Cytokines, C-Reactive Protein, and Risk of Incident Hypertension in the REGARDS Study

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a highly prevalent cardiovascular disease risk factor that may be related to inflammation. Whether adverse levels of specific inflammatory cytokines relate to hypertension is unknown. The present study sought to determine whether higher levels of IL (interleukin)-1β, IL-6, TNF (tumor necrosis factor)-α, IFN (interferon)-γ, IL-17A, and CRP (C-reactive protein) are associated with a greater risk of incident hypertension.

METHODS

The REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Difference in Stroke) is a prospective cohort study that recruited 30 239 community-dwelling Black and White adults from the contiguous United States in 2003 to 2007 (visit 1), with follow-up 9 years later in 2013 to 2016 (visit 2). We included participants without prevalent hypertension who attended follow-up 9 years later and had available laboratory measures and covariates of interest. Poisson regression estimated the risk ratio of incident hypertension by level of inflammatory biomarkers.

RESULTS

Among 1866 included participants (mean [SD] aged of 62 [8] years, 25% Black participants, 55% women), 36% developed hypertension. In fully adjusted models comparing the third to first tertile of each biomarker, there was a greater risk of incident hypertension for higher IL-1β among White (1.24 [95% CI, 1.01-1.53]) but not Black participants (1.01 [95% CI, 0.83-1.23]) and higher TNF-α (1.20 [95% CI, 1.02-1.41]) and IFN-γ (1.22 [95% CI, 1.04-1.42]) among all participants. There was no increased risk with IL-6, IL-17A, or CRP.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of IL-1β, TNF-α, and IFN-γ, representing distinct inflammatory pathways, are elevated in advance of hypertension development. Whether modifying these cytokines will reduce incident hypertension is unknown.

N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Risk for Diabetes Mellitus and Metabolic Syndrome

CONTEXT

Natriuretic peptide concentrations are inversely associated with risk of diabetes mellitus and may be protective from metabolic dysfunction.

OBJECTIVE

We studied associations of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with incident diabetes, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and MetS components.

DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

2,899 participants with baseline (2003-2007) and follow-up (2013-2016) examinations and baseline NT-proBNP measurement in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke study. Logistic regression models were fitted to incident MetS, MetS components, and diabetes; covariates included demographics, risk and laboratory factors.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incident diabetes, defined as fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL, random glucose ≥200 mg/dL, or use of insulin or hypoglycemic drugs at follow-up but not baseline. Incident MetS, in participants with ≥3 harmonized criteria at follow-up and <3 at baseline.

RESULTS

310 participants (2,364 at risk) developed diabetes and 361 (2,059 at risk) developed MetS over mean 9.4 years follow-up. NT-proBNP was inversely associated with odds of incident diabetes (fully-adjusted OR per-SD higher log NT-proBNP 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.93) and MetS in the highest vs. lowest quartile only (fully-adjusted OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.92); the linear association with incident MetS was not statistically significant. NT-proBNP was inversely associated with incident dysglycemia in all models (fully-adjusted OR per-SD log NT-proBNP 0.65, 95% CI 0.53-0.79), but not with other MetS components. Effect modification by sex, race, age, or BMI was not observed.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP was inversely associated with odds of diabetes, MetS, and the MetS dysglycemia component. The metabolic implications of B-type natriuretic peptides appear important for glycemic homeostasis.

Factor VIII and Incident Hypertension in Black and White Adults: The REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Cohort

BACKGROUND

Nearly half of all Americans have hypertension, and Black adults experience a disproportionate burden. Hypercoagulability may relate to hypertension risk, and higher levels of factor VIII increase thrombosis risk. Black adults have higher factor VIII and more hypertension than other groups. Whether higher factor VIII associates with incident hypertension is unknown.

METHODS

The Biomarkers as Mediators of Racial Disparities in Risk Factors (BioMedioR) study measured certain biomarkers in a sex-race stratified sample of 4,400 REGARDS participants who attended both visits. We included BioMedioR participants, excluding those with prevalent hypertension, missing factor VIII level, or covariates of interest. Modified Poisson regression estimated risk ratios (RR) for incident hypertension by higher log-transformed factor VIII level per SD (SD of log-transformed factor VIII, 0.33). Weighting was applied to take advantage of REGARDS sampling design.

RESULTS

Among the 1,814 participants included (55% female, 24% Black race), median follow-up was 9.5 years and 35% (2,146/6,138) developed hypertension. Black participants had a higher median (IQR) factor VIII level (105.6%; 87.1 to 126.9%) than White participants (95.6%; 79.8% to 115.9%; p<0.001). . The age and sex-adjusted Black-White hypertension RR was 1.45 (95% CI 1.28, 1.63). Higher factor VIII was not associated with more hypertension (final model RR 1.01; 95% CI 0.94, 1.07).

CONCLUSIONS

In a prospective study of Black and White adults without prevalent hypertension, factor VIII was not associated with greater hypertension risk.

Interleukin-6, Diabetes, and Metabolic Syndrome in a Biracial Cohort: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Cohort

OBJECTIVE

Black Americans have a greater risk of type 2 diabetes than White Americans. The proinflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6) is implicated in diabetes pathogenesis, and IL-6 levels are higher in Black individuals. This study investigated associations of IL-6 with incident diabetes and metabolic syndrome in a biracial cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study enrolled 30,239 Black and White adults age ≥45 years in 2003-2007, with a follow-up ∼9.5 years later. Baseline plasma IL-6 was measured in 3,399 participants at risk of incident diabetes and 1,871 at risk of metabolic syndrome. Relative risk (RR) by IL-6 was estimated with modified Poisson regression for both groups.

RESULTS

Incident diabetes occurred in 14% and metabolic syndrome in 20%; both rates rose across IL-6 quartiles. There was a three-way interaction of IL-6, race, and central adiposity for incident diabetes (P = 8 × 10-5). In Black participants with and without central adiposity, RRs were 2.02 (95% CI 1.00-4.07) and 1.66 (1.00-2.75) for the fourth compared with first IL-6 quartile, respectively. The corresponding RRs were 1.73 (0.92-3.26) and 2.34 (1.17-4.66) in White participants. The pattern was similar for IL-6 and metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

Although IL-6 was higher in Black than in White participants and those with central adiposity, the association of IL-6 with diabetes risk was statistically significant only among White participants without central adiposity. The association with metabolic syndrome risk was similarly stronger in low-risk groups. The results support the concept of interventions to lower inflammation in diabetes prevention, but to reduce race disparities, better biomarkers are needed.

Development and validation of a risk model for hospital-acquired venous thrombosis: the Medical Inpatients Thrombosis and Hemostasis study

BACKGROUND

Regulatory organizations recommend assessing hospital-acquired (HA) venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk for medical inpatients.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a risk assessment model (RAM) for HA-VTE in medical inpatients using objective and assessable risk factors knowable at admission.

METHODS

The development cohort included people admitted to medical services at the University of Vermont Medical Center (Burlington, Vermont) between 2010 and 2019, and the validation cohorts included people admitted to Hennepin County Medical Center (Minneapolis, Minnesota), University of Michigan Medical Center (Ann Arbor, Michigan), and Harris Health Systems (Houston, Texas). Individuals with VTE at admission, aged <18 years, and admitted for <1 midnight were excluded. We used a Bayesian penalized regression technique to select candidate HA-VTE risk factors for final inclusion in the RAM.

RESULTS

The development cohort included 60 633 admissions and 227 HA-VTE, and the validation cohorts included 111 269 admissions and 651 HA-VTE. Seven HA-VTE risk factors with t statistics ≥1.5 were included in the RAM: history of VTE, low hemoglobin level, elevated creatinine level, active cancer, hyponatremia, increased red cell distribution width, and malnutrition. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration slope were 0.72 and 1.10, respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration slope were 0.70 and 0.93 at Hennepin County Medical Center, 0.70 and 0.87 at the University of Michigan Medical Center, and 0.71 and 1.00 at Harris Health Systems, respectively. The RAM performed well stratified by age, sex, and race.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a RAM for HA-VTE in medical inpatients. By quantifying risk, clinicians can determine the potential benefits of measures to reduce HA-VTE.

Hepatocyte growth factor and risk of incident stroke in Black and White Americans in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study

Background

Hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) is a cytokine produced in response to endothelial damage. Higher levels correlate with cardiovascular risk factors, including hypertension and diabetes.

Objectives

We hypothesized that HGF is associated with stroke.

Methods

The Reasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study enrolled 30,239 Black and White Americans aged ≥45 years from 2003 to 2007. In this case-cohort study, after 5.5 years of follow-up, circulating baseline HGF was measured in 557 participants with incident ischemic stroke and in a cohort random sample of 964 participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) per SD log-transformed HGF and by HGF quintile were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for stroke risk factors and other correlates of HGF. Differences by race and sex were tested using interaction terms.

