Effectiveness of a killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccine in Bangladesh: further follow-up of a cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) are widely used for prevention of cholera in developing countries. However, few studies have evaluated the protection conferred by internationally recommended OCVs for durations beyond 2 years of follow-up.

METHODS

In this study, we followed up the participants of a cluster-randomised controlled trial for 2 years after the end of the original trial. Originally, we had randomised 90 geographical clusters in Dhaka slums in Bangladesh in equal numbers (1:1:1) to a two-dose regimen of OCV alone (targeted to people aged 1 year or older), a two-dose regimen of OCV plus a water-sanitation-hygiene (WASH) intervention, or no intervention. There was no masking of group assignment. The WASH intervention conferred little additional protection to OCV and was discontinued at 2 years of follow-up. Surveillance for severe cholera was continued for 4 years. Because of the short duration and effect of the WASH intervention, we combined the two OCV intervention groups. The primary outcomes were OCV overall protection (protection of all members of the intervention clusters) and total protection (protection of individuals who got vaccinated in the intervention clusters) against severe cholera, which we assessed by multivariable survival models appropriate for cluster-randomised trials. This trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01339845.

FINDINGS

The study was done between April 17, 2011, and Nov 1, 2015. 268 896 participants were present at the time of the first dose, with 188 206 in the intervention group and 80 690 in the control group. OCV coverage of the two groups receiving OCV was 66% (123 659 of 187 214 participants). During 4 years of follow-up, 441 first episodes of severe cholera were detected (243 episodes in the vaccinated groups and as 198 episodes in the unvaccinated group). Overall OCV protection was 36% (95% CI 19 to 49%) and total OCV protection was 46% (95% CI 32 to 58). Cumulative total vaccine protection was notably lower for people vaccinated before the age of 5 years (24%; -30 to 56) than for people vaccinated at age 5 years or older (49%; 35 to 60), although the differences in protection for the two age groups were not significant (p=0·3308). Total vaccine protection dropped notably (p=0·0115) after 3 years in children vaccinated at 1-4 years of age.

INTERPRETATION

These findings provide further evidence of long-term effectiveness of killed whole-cell OCV, and therefore further support for the use of killed whole-cell OCVs to control endemic cholera, but indicate that protection is shorter-lived in children vaccinated before the age of 5 years than in people vaccinated at the age of 5 years or older.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATION

For the Bengali translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Costs and benefits of interventions aimed at major infectious disease threats: lessons from the literature

Pandemics and major outbreaks have the potential to cause large health losses and major economic costs. To prioritize between preventive and responsive interventions, it is important to understand the costs and health losses interventions may prevent. We review the literature, investigating the type of studies performed, the costs and benefits included, and the methods employed against perceived major outbreak threats. We searched PubMed and SCOPUS for studies concerning the outbreaks of SARS in 2003, H5N1 in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, Cholera in Haiti in 2010, MERS-CoV in 2013, H7N9 in 2013, and Ebola in West-Africa in 2014. We screened titles and abstracts of papers, and subsequently examined remaining full-text papers. Data were extracted according to a pre-constructed protocol. We included 34 studies of which the majority evaluated interventions related to the H1N1 outbreak in a high-income setting. Most interventions concerned pharmaceuticals. Included costs and benefits, as well as the methods applied, varied substantially between studies. Most studies used a short time horizon and did not include future costs and benefits. We found substantial variation in the included elements and methods used. Policymakers need to be aware of this and the bias toward high-income countries and pharmaceutical interventions, which hampers generalizability. More standardization of included elements, methodology, and reporting would improve economic evaluations and their usefulness for policy.

Economic burden of cholera in Asia

BACKGROUND

The economic burden data can provide a basis to inform investments in cholera control and prevention activities. However, treatment costs and productivity loss due to cholera are not well studied.

