Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Comparison of complete and spatial sampling frames for estimation of the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes mellitus

A complete sampling frame (CSF) is needed for the development of probability sampling structures; utilisation of a spatial sampling frame (SSF) was the objective of the present study. We used two sampling methods, simple random sampling (SRS) and stratified random sampling (STRS), to compare the prevalence estimates delivered by a CSF to that by a SSF when applied to self-reported hypertension and diabetes mellitus in a semi-urban setting and in a rural one. A CSF based on Geodatabase of all households and all individuals was available for our study that focused on adults aged 18-69 years in the two settings. A single digitized shapefile of solely household regions/structures as SSF was developed using Google Earth and employed for the study. The results from the two sampling frames were similar and not significantly different. All 95%CI calculations contained the prevalence rates of the two medical conditions except for one occasion based on STRS and CSF. The SRS based on CSF showed a minimum 95% CI width for diabetes mellitus, whereas SSF showed a minimum 95% CI width for hypertension. The coefficient of variation exceeded 10.0% on six occasions for CSF but only once for SSF, which was found to be as efficient as CSF.

Does the roof type of a house influence the presence of adult Anopheles stephensi, urban malaria vector? - evidence from a few slum settings in Chennai, India

In an urban setting, it is a difficult task to collect adult Anopheles stephensi, unlike the immature stages, due to various reasons. A longitudinal study was undertaken from January 2016 to April 2017, with CDC light traps to collect adult Anopheles stephensi and other mosquito species in houses located in a few slums of Chennai, India. A total of 203 trap collections were made indoors from human dwellings having different roof types, as well as outdoors. Three to four trap collections were made at night (18:00 to 06:00 h) once a week. Overall, Culex quinquefasciatus (64%) was the predominant mosquito species captured, followed by An. stephensi (24%). In 98 of the 203 trap collections (48.3%), at least one female An. stephensi was trapped. In all, 224 female An. stephensi were trapped, of which the majority were collected during monsoon and winter seasons. Compared to outdoors, 10% more An. stephensi, the majority of them unfed, were collected indoors, with relatively more contribution coming from asbestos-roofed houses (71.4%), followed by thatched-roof houses (47.3%). Overall, 2.2% positivity for Plasmodium vivax was detected in An. stephensi through Circumsporozoite-ELISA. Binary logistic regression model indicated that season (winter and monsoon), asbestos-roofed dwelling, lesser number of rooms in a house, and more members in a family were significant predictor variables for the odds of trapping an An. stephensi. The study brought out significant factors associated with the presence of An. stephensi in urban slums setting in Chennai, where malaria is declining. The findings would help in devising targeted, effective vector control interventions for malaria elimination in urban settings.

Determining pulmonary function and the associated risk factors among stone quarry workers in a suburban area of Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

Background:

Stone quarrying activities generate dust and fine particulate matters of silica and heavy metals. The prolonged exposure to suspended particulates leads to fatal respiratory complications. Occupational pulmonary complications are poorly characterized among quarry workers in Tamil Nadu.

Objectives:

This study aims to assess pulmonary function and determine the associated risk factors among quarry workers.

Materials and Methods:

A comparative, cross-sectional study was conducted from April 2014 to January 2015 among workers at seven stone quarries in Chennai and residents within a 5 Km radius. Pulmonary function tests (PFT) and sputum analysis were done.

Results:

Overall, 670 participants were enrolled in the study, with a median age of 37 years. Comparatively, the mean PFT measures were significantly lower in quarry workers with a higher proportion of airflow obstruction and tuberculosis infection.

Conclusion:

The risk of airflow obstruction among quarry workers increased with smoking and longer duration of work years in quarry.

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

POS0400 METABOLIC CHANGES INDUCED BY ANTI-MALONDIALDEHYDE/MALINDIALDEHYDE-ACETALDEHYDE ANTIBODIES PROMOTE OSTEOCLAST DEVELOPMENT

Background:

Malondialdehyde (MDA) is a highly reactive compound generated during lipid-peroxidation in conditions associated with oxidative stress. MDA can irreversibly modify proteins (e.g. lysine, arginine and histidine residues). In addition, acetaldehyde can further react with MDA adducts to form malondialdehyde-acetaldehyde (MAA) modification. Such protein modifications can lead to immunogenic neo-epitopes that are recognized by autoantibodies. In fact, anti-MDA/MAA IgG antibodies are significantly increased in the serum of patients with autoimmune diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (1). Interestingly, anti-MDA/MAA antibodies have been shown to promote osteoclast (OC) differentiation in vitro suggesting a potential role for these autoantibodies in bone damage associated with RA (1).

Objectives:

Little is known about the molecular mechanisms activated by autoantibodies in RA. Here, we elucidate the pathways specifically triggered by anti-MDA/MAA autoantibodies in developing osteoclasts.

