1
|
Celebi D, Celebi O, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A, Baser S, Aydın E, Calina D, Charvalos E, Docea AO, Tsatsakis A, Mezhuev Y, Yildirim S. Activity of zinc oxide and zinc borate nanoparticles against resistant bacteria in an experimental lung cancer model. Daru 2024; 32:197-206. [PMID: 38366078 PMCID: PMC11087447 DOI: 10.1007/s40199-024-00505-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 02/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Recent research indicates a prevalence of typical lung infections, such as pneumonia, in lung cancer patients. Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii stand out as antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Given this, there is a growing interest in alternative therapeutic avenues. Boron and zinc derivatives exhibit antimicrobial, antiviral, and antifungal properties. OBJECTIVES This research aimed to establish the effectiveness of ZnO and ZB NPs in combating bacterial infections in lung cancer cell lines. METHODS Initially, this study determined the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) and fractional inhibitory concentration (FIC) of zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnO NPs) and zinc borate (ZB) on chosen benchmark strains. Subsequent steps involved gauging treatment success through a lung cancer-bacteria combined culture and immunohistochemical analysis. RESULTS The inhibitory impact of ZnO NPs on bacteria was charted as follows: 0.97 µg/mL for K. pneumoniae 700603, 1.95 µg/mL for P. aeruginosa 27853, and 7.81 µg/mL for Acinetobacter baumannii 19,606. In comparison, the antibacterial influence of zinc borate was measured as 7.81 µg/mL for Klebsiella pneumoniae 700603 and 500 µg/mL for both P. aeruginosa 27853 and A.baumannii 19606. After 24 h, the cytotoxicity of ZnO NPs and ZB was analyzed using the MTT technique. The lowest cell viability was marked in the 500 µg/mL ZB NPs group, with a viability rate of 48.83% (P < 0.001). However, marked deviations appeared at ZB concentrations of 61.5 µg/mL (P < 0.05) and ZnO NPs at 125 µg/mL. CONCLUSION A synergistic microbial inhibitory effect was observed when ZnO NP and ZB were combined against the bacteria under investigation.
Collapse
|
2
|
Genc S, Cicek B, Yeni Y, Kuzucu M, Hacimuftuoglu A, Bolat I, Yildirim S, Zaker H, Zachariou A, Sofikitis N, Mamoulakis C, Tsatsakis A, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A. Morinda citrifolia protective effects on paclitaxel-induced testis parenchyma toxicity: an experimental study. Reprod Toxicol 2024:108611. [PMID: 38782144 DOI: 10.1016/j.reprotox.2024.108611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2024] [Revised: 05/12/2024] [Accepted: 05/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
The current study aimed to investigate the sensitivity of male testis parenchyma cells to chemotherapy agents and the protective effects and mechanisms of Morinda citrifolia (Noni) administration against structural and functional changes before and after chemotherapy (Paclitaxel (PTX)). For this purpose, rats were randomly assigned into four groups (Control= G1, PTX 5mg/kg= G2; PTX + Noni 10mg/kg = G3, PTX + Noni 20mg/kg = G4). PTX was injected intraperitoneally for 4 consecutive weeks, at a dose of 5mg/kg to all groups except the control group. Then noni was administrated in 10 (G3) and 20 (G4) mg/kg groups orally (gavage) for 14 days. Biochemical analyses, Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR), and immunohistochemical analyses were performed. According to our results, Total Oxidative Stress (TOS) and Malondialdehyde (MDA) were significantly increased in the PTX group (P<0.01). Superoxide Dismutase (SOD) enzyme activity and Total Antioxidant Capacity (TAC) levels were decreased (P<0.01). The changes in the rats treated with PTX + Noni 20mg/kg were noteworthy. The increased levels of IL1-β (Interleukin 1 beta) and TNFα (tumor necrosis factor-alpha) with PTX were down-regulated after treatment with PTX + Noni 20mg/kg (P<0.01) (9% and 5% respectively). In addition, Noni restored the testicular histopathological structure by reducing caspase-3 expression and significantly (61%) suppressed oxidative DNA damage and apoptosis (by regulating the Bax (bcl-2-like protein 4)/Bcl-2 (B-cell lymphoma gene-2) ratio). In conclusion, Noni reduced cellular apoptosis and drastically changed Caspase 8 and Bax/Bcl-2 levels. Furthermore, it considerably decreases oxidative damage and can be used in testicular degeneration.
Collapse
|
3
|
Vollset SE, Ababneh HS, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbastabar H, Abd Al Magied AHA, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelkader A, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdi P, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Absalan A, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abukhadijah HJJ, Addolorato G, Adekanmbi V, Adetunji CO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adha R, Adhikary RK, Adnani QES, Adzigbli LA, Afrashteh F, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agbozo F, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahlstrom AJ, Ahmad A, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed S, Ahmed SA, Akinosoglou K, Akkaif MA, Akrami AE, Akter E, Al Awaidy S, Al Hasan SM, Al Mosa AS, Al Ta'ani O, Al Zaabi OAM, Alahdab F, Alajlani MM, Al-Ajlouni Y, Alalalmeh SO, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alam Z, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Albakri A, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alemohammad SY, Alemu YM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali I, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Ali VE, Ali W, Al-Ibraheem A, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alqutaibi AY, Alrawashdeh A, Alrousan SM, Al-Sabah SK, Alsabri MA, Altaany Z, Al-Tammemi AB, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Al-Wardat MS, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Alyahya MS, Alzoubi KH, Al-Zyoud W, Amani R, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Andrews EA, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anuoluwa BS, Anvari S, Anyasodor AE, Appiah F, Aquilano M, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafa EA, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Ardekani A, Areda D, Aregawi BB, Aremu A, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armani K, Artamonov AA, Arumugam A, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashbaugh C, Astell-Burt T, Athari SS, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Awad H, Awotidebe AW, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Azadnajafabad S, Azeez FK, Azevedo RMS, Badar M, Baghdadi S, Bagheri M, Bagheri N, Bai R, Baker JL, Bako AT, Balakrishnan S, Balcha WF, Baltatu OC, Barchitta M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barqawi HJ, Barteit S, Basiru A, Basso JD, Bastan MM, Basu S, Bauckneht M, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Behnoush AH, Behzadi P, Beiranvand M, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bemanalizadeh M, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Bernstein RS, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Beyene MG, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bharadwaj R, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhuiyan MA, Bisignano C, Biswas B, Bjørge T, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Bosoka SA, Botero Carvajal A, Bouaoud S, Boufous S, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Brazo-Sayavera J, Brenner H, Brown CS, Browne AJ, Brugha T, Bryazka D, Bulamu NB, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Çakmak Barsbay M, Calina D, Campos LA, Cao S, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carugno A, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castelpietra G, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenko E, Cerin E, Chadban SJ, Chadwick J, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty S, Chalek J, Chan JSK, Chandika RM, Chandy S, Charan J, Chaudhary AA, Chaurasia A, Chen AT, Chen H, Chen MX, Chen S, Cherbuin N, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho DY, Cho WCS, Choi DW, Chong B, Chong CL, Chopra H, Chu DT, Chung E, Chutiyami M, Clayton JT, Cogen RM, Cohen AJ, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Connolly JT, Cooper EEK, Cortese S, Cruz-Martins N, da Silva AG, Dadras O, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalton BE, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Das JK, Das S, Das S, Dash NR, Davletov K, De la Hoz FP, De Leo D, Debopadhaya S, Delgado-Enciso I, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhama K, Dhane AS, Dhingra S, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz LA, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Doegah PT, Dohare S, Dong W, D'Oria M, Doshi R, Dowou RK, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Dube J, Dumith SC, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dushpanova A, Dutta S, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Ebrahimi Kalan M, Edinur HA, Efendi F, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekundayo TC, El Arab RA, El Sayed I, Elamin O, Elemam NM, ElGohary GMT, Elhadi M, Elmeligy OAA, Elmoselhi AB, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Eltahir ME, Emeto TI, Eshrati B, Eslami M, Esmaeili Z, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe AF, Fagbule OF, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faro A, Fasihi K, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Fazylov T, Feigin VL, Fekadu G, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Ferrara P, Ferreira N, Firew BS, Fischer F, Fitriana I, Flavel J, Flor LS, Folayan MO, Foley KM, Fonzo M, Force LM, Foschi M, Freitas A, Fridayani NKY, Fukutaki KG, Furtado JM, Fux B, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gallus S, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Gautam RK, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Getacher L, Getahun GKA, Gething PW, Ghadimi DJ, Ghadirian F, Ghafarian S, Ghailan KY, Ghasemi M, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghazy RM, Ghoba S, Gholami E, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh N, Ghorbani M, Ghorbani Vajargah P, Ghotbi E, Gil AU, Gill TK, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Glushkova EV, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Goldust M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Gouravani M, Goyal A, Grivna M, Grosso G, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Guicciardi S, Guimarães RA, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane DA, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VK, Haakenstad A, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hafiz A, Haghmorad D, Haile D, Hajj Ali A, Hajj Ali A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Hamdy NM, Hamoudi R, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Haq ZA, Haque MR, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan SMM, Hasanian M, Hasnain MS, Hassan A, Haubold J, Hay SI, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari M, Hemmati M, Henson CA, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Heydari M, Hezam K, Hidayana I, Hiraike Y, Hoan NQ, Holla R, Hoogar P, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hu C, Huang J, Hultström M, Hundie TG, Hunt AJ, Hushmandi K, Hussain J, Hussain MA, Hussein NR, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Iftikhar PM, Ikiroma AI, Ikwegbue PC, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Isa MA, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iyamu IO, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jafarinia M, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jakhmola Mani DR, Jamil S, Jamora RDG, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayaram S, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jiang H, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jürisson M, K V, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kalankesh LR, Kalra S, Kamath A, Kamath R, Kamireddy A, Kanaan M, Kanchan T, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kansal SK, Karim A, Karkhah S, Kashoo FZ, Kasraei H, Kassel MB, Katikireddi SV, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kebede F, Kendal ES, Kesse-Guyot E, Khademvatan S, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid A, Khalid N, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan F, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Kheirallah KA, Khokhar M, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Khosla AA, Khosravi M, Khosrowjerdi M, Khubchandani J, Kifle ZD, Kim G, Kim JS, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Kochhar S, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Koren G, Korzh O, Krishan K, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kujan O, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar GA, Kumar H, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kumar V, Kundu A, Kusuma D, Kyei-Arthur F, Kytö V, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lai DTC, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lan Q, Lan T, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lawlor HR, Le HH, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TTT, Le TDT, Leasher JL, Lee DW, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee YH, Leigh J, Leong E, Li MC, Libra M, Ligade VS, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenh LW, Lindholm D, Lindstedt PA, Listl S, Liu G, Liu S, Liu S, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, López-Bueno R, López-Gil JF, Loreche AM, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Luo L, Lusk JB, Lv L, M Amin HI, Ma ZF, Maass KL, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Maghazachi AA, Mahadeshwara Prasad D, Mahalleh M, Mahasha PW, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudvand G, Makama M, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malta DC, Manla Y, Mansour A, Mansouri MH, Mansouri P, Mansouri V, Mansourian M, Mansournia MA, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Mardi P, Marjani A, Markazi Moghadam H, Marrugo Arnedo CA, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Marzo RR, Masoudi S, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathioudakis AG, Mathur M, Mathur N, Mathur N, Matozinhos FP, Mattumpuram J, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, Mayeli M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McPhail MA, McPhail SM, Mehmood A, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehravar S, Mekene Meto T, Melese EB, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Mensah LG, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Miller TR, Minh LHN, Mirahmadi A, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei R, Mitchell PB, Mittal C, Moberg ME, Moghadam Fard A, Mohajelin S, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed AI, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad AM, Mohammadi S, Mohammed H, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Momani SM, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Montazeri F, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mousavi P, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Musallam KM, Musina AM, Mustafa G, Myung W, Nafei A, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Nainu F, Najdaghi S, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Nargus S, Narimani Davani D, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Naser AY, Nashwan AJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Navaratna SNK, Naveed M, Nawsherwan, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nematollahi S, Netsere HB, Ng M, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen N, Nguyen NNY, Nguyen PT, Nguyen QP, Nguyen VT, Nguyen Tran Minh D, Niazi RK, Nigatu YT, Niknam M, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor AR, Nikravangolsefid N, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noor STA, Noroozi N, Nouri M, Nozari M, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Nunemo MH, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Oduro MS, Ogundijo OA, Ogunfowokan AA, Ogunkoya A, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Ojo-Akosile TR, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omer GL, Ong S, Onie S, Onwujekwe OE, Opejin AO, Ordak M, Orish VN, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Prado E, Osman WMS, Ostojic SM, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Owolabi MO, Oyeyemi OT, Ozair A, P A MP, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pal PK, Palicz T, Pan F, Pan HF, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pando-Robles V, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Panos LD, Pantazopoulos I, Pantea Stoian AM, Parikh RR, Park EK, Park S, Park S, Parsons N, Parthasarathi A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Patel J, Pathan AR, Patil S, Patoulias D, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah P, Pereira M, Pereira MO, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Perna S, Pesudovs K, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pigeolet M, Piradov MA, Pisoni E, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Polibin RV, Poluru R, Ponkilainen VT, Popovic DS, Postma MJ, Pour-Rashidi A, Prabhu D, Prada SI, Pradhan J, Pradhan PMS, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Priscilla T, Purnobasuki H, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Rabiee Rad M, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Raggi A, Raggi C, Raheem N, Rahim F, Rahim MJ, Rahimibarghani S, Rahman MMMR, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahman T, Rahmani AM, Rahmanian M, Rahmanian N, Rahmati R, Rahmawaty S, Raimondo D, Raja A, Rajput P, Ramadan M, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Ramteke PW, Rana K, Rana RK, Ranabhat CL, Rane A, Rao CR, Rao M, Rasella D, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rastogi P, Rasul A, Rathish D, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Ravangard R, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Raza RZ, Redwan EMM, Reifels L, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Rengasamy KRR, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Restaino S, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei ZS, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Rickard J, Robalik T, Robinson-Oden HE, Rocha HAL, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Romadlon DS, Ronfani L, Rony MKK, Roshandel G, Rotimi K, Rout HS, Roy B, Rubagotti E, Ruela GDA, Rumisha SF, Runghien T, Russo M, Saad AMA, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabet CJ, Sabour S, Sachdev PS, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi M, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Saghafi A, Sagoe D, Sahebkar A, Sahoo PM, Sajid MR, Salam N, Salamati P, Salami AA, Saleh MA, Salehi L, Salem MR, Salemcity AJ, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanna F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Saraswathy SYI, Saravanan A, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sayeed A, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schinckus C, Schuermans A, Schumacher AE, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Selvaraj S, Semreen MH, Senapati S, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Serban D, Sethi Y, Seylani A, Shafie M, Shah PA, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shamekh A, Shamim MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Shannawaz M, Sharath M, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma A, Sharma M, Sharma S, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shayan M, Shekhar S, Shenoy RR, Shetty M, Shetty PH, Shetty PK, Shi P, Shiani A, Shigematsu M, Shimels T, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Shuval K, Si Y, Siddig EE, Sidhu JK, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Silva TPR, Simpson CR, Simpson KE, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh B, Singh H, Singh J, Singh P, Singh P, Skou ST, Smith G, Sobia F, Socea B, Solanki S, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Song Y, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Spearman S, Sreeramareddy CT, Stanaway JD, Stanikzai MH, Starodubova AV, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Straif K, Subedi N, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sundström J, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabb KM, Tabche C, Tabish M, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taiba J, Talaat IM, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tat NY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tbakhi A, Tehrani H, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye BT, Teye-Kwadjo E, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thayakaran R, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thygesen LC, Ticoalu JHV, Timalsena D, Tiruye TY, Tiwari K, Tomo S, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran AT, Tran JT, Tran NM, Tran TH, Trico D, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Turnock ST, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umakanthan S, Umar M, Umar SS, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Usman JS, Vahdati S, Vaithinathan AG, Vakili O, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Venketasubramanian N, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Vijayageetha M, Villafañe JH, Vinayak M, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vohra K, Vos T, Wadood AW, Waheed Y, Wang F, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wanjau MN, Waqas M, Ward P, Waris A, Wassie EG, Watson S, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weldetinsaa HLL, Wells KM, Wen YF, Westerman R, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe DP, Widowati E, Wojewodzic MW, Woldeyes DH, Wolf AW, Wolfe CDA, Wu C, Wu D, Wu F, Wu J, Wu Z, Wulf Hanson S, Xiao H, Xu S, Yadav R, Yamagishi K, Yang D, Yano Y, Yarahmadi A, Yazdani Nia I, Ye P, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yigzaw ZA, Yin D, Yip P, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yu EA, Yu Y, Yuan CW, Yusuf H, Zafar U, Zafari N, Zahid MH, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zerfu TA, Zhang H, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhao XJG, Zhao Y, Zhao Z, Zhong C, Zhou B, Zhou J, Zhou S, Zhu B, Zhumagaliuly A, Zielińska M, Zoghi G, Zumla A, Zyoud SH, Zyoud SH, Smith AE, Murray CJL. Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2204-2256. [PMID: 38762325 PMCID: PMC11121021 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2024] [Revised: 03/29/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. METHODS Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FINDINGS In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]). INTERPRETATION Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
4
|
Naghavi M, Ong KL, Aali A, Ababneh HS, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abebe SS, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abhilash ES, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abolmaali M, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Accrombessi MMK, Adal TG, Adamu AA, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adebiyi AO, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyinka DA, Adeyomoye OI, Admass BAA, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afolabi AA, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Agasthi P, Aggarwal M, Aghamiri S, Agide FD, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Akara EM, Akbarialiabad H, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemiju T, Akkaif MA, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, Alalalmeh SO, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam N, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Al-Azzam S, Albakri A, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Aldawsari KA, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alema HB, Alemayohu MA, Alemi S, Alemu YM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhabib KF, Alhalaiqa FAN, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali S, Ali SSS, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alikhani R, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi AA, Aljasir MAM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri SAA, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almidani L, Almidani O, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Alonso J, Alqahtani JS, Alqalyoobi S, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Sabah SK, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amare AT, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angus C, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyasodor AE, Aqeel M, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Aremu A, Aremu O, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asadi-Lari M, Asgedom AA, Asghariahmadabad M, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Aslani A, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atinafu BTT, Atlaw HW, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awedew AF, Aweke AM, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Azzam AY, B DB, Babu AS, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bahmanziari N, Bai R, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bako AT, Bakshi RK, Balakrishnan S, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik PC, Bansal H, Bansal K, Barbic F, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrero LH, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Basharat Z, Bashiri A, Basiru A, Baskaran P, Basnyat B, Bassat Q, Basso JD, Basting AVL, Basu S, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Bedi N, Beghi M, Behboudi E, Behera P, Behnoush AH, Behzadifar M, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Béjot Y, Belay SA, Belete CM, Bell ML, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bender RG, Bensenor IM, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Berhie AY, Berice BN, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas B, Bitaraf S, Bitew BD, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Boachie MK, Boampong MS, Bobirca AV, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bogale KA, Bohlouli S, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Borzutzky A, Bouaoud S, Boustany A, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Brazo-Sayavera J, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton G, Brown J, Brugha T, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cao Y, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalheiro CG, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Cederroth CR, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Cevik M, Chadwick J, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty PA, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandika RM, Chandrasekar EK, Chang CK, Chang JC, Chanie GS, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chaurasia A, Chen AW, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen MX, Chen S, Cheng CY, Cheng ETW, Cherbuin N, Cheru WA, Chien JH, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho WCS, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chung E, Chung SC, Chutiyami M, Cindi Z, Cioffi I, Claassens MM, Claro RM, Coberly K, Cogen RM, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Cortese S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Costanzo