Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.

COVID discrimination experience: Chinese Canadians' social identities moderate the effect of personal and group discrimination on well-being

OBJECTIVE

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has amplified preexisting racism and xenophobia. In this study, we investigated (a) whether perceived personal and group discrimination make distinct contributions to Chinese Canadians' negative affect and concern that the heightened discrimination they experienced during the pandemic will continue after the pandemic; (b) whether Canadian and Chinese identities and social support moderate the effect of discrimination on this concern; and (c) whether race-based rejection sensitivity (RS) explains why each type of discrimination predicts negative affect and expectation of future discrimination.

METHOD

A sample of Chinese Canadian adults across Canadian provinces (N = 516; M_age = 42.74, 53.3% females) completed a questionnaire assessing personal and group discrimination, Chinese and Canadian identity, a short form of race-based RS, negative affect, and expectation of future discrimination.

RESULTS

Personal and group discrimination were intercorrelated and positively associated with negative emotion and expectation of future discrimination. Chinese Canadians who identified more strongly as Chinese experienced a less adverse impact related to group discrimination. However, those who identified more (vs. less) strongly as Canadians were more likely to be impacted by personal discrimination. Finally, path analysis revealed that both personal and group discrimination were positively associated with RS, which in turn predicted an expectation that long-lasting racism would continue after the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

Group and personal discrimination play different roles in Chinese Canadians' experiences during and expectations after the pandemic. Maintaining Chinese identity can be beneficial to Chinese Canadians, particularly in mitigating the negative effect of group discrimination during the pandemic. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

The mindsets × societal norm effect across 78 cultures: Growth mindsets are linked to performance weakly and well-being negatively in societies with fixed-mindset norms

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Recent research on mindsets has shifted from understanding its homogenous role on performance to understanding how classroom environments explain its heterogeneous effects (i.e., Mindsets × Context hypothesis). Does the macro context (e.g., societal level of student mindsets) also help explain its heterogeneous effects? And does this interaction effect also apply to understanding students' well-being? To address these questions, we examined whether and how the role of students' mindsets in performance (math, science, reading) and well-being (meaning in life, positive affect, life satisfaction) depends on the societal-mindset norms (i.e., Mindsets × Societal Norm effect).

SAMPLE/METHODS

We analysed a global data set (n = 612,004 adolescents in 78 societies) using multilevel analysis. The societal norm of student mindsets was the average score derived from students within each society.

RESULTS

Growth mindsets positively and weakly predicted all performance outcomes (rs = .192, .210, .224), but the associations were significantly stronger in societies with growth-mindset norms. In contrast, the associations between growth mindsets and psychological well-being were very weak and inconsistent (rs = -.066, .003, .008). Importantly, the association was negative in societies with fixed-mindset norms but positive in societies with growth-mindset norms.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings challenge the idea that growth mindsets have ubiquitous positive effects in all societies. Growth mindsets might be ineffective or even detrimental in societies with fixed-mindset norms because such societal norms could suppress the potential of students with growth mindsets and undermines their well-being. Researchers should take societal norms into consideration in their efforts to understand and foster students' growth.

Social-Historical Accounts of Hope and Resilience: Experiences of Prominent Sexual Orientation Minority Elders

Despite the challenges faced by sexual orientation minority (SOM) individuals, many SOM individuals are able to persist and develop resiliency over the course of their lives. The present study explored how prominent SOM elders perceived the LGBTQ+ community as developing hope and resiliency in relation to major events of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer (LGBTQ+) rights development. Using a basic qualitative approach, we analyzed interview data and three categories emerged. More specifically, these categories were: (1) internalization of societal views; (2) fostering safety and acceptance by creating a sense of community; and (3) sources of inspiration for initiating change. The resulting categories show the complex interaction of social influences and resiliency during times of societal reformation. We discuss the implications of how group-based emotions and identity processes during times of societal reformation foster a life-long resilience.

Ethnic minority, immigrants, and Indigenous people's well-being disparities in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic: The mediating role of threat perceptions

The COVID-19 pandemic's differential impact on ethnic minorities, immigrants, and Indigenous people (e.g., mortality and infection rate, as well as psychological well-being) may exacerbate existing disparities. This study examined perceived threat as a psychological mechanism to explain the apparently more negative emotional experiences of ethnic minority Canadians during the pandemic compared with non-immigrant European Canadians (i.e., the majority/mainstream ethno-cultural group). We investigated group differences in negative affect and three possible threat mechanisms (perceived health, material, and cultural threat) for these differences using an online survey completed by a self-selected Canadian sample (N = 1,918). The results suggest that compared to the non-immigrant European Canadian group, ethnic minority members, immigrants, and Indigenous people have on average perceived higher levels of pandemic threat, which in turn is associated with negative affect. These findings support the hypothesis that the amount of threat perceived by different groups during the pandemic might partially explain reported group differences in well-being.

