Serum PRO-C3 is useful for risk prediction and fibrosis assessment in MAFLD with chronic kidney disease in an Asian cohort

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is an emerging risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD). N-terminal propeptide of collagen type 3 (PRO-C3) is a biomarker of advanced fibrosis in MAFLD and PRO-C3 may be involved in renal fibrosis. We aimed to use PRO-C3 measurements to generate a new algorithmic score to test the prediction of MAFLD with chronic kidney disease (MAFLD-CKD).

METHODS

A derivation and independent validation cohort of 750 and 129 Asian patients with biopsy-confirmed MAFLD were included. Serum PRO-C3 concentration was measured and regression analyses were performed to examine associations with MAFLD-CKD. A derivative algorithm for MAFLD-CKD risk prediction was evaluated with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

The study included two Asian cohorts (n = 180 with MAFLD-CKD; mean-eGFR: 94.93 mL/min/1.73 m2; median-urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio: 6.58 mg/mmol). PRO-C3 was associated with the severity of MAFLD-CKD and independently associated with MAFLD-CKD (adjusted odds ratio = 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-1.23, p < .001). A new non-invasive score (termed PERIOD) including PRO-C3 efficiently predicted MAFLD-CKD (AUROC = .842, 95% CI: .805-.875). Accuracy, specificity and negative predictive values were 80.2%, 85.1% and 88.4%, respectively. In the validation cohort, the PERIOD score had good diagnostic performance (AUROC = .807, 95% CI: .691-.893) with similar results in all patient subgroups. In the MAFLD-CKD subgroup, the accuracy for identifying advanced fibrosis was further improved by combining the PRO-C3-based ADAPT with the Agile 3+ scores (AUROC = .90, 95% CI: .836-.964).

CONCLUSIONS

The PERIOD score is helpful for accurately predicting the risk of MAFLD-CKD. PRO-C3 can also be used to assess liver fibrosis in people with MAFLD-CKD.

CAMP-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B after HBsAg seroclearance

BACKGROUND

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

AIMS

To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm3/L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance.

Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography Scores to Predict Liver-Related Events in Steatotic Liver Disease

Importance

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis.

Objective

To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests.

Results

A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group.

Conclusions and Relevance

Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.

Long-term use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate increases fracture risk in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a reduction in bone mineral density and an increase in bone metabolism biomarkers. However, data on clinical bone fractures remain limited. We evaluated the impact of TDF compared to entecavir on the risk of fracture in elderly patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

METHODS

Patients with CHB aged ≥60 years receiving entecavir or TDF between January 2008 and December 2022 were identified using a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. The risk of incident fracture in entecavir- and TDF-treated patients before and after month 24 were compared after propensity score matching.

RESULTS

A total of 41,531 patients with CHB (mean age 69.8±7.8 years, 61.6% male) receiving entecavir (n = 39,897 [96.1%]) and TDF (n = 1,634 [3.9%]) were analysed. At a median follow-up of 25.3 (9.1-58.5) months, 1,733 (4.2%) patients developed incident fracture. Patients with incident fracture were more likely to have diabetes, hypertension, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, and a history of fracture. Compared with propensity score-matched entecavir-treated patients, the risk of incident fracture in TDF-treated patients was comparable in the first 24 months (weighted subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.99, 95% CI 0.56-1.73, p = 0.960) but increased after month 24 (weighted sHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.11-2.93, p = 0.019). The 24-, 60-, and 96-month cumulative incidences (95% CI) of fracture in TDF-treated and entecavir-treated patients were 2.3% (1.6%-3.4%) vs. 2.6% (1.9%-3.5%), 6.4% (5.0%-8.2%) vs. 4.7% (3.8%-6.0%), and 10.2% (8.3%-12.6%) vs. 6.8% (5.4%-8.5%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of fracture increased with TDF treatment for ≥24 months in elderly patients with CHB. Selection of nucleos(t)ide analogues should be individualised based on age and comorbidities.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Previous literature suggested that the use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is associated with a decrease in bone mineral density. However, data on the impact of TDF on long-term incident clinical fracture remains scarce. In this real-world territory-wide study of 41,531 treated patients with chronic hepatitis B in Hong Kong, patients who received TDF were at a higher risk of fracture after 2 years of treatment than those who received entecavir. Given the ageing population of patients with chronic hepatitis B and the rising prevalence of comorbidities, our findings support the current treatment guidelines that recommend selecting antiviral treatment based on age and comorbidities.

A Liver Stiffness-Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs).

METHODS

MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.

Machine-learning model comprising five clinical indices and liver stiffness measurement can accurately identify MASLD-related liver fibrosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

aMAP score, as a hepatocellular carcinoma risk score, is proven to be associated with the degree of chronic hepatitis B-related liver fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the ability of aMAP score for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly NAFLD)-related fibrosis diagnosis and establish a machine-learning (ML) model to improve the diagnostic performance.

METHODS

A total of 946 biopsy-proved MASLD patients from China and the United States were included in the analysis. The aMAP score, demographic/clinical indices and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were included in seven ML algorithms to build fibrosis diagnostic models in the training set (N = 703). The performance of ML models was evaluated in the external validation set (N = 125).

RESULTS

The AUROCs of aMAP versus fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio (APRI) in cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were (0.850 vs. 0.857 [P = 0.734], 0.735 [P = 0.001]) and (0.759 vs. 0.795 [P = 0.027], 0.709 [P = 0.049]). When using dual cut-off values, aMAP had a smaller uncertainty area and higher accuracy (26.9%, 86.6%) than FIB-4 (37.3%, 85.0%) and APRI (59.0%, 77.3%) in cirrhosis diagnosis. The seven ML models performed satisfactorily in most cases. In the validation set, the ML model comprising LSM and 5 indices (including age, sex, platelets, albumin and total bilirubin used in aMAP calculator), built by logistic regression algorithm (called LSM-plus model), exhibited excellent performance. In cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis detection, the LSM-plus model had higher accuracy (96.8%, 91.2%) than LSM alone (86.4%, 67.2%) and Agile score (76.0%, 83.2%), respectively. Additionally, the LSM-plus model also displayed high specificity (cirrhosis: 98.3%; advanced fibrosis: 92.6%) with satisfactory AUROC (0.932, 0.875, respectively) and sensitivity (88.9%, 82.4%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The aMAP score is capable of diagnosing MASLD-related fibrosis. The LSM-plus model could accurately identify MASLD-related cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis.

Reply to Allaire, M.; Thabut, D. Comment on "Wu et al. Baveno VII Criteria Is an Accurate Risk Stratification Tool to Predict High-Risk Varices Requiring Intervention and Hepatic Events in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma. Cancers 2023, 15, 2480"

We thank Allaire et al [...].

