Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of the Vegetation Cover from the Bijagual Massif, Boyacá, Colombia, during the 1986-2021 Period

Landscape changes based on spectral responses allow showing plant cover changes through diversity, composition, and ecological connectivity. The spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics of the Bijagual Massif from 1986 to 2021 were analyzed as a measure of ecological integrity, conservation, and territory. The covers identified were high open forest (Hof), dense grassland of non-wooded mainland (Dgnm), a mosaic of pastures and crops (Mpc), lagoons (Lag), and bare and degraded lands (Bdl). The Bijagual Massif has 8574.1 ha. In 1986, Dgnm occupied 42.6% of the total area, followed by Mpc (32.8%) and Hof (24.5%); by 2000, Mpc and Hof increased (43.7 and 28.1%, respectively), while Dgnm decreased (28%); by 2021, Dgnm was restricted to the northeastern zone and continued to decrease (25.2%), Mpc occupied 52.9%, Hof 21.7% and Bdl 0.1%. Of the three fractions of the connectivity probability index, only dPCintra and dPCflux contribute to ecological connectivity. Hof and Dgnm show patches with biota habitat quality and availability. Between 1986 and 2021, Dgnm lost 1489 ha (41%) and Hof 239.5 ha (11%). Mpc replaced various covers (1722.2 ha; 38%) in 2021. Bijagual has a valuable biodiversity potential limited by Mpc. Territorial planning and sustainable agroecological and ecotourism proposals are required due to the context of the ecosystems.

Impacts of Deforestation on Childhood Malaria Depend on Wealth and Vector Biology

Ecosystem change can profoundly affect human well-being and health, including through changes in exposure to vector-borne diseases. Deforestation has increased human exposure to mosquito vectors and malaria risk in Africa, but there is little understanding of how socioeconomic and ecological factors influence the relationship between deforestation and malaria risk. We examined these interrelationships in six sub-Saharan African countries using demographic and health survey data linked to remotely sensed environmental variables for 11,746 children under 5 years old. We found that the relationship between deforestation and malaria prevalence varies by wealth levels. Deforestation is associated with increased malaria prevalence in the poorest households, but there was not significantly increased malaria prevalence in the richest households, suggesting that deforestation has disproportionate negative health impacts on the poor. In poorer households, malaria prevalence was 27%-33% larger for one standard deviation increase in deforestation across urban and rural populations. Deforestation is also associated with increased malaria prevalence in regions where Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus are dominant vectors, but not in areas of Anopheles arabiensis. These findings indicate that deforestation is an important driver of malaria risk among the world's most vulnerable children, and its impact depends critically on often-overlooked social and biological factors. An in-depth understanding of the links between ecosystems and human health is crucial in designing conservation policies that benefit people and the environment.

Potential for positive biodiversity outcomes under diet-driven land use change in Great Britain

Background

A shift toward human diets that include more fruit and vegetables, and less meat is a potential pathway to improve public health and reduce food system-related greenhouse gas emissions. Associated changes in land use could include conversion of grazing land into horticulture, which makes more efficient use of land per unit of dietary energy and frees-up land for other uses.

Methods

Here we use Great Britain as a case study to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity from converting grazing land to a mixture of horticulture and natural land covers by fitting species distribution models for over 800 species, including pollinating insects and species of conservation priority.

Results

Across several land use scenarios that consider the current ratio of domestic fruit and vegetable production to imports, our statistical models suggest a potential for gains to biodiversity, including a tendency for more species to gain habitable area than to lose habitable area. Moreover, the models suggest that climate change impacts on biodiversity could be mitigated to a degree by land use changes associated with dietary shifts.

Conclusions

Our analysis demonstrates that options exist for changing agricultural land uses in a way that can generate win-win-win outcomes for biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and public health.

Reforestation of Cunninghamia lanceolata changes the relative abundances of important prokaryotic families in soil

Over the past decades, many forests have been converted to monoculture plantations, which might affect the soil microbial communities that are responsible for governing the soil biogeochemical processes. Understanding how reforestation efforts alter soil prokaryotic microbial communities will therefore inform forest management. In this study, the prokaryotic communities were comparatively investigated in a secondary Chinese fir forest (original) and a reforested Chinese fir plantation (reforested from a secondary Chinese fir forest) in Southern China. The results showed that reforestation changed the structure of the prokaryotic community: the relative abundances of important prokaryotic families in soil. This might be caused by the altered soil pH and organic matter content after reforestation. Soil profile layer depth was an important factor as the upper layers had a higher diversity of prokaryotes than the lower ones (p < 0.05). The composition of the prokaryotic community presented a seasonality characteristic. In addition, the results showed that the dominant phylum was Acidobacteria (58.86%) with Koribacteraceae (15.38%) as the dominant family in the secondary Chinese fir forest and the reforested plantation. Furthermore, soil organic matter, total N, hydrolyzable N, and NH 4 + - N were positively correlated with prokaryotic diversity (p < 0.05). Also, organic matter and NO 3 - - N were positively correlated to prokaryotic abundance (p < 0.05). This study demonstrated that re-forest transformation altered soil properties, which lead to the changes in microbial composition. The changes in microbial community might in turn influence biogeochemical processes and the environmental variables. The study could contribute to forest management and policy-making.

Deforestation as an Anthropogenic Driver of Mercury Pollution

Deforestation reduces the capacity of the terrestrial biosphere to take up toxic pollutant mercury (Hg) and enhances the release of secondary Hg from soils. The consequences of deforestation for Hg cycling are not currently considered by anthropogenic emission inventories or specifically addressed under the global Minamata Convention on Mercury. Using global Hg modeling constrained by field observations, we estimate that net Hg fluxes to the atmosphere due to deforestation are 217 Mg year-1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 134-1650 Mg year-1) for 2015, approximately 10% of global primary anthropogenic emissions. If deforestation of the Amazon rainforest continues at business-as-usual rates, net Hg emissions from the region will increase by 153 Mg year-1 by 2050 (CI: 97-418 Mg year-1), enhancing the transport and subsequent deposition of Hg to aquatic ecosystems. Substantial Hg emissions reductions are found for two potential cases of land use policies: conservation of the Amazon rainforest (92 Mg year-1, 95% CI: 59-234 Mg year-1) and global reforestation (98 Mg year-1, 95% CI: 64-449 Mg year-1). We conclude that deforestation-related emissions should be incorporated as an anthropogenic source in Hg inventories and that land use policy could be leveraged to address global Hg pollution.

[Spatio-temporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation of Carbon Storage in Karst Regions of Central Guizhou Province：Taking Puding County as An Example]

Regional land use change is the main cause for the change in karst carbon storage. It is important to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution and future spatial distribution trends of carbon storage in typical counties in central Guizhou's karst region， such as Puding County， to improve regional carbon storage， optimize land ecological security patterns， and promote low-carbon sustainable urban development. The PLUS-InVEST model was coupled， based on the interpreted land use data and future land prediction， the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and carbon storage in Puding County from 1973 to 2020 were inverted， and the spatial pattern evolution of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in 2060 were simulated and predicted. The results showed： ① from 1973 to 2020， the overall carbon storage in Puding County increased by 6.61×105 t， showing an upward trend. The spatial distribution showed a significant increase in the northeastern and southwestern parts of Puding County and a significant decrease in the south-central parts. The change was due to the increase in carbon storage in dryland to shrubland and forest land and the decrease in carbon storage in areas where paddy fields are converted to construction land. ② The land use change in Puding County in the historical period was mainly reflected in the continuous expansion of construction land and the increased fluctuation of the proportion of forest land and shrub forest land， and the change in land use in different scenarios projected in 2060 retained the change characteristics of the historical period. ③ In 2060， the carbon storage in Puding County under the scenarios of natural evolution， ecological protection， and economic development increased by 2.93×105， 5.40×105， and 1.11×105 t， respectively， compared with that in 2020. Of these， the increase in ecological protection scenarios was the most significant， with the transfer of dryland to shrubland being the main reason for the increase in regional carbon sequestration capacity. These results can serve as a scientific reference for land use management decisions and the formulation of emission reduction and sink increase policies in Puding County. The future land use planning of karst areas should be guided by the goal of "carbon neutrality" in 2060， take appropriate ecological protection measures， strictly control the rapid expansion of construction land to paddy fields， optimize the land use structure， and effectively improve the level of regional carbon storage.

Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human-elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia

Human-wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability-three key drivers of human-elephant conflict-will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions "regional rivalry" SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions "sustainability" SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.