Results

Median HGF was 295 (IQR, 209-402) pg/mL. HGF was higher with older age, male sex, prevalent cardiovascular disease, smoking, and warfarin use, but did not differ by race. The adjusted HR of incident ischemic stroke per SD higher baseline HGF (145 pg/mL) was 1.30 (CI, 1.00-1.70), with no difference by sex or race. HGF in the highest (>434 pg/mL) vs lowest quintile (<135 pg/mL) was associated with an adjusted HR of incident stroke of 2.12 (CI, 1.31-3.41).

Conclusion

In the REGARDS study, higher HGF was associated with increased risk of incident ischemic stroke in Black and White adults, with a doubling in risk of HGF in the top quintile compared with the lowest quintile after adjusting for other stroke risk factors.

Effects of Continuous Accelerated Pacing on Cardiac Structure and Function in Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: Insights From the myPACE Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction ≥50% is prevalent with few evidence-based therapies. In a trial of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction with specialized pacemakers, treatment with accelerated personalized pacing averaging 75 bpm (myPACE) markedly improved quality of life, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide), physical activity, and atrial fibrillation burden compared with the standard lower rate setting of 60 bpm (usual care).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this exploratory study, provider-initiated echocardiographic studies obtained before and after the trial were assessed for changes in left ventricular (LV) structure and function among participants who continued their pacing assignment. The analytic approach aimed to detect differences in standard and advanced echocardiographic parameters within and between study arms. Of the 100 participants, 16 myPACE and 20 usual care arm had a qualifying set of echocardiograms performed a mean (SD) 3 (2.0) years apart. Despite similar baseline echocardiogram measures, sustained exposure to moderately accelerated pacing resulted in reduced septal wall thickness (in cm: myPACE 1.1 [0.2] versus usual care 1.2 [0.2], P=0.008) and lower LV mass to systolic volume ratio (in g/mL: myPACE 4.8 [1.9] versus usual care 6.8 [3.1], P=0.038) accompanied by a minor reduction in LV ejection fraction (in %: myPACE 55 [5] versus usual care 60 [5], P=0.015). These changes were paralleled by improvements in heart failure-related quality of life (myPACE Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire improved by 16.1 [13.9] points, whereas usual care worsened by 6.9 [11.6] points, P<0.001). Markers of diastolic function and LV performance were not affected.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to continuous accelerated pacing in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is associated with a reduced LV wall thickness and a small amount of LV dilation with small reduction in ejection fraction.

Timing of orthostatic hypotension and its relationship with falls in older adults

BACKGROUND

There is inconsistent evidence on the optimal time after standing to assess for orthostatic hypotension. We determined the prevalence of orthostatic hypotension at different time points after standing in a population of older adults, as well as fall risk and symptoms associated with orthostatic hypotension.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of the Study to Understand Fall Reduction and Vitamin D in You (STURDY), a randomized clinical trial funded by the National Institute on Aging, testing the effect of differing vitamin D3 doses on fall risk in older adults. STURDY occurred between July 2015 and May 2019. Secondary analysis occurred in 2022. Participants were community-dwelling adults, 70 years or older. In the orthostatic hypotension assessment, participants stood upright from supine position and underwent six standing blood pressure measurements (M1-M6) in two clusters of three measurements (immediately and 3 min after standing). Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the relationship between orthostatic hypotension at each measurement and subsequent falls. Participants were followed until the earlier of their 24-month visit or study completion.

RESULTS

Orthostatic hypotension occurred in 32% of assessments at M1, and only 16% at M5 and M6. Orthostatic hypotension from average immediate (M1-3) and average delayed (M4-6) measurements, respectively, predicted higher fall risk (M1-3 = 1.65 [1.08, 2.52]; M4-6 = 1.73 [1.03, 2.91]) (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]). However, among individual measurements, only orthostatic hypotension at M5 (1.84 [1.16, 2.93]) and M6 (1.85 [1.17, 2.91]) predicted higher fall risk. Participants with orthostatic hypotension at M1 (3.07 [1.48, 6.38]) and M2 (3.72 [1.72, 8.03]) were more likely to have reported orthostatic symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Orthostatic hypotension was most prevalent and symptomatic immediately within 1-2 min after standing, but more informative for fall risk after 4.5 min. Clinicians may consider both intervals when assessing for orthostatic hypotension.

Strategies for Improving Enrollment of Diverse Populations with a Focus on Lipid-Lowering Clinical Trials

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We review under-representation of key demographic groups in cardiovascular clinical trials, focusing on lipid-lowering trials. We outline multilevel strategies to recruit and retain diverse populations in cardiovascular trials.

RECENT FINDINGS

Barriers to participation in trials occur at the study, participant, health system, sponsor, and policy level, requiring a multilevel approach to effectively increase participation of under-represented groups in research. Increasing the representation of marginalized and under-represented groups in leadership positions in clinical trials can ensure that their perspectives and experiences are considered. Trial design should prioritize patient- and community-indicated needs. Women and individuals from racially/ethnically diverse populations remain under-represented in lipid-lowering and other cardiovascular clinical trials relative to their disease burden in the population. This limits the generalizability of trial results to the broader population in clinical practice. Collaboration between community stakeholders, researchers, and community members can facilitate shared learning about trials and build trust.

Development of a computable phenotype using electronic health records for venous thromboembolism in medical inpatients: the Medical Inpatient Thrombosis and Hemostasis study

Background

Accurate and efficient methods to identify venous thromboembolism (VTE) events in hospitalized people are needed to support large-scale studies. Validated computable phenotypes using a specific combination of discrete, searchable elements in electronic health records to identify VTE and distinguish between hospital-acquired (HA)-VTE and present-on-admission (POA)-VTE would greatly facilitate the study of VTE, obviating the need for chart review.

Objectives

To develop and validate computable phenotypes for POA- and HA-VTE in adults hospitalized for medical reasons.

Methods

The population included admissions to medical services from 2010 to 2019 at an academic medical center. POA-VTE was defined as VTE diagnosed within 24 hours of admission, and HA-VTE as VTE identified more than 24 hours after admission. Using discharge diagnosis codes, present-on-admission flags, imaging procedures, and medication administration records, we iteratively developed computable phenotypes for POA-VTE and HA-VTE. We assessed the performance of the phenotypes using manual chart review and survey methodology.

Results

Among 62,468 admissions, 2693 had any VTE diagnosis code. Using survey methodology, 230 records were reviewed to validate the computable phenotypes. Based on the computable phenotypes, the incidence of POA-VTE was 29.4 per 1000 admissions and that of HA-VTE was 3.6 per 1000 admissions. The POA-VTE computable phenotype had positive predictive value and sensitivity of 88.8% (95% CI, 79.8%-94.0%) and 99.1% (95% CI, 94.0%- 99.8%), respectively. Corresponding values for the HA-VTE computable phenotype were 84.2% (95% CI, 60.8%-94.8%) and 72.3% (95% CI, 40.9%-90.8%).

Conclusion

We developed computable phenotypes for HA-VTE and POA-VTE with adequate positive predictive value and sensitivity. This phenotype can be used in electronic health record data-based research.

The relative risk of bleeding after medical hospitalization: the medical inpatient thrombosis and hemorrhage study

BACKGROUND

Clinically relevant bleeding risk in discharged medical patients is underestimated and leads to rehospitalization, morbidity, and mortality. Studies assessing this risk are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a computable phenotype for clinically relevant bleeding using electronic health record (EHR) data and quantify the relative and absolute risks of this bleeding after medical hospitalization.

METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study of people receiving their primary care at sites affiliated with an academic medical center in northwest Vermont, United States. We developed a computable phenotype using EHR data (diagnosis codes, procedure codes, laboratory, and transfusion data) and validated it by manual chart review. Cox proportional hazard models with hospitalization modeled as a time-varying covariate were used to estimate clinically relevant bleeding risk.

RESULTS

The computable phenotype had a positive predictive value of 80% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The bleeding rate in individuals with no medical hospitalizations in the past 3 months was 2.9 per 1000 person-years versus 98.9 per 1000 person-years in those who were discharged in the past 3 months. This translates into a hazard ratio (95% CI) of clinically relevant bleeding of 22.9 (18.9, 27.7), 13.0 (10.0, 16.9), and 6.8 (4.7, 9.8) over the first, second, and third months after discharge, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a computable phenotype for clinically relevant bleeding and determined its relative and absolute risk in the 3 months after medical hospitalization discharge. The high rates of bleeding observed underscore the clinical importance of capturing and further studying bleeding after medical discharge.

Effect of Personalized Accelerated Pacing on Quality of Life, Physical Activity, and Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Preclinical and Overt Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: The myPACE Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) with a pacemaker may benefit from a higher, more physiologic backup heart rate than the nominal 60 beats per minute (bpm) setting.

