Burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study

OBJECTIVE

The geographical differences in incidence rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) and its burden due to modifiable risk factors warrant investigating the CRC burden and its risk factors in different regions. In the current study, we aimed to estimate the burden of CRC and the share of its risk factors in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME), from 1990 to 2019.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

The rates of incidence, prevalence, death, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC were estimated through the framework of the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019 by age, sex, between 1990 and 2019. The CRC-related DALYs attributable to each lifestyle and metabolic risk factor was also estimated through a comparative risk assessment approach.

RESULTS

In NAME region, the trends of incidence, prevalence, death, YLL, YLD, and DALYs of CRC were increasing, with higher rates in males than females over this period. High and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) countries had greater CRC DALYs rate compared with middle- and low-SDI countries in 2019, except for Palestine [434.66 (95% UI: 368.82, 503.88)]. In NAME region, like the global, dietary risk (33.18%), low whole grain intake (19.79%), and low intake of milk (15.77%) were the major contributing risk factors to DALYs due to CRC in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to increasing trend of CRC burden and the considerable role of lifestyle and metabolic factors in its burden in NAME region, implementing fundamental strategies to minimize CRC burden and its risk factors is imperative.

Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease and Its Attributable Risk Factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990 to 2019: Results From the GBD Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region has one of the highest burdens of ischemic heart disease (IHD) worldwide. This study reports the contemporary epidemiology of IHD in NAME.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We estimated the incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and premature mortality of IHD, and its attributable risk factors in NAME from 1990 to 2019 using the results of the GBD (Global Burden of Disease study 2019). In 2019, 0.8 million lives and 18.0 million DALYs were lost due to IHD in NAME. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of IHD significantly decreased by 33.3%, mostly due to the reduction of years of life lost rather than years lived with disability. In 2019, the proportion of premature death attributable to IHD was higher in NAME compared with global measures: 26.8% versus 16.9% for women and 18.4% versus 14.8% for men, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate of IHD attributed to metabolic risks, behavioral risks, and environmental/occupational risks significantly decreased by 28.7%, 37.8%, and 36.4%, respectively. Dietary risk factors, high systolic blood pressure, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were the top 3 risks contributing to the IHD burden in most countries of NAME in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2019, IHD was the leading cause of death and lost DALYs in NAME, where premature death due to IHD was greater than the global average. Despite the great reduction in the age-standardized DALYs of IHD in NAME from 1990 to 2019, this region still had the second-highest burden of IHD in 2019 globally.

The burden of rheumatoid arthritis and low back pain in North Africa and Middle East from 1990 to 2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and low back pain (LBP) are among the most prevalent musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). The need for investigation of regional and local patterns of these two MSDs seems inevitable for better policy-making. The current study presents updated results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and reports the burden of RA and LBP in North Africa and Middle East (NAME) countries from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk factors, including high body mass index, occupational ergonomic factors, and smoking, were extracted based on the GBD 2019 data.

RESULTS

The age-standardized prevalence and mortality of RA were 120.6 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 107.0-135.7) and 0.1 (95% UI 0.1-0.2) per 100 000 population in 2019 with 28.3% (95% UI 25.5%-30.9%) increase and 7.5% (95% UI -37.5% to 32.5%) decrease since 1990, respectively. Turkey had the highest age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of RA in 2019. All RA burden measures were higher for women; however, the incidence was almost the same at ages greater than 65 years. The age-standardized prevalence and DALYs of LBP were 7668.2 (95% UI 6798.0-8636.3) and 862 (95% UI 605.5-1153.3) in 2019, which had decreased by 5.8% (95% UI -7.4% to -4.3%) and 6.0% (95% UI -7.7% to -4.2%) since 1990, respectively. Moreover, although Turkey had the highest incidence and prevalence in 1990, Iran was at the top in 2019. The regional age-standardized DALY rates due to RA and LBP attributed to smoking were 1.7 (95% UI 0.5-3.2) and 139.4 (95% UI 87.3-198.8) in 2019, respectively, which had decreased 2.2% (95% UI -19.2% to 13.7%) and 15.4% (95% UI -19.4% to -10.5%) since 1990, respectively.