Methods:

Recombinant human monoclonal anti-MDA/MAA antibodies, which were previously cloned from single synovial B cells of RA patients, were added to different OC assays. OCs were generated from monocyte-derived macrophages in the presence of the cytokines RANK-L and M-CSF. OC development was monitored by light microscopy following tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase staining and by erosion assays using calcium phosphate-coated plates. Bone morphometrics were studied in anti-MDA/MAA-injected mice using X-ray microscopy. Cellular metabolism was analyzed by mass spectrometry, Seahorse XF Analyzer and a colorimetric L-Lactate assay.

Results:

Anti-MDA/MAA antibodies induced a robust OC differentiation in vitro and bone loss in vivo. The anti-MDA/MAA antibodies acted on developing OCs by increasing glycolysis via an Fcγ receptor I-mediated pathway and the upregulation of the transcription factors HIF-1α, Myc and CHREBP. Such regulation of cellular metabolism was exclusively observed in the presence of the osteoclastogenic anti-MDA/MAA clones, whereas other RA-associated autoantibodies (anti-MDA/MAA or anti-citrullinated protein antibodies) had no effect on metabolism. The anti-MDA/MAA treatment induced a shift in the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle activity in developing OCs, leading to the accumulation of citrate and aconitate.

Conclusion:

We described a novel type of autoantibody-induced pathway in RA, which might contribute to increased OC activation and a consequent bone loss. Anti-MDA/MAA antibodies promoted osteoclast development by increasing glycolysis and by modulating the TCA cycle through a signaling pathway that included Fcγ receptor I and a network of transcription factors acting on glycolysis. A TCA cycle bias towards citrate production suggests that the anti-MDA/MAA antibodies might stimulate OCs via increasing lipid biosynthesis in the cells.

References:

[1]Grönwall C. et al. J. Autoimmunity 84 (2017): 29-45.

Acknowledgements:

This Project has received funding from FOREUM, Foundation for Research in Rheumatology, from the European Research Council (ERC) grant agreement CoG 2017 - 7722209_PREVENT RA, the EU/EFPIA Innovative Medicine Initiative grant agreement 777357_RTCure, the Konung Gustaf V:s och Drottning Victorias Frimurarestiftelse and Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation.

Disclosure of Interests:

Koji Sakuraba: None declared, Akilan Krishnamurthy: None declared, Alexandra Circiumaru: None declared, Vijay Joshua: None declared, Heidi Wähämaa: None declared, Marianne Engström: None declared, Meng Sun: None declared, Xiaowei Zheng: None declared, Cheng Xu: None declared, Khaled Amara: None declared, Vivianne Malmström Grant/research support from: collaboration with Pfizer, unrelated to the abstract, Sergiu-Bogdan Catrina: None declared, Caroline Grönwall: None declared, Bence Réthi: None declared, Anca Catrina Grant/research support from: collaboration with BMS and Pfizer, unrelated to the present abstract

Exploration of population ecological factors related to the spatial heterogeneity of dengue fever cases diagnosed through a national network of laboratories in India, 2017

Background & objectives:

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is known to be influenced by the environmental conditions. During 2017, the Viral Research and Diagnostic Laboratories (VRDLs) tested 78,744 suspected dengue fever (DF) patients, of whom, 21,260 were laboratory confirmed. The objectives of the study were to evaluate the hypothesis that spatial heterogeneity existed for DF patients and to identify significant determinants of DENV transmission in various districts across the Indian States during 2017.

Methods:

Laboratory confirmed DF cases were analysed from 402 districts spread across the Indian States. The determinants for DF transmission included in the model were population density, proportion of population living in rural areas, proportion of forest cover area to the total geographical area, proportion of persons not able to read and write and who were aged greater than seven years; the climatic variables considered were minimum, maximum and average temperature, precipitation and cumulative rainfall. The spatial heterogeneity was assessed using spatial regression analysis.

Results:

DF cases showed strong spatial dependency, with Moran's I=4.44 (P<0.001). The robust measure for spatial lag (6.55; P=0.01) was found to be the best model fit for the data set. Minimum temperature and cumulative rainfall were significant predictors.

Interpretation & conclusions:

A significant increase in the number of dengue cases has occurred when the minimum temperature was 23.0-25.8°C and the cumulative rainfall 118.14-611.64 mm across the Indian districts. Further in-depth investigations incorporating more number of demographic, ecological and socio-economic factors would be needed for robust conclusions.

Space time analysis of dengue fever diagnosed through a network of laboratories in India from 2014-2017

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

The Department of Health Research and the Indian Council of Medical Research, Government of India, have established Virus Research and Diagnostic Laboratory Network (VRDLN) to strengthen the laboratory capacity in the country for providing timely diagnosis of disease outbreaks. Fifty-one VRDLs were functional as on December 2017 and had reported about dengue fever across Indian states. The objectives of the study were to detect space time clusters and purely temporal clusters of dengue using Kulldorff's SaTScan statistics using patient level information; and to identify regions at greater risk of developing the disease using Kriging technique aggregating at district level.