S, Cousin E, Couto RAS, Cowden RG, Cramer KM, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Cuadra-Hernández SM, Culbreth GT, Cullen P, Cunningham M, Curado MP, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai S, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalli LL, Damiani G, Darega Gela J, Das JK, Das S, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dastiridou A, Davey G, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, Davletov K, De Leo D, de Luca K, Debele AT, Debopadhaya S, Degenhardt L, Dehghan A, Deitesfeld L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Demessa BH, Demetriades AK, Deng K, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deravi N, Dereje N, Dervenis N, Dervišević E, Des Jarlais DC, Desai HD, Desai R, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Dhulipala VR, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Ding H, Dinis-Oliveira RJ, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Do THP, do Prado CB, Doaei S, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Dohare S, Dokova KG, Dolecek C, Dominguez RMV, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorostkar F, Dorsey ER, dos Santos WM, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Du M, Dube J, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, E'mar AR, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Echieh CP, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi D, Efendi F, Effendi DE, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, Elbarazi I, Elema TB, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, ElGohary GMT, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elilo LT, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Esezobor CI, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Esubalew H, Etaee F, Fabin N, Fadaka AO, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Fahimi S, Fakhri-Demeshghieh A, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faris PS, Faro A, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fauk NK, Fazeli P, Feigin VL, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrante D, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Feyisa BR, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flood D, Florin BT, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan B, Foroutan M, Forthun I, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Fowobaje KR, Francis KL, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Friedman J, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fux B, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Gakidou E, Galali Y, Galles NC, Gallus S, Ganbat M, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Garg J, Garg N, Gautam RK, Gbadamosi SO, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel TG, Georgescu SR, Getachew T, Gething PW, Getie M, Ghadiri K, Ghahramani S, Ghailan KY, Ghasemi MR, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghashghaee A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Ghimire A, Ghoba S, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh N, Ghorbani M, Ghorbani Vajargah P, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Godinho MA, Goel A, Golchin A, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomes NGM, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Goyal A, Grada A, Graham SM, Grivna M, Grosso G, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Guimarães RA, Gulati S, Gunawardane DA, Gunturu S, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta MK, Gupta M, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Gurmessa L, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Haddadi R, Hadei M, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Hall BJ, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Hamilton EB, Han C, Han Q, Hanif A, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Hanna F, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasan MT, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hashi A, Hasnain MS, Hassan I, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, He J, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Helfer B, Hendrie D, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Hesami H, Hezam K, Hill CL, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hosseinzadeh Adli A, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hsu RL, Hu C, Huang J, Hultström M, Humayun A, Hundie TG, Hussain J, Hussain MA, Hussein NR, Hussien FM, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ibrahim KS, Iftikhar PM, Ijo D, Ikiroma AI, Ikuta KS, Ikwegbue PC, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Inamdar S, Indriasih E, Iqhrammullah M, Iradukunda A, Iregbu KC, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyamu IO, Iyer M, J LM, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jafarzadeh A, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jaiswal A, Jamshidi E, Janko MM, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jebai R, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jha AK, Jha RP, Jiang H, Jin Y, Johnson O, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Joshy G, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, K V, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kadir DH, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamal VK, Kamarajah SK, Kamath R, Kamiab Z, Kamyari N, Kanagasabai T, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmanthareddy AR, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kannan S S, Kansal SK, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karajizadeh M, Karanth SD, Karasneh RA, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karim A, Karimi SE, Karimi Behnagh A, Kashoo FZ, Kasnazani QHA, Kasraei H, Kassebaum NJ, Kassel MB, Kauppila JH, Kaur N, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kazmi TH, Kebebew GM, Kebede AD, Kebede F, Keflie TS, Keiyoro PN, Keller C, Kelly JT, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Kesse-Guyot E, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid N, Khalil AA, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan A, Khan G, Khan I, Khan IA, Khan MN, Khan M, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khan ZA, Khan suheb MZ, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khavandegar A, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khorgamphar M, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Khosravi A, Khosravi MA, Kifle ZD, Kim G, Kim J, Kim K, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinzel KE, Kisa A, Kisa S, Klu D, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kocsis T, Koh DSQ, Kolahi AA, Kolves K, Kompani F, Koren G, Kosen S, Kostev K, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishna H, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamoorthy Y, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar A, Kumar H, Kumar M, Kumar R, Kumari M, Kumie FT, Kundu S, Kurmi OP, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kwarteng A, Kyriopoulos I, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lagat AK, Lager ACJ, Lahmar A, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lám J, Landrum KR, Lanfranchi F, Lang JJ, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Latief K, Latifinaibin K, Lauriola P, Le NHH, Le TTT, Le TDT, Ledda C, Ledesma JR, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee WC, Lee YH, LeGrand KE, Leigh J, Leong E, Lerango TL, Li MC, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Z, Ligade VS, Likaka ATM, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lindstrom M, Linehan C, Liu C, Liu G, Liu J, Liu R, Liu S, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, Loftus MJ, López-Bueno R, Lopukhov PD, Loreche AM, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Ma ZF, Maass KL, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madadizadeh F, Madsen C, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Maghazachi AA, Maharaj SB, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi A, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudi R, Majeed A, Makhdoom IF, Malakan Rad E, Maled V, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra AK, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri P, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Maqsood S, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Marconi AM, Mardi P, Marino M, Marjani A, Martinez G, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martinez-Piedra R, Martini D, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Masaka A, Masrie A, Mathieson S, Mathioudakis AG, Mathur MR, Mattumpuram J, Matzopoulos R, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McLaughlin SA, McPhail SM, Mechili EA, Medina JRC, Mediratta RP, Meena JK, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mekene Meto T, Meles GG, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengist B, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meresa HA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mesfin BA, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Meylakhs P, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Miazgowski T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Mir Mohammad Sadeghi P, Mirica A, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirutse MK, Mirzaei M, Misganaw A, Mishra A, Misra S, Mitchell PB, Mithra P, Mittal C, Mobayen M, Moberg ME, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed H, Mohammed H, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mojiri-Forushani H, Mokari A, Mokdad AH, Molinaro S, Molokhia M, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosser JF, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpolya EA, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller UO, Mughal F, Mukherjee S, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Musaigwa F, Musallam KM, Mustafa A, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Muthusamy R, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi P, Naheed A, Naik GR, Naik G, Nainu F, Nair S, Najmuldeen HHR, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Nasehi S, Nashwan AJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nazri-Panjaki A, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nena E, Nepal S, Ng M, Nggada HA, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nielsen KR, Nigatu YT, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikoomanesh F, Nikpoor AR, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Novotney A, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Oboh MA, Odetokun IA, Odogwu NM, O'Donnell MJ, Oduro MS, Ofakunrin AOD, Ogunkoya A, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omar Bali A, Omer GL, Ondayo MA, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Ordak M, Orisakwe OE, Orish VN, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, Ozten Y, P A MP, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pal PK, Palicz T, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez RF, Pan F, Pan HF, Pana A, Panda P, Panda-Jonas S, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Panos LD, Pantazopoulos I, Pantea Stoian AM, Papadopoulou P, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Pasupula DK, Patel HM, Patel J, Patel SK, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Pereira M, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Pestell RG, Pesudovs K, Petermann-Rocha FE, Petri WA, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Piracha ZZ, Piradov MA, Pirouzpanah S, Plakkal N, Plotnikov E, Podder V, Poddighe D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Poluru R, Ponkilainen VT, Porru F, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prakasham TN, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Prieto Alhambra D, PRISCILLA TINA, Pritchett N, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Qiu S, Qureshi MF, Rabiee Rad M, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Raheem N, Rahim F, Rahim MJ, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MM, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rajaa S, Rajput P, Rakovac I, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rane A, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashidi MM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rasul A, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Rawlley B, Raza RZ, Razo C, Redwan EMM, Rehman FU, Reifels L, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Reyes LF, Rezaei M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Riaz MA, Ribeiro ALP, Rickard J, Riva HR, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues CF, Rodrigues M, Roever L, Rogowski ELB, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Romero-Rodríguez E, Romoli M, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rout HS, Roy N, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Ruela GDA, Rumisha SF, Runghien T, Rwegerera GM, Rynkiewicz A, S N C, Saad AMA, Saadatian Z, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, SaberiKamarposhti M, Sabour S, Sacco S, Sachdev PS, Sachdeva R, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian F, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safaeinejad F, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahoo U, Sahu M, Saif Z, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salam N, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanna F, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sarasmita MA, Saraswathy SYI, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar T, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Satpathy M, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Saylan M, Sayyah M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schlaich MP, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schuermans A, Schumacher AE, Schutte AE, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Šekerija M, Selvaraj S, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Sethi Y, Sha F, Shabany M, Shafaat A, Shafie M, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shah SM, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh A, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shalash AS, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshad H, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shayan M, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shetty A, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shin YH, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shitaye NA, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shokraneh F, Shokri A, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Shuval K, Siddig EE, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh G, Singh J, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Sinha DN, Sinto R, Siraj MS, Sirota SB, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Socea B, Sokhan A, Solanki R, Solanki S, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Spearman S, Sreeramareddy CT, Srivastava VK, Stanaway JD, Stanikzai MH, Stark BA, Starnes JR, Starodubova AV, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiner C, Steinmetz JD, Steiropoulos P, Stevanović A, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Subramaniyan V, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun HZ, Sun J, Sundström J, Sunkersing D, Sunnerhagen KS, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabish M, TADAKAMADLA JYOTHI, Tadakamadla SK, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taiba J, Takahashi K, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tandukar S, Tang H, Tang HK, Tarigan IU, Tariku MK, Tariqujjaman M, Tarkang EE, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tefera YM, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesler R, Teye-Kwadjo E, Thakur R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Tharwat S, Thayakaran R, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Thomson AM, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Thygesen LC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Titova MV, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Toriola AT, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran JT, Tran NM, Trico D, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Uddin SMN, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umakanthan S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Unsworth CA, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Usman JS, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Valizadeh R, Van de Velde SM, Van den Eynde J, Varga O, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Verghese NA, Verma M, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Villanueva GI, Vinayak M, Violante FS, Viskadourou M, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang N, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Waqas M, Ward P, Wassie EG, Watson S, Watson SLW, Weerakoon KG, Wei MY, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilandika A, Wilkerson C, Willeit P, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Woldegebreal DH, Wolf AW, Wolfe CDA, Wondimagegene YA, Wong YJ, Wongsin U, Wu AM, Wu C, Wu F, Wu X, Wu Z, Xia J, Xiao H, Xie Y, Xu S, Xu WD, Xu X, Xu YY, Yadollahpour A, Yamagishi K, Yang D, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yaribeygi H, Ye P, Yehualashet SS, Yesiltepe M, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yi S, Yigezu A, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yismaw MB, Yismaw Y, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, You Y, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yu Y, Yuh FH, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zangiabadian M, Zar HJ, Zare I, Zarrintan A, Zeariya MGM, Zeinali Z, Zhang H, Zhang J, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu L, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zitoun OA, Zoladl M, Zou Z, Zuhlke LJ, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Wool EE, Murray CJL. Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2100-2132. [PMID: 38582094 PMCID: PMC11126520 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
5
|
Bhattacharjee NV, Schumacher AE, Aali A, Abate YH, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abebe SS, Abiodun O, Abolhassani H, Abolmaali M, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abrigo MRM, Abtahi D, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adal TGG, Adane MM, Adeagbo OAA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adepoju AV, Adetokunboh OO, Adetunji JB, Adeyinka DA, Adeyomoye OI, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afolabi RF, Afyouni S, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahlstrom AJ, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MS, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Akalu GT, Akbarialiabad H, Akinyemi RO, Akkaif MA, Akkala S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Al Qadire M, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alalalmeh SO, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Albakri A, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Alemi H, Alemi S, Alemu YM, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhabib KF, Alhajri N, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alhassan RK, Ali A, Ali BA, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Alif SM, Aligol M, Alijanzadeh M, Aljasir MAM, Aljunid SM, Al-Marwani S, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almidani O, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Alqahtani JS, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Raddadi RM, Al-Sabah SK, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvi FJ, Alvis-Guzman N, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amini-Rarani M, Amiri S, Ampomah IG, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anil A, Anil S, Ansar A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari S, ANWAR SALEHA, Anwer R, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arabzadeh Bahri R, Arafa EA, Arafat M, Araújo AM, Aravkin AY, Aremu A, Aripov T, Arkew M, Armocida B, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Asadi-Lari M, Asemi Z, Asgary S, Asghariahmadabad M, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashemo MY, Ashraf M, Ashraf T, Asika MO, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Aweke AM, Ayele GM, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Azzam AY, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bahmanziari N, Bai R, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bako AT, Bakshi RK, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik B, Banik PC, Bansal H, Baran MF, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrow A, Barteit S, Basharat Z, Bashir AIJ, Bashiru HA, Basiru A, Basso JD, Basu S, Batiha AMM, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayati M, Begum T, Behboudi E, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bekele A, Belay SA, Belgaumi UI, Bell ML, Bello OO, Beloukas A, Bensenor IM, Berezvai Z, Berhie AY, Bermudez ANC, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Biondi A, Bisignano C, Biswas A, Biswas RK, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Bliss E, Boachie MK, Bobirca AV, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bogale KA, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bora Basara B, Bouaoud S, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Bryazka D, Bulamu NB, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao F, Cao S, Capodici A, Carreras G, Carugno A, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cerin E, Chadwick J, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chalek J, Chan JSK, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Chavula MP, Chen AT, Chen H, Chen S, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chien JH, Ching PR, Cho WCS, Choi S, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung SC, Cindi Z, Cioffi I, Ciuffreda R, Claro RM, Coberly K, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Cuadra-Hernández SM, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dahiru T, Dai Z, Dalton B, Damiani G, Darwesh AM, Das JK, Das S, Dashti M, Dastiridou A, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, Debele AT, Debopadhaya S, Delavari S, Delgado-Enciso I, Demeke D, Demessa BH, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Desai HD, Desai R, Devanbu VGC, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Dhulipala VR, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Dirac MA, Do TC, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dohare S, Dong W, D'Oria M, dos Santos WM, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Dsouza AC, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Dube J, Duprey J, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dutta S, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Ebrahimi A, Edinur HA, Edvardsson K, Efendi F, Eikemo TA, Ekholuenetale M, El Tantawi M, Elemam NM, ElGohary GMT, Elhadi M, Elilo LT, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emami Zeydi A, Engelbert Bain L, Eskandarieh S, Esposito F, Estep K, Etaee F, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahimi S, Fakhri-Demeshghieh A, Falzone L, Faramarzi A, Faris MEM, Farmer S, Faro A, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Fazeli P, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrara P, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan B, Foschi M, Fowobaje KR, Francis KL, Freitas A, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fux B, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Galali Y, Gallus S, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Garcia-Gordillo M, Garg N, Gautam RK, Gazzelloni F, Gbadamosi SO, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam TB, Gebremariam TBB, Gebremeskel TG, Geda YF, Georgescu SR, Gerema U, Geremew H, Getachew ME, Gething PW, Ghasemi M, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Ghimire S, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghorbani M, Ghoshal AG, Ghuge AD, Gil AU, Gill TK, Giorgi M, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Göbölös L, Goel A, Golchin A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gopalani SV, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Goyal A, Graham SM, Grivna M, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guicciardi S, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane DA, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta MK, Gupta M, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Haakenstad A, Habibzadeh F, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hajibeygi R, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hamdy NM, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Han Q, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Haque MN, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasan MJ, Hasan SM, Hasani H, Hasnain MS, Hassan A, Hassan I, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hay SI, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari M, Helfer B, Hemmati M, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Hessami K, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoan NQ, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain MBH, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hu C, Huang J, Huda MM, Humayun A, Hussain J, Hussein NR, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Iftikhar PM, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Inbaraj LR, Iqbal A, Islam MR, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iyer M, J LM, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jakovljevic M, Jamshidi E, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jha AK, Jha RP, Jiang H, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, K V, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir A, Kabir H, Kabir Z, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamath R, Kamath S, Kanchan T, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kannan S S, Kansal SK, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karajizadeh M, Karami M, Karaye IM, Kashoo FZ, Kasraei H, Kassebaum NJ, Kassel MB, Kauppila JH, Kazemi F, Kazeminia S, Kempen JH, Kendal ES, Keshtkar K, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid N, Khalil AA, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan A, Khan I, Khan MN, Khan M, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khang YH, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khavandegar A, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khormali M, Khosravi MA, Khosrowjerdi M, Kidane WT, Kifle ZD, Kim JS, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kinzel KE, Kiross GT, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Koren G, Korzh O, Kosen S, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kubeisy CM, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kulimbet M, Kumar H, Kundu S, Kunle KR, Kurmi OP, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kyei EF, Kyriopoulos I, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lám J, Lamnisos D, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larson HJ, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Latief K, Latifinaibin K, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TDT, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee YH, Lema GK, Leong E, Lerango TL, Li A, Li MC, Li S, Li W, Li X, Ligade VS, Lim SS, Lin RT, Lindstedt PA, Listl S, Liu G, Liu J, Liu X, Liu X, Liu Y, Llanaj E, López-Bueno R, Lopukhov PD, Lorenzovici L, Lotufo PA, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Lv H, Ma ZF, Maass KL, Machoy M, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghazachi AA, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Majeed A, Malagón-Rojas JN, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manla Y, Mansoori Y, Mansour A, Mansouri B, Mansouri Z, Mansournia MA, Maravilla JC, Marino M, Marjani A, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Masoudi A, Mattumpuram J, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, May EA, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McLaughlin SA, McPhail SM, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mekene Meto T, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Merati M, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Metanat P, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Miazgowski T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Minh LHN, Mirghafourvand M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirutse MK, Mirza M, Mirzaei R, Mishra A, Misra S, Mitchell PB, Mittal C, Moazen B, Mohamed AZ, Mohamed AI, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mokhtarzadehazar P, Molavi Vardanjani H, Molinaro S, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moraga P, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosapour A, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mousavi P, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Musa J, Musaigwa F, Musina AM, Muthu S, Muthupandian S, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Naimzada MD, Nainu F, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Naser AY, Nasiri MJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negesse CT, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nepal S, Netsere HB, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen QP, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nigatu YT, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor AR, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Nri-Ezedi CA, Nunemo MH, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Odogwu NM, O'Donnell MJ, Odukoya OO, Oguntade AS, Oguta JO, Oh IH, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olagunju AT, Olasupo OO, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwatunase GO, Omar HA, Omer GL, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Orisakwe OE, Orish VN, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Prado E, Osman WMS, Osuagwu UL, Osuolale O, Otoiu A, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, Ozten Y, P A MP, Pahlevan Fallahy MT, Pan F, Pan HF, Pana A, Panda P, Panda-Jonas S, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Panos LD, Pantazopoulos I, Pantea Stoian AM, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Passera R, Patel HM, Patel J, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Paun M, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah P, Pereira G, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Perna S, Pestell RG, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pham HT, Philip AK, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Pollner P, Poluru R, Postma MJ, Pourali G, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prabhu D, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prasad M, Prashant A, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, R D, Rabiee Rad M, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan V, Raee P, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafiei A, Rafiei Alavi SN, Raggi C, Raghav PR, Rahim F, Rahim MJ, Rahman MM, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmanian V, Rahmati M, Rahnavard N, Rai P, Raimondo D, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajput P, Ram P, Ramasamy SK, Rana J, Rana K, Rana SS, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rane A, Ranjan S, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rapaka D, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashidi MM, Rasul A, Ratan ZA, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Rawlley B, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Rezaei N, Rezaei Nejad A, Rezaeian M, Riad A, Riaz MA, Rickard J, Rikhtegar R, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues CF, Rodriguez JAB, Rohilla R, Romadlon DS, Ronfani L, Rout HS, Roy B, Roy N, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Ruela GDA, Rumisha SF, Runghien T, S M, S N C, Saad AMA, Saadatian Z, Saber-Ayad MM, SaberiKamarposhti M, Sabour S, Sada F, Saddik B, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi E, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Sagoe D, Saha M, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahu M, Saif Z, Sakshaug JW, Salamati P, Salami AA, Saleh MA, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadzadeh S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanadgol N, Sanna F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saqib H, Saraswathy SYI, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar T, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sathyanarayan A, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Scarmeas N, Schlee W, Schuermans A, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Selvaraj S, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Serván-Mori E, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seyedi SA, Seylani A, Shafie M, Shah J, Shah PA, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh A, Shaikh MA, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Shannawaz M, Sharath M, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shaw DH, Shayan AM, Shayan M, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shenoy MM, Shetty PH, Shi P, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shittu A, Shivarov V, Shokraneh F, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shuja KH, Shuval K, Siddig EE, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simonetti B, Singal A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh JA, Siraj MS, Smith G, Socea B, Sokhan A, Solanki R, Solanki S, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Solomon Y, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Srivastava VK, Stanikzai MH, Starodubov VI, Starodubova AV, Stefan SC, Steiropoulos P, Stokes MA, Subramaniyan V, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Swain CK, Sykes BL, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabb KM, Tabish M, Taheri Soodejani M, Taiba J, Tajbakhsh A, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tareke DADA, Tariku MK, Tat VY, Tavangar SM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Terefa DR, Tesler R, Teye-Kwadjo E, Thakur R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Tharwat S, Thayakaran R, Thomas N, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tiruye TY, Titova MV, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran JT, Tran NM, Trihandini I, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tyrovolas S, Uddin SMN, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umakanthan S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Usman JS, Vacante M, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varavikova E, Varga O, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vellingiri B, Venugopal D, Verghese NA, Verma M, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Vinayak M, Violante FS, Vishwakarma M, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Volovat SR, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wakwoya EB, Wang C, Wang D, Wang F, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Wassie EG, Watson S, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weiss DJ, Wells KM, Wen YF, Westerman R, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Willeit P, Wondimagegene YA, Wu F, Xia J, Xiao H, Xu G, Xu S, Xu X, Yadollahpour A, Yaghoobpoor S, Yaghoobpour T, Yaghoubi S, Yahaya ZS, Yang D, Yang L, Yano Y, Yaribeygi H, Ye P, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yigezu A, Yip P, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yu Y, Yuan CW, Zafari N, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zamagni G, Zandi M, Zandieh GGZ, Zangiabadian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang H, Zhang M, Zhang Y, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu L, Zielińska M, Zou Z, Zyoud SH, Murray CJL, Smith AE, Vollset SE. Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2057-2099. [PMID: 38521087 PMCID: PMC11122687 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2023] [Revised: 12/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2024] [Indexed: 03/25/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. METHODS To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FINDINGS During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. INTERPRETATION Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
6
|
Ferrari AJ, Santomauro DF, Aali A, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdollahi A, Abdullahi A, Abegaz KH, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abualruz H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Ackerman IN, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adebiyi AO, Adepoju AV, Adewuyi HO, Afyouni S, Afzal S, Afzal S, Agodi A, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ajami M, Akinosoglou K, Akkaif MA, Al Hasan SM, Alalalmeh SO, Al-Aly Z, Albashtawy M, Aldridge RW, Alemu MD, Alemu YM, Alene KA, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alharrasi M, Alhassan RK, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Alif SM, Aljunid SM, Al-Marwani S, Almazan JU, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Altaany Z, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Alwafi H, Al-Wardat MS, Al-Worafi YM, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amare AT, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Ansari H, Antony CM, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyanwu PE, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Araki DT, Aravkin AY, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Ashbaugh C, Ashemo MY, Ashraf M, Asika MO, Askari E, Astell-Burt T, Athari SS, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awotidebe AW, Awuviry-Newton K, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Babu AS, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bah S, Bai R, Baker JL, Bakkannavar SM, Bako AT, Balakrishnan S, Bam K, Banik PC, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Barqawi HJ, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Bashiri Aliabadi S, Basiru A, Basu S, Basu S, Bathini PP, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayileyegn NS, Behnam B, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bell ML, Bello OO, Beloukas A, Bensenor IM, Berezvai Z, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Boxe C, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brauer M, Breitner S, Brenner H, Brown J, Brugha T, Bulamu NB, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Byun J, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Capodici A, Carr S, Carreras G, Carugno A, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cerin E, Chakraborty PA, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandika RM, Chandrasekar EK, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chen AW, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen NM, Cheng ETW, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Cho WCS, Choi S, Chong B, Chong YY, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Christensen SWM, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chutiyami M, Claassens MM, Cogen RM, Columbus A, Conde J, Cortesi PA, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai S, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalaba MA, Damiani G, Das JK, Das S, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, De Leo D, Debele AT, Debopadhaya S, DeCleene NK, Deeba F, Degenhardt L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Demetriades AK, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Desai HD, Desai R, Deuba K, Dhama K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhingra S, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz LA, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Dirac MA, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dohare S, Dominguez RMV, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorsey ER, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Dube J, Dumith SC, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elemam NM, ElGohary GMT, Elhadi M, Elmeligy OAA, ELNahas G, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Eshrati B, Estep K, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe AF, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faro A, Farrokhi P, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Feigin VL, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferreira N, Ferreira PH, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flood D, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Force LM, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Fukumoto T, Furtado JM, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Galali Y, Ganbat M, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganie MA, Ganiyani MA, Gardner WM, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam TBB, Gebremeskel TG, Gela YY, Georgescu SR, Getachew Obsa A, Gething PW, Getie M, Ghadiri K, Ghadirian F, Ghailan KY, Ghajar A, Ghasemi M, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghazy RM, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghorbani M, Ghotbi E, Gibson RM, Gill TK, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Göbölös L, Godinho MA, Goharinezhad S, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gona PN, Gorini G, Goulart AC, Grada A, Grivna M, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane DA, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta I, Gupta M, Gupta R, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Haddadi R, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hafiz A, Hagins H, Halboub ES, Halimi A, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamilton EB, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Haro JM, Hartvigsen J, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasanian M, Hasnain MS, Hassan A, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Helfer B, Hemmati M, Hendrie D, Henson CA, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoan NQ, Holla R, Hon J, Hossain MM, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsu JM, Huang J, Hugo FN, Hushmandi K, Hussain J, Hussein NR, Huynh CK, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Iannucci VC, Ihler AL, Ikiroma AI, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Irham LM, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyer M, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jeyakumar A, Jha AK, Jiang H, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, K V, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamenov K, Kamyari N, Kanagasabai T, Kandel H, Kanmanthareddy AR, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Karim A, Karimi SE, Karimi Y, Kasraei H, Kassel MB, Kauppila JH, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keller C, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Keshtkar K, Kesse-Guyot E, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid A, Khalid N, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan I, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khatatbeh MM, Khater AM, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Kifle ZD, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Koh HY, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Koren G, Korzh O, Kosen S, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kulkarni V, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lafranconi A, Lahariya C, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lan Q, Lan T, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Le HH, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TDT, Leasher JL, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, LeGrand KE, Lenzi J, Leong E, Leung J, Li MC, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Y, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lindstrom M, Linn S, Liu G, Liu R, Liu S, Liu W, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, Lo CH, López-Bueno R, Loreche AM, Lorenzovici L, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lunevicius R, Lusk JB, lv H, Ma ZF, Machairas N, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Magaña Gómez JA, Maghazachi AA, Maharjan P, Mahasha PW, Maheri M, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi E, Majeed A, Makris KC, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malta DC, Manla Y, Mansour A, Mansouri P, Mansournia MA, Mantilla Herrera AM, Mantovani LG, Manu E, Marateb HR, Mardi P, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martini D, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathieson S, Mathioudakis AG, Mattumpuram J, Maugeri A, Mayeli M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McPhail MA, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mekene Meto T, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meresa HA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Michalek IM, Miller PA, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minh LHN, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirutse MK, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei M, Mirzaei R, Misganaw A, Mishra AK, Mitchell PB, Mittal C, Moazen B, Moberg ME, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohammed H, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohr RM, Mokdad AH, Molinaro S, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mrejen M, Msherghi A, Mubarik S, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Murlimanju BV, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Nainu F, Nair S, Najmuldeen HHR, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narayana AI, Nargus S, Nascimento GG, Nashwan AJ, Nasrollahizadeh A, Nasrollahizadeh A, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nesbit OD, Netsere HB, Ng M, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HQ, Niazi RK, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikoomanesh F, Nikpoor AR, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Norrving B, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nurrika D, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Odetokun IA, O'Donnell MJ, Oguntade AS, Oguta JO, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olasupo OO, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar HA, Omer GL, Omonisi AEE, Onie S, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Orish VN, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, P A MP, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Palicz T, Palladino C, Pan F, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Panos LD, Pantea Stoian AM, Pardhan S, Parikh RR, Pashaei A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Patel J, Patel SK, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Pereira MO, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petermann-Rocha FE, Petri WA, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Piracha ZZ, Pirouzpanah S, Plass D, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prakash V, Prasad M, Prates EJS, Priscilla T, Pritchett N, Puri P, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Rabiee Rad M, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Rahim MJ, Rahman MM, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani S, Rahmanian M, Rahmawaty S, Rajaa S, Ramadan MM, Ramasamy SK, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rane A, Rao CR, Rao K, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rashidi MM, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo C, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Reifels L, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Reshmi B, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei Hachesu P, Rezaeian M, Rickard J, Rodrigues CF, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rotimi K, Rout HS, Roy B, Roy N, Roy P, Rubagotti E, S N C, Saad AMA, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sacco S, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Sagoe D, Saif Z, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salam N, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Sallam M, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanna F, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Sarikhani Y, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathyanarayan A, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schumacher AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Sedighi M, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Sethi Y, Setoguchi S, Seylani A, Shadid J, Shafie M, Shah H, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shalash AS, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Shannawaz M, Sharath M, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shayan AM, Shayan M, Shehabeldine AME, Shetty PH, Shibuya K, Shifa JE, Shiferaw D, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shitaye NA, Shittu A, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shokati Eshkiki Z, Shool S, Shrestha S, Shuval K, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh H, Singh JA, Singh M, Singh P, Skou ST, Sleet DA, Slepak ELN, Solanki R, Soliman SSM, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Stark BA, Starodubova AV, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steiner TJ, Steinmetz JD, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Subedi NS, Subramaniyan V, Suemoto CK, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sundström J, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabche C, Tabish M, Tadakamadla SK, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tandukar S, Tang H, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thayakaran R, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Thum CCC, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran JT, Tran MTN, Tran NM, Tran NH, Trico D, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tyrovolas S, Udoh A, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Umar TP, Undurraga EA, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Unsworth CA, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Usman JS, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Van den Eynde J, Varga O, Varma RP, Vart P, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Vongpradith A, Waheed Y, Wang C, Wang F, Wang N, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Wassie EG, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Weldemariam AH, Wells KM, Wen YF, Whisnant JL, Whiteford HA, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilandika A, Wilkerson C, Willeit P, Wimo A, Woldegebreal DH, Wolf AW, Wong YJ, Woolf AD, Wu C, Wu F, Wu X, Wu Z, Wulf Hanson S, Xia Y, Xiao H, Xu X, Xu YY, Yadav L, Yadollahpour A, Yaghoubi S, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yaribeygi H, Yazdanpanah MH, Ye P, Yehualashet SS, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yigzaw ZA, Yismaw Y, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yu Y, Yusuf H, Zahid MH, Zakham F, Zaki L, Zaki N, Zaman BA, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandieh GGZ, Zar HJ, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang H, Zhang N, Zhang Y, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zhong P, Zhou J, Zhu Z, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zimsen SRM, Zoladl M, Zumla A, Zyoud SH, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2133-2161. [PMID: 38642570 PMCID: PMC11122111 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00757-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Revised: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. INTERPRETATION Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
7
|