METHODS

We included Asian countries that either reported cholera cases to the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2015 or were considered cholera endemic in 2015 global burden of disease study. Public health service delivery costs for hospitalization and outpatient costs, out-of-pocket costs to patients and households, and lost productivity were extracted from literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was conducted for key outputs using Monte Carlo simulation. Scenario analyses were conducted using data from the WHO cholera reports and conservative and liberal disease burden estimates.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 14 Asian countries that were estimated to have a total of 850,000 cholera cases and 25,500 deaths in 2015 While, the WHO cholera report documented around 60,000 cholera cases and 28 deaths. We estimated around $20.2 million (I$74.4 million) in out-of-pocket expenditures, $8.5 million (I$30.1 million) in public sector costs, and $12.1 million (I$43.7 million) in lost productivity in 2015. Lost productivity due to premature deaths was estimated to be $985.7 million (I$3,638.6 million). Our scenario analyses excluding mortality costs showed that the economic burden ranged from 20.3% ($8.3 million) to 139.3% ($57.1 million) in high and low scenarios when compared to the base case scenario ($41 million) and was least at 10.1% ($4.1 million) when estimated based on cholera cases reported to WHO.

CONCLUSION

The economic burden of cholera in Asia provides a better understanding of financial offsets that can be achieved, and the value of investments on cholera control measures. With a clear understanding of the limitations of the underlying assumptions, the information may be used in economic evaluations and policy decisions.

A cholera transmission model incorporating the impact of medical resources

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of cholera under the impact of available medical resources. The model describes the interaction between the human hosts and the pathogenic bacteria and incorporates both the environment-to-human and human-to-human transmission routes. We conduct a rigorous equilibrium analysis to the model and establish the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium when R₀ ≤ 1 and that of the endemic equilibrium when R₀ > 1. As a realistic case study, we apply our model to the Yemen cholera outbreak during 2017-2018. By fitting our simulation results to the epidemic data published by the World Health Organization, we find that different levels of disease prevalence and severity are linked to different geographical regions in this country and that cholera prevention and intervention efforts should be implemented strategically with respect to these regions in Yemen.

Evaluating the costs of cholera illness and cost-effectiveness of a single dose oral vaccination campaign in Lusaka, Zambia

INTRODUCTION

In 2016, for the very first time, the Ministry of Health in Zambia implemented a reactive outbreak response to control the spread of cholera and vaccinated at-risk populations with a single dose of Shancol-an oral cholera vaccine (OCV). This study aimed to assess the costs of cholera illness and determine the cost-effectiveness of the 2016 vaccination campaign.

METHODOLOGY

From April to June 2017, we conducted a retrospective cost and cost-effectiveness analysis in three peri-urban areas of Lusaka. To estimate costs of illness from a household perspective, a systematic random sample of 189 in-patients confirmed with V. cholera were identified from Cholera Treatment Centre registers and interviewed for out-of-pocket costs. Vaccine delivery and health systems costs were extracted from financial records at the District Health Office and health facilities. The cost of cholera treatment was derived by multiplying the subsidized cost of drugs by the quantity administered to patients during hospitalisation. The cost-effectiveness analysis measured incremental cost-effectiveness ratio-cost per case averted, cost per life saved and cost per DALY averted-for a single dose OCV.

RESULTS

The mean cost per administered vaccine was US$1.72. Treatment costs per hospitalized episode were US$14.49-US$18.03 for patients ≤15 years old and US$17.66-US$35.16 for older patients. Whereas households incurred costs on non-medical items such as communication, beverages, food and transport during illness, a large proportion of medical costs were borne by the health system. Assuming vaccine effectiveness of 88.9% and 63%, a life expectancy of 62 years and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of US$1,500, the costs per case averted were estimated US$369-US$532. Costs per life year saved ranged from US$18,515-US$27,976. The total cost per DALY averted was estimated between US$698-US$1,006 for patients ≤15 years old and US$666-US$1,000 for older patients.

CONCLUSION

Our study determined that reactive vaccination campaign with a single dose of Shancol for cholera control in densely populated areas of Lusaka was cost-effective.