METHODS

A total of 211,432 patients from 51 VRDLs were investigated for IgM antibodies or NS1 antigen against dengue virus during the period from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017 and among them 60,096 (28.4%) were found to be positive. Kulldorff's space time analysis was used to identify significant clusters over space and time. Kriging technique was used to interpolate dengue data for areas not physically sampled using the relationship in the spatial arrangement of the data set. Maps obtained using both the methods were overlaid to identify the regions at greater risk of developing the disease.

RESULTS

Kulldorff Space time Scan Statistics using the Bernoulli model with monthly precision revealed eight statistically significant clusters (P <0.001) for the time period, 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017. Eight significant clusters identified were districts of Nagpur, Jhunjhunu, Gadag, Dakshin Kannada, Kancheepuram, Sivaganga, Ernakulam and Malda. The purely temporal clusters occurred during the last quarter of 2015 and 2016. The Kriging technique identified north eastern part of the country (Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur) and Gujarat.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

Dengue fever has spread in all directions in the country. Hence, it is need of the hour to perform an in-depth investigation.

Coronavirus: Bibliometric analysis of scientific publications from 1968 to 2020

Background: The World Health Organization declared the outbreak of COVID-19as a public health emergency of international concern on January 30, 2020. Therefore, relevant research metrics would be an added value for understanding the virus for researchers. Methods: Research outputs related to the Coronavirus were retrieved from the Web of Science database from January 1968 to March 2020 and were analyzed using MS-office, Word Cloud generator, VOS viewer, and ArcGIS software. The analysis was based on the number of research publications per year, contributing author's clustering pattern, most preferred journals, leading publication, document type, broad research areas, commonly used keywords, the geographical distribution of publications, commonly used languages, and productive institutes. Results: The search retrieved 6424 Coronavirus research publications. The number of articles found in the year 1968 was 1, but it was 275 in 2019. A total of 33 clusters of authors contributed to studies on COVID-19 across the globe. The Journal of Virology had the most productivityon Coronavirus publications (n=810). An article published by Ksiazek TG et al in the New England Journal of Medicine had the maximum citation (n=2175); 90% of the research outputs were articles, broadly classified under Infectious diseases (n=5341); and the most commonly used keyword was 'Coronavirus'. The higher number of publications was from the USA (n=2345) and the commonly used language was English (n=5948), and the most productive institute was the University of Hong Kong (n=506). Conclusion: The results of the study showed that the growth pattern was not uniform, the United States, and the University of Hong Kong have played a major role in the contribution of Coronavirus research. Even though this depicts a higher scientific growth, it is an alarming sign to the community for preparedness. Under the prevailing situation of seeking better prevention, treatment and vaccination for COVID-19, in-depth research in the above portrayed metrics would be an added knowledge for the researchers.

SAT0017 METABOLIC CHANGES INDUCED BY ANTI-MALONDIALDEHYDE/MALINDIALDEHYDE-ACETALDEHYDE ANTIBODIES PROMOTE OSTEOCLAST DEVELOPMENT

Background:

Malondialdehyde (MDA) is a highly reactive compound produced by lipid-peroxidation in situations associated with oxidative stress. MDA can irreversibly modify proteins residues such as lysine, arginine and histidine. In addition, MDA adducts can further react with acetaldehyde to generate malondialdehyde-acetaldehyde (MAA) modifications. Such modifications can give rise to immunogenic neo-epitopes that are recognized by autoantibodies. In fact, anti-MDA/MAA IgG antibodies are significantly increased in the serum of patients with autoimmune diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (1) and systemic lupus erythematosus (2). Recently, we have shown that anti-MDA/MAA IgG antibodies are able to promote osteoclast (OC) differentiationin vitro(1).

Objectives:

To investigate the molecular mechanisms triggered by anti-MDA/MAA autoantibodies during osteoclastogenesis.

Methods:

OCs were generated from monocyte-derived macrophages in the presence of the cytokines RANK-L and M-CSF. The development of OCs was monitored by light microscopy following tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) staining and erosion area on synthetic calcium phosphate-coated plates. Three different recombinant human monoclonal anti-MDA/MAA antibodies, cloned from single synovial B cells of RA patients, control antibodies and Fab fragments of the antibodies were added to OC cultures. Glycolysis was inhibited by 2-deoxyglucose, and Fc-gamma receptor I or II by anti-CD64 or anti-CD16 neutralizing antibodies. IL-8 levels were measured by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Cellular metabolism was monitored using Seahorse XF Analyzer (extracellular acidification rate and oxygen consumption) and a colorimetric L-Lactate assay.

