Future health expenditure in the BRICS countries: a forecasting analysis for 2035

BACKGROUND

Accelerated globalization especially in the late 1980s has provided opportunities for economic progress in the world of emerging economies. The BRICS nations' economies are distinguishable from other emerging economies due to their rate of expansion and sheer size. As a result of their economic prosperity, health spending in the BRICS countries has been increasing. However, health security is still a distant dream in these countries due to low public health spending, lack of pre-paid health coverage, and heavy out-of-pocket spending. There is a need for changing the health expenditure composition to address the challenge of regressive health spending and ensure equitable access to comprehensive healthcare services.

OBJECTIVE

Present study examined the health expenditure trend among the BRICS from 2000 to 2019 and made predictions with an emphasis on public, pre-paid, and out-of-pocket expenditures for 2035.

METHODS

Health expenditure data for 2000-2019 were taken from the OECD iLibrary database. The exponential smoothing model in R software (ets ()) was used for forecasting.

RESULTS

Except for India and Brazil, all of the BRICS countries show a long-term increase in per capita PPP health expenditure. Only India's health expenditure is expected to decrease as a share of GDP after the completion of the SDG years. China accounts for the steepest rise in per capita expenditure until 2035, while Russia is expected to achieve the highest absolute values.

CONCLUSION

The BRICS countries have the potential to be important leaders in a variety of social policies such as health. Each BRICS country has set a national pledge to the right to health and is working on health system reforms to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). The estimations of future health expenditures by these emerging market powers should help policymakers decide how to allocate resources to achieve this goal.

Environmental Pollution Liability Insurance of Health Risk and Corporate Environmental Performance: Evidence From China

Environmental pollution liability insurance (EPLI) is a type of insurance purchased by an enterprise to compensate the loss of the victims in the event of an environmental pollution incident. Although EPLI can realize the post-treatment of environmental pollution to a certain extent, there is still less understanding of whether EPLI can improve the environmental performance of enterprises. This study takes A-share listed companies in heavily polluting industries as the research object, determines the treatment group samples according to the Insurance coverage list published by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2014 and 2015, and then constructs the empirical test model. In order to ensure that there is no sample selection bias, the PSM method is used to preprocess the samples in this study to ensure the robustness of the conclusions. The empirical tests show that EPLI can significantly improve corporate environmental performance. Further analysis showed that higher public visibility is conducive to the positive environmental effects of EPLI. Compared with state-owned enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises have more significant implementation effects after introducing EPLI. On further examination, the result indicates that environmental pollution liability insurance can improve environmental performance by alleviating corporate financing constraints. The findings of this paper enrich the theory of the economic impact of environmental pollution liability insurance, which has some meaningful theoretical guidance for enterprises and policy makers.

Future health spending forecast in leading emerging BRICS markets in 2030: health policy implications

Background

The leading emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) are increasingly shaping the landscape of the global health sector demand and supply for medical goods and services. BRICS’ share of global health spending and future projections will play a prominent role during the 2020s. The purpose of the current research was to examine the decades-long underlying historical trends in BRICS countries’ health spending and explore these data as the grounds for reliable forecasting of their health expenditures up to 2030.

Methods

BRICS’ health spending data spanning 1995–2017 were extracted from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Financing Global Health 2019 database. Total health expenditure, government, prepaid private and out-of-pocket spending per capita and gross domestic product (GDP) share of total health spending were forecasted for 2018–2030. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to obtain future projections based on time series analysis.

Results

Per capita health spending in 2030 is projected to be as follows: Brazil, $1767 (95% prediction interval [PI] 1615, 1977); Russia, $1933 (95% PI 1549, 2317); India, $468 (95% PI 400.4, 535); China, $1707 (95% PI 1079, 2334); South Africa, $1379 (95% PI 755, 2004). Health spending as a percentage of GDP in 2030 is projected as follows: Brazil, 8.4% (95% PI 7.5, 9.4); Russia, 5.2% (95% PI 4.5, 5.9); India, 3.5% (95% PI 2.9%, 4.1%); China, 5.9% (95% PI 4.9, 7.0); South Africa, 10.4% (95% PI 5.5, 15.3).