Climate regulation processes are linked to the functional composition of plant communities in European forests, shrublands, and grasslands

Terrestrial ecosystems affect climate by reflecting solar irradiation, evaporative cooling, and carbon sequestration. Yet very little is known about how plant traits affect climate regulation processes (CRPs) in different habitat types. Here, we used linear and random forest models to relate the community-weighted mean and variance values of 19 plant traits (summarized into eight trait axes) to the climate-adjusted proportion of reflected solar irradiation, evapotranspiration, and net primary productivity across 36,630 grid cells at the European extent, classified into 10 types of forest, shrubland, and grassland habitats. We found that these trait axes were more tightly linked to log evapotranspiration (with an average of 6.2% explained variation) and the proportion of reflected solar irradiation (6.1%) than to net primary productivity (4.9%). The highest variation in CRPs was explained in forest and temperate shrubland habitats. Yet, the strength and direction of these relationships were strongly habitat-dependent. We conclude that any spatial upscaling of the effects of plant communities on CRPs must consider the relative contribution of different habitat types.

Assessment of land use change of ecological green wedge and cooling island effect: A case study of Wuhan, China

The construction of urban ecological green wedges, which can mitigate the heat island effect through cooling and ventilation effects, is an important way to enhance the adaptation of cities to climate change. Dynamic monitoring and periodic assessment of both the conservation status and cooling effect of ecological green wedges is a key to ensure the heat mitigation benefits. Based on multi-source remote sensing data, we systematically analyzed the land use changes of six ecological green wedges in Wuhan in 2013 and 2020 using the methods of Markov transfer matrix, land use dynamics, and comprehensive index of land use degree, and evaluated the changes in surface temperature of the ecological green wedges and their cooling island effect. Results showed that the ecological green wedges in Wuhan generally had a large amount of construction land encroaching on ecological land from 2013 to 2020, with the water decreased the most. With the continuous deterioration of ecological green wedges, their land surface temperatures showed rising trends, together with significant weakening trends in cooling island effects. Among all the six wedges, the Dadonghu, Tangxun, and Wuhu exhibited relatively better ecological conservation, slighter land use change and lower overall development degree. Qinglinghu and Houguanhu demonstrated average levels of conservation. Fuhe experienced the most severe change under the significant influence of the westward policy of Wuhan City, with the proportion of water decreasing by 7.1%, warming up by 3.00 ℃, and the largest reduction in cooling distance for the cooling island effect, amounting to about 210 m. The results provided scientific evidence for the urban heat island mitigation-oriented planning and management of ecological green wedges for Wuhan City.

[Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Kunming City Based on InVEST and CA-Markov Model]

Land use/cover change is an important driving factor for carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems and affects the carbon cycle of the whole ecosystem. Taking Kunming City as a case study, based on the modified carbon density coefficient, this study analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of carbon storage changes in the terrestrial ecosystem under different land use scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and "three-line" constraints by coupling the carbon storage module of the InVEST model and CA-Markov model. The results showed that:① cultivated land, forest land, and grassland were the main types of land use in Kunming City, and land use transfer also occurred among the three types. ② From 2000 to 2020, the overall carbon storage in Kunming City was low in the south and high in the north, and the carbon storage decreased yearly with a cumulative loss of 5.27×106 t. The degradation of forest land and grassland was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage. ③ From 2020 to 2030, the carbon storage of the four scenarios should decrease, and the decline in carbon storage in the inertia development scenario was the most obvious, which was mainly caused by the rapid expansion of construction land. The cultivated land protection scenario effectively slowed down the reduction in carbon storage compared with the inertia development scenario. The ecological protection scenario could enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of the study area, with carbon storage reaching 262.49×106 t, but could not effectively control the reduction in cultivated land area. The scenario of preventing urban expansion effectively inhibited the disorderly expansion of construction land and indirectly prevented further reduction in carbon storage. Therefore, the cultivated land protection scenario, ecological protection scenario, and urban expansion prevention scenario can be considered comprehensively in the study area, which could not only increase the carbon sink space of the study area but also ensure food and ecological security.

Belowground bud banks and land use change: roles of vegetation and soil properties in mediating the composition of bud banks in different ecosystems

Introduction

Belowground bud banks play integral roles in vegetation regeneration and ecological succession of plant communities; however, human-caused changes in land use severely threaten their resilience and regrowth. Although vegetation attributes and soil properties mediate such anthropogenic effects, their influence on bud bank size and composition and its regulatory mechanisms under land use change have not been explored.

Methods

We conducted a field investigation to examine impacts of land use change on bud bank size and composition, vegetation attributes, and soil properties in wetlands (WL), farmlands (FL), and alpine meadow (AM) ecosystems in Zhejiang Province, China.

Results

Overall, 63 soil samples in close proximity to the vegetation quadrats were excavated using a shovel, and samples of the excavated soil were placed in plastic bags for onward laboratory soil analysis. The total bud density (1514.727 ± 296.666) and tiller bud density (1229.090 ± 279.002) in wetland ecosystems were significantly higher than in farmland and alpine meadow ecosystems [i.e., total (149.333 ± 21.490 and 573.647 ± 91.518) and tiller bud density (24.666 ± 8.504 and 204.235 ± 50.550), respectively]. While vegetation attributes critically affected bud banks in WL ecosystems, soil properties strongly influenced bud banks in farmland and alpine meadow ecosystems. In wetland ecosystems, total and tiller buds were predominantly dependent on soil properties, but vegetation density played a significant role in farmlands and alpine meadow ecosystems. Root sprouting and rhizome buds significantly correlated with total C in the top 0 - 10 cm layer of farmland and alpine meadow ecosystems, respectively, and depended mainly on soil properties.

Discussion

Our results demonstrate that land use change alters bud bank size and composition; however, such responses differed among bud types in wetland, farmland, and alpine meadow ecosystems.

Recent decline in tropical temperature sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate variability

A two-fold enhancement in the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) to tropical temperature interannual variability (Γ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ ) till early 2000s has been reported, which suggests a drought-induced shift in terrestrial carbon cycle responding temperature fluctuations, thereby accelerating global warming. However, using six decades long atmospheric CO2 observations, we show thatΓ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ has significantly declined in the last two decades, to the level during the 1960s. TheΓ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ decline begs the question of whether the sensitivity of ecosystem carbon cycle to temperature variations at local scale has largely decreased. With state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models, we further find that the recentΓ CGR T $$ {\varGamma}_{\mathrm{CGR}}^T $$ decline is barely attributed to ecosystem carbon cycle response to temperature fluctuations at local scale, which instead results from a decrease in spatial coherence in tropical temperature variability and land use change. Our results suggest that the recently reported loss of rainforest resilience has not shown marked influence on the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem carbon cycle. Nevertheless, the increasing extent of land use change as well as more frequent and intensive drought events are likely to modulate the responses of ecosystem carbon cycle to temperature variations in the future. Therefore, our study highlights the priority to continuously monitor the temperature sensitivity of CGR variability and improve Earth system model representation on land use change, in order to predict the carbon-climate feedback.

Soil organic carbon stocks in European croplands and grasslands: How much have we lost in the past decade?

The EU Soil Strategy 2030 aims to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural land to enhance soil health and support biodiversity as well as to offset greenhouse gas emissions through soil carbon sequestration. Therefore, the quantification of current SOC stocks and the spatial identification of the main drivers of SOC changes is paramount in the preparation of agricultural policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems in the EU. In this context, changes of SOC stocks (Δ SOCs) for the EU + UK between 2009 and 2018 were estimated by fitting a quantile generalized additive model (qGAM) on data obtained from the revisited points of the Land Use/Land Cover Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) performed in 2009, 2015 and 2018. The analysis of the partial effects derived from the fitted qGAM model shows that land use and land use change observed in the 2009, 2015 and 2018 LUCAS campaigns (i.e. continuous grassland [GGG] or cropland [CCC], conversion grassland to cropland (GGC or GCC) and vice versa [CGG or CCG]) was one of the main drivers of SOC changes. The CCC was the factor that contributed to the lowest negative change on Δ SOC with an estimated partial effect of -0.04 ± 0.01 g C kg-1  year-1 , while the GGG the highest positive change with an estimated partial effect of 0.49 ± 0.02 g C kg-1  year-1 . This confirms the C sequestration potential of converting cropland to grassland. However, it is important to consider that local soil and environmental conditions may either diminish or enhance the grassland's positive effect on soil C storage. In the EU + UK, the estimated current (2018) topsoil (0-20 cm) SOC stock in agricultural land below 1000 m a.s.l was 9.3 Gt, with a Δ SOC of -0.75% in the period 2009-2018. The highest estimated SOC losses were concentrated in central-northern countries, while marginal losses were observed in the southeast.