Objective

To assess the effects of a moderately accelerated personalized backup heart rate compared with 60 bpm (usual care) in patients with preexisting pacemaker systems that limit pacemaker-mediated dyssynchrony.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This blinded randomized clinical trial enrolled patients with stage B and C HFpEF from the University of Vermont Medical Center pacemaker clinic between June 2019 and November 2020. Analysis was modified intention to treat.

Interventions

Participants were randomly assigned to personalized accelerated pacing or usual care and were followed up for 1 year. The personalized accelerated pacing heart rate was calculated using a resting heart rate algorithm based on height and modified by ejection fraction.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the serial change in Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) score. Secondary end points were changes in N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels, pacemaker-detected physical activity, atrial fibrillation from baseline, and adverse clinical events.

Results

Overall, 107 participants were randomly assigned to the personalized accelerated pacing (n = 50) or usual care (n = 57) groups. The median (IQR) age was 75 (69-81) years, and 48 (48%) were female. Over 1-year follow-up, the median (IQR) pacemaker-detected heart rate was 75 (75-80) bpm in the personalized accelerated pacing arm and 65 (63-68) bpm in usual care. MLHFQ scores improved in the personalized accelerated pacing group (median [IQR] baseline MLHFQ score, 26 [8-45]; at 1 month, 15 [2-25]; at 1 year, 9 [4-21]; P < .001) and worsened with usual care (median [IQR] baseline MLHFQ score, 19 [6-42]; at 1 month, 23 [5-39]; at 1 year, 27 [7-52]; P = .03). In addition, personalized accelerated pacing led to improved changes in NT-proBNP levels (mean [SD] decrease of 109 [498] pg/dL vs increase of 128 [537] pg/dL with usual care; P = .02), activity levels (mean [SD], +47 [67] minutes per day vs -22 [35] minutes per day with usual care; P < .001), and device-detected atrial fibrillation (27% relative risk reduction compared with usual care; P = .04) over 1-year of follow-up. Adverse clinical events occurred in 4 patients in the personalized accelerated pacing group and 11 patients in usual care.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, among patients with HFpEF and pacemakers, treatment with a moderately accelerated, personalized pacing rate was safe and improved quality of life, NT-proBNP levels, physical activity, and atrial fibrillation compared with the usual 60 bpm setting.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04721314.

Abstract MP57: Coagulation Factor IX and Incident Diabetes Risk: The REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study

Introduction: A prothrombotic state is implicated in the vascular complications of type 2 diabetes (DM), and such complications disproportionately affect Black compared to White adults. However, it is not known if this is due to DM or whether coagulation factor levels are related to DM incidence. Higher coagulation factor IX (FIX) was related to increased risk of CHD and stroke among Black but not White participants in the REGARDS cohort. We hypothesized higher FIX antigen would be associated with incident DM risk, with stronger relationships in Black versus White adults.

Methods: REGARDS enrolled 30,239 Black and White adults from across the contiguous US from 2003-2006 with a second in-home visit from 2013-2016. The Biomarkers as MEDiators of Racial Disparities in Risk Factors (BioMedioR) nested cohort study included 4,400 participants who completed both visits, balanced on race and sex. Modified Poisson regression models estimated the RR of incident DM per 1-SD increment log FIX. We tested for a FIX-by-race interaction a priori due to differential associations of FIX with CHD and stroke by race in REGARDS.

Results: Among 3,381 participants without baseline DM (mean age 63 years, 44% Black race, 51% women), 456 (13.5%) developed incident DM over 9.5-years. Adjusting for age, sex, and race, there was a significant difference in the association of FIX with DM by race (p-interaction<0.01). As shown in the Figure, adjusted for age and sex (Model 1), the RR (95% CI) for incident DM was 1.19 (1.05, 1.34) for Black adults and 1.49 (1.23, 1.81) for White adults. Adjusting for clinical risk factors (Model 2) fully attenuated this association for Black adults, and further adjusting for behavioral factors (Model 3) fully attenuated this association for Black and White adults.

Conclusions: Higher FIX levels were associated with incident DM risk. Relationships between FIX and incident DM were stronger for White than Black adults. The FIX-DM association may be due to adverse clinical and behavioral risk factors.

Abstract P150: Residential Segregation and Hypertension Risk in Black and White Americans

Introduction: Black adults experience the highest hypertension burden of any American group. Evidence indicates social factors adversely affecting Black people explain some of the excess hypertension burden. It’s unclear whether residential segregation, a key cause of health inequities, has a differential impact on Black and White people.

Hypothesis: The magnitude of the association of residential segregation and risk of incident hypertension will be greater in Black than White people.

Methods: Our sample included 6,143 Black and White REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study participants without prevalent hypertension (2003-7), and with a follow-up visit 9.3 years later. Baseline county-level segregation was measured with the (1) dissimilarity index (DI, the difference in race distribution of census tracts relative to their county), (2) isolation index (ISI, the degree to which Black people are exposed only to one another in a county), and (3) interaction index (ITI, the degree to which Black people are exposed to White people in a county). Modified Poisson regression estimated the risk ratios (RR) of incident hypertension per SD increment of baseline residential segregation.

Results: The mean (SD) age was 61(8) years for Black people and 62(8) years for White people. Hypertension incidence was 46% for Black people and 33% for White people. There was no

association of any of the three measures of residential segregation (DI, ISI and ITI) with incident hypertension, with RRs all around 1.0 ( Figure ).

Conclusions: Three measures of residential segregation were not associated with incident hypertension risk in Black and White participants of the REGARDS cohort. Findings differ from a previous study that reported that a measure of racial clustering was associated with higher risk of hypertension in Black people. Taken together, findings suggest that, in Black people, different domains of residential segregation capture factors related differently to hypertension development.

Validating cuffless continuous blood pressure monitoring devices

Cuff-based home blood pressure (BP) devices, which have been the standard for BP monitoring for decades, are limited by physical discomfort, convenience, and their ability to capture BP variability and patterns between intermittent readings. In recent years, cuffless BP devices, which do not require cuff inflation around a limb, have entered the market, offering the promise of continuous beat-to-beat measurement of BP. These devices take advantage of a variety of principles to determine BP, including (1) pulse arrival time, (2) pulse transit time, (3) pulse wave analysis, (4) volume clamping, and (5) applanation tonometry. Because BP is calculated indirectly, these devices require calibration with cuff-based devices at regular intervals. Unfortunately, the pace of regulation of these devices has failed to match the speed of innovation and direct availability to patient consumers. There is an urgent need to develop a consensus on standards by which cuffless BP devices can be tested for accuracy. In this narrative review, we describe the landscape of cuffless BP devices, summarize the current status of validation protocols, and provide recommendations for an ideal validation process for these devices.

Effects of Diet on 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk (from the DASH Trial)

Although modern risk estimators, such as the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equation, play a central role in the decisions of patients to start pharmacologic therapy to prevent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), there is limited evidence to inform expectations for 10-year ASCVD risk reduction from established lifestyle interventions. Using data from the original DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) trial, we determined the effects of adopting the DASH diet on 10-year ASCVD risk compared with adopting a control or a fruits and vegetables (F/V) diet. The DASH trial included 459 adults aged 22 to 75 years without CVD and not taking antihypertensive or diabetes mellitus medications, who were randomized to controlled feeding of a control diet, an F/V diet, or the DASH diet for 8 weeks. We determined 10-year ASCVD risk with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equation based on blood pressure and lipids measured before and after the 8-week intervention. Compared with the control diet, the DASH and F/V diets changed 10-year ASCVD risk by -10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] -14.4 to -5.9) and -9.9% (95% CI -14.0 to -5.5) respectively; these effects were more pronounced in women and Black adults. There was no difference between the DASH and F/V diets (-0.4%, 95% CI -6.9 to 6.5). ASCVD reductions attributable to the difference in systolic blood pressure alone were -14.6% (-17.3 to -11.7) with the DASH diet and -7.9% (-10.9 to -4.8) with the F/V diet, a net relative advantage of 7.2% greater relative reduction from DASH compared with F/V. This was offset by the effects on high-density lipoprotein of the DASH diet, which increased 10-year ASCVD by 8.8% (5.5 to 12.3) compared with the more neutral effect of the F/V diet of -1.9% (-5.0 to 1.2). In conclusion, compared with a typical American diet, the DASH and F/V diets reduced 10-year ASCVD risk scores by about 10% over 8 weeks. These findings are informative for counseling patients on both choices of diet and expectations for 10-year ASCVD risk reduction.

D-dimer and the risk of hypertension: The REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke Cohort Study

Background

Reasons for increased risk of hypertension in Black compared with White people are only partly understood. D-dimer, a thrombo-inflammatory marker higher in Black individuals, is also higher in people with hypertension. However, the impact of D-dimer on racial disparities in risk of incident hypertension has not been studied.

Objectives

To assess whether D-dimer is associated with the risk of incident hypertension, whether the association between D-dimer and the risk of incident hypertension differs by race, and whether the biology reflected by D-dimer explains racial disparities in the risk of incident hypertension.

