Understanding how environmental degradation, microclimate, and management shape honey production across different spatial scales

Although the abundance, survival, and pollination performance of honeybees are sensitive to changes in habitat and climate conditions, the processes by which these effects are transmitted to honey production and interact with beekeeping management are not completely understood. Climate change, habitat degradation, and beekeeping management affect honey yields, and may also interact among themselves resulting in indirect effects across spatial scales. We conducted a 2-year, multi-scale study on Chiloe Island (northern Patagonia), where we evaluated the most relevant environmental and management drivers of honey produced by stationary beekeepers. We found that the effects of microclimate, habitat, and management variables changed with the spatial scale. Among the environmental variables, minimum temperature, and cover of the invasive shrub, gorse (Ulex europaeus) had the strongest detrimental impacts on honey production at spatial scales finer than 4 km. Specialized beekeepers who adopted conventional beekeeping and had more mother colonies were more productive. Mean and minimum temperatures interacted with the percentage of mother colonies, urban cover, and beekeeping income. The gorse cover increased by the combination of high temperatures and the expansion of urban lands, while landscape attributes, such as Eucalyptus plantation cover, influenced beekeeping management. Results suggest that higher temperatures change the available forage or cause thermal stress to honeybees, while invasive shrubs are indicators of degraded habitats. Climate change and habitat degradation are two interrelated environmental phenomena whose effects on beekeeping can be mitigated through adaptive management and habitat restoration.

Molecular and phylogenetic analysis of herpesviruses in endangered free-ranging cervids of Chile: ovine gammaherpesvirus-2-A novel threat to wild and domestic animal health in Chilean Patagonia

Introduction

Herpesvirus infections have been highlighted as emerging diseases affecting wildlife health and the conservation of several taxa. Malignant catarrhal fever (MCF) and infectious keratoconjunctivitis (IKC) are two viruses that infect wild ruminants. Nevertheless, epidemiological data on herpesviruses in South American wild ruminants are limited. An outbreak of caprine gammaherpesvirus-2 (CpHV-2) that recently was suspected as the cause of MCF in southern pudus (Pudu puda) prompted the need to conduct molecular screenings in Chilean cervids to understand the epidemiology of herpesviruses. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence and genetic diversity of herpesviruses in free-ranging cervids from Chile.

Methods

Herpesvirus infection was assessed in antemortem blood samples (n = 86) from pudus (n = 81) and huemuls (Hippocamelus bisulcus) (n = 5), as well as postmortem samples of spleen (n = 24) and lung (n = 3) from pudus, using a nested pan-herpesvirus PCR assay.

Results

Combining all suitable sample types, DNA of pudu gammaherpesvirus-1 was detected in five pudues and five huemuls, with an overall prevalence of 9.90% (n = 10/101; 95% CI = 5.11-17.87%). One pudu tested positive for ovine gammaherpesvirus-2 (n = 1/96; 1.04%; 95% CI = 0.05-6.49%), and one pudu tested positive for a Macavirus sequence with 98.63 similarity to ovine gammaherpesvirus-2 (n = 96; 1.04%; 95% CI = 0.05-6.49%).

Discussion

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of a herpesvirus in huemul and of ovine gammaherpesvirus-2 in Chile. Our results also confirm the active circulation of herpesvirus in free-ranging cervids in Chilean Patagonia, and as such, MCF should be considered as a possible cause of disease in free-ranging Chilean pudus and livestock species. Further research is necessary to develop a plan of systematic monitoring (serological and pathological screening) of herpesviruses in Chilean wild and domestic ruminants to understand their diversity and impact on animal health and conservation.