"Responsible" or "Strange?" Differences in Face Mask Attitudes and Use Between Chinese and Non-East Asian Canadians During COVID-19's First Wave

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, journalists and scholars noted differences between Asians and North Americans in their support for public mask use. These differences were primarily assumed to be due d to variations in ethnocultural norms and practices. To better ascertain people's motives for wearing masks and potential cultural differences in these rationales, this comparative, mixed-methods research examines Chinese and non-East Asian Canadians' mask use attitudes utilizing online group interviews (Study 1) and a nation-wide survey (Study 2) Study 1, conducted in the early stages of the pandemic, captured an ambivalent, yet evolving attitude toward public mask use among the non-East Asian Canadians, which differed from their Chinese counterparts who more uniformly perceived mask use favorably. Study 2, conducted 2 months later, suggests that both groups primarily wore masks for disease protection- and prevention-related reasons. However, age and education appeared to influence the mask wearing frequency of the non-East Asian Canadians, for whom public mask use was less prevalent and normative. The attitudinal differences in public mask use call for targeted strategies to support mask wearing for different ethnocultural groups, which may be achieved partially through enhancing interethnic understanding on the diversified use of and opinions about masks. The findings suggest that favorable social norms, along with evidence-based information campaigns involving personal appeals may encourage greater mask use by the non-East Asian population.

Nurses' and Physicians' Distress, Burnout, and Coping Strategies During COVID-19: Stress and Impact on Perceived Performance and Intentions to Quit

INTRODUCTION

Health care providers (HCPs) have experienced more stress and burnout during COVID-19 than before. We compared sources and levels of stress, distress, and approaches to coping between nurses and physicians, and examined whether coping strategies helped mitigate the negative impact of stress and intentions to quit.

METHODS

Using a cross-sectional study design, burnout was measured with the Maslach Burnout Inventory. Psychological distress was measured using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale. A self-reported survey was used to evaluate stressors, impact on perceived performance, and intentions to quit. The data were analyzed using t-tests and linear regression models.

RESULTS

Responses of 119 HCPs were analyzed. Findings suggest that (1) compared to physicians, nurses experienced a higher level of distress and burnout, and used more maladaptive coping strategies. (2) Both nurses and physicians experienced more distress and burnout during COVID-19 than before. (3) Adaptive coping strategies moderated the negative impact of stress on work performance (4) Adaptive coping strategies moderated the negative effect of stress on burnout, which in turn reduced intentions to quit. Stress negatively impacted work performance and burnout only for those with low, but not high, levels of adaptive coping strategies.

DISCUSSION

The current findings of HCPs' challenges, risks, and protective factors provide valuable information (1) on COVID-19's impact on HCPs, (2) to guide the distribution of institutional supportive efforts and recommend adaptive coping strategies, and (3) to inform medical education, such as resilience training, focusing on adaptive coping approaches.

Where do Language Mindsets Come from? An Ecological Perspective on EFL Students' Mindsets About L2 Writing

Although recent research suggests that language mindsets (i.e., fundamentalbeliefs aboutthe fixedness and malleability of language learning ability) are important for L2 learners' motivation and learning behaviors, much research has focused on quantitative approaches and static individual differences, with little emphasis on its student-centered and ecologically-relevant phenomena. The aim of this study was to take an ecological perspective to understand the development of mindsets about L2 writingand their relevance tomotivation. Based on an analysis of in-depth interviewswith six (two males, four females) adult EFL learners in Iran, we identified that several eco-systemic factors underlie the emergence, complexity, and dynamics of the learners' mindsets regarding the skill of L2 writing. Students emphasize that teachers (microsystem) play a central role in constructingtheir mindsets about L2 writing. In addition, their previous learning experiences, including teachers, parents, and high-stake exams (mesosystem), the institutional policies that emphasize English oral skills and neglect writing skills (exosystem), and the mainstream culture in favor of a natural talent for writing skills (macrosystem) also contributed to the emergence of learners' mindsets. Moreover, the results highlighted the domain-specific and dynamic nature of language mindsets, such that learners considered their mindsets about L2 writing skills differently from other skills (e.g., speaking) and that their mindsets changed in different stages of the learning processes. We show that the ecological approach can unpack the complex-dynamic and multifaceted nature of mindsets, providing theoretical and pedagogical implications for fostering growth mindsets and improving learners' L2 writing motivation.

Evaluations of Healthcare Providers' Perceived Support From Personal, Hospital, and System Resources: Implications for Well-Being and Management in Healthcare in Montreal, Quebec, During COVID-19

Increased stressful experiences are pervasive among healthcare providers (HCPs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Identifying resources that help mitigate stress is critical to maintaining HCPs' well-being. However, to our knowledge, no instrument has systematically examined how different levels of resources help HCPs cope with stress during COVID-19. This cross-sectional study involved 119 HCPs (64 nurses and 55 physicians) and evaluated the perceived availability, utilization, and helpfulness of a list of personal, hospital, and healthcare system resources. Participants also reported on their level of burnout, psychological distress, and intentions to quit. Results revealed that HCPs perceived the most useful personal resource to be family support; the most useful hospital resources were a safe environment, personal protective equipment, and support from colleagues; the most useful system resources were job protection, and clear communication and information about COVID. Moreover, HCPs who perceived having more available hospital resources also reported lower levels of psychological distress symptoms, burnout, and intentions to quit. Finally, although training and counseling services were perceived as useful to reduce stress, training was not perceived as widely available, and counseling services, though reported as being available, were underutilized. This instrument helps identify resources that support HCPs, providing implications for healthcare management.