Chronic hepatitis B baseline viral load and on-treatment liver cancer risk: A multinational cohort study of HBeAg-positive patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A single-nation study reported that pretreatment HBV viral load is associated with on-treatment risk of HCC in patients who are HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B initiating antiviral treatment. We aimed to validate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in a larger, multinational cohort.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Using a multinational cohort from Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan involving 7545 adult patients with HBeAg-positive, without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment with baseline HBV viral load ≥5.00 log 10 IU/mL, HCC risk was estimated by baseline viral load. HBV viral load was analyzed as a categorical variable. During continuous antiviral treatment (median, 4.28 y), HCC developed in 200 patients (incidence rate, 0.61 per 100 person-years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a nonlinear pattern. HCC risk was lowest with the highest baseline viral load (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL; incidence rate, 0.10 per 100 person-years), but increased sharply as baseline viral load decreased. The adjusted HCC risk was 8.05 times higher (95% CI, 3.34-19.35) with baseline viral load ≥6.00 and <7.00 log 10 IU/mL (incidence rate, 1.38 per 100 person-years) compared with high (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL) baseline viral load ( p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In a multinational cohort of adult patients with HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B, baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk despite antiviral treatment. Patients with the highest viral load who initiated treatment had the lowest long-term risk of HCC development.

Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 Analogues as Adjunctive Therapy for Patients With Type 1 Diabetes: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Concomitant obesity is common among patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), yet adjunctive therapy options are scarce.

OBJECTIVE

We assess the efficacy and adverse outcomes of glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) analogues when used as adjunctive therapy for T1DM.

METHOD

PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central, and Scopus databases were searched for randomized controlled trials up to December 2022. Efficacy outcomes were A1c level, body weight, and total daily insulin (TDI) after ≥12 weeks of GLP-1 therapy. We also assessed 12 different adverse outcomes. Subgroup analysis was done for newly diagnosed or C-peptide positive (C-pos) patients. We report the certainty of evidence based on the GRADE assessment tool.

RESULTS

A total of 24 studies using 4 different GLP-1 analogues with a total of 3377 patients were included. Liraglutide had the most substantial evidence with effect sizes on A1c (-0.09%/mg), weight (-2.2 kg/mg), and TDI (-4.32 IU/mg). Liraglutide dose was the greatest predictor of greater average weight loss and TDI decrease but was associated with higher odds of nausea (OR 6.5; 95% CI, 5.0-8.4) and ketosis (OR 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8). Odds of severe (OR 0.67; 95% CI, 0.43-1.04) or symptomatic hypoglycemia (OR 0.89; 95% CI, 0.53-1.51) were not significantly elevated. Among C-pos patients, greater A1c decrease (-0.51% vs -0.28%) but similar weight loss and TDI were seen. Effect sizes for exenatide were similar, but studies had higher risk of bias and safety data were sparse.

CONCLUSION

Our meta-analysis supports therapeutic benefits of liraglutide for patients with T1DM mainly for weight loss and insulin dose reduction. Newly diagnosed or C-pos patients do not appear to experience greater weight loss benefits.

MAFLD fibrosis score: Using routine measures to identify advanced fibrosis in metabolic-associated fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Early screening may prevent fibrosis progression in metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD).

AIMS

We developed and validated MAFLD fibrosis score (MFS) for identifying advanced fibrosis (≥F3) among MAFLD patients.

METHODS

This cross-sectional, multicentre study consecutively recruited MAFLD patients receiving tertiary care (Malaysia as training cohort [n = 276] and Hong Kong and Wenzhou as validation cohort [n = 431]). Patients completed liver biopsy, vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and clinical and laboratory assessment within 1 week. We used machine learning to select 'highly important' predictors of advanced fibrosis, followed by backward stepwise regression to construct MFS formula.

RESULTS

MFS was composed of seven variables: age, body mass index, international normalised ratio, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, platelet count, and history of type 2 diabetes. MFS demonstrated an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.848 [95% CI 0.800-898] and 0.823 [0.760-0.886] in training and validation cohorts, significantly higher than aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (0.684 [0.603-0.765], 0.663 [0.588-0.738]), Fibrosis-4 index (0.793 [0.735-0.854], 0.737 [0.660-0.814]), and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (0.785 [0.731-0.844], 0.750 [0.674-0.827]) (DeLong's test p < 0.05). MFS could include 92.3% of patients using dual cut-offs of 14 and 15, with a correct prediction rate of 90.4%, resulting in a larger number of patients with correct diagnosis compared to other scores. A two-step MFS-VCTE screening algorithm demonstrated positive and negative predictive values and overall diagnostic accuracy of 93.4%, 89.5%, and 93.2%, respectively, with only 4.0% of patients classified into grey zone.

CONCLUSION

MFS outperforms conventional non-invasive scores in predicting advanced fibrosis, contributing to screening in MAFLD patients.

Duration of type 2 diabetes and liver-related events in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A landmark analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We aimed to determine the impact of the duration of type 2 diabetes (T2D) on the risk of liver-related events and all-cause mortality in patients with NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a territory-wide cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD diagnosed between January 1, 2000, and July 31, 2021, in Hong Kong. T2D was defined by the use of any antidiabetic agents, laboratory tests, and/or diagnosis codes. The primary endpoint was liver-related events, defined as a composite endpoint of HCC and cirrhotic complications. To conduct a more granular assessment of the duration of T2D, we employed landmark analysis in four different ages of interest (biological age of 40, 50, 60, and 70 years). By multivariable analysis with adjustment of non-liver-related deaths, compared with patients without diabetes at age 60 (incidence rate of liver-related events: 0.70 per 1,000 person-years), the adjusted subdistribution HR (SHR) of liver-related events was 2.51 (95% CI: 1.32-4.77; incidence rate: 2.26 per 1,000 person-years) in patients with T2D duration < 5 years, 3.16 (95% CI: 1.59-6.31; incidence rate: 2.54 per 1,000 person-years) in those with T2D duration of 6-10 years, and 6.20 (95% CI: 2.62-14.65; incidence rate: 4.17 per 1000 person-years) in those with T2D duration more than 10 years. A similar association between the duration of T2D and all-cause mortality was also observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer duration of T2D is significantly associated with a higher risk of liver-related events and all-cause mortality in patients with NAFLD.

Clinical care pathway to detect advanced liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes through automated fibrosis score calculation and electronic reminder messages: a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to test the hypothesis that automated fibrosis score calculation and electronic reminder messages could increase the detection of advanced liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN

In this pragmatic randomised controlled trial at five general medical or diabetes clinics in Hong Kong and Malaysia, we randomly assigned patients in a 1:1 ratio to the intervention group with Fibrosis-4 index and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index automatically calculated based on routine blood tests, followed by electronic reminder messages to alert clinicians of abnormal results, or the control group with usual care. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with increased fibrosis scores who received appropriate care (referred for hepatology care or specific fibrosis assessment) within 1 year.