A Game-Theoretic Model of Cholera with Optimal Personal Protection Strategies

Cholera is an acute gastro-intestinal infection that affects millions of people throughout the world each year, primarily but not exclusively in developing countries. Because of its public health ramifications, considerable mathematical attention has been paid to the disease. Here we consider one neglected aspect of combating cholera: personal participation in anti-cholera interventions. We construct a game-theoretic model of cholera in which individuals choose whether to participate in either vaccination or clean water consumption programs under assumed costs. We find that relying upon individual compliance significantly lowers the incidence of the disease as long as the cost of intervention is sufficiently low, but does not eliminate it. The relative costs of the measures determined whether a population preferentially adopts a single preventative measure or employs the measure with the strongest early adoption.

Global economic evaluation of oral cholera vaccine: A systematic review

World Health Organization recommends oral cholera vaccine (OCV) to prevent and control cholera, but requires cost-effectiveness evidence. This review aimed to provide a critical appraisal and summary of global economic evaluation (EE) studies involving OCV to guide future EE study. Full EE studies, published from inception to December 2015, evaluating OCV against cholera disease were included. The included studies were appraised using WHO guide for standardization of EE of immunization programs. Out of 14 included studies, almost all (13/14) were in low- and middle-income countries. Most studies (11/14) evaluated mass vaccination program. Most of the studies (9/14) incorporated herd protective effect. The most common influential parameters were cholera incidence, OCV coverage, herd protection and OCV price. OCV vaccination is likely to be cost-effective when targeted at the population with high-risk of cholera and poor access to health care facilities when herd protection effect is incorporated and OCV price is low.

Cost-of-illness of cholera to households and health facilities in rural Malawi

Cholera remains an important public health problem in many low- and middle-income countries. Vaccination has been recommended as a possible intervention for the prevention and control of cholera. Evidence, especially data on disease burden, cost-of-illness, delivery costs and cost-effectiveness to support a wider use of vaccine is still weak. This study aims at estimating the cost-of-illness of cholera to households and health facilities in Machinga and Zomba Districts, Malawi. A cross-sectional study using retrospectively collected cost data was undertaken in this investigation. One hundred patients were purposefully selected for the assessment of the household cost-of-illness and four cholera treatment centres and one health facility were selected for the assessment conducted in health facilities. Data collected for the assessment in households included direct and indirect costs borne by cholera patients and their families while only direct costs were considered for the assessment conducted in health facilities. Whenever possible, descriptive and regression analysis were used to assess difference in mean costs between groups of patients. The average costs to patients’ households and health facilities for treating an episode of cholera amounted to US$65.6 and US$59.7 in 2016 for households and health facilities, respectively equivalent to international dollars (I$) 249.9 and 227.5 the same year. Costs incurred in treating a cholera episode were proportional to duration of hospital stay. Moreover, 52% of households used coping strategies to compensate for direct and indirect costs imposed by the disease. Both households and health facilities could avert significant treatment expenditures through a broader use of pre-emptive cholera vaccination. These findings have direct policy implications regarding priority investments for the prevention and control of cholera.

Saccharomyces boulardii and bismuth subsalicylate as low-cost interventions to reduce the duration and severity of cholera

We conducted a randomised single-blinded clinical trial of 100 cholera patients in Port-au-Prince, Haiti to determine if the probiotic Saccharomyces cerevisiae var. boulardii and the anti-diarrhoeal drug bismuth subsalicylate (BS) were able to reduce the duration and severity of cholera. Subjects received either: S. boulardii 250 mg, S. boulardii 250 mg capsule plus BS 524 mg tablet, BS 524 mg, or two placebo capsules every 6 hours alongside standard treatment for cholera. The length of hospitalisation plus the number and volume of emesis, stool and urine were recorded every 6 hours until the study subject was discharged (n = 83), left against medical advice (n = 11), or requested removal from the study (n = 6). There were no reported deaths or adverse study-related events. There were no statistically significant differences between the study arms and the outcomes of interest.