Public Health Messages About Face Masks Early in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perceptions of and Impacts on Canadians

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadians faced much ambiguity in the public health messages around face mask use. As public health messaging plays a pivotal role in the provision of directives during a health crisis, this study examines Canadians' opinions on the early messaging they received regarding personal protection, especially around mask use, with the goal of identifying potential improvements to strengthen future health messaging. Nine online focus group interviews with 47 Canadians were conducted. These natural conversations focused on personal protective equipment (PPE) choices, mask-relevant public health information sources, and advice to Canadian authorities to improve public health messaging on mask use. Responses were imported into NVivo for thematic analysis. Four meta-themes of relevance were identified. Despite demonstrating trust in scientific evidence and public health authorities, the inconsistencies in public health messaging fostered confusion, and induced mistrust toward health professionals. Further, several information deficits were identified pertaining to the scientific efficacy, safe use, and disposal of masks. Rooted in loyalty to healthcare workers, these Canadians eschewed using medical grade masks during PPE shortages to ensure a sufficient supply for medical workers. The findings stress that consistency in public health messages should be prioritized, with necessary changes clearly justified and explained. More information should reach the public on the scientific benefits and proper use of masks. Public health recommendations should be evidence-based, simple, transparent, and realistic in the current circumstances to guide Canadians to make more informed personal protection choices in the rapidly evolving pandemic.

"Does My Teacher Believe I Can Improve?": The Role of Meta-Lay Theories in ESL Learners' Mindsets and Need Satisfaction

Supporting students' growth mindsets (i.e., beliefs that ability can be improved) and basic psychological needs (i.e., needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness) is an important way to sustain their motivation and resilience after challenging situations. We argue that others' feedback may support or undermine mindsets and need satisfaction simultaneously through students' meta-lay theories-that is, students' perceptions of whether others (in this case, their teacher) believe that ability can be improved or not. We conducted a randomized controlled experiment in which 180 university students who spoke English as their second language failed a difficult English test and received either feedback from a teacher who consoled their lack of ability, feedback that focused on improving ability, or no feedback. We found that compared to students receiving no feedback, students receiving ability-consoling feedback perceived that the teacher believed less in their potential and felt less competent, and students receiving improvement-oriented feedback perceived that the teacher believed more in their potential. Consequently, meta-lay theory ("the teacher believes I can change my ability") predicted students' endorsement of growth mindsets ("I believe I can improve") and need satisfaction (sense of competence, relatedness, and autonomy). In turn, mindsets and need satisfaction jointly predicted language confidence and beliefs about mistakes. Only need satisfaction, however, predicted task avoidance and duration of task engagement. Meta-lay theories underlie the processes through which feedback supports or undermines students' resilience after failure.

Does Stereotype Threat Affect Men in Language Domains?

Boys and men tend to underperform in language education, and they are also underrepresented in language-related fields. Research suggests that stereotypes can affect students' performance and sense of belonging in academic subjects and test settings via stereotype threat. For example, girls and women sometimes underperform on math tests following reminders that math is for boys. We sought to test whether stereotypes that women have better language skills than men would affect men. In a series of four experiments (N = 542), we tested the effect of explicit stereotype threats on men's performance in language-related tasks, and their sense of belonging to language-related domains. We found little evidence for stereotype threat effects on men in language. Bayesian analysis suggested that the null hypothesis was consistently more likely than the alternative, and mini-meta analyses showed effect sizes near zero. Future research should explore other explanations for gender gaps in language.

Why don’t “real men” learn languages? Masculinity threat and gender ideology suppress men’s language learning motivation

Large gender disparities in participation still exist across many university subjects and career fields, but few studies have examined factors that account for gender gaps in female-dominated disciplines. We examine one possible cause: threatened masculinity among men who hold traditional gender ideologies. Past research has linked endorsement of traditional gender ideologies to gender-stereotypical occupational choices, and threats to masculinity can lead men to distance themselves from femininity. After confirming that 1,672 undergraduates stereotyped language learning as feminine, we applied a masculinity threat manipulation to investigate 182 men’s disinterest in studying foreign languages, a female-dominated university subject. Men with traditional masculinity ideologies reported less interest in foreign language study and less positive attitudes towards foreign languages following masculinity threat, compared to men whose masculinity was affirmed or who held less traditional masculinity beliefs. Traditional masculine gender roles may lead some men to avoid feminine-typed domains, such as foreign language learning.