High vulnerability of coastal wetlands in Chile at multiple scales derived from climate change, urbanization, and exotic forest plantations

Coastal wetlands are considered one of the most vulnerable ecosystems worldwide; the ecosystem services they provide and the conservation of their biodiversity are threatened. Despite the high ecological and socioenvironmental value of coastal wetlands, regional and national vulnerability assessments are scarce. In this study we aimed to assess the vulnerability of coastal wetlands in Chile from 18°S to 42°S (n = 757) under a multiscale approach that included drivers associated with climate change and land cover change. We assessed multiple drivers of vulnerability at three spatial scales (10 m, 100 m, and 500 m) by analyzing multiple remote sensing data (16 variables) on land cover change, wildfires, climatic variables, vegetation functional properties, water surface and importance for biodiversity. We constructed a multifactorial vulnerability index based on the variables analyzed, which provided a map of coastal wetland vulnerability. Then we explored the main drivers associated with the vulnerability of each coastal wetland by performing a Principal Components Analysis with Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering, which allowed us to group coastal wetlands according to the drivers analyzed. We found that 42.6 ± 9.2 % of the coastal wetlands evaluated have high or very high vulnerability, with higher vulnerability at the 500 m scale (51.4 %). We identified four groups of coastal wetlands: two located in central Chile, mainly affected by climate change-associated drivers (41.9 ± 2.1 %), and one in central Chile which is affected by land cover change (52.8 ± 6.2 %); the latter has a lower vulnerability level. The most vulnerable coastal wetlands were located in central Chile. Our results present novel findings about the current vulnerability of coastal wetlands, which could be validated by governmental institutions in field campaigns. Finally, we believe that our methodological approach could be useful to generate similar assessments in other world zones.

Molecular survey of selected viruses in Pudus (Pudu puda) in Chile revealing first identification of caprine herpesvirus-2 (CpHV-2) in South American ungulates

Viral diseases jeopardize the health of wildlife in Chile. However, this country lacks health surveillance programs that allow for defining preventive measures to tackle such diseases. The objective of this study was to determine the occurrence and the genetic diversity of pestivirus, herpesvirus and adenovirus in pudus from Chile. Blood samples from wild (n=34) and captive (n=32) pudus were collected between 2011 and 2019 and analyzed through consensus PCR. All the samples were negative to pestivirus and adenovirus. Herpesvirus was confirmed in four captive, and one wild pudu. All four zoo animals share the same sequence for both polymerase and glycoprotein genes. Both sequences share a 100% identity with caprine herpesvirus-2, classifying them in the same cluster as the Macavirus group. In turn, novel sequences of the polymerase and glycoprotein B genes were obtained from the wild pudu. Our study reports the first evidence of CpHV-2 infection in Chile and South American ungulate populations. Further research will be necessary to assess the pathogenicity of CpHV-2 in this species. It is also urgently recommended that molecular, serological and pathological screening should be conducted in Chilean wild and captive pudus to understand the impact of the herpesvirus on their populations.

Unraveling the socio-environmental drivers during the early COVID-19 pandemic in China

The effect of environmental and socioeconomic conditions on the global pandemic of COVID-19 had been widely studied, yet their influence during the early outbreak remains less explored. Unraveling these relationships represents a key knowledge to prevent potential outbreaks of similar pathogens in the future. This study aims to determine the influence of socioeconomic, infrastructure, air pollution, and weather variables on the relative risk of infection in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in China. A spatio-temporal Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson model is used to test for the effect of 13 socioeconomic, urban infrastructure, air pollution, and weather variables on the relative risk of COVID-19 disease in 122 cities of China. The results show that socioeconomic and urban infrastructure variables did not have a significant effect on the relative risk of COVID-19. Meanwhile, COVID-19 relative risk was negatively associated with temperature, wind speed, and carbon monoxide, while nitrous dioxide and the human modification index presented a positive effect. Pollution gases presented a marked variability during the study period, showing a decrease of CO. These findings suggest that controlling and monitoring urban emissions of pollutant gases is a key factor for the reduction of risk derived from COVID-19.