An optimal cost effectiveness study on Zimbabwe cholera seasonal data from 2008-2011

Incidence of cholera outbreak is a serious issue in underdeveloped and developing countries. In Zimbabwe, after the massive outbreak in 2008–09, cholera cases and deaths are reported every year from some provinces. Substantial number of reported cholera cases in some provinces during and after the epidemic in 2008–09 indicates a plausible presence of seasonality in cholera incidence in those regions. We formulate a compartmental mathematical model with periodic slow-fast transmission rate to study such recurrent occurrences and fitted the model to cumulative cholera cases and deaths for different provinces of Zimbabwe from the beginning of cholera outbreak in 2008–09 to June 2011. Daily and weekly reported cholera incidence data were collected from Zimbabwe epidemiological bulletin, Zimbabwe Daily cholera updates and Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Zimbabwe (OCHA, Zimbabwe). For each province, the basic reproduction number () in periodic environment is estimated. To the best of our knowledge, this is probably a pioneering attempt to estimate in periodic environment using real-life data set of cholera epidemic for Zimbabwe. Our estimates of agree with the previous estimate for some provinces but differ significantly for Bulawayo, Mashonaland West, Manicaland, Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North. Seasonal trend in cholera incidence is observed in Harare, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland East, Manicaland and Matabeleland South. Our result suggests that, slow transmission is a dominating factor for cholera transmission in most of these provinces. Our model projects cholera cases and cholera deaths during the end of the epidemic in 2008–09 to January 1, 2012. We also determine an optimal cost-effective control strategy among the four government undertaken interventions namely promoting hand-hygiene & clean water distribution, vaccination, treatment and sanitation for each province.

Costs of illness due to cholera, costs of immunization and cost-effectiveness of an oral cholera mass vaccination campaign in Zanzibar

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) as a supplementary tool to conventional prevention of cholera. Dukoral, a killed whole-cell two-dose OCV, was used in a mass vaccination campaign in 2009 in Zanzibar. Public and private costs of illness (COI) due to endemic cholera and costs of the mass vaccination campaign were estimated to assess the cost-effectiveness of OCV for this particular campaign from both the health care provider and the societal perspective.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Public and private COI were obtained from interviews with local experts, with patients from three outbreaks and from reports and record review. Cost data for the vaccination campaign were collected based on actual expenditure and planned budget data. A static cohort of 50,000 individuals was examined, including herd protection. Primary outcome measures were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) per death, per case and per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. One-way sensitivity and threshold analyses were conducted. The ICER was evaluated with regard to WHO criteria for cost-effectiveness. Base-case ICERs were USD 750,000 per death averted, USD 6,000 per case averted and USD 30,000 per DALY averted, without differences between the health care provider and the societal perspective. Threshold analyses using Shanchol and assuming high incidence and case-fatality rate indicated that the purchase price per course would have to be as low as USD 1.2 to render the mass vaccination campaign cost-effective from a health care provider perspective (societal perspective: USD 1.3).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Based on empirical and site-specific cost and effectiveness data from Zanzibar, the 2009 mass vaccination campaign was cost-ineffective mainly due to the relatively high OCV purchase price and a relatively low incidence. However, mass vaccination campaigns in Zanzibar to control endemic cholera may meet criteria for cost-effectiveness under certain circumstances, especially in high-incidence areas and at OCV prices below USD 1.3.

Costs of illness due to endemic cholera

Economic analyses of cholera immunization programmes require estimates of the costs of cholera. The Diseases of the Most Impoverished programme measured the public, provider, and patient costs of culture-confirmed cholera in four study sites with endemic cholera using a combination of hospital- and community-based studies. Families with culture-proven cases were surveyed at home 7 and 14 days after confirmation of illness. Public costs were measured at local health facilities using a micro-costing methodology. Hospital-based studies found that the costs of severe cholera were US$32 and US$47 in Matlab and Beira. Community-based studies in North Jakarta and Kolkata found that cholera cases cost between US$28 and US$206, depending on hospitalization. Patients' cost of illness as a percentage of average monthly income were 21% and 65% for hospitalized cases in Kolkata and North Jakarta, respectively. This burden on families is not captured by studies that adopt a provider perspective.

Potential impact of reactive vaccination in controlling cholera outbreaks: an exploratory analysis using a Zimbabwean experience

BACKGROUND

To contain ongoing cholera outbreaks, the World Health Organization has suggested that reactive vaccination should be considered in addition to its previous control measures.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the potential impact of a hypothetical reactive oral cholera vaccination using the example of the recent large-scale cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis calculating the health and economic burden of the cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe with and without reactive vaccination. The primary outcome measure was incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted.