Results:

Lactic acid production correlated with the osteoclastogenetic effect of some but not all anti-MDA/MAA antibodies on OCs (R=0.4758, p=0.0252) suggesting an antibody-mediated regulation of glycolysis. Further, extracellular acidification (ECAR) and oxygen consumption (OCR) rate of the developing OCs were increased by the osteoclastogenic anti-MDA/MAA clones (maximum increase of 54% for the ECAR and 78% for the OCR by clone 146+:01G07, and maximum increase of 28% for the ECAR and 39% for the OCR by clone 1103:01H05), but not by the non-osteoclastogenetic anti-MDA/MAA clones or control antibodies. The glycolysis inhibitor 2-deoxyglucose completely abolished the osteoclastogenetic effect of the anti-MDA/MAA clones at drug concentrations that did not influenced baseline OC development. Fab2 fragments of the osteocalstogenetic anti-MDA/MAA clones had no effect on OC development and metabolism. In accordance with this, Fc-gamma receptor I neutralizing antibodies completely abolished the osteocalstogenetic effect of the anti-MDA/MAA clones. The osteoclastogenetic effect of the anti-MDA/MAA antibodies was independent of IL-8 production. In contrast to anti MDA/MAA antibodies, ACPA-mediated osteoclastogenesis was independent of glycolysis and Fc-gamma receptors but dependent on IL-8.

Conclusion:

Our results describe a novel glycolysis-dependent mechanism by which anti-MDA/MAA antibodies promote osteoclast development that is different from the one previously described for ACPA.

References:

[1] C. Grönwall et al. Journal of Autoimmunity 84 (2017) 29-45.

[2] C. Wang et al. Arthritis and Rheumatism 62 (2010) 2064-2072

Disclosure of Interests:

Koji Sakuraba: None declared, Akilan Krishnamurthy: None declared, Alexandra Circiumaru: None declared, Meng Sun: None declared, Vijay Joshua: None declared, Marianne Engström: None declared, Xiaowei Zheng: None declared, Cheng Xu: None declared, Khaled Amara: None declared, Vivianne Malmström Grant/research support from: VM has had research grants from Janssen Pharmaceutica, Sergiu-Bogdan Catrina: None declared, Caroline Grönwall: None declared, Bence Réthi: None declared, Anca Catrina: None declared

SAT0584 SPECIFIC ACPA REACTIVITIES AND INFLAMMATORY BIOMARKERS ALONG WITH ULTRASOUND TENOSYNOVITIS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHRITIS ONSET IN A POPULATION AT RISK FOR RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS

Background:

Anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) are characteristic markers for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), developing years before disease onset. Early clinical and biological biomarkers could provide useful information on the onset of RA in predisposed individuals.

Objectives:

The aim of the study was to investigate whether ACPA along with inflammatory markers and musculoskeletal ultrasound changes could predict arthritis development in individuals at risk for RA.

Methods:

ACPA-positive individuals with musculoskeletal complaints were referred from primary care to a rheumatology clinic, recruited in the Risk-RA research program and followed-up for up to 3 years, between April 2014 and October 2019. All individuals lacked arthritis both at clinical examination by a trained rheumatologist and ultrasound assessment of hands and feet and any other symptomatic joints (according to EULAR-OMERACT definition). Blood samples were collected at inclusion and were analyzed for 15 ACPA fine specificities (by custom made peptide array), 92 inflammation-associated protein biomarkers (by multiplex immunoassay with Olink extension technology) and HLA-SE (DR low resolution kit). Statistical analysis used univariate and multivariate models with backwards selection and cox regression.

Results:

268 individuals with a median age of 48 (36-58) were recruited, out of which 212 (79%) were females. 75 (28%) developed arthritis within 11 months of follow-up while the median follow-up for those not developing arthritis was 21 months (14-28). Increased ACPA levels, shorter symptom duration and RF positivity were the main differences between individuals developing arthritis and those who did not. In univariate models, the presence of HLA-SE, specific ACPA reactivities, certain inflammatory markers and ultrasound-detected tenosynovitis were associated with arthritis development. In multivariate analysis the presence of anti-cit-fillagrin (HR 2.1 (95% CI 1.2-3.7, p 0.01), IL6 levels (HR 1.4 (95% CI 1.2-1.7, p 0.0001) and tenosynovitis (HR 2.9 (95% CI 1.7-5.0, p 0.0001) remained significant predictors for arthritis onset.

Conclusion:

Certain ACPA reactivities together with inflammatory markers and ultrasound-detected tenosynovitis predict arthritis development in predisposed individuals for developing RA.

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared

FRI0005 DIVERSITY OF ANTI-CITRULLINATED PROTEIN ANTIBODY COMPOSITIONS INFLUENCE SYNOVIAL FIBROBLAST REACTIVITY

Background:

Anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPAs) play an important role in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) pathogenesis. We hypothesized that the effect of these antibodies is mediated by their binding to synovial fibroblasts and inducing an increased mobility of fibroblasts1.