Effects of air pollution and weather on the initial COVID-19 outbreaks in United States, Italy, Spain, and China: A comparative study

Contrasting effects have been identified in association of weather (temperature and humidity) and pollutant gases with COVID-19 infection, which could be derived from the influence of lockdowns and season change. The influence of pollutant gases and climate during the initial phases of the pandemic, before the closures and the change of season in the northern hemisphere, is unknown. Here, we used a spatial-temporal Bayesian zero-inflated-Poisson model to test for short-term associations of weather and pollutant gases with the relative risk of COVID-19 disease in China (first outbreak) and the countries with more cases during the initial pandemic (the United States, Spain and Italy), considering also the effects of season and lockdown. We found contrasting association between pollutant gases and COVID-19 risk in the United States, Italy, and Spain, while in China it was negatively associated (except for SO₂ ). COVID-19 risk was positively associated with specific humidity in all countries, while temperature presented a negative effect. Our findings showed that short-term associations of air pollutants with COVID-19 infection vary strongly between countries, while generalized effects of temperature (negative) and humidity (positive) with COVID-19 was found. Our results show novel information about the influence of pollution and weather on the initial outbreaks, which contribute to unravel the mechanisms during the beginning of the pandemic.

Multiscale spatial analysis of headwater vulnerability in South-Central Chile reveals a high threat due to deforestation and climate change

Headwaters represent an essential component of hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomical systems, by providing constant water streams to the complete basin. However, despite the high importance of headwaters, there is a lack of vulnerability assessments worldwide. Identifying headwaters and their vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner can enable restauration and conservation programs. In this study, we assess the vulnerability of headwaters in South-Central Chile (38.4 to 43.2°S) considering multiple degradation factors related to climate change and land cover change. We analyzed 2292 headwaters, characterizing multiple factors at five spatial scales by using remote sensing data related to Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC), human disturbances, vegetation cover, climate change, potential water demand, and physiography. We then generated an index of vulnerability by integrating all the analyzed variables, which allowed us to map the spatial distribution of headwater vulnerability. Finally, to estimate the main drivers of degradation, we performed a Principal Components Analysis with an Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering, that allowed us to group headwaters according to the analyzed factors. The largest proportion of most vulnerable headwaters are located in the north of our study area with 48.1 %, 62.1 %, and 28.1 % of headwaters classified as highly vulnerable at 0, 10, and 30 m scale, respectively. The largest proportion of headwaters are affected by Climate Change (63.66 %) and LUCC (23.02 %) on average across all scales. However, we identified three clusters, in which the northern cluster is mainly affected by LUCC, while the Andean and Coastal clusters are mainly affected by climate change. Our results and methods present an informative picture of the current state of headwater vulnerability, identifying spatial patterns and drivers at multiple scales. We believe that the approach developed in this study could be useful for new studies in other zones of the world and can also promote Chilean headwater conservation.

Multiple environmental drivers for the Patagonian forest-dwelling beetles: Contrasting functional and taxonomic responses across strata and trophic guilds

Forest disturbances modify microhabitats along the different vertical strata, triggering structural and functional changes in forest-dwelling beetle communities. However, the effects of multiple environmental factors can be complex to detect in ecosystems that offer a broad variety of microhabitats for a great variety of beetle species. This is the case in Patagonian temperate forests, where the use of remote sensing provides an opportunity to evaluate the sensitivity of beetle species to environmental changes. Here, we identified the environmental drivers of forest-dwelling beetle communities in the ground and canopy of 34 north Patagonian-forest landscapes. We analyzed the associations of the taxonomic and functional diversity of five trophic guilds with 30 remote-sensing variables of landscape structure, composition, and disturbances; vegetation and soil properties; and climate and physical variables. Hierarchical clustering analysis was used to identify trophic guilds responding similarly to predictors. Segmented regression analysis was used to evaluate functional redundancy from taxonomic-functional richness relationships. A total of 583 species (23,848 individuals) of beetles were recorded for both strata. The effects of environmental variables were heterogeneous across strata and guilds. Canopy beetles were especially sensitive to early successional conditions, and canopy attributes, but also benefited from the canopy openness. Forest specialists of the ground and canopy responded differently to environmental variables. Ground-dwelling beetles were mostly affected by fires, human modifications, edge closeness, high temperatures, and soil properties, responding weakly to canopy properties. Functional redundancy varied weakly along environmental gradients, being more likely in local communities of ground-dwelling beetles mostly composed of species with overlapping functional roles. Contrasting environmental responses between ground and canopy beetles, as well as among beetles of different trophic guilds, should arise from microhabitats that vary across strata and interact differently with response traits.