RESULTS

Between May 2020 and Oct 2021, 1379 patients were screened, of whom 533 and 528 were assigned to the intervention and control groups, respectively. A total of 55 out of 165 (33.3%) patients with increased fibrosis scores in the intervention group received appropriate care, compared with 4 of 131 (3.1%) patients in the control group (difference 30.2% (95% CI 22.4% to 38%); p<0.001). Overall, 11 out of 533 (2.1%) patients in the intervention group and 1 out of 528 (0.2%) patients in the control group were confirmed to have advanced liver disease (difference 1.9% (95% CI 0.61% to 3.5%); p=0.006).

CONCLUSION

Automated fibrosis score calculation and electronic reminders can increase referral of patients with type 2 diabetes and abnormal fibrosis scores at non-hepatology settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04241575.

Risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in grey zone patients by the Baveno VII criteria: A competing risk analysis

BACKGROUND

Baveno VII was proposed for non-invasive identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. However, a substantial proportion of patients is classified in the grey zone (i.e., liver stiffness 15-24.9 kPa and/or platelet count <150 × 109 /L).

AIMS

To evaluate the risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in patients in the grey zone, and to determine the prognostic role of spleen stiffness measurement.

METHODS

We included prospective cohorts (from Hong Kong, Korea and France) of patients who had undergone transient elastography examination for chronic liver disease. We estimated risk of hepatic decompensation using competing risk regression with hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing events.

RESULTS

We identified 2763 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). There were 1243 (44.9%) and 536 (19.4%) patients in the Baveno VII grey zone and high-risk groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of decompensation at 5 years was significantly different among low-risk (0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%]), grey zone 4.2% (95% CI: 3.1%-5.4%) and high-risk groups (11.4% [95% CI: 8.7%-14.6%]). By competing risk analysis, aetiology of liver disease (alcohol-related liver disease), albumin-bilirubin score and alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with decompensation among patients in the grey zone. The combination of Baveno VII and spleen stiffness significantly reduced patients classified into grey zone (12.8% in cACLD patients), while maintaining high discrimination of decompensation in low- and high-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients in grey zone of Baveno VII criteria remain at high risk of hepatic decompensation. Clinical risk factors and spleen stiffness can further stratify the risk in such patients.

aMAP Score and Its Combination With Liver Stiffness Measurement Accurately Assess Liver Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The changes in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) are unreliable to estimate regression of fibrosis during antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. The age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets score (aMAP), as an accurate hepatocellular carcinoma risk score, may reflect the liver fibrosis stage. Here, we aimed to evaluate the performance of aMAP for diagnosing liver fibrosis in CHB patients with or without treatment.

METHODS

A total of 2053 patients from 2 real-world cohorts and 2 multicentric randomized controlled trials in China were enrolled, among which 2053 CHB patients were included in the cross-sectional analysis, and 889 CHB patients with paired liver biopsies before and after 72 or 104 weeks of treatment were included in the longitudinal analysis.

RESULTS

In the cross-sectional analysis, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of aMAP in diagnosing cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were 0.788 and 0.757, which were comparable with or significantly higher than those of the fibrosis index based on 4 factors and the aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio. The stepwise approach using aMAP and LSM further improved performance in detecting cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis with the smallest uncertainty area (29.7% and 46.2%, respectively) and high accuracy (82.3% and 79.8%, respectively). In the longitudinal analysis, we established a novel model (aMAP-LSM model) by calculating aMAP and LSM results before and after treatment, which had satisfactory performance in diagnosing cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis after treatment (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.839 and 0.840, respectively), especially for those with a significant decrease in LSM after treatment (vs LSM alone, 0.828 vs 0.748; P < .001 [cirrhosis]; 0.825 vs 0.750; P < .001 [advanced fibrosis]).

CONCLUSIONS

The aMAP score is a promising noninvasive tool for diagnosing fibrosis in CHB patients. The aMAP-LSM model could accurately estimate fibrosis stage for treated CHB patients.

Editorial: Can liver fat quantification stratify cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes?

This article is linked to Kuo et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17637 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17742

Personalized Antiviral Drug Selection in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Using a Machine Learning Model: A Multinational Study

INTRODUCTION

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is reportedly superior or at least comparable to entecavir (ETV) for the prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B; however, it has distinct long-term renal and bone toxicities. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model (designated as Prediction of Liver cancer using Artificial intelligence-driven model for Network-antiviral Selection for hepatitis B [PLAN-S]) to predict an individualized risk of HCC during ETV or TDF therapy.

METHODS

This multinational study included 13,970 patients with chronic hepatitis B. The derivation (n = 6,790), Korean validation (n = 4,543), and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts (n = 2,637) were established. Patients were classified as the TDF-superior group when a PLAN-S-predicted HCC risk under ETV treatment is greater than under TDF treatment, and the others were defined as the TDF-nonsuperior group.

RESULTS

The PLAN-S model was derived using 8 variables and generated a c-index between 0.67 and 0.78 for each cohort. The TDF-superior group included a higher proportion of male patients and patients with cirrhosis than the TDF-nonsuperior group. In the derivation, Korean validation, and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts, 65.3%, 63.5%, and 76.4% of patients were classified as the TDF-superior group, respectively. In the TDF-superior group of each cohort, TDF was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC than ETV (hazard ratio = 0.60-0.73, all P < 0.05). In the TDF-nonsuperior group, however, there was no significant difference between the 2 drugs (hazard ratio = 1.16-1.29, all P > 0.1).

DISCUSSION

Considering the individual HCC risk predicted by PLAN-S and the potential TDF-related toxicities, TDF and ETV treatment may be recommended for the TDF-superior and TDF-nonsuperior groups, respectively.

Local Style Transfer via Latent Space Manipulation for Cross-Disease Lesion Segmentation

Automatic lesion segmentation is important for assisting doctors in the diagnostic process. Recent deep learning approaches heavily rely on large-scale datasets, which are difficult to obtain in many clinical applications. Leveraging external labelled datasets is an effective solution to tackle the problem of insufficient training data. In this paper, we propose a new framework, namely LatenTrans, to utilize existing datasets for boosting the performance of lesion segmentation in extremely low data regimes. LatenTrans translates non-target lesions into target-like lesions and expands the training dataset with target-like data for better performance. Images are first projected to the latent space via aligned style-based generative models, and rich lesion semantics are encoded using the latent codes. A novel consistency-aware latent code manipulation module is proposed to enable high-quality local style transfer from non-target lesions to target-like lesions while preserving other parts. Moreover, we propose a new metric, Normalized Latent Distance, to solve the question of how to select an adequate one from various existing datasets for knowledge transfer. Extensive experiments are conducted on segmenting lung and brain lesions, and the experimental results demonstrate that our proposed LatenTrans is superior to existing methods for cross-disease lesion segmentation.