Methods

This study included 1867 participants in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort study without baseline hypertension and with a second visit 9.4 years after baseline. Risk ratios of incident hypertension by baseline D-dimer level were estimated, a D-dimer-by-race interaction was tested, and the mediating effect of D-dimer (which represents underlying biological processes) on the association of race and hypertension risk was assessed.

Results

The risk of incident hypertension was 47% higher in persons in the top quartile than in those in the bottom quartile of D-dimer (risk ratio [RR]: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.23-1.76). The association was partly attenuated after adjusting for sociodemographic and adiposity-related risk factors (RR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.02-1.47). The association of D-dimer and hypertension did not differ by race, and D-dimer did not attenuate the racial difference in the risk of incident hypertension.

Conclusion

D-dimer concentration reflects pathophysiology related to the development of hypertension. Specific mechanisms require further study and may involve adiposity.

Associations of Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Cognitive Characteristics With Mobile Health Access: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Background

Mobile health (mHealth) has an emerging role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. This study evaluated possible inequities in mHealth access in older adults.

Methods and Results

mHealth access was assessed from 2019 to 2020 in MESA (Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) telephone surveys of 2796 participants aged 62 to 102 years. A multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for general health status assessed associations of mHealth access measures with relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and cognitive characteristics. There were lower odds of all access measures with older age (odds ratios [ORs], 0.37–0.59 per 10 years) and annual income <$50 000 (versus ≥$50 000 ORs, 0.55–0.62), and higher odds with higher Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument Score (ORs, 1.22–1.29 per 5 points). Men (versus women) had higher odds of internet access (OR, 1.32 [95% CI,1.05–1.66]) and computing device ownership (OR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.05–1.63]) but lower fitness tracker ownership odds (OR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.49–0.89]). For internet access and computing device ownership, we saw lower odds for Hispanic participants (versus White participants OR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.44–0.85]; OR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.50–0.95]) and less than a high school education (versus bachelor's degree or higher OR, 0.27 [95% CI, 0.18–0.40]; OR, 0.32 [95% CI, 0.28–0.62]). For internet access, lower odds were seen for Black participants (versus White participants OR, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.47–0.86]) and other health insurance (versus health maintenance organization/private OR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.47–0.74]). Chinese participants (versus White participants) had lower internet access odds (OR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.44–0.91]) but higher computing device ownership odds (OR, 1.87 [95% CI, 1.28–2.77]).

Conclusions

Among older‐age adults, mHealth access varied by major demographic, socioeconomic, and cognitive characteristics, suggesting a digital divide. Novel mHealth interventions should consider individual access barriers.

Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/; Unique identifier: NCT00005487.

Lipoprotein(a) and the Risk for Coronary Heart Disease and Ischemic Stroke Events Among Black and White Adults With Cardiovascular Disease

Background

It is unclear whether lipoprotein(a) is associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and ischemic stroke events in White and Black adults with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

Methods and Results

We conducted a case‐cohort analysis, including Black and White REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) study participants ≥45 years of age with prevalent ASCVD (ie, CHD or stroke) at baseline between 2003 and 2007. Baseline lipoprotein(a) molar concentration was measured in participants with ASCVD who experienced a CHD event by December 2017 (n=1166) or an ischemic stroke by September 2019 (n=492) and in a random subcohort of participants with prevalent ASCVD (n=1948). The hazard ratio (HR) for CHD events per 1 SD (1.5 units) higher log‐transformed lipoprotein(a) was 1.26 (95% CI, 1.02–1.56) among Black participants and 1.16 (95% CI, 1.02–1.31) among White participants (P value comparing HRs, 0.485). The HR for CHD events per 1 SD higher log‐lipoprotein(a) within subgroups with hs‐CRP (high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein) ≥2 and <2 mg/L was 1.31 (95% CI, 0.99–1.73) and 1.23 (95% CI, 0.85–1.80), respectively (P value comparing HRs, 0.836), among Black participants, and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.91–1.27) and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.10–1.70), respectively (P value comparing HRs, 0.088), among White participants. There was no evidence that the association between lipoprotein(a) and CHD events differed by statin use. There was no evidence of an association between lipoprotein(a) and ischemic stroke events among Black or White participants.

Conclusions

Higher lipoprotein(a) levels were associated with an increased risk for CHD events in Black and White adults with ASCVD.

C-reactive Protein and Racial Differences in Type 2 Diabetes Incidence: The REGARDS Study

CONTEXT

Black adults experience more type 2 diabetes mellitus and higher inflammatory markers, including C-reactive protein (CRP), than White adults. Inflammatory markers are associated with risk of incident diabetes but the impact of inflammation on racial differences in incident diabetes is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed whether CRP mediated the Black-White incident diabetes disparity.

METHODS

The REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study enrolled 30 239 US Black and White adults aged ≥45 years in 2003-2007 with a second visit approximately 10 years later. Among participants without baseline diabetes, adjusted sex- and race-stratified risk ratios for incident diabetes at the second visit by CRP level were calculated using modified Poisson regression. Inverse odds weighting estimated the percent mediation of the racial disparity by CRP.

RESULTS

Of 11 073 participants without baseline diabetes (33% Black, 67% White), 1389 (12.5%) developed diabetes. Black participants had higher CRP at baseline and greater incident diabetes than White participants. Relative to CRP < 3 mg/L, CRP ≥ 3 mg/L was associated with greater risk of diabetes in all race-sex strata. Black participants had higher risk of diabetes at CRP < 3 mg/L, but not at CRP ≥ 3 mg/L. In women, CRP mediated 10.0% of the racial difference in incident diabetes. This mediation was not seen in men.

CONCLUSION

Higher CRP is a risk factor for incident diabetes, but the excess burden of diabetes in Black adults was only seen in those with lower CRP, suggesting that inflammation is unlikely to be the main driver of this racial disparity.

Establishing a National Cardiovascular Disease Surveillance System in the United States Using Electronic Health Record Data: Key Strengths and Limitations

Cardiovascular disease surveillance involves quantifying the evolving population-level burden of cardiovascular outcomes and risk factors as a data-driven initial step followed by the implementation of interventional strategies designed to alleviate this burden in the target population. Despite widespread acknowledgement of its potential value, a national surveillance system dedicated specifically to cardiovascular disease does not currently exist in the United States. Routinely collected health care data such as from electronic health records (EHRs) are a possible means of achieving national surveillance. Accordingly, this article elaborates on some key strengths and limitations of using EHR data for establishing a national cardiovascular disease surveillance system. Key strengths discussed include the: (1) ubiquity of EHRs and consequent ability to create a more "national" surveillance system, (2) existence of a common data infrastructure underlying the health care enterprise with respect to data domains and the nomenclature by which these data are expressed, (3) longitudinal length and detail that define EHR data when individuals repeatedly patronize a health care organization, and (4) breadth of outcomes capable of being surveilled with EHRs. Key limitations discussed include the: (1) incomplete ascertainment of health information related to health care-seeking behavior and the disconnect of health care data generated at separate health care organizations, (2) suspect data quality resulting from the default information-gathering processes within the clinical enterprise, (3) questionable ability to surveil patients through EHRs in the absence of documented interactions, and (4) the challenge in interpreting temporal trends in health metrics, which can be obscured by changing clinical and administrative processes.

Pro-neurotensin/Neuromedin N and Hypertension Risk: A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Neurotensin, a neuropeptide with direct cardiac effects, has been associated with prospective risk of hypertension-related conditions through measurement of its precursor, pro-neurotensin/neuromedin N (pro-NT/NMN). Its association with incident hypertension has not been evaluated.

METHODS

From 2003 to 2007, the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study enrolled 30,239 Black or White adults age ≥45. Pro-NT/NMN was measured in 1,692 participants without baseline hypertension (self-reported antihypertensive use or blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg) who underwent follow-up assessment in 2013-2016. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a lower threshold (≥130/80 mm Hg) to define hypertension. Three robust Poisson regression models were fitted to risk of incident hypertension, adding demographics, cardiometabolic risk factors, and dietary covariates.

RESULTS

Six hundred and fourteen participants developed hypertension over 9.4 years of follow-up. Pro-NT/NMN ranged from 14 to 1,246 pmol/l, with median [interquartile range] 154 [112, 206] pmol/l. Pro-NT/NMN was not associated with hypertension overall (fully adjusted incidence rate ratio per SD increment log pro-NT/NMN 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.95-1.11). Results of sensitivity analysis did not differ substantially.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline pro-NT/NMN was not associated with incident hypertension. This may be a result of neurotensin's long-term interactions with other molecular regulators of blood pressure, such as the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system.

Biomarkers as MEDiators of racial disparities in risk factors (BioMedioR): Rationale, study design, and statistical considerations

PURPOSE

Relative to White adults, Black adults have a substantially higher prevalence of hypertension and diabetes, both key risk factors for stroke, cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, and dementia. Blood biomarkers have shown promise in identifying contributors to racial disparities in many chronic diseases.

