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of spontaneous ICH decreased from 2004 to 2017, with no clear trend in mortality. The risk profile of ICH patients changed substantially, with increasing proportions of hypertension and anticoagulant treatment. Given the high mortality rate of ICH, further advances in prevention and treatment are urgently needed.

Role for machine learning in sex-specific prediction of successful electrical cardioversion in atrial fibrillation?

Objective

Electrical cardioversion is frequently performed to restore sinus rhythm in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). However, AF recurs in many patients and identifying the patients who benefit from electrical cardioversion is difficult. The objective was to develop sex-specific prediction models for successful electrical cardioversion and assess the potential of machine learning methods in comparison with traditional logistic regression.

Methods

In a retrospective cohort study, we examined several candidate predictors, including comorbidities, biochemistry, echocardiographic data, and medication. The outcome was successful cardioversion, defined as normal sinus rhythm immediately after the electrical cardioversion and no documented recurrence of AF within 3 months after. We used random forest and logistic regression models for sex-specific prediction.

Results

The cohort comprised 332 female and 790 male patients with persistent AF who underwent electrical cardioversion. Cardioversion was successful in 44.9% of the women and 49.9% of the men. The prediction errors of the models were high for both women (41.0% for machine learning and 48.8% for logistic regression) and men (46.0% for machine learning and 44.8% for logistic regression). Discrimination was modest for both machine learning (0.59 for women and 0.56 for men) and logistic regression models (0.60 for women and 0.59 for men), although the models were well calibrated.

Conclusions

Sex-specific machine learning and logistic regression models showed modest predictive performance for successful electrical cardioversion. Identifying patients who will benefit from cardioversion remains challenging in clinical practice. The high recurrence rate calls for thoroughly informed shared decision-making for electrical cardioversion.

Death of a Partner and Risks of Ischemic Stroke and Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Nationwide Danish Matched Cohort Study

Background

Stress has been reported to trigger stroke, and the death of a loved one is a potentially extremely stressful experience. Yet, previous studies have yielded conflicting findings of whether bereavement is associated with stroke risk, possibly because of insufficient distinction between ischemic stroke (IS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We therefore examined the associations between bereavement and IS and ICH separately in contemporary care settings using nationwide high‐quality register resources.

Methods and Results

The study cohort included all Danish individuals whose partner died between 2002 and 2016 and a reference group of cohabiting individuals matched 1:2 on sex, age, and calendar time. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and corresponding 95% CIs during up to 5 years follow‐up. During the study period, 278 758 individuals experienced partner bereavement, of whom 7684 had an IS within the subsequent 5 years (aHR, 1.11; CI, 1.08–1.14 when compared with nonbereaved referents) and 1139 experienced an ICH (aHR, 1.13; CI, 1.04–1.23). For ICH, the estimated association tended to be stronger within the initial 30 days after partner death (aHR, 1.66; CI, 1.06–2.61), especially in women (aHR, 1.99; CI, 1.06–3.75), but the statistical precision was low. In absolute numbers, the cumulative incidence of IS at 30 days was 0.73 per 1000 in bereaved individuals versus 0.63 in their referents, and the corresponding figures for ICH were 0.13 versus 0.08.

Conclusions

Statistically significant positive associations with partner bereavement were documented for both IS and ICH risk, for ICH particularly in the short term. However, absolute risk differences were small.

Trends in excess mortality associated with atrial fibrillation over 45 years (Framingham Heart Study): community based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess temporal trends in the association between newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation and death.

DESIGN

Community based cohort study.

SETTING

Framingham Heart Study cohort, in 1972-85, 1986-2000, and 2001-15 (periods 1-3, respectively), in Framingham, MA, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants with no atrial fibrillation, aged 45-95 in each time period, and identified with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (or atrial flutter) during each time period.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome was all cause mortality. Hazard ratios for the association between time varying atrial fibrillation and all cause mortality were calculated with adjustment for time varying confounding factors. The difference in restricted mean survival times, adjusted for confounders, between participants with atrial fibrillation and matched referents at 10 years after a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation was estimated. Meta-regression was used to test for linear trends in hazard ratios and restricted mean survival times over the different time periods.

