Identification of the prognostic immune subtype in copy-number high endometrial cancer

OBJECTIVE

The TCGA molecular subtype of endometrial cancer (EC) is widely applied, among which the copy-number high (CNH) subtype has the poorest prognosis. However, the heterogeneity of this subtype remains elusive. In this study, we aimed to identify heterogeneous immune subtypes in CNH EC and explore their prognostic significance.

METHODS

We collected 60 CNH EC cases in the TCGA database and performed unsupervised cluster analysis based on the enrichment scores of immune-related gene signatures to identify immune subtypes. We described their immune characteristics and prognoses and conducted differential gene analysis and lasso regression to identify a prognostic biomarker, GZMM. For experimental validation, we performed immunohistochemical staining of GZMM in 39 p53-positive EC surgical samples.

RESULTS

We defined two immune subtypes, immune-hot (IH) and immune-cold (IC), which differed in immune cell infiltration, cytokine and chemokine expression and prognosis. The IH subtype has significantly stronger immune activation than the IC subtype, showing a significant infiltration of immune effector cells and high expression of relevant chemokines, with better prognosis. Moreover, the immunohistochemical staining of GZMM in a cohort of 39 p53-positive EC surgical samples confirmed GZMM as a unique prognostic biomarker, with high expression in both tumor cells and lymphocytes predicting a better prognosis.

CONCLUSION

Our study revealed heterogeneous immune subtypes in CNH EC and identified GZMM as a prognostic biomarker. The stratified classification strategy combining molecular and immune subtypes provides valuable insights for future clinical practice.

[Associating prognostic factors with clinical results in locally advanced breast cancer]

Background

Breast cancer is the most frequent malignant tumor in women.

Objective

To identify clinico-pathological and molecular markers as predictors of survival in patients with locally advanced breast cancer (LABC).

Methods

Retrospective and observational study. The clinical factors of clinico-pathological and molecular predictors in relation with overall survival (OS) were assessed by the survival function, baseline hazard with smoothing and Cox regression.

Results

126 patients were assessed. OS at five years was significantly superior in patients with clinical stage IIIA (87%; p < 0.001), grade 2 tumor (81%; p < 0.001), pathological node stage (ypN0: 90%; p < .001), low-risk Nottingham prognostic index (86%; p < 0.001) and luminal A subtype (88%; p = 0.022). Baseline hazard with smoothing exhibited an increase in the mortality rate at 50 months for the luminal B/ HER2+ subtype compared with other subtypes. The multivariate analysis ascertained that the stage ypN2-3 (hazard ratio [HR] = 7.3; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 2.2 to 23.9) and the HER2+ nonluminal (HR = 7.8; 95% CI: 2 to 29.6) and triple negative (HR = 5.4; 95% CI: 1.7 to 17.2) subtypes were associated with a poor OS.

Conclusions

The comprehensive evaluation of the molecular marker and clinico-pathological factors provides more accurate predictive and prognostic information. The nodal stage and molecular subtype are suitable clinical parameters on survival for LABC patients.

Clinical Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Fractionated Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases ≥20 mm as a Potential Alternative to Surgery

BACKGROUND

This study investigated the outcomes and prognostic factors of fractionated stereotactic radiosurgery (FSRS) for the treatment of brain metastases ≥20 mm, and determined whether FSRS could replace surgery-the primary treatment for large brain metastases.

METHODS

Patients with brain metastases ≥20 mm treated with FSRS were retrospectively examined. Patients who underwent FSRS postoperatively were excluded. Local failure, intracranial failure, and adverse events were evaluated.

RESULTS

Overall, 116 lesions in 105 patients were evaluated. The performance status was 0-1, 2-4, and unknown for 86, 28, and two patients, respectively. The median maximum tumor diameter was 25 mm, and the median prescribed dose was 35 Gy in 3 fractions. The median follow-up period after FSRS was 8 months. The 1-year local failure, intracranial failure, and overall survival rates were 12.5%, 56.6%, and 49.0%, respectively. A maximum dose of ≥135 Gy (biological equivalent dose [α/β = 10 Gy]) and good performance status were independent favorable prognostic factors for local control. Twenty-one (20%) patients were treated with whole-brain radiotherapy after FSRS because of multiple intracranial recurrences, while four (3.4%) patients underwent surgery because of local recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

FSRS for brain metastases ≥20 mm achieved good local control. Only 3.4% of patients required surgery after FSRS, suggesting that FSRS is a potential alternative to surgery. For FSRS, a higher maximum tumor dose was useful for local control.

Histologic Features of Colon Biopsies (Geboes Score) Associated With Progression of Ulcerative Colitis for the First 36 Months After Biopsy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In addition to findings from endoscopy, histologic features of colon biopsies have been associated with outcomes of patients with ulcerative colitis (UC). We investigated associations between Geboes scores (a system to quantify structural changes and inflammatory activity in colon biopsies) and UC progression, and the time period over which this association is valid.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 399 asymptomatic patients with UC enrolled in the ACERTIVE study, followed at 13 inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) centers in Portugal through 31 December 2019. Blood and stool samples were collected and analyzed, and all patients underwent sigmoidoscopy within 24 h of sample collection. We assessed baseline endoscopic status (Mayo endoscopic subscore), histologic features of 2 sigmoid and 2 rectal biopsies (Geboes score), and concentration of fecal calprotectin (FC). The primary outcome was UC progression (surgical, pharmacologic, and clinical events). We generated survival curves for 36 months or less and more than 36 months after biopsy according to Geboes score using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared findings with those from a log rank test. Cox regression was adjusted for Mayo endoscopic subscore, Geboes score, and level of FC; results were expressed as adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Patients with Geboes scores >2B.0, Geboes scores >3.0, or Geboes scores >4.0 had a higher frequency of, and a shorter time to UC progression, than patients with Geboes scores ≤2B.0, Geboes scores ≤3.0, or Geboes score ≤4.0 (P < .001). Disease progression occurred earlier in patients with Geboes scores >2B.0, Geboes scores >3.0, or Geboes scores >4.0 compared with patients with Geboes scores ≤2B.0 (HR, 2.021; 95% CI, 1.158-3.526), Geboes scores ≤3.0 (HR, 2.007; 95% CI, 1.139-3.534), or Geboes scores ≤4.0 (HR, 2.349; 95% CI, 1.269-4.349), respectively, in the first 36 months after biopsy. Similar results were found for patients with concentrations of FC below 150 μg/g.

CONCLUSIONS

We found histologic features of colon biopsies (Geboes score) to be an independent risk factor for progression of UC in the first 36 months after biopsy.

Spontaneous Clearance After Relapse Following Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment for Chronic HCV Infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) cure most cases of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, a small percentage of patients relapse with reappearance of viremia after a full course of therapy. Although most who relapse require retreatment, some patients spontaneously clear HCV without additional therapy. We studied patients who relapsed with detectable HCV RNA after a full course of DAA therapy and then spontaneously cleared the HCV infection without retreatment.

METHODS

We performed a case-control study of patients who spontaneously cleared chronic HCV infection following a documented relapse after DAA therapy at the Toronto Centre for Liver Disease, from January 2014 through December 2017. We collected clinical information at baseline, 12 weeks after treatment, and 6 months after relapse and compared data among spontaneous clearers, patients with persistent relapse, and patients who achieved a sustained virologic response to therapy 12 weeks after treatment (SVR12). The strength and breadth of interferon gamma cytokine secretion by HCV-specific T cells from peripheral blood were quantified using the ELISPOT assay.

RESULTS

Of the 1032 individuals with chronic HCV infection who were treated with DAAs, 93 patients had a documented relapse. Of these patients, 12 patients (13%) spontaneously cleared HCV within 6 months after the documented relapse without additional therapy. The spontaneous clearers had low levels of HCV RNA (<4 log IU/mL in 11 of 12) and normal levels of alanine aminotransferase at the time of relapse, much like patients with an SVR12. There was no significant difference between the spontaneous clearance group and the SVR12 group in magnitude and breadth of HCV-specific T cell responses.

CONCLUSIONS

In a case-control study of patients who spontaneously cleared chronic HCV infection following a relapse after DAA therapy, we found that it is important to confirm viremia prior to retreatment after the relapse-particularly for individuals with low levels of HCV RNA and normal or near-normal levels of alanine aminotransferase after treatment.

Risk Model Establishment of Endoscopic Sinus Surgery for Patients with Chronic Rhinosinusitis: a Multicenter Study in Korea

BACKGROUND

Endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS) is the mainstay treatment for refractory chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS). Since various factors may contribute to the surgical outcome, it is challenging for physicians to predict surgical outcomes. The aim of study was to analyze the prognostic factors of postoperative outcomes and to establish the prediction model with the risk factors that impact the postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

Medical records of CRS patients who underwent ESS at 9 institutions in 2005, 2010, and 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. We classified the patients into 2 groups based on postoperative objective endoscopic outcomes. Demographics, nose-specific symptoms, olfactory function, eosinophil counts in blood (EoB) and nasal tissue (EoT), and Lund-Mackay CT score (LMS) were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed and established a prediction equation for postoperative endoscopic objective outcomes.

RESULTS

In total (n = 1,249), 27.0% were not satisfied under postoperative endoscopic examination. Of 10 variables, LMS (> 5), sinus dominancy (maxillary sinus and ethmoid sinus), EoB (> 210), and EoT (> 100) were statistically significant in univariate analysis (P < 0.05, all). In multivariate analysis, EoT (> 100) and LMS (> 5) were significantly associated with poor postoperative outcome. Furthermore, 5 significant variables were employed to establish the risk model of postoperative outcomes and P (the value of prediction probability) = 1 / (1 + exp [-0.392 + 1.088 × EoT (> 100) + 0.123 × mean LMS (> 5) - 0.366 × sinus dominancy (maxillary) + 0.064 × sinus dominancy (similar) + 0.200 × EoB (4%) + 0.344 × EoB (> 210)] was developed.

CONCLUSION

Tissue eosinophil count and radiographic severity predispose to a poorer outcome of ESS and the risk model established may be helpful to predict postoperative outcomes of ESS.

Normalization of Fecal Calprotectin Within 12 Months of Diagnosis Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Disease Progression in Patients With Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The level of fecal calprotectin (FC) correlates with endoscopic evidence of inflammation in Crohn's disease (CD). A treat-to-target algorithm for patients with CD, that incorporates FC, outperforms a treatment strategy based on symptoms alone in the induction of mucosal healing at 12 months. We investigated whether normalization of FC within 12 months of diagnosis of CD is associated with a reduction in disease progression.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study at a tertiary IBD centre in the United Kingdom. We identified all incident cases of CD diagnosed from 2005 through 2017. Patients with a FC measurement ≥250 μg/g at diagnosis who also had at least 1 follow-up FC measurement within the first 12 months of diagnosis and >12 months of follow up were included. The last FC measurement within 12 months of diagnosis was used to determine normalization (cut-off <250 μg/g). The primary endpoint was time to first disease progression (composite of progression in Montreal disease behavior B1 to B2/3, B2 to B3, or new perianal disease; CD-related surgery; or CD-related hospitalization). Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine independent factors associated with time to first disease progression.

