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Chandrasekaran B, Arumugam A, Pesola AJ, Davis F, Rao CR. Association of accelerometer measured sedentary behavior patterns with cognitive functions in sedentary office workers: Insights from SMART-STEP study. Work 2024:WOR240129. [PMID: 38968035 DOI: 10.3233/wor-240129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/07/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND High levels of sedentary behavior in workplaces are currently recognized as an independent risk factor for cognitive dysfunction and poor mental health. However, sedentary patterns vary between workdays and non-workdays, which may influence cognitive functions. OBJECTIVE The present study aimed to quantify and compare work and nonwork device-measured sedentary time (ST) and its association with cognitive function in Indian office workers. METHODS In an ongoing randomized controlled trial (SMART-STEP), the baseline data of 136 full-time office workers, including accelerometer-measured sedentary patterns and cognitive functions, were analyzed. The ST was measured using a hip-worn accelerometer (Actigraph wGT3X-BT) for seven days, and executive functions were measured using computer-based tests. Linear regression models were employed to analyze the relationships between ST and executive function measures. RESULTS The median daily ST of Indian office workers was 11.41 hours. The ST was greater on both workdays (11.43 hrs.) and non-workdays (11.14 hrs.) though different (F = 6.76, p = 0.001, ηp2 = 0.032). Office workers accumulate more prolonged sitting bouts (+21.36 min) during work days than non-workdays. No associations between device-measured ST and executive functions were observed. CONCLUSION Indian office workers exhibited high ST patterns, especially on workdays. Although lower than workdays, Indian office workers exhibited more ST patterns during non-workdays than did their Western counterparts. Culturally adaptable workplace and leisure time physical activity interventions are needed to address the high ST of Indian office workers.
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Avan A, Feigin VL, Bennett DA, Steinmetz JD, Hachinski V, Stranges S, Owolabi MO, Aali A, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abd-Allah F, Abdollahzade S, Abidi H, Abolhassani H, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abu-Zaid A, Ahmad A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed LA, Ajami M, Al Hamad H, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alimohamadi Y, Aljunid SM, Al-Raddadi RM, Amiri S, Arabloo J, Arulappan J, Arumugam A, Asadi-Pooya AA, Athar M, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Azzam AY, Baghcheghi N, Bagherieh S, Baltatu OC, Bazmandegan G, Bhojaraja VS, Bijani A, Bitaraf S, Calina D, Darwish AH, Djalalinia S, Doheim MF, Dorostkar F, Eini E, El Nahas N, El Sayed I, Elhadi M, Elmonem MA, Eskandarieh S, Faghani S, Fallahzadeh A, Farahmand M, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari SH, Gholami A, Ghozy S, Goleij P, Hadei M, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Hamidi S, Hasaballah AI, Hassan A, Hedna K, Hegazy MI, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Hosseini MS, Hoveidamanesh S, Jahrami H, Jamshidi E, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamiab Z, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khatatbeh, Khayat Kashani HR, Khosravi A, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Larijani B, Lasrado S, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Malekpour MR, Malik AA, Mansournia MA, Mardi P, Maroufi SF, Masoudi S, Mayeli M, Mehrabi Nasab E, Menezes RG, Mirmoeeni S, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mobarakabadi M, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohan S, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Montazeri F, Moradi Sarabi M, Moraga P, Morovatdar N, Motaghinejad M, Naghavi M, Natto ZS, Nejadghaderi SA, Noroozi N, Okati-Aliabad H, Pazoki Toroudi H, Perna S, Piradov MA, Pourahmadi M, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rao CR, Rashidi MM, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghian-Jahromi I, Redwan EMM, Rezaee M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rikhtegar R, Saad AMA, Saddik B, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian S, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Sahebkar A, Salahi S, Salahi S, Samy AM, Sanadgol N, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Saylan M, Shahbandi A, Shahrokhi S, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shanawaz M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sheikhi RA, Shetty JK, Shobeiri P, Shorofi SA, Siabani S, Tabatabaei SM, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Temsah MH, Vakilian A, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Vaziri S, Vo B, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yesiltepe M, Zaki N, Zare I, Zare Dehnavi A, Zoladl M. The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Glob Health 2024; 12:e960-e982. [PMID: 38604203 PMCID: PMC11099299 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(24)00093-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2023] [Revised: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East is increasing. We aimed to assess the changes in the burden of neurological conditions in this super-region to aid with future decision making. METHODS In this analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 data, we examined temporal trends of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; deaths and disabilities combined), deaths, incident cases, and prevalent cases of 14 major neurological conditions and eight subtypes in 21 countries in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region. Additionally, we assessed neurological DALYs due to 22 potentially modifiable risk factors, within four levels of classification, during