Diabetes Mellitus Impacts on the Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We examined whether changing clinical characteristics and presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) impact the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores.

METHODS

Adult patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on ≥6 months of entecavir/tenofovir treatment between January 2005 and March 2020 were identified using a territory-wide electronic database in Hong Kong. DM was defined by antidiabetic agents, hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%, fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L, and/or diagnosis codes. PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B), and aMAP scores were assessed by area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and compared with CAMD and REAL-B scores with DM as a component.

RESULTS

Of 48,706 patients, 2792, 11,563, 15,471, and 18,880 started entecavir/tenofovir treatment between 2005-2008, 2009-2012, 2013-2016, and 2017-2020, respectively; DM prevalence rose from 15.5% in 2005-2008 to 24.3% in 2017-2020. AUROCs were comparable across the 4 periods in the 5 HCC risk scores (AUROCs ranged between 0.75 and 0.81). At a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 1512 non-diabetic (4.0%) and 645 (6.2%) diabetic patients developed HCC. AUROCs of all 5 scores were lower in diabetic patients than in non-diabetic patients (AUROCs ranged between 0.67-0.71 vs 0.78-0.82; all P < .001). REAL-B score achieved an AUROC of 0.71 in diabetic and 0.82 in non-diabetic patients. Both diabetic and non-diabetic patients in the low-risk group by REAL-B score had a low HCC incidence below the threshold of cost-effective HCC surveillance, ie, 0.2% annually.

CONCLUSIONS

REAL-B score is accurate and preferred in entecavir/tenofovir-treated CHB patients because of the increasing prevalence of DM.

Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and mortality in chronic viral hepatitis in an Asian population with and without HIV infection

BACKGROUND

It is uncertain whether people with HIV infection have a higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) than the general population.

AIMS

To compare the incidence of HCC between people infected with HBV and/or HCV with and without HIV METHODS: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort study, involving people with HBV and/or HCV infection from 2001 to 2018. The primary endpoint was incidence of HCC; secondary endpoint was all-cause mortality. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of HIV for the primary and secondary endpoints.

RESULTS

We identified 1374 people infected with HIV and 39,908 people without HIV with HBV and/or HCV infection. Among those with HIV, 654 (47.6%) had HBV, 649 (47.2%) HCV and 71 (5.2%) HBV-HCV-co-infection; they were younger, and had a higher prevalence of HCV and a lower prevalence of cirrhosis. The incidence rate estimates of HCC were, respectively, 1.5 (95% CI: 0.8-2.5) and 7.6 (95% CI 7.3-8.0) per 1000 person-years for those with and without HIV infection. Using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models, among people with HBV, HIV was associated with lower risk of HCC (adjusted HR: 0.376, 95% CI: 0.201-0.704, p = 0.01) and death (adjusted HR: 0.692, 95% CI: 0.552-0.867, p = 0.007). Risks of HCC were similar for HCV and HBV-HCV co-infection for people with and without HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with HBV infection, the Incidence of HCC was lower in those with HIV. For HCV infection, incidence of HCC was similar between those with and without HIV.

Baveno VII criteria for recompensation predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis B-related decompensated cirrhosis

Background & Aims

The latest Baveno VII consensus has provided guidance for identifying patients who have truly recompensated from those with hepatic decompensation. This study aimed to evaluate patients' transplant-free survival in three different stages of cirrhosis.

Methods

All patients with chronic HBV infection and liver cirrhosis treated with oral nucleos(t)ide analogues from March 2006 to December 2022 were identified from a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. Patients with follow-up duration of <1 year were excluded. Participants were classified into three mutually exclusive groups: (1) no decompensated events (i.e. compensated group); (2) decompensated events occurred (i.e. decompensated group); or (3) decompensated events occurred followed by recompensation according to Baveno VII criteria (i.e. recompensated group). A time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model was adopted for evaluation. The follow-up period was 5 years.

Results

A total of 4,701 patients with cirrhosis and HBV who were treated with entecavir, tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) were identified. During a median follow-up of 5 years (interquartile range 3.7, 5 years), 3,327 (70.8%), 1,347 (29.2%), and 265 (5.6%) patients had compensated, decompensated, and recompensated cirrhosis, respectively, at least once before the end of the study. In the time-dependent multivariable model, the recompensated group had similar transplant-free survival compared with the compensated group (adjusted hazard ratio 1.16; 95% CI 0.72-1.86; p = 0.536). The 5-year transplant-free survival rate was 89.3% for the compensated group, whereas it was 76.0% for the recompensated group, reflecting a minimal difference between the two groups.

Conclusions

The clinical significance of recompensation of cirrhosis in improving patient outcomes for individuals with CHB infection was highlighted in this study. Early identification and treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues might promote hepatic recompensation and thus reduce mortality in patients with CHB.

Impact and implications

The latest Baveno VII consensus introduces the new concept of hepatic recompensation, which refers to the reversal of the structural and functional changes of cirrhosis after removal, cure, or suppression of the aetiology of cirrhosis. It is essential to investigate the transplant-free survival rates of patients who are able to achieve hepatic recompensation, as this has significant implications for the medical resources required to manage liver failure and transplantation. This study features the clinical significance of hepatic recompensation by comparing patient outcomes of those who achieve it to those who do not. The early identification and use of antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues is a pivotal strategy to promote hepatic recompensation, which has the potential to significantly reduce mortality rates in patients with chronic HBV infection and ultimately aid in the elimination of hepatitis.

Point-of-Care Noninvasive Prediction of Liver-Related Events in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Individual risk prediction of liver-related events (LRE) is needed for clinical assessment of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. We aimed to provide point-of-care validated liver stiffness measurement (LSM)-based risk prediction models for the development of LRE in patients with NAFLD, focusing on selecting patients for clinical trials at risk of clinical events.

METHODS

Two large multicenter cohorts were evaluated, 2638 NAFLD patients covering all LSM values as the derivation cohort and 679 more advanced patients as the validation cohort. We used Cox regression to develop and validate risk prediction models based on LSM alone, and the ANTICIPATE and ANTICIPATE-NASH models for clinically significant portal hypertension. The main outcome of the study was the rate of LRE in the first 3 years after initial assessment.