RESULTS

A total of 375 patients out of 1389 incident cases were included, with a median follow up of 5.3 years (interquartile range, 3.1-7.4 years). Normalization of FC within 12 months of diagnosis was confirmed in 43.5% of patients. Patients with normalized levels of FC had a significantly lower risk of composite disease progression (hazard ratio [HR], 0.36; 95% CI, 0.24-0.53; P < .001). They also had a lower risk of reaching any of the separate progression endpoints (progression in Montreal behavior or new perianal disease HR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.11-0.45; P < .001; hospitalization HR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.21-0.53; P <.001; surgery HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.19-0.78; P = .008) CONCLUSIONS: Normalization of FC within 12 months of diagnosis is associated with a reduced risk of progression of CD.

A Scoring System to Determine Patients' Risk of Colectomy Within 1 Year After Hospital Admission for Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There is consensus on the criteria used to define acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) and on patient management, but it has been a challenge to identify patients at risk for colectomy based on data collected at hospital admission. We aimed to develop a system to determine patients' risk of colectomy within 1 y of hospital admission for ASUC based on clinical, biomarker, and endoscopy data.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with ASUC treated with corticosteroids, ciclosporin, or tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists and admitted to 2 hospitals in France from 2002 through 2017. Patients were followed until colectomy or loss of follow up. A total of 270 patients with ASUC were included in the final analysis, with a median follow-up time of 30 months (derivation cohort). Independent risk factors identified by Cox multivariate analysis were used to develop a system to identify patients at risk for colectomy 1 y after ASUC. We developed a scoring system based on these 4 factors (1 point for each item) to identify high-risk (score 3 or 4) vs low-risk (score 0) patients. We validated this system using data from an independent cohort of 185 patients with ASUC treated from 2006 through 2017 at 2 centers in France.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, the cumulative risk of colectomy was 12.3% (95% CI, 8.6-16.8). Based on multivariate analysis, previous treatment with TNF antagonists or thiopurines (hazard ratio [HR], 3.86; 95% CI, 1.82-8.18), Clostridioides difficile infection (HR, 3.73; 95% CI, 1.11-12.55), serum level of C-reactive protein above 30 mg/L (HR, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.11-8.43), and serum level of albumin below 30 g/L (HR, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.20-5.92) were associated with increased risk of colectomy. In the derivation cohort, the cumulative risks of colectomy within 1 y in patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 were 0.0%, 9.4% (95% CI, 4.3%-16.7%), 10.6% (95% CI, 5.6%-17.4%), 51.2% (95% CI, 26.6%-71.3%), and 100%. Negative predictive values ranged from 87% (95% CI, 82%-91%) to 92% (95% CI, 88%-95.0%). Findings from the validation cohort were consistent with findings from the derivation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a scoring system to identify patients at low-risk vs high-risk for colectomy within 1 y of hospitalization for ASUC, based on previous treatment with TNF antagonists or thiopurines, C difficile infection, and serum levels of CRP and albumin. The system was validated in an external cohort.

Risk of Covert Submucosal Cancer in Patients With Granular Mixed Laterally Spreading Tumors

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Granular mixed laterally spreading tumors (GM-LSTs) have an intermediate level of risk for submucosal invasive cancer (SMICs) without clear signs of invasion (covert); the optimal resection method is uncertain. We aimed to determine the risk of covert SMIC in GM-LSTs based on clinical and endoscopic factors.

METHODS

We collected data from 693 patients (50.6% male; median age, 69 years) with colorectal GM-LSTs, without signs of invasion, who underwent endoscopic resection (74.2%) or endoscopic submucosal dissection (25.2%) at 7 centers in Italy from 2016 through 2019. We performed multivariate and univariate analyses to identify demographic and endoscopic factors associated with risk of SMIC. We developed a multivariate model to calculate the number needed to treat (NNT) to detect 1 SMIC.

RESULTS

Based on pathology analysis, 66 patients (9.5%) had covert SMIC. In multivariate analyses, increased risk of covert SMIC were independently associated with increasing lesion size (odds ratio per mm increase, 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; P = .003) and rectal location (odds ratio, 3.08; 95% CI, 1.62-5.83; P = .004). A logistic regression model based on lesion size (with a cutoff of 40 mm) and rectal location identified patients with covert SMIC with 47.0% sensitivity, 82.6% specificity, and an area under the curve of 0.69. The NNT to identify 1 patient with a nonrectal SMIC smaller than 4 cm was 20; the NNT to identify 1 patient with a rectal SMIC of 4 cm or more was 5.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of data from 693 patients, we found the risk of covert SMIC in patients with GM-LSTs to be approximately 10%. GM-LSTs of 4 cm or more and a rectal location are high risk and should be treated by en-bloc resection. ClinicalTrials.gov, Number: NCT03836131.

Ileal or Colonic Histologic Activity Is Not Associated With Clinical Relapse in Patients With Crohn's Disease in Endoscopic Remission

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Goals of treatment for Crohn's disease (CD) are clinical and endoscopic remission. It is not clear whether histologic markers of healing associate with endoscopic remission in patients with CD.

METHODS

We identified patients with CD from a single institutional registry, and collected data from 129 patients (46.5% female; mean age 25 y; mean CD duration 14.5 y) who underwent colonoscopy evaluation and had simple endoscopic scores for CD below 3 (the definition of endoscopic remission). Histologic signs of CD activity were graded in 192 biopsies (90 ileum and 102 colon), and disease was classified as active (presence of crypt destruction, neutrophils, erosions or ulcerations), quiescent (presence of architectural distortion and chronic inflammatory infiltrate), or normal histology (none of these). The primary outcome was clinical relapse within 2 y (dose escalation, change in therapy, need for systemic steroids, or CD-related hospitalization or surgery). We performed multivariable regression adjusting for relevant confounders to examine the independent predictive value of histologic activity.

RESULTS

Within 2 y of endoscopic evaluation, 42 patients (32.6%) had a clinical relapse. There were no significant differences in proportions of patients with active ileal CD (23.8%), quiescent CD (28.6%), or normal histology (37%) between those who relapsed and those remaining in remission (P = .43). There were no significant differences in proportions of relapses among patients with active colonic disease (38.1%), quiescent disease (35.0%), or normal histology (27.9%, P = .73). A linear regression analysis found no association between histologic features of active disease in ileal histology biopsies and symptom scores (Harvey Bradshaw index and simple inflammatory bowel disease questionnaire scores).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of biopsies from patients with CD who had achieved clinical and endoscopic remission, histologic remission was not associated with clinical relapse within 2 years.

Inter- and Intra-individual Variation, and Limited Prognostic Utility, of Serum Alkaline Phosphatase in a Trial of Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score are used as endpoints in trials of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We aimed to quantify inter- and intra-individual variation in levels of ALP and the ELF score over time, and evaluated their association with fibrosis progression.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 234 patients with large-duct PSC enrolled in a 2-year, phase 2b placebo-controlled trial of simtuzumab. Participants were assessed by laboratory tests every 4 weeks, and liver biopsies collected at time of screening, week 48, and week 96.

RESULTS

Serum levels of ALP and ELF scores did not differ significantly between simtuzumab and placebo groups, so the data were pooled. Median per-patient variations in ALP between clinic visits were approximately 12% over 12 weeks, 20% over 48 weeks, and 20% over 96 weeks. Reductions, unrelated to study intervention, of more than 40% in ALP were observed in 10.9% of patients with baseline activity greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN) and 12.5% of patients with more than 3-fold the ULN at 1 year. At 2 years, reductions of more than 40% in ALP were observed in 15.8% of patients with baseline activity greater than 2-fold the ULN and 17.9% of patients with more than 3-fold the ULN. Among the 209 patients with Ishak fibrosis stage 0-4 at baseline, serum ALP activity did not associate with development of cirrhosis or with a 2-point increase in fibrosis stage at 2 years. In contrast, the median per-patient variation in ELF scores between clinic visits was approximately 3% over 12 weeks, 4% over 48 weeks, and 4% over 96 weeks. Elevated ELF scores at baseline and at weeks 12, 24 and 48, each associated with development of cirrhosis at 2 years (odds ratio >2.75; P < .01 for all timepoints). ELF scores at baseline and weeks 12, 24 and 48, also associated with a 2-point increase in fibrosis stage at 2 years (odds ratios all greater than 2; P < .01 for all timepoints).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of data from patients with large-duct PSC enrolled in a prospective trial, we found large interindividual and intraindividual variations in serum ALP activity. Serum ALP activity did not associate with disease progression over a 2-year period. Variations in ELF score were smaller, and scores determined at multiple timepoints associated with fibrosis progression and development of cirrhosis.

Barrett's Epithelial Thickness, Assessed by Volumetric Laser Endomicroscopy, Is Associated With Response to Radiofrequency Ablation

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is the most common treatment for flat Barrett's esophagus (BE), but reasons for varying outcomes are poorly understood. A recently developed contrast-enhancement algorithm allows reliable measurement of Barrett's epithelial thickness (BET) from volumetric laser endomicroscopy (VLE) images and correlation with response to RFA. Using this algorithm, we investigated whether patients with thicker Barrett's mucosa are less likely to respond to RFA. In the future, this algorithm may guide choice of RFA dosing or endoscopic resection.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis on all patients with BE who received a baseline VLE scan between May 2015 and October 2016, followed by RFA and 1 follow-up exam, from 14 institutions participating in the United States VLE registry. We measured BET on equidistant locations by estimating the distance between the esophageal surface and the superficial edge of the deepest lamina propria. The primary outcome variable was the percentage reduction in Prague length; secondary outcome variables were complete remission of intestinal metaplasia (CRIM) and presence of strictures after 12 months.

RESULTS

Images from 61 patients were included in our final analysis. Mean BET per patient ranged from 224 μm to 705 μm. A 100 μm thicker mean BET per patient resulted in a 12% lower response to treatment, measured by a reduction of Prague length (P = .03), after adjustment for confounders. We found an association between mean BET and CRIM, but not with stricture formation.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on measurements on contrast-enhanced VLE images, we found that BET correlates with response to RFA. For clinical implementation, larger studies with a standardized follow-up and development of computer-aided image analysis systems are needed.

Infliximab Exposure Associates With Radiologic Evidence of Healing in Patients With Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Higher infliximab trough levels are associated with clinical and endoscopic remission in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). We investigated pharmacodynamic features of infliximab and radiological healing.

METHODS

We performed a substudy of the TAILORIX trial (patients with active luminal CD in Europe, treated with infliximab), analyzing baseline and week 54 magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) data. MREs were scored using the MaRIA score by blinded central readers. Radiologic response and remission were defined, based on MaRIA criteria in all segments, as scores below 11 and 7, respectively. We collected data on infliximab trough levels, biomarkers, and endoscopic findings. Our primary aim was to evaluate pharmacodynamic features associated with radiologic response and remission, based on MRE assessments at baseline and at 54 weeks after initiation of infliximab therapy.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 36 patients (50% female; median age 35.7 years; interquartile age range, 25.6-48.6 years; median disease duration, 1.5 months; interquartile duration range, 0.6-22.4 months). At week 54 of treatment, 36.4% of patients had a radiologic response, 30.3% of patients were in remission, and 71% had endoscopic features of remission. At baseline, there was a correlation between the CD endoscopic index of severity and MaRIA scores (κ = 0.46; P = .008), but we found no correlation at week 54 (κ = 0.06; P = .75). Radiologic remission correlated with infliximab trough level at week 14 (P = .049) when the infliximab trough level cut-off value was set at 7.8 μg/mL (area under the curve, 0.74; 75% sensitivity; 86% specificity; 90% negative predictive value; 57% positive predictive value). Radiologic response correlated with infliximab trough levels at week 14 (P = .048) when the infliximab trough level cut-off value was set at 7.8 μg/mL (area under the curve, 0.73; 70% sensitivity; 90% specificity; 86% negative predictive value; 78% positive predictive value) and with continuous pharmacologic evidence of response (infliximab trough levels above 5.0 μg/mL at all time points) (P = .034).