Conclusions

All BRICS countries show a long-term trend towards increasing their per capita spending in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). India and Russia are highly likely to maintain stable total health spending as a percentage of GDP until 2030. China, as a major driver of global economic growth, will be able to significantly expand its investment in the health sector across an array of indicators. Brazil is the only large nation whose health expenditure as a percentage of GDP is about to contract substantially during the third decade of the twenty-first century. The steepest curve of increased per capita spending until 2030 seems to be attributable to India, while Russia should achieve the highest values in absolute terms. Health policy implications of long-term trends in health spending indicate the need for health technology assessment dissemination among the BRICS ministries of health and national health insurance funds. Matters of cost-effective allocation of limited resources will remain a core challenge in 2030 as well.

Analysis and Forecasting Incidence, Intensive Care Unit Admissions, and Projected Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in Portugal, the UK, Germany, Italy, and France: Predictions for 4 Weeks Ahead

The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a great contribution to medical studies since the application of forecasting concepts allows for the analysis of future diseases propagation. In this context, this paper presents a study of the new coronavirus SARS-COV-2 with a focus on verifying the virus propagation associated with mitigation procedures and massive vaccination campaigns. There were two proposed methodologies in making predictions 28 days ahead for the number of new cases, deaths, and ICU patients of five European countries: Portugal, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany. A case study of the results of massive immunization in Israel was also considered. The data input of cases, deaths, and daily ICU patients was normalized to reduce discrepant numbers due to the countries' size and the cumulative vaccination values by the percentage of population immunized (with at least one dose of the vaccine). As a comparative criterion, the calculation of the mean absolute error (MAE) of all predictions presents the best methodology, targeting other possibilities of use for the method proposed. The best architecture achieved a general MAE for the 1-to-28-day ahead forecast, which is lower than 30 cases, 0.6 deaths, and 2.5 ICU patients per million people.

Corona-Triggered Global Macroeconomic Crisis of the Early 2020s

Long-lasting economic recessions spreading from initial cradle markets worldwide should be a periodic event inherent to capitalism as a prevailing socio-economic model [...].

Predictors of (in)efficiencies of Healthcare Expenditure Among the Leading Asian Economies - Comparison of OECD and Non-OECD Nations

Purpose

The goal of this study was to assess the effectiveness of healthcare spending among the leading Asian economies.

Methods

We have selected a total of nine Asian nations, based on the strength of their economic output and long-term real GDP growth rates. The OECD members included Japan and the Republic of Korea, while the seven non-OECD nations were China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand. Healthcare systems efficiency was analyzed over the period 1996–2017. To assess the effectiveness of healthcare expenditure of each group of countries, the two-way fixed effects model (country- and year effects) was used.

Results

Quality of governance and current health expenditure determine healthcare system performance. Population density and urbanization are positively associated with a healthy life expectancy in the non-OECD Asian countries. In this group, unsafe water drinking has a statistically negative effect on healthy life expectancy. Interestingly, only per capita consumption of carbohydrates is significantly linked with healthy life expectancy. In these non-OECD Asian countries, unsafe water drinking and per capita carbon dioxide emissions increase infant mortality. There is a strong negative association between GDP per capita and infant mortality in both sub-samples, although its impact is far larger in the OECD group. In Japan and South Korea, unemployment is negatively associated with infant mortality.

Conclusion

Japan outperforms other countries from the sample in major healthcare performance indicators, while South Korea is ranked second. The only exception is per capita carbon dioxide emissions, which have maximal values in the Republic of Korea and Japan. Non-OECD nations’ outcomes were led by China, as the largest economy. This group was characterized with substantial improvement in efficiency of health spending since the middle of the 1990s. Yet, progress was noted with remarkable heterogeneity within the group.