the period 1990-2019. We used a Bayesian modelling estimation approach, and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates on the basis of the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 1000 draws from the posterior distribution. FINDINGS In 2019, there were 441·1 thousand (95% UI 347·2-598·4) deaths and 17·6 million (12·5-24·7) neurological DALYs in north Africa and the Middle East. The leading causes of neurological DALYs were stroke, migraine, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (hereafter dementias). In north Africa and the Middle East in 2019, 85·8% (82·6-89·1) of stroke and 39·9% (26·4-54·7) of dementia age-standardised DALYs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 population due to dementia (387·0 [172·0-848·5]), Parkinson's disease (84·4 [74·7-103·2]), and migraine (601·4 [107·0-1371·8]) among the global super-regions. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a decrease in the age-standardised DALY rates related to meningitis (-75·8% [-81·1 to -69·5]), tetanus (-88·2% [-93·9 to -76·1]), stroke (-32·0% [-39·1 to -23·3]), intracerebral haemorrhage (-51·7% [-58·2 to -43·8]), idiopathic epilepsy (-26·2% [-43·6 to -1·1]), and subarachnoid haemorrhage (-62·8% [-71·6 to -41·0]), but for all other neurological conditions there was no change. During 1990-2019, the number of DALYs due to dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, ischaemic stroke, and headache disorder (ie, migraine and tension-type headache) more than doubled in the super-region, and the burden of years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence, and prevalence of multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, and ischaemic stroke increased both in age-standardised rate and count. During this period, the absolute burden of YLDs due to head and spinal injuries almost doubled. INTERPRETATION The increasing burden of neurological conditions in north Africa and the Middle East accompanies the increasing ageing population. Stroke and dementia are the primary causes of neurological disability and death, primarily attributable to common modifiable risk factors. Synergistic, systematic, lifetime, and multi-sectoral interventions aimed at preventing or mitigating the burden are needed. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS For the Persian, Arabic and Turkish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Vollset SE, Ababneh HS, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbastabar H, Abd Al Magied AHA, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelkader A, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdi P, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Absalan A, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abukhadijah HJJ, Addolorato G, Adekanmbi V, Adetunji CO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adha R, Adhikary RK, Adnani QES, Adzigbli LA, Afrashteh F, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agbozo F, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahlstrom AJ, Ahmad A, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed S, Ahmed SA, Akinosoglou K, Akkaif MA, Akrami AE, Akter E, Al Awaidy S, Al Hasan SM, Al Mosa AS, Al Ta'ani O, Al Zaabi OAM, Alahdab F, Alajlani MM, Al-Ajlouni Y, Alalalmeh SO, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alam Z, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Albakri A, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alemohammad SY, Alemu YM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali I, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Ali VE, Ali W, Al-Ibraheem A, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alqutaibi AY, Alrawashdeh A, Alrousan SM, Al-Sabah SK, Alsabri MA, Altaany Z, Al-Tammemi AB, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Al-Wardat MS, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Alyahya MS, Alzoubi KH, Al-Zyoud W, Amani R, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Andrews EA, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anuoluwa BS, Anvari S, Anyasodor AE, Appiah F, Aquilano M, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafa EA, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Ardekani A, Areda D, Aregawi BB, Aremu A, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armani K, Artamonov AA, Arumugam A, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashbaugh C, Astell-Burt T, Athari SS, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Awad H, Awotidebe AW, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Azadnajafabad S, Azeez FK, Azevedo RMS, Badar M, Baghdadi S, Bagheri M, Bagheri N, Bai R, Baker JL, Bako AT, Balakrishnan S, Balcha WF, Baltatu OC, Barchitta M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barqawi HJ, Barteit S, Basiru A, Basso JD, Bastan MM, Basu S, Bauckneht M, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Behnoush AH, Behzadi P, Beiranvand M, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bemanalizadeh M, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Bernstein RS, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Beyene MG, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bharadwaj R, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhuiyan MA, Bisignano C, Biswas B, Bjørge T, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Bosoka SA, Botero Carvajal A, Bouaoud S, Boufous S, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Brazo-Sayavera J, Brenner H, Brown CS, Browne AJ, Brugha T, Bryazka D, Bulamu NB, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Çakmak Barsbay M, Calina D, Campos LA, Cao S, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carugno A, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castelpietra G, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenko E, Cerin E, Chadban SJ, Chadwick J, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty S, Chalek J, Chan JSK, Chandika