CONCLUSIONS

In a substudy of data from the TAILORIX trial of patients with active luminal CD, we identified a relationship between exposure to infliximab and radiologic evidence of outcomes.

Monitoring Occurrence of Liver-Related Events and Survival by Transient Elastography in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with advanced fibrosis related to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are at risk of developing hepatic and extrahepatic complications. We investigated whether, in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) and their changes can be used to identify patients at risk for liver-related and extrahepatic events.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with NAFLD (n = 1039) with a histologic diagnosis of F3-F4 fibrosis and/or LSMs>10 kPa, followed for at least 6 months, from medical centers in 6 countries. LSMs were made by FibroScan using the M or XL probe and recorded at baseline and within 1 year from the last follow-up examination. Differences between follow up and baseline LSMs were categorized as: improvement (reduction of more than 20%), stable (reduction of 20% to an increase of 20%), impairment (an increase of 20% or more). We recorded hepatic events (such as liver decompensation, ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, jaundice, or hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) and overall and liver-related mortality during a median follow-up time of 35 months (interquartile range, 19-63 months).

RESULTS

Based on Cox regression analysis, baseline LSM was independently associated with occurrence of hepatic decompensation (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04; P < .001), HCC (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.04; P = .003), and liver-related death (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.02-1.03; P = .005). In 533 patients with available LSMs during the follow-up period, change in LSM was independently associated with hepatic decompensation (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.05-2.51; P = .04), HCC (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.01-3.02; P = .04), overall mortality (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.11-2.69; P = .01), and liver-related mortality (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.10-3.38; P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with NAFLD and compensated advanced chronic liver disease, baseline LSM and change in LSM are associated with risk of liver-related events and mortality.

Rates of Postoperative Recurrence of Crohn's Disease and Effects of Immunosuppressive and Biologic Therapies

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The Rutgeerts' scoring system is used to evaluate patients with Crohn's disease (CD) following ileocolic resection, based on endoscopic findings at the anastomosis and in the neoterminal ileum. We investigated rates of clinical and surgical recurrence of CD after surgery and effect of therapy modification based on post-operative endoscopic findings.

METHODS

We collected data from 365 adults with CD (20% with Rutgeerts' score i0, 10% with score i1, 49% with score i2, 12% with score i3, 9% with score i4) who underwent ileocolonoscopy within 12 months of ileocolic resection with anastomosis from 2000 through 2013 at 2 centers in Belgium and France. Patients were followed for 3 y or more after the ileocolonoscopy. Clinical post-operative recurrence (POR) was defined as occurrence of CD symptoms along with biologic, radiologic, and/or endoscopic features of disease activity; modified surgical POR was defined as either an endoscopic or surgical intervention.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up time of 88 months, 48% of patients had clinical POR and 26% had modified surgical POR. Rates of survival without clinical POR or a modified surgical POR were lower in patients with Rutgeerts' scores of i2, i3, or i4 compared to patients with scores of i0 or i1 (P < .001 and P = .02). New immunosuppressant or biological therapy was initiated following endoscopy in 129/254 patients (51%) with Rutgeerts' score of i2, i3, or i4 vs 7/111 patients (6%) with scores of i0 or i1 (odds ratio for new therapy, 14.9; 95% CI, 7.1-36.8; P < .001). A modest decrease in risk of clinical POR was observed for patients with Rutgeerts scores of i3 or i4 after initiation of immunosuppressive or biological therapy based on endoscopic findings (Breslow P = .03), but this was not observed for patients with scores of i2 (Breslow P = .46).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of immunosuppressants and tumor necrosis factor antagonists to treat patients with an asymptomatic endoscopic post-operative recurrence of CD did not reduce long-term risk of clinical recurrence in patients with Rutgeerts' scores of i2, but it had a small effect in patients with scores of i3 or i4.

Level of Tumor Necrosis Factor Production by Stimulated Blood Mononuclear Cells Can Be Used to Predict Response of Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Diseases to Infliximab

BACKGROUND & AIMS

A substantial proportion patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a primary non-response to infliximab; markers are needed to identify patients most likely to respond to treatment. We investigated whether production of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) by peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) can be used as a marker to predict response.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study of 41 adults with IBD (mean age, 38 years; 21 male; 21 with Crohn's disease and 20 with ulcerative colitis) not treated with a biologic agent within the past 6 months; patients were given their first infusion of infliximab at a hospital or clinic in Berlin, Germany. We collected data on clinical scores, levels of C-reactive protein, and ultrasound results (Limberg scores) at baseline (before the first infusion) and after 6 weeks (3^rd infliximab infusion). PMBCs were obtained from patients at baseline and 10 healthy individuals (controls) and incubated with lipopolysaccharide. We measured production of cytokines (TNF, interleukin 1 [IL1], IL6, IL8, IL10, IL12p70, and IL22) by ELISA and performed cytometric bead array and flow cytometry analyses. The primary endpoint was clinical response (decrease in Harvey Bradshaw Index scores of 2 or more or decrease in partial Mayo scores of 3 or more at week 6) in patients with PBMCs that produced high vs low levels of TNF.

RESULTS

Responders had a shorter median disease duration (P = .018) and higher median Limberg score (P = .021), than nonresponders. Baseline PBMCs from responders produced significantly more TNF (P = .049) and IL6 (P = .028) than from nonresponders; a level of 500 pg/ml TNF identified responders with 82% sensitivity and 78% specificity. In patients with Crohn's disease, this cutoff value (500 pg/ml TNF) identified responders with 100% sensitivity and 82% specificity; TNF levels above this level were independently associated with response to infliximab in multivariate analysis (odds ratio, 16.2; 95% CI, 1.8-148.7; P = .014). The percentage of TNF-positive cells was higher among CD14+ monocytes than lymphocytes after stimulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Production of a high level of TNF by PBMCs (specifically CD14+ cells) from patients with IBD can identify those most likely to have a clinical response to infliximab therapy. In patients with Crohn's disease, a cutoff value of 500 pg/ml TNF identified responders with 100% sensitivity and 82% specificity.

Risks, Benefits, and Effects on Management for Biopsy of the Papilla in Patients With Familial Adenomatous Polyposis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Ampullary and duodenal cancer are the leading causes of death in patients with familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) after colectomy has been performed. Risk of duodenal cancer is determined based on Spigelman stage (SS) of duodenal polyposis. Guidelines recommend endoscopic surveillance of the duodenum and visualization of the papilla to stage duodenal polyposis. There is no consensus on whether biopsies should be routinely collected from duodenal papilla and findings included in SS. Additionally, there are no data on the risk of pancreatitis after biopsy collection from papilla of patients with FAP. We studied the incidence of pancreatitis after biopsy of the papilla in patients with FAP and effects of biopsy findings on SS.

METHODS

We identified consecutive patients with FAP at a single center from January 2011 through December 2018 with ≥1 endoscopy with biopsy of the papilla. Patients with history of foregut surgery were excluded. We identified 273 patients with FAP who had biopsies collected from papilla over 792 EGDs, with 1-8 independent exams with biopsy per patient. We collected demographic, endoscopic, and histology data from patients and calculated SS with vs without biopsy findings. Post-procedural pancreatitis was defined by 2 of the following: abdominal pain, lipase level 3-fold the upper limit of normal, or radiography findings consistent with pancreatitis within 7 days of esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD).

RESULTS

Pancreatitis developed in 2 patients (0.73%): 1 after biopsy of a normal-appearing papilla and 1 after biopsy of an abnormal appearing papilla. Inclusions of biopsy data increased SS in 36 patients (13.2%), with consideration of prophylactic duodenectomy for 3.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatitis after biopsy of the duodenal papilla is rare. Histology data obtained from biopsy of the papilla in patients with FAP can change SS and affect patient management.

Association Between Seroclearance of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen and Long-term Clinical Outcomes of Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the desired end point of treatment for chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, according to guidelines. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the strength of the association between HBsAg seroclearance and long-term clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases for articles that assessed HBsAg status and reported the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver decompensation, liver transplantation, and/or all-cause mortality during follow-up evaluation. We performed a meta-analysis of rate ratios (RR) using a random-effects model independently for each end point and for a composite end point.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 28 studies, comprising a total of 188,316 patients with chronic HBV infection (treated and untreated), and 1,486,081 person-years (PY) of follow-up evaluation; 26 reported data on HCC, 7 on liver decompensation, and 13 on liver transplantation and/or death. The composite event rates were 0.19/1000 PY for the HBsAg seroclearance group and 2.45/1000 PY for the HBsAg-persistent group. Pooled RRs for the HBsAg seroclearance group were 0.28 for liver decompensation (95% CI, 0.13-0.59; P = .001), 0.30 for HCC (95% CI, 0.20-0.44; P < .001), 0.22 for liver transplantation and/or death (95% CI, 0.13-0.39; P < .001), and 0.31 for the composite end point (95% CI, 0.23-0.43; P < .001). No differences in RR estimates were observed among subgroups of different study or patient characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

In a systematic review and meta-analysis, we found seroclearance of HBsAg to be associated significantly with improved patient outcomes. The results are consistent among different types of studies, in all patient subpopulations examined, and support the use of HBsAg seroclearance as a primary end point of trials of patients with chronic HBV infection.

Factors Associated With Response to Anorectal Biofeedback Therapy in Patients With Fecal Incontinence

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Anorectal biofeedback (BF) is commonly used to treat patients with fecal incontinence (FI), but demand usually exceeds availability. It is therefore important to identify patients most likely to respond to BF treatment. We aimed to identify pre-treatment clinical or physiologic factors that might be used to predict completion and success of BF in women with FI.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 400 women with FI (mean age, 61 ± 14 y) undergoing instrumental BF in a tertiary care setting from 2003 through 2016. All patients completed questionnaires before BF, including Rome and the hospital anxiety and depression scale questionnaires. Histories of medication use, surgery, medical conditions, and bowel pattern were recorded, urge was assessed, and patients kept stool diaries. Before and after treatment (6 weekly sessions with a gastroenterologist-supervised nurse specialist, 4 involving instrumented anorectal biofeedback), patients were examined by a physician and fecal incontinence severity index and visual analogue scale scores were recorded. The main outcome measure was response to therapy, defined as improvement of 50% or more in weekly FI episodes at the end of BF compared with before BF.

RESULTS

The BF treatment was completed by 363 women (91%); of these, 62 had low baseline symptom frequency (no FI episodes in the 2 weeks before BF). Younger age was associated with failure to complete treatment. Of the 301 patients remaining, 202 patients (67%) had a response to therapy; among these women, urge FI was associated with response at end of BF, but not at follow up (6 months after therapy). Baseline severity of symptom scores and quality of life measures were associated with greater improvement in the same variable at the end of BF and after 6 months. Patients with low baseline symptom frequency improved in all secondary outcome measures, similar to patients with higher baseline symptom frequency.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of 363 women with FI, approximately two-thirds had a response to BF treatment. Urge FI was the only baseline variable associated with response. Baseline severity of symptoms and quality of life measures were associated with greater improvement in the same variable, but not overall response. It is therefore a challenge to select treatment for patients with FI.