Objectives:

In our study, we analyzed and compared fibroblast modulation by ACPA pools obtained from different patients or by a set of monoclonal ACPAs with different fine specificity that were obtained from different tissue sites.

Methods:

Synovial fibroblasts were isolated from RA patients synovial tissue biopsies. Individual polyclonal ACPA and control IgGs were purified from sera of four ACPA-positive RA patients by affinity purification on protein G and CCP-2 columns. Monoclonal antibodies were derived from memory B cell isolated from blood2, synovial fluid or bronchoalveolar lavage of RA patients. Whole antibodies and F(ab’)2 fragments were tested in fibroblast migration using IncuCyte live-cell analysis. Blocking experiments were performed with soluble citrullinated proteins in SF migration. Cross-reactivity of the antibodies to citrullinated and acetylated epitopes was tested using PAD inhibitors (Cl-amidine and GSK199), histone acetyltransferases (anacardic acid) and deacetylases (trichostatin A). Binding patterns of monoclonal ACPAs, both whole and F(ab’)2 fragments were analyzed in synovial biopsies obtained from both healthy donors and RA patients.

Results:

Three out of four tested individual ACPA were able to promote fibroblast migration. Five out of nine tested monoclonal ACPAs stimulated fibroblast migration. One of these antibodies, clone 1325:01B09 is characterized by cross-reactivity to citrullinated, homocitrullinated and acetylated targets. The effect of 1325:01B09 on fibroblast migration was completely abolished by Cl-amidine or by pre-incubating the antibody with citrullinated fibrinogen or histone but not citrullinated enolase or vimentin. Despite the cross-reactivity to acetylated epitopes, neither anacardic acid nor trichostatin A could modulate the 1325:01B09 effect on fibroblast migration. F(ab’)2 fragments of this antibody stimulated fibroblast migration and labelled podoplanin-positive fibroblasts in inflamed RA synovium similarly to the intact antibody, indicating an Fc-independent effect.

Conclusion:

The effect on fibroblast mobility was likely to be mediated by binding to citrullinated epitopes but not through Fc receptors. Detection of fibroblast modulating ACPAs in majority of RA patients indicated that fibroblasts might be key cellular targets in disease pathogenesis, although individual variability might exist in the composition of ACPA cellular targets.

References:

[1]Sun M, Rethi B, Krishnamurthy A, et al. Anticitrullinated protein antibodies facilitate migration of synovial tissue-derived fibroblasts. Ann Rheum Dis 2019;78(12):1621-31. doi: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2018-214967 [published Online First: 2019/09/05]

[2]Amara K, Lena Israelsson, Ragnhild Stålesen, et al. A Refined Protocol for Identifying Citrulline-specific Monoclonal Antibodies from Single Human B Cells from Rheumatoid Arthritis Patient Material. Bio-protocol 2019;9(16)

Disclosure of Interests:

Meng Sun: None declared, Bence Réthi: None declared, Akilan Krishnamurthy: None declared, Vijay Joshua: None declared, Alexandra Circiumaru: None declared, Marianne Engström: None declared, Caroline Grönwall: None declared, Vivianne Malmström Grant/research support from: VM has had research grants from Janssen Pharmaceutica, Khaled Amara: None declared, Lars Klareskog: None declared, Heidi Wähämaa: None declared, Anca Catrina: None declared

National Burden Estimates of healthy life lost in India, 2017: an analysis using direct mortality data and indirect disability data

BACKGROUND

Many countries, including India, seek locally constructed disease burden estimates comprising mortality and loss of health to aid priority setting for the prevention and treatment of diseases. We created the National Burden Estimates (NBE) to provide transparent and understandable disease burdens at the national and subnational levels, and to identify gaps in knowledge.

METHODS

To calculate the NBE for India, we combined 2017 UN death totals with national and subnational mortality rates for 2010-17 and causes of death from 211 166 verbal autopsy interviews in the Indian Million Death Study for 2010-14. We calculated years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 2017 using published YLD-YLL ratios from WHO Global Health Estimates. We grouped causes of death into 45 groups, including ill-defined deaths, and summed YLLs and YLDs to calculate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for these causes in eight age groups covering rural and urban areas and 21 major states of India.

FINDINGS

In 2017, there were about 9·7 million deaths and 486 million DALYs in India. About three quarters of deaths and DALYs occurred in rural areas. More than a third of national DALYs arose from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional disorders. DALY rates in rural areas were at least twice those of urban areas for perinatal and nutritional conditions, chronic respiratory diseases, diarrhoea, and fever of unknown origin. DALY rates for ischaemic heart disease were greater in urban areas. Injuries caused 11·4% of DALYs nationally. The top 15 conditions that accounted for the most DALYs were mostly those causing mortality (ischaemic heart disease, perinatal conditions, chronic respiratory diseases, diarrhoea, respiratory infections, cancer, stroke, road traffic accidents, tuberculosis, and liver and alcohol-related conditions), with disability mostly due to a few conditions (nutritional deficiencies, neuropsychiatric conditions, vision and other sensory loss, musculoskeletal disorders, and genitourinary diseases). Every condition that was common in one part of India was uncommon elsewhere, suggesting state-specific priorities for disease control.