RESULTS

The 3 predictive models had similar performance in the derivation cohort with a very high discriminative value (c-statistic, 0.87-0.91). In the validation cohort, the LSM-LRE alone model had a significant inferior discrimination (c-statistic, 0.75) compared with the other 2 models, whereas the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model (0.81) was significantly better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model (0.79). In addition, the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model presented very good calibration in the validation cohort (integrated calibration index, 0.016), and was better than the ANTICIPATE-LRE model.

CONCLUSIONS

The ANTICIPATE-LRE models, and especially the ANTICIPATE-NASH-LRE model, could be valuable validated clinical tools to individually assess the risk of LRE at 3 years in patients with NAFLD/NASH.

Baveno VII criteria identify varices needing treatment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma of different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages

BACKGROUND

Baveno VII criteria for predicting varices needing treatment (VNT) have not been tested in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) population. We evaluated Baveno VII consensus for VNT in HCC patients of different stages according to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages undergoing curative hepatectomy.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of patients with HCC. Patients underwent transient elastography examination before HCC treatment and received at least one upper endoscopic examination afterwards. Patients were prospectively followed for clinical events including VNT.

RESULTS

Six hundred and seventy-three patients (83.1% male, median age 62 years) with HCC of BCLC stage 0 (10%), A (57%), B (17%) and C (15%) were recruited and followed for 47 months. The median (range) LSM was 10.5 (6.9-20.4) kPa; 74% had LSM ≤ 20 kPa and 58% had platelet count ≥150 × 10/L, respectively. VNT occurred in 51 (7.6%) patients. In patients who fulfilled Baveno VII criteria, that is, LSM ≤ 20 kPa and platelet count above 150 × 10/L, only 11 (1.6%) patients had VNT. In all BCLC stages of HCC, the proportion of patients with VNT was below 5%, which support the validity and applicability of Baveno VII criteria in all BCLC stages of HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

The Baveno VII criteria are valid and applicable in HCC patients undergoing curative hepatectomy for selecting patients to undergo screening endoscopy for VNT. The validity was consistent across different BCLC stages of HCC.

Association of Alternative Anticoagulation Strategies and Outcomes in Patients With Ischemic Stroke While Taking a Direct Oral Anticoagulant

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Ischemic stroke despite a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) is increasingly common and portends a high risk of subsequent ischemic stroke. The efficacy and safety of antithrombotic regimens after the condition are unclear. We aimed to compare the outcomes of patients with ischemic stroke despite DOACs with and without an alternative antithrombotic regimen and determine the risk factors of recurrent ischemic stroke while on anticoagulation.

METHODS

In a population-based, propensity score-weighted, retrospective cohort study, we compared the clinical outcomes of DOAC-to-warfarin switch, DOAC-to-DOAC switch (DOACswitch), or addition of antiplatelet agents, with those of unchanged DOAC regimen (DOACsame) among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who developed the first ischemic stroke despite a DOAC from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020, in Hong Kong. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke. Secondary outcomes were intracranial hemorrhage, acute coronary syndrome, and death. We performed competing risk regression analyses to compare the clinical endpoints and determined the predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke in an unweighted multivariable logistic regression model.

RESULTS

During the 6-year study period, among 45,946 patients with AF on a DOAC as stroke prophylaxis, 2,908 patients developed ischemic stroke despite a DOAC. A total of 2,337 patients with NVAF were included in the final analyses. Compared with DOACsame, warfarin (aHR 1.96, 95% CI 1.27-3.02, p = 0.002) and DOACswitch (aHR 1.62, 95% CI 1.25-2.11, p < 0.001) were associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. In the DOACsame group, adjunctive antiplatelet agent was not associated with a reduced risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. Diabetes mellitus, concurrent cytochrome P450/P-glycoprotein (CYP/P-gp) modulators, and large artery atherosclerotic disease (LAD) were predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke.

DISCUSSION

In patients with NVAF with ischemic stroke despite a DOAC, the increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke with switching to warfarin called for caution against such practice, while the increased ischemic stroke with DOAC-to-DOAC switch demands further studies. Adjunctive antiplatelet agent did not seem to reduce ischemic stroke relapse. Because diabetes mellitus, the use of CYP/P-gp modulators, and LAD were predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke, further investigations should evaluate whether strict glycemic control, DOAC level monitoring, and routine screening for carotid and intracranial atherosclerosis may reduce ischemic stroke recurrence in these patients.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class II evidence that in patients with NVAF experiencing an ischemic stroke while being treated with a DOAC, continuing treatment with that DOAC is more effective at preventing recurrent ischemic stroke than switching to a different DOAC or to warfarin.

Advanced liver fibrosis predicts heart failure and hospitalizations in people with type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study from Hong Kong Diabetes Register

AIMS

We aimed to examine the impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on the clinical outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

Between 2013 and 2014, 1,734 patients with T2D underwent transient elastography (TE) to assess liver status indicated by controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and liver stiffness measurement (LSM). Liver steatosis was defined by CAP ≥248 dB/m and advanced liver fibrosis by LSM ≥10kPa. In 2019, we assessed their clinical outcomes including hospitalizations and mortality.

RESULTS

In this prospective cohort [56% men, mean (±standard deviation) age:60.8±11.5 years; glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c)7.8±1.6 %], 798 patients had liver steatosis, 296 patients had advanced liver fibrosis and 640 patients had normal liver at baseline. T2D with advanced liver fibrosis had higher body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, fasting plasma glucose, HbA_1c, blood pressure and lipid profiles than their counterparts with NAFLD or normal liver (all p<0.05). After a median follow-up of 6.07 (interquartile range:5.84 to 6.30) years, there were 4,403 incident hospitalizations, 32,119 days of hospital stay, and 171 deaths. Using Cox regression analysis, advanced liver fibrosis was associated with increased risk of heart failure (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] HR:3.07[1.08-8.68], p=0.035) and hospitalizations (HR: 1.39[1.14 -1.70], p=0.001) while liver steatosis was associated with reduced mortality (HR:0.60[0.41-0.87], p=0.007) compared to their counterparts with normal liver after adjustment for potential confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

T2D comorbid with liver steatosis and advanced liver fibrosis are distinct clinical entities with differences in outcomes. Advanced liver fibrosis is an important predictor for worse outcomes including heart failure and hospitalizations in people with T2D.