Baseline Clearance of Infliximab Is Associated With Requirement for Colectomy in Patients With Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hospitalized patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) often require surgery. Although the tumor necrosis factor antagonist infliximab is an effective salvage therapy to prevent colectomy in patients with ASUC, optimal dosing is unclear. Calculated infliximab clearance has been associated with important outcomes in patients with ulcerative colitis, but its utility in patients with ASUC has not been established. We assessed the relationship between calculated the baseline infliximab clearance before infliximab salvage therapy and the requirement for colectomy in patients hospitalized for ASUC.

METHODS

We obtained data from hospitalized patients with ASUC who initiated infliximab therapy. We then calculated the baseline infliximab drug clearance in these patients based on an existing formula. The primary aim was to compare clearance between patients who required colectomy 6 months later and patients who did not require colectomy. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses evaluated clearance thresholds for colectomy. Multivariable logistic regression analysis evaluated factors associated with colectomy.

RESULTS

In 39 patients with ASUC, the median baseline calculated clearance was higher in patients requiring colectomy at 6 months than in patients without colectomy (0.733 vs 0.569 L/d; P = .005). An infliximab clearance threshold of 0.627 L/d identified patients who required colectomy with 80.0% sensitivity and 82.8% specificity (area under the curve, 0.80). A higher proportion of patients with infliximab clearance of 0.627 L/d or more underwent colectomy within 6 months (61.5%) than patients with lower infliximab clearance values (7.7%) (P = .001). Multivariable analysis identified baseline infliximab clearance as the only factor associated with colectomy. The infliximab dose in the hospital was higher in patients who required colectomy. Results were similar at 30 days and 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients hospitalized with ASUC, higher values of calculated infliximab clearance before infliximab administration is associated with higher rates of colectomy. Although patients who required colectomies received higher doses, data on infliximab concentrations are lacking. Infliximab pharmacokinetic models are needed for patients with ASUC to allow comparative trials on clearance-based vs standard dosing.

Persistent Diarrhea in Patients With Crohn's Disease After Mucosal Healing Is Associated With Lower Diversity of the Intestinal Microbiome and Increased Dysbiosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs), symptoms do not always associate with the severity of endoscopic inflammation and can persist after mucosal healing. We investigated whether symptoms in patients with successfully treated IBD are related to the composition of the intestinal microbiome.

METHODS

We analyzed 590 tissue biopsy specimens from 215 patients with IBD and 48 healthy individuals (controls). We obtained mucosal biopsy specimens from 2 colon sites (ascending and rectosigmoid) and from the terminal ileum along with clinical data. Bacterial DNA was extracted from the biopsy specimens and the V4 region of 16s ribosomal RNA sequenced by Miseq and processed using the QIIME v1.9 pipeline.

RESULTS

Mucosal biopsy specimens from patients with Crohn's disease (CD) who achieved mucosal healing (Mayo scores of 0-1 or segmental endoscopic severity CD scores of 0-5) had lower Chao1 diversity than biopsy specimens from patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) or unclassified IBD (IBD-U), or controls. After endoscopic evidence of improvement in patients with UC or IBD-U, diversity of the tissue-associated microbiota did not differ significantly from that of controls. Colon biopsy specimens from patients with CD had lower microbial diversity, before and after healing (segmental endoscopic severity CD scores, 0-2), than colon biopsy specimens from controls (P < .002). In patients with CD who achieved mucosal healing, residual clinical activity (CD activity index scores >150; P = .03) and persistent diarrhea were associated with reduced microbial diversity (P = .01). Continued diarrhea was associated with a trend toward dysbiosis, based on the microbial dysbiosis index (P = .059). In patients with UC or IBD-U with moderate to severe inflammation, increasing severity of diarrhea was associated with reduced microbial diversity (P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of biopsy specimens from patients with IBD and controls, we found that despite endoscopic evidence of improvement or remission, α-diversity of the tissue-associated intestinal microbiome remained lower in patients with CD than in controls. This observation, along with the reduced Chao1 diversity and greater dysbiosis in intestinal microbiota of patients with residual symptoms of IBD, indicates that microbiome composition could be associated with persistent diarrhea.

Sarcopenia as a Predictor of Prognosis in Early Stage Ovarian Cancer

BACKGROUND

To identify sarcopenia as a predictive prognostic factor of ovarian cancer in terms of survival outcome in patients with early-stage ovarian cancer.

METHODS

Data of Konkuk University Medical Center from March 2002 to December 2017 were reviewed retrospectively. Eighty-two patients who underwent surgery due to early-stage (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage I/II) ovarian cancer and had computed tomography (CT) images taken at the initial diagnosis were included. The initial CT scan images were analyzed with SliceOmatic software (TomoVision). A sarcopenia cutoff value was defined as a skeletal muscle index of ≤ 38.7 cm²/m². Overall survival (OS) times were compared according to the existence of sarcopenia, and subgroup analyses were performed.

RESULTS

A Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant survival disadvantage for patients with early-stage ovarian cancer when they had sarcopenia (P < 0.001; log-rank test). Sarcopenia remained a significant prognostic factor for OS in early-stage ovarian cancer, in a Cox proportional hazards model regression analysis (HR, 21.9; 95% CI, 2.0-199.9; P = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that sarcopenia was predictive of OS in patients with early-stage ovarian cancer. Further prospective studies with a larger number of patients are warranted to determine the extent to which sarcopenia can be used as a prognostic factor in ovarian cancer.

Serum Levels of α-Fetoprotein Increased More Than 10 Years Before Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Ultrasound (US)-based screening has been recommended for patients with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). US analysis, however, is limited in patients who are obese or have small tumors. The addition of serum level of α-fetoprotein (AFP) measurements to US analysis can increase detection of HCC. We analyzed data from patients with chronic liver disease, collected over 15 years in an HCC surveillance program, to develop a model to assess risk of HCC.

METHODS

We collected data from 3450 patients with chronic liver disease undergoing US surveillance in Japan from March 1998 through April 2014, and followed them up for a median of 8.83 years. We performed longitudinal discriminant analysis of serial AFP measurements (median number of observations/patient, 56; approximately every 3 months) to develop a model to determine the risk of HCC. We validated the model using data from 2 cohorts of patients with chronic liver disease in Japan (404 and 2754 patients) and 1 cohort in Scotland (1596 patients).

RESULTS

HCC was detected in 413 patients (median tumor diameter, 1.8 cm), during a median follow-up time of 6.60 years. In the development data set, the model identified patients who developed HCC with an area under the curve of 0.78; it correctly identified 74.3% of patients who did develop HCC, and 72.9% of patients who did not. Overall, 73.1% of patients were classified correctly. The model could be used to assign patients to a high-risk group (27.5 HCCs/1000 patient-years) vs a low-risk group (4.9 HCCs/1000 patient-years). A similar performance was observed when the model was used to assess patients with cirrhosis. Analysis of the validation cohorts produced similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a model to identify patients with chronic liver disease who are at risk for HCC based on change in serum AFP level over time. The model could be used to assign patients to high-risk vs low-risk groups, and might be used to select patients for surveillance.

Fecal Microbiota Transplantation Reduces Symptoms in Some Patients With Irritable Bowel Syndrome With Predominant Abdominal Bloating: Short- and Long-term Results From a Placebo-Controlled Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a functional gastrointestinal disorder associated with intestinal dysbiosis. Given the reported promising results of open-label fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) therapy in patients with predominant abdominal bloating, we studied efficacy of this treatment in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

METHODS

Patients with refractory IBS, defined as failure of ≥3 conventional therapies, were randomly assigned to single-dose nasojejunal administration of donor stools (n = 43) or autologous stools (n = 19) in a double-blind study, performed from December 2015 through October 2017, and were followed up for 1 year. IBS-related symptoms were assessed by using a daily symptom diary to determine general abdominal discomfort, abdominal bloating, abdominal pain, and flatulence on a scale of 1-6. Number of daily bowel movements, consistency of the stools, and abdominal circumference were also recorded. Patients completed the IBS-specific quality of life questionnaire. Primary endpoints were improvement of IBS symptoms and bloating at 12 weeks (response). Secondary endpoints were changes in IBS symptom scores and quality of life. Stool samples were collected for microbiota amplicon sequencing. Open-label retransplantation was offered after the trial.

RESULTS

At week 12, 56% of patients given donor stool reported improvement in both primary endpoints compared with 26% of patients given placebo (P = .03). Patients given donor stool had significant improvements in level of discomfort (mean reduction, 19%; median score before FMT, 3.98; range, 2.13-6.00; median score after FMT, 3.1; range, 951.29-5.90), stool frequency (mean reduction, 13%; median score before FMT, 2.10; range, 0.57-14.29; median score after FMT 1.7; range, 0.71-4.29), urgency (mean reduction, 38%; median score before FMT, 0.61; range, 0.00-1.00; median score after FMT, 0.37; range, 0.00-1.00), abdominal pain (mean reduction, 26%; median score before FMT, 3.88; range, 1.57-5.17; median score after FMT, 2.80; range, 1.14-4.94), flatulence (mean reduction, 10%; median score before FMT, 3.42; range, 0.71-6.00; median score after FMT, 3.07; range, 0.79-4.23), and quality of life (mean increase, 16%; median score before FMT 32.6; range, 11-119; median score after FMT, 43.1; range, 32.25-99). A significantly higher proportion of women given donor stool (69%) had a response than men (29%) (P = .01). Fecal samples from responders had higher diversity of microbiomes before administration of donor material than fecal samples from nonresponders (P = .04) and distinct baseline composition (P = .04), but no specific marker taxa were associated with response. After single FMT, 21% of patients given donor stool reported effects that lasted for longer than 1 year compared with 5% of patients given placebo stool. A second FMT reduced symptoms in 67% of patients with an initial response to donor stool but not in patients with a prior nonresponse.

CONCLUSIONS

In a randomized trial of patients with treatment-refractory IBS with predominant bloating, FMT relieved symptoms compared with placebo (autologous transplant), although the effects decreased over 1 year. A second FMT restored the response patients with a prior response. Response was associated with composition of the fecal microbiomes before FMT; this might be used to as a biomarker to select patients for this treatment. ClinicalTrials.gov, Number: NCT02299973.

Primary platinum resistance and its prognostic impact in patients with recurrent ovarian cancer: an analysis of three prospective trials from the NOGGO study group

Objective

Patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC) have a high need for reliable prognostic markers. Since significance of primary platinum resistance (PPR) versus secondary platinum resistance (SPR) was identified for patients receiving anti-angiogenic therapy, it has not been confirmed for chemotherapy only.

Methods

PROC patients from 3 prospective trials of the NOGGO study group (TOWER, NOGGO-Treosulfan, and TRIAS) were included in this meta-analysis. Exploratory Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed to correlate progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) with the timing when platinum resistance developed.