Climate-induced tree senescence leads to a transient increase in reproductive success of a large woodpecker species

Climate change-induced mortality of trees is a concerning phenomenon for global forest ecosystems. The rapid decay and death of long-lived trees can significantly impact forest dynamics, with effects that transmit through ecological networks, becoming more evident in organisms occupying high trophic levels, such as large and specialized woodpecker species. However, understanding how populations of high trophic level species respond to climate change is still a challenge. In this study it was analyzed 32-year data of social groups of the Magellanic Woodpecker (Campephilus magellanicus) in North Patagonia, a region facing increasingly frequent droughts and increased temperatures. A positive trend in the size of woodpecker social groups as a response to climate-induced tree senescence was tested. A causal structural equation model examining climate- tree senescence- woodpecker relationships was used. Increasing nonlinear trends and positive interannual growth rates (>10%) for tree senescence and group size were found. Lowland forest sites had higher levels of tree senescence and more numerous social groups. The causal model supported the positive effect of mean temperature on tree senescence and the positive association of woodpeckers with tree senescence. These results provide evidence of a climate-induced increase in tree senescence that causes an increase in the size of woodpecker social groups. It is suggested that accelerated decay and mortality of trees in the northern Patagonian forests will decrease the stocks of deadwood in the long term, threatening the persistence of this large woodpecker species.

Increasing importance of heat stress for cattle farming under future global climate scenarios

In the last decades, livestock species have been severely affected by heat stress because of increasing temperatures, which has threatened animal welfare and decreased production. Based on thermal comfort indices and ensemble climate projections, we analyzed the current and future global spatiotemporal patterns of the heat exposure of cattle in 10 agroclimatic zones. The results show that ~7% of the global cattle population is currently exposed to dangerous heat conditions. This percentage is projected to increase to ~48% before 2100 under a scenario of growing emissions. Tropical agroclimatic zones are expected to face an early increase in the exposure to intense heat before 2050. Heat exposure was negatively correlated with the socioeconomic variables, showing that poor and livestock-dependent tropical countries are the most affected. Our results demonstrate the near-future consequences of heat stress on livestock, emphasizing the limited time available to implement effective abatement strategies.

Contaminant emissions as indicators of chemical elements in the snow along a latitudinal gradient in southern Andes

The chemical composition of snow provides insights on atmospheric transport of anthropogenic contaminants at different spatial scales. In this study, we assess how human activities influence the concentration of elements in the Andean mountain snow along a latitudinal transect throughout Chile. The concentration of seven elements (Al, Cu, Fe, Li, Mg, Mn and Zn) was associated to gaseous and particulate contaminants emitted at different spatial scales. Our results indicate carbon monoxide (CO) averaged at 20 km and nitrogen oxide (NOx) at 40 km as the main indicators of the chemical elements analyzed. CO was found to be a significant predictor of most element concentrations while concentrations of Cu, Mn, Mg and Zn were positively associated to emissions of NOx. Emission of 2.5 μm and 10 μm particulate matter averaged at different spatial scales was positively associated to concentration of Li. Finally, the concentration of Zn was positively associated to volatile organic compounds (VOC) averaged at 40 km around sampling sites. The association between air contaminants and chemical composition of snow suggests that regions with intensive anthropogenic pollution face reduced quality of freshwater originated from glacier and snow melting.

Tree decay modulates the functional response of lichen communities in Patagonian temperate forests

