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Beyer RCM, Jain T, Sinha S. Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity. J Asian Econ 2023; 85:101589. [PMID: 36817697 PMCID: PMC9928677 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101589] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Revised: 11/20/2022] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
This paper estimates how strongly COVID-19 containment policies have impacted aggregate economic activity. We use a difference-in-differences methodology to estimate how containment zones of different severity across India impacted district-level nighttime light intensity, as well as household income and consumption. From May to July 2020, nighttime light intensity was 9.1 % lower in districts with the most severe restrictions compared with districts with the least severe restrictions, which could imply between 5.8 % and 6.6 % lower GDP. Nighttime light intensity was only 1.6 % lower in districts with intermediate restrictions. The differences were largest in May during the graded lockdown, and tapered in June and July. Lower house-hold income and consumption corresponding to zone-wise restrictions corroborate these results. Stricter containment measures had larger impacts in districts with greater population density, older residents, and more services employment. The large magnitudes of the findings suggest that governments should carefully consider the economic costs of country-wide pandemic containment policies while weighing the trade-offs against public health benefits. Keywords: Containment policies, COVID-19, Nighttime lights, India.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tarun Jain
- Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India
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Abstract
Anecdotal evidence suggests that football matches may have played a role in the spread of COVID-19 all over Europe. Nevertheless, from a scientific point of view, the impact of football matches on the spread of COVID-19 remains unclear. In this paper we study, via a quantitative analysis, the case of Italy, a country badly affected by COVID, and one where attending football matches is very popular. We consider the impact of matches played in January and February 2020 on the dynamic of the pandemic in March and April the same year. Our results, which consider all levels of Italian professional football, and the highest level of amateur football, show that matches played in January and February had an impact on the evolution of the pandemic in March and April. These results suggest that great care must be taken before considering re-opening stadia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vincenzo Alfano
- Department of Economics, Westminster International University in Tashkent, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
- Center for Economic Studies of Munich, CES-ifo, Munich, Germany
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Hoehn-Velasco L, Silverio-Murillo A, Balmori de la Miyar JR, Penglase J. The impact of the COVID-19 recession on Mexican households: evidence from employment and time use for men, women, and children. Rev Econ Househ 2022; 20:763-797. [PMID: 35125981 PMCID: PMC8799985 DOI: 10.1007/s11150-022-09600-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2021] [Accepted: 01/07/2022] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
This study examines changes in labor supply, income, and time allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. Using an event-study design, we show that the COVID-19 recession had severe negative consequences for Mexican households. In the first month of the pandemic, employment declined by 17 percentage points. Men recovered their employment faster than women, where men's employment approaches original levels by 2021Q2. Women, on the other hand, experienced persistent employment losses. Within-household, men also increased their time spent on household chores while neither gender (persistently) increased their time caring for others. Instead, children reduced their time spent on schoolwork by 25%.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren Hoehn-Velasco
- Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA USA
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Ruan J, Cai Q, Jin S. Impact of COVID-19 and Nationwide Lockdowns on Vegetable Prices: Evidence from Wholesale Markets in China. Am J Agric Econ 2021; 103:1574-1594. [PMID: 33821009 PMCID: PMC8014438 DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, we employ a combination of time regression discontinuity design method (T-RD) and the difference-in-difference method (DID) to identify and quantify the causal effects of the strict lockdown policy on vegetable prices using multiple-year daily price data from 151 wholesale markets of Chinese cabbage. We find that the lockdown policy caused a large and immediate surge in price and price dispersion of Chinese cabbage, though they fluctuated smoothly for the same period in normal years. The DID results further show that the price surge peaked in the fourth week of lockdown but gradually came down to the level of a normal year by week 11. However, the price rose again (though to a much smaller extent) in response to the resurgence of COVID-19 in a few provinces in early-mid April but quickly returned to the normal level in week 15 when the lockdown measures were largely removed. We also find that the supply chain disruption is the driving factor for the price hike. Policy implications are drawn.