RESULTS

Under the base-case assumptions (assuming 50% coverage among individuals aged ≥2 years), reactive vaccination could have averted 1 320 deaths and 23 650 DALYs. Considering herd immunity, the corresponding values would have been 2 920 deaths and 52 360 DALYs averted. The total vaccination costs would have been ~$74 million and ~$21 million, respectively, with per-dose vaccine price of US$5 and $1. The incremental costs per DALY averted of reactive vaccination were $2 770 and $370, respectively, for vaccine price set at $5 and $1. Assuming herd immunity, the corresponding cost was $980 with vaccine price of $5, and the programme was cost-saving with a vaccine price of $1. Results were most sensitive to case-fatality rate, per-dose vaccine price, and the size of the outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

Reactive vaccination has the potential to be a cost-effective measure to contain cholera outbreaks in countries at high risk. However, the feasibility of implementation should be further evaluated, and caution is warranted in extrapolating the findings to different settings in the absence of other in-depth studies.

Cost-effectiveness of new-generation oral cholera vaccines: a multisite analysis

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a low-cost cholera vaccine licensed and used in Vietnam, using recently collected data from four developing countries where cholera is endemic. Our analysis incorporated new findings on vaccine herd protective effects.

METHODS

Using data from Matlab, Bangladesh, Kolkata, India, North Jakarta, Indonesia, and Beira, Mozambique, we calculated the net public cost per disability-adjusted life year avoided for three immunization strategies: 1) school-based vaccination of children 5 to 14 years of age; 2) school-based vaccination of school children plus use of the schools to vaccinate children aged 1 to 4 years; and 3) community-based vaccination of persons aged 1 year and older.

RESULTS

We determined cost-effectiveness when vaccine herd protection was or was not considered, and compared this with commonly accepted cutoffs of gross domestic product (GDP) per person to classify interventions as cost-effective or very-cost effective. Without including herd protective effects, deployment of this vaccine would be cost-effective only in school-based programs in Kolkata and Beira. In contrast, after considering vaccine herd protection, all three programs were judged very cost-effective in Kolkata and Beira. Because these cost-effectiveness calculations include herd protection, the results are dependent on assumed vaccination coverage rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Ignoring the indirect effects of cholera vaccination has led to underestimation of the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programs with oral cholera vaccines. Once these effects are included, use of the oral killed whole cell vaccine in programs to control endemic cholera meets the per capita GDP criterion in several developing country settings.

Effectiveness and economic analysis of the whole cell/recombinant B subunit (WC/rbs) inactivated oral cholera vaccine in the prevention of traveller's diarrhoea

BACKGROUND

Nowadays there is a debate about the indication of the oral whole-cell/recombinant B-subunit cholera vaccine (WC/rBS) in traveller's diarrhoea. However, a cost-benefit analysis based on real data has not been published.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit study of the oral cholera vaccine (WC/rBS), Dukoral for the prevention of traveller's diarrhoea (TD) was performed in subjects travelling to cholera risk areas. The effectiveness of WC/rBS vaccine in the prevention of TD was analyzed in 362 travellers attending two International Vaccination Centres in Spain between May and September 2005.

RESULTS

The overall vaccine efficacy against TD was 42,6%. Direct healthcare-related costs as well as indirect costs (lost vacation days) subsequent to the disease were considered. Preventive vaccination against TD resulted in a mean saving of 79.26 euro per traveller.

CONCLUSION

According to the cost-benefit analysis performed, the recommendation for WC/rBS vaccination in subjects travelling to zones at risk of TD is beneficial for the traveller, regardless of trip duration and visited continent.