Epiphytic and epixylic lichens respond negatively to forest degradation, climate change and pollution, but those effects may depend on functional traits or interact with the stage of tree decay. Disentangling the main drivers of lichen communities remains a challenge in regions where lichens are diverse and poorly known, as the case of Patagonian temperate forests. We used a multi-scale approach to evaluate the relationship between environmental variables, tree decay stage and lichens. We sampled lichens across three increasing scales (tree ≪ site ≪ landscape) by selecting 19 landscape units, where trees in four decay stages (snags, logs, cavity trees and healthy trees) were selected within sampling plots. A total of 35 predictors were measured over different scales, including 25 remote sensing indices of forest conditions, climate and air pollutants. Structural Equation Models were used to test the causal linkages of predictors with lichens, distinguishing functional categories (size, growth and reproductive strategy). A total of 69 lichen species were recorded. Cavity trees and logs supported the largest diversity, while snags and healthy trees had the lowest diversity. Functional lichen groups responded differently to fine-scale variables, including the diameter, height, density and pH of trees. Air pollutants affected species with sexual and mixed strategies. Lichens were sensitive to precipitation, temperature and wind speed, with foliose and sexual species responding positively to the latter. The abundance of all species and macrolichens increased with tree senescence and decreased with canopy continuity. Lichens occupying snags and logs responded negatively to primary productivity and tree senescence, but positively to soil organic matter. Our findings suggest: i) the functional structure of lichen communities varies non-linearly with the wood decay process; ii) the reproductive strategy influences the sensitivity to air pollutants, iii) climate variables influence dispersal and colonization of woody substrates; and iv) forest structure/succession interacts with tree decay.

The failed invasion of Harmonia axyridis in the Azores, Portugal: Climatic restriction or wrong population origin?

We tested two questions: (i) whether the climatic conditions of the Azorean Islands in Portugal may have restricted the invasion of Harmonia axyridis across this archipelago and (ii) determine what population of this species could have a higher probability of invading the islands. We used MaxEnt to project the climate requirements of different H. axyridis populations from three regions of the world, and the potential global niche of the species in the Azorean islands. Then we assessed the suitability of the islands for each of the three H. axyridis populations and global potential niche through histograms analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of climate variables, and a variable-by-variable assessment of the suitability response curves compared with the climatic conditions of the Azores. Climatic conditions of the Azores are less suitable for the U.S. and native Asian populations of H. axyridis, and more suitable for European populations and the global potential niche. The PCA showed that the climatic conditions of the islands differed from the climatic requirements of H. axyridis. This difference is mainly explained by precipitation of the wettest month, isothermality, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month. We concluded that the climatic conditions of the Azores could have influenced the establishment and spread of H. axyridis on these islands from Europe. Our results showed that abiotic resistance represented by the climate of the potentially colonizable zones could hinder the establishment of invasive insects, but it could vary depending of the origin of the colonizing population.

Giants are coming? Predicting the potential spread and impacts of the giant Asian hornet (Vespa mandarinia, Hymenoptera:Vespidae) in the USA

BACKGOUND

Biological invasions are a global concern in agriculture, food production and biodiversity. Among the invasive species, some hornets are known to have serious effects on honey bees, as found during the invasion of Vespa velutina in Europe. The recent findings of Vespa mandarinia individuals in Washington state in the west coast of the USA have raised alarm in the whole country. Here we estimate the potential spread of V. mandarinia in the USA, analyzing its potential impacts on honey bee colonies, economic losses in the honey bee industry and bee-pollinated croplands.

RESULTS

We found that V. mandarinia could colonize Washington and Oregon states in the west coast and a significant proportion of the east coast. If this species spread across the country, it could threaten 95 216 ± 5551 honey bee colonies, threatening an estimated income of US$11.9 and 101.8 million for hive derived products and bee-pollinated crops production, respectively, while colonizing 60 837.8 km² of bee-pollinated croplands.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that V. mandarinia will have serious effects in the USA, raising the need for prompt monitoring actions and planning at different administrative levels to avoid its potential spread.

Expansion of the Emerging Fungal Pathogen Cryptococcus bacillisporus Into America: Linking Phylogenetic Origin, Geographical Spread and Population Under Exposure Risk

In 2018 the fungal pathogen Cryptococcus bacillisporus (AFLP5/VGIII) was isolated for the first time in Chile, representing the only report in a temperate region in South America. We reconstructed the colonization process of C. bacillisporus in Chile, estimating the phylogenetic origin, the potential spread zone, and the population at risk. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the strain and modeled the environmental niche of the pathogen projecting its potential spread zone into the new colonized region. Finally, we generated risk maps and quantified the people under potential risk. Phylogenetic analysis showed high similarity between the Chilean isolate and two clonal clusters from California, United States and Colombia in South America. The pathogen can expand into all the temperate Mediterranean zone in central Chile and western Argentina, exposing more than 12 million people to this pathogen in Chile. This study has epidemiological and public health implications for the response to a potential C. bacillisporus outbreak, optimizing budgets, routing for screening diagnosis, and treatment implementation.