Real GDP growth rates and healthcare spending - comparison between the G7 and the EM7 countries

Background

Accelerated globalisation has substantially contributed to the rise of emerging markets worldwide. The G7 and Emerging Markets Seven (EM7) behaved in significantly different macroeconomic ways before, during, and after the 2008 Global Crisis. Average real GDP growth rates remained substantially higher among the EM7, while unemployment rates changed their patterns after the crisis. Since 2017, however, approximately one half of the worldwide economic growth is attributable to the EM7, and only a quarter to the G7. This paper aims to analyse the association between the health spending and real GDP growth in the G7 and the EM7 countries.

Results

In terms of GDP growth, the EM7 exhibited a higher degree of resilience during the 2008 crisis, compared to the G7. Unemployment in the G7 nations was rising significantly, compared to pre-recession levels, but, in the EM7, it remained traditionally high. In the G7, the austerity (measured as a percentage of GDP) significantly decreased the public health expenditure, even more so than in the EM7. Out-of-pocket health expenditure grew at a far more concerning pace in the EM7 compared to the G7 during the crisis, exposing the vulnerability of households living close to the poverty line. Regression analysis demonstrated that, in the G7, real GDP growth had a positive impact on out-of-pocket expenditure, measured as a percentage of current health expenditure, expressed as a percentage of GDP (CHE). In the EM7, it negatively affected CHE, CHE per capita, and out-of-pocket expenditure per capita.

Conclusion

The EM7 countries demonstrated stronger endurance, withstanding the consequences of the crisis as compared to the G7 economies. Evidence of this was most visible in real growth and unemployment rates, before, during and after the crisis. It influenced health spending patterns in both groups, although they tended to diverge instead of converge in several important areas.

The impact of health expenditures on public health in BRICS nations

•Experiencing a rapid economic growth, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS nations) are now confronting a growing aging population and an increasing prevalence of noncommunicable diseases.•The health care spending share of the economy in the BRICS nations is growing and constitutes an important part of governmental efforts to address population health and health care systems.•Even with the growth in health expenditures, there remains a significant challenge in balancing the need for promoting public health, controlling noncommunicable diseases, and improving population health in these emerging economies.•BRICS nations have a great potential for embracing a public health agenda aimed at promoting physical activity and healthy lifestyles as part of the BRICS public health policies in order to improve population health and reduce the burden of noncommunicable diseases.

Comparative financing analysis and political economy of noncommunicable diseases

The pandemic of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) poses substantial challenges to the health financing sustainability in high-income and low/middle income countries (LMICs). The aim of this review is to identify the bottle neck inefficiencies in NCDs attributable spending and propose sustainable health financing solutions. The World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the "best buy" concept to scale up the core intervention package against NCDs targeted for LMICs. Population- and individual-based NCD best buy interventions are projected at US$170 billion over 2011-2025. Appropriately designed health financing arrangements can be powerful enablers to scale up the NCD best buys. Rapidly developing emerging nations dominate the landscape of LMICs. Their capability and willingness to invest resources for eradicating NCDs could strengthen WHO outreach efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, much beyond current capacities. There has been a declining trend in international donor aid intended to cope with NCDs over the past decade. There is also a serious misalignment of these resources with the actual needs of recipient countries. Globally, the momentum towards the financing of intersectoral actions is growing, and this presents a cost-effective solution. A budget discrepancy of 10:1 in WHO and multilateral agencies remains in donor aid in favour of communicable diseases compared to NCDs. LMICs are likely to remain a bottleneck of NCDs imposed financing sustainability challenge in the long-run. Catastrophic household health expenditure from out of pocket spending on NCDs could plunge almost 150 million people into poverty worldwide. This epidemiological burden coupled with population ageing presents an exceptionally serious sustainability challenge, even among the richest countries which are members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Strategic and political leadership of WHO and multilateral agencies would likely play essential roles in the struggle that has just begun.