Baveno VII Criteria Is an Accurate Risk Stratification Tool to Predict High-Risk Varices Requiring Intervention and Hepatic Events in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The Baveno VII criteria are used in patients with liver cirrhosis to predict high-risk varices in patients with liver cirrhosis. Yet its use in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been validated. HCC alone is accompanied with a higher variceal bleeding risk due to its association with liver cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis. The use of systemic therapy in advanced HCC has been thought to further augment this risk. Upper endoscopy is commonly used to evaluate for the presence of varices before initiation of treatment with systemic therapy. Yet it is associated with procedural risks, waiting time and limited availability in some localities which may delay the commencement of systemic therapy. Our study successfully validated the Baveno VI criteria with a 3.5% varices needing treatment (VNT) missed rate, also with acceptable <5% VNT missed rates when considering alternative liver stiffness (LSM) and platelet cut-offs. The Baveno VII clinically significant portal hypertension rule-out criteria (LSM < 15 kPa and platelet >150 × 10⁹/L) also revealed a low frequency (2%) of hepatic events, whilst the rule-in criteria (LSM > 25 kPa) was predictive of a higher proportion of hepatic events (14%). Therefore, our study has successfully validated the Baveno VII criteria as a non-invasive stratification of the risk of variceal bleeding and hepatic decompensation in the HCC population.

CAGE-B and SAGE-B models better predict the hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma after 5-year of entecavir treatment than PAGE-B

AIM

The PAGE-B model consists of variables at the initiation of antiviral therapy (AVT), whereas the SAGE-B and CAGE-B models consist of variables after 5 years of AVT. We compared the predictive accuracy of three risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after 5 years of AVT in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

METHODS

A total of 1,335 patients who initiated entecavir (ETV) treatment between 2006 and 2011 and were followed up for more than 5 years were enrolled in the stduy.

RESULTS

At ETV initiation, the median age of the patients was 49 years and the median of the PAGE-B model was 14. After 5 years of ETV treatment, the median SAGE-B and CAGE-B values were 6 and 6, respectively. During the study period, 93 (7.0%) patients developed HCC after 5-year treatment. In multivariate analysis, PAGE-B (hazard ratio [HR], 1.151; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.087-1.219), SAGE-B (HR, 1.340; 95% CI, 1.228-1.463), and CAGE-B (HR, 1.327; 95% CI, 1.223-1.440) models independently predicted HCC development after 5 years of treatment (all P<0.001). The high-risk groups of the three risk prediction models showed a significantly higher risk of HCC development compared to the medium- and low-risk groups (all P<0.05). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the SAGE-B (0.772-0.844) and CAGE-B (0.785-0.838) models were significantly higher than those of the PAGE-B model (0.696-0.745) in predicting HCC development after 5 years of treatment (all P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The SAGE-B and CAGE-B models might be better than the PAGE-B model in predicting HCC development after 5 years of ETV treatment in patients with CHB.

Clinical Outcomes Following Treatment for COVID-19 With Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir and Molnupiravir Among Patients Living in Nursing Homes

Importance

Older patients living in nursing homes are at very high risk of mortality after getting COVID-19.

Objective

To evaluate outcomes following oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19 among nonhospitalized older patients living in nursing homes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This is a territory-wide, retrospective cohort study conducted between February 16 and March 31, 2022, with the last follow-up date on April 25, 2022. Participants were patients with COVID-19 living in nursing homes in Hong Kong. Data analysis was performed from May to June 2022.

Exposures

Molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, or no oral antiviral treatment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was hospitalization for COVID-19, and the secondary outcome was risk of inpatient disease progression (ie, admission to intensive care unit, use of invasive mechanical ventilation, and/or death).

Results

Of 14 617 patients (mean [SD] age, 84.8 [10.2] years; 8222 women [56.2%]), 8939 (61.2%) did not use oral antivirals, 5195 (35.5%) used molnupiravir, and 483 (3.3%) used nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. Compared with patients who did not use oral antivirals, those who used molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were more likely to be female and less likely to have comorbid illnesses and hospitalization in the past year. At a median (IQR) follow-up of 30 (30-30) days, 6223 patients (42.6%) were hospitalized and 2307 patients (15.8%) experienced inpatient disease progression. After propensity score weighting, both molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization (molnupiravir, weighted hazard ratio [wHR], 0.46; 95% CI, 0.37-0.57; P < .001; nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, wHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.32-0.65; P < .001) and inpatient disease progression (molnupiravir, wHR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.23-0.51; P < .001; nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, wHR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.06-0.44; P < .001). Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir was comparable to molnupiravir in achieving better clinical outcomes (hospitalization, wHR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.75-1.33; P = .99; inpatient disease progression, wHR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.20-1.20; P = .12).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this retrospective cohort study, the use of oral antivirals to treat COVID-19 was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization and inpatient disease progression among patients living in nursing homes. The findings of this study of nursing home residents could be reasonably extrapolated to other frail older patients living in the community.

Geographical similarity and differences in the burden and genetic predisposition of NAFLD

NAFLD has become a major public health problem for more than 2 decades with a growing prevalence in parallel with the epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The disease burden of NAFLD differs across geographical regions and ethnicities. Variations in prevalence of metabolic diseases, extent of urban-rural divide, dietary habits, lifestyles, and the prevalence of NAFLD risk and protective alleles can contribute to such differences. The rise in NAFLD has led to a remarkable increase in the number of cases of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic decompensation, and liver-related mortality related to NAFLD. Moreover, NAFLD is associated with multiple extrahepatic manifestations. Most of them are risk factors for the progression of liver fibrosis and thus worsen the prognosis of NAFLD. All these comorbidities and complications affect the quality of life in subjects with NAFLD. Given the huge and growing size of the population with NAFLD, it is expected that patients, healthcare systems, and the economy will suffer from the ongoing burden related to NAFLD. In this review, we examine the disease burden of NAFLD across geographical areas and ethnicities, together with the distribution of some well-known genetic variants for NAFLD. We also describe some special populations including patients with T2D, lean patients, the pediatric population, and patients with concomitant liver diseases. We discuss extrahepatic outcomes, patient-reported outcomes, and economic burden related to NAFLD.

Epidemiology, Symptomatology, and Risk Factors for Long COVID Symptoms: Population-Based, Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

Long COVID induces a substantial global burden of disease. The pathogenesis, complications, and epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 in the acute phase have been evaluated, while few studies have characterized the epidemiology, symptomatology, and risk factors of long COVID symptoms. Its characteristics among patients with COVID-19 in the general population remain unaddressed.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the prevalence of long COVID symptoms, its symptom patterns, and its risk factors in 4 major Chinese cities in order to fill the knowledge gap.

METHODS

We performed a population-based, multicenter survey using a representative sampling strategy via the Qualtrics platform in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong in June 2022. We included 2712 community-dwelling patients with COVID-19 and measured the prevalence of long COVID symptoms defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), and their risk factors. The primary outcomes were the symptoms of long COVID, with various levels of impact. A descriptive analysis of the prevalence and distribution of long COVID symptoms according to disease severity was conducted. A sensitivity analysis of increasing the number of long COVID symptoms was also conducted. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to examine the risk factors of severe long COVID symptoms, including age, gender, marital status, current occupation, educational level, living status, smoking habits, monthly household income, self-perceived health status, the presence of chronic diseases, the use of chronic medication, COVID-19 vaccination status, and the severity of COVID-19.