A cloudy forecast for species distribution models: Predictive uncertainties abound for California birds after a century of climate and land-use change

Correlative species distribution models are widely used to quantify past shifts in ranges or communities, and to predict future outcomes under ongoing global change. Practitioners confront a wide range of potentially plausible models for ecological dynamics, but most specific applications only consider a narrow set. Here, we clarify that certain model structures can embed restrictive assumptions about key sources of forecast uncertainty into an analysis. To evaluate forecast uncertainties and our ability to explain community change, we fit and compared 39 candidate multi- or joint species occupancy models to avian incidence data collected at 320 sites across California during the early 20th century and resurveyed a century later. We found massive (>20,000 LOOIC) differences in within-time information criterion across models. Poorer fitting models omitting multivariate random effects predicted less variation in species richness changes and smaller contemporary communities, with considerable variation in predicted spatial patterns in richness changes across models. The top models suggested avian environmental associations changed across time, contemporary avian occupancy was influenced by previous site-specific occupancy states, and that both latent site variables and species associations with these variables also varied over time. Collectively, our results recapitulate that simplified model assumptions not only impact predictive fit but may mask important sources of forecast uncertainty and mischaracterize the current state of system understanding when seeking to describe or project community responses to global change. We recommend that researchers seeking to make long-term forecasts prioritize characterizing forecast uncertainty over seeking to present a single best guess. To do so reliably, we urge practitioners to employ models capable of characterizing the key sources of forecast uncertainty, where predictors, parameters and random effects may vary over time or further interact with previous occurrence states.

Vulnerability of protected areas to future climate change, land use modification, and biological invasions in China

Anthropogenic climate change, land use modifications, and alien species invasions are major threats to global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are regarded as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, however, few studies have quantified the vulnerability of PAs to these global change factors together. Here, we overlay the risks of climate change, land use change, and alien vertebrate establishment within boundaries of a total of 1020 PAs with different administrative levels in China to quantify their vulnerabilities. Our results show that 56.6% of PAs will face at least one stress factor, and 21 PAs are threatened under the highest risk with three stressors simultaneously. PAs designed for forest conservation in Southwest and South China are most sensitive to the three global change factors. In addition, wildlife and wetland PAs are predicted to mainly experience climate change and high land use anthropogenetic modifications, and many wildlife PAs can also provide suitable habitats for alien vertebrate establishment. Our study highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation and management planning of Chinese PAs by considering different global change factors together.

Spatial-temporal changes of landscape and habitat quality in typical ecologically fragile areas of western China over the past 40 years: A case study of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

In this paper, we use the InVEST model and five periods of land use data from 1980 to 2020 to assess the habitat quality of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in Western China, which has characteristics of a typical fragile ecosystem. We further analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of habitat quality evolution and its relationship with land use and landscape pattern indices to explore the close relationship between regional habitat quality changes and human natural resource conservation and utilization. The research results show that the overall habitat quality of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region was stable and at a moderate level (0.57-0.60) during the 40 years from 1980 to 2020; Habitat patches (2020) with low (24.89%), high (22.45%) and very high (29.81%) quality occupy a larger proportion of the area, followed by very low (13.31%) and moderate levels (9.54%). Over the past 40 years, there have been 275 sample sites in Ningxia where habitat quality has deteriorated, 1593 sample sites where the habitat quality has remained stable, and 184 sample sites where the habitat quality has increased. From 1980 to 2020, the Mean Patch Area of landscape types in Ningxia decreased by 25.9 hm2. The Patch Density increased by 0.06 /hm2. The Largest Patch Index decreased by 15.69%. The Edge Density increased by 2.5 m/hm2. The Contagion Index decreased by 2.99%. The Area-Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension remained basically unchanged (0.01). The Landscape Shape Index showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, increasing by 13.94. The Area-Weighted Mean Shape Index has been reduced by 9.45. The Shannon Diversity Index and Shannon Evenness Index both show an increasing trend, but the amplitude is relatively small, with 0.09 and 0.04, respectively. There was a significant spatial aggregation of high and low habitat quality in Ningxia, with high values usually distributed in the northern and southern areas with good natural conditions and low values distributed in areas with frequent human activities and poor natural conditions. The decrease in habitat quality in Ningxia was mainly due to the expansion of cultivated land and construction land, the increase in landscape fragmentation and the resulting decrease in connectivity. On the other hand, due to the implementation of ecological protection measures, such as the project of returning farmland to pasture and grass to forest, the quality of habitats in Ningxia increased. The conclusions of this study support the idea that the conservation of habitat quality in ecologically fragile areas should fully preserve the original natural habitats and reduce the interference of human activities to increase the habitat suitability of the landscape and the habitat connectivity between patches. At the same time, targeted ecological protection policies should be developed to restore the areas where the habitat quality has been damaged and ultimately maintain the stability of biodiversity and ecosystems in ecologically fragile areas. Meanwhile, for ecologically fragile areas with similar ecological characteristics to those of Ningxia, our research supports the idea of increasing the protection of the stability of the original habitats, increasing the proportion of ecological restoration projects, financial investment and seeking cooperation with local community managers and residents will help to improve the quality of the regional habitats and the enrichment of the biodiversity, and ultimately promote the harmonious coexistence of human beings and nature in the modernized sense of the word.

Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14-36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year-1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year-1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

Contribution of cultural heritage values to steppe conservation on ancient burial mounds of Eurasia

Civilizations, including ancient ones, have shaped global ecosystems in many ways through coevolution of landscapes and humans. However, the cultural legacies of ancient and lost civilizations are rarely considered in the conservation of the Eurasian steppe biome. We used a data set containing more than 1000 records on localities, land cover, protection status, and cultural values related to ancient steppic burial mounds (kurgans); we evaluated how these iconic and widespread landmarks can contribute to grassland conservation in the Eurasian steppes, which is one of the most endangered biomes on Earth. Using Bayesian logistic generalized regressions and proportional odds logistic regressions, we examined the potential of mounds to preserve grasslands in landscapes with different levels of land-use transformation. We also compared the conservation potential of mounds inside and outside protected areas and assessed whether local cultural values support the maintenance of grasslands on them. Kurgans were of great importance in preserving grasslands in transformed landscapes outside protected areas, where they sometimes acted as habitat islands that contributed to habitat conservation and improved habitat connectivity. In addition to steep slopes hindering ploughing, when mounds had cultural value for local communities, the probability of grassland occurrence on kurgans almost doubled. Because the estimated number of steppic mounds is about 600,000 and similar historical features exist on all continents, our results may be applicable at a global level. Our results also suggested that an integrative socioecological approach in conservation might support the positive synergistic effects of conservation, landscape, and cultural values.

Spatial-temporal evolution and correlation analysis between habitat quality and landscape patterns based on land use change in Shaanxi Province, China

Regional habitat quality is an important reflection of ecosystem services and ecosystem health. Exploring the characteristics of habitat quality changes and revealing the vulnerability of regional ecosystems caused could provide reference for the improvement of ecological service functions and the protection of regional ecological environment. Based on remote sensing data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2015, InVEST model and grid analysis were used to analyze the evolution characteristics of habitat quality and landscape pattern, and spatial autocorrelation was also used to analyze the spatial correlation and temporal evolution characteristics. The results showed: (1) Arable land, grassland, and forest land were the main landscape types in Shaanxi province, accounting for more than 94% of the total area, and the arable land and unused land showed a decreasing trend, while the grassland and forest land showed an increasing trend, and the proportion of construction land continued to increase with the rapid economic development from 2000 to 2015; (2) The spatial distribution characteristics of habitat quality was similar to land use cover change, which was "high in the southern and central forest areas, low in the northern sandy land and central urban agglomeration", and habitat quality value showed a steady increase, indicating that the habitat quality was getting better; (3) The landscape pattern index values of Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration changed significantly, which tended to be fragmented, and the landscape types were more diverse and uniform; (4) There were obvious spatial correlation between habitat quality and landscape pattern, and the spatial differentiation of clustering was obvious, and the clustering effect of habitat quality and landscape pattern characteristics would weaken with the increase in urbanization degree. The analysis of the spatial association between habitat quality and landscape pattern could provide scientific support for ecological protection and landscape planning.

Quantifying Soil Complexity Using Fisher Shannon Method on 3D X-ray Computed Tomography Scans

The conversion of native forest into agricultural land, which is common in many parts of the world, poses important questions regarding soil degradation, demanding further efforts to better understand the effect of land use change on soil functions. With the advent of 3D computed tomography techniques and computing power, new methods are becoming available to address this question. In this direction, in the current work we implement a modification of the Fisher-Shannon method, borrowed from information theory, to quantify the complexity of twelve 3D CT soil samples from a sugarcane plantation and twelve samples from a nearby native Atlantic forest in northeastern Brazil. The distinction found between the samples from the sugar plantation and the Atlantic forest site is quite pronounced. The results at the level of 91.7% accuracy were obtained considering the complexity in the Fisher-Shannon plane. Atlantic forest samples are found to be generally more complex than those from the sugar plantation.

[Temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem service value in Ili Valley and its driving factors]

Ili Valley is an important ecological barrier in western China and an important economic zone of the Belt and Road Initiative. Exploring the driving factors of ecosystem service value (ESV) based on land use change is of great significance for optimizing regional ecological environment and coordinating human-land relationship. Based on three periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Yili Valley, we used ArcGIS 10.8 and Origin to analyze the characteristics of land use change, temporal and spatial variations of ESV, and the synergy and trade-offs of ecosystem services, and explored the driving factors affecting the spatial differentiation of ESV and the interaction among factors by using Geo-Detector. The results showed that land use change in the study area was obvious from 2000 to 2020, with the area of grassland and water area being greatly reduced and the largest increase for the area of construction land. The ESV of grassland and water area and the service function of water resource supply decreased significantly. ESV high value areas were transformed to low value areas. Synergy was the dominant relationship among ecosystem services in the study area, which showed an increasing trend. Elevation was the main driving factor of ESV spatial differentiation in Yili Valley, and the low elevation plain area suitable for human activities on both sides of the basin was the low ESV value area. The interaction between all factors was manifested as enhanced relationship, while the explanatory power of natural factors was higher than that of social and economic factors.

Knowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate

Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers increasingly use knowledge coproduction to guide the stewardship of future landscapes under climate change. This process was applied in the California Central Valley (USA) to solve complex conservation problems, where managed wetlands and croplands are flooded between fall and spring to support some of the largest concentrations of shorebirds and waterfowl in the world. We coproduced scenario narratives, spatially explicit flooded waterbird habitat models, data products, and new knowledge about climate adaptation potential. We documented our coproduction process, and using the coproduced models, we determined when and where management actions make a difference and when climate overrides these actions. The outcomes of this process provide lessons learned on how to cocreate usable information and how to increase climate adaptive capacity in a highly managed landscape. Actions to restore wetlands and prioritize their water supply created habitat outcomes resilient to climate change impacts particularly in March, when habitat was most limited; land protection combined with management can increase the ecosystem's resilience to climate change; and uptake and use of this information was influenced by the roles of different stakeholders, rapidly changing water policies, discrepancies in decision-making time frames, and immediate crises of extreme drought. Although a broad stakeholder group contributed knowledge to scenario narratives and model development, to coproduce usable information, data products were tailored to a small set of decision contexts, leading to fewer stakeholder participants over time. A boundary organization convened stakeholders across a large landscape, and early adopters helped build legitimacy. Yet, broadscale use of climate adaptation knowledge depends on state and local policies, engagement with decision makers that have legislative and budgetary authority, and the capacity to fit data products to specific decision needs.

[Simulation of land use and assessment of ecosystem service value in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province, China]

Simulating the change of ecosystem service values (ESV) caused by land use/cover change (LUCC) in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province is of great significance for regional sustainable development and ecological security. Based on remote sensing images of land use and Statistics Yearbook of 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the influence of LUCC on ESV in the study area during 2000-2020. We used the PLUS model to simulate land use change under three scenarios, including inertial development, ecological protection, and urban development in 2030, analyzed the spatial distribution and concentration degree of ESVs based on grid scale, and clarified the sensitivity characteristics of ESVs. The results showed that the construction land area showed an increasing trend during 2000-2020. The area of forest, cultivated land and water decreased significantly, resulting in a continuous downward trend of ESVs, which decreased by 160×108 yuan. Under the simulation of three scenarios of inertial development, ecological development, and urban development, the construction land area would increase by 93624, 54927, and 111966 hm2, respectively. The eastern plain would become the agglomeration area of construction land expansion. The ESVs of those three scenarios was 1693×108, 1729×108, and 1688×108 yuan, respectively, which were all lower than the ESVs of the study area in 2020. The decline rate of ESV in the ecological protection scenario slowed down. The spatial distribution of ESVs in the study area was high in the west and low in the east. Hot spots and cold spots of ESVs were distributed in a large range with strong agglomeration. Hot spots were mainly concentrated in the west, while cold spots were mainly distributed in the east and north.

[Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Agro-pastoral Ecotone]

Land use and climate change are the most important factors driving the change in ecosystem services (ESs). It is critical to understand the mechanisms behind such changes for improving ESs. However, there is still a lack of accurate understanding of change and dominant influencing factors of ESs in the agro-pastoral ecotone. This study took Naiman Banner, a typical farming pastoral ecotone in China, as the case study area. Based on the InVEST model, the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) and the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) were used to calculate water yield, soil retention, and windbreak and sand-fixing in Naiman Banner in 2005 and 2015. Finally, the impacts of land use and climate change on these three ecosystem services were analyzed by using contribution rate formula, Pearson correlation coefficient, and geodetector methods. The results indicate that:① from 2005 to 2015, water yield and soil retention in Naiman Banner showed an overall upward trend, increasing by 22.41% and 6.74%, respectively, and windbreak and sand-fixing decreased by 66.24%. ② The change in water yield and windbreak and sand-fixing was mainly affected by climate change, and the change in soil retention was mainly affected by land use change. ③ Actual evapotranspiration change and land use change were the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of water yield, with the explanatory powers of 94.50% and 50.05%, respectively. The main factors influencing the spatial differentiation of windbreak and sand-fixing were actual evapotranspiration change and land desertification degree, with the explanatory power of 19.84% and 16.15%, respectively. ④ The correlation of ESs in Naiman Banner was weak, and only windbreak and sand-fixing and water yield showed a weak significant synergy. Based on the results, we recommend that managers increase the proportion of grassland in sandy areas, implement closed management in pastoral areas, and introduce drip irrigation and other water-saving technologies in farmland, and ecological protection should continue to be given priority in city.

Golf course living leads to a diet shift for American alligators

Human-driven land use change can fundamentally alter ecological communities, especially the diversity and abundance of large-bodied predators. Yet, despite the important roles large-bodied predators play in structuring communities through feeding, there have been only a few investigations of how the feeding patterns of large-bodied predators change in human-dominated landscapes. One group of large-bodied predators that has been largely overlooked in the context of land use change is the crocodilians. To help fill these gaps, we studied the feeding patterns of juvenile American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) on neighboring barrier islands on the southeast coast of Georgia, USA. Jekyll Island has multiple golf courses and substantial amounts of human activity, while Sapelo Island does not have any golf courses and a much smaller amount of human activity. We found that juvenile alligator populations on both islands ate the same types of prey but in vastly different quantities. Sapelo Island alligators primarily consumed crustaceans while alligators that lived on Jekyll Island's golf courses ate mostly insects/arachnids. Furthermore, the Jekyll Island alligators exhibited a much more generalist feeding pattern (individuals mostly ate the same types of prey in the same quantities) than the more specialized Sapelo Island alligators (diets were more varied across individuals). The most likely explanation for our results is that alligators living on golf courses have different habitat use patterns and have access to different prey communities relative to alligators in more natural habitats. Thus, land use change can strongly alter the feeding patterns of large-bodied predators and, as a result, may affect their body condition, exposure to human-made chemicals, and role within ecological communities.

Multi-scenario optimization of land use structure and prediction of ecosystem service value in Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration

Rapid economic development has led to significant changes in land use in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, which alters regional ecosystem service value (ESV). Based on the land use and driver data of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration, we used the system dynamics (SD) model coupled with the mixed-cell cellular automata (MCCA) model to predict the subtle spatial and temporal changes of ESV within the land use unit in 2040 under the scenarios of natural development, economic development, ecological protection, and arable land conservation, to reveal the responses of ESV to the socio-economic evolution. We examined the impacts of land use change on ESV by using the sensitivity index. The results showed that land use transformation between 2000 and 2020 in the study area was mainly the conversion between arable land, forest, grassland, and the conversion of arable land to construction land. Due to increased forest and water, ESV increased slightly during this period. In 2040, compared with the ecological protection scenario, the proportion of forest in the economic development scenario decreased by 1.8%, and the construction land increased by 1.3%. During 2020-2040, under the economic development scenario, ESV showed a downward trend in the central and eastern regions but an upward trend under the arable land conservation scenario, with hydrological and climatic regulation contributing the most to ESV. Total ESV showed a decreasing trend except for the ecological conservation scenario. In the ecological protection scenario, land use change positively impacted ESV. In contrast, ESV had a negative response to land use change in other scenarios, with the greatest reduction in the economic development scenario. The research could provide new methods for multi-scenario land use simulation and ESV prediction and have scientific and practical significance for optimizing land space layout, land resource planning management, and sustainable development path strategy of urban agglomerations.