METHODS

We outline the study design and related statistical considerations for a nested cohort study, the Biomarker Mediators of Racial Disparities in Risk Factors (BioMedioR) study, within the 30,239-person biracial REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study (2003-present). Selected biomarkers will be assessed for contributions to racial disparities in risk factor development over median 9.4 years of follow-up, with initial focus on hypertension, and diabetes. Here we outline study design decisions and statistical considerations for the sampling of 4,400 BioMedioR participants.

RESULTS

The population for biomarker assessment was selected using a random sample study design balanced across race and sex to provide the optimal opportunity to describe association of biomarkers with the development of hypertension and diabetes. Descriptive characteristics of the BioMedioR sample and analytic plans are provided for this nested cohort study.

CONCLUSIONS

This nested biomarker study will examine pathways with the target to help explain racial differences in hypertension and diabetes incidence.

Cancer Care in the Wake of a Cyberattack: How to Prepare and What to Expect

PURPOSE

Cyberattacks targeting health care organizations are becoming more frequent and affect all aspects of care delivery. Cancer care is particularly susceptible to major disruptions because of the potential of immediate and long-term consequences for patients who often rely on timely diagnostic testing and regular administration of systemic therapy in addition to other local treatment modalities to cure or control their diseases. On October 28, 2020, a cyberattack was launched on the University of Vermont Health Network with wide-ranging consequences for oncology, including loss of access to all network intranet servers, e-mail communications, and the electronic medical record (EMR).

METHODS

This review details the immediate challenges faced by hematology and oncology during the cyberattack. The impact and response on inpatient, outpatient, and special patient populations are described. Steps that other academic- and community-based oncology practices can take to lessen the brunt of such an assault are suggested.

RESULTS

The two areas of immediate impact after the cyberattack were communications and lack of EMR access. The oncology-specific impact included loss of the individualized EMR chemotherapy plan templates and electronic safeguards built into multistep treatment preparation and delivery. With loss of access to schedules, basic patient information, encrypted communications platforms and radiology, and laboratory and pharmacy services, clinical outpatient care delivery was reduced by 40%. The infusion visit volume dropped by 52% in the first week and new patients could not access necessary services for timely diagnostic evaluation, requiring the creation of command centers to oversee ethical and transparent triage and allocation of systemic therapies and address new patient referrals. This included appropriate transfer of patients to alternate sites to minimize delays. Inpatient care including transitions of care was particularly challenging and addressing patient populations whose survival might be affected by delays in care.

CONCLUSION

Oncology health care leaders and providers should be aware of the potential impact of a cyberattack on cancer care delivery and preventively develop processes to mitigate the impact.

Health care experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic by race and social determinants of health among adults age ≥ 58 years in the REGARDS study

BACKGROUND

Understanding health care experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic may provide insights into patient needs and inform policy. The objective of this study was to describe health care experiences by race and social determinants of health.

METHODS

We conducted a telephone survey (July 6, 2020-September 4, 2021) among 9492 Black and White participants in the longitudinal REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort study, age 58-105 years, from the continental United States. Among participants with symptoms of COVID-19, outcomes were: 1. Sought care or advice for the illness; 2. Received a SARS-CoV-2 test for the illness; and 3. Tested positive. Among participants without symptoms of COVID-19, outcomes were: 1. Wanted a test; 2. Wanted and received a test; 3. Did not want but received a test; and 4. Tested positive. We examined these outcomes overall and in subgroups defined by race, household income, marital status, education, area-level poverty, rural residence, Medicaid expansion, public health infrastructure ranking, and residential segregation.

RESULTS

The average age of participants was 76.8 years, 36% were Black, and 57% were female. Among participants with COVID-19 symptoms (n = 697), 74% sought care or advice for the illness, 50% received a SARS-CoV-2 test, and 25% had a positive test (50% of those tested). Among participants without potential COVID-19 symptoms (n = 8795), 29% wanted a SARS-CoV-2 test, 22% wanted and received a test, 8% did not want but received a test, and 1% tested positive; a greater percentage of participants who were Black compared to White wanted (38% vs 23%, p < 0.001) and received tests (30% vs 18%, p < 0.001) and tested positive (1.4% vs 0.8%, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

In this national study of older US adults, many participants with potential COVID-19 symptoms and asymptomatic participants who desired testing did not receive COVID-19 testing.

A/B design testing of a clinical trial recruitment website: A pilot study to enhance the enrollment of older adults

INTRODUCTION

Online tools are increasingly utilized in clinical trial recruitment. A/B testing is an effective technology used in political campaigns and commercial marketing to improve contributions or sales. However, to our knowledge, A/B has not been described in the context of clinical trial recruitment.

METHODS

Two A/B testing experiments were implemented on the recruitment website of the Study To Understand Fall Reduction and Vitamin D in You (STURDY), a response-adaptive, two-stage, randomized controlled trial. Commercial A/B platforms randomized web-users to different versions of the trial's website landing page; Experiment 1 included two infographic versions and Experiment 2 included three video versions. We compared web-user engagement metrics between each version and the original landing page. We determined the effect of each version compared to the original landing page on the likelihood of a web-user to (1) request more information about the trial, (2) complete a screening visit, or (3) enroll in the trial.

RESULTS

A total of 2605 and 374 web-users visited the trial's website during Experiment 1 and 2, respectively. Response to the online interest form significantly differed by infographic version in Experiment 1. The number of individuals who engaged with website content and pages significantly differed by video in Experiment 2.

CONCLUSION

In a pilot study implementing A/B testing of a clinical trial recruitment website, different versions of the website led to differences in web-user engagement and interest in the trial. A/B testing tools offer a promising approach to test the effectiveness of clinical trial recruitment materials and to optimize recruitment campaigns.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. The trial registration number is NCT02166333. The URL is: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02166333 Trial Registration Number: NCT02166333 Trial Register: ClinicalTrials.gov.

Prescription opioid policies and associations with opioid overdose and related adverse effects

BACKGROUND

United States (US) policies to mitigate the opioid epidemic focus on reducing access to prescription opioids to prevent overdoses. We examined the impact of state policies in Vermont (July 2017) and Maine (July 2016) on opioid overdoses and opioid-related adverse effects.

METHODS

Study population included patients 15 years and older in all-payer claims of Vermont (N = 597,683; Jan.2016-Dec.2018) and Maine (N = 1,370,960; Oct.2015-Dec.2017). We used interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of opioid prescribing policies on monthly opioid overdose rate and opioid-related adverse effects rate. We used the International Classification of Disease-10-CM to identify overdoses (T40.0 × 1-T40.4 × 4, T40.601-T40.604, T40.691-T40.694) and adverse effects (T40.0 × 5, T40.2 × 5-T40.4 × 5, T40.605, T40.695).

RESULTS

Immediately after the policy, the level of Vermont's opioid overdose rate increased by 34% (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.09, 1.65) while the level of opioid-related adverse effects rate decreased by 29% (95% CI: 0.58, 0.87). In Maine, there was no level change in opioid overdose rate, but the slope of the adverse effects rate after the policy decreased by 3.5% (95% CI: 0.94, 0.99). These results varied within age and rurality subgroups in both states.

CONCLUSION

While the decrease in rate of adverse effects following the policy changes is promising, the increase in Vermont's opioid overdose rate may suggest there is an association between policy implementation and short-term risk to public health.

Recruitment of Black Adults into Cardiovascular Disease Trials

Background Although disproportionately affected by cardiovascular disease, Black adults remain underrepresented in clinical trials. The National Institutes of Health recommends that studies define goals for recruitment of underrepresented populations. However, the extent to which cardiovascular trials incorporate evidence-based recruitment strategies in their protocols is understudied. Methods and Results We systematically reviewed National Institutes of Health-funded cardiovascular clinical trials registered in ClinicalTrials.gov between 2000 and 2019. Based on publicly available or requested protocols, we focused on enrollment of Black adults as well as the following recruitment strategies: community-based, electronic medical record-based, and provider-based recruitment. A total of 100 clinical trials focused on cardiovascular disease were included in our analysis, of which 62% had published protocols, and 46% of trials had enrolled populations that were <25% Black. In our analysis of available trial protocols, 21% of trials defined a recruitment target for underrepresented groups; however, only one study reported achieving its enrollment goal. While 13% of trial protocols referenced community-based recruitment strategies, 5% explicitly mentioned involving community members in the trial design process. Defining recruitment targets was associated with higher enrollment of Black participants. Conclusions Black adults are underrepresented in National Institutes of Health-funded cardiovascular trials, and the majority of these trials did not specify a Black enrollment target, did not meet targets, and largely did not report specific plans to enroll Black adults in their studies. Future interventions should target trial design and planning phases before study initiation to address these enrollment disparities.