Population aging and migration - history and UN forecasts in the EU-28 and its east and south near neighborhood - one century perspective 1950-2050

BACKGROUND

There is a gap in knowledge on long term pace of population aging acceleration and related net-migration rate changes in WHO European Region and its adjacent MENA countries. We decided to compare European Union (EU-28) region with the EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South in terms of these two essential features of third demographic transition. One century long perspective dating back to both historical data and towards reliable future forecasts was observed.

METHODS

United Nation's Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimates on indicators of population aging and migration were observed. Time horizon adopted was 1950-2050. Targeted 44 countries belong to either one of three regions named by EU diplomacy as: European Union or EU-28, EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East (ENP East) and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South (ENP South).

RESULTS

European Union region currently experiences most advanced stage of demographic aging. The latter one is the ENP East region dominated by Slavic nations whose fertility decline continues since the USSR Era back in late 1980s. ENP South region dominated by Arab League nations remains rather young compared to their northern counterparts. However, as the Third Demographic Transition is inevitably coming to these societies they remain the spring of youth and positive net emigration rate. Probably the most prominent change will be the extreme fall of total fertility rate (children per woman) in ENP South countries (dominantly Arab League) from 6.72 back in 1950 to medium-scenario forecasted 2.10 in 2050. In the same time net number of migrants in the EU28 (both sexes combined) will grow from - 91,000 in 1950 to + 394,000 in 2050.

CONCLUSIONS

Long term migration from Eastern Europe westwards and from MENA region northwards is historically present for many decades dating back deep into the Cold War Era. Contemporary large-scale migrations outsourcing from Arab League nations towards rich European Protestant North is probably the peak of an iceberg in long migration routes history. However, in the decades to come acceleration of aging is likely to question sustainability of such movements of people.

Within the triangle of healthcare legacies: comparing the performance of South-Eastern European health systems

OBJECTIVE

Inter-regional comparison of health-reform outcomes in south-eastern Europe (SEE).

METHODS

Macro-indicators were obtained from the WHO Health for All Database. Inter-regional comparison among post-Semashko, former Yugoslavia, and prior-1989-free-market SEE economies was conducted.

RESULTS

United Nations Development Program Human Development Index growth was strongest among prior-free-market SEE, followed by former Yugoslavia and post-Semashko. Policy cuts to hospital beds and nursing-staff capacities were highest in post-Semashko. Physician density increased the most in prior-free-market SEE. Length of hospital stay was reduced in most countries; frequency of outpatient visits and inpatient discharges doubled in prior-free-market SEE. Fertility rates fell for one third in Post-Semashko and prior-free-market SEE. Crude death rates slightly decreased in prior-free-market-SEE and post-Semashko, while growing in the former Yugoslavia region. Life expectancy increased by 4 years on average in all regions; prior-free-market SEE achieving the highest longevity. Childhood and maternal mortality rates decreased throughout SEE, while post-Semashko countries recorded the most progress.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant differences in healthcare resources and outcomes were observed among three historical health-policy legacies in south-eastern Europe. These different routes towards common goals created a golden opportunity for these economies to learn from each other.

The New and Old Europe: East-West Split in Pharmaceutical Spending

HIGHLIGHTS

Since the geopolitical developments of 1989, former centrally planned economies of Eastern Europe followed distinctively different pathways in national pharmaceutical expenditure evolution as compared to their free market Western European counterparts.

Long term spending on pharmaceuticals expressed as percentage of total health expenditure was falling in free market economies as of 1989. Back in early 1990s it was at higher levels in transitional Eastern European countries and actually continued to grow further.

Public financing share of total pharmaceutical expenditure was steadily falling in most Central and Eastern European countries over the recent few decades. Opposed scenario were EU-15 countries which successfully increased their public funding of prescription medicines for the sake of their citizens.