Using private demand studies to calculate socially optimal vaccine subsidies in developing countries

Although it is well known that vaccines against many infectious diseases confer positive economic externalities via indirect protection, analysts have typically ignored possible herd protection effects in policy analyses of vaccination programs. Despite a growing literature on the economic theory of vaccine externalities and several innovative mathematical modeling approaches, there have been almost no empirical applications. The first objective of the paper is to develop a transparent, accessible economic framework for assessing the private and social economic benefits of vaccination. We also describe how stated preference studies (for example, contingent valuation and choice modeling) can be useful sources of economic data for this analytic framework. We demonstrate socially optimal policies using a graphical approach, starting with a standard textbook depiction of Pigouvian subsidies applied to herd protection from vaccination programs. We also describe nonstandard depictions that highlight some counterintuitive implications of herd protection that we feel are not commonly understood in the applied policy literature. We illustrate the approach using economic and epidemiological data from two neighborhoods in Kolkata, India. We use recently published epidemiological data on the indirect effects of cholera vaccination in Matlab, Bangladesh (Ali et al., 2005) for fitting a simple mathematical model of how protection changes with vaccine coverage. We use new data on costs and private demand for cholera vaccines in Kolkata, India, and approximate the optimal Pigouvian subsidy. We find that if the optimal subsidy is unknown, selling vaccines at full marginal cost may, under some circumstances, be a preferable second-best option to providing them for free.

Private demand for cholera vaccines in Hue, Vietnam

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to measure the private demand for oral cholera vaccines in Hue, Vietnam, an area of relatively low endemicity of cholera, using the contingent valuation method.

METHODS

Interviews were conducted with either the head of household or spouse in 800 randomly selected households with children less than 18 years old. Respondents were asked whether they would purchase an oral cholera vaccine with different levels of effectiveness and durations of effectiveness (both for themselves and for other household members) at a specified price.

RESULTS

The median respondent willingness to pay for 50% effective/3-year vaccine was estimated to be approximately $5, although 17% of the study sample would not pay for a cholera vaccine. The median economic benefit to a household of vaccinating all household members against cholera, as measured by its stated willingness to pay, was estimated to be $40 for a vaccine with these attributes.

CONCLUSIONS

The perceived private economic benefits of a cholera vaccine were high, but not evenly distributed across the population. A minority of the people in Hue place no value on receiving a cholera vaccine.

[Consumption of medications during the cholera epidemic in Douala, Cameroon (2004)]

To prepare for cholera outbreaks, stockpiles of supplies, rehydration salts/ solutions and appropriate antibiotics must be placed in strategic locations to ensure a prompt and effective response. However specific needs have not been evaluated up to now. The purpose of this report is to give an accurate account of medical supplies that were consumed during the cholera epidemic in Douala in 2004. Consumption of medication for the entire epidemic was measured by crosschecking data from the provincial pharmaceutical supply centre with the order forms, stock sheets and records of hospitals. Cost was calculated based on pricing data from the National Supply Center. For the 5 020 confirmed cases of cholera that were treated in the 14 hospitals in Douala from January to September 2004, consumption consisted of 499,746 doxycycline tablets, 235,881 amoxicilline tablets, 122,781 rehydration salt packets, and 60,217 units of Ringer Lactate (500 ml). The total cost of medications and consumables was 52,229,311 CFAF (approximately 80,000 Euro). Although updated recommendations are not available, comparison with the existing ones shows that the consumption levels observed were 5 times higher for both rehydration and antibiotherapy. The mean cost of treatment in Douala was 13 Euro per reported patient. This cost rose to 15 Euro if antibiotic prophylaxis was prescribed for all contacts. These findings can be useful in planning for future epidemics by allowing recommendations to be updated. We propose the follow supply levels for 50,000 inhabitants with an attack rate of 0.2%: 10,000 doxycycline tablets, 5000 amoxicilline tablets (500 mg), 2500 SRO packs (for 2500 liters) and 600 liters of Ringer Lactate.

[Social-economic expenditures for the liquidation of cholera in a big city]

While making a cost-assessment related with one cholera disease case, the authors suggest to take account of the damage inflicted on the health of patients with other pathologies (apart from cholera) by the failure to render them the ambulatory and hospital medical care, which results from that the medical staff at large focus primarily on curing the cholera patients and on that the hospital beds (otherwise used for somatic patients) are preferably allocated for patients with cholera at epidemic.