RESULTS

5671 participants were selected in time period 1, 6177 in period 2, and 6174 in period 3. Adjusted hazard ratios for all cause mortality between participants with and without atrial fibrillation were 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 2.2) in time period 1, 1.4 (1.3 to 1.6) in period 2, and 1.7 (1.5 to 2.0) in period 3 (P_trend=0.70). Ten years after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, the adjusted difference in restricted mean survival times between participants with atrial fibrillation and matched referents decreased by 31%, from -2.9 years (95% confidence interval -3.2 to -2.5) in period 1, to -2.1 years (-2.4 to -1.8) in period 2, to -2.0 years (-2.3 to -1.7) in period 3 (P_trend=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

No evidence of a temporal trend in hazard ratios for the association between atrial fibrillation and all cause mortality was found. The mean number of life years lost to atrial fibrillation at 10 years had improved significantly, but a two year gap compared with individuals without atrial fibrillation still remained.

Cardioversion of atrial fibrillation in a real-world setting: non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants ensure a fast and safe strategy compared to warfarin

Aims

Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are increasingly used as thromboembolic prophylaxis in cardioversion. We examined the waiting time to cardioversion and the outcomes in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) of > 48 h of duration who were treated with either NOACs or warfarin.

Methods and results

Anticoagulation was handled in a structured, multidisciplinary AF-clinic. The objectives were the waiting time to cardioversion, and thromboembolism and major bleeding events within 60 days. In total, 2150 electrical cardioversions were performed; 684 (31.8%) of patients were on NOACs and 1466 (68.2%) were on warfarin. The waiting time to non-TOE-guided cardioversion was significantly shorter in the NOAC group compared with the warfarin group for all cardioversions (P < 0.001 for log-rank test) and for first-time cardioversions (P < 0.001 for log-rank test). For all non-TOE-guided cardioversions, 80% of procedures on NOACs and 67% of procedures on warfarin were performed within 25 days (P < 0.001). Thromboembolism occurred in one patient (0.15%) receiving NOAC and in two patients (0.14%) receiving warfarin (risk ratio (RR) 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.10-11.81). Major bleeding events occurred in four patients (0.58%) in the NOAC group and 11 patients (0.75%) in the warfarin group (RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.25-2.43).

Conclusion

In a real-world clinical setting with anticoagulation handled in a structured multidisciplinary AF clinic, the waiting time to cardioversion was shorter with NOACs compared to warfarin. The rates of thromboembolism and major bleeding events were low, with NOACs shown to be as effective and safe as warfarin.

Diagnostic accuracies of screening for atrial fibrillation by cardiac nurses versus radiographers

Aim

We examined the diagnostic accuracy of single-lead ECG as assessed by radiographers and 12-lead ECG as assessed by cardiac nurses for the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF).

Methods

Based on the Danish Cardiovascular Screening Trial, we conducted a population-based, cross-sectional study of 1338 randomly selected Danish men aged 65–74 years with no exclusion criteria. The participants were screened with single-lead ECG during a CT scan assessed by radiographers and 12-lead ECG assessed by cardiac nurses. The diagnostic accuracy was evaluated compared with that produced by a 12-lead ECG assessed by two consenting cardiologists.

Results

The study identified 68 participants with ongoing AF, of whom 60 had self-reported AF and 8 had AF detected in the screening. Single-lead ECG assessed for AF by radiographers had a sensitivity of 60.3% (95% CI 47.7 to 72.0), specificity of 97.2% (95% CI 96.2 to 98.1), positive predictive value (PPV) of 53.9% (95% CI 42.1 to 65.5) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 97.9% (95% CI 96.9 to 98.6). 12-lead ECG assessed by cardiac nurses had a sensitivity of 97.1% (95% CI 89.8 to 99.6), specificity of 100% (95% CI 99.7 to 100), PPV of 100% (95% CI 94.6 to 100) and NPV of 99.8% (95% CI 99.4 to 100).