Results

Of 477 patients, 264 (55.3%) were classified as PPR, compared to 213 (44.7%) with SPR. For patients receiving chemotherapy only, SPR was associated with a significantly longer median PFS of 3.9 compared to 3.1 months for PPR (hazard ratio [HR]=0.78; p=0.015). SPR versus PPR was confirmed to be an independent prognostic factor for better PFS in multivariate analysis (HR=0.74; p=0.029). Benefit from adding sorafenib to chemotherapy was mainly seen in PPR (HR=0.40; p<0.001) compared to SPR patients (HR=0.83; p=0.465).

Conclusions

Prognostic significance of SPR versus PPR could be elucidated for patients receiving chemotherapy only. In contrast to bevacizumab, the multi-kinase inhibitor sorafenib exhibits profound therapeutic efficacy in PPR patients indicating potential to overcome this negative prognostic impact.

Peak Concentrations of Ustekinumab After Intravenous Induction Therapy Identify Patients With Crohn's Disease Likely to Achieve Endoscopic and Biochemical Remission

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about the relationship between ustekinumab exposure during the first 2 weeks of treatment and outcomes of patients with Crohn's disease (CD). We investigated the relationship between serum concentrations of ustekinumab during the first 2 weeks of treatment and endoscopic and biochemical remission in patients with CD.

METHODS

In a prospective observational study, we measured concentrations of ustekinumab in serum samples from 41 consecutive patients who started treatment with ustekinumab (approximately 6 mg/kg, intravenously, then 90 mg every 8 weeks), due to endoscopic markers of active CD, at a single center from October 2017 through January 2019. We measured ustekinumab exposure parameters during the first 2 weeks (peak concentration measured immediately after intravenous infusion, week 2 concentration, and area under the curve through week 2). We investigated the correlation between these parameters and endoscopic remission (simple endoscopic score for CD scores of 3 or less without ulceration, assessed centrally) and biochemical remission (level of fecal calprotectin below 100 mg/kg) using the Mann-Whitney U test.

RESULTS

Endoscopic remission was achieved in 10 patients (24.4%) at week 24; biochemical remission was achieved in 17 patients (41.5%) at week 8, 17 patients (41.5%) at week 16, and 21 patients (51.2%) at week 24. Peak concentrations associated with endoscopic remission (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.717; 95% CI, 0.517-0.916); 6 of 13 patients (46%) with peak concentrations above 105 μg/mL (upper tercile) achieved endoscopic remission, compared with only 1 of 14 patients (7%) with peak concentrations below 88 μg/mL (lower tercile). All exposure parameters during the first 2 weeks were associated with biochemical remission. There was no significant difference between the associations of peak concentrations, week-2 concentrations, area under the curve through week 2, or later exposure measures (at weeks 4 and 8) with biochemical or endoscopic remission.

CONCLUSIONS

In a prospective study, we found that serum concentrations of ustekinumab as early as 1 hour after intravenous infusion might be used to identify patients with CD most likely to achieve endoscopic remission. This early measurement might be used to optimize treatment of CD.

Long-term outcomes of cervical cancer patients with complete metabolic response after definitive chemoradiotherapy

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the importance of metabolic parameters measured with ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron-emission tomography integrated with computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT) for predicting progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in cervical cancer with complete metabolic response (CMR) after chemoradiotherapy (ChRT).

METHODS

The clinical data and PET parameters including standardized uptake value (SUV), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) of 122 patients having CMR in post-treatment ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT delivered a median of 3.9 months after ChRT completion were analyzed.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 55 patients (45%) presented with disease a median of 19.7 months after ChRT. For SUVp, MTVp, TLGp, SUVln, MTVln, and TLGp, the cut-off values for OS determined by receiver operating curve analysis were 15.8, 48.7 cm³, 552.3, 8.7, 7.0 cm³, respectively. All metabolic PET parameters were significant prognostic factors for OS and PFS in univariate analysis. International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage was predictive of both OS and PFS, while pelvic and/or para-aortic lymph node metastasis were predictive of OS only. In multivariate analysis, FIGO stage ≥IIB, MTVp ≥49.8 cm³, and TLGp ≥597.4 were predictive of worse OS. Advanced stage, presence of lymph node metastasis, higher TLGp, and larger MTVln were significant factors for poor PFS rates.

CONCLUSION

We found that advanced stage and higher TLGp values were significant predictors for poor survival and higher progression rates. Volumetric PET parameters could be used to predict treatment outcomes in patients with CMR after definitive ChRT.

Ovarian cancer risk score predicts chemo-response and outcome in epithelial ovarian carcinoma patients

OBJECTIVE

Cytoreductive surgery followed by adjuvant chemotherapy is a standard frontline treatment for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). We aimed to develop an ovarian cancer risk score (OVRS) based on the expression of 10 ovarian-cancer-related genes to predict the chemoresistance, and outcomes of EOC patients.

METHODS

We designed a case-control study with total 149 EOC women including 75 chemosensitives and 74 chemoresistants. Gene expression was measured using the quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. We tested for correlation between the OVRS and chemosensitivity or chemoresistance, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS), and validated the OVRS by analyzing patients from the TCGA database.

RESULTS

The chemosensitive group had lower OVRS than the chemoresistant group (5 vs. 15, p≤0.001, Mann-Whitney U test). Patients with disease relapse (13 vs. 5, p<0.001, Mann-Whitney U test) or disease-related death (13.5 vs. 6, p<0.001) had higher OVRS than those without. OVRS ≥10 (hazard ratio=3.29; 95% confidence interval=1.94-5.58; p<0.001) was the only predictor for chemoresistance in multivariate analysis. The median DFS (5 months vs. 24 months) and OS (39 months vs. >60 months) of patients with OVRS ≥10 were significantly shorter than those of patients with OVRS <10). The high OVRS group also had significantly shorter median OS than the low OVRS group in 255 patients in the TCGA database (39 vs. 49 months, p=0.046).

CONCLUSIONS

Specific genes panel can be clinically applied in predicting the chemoresistance and outcome, and decision-making of epithelial ovarian cancer.

Development and Validation of Clinical Scoring Tool to Predict Outcomes of Treatment With Vedolizumab in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We created and validated a clinical decision support tool (CDST) to predict outcomes of vedolizumab therapy for ulcerative colitis (UC).

METHODS

We performed logistic regression analyses of data from the GEMINI 1 trial, from 620 patients with UC who received vedolizumab induction and maintenance therapy (derivation cohort), to identify factors associated with corticosteroid-free remission (full Mayo score of 2 or less, no subscore above 1). We used these factors to develop a model to predict outcomes of treatment, which we called the vedolizumab CDST. We evaluated the correlation between exposure and efficacy. We validated the CDST in using data from 199 patients treated with vedolizumab in routine practice in the United States from May 2014 through December 2017.

RESULTS

Absence of exposure to a tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonist (+3 points), disease duration of 2 y or more (+3 points), baseline endoscopic activity (moderate vs severe) (+2 points), and baseline albumin concentration (+0.65 points per 1 g/L) were independently associated with corticosteroid-free remission during vedolizumab therapy. Patients in the derivation and validation cohorts were assigned to groups of low (CDST score, 26 points or less), intermediate (CDST score, 27-32 points), or high (CDST score, 33 points or more) probability of vedolizumab response. We observed a statistically significant linear relationship between probability group and efficacy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.65), as well as drug exposure (P < .001) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort, a cutoff value of 26 points identified patients who did not respond to vedolizumab with high sensitivity (93%); only the low and intermediate probability groups benefited from reducing intervals of vedolizumab administration due to lack of response (P = .02). The vedolizumab CDST did not identify patients with corticosteroid-free remission during TNF antagonist therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

We used data from a trial of patients with UC to develop a scoring system, called the CDST, which identified patients most likely to enter corticosteroid-free remission during vedolizumab therapy, but not anti-TNF therapy. We validated the vedolizumab CDST in a separate cohort of patients in clinical practice. The CDST identified patients most likely to benefited from reducing intervals of vedolizumab administration due to lack of initial response. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT00783718.

Validation of an Algorithm to Identify Patients at Risk for Colorectal Cancer Based on Laboratory Test and Demographic Data in Diverse, Community-Based Population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Approximately 30%-40% of screening-eligible adults in the United States are not up to date with colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. We aimed to validate a predictive score, generated by a machine learning algorithm with common laboratory test data, to identify patients at high risk for CRC in a large, community-based, ethnically diverse cohort.

METHODS

We performed a nested case-control study using data from members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California (1996-2015). Cases were cohort members who received a complete blood cell count at ages 50-75 y, did not have a prior or current diagnosis of CRC diagnosis at the time of the blood cell count, and were subsequently diagnosed with CRC. We used data from the cohort to validate the ability of an algorithm that uses laboratory and demographic information to identify patients at increased risk for CRC. Test performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and odds ratios (OR) with 95% CI values to compare high (defined as 97% specificity or more) vs low scores.

RESULTS

A high score from the algorithm identified patients with a CRC diagnosis within the next 6 months with 35.4% sensitivity (95% CI, 33.8-36.7) and an AUROC of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77-0.78). Patients with a high score had an increased risk of diagnosis with early-stage CRC (OR, 13.1; 95% CI, 11.8-14.3) and advanced stage CRC (OR, 24.8; 95% CI, 22.4-27.3) within the next 6 months. In patients with high scores, the ORs for proximal and distal cancers were 34.7 (95% CI, 31.5-37.7) and 12.1 (95% CI, 10.1-13.9), respectively. The algorithm's accuracy decreased with the time interval between blood test result and CRC diagnosis; performance did not differ by sex or race.

CONCLUSIONS

We validated a predictive model that uses complete blood cell count and demographic data to identify patients at high risk of CRC. The algorithm identified 3% of the population who require an investigation and identified 35% of patients who received a diagnosis of CRC within the next 6 months.

Intestinal Virome Signature Associated With Severity of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alterations in the gut microbiome have been associated with the severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Previous studies focused exclusively on the bacteria in the microbiome; we investigated changes in the viral microbiome (virome) in patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

In a prospective, cross-sectional, observational study, we extracted RNA and DNA virus-like particles from fecal samples from 73 patients with NAFLD: 29 patients had an NAFLD Activity Score (NAS) of 0-4, 44 patients had an NAS of 5-8 or liver cirrhosis (LCI), 37 patients had F0-F1 fibrosis, and 36 patients had F2-F4 fibrosis. As controls, 9 individuals without liver disease and 13 patients with mild primary biliary cholangitis were included in the analysis. We performed shotgun metagenomic sequencing of virus-like particles.

RESULTS

Patients with NAFLD and NAS 5-8/LCI had a significant decrease in intestinal viral diversity compared with patients with NAFLD and NAS 0-4 or control individuals. The presence of more advanced NAFLD was associated with a significant reduction in the proportion of bacteriophages compared with other intestinal viruses. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis with leave-1-out cross validation, we developed a model, including a viral diversity index and simple clinical variables, that identified patients with NAS 5-8/LCI with an area under the curve of 0.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.91-0.99) and F2-F4 fibrosis with an area under the curve of 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.95). Addition of data on viral diversity significantly improved multivariate models, including those based on only clinical parameters or bacterial diversity.

CONCLUSIONS

In a study of fecal viromes from patients with NAFLD and control individuals, we associated histologic markers of NAFLD severity with significant decreases in viral diversity and proportion of bacteriophages. We developed a model based on fecal viral diversity and clinical data that identifies patients with severe NAFLD and fibrosis more accurately than models based only on clinical or bacterial data.

The systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) is an independent prognostic parameter of survival in patients with invasive vulvar cancer

Objective

To assess the prognostic value of the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) in patients with vulvar cancer.

Methods

Data of 130 consecutive patients who underwent primary surgical resection for vulvar cancer at the Medical University of Vienna between 1999 and 2018 was retrospectively analyzed. The SII was defined as platelets × neutrophils/lymphocytes as previously described. Its prognostic value on disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) was evaluated by univariate log-rank tests and multivariable cox regression models. Prediction accuracy was assessed by receiver operating characteristics curves and Youden's J statistics. A Hosmer-Lemeshow test was performed to confirm the model's goodness of fit.

Results

A pre-therapeutic high serum SII (>866.4) was associated with advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO)-stage. In univariate survival analysis, a high SII was associated with both DSS (p<0.001) and OS (p=0.001). A multivariate cox regression model confirmed the prognostic value of SII regarding DSS (p<0.001) and OS (p=0.014) independently from patients' age and FIGO stage.

Conclusions

Pretherapeutic SII may serve as a promising predictor for survival in patients with vulvar cancer. After clinical validation, the SII may be used to improve both pre-treatment patient risk stratification and patient counseling.

Complete Resolution of Mucosal Neutrophils Associates With Improved Long-Term Clinical Outcomes of Patients With Ulcerative Colitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We investigated correlations between histologic features of the colonic mucosa in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) and clinical outcomes during a 3-year follow-up period.

METHODS

We obtained baseline biopsies from all colorectal segments (n = 889) from 281 patients with UC enrolled in a prospective study at a single center from 2009 through 2013. Biopsies were assessed in a blinded manner using validated histologic scoring systems (the Geboes score, Nancy histopathologic index, and Robarts histopathologic index). Clinical, endoscopic, and histologic data were collected and tested for correlations with systemic corticosteroid use, hospitalization, and colectomy within 3 years of the index colonoscopy.

RESULTS

We found histologic evidence of UC activity (Geboes score ≥ 2B.1) in biopsies from 182 patients (65%) and endoscopic evidence of UC activity in 149 patients (53%) (substantial agreement, κ = 0.60). Histologic features of UC activity were associated with increased rates of systemic corticosteroid use, colectomy, and hospitalization in the entire cohort (P < .05 for all) and associated with increased rates of systemic corticosteroid use in an analysis limited to patients in endoscopic remission (P < .001). In patients in endoscopic remission, only histologic activity was independently associated with use of systemic corticosteroids (multivariate odds ratio, 6.34; 95% CI, 2.20-18.28; P = .001). Similar results were seen when the entire cohort was analyzed. Compared with patients without histologic evidence of UC activity, patients with only a small number of mucosal neutrophils still had higher rates of systemic corticosteroid use (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Histologic evidence of UC activity, including small numbers of neutrophils in the colonic mucosa, is the only factor independently associated with use of systemic corticosteroids. Complete resolution of neutrophil-associated inflammation should be a target for treatment of UC.

Histologic Healing Is More Strongly Associated with Clinical Outcomes in Ileal Crohn's Disease than Endoscopic Healing

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Deep remission, based on clinical remission and evidence of healing during endoscopic evaluation, are goals of medical treatments for Crohn's disease (CD). We investigated whether histologic healing is associated with outcomes of patients with CD ileitis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 101 patients with CD (52% male) isolated to the terminal ileum who had a colonoscopy between September 2005 and June 2015. Our analysis included patients in clinical remission at colonoscopy who had biopsies collected from colon and ileum. The ileum was evaluated for endoscopic healing (no ulceration) and histologic evidence of healing (no active inflammation, erosions, ulceration, or neutrophil infiltration). We compared times of clinical relapse-free survival, medication escalation, corticosteroid use, or hospitalization secondary to disease activity between patients with and without histological and endoscopic healing, followed for a median 21 months. We identified factors associated with survival using Kaplan Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

At ileo-colonoscopy, 63% of patients had endoscopic healing and 55% had histologic evidence of healing. The level of agreement between endoscopic and histologic activity was fair (62%, K = 0.2250, P = .0064). Forty-two patients had clinical relapse, 45 had medication escalation, 30 required corticosteroids, and 17 were hospitalized (3 required surgery). On multivariate analysis, only histologic healing was associated with decreased risk of clinical relapse (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.07-3.94; P = .031), medication escalation (HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.2-3.96; P = .011), and corticosteroid use (HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.17-5.09; P = .018). No factors were associated with hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ileal CD in clinical remission, histologic healing but not endoscopic healing is associated with decreased risk of clinical relapse, medication escalation, or corticosteroid use.

Genome-Wide Association Study for Alcohol-Related Cirrhosis Identifies Risk Loci in MARC1 and HNRNPUL1

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about genetic factors that affect development of alcohol-related cirrhosis. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of samples from the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) to identify polymorphisms associated with risk of alcohol-related liver disease.

METHODS

We performed a GWAS of 35,839 participants in the UKB with high intake of alcohol against markers of hepatic fibrosis (FIB-4, APRI, and Forns index scores) and hepatocellular injury (levels of aminotransferases). Loci identified in the discovery analysis were tested for their association with alcohol-related cirrhosis in 3 separate European cohorts (phase 1 validation cohort; n=2545). Variants associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis in the validation at a false discovery rate of less than 20% were then directly genotyped in 2 additional European validation cohorts (phase 2 validation, n=2068).

RESULTS

In the GWAS of the discovery cohort, we identified 50 independent risk loci with genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). Nine of these loci were significantly associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis in the phase 1 validation cohort; 6 of these 9 loci were significantly associated with alcohol-related cirrhosis in phase 2 validation cohort, at a false discovery rate below 5%. The loci included variants in the mitochondrial amidoxime reducing component 1 gene (MARC1) and the heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein U like 1 gene (HNRNPUL1). After we adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and type-2 diabetes in the phase 2 validation cohort, the minor A allele of MARC1:rs2642438 was associated with reduced risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio, 0.76; P=.0027); conversely, the minor C allele of HNRNPUL1:rs15052 was associated with an increased risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; P=.020).

CONCLUSIONS

In a GWAS of samples from the UKB, we identified and validated (in 5 European cohorts) single-nucleotide polymorphisms that affect risk of alcohol-related cirrhosis in opposite directions: the minor A allele in MARC1:rs2642438 decreases risk, whereas the minor C allele in HNRNPUL1:rs15052 increases risk.

A Model to Identify Heavy Drinkers at High Risk for Liver Disease Progression

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) causes chronic liver disease. We investigated how information on patients' drinking history and amount, stage of liver disease, and demographic feature can be used to determine risk of disease progression.

METHODS

We collected data from 2334 heavy drinkers (50 g/day or more) with persistently abnormal results from liver tests who had been admitted to a hepato-gastroenterology unit in France from January 1982 through December 1997; patients with a recorded duration of alcohol abuse were assigned to the development cohort (n=1599; 75% men) or the validation cohort (n=735; 75% men), based on presence of a liver biopsy. We collected data from both cohorts on patient history and disease stage at the time of hospitalization. For the development cohort, severity of the disease was scored by the METAVIR (due to the availability of liver histology reports); in the validation cohort only the presence of liver complications was assessed. We developed a model of ALD progression and occurrence of liver complications (hepatocellular carcinoma and/or liver decompensation) in association with exposure to alcohol, age at the onset of heavy drinking, amount of alcohol intake, sex and body mass index. The model was fitted to the development cohort and then evaluated in the validation cohort. We then tested the ability of the model to predict disease progression for any patient profile (baseline evaluation). Patients with a 5-y weighted risk of liver complications greater than 5% were considered at high risk for disease progression.

RESULTS

Model results are given for the following patient profiles: men and women, 40 y old, who started drinking at an age of 25 y, drank 150 g/day, and had a body mass index of 22 kg/m² according to the disease severity at baseline evaluation. For men with baseline F0-F2 fibrosis, the model estimated the probabilities of normal liver, steatosis, or steatohepatitis at baseline to be 31.8%, 61.5% and 6.7%, respectively. The 5-y weighted risk of liver complications was 1.9%, ranging from 0.2% for men with normal liver at baseline evaluation to 10.3% for patients with steatohepatitis at baseline. For women with baseline F0-F2 fibrosis, probabilities of normal liver, steatosis, or steatohepatitis at baseline were 25.1%, 66.5% and 8.4%, respectively; the 5-y weighted risk of liver complications was 3.2%, ranging from 0.5% for women with normal liver at baseline to 14.7% for patients with steatohepatitis at baseline. Based on the model, men with F3-F4 fibrosis at baseline have a 24.5% 5-y weighted risk of complications (ranging from 20.2% to 34.5%) and women have a 30.1% 5-y weighted risk of complications (ranging from 24.7% to 41.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a Markov model that integrates data on level and duration of alcohol use to identify patients at high risk of liver disease progression. This model might be used to adapt patient care pathways.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Fibrosis Associated With Increased Risk of Cardiovascular Events in a Prospective Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are at increased chance for cardiovascular events (CVEs). Severity of liver fibrosis is used to determine prognoses for patients with NAFLD, but little is known about the relationship between liver fibrosis and CVEs in the real world.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the prospective observational progression of liver damage and cardiometabolic disorders in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease study, comprising 898 consecutive outpatients (mean age, 56.4 ± 12.7 years; 37.5% women) screened for liver steatosis by ultrasound according to Hamagughi criteria. Liver fibrosis was defined as FIB-4 score greater than 2.67 and NAFLD fibrosis score greater than 0.676. After enrolment, patients were interviewed by phone every 6 months and examined every 12 months in the outpatient clinic, and CVEs were recorded (fatal or nonfatal ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction, cardiac or peripheral revascularization, new-onset arterial fibrillation and cardiovascular death). The primary outcomes were incidence rate of CVEs in patients with vs without NAFLD and factors associated with CVEs in patients with NAFLD.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up time of 41.4 months (3044.4 patient-years), 58 CVEs (1.9%/year) were registered. The rate of CVEs was higher in patients with (n = 643, 2.1%/year) vs without NAFLD (n = 255, 1.0%/year) (P = .066). In multivariable Cox proportional regression analysis, NAFLD increased risk for CVEs (hazard ratio [HR], 2.41; 95% CI, 1.06-5.47; P = .036), after adjustment for metabolic syndrome. Among patients with NAFLD, male sex, previous CVEs, metabolic syndrome and FIB-4 scores greater than 2.67 (HR, 4.02; 95% CI, 1.21-13.38; P = .023) were independently associated with risk of incident CVEs. NFS scores greater than 0.676 were also independently associated with risk of incident CVEs (HR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.05-5.27; P = .038).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of data from a study of patients screened for NAFLD and followed, individuals with NAFLD had more than a 2-fold increase in risk of CVEs, and those with liver fibrosis had a 4-fold increase in risk. In patients with NAFLD, liver fibrosis indexes were independently associated with risk of incident CVEs. ClinicalTrials.gov no:NCT04036357.