Efficiency of hospital cholera treatment in Ecuador

This study analyzed the efficiency of cholera treatment in three hospitals representative of the Ecuadorian public health system in order to provide hospital directors and administrators and health service policy-makers with information to plan responses to future epidemics and to reduce the costs of cholera treatment in general. For the study, total and excess cholera treatment costs were calculated using hospital files and statistics and an in-hospital surveillance system of the cholera cases. The type and quantity of each input used for each treatment were analyzed, as well as the number of days hospitalized, according to the severity of the illness. With this process, excess costs were determined in relation to a "treatment norm" that would have been appropriate for each patient. The researchers found that 45% of the cholera treatment costs were excessive. The most important contributor was excess recurrent costs (90%), including extended hospital stays, disproportionate use of intravenous rehydration solutions, and unnecessary laboratory tests. Excess capital costs, from land, buildings, and hospital equipment, represented 10% of the total excess treatment costs. No significant relationship was found between treatment costs and the severity of the illness, nor between costs and a patient's age. A patient's sex appeared to be an important variable, with the cost of treating women being notably higher than for men. An inverse relationship was found between treatment costs and the complexity of the hospital. The researchers concluded there was an inefficient use of resources in the treatment of cholera in the three hospitals where the research was performed.

Treatment and vaccination strategies to control cholera in sub-Saharan refugee settings: a cost-effectiveness analysis

CONTEXT

There is significant controversy about how best to control cholera epidemics in refugee settings. Specifically, there is marked disagreement about whether to use oral cholera vaccines in these settings, despite the improved safety and effectiveness profiles of these vaccines.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies, including vaccination, to control cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan refugee camps.

DESIGN

A cost-effectiveness analysis based on probabilities of cholera outcomes derived from epidemiologic data compiled for refugee settings in Malawi from 1987 through 1993; data for costs were obtained from a large relief agency that provides medical care in such settings.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A hypothetical refugee camp with 50000 persons in sub-Saharan Africa evaluated for a 2-year period.

INTERVENTIONS

We compared the costs and outcomes of alternative strategies in which appropriate rehydration therapy for cholera is introduced preemptively (at the establishment of a camp) or reactively (once an epidemic is recognized) and in which mass immunization with oral B subunit killed whole-cell (BS-WC) cholera vaccine is added to a rehydration program either preemptively or reactively.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost per cholera case prevented and cost per cholera death averted.

RESULTS

In a situation with no available rehydration therapy suitable for the management of severe cholera, a strategy of preemptive therapy ($320 per death averted) costs less and is more effective than a strategy of reactive therapy ($586 per death averted). Adding vaccination to preemptive therapy is expensive: $1745 per additional death averted for preemptive vaccination and $3833 per additional death averted for reactive vaccination. However, if the cost of vaccine falls below $0.22 per dose, strategies combining vaccination and preemptive therapy become more cost-effective than therapy alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Provision for managing cholera outbreaks at the inception of a refugee camp (preemptive therapy) is the most cost-effective strategy for controlling cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan refugee settings. Should the price of BS-WC cholera vaccine fall below $0.22 per dose, however, supplementation of preemptive therapy with mass vaccination will become a cost-effective option.

A cost-benefit analysis of programmatic use of CVD 103-HgR live oral cholera vaccine in a high-risk population

BACKGROUND

Cholera spread to Latin America in 1991; subsequently, cholera vaccination was considered as an interim intervention until long-term solutions involving improved water supplies and sanitation could be introduced. Three successive summer cholera outbreaks in northern Argentina and the licensing of the new single-dose oral cholera vaccine, CVD 103-HgR, raised questions of the cost and benefit of using this new vaccine.

METHODS

This study explored the potential benefits to the Argentine Ministry of Health of treatment costs averted, versus the costs of vaccination with CVD 103-HgR in the relatively confined population of northern Argentina affected by the cholera outbreaks. Water supplies and sanitation in this area are poor but a credible infrastructure for vaccine delivery exists.

RESULTS

In our cost-benefit model of a 3-year period (1992-1994) with an annual incidence of 2.5 case-patients per 1000 population and assumptions of vaccine efficacy of 75% and coverage of 75%, vaccination of targeted high risk groups would prevent 1265 cases.