Brauer M, Roth GA, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, Abate KH, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdi P, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abedi A, Abedi A, Abegaz TM, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abiodun O, Abiso TL, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abukhadijah HJJ, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Adane MM, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adha R, Adibi A, Adnani QES, Adzigbli LA, Afolabi AA, Afolabi RF, Afshin A, Afyouni S, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Agbozo F, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad N, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Akalu GT, Akara EM, Akbarialiabad H, Akhlaghi S, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemiju T, Akkaif MA, Akkala S, Akombi-Inyang B, Al Awaidy S, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alalalmeh SO, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Albakri A, AlBataineh MT, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alemayohu MA, Alemu YM, Al-Fatly B, Al-Gheethi AAS, Al-Habbal K, Alhabib KF, Alhassan RK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali BA, Ali I, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Ali W, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Al-Marwani S, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almustanyir S, Alomari MA, Alonso J, Alqahtani JS, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Raddadi RM, Alrawashdeh A, Al-Rifai RH, Alrousan SM, Al-Sabah SK, Alshahrani NZ, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Alwafi H, Al-Wardat MS, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Al-Zyoud W, Amaechi UA, Aman Mohammadi M, Amani R, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Ammirati E, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson JA, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anenberg SC, Angappan D, Angus C, Anil A, Anil S, Anjum A, Anoushiravani A, Antonazzo IC, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anuoluwa BS, Anvari D, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyabolo EE, Anyasodor AE, Apostol GLC, Arabloo J, Arabzadeh Bahri R, Arafat M, Areda D, Aregawi BB, Aremu A, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Artanti KD, Aruleba IT, Arumugam A, Asbeutah AM, Asgary S, Asgedom AA, Ashbaugh C, Ashemo MY, Ashraf T, Askarinejad A, Assmus M, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atorkey P, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awoke AA, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayestas Portugal C, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Azhar GS, Azizi H, Azzam AY, Backhaus IL, Badar M, Badiye AD, Bagga A, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bahrami Taghanaki P, Bai R, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bakkannavar SM, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik B, Banik PC, Banke-Thomas A, Bansal H, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrero LH, Barrow A, Barteit S, Basharat Z, Basiru A, Basso JD, Bastan MM, Basu S, Batchu S, Batra K, Batra R, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Béjot Y, Bekele A, Belgaumi UI, Bell AW, Bell ML, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bendak S, Bennett DA, Bennitt FB, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhuiyan MA, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Biswas A, Biswas B, Biswas RK, Bjørge T, Boachie MK, Boakye H, Bockarie MJ, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bolla SR, Boloor A, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Boppana SH, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Botero Carvajal A, Bouaoud S, Boufous S, Bourne R, Boxe C, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brar A, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briko AN, Britton G, Brown CS, Browne AJ, Brunoni AR, Bryazka D, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cagney J, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cao F, Cao Y, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cederroth CR, Cegolon L, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chadwick J, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty PA, Chakraborty S, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandan JS, Chandika RM, Chaturvedi P, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen MX, Chen M, Chen S, Cheng CY, Cheng ETW, Cherbuin N, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho WCS, Chong B, Chopra H, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung SC, Chutiyami M, Cioffi I, Cogen RM, Cohen AJ, Columbus A, Conde J, Corlateanu A, Cortese S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Costanzo S, Criqui MH, Cruz JA, Cruz-Martins N, Culbreth GT, da Silva AG, Dadras O, Dai X, Dai Z, Daikwo PU, Dalli LL, Damiani G, D'Amico E, D'Anna L, Darwesh AM, Das JK, Das S, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, De la Hoz FP, de la Torre-Luque A, De Leo D, Debopadhaya S, Degenhardt L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Delgado-Saborit JM, Demoze CK, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Dervišević E, Desai HD, Desai R, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhane AS, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Dhulipala VR, Dhungana RR, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz LA, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Dinu M, Djalalinia S, Do TC, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dodangeh M, Dohare S, Dokova KG, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorostkar F, Dorsey ER, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza AC, Dsouza HL, Dumith SC, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Dushpanova A, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Ebrahimi A, Echieh CP, Ed-Dra A, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi F, Eftekharimehrabad A, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Arab RA, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Dahiyat F, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, ElGohary GMT, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, Elmehrath AO, Elmeligy OAA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emeto TI, Esfandiari N, Eshrati B, Eslami M, Esmaeili SV, Estep K, Etaee F, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe AF, Fagbule OF, Fahimi S, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faris PS, Faro A, Fasina FO, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Fazylov T, Feigin VL, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrara P, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Feyisa BR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitriana I, Flavel J, Flohr C, Flood D, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Force LM, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Friedman SD, Fux B, G S, Gaal PA, Gaihre S, Gajdács M, Galali Y, Gallus S, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Garcia V, Gardner WM, Garg RK, Gautam RK, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam TBB, Gebremeskel TG, Gerema U, Getacher L, Getahun GKA, Getie M, Ghadirian F, Ghafarian S, Ghaffari Jolfayi A, Ghailan KY, Ghajar A, Ghasemi M, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Gholami A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh N, Ghorbani M, Gil AU, Gil GF, Gilbertson NM, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gindaba EZ, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Godinho MA, Goel A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gomes NGM, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Gouravani M, Goyal A, Graham SM, Grivna M, Grosso G, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane DA, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta M, Gupta R, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Hadaro TS, Hadian Z, Haep N, Haghi-Aminjan H, Haghmorad D, Hagins H, Haile D, Hailu A, Hajj Ali A, Halboub ES, Halimi A, Hall BJ, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hamdy NM, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Hammoud A, Hanif A, Hanifi N, Haq ZA, Haque MR, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasan MJ, Hasan SMM, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hashmeh N, Hasnain MS, Hassan A, Hassan I, Hassan Zadeh Tabatabaei MS, Hassani S, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Hegena TY, Heidari G, Heidari M, Helfer B, Hemmati M, Henson CA, Herbert ME, Herteliu C, Heuer A, Hezam K, Hinneh TK, Hiraike Y, Hoan NQ, Holla R, Hon J, Hoque ME, Horita N, Hossain S, Hosseini SE, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hoven H, Hsairi M, Hsu JM, Hu C, Huang J, Huda MN, Hulland EN, Hultström M, Hushmandi K, Hussain J, Hussein NR, Huynh CK, Huynh HH, Ibitoye SE, Idowu OO, Ihler AL, Ikeda N, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Inbaraj LR, Irham LM, Isa MA, Islam MR, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iwu-Jaja CJ, J V, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R, Jamora RDG, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayaram S, Jeganathan J, Jeswani BM, Jiang H, Johnson CO, Jokar M, Jomehzadeh N, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshi V, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kahn EM, Kalani R, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamath R, Kanagasabai T, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kansal SK, Kapner DJ, Kapoor N, Karagiannidis E, Karajizadeh M, Karakasis P, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karim A, Karimi H, Karmakar S, Kashoo FZ, Kasraei H, Kassahun WD, Kassebaum NJ, Kassel MB, Katikireddi SV, Kauppila JH, Kawakami N, Kaydi N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Kesse-Guyot E, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalil M, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan MN, Khan M, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khatib MN, Khavandegar A, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Khosla AA, Khosrowjerdi M, Khreis H, Khusun H, Kifle ZD, Kim K, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Koh DSQ, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Kong J, Koren G, Korja M, Korshunov VA, Korzh O, Kosen S, Kothari N, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamoorthy Y, Krishnan B, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kugbey N, Kuitunen I, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar N, Kumar V, Kundu S, Kurmi OP, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kutluk T, La Vecchia C, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lan Q, Lan T, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Le HH, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TTT, Leasher JL, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee YH, LeGrand KE, Leigh J, Leong E, Lerango TL, Lescinsky H, Leung J, Li MC, Li WZ, Li W, Li Y, Li Z, Ligade VS, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lin RT, Lin S, Liu C, Liu G, Liu J, Liu J, Liu RT, Liu S, Liu W, Liu X, Liu X, Livingstone KM, Llanaj E, Lohiya A, López-Bueno R, Lopukhov PD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Luo L, lv H, M Amin HI, Ma ZF, Maass KL, Mabrok M, Machairas N, Machoy M, Mafhoumi A, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghazachi AA, Mahadeshwara Prasad DR, Maharaj SB, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi E, Majeed A, Makram OM, Makris KC, Malasala S, Maled V, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malinga LA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Manla Y, Mansour A, Mansouri B, Mansouri P, Mansourian M, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Manu E, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Marsh E, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathioudakis AG, Matozinhos FP, Mattumpuram J, Maugeri A, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McLaughlin SA, McPhail MA, McPhail SM, Mechili EA, Mehmood A, Mehmood K, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Meier T, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekene Meto T, Mekonnen BD, Menezes RG, Mengist B, Mensah GA, Mensah LG, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mesfin BA, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Miazgowski T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Miller TR, Mirarefin M, Mirghafourvand M, Mirica A, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirshahi A, Mirzaei M, Mishra AK, Mishra V, Mitchell PB, Mithra P, Mittal C, Moazen B, Moberg ME, Mocciaro G, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed AZ, Mohamed AI, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed H, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moore CE, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosaddeghi Heris R, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mousavi P, Msherghi A, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Mullany EC, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Murlimanju BV, Musina AM, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Muthupandian S, Muthusamy R, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nafei A, Nagarajan AJ, Nagaraju SP, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Nainu F, Nair TS, Najdaghi S, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nanavaty DP, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Narimani Davani D, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Nashwan AJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Navaratna SNK, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nematollahi MH, Nepal S, Neupane S, Ng M, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen DH, Nguyen NNY, Nguyen PT, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Nguyen Tran Minh D, Niazi RK, Nicholson SI, Nie J, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor AR, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nunemo MH, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Oancea B, O'Connell EM, Odetokun IA, O'Donnell MJ, Oduro MS, Ogunfowokan AA, Ogunkoya A, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olasupo OO, Olatubi MI, Oliveira AB, Oliveira GMM, Olorukooba AA, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omar Bali A, Omer GL, Ong KL, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Oppong AF, Ordak M, Orish VN, Ornello R, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Prado E, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Owolabi MO, Oyeyemi IT, Oyeyemi OT, P A MP, Pacheco-Barrios K, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pal PK, Palicz T, Pan F, Pan HF, Pana A, Panda SK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Pantazopoulos I, Pantea Stoian AM, Papadopoulou P, Parent MC, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park S, Park S, Parsons N, Pashaei A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Peprah P, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Perna S, Pesudovs K, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pickering BV, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Piracha ZZ, Piradov MA, Pisoni E, Piyasena MP, Plass D, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Polkinghorne KR, Poluru R, Pond CD, Popovic DS, Porru F, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Pour-Rashidi A, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prabhu D, Prada SI, Pradhan J, Pradhan PMS, Prasad M, Prates EJS, Purnobasuki H, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Qiu S, Rabiee Rad M, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Raheem N, Rahim F, Rahim MJ, Rahimifard M, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MO, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani B, Rahmanian M, Rahmanian N, Rahmanian V, Rahmati M, Rahmawaty S, Raimondo D, Rajaa S, Rajendran V, Rajput P, Ramadan MM, Ramasamy SK, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Ramteke PW, Rana J, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rane A, Rani U, Ranta A, Rao CR, Rao M, Rao PC, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashidi M, Rashidi MM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Ratan ZA, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Rautalin I, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razo C, Reda ZFF, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Reifels L, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Restaino S, Reyes LF, Rezaei M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Riaz MA, Ribeiro ALP, Rickard J, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues CF, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Romadlon DS, Ronfani L, Rosauer JJ, Roshandel G, Rostamian M, Rotimi K, Rout HS, Roy B, Roy N, Rubagotti E, Ruela GDA, Rumisha SF, Runghien T, Russo M, Ruzzante SW, S N C, Saad AMA, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sacco S, Sachdev PS, Sachdeva R, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Sadeghi Majd E, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safari M, Safi S, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahu M, Saif Z, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salam N, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Salehi L, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salihu D, Salimi S, Salum GA, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanjeev RK, Sanna F, Santomauro DF, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Saraswathy SYI, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sattin D, Sawhney M, Saya GK, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Sayyah M, Schinckus C, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Schumacher AE, Schutte AE, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Selvaraj S, Semreen MH, Senthilkumaran S, Serban D, Serre ML, Sethi Y, Shafie M, Shah H, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shah SM, Shahbandi A, Shaheen AA, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shaikh SZ, Shalash AS, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shehabeldine AME, Shehzadi S, Sheikh A, Shen J, Shetty A, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Shiani A, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha R, Shrestha S, Shuja KH, Shuval K, Si Y, Siddig EE, Silva DAS, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Silva TPR, Simpson CR, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh B, Singh G, Singh H, Singh JA, Singh M, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Sinto R, Sivakumar S, Siwal SS, Skhvitaridze N, Skou ST, Sleet DA, Sobia F, Soboka M, Socea B, Solaimanian S, Solanki R, Solanki S, Soliman SSM, Somayaji R, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Spearman S, Spencer CN, Sreeramareddy CT, Stachteas P, Stafford LK, Stanaway JD, Stanikzai MH, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiner C, Steinke S, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Straif K, Stranges S, Subedi N, Subramaniyan V, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sundström J, Sunkersing D, Sunnerhagen KS, Suresh V, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabche C, Tabish M, Tadakamadla SK, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Takahashi K, Talaat IM, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tat NY, Taveira N, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Terefa DR, Teye-Kwadjo E, Thakur R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thayakaran R, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tolani MA, Tolossa T, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Trabelsi K, Tran JT, Tran MTN, Tran NM, Trico D, Trihandini I, Troeger CE, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Usman JS, Vaithinathan AG, Vakili O, Valenti M, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, van Donkelaar A, Varga O, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Vaziri S, Venketasubramanian N, Verghese NA, Verma M, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Villalobos-Daniel VE, Villani L, Villanueva GI, Vinayak M, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Waheed Y, Wang C, Wang F, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wanjau MN, Waqas M, Ward P, Waris A, Wassie EG, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Weiss EJ, Weldetinsaa HLL, Wells KM, Wen YF, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilkerson C, Willeit P, Wilson S, Wong YJ, Wongsin U, Wozniak S, Wu C, Wu D, Wu F, Wu Z, Xia J, Xiao H, Xu S, Xu X, Xu YY, Yadav MK, Yaghoubi S, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yaribeygi H, Yasufuku Y, Ye P, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yi S, Yiğit A, Yigzaw ZA, Yin D, Yip P, Yismaw MB, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yu Y, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zakzuk J, Zamagni G, Zaman SB, Zandieh GGZ, Zanghì A, Zar HJ, Zare I, Zarimeidani F, Zastrozhin MS, Zeng Y, Zhai C, Zhang AL, Zhang H, Zhang L, Zhang M, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhao JT, Zhao XJG, Zhao Y, Zhao Y, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhou J, Zhou S, Zhu B, Zhu L, Zhu Z, Ziaeian B, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zimsen SRM, Zoghi G, Zoller T, Zumla A, Zyoud SH, Zyoud SH, Murray CJL, Gakidou E. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2162-2203. [PMID: 38762324 PMCID: PMC11120204 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2024] [Revised: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 05/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. METHODS The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. FINDINGS Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). INTERPRETATION Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
8
|
Bourne RRA, Jonas JB, Friedman D, Nangia V, Bron A, Tapply I, Fernandes AG, Cicinelli MV, Arrigo A, Leveziel N, Resnikoff S, Taylor HR, Sedighi T, Bikbov MM, Braithwaite T, Cheng CY, Congdon N, Del Monte MA, Ehrlich JR, Fricke T, Furtado JM, Gazzard G, George R, Hartnett ME, Kahloun R, Kempen JH, Khairallah M, Khanna RC, Kim JE, Lansingh VC, Leasher J, Naidoo KS, Nowak M, Pesudovs K, Peto T, Ramulu P, Topouzis F, Tsilimbaris M, Wang YX, Wang N, Flaxman S, Bourne RRA, Jonas JB, Casson RJ, Friedman DS, Nangia V, Bron AM, Tapply I, Fernandes AG, Cicinelli MV, Leveziel N, Briant PS, Vos T, Resnikoff S, Abate YH, Abate MD, Dolatabadi ZA, Abdollahi M, Aboagye RG, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Adnani QES, Aghamiri S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmadieh H, Ahmadzadeh H, Ahmed A, Alfaar AS, Alinia C, Almidani L, Amu H, Androudi S, Anil A, Arabloo J, Areda D, Ashraf T, Bagherieh S, Baltatu OC, Baran MF, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bayileyegn NS, Bazvand F, Berhie AY, Bhatti JS, Bikbov M, Birck MG, Bitra VR, Bozic MM, Braithwaite T, Burkart K, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Cenderadewi M, Chattu VK, Coberly K, Dadras O, Dai X, Dascalu AM, Dastiridou A, Devanbu VGC, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Do THP, Do TC, Dziedzic AM, Ehrlich JR, Ekholuenetale M, Elhadi M, Emamian MH, Emamverdi M, Farrokhpour H, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Forouhari A, Fowobaje KR, Furtado JM, Gandhi AP, Gebregergis MWW, Goulart BNG, Gudeta MD, Gupta S, Gupta VK, Gupta VB, Heidari G, Hong SH, Huynh HH, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Immurana M, Jayapal SK, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kahloun R, Kandel H, Karaye IM, Kasraei H, Kebebew GM, Kempen JH, KhalafAlla MT, Khanal S, Khatib MN, Krishan K, Lahariya C, Leasher JL, Lim SS, Marzo RR, Maugeri A, Meng Y, Mestrovic T, Mishra M, Mohamed NS, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Momeni-Moghaddam H, Montazeri F, Mulita A, Murray CJL, Foodani MN, Naik GR, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negaresh M, Negash H, Nguyen DH, Oancea B, Olagunju AT, Olatubi MI, Osman WMS, Osuagwu UL, Padubidri JR, Panda-Jonas S, Pardhan S, Park S, Patel J, Perianayagam A, Pesudovs K, Pham HT, Prates EJS, Qattea I, Rahim F, Rahman M, Rapaka D, Rawaf S, Rezaei N, Roy P, Saddik B, Saeed U, Safi SZ, Safi S, Sakshaug JW, Saleh MA, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Saravanan A, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Shamim MA, Shannawaz M, Shashamo BB, Shayan M, Shittu A, Siddig EE, Singh JA, Solomon Y, Sousa RARC, Tabatabaei SM, Tabish M, Ticoalu JHV, Toma TM, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Valizadeh R, Viskadourou M, Wassie GT, Wickramasinghe ND, Yon DK, You Y, Flaxman S, Steinmetz JD. Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by glaucoma: A meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020. Eye (Lond) 2024:10.1038/s41433-024-02995-5. [PMID: 38565601 DOI: 10.1038/s41433-024-02995-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by glaucoma and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals. METHODS A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and grey literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends in number of people with vision loss due to glaucoma. Moderate or severe vision loss (MSVI) was defined as visual acuity of 6/60 or better but <6/18 (moderate) and visual acuity of 3/60 or better but <6/60 (severe vision loss). Blindness was defined as presenting visual acuity <3/60. RESULTS Globally, in 2020, 3.61 million people were blind and nearly 4.14 million were visually impaired by glaucoma. Glaucoma accounted for 8.39% (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]: 6.54, 10.29) of all blindness and 1.41% (95% UI: 1.10, 1.75) of all MSVI. Regionally, the highest proportion of blindness relating to glaucoma was found in high-income countries (26.12% [95% UI: 20.72, 32.09]), while the region with the highest age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness and MSVI was Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2020, global age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness among adults ≥50 years decreased by 26.06% among males (95% UI: 25.87, 26.24), and by 21.75% among females (95% UI: 21.54, 21.96), while MSVI due to glaucoma increased by 3.7% among males (95% UI: 3.42, 3.98), and by 7.3% in females (95% UI: 7.01, 7.59). CONCLUSIONS Within the last two decades, glaucoma has remained a major cause of blindness globally and regionally.
Collapse
|
9
|
Cicek B, Hacimuftuoglu A, Yeni Y, Kuzucu M, Genc S, Cetin A, Yavuz E, Danısman B, Levent A, Ozdokur KV, Kantarcı M, Docea AO, Siokas V, Tsarouhas K, Coleman MD, Tsatsakis A, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A. AuNPs with Cynara scolymus leaf extracts rescue arsenic-induced neurobehavioral deficits and hippocampal tissue toxicity in Balb/c mice through D1R and D2R activation. ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND PHARMACOLOGY 2024; 107:104417. [PMID: 38493879 DOI: 10.1016/j.etap.2024.104417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2023] [Accepted: 03/14/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024]
Abstract
The present study was designed to evaluate whether AuNPs (gold nanoparticles) synthesized with the Cynara scolymus (CS) leaf exert protective and/or alleviative effects on arsenic (As)-induced hippocampal neurotoxicity in mice. Neurotoxicity in mice was developed by orally treating 10 mg/kg/day sodium arsenite (NaAsO2) for 21 days. 10 µg/g AuNPs, 1.6 g/kg CS, and 10 µg/g CS-AuNPs were administered orally simultaneously with 10 mg/kg As. CS and CS-AuNPs treatments showed down-regulation of TNF-α and IL-1β levels. CS and CS-AuNPs also ameliorated apoptosis and reduced the alterations in the expression levels of D1 and D2 dopamine receptors induced by As. Simultaneous treatment with CS and CS-AuNPs improved As-induced learning, memory deficits, and motor coordination in mice assessed by water maze and locomotor tests, respectively. The results of this study provide evidence that CS-AuNPs demonstrated neuroprotective roles with antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-apoptotic effects, as well as improving D1 and D2 signaling, and eventually reversed neurobehavioral impairments.
Collapse
|
10
|
Mantadaki AE, Linardakis M, Vafeiadi M, Anastasiou F, Tsatsakis A, Symvoulakis EK. The Impact of Three-Month Quercetin Intake on Quality of Life and Anxiety in Patients With Type II Diabetes Mellitus: An Early Data Analysis From a Randomized Controlled Trial. Cureus 2024; 16:e58219. [PMID: 38745810 PMCID: PMC11091546 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.58219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/13/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diabetes is a high-prevalence, major chronic metabolic disease demanding effective interventions. Quercetin, a phytochemical with potential health benefits, has garnered interest for its therapeutic properties. AIM This study was designed to capture the early efficacy and clinical safety aspects following quercetin administration in patients with type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS The main study involved a randomized allocation procedure to assign non-insulin-treated patients attending the 4th Health Unit of Heraklion to intervention and control groups based on age and sex. The intervention group (n=50) received 500 mg of quercetin daily for 12 + (8 free intervals) + 12 weeks, alongside their usual treatment, while the control group (n=50) did not. After randomization, for the intermediary 12-week follow-up, data from 38 patients (intervention: 20; control: 18) were analyzed in this report. All subjects provided informed consent for the collection of anthropometric measurements, vital signs, daily habits data, and PiKo-6 spirometric readings. Additionally, participants responded to the Short Anxiety Screening Test (SAST) and the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) questionnaires. RESULTS Thirty-eight participants were included (60% men and 40% women in the intervention group; 38.9% men and 61.1% women in the control group). In the treatment arm, Forced Expiratory Volume in the first second (FEV1) measured with PiKo-6 showed a Δ%- change for the intervention arm: +6.8%, control: -0.2% (p=0.059), systolic blood pressure; intervention: -7.4%, control: -3.7% (p=0.117), waist circumference; intervention: -1.5% control: -0.7% (p=0.455) and night-time sleep; intervention: +5.3%, control: +1.4% (p=0.926) were favourably influenced. The treatment group exhibited significant enhancements in both anxiety levels assessed by the anxiety symptoms scale (SAST-10, p=0.026) and quality of life evaluated by the SF-36 (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Positive evidence is emerging for a pleiotropic effect of quercetin intake in patients with T2DM, specifically in terms of anxiety reduction and amelioration of life quality, in just 12 weeks of administration and without adverse effects, indicating clinical safety and underscoring its potential for integration in T2DM supportive care.