Television viewing, physical activity and venous thromboembolism risk: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study

INTRODUCTION

Television (TV) viewing may be associated with increased venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk independent of VTE risk factors including physical activity. This association was assessed in a large biracial US cohort of Black and White adults.

METHODS

Between 2003 and 2007 The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study recruited 30,239 participants aged ≥45 years, who were surveyed for baseline TV viewing and followed for VTE events. TV viewing was categorized as <2 hours (light), 2 to 4 hours (moderate), and ≥4 hours (heavy) per day. Physical activity was classified as poor, intermediate, or ideal based on reported weekly activity. Hazard ratios of TV viewing and physical activity were calculated adjusting for VTE risk factors. Multiple imputation for missingness was used as a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Over 96,813 person-years (median: 5.06 years) of follow-up there were 214 VTE events. Heavy TV viewing was not associated with VTE risk in the unadjusted and fully adjusted model (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62, 1.36]). Ideal physical activity trended toward a reduced VTE risk (HR: 0.71 [95%CI: 0.51, 1.01]). There was no evidence of an interaction between TV viewing, physical activity, and risk of VTE.

CONCLUSIONS

In this contemporary racially and geographically diverse US cohort, there was no association between TV viewing and VTE risk, before and after accounting for physical activity. The high burden of traditional VTE risk factors in REGARDS may mask any association of TV viewing with VTE, or TV viewing may have only a modest association with VTE risk.

Pro-Neurotensin/Neuromedin N and Risk of Incident Metabolic Syndrome and Diabetes Mellitus in the REGARDS Cohort

CONTEXT

The peptide neurotensin is implicated in insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus (DM), and cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE

We studied the association of neurotensin's stable precursor, pro-neurotensin/neuromedin N (pro-NT/NMN) with incident metabolic syndrome (MetS) and DM.

METHODS

We included 3772 participants from the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study who completed the baseline exam (2003-2007), the follow-up exam (2013-2016), and had pro-NT/NMN measured by immunoassay. Weighted logistic regression models were fitted to incident DM, incident MetS, and each MetS component, separately, incorporating demographics, metabolic risk factors, homeostasis model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and diet scores. Incident MetS was defined by 3 or more harmonized criteria at follow-up in those with fewer than 3 at baseline. Incident DM was defined by use of hypoglycemic drugs/insulin, fasting glucose 126 mg/dL or greater, or random glucose 200 mg/dL or greater in those without these at baseline.

RESULTS

Median (IQR) plasma pro-NT/NMN was 160 pmol/L (118-218 pmol/L). A total of 564 (of 2770 without baseline MetS) participants developed MetS, and 407 (of 3030 without baseline DM) developed DM. Per SD higher log-pro-NT/NMN, the demographic-adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI of incident MetS was 1.22 (1.11-1.35), 1.16 (1.00-1.35) for incident low high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and 1.25 (1.11-1.40) for incident dysglycemia. The association of pro-NT/NMN with MetS was attenuated in the model adding HOMA-IR (OR per SD log-pro-NT/NMN 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00-1.30). There was no association with incident DM (OR per SD log-pro-NT/NMN 1.06; 95% CI, 0.94-1.19).

CONCLUSION

Pro-NT/NMN was associated with MetS and 2 components, dysglycemia and low HDL, likely explained by insulin resistance.

Health Information Technology Use Among Persons With Self-reported Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: Analysis of the 2011-2018 National Health Interview Survey

BACKGROUND

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Health information technologies (HITs) have recently emerged as a viable intervention to mitigate the burden of ASCVD. Approximately 60% of US adults report searching the internet for health information; however, previous research has not examined the prevalence of general technology or HIT use among adults with and without ASCVD. In addition, social determinants in HIT use among adults with ASCVD are not well understood.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and social determinants of HIT use among US adults with versus without self-reported ASCVD.

METHODS

We pooled cross-sectional data from the 2011-2018 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to examine the general technology and HIT use among adults aged ≥18 years with and without self-reported ASCVD (coronary heart disease, stroke, or both). General technology use was defined as mobile phone ownership, internet use, and computer use. HIT use was defined as looking up health information on the internet, filling a web-based prescription, scheduling a medical appointment on the internet, communicating with a health care provider by email, or using web-based group chats to learn about health topics. We evaluated sociodemographic differences in HIT use among respondents by using Poisson regression. Analyses were weighted according to NHIS standards.

RESULTS

A total sample of 256,117 individuals were included, of which 2194 (0.9%) reported prior ASCVD. Among adults with prior ASCVD, the mean age was 70.6 (SD 11.5) years, and 47.4% (1048/2194) of the adults were females. General technology use differed between participants with and without prior ASCVD, with 36.0% (614/1826) and 76.2% (157,642/213,816) indicating internet usage and 24.6% (374/1575) and 60.7% (107,742/184,557) indicating using a computer every day, respectively. Similarly, adults with ASCVD were less likely to use HIT than those without ASCVD (515/2194, 25.1% vs 123,966/253,923, 51.0%; P<.001). Among adults with prior ASCVD, social determinants that were associated with HIT use included younger age, higher education, higher income, being employed, and being married.

CONCLUSIONS

HIT use was low among adults with a history of ASCVD, which may represent a barrier to delivering care via emerging HIT. Given the associations with social determinants such as income, education, and employment, targeted strategies and policies are needed to eliminate barriers to impact HIT usage.

C-Reactive Protein and Incident Hypertension in Black and White Americans in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

More inflammation is associated with greater risk incident hypertension, and Black United States (US) adults have excess burden of hypertension. We investigated whether increased inflammation as quantified by higher C-reactive protein (CRP) explains the excess incidence in hypertension experienced by Black US adults.

METHODS

We included 6,548 Black and White REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) participants without hypertension at baseline (2003-2007) who attended a second visit (2013-2016). Sex-stratified risk ratios (RRs) for incident hypertension at the second exam in Black compared to White individuals were estimated using Poisson regression adjusted for groups of factors known to partially explain the Black-White differences in incident hypertension. We calculated the percent mediation by CRP of the racial difference in hypertension.

RESULTS

Baseline CRP was higher in Black participants. The Black-White RR for incident hypertension in the minimally adjusted model was 1.33 (95% confidence interval 1.22, 1.44) for males and 1.15 (1.04, 1.27) for females. CRP mediated 6.6% (95% confidence interval 2.7, 11.3%) of this association in females and 19.7% (9.8, 33.2%) in males. In females, CRP no longer mediated the Black-White RR in a model including waist circumference and body mass index, while in males the Black-White difference was fully attenuated in models including income, education and dietary patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated CRP attenuated a portion of the unadjusted excess risk of hypertension in Black adults, but this excess risk was attenuated when controlling for measures of obesity in females and diet and socioeconomic factors in males. Inflammation related to these risk factors might explain part of the Black-White disparity in hypertension.

Influence of Opioid Prescription Policy on Overdoses and Related Adverse Effects in a Primary Care Population

BACKGROUND

In response to the opioid epidemic, many states have enacted policies limiting opioid prescriptions. There is a paucity of evidence of the impact of opioid prescribing interventions in primary care populations, including whether unintended consequences arise from limiting the availability of prescribed opioids.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to compare changes in opioid overdose and related adverse effects rate among primary care patients following the implementation of state-level prescribing policies.

DESIGN

A cohort of primary care patients within an interrupted time series model.

PARTICIPANTS

Electronic medical record data for 62,776 adult (18+ years) primary care patients from a major medical center in Vermont from January 1, 2016, to June 30, 2018.

INTERVENTIONS

State-level opioid prescription policy changes limiting dose and duration.

MAIN MEASURES

Changes in (1) opioid overdose rate and (2) opioid-related adverse effects rate per 100,000 person-months following the July 1, 2017, prescription policy change.

KEY RESULTS

Among primary care patients, there was no change in opioid overdose rate following implementation of the prescribing policy (incidence rate ratio; IRR: 0.64, 95% confidence interval; CI: 0.22-1.88). There was a 78% decrease in the opioid-related adverse effects rate following the prescribing policy (IRR: 0.22, 95%CI: 0.09-0.51). This association was moderated by opioid prescription history, with decreases observed among opioid-naïve patients (IRR: 0.18, 95%CI: 0.06-0.59) and among patients receiving chronic opioid prescriptions (IRR: 0.17, 95%CI: 0.03-0.99), but not among those with intermittent opioid prescriptions (IRR: 0.51, 95%CI: 0.09-2.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Limiting prescription opioids did not change the opioid overdose rate among primary care patients, but it reduced the rate of opioid-related adverse effects in the year following the state-level policy change, particularly among patients with chronic opioid prescription history and opioid-naïve patients. Limiting the quantity and duration of opioid prescriptions may have beneficial effects among primary care patients.

Higher Serum Urate Levels Are Associated With an Increased Risk for Sudden Cardiac Death

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association of serum urate (SU) levels with sudden cardiac death and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), separately, among adults without a history of CHD.