RESULTS

The response rate was 63.6% (n=2712). The prevalence of long COVID, moderate or severe long COVID, and severe long COVID was 90.4% (n=2452), 62.4% (n=1692), and 31.0% (n=841), respectively. Fatigue (n=914, 33.7%), cough (n=865, 31.9%), sore throat (n=841, 31.0%), difficulty in concentrating (n=828, 30.5%), feeling of anxiety (n=817, 30.2%), myalgia (n=811, 29.9%), and arthralgia (n=811, 29.9%) were the most common severe long COVID symptoms. From multivariate regression analysis, female gender (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=1.49, 95% CI 1.13-1.95); engagement in transportation, logistics, or the discipline workforce (aOR=2.52, 95% CI 1.58-4.03); living with domestic workers (aOR=2.37, 95% CI 1.39-4.03); smoking (aOR=1.55, 95% CI 1.17-2.05); poor or very poor self-perceived health status (aOR=15.4, 95% CI 7.88-30.00); ≥3 chronic diseases (aOR=2.71, 95% CI 1.54-4.79); chronic medication use (aOR=4.38, 95% CI 1.66-11.53); and critical severity of COVID-19 (aOR=1.52, 95% CI 1.07-2.15) were associated with severe long COVID. Prior vaccination with ≥2 doses of COVID-19 vaccines was a protective factor (aOR=0.35-0.22, 95% CI 0.08-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

We examined the prevalence of long COVID symptoms in 4 Chinese cities according to the severity of COVID-19. We also evaluated the pattern of long COVID symptoms and their risk factors. These findings may inform early identification of patients with COVID-19 at risk of long COVID and planning of rehabilitative services.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving tenofovir- vs. entecavir-based regimens: Individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The comparative risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs. entecavir (ETV) remains controversial. In this individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis, we aimed to compare HCC risk between the two drugs and identify subgroups who may benefit more from one treatment than the other.

METHODS

Published meta-analyses, electronic databases and congress proceedings were searched to identify eligible studies through January 2021. We compared HCC risk between the two drugs using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with anonymised IPD from treatment-naïve patients with CHB receiving TDF or ETV for ≥1 year. Treatment effect consistency was explored in propensity score matching (PSM), weighting (PSW) and subgroup analyses for age, sex, hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg) positivity, cirrhosis and diabetes status.

RESULTS

We included 11 studies from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong involving 42,939 patients receiving TDF (n = 6,979) or ETV (n = 35,960) monotherapy. Patients receiving TDF had significantly lower HCC risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.77; 95% CI 0.61-0.98; p = 0.03). Lower HCC risk with TDF was consistently observed in PSM (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59-0.88; p <0.01) and PSW (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.67-1.03; p = 0.10) analyses and in all subgroups, with statistical significance in the ≥50 years of age (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.58-1.00; p <0.05), male (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.58-0.96; p = 0.02), HBeAg-positive (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49-0.97; p = 0.03) and non-diabetic (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.63-1.00; p <0.05) subgroups.

CONCLUSION

TDF was associated with significantly lower HCC risk than ETV in patients with CHB, particularly those with HBeAg positivity. Longer follow-up may be needed to better define incidence differences between the treatments in various subgroups.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Previous aggregate data meta-analyses have reported inconsistent conclusions on the relative effectiveness of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and entecavir in reducing hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This individual patient data meta-analysis on 11 studies involving 42,939 patients from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong suggested that tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-treated patients have a significantly lower hepatocellular carcinoma risk than entecavir-treated patients, which was observed in all subgroups of clinical interest and by different analytical methodologies. These findings should be taken into account by healthcare providers when determining the optimal course of treatment for patients with CHB and may be considered in ensuring that treatment guidelines for CHB remain pertinent.

Risk of hepatic decompensation but not hepatocellular carcinoma decreases over time in patients with hepatitis B surface antigen loss

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We examined the long-term incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic decompensation among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients who have achieved hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance.

METHODS

All adult CHB-monoinfected patients who cleared HBsAg between January 2000 and December 2020 were identified using a territory-wide database in Hong Kong. Patients who underwent liver transplantation and/or developed HCC before HBsAg seroclearance or less than 6 months follow-up were excluded. The primary and secondary endpoints were HCC and hepatic decompensation respectively.

RESULTS

We identified 9,769 patients with CHB who achieved HBsAg seroclearance (mean age 57 years, 60.0% male, 13.2% cirrhosis); most had compensated liver function at HBsAg loss. At a median (25th-75th percentile) follow-up of 4.6 (2.2-8.4) years, 106 (1.1%) patients developed HCC. Patients who developed HCC were older, more likely to be male and have cirrhosis, and had higher alanine aminotransferase and lower platelets at the time of HBsAg loss than patients without HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC remained steady 0-7 and 8-12 years after HBsAg loss (p = 0.898) (crude annual incidence drop: -0.04%, 95% CI -0.13% to 0.04%, p = 0.265). Moreover, 124/9,640 (1.3%) patients developed hepatic decompensation. The growth in cumulative incidence of hepatic decompensation decelerated 8-12 years after HBsAg loss (p = 0.009) (crude annual incidence drop: -0.23%, 95% CI -0.40% to -0.06%, p = 0.012). In multivariable analysis, HBsAg loss for over 7 years was associated with a reduced risk of hepatic decompensation (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR] 0.55, 95% CI 0.31-0.97, p = 0.039) but not HCC (aSHR 1.35, 95% CI 0.83-2.19, p = 0.230).

CONCLUSION

HCC risk persists in patients after HBsAg loss, whereas the risk of hepatic decompensation decreases over time.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) still have a non-negligible risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after 12 years of HBsAg seroclearance, especially among those with cirrhosis. The risk of developing hepatic decompensation decreases over time after HBsAg seroclearance. In clinical practice, although patients with CHB who cleared HBsAg have a more favourable clinical outcome than those who remain chronically infected, long-term HCC surveillance would still be necessary for patients with cirrhosis and other high-risk subgroups after HBsAg seroclearance.

Trends in risk factor control and treatment among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and type 2 diabetes between 2000 and 2020: A territory-wide study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aimed to determine the trends in risk factor control and treatment among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in 2000-2020.

METHODS

We conducted a territory-wide cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD and T2D diagnosed between 1 January 2000 and 31 July 2021 in Hong Kong. T2D was defined by use of any anti-diabetic agents, laboratory tests and/or diagnosis codes.