CONCLUSION

RA still imposes a significant burden in the NAME region as the burden measures have increased from 1990 to 2019. On the other hand, regarding LBP, a decreasing pattern was observed. Differences among the countries and between ages and genders can have implications, and the results of this study may be helpful for policy-makers in the NAME countries.

Low bone mineral density, a neglected condition in North Africa and Middle East: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 1990-2019

Due to the high prevalence of low bone mineral density in North Africa and Middle East region, estimating its attributable burden would help to a better understanding of this neglected condition for policymakers and health researchers. This study presented the number of attributable deaths has doubled from 1990 to 2019.

PURPOSE

This study provides the latest estimates of the burden of low bone mineral density (BMD) from 1990 to 2019 in North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region.

METHODS

The data were extracted from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study to estimate epidemiological indices such as deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and summary exposure value (SEV). SEV is a measure of the exposure of the population to a risk factor that considers the amount of exposure by the level of risk.

RESULTS

Our findings showed that in 1990-2019, the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to low BMD had almost doubled in the region and caused 20,371 (95% uncertainty intervals: 14,848-24,374) deaths and 805,959 (630,238-959,581) DALYs in 2019. However, DALYs and death rates showed a decreasing trend after age standardization. Saudi Arabia had the highest, and Lebanon had the lowest age-standardized DALYs rates in 2019, with rates of 434.2 (329.6-534.3) and 90.3 (70.6-112.1) per 100,000, respectively. The highest burden attributable to low BMD was in the 90-94 and over 95 age groups. Also, there was a decreasing trend in age-standardized SEV to low BMD for both sexes.

CONCLUSION

Despite the decreasing trend of age-standardized burden indices, considerable amounts of deaths and DALYs were attributable to low BMD, especially in the elderly population, in the region in 2019. As the positive effects of proper interventions will be detectable in the long term, robust strategies and comprehensive stable policies are the ultimate solutions to achieving desired goals.

The burden of childhood and adolescent cancers in North Africa and the Middle East (NAME) region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

INTRODUCTION

Despite the significant burden of childhood and adolescent cancers, no specific studies recently discussed the burden of cancer in this group in the North Africa and the Middle East (NAME) region. Therefore, we aimed to study the burden of cancers in this group in this region.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrieved the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data for children and adolescent cancers (0-19 years old) in the NAME region from 1990 to 2019. 21 types of neoplasms were grouped as "neoplasms", comprising 19 specific cancer groups as well as "other malignant neoplasms" and "other neoplasms". Three significant parameters of incidence, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were studied. The data are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), and reported rates per 100,000.

RESULTS

In 2019, almost 6 million (95% UI: 4.166 M-8.405 M) new cases and 11,560(9770-13,578) deaths due to neoplasms occurred in the NAME region. Incidence was higher in females (3.4 M), while deaths (6226 of overall 11,560) and DALYs (501,118 of overall 933,885) were estimated as higher in males. Incidence rates did not significantly change since 1990, while deaths and DALYs rates declined significantly. After excluding "other malignant neoplasms" and "other neoplasms", leukemia was responsible for the highest number of incidence and deaths (incidence: 10,629(8237-13,081), deaths: 4053(3135-5013), followed by brain and central nervous system cancers (incidence: 5897(4192-7134), deaths: 2446(1761-2960)), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (incidence: 2741 (2237-3392), deaths: 790(645-962)). Incidence rates of neoplasms were similar for most countries, but countries varied more in terms of death rates. Afghanistan 8.9(6.5-11.9), Sudan 6.4(4.5-8.6), and the Syrian Arab Republic 5.6(4.3-8.3) had the highest overall death rates.