CONCLUSION

Assuming a cost of US$602 per treated case and of US$1.50 per dose of vaccine, the total discounted savings from use of vaccine in the targeted groups would be US$132,100. The projected savings would be altered less by vaccine coverage (range 75-90%) or efficacy (60-85%) changes than by disease incidence changes. Our analysis underestimated the true costs of cholera in Argentina because we included only medical expenditures; Indirect losses to trade and tourism had the greatest economic impact. However, vaccination with CVD 103-HgR was still cost-beneficial in the base case.

Twelve messages from enteric infections for science and society

Diarrheal diseases hold profound messages as well as opportunities that range from public health to basic science. From the spread of cholera around the world, we are reminded of the global impact of tropical diseases, that disease may provide a litmus test for poverty to drive a sanitary revolution, that disease spread may be worsened by political denial, and that many ecologic and epidemiologic secrets such as interepidemic microbial niches remain poorly understood. Diarrheal diseases other than cholera teach us that heavy disease burdens do not control population growth but are associated with population overgrowth (i.e., improved health is key to controlling the population explosion), the societal impact of diarrhea morbidity may exceed even that of its mortality, that new agents continue to emerge, and that nosocomial diarrhea is an underrecognized threat in our hospitals. Finally, from the laboratory of the developing world also come messages for basic science. Microbial toxins continue to elucidate a new understanding of cell signaling, and mechanisms once thought to be clear (such as that of cholera toxin) now appear much more complex. Traditional remedies hold new pharmacologic secrets, e.g., such as gingko extracts that inhibit platelet-activating factor. Finally, from basic physiology can come widely applicable practical solutions such as oral rehydration therapy and simplified diagnostics for inflammatory diarrhea. Health problems such as diarrheal diseases that plague the disadvantaged are linked to population overgrowth and provide some of the greatest challenges to modern science and the industrialized world.

Cholera vaccination: a decision analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine the clinical impact and financial cost of a vaccination program for the prevention of cholera in North Americans travelling to endemic and epidemic regions by means of the principles of decision analysis and a decision tree as well as to illustrate the effect of case attack rates on the cost per case prevented by vaccination.

DESIGN

Review of the scientific literature to establish the probabilities of each significant outcome as well as a decision analysis and partial economic evaluation.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Clinical impact (attack rates for cholera among vaccinated and nonvaccinated travellers), rates of death associated with cholera and vaccine-associated adverse events (VAAEs), and the number of VAAEs and the vaccine cost per case prevented.

MAIN RESULTS

On the basis of our assumptions (including a rate of one case of cholera per 500,000 journeys to endemic regions), to prevent one case of cholera a vaccination program would cost $28.67 million and be associated with 105 VAAEs.

CONCLUSION

Routine vaccination of travellers to endemic areas cannot be recommended; however, for people travelling to regions with a high transmission rate vaccination should be considered.

Reduction of enteric infectious disease in rural China by providing deep-well tap water

Enteric infectious disease (EID), defined here as bacillary dysentery, viral hepatitis A, El Tor cholera, or acute watery diarrhoea, is an important public health problem in most developing countries. This study assessed the impact on EID of providing deep-well tap water (DWTW) through household taps in rural China. For this purpose, we compared the incidence of EID in six study villages (population, 10,290) in Qidong County that had DWTW with that in six control villages (population 9397) that had only surface water. Both the bacterial counts and chemical properties of the DWTW met established hygiene standards for drinking water. The incidence of EID in the study region was 38.6% lower than in the control region; however, the introduction of DWTW supplies did not significantly affect the incidence of bacillary dysentery. These results indicate that the construction and use of DWTW systems with household taps is associated with decreased incidences of El Tor cholera, viral hepatitis A, and acute watery diarrhoea. Since high construction costs have led many authorities to question the value of DWTW, we carried out a cost-benefit analysis of the programme. The cost of constructing a DWTW system averaged US $36,000 at 1983 prices, or US $10.50 per capita. The combined capital and operating costs of a DWTW system were US $1.46 per capita per annum over its 20-year estimated life. The benefits derived from reductions in cost of illness and savings in time to fetch water were 2.2 times the costs at present values Capital outlays were recouped in a 3.6-year payback period and the provision of DWTW proved highly beneficial in both economic and social terms.