World Spread of Tropical Soda Apple (Solanum viarum) under Global Change: Historical Reconstruction, Niche Shift, and Potential Geographic Distribution

Solanum viarum has become extensively invasive owing to international trade, climate change, and land-use change. As it is classified as a quarantine weed by countries such as the U.S. and Mexico, it is critical to understand the prevailing historical dispersal, ecological niche dynamics, and distribution patterns. We reconstructed the historical invasion countries and analyzed the ecological niche shift of S. viarum. Using MaxEnt based on the conservativeness of ecological niches, we studied variations in the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of S. viarum in ecosystems and variations in suitability probabilities along latitudinal gradients. The invasion history in six continents involved three phases: lag (before 1980), spread (1980-2010), and equilibrium (2010-present). The ecological niche remains conserved. The area of S. viarum PGDs had increased by 259 km2; the PGDs will expand to reach a maximum in the 2050s, SSP5-8.5. The PGDs of S. viarum will migrate to higher latitudes under the same future climate scenarios. The latitudes subject to high threats range from 20° to 30° in forest and cropland ecosystems, 15.5° to 27.5° (northern hemisphere) and 33.1° to 42.8° (southern hemisphere) in grassland ecosystems, and 20° to 35° in urban ecosystems. Global change has led to an increased threat of S. viarum at high latitudes. These findings provide a theoretical basis to monitor and control S. viarum.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Brazilian Sugar Cane Ethanol Evaluated with the GREET Model Using Data Submitted to RenovaBio

Brazil is the second-largest ethanol producer in the world, primarily using sugar cane as feedstock. To foster biofuel production, the Brazilian government implemented a national biofuel policy, known as RenovaBio, in which greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction credits are provided to biofuel producers based on the carbon intensities (CI) of the fuels they produce. In this study, we configured the GREET model to evaluate life cycle GHG emissions of Brazilian sugar cane ethanol, using data from 67 individual sugar cane mills submitted to RenovaBio in 2019/2020. The average CI per megajoule of sugar cane ethanol produced in Brazil for use in the U.S. was estimated to be 35.2 g of CO2 equivalent, a 62% reduction from U.S. petroleum gasoline blendstock without considering the impacts of land use change. The three major GHG sources were on-field N2O emissions (24.3%), sugar cane farming energy use (24.2%), and sugar cane ethanol transport (19.3%). With the probability density functions for key input parameters derived from individual mill data, we performed stochastic simulations with the GREET model to estimate the variations in sugar cane ethanol CI and confirmed that despite the larger variations in sugar cane ethanol CI, the fuel provided a robust GHG reduction benefit compared to gasoline blendstock.

Spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem security pattern in Horqin sandy dune meadow alternating area, China

The natural and geographical environment of ecologically fragile areas in northern China is complex. Due to heavy human disturbance and impacts of climate change, the sustainable development of ecosystems is facing serious challenges. Constructing ecological security pattern can provide decision-making basis for ecological environment protection in desertification areas. Based on land use change data of Horqin dune-meadow interphase area from 1985 to 2021, we identified ecological sources with the importance of ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity, and constructed the ecological security pattern using the minimum cumulative resistance model. We further analyzed the ecological security pattern and its development trend in 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015 and 2021, and explored the ecological spatial layout adjustment strategy. The results showed that the proportion of source area in the ecological security pattern of the study area was always small and scattered from 1985 to 2021, the network of ecological corridors was low, and the connectivity between ecological patches was lacking. The ecological security pattern had experienced a trend of deterioration first and then gradually improving. Ecological policies such as returning farmland to forest and grassland and afforestation had significantly improved the environmental security. We optimized the study area by combining the cultivated land suitability evaluation method. The ecological security pattern showed a spatial trend of 'dual-core, scattered and semi-surrounded'. The results could provide references for the construction of county-scale ecological security pattern in ecologically fragile areas and the ecological management of Horqin sands.

South American Dry Chaco rangelands: Positive effects of cattle trampling and transit on ecohydrological functioning

Livestock production in drylands requires consideration of the ecological applications of ecohydrological redistribution of water. Intensive cattle trampling and the associated increase of surface runoff are common concerns for rangeland productivity and sustainability. Here, we highlight a regional livestock production system in which cattle trails and trampling surrounding an artificial impoundment are purposely managed to enhance redistribution and availability of water for cattle drinking. Based on literature synthesis and field measurements, we first describe cattle production systems and surface water redistribution in the Dry Chaco rangelands of South America, and then develop a conceptual framework to synthesize the ecohydrological impacts of livestock production on these ecosystems. Critical to this framework is the pioshere-a degraded overgrazed and overtrampled area where vegetation has difficulties growing, usually close to the water points. The Dry Chaco rangelands have three key distinctive characteristics associated with the flat sedimentary environment lacking fresh groundwater and the very extensive ranching conditions: (1) cattle drinking water is provided by artificial impoundments filled by runoff, (2) heavy trampling around the impoundment and its adjacent areas generates a piosphere that favors runoff toward the impoundment, and (3) the impoundment, piosphere, and extensive forage areas are hydrologically connected with a network of cattle trails. We propose an ecohydrological framework where cattle transit and trampling alter the natural water circulation of these ecosystems, affecting small fractions of the landscape through increased runoff (compaction in piosphere and trails), surface connectivity (convergence of trails to piosphere to impoundment), and ponding (compaction of the impoundment floor) that operate together making water harvesting and storage possible. These effects have likely generated a positive water feedback on the expansion of livestock in the region with a relatively low impact on forage production. We highlight the role of livestock transit as a geomorphological agent capable of reshaping the hydrology of flat sedimentary rangelands in ways that can be managed positively for sustainable ranching systems. We suggest that the Dry Chaco offers an alternative paradigm for rangelands in which cattle trampling may contribute to sustainable seminatural production systems with implications for other dry and flat rangelands of the world.

Assessment of Carbon Storage under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios in Terrestrial Ecosystems of Jilin Province, China

Carbon storage is one of the key factors determining the global carbon balance in the terrestrial ecosystems. Predicting future changes in carbon storage is significant for regional sustainable development in the background of the "dual carbon" objective. This study which coupled the InVEST model and the PLUS model and is based on land use in different future scenarios evaluated the evolution characterization of terrestrial carbon storage in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2040 and explored the impact of related factors on it. The results show that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land and built-up areas increased continuously in Jilin Province, while the area of forest land, grassland, and wetland decreased with time; the ecological land has been restored to a certain degree. (2) Due to the continuous reduction in ecological land, the overall carbon storage in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2020 showed a downward trend, with a total reduction of 30.3 Tg, and the carbon storage in the western part of Jilin Province changed significantly. The SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario shows a minimum value of carbon storage in 2030 and a small increase in 2040; the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario shows an increasing trend in carbon storage from 2020 to 2040; the area of built-up areas and cultivated land increases and the loss in carbon storage is more serious under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario. (3) On the whole, with the increase in elevation and slope, the carbon storage showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, and the carbon storage of shady and semi-shady slopes was higher than that of sunny and semi-sunny slopes; forest land and cultivated land were the keys to carbon storage changes in Jilin Province.

Sunflower-Associated Reductions in Varroa Mite Infestation of Honey Bee Colonies

Landscapes can affect parasite epidemiology in wild and agricultural animals. Honey bees are threatened by loss of floral resources and by parasites, principally the mite Varroa destructor and the viruses it vectors. Existing mite control relies heavily on chemical treatments that can adversely affect bees. Alternative, pesticide-free control methods are needed to mitigate infestation with these ectoparasites. Many flowering plants provide nectar and pollen that confer resistance to parasites. Enrichment of landscapes with antiparasitic floral resources could therefore provide a sustainable means of parasite control in pollinators. Floral rewards of Asteraceae plants can reduce parasitic infection in diverse bee species, including honey and bumble bees. Here, we tested the effects of sunflower (Helianthus annuus) cropland and pollen supplementation on honey bee resistance to macro- and microparasites. Although sunflower had nonsignificant effects on microparasites, We found that increased sunflower pollen availability correlated with reduced Varroa mite infestation in landscapes and pollen-supplemented colonies. At the landscape level, each doubling of sunflower crop area was associated with a 28% reduction in mite infestation. In field trials, late-summer supplementation of colonies with sunflower pollen reduced mite infestation by 2.75-fold relative to artificial pollen. United States sunflower crop acreage has declined by 2% per year since 1980, however, suggesting reduced availability of this floral resource. Although further research is needed to determine whether the observed effects represent direct inhibition of mite fecundity or mite-limiting reductions in honey bee brood-rearing, our findings suggest the potential for sunflower plantings or pollen supplements to counteract a major driver of honey bee losses worldwide.