Conclusions

Single-lead ECG assessed by radiographers had a moderate sensitivity and PPV but a very high specificity and NPV. Using radiographers may be acceptable for opportunistic screening, in particular if radiographers are thoroughly trained. Thus, 12-lead ECG assessed by cardiac nurses is a potential diagnostic method for the detection of AF.

Association between process performance measures and 1-year mortality among patients with incident heart failure: a Danish nationwide study

Aims

To examine the association between fulfilment of performance measures supported by clinical guidelines recommendations and 1-year mortality among patients with incident heart failure (HF) in Denmark.

Methods and results

A nationwide population-based follow-up study based on the Danish Heart Failure Registry. All Danish hospital departments caring for patients with HF. We identified 24 308 in- and outpatients diagnosed with HF from 2003 to 2010. Quality of care was defined as receiving the guideline recommended processes of care: use of echocardiography, New York Heart Association classification, treatment with angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin-II-receptor blocker, beta blockers, physical training, and patient education. Main outcome measure is 1-year mortality. We used multiple imputation and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for 1-year mortality adjusted for potential confounding factors. Within 1 year, 17.1% of the patients died and the adjusted HRs ranged from 0.61 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.55-0.67] for patient education to 0.99 (95% CI 0.90-1.10) for beta blocker therapy. The association between meeting more performance measures and 1-year mortality appeared to follow a dose-response pattern: using 0-25% of fulfilled measures as reference, patients who fulfilled 76-100% of the performance measures had an adjusted HR of 0.43 (95% CI 0.38-0.48), while the adjusted HR was 0.96 (95% CI 0.86-1.07) for patients who fulfilled between 26% and 50% of the performance measures.

Conclusion

Meeting process performance measures, which reflect care in concordance with clinical guideline recommendations, was associated with substantially lower 1-year mortality among patients with incident HF.

Inequality in oral anticoagulation use and clinical outcomes in atrial fibrillation: a Danish nationwide perspective

Aim

To explore the potential of small-area variation analysis as a tool for identifying unwarranted variation in oral anticoagulation (OAC) use and clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and thereby identify locations with opportunity for improvement in AF care.

Methods and results

Based on Danish health care registries, we conducted a nationwide historical cohort study including first-time AF patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75, diabetes, thromboembolism, vascular disease, age 65-74, and sex category) score ≥ 2 between 2007 and 2014 (n = 94 482). For each administrative region and municipality, we assessed OAC initiation and persistence as well as the risk of ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, and other major bleeding, respectively. In addition, potential temporal changes were examined for all outcomes. Initiation of OAC varied among regions from 49.5% to 62.4%. In patients initiating OAC, the proportion of patients still receiving OAC after 1 year varied from 73.9% to 79.3%. Oral anticoagulation use increased in all regions during the study period, particularly after 2010, but regional variation in OAC initiation persisted. Generally, the regions and municipalities with the highest initiation of OAC also had the highest OAC persistence. The risk of ischaemic stroke and other major bleeding was lower in these regions and municipalities. We found no significant difference between regions in risk of haemorrhagic stroke.

Conclusion

Substantial geographical variation in OAC use and clinical outcomes occurs in Denmark demonstrating the potential of small-area variation analysis as a tool for identifying unwarranted variation in AF care and clinical outcomes. Our findings demonstrate the need for additional initiatives to ensure uniform high-quality care for AF patients.