Collapse
|
11
|
Steinmetz JD, Seeher KM, Schiess N, Nichols E, Cao B, Servili C, Cavallera V, Cousin E, Hagins H, Moberg ME, Mehlman ML, Abate YH, Abbas J, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abbastabar H, Abdelmasseh M, Abdollahi M, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abd-Rabu R, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abedi A, Abedi V, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abrha WA, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Aburuz S, Adamu LH, Addo IY, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adekiya TA, Adikusuma W, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework T, Afolabi AA, Afraz A, Afzal S, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed JQ, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akade SE, Akbari M, Akbarialiabad H, Akhlaghi S, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemi RO, Akonde M, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, AL-Ahdal TMA, Al-amer RM, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Aldawsari KA, Alemi H, Alemi S, Algammal AM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alhassan RK, Ali A, Ali EA, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali MM, Ali R, Ali S, Ali SSS, Ali Z, Alif SM, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi AA, Aljofan M, Aljunid SM, Alladi S, Almazan JU, Almustanyir S, Al-Omari B, Alqahtani JS, Alqasmi I, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Shahi Salman R, Altaany Z, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Amzat J, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Angappan D, Angesom TW, Anil A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anwer R, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Ariffin H, Arifin H, Arkew M, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Artanti KD, Aruleba RT, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asena TF, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Ashraf T, Atalell KA, Athari SS, Atinafu BTT, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Avan A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayinde OO, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azizi Z, Azizian K, Azzam AY, Babaei M, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagherieh S, Bai R, Baig AA, Balakrishnan S, Balalla S, Baltatu OC, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banerjee I, Baran MF, Barboza MA, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrow A, Bashash D, Bashiri H, Bashiru HA, Basiru A, Basso JD, Basu S, Batiha AMM, Batra K, Baune BT, Bedi N, Begde A, Begum T, Behnam B, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Béjot Y, Bekele A, Belete MA, Belgaumi UI, Bemanalizadeh M, Bender RG, Benfor B, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berice B, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Bhadra A, Bhagat DS, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti R, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilalaga MM, Biswas A, Bitaraf S, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Boloor A, Braithwaite D, Brayne C, Brenner H, Briko A, Bringas Vega ML, Brown J, Budke CM, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Bustanji Y, Butt MH, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Cabral LS, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carvalho AF, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Casulli A, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cenderadewi M, Cerin E, Chacón-Uscamaita PRU, Chan JSK, Chanie GS, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chekol Abebe E, Chen H, Chen J, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chidambaram SB, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chitheer A, Chong YY, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Coberly K, Columbus A, Comachio J, Conde J, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Dabbagh Ohadi MA, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai X, Dai Z, D'Amico E, Danawi HA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darwish AH, Das S, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, De la Hoz FP, de la Torre-Luque A, De Leo D, Dean FE, Dehghan A, Dehghan A, Dejene H, Demant D, Demetriades AK, Demissie S, Deng X, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dhama K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dibas M, Ding DD, Dinu M, Dirac MA, Diress M, Do TC, Do THP, Doan KDK, Dodangeh M, Doheim MF, Dokova KG, Dongarwar D, Dsouza HL, Dube J, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dutta S, Dziedzic AM, Edinur HA, Eissazade N, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Nahas N, El Sayed I, Elahi Najafi MA, Elbarazi I, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, Elilo LT, Ellenbogen RG, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emamverdi M, Emeto TI, Endres M, Esezobor CI, Eskandarieh S, Fadaei A, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Faramarzi A, Fares J, Farjoud Kouhanjani M, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fathi M, Fathi S, Fatima SAF, Feizkhah A, Fereshtehnejad SM, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Firouraghi N, Fischer F, Fonseca AC, Force LM, Fornari A, Foroutan B, Fukumoto T, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Galali Y, Galehdar N, Gan Q, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Gardner WM, Garg N, Gau SY, Gautam RK, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel GG, Gebreslassie HG, Getacher L, Ghaderi Yazdi B, Ghadirian F, Ghaffarpasand F, Ghanbari R, Ghasemi M, Ghazy RM, Ghimire S, Gholami A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghotbi E, Ghozy S, Gialluisi A, Gill PS, Glasstetter LM, Gnedovskaya EV, Golchin A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gomes-Neto M, Goulart AC, Goyal A, Gray RJ, Grivna M, Guadie HA, Guan B, Guarducci G, Guicciardi S, Gunawardane DA, Guo H, Gupta B, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Hachinski V, Haddadi R, Hadei M, Hadi NR, Haep N, Haile TG, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Halwani R, Hameed S, Hamiduzzaman M, Hammoud A, Han H, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Hao J, Harapan H, Hareru HE, Hargono A, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hartman NN, Hasaballah AI, Hasan F, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hassan A, Hassan S, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hassen MB, Haubold J, Hay SI, Hayat K, Hegazy MI, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Hesami H, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoffman HJ, Holla R, Hopf KP, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain MB, Hossain S, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hu C, Huang J, Huda MN, Hussain J, Hussein NR, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ilaghi M, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Iravanpour F, Islam SMS, Ismail F, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyer M, Jaan A, Jacob L, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafari M, Jafarinia M, Jafarzadeh A, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jamora RDG, Jana S, Javadi N, Javed S, Javeed S, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jiang H, Johnson CO, Johnson WD, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kabito GG, Kadashetti V, Kafi F, Kalani R, Kalantar F, Kaliyadan F, Kamath A, Kamath S, Kanchan T, Kandel A, Kandel H, Kanmodi KK, Karajizadeh M, Karami J, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karimi A, Karimi H, Karimi Behnagh A, Kasraei H, Kassebaum NJ, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Kaur N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keller C, Keykhaei M, Khadembashiri MA, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khamesipour F, Khammarnia M, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khan YH, Khan Suheb MZ, Khanmohammadi S, Khanna T, Khatab K, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khateri S, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Khonji MS, khorashadizadeh F, Khormali M, Khubchandani J, Kian S, Kim G, Kim J, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kivimäki M, Kochhar S, Kolahi AA, Koly KN, Kompani F, Koroshetz WJ, Kosen S, Kourosh Arami M, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kuddus MA, Kumar A, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kumsa NB, Kundu S, Kurniasari MD, Kusuma D, Kuttikkattu A, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Ladan MA, Lahariya C, Laksono T, Lal DK, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lami FH, Landires I, Langguth B, Lasrado S, Latief K, Latifinaibin K, Lau KMM, Laurens MB, Lawal BK, Le LKD, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Leonardi M, Lerango TL, Li MC, Li W, Ligade VS, Lim SS, Linehan C, Liu C, Liu J, Liu W, Lo CH, Lo WD, Lobo SW, Logroscino G, Lopes G, Lopukhov PD, Lorenzovici L, Lorkowski S, Loureiro JA, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lutzky Saute R, Ma ZF, Mabrok M, Machoy M, Madadizadeh F, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghazachi AA, Maghbouli N, Mahjoub S, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Malagón-Rojas JN, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Mallhi TH, Malta DC, Manilal A, Mansouri V, Mansournia MA, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maroufi SF, Martinez-Raga J, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, März W, Marzo RR, Massano J, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathews E, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, Meena JK, Mehndiratta MM, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Mendoza W, Mendoza-Cano O, Menezes RG, Merati M, Meretoja A, Merkin A, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Mi T, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Mihretie ET, Minh LHN, Mirfakhraie R, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei M, Misganaw A, Misra S, Mithra P, Mizana BA, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi H, Mohammadi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadshahi M, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohan S, Mojiri-forushani H, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Molinaro S, Möller H, Monasta L, Moniruzzaman M, Montazeri F, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Motaghinejad M, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mughal F, Mukoro GD, Mulita A, Mulita F, Musaigwa F, Mustafa A, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Nainu F, Nair TS, Najmuldeen HHR, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nambi G, Namdar Areshtanab H, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Naser AY, Nashwan AJJ, Nasoori H, Nasreldein A, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Nayak BP, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negaresh M, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nematollahi MH, Nesbit OD, Newton CRJ, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen HQ, Nguyen NTT, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nikolouzakis TK, Niranjan V, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Oancea B, Odetokun IA, O'Donnell MJ, Ogunsakin RE, Oguta JO, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olana MD, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Omar Bali A, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Orji AU, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Osuagwu UL, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Owolabi MO, P A MP, Pacheco-Barrios K, Padubidri JR, Pal PK, Palange PN, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez RF, Pan F, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pandian JD, Pangaribuan HU, Pantazopoulos I, Pardhan S, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Patel J, Patil S, Patoulias D, Pawar S, Pedersini P, Pensato U, Pereira DM, Pereira J, Pereira MO, Peres MFP, Perico N, Perna S, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pham HT, Phillips MR, Pinilla-Monsalve GD, Piradov MA, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Polat B, Poluru R, Pond CD, Poudel GR, Pouramini A, Pourbagher-Shahri AM, Pourfridoni M, Pourtaheri N, Prakash PY, Prakash S, Prakash V, Prates EJS, Pritchett N, Purnobasuki H, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qian G, Radhakrishnan V, Raee P, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafique I, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Rahati MM, Rahim F, Rahimi Z, Rahimifard M, Rahman MO, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahmani Youshanlouei H, Rahmati M, Raj Moolambally S, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Ramadan H, Ramasamy SK, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Rancic N, Rao IR, Rao SJ, Rapaka D, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rashidi MM, Rashidi Alavijeh M, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rawaf S, Razo C, Redwan EMM, Rekabi Bana A, Remuzzi G, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Riad A, Robinson SR, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rogowski ELB, Romoli M, Ronfani L, Roy P, Roy Pramanik K, Rubagotti E, Ruiz MA, Russ TC, S Sunnerhagen K, Saad AMA, Saadatian Z, Saber K, SaberiKamarposhti M, Sacco S, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeed U, Safdarian M, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahraian MA, Sajedi SA, Sakshaug JW, Saleh MA, Salehi Omran H, Salem MR, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanadgol N, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Santomauro DF, Santri IN, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saravanan A, Sarveazad A, Satpathy M, Saylan M, Sayyah M, Scarmeas N, Schlaich MP, Schuermans A, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Selvaraj S, Sendekie AK, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Serban D, Sergindo MT, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seylani A, Shabani M, Shabany M, Shafie M, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid S, Shahraki-Sanavi F, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shaji KS, Sham S, Shama ATT, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Sharath M, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharma M, Sharma R, Shashamo BB, Shayan M, Sheikhi RA, Shekhar S, Shen J, Shenoy SM, Shetty PH, Shiferaw DS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shivakumar KM, Shokri F, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Siankam Tankwanchi AB, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Sinaei E, Singh BB, Singh G, Singh P, Singh S, Sirota SB, Sivakumar S, Sohag AAM, Solanki R, Soleimani H, Solikhah S, Solomon Y, Solomon Y, Song S, Song Y, Sotoudeh H, Spartalis M, Stark BA, Starnes JR, Starodubova AV, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sunkersing D, Sunny A, Susianti H, Swain CK, Szeto MD, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabai S, Tabish M, Taheri M, Tahvildari A, Tajbakhsh A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JJLL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tareke M, Tarigan IU, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Tavasol A, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye AH, Tesfaye EG, Tesler R, Thakali O, Thangaraju P, Thapa R, Thapar R, Thomas NK, Thrift AG, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Toghroli R, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran NM, Tran NH, Tran PV, Tromans SJ, Truelsen TC, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tualeka AR, Tufa DG, Ubah CS, Udoakang AJ, Ulhaq I, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Umapathi KK, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Vaithinathan AG, Vakilian A, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Villani L, Vinueza Veloz AF, Viskadourou M, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Volovat SR, Vu LT, Vujcic IS, Wagaye B, Waheed Y, Wahood W, Walde MT, Wang F, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Waqas M, Waris A, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weldemariam AH, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Willekens B, Wilner LB, Winkler AS, Wolfe CDA, Wu AM, Wulf Hanson S, Xu S, Xu X, Yadollahpour A, Yaghoubi S, Yahya G, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yehualashet SS, Yeshaneh A, Yesiltepe M, Yi S, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yusuf H, Zadey S, Zahedi M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zali A, Zamagni G, Zand R, Zandieh GGZ, Zangiabadian M, Zarghami A, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zegeye ZB, Zeukeng F, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhou H, Zhu B, Zhumagaliuly A, Zielińska M, Zikarg YT, Zoladl M, Murray CJL, Ong KL, Feigin VL, Vos T, Dua T. Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Neurol 2024; 23:344-381. [PMID: 38493795 PMCID: PMC10949203 DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(24)00038-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2023] [Revised: 01/23/2024] [Accepted: 01/26/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
12
|
Genc S, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A, Naldan ME, Gülcü O, Caglayan C, Spanakis M, Nikolouzakis TK, Alegakis A, Docea AO, Drocas AI, Mitrut R, Hatzidaki E, Spandidos DA, Tsatsakis A. Evaluation of various blood biomarkers associated with the outcomes of patients with COVID‑19 treated in intensive care units. Exp Ther Med 2024; 27:82. [PMID: 38274343 PMCID: PMC10809360 DOI: 10.3892/etm.2024.12371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/10/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the resulting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) represented a global public health crisis and the most significant pandemic in modern times. Transmission characteristics, and the lack of effective antiviral treatment protocol and protective vaccines, pushed healthcare systems, particularly intensive care units (ICUs), to their limits and led to extreme quarantine measures to control the pandemic. It was evident from an early stage that patient stratification approaches needed to be developed to better predict disease progression. In the present study, the predictive value of clinical and blood biomarkers for the outcomes of patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in the ICU were investigated, taking age and sex into consideration. The present study analyzed blood samples from 3,050 patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in the ICU. The analysis revealed that the levels of procalcitonin, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, D-dimer, ferritin, liver enzymes, C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase were increased and were associated with disease progression, resulting in a prolonged hospitalization period and severe COVID-19 related complications. Additionally, significant age and sex disparities among these biomarkers were documented and discussed in specific cases. On the whole, the results of the present study suggest a potential association of the demographic characteristics and blood biomarkers with prolonged hospitalization in the ICU and the mortality of patients with COVID-19.
Collapse
|
13
|
Skalny AV, Aschner M, Tsatsakis A, Rocha JB, Santamaria A, Spandidos DA, Martins AC, Lu R, Korobeinikova TV, Chen W, Chang JS, Chao JC, Li C, Tinkov AA. Role of vitamins beyond vitamin D 3 in bone health and osteoporosis (Review). Int J Mol Med 2024; 53:9. [PMID: 38063255 PMCID: PMC10712697 DOI: 10.3892/ijmm.2023.5333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/15/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
The objective of the present review was to summarize the molecular mechanisms associated with the effects of the vitamins A, C, E and K, and group B vitamins on bone and their potential roles in the development of osteoporosis. Epidemiological findings have demonstrated an association between vitamin deficiency and a higher risk of developing osteoporosis; vitamins are positively related to bone health upon their intake at the physiological range. Excessive vitamin intake can also adversely affect bone formation, as clearly demonstrated for vitamin A. Vitamins E (tocopherols and tocotrienols), K2 (menaquinones 4 and 7) and C have also been shown to promote osteoblast development through bone morphogenetic protein (BMP)/Smad and Wnt/β‑catenin signaling, as well as the TGFβ/Smad pathway (α‑tocopherol). Vitamin A metabolite (all‑trans retinoic acid) exerts both inhibitory and stimulatory effects on BMP‑ and Wnt/β‑catenin‑mediated osteogenesis at the nanomolar and micromolar range, respectively. Certain vitamins significantly reduce receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa‑B ligand (RANKL) production and RANKL/RANK signaling, while increasing the level of osteoprotegerin (OPG), thus reducing the RANKL/OPG ratio and exerting anti‑osteoclastogenic effects. Ascorbic acid can both promote and inhibit RANKL signaling, being essential for osteoclastogenesis. Vitamin K2 has also been shown to prevent vascular calcification by activating matrix Gla protein through its carboxylation. Therefore, the maintenance of a physiological intake of vitamins should be considered as a nutritional strategy for the prevention of osteoporosis.
Collapse
|
14
|
Tsatsakis A, Renieri E, Tsoukalas D, Buga AM, Sarandi E, Vakonaki E, Fragkiadaki P, Alegakis A, Nikitovic D, Calina D, Spandidos DA, Docea AO. A novel nutraceutical formulation increases telomere length and activates telomerase activity in middle‑aged rats. Mol Med Rep 2023; 28:232. [PMID: 37921058 PMCID: PMC10668076 DOI: 10.3892/mmr.2023.13119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2023] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 11/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Telomeres are major contributors to cell fate and aging through their involvement in cell cycle arrest and senescence. The accelerated attrition of telomeres is associated with aging‑related diseases, and agents able to maintain telomere length (TL) through telomerase activation may serve as potential treatment strategies. The aim of the present study was to assess the potency of a novel telomerase activator on TL and telomerase activity in vivo. The administration of a nutraceutical formulation containing Centella asiatica extract, vitamin C, zinc and vitamin D3 in 18‑month‑old rats for a period of 3 months reduced the telomere shortening rate at the lower supplement dose and increased mean the TL at the higher dose, compared to pre‑treatment levels. TL was determined using the Q‑FISH method in peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected from the tail vein of the rats and cultured with RPMI‑1640 medium. In both cases, TLs were significantly longer compared to the untreated controls (P≤0.001). In addition, telomerase activity was increased in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of both treatment groups. On the whole, the present study demonstrates that the nutraceutical formulation can maintain or even increase TL and telomerase activity in middle‑aged rats, indicating a potential role of this formula in the prevention and treatment of aging‑related diseases.
Collapse
|
15
|
Stancioiu F, Papadakis GZ, Lazopoulos G, Spandidos DA, Tsatsakis A, Floroiu M, Badiu C. Erratum: [Corrigendum] CD271 + stem cell treatment of patients with chronic stroke: A retrospective case series report. Exp Ther Med 2023; 26:544. [PMID: 37928505 PMCID: PMC10623212 DOI: 10.3892/etm.2023.12243] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2023] Open
Abstract
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3892/etm.2020.8948.].
Collapse
|
16
|
Docea AO, Cirstea AE, Cercelaru L, Drocas AI, Dinca V, Mesnage R, Marginean C, Radu A, Popa DG, Rogoveanu O, Mitrut R, Antoniou MN, Tsatsakis A, Hernández AF, Calina D. Effect of perinatal exposure to glyphosate and its mixture with 2,4-D and dicamba on rat dam kidney and thyroid function and offspring's health. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 237:116908. [PMID: 37597833 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116908] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2023] [Revised: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/21/2023]
Abstract
The increasing use of the herbicide mixture of glyphosate, dicamba and 2-4-D to deal with glyphosate-resistant weeds raises concerns regarding human health and environmental risks. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of developmental exposure to glyphosate and a herbicide mixture containing glyphosate, dicamba and 2-4-D on rat dams' kidney and thyroid function and offspring's health. Pregnant Wistar rats were exposed from day-6 of gestation till weaning to regulatory relevant doses of glyphosate corresponding to the European Union (EU) acceptable daily intake (ADI; 0.5 mg/kg bw/day), and the no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL; 50 mg/kg bw/day), and to a mixture of glyphosate, dicamba and 2,4-D all at the EU ADI (0.5, 0.002 and 0.3 mg/kg bw/day) respectively. After weaning the dams were sacrificed and blood and organs were collected. The pups' health was assessed by measuring viability, gestational and anogenital indices. Perinatal exposure to GLY alone and the herbicide mixture resulted in anti-androgenic effects in male offspring. In dams, exposure to glyphosate resulted in kidney glomerular and tubular dysfunction as well as increased thyroid hormone levels in a dose-dependent manner. Furthermore, exposure to the herbicide mixture resulted in effects similar to those observed with glyphosate at the NOAEL, suggesting at least an additive effect of the herbicide mixture at doses individually considered safe for humans.