CONCLUSION

The NAME region is observing relatively constant incidence rates and a decreasing pattern in the deaths and DALYs. Despite this success, several countries are lagging behind in development. Different issues such as economic problems, armed conflicts and political instabilities, lack of equipment or experienced staff or poor distribution, stigmatization and disbelief in the healthcare systems account for unfavorable numbers in some countries. Such problems require urgent solutions as new sophisticated and personalized cares raise the alarm for even more inequalities between high and low-income countries.

Levels and Trends of Maternal Mortality and Morbidity by Cause in North Africa and Middle East, 1990 to 2019: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Since 1990, the maternal mortality significantly decreased at global scale as well as the North Africa and Middle East. However, estimates for mortality and morbidity by cause and age at national scale in this region are not available.

METHODS

This study is part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2019. Here we report maternal mortality and morbidity by age and cause across 21 countries in the region from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, maternal mortality ratio (MMR) dropped from 148.8 (129.6-171.2) to 94.3 (73.4-121.1) per 100000 live births in North Africa and Middle East. In 1990, MMR ranged from 6.0 (5.3-6.8) in Kuwait to 502.9 (375.2-655.3) per 100000 live births in Afghanistan. Respective figures for 2019 were 5.1 (4.0-6.4) in Kuwait to 269.9 (195.8-368.6) in Afghanistan. Percentages of deaths under 25 years was 26.0% in 1990 and 23.8% in 2019. Maternal hemorrhage, indirect maternal deaths, and other maternal disorders rank 1st to 3rd in the entire region. Ultimately, there was an evident decrease in MMR along with increase in socio-demographic index from 1990 to 2019 in all countries in the region and an evident convergence across nations.

CONCLUSION

MMR has significantly declined in the region since 1990 and only five countries (Afghanistan, Sudan, Yemen, Morocco, and Algeria) out of 21 nations didn't achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of 70 deaths per 100000 live births in 2019. Despite the convergence in trends, there are still disparities across countries.

The burden of chronic respiratory disease and attributable risk factors in North Africa and Middle East: findings from global burden of disease study (GBD) 2019

BACKGROUND

North Africa and Middle East (NAME) has an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs); however, a systematic understanding of the distribution and trends is not available. We aimed to report the trends of CRDs and attributable risk factors in this region between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019, cause specific mortality served as the basis for estimating incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The burden attributable to risk factors was calculated by a comparative risk assessment and contribution of population ageing and growth was determined by decomposition analysis.

RESULTS

The number of deaths due to CRD in 2019 were 128,513 (110,781 to 114,351). In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of CRDs was 1052.8 (924.3 to 1209.4) per 100,000 population and had a 10.3% increase and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) was 36.1 (30.9 to 40.3) with a 32.9% decrease compared to 1990. In 2019, United Arab Emirates had the highest ASIR (1412.7 [1237.3 to 1622.2]) and Afghanistan had the highest ASDR (67.8 [52.0 to 81.3]). CRDs were responsible for 2.91% of total DALYs in 2019 (1.69% due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] and 1.02% due to asthma). With regard to the components of DALYs, the age-standardized rate of years of life lost (YLL) had a - 39.0% (- 47.1 to - 30.3) decrease; while the age-standardized rate of years lived with disability (YLD) had a 13.4% (9.5 to 17.7) increase. Of total ASDRs of CRDs, 31.6% were attributable to smoking and 14.4% to ambient particulate matter pollution.

CONCLUSION

CRDs remain a leading cause of death and disability in NAME, with growth in absolute numbers. COPD and asthma were the most common CRDs and smoking was the leading risk factor especially in men. More attention is needed in order to reduce CRDs' burden through appropriate interventions and policies.