METHODS

We conducted a case-cohort analysis of Black and White participants aged ≥ 45 years enrolled in the REason for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study without a history of CHD at baseline between 2003 and 2007. Participants were followed for sudden cardiac death or incident CHD (i.e., myocardial infarction [MI] or death from CHD excluding sudden cardiac death) through December 31, 2013. Baseline SU was measured in a random sample of participants (n = 840) and among participants who experienced sudden cardiac death (n = 235) or incident CHD (n = 851) during follow-up.

RESULTS

Participants with higher SU levels were older and more likely to be male or Black. The crude HR (95% CI) per 1 mg/dL higher SU level was 1.26 (1.14-1.40) for sudden cardiac death and 1.17 (1.09-1.26) for incident CHD. After adjustment for age, sex, race, and cardiovascular risk factors, the HR (95% CI) per 1 mg/dL higher SU level was 1.19 (1.03-1.37) for sudden cardiac death and 1.05 (0.96-1.15) for incident CHD. HRs for sudden cardiac death were numerically higher among participants aged 45-64 vs ≥ 65 years, without vs with diabetes, and among those of White vs Black race, although P values for effect modification were all ≥ 0.05.

CONCLUSION

Higher SU levels were associated with an increased risk for sudden cardiac death but not with incident CHD.

Abstract 024: Effects Of Diet On 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Using The Pooled Cohort Equations Risk Calculator: Results From The Dash Trial

Background: The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet is known to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, but its effects on 10-year CVD risk based on the pooled cohort estimating equation has not been reported.

Objective: To determine the effects of adopting the DASH diet on 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk compared to a typical American (control) diet or a diet rich fruit and vegetables (F/V), but otherwise similar to control.

Methods: The DASH trial was a 3-arm, parallel-group, randomized controlled feeding trial of 459 adults aged 22 to 75 years without CVD and not taking anti-hypertensive or diabetes medications. These participants were randomized to a control diet, a F/V diet, or the DASH diet for 8 weeks. Weight was kept constant. Blood pressure (BP) and lipids were measured at baseline and at 8-weeks to compare 10-year ASCVD risk scores across dietary assignments. Comparisons were performed via linear regression adjusted for baseline ASCVD risk score.

Results: The mean age of participants was 45 years; 49% were women, 60% were black, and 10% were current smokers. Mean systolic BP was 131.3±10.8 mm Hg, mean LDL cholesterol was 121±32 mg/dL, and mean HDL cholesterol was 48±14 mg/dL. Both DASH and F/V diets shifted the distribution of ASCVD risk scores downward compared to the control diet ( Figure, Panel A ). Compared to the control diet, the DASH and F/V diets reduced 10-year ASCVD risk by 10.0% (95% CI: -17.7, -1.5; P = 0.02) and 11.7% (95% CI: -19.3, -3.3; P = 0.007) respectively ( Figure, Panel B ). There was no difference between the DASH and F/V diets (-1.9%; 95% CI: -10.3, 7.4; P = 0.68).

Conclusions: Compared to the control diet, the DASH and F/V diets reduced 10-year ASCVD risk, while the DASH and F/V had similar effects.

Abstract 065: Ultra-processed Food And Hypertension Incidence In The Regards Cohort

Background: A growing body of evidence demonstrates that diets high in ultra-processed food products (UPF)—ready-to-eat formulations of processed substances that have been extracted or refined from whole foods and that typically contain added flavors, colors, and other cosmetic additives -- lack nutrient quality and contribute to energy imbalance. However, few studies have examined the impact on hypertension, a diet-sensitive condition characterized by racial disparities across the disease spectrum. We sought to determine black-white differences in UPF consumption and associations with incident hypertension.

Methods: Data from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Disparities in Stroke (REGARDS) Cohort Study was used. Participants free of hypertension at baseline (2003-2007) who had complete food intake data and completed visit 2 (2013-2017) were included. The NOVA classification system was used to categorize participants food and drink into categories according to their level of processing, from 1 (minimally processed) to 4 (ultra-processed). The percent gram contribution of UPF to total grams consumed was calculated and used to create quartiles of UPF intake. The outcome, incident hypertension, was defined as systolic blood pressure of =>140 mm Hg or diastolic pressure =>90 mm Hg or taking antihypertensive medication at visit 2. Summary statistics were used to examine participant demographics by UPF consumption. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the hypothesis that UPF consumption is associated with incident hypertension and that the association varies by race.

Results: A total of 5,957 participants were included in analyses, 23 percent were Black and 77 White. Black participants had higher UPF intake compared to White participants. Thirty-eight percent of Black participants were in the top quartile of UPF consumption compared to 21 percent among White participants. Women, those with lower educational attainment, lower physical activity, and income below 35K were more likely to be in the top quartile of UPF consumption. Regression model results showed individuals in the top quartile of UPF consumption had 38 percent greater odds of incident hypertension (CI=1.11-1.53) after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics. Race-stratified model results showed that Blacks in the top quartile had 47 percent greater odds (CI=1.06-2.03) of incident hypertension. UPF consumption was not significantly associated with incident hypertension among Whites (OR=1.19, CI=0.99-1.43).

Conclusions: Findings demonstrate racial disparities in consumption of UPF and that disparities contribute to higher incident hypertension among Black persons. Results contribute to the growing evidence base needed to inform equitable food system policies, support healthier dietary consumption, and address hypertension disparities.

N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Longitudinal Risk of Hypertension

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a common condition that increases risk for future cardiovascular disease. N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is higher in individuals with hypertension, but studies of its association with hypertension risk have been mixed.

METHODS

The REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study enrolled 30,239 U.S. Black or White adults aged ≥45 years from 2003 to 2007. A subcohort included 4,400 participants who completed a second assessment in 2013-2016. NT-proBNP was measured by immunoassay in 1,323 participants without baseline hypertension, defined as blood pressure ≥140/90 or self-reported antihypertensive prescriptions. Two robust Poisson regression models assessed hypertension risk, yielding incidence rate ratios (IRRs): Model 1 included behavioral and demographic covariates and Model 2 added risk factors. A sensitivity analysis using a less conservative definition of hypertension (blood pressure ≥130/80 or self-reported antihypertensive prescriptions) was conducted.

RESULTS

Four hundred and sixty-six participants developed hypertension after mean follow-up of 9.4 years. NT-proBNP was not associated with hypertension (Model 2 IRR per SD log NT-proBNP 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.92-1.12), with no differences by sex, body mass index, age, or race. Similar findings were seen in lower-threshold sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP was not associated with incident hypertension in REGARDS; this did not differ by race or sex.

The Effects of Four Doses of Vitamin D Supplements on Falls in Older Adults : A Response-Adaptive, Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Vitamin D supplementation may prevent falls in older persons, but evidence is inconsistent, possibly because of dosage differences.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effects of 4 doses of vitamin D₃ supplements on falls.

DESIGN

2-stage Bayesian, response-adaptive, randomized trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02166333).

SETTING

2 community-based research units.

PARTICIPANTS

688 participants, aged 70 years and older, with elevated fall risk and a serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25-(OH)D] level of 25 to 72.5 nmol/L.

INTERVENTION

200 (control), 1000, 2000, or 4000 IU of vitamin D₃ per day. During the dose-finding stage, participants were randomly assigned to 1 of the 4 vitamin D₃ doses, and the best noncontrol dose for preventing falls was determined. After dose finding, participants previously assigned to receive noncontrol doses received the best dose, and new enrollees were randomly assigned to receive 200 IU/d or the best dose.

MEASUREMENTS

Time to first fall or death over 2 years (primary outcome).

RESULTS

During the dose-finding stage, the primary outcome rates were higher for the 2000- and 4000-IU/d doses than for the 1000-IU/d dose, which was selected as the best dose (posterior probability of being best, 0.90). In the confirmatory stage, event rates were not significantly different between participants with experience receiving the best dose (events and observation time limited to the period they were receiving 1000 IU/d; n = 308) and those randomly assigned to receive 200 IU/d (n = 339) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.94 [95% CI, 0.76 to 1.15]; P = 0.54). Analysis of falls with adverse outcomes suggested greater risk in the experience-with-best-dose group versus the 200-IU/d group (serious fall: HR, 1.87 [CI, 1.03 to 3.41]; fall with hospitalization: HR, 2.48 [CI, 1.13 to 5.46]).

LIMITATIONS

The control group received 200 IU of vitamin D₃ per day, not a placebo. Dose finding ended before the prespecified thresholds for dose suspension and dose selection were reached.

CONCLUSION

In older persons with elevated fall risk and low serum 25-(OH)D levels, vitamin D₃ supplementation at doses of 1000 IU/d or higher did not prevent falls compared with 200 IU/d. Several analyses raised safety concerns about vitamin D₃ doses of 1000 IU/d or higher.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Aging.