Current and future spatial assessment of biological control as a mechanism to reduce economic losses and carbon emissions: the case of Solanum sisymbriifolium in Africa

BACKGROUND

Solanum sisymbriifolium is a native plant of South America introduced into Africa, which has detrimental effects on crop yields, and on the environment due to weed control treatment by burning. In South America, S. sisymbriifolium is naturally controlled by the beetle Gratiana spadicea, making this a potential option for its control in Africa. Here, we aim to generate current and future scenarios for the introduction of G. spadicea as a biocontrol agent in Africa, analysing: (i) current and future effective biocontrol areas; (ii) potentially avoided economic losses (AEL), and chemical control costs and savings; and (iii) avoided carbon emissions (ACE) associated with the non-burning of crop fields. We combine species distribution models (SDM) with land cover maps to estimate current and future effective biocontrol considering Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. We then estimate AEL and ACE using biocontrol, and chemical control costs and savings.

RESULTS

The effective biocontrol area reached 392 405 km² in 18 countries, representing 40% of potentially affected croplands. Climate change induced a decrease in affected croplands and effective biocontrol. The estimated AEL reached US$45 447.2 ± 5617.3 billion distributed across 16 countries, while the estimated chemical control costs and savings reached US$1988.5 billion and 1411.8 billion, respectively. Potential ACE reached 36.3 ± 5.4 Tg.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides evidence for the potential benefits of biological controllers on economic losses and carbon emissions, which can be incorporated into sustainable development in low-income countries.

Spatial Quantification of the Population Exposed to Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii Species Complexes in Europe: Estimating the Immunocompetent and HIV/AIDS Patients Under Risk

Cryptococcus is an important fungal pathogen worldwide, causing serious clinical manifestations that can affect immunocompetent patients and can be particularly severe for immunocompromised patients. The Cryptococcus gattii s.s. (AFLP4/VGI), Cryptococcus tetragattii (AFLP/VGIV), Cryptococcus neoformans, and Cryptococcus deneoformans have been isolated from both clinical and environmental sources in Europe. We aim to quantify the people in Europe and the entire Mediterranean area who are under risk associated with each of the three fungal pathogens in a spatially explicit way, generating a series of maps and population statistics per country. Niche modeling was applied to estimate the potential distribution of each fungal pathogen, then these models were overlapped with a map of population density to estimate risk levels. The potential number of people per risk level and per country was quantified using a map of population count per pixel. Prevalence of HIV per country was also included in the analysis to quantify the HIV-infected population under potential risk. People under risk associated with exposure to C. gattii species (C. gattii s.s. and C. tetragattii) reached 137.65 million, whereas those exposed to C. neoformans and C. deneoformans were 268.58 and 360.78 million people, respectively. More than a half million HIV-infected patients are exposed to each of the two species of the C. neoformans species complex, and more than 200,000 to the C. gattii species complex. The present results can be useful for public health planning by European governments, focusing on the provision of inputs for a "screen-and-treat" approach, availability of medical resources, and continuous monitoring programs in risk zones.

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Foraging Behaviour in Magellanic Woodpeckers Is Consistent with a Multi-Scale Assessment of Tree Quality