Atrial Fibrillation and Risk of Cancer: A Danish Population-Based Cohort Study

Background Atrial fibrillation ( AF ) and cancer are frequent diseases worldwide. The timewise association between the diagnosis of AF and a subsequent diagnosis of cancer may clarify whether a mutual cause exists, and may also guide clinicians about time windows of high risk of cancer occurrence. Methods and Results We conducted a population-based cohort study among 26 222 men and 28 879 women free of AF and cancer at baseline based on the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health study. The participants were followed for the development of AF (the Danish National Patient Registry) and subsequent cancer (the Danish Cancer Registry) until 2013. We used Cox proportional hazard models with new-onset AF as time-dependent exposure. The men (median age 56 years) and women (median age 56 years) were followed for medians of 16.7 and 19.6 years, respectively. AF was associated with higher risks of any type of cancer (men: hazard ratio [ HR ] 1.41, 95% confidence interval [ CI ], 1.26-1.58; women: HR 1.15, 95% CI , 1.02-1.32), and for men only, lung ( HR 1.66, 95% CI , 1.19-2.30), and colorectal cancer ( HR 1.37, 95% CI , 1.02-1.85). Within the initial 90 days following the diagnosis of AF , the risks of any type of cancer (men: HR 2.89, 95% CI , 2.10-3.98; women: HR 3.72, 95% CI , 2.49-5.56), lung (men: HR 7.70, 95% CI , 4.34-13.68; women: HR 7.98, 95% CI , 3.96-16.09), and colorectal cancer (men: HR 3.35, 95% CI , 1.03-10.90; women: HR 5.91, 95% CI , 2.44-14.29) were higher for men and women. Conclusions A diagnosis of AF is associated with a higher incidence rate of cancer among men and women. The cancer incidence rate is particularly elevated within 90 days after the diagnosis of AF .

Relation of Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Risk of Cancer (from a Danish Population-Based Follow-up Study in Patients Who Underwent Cardiac Computed Tomography)

Evidence of a causal link between atherosclerosis and cancer is sparse and conflicting. Therefore, we examined the association between extent of coronary atherosclerosis determined by coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and risk of cancer. We conducted a historical population-based cohort study of 28,549 cancer-free patients identified in the Western Denmark Heart Registry. All patients underwent cardiac computed tomography for measurement of CACS for suspected coronary artery disease. The outcome was an incident cancer diagnosis: total, tobacco-related, lung, prostate, breast, and colorectal. We used Cox proportional hazards regression analyses stratified by gender to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for relations between CACS and cancer with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). During follow-up, 455 men and 527 women had a cancer diagnosis. In a multivariable model (reference group: CACS 0), adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for total cancer were as follows: CACS 1 to 99: 1.07 (0.83 to 1.39), CACS 100 to 399: 1.24 (0.94 to 1.63), CACS 400 to 999: 0.88 (0.62 to 1.25), CACS ≥1,000: 0.96 (0.66 to 1.41) in men; and CACS 1 to 99: 0.96 (0.77 to 1.19), CACS 100 to 399: 0.99 (0.75 to 1.31), CACS 400 to 999: 1.11 (0.76 to 1.62), and CACS ≥1,000: 1.16 (0.73 to 1.83) in women. We found no significant association between CACS and the specified outcomes for men or women, except for an increased risk of lung cancer among women with a high CACS. In conclusion, extent of coronary atherosclerosis determined by CACS was not associated with development of total, tobacco-related, lung, prostate, breast, or colorectal cancer. However, we did observe an association between CACS and risk of lung cancer in women.

[Laser treatment of sinusitis in general practice assessed by a double-blind controlled study]

The effect of Low Level Laser therapy (Galium-Aluminium-Arsenide laser, 30 mW/830 nm, Unilaser 2000 3B) on sinuitis was evaluated in a double-blind randomised clinical study comprising 60 patients from general practice. All patients received three treatments (90 seconds radiation on each sinus) with one to three days interval. No statistically significant differences in pain relief, well-being or duration of illness were observed between patients treated with laser and a placebo.