RM, Chandy S, Charan J, Chaudhary AA, Chaurasia A, Chen AT, Chen H, Chen MX, Chen S, Cherbuin N, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho DY, Cho WCS, Choi DW, Chong B, Chong CL, Chopra H, Chu DT, Chung E, Chutiyami M, Clayton JT, Cogen RM, Cohen AJ, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Connolly JT, Cooper EEK, Cortese S, Cruz-Martins N, da Silva AG, Dadras O, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalton BE, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Das JK, Das S, Das S, Dash NR, Davletov K, De la Hoz FP, De Leo D, Debopadhaya S, Delgado-Enciso I, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Desai HD, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhama K, Dhane AS, Dhingra S, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz LA, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Doegah PT, Dohare S, Dong W, D'Oria M, Doshi R, Dowou RK, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Dube J, Dumith SC, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dushpanova A, Dutta S, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Ebrahimi Kalan M, Edinur HA, Efendi F, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekundayo TC, El Arab RA, El Sayed I, Elamin O, Elemam NM, ElGohary GMT, Elhadi M, Elmeligy OAA, Elmoselhi AB, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Eltahir ME, Emeto TI, Eshrati B, Eslami M, Esmaeili Z, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe AF, Fagbule OF, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faro A, Fasihi K, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Fazylov T, Feigin VL, Fekadu G, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Ferrara P, Ferreira N, Firew BS, Fischer F, Fitriana I, Flavel J, Flor LS, Folayan MO, Foley KM, Fonzo M, Force LM, Foschi M, Freitas A, Fridayani NKY, Fukutaki KG, Furtado JM, Fux B, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gallus S, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Gautam RK, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Getacher L, Getahun GKA, Gething PW, Ghadimi DJ, Ghadirian F, Ghafarian S, Ghailan KY, Ghasemi M, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghazy RM, Ghoba S, Gholami E, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh N, Ghorbani M, Ghorbani Vajargah P, Ghotbi E, Gil AU, Gill TK, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Glushkova EV, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Goldust M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Gouravani M, Goyal A, Grivna M, Grosso G, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Guicciardi S, Guimarães RA, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane DA, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VK, Haakenstad A, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hafiz A, Haghmorad D, Haile D, Hajj Ali A, Hajj Ali A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Hamdy NM, Hamoudi R, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Haq ZA, Haque MR, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan SMM, Hasanian M, Hasnain MS, Hassan A, Haubold J, Hay SI, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari M, Hemmati M, Henson CA, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Heydari M, Hezam K, Hidayana I, Hiraike Y, Hoan NQ, Holla R, Hoogar P, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hu C, Huang J, Hultström M, Hundie TG, Hunt AJ, Hushmandi K, Hussain J, Hussain MA, Hussein NR, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Iftikhar PM, Ikiroma AI, Ikwegbue PC, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Isa MA, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iyamu IO, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jafarinia M, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jakhmola Mani DR, Jamil S, Jamora RDG, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayaram S, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jiang H, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jürisson M, K V, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kalankesh LR, Kalra S, Kamath A, Kamath R, Kamireddy A, Kanaan M, Kanchan T, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kansal SK, Karim A, Karkhah S, Kashoo FZ, Kasraei H, Kassel MB, Katikireddi SV, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kebede F, Kendal ES, Kesse-Guyot E, Khademvatan S, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid A, Khalid N, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan F, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Kheirallah KA, Khokhar M, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Khosla AA, Khosravi M, Khosrowjerdi M, Khubchandani J, Kifle ZD, Kim G, Kim JS, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Kochhar S, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Koren G, Korzh O, Krishan K, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kujan O, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar GA, Kumar H, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kumar V, Kundu A, Kusuma D, Kyei-Arthur F, Kytö V, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lai DTC, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lan Q, Lan T, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lawlor HR, Le HH, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TTT, Le TDT, Leasher JL, Lee DW, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee YH, Leigh J, Leong E, Li MC, Libra M, Ligade VS, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenh LW, Lindholm D, Lindstedt PA, Listl S, Liu G, Liu S, Liu S, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, López-Bueno R, López-Gil JF, Loreche AM, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Luo L, Lusk JB, Lv L, M Amin HI, Ma ZF, Maass KL, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Maghazachi AA, Mahadeshwara Prasad D, Mahalleh M, Mahasha