Electronic medical record-based cohort selection and direct-to-patient, targeted recruitment: early efficacy and lessons learned

OBJECTIVE

The study sought to characterize institution-wide participation in secure messaging (SM) at a large academic health network, describe our experience with electronic medical record (EMR)-based cohort selection, and discuss the potential roles of SM for research recruitment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Study teams defined eligibility criteria to create a computable phenotype, structured EMR data, to identify and recruit participants. Patients with SM accounts matching this phenotype received recruitment messages. We compared demographic characteristics across SM users and the overall health system. We also tabulated SM activation and use, characteristics of individual studies, and efficacy of the recruitment methods.

RESULTS

Of the 1 308 820 patients in the health network, 40% had active SM accounts. SM users had a greater proportion of white and non-Hispanic patients than nonactive SM users id. Among the studies included (n = 13), 77% recruited participants with a specific disease or condition. All studies used demographic criteria for their phenotype, while 46% (n = 6) used demographic, disease, and healthcare utilization criteria. The average SM response rate was 2.9%, with higher rates among condition-specific (3.4%) vs general health (1.4%) studies. Those studies with a more inclusive comprehensive phenotype had a higher response rate.

DISCUSSION

Target population and EMR queries (computable phenotypes) affect recruitment efficacy and should be considered when designing an EMR-based recruitment strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

SM guided by EMR-based cohort selection is a promising approach to identify and enroll research participants. Efforts to increase the number of active SM users and response rate should be implemented to enhance the effectiveness of this recruitment strategy.

Development and External Validation of a Machine Learning Tool to Rule Out COVID-19 Among Adults in the Emergency Department Using Routine Blood Tests: A Large, Multicenter, Real-World Study

Background

Conventional diagnosis of COVID-19 with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing (hereafter, PCR) is associated with prolonged time to diagnosis and significant costs to run the test. The SARS-CoV-2 virus might lead to characteristic patterns in the results of widely available, routine blood tests that could be identified with machine learning methodologies. Machine learning modalities integrating findings from these common laboratory test results might accelerate ruling out COVID-19 in emergency department patients.

Objective

We sought to develop (ie, train and internally validate with cross-validation techniques) and externally validate a machine learning model to rule out COVID 19 using only routine blood tests among adults in emergency departments.

Methods

Using clinical data from emergency departments (EDs) from 66 US hospitals before the pandemic (before the end of December 2019) or during the pandemic (March-July 2020), we included patients aged ≥20 years in the study time frame. We excluded those with missing laboratory results. Model training used 2183 PCR-confirmed cases from 43 hospitals during the pandemic; negative controls were 10,000 prepandemic patients from the same hospitals. External validation used 23 hospitals with 1020 PCR-confirmed cases and 171,734 prepandemic negative controls. The main outcome was COVID 19 status predicted using same-day routine laboratory results. Model performance was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve as well as sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value (NPV).

Results

Of 192,779 patients included in the training, external validation, and sensitivity data sets (median age decile 50 [IQR 30-60] years, 40.5% male [78,249/192,779]), AUROC for training and external validation was 0.91 (95% CI 0.90-0.92). Using a risk score cutoff of 1.0 (out of 100) in the external validation data set, the model achieved sensitivity of 95.9% and specificity of 41.7%; with a cutoff of 2.0, sensitivity was 92.6% and specificity was 59.9%. At the cutoff of 2.0, the NPVs at a prevalence of 1%, 10%, and 20% were 99.9%, 98.6%, and 97%, respectively.

Conclusions

A machine learning model developed with multicenter clinical data integrating commonly collected ED laboratory data demonstrated high rule-out accuracy for COVID-19 status, and might inform selective use of PCR-based testing.

Use of electronic recruitment methods in a clinical trial of adults with gout

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Electronic-based recruitment methods are increasingly utilized in clinical trials to recruit and enroll research participants. The cost-effectiveness of electronic-based methods and impact on sample generalizability is unknown. We compared recruitment yields, cost-effectiveness, and demographic characteristics across several electronic and traditional recruitment methods.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the diet gout trial recruitment campaign. The diet gout trial was a randomized, controlled, cross-over trial that examined the effects of a dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH)-like diet on uric acid levels in adults with gout. We used four electronic medical record and four non-electronic medical record-based recruitment methods to identify and recruit potentially eligible participants. We calculated the response rate, screening visit completion rate, and randomization rate for each method. We also determined cost per response, the screening, and randomization for each method. Finally, we compared the demographic characteristics among individuals who completed the screening visit by recruitment method.

RESULTS

Of the 294 adults who responded to the recruitment campaign, 51% were identified from electronic medical record-based methods. Patient portal messaging, an electronic medical record-based method, resulted in the highest response rate (4%), screening visit completion rate (37%), and randomization rate (21%) among these eight methods. Electronic medical record-based methods ($60) were more cost-effective per response than non-electronic medical record-based methods ($107). Electronic-based methods, including patient portal messaging and Facebook, had the highest proportion of White individuals screened (52% and 60%). Direct mail to non-active patient portal increased enrollment of traditionally under-represented groups, including both women and African Americans.

CONCLUSION

An electronic medical record-based recruitment strategy that utilized the electronic medical record for participant identification and postal mailing for participant outreach was cost-effective and increased participation of under-represented groups. This hybrid strategy represents a promising approach to improve the timely execution and broad generalizability of future clinical trials.

Life's Simple 7 and Incident Hypertension: The REGARDS Study

Background The Life's Simple 7 (LS7) metric incorporates health behaviors (body mass index, diet, smoking, physical activity) and health factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose) to estimate an individual's level of cardiovascular health. The association between cardiovascular health and incident hypertension is unresolved. Hypertension's threshold was recently lowered and it is unclear if better cardiovascular health is associated with lower risk of incident hypertension with the updated threshold or in a multirace cohort. We sought to assess the association between better LS7 score and risk of incident hypertension among Black and White adults using a 130/80 mm Hg hypertension threshold. Methods and Results We determined the association between LS7 metric and incident hypertension in the REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Disparities in Stroke) study, including participants free of baseline hypertension (2003-2007) who completed a second visit between 2013 and 2016. Hypertension was defined as systolic/diastolic blood pressure ≥130/80 mm Hg or antihypertensive medication use. Each LS7 component was assigned 0 (poor), 1 (intermediate), or 2 (ideal) points. We generated a 14-point score by summing points. Among 2930 normotensive participants (20% Black, 80% White), the median (25th-75th percentiles) LS7 total score was 9 (8-10) points. Over a median follow-up of 9 years, 42% developed hypertension. In the fully adjusted model, each 1-point higher LS7 score had a 6% lower risk of incident hypertension (risk ratio, 0.94 per 1 point; 95% CI, 0.92-0.96). Conclusions Better cardiovascular health was associated with lower risk of incident hypertension using a 130/80 mm Hg hypertension threshold among Black and White adults.

Gout is associated with an increased risk for incident heart failure among older adults: the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study

Background

Gout has been associated with a higher risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in some prior studies. Few studies have assessed the association of gout with incident heart failure (HF).

Methods

We analyzed data from 5713 black and white men and women ≥ 65.5 years of age in the population-based REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study who had Medicare coverage without a history of HF, CHD, or stroke at baseline between 2003 and 2007. Gout was defined by ≥ 1 hospitalization or ≥ 2 outpatient visits with a diagnosis code for gout in Medicare claims prior to each participant’s baseline study examination. REGARDS study participants were followed for HF hospitalization, CHD, stroke, and all-cause mortality as separate outcomes through December 31, 2016. Analyses were replicated in a random sample of 839,059 patients ≥ 65.5 years of age with Medicare coverage between January 1, 2008, and June 30, 2015, who were followed through December 31, 2017.

Results

Among REGARDS study participants included in the current analysis, the mean age at baseline was 72.6 years, 44.9% were men, 31.4% were black, and 3.3% had gout. Over a median follow-up of 10.0 years, incidence rates per 1000 person-years among participants with and without gout were 13.1 and 4.4 for HF hospitalization, 16.0 and 9.3 for CHD, 9.3 and 8.2 for stroke, and 55.0 and 37.1 for all-cause mortality, respectively. After multivariable adjustment for sociodemographic variables and cardiovascular risk factors, hazard ratios (95% CI) comparing participants with versus without gout were 1.97 (1.22, 3.19) for HF hospitalization, 1.21 (0.79, 1.84) for CHD, 0.83 (0.48, 1.43) for stroke, and 1.08 (0.86, 1.35) for all-cause mortality. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for HF hospitalization with reduced and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction among participants with versus without gout was 1.77 (95% CI 0.83, 3.79) and 2.32 (95% CI 1.12, 4.79), respectively. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for heart failure hospitalization associated with gout among the 839,059 Medicare beneficiaries was 1.32 (95% CI 1.25, 1.39).

Conclusion

Among older adults, gout was associated with an increased risk for incident HF but not for incident CHD, incident stroke, or all-cause mortality.