Effect of fencing on regional ecological networks in the northern Tibetan Plateau

Fencing is an essential measure for the rehabilitation and conservation of grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, its construction could change the distribution and migration of wildlife, thus affecting the integrity of the ecological networks for local wild animal movement. It is of great significance to quantify the potential impact of fencing on ecological network connectivity associated with land-use changes at regional scale. In this study, taking the northern Tibetan Plateau as the study area, we explored the ecological network change using circuit theory approach under different scenarios at county scale. Among them, this study set up four different scenarios according to the economic growth rate, population growth rate and the sustainable development of society and environment. The results showed that: 1) with increased grazing intensity and enhanced human activities from 1990 to 2015, the grasslands of the northern Tibetan Plateau were greatly degraded, most of which was converted into the barren land, and the conversion proportion was as high as 90.84%, which lead to a decreasing trend of the current density of ecological network in most counties and deterioration of ecological connectivity; 2) fencing construction has reduced regional current density, while fencing intensity is positively correlated with current density loss at county scale. Among them, the counties with serious current density loss were distributed in the northwest and southeast regions. The maximum loss ratio is 39.23%; 3) under four different future land use scenarios, coordinated economic, social and environmental development will have a positive effect on the ecological network. The results of the study have important ecological significance for developing reasonable conservation measures for grassland restoration, protecting wildlife, and maintaining regional ecological balance.

Conversion of drylands to paddy fields on former wetlands restores soil organic carbon by accumulating labile carbon fractions in the Sanjiang Plain, northeast China

BACKGROUND

Since the 1990s, drylands have been extensively converted to rice paddy fields on the former wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of northeast China. However, the influence of this successiveland-use change from native wetlands to drylands to rice paddy fields on soil organic carbon (C) dynamics remains unexplored. Here, we compared the difference in soil organic C stock among native wetlands, drylands, and paddy fields, and then used a two-step acid hydrolysis approach to examine the effect of this land-use change on labile C I (LPI-C), labile C II (LPII-C), and recalcitrant C (RP-C) fractions at depths of 0-15 cm, 15-30 cm, and 30-50 cm.

RESULTS

Soil organic C stock at a depth of 0-50 cm was reduced by 79% after the conversion of wetlands to drylands but increased by 24% when drylands were converted to paddy fields. Compared with wetlands, paddy fields had 74% lower soil organic C stock at a depth of 0-50 cm. The conversion of wetlands to drylands reduced the concentrations of LPI-C, LPII-C, and RP-C fractions at each soil depth. However, land-use change from drylands to paddy fields only increased the concentrations of LPI-C and LPII-C fractions at the 0-15 cm and 30-50 cm depths.

CONCLUSION

The conversion of drylands to paddy lands on former wetlands enhances the soil organic C stock by promoting labile C fraction accumulation, and labile C fractions are more sensitive to this successive land-use change than recalcitrant C fractions in the Sanjiang Plain of northeast China. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

The Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Driving Forces of Land Use in the Context of Urbanization in China: Evidence from Nanchang City

Land use change has been one of the common problems in the context of urbanization in China. Social economy and land use interact with each other, and it is especially important for human society to adhere to sustainable development, and to deal with the contradictory relationship between the social-economic needs and land use change. The objectives of this study are: (1) Obtain time-series land-use classification data and its spatial distribution in Nanchang City; (2) Identify the characteristics and driving force of spatial-temporal land use changes in Nanchang City from 2000 to 2020; (3) Discuss the relationship between the urban expansion and social economy in Nanchang City. The results show that the spatial distribution of land use in Nanchang City has changed significantly from 2000 to 2020, and the largest area of land-use type in Nanchang City has been cropland. The cropland has continuously declined, and the urban area has increased significantly. A lot of cropland has been transformed into urban areas, and land use degree in Nanchang City has significantly increased. The spatial pattern of land use has greatly changed, and the city spatial pattern has become more aggregated, while the spatial distribution of cropland, forest and grassland has become more fragmented. Moreover, there has been an obvious correlation between social-economic development and the level of land use, and GDP has been the main driver of land use change. The central urban area of Nanchang city has been the main hotspot of land use change.

The Nonlinear Impact of Mobile Human Activities on Vegetation Change in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Vegetation is essential for ecosystem function and sustainable urban development. In the context of urbanization, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), as the typical urban-dominated region, has experienced a remarkable increase in social and economic activities. Their impact on vegetation is of great significance but unclear, as interannual flow data and linear methods have limitations. Therefore, in this study, we used human and vehicle flow data to build and simulate the indices of mobile human activity. In addition, we used partial least squares regression (PLSR), random forest (RF), and geographical detector (GD) models to analyze the impact of mobile human activities on vegetation change. The results showed that indices of mobile human and vehicle flow increased by 1.43 and 7.68 times from 2000 to 2019 in the GBA, respectively. Simultaneously, vegetation increased by approximately 64%, whereas vegetation decreased mainly in the urban areas of the GBA. Vegetation change had no significant linear correlation with mobile human activities, exhibiting a regression coefficient below 0.1 and a weight of coefficients of PLSR less than 40 between vegetation change and all the factors of human activities. However, a more significant nonlinear relationship between vegetation change and driving factors were obtained. In the RF regression model, vegetation decrease was significantly affected by mobile human activity of vehicle flow, with an importance score of 108.11. From the GD method, vegetation decrease was found to mainly interact with indices of mobile human and vehicle inflow, and the highest interaction force was 0.82. These results may support the attainment of sustainable social-ecological systems and global environmental change.

Analysis of Land Use Change Drivers and Simulation of Different Future Scenarios: Taking Shanxi Province of China as an Example

This study analyzed change and spatial patterns of land use in Shanxi from 2000 to 2020. The drivers of land use and cover change (LUCC) in cultivated lands, forest lands, grasslands, and rural construction areas were explored from four dimensions, including population, natural environment, location traffic, and economic development. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the scenarios of natural growth (NG), ecological protection (EP), economic development (ED), food security (FS), ecological protection-economic development (EP-ED), and ecological protection-food security (EP-FS) in 2030. The results indicated that: (1) The conversion to built-up areas primarily dominated the LUCC processes, and their expansion was mainly to the detriment of the cultivated lands and grasslands during 2000-2020. (2) From 2000 to 2020, population, economy, and land productivity were the main factors of LUCC; the interaction of drivers for the increase of cultivated lands, forest lands, grasslands, and rural construction areas showed enhancement. (3) Under the NG, ED, and EP-ED scenarios, the rural construction areas would have increased significantly, while under the FS and EP-FS scenarios, the cultivated lands would only just have increased. These future land use scenarios can inform decision-makers to make sound decisions that balance socio-economic, ecological, and food security benefits.

The Different Fate of the Pyrenean Desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) and the Eurasian Otter (Lutra lutra) under Climate and Land Use Changes

Climate and land use change can affect biodiversity in different ways, e.g., determining habitat loss, altering reproduction periods or disrupting biotic interactions. Here, we investigate the effects of climate and land use change on the spatial distribution of two semi-aquatic mammals, the Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) and the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra). We first modeled the current potential distribution of the desman and the otter in the Iberian Peninsula, considering topographic, climatic and land use variables. Second, we predicted their potential distribution in 2050 under climate and land use change scenarios. We calculated the percentage of range gain/loss and shift predicted for the two species under such scenarios and quantified the present and future spatial overlap between the two species distribution. Irrespective of the scenario, desman models show loss of suitable habitat, whereas the otter will undergo an opposite trend. Aside from a preponderant habitat loss, the desman is predicted to increase its spatial overlap with otter range under the optimistic scenarios, potentially meaning it will face an exacerbated predation by otters. The potential increase of both habitat loss and otters' predation might represent a major threat for the desman, which may affect the long-term persistence of this endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula.

Fluvial Deposition and Land Use Change Control Selenium Occurrence in Mollisols of Cold Region Agroecosystems

Mollisols support the most productive agroecosystems in the world. Despite their critical links to food quality and human health, the varying distributions of selenium (Se) species and factors governing Se mobility in the mollisol vadose zone remain elusive. This research reveals that, in northern mollisol agroecosystems, Se hotspots (≥0.32 mg/kg) prevail along the regional river systems draining the Lesser Khingan Mountains, where piedmont Se-rich oil shales are the most probable source of regional Se. While selenate and selenite dominate Se species in the water-soluble and absorbed pools, mollisol organic matter is the major host for Se. Poorly crystalline and crystalline Fe oxides are subordinate in Se retention, hosting inorganic and organic Se at levels comparable to those in the adsorbed pool. The depth-dependent distributions of mollisol Se species for the non-cropland and cropland sites imply a predominance of reduced forms of Se under the mildly acidic and reducing conditions that, in turn, are variably impacted by agricultural land use. These findings therefore highlight that fluvial deposition and land use change together are the main drivers of the spatial variability and speciation of mollisol Se.