Regional and national burden of leukemia and its attributable burden to risk factors in 21 countries and territories of North Africa and Middle East, 1990-2019: results from the GBD study 2019

PURPOSE

Regional and national data on leukemia's burden provide a better comprehension of leukemia's trends and are vital for policy-makers for better allocation of the resources. This study reports the burden of leukemia, and the attributed burden to its risk factors in 21 countries and territories of the North Africa and Middle East.

METHODS

Data from cancer registration, scientific literature, survey, and reports were the input to estimate the burden of leukemia. In addition, the burden of attributable risk factors with evidence of causation with leukemia was calculated using the comparative risk assessment framework. All measures are reported as counts and rates divided by sex and specific age groups.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 39,297 (95% uncertainty interval: 32,617-45,056) incident cases of leukemia with an age-standardized rate (ASR) of 7.8 (6.5-8.8) per 100,000 in the region. There were also 25,143 (21,109-28,826) deaths and 1,011,555 (822,537-1,173,621) DALYs attributed to Leukemia with an ASR of 5.4 (4.6-6.1) per 100,000 and 183.4 (150.7-211.2) per 100,000, respectively. Years of life lost (YLLs) (179.4 [147.2-206.7]) were accountable for the major part of DALYs. All count measures increased, while all the ASRs decreased during 1990-2019. The Syrian Arab Republic, Qatar, and Afghanistan had the highest ASR incidence, mortality, and DALYs rate in 2019. Incidence, DALYs, and prevalence rates were higher in males of all age groups except under five, and the highest rates were observed in +75 age group. Four major risk factors for leukemia were smoking, high body mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and formaldehyde.

CONCLUSION

Despite the reduction in age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality, the burden of leukemia has increased steadily, due to population growth and aging. Notable variations exist between age-standardized rates in region's countries.

Risk of Introduction of Infectious Animal Diseases for Europe Based on the Health Situation of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula

The current growth of the human population, the intensification of animal production, climate change or globalization favors an increase in the transmission of infectious diseases. Risk analysis is the tool that allows the identification of the factors involved in the introduction and the spread of infectious diseases. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the risk of entry of animal infectious zoonotic and non-zoonotic diseases from North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula to countries of the European Union. A probabilistic formulation has been developed to obtain the probabilities of introduction of diseases associated with each possible route of entry in the European Union. The results show that, among the infectious diseases analyzed in this study, avian influenza and Newcastle disease are the ones with a higher risk of entry in the European Union and the wild bird's migration is the route with greater impact. It is confirmed a moderate probability of entry of some vector-borne diseases, bluetongue and epizootic haemorrhagic disease, through wind flow from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Due to the absence of live dromedary movement to Europe, the more likely way of entry of the Middle East respiratory syndrome is through the infected people movement from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman. This study includes different methodologies. A model of vectors dispersion in wind currents has been established to assess the risk of introduction of vector borne diseases. It is applicable both in animal health and public health. A periodical update would be useful to obtain a periodically updated risk analysis and to allow early detection of potential hazard with an increased risk over the previous years.

Challenges of diagnosis and management of axial spondyloarthritis in North Africa and the Middle East: An expert consensus

Axial spondyloarthritis (SpA) is a spectrum of inflammatory disease with stages characterized by both nonradiographic and radiographic sacroiliitis. Nonradiographic axial SpA is associated with health-related quality-of-life impairment and may progress to ankylosing spondylitis. Axial SpA has a low prevalence in some countries in North Africa and the Middle East, and pooling of data and resources is needed to increase understanding of the regional picture. Early diagnosis and effective treatment are required to reduce disease burden and prevent progression. Anti-TNF therapy is recommended for patients with persistently high disease activity despite conventional treatment, and has been shown to be effective in patients without radiographic damage. Diagnostic delays can be an obstacle to early treatment and appropriate referral strategies are needed. In some countries, restricted access to magnetic resonance imaging and anti-TNF agents presents a challenge. In this article, a group of experts from North Africa and the Middle East evaluated the diagnosis and management of axial SpA with particular reference to this region.