Collapse
|
17
|
Mititelu M, Udeanu DI, Docea AO, Tsatsakis A, Calina D, Arsene AL, Nedelescu M, Neacsu SM, Bruno Ștefan Velescu, Ghica M. New method for risk assessment in environmental health: The paradigm of heavy metals in honey. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 236:115194. [PMID: 36587723 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.115194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2022] [Revised: 12/27/2022] [Accepted: 12/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
The release of heavy metals into the natural environment creates problems due to their persistence. They can accumulate in the food chain presenting a dangerous sign for ecosystems and human health. The metals in honey could be of agrochemical or industrial origin. Regular consumption of honey and bee products contaminated with various pollutants in high concentrations can cause serious health problems due accumulation of toxic substances in the body. In the current study, we aimed to determine the concentrations of chromium, cadmium, zinc, copper, lead and nickel in four types of honey (linden, acacia, rapeseed and polyfloral honey) and soil collected from three regions with different degrees of pollution. For the risk characterization, we used a new methodology that calculated the corrected estimated daily intake and the source hazard quotient for each metal and the adversity-specific hazard index. There was a strong influence of the degree of environmental pollution on the level of contaminants in the honey samples. In the case of a single chemical assessment, an HQ above 10 was obtained for Cd in linden, rapeseed and polyfloral honey from area 1 and an HQ above 1 was obtained for Cd in the other honey samples from the 3 areas, for Cu in all honey samples from all the 3 areas, for Pb in linden, rapeseed and polyfloral honey from area 1 and for Cr in linden honey for area 2. HIA calculated as a sum of all HQS of heavy metals in food reveals an increase and moderate risk for nephrotoxicity, bone demineralisation, cardiotoxicity, developmental toxicity, small decrease in body weight or body weight gain after consumption of honey impurified with heavy metals. A strict monitorization of heavy metals in honey samples from farmers should be done in order to protect the consumers.
Collapse
|
18
|
Celebi O, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A, Celebi D, Mesnage R, Golokhvast KS, Arsene AL, Spandidos DA, Tsatsakis A. [Corrigendum] Effect of the combination of Lactobacillus acidophilus (probiotic) with vitamin K3 and vitamin E on Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus: An in vitro pathogen model and metastasis in vivo. Mol Med Rep 2023; 28:223. [PMID: 37800600 PMCID: PMC10568252 DOI: 10.3892/mmr.2023.13110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/16/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Subsequently to the publication of the above paper, an interested reader drew to the authors' attention that, in Fig. 3B on p. 7 showing the results of immunohistochemistry staining experiments, the data panels shown for the 'L+K' and 'EC+E+K' groups were strikingly similar, such that they appeared to be derived from the same original source, where these panels were intended to show the results from differently performed experiments. The authors have re‑examined their original data, and realize that Fig. 3B was inadvertently assembled incorrectly; specifically, the data shown for the 'L+K' group in Fig. 3B were featured incorrectly. The revised version of Fig. 3, now containing the correct data for the 'L+K' experimental group in Fig. 3B is shown on the next page. Note that this error did not adversely affect either the results or the overall conclusions reported in this study. All the authors agree with the publication of this corrigendum. They also wish to apologize to the readership of the Journal for any inconvenience caused. [Molecular Medicine Reports 27: 119, 2023; DOI: 10.3892/mmr.2023.13006].
Collapse
|
19
|
Kakridonis F, Pneumatikos SG, Vakonaki E, Berdiaki A, Tzatzarakis MN, Fragkiadaki P, Spandidos DA, Baliou S, Ioannou P, Hatzidaki E, Nikitovic D, Tsatsakis A, Vasiliadis E. Telomere length as a predictive biomarker in osteoporosis (Review). Biomed Rep 2023; 19:87. [PMID: 37881605 PMCID: PMC10594068 DOI: 10.3892/br.2023.1669] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Telomeres are the ends of chromosomes that protect them from DNA damage. There is evidence to suggest that telomere shortening appears with advanced age. Since aging is a significant risk factor for developing age-related complications, it is plausible that telomere shortening may be involved in the development of osteoporosis. The present review summarizes the potential of telomere shortening as a biomarker for detecting the onset of osteoporosis. For the purposes of the present review, the following scientific databases were searched for relevant articles: PubMed/NCBI, Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews, Scopus, Embase and Google Scholar. The present review includes randomized and non-randomized controlled studies and case series involving humans, irrespective of the time of their publication. In six out of the 11 included studies providing data on humans, there was at least a weak association between telomere length and osteoporosis, with the remaining studies exhibiting no such association. As a result, telomere shortening may be used as a biomarker or as part of a panel of biomarkers for tracking the onset and progression of osteoporosis.
Collapse
|
20
|
Cicek B, Danısman B, Yildirim S, Yuce N, Nikitovic D, Bolat I, Kuzucu M, Ceyran E, Bardas E, Golokhvast KS, Tsatsakis A, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A. Flavonoid-Rich Sambucus nigra Berry Extract Enhances Nrf2/HO-1 Signaling Pathway Activation and Exerts Antiulcerative Effects In Vivo. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:15486. [PMID: 37895164 PMCID: PMC10607857 DOI: 10.3390/ijms242015486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2023] [Revised: 10/17/2023] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Sambucus nigra (SN) berry extract is characterized by high antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activity. The current study aimed to investigate the effect of SN berry extract against indomethacin (IND)-induced gastric ulcer in rats and the mechanism involved. SN berry extract alleviated IND-induced gastric ulcers, as shown by assessing pathological manifestations in the gastric mucosa. These protective effects are attributed to attenuated oxidative damage to the gastric mucosa, correlated to increased activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), enhanced glutathione (GSH) levels, total antioxidant capacity (TAC), and upregulation of the Nrf2/HO-1 cascade. Moreover, oxidative stress markers, including malondialdehyde (MDA) and total oxidant status (TOS), were downregulated in SN-extract-treated animals. Furthermore, SN berry extract suppressed gastric mucosal inflammation by downregulating interleukin (IL)-33, IL-1β, IL-6, and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) levels, and attenuating myeloperoxidase (MPO) activity. The protective effects of SN berry extract were similar to those exerted by esomeprazole (ESO), an acid-secretion-suppressive drug. In conclusion, SN berry extract has antiulcerative effects, alleviating oxidative stress and inflammation.
Collapse
|
21
|
Syed S, Qasim S, Ejaz M, Sammar, Khan N, Ali H, Zaker H, Hatzidaki E, Mamoulakis C, Tsatsakis A, Shah STA, Amir S. Effects of Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane on the Female Reproductive Tract Leading to Infertility and Cancer: Systematic Search and Review. TOXICS 2023; 11:725. [PMID: 37755736 PMCID: PMC10536953 DOI: 10.3390/toxics11090725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Revised: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/28/2023]
Abstract
Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) such as dichlorodimethyltrichloroethane (DDT) are present and ubiquitous in the environment due to their resilient nature. DDT is a prevalent endocrine disruptor still found in detectable amounts in organisms and the environment even after its use was banned in the 1970s. Medline and Google Scholar were systematically searched to detect all relevant animal and human studies published in the last 20 years (January 2003 to February 2023) in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. In total, 38 studies were included for qualitative synthesis. This systematic search and review indicated that exposure to DDT is associated with female reproductive health issues, such as reduced fecundability; increased risk of preterm/premature deliveries; increased periods of gestation; alterations in the synthesis of crucial reproductive hormones (Progesterone and Oxytocin) through ion imbalances and changes in prostaglandin synthesis, myometrial and stromal hypertrophy, and edema; and variations in uterine contractions through increased uterine wet weight. There was also limited evidence indicating DDT as a carcinogen sufficient to instigate reproductive cancers. However, this review only takes into account the in vitro studies that have established a possible pathway to understand how DDT impacts female infertility and leads to reproductive cancers. Links between the pathways described in various studies have been developed in this review to produce a summarized picture of how one event might lead to another. Additionally, epidemiological studies that specifically targeted the exposure to DDT of females belonging to various ethnicities have been reviewed to develop an overall picture of prevailing female reproductive health concerns in different nations.
Collapse
|
22
|
Nechalioti PM, Karampatzakis T, Mesnage R, Antoniou MN, Ibragim M, Tsatsakis A, Docea AO, Nepka C, Kouretas D. Evaluation of perinatal exposure of glyphosate and its mixture with 2,4-D and dicamba οn liver redox status in Wistar rats. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 228:115906. [PMID: 37062480 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Revised: 04/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Wide-scale emergence of glyphosate-resistant weeds has led to an increase in the simultaneous application of herbicide mixtures exacerbated by the introduction of crops tolerant to glyphosate plus dicamba or glyphosate plus 2,4-D. This raises serious concerns regarding the environmental and health risks resulting from increased exposure to a mixture of herbicide active ingredients. We evaluated hepatotoxic effects following perinatal exposure to glyphosate alone or in combination with 2,4-D and dicamba from gestational day-6 until adulthood in Wistar rats. Animals were administered with glyphosate at the European Union (EU) acceptable daily intake (ADI; 0.5 mg/kg bw/day) and no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL; 50 mg/kg bw/day). A mixture of glyphosate with 2,4-D (0.3 mg/kg bw/day) and dicamba (0.02 mg/kg bw/day) with each at their EU ADI was evaluated. Redox status was determined by measuring levels of reduced glutathione, decomposition rate of Η2Ο2, glutathione reductase, glutathione peroxidase, total antioxidant capacity, thiobarbituric reactive substances, and protein carbonyls. Gene expression analysis of Nr1d1, Nr1d2, Clec2g, Ier3, and Gadd45g associated with oxidative damage to DNA, was also performed. Analysis of liver samples showed that exposure to the mixture of the three herbicides induced a marked increase in the concentration of glutathione and malondialdehyde indicative of a disturbance in redox balance. Nevertheless, the effect of increased lipid peroxidation was not discernible following a 3-month recuperation period where animals were withdrawn from pesticide exposure post-weaning. Interestingly, toxic effects caused by prenatal exposure to the glyphosate NOAEL were present after the same 3-month recovery period. No statistically significant changes in the expression of genes linked with genotoxicity were observed. Our findings reinforce the importance of assessing the combined effects of chemical pollutants at doses that are asserted by regulatory agencies to be safe individually.
Collapse
|
23
|
Tsatsakis A, Oikonomopoulou T, Nikolouzakis TK, Vakonaki E, Tzatzarakis M, Flamourakis M, Renieri E, Fragkiadaki P, Iliaki E, Bachlitzanaki M, Karzi V, Katsikantami I, Kakridonis F, Hatzidaki E, Tolia M, Svistunov AA, Spandidos DA, Nikitovic D, Tsiaoussis J, Berdiaki A. Role of telomere length in human carcinogenesis (Review). Int J Oncol 2023; 63:78. [PMID: 37232367 PMCID: PMC10552730 DOI: 10.3892/ijo.2023.5526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 05/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Cancer is considered the most important clinical, social and economic issue regarding cause‑specific disability‑adjusted life years among all human pathologies. Exogenous, endogenous and individual factors, including genetic predisposition, participate in cancer triggering. Telomeres are specific DNA structures positioned at the end of chromosomes and consist of repetitive nucleotide sequences, which, together with shelterin proteins, facilitate the maintenance of chromosome stability, while protecting them from genomic erosion. Even though the connection between telomere status and carcinogenesis has been identified, the absence of a universal or even a cancer‑specific trend renders consent even more complex. It is indicative that both short and long telomere lengths have been associated with a high risk of cancer incidence. When evaluating risk associations between cancer and telomere length, a disparity appears to emerge. Even though shorter telomeres have been adopted as a marker of poorer health status and an older biological age, longer telomeres due to increased cell growth potential are associated with the acquirement of cancer‑initiating somatic mutations. Therefore, the present review aimed to comprehensively present the multifaceted pattern of telomere length and cancer incidence association.
Collapse
|
24
|
Sarandi E, Krueger-Krasagakis S, Tsoukalas D, Sidiropoulou P, Evangelou G, Sifaki M, Rudofsky G, Drakoulis N, Tsatsakis A. Psoriasis immunometabolism: progress on metabolic biomarkers and targeted therapy. Front Mol Biosci 2023; 10:1201912. [PMID: 37405259 PMCID: PMC10317015 DOI: 10.3389/fmolb.2023.1201912] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Psoriasis is a common inflammatory disease that affects mainly the skin. However, the moderate to severe forms have been associated with several comorbidities, such as psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease, metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease. Keratinocytes and T helper cells are the dominant cell types involved in psoriasis development via a complex crosstalk between epithelial cells, peripheral immune cells and immune cells residing in the skin. Immunometabolism has emerged as a potent mechanism elucidating the aetiopathogenesis of psoriasis, offering novel specific targets to diagnose and treat psoriasis early. The present article discusses the metabolic reprogramming of activated T cells, tissue-resident memory T cells and keratinocytes in psoriatic skin, presenting associated metabolic biomarkers and therapeutic targets. In psoriatic phenotype, keratinocytes and activated T cells are glycolysis dependent and are characterized by disruptions in the TCA cycle, the amino acid metabolism and the fatty acid metabolism. Upregulation of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) results in hyperproliferation and cytokine secretion by immune cells and keratinocytes. Metabolic reprogramming through the inhibition of affected metabolic pathways and the dietary restoration of metabolic imbalances may thus present a potent therapeutic opportunity to achieve long-term management of psoriasis and improved quality of life with minimum adverse effects.
Collapse
|
25
|
Karzi V, Ozcagli E, Tzatzarakis MN, Vakonaki E, Fragkiadoulaki I, Kalliantasi A, Chalkiadaki C, Alegakis A, Stivaktakis P, Karzi A, Makrigiannakis A, Docea AO, Calina D, Tsatsakis A. DNA Damage Estimation after Chronic and Combined Exposure to Endocrine Disruptors: An In Vivo Real-Life Risk Simulation Approach. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:9989. [PMID: 37373136 DOI: 10.3390/ijms24129989] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2023] [Revised: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Exposure to chemical substances has always been a matter of concern for the scientific community. During the last few years, researchers have been focusing on studying the effects resulting from combined exposure to different substances. In this study, we aimed to determine the DNA damage caused after chronic and combined exposure to substances characterized as endocrine disruptors using comet and micronuclei assays, specifically glyphosate (pure and commercial form), bisphenol A, parabens (methyl-, propyl- and butylparaben), triclosan and bis (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate. The highest mean tail intensity was observed in the group exposed to a high-dose (10 × ADI) mixture of substances (Group 3), with a mean value of 11.97 (11.26-13.90), while statistically significant differences were noticed between the groups exposed to low-dose (1 × ADI) (Group 2) and high-dose (10 × ADI) (Group 3) mixtures of substances (p = 0.003), and between Group 3 and both groups exposed to high doses (10 × ADI) of the pure and commercial forms of glyphosate (Groups 4 (p = 0.014) and 5 (p = 0.007)). The micronuclei assay results were moderately correlated with the exposure period. Group 5 was the most impacted exposure group at all sampling times, with mean MN counts ranging between 28.75 ± 1.71 and 60.75 ± 1.71, followed by Group 3 (18.25 ± 1.50-45.75 ± 1.71), showing that commercial forms of glyphosate additives as well as mixtures of endocrine disruptors can enhance MN formation. All exposure groups showed statistically significant differences in micronuclei counts with an increasing time trend.
Collapse
|
26
|
Celebi O, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A, Celebi D, Mesnage R, Golokhvast KS, Arsene AL, Spandidos DA, Tsatsakis A. Effect of the combination of Lactobacillus acidophilus (probiotic) with vitamin K3 and vitamin E on Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus: An in vitro pathogen model. Mol Med Rep 2023; 27:119. [PMID: 37144488 PMCID: PMC10196883 DOI: 10.3892/mmr.2023.13006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The gut microbiota plays a key role in maintaining health and regulating the host's immune response. The use of probiotics and concomitant vitamins can increase mucus secretion by improving the intestinal microbial population and prevent the breakdown of tight junction proteins by reducing lipopolysaccharide concentration. Changes in the intestinal microbiome mass affect multiple metabolic and physiological functions. Studies on how this microbiome mass and the regulation in the gastrointestinal tract are affected by probiotic supplements and vitamin combinations have attracted attention. The current study evaluated vitamins K and E and probiotic combinations effects on Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus. Minimal inhibition concentrations of vitamins and probiotics were determined. In addition, inhibition zone diameters, antioxidant activities and immunohistochemical evaluation of the cell for DNA damage were performed to evaluate the effects of vitamins and probiotics. At the specified dose intervals, L. acidophilus and vitamin combinations inhibit the growth of Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus. It could thus contribute positively to biological functions by exerting immune system‑strengthening activities.
Collapse
|
27
|
Genc S, Yagci T, Vageli DP, Dundar R, Doukas PG, Doukas SG, Tolia M, Chatzakis N, Tsatsakis A, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A. Exosomal MicroRNA-223, MicroRNA-146, and MicroRNA-21 Profiles and Biochemical Changes in Laryngeal Cancer. ACS Pharmacol Transl Sci 2023; 6:820-828. [PMID: 37200807 PMCID: PMC10186621 DOI: 10.1021/acsptsci.3c00038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) is one of the most aggressive cancers, and its early diagnosis is urgent. Exosomes are believed to have diagnostic significance in cancer. However, the role of serum exosomal microRNAs, miR-223, miR-146, and miR-21, and phosphatase and tensin homologue (PTEN) and hemoglobin subunit delta (HBD) mRNAs in LSCC is unclear. Exosomes were isolated from the blood serum of 10 LSCC patients and 10 healthy controls to perform scanning electron microscopy and liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry analyses to characterize them and to undergo reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction to identify miR-223, miR-146, miR-21, and PTEN and HBD mRNA expression phenotypes. Biochemical parameters, including serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and vitamin B12, were also obtained. Serum exosomes of 10-140 nm were isolated from LSCC and controls. Serum exosomal miR-223, miR-146, and PTEN were found to be significantly decreased (p < 0.05), in contrast to serum exosomal miRNA-21 (p < 0.01), and serum vitamin B12 and CRP (p < 0.05) were found to be significantly increased, in LSCC vs controls. Our novel data show that the combination of reduced serum exosomal miR-223, miR-146, and miR-21 profiles and biochemical alterations in CRP and vitamin B12 levels may be useful indicators of LSCC that could be validated by large studies. Our findings also suggest a possible negative regulatory effect of miR-21 on PTEN in LSCC, encouraging a more extensive investigation of its role.
Collapse
|
28
|
Aschner M, Skalny AV, Gritsenko VA, Kartashova OL, Santamaria A, Rocha JBT, Spandidos DA, Zaitseva IP, Tsatsakis A, Tinkov AA. Role of gut microbiota in the modulation of the health effects of advanced glycation end‑products (Review). Int J Mol Med 2023; 51:44. [PMID: 37052251 DOI: 10.3892/ijmm.2023.5247] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 04/14/2023] Open
Abstract
The aim of the present review was to summarize the potential interactive effects between the gut microbiota and advanced glycation end‑product (AGE) accumulation and toxicity in the host, and to reveal potential the mediatory effects of the gut microbiota on AGE‑related health effects. The existing data demonstrate that dietary AGEs can have a significant impact on the richness and diversity of the gut microbiota, although the particular effect is dependent on the type of species, as well as the exposure dose. In addition, the gut microbiota may metabolize dietary AGEs. It has been also demonstrated that the characteristics of the gut microbiota, including its richness and relative abundance of certain taxa, is tightly associated with AGE accumulation in the host organism. In turn, a bilateral interplay between AGE toxicity and the modulation of the gut microbiota may contribute to pathogenesis of ageing and diabetes‑associated diseases. Bacterial endotoxin lipopolysaccharide appears as the molecule that mediates the interactions between the gut microbiota and AGE toxicity, specifically via the modulation of the receptor for AGE signaling. Therefore, it is proposed that the modulation of the gut microbiota using probiotics or other dietary interventions may have a significant impact on AGE‑induced glycative stress and systemic inflammation.