Pace of annual increase in per capita spending on medicines in PPP terms, was at least 20% faster in Eastern Europe compared to their Western counterparts. During the same years, CEE region was expanding their pharmaceuticals share of health spending in eight fold faster annual rate compared to the EU 15.

Private and out-of-pocket expenditure became dominant in former socialist countries. Affordability issues coupled with growing income inequality in transitional economies will present a serious challenge to equitable provision and sustainable financing of pharmaceuticals in the long run.

Do Health Reforms Impact Cost Consciousness of Health Care Professionals? Results from a Nation-Wide Survey in the Balkans

BACKGROUND

Serbia, as the largest market of the Western Balkans, has entered socioeconomic transition with substantial delay compared to most of Eastern Europe. Its health system reform efforts were bold during the past 15 years, but their results were inconsistent in various areas. The two waves of global recession that hit Balkan economies ultimately reflected to the financial situation of healthcare. Serious difficulties in providing accessible medical care to the citizens became a reality. A large part of the unbearable expenses actually belongs to the overt prescription of pharmaceuticals and various laboratory and imaging diagnostic procedures requested by physicians. Therefore, a broad national survey was conducted at all levels of the healthcare system hierarchy to distinguish the ability of cost containment strategies to reshape clinician's mindsets and decision-making in practice.

AIMS

Assessment of healthcare professionals' judgment on economic consequences of prescribed medical interventions and evaluation of responsiveness of healthcare professionals to policy measures targeted at increasing cost-consciousness.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted through a hierarchy of medical facilities across diverse geographical regions before and after policy action, from January 2010 to April 2013. In the middle of the observed period, the National Health Insurance Fund (RFZO) adopted severe cost-containment measures. Independently, pharmacoeconomic guidelines targeted at prescribers were disseminated. Administration in large hospitals and community pharmacies was forced to restrict access to high budget-impact medical care. Economic Awareness of Healthcare Professionals Questionnaire-29 (EAHPQ-29), developed in Serbian language, was used in face-to-face interviews. The questionnaire documented clinician's attitudes on: Clinical-Decision-Making-between-Alternative-Interventions (CDMAI), Quality-of-Health-Care (QHC), and Cost-Containment-Policy (CCP). The authors randomly and anonymously recruited 2000 healthcare experts, with a total of 1487 responding; after eliminating incomplete surveys, 649 participants were considered before and 651 after policy intervention.

RESULTS

Dentists (1.195±0.560) had a higher mean CDMAI score compared to physicians (1.017±0.453). The surgical group compared to the internist group had a higher total EAHPQ-29 score, CCP score and CDMAI score. Policy intervention had a statistically significant negative impact on the QHC score (F=4.958; df=1; p=0.027). There was no substantial impact of policy interventions on professional behavior and judgment with regard to the CDMAI, CCP, and total EAHPQ-29 scores.

CONCLUSION

Although cost savings were forcibly imposed in practice, the effects on clinical decision-making were modest. Clinicians' perceptions of quality of medical care were explained in a less effective manner due to the severely constrained resources allocated to the providers. This pioneering effort in the Balkans exposes the inefficiency of current policies to expand clinicians' cost consciousness.

Comparison of historical medical spending patterns among the BRICS and G7

OBJECTIVE

The past few decades have been marked by a bold increase in national health spending across the globe. Rather successful health reforms in leading emerging markets such as BRICS reveal a reshaping of their medical care-related expenditures. There is a scarcity of evidence explaining differences in long-term medical spending patterns between top ranked G7 traditional welfare economies and the BRICS nations.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study was conducted on a longitudinal WHO Global Health Expenditure data-set based on the National Health Accounts (NHA) system. Data were presented in a simple descriptive manner, pointing out health expenditure dynamics and differences between the two country groups (BRICS and G7) and individual nations in a 1995-2013 time horizon.