INTERPRETATION

The NBE method quantifies disease burden using transparent, intuitive, and reproducible methods. It provides a simple, locally operable tool to aid policy makers in priority setting in India and other low-income and middle-income countries. The NBE underlines the need for many more countries to collect nationally representative cause of death data, paired with focused surveys of disability.

FUNDING

Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Subnational mapping of under-5 and neonatal mortality trends in India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2000-17

BACKGROUND

India has made substantial progress in improving child survival over the past few decades, but a comprehensive understanding of child mortality trends at disaggregated geographical levels is not available. We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality.

METHODS

We assessed the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) from 2000 to 2017 in 5 × 5 km grids across India, and for the districts and states of India, using all accessible data from various sources including surveys with subnational geographical information. The 31 states and groups of union territories were categorised into three groups using their Socio-demographic Index (SDI) level, calculated as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study on the basis of per-capita income, mean education, and total fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. Inequality between districts within the states was assessed using the coefficient of variation. We projected U5MR and NMR for the states and districts up to 2025 and 2030 on the basis of the trends from 2000 to 2017 and compared these projections with the NHP 2025 and SDG 2030 targets for U5MR (23 deaths and 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively) and NMR (16 deaths and 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively). We assessed the causes of child death and the contribution of risk factors to child deaths at the state level.

FINDINGS

U5MR in India decreased from 83·1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76·7-90·1) in 2000 to 42·4 (36·5-50·0) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, and NMR from 38·0 (34·2-41·6) to 23·5 (20·1-27·8) per 1000 livebirths. U5MR varied 5·7 times between the states of India and 10·5 times between the 723 districts of India in 2017, whereas NMR varied 4·5 times and 8·0 times, respectively. In the low SDI states, 275 (88%) districts had a U5MR of 40 or more per 1000 livebirths and 291 (93%) districts had an NMR of 20 or more per 1000 livebirths in 2017. The annual rate of change from 2010 to 2017 varied among the districts from a 9·02% (95% UI 6·30-11·63) reduction to no significant change for U5MR and from an 8·05% (95% UI 5·34-10·74) reduction to no significant change for NMR. Inequality between districts within the states increased from 2000 to 2017 in 23 of the 31 states for U5MR and in 24 states for NMR, with the largest increases in Odisha and Assam among the low SDI states. If the trends observed up to 2017 were to continue, India would meet the SDG 2030 U5MR target but not the SDG 2030 NMR target or either of the NHP 2025 targets. To reach the SDG 2030 targets individually, 246 (34%) districts for U5MR and 430 (59%) districts for NMR would need a higher rate of improvement than they had up to 2017. For all major causes of under-5 death in India, the death rate decreased between 2000 and 2017, with the highest decline for infectious diseases, intermediate decline for neonatal disorders, and the smallest decline for congenital birth defects, although the magnitude of decline varied widely between the states. Child and maternal malnutrition was the predominant risk factor, to which 68·2% (65·8-70·7) of under-5 deaths and 83·0% (80·6-85·0) of neonatal deaths in India could be attributed in 2017; 10·8% (9·1-12·4) of under-5 deaths could be attributed to unsafe water and sanitation and 8·8% (7·0-10·3) to air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

India has made gains in child survival, but there are substantial variations between the states in the magnitude and rate of decline in mortality, and even higher variations between the districts of India. Inequality between districts within states has increased for the majority of the states. The district-level trends presented here can provide crucial guidance for targeted efforts needed in India to reduce child mortality to meet the Indian and global child survival targets. District-level mortality trends along with state-level trends in causes of under-5 and neonatal death and the risk factors in this Article provide a comprehensive reference for further planning of child mortality reduction in India.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Epidemiology of Hepatitis A and Hepatitis E Based on Laboratory Surveillance Data-India, 2014-2017

Hepatitis A and hepatitis E viruses (HAV and HEV) are the most common etiologies of viral hepatitis in India. To better understand the epidemiology of these infections, laboratory surveillance data generated during 2014-2017, by a network of 51 virology laboratories, were analyzed. Among 24,000 patients tested for both HAV and HEV, 3,017 (12.6%) tested positive for HAV, 3,865 (16.1%) for HEV, and 320 (1.3%) for both HAV and HEV. Most (74.6%) HAV patients were aged ≤ 19 years, whereas 76.9% of HEV patients were aged ≥ 20 years. These laboratories diagnosed 12 HAV and 31 HEV clusters, highlighting the need for provision of safe drinking water and improvements in sanitation. Further expansion of the laboratory network and continued surveillance will provide data necessary for informed decision-making regarding introduction of hepatitis-A vaccine into the immunization program.