RESULTS

This study included 16,084 patients with NAFLD and T2D (mean age, 54.8 ± 12.0 years; 7124 male [44.3%]). The percentage of patients achieving individualised haemoglobin A_1c (HbA_1c ) targets increased from 44.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42.9-46.1) to 64.8% (95% CI, 64.1-65.5), and percentage of patients achieving individualised low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) targets increased from 23.3% (95% CI, 21.9-24.7) to 54.3% (95% CI, 53.5-55.1) from 2000-2005 to 2016-2020, whereas percentage of patients achieving blood pressure control (<140/90 mm Hg) remained static at 53.1-57.2%. Combination therapy for diabetes increased, especially among those with poor glycaemic control, but there was no increase in combination therapy for hypertension. Fewer cirrhotic patients achieved blood pressure control and individualised LDL-C targets, but they were more likely to achieve individualised HbA_1c targets than non-cirrhotics. Metformin and statins were underused in cirrhotic patients. Younger patients (18-44 years) were less likely to achieve individualised HbA_1c targets than middle-aged (45-64 years) and older ones (≥65 years).

CONCLUSIONS

From 2000 to 2020, glycaemic and lipid control improved significantly, whereas blood pressure control remained static among patients with NAFLD and T2D.

Age and the relative importance of liver-related deaths in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is unclear if the leading causes of death in patients with NAFLD differ by age. We aimed to investigate if the relative importance of liver-related deaths is lower and overshadowed by cardiovascular and cancer-related deaths in the elderly population.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a territory-wide retrospective cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD between 2000 and 2021 in Hong Kong. The outcomes of interest were all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Age groups at death were studied at 10-year intervals. During 662,471 person-years of follow-up of 30,943 patients with NAFLD, there were 2097 deaths. The top three causes of death were pneumonia, extrahepatic cancer, and cardiovascular diseases. Liver disease was the sixth leading cause of death in patients aged 70-79 and 80-89 years, accounting for 5.1% and 5.9% of deaths, respectively, but only accounted for 3% or fewer of the deaths in the other age groups. Nonetheless, liver disease was the leading cause of death in patients with NAFLD-related cirrhosis, accounting for 36.8% of all deaths. The incidence of liver-related death was higher in men younger than age 70 but higher in women afterwards. The incidence of liver-related death in women increased from 0.62 to 7.14 per 10,000 person-years from age 60-69 to 70-79 years.

CONCLUSION

The relative importance of liver-related death increases with age in patients with NAFLD, especially among women. In patients with cirrhosis, liver disease is the leading cause of death.

Non-invasive biomarkers for liver inflammation in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: present and future

Inflammation is the key driver of liver fibrosis progression in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Unfortunately, it is often challenging to assess inflammation in NAFLD due to its dynamic nature and poor correlation with liver biochemical markers. Liver histology keeps its role as the standard tool, yet it is well-known for substantial sampling, intraobserver, and interobserver variability. Serum proinflammatory cytokines and apoptotic markers, namely cytokeratin-18, are well-studied with reasonable accuracy, whereas serum metabolomics and lipidomics have been adopted in some commercially available diagnostic models. Ultrasound and computed tomography imaging techniques are attractive due to their wide availability; yet their accuracies may not be comparable with magnetic resonance imaging-based tools. Machine learning and deep learning models, be they supervised or unsupervised learning, are promising tools to identify various subtypes of NAFLD, including those with dominating liver inflammation, contributing to sustainable care pathways for NAFLD.

Incidence of Viral Rebound After Treatment With Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir and Molnupiravir

Importance

Some patients treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir have experienced rebound of COVID-19 infections and symptoms; however, data are scarce on whether viral rebound also occurs in patients with COVID-19 receiving or not receiving molnupiravir.

Objective

To examine the incidence of viral rebound in patients with COVID-19 who were treated with the oral antiviral agents nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study identified 41 255 patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized from January 1, 2022, to March 31, 2022, in Hong Kong and assessed 12 629 patients with serial cycle threshold (Ct) values measured. Patients were followed up until the occurrence of the clinical end point of interest, death, date of data retrieval (July 31, 2022), or up to 30 days of follow-up, whichever came first.

Exposures

Molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Viral rebound, defined as a Ct value greater than 40 that decreased to 40 or less.

Results

Of 12 629 patients (mean [SD] age, 65.4 [20.9] years; 6624 [52.5%] male), 11 688 (92.5%) were oral antiviral nonusers, 746 (5.9%) were molnupiravir users, and 195 (1.5%) were nirmatrelvir-ritonavir users. Compared with nonusers, oral antiviral users were older, had more comorbidities, and had lower complete vaccination rates. The mean (SD) baseline Ct value was slightly higher in nirmatrelvir-ritonavir users (22.2 [6.0]) than nonusers (21.0 [5.4]) and molnupiravir users (20.9 [5.4]) (P = .04). Viral rebound occurred in 68 nonusers (0.6%), 2 nirmatrelvir-ritonavir users (1.0%), and 6 molnupiravir users (0.8%). Among 76 patients with viral rebound, 12 of 68 nonusers, 1 of 6 molnupiravir users, and neither of the nirmatrelvir-ritonavir users died of COVID-19.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, viral rebound was uncommon in patients taking molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and was not associated with increased risk of mortality. Given these findings, novel oral antivirals should be considered as a treatment for more patients with COVID-19 in the early phase of the infection.

Risk of liver-related events by age and diabetes duration in patients with diabetes and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Several guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to determine if there is a threshold of age and duration of T2D for liver-related event development to guide screening strategies.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a territory-wide retrospective cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD and T2D diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 in Hong Kong to allow for at least 5 years of follow-up. The primary endpoint was liver-related events, defined as a composite of HCC and cirrhotic complications. This study included 7028 patients with NAFLD with T2D (mean age, 56.1 ± 13.3 years; 3363 male [47.9%]). During a follow-up of 77,308 person-years, there was a threshold effect with 1.1%, 4.9%, and 94.0% of patients developing liver-related events at the age of <40, 40-50, and ≥50 years, respectively. Similarly, 3.1%, 5.1%, and 91.8% of patients developed cirrhosis at the age of <40, 40-50, and ≥50 years, respectively. In contrast, liver-related events increased linearly with diabetes duration, with no difference in the annual incidence rate between the first 10 years of T2D diagnosis and subsequent years (0.06% vs. 0.10%; p = 0.136). On multivariable analysis, baseline age ≥50 years (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.01) and cirrhosis (aHR 3.12) were the strongest risk factors associated with liver-related events. Substitution of cirrhosis with the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index or the Fibrosis-4 index yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Age rather than duration of T2D predicts liver-related events in patients with NAFLD and T2D. It is reasonable to screen patients with NAFLD and T2D for advanced liver disease starting at 50 years of age.