Theoretical models predict that animals should make foraging decisions after assessing the quality of available habitat, but most models fail to consider the spatio-temporal scales at which animals perceive habitat availability. We tested three foraging strategies that explain how Magellanic woodpeckers (Campephilus magellanicus) assess the relative quality of trees: 1) Woodpeckers with local knowledge select trees based on the available trees in the immediate vicinity. 2) Woodpeckers lacking local knowledge select trees based on their availability at previously visited locations. 3) Woodpeckers using information from long-term memory select trees based on knowledge about trees available within the entire landscape. We observed foraging woodpeckers and used a Brownian Bridge Movement Model to identify trees available to woodpeckers along foraging routes. Woodpeckers selected trees with a later decay stage than available trees. Selection models indicated that preferences of Magellanic woodpeckers were based on clusters of trees near the most recently visited trees, thus suggesting that woodpeckers use visual cues from neighboring trees. In a second analysis, Cox’s proportional hazards models showed that woodpeckers used information consolidated across broader spatial scales to adjust tree residence times. Specifically, woodpeckers spent more time at trees with larger diameters and in a more advanced stage of decay than trees available along their routes. These results suggest that Magellanic woodpeckers make foraging decisions based on the relative quality of trees that they perceive and memorize information at different spatio-temporal scales.

Cooling and eutrophication of southern Chilean lakes

Understanding the impacts of global warming and human-disturbances on lakes is required for implementing management strategies aimed at mitigating the decline of the quality and availability of water for humans. We assessed temporal trends in water parameters, and the contribution of land use to the eutrophication of the largest lakes of central-southern Chile. The mean values of water parameters varied seasonally, with lakes Chapo and Caburgua exhibiting lower pH, temperature, and N/P ratio values. Over the assessed period (19 years), we found a temporal reduction in water conductivity and temperature of the lakes. The concentration of NO3(-)-N, PO4(3-)-P and dissolved oxygen increased in all the lakes, but pH increased in eight out of the ten lakes. The negative temporal trend in temperature was more pronounced as the depth level increased. Lakes whose basins had a higher percentage of forest plantation and urban areas had larger values of Chlorophyll a and pH, as well as, smaller values of dissolved oxygen. Lakes whose basins included larger percentages of native forest had smaller nutrient (NO3(-)-N, PO4(3-)-P) concentrations. Our findings suggest that decreased rainfall in central-southern Chile due to climate change may cause a decrease of particulate material that is carried by tributaries into the lakes. The observed temporal decrease in temperature, especially at the deeper levels, may be explained by the rapid melting of glaciers. Although the studied lakes are classified as oligotrophic, deforestation and expansion of urban areas around the lakes have led to increased nutrient input, thus accelerating their eutrophication.

Diurnal Human Activity and Introduced Species Affect Occurrence of Carnivores in a Human-Dominated Landscape

Diurnal human activity and domestic dogs in agro-forestry mosaics should theoretically modify the diurnal habitat use patterns of native carnivores, with these effects being scale-dependent. We combined intensive camera trapping data with Bayesian occurrence probability models to evaluate both diurnal and nocturnal patterns of space use by carnivores in a mosaic of land-use types in southern Chile. A total of eight carnivores species were recorded, including human-introduced dogs. During the day the most frequently detected species were the culpeo fox and the cougar. Conversely, during the night, the kodkod and chilla fox were the most detected species. The best supported models showed that native carnivores responded differently to landscape attributes and dogs depending on both the time of day as well as the spatial scale of landscape attributes. The positive effect of native forest cover at 250m and 500 m radius buffers was stronger during the night for the Darwin's fox and cougar. Road density at 250m scale negatively affected the diurnal occurrence of Darwin´s fox, whereas at 500m scale roads had a stronger negative effect on the diurnal occurrence of Darwin´s foxes and cougars. A positive effect of road density on dog occurrence was evidenced during both night and day. Patch size had a positive effect on cougar occurrence during night whereas it affected negatively the occurrence of culpeo foxes and skunks during day. Dog occurrence had a negative effect on Darwin's fox occurrence during day-time and night-time, whereas its negative effect on the occurrence of cougar was evidenced only during day-time. Carnivore occurrences were not influenced by the proximity to a conservation area. Our results provided support for the hypothesis that diurnal changes to carnivore occurrence were associated with human and dog activity. Landscape planning in our study area should be focused in reducing both the levels of diurnal human activity in native forest remnants and the dispersion rates of dogs into these habitats.

