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Brennan A, Buckley C, Vu TM, Probst C, Nielsen A, Bai H, Broomhead T, Greenfield T, Kerr W, Meier PS, Rehm J, Shuper P, Strong M, Purshouse RC. Introducing CASCADEPOP: an open-source sociodemographic simulation platform for us health policy appraisal. Int J Microsimul 2020; 13:21-60. [PMID: 33884027 DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Largescale individual-level and agent-based models are gaining importance in health policy appraisal and evaluation. Such models require the accurate depiction of the jurisdiction's population over extended time periods to enable modeling of the development of non-communicable diseases under consideration of historical, sociodemographic developments. We developed CASCADEPOP to provide a readily available sociodemographic micro-synthesis and microsimulation platform for US populations. The micro-synthesis method used iterative proportional fitting to integrate data from the US Census, the American Community Survey, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Multiple Cause of Death Files, and several national surveys to produce a synthetic population aged 12 to 80 years on 01/01/1980 for five states (California, Minnesota, New York, Tennessee, and Texas) and the US. Characteristics include individuals' age, sex, race/ethnicity, marital/employment/parental status, education, income and patterns of alcohol use as an exemplar health behavior. The microsimulation simulates individuals' sociodemographic life trajectories over 35 years to 31/12/2015 accounting for population developments including births, deaths, and migration. Results comparing the 1980 micro-synthesis against observed data shows a successful depiction of state and US population characteristics and of drinking. Comparing the microsimulation over 30 years with Census data also showed the successful simulation of sociodemographic developments. The CASCADEPOP platform enables modelling of health behaviors across individuals' life courses and at a population level. As it contains a large number of relevant sociodemographic characteristics it can be further developed by researchers to build US agent-based models and microsimulations to examine health behaviors, interventions, and policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alan Brennan
- School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield (ScHARR), 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK
| | - Charlotte Buckley
- Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD, UK
| | - Tuong Manh Vu
- School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield (ScHARR), 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK
| | - Charlotte Probst
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Russell Street, Toronto, On M5S 2S1, Canada
| | - Alexandra Nielsen
- Alcohol Research Group (ARG), Public Health Institute, 6001 Shellmound St, Emeryville, CA, 94608, USA
| | - Hao Bai
- Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD, UK
| | - Thomas Broomhead
- School of Clinical Dentistry, University of Sheffield, 19 Claremont Crescent, Sheffield, S10 2TA, UK
| | - Thomas Greenfield
- Alcohol Research Group (ARG), Public Health Institute, 6001 Shellmound St, Emeryville, CA, 94608, USA
| | - William Kerr
- Alcohol Research Group (ARG), Public Health Institute, 6001 Shellmound St, Emeryville, CA, 94608, USA
| | - Petra S Meier
- School of Health and Related Research; University of Sheffield (ScHARR), 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK
| | - JüRgen Rehm
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Russell Street, Toronto, ON M5S 2S1, Canada
| | - Paul Shuper
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Russell Street, Toronto, ON M5S 2S1, Canada
| | - Mark Strong
- School of Health and Related Research; University of Sheffield (ScHARR), 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK
| | - Robin C Purshouse
- Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield, S1 3JD, UK
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Sibley C, Yazici Y, Tascilar K, Khan N, Bata Y, Yazici H, Goldbach-Mansky R, Hatemi G. Behçet syndrome manifestations and activity in the United States versus Turkey -- a cross-sectional cohort comparison. J Rheumatol 2014; 41:1379-84. [PMID: 24931953 DOI: 10.3899/jrheum.131227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To compare clinical manifestations and activity of Behçet syndrome (BS) in the United States versus Turkey using validated outcome measures. METHODS Consecutive patients with BS from the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), New York University, and the University of Istanbul were evaluated. Disease activity was measured using the Behçet's Syndrome Activity Scale (BSAS) and the Behçet's Disease Current Activity Form (BDCAF) with quality of life measured by the Behçet Disease Quality of Life (BDQOL) form. One-way ANOVA, t-tests, and multivariate regression analyses were performed. RESULTS Mean age did not differ between sites; however, more women were seen in the United States versus in Turkey (p < 0.001), and disease duration was longer in the United States (p = 0.02). Organ manifestations were similar for oral and genital ulcers, skin disease, arthralgia, eye disease, and thrombosis. However, more gastrointestinal (p < 0.001) and neurologic disease (p = 0.003) was seen in the United States. BSAS and BDCAF scores were worse in the United States compared to Turkey (p = 0.013 and < 0.001, respectively). Worse mean BDQOL scores were observed at the NIH compared to Istanbul (not significant). Multivariable regression models showed worse scores in ethnically atypical patients for BSAS and BDCAF (p = 0.04 and p = 0.001), American patients for BDCAF (p = 0.01), older age for BDCAF (p = 0.005), and women for BDQOL (p = 0.01). CONCLUSION Demographic and clinical manifestations of BS differ between sites with higher disease activity in the United States compared to Turkey. Referral patterns, age, sex, ethnicity, and country of origin may be important in these differences. These observations raise the question of whether pathogenic mechanisms differ in Turkish and American patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cailin Sibley