Prognostic Factors for Survival of Patients with Biliary Atresia Following Kasai Surgery

Biliary atresia (BA) is a progressive obstruction and fibro-obliteration of the extrahepatic and intrahepatic biliary tract that causes cholestatic jaundice in infants, resulting in biliary cirrhosis and even death in the first year of life if the Kasai procedure is not performed at an earlier age. There are many prognostic factors that could affect the survival of patients with BA after Kasai surgery, however results still show some conflicting findings. A retrospective study was conducted using medical records of patients with BA who underwent Kasai surgery at Dr. Sardjito Hospital, Yogyakarta, Indonesia from June 2012 to April 2018. Twenty-nine BA patients were involved in our study, with 16 males and 13 females. Log-rank analysis showed a significant association between survival rate of BA patients with albumin level 1 month and 3 months after Kasai surgery, with p-values of 0.043 and 0.016, respectively. Interestingly, multivariate analysis revealed that cholangitis tended to have an association with BA patients' survival (p=0.09). In conclusion, the BA patients' survival might be affected by the presence of cholangitis after Kasai surgery. Further multicenter studies with a larger sample size are important to verify our results.

Response Assessed by Ultrasonography as Target of Biological Treatment for Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Mucosal healing, determined by ileocolonoscopy, is a goal for treatment of Crohn's disease (CD), but this is an invasive assessment procedure. We investigated whether response to tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists, determined by small-intestine contrast ultrasonography, associates with long-term outcomes.

METHODS

We performed observational study of 80 patients with CD treated with anti-TNF agents for at least 1 year who underwent serial small intestine contrast ultrasonography (SICUS) at the University of Rome, in Italy. SICUS was used to evaluate disease site (based on bowel wall thickness), extent of lesions, and presence of complications. Inclusion criteria required pre-therapy SICUS with follow-up SICUS after 18 months. At second SICUS, patients were assigned to categories of complete or partial responder or non-responder. CD-related outcomes (corticosteroid need, hospitalization, and surgery) were assessed at 1 year from the second SICUS, using multivariate models, and were analyzed after long term follow up (5 years) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

RESULTS

Based on SICUS, after a median of 18 months, 36 patients (51%) were complete responders, 30 were partial responders (34%), and 13 were non-responders (15%). At 1 year from the second SICUS, no patients with a complete response, based on ultrasonography, underwent surgery, in comparison to partial responders (P = .0003) or non-responders (P = .001). Complete responders used smaller amounts of corticosteroids than partial responders (P = .0001) or non-responders (P < .0001). Complete responders required fewer hospitalizations than non-responders (P = .001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of long-term follow up data demonstrated a lower cumulative probability of need for surgery, hospitalization, and need for steroids among SICUS-categorized complete responders (P < .0001, P = .003 and P = .0001 respectively) than SICUS-categorized non-responders.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CD, response to anti-TNF agents, determined by SICUS, is associated with better long-term outcomes than partial or no response. Ultrasonographic assessment therefore provides a relatively non-invasive method for monitoring response to treatment in patients with CD.

Dallas Steatosis Index Identifies Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Tools have been developed to determine risk for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) based on imaging, which does not always detect early-grade hepatic steatosis. We aimed to develop a tool to identify patients with NAFLD using ¹H MR spectroscopy (MRS).

METHODS

We collected data from the Dallas Heart Study-a multiethnic, population-based, probability study of adults (18-65 y) that comprised an in-home medical survey; collection of fasting blood samples; MRS images to measure cardiac mass/function, abdominal subcutaneous/visceral adiposity; and quantification of hepatic triglyceride concentration, from 2000 through 2009. NAFLD were defined as 5.5% or more liver fat and we excluded patients with more than moderate alcohol use; 737 patients were included in the final analysis. We performed binary multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop a tool to identify patients with NAFLD and evaluate interactions among variables. We performed an internal validation analysis using 10-fold cross validation.

RESULTS

We developed the Dallas Steatosis Index (DSI) to identify patients with NAFLD based on level of alanine aminotransferase, body mass index, age, sex, levels of triglycerides and glucose, diabetes, hypertension, and ethnicity. The DSI discriminated between patients with vs without NAFLD with a C-statistic of 0.824. The DSI outperformed 4 risk analysis tools, based on net reclassification improvement and decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed an index, called the DSI, which accurately identifies patients with NAFLD based on MRS data. The DSI requires external validation, but might be used in development NAFLD screening programs, in monitoring progression of hepatic steatosis, and in epidemiology studies.

A MicroRNA Signature Identifies Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Patients at Risk for Lymph Node Metastases

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs) frequently metastasize to the lymph nodes; strategies are needed to identify patients at highest risk for lymph node metastases. We performed genome-wide expression profile analyses of PDAC specimens, collected during surgery or endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-need aspiration (EUS-FNA), to identify a microRNA (miRNA) signature associated with metastasis to lymph nodes.

METHODS

For biomarker discovery, we analyzed miRNA expression profiles of primary pancreatic tumors from 3 public data sets (The Cancer Genome Atlas, GSE24279, and GSE32688). We then analyzed 157 PDAC specimens (83 from patients with lymph node metastases and 74 without) from Japan, collected from 2001 through 2017, for the training cohort and 107 PDAC specimens (63 from patients with lymph node metastases and 44 without) from a different medical center in Japan, from 2002 through 2016, for the validation cohort. We also analyzed samples collected by EUS-FNA before surgery from 47 patients (22 patients with lymph node metastases and 25 without; 17 for the training cohort and 30 from the validation cohort) and 62 specimens before any treatment from patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (9 patients with lymph node metastasis and 53 without) for additional validation. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the statistical differences in miRNA expression between patients with vs without metastases.

RESULTS

We identified an miRNA expression pattern associated with diagnosis of PDAC metastasis to lymph nodes. Using logistic regression analysis, we optimized and trained a 6-miRNA risk prediction model for the training cohort; this model discriminated patients with vs without lymph node metastases with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77-0.89). In the validation cohort, the model identified patients with vs without lymph node metastases with an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64-0.81). In EUS-FNA biopsy samples, the model identified patients with vs without lymph node metastases with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.63-0.89). The miRNA expression pattern was an independent predictor of PDAC metastasis to lymph nodes in the validation cohort (odds ratio, 17.05; 95% CI, 2.43-119.57) and in the EUS-FNA cohort (95% CI, 0.65-0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

Using data and tumor samples from 3 independent cohorts, we identified an miRNA signature that identifies patients at risk for PDAC metastasis to lymph nodes. The signature has similar levels of accuracy in the analysis of resected tumor specimens and EUS-FNA biopsy specimens. This model might be used to select treatment and management strategies for patients with PDAC.

Renal Trajectory Patterns Are Associated With Postdischarge Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis and Acute Kidney Injury

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about long-term outcomes of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with cirrhosis. Outcomes can vary with stage of AKI, chronic kidney disease, and trajectory of renal function.

METHODS

We collected data from the Department of Veterans Affairs and identified 6917 patients with cirrhosis who developed AKI during hospitalization at any of its 127 hospitals, from 2004 through 2014. We used latent class analysis of serial creatinine measurements during the index hospitalization to determine trajectories of renal function.

RESULTS

Overall, 32% of patients died within 90 days of discharge from the hospital and 48% of patients died within 1 year. We identified 5 distinct in-hospital renal trajectories: mild AKI with full improvement (24.8% of patients died 90 within days), severe AKI with rapid improvement (24.7% of patients died within 90 days), moderate AKI with partial improvement (33.7% of patients died within 90 days), moderate to severe AKI with partial improvement (42.0% of patients died within 90 days), and severe AKI with minimal improvement (48.0% of patients died within 90 days). Trajectories were associated significantly with mortality within 90 days and 1 year of mortality. Patients with severe AKI with minimal improvement had the highest risk of death within 90 days (adjusted odds ratio, 3.08; 95% CI, 2.54-3.72) and within 1 year (adjusted odds ratio, 2.71; 95% CI, 2.25-3.27) compared with patients with mild AKI with full improvement. The highest 90-day postdischarge mortality (65.2%) was observed in patients with normal or near-normal prehospitalization renal function who developed severe AKI with minimal improvement during hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of almost 7000 veterans with cirrhosis who were hospitalized for AKI, we found the pattern of renal trajectory to be associated with mortality after discharge. Renal trajectory patterns can be used to identify subgroups of patients with cirrhosis and AKI who should receive intensive postdischarge management.

Prognostic Factors for Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Daegu, Korea

BACKGROUND

Since its first detection in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection has spread rapidly around the world. Although there have been several studies investigating prognostic factors for severe COVID-19, there have been no such studies in Korea.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective observational study of 110 patients with confirmed COVID-19 hospitalized at a tertiary hospital in Daegu, Korea. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and outcome data were collected and analyzed. Severe disease was defined as a composite outcome of acute respiratory distress syndrome, intensive care unit care, or death.

RESULTS

Diabetes mellitus (odds ratio [OR], 19.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90-193.42; P = 0.012), body temperature ≥ 37.8°C (OR, 10.91; 95% CI, 1.35-88.36; P = 0.025), peripheral oxygen saturation < 92% (OR, 33.31; 95% CI, 2.45-452.22; P = 0.008), and creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB) > 6.3 (OR, 56.84; 95% CI, 2.64-1,223.78, P = 0.010) at admission were associated with higher risk of severe COVID-19. The likelihood of development of severe COVID-19 increased with an increasing number of prognostic factors.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, we found that diabetes mellitus, body temperature ≥ 37.8°C, peripheral oxygen saturation < 92%, and CK-MB > 6.3 are independent predictors of severe disease in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Appropriate assessment of prognostic factors and close monitoring to provide the necessary interventions at the appropriate time in high-risk patients may reduce the case fatality rate of COVID-19.

Persistent Basal Cell Hyperplasia Is Associated With Clinical and Endoscopic Findings in Patients With Histologically Inactive Eosinophilic Esophagitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Although eosinophil count is the standard used to monitor disease activity in patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), there are often disparities between patient-reported symptoms and eosinophil counts. We examined the prevalence of epithelial alterations, namely basal cell hyperplasia (BCH) and spongiosis, among patients with inactive EoE (eosinophil counts below 15 following therapy) and aimed to determine whether maintenance of these changes in epithelial morphology are associated with persistent clinical findings.

METHODS

Esophageal biopsies of 243 patients (mean age, 16.9 years) undergoing routine endoscopy at the University of Pennsylvania were evaluated for epithelial BCH and spongiosis. Univariable analysis was used to calculate the association between epithelial changes and symptoms as well as endoscopic findings and peak eosinophil count. We validated our findings using data from a cohort of patients at the University of North Carolina.

RESULTS

The discovery and validation cohorts each included patients with inactive EoE, based on histologic factors, but ongoing BCH and spongiosis. Ongoing BCH, but not spongiosis, in patients with inactive EoE was associated with symptoms (odds ratio, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.03-4.42; P = .041) and endoscopic findings (odds ratio, 7.10; 95% CI, 3.12-16.18; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with EoE, the presence of BCH might indicate ongoing disease activity, independent of eosinophil count. This might account for the persistent symptoms in patients who are considered to be in remission based on histologic factors.

Changes in Liver Stiffness, Measured by Magnetic Resonance Elastography, Associated With Hepatic Decompensation in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Single measurements of liver stiffness (LS) by magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) have been associated with outcomes of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), but the significance of changes in LS over time are unclear. We investigated associations between changes in LS measurement and progression of PSC.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review of 204 patients with patients who underwent 2 MREs at a single center between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2018. We collected laboratory data and information on revised Mayo PSC risk and model for end-stage liver disease scores, the PSC risk estimate tool, and levels of aspartate transferase at the time of each MRE. The ΔLS/time was determined by the change in LS between the second MRE compared to the first MRE divided by the time between examinations. The primary endpoint was development of hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage or hepatic encephalopathy).