RESULTS

Average total per capita health spending still remains substantially higher among G7 (4747 Purchase Power Parity (PPP) $PPP in 2013) compared to the BRICS (1004 $PPP in 2013) nations. The percentage point share of G7 in global health expenditure (million current PPP international $US) has been falling constantly since 1995 (from 65% in 1995 to 53.2% in 2013), while in BRICS nations it grew (from 10.7% in 1995 to 20.2% in 2013). Chinese national level medical spending exceeded significantly that of all G7 members except the US in terms of current $PPP in 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

Within a limited time horizon of only 19 years it appears that the share of global medical spending by the leading emerging markets has been growing steadily. Simultaneously, the world's richest countries' global share has been falling constantly, although it continues to dominate the landscape. If the contemporary global economic mainstream continues, the BRICS per capita will most likely reach or exceed the OECD average in future decades. Rising out-of-pocket expenses threatening affordability of medical care to poor citizens among the BRICS nations and a too low percentage of GDP in India remain the most notable setbacks of these developments.

Community-acquired pneumonia: economics of inpatient medical care vis-à-vis clinical severity

Objective:

To assess the direct and indirect costs of diagnosing and treating community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), correlating those costs with CAP severity at diagnosis and identifying the major cost drivers.

Methods:

This was a prospective cost analysis study using bottom-up costing. Clinical severity and mortality risk were assessed with the pneumonia severity index (PSI) and the mental Confusion-Urea-Respiratory rate-Blood pressure-age ≥ 65 years (CURB-65) scale, respectively. The sample comprised 95 inpatients hospitalized for newly diagnosed CAP. The analysis was run from a societal perspective with a time horizon of one year.

Results:

Expressed as mean ± standard deviation, in Euros, the direct and indirect medical costs per CAP patient were 696 ± 531 and 410 ± 283, respectively, the total per-patient cost therefore being 1,106 ± 657. The combined budget impact of our patient cohort, in Euros, was 105,087 (66,109 and 38,979 in direct and indirect costs, respectively). The major cost drivers, in descending order, were the opportunity cost (lost productivity); diagnosis and treatment of comorbidities; and administration of medications, oxygen, and blood derivatives. The CURB-65 and PSI scores both correlated with the indirect costs of CAP treatment. The PSI score correlated positively with the overall frequency of use of health care services. Neither score showed any clear relationship with the direct costs of CAP treatment.

Conclusions:

Clinical severity at admission appears to be unrelated to the costs of CAP treatment. This is mostly attributable to unwarranted hospital admission (or unnecessarily long hospital stays) in cases of mild pneumonia, as well as to over-prescription of antibiotics. Authorities should strive to improve adherence to guidelines and promote cost-effective prescribing practices among physicians in southeastern Europe.

Radiation therapy remains the key cost driver of oncology inpatient treatment

OBJECTIVE

Current radiation therapy capacities in Serbia and most of Eastern Europe are heavily lagging behind population needs. The primary study aim was assessment of direct costs of cancer medical care for patients suffering from cancer with assigned radiotherapy-based treatment protocols. Identification of key cost drivers and trends during 2010-2013 comparing brachytherapy and teleradiotherapy was a secondary objective of the study.

METHODS

Retrospective, bottom-up database analysis was conducted on electronic discharge invoices. Payer's perspective has been adopted with a 1-year long time horizon. Total sample size was 2544 patients during a 4-years long observation period (2010-2013). The sample consisted of all patients with confirmed malignancy disorder receiving inpatient radiation therapy in a large university hospital.

RESULTS

Diagnostics and treatment cost of cancer in the largest Western Balkans market of Serbia were heavily dominated by radiation therapy related direct medical costs. Total costs of care as well as mean cost per patient were steadily decreasing due to budget cuts caused by global recession. The paradox is that at the same time the budget share of radiotherapy increased for almost 15% and in value-based terms for €109 per patient (in total €109,330). Second ranked cost drivers were nursing care and imaging diagnostics. Costs of high-tech visualizing examinations were heavily dominated by nuclear medicine tests.