- From the Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon; Department of Rheumatology, New York University, New York, New York, USA; Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Turkey.C. Sibley, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; and Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University; Y. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; K. Tascilar, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; N. Khan, BS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; Y. Bata, BA, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; H. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; R. Goldbach-Mansky, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; G. Hatemi, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa.
| | - Yusuf Yazici
- From the Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon; Department of Rheumatology, New York University, New York, New York, USA; Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Turkey.C. Sibley, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; and Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University; Y. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; K. Tascilar, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; N. Khan, BS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; Y. Bata, BA, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; H. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; R. Goldbach-Mansky, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; G. Hatemi, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa
| | - Koray Tascilar
- From the Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon; Department of Rheumatology, New York University, New York, New York, USA; Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Turkey.C. Sibley, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; and Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University; Y. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; K. Tascilar, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; N. Khan, BS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; Y. Bata, BA, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; H. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; R. Goldbach-Mansky, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; G. Hatemi, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa
| | - Nafiz Khan
- From the Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon; Department of Rheumatology, New York University, New York, New York, USA; Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Turkey.C. Sibley, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; and Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University; Y. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; K. Tascilar, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; N. Khan, BS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; Y. Bata, BA, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; H. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; R. Goldbach-Mansky, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; G. Hatemi, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa
| | - Yasmin Bata
- From the Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon; Department of Rheumatology, New York University, New York, New York, USA; Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Turkey.C. Sibley, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; and Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University; Y. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; K. Tascilar, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; N. Khan, BS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; Y. Bata, BA, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; H. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; R. Goldbach-Mansky, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; G. Hatemi, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa
| | - Hasan Yazici
- From the Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon; Department of Rheumatology, New York University, New York, New York, USA; Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Turkey.C. Sibley, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; and Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University; Y. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; K. Tascilar, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; N. Khan, BS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; Y. Bata, BA, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; H. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; R. Goldbach-Mansky, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; G. Hatemi, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa
| | - Raphaela Goldbach-Mansky
- From the Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon; Department of Rheumatology, New York University, New York, New York, USA; Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Turkey.C. Sibley, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; and Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University; Y. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; K. Tascilar, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; N. Khan, BS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; Y. Bata, BA, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; H. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; R. Goldbach-Mansky, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; G. Hatemi, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa
| | - Gulen Hatemi
- From the Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland; Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon; Department of Rheumatology, New York University, New York, New York, USA; Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa, Istanbul, Turkey.C. Sibley, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; and Department of Rheumatology, Oregon Health and Science University; Y. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; K. Tascilar, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; N. Khan, BS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; Y. Bata, BA, Department of Rheumatology, New York University; H. Yazici, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa; R. Goldbach-Mansky, MD, MHS, Translational Autoinflammatory Disease Section, NIAMS at the NIH; G. Hatemi, MD, Department of Rheumatology, University of Istanbul Cerrahpasa
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