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

Influence of land use and climate on the load of suspended solids in catchments of Andean rivers

Understanding the interaction between anthropogenic land use and the rainfall pattern can be crucial to predict changes in total suspended solids (TSS) in streams and rivers. We assessed the effects of land use and annual rainfall on the TSS load of 19 southern Chilean catchments. The results indicated that the concentration of TSS increased in catchments with a rainy regime and greater annual precipitation. TSS load also increased as the surface of open areas increased at the catchment scale and decreased with increasing cover of glaciers and perennial snow. However, we did not find support for models with interaction terms between climate and land use. Results suggest that a regional decrease in annual rainfall accompanied by an increase in the altitude of the zero isotherms, as predicted by climate models, should have multiple effects on TSS. In particular, increased TSS load can be expected from a contraction of glaciers and perennial snow areas as well as the intensification of new crops and urban expansion.

Heavy metals in northern Chilean rivers: spatial variation and temporal trends

Rivers of central-northern Chile are exposed to pollution from different sources, including mining activities, natural orogenic process, volcanic activity, and geology. In order to determine the contribution of mining to river pollution, the spatio-temporal dynamics of chemical species dissolved in 12 rivers of central-northern Chile was assessed. Of all the rivers studied, the Elqui showed the highest historical mean concentrations of As, Cu and Pb. The Aconcagua had the highest concentration of Hg and a large Cr concentration, while the Rapel showed elevated concentrations of Cu and Mo. The Elqui and the Aconcagua were clustered as distinct groups by a cluster analysis based on two independent principal components. Hierarchical Bayesian models showed annual trends but no seasonal effects in heavy metal concentrations. As and Cu in the Elqui had positive annual slopes. Sulphate concentration exceeded 100 mg L(-1) in nine rivers, and in seven of them it had positive annual slopes. Our findings suggest that mining pollution is the main process contributing to this increasing annual trend in As, Cu and SO(4)(2-). Therefore, in order to improve the water quality of these rivers it is necessary to identify the main sources of heavy metals associated with mining activities.

Nutrients dynamics in the main river basins of the centre-southern region of Chile

Chilean basins have long been exposed to nutrient discharges from human activities and land use changes. A historical seasonal NO(3)(-)-N and PO(4)(3-)-P database of the last 23 years of the main nine rivers of central-southern region of Chile was analysed. Generalized additive models indicated that annual trends in NO(3)(-)-N and PO(4)(3-)-P are nonlinear. River basins such as Bío-Bío, Bueno, Imperial, Maule, Rapel and Valdivia showed a clear increase in NO(3)(-)-N, while PO(4)(3-)-P increased only in the Rapel and Maule basins. Although no seasonal difference in NO(3)(-)-N and PO(4)(3-)-P was found in the analysed basins, there was a negative relation between these nutrients and water flow. Sampling stations with high NO(3)(-)-N concentration were found mostly in sub-basins located in the "central valley" of central Chile, while several PO(4)(3-)-P "over-concentrated" sampling stations were located mostly upstream. If NO(3)(-)-N emissions into Chilean river basins continue at current rates it is probable that the concentration of this nutrient will tend to match that of the most "polluted" rivers around the world.

Conservation of birds in evergreen Chilean forests: the effect of partial cutting systems

Current legislation in Chile allows two alternative regeneration methods for evergreen forest: heavy shelterwood (retaining 30% of the basal area at the time of regeneration harvest) and strip cutting. We compared bird abundance among four stands: two evergreen forest stands managed with these cutting systems, an undisturbed stand and a light shelterwood stand (with a retention level of 65%). Eight out of 15 species, in addition to total bird abundance, were affected by partial cutting. Light shelterwood tended to be the treatment with the smaller negative effect on bird abundance, reducing the abundance of only two species, possibly due to the loss of the understorey vegetation. Nevertheless, the abundance of three species of trunk and foliage gleaners, as well as total bird abundance, decreased only in the heavy shelterwood and the strip cut stands. Further, the abundance of trunk and foliage gleaners was greater in the light shelterwood stand than in the other cutting stands, indicating that these species are particularly sensitive to partial cutting with low retention levels. Therefore, in order to reduce the detrimental effect of partial cutting systems on the evergreen forest birds, we suggest the use of shelterwood cutting with a retention level higher than 50% of the standing basal area at the time of the regeneration harvest.