Collapse
|
29
|
Cicek B, Hacimuftuoglu A, Yeni Y, Danisman B, Ozkaraca M, Mokhtare B, Kantarci M, Spanakis M, Nikitovic D, Lazopoulos G, Tsarouhas K, Tsatsakis A, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A. Chlorogenic Acid Attenuates Doxorubicin-Induced Oxidative Stress and Markers of Apoptosis in Cardiomyocytes via Nrf2/HO-1 and Dityrosine Signaling. J Pers Med 2023; 13:jpm13040649. [PMID: 37109035 PMCID: PMC10140899 DOI: 10.3390/jpm13040649] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2023] [Accepted: 04/04/2023] [Indexed: 04/29/2023] Open
Abstract
(1) Background: Doxorubicin (DOX) is extensively used for cancer treatments; however, its clinical application is limited because of its cardiotoxic adverse effects. A combination of DOX and agents with cardioprotective properties is an effective strategy to ameliorate DOX-related cardiotoxicity. Polyphenolic compounds are ideal for the investigation of novel cardioprotective agents. Chlorogenic acid (CGA), an essential dietary polyphenol found in plants, has been previously reported to exert antioxidant, cardioprotective, and antiapoptotic properties. The current research evaluated CGA's in vivo cardioprotective properties in DOX-induced cardiotoxicity and the probable mechanisms underlying this protection. (2) Methods: CGA's cardioprotective properties were investigated in rats that were treated with CGA (100 mg/kg, p.o.) for fourteen days. The experimental model of cardiotoxicity was induced with a single intraperitoneal (15 mg/kg i.p.) injection of DOX on the 10th day. (3) Results: Treatment with CGA significantly improved the DOX-caused altered cardiac damage markers (LDH, CK-MB, and cTn-T), and a marked improvement in cardiac histopathological features accompanied this. DOX downregulated the expression of Nrf2/HO-1 signaling pathways, and the CGA reversed this effect. Consistently, caspase-3, an apoptotic-related marker, and dityrosine expression were suppressed, while Nrf2 and HO-1 expressions were elevated in the cardiac tissues of DOX-treated rats after treatment with the CGA. Furthermore, the recovery was confirmed by the downregulation of 8-OHdG and dityrosine (DT) expressions in immunohistochemical findings. (4) Conclusions: CGA demonstrated a considerable cardioprotective effect against DOX-induced cardiotoxicity. One of the possible mechanisms for these protective properties was the upregulation of the Nrf2/HO-1-dependent pathway and the downregulation of DT, which may ameliorate oxidative stress and cardiomyocyte apoptosis. These findings suggest that CGA may be cardioprotective, particularly in patients receiving DOX-based chemotherapy.
Collapse
|
30
|
Gori GB, Aschner M, Borgert CJ, Cohen SM, Dietrich DR, Galli CL, Greim H, Heslop-Harrison JS, Kacew S, Kaminski NE, Klaunig JE, Marquardt HWJ, Pelkonen O, Roberts R, Savolainen KM, Tsatsakis A, Yamazaki H. US regulations to curb alleged cancer causes are ineffectual and compromised by scientific, constitutional and ethical violations. Arch Toxicol 2023; 97:1813-1822. [PMID: 37029818 PMCID: PMC10182921 DOI: 10.1007/s00204-022-03429-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 04/09/2023]
Abstract
The 1958 Delaney amendment to the Federal Food Drug and Cosmetics Act prohibited food additives causing cancer in animals by appropriate tests. Regulators responded by adopting chronic lifetime cancer tests in rodents, soon challenged as inappropriate, for they led to very inconsistent results depending on the subjective choice of animals, test design and conduct, and interpretive assumptions. Presently, decades of discussions and trials have come to conclude it is impossible to translate chronic animal data into verifiable prospects of cancer hazards and risks in humans. Such conclusion poses an existential crisis for official agencies in the US and abroad, which for some 65 years have used animal tests to justify massive regulations of alleged human cancer hazards, with aggregated costs of $trillions and without provable evidence of public health advantages. This article addresses suitable remedies for the US and potentially worldwide, by critically exploring the practices of regulatory agencies vis-á-vis essential criteria for validating scientific evidence. According to this analysis, regulations of alleged cancer hazards and risks have been and continue to be structured around arbitrary default assumptions at odds with basic scientific and legal tests of reliable evidence. Such practices raise a manifold ethical predicament for being incompatible with basic premises of the US Constitution, and with the ensuing public expectations of testable truth and transparency from government agencies. Potential remedies in the US include amendments to the US Administrative Procedures Act, preferably requiring agencies to justify regulations compliant with the Daubert opinion of the Daubert ruling of the US Supreme Court, which codifies the criteria defining reliable scientific evidence. International reverberations are bound to follow what remedial actions may be taken in the US, the origin of current world regulatory procedures to control alleged cancer causing agents.
Collapse
|
31
|
Dinca V, Docea AO, Drocas AI, Nikolouzakis TK, Stivaktakis PD, Nikitovic D, Golokhvast KS, Hernandez AF, Calina D, Tsatsakis A. A mixture of 13 pesticides, contaminants, and food additives below individual NOAELs produces histopathological and organ weight changes in rats. Arch Toxicol 2023; 97:1285-1298. [PMID: 36892595 PMCID: PMC10110652 DOI: 10.1007/s00204-023-03455-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 02/02/2023] [Indexed: 03/10/2023]
Abstract
The current approach for the risk assessment of chemicals does not account for the complex human real-life exposure scenarios. Exposure to chemical mixtures in everyday life has raised scientific, regulatory, and societal concerns in recent years. Several studies aiming to identify the safety limits of chemical mixtures determined hazardous levels lower than those of separate chemicals. Following these observations, this study built on the standards set by the real-life risk simulation (RLRS) scenario and investigated the effect of long-term exposure (18 months) to a mixture of 13 chemicals (methomyl, triadimefon, dimethoate, glyphosate, carbaryl, methyl parathion, aspartame, sodium benzoate, EDTA, ethylparaben, butylparaben, bisphenol A and acacia gum) in adult rats. Animals were divided into four dosing groups [0xNOAEL (control), 0.0025xNOAEL (low dose-LD), 0.01xNOAEL (medium dose-MD) and 0.05xNOAEL (high dose-HD) (mg/kg BW/day)]. After 18 months of exposure, all animals were sacrificed, and their organs were harvested, weighed, and pathologically examined. While organ weight tended to be higher in males than in females, when sex and dose were taken into account, lungs and hearts from female rats had significantly greater weight than that of males. This discrepancy was more obvious in the LD group. Histopathology showed that long-term exposure to the chemical mixture selected for this study caused dose-dependent changes in all examined organs. The main organs that contribute to chemical biotransformation and clearance (liver, kidneys, and lungs) consistently presented histopathological changes following exposure to the chemical mixture. In conclusion, exposure to very low doses (below the NOAEL) of the tested mixture for 18 months induced histopathological lesions and cytotoxic effects in a dose and tissue-dependent manner.
Collapse
|
32
|
Danisman B, Cicek B, Yildirim S, Bolat I, Kantar D, Golokhvast KS, Nikitovic D, Tsatsakis A, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A. Carnosic Acid Ameliorates Indomethacin-Induced Gastric Ulceration in Rats by Alleviating Oxidative Stress and Inflammation. Biomedicines 2023; 11:biomedicines11030829. [PMID: 36979808 PMCID: PMC10045571 DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines11030829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Revised: 02/19/2023] [Accepted: 03/04/2023] [Indexed: 03/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) such as aspirin and indomethacin (IND) are the most commonly prescribed for inflammation or pain. However, widespread use causes several adverse effects, such as gastric ulcers, upper gastric system bleeding, and erosions. Carnosic acid (CA) is an important natural antioxidant found in rosemary (Rosmarinus essentials) and exhibits a protective effect by suppressing oxidative stress and inflammation. This study aimed to investigate the impact of CA on IND-induced gastric ulceration. Wistar male rats received CA (100 mg/kg) or esomeprazole (ESP) (20 mg/kg, standard drug) by oral gavage for 14 days, after that gastric ulceration was induced by oral administration of 100 mg/kg IND. CA pretreatment attenuated both gross morphological lesions and histopathological alterations. CA strongly reduced IND-induced oxidative stress, verified by a decrease in MDA (p < 0.001) and TOS levels (p < 0.05). Furthermore, an IND-dependent increase in CAT (p < 0.001) and GPx (p < 0.01) activities, as well as a reduction in GSH levels (p < 0.01), were ameliorated by CA pretreatment. CA also attenuated inflammatory damage by suppressing IL-1β (p < 0.01), IL-6 (p < 0.01), and TNFα (p < 0.001) production and increasing Nrf2/HO-1 (p < 0.05) expressions. In conclusion, CA shows a gastroprotective effect by reducing oxidative stress and attenuating inflammation.
Collapse
|
33
|
Dardiotis E, Skouras P, Varvarelis OP, Aloizou AM, Hernández AF, Liampas I, Rikos D, Dastamani M, Golokhvast KS, Bogdanos DP, Tsatsakis A, Siokas V, Mitsias PD, Hadjigeorgiou GM. Pesticides and tremor: An overview of association, mechanisms and confounders. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 229:115442. [PMID: 36758916 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115442] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2022] [Revised: 02/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Pesticides are a heterogeneous class of chemicals mainly used for the protection of crops from pests. Because of their very widespread use, acute or/and chronic exposure to these chemicals can lead to a plethora of sequelae inflicting diseases, many of which involve the nervous system. Tremor has been associated with pesticide exposure in human and animal studies. This review is aimed at assessing the studies currently available on the association between the various types of pesticides/insecticides and tremor, while also accounting for potential confounding factors. To our knowledge, this is the first coherent review on the subject. After appraising the available evidence, we call for more intensive research on this topic, as well as intonate the need of implementing future preventive measures to protect the exposed populations and to reduce potential disabilities and social drawbacks.
Collapse
|
34
|
Pikula K, Kirichenko K, Chernousov V, Parshin S, Masyutin A, Parshina Y, Pogodaev A, Gridasov A, Tsatsakis A, Golokhvast K. The Impact of Metal-Based Nanoparticles Produced by Different Types of Underwater Welding on Marine Microalgae. TOXICS 2023; 11:105. [PMID: 36850981 PMCID: PMC9966890 DOI: 10.3390/toxics11020105] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Revised: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 01/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Underwater wet welding is commonly used in joining pipelines and in underwater construction. Harmful and hazardous compounds are added to many flux-cored wires for underwater welding and cutting, and can have a negative impact on marine life. The specific objective of this study was to evaluate the aquatic toxicity of two suspension samples obtained using welding electrode and flux-cored wire in marine microalgae Attheya ussuriensis and Porphyridium purpureum. Growth rate inhibition, cell size, and biochemical changes in microalgae were evaluated by flow cytometry. The results of the bioassay demonstrated that the suspension obtained after welding with electrode had an acute toxic impact on diatomic microalgae A. ussuriensis, and both tested suspensions revealed chronic toxicity in this microalga with a 40% growth rate inhibition after exposure to 40-50% of prepared suspensions for 7 days. Red algae P. purpureum revealed tolerance to both suspensions caused by exopolysaccharide covering, which prevents the toxic impact of metal cations such as Al, Ti, Mn, Fe, and Zn, which are considered the main toxic components of underwater welding emissions.
Collapse
|
35
|
Anesti O, Papaioannou N, Gabriel C, Karakoltzidis A, Dzhedzheia V, Petridis I, Stratidakis A, Dickinson M, Horvat M, Snoj Tratnik J, Tsatsakis A, Karakitsios S, Sarigiannis DA. An exposome connectivity paradigm for the mechanistic assessment of the effects of prenatal and early life exposure to metals on neurodevelopment. Front Public Health 2023; 10:871218. [PMID: 36699871 PMCID: PMC9869756 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.871218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2022] [Accepted: 09/28/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
The exposome paradigm through an integrated approach to investigating the impact of perinatal exposure to metals on child neurodevelopment in two cohorts carried out in Slovenia (PHIME cohort) and Greece (HERACLES cohort) respectively, is presented herein. Heavy metals are well-known neurotoxicants with well-established links to impaired neurodevelopment. The links between in utero and early-life exposure to metals, metabolic pathway dysregulation, and neurodevelopmental disorders were drawn through urinary and plasma untargeted metabolomics analysis, followed by the combined application of in silico and biostatistical methods. Heavy metal prenatal and postnatal exposure was evaluated, including parameters indirectly related to exposure and health adversities, such as sociodemographic and anthropometric parameters and dietary factors. The primary outcome of the study was that the identified perturbations related to the TCA cycle are mainly associated with impaired mitochondrial respiration, which is detrimental to cellular homeostasis and functionality; this is further potentiated by the capacity of heavy metals to induce oxidative stress. Insufficient production of energy from the mitochondria during the perinatal period is associated with developmental disorders in children. The HERACLES cohort included more detailed data regarding diet and sociodemographic status of the studied population, allowing the identification of a broader spectrum of effect modifiers, such as the beneficial role of a diet rich in antioxidants such as lycopene and ω-3 fatty acids, the negative effect the consumption of food items such as pork and chicken meat has or the multiple impacts of fish consumption. Beyond diet, several other factors have been proven influential for child neurodevelopment, such as the proximity to pollution sources (e.g., waste treatment site) and the broader living environment, including socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Overall, our results demonstrate the utility of exposome-wide association studies (EWAS) toward understanding the relationships among the multiple factors that determine human exposure and the underlying biology, reflected as omics markers of effect on neurodevelopment during childhood.
Collapse
|
36
|
Tyshko NV, Nikitin NS, Shestakova SI, Sadykova EO, Trebukh MD, Guseva GV, Trusov NV, Aksenov IV, Golokhvast KS, Tsatsakis A, Tutelyan VA. Systemic Biomarkers and Liver Morphology in Rats during Chronic Low-Dose Toxicant Administration against the Background of Vitamin Deficiency. Bull Exp Biol Med 2023; 174:365-369. [PMID: 36729327 DOI: 10.1007/s10517-023-05709-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
Liver morphology, intensity of apoptosis, and activity of xenobiotic metabolism enzymes were studied in a chronic model experiment in rats receiving a mixture of 6 pesticides against the background of life-long diets with adequate and insufficient supply of water-soluble vitamins. The dose of each pesticide in the mixture did not exceed the acceptable daily intake (1 ADI). It was found that chronic exposure to low doses of anthropogenic toxicants in combination with permanent vitamin deficiency provokes a number of liver changes, such as increased apoptosis activity, cytochrome P450 system depletion, steatosis, and inflammatory infiltration, which is a potential health risk factor.
Collapse
|
37
|
Onishchenko G, Nikolayeva N, Rakitskii V, Ilnitskaya A, Filin A, Korolev A, Nikitenko E, Denisova E, Tsakalof A, Guseva E, Kuzmin S, Tsatsakis A. Comprehensive study of health effects of plasma technology occupational environment: Exposure to high frequency and intensity noise and toxic gases. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 216:114691. [PMID: 36341799 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2022] [Revised: 10/25/2022] [Accepted: 10/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To evaluate on animal models the health effects of the combined or separate exposure to main chemical and physical hazards of plasma-based material processing technology environment. MATERIALS AND METHODS Male Wistar rats were exposed to actual levels of hazardous factors in plasma technology occupational environment: i.e., ozone and nitrogen oxides (O3 and NOx) in respective concentrations of 0.5 mg/m3 and 1.0 mg/m3 and high-frequency (1000-1600 Hz) of 112 dB intensity noise for 3 h/day, 5 days/week for 12 weeks, with a recovery period of 1 month. RESULTS Exposure to noise or its combination with chemical factors (ozone, nitrogen oxides) causes non-specific CNS changes testifying for significant excitation dominance, especially in the case of joint exposure. Histological examination of rats' brain in experimental revealed a pronounced increase in blood filling of small vessels on the tenth day of the experiment, with subsequent intensification of vascular alterations and eventually to cerebral edema. The exposure to noise significantly reduced total thymus, bone marrow and spleen cell numbers and these was also more pronounced under the joint impact of noise and toxic gases. Thymus, but not bone marrow or spleen, mitotic activity was as well reduced under the same modes of exposure. Cytological investigation of film preparations of subcutaneous connective tissue revealed that joint exposure led to microcirculatory disorders, increased number of dark mast cells and reduced degranulation processes indicative of increased autoregulatory processes effective at microvasculature level. CONCLUSIONS High-frequency and intensity noise is main stressor factor that has negative impact on CNS and immune system, morphology and functioning of hematopoietic organs (spleen, bone marrow, thymus) and connective tissue. Its negative impact is significantly potentiated by concurrent exposure to ozone and nitrogen oxide, while exposure only to these toxic gases has no significant effect on the above targets.
Collapse
|
38
|
Radu-Loghin C, Mocanu K, Al Gouhmani H, Vardavas C, Lagou I, Plyta Z, Papathanasaki A, Vogiatzidaki S, Vardavas A, Tzatzarakis M, Tsatsakis A, Filippidis F, Kyriakos C, Fernandez E, Tigova O, Martinez C, Luque AML, Eremia M, Lotrean LM, Trofor A, Wenzl T, Simpson B, Powell P, Starchenko P, Bakou A, Asimaki E, Vivilaki V. EUREST-RISE: An innovative networking and training project on European Tobacco Control. Tob Prev Cessat 2023; 9:12. [PMID: 37101785 PMCID: PMC10123401 DOI: 10.18332/tpc/163137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/13/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2023]
|
39
|
Kostoff RN, Briggs MB, Kanduc D, Dewanjee S, Kandimalla R, Shoenfeld Y, Porter AL, Tsatsakis A. Modifiable contributing factors to COVID-19: A comprehensive review. Food Chem Toxicol 2023; 171:113511. [PMID: 36450305 PMCID: PMC9701571 DOI: 10.1016/j.fct.2022.113511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Revised: 11/01/2022] [Accepted: 11/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The devastating complications of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) result from an individual's dysfunctional immune response following the initial severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Multiple toxic stressors and behaviors contribute to underlying immune system dysfunction. SARS-CoV-2 exploits the dysfunctional immune system to trigger a chain of events ultimately leading to COVID-19. The current study identifies eighty immune system dysfunction-enabling toxic stressors and behaviors (hereafter called modifiable contributing factors (CFs)) that also link directly to COVID-19. Each CF is assigned to one of the five categories in the CF taxonomy shown in Section 3.3.: Lifestyle (e.g., diet, substance abuse); Iatrogenic (e.g., drugs, surgery); Biotoxins (e.g., micro-organisms, mycotoxins); Occupational/Environmental (e.g., heavy metals, pesticides); Psychosocial/Socioeconomic (e.g., chronic stress, lower education). The current study shows how each modifiable factor contributes to decreased immune system capability, increased inflammation and coagulation, and increased neural damage and neurodegeneration. It is unclear how real progress can be made in combatting COVID-19 and other similar diseases caused by viral variants without addressing and eliminating these modifiable CFs.