RESULTS

The median LS measurement was 2.72 kPa (interquartile range, 2.32-3.44 kPa) and the overall change in LS was 0.05 kPa/y. However, ΔLS/y was 10-fold higher in patients anticipated to have cirrhosis (0.31 kPa/y) compared to patients with no fibrosis (0.03 kPa/y). The median LS increased over time in patients who ultimately developed hepatic decompensation (0.60 kPa/y; interquartile range, 0.21-1.26 kPa/y) vs but remained static in patients who did not (reduction of 0.04/y; interquartile range, reductions of 0.26 to 0.17 kPa/y) (P < .001). The ΔLS/y value associated with the highest risk of hepatic decompensation was Δ0.34 kPa/y (hazard ratio [HR], 13.29; 95% CI, 0.23-33.78). After we adjusted for baseline LS and other risk factors, including serum level of alkaline phosphatase and the Mayo PSC risk score, ΔLS/y continued to be associated with hepatic decompensation. The optimal single LS cut-off associated with the hepatic decompensation was 4.32 kPa (HR, 60.41; 95% CI, 17.85-204.47). A combination of both cut-off values was associated with risk of hepatic decompensation (concordance score, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.98) CONCLUSIONS: A single LS measurement and changes in LS over time are independently associated with hepatic decompensation in patients with PSC. However, changes in LS occur slowly in patients without advanced fibrosis or hepatic decompensation.

Rapid Response to Treatment of Autoimmune Hepatitis Associated With Remission at 6 and 12 Months

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Changes in serum levels of transaminases immediately after initiation of treatment for autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) might be associated with biochemical markers of remission and liver-related events. We assessed the outcomes of patients with vs without rapid response to treatment of AIH in a large international cohort.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study, collecting data from 2 independent cohorts of adults with AIH from 12 centers in 7 countries in Europe. We collected information on patient demographics; serologic, histologic, and biochemical analyses; and treatment. We used a receiver operating characteristic curve and Youden index to calculate the optimal percentage decrease in level of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) after 8 weeks of treatment that associated with normalization of transaminase levels after 26 weeks of treatment with predniso(lo)ne (primary outcome) in the first (discovery) cohort (n = 370). We evaluated the results in the second (validation) cohort (n = 370). Secondary outcomes were liver-related death or transplantation. We performed univariate and multivariable logistic and Cox regression with correction for confounders.

RESULTS

A significant decrease in level of AST after 8 weeks of treatment was significantly associated with normalization of transaminase levels at 26 and 52 weeks (P < .001); a decrease of more than 80% in level of AST was associated with optimal normalization. In both cohorts, rapid responders (≥80% decrease in level of AST after 8 weeks) were more likely to achieve normalization of transaminases at 26 and 52 weeks when compared to non-rapid responders. Rapid responders in the discovery cohort had lower risk of liver-related death or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio 0.18; 95% CI 0.05-0.63; P = .007), although this was not confirmed in the validation cohort. Results from measurement of alanine aminotransferase did not differ significantly from those of AST for the primary outcome. Slow responders (without normalization of transaminases after 1 year) had the highest risk of liver transplantation or liver-related death.

CONCLUSIONS

In a retrospective study of patients with AIH, we found that a rapid response to treatment, based on level of AST after 8 weeks, associates with normalization of transaminase levels in the following year. Patients with a rapid response also have a lower risk of liver-related death or transplantation than patients without this rapid response.

Comprehensive Analysis of Clinicopathologic Factors Predictive of an Unfavorable Prognosis in Patients With Acinic Cell Carcinoma of the Parotid Gland

Objectives.

In subset of patients, acinic cell carcinoma (AcCC) exhibits aggressive features such as recurrence, distant metastasis, and mortality. This study aimed to investigate clinicopathologic factors influencing patients’ prognosis and to identify adverse features predictive of an unfavorable prognosis.

Methods.

Between January 2000 and December 2016, 59 patients with AcCC were enrolled in this study.

Results.

The patients’ 5-year overall survival rate was 93.3%, and their 5-year recurrence-free survival rate was 80.5%. During the study period, recurrence occurred in 10 patients. The mean time to recurrence after surgery was 26 months (range, 5–60 months). During the study period, three patients died from the disease. Univariate analysis showed that sex, surgical extent, extranodal extension, T classification, and TNM stage were significantly associated with disease recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that, among the clinicopathologic factors included in the analysis, only TNM stage displayed a statistically significant correlation with disease recurrence.

Conclusion.

Surgical treatment alone yielded good results for AcCC, and additional treatment did not affect the recurrence-free survival rate or the overall survival rate, even when the resection margin was less than 1 mm. Other pathologic factors did not show prognostic significance for disease recurrence or death.

Peritoneal Level of CD206 Associates With Mortality and an Inflammatory Macrophage Phenotype in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Peritoneal macrophages (PMs) regulate inflammation and control bacterial infections in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. We aimed to characterize PMs and associate their activation with outcomes of patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP).

METHODS

We isolated PMs from ascites samples of 66 patients with decompensated cirrhosis (19 with SBP) and analyzed them by flow cytometry, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, functional analysis, and RNA microarrays. We used ascites samples of a separate cohort of 111 patients with decompensated cirrhosis (67 with SBP) and quantified the soluble form of the mannose receptor (CD206) and tumor necrosis factor by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (test cohort). We performed logistic regression analysis to identify factors associated with 90-day mortality. We validated our findings using data from 71 patients with cirrhosis and SBP. Data from 14 patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis for end-stage renal disease but without cirrhosis were included as controls.

RESULTS

We used surface levels of CD206 to identify subsets of large PMs (LPM) and small PMs (SPM), which differed in granularity and maturation markers, in ascites samples from patients with cirrhosis. LPMs vs SPMs from patients with cirrhosis had different transcriptomes; we identified more than 4000 genes that were differentially regulated in LPMs vs SPMs, including those that regulate the cycle, metabolism, self-renewal, and immune cell signaling. LPMs had an inflammatory phenotype, were less susceptible to tolerance induction, and released more tumor necrosis factor than SPMs. LPMs from patients with cirrhosis produced more inflammatory cytokines than LPMs from controls. Activation of PMs by Toll-like receptor agonists and live bacteria altered levels of CD206 on the surface of LPMs and release of soluble CD206. Analysis of serial ascites fluid from patients with SBP revealed loss of LPMs in the early phase of SBP, but levels increased after treatment. In the test and validation cohorts, patients with SBP and higher concentrations of soluble CD206 in ascites fluid (>0.53 mg/L) were less likely to survive for 90 days than those with lower levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Surface level of CD206 can be used to identify mature, resident, inflammatory PMs in patients with cirrhosis. Soluble CD206 is released from activated LPMs and increased concentrations in patients with cirrhosis and SBP indicate reduced odds of surviving for 90 days.

Significance of Conducting 2 Types of Fecal Tests in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We compared the diagnostic accuracy of the fecal calprotectin (FCP) test vs the fecal immunochemical blood test (FIT) in determining the endoscopic severity and predicting outcomes of patients with ulcerative colitis (UC).

METHODS

We performed a nationwide study of 879 patients with UC, enrolled at medical centers across Japan, from March 2015 to March 2017. We collected data on fecal biomarkers, endoscopic severities, and other clinical indices from Cohort 1 (n = 427) and assessed the diagnostic accuracy of FCP measurement and FIT results in determining clinical severity, based on Mayo score, and endoscopic remission, based on Mayo endoscopic sub-score (MES) or UC endoscopic index of severity. We also followed 452 patients in clinical remission from UC (Cohort 2) for 12 months and evaluated the associations of FCP levels and FIT results with clinical recurrence.

RESULTS

The levels of FCP and FIT each correlated with the MES and UC endoscopic index of severity. There were no significant differences in the areas under the curve of FCP vs FIT in distinguishing patients with MES≤1 from those with MES≥2 (P = .394) or in distinguishing patients with MES=0 from those with MES≥1 (P = .178). Among 405 patients in clinical remission at baseline, 38 (9.4%) had UC recurrences within 3 months and 90 (22.2%) had recurrences within 12 months. FCP≥146 mg/kg (hazard ratio [HR], 4.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.80-8.33) and FIT≥77 ng/mL (HR, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.76-4.83) were independently associated with clinical recurrence within 12 months. UC recurred within 12 months in 69% of patients with levels of FCP≥146 mg/kg and FIT ≥77 ng/mL; this value was significantly higher than the rate of recurrence in patients with levels of FCP≥146 mg/kg and FIT <77 ng/mL (31.5%, P < .001) or patients with levels of FCP<146 mg/kg and FIT ≥77 ng/mL (30.0%, P < .001).

CONCLUSION

In a nationwide study of patients with UC in Japan, we found that the level of FCP and FIT could each identify patients with endoscopic markers of disease severity (MES≥2). The combination of FCP and FIT results can identify patients in remission who are at risk for disease recurrence. Clinical Trials Registry no: UMIN000017650 (http://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/).

Association Between PNPLA3 rs738409 C>G Variant and Liver-Related Outcomes in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have an increased risk for liver-related complications, such as decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and death; the severity of liver fibrosis and metabolic comorbidities are the main risk factors. A single nucleotide polymorphism in patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing-3 (PNPLA3) gene is associated with higher prevalence of liver damage and HCC, but there are no data from prospective studies of outcomes of patients with this polymorphism. We investigated whether the common rs738409 variant in PNPLA3 gene associates with the occurrence of liver-related events and death in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

We followed 471 consecutive individuals at a hospital in Italy with a diagnosis of NAFLD based on histologic factors or a diagnosis of compensated NAFLD-related cirrhosis based on clinical factors for at least 6 months, from March 2004 through December 2018. We collected data on the occurrence of hepatic and extrahepatic outcomes, including decompensation and HCC, cardiovascular events and extrahepatic cancers, and overall and liver-related death. We detected the rs738409 G>C polymorphism in DNA from patient blood samples using the TaqMan assay.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of 64.6 months (range 6.1-175 months) 26 cases of decompensation, 13 HCCs, and 16 deaths (12 liver-related) were recorded. All liver-related events, including liver-related death, occurred in patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis. The prevalence of PNPLA3 rs738409 GG, GT, and TT genotypes was 31.8%, 45.6%, and 22.6%, respectively. After adjusting for clinical, metabolic, and histologic risk factors, PNPLA3 C>G variant was associated with a higher risk of decompensation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.10; 95% CI, 1.03-4.29; P = .04), HCC (HR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.01-7.26; P = .04), and liver-related death (HR, 3.64; 95% CI, 1.18-11.2; P = .02) by multivariate Cox regression analysis. In the subgroup of 162 patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis, we confirmed the independent association between the PNPLA3 variant and decompensation (HR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.01-3.97; P = .04), HCC (HR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.02-7.13; P = .04), and liver-related death (HR, 3.64, 95% CI, 1.18-11.2; P = .02). We found no association between PNPLA3 genotype and cardiovascular events, extrahepatic cancers, or overall mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with NAFLD carrying PNPLA3 rs738409 G>C variant are at higher risk of liver-related events and death.