Fine-scale evaluation of two standard 16S rRNA gene amplicon primer pairs for analysis of total prokaryotes and archaeal nitrifiers in differently managed soils

The advance of high-throughput molecular biology tools allows in-depth profiling of microbial communities in soils, which possess a high diversity of prokaryotic microorganisms. Amplicon-based sequencing of 16S rRNA genes is the most common approach to studying the richness and composition of soil prokaryotes. To reliably detect different taxonomic lineages of microorganisms in a single soil sample, an adequate pipeline including DNA isolation, primer selection, PCR amplification, library preparation, DNA sequencing, and bioinformatic post-processing is required. Besides DNA sequencing quality and depth, the selection of PCR primers and PCR amplification reactions arguably have the largest influence on the results. This study tested the performance and potential bias of two primer pairs, i.e., 515F (Parada)-806R (Apprill) and 515F (Parada)-926R (Quince) in the standard pipelines of 16S rRNA gene Illumina amplicon sequencing protocol developed by the Earth Microbiome Project (EMP), against shotgun metagenome-based 16S rRNA gene reads. The evaluation was conducted using five differently managed soils. We observed a higher richness of soil total prokaryotes by using reverse primer 806R compared to 926R, contradicting to in silico evaluation results. Both primer pairs revealed various degrees of taxon-specific bias compared to metagenome-derived 16S rRNA gene reads. Nonetheless, we found consistent patterns of microbial community variation associated with different land uses, irrespective of primers used. Total microbial communities, as well as ammonia oxidizing archaea (AOA), the predominant ammonia oxidizers in these soils, shifted along with increased soil pH due to agricultural management. In the unmanaged low pH plot abundance of AOA was dominated by the acid-tolerant NS-Gamma clade, whereas limed agricultural plots were dominated by neutral-alkaliphilic NS-Delta/NS-Alpha clades. This study stresses how primer selection influences community composition and highlights the importance of primer selection for comparative and integrative studies, and that conclusions must be drawn with caution if data from different sequencing pipelines are to be compared.

Evolution of Habitat Quality and Its Response to Topographic Gradient Effect in a Karst Plateau: A Case Study of the Key Biodiversity Conservation Project Area of Wuling Mountains

Habitat quality (HQ) is widely considered to be a proxy indicator for biodiversity. Assessing the dynamic changes in HQ induced by land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes could provide a scientific perspective for regional sustainable development, especially in the ecologically fragile karst plateau mountainous areas. We selected nine landscape metrics to examine LULC dynamics in the Key Biodiversity Conservation Project Area of Wuling Mountains in Guizhou province, China, based on the land-use data for the 1990-2018 period. HQ was evaluated using the InVEST model and the topographic gradient effect on HQ was analyzed using the topographic position index. The results showed that the dominant land categories in the study area were arable land, grassland, and forestland. Land transformation was mainly characterized by a shift from cultivated land to construction land and forestland, and a mutual conversion between grassland and forestland. The changes improved landscape heterogeneity and the degree of fragmentation. The HQ of the study area was high, although exhibited a declining trend from 1990 to 2018. The eastern and western parts had relatively high HQ, whereas the southern and northern parts had low HQ. The topographic gradient had a significant effect on spatial patterns of HQ. High HQ distribution was consistent with that of forestland and was dominant along the topographic gradient, while low HQ distribution was consistent with that of construction land and cultivated land and was dominant along the topographic gradient.

Using the atmospheric CO2 growth rate to constrain the CO2 flux from land use and land cover change since 1900

We explore the ability of the atmospheric CO₂ record since 1900 to constrain the source of CO₂ from land use and land cover change (hereafter "land use"), taking account of uncertainties in other terms in the global carbon budget. We find that the atmospheric constraint favors land use CO₂ flux estimates with lower decadal variability and can identify potentially erroneous features, such as emission peaks around 1960 and after 2000, in some published estimates. Furthermore, we resolve an offset in the global carbon budget that is most plausibly attributed to the land use flux. This correction shifts the mean land use flux since 1900 across 20 published estimates down by 0.35 PgC year^-1 to 1.04 ± 0.57 PgC year^-1 , which is within the range but at the low end of these estimates. We show that the atmospheric CO₂ record can provide insights into the time history of the land use flux that may reduce uncertainty in this term and improve current understanding and projections of the global carbon cycle.

Urban Expansion Was the Main Driving Force for the Decline in Ecosystem Services in Hainan Island during 1980-2015

Hainan Island is one of China's most ecologically diverse areas. Human activities and climate change have recently influenced Hainan Island's ecosystem services. Therefore, scientific methods are urgently needed to investigate the characteristics of these services' spatial and temporal variations and their driving mechanisms for maintaining Hainan Island's biodiversity and high-quality ecological conservation. Based on multivariate remote sensing and reanalysis data, this study analysed the spatial and temporal variations in water retention, soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and oxygen release services on Hainan Island during 1980-2015 using various ecosystem service models such as INVEST, CASA and RULSE. Then, we analysed different ecosystem service drivers using a random forest model. The results indicated that (1) from 1980 to 2015, the change characteristics of different ecosystem types (arable, forest, and grassland) decreased, and the proportion of decrease was 0.98%, 0.55% and 0.36%, respectively. Built-up and water increased significantly, and the proportion of increase reached 1.46% and 0.51%, respectively. (2) Hainan Island's functions of water retention, soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and oxygen release services decreased from 23.31 billion m3, 2.89 billion t, 9.68 million t and 56.05 million t in 1980 to 23.15 billion m3, 2.79 billion t, 9.42 million t and 55.53 million t in 2015, respectively. The high value area was mainly distributed in Hainan Island's central mountainous area, and the low value area was mainly distributed in the lower-elevation coastal area. (3) In the past 35 years, urban expansion has been the leading factor in the reduction of Hainan Island's ecosystem service capacity. However, its central nature reserve and other forms of ecological protection have improved its ecosystem service capacity, which has alleviated the overall declining trend of its amount of ecosystem service functions. (4) The driving forces for the spatial distribution of Hainan Island's ecosystem services were analysed using a random forest algorithm, which indicated that its spatial distribution was mainly driven by rainfall, soil moisture, actual evapotranspiration, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature. This study is expected to help planners develop effective environmental policies to accommodate the potential ecological risks associated with urban expansion during the construction of Hainan Island's future free trade port while filling the gaps in existing studies.

Urbanization Impact on Regional Sustainable Development: Through the Lens of Urban-Rural Resilience

The urban-rural system is an economically, socially, and environmentally interlinked space, which requires the integration of industry, space, and population. To achieve sustainable and coordinated development between urban and rural systems, dynamic land use change within the urban-rural system and the ecological and social consequences need to be clarified. This study uses system resilience to evaluate such an impact and explores the impact of land use change, especially land conversion induced by urbanization on regional development through the lens of urban-rural resilience. The empirical case is based on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration (BTHUA) in China from 2000 to 2020 when there was rapid urbanization in this region. The results show that along with urbanization in the BTHUA, urban-rural resilience is high in urban core areas and low in peripheral areas. From the urban core to the rural outskirts, there is a general trend that comprehensive resilience decreases with decreased social resilience and increased ecological resilience in this region. Specifically, at the city level, comprehensive resilience decreases sharply from the urban center to its 3-5 km buffer zone and then remains relatively stable in the rural regions. A similar trend goes for social resilience at the city level, while ecological resilience increases sharply from the urban center to its 1-3 km buffer zone, and then remains relatively stable in the rural regions in this region, except for cities in the west and south of Hebei. This study contributes to the conceptualization and measurement of urban-rural resilience in the urban-rural system with empirical findings revealing the impact of rapid urbanization on urban-rural resilience over the last twenty years in the BTHUA in China. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity results could be used for policy reference to make targeted resilience strategies in the study region.

[Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Carbon Storage in the Source Region of the Yellow River Based on InVEST and GeoSoS-FLUS Models and Its Response to Different Future Scenarios]

Regional land use change is the main cause of carbon storage changes in ecosystems. Predicting the impact of future land use changes on carbon storage is of great significance for the sustainable development of carbon storage functions. In recent years, under the combined action of natural and human factors, the land use in the source region of the Yellow River has changed significantly, and its carbon storage function has also changed accordingly. This study combined InVEST and GeoSoS-FLUS models to evaluate land use change and its impact on carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2040 under different scenarios. The results showed that:① from 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River showed an overall upward trend, with a total increase of 11.59×10⁶ t. ② Over the past 20 years, the land use changes in the source region of the Yellow River included mainly the increase in the area of low-coverage grassland, construction land, and wetland and the decrease in the area of high-coverage grassland, medium-coverage grassland, and unused land, as well as the large-scale reduction of unused land and the reduction of grassland. The increase in the area of wetlands was the main reason for the increase in carbon storage. ③ Under the natural change scenario in 2040, the ecosystem carbon storage in the source region of the Yellow River was 871.34×10⁶ t, an increase of 3.92×10⁶ t compared with that in 2020. Under the ecological protection scenario, carbon storage increased significantly, with an increase of 13.53×10⁶ t compared with that in 2020. The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the decision-making of land use management and the sustainable development of carbon storage function in the source region of the Yellow River.

Responses of soil greenhouse gas emissions to land use conversion and reversion-A global meta-analysis

Exploring the responses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to land use conversion or reversion is significant for taking effective land use measures to alleviate global warming. A global meta-analysis was conducted to analyze the responses of carbon dioxide (CO₂ ), methane (CH₄ ), and nitrous oxide (N₂ O) emissions to land use conversion or reversion, and determine their temporal evolution, driving factors, and potential mechanisms. Our results showed that CH₄ and N₂ O responded positively to land use conversion while CO₂ responded negatively to the changes from natural herb and secondary forest to plantation. By comparison, CH₄ responded negatively to land use reversion and N₂ O also showed negative response to the reversion from agricultural land to forest. The conversion of land use weakened the function of natural forest and grassland as CH₄ sink and the artificial nitrogen (N) addition for plantation increased N source for N₂ O release from soil, while the reversion of land use could alleviate them to some degree. Besides, soil carbon would impact CO₂ emission for a long time after land use conversion, and secondary forest reached the CH₄ uptake level similar to that of primary forest after over 40 years. N₂ O responses had negative relationships with time interval under the conversions from forest to plantation, secondary forest, and pasture. In addition, meta-regression indicated that CH₄ had correlations with several environmental variables, and carbon-nitrogen ratio had contrary relationships with N₂ O emission responses to land use conversion and reversion. And the importance of driving factors displayed that CO₂ , CH₄ , and N₂ O response to land use conversion and reversion was easily affected by NH₄ ⁺ and soil moisture, mean annual temperature and NO₃ ^- , total nitrogen and mean annual temperature, respectively. This study would provide enlightenments for scientific land management and reduction of GHG emissions.

Optimization of Spatial Land Use Patterns with Low Carbon Target: A Case Study of Sanmenxia, China

Land use change is an important factor in atmospheric carbon emissions. Most of the existing studies focus on modeling the land use pattern for a certain period of time in the future and calculating and analyzing carbon emissions. However, few studies have optimized the spatial pattern of land use from the perspective of the impact of carbon emission constraints on land use structure. Therefore, in this study, the effects of land use change on carbon emissions from 1990 to 2020 were modeled using a carbon flow model for Sanmenxia, Henan, China, as an example. Then, the land use carbon emission function under the low carbon target was constructed, and the differential evolution (DE) algorithm was used to obtain the optimized land use quantity structure. Finally, the PLUS model was used to predict the optimal spatial configuration of land use patterns to minimize carbon emissions. The study produced three major results. (1) From 1990 to 2020, the structural change of land use in Sanmenxia mainly occurred between cultivated land, forest land, grassland and construction land. During this period of land use change, the carbon emissions from construction land first increased and then decreased, but despite the decrease, carbon emissions still exceeded carbon sinks, and the carbon metabolism of land use was still far from equilibrium. (2) Between 2010 and 2020, the area of cultivated land began to decrease, and the area of forest land rapidly increased, and land-use-related carbon emissions showed negative growth. This showed that the structural adjustment of energy consumption in Sanmenxia during the period decreased carbon emissions in comparison with the previous period. (3) A comparison of predicted optimized land use patterns with land use patterns in an as-is development scenario showed a decrease in construction land area of 23.05 km² in 2030 with a steady increase in forest land area and a decrease in total carbon emission of 20.43 t. The newly converted construction land in the optimized land use pattern was concentrated in the ribbon-clustered towns built during urban expansion along the Shaanling basin of the Yellow River and the Mianchi-Yima industrial development area.

Spatial-Temporal Changes and Simulation of Land Use in Metropolitan Areas: A Case of the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area, China

Metropolitan areas are the main spatial units sustaining development. Investigating internal factor changes in metropolitan areas are of great significance for improving the quality of development in these areas. As an emerging national central city of China, Zhengzhou has experienced rapid urban expansion and urbanization. In this study, principal component analysis and the model and Geodetector model were used to comprehensively analyze the influencing factors of land use change in Zhengzhou from 1980 to 2015. Based on the CA-Markov model, we improved the accuracy of multi-criteria evaluation of suitability factors and simulated land use change in 2015. The results show that land use conversions in the study area between 1980 and 2015 were frequent, with the areas of farmland, woodland, grassland, water, and unused land decreasing by 5.00%, 17.12%, 21.59%, 18.31%, and 94.48%, respectively, while construction land increased by 53.61%. The key influences on land use change are the urbanization and growth of residential or non-agricultural populations. In 2035, the area of farmland in the study area will decrease by 11.09% compared with that in 2015 and construction land will increase by 38.94%, while the area of other land use types will not significantly change. Zhengzhou, as the center city, forms a diamond-shaped core development area of Zhengzhou-Kaifeng-Xinxiang-Jiaozuo, while Xuchang is considered an independent sub-center uniting the surrounding cities for expansion. With its radiation power of unipolar core development for many years and the developmental momentum of Zhengzhou-Kaifeng integration, Zhengzhou city jointly drives the economic development of the surrounding cities. The protection of farmland and control of the expansion of construction land are the major challenges for the Zhengzhou metropolitan area to achieve sustainable development.

Ecosystem Health Responses of Urban Agglomerations in Central Yunnan Based on Land Use Change

Land use change in urban agglomerations is gradually becoming a major cause and a key factor of global environmental change. As a consequence of the interaction between land use and ecological processes, the transformation in natural ecosystem structure and function with human activity disturbances demands a systematic assessment of ecosystem health. Taking the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration, undergoing transition and development, as an example, the current study reveals the typical land use change processes and then emphasizes the importance of spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services in health assessment. The InVEST model-based ecosystem service assessment is incorporated into the ecosystem health evaluation, and hotspot analysis is performed to quantitatively measure the ecosystem health response degree to land use according to spatial latitude. The study had three major findings: First, the urban land expansion in the urban agglomeration of central Yunnan between 1990 and 2020 is the most significant. Further, the rate of the dynamic change of urban land is 16.86%, which is the highest among all land types. Second, the ecosystem health of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration is improving but with obvious spatial differences, showing a trend of increasing from urban areas to surrounding areas, with the lowest ecosystem health level and significant clustering in the areas where the towns are located. The ecosystem health level is mainly dominated by the two classes of ordinary and well grades, and the sum of the two accounts for 63.35% of the total area. Third, the process of land transfer, mutual transfer between forest and grassland, and conversion from cropland to forest land contributed the most to the improvement of ecosystem health across the study area. Furthermore, the conversion from cropland and grassland to urban land is an important cause of the sustained exacerbation of ecosystem health. Significantly, the study provides a scientific reference for maintaining ecosystem health and formulating policies for macro-control of land in the urban agglomerations of the mountain plateau.

Peatland Loss in Southeast Asia Contributing to U.S. Biofuel's Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Land use change (LUC) induced by biofuel production could lead to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which potentially increase biofuel's carbon intensity. Among the sources of LUC-related emissions for soy biodiesel, the contribution from peatland loss to agricultural plantations in Southeast Asia remains uncertain. Here, we analyzed LUC in Malaysia and Indonesia and modeled its impacts on the GHG emissions of soy biodiesel produced in the United States. It shows that oil palm plantations have more than doubled over 2001-2016 and the area of palm-on-peatlands (PoP) has expanded 3.7 times. Over new palm plantations, the share of PoP is about 19% regardless of time and location and the emission factor (EF) for peatland-to-palm conversion is estimated to be 41.5 Mg CO₂ ha^-1 yr^-1. With these updates on PoP and EF, the contribution of peatland loss (0.7-5.1 g CO₂e MJ^-1) to biodiesel emissions is only 40-65% of previous estimates, which reduces discrepancies among model simulations used by different agencies. Based on emerging evidence on LUC and related carbon changes, our analysis reexamines regional peatland loss and its impacts on LUC emissions modeling and provides new insights into the estimation of LUC impacts on biofuels' carbon intensity.