PW, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudvand G, Makama M, Malakan Rad E, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malta DC, Manla Y, Mansour A, Mansouri MH, Mansouri P, Mansouri V, Mansourian M, Mansournia MA, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Mardi P, Marjani A, Markazi Moghadam H, Marrugo Arnedo CA, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Marzo RR, Masoudi S, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathioudakis AG, Mathur M, Mathur N, Mathur N, Matozinhos FP, Mattumpuram J, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, Mayeli M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McPhail MA, McPhail SM, Mehmood A, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehravar S, Mekene Meto T, Melese EB, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Mensah LG, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Miller TR, Minh LHN, Mirahmadi A, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei R, Mitchell PB, Mittal C, Moberg ME, Moghadam Fard A, Mohajelin S, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed AI, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad AM, Mohammadi S, Mohammed H, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Momani SM, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Montazeri F, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mousavi P, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Musallam KM, Musina AM, Mustafa G, Myung W, Nafei A, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Nainu F, Najdaghi S, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Nargus S, Narimani Davani D, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Naser AY, Nashwan AJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Navaratna SNK, Naveed M, Nawsherwan, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nematollahi S, Netsere HB, Ng M, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen N, Nguyen NNY, Nguyen PT, Nguyen QP, Nguyen VT, Nguyen Tran Minh D, Niazi RK, Nigatu YT, Niknam M, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor AR, Nikravangolsefid N, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noor STA, Noroozi N, Nouri M, Nozari M, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Nunemo MH, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Oduro MS, Ogundijo OA, Ogunfowokan AA, Ogunkoya A, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Ojo-Akosile TR, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omer GL, Ong S, Onie S, Onwujekwe 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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2204-2256. [PMID: 38762325 PMCID: PMC11121021 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2024] [Revised: 03/29/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. METHODS Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FINDINGS In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]). INTERPRETATION Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2100-2132. [PMID: 38582094 PMCID: PMC11126520 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2057-2099. [PMID: 38521087 PMCID: PMC11122687 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00550-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2023] [Revised: 12/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2024] [Indexed: 03/25/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. METHODS To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FINDINGS During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. INTERPRETATION Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Yehualashet SS, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yigzaw ZA, Yismaw Y, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yu Y, Yusuf H, Zahid MH, Zakham F, Zaki L, Zaki N, Zaman BA, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandieh GGZ, Zar HJ, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang H, Zhang N, Zhang Y, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zhong P, Zhou J, Zhu Z, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zimsen SRM, Zoladl M, Zumla A, Zyoud SH, Vos T, Murray CJL. Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2133-2161. [PMID: 38642570 PMCID: PMC11122111 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00757-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Revised: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. INTERPRETATION Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2162-2203. [PMID: 38762324 PMCID: PMC11120204 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2024] [Revised: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 05/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. METHODS The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. FINDINGS Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). INTERPRETATION Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Shariff M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shaw DH, Shayan AM, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shenoy MM, Shetty BSK, Shetty RS, Shey RA, Shiani A, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shool S, Shrestha S, Shuja KH, Shuval K, Si Y, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simões JP, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh B, Singh M, Singh M, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Slepak ELN, Sohrabi H, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Solmi M, Solomon Y, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Starnes JR, Starodubov VI, Starodubova AV, Stefan SC, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sunkersing D, Susanty S, Swain CK, Sykes BL, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabb KM, Tabish M, Taborda-Barata LM, Tabuchi T, Tadesse BT, Taheri A, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Tajbakhsh A, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tang