Spatial and temporal trends in new case detection of leprosy in India

BACKGROUND

India achieved the goal of ‘leprosy elimination’ by reducing the burden of leprosy to less than one case per 10,000 inhabitants in 2005. Sustained and committed efforts by national programmes have led to a decline in the burden of leprosy to a great extent.

PURPOSE

To examine the spatial clustering of leprosy case detection and spatiotemporal trend using Bayesian space period model.

MATERIALS

The National Leprosy Eradication Programme (NLEP) data of annual new case detection of leprosy in 34 districts of Maharashtra for eight data years 2007–08 to 2014–15.

METHODS

The presence of spatial dependency was assessed using the case detection rate for each of the eight data years spanning from 2007–2015 using Moran’s I statistic and the variation over space and time was modeled using the Bayesian Space Period model.

RESULTS

The Moran’s I value was found to be statistically significant for each of the time period. The period effect was significantly higher than the average in the year 2007(4%), 2009(5%), 2011(6%), 2013(18%) and significantly lower than the average in 2008(7%), 2010(4%), 2012(11%), 2014(9%). The spatial effects varied between 0·579 and 1·52. There was a higher risk of leprosy (50% or more) found in districts of Garhchiroli, Raigad and Warda. The lowest risk of 0·579 was observed in the Nagpur district.

CONCLUSION

The period effect of new case detection of leprosy using the SP model, measured in terms of relative risk shows a seesaw effect at work in districts of Maharashtra. The alternate jump in the risk of leprosy given by the model could be the actual scenario or due to expended activities in the study area. Further in depth investigation needed to ascertain the facts. Observing the spatial Bayesian effect districts Garhchiroli, Raigad and Warda are at greater risk and need priority care.

The prevalence of disability in elderly in India - Analysis of 2011 census data

BACKGROUND

Advancing age leads to physical and sensory impairment with varying degrees of disability. There is lack of publication focusing on disability of elderly in India with a countrywide state-based analysis of all types of disabilities.

OBJECTIVE

To measure the prevalence of disability and describe the types of disability in the elderly Indian population by gender, advancing age, states and geographical regions.

METHODS

The 2011 Census cross-sectional survey data restricted to elderly in India was analyzed. 'Elderly' is defined as a person who is of age 60 years or above. Disability rates per 100,000 elderly population and age-adjusted disability rates were calculated.

RESULTS

A total of 5,376,205 elderly individuals were disabled in India in 2011; disability rate of 5178 per 100,000 elderly population. Movement and seeing disabilities individually accounted for 25% of total disabilities and disability in hearing was 19%. Disability rates in 17 Indian States and Union Territories were above the national average. Disability rates increased as age advanced with the highest disability rate of 8409 per 100,000 among people aged 80 yrs or above. The disability rates were higher in males than females (5314 vs. 5045 per 100,000) and in rural compared to urban areas (5593 vs. 4181 per 100,000). Currently married and working populations had lower disability rates.

CONCLUSION

One in every twenty Indian citizens aged 60 yrs and above is either physically or mentally disabled. Identification of the underlying causes, employing effective and focused preventive strategies will help to reduce the prevalence of disability in the elderly.

Cholera outbreak linked with lack of safe water supply following a tropical cyclone in Pondicherry, India, 2012

In the aftermath of a severe cyclonic storm on 7 January 2012, a cluster of acute diarrhoea cases was reported from two localities in Pondicherry, Southern India. We investigated the outbreak to identify causes and recommend control measures. We defined a case as occurrence of diarrhoea of more than three loose stools per day with or without vomiting in a resident of affected areas during 6-18 January 2012. We used active (door-to-door survey) and stimulated passive (healthy facility-based) surveillance to identify cases. We described the outbreak by time, place, and person. We compared the case-patients with up to three controls without any apparent signs and symptoms of diarrhoea and matched for age, gender, and neighbourhood. We calculated matched odds ratio (MOR), 95% confidence intervals (CI), and population attributable fractions (PAF). We collected rectal swabs and water samples for laboratory diagnosis and tested water samples for microbiological quality. We identified 921 cases and one death among 8,367 residents (attack rate: 11%, case-fatality: 0.1%). The attack rate was the highest among persons of 50 years and above (14%) and females (12%). The outbreak started on 6 January and peaked on the 9th and lasted till 14 January. Cases were clustered around two major leakages in water supply system. Nine of the 16 stool samples yielded V. cholerae O1 Ogawa. We identified that consumption of water from the public distribution system (MOR=37, 95% CI 4.9-285, PAF: 97%), drinking unboiled water (MOR=35, 95% CI 4.5-269, PAF: 97%), and a common latrine used by two or more households (MOR=2.7, 95% CI 1.3-5.6) were independently associated with cholera. Epidemiological evidence suggested that this outbreak was due to ingestion of water contaminated by drainage following rains during cyclone. We recommended repair of the water supply lines, cleaning-up of the drains, handwashing, and drinking of boiled water.