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Abstract
With an over 80 million population, Iran is the second-largest country in the Middle East. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread over all 31 provinces of Iran, leading to the most cases and death among the Eastern Mediterranean countries. At the same time, Iran is under the United States political and economic sanctions that compromised Iran's health system. Although medicines and basic medical equipment exempted from the economic sanctions, direct and indirect effects of sanctions have restricted Iran's banking system, and consequently has led to a wide range of limitation on trade, manufacturing sector, insurance and ventures. All these circumstances have meant that Iran is restricted to provide the essential basic medical equipment for diagnosis, treatment and prevention of the COVID-19. Although sanctions are not the sole reason for this high rate of mortality and morbidity in a short time period, the chronic and long-term effects of sanctions may be more tangible than their acute impact. In conclusion, providing health services is one of the major problems of Iran's health system during this pandemic that potentially influence on morbidity and mortality of the COVID-19. Iran needs to be free from sanctions for battling against this crisis.Key messagesIran is one of the countries that significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.Iran is under political and economic sanctions that consequently influence on their health system during the COVID-19 crisis.The chronic and long-term effects of sanctions may be more tangible than their acute impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amir Abdoli
- Zoonoses Research Center, Jahrom University of Medical Sciences, Jahrom, Iran
- Department of Parasitology and Mycology, Jahrom University of Medical Sciences, Jahrom, Iran
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Dave D, Dench D, Kenkel D, Mathios A, Wang H. News that Takes Your Breath Away: Risk Perceptions During an Outbreak of Vaping-related Lung Injuries. J Risk Uncertain 2020; 60:281-307. [PMID: 34504389 PMCID: PMC8425473 DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09329-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
We study the impact of new information on people's perceptions of the risks of e-cigarettes. In September 2019 the U.S. experienced an outbreak of e-cigarette, or vaping, associated lung injuries (EVALI). The EVALI outbreak created an information shock, which was followed by additional new information in a later CDC recommendation. We use data on consumer risk perceptions from two sets of surveys conducted before (HINTS survey data) and during the EVALI outbreak (Google Survey data). The empirical model examines changes in risk perceptions during the early crisis period when the CDC was warning consumers that they should avoid all vaping products and during a later period when the message was refined and focused on a narrower set of illegal vaping products that contain THC (the main psychoactive compound in marijuana). Econometric results suggest that the immediate impact of the first information shock was to significantly increase the fraction of respondents who perceived e-cigarettes as more harmful than smoking. As the outbreak subsided and the CDC recommendation changed to emphasize the role of THC e-cigarette products, e-cigarette risk perceptions were only partially revised downwards. Individuals who had higher risk perceptions showed a weaker response to the first information shock but were more likely to later revise their risk perceptions downwards. We conclude the paper by discussing the public policy issues that stem from having risk perceptions of e-cigarette relative to combustible cigarettes remain at these elevated levels where a substantial portion of consumers believe that e-cigarettes are more harmful than cigarettes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dhaval Dave
- Bentley University, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) & Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
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Abstract
This chapter has been conceived as an introductory text to aid in the understanding of the key design strategies for the development of synthetic analogs of endogenous retinoids as ligands for the retinoic acid receptors (RARs) and retinoid X receptors (RXRs). The structure and binding characteristics of the endogenous retinoids are first explained to put the main chemical design challenges in context. Existing biochemical and structural data is then used to describe the guiding principles used to develop agonists and antagonists of the RARs and RXRs. In light of the increasing proliferation of biophysical methods that employ fluorescence measurements or molecular tags, we also examine the application of retinoids as probes and the chemical principles required to develop these tools.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Andrew Whiting
- Department of Chemistry, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, Durham, United Kingdom
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Abstract
The fight against the coronavirus pandemic has led to an insulation of social and economic life and will have considerable economic consequences. Important areas of the industry and service sectors were partially or completely shutdown. A resumption of activity should happen as soon as possible, once the medical pre-conditions have been established and are met. This requires a clear exit strategy and following several steps to return to previous welfare and growth data levels. After securing survival during this crisis via various liquidity lines and bridging loans, the economy's restart requires the relaunch of public infrastructure, especially of schools and kindergartens. To facilitate a coordinated and synchronised restart of complex industrial value chains, we need clear signals on a planned schedule. A tax policy driven departure signal and a demand side focused growth programme could make an important contribution to a new economic dynamic after the crisis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Hüther
- Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln e.V., Konrad-Adenauer-Ufer 21, 50668 Köln, Deutschland
| | - Hubertus Bardt
- Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln e.V., Konrad-Adenauer-Ufer 21, 50668 Köln, Deutschland
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Bofinger P, Dullien S, Felbermayr G, Fuest C, Hüther M, Südekum J, Weder di Mauro B. [Economic Implications of the Corona Crisis and Economic Policy Measures]. Wirtschaftsdienst 2020; 100:259-265. [PMID: 32336801 PMCID: PMC7177746 DOI: 10.1007/s10273-020-2628-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
The corona crisis started in China and had great consequences for public health and the economy. In the meantime, high and rapidly growing numbers of cases of infections with SARS-CoV-2 have also been recorded in Japan, Korea, Italy, Germany, Great Britain, France, Spain and above all in the USA. Forecasts of economic growth have been massively revised downwards and governments around the world are struggling to find the right economic policy response. This article describes basic short-term options for the German government to react to the corona shock and briefl y assesses the package of measures "Schutzschirm für Beschäftigte und Unternehmen" presented on 13 March 2020 by the German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz and the German Economics Minister Peter Altmaier.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Bofinger
- Lehrstuhl für VWL u.a., Universität Würzburg, Sanderring 2, 97070 Würzburg, Deutschland
| | - Sebastian Dullien
- Institut für Makroökonomie u. Konjunkturforschung, Hans-Böckler-Straße 39, 40476 Düsseldorf, Deutschland
| | | | - Clemens Fuest
- ifo Institut, Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 München, Deutschland
| | - Michael Hüther
- Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln e.V., Konrad-Adenauer-Ufer 21, 50668 Köln, Deutschland
| | - Jens Südekum
- Düsseldorfer Institut für Wettbewerbsökonomie, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, Universitätsstraße 1, 40225 Düsseldorf, Deutschland
| | - Beatrice Weder di Mauro
- CEPR Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2nd Floor, 33 Great Sutton Street, EC1V 0DX London, UK
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