CONCLUSION

The budget impact of radiation oncology to the large tertiary care university clinics of the Balkans is likely to remain significant in the future. Brachytherapy exhibited a slow growth pattern, while teleradiotherapy remained stable in terms of value-based turnover of medical services. Upcoming heavy investment into the national network of radiotherapy facilities will emphasize the unsatisfied needs. Huge contemporary budget share of radiotherapy coupled with rising cancer prevalence brings this issue into the hot spot of the ongoing cost containment efforts by local governments.

LAT software induced savings on medical costs of alcohol addicts' care--results from a matched-pairs case-control study

Lesch Alcoholism Typology (LAT) is one of the most widely used clinical typologies of alcohol addiction. Study tested whether introduction of LAT software in clinical practice leaded to improved outcomes and reduced costs. Retrospective matched-pairs case-control cost comparison study was conducted at the Regional Addiction Center of the University Clinic in Serbia involving 250 patients during the four-year period. Mean relapse frequency followed by outpatient detoxification was 0.42 ± 0.90 vs. 0.70 ± 1.66 (LAT/non-LAT; p = 0.267). Adding relapses after inpatient treatment total mean-number of relapses per patient was 0.70 ± 1.74 vs. 0.97 ± 1.89 (LAT/non-LAT; p = 0.201). However, these relapse frequency differentials were not statistically significant. Total hospital costs of Psychiatry clinic based non-LAT addicts' care (€ 54,660) were significantly reduced to € 36,569 after initiation of LAT. Mean total cost per patient was reduced almost by half after initiation of LAT based treatment: € 331 ± 381 vs. € 626 ± 795 (LAT/non-LAT; p = 0.001). Mean cost of single psychiatry clinic admission among non-LAT treatment group was € 320 ± 330 (CI 95% 262-378) and among LAT € 197 ± 165 (CI 95% 168-226) (p = 0.019). Mean LAT software induced net savings on psychiatric care costs were € 144 per patient. Total net savings on hospital care including F10 associated somatic co-morbidities amounted to € 295 per patient. More sensitive diagnostic assessment and sub-type specific pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy following implementation of LAT software lead to significant savings on costs of hospital care.

Assessment of viral genotype impact to the cost-effectiveness and overall costs of care for PEG-interferon-2α + ribavirine treated chronic hepatitis C patients

BACKGROUND

Pegylated interferon alfa plus ribavirin protocol is currently considered the most efficient hepatitis C treatment. However, no evidence of costs comparison among common viral genotypes has been published.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess core drivers of hepatitis C medical care costs and compare cost effectiveness of this treatment among patients infected by hepatitis C virus with genotypes 1 or 4 (group I), and 2 or 3 (group II).

PATIENTS AND MATERIALS

Prospective bottom-up cost-effectiveness analysis from societal perspective was conducted at Infectious Diseases Clinic, University Clinic Kragujevac, Serbia, from 2007 to 2010. There were 81 participants with hepatitis C infection, treated with peg alpha-2a interferon plus ribavirin for 48 or 24 weeks. Economic data acquired were direct inpatient medical costs, outpatient drug acquisition costs, and indirect costs calculated through human capital approach.

RESULTS

Total costs were significantly higher (P = 0.035) in group I (mean ± SD: 12,751.54 ± 5,588.06) compared to group II (mean ± SD: 10,580.57 ± 3,973.02). In addition, both direct (P = 0.039) and indirect (P < 0.001) costs separately were significantly higher in group I compared to group II. Separate comparison within direct costs revealed higher total cost of medical care (P = 0.024) in first compared to second genotype group, while the similar tendency was observed for total drug acquisition (P = 0.072).

CONCLUSION

HCV genotypes 1 and 4 cause more severe clinical course require more care and thus incur higher expenses compared to HCV 2 and 3 genotypes. Policy makers should consider willingness to pay threshold differentially depending upon HCV viral genotype detected.