Programmatic and beneficiary-related factors for low vaccination coverage in Papum Pare district, Arunachal Pradesh, India

Vaccination coverage in Papum Pare district, Arunachal Pradesh was observed to be low. We evaluated the universal immunization programme (UIP) through survey of health facilities in the district and collected data about inputs and processes for childhood vaccination, cold-chain maintenance, supervision and monitoring. Using cluster sampling methodology, we selected 697 children aged 12-23 months from 41 clusters and interviewed their mothers to collect information about vaccination status, socio-demographic factors, knowledge, attitude and practices. Only 50% health facilities in the district were conducting fixed-day immunizations. Of the children surveyed, 55% were fully vaccinated. Mothers who were informed about next due date by health workers, possessed immunization card, attended antenatal clinics, or who delivered in hospital were likely to complete the vaccination schedule of their children. In order to increase the vaccination coverage, all health facilities in the district need to be made functional for conducting immunization. Educating health workers to remind mothers about due date of vaccination will also help increasing the vaccination coverage.

A Bayesian approach to study the space time variation of leprosy in an endemic area of Tamil Nadu, South India

BACKGROUND

In leprosy endemic areas, patients are usually spatially clustered and not randomly distributed. Classical statistical techniques fail to address the problem of spatial clustering in the regression model. Bayesian method is one which allows itself to incorporate spatial dependence in the model. However little is explored in the field of leprosy. The Bayesian approach may improve our understanding about the variation of the disease prevalence of leprosy over space and time.

METHODS

Data from an endemic area of leprosy, covering 148 panchayats from two taluks in South India for four time points between January 1991 and March 2003 was used. Four Bayesian models, namely, space-cohort and space-period models with and without interactions were compared using the Deviance Information Criterion. Cohort effect, period effect over four time points and spatial effect (smoothed) were obtained using WinBUGS. The spatial or panchayat effect thus estimated was compared with the raw standardized morbidity (leprosy prevalence) rate (SMR) using a choropleth map. The possible factors that might have influenced the variations of prevalence of leprosy were explored.

RESULTS

Bayesian models with the interaction term were found to be the best fitted model. Leprosy prevalence was higher than average in the older cohorts. The last two cohorts 1987-1996 and 1992-2001 showed a notable decline in leprosy prevalence. Period effect over 4 time points varied from a high of 3.2% to a low of 1.8%. Spatial effect varied between 0.59 and 2. Twenty-six panchayats showed significantly higher prevalence of leprosy than the average when Bayesian method was used and it was 40 panchayats with the raw SMR.

CONCLUSION

Reduction of prevalence of leprosy was 92% for persons born after 1996, which could be attributed to various intervention and treatment programmes like vaccine trial and MDT. The estimated period effects showed a gradual decline in the risk of leprosy which could be due to better nutrition, hygiene and increased awareness about the disease. Comparison of the maps of the relative risk using the Bayesian smoothing and the raw SMR showed the variation of the geographical distribution of the leprosy prevalence in the study area. Panchayat or spatial effects using Bayesian showed clustersing of leprosy cases towards the northeastern end of the study area which was overcrowded and population belonging to poor economic status.

Magnitude of recall bias in the estimation of immunization coverage and its determinants

OBJECTIVE

To study the magnitude of recall bias in the estimation of immunization coverage and to identify its determinants.

DESIGN

A follow-up study of cohort of children for one year; followed by a cross-sectional recall survey.

SUBJECTS

All live births in two contiguous PHC areas in Villupuram district, Tamil Nadu.

METHODS

The prospective data collected from mothers of 774 children was considered as 'Gold Standard' and the retrospective recall data from them was compared with it. This was carried out for individual immunization schedules, namely, DPT, OPV, BCG and measles and for the combined immunization status. Measures such as sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were computed. Logistic Regression technique was employed for evaluating the determinants of agreement.

RESULTS

Less than 50% of mothers has immunization cards with them and more than 70% of the cards did not have complete information. The sensitivity of the recall method was 41.3% and the specificity was 79.5% when the complete immunization status was considered. For individual immunization schedules, the sensitivity ranged from 95% for BCG to 53% for measles vaccination and the specificity ranged from 30% for BCG to 68% for measles vaccination. Mother's age emerged out as a significant determinant in the agreement of two methods. Maintenance of immunization cards were very poor.

CONCLUSIONS

Method of obtaining immunization status through recall survey is not sensitive. Proper maintenance of immunization cards and ensuring the availability of them with mothers for inspection are recommended for obtaining accurate estimation of vaccine coverages.