Collapse
|
40
|
Babaeimarzangou SS, Zaker H, Soleimannezhadbari E, Gamchi NS, Kazeminia M, Tarighi S, Seyedian H, Tsatsakis A, Spandidos DA, Margina D. Vaccine development for zoonotic viral diseases caused by positive‑sense single‑stranded RNA viruses belonging to the Coronaviridae and Togaviridae families (Review). Exp Ther Med 2022; 25:42. [PMID: 36569444 PMCID: PMC9768462 DOI: 10.3892/etm.2022.11741] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Outbreaks of zoonotic viral diseases pose a severe threat to public health and economies worldwide, with this currently being more prominent than it previously was human history. These emergency zoonotic diseases that originated and transmitted from vertebrates to humans have been estimated to account for approximately one billion cases of illness and have caused millions of deaths worldwide annually. The recent emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (coronavirus disease 2019) is an excellent example of the unpredictable public health threat causing a pandemic. The present review summarizes the literature data regarding the main vaccine developments in human clinical phase I, II and III trials against the zoonotic positive-sense single-stranded RNA viruses belonging to the Coronavirus and Alphavirus genera, including severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle east respiratory syndrome, Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus, Semliki Forest virus, Ross River virus, Chikungunya virus and O'nyong-nyong virus. That there are neither vaccines nor effective antiviral drugs available against most of these viruses is undeniable. Therefore, new explosive outbreaks of these zoonotic viruses may surely be expected. The present comprehensive review provides an update on the status of vaccine development in different clinical trials against these viruses, as well as an overview of the present results of these trials.
Collapse
|
41
|
Celebi D, Taghizadehghalehjoughi A, Baser S, Genc S, Yilmaz A, Yeni Y, Yesilyurt F, Yildirim S, Bolat I, Kordali S, Yilmaz F, Hacimuftuoglu A, Celebi O, Margina D, Nitulescu GM, Spandidos DA, Tsatsakis A. Effects of boric acid and potassium metaborate on cytokine levels and redox stress parameters in a wound model infected with methicillin‑resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Mol Med Rep 2022; 26:294. [PMID: 35920188 PMCID: PMC9366158 DOI: 10.3892/mmr.2022.12809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are usually found in hospital settings and, frequently, in patients with open wounds. One of the most critical virulence factors affecting the severity and recurrence of infections is the biofilm; increasing antibiotic resistance due to biofilm formation has led to the search for alternative compounds to antibiotics. The present study aimed to use boric acid and potassium metaborate against MRSA infection in a fibroblast wound model. For this purpose, a two-part experiment was designed: First, MRSA strains were used for the test, and both boric acid and potassium metaborate were prepared in microdilution. In the second step, an MRSA wound model was prepared using a fibroblast culture, and treatments with boric acid and potassium metaborate were applied for 24 h. For the evaluation of the effects of treatment, cell viability assay (MTT assay), analysis of redox stress parameters, including total oxidant status and total antioxidant capacity analyses, lactate dehydrogenase analysis and immunohistochemical staining were performed. In addition, IL-1β and IL-10 gene expression levels were assayed. According to the results, potassium metaborate was more effective and exhibited a lower toxicity to fibroblast cells compared to boric acid; moreover, potassium metaborate decreased the level of prooxidant species and increased the antioxidant status more effectively than boric acid. The IL-1β level in the bacteria group was high; however, boric acid and potassium metaborate significantly decreased the expression levels of inflammatory markers, exhibiting the potential to improve the resolution of the lesion. On the whole, the findings of the present study suggest that boric acid and potassium metaborate may be effective on the tested microorganisms.
Collapse
|
42
|
Agathokleous E, Barceló D, Aschner M, Azevedo RA, Bhattacharya P, Costantini D, Cutler GC, De Marco A, Docea AO, Dórea JG, Duke SO, Efferth T, Fatta-Kassinos D, Fotopoulos V, Ginebreda A, Guedes RNC, Hayes AW, Iavicoli I, Kalantzi OI, Koike T, Kouretas D, Kumar M, Manautou JE, Moore MN, Paoletti E, Peñuelas J, Picó Y, Reiter RJ, Rezaee R, Rinklebe J, Rocha-Santos T, Sicard P, Sonne C, Teaf C, Tsatsakis A, Vardavas AI, Wang W, Zeng EY, Calabrese EJ. Rethinking Subthreshold Effects in Regulatory Chemical Risk Assessments. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2022; 56:11095-11099. [PMID: 35878124 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.2c02896] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
|
43
|
Stavroulaki A, Tzatzarakis MN, Karzi V, Katsikantami I, Renieri E, Vakonaki E, Avgenaki M, Alegakis A, Stan M, Kavvalakis M, Rizos AK, Tsatsakis A. Antibiotics in Raw Meat Samples: Estimation of Dietary Exposure and Risk Assessment. TOXICS 2022; 10:456. [PMID: 36006135 PMCID: PMC9412356 DOI: 10.3390/toxics10080456] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2022] [Revised: 07/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The extensive use of antibiotics in livestock farming poses increased concerns for human health as residues of these substances are present in edible tissues. The aim of this study was the determination of the levels of four groups of antibiotics (sulfonamides-SAs, tetracyclines-TCs, streptomycines-STr and quinolones-QNLs) in meat samples (muscles, livers and kidneys from beef, chicken and pork) and the estimation of the dietary exposure to antibiotics from meat consumption and the potential hazard for human health. Fifty-four samples of raw meat were randomly collected in 2018 from the Cretan market, Greece and analyzed both with an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS). According to the results derived from the ELISA method, only 2% of the meat samples were free from antibiotics, 2% were detected with 4 antibiotics and the great majority of the samples (87%) were detected with 2 to 3 antibiotics. SAs presented the highest detection frequencies for all samples whereas TCs were not detected in any bovine sample. The highest median concentration was detected for STr in bovine muscles (182.10 μg/kg) followed by QNLs (93.36 μg/kg) in pork kidneys whereas the chicken samples had higher burdens of QNLs compared to the other meat samples. LC-MS analysis showed that oxytetracycline (OTC) was the most common antibiotic in all samples. The highest median concentration of all antibiotics was detected for doxycycline (DOX) (181.73 μg/kg in pork kidney) followed by OTC in bovine liver (74.46 μg/kg). Risk characterization was applied for each of the two methods; The hazard quotients (HQ) did not exceed 0.059 for the ELISA method and 0.113 for the LC-MS method for any group of antibiotics, whereas the total hazard indexes (HI) were 0.078 and 0.021, respectively. The results showed the presence of different groups of antibiotics in meat from the Cretan market and that the health risk to antibiotics is low. A risk assessment analysis conducted for meat consumption and corrected for the aggregated exposure revealed no risk for the consumers.
Collapse
|
44
|
Doukas SG, Vageli DP, Doukas PG, Nikitovic D, Tsatsakis A, Judson BL. The Effect of Tobacco Smoke N-Nitrosamines, NNK and NDEA, and Nicotine, on DNA Mismatch Repair Mechanism and miRNA Markers, in Hypopharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: An In Vivo Model and Clinical Evidence. Curr Oncol 2022; 29:5531-5549. [PMID: 36005175 PMCID: PMC9406897 DOI: 10.3390/curroncol29080437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2022] [Revised: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 07/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Deregulation of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) mechanism has been linked to poor prognosis of upper aerodigestive tract cancers. Our recent in vitro data have provided evidence of crosstalk between deregulated miRNAs and MMR genes, caused by tobacco smoke (TS) N-Nitrosamines, 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK), in hypopharyngeal cells. Here, we explored whether chronic exposure to TS components can affect MMR mechanism and miRNA profiles in hypopharyngeal mucosa. Using a mouse model (C57Bl/6J wild type) of in vivo 14-week exposure to NNK (0.2 mmol/L) and N-Nitrosodiethylamine (NDEA; 0.004 mmol/L), with or without nicotine (0.02 μmol/L), we provide direct evidence that TS components can promote dysplasia, significant downregulation of Msh2 and Mlh1 genes and deregulation of miR-21, miR-155, miR-34a, and miR-451a. By analyzing eight human specimens from tobacco smokers and eight controls, we provide clinical evidence of a significant reduction in hMSH2 and hMLH1 mRNAs in hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HSCC). In summary, deregulation of the MMR mechanism and miRNAs is caused by chronic exposure to TS-related N-Nitrosamines, with or without nicotine, in the early stages of upper aerodigestive tract carcinogenesis, and can also be detected in human HSCC. Thus, we encourage future studies to further elucidate a possible in vivo dose-dependent effect of individual or combined N-Nitrosamines, NNK and/or NDEA, and nicotine, on the MMR mechanism and their clinical testing to elaborate prognosis and risk assessment.
Collapse
|
45
|
Dimitrakis E, Katsarou MS, Lagiou M, Papastefanopoulou V, Spandidos D, Tsatsakis A, Papageorgiou S, Moutsatsou P, Antoniou K, Kroupis C, Drakoulis N. Association of vitamin D receptor gene haplotypes with late‑onset Alzheimer's disease in a Southeastern European Caucasian population. Exp Ther Med 2022; 24:584. [PMID: 35949319 PMCID: PMC9353461 DOI: 10.3892/etm.2022.11521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been investigated over the past years with the aim of identifying any association with the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, information regarding the potential association of VDR SNP haplotypes with AD is limited. The aim of the present study was to provide additional knowledge on the effects of VDR haplotypes on the development of late-onset AD in a cohort of Southeastern European Caucasians (SECs). The study sample included 78 patients with late-onset AD and 103 healthy subjects as the control group. VDR SNPs that were analyzed were TaqI (rs731236), BsmI (rs1544410) and FokI (rs2228570). The CAC (TaqI, BsmI and FokI) haplotype was found to be associated with a 53% lower risk of developing the disease (OR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.23-0.96; P=0.04) and the TAC (TaqI, BsmI and FokI) haplotype was associated with an ~6-fold greater risk of developing AD (OR, 6.19; 95% CI, 1.91-20.13; P=0.0028). Female subjects carrying the TAC haplotype had a ~9-fold greater risk of developing AD in comparison to female control subjects (OR, 9.27; 95% CI, 1.86-46.28; P<0.05). The TaqI and BsmI polymorphisms were in high linkage disequilibrium (D'=0.9717, r=0.8467) and produced a haplotype with a statistically significant different frequency between the control and AD group. The TA (TaqI and BsmI) haplotype was associated with an ~8-fold greater risk of developing AD (OR, 8.27; 95% CI, 2.70-25.28; P<0.05). Female TA carriers had an ~14-fold greater risk of developing the disease in comparison to female control subjects (OR, 13.93; 95% CI, 2.95-65.87; P<0.05). On the whole, the present study demonstrates that in the SEC population, TAC and TA are risk haplotypes for AD, while the CAC haplotype may act protectively. SEC women carrying the TAC or TA haplotype are at a greater risk of developing AD, thus suggesting that women are markedly affected by the poor utilization of vitamin D induced by the VDR haplotype.
Collapse
|
46
|
Vardavas C, Simpson B, Vardavas A, Nikitara K, Lagou I, Tzatzarakis M, Tsatsakis A. Updates in the state of play from the Technical Group on tobacco product flavours. Tob Prev Cessat 2022. [DOI: 10.18332/tpc/151062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
|
47
|
Skalny AV, Serebryansky EP, Korobeinikova TV, Tsatsakis A, Vardavas C, Paoliello MMB, Sotnikova TI, Aschner M, Tinkov AA. Smoking is associated with altered serum and hair essential metal and metalloid levels in women. Food Chem Toxicol 2022; 167:113249. [PMID: 35728725 DOI: 10.1016/j.fct.2022.113249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2022] [Revised: 06/09/2022] [Accepted: 06/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
The objective of the study was to evaluate the association between smoking and essential metal (Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, V, Zn) and metalloid (Se) levels in hair and serum of adult women using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). In this cross-sectional study, a total of 344 women 20-70 years old including 199 smokers and 145 non-smoking women were enrolled. Serum Cu, Fe, and Zn levels in smoking women were found to be 6%, 8%, and 3% lower of levels in non-smokers, respectively. In contrast, circulating Mn, V, and especially Cr concentrations in smoking women exceeded the respective values in non-smoking women by 5%, 14%, and 54%. Hair Fe and Se levels in smoking women were 17% and 23% lower as compared to non-smoking controls, respectively. In multiple regression models, smoking severity was inversely associated with serum and hair Se concentrations, whereas the relationship to serum and hair Cr was positive. In addition, serum Zn and hair Fe levels were found to be inversely associated with the number of cigarettes per day. These findings hypothesize that health hazards of smoking may be at least in part be mediated by alteration in essential metal and metalloid metabolism.
Collapse
|
48
|
Karzi V, Tzatzarakis MN, Alegakis A, Vakonaki E, Fragkiadoulaki I, Kaloudis K, Chalkiadaki C, Apalaki P, Panagiotopoulou M, Kalliantasi A, Kouretas D, Docea AO, Calina D, Tsatsakis A. In Vivo Estimation of the Biological Effects of Endocrine Disruptors in Rabbits after Combined and Long-Term Exposure: Study Protocol. TOXICS 2022; 10:toxics10050246. [PMID: 35622659 PMCID: PMC9148075 DOI: 10.3390/toxics10050246] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2022] [Revised: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2022] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Abstract
Recently, an increasing number of chemical compounds are being characterized as endocrine disruptors since they have been proven to interact with the endocrine system, which plays a crucial role in the maintenance of homeostasis. Glyphosate is the active substance of the herbicide Roundup®, bisphenol A (BPA) and di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) are used as plasticizers, while triclosan (TCS), methyl (MePB), propyl (PrPB), and butyl (BuPB) parabens are used as antimicrobial agents and preservatives mainly in personal care products. Studies indicate that exposure to these substances can affect humans causing developmental problems and problems in the endocrine, reproductive, nervous, immune, and respiratory systems. Although there are copious studies related to these substances, there are few in vivo studies related to combined exposure to these endocrine disruptors. The aim of the present pilot study is the investigation and assessment of the above substances’ toxicity in rabbits after twelve months of exposure to glyphosate (both pure and commercial form) and to a mixture of all the above substances at subtoxic levels. The lack of data from the literature concerning rabbits’ exposure to these substances and the restrictions of the 3Rs Principle will result in a limited number of animals available for use (four animals per group, twenty animals in total).
Collapse
|
49
|
Vageli DP, Doukas PG, Doukas SG, Tsatsakis A, Judson BL. Noxious Combination of Tobacco Smoke Nitrosamines with Bile, Deoxycholic Acid, Promotes Hypopharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma, via NFκB, In Vivo. Cancer Prev Res (Phila) 2022; 15:297-308. [PMID: 35502554 DOI: 10.1158/1940-6207.capr-21-0529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Revised: 12/15/2021] [Accepted: 02/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Tobacco smoking is the most known risk factor for hypopharyngeal cancer. Bile reflux has recently been documented as an independent risk factor for NFκB-mediated hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. However, the carcinogenic effect of tobacco smoke on the hypopharynx and its combination with bile has not yet been proven by direct evidence. We investigated whether in vivo chronic exposure (12-14 weeks) of murine (C57Bl/6J) hypopharyngeal epithelium to tobacco smoke components (TSC) [N-nitrosamines; 4-(N-Methyl-N-Nitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (0.2 mmol/L), N-nitrosodiethylamine (0.004 mmol/L)], as the sole drinking fluid 5 days per week, along with topically applied (two times/day) bile [deoxycholic acid (0.28 mmol/L)], can accelerate a possible TSC-induced neoplastic process, by enhancing NFκB activation and the associated oncogenic profile, using histologic, IHC, and qPCR analyses. We provide direct evidence of TSC-induced premalignant lesions, which can be exacerbated by the presence of bile, causing invasive carcinoma. The combined chronic exposure of the hypopharynx to TSC with bile causes advanced NFκB activation and profound overexpression of Il6, Tnf, Stat3, Egfr, Wnt5a, composing an aggressive phenotype. We document for the first time the noxious combination of bile with a known risk factor, such as tobacco smoke nitrosamines, in the development and progression of hypopharyngeal cancer, via NFκB, in vivo. The data presented here encourage further investigation into the incidence of upper aerodigestive tract cancers in smokers with bile reflux and the early identification of high-risk individuals in clinical practice. This in vivo model is also suitable for large-scale studies to reveal the nature of inflammatory-associated aerodigestive tract carcinogenesis and its targeted therapy. PREVENTION RELEVANCE Early assessment of bile components in refluxate of tobacco users can prevent the chronic silent progression of upper aerodigestive tract carcinogenesis. This in vivo model indicates that bile reflux might have an additive effect on the tobacco-smoke N-nitrosamines effect and could be suitable for large-scale studies of diagnostic and therapeutic interventions.
Collapse
|
50
|
Karaulov AV, Smolyagin AI, Mikhailova IV, Stadnikov AA, Ermolina EV, Filippova YV, Kuzmicheva NA, Vlata Z, Djordjevic AB, Tsitsimpikou C, Hartung T, Hernandez AF, Tsatsakis A. Assessment of the combined effects of chromium and benzene on the rat neuroendocrine and immune systems. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 207:112096. [PMID: 34619121 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2021] [Revised: 09/18/2021] [Accepted: 09/19/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
This study assessed the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis and lymphoid organs (thymus, spleen, and bone marrow) of Wistar rats treated with a mixture of chromium and benzene. Animals were assessed at three time-points (45, 90 and 135 days) following oral mixture exposure. The hypothalamus-pituitary system was examined in light and electron microscopy. Lymphoid organs underwent a morphological assessment and the immunophenotype of splenocytes was characterized immunohistochemically using monoclonal antibodies. Splenocytes cytokine production of was determined by ELISA after Con-A stimulation. Combined exposure to chromium and benzene in average doses of 20 mg Cr (VI)/kg body weight/day and 0.6 ml benzene/kg body weight/day impaired the responsiveness of the central compartment of the HPA axis, as evidenced by functional activation of the secretory activity of the hypothalamus and pituitary gland, which was not followed by a sufficient extrusion of nonapeptides at the neurohypophysis and hypothalamic median eminence. Chromium and benzene exposure reduced the thymus mass, thymocytes count, and caused a number of structural and functional changes indicative of transient thymus involution. In the spleen, exposure to both chemicals resulted in lymphoreticular hyperplasia and plasma cell-macrophage transformation (also observed in lymph nodes). Apoptosis of thymocytes and lymphocytes was also observed in T-zones of the spleen. Notably, the effects were similar to those observed earlier for the single agents, under the same experimental conditions, without evidence of additivity.
Collapse
|