HK, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tebeje TM, Tefera YM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye SH, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapa R, Thapar R, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tiruye TY, Tohidast SA, Tonelli M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tram KH, Tran NM, Trico D, Trihandini I, Tromans SJ, Truong VT, Truyen TTTT, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Ubah CS, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ulhaq I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Umesh A, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Vacante M, Vahdani AM, Vaithinathan AG, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varavikova E, Varga O, Varma SA, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Veerman LJ, Venketasubramanian N, Venugopal D, Verghese NA, Verma M, Verma P, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Vieira RJ, Villafañe JH, Villani L, Villanueva GI, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Visontay R, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Volovici V, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wado YD, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang D, Wang F, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Watson S, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weiss DJ, Weldemariam AH, Wells KM, Wen YF, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Wool EE, Woolf AD, Wu D, Wulandari RD, Xiao H, Xu B, Xu X, Yadav L, Yaghoubi S, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Ye P, Yesera GE, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zahedi M, Zahid MN, Zahir M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zakzuk J, Zamagni G, Zaman BA, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandi M, Zandieh GGZ, Zanghì A, Zare I, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zeng Y, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhang Z, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu Z, Ziaeefar P, Zielińska M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:1989-2056. [PMID: 38484753 PMCID: PMC11126395 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Matpady P, Maiya AG, Saraswat PP, Rao CR, Pai MS, Anupama SD, Shetty JK, Umakanth S. Barriers and Enablers for Physical Activity Engagement Among Individuals From India With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Mixed-Method Study. J Phys Act Health 2024; 21:519-527. [PMID: 38402875 DOI: 10.1123/jpah.2023-0574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2023] [Revised: 01/07/2024] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 02/27/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a complex, chronic condition that can cause multiple complications due to poor glycemic control. Self-management plays a crucial role in the management of T2DM. Lifestyle modifications, including physical activity (PA), are fundamental for self-management. This study explored the knowledge, perception, practice, enablers, and barriers of PA among individuals with T2DM. METHODS A mixed-method study was conducted among individuals with T2DM in Udupi taluk, India. A cross-sectional survey (n = 467) followed by an in-depth interview (n = 35) was performed. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis, respectively. RESULTS About half (48.8%) of the participants engaged in PA of which 28.3% had an adequate score in the practice of PA. Walking was the most preferred mode. Self-realization, Comprehension, perception, and source of information, PA training, Current PA practices, enablers and barriers for PA were 6 themes derived under knowledge, perception, and practice of PA. CONCLUSION Despite knowing the importance of PA, compliance with PA was poor. The personal/internal, societal, and external factors constituted the trinity of barriers and enablers in compliance with PA. Behavioral changes, societal changes, policy initiatives, and PA training in health care settings may enhance PA practice among individuals with T2DM.
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Raj AK, Pedersen SJ, Mainsbridge C, Rao CR, Roy S, Chandrasekaran B. Influence of short bouts of stair climbing on young adults during prolonged sitting on posture, discomfort, and musculoskeletal performance outcomes: a counterbalanced pilot randomised crossover trial. ERGONOMICS 2024:1-12. [PMID: 38571330 DOI: 10.1080/00140139.2024.2335551] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 03/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/05/2024]
Abstract
Prolonged sitting is postulated to influence musculoskeletal performance (cervical flexor endurance, balance, and agility), discomfort and alter cervical spine angles during work-based computer use. Stair climbing breaks may be a great addition at typical and home offices however remain unexplored for its impact on musculoskeletal performance. In our counterbalanced pilot crossover trial, 24 adults were randomised to three interventions: (1) prolonged sitting, (2) interrupted by 2 min of self-paced, and (3) externally paced stair climbing for 2 h. Cervical spine angles were measured every 30 min while balance, agility, endurance, and discomfort were assessed before and after 120 min. Stair climbing interruptions have favourable effects on agility (F = 8.12, p = 0.009, ηp2 = 0.26) and musculoskeletal discomfort, but failed to improve other musculoskeletal outcomes associated with prolonged sitting. Brief stair climbing interruptions are effective in improving discomfort and agility while pragmatic trials are warranted for translated effects.
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Bhandary RP, John S, Nagaraj AKM, Praharaj SK, Rao CR, Kulkarni MM, Agarwal SK. A close critical look of India's National Mental Health Survey 2016. Indian J Psychiatry 2023; 65:1313-1316. [PMID: 38298879 PMCID: PMC10826867 DOI: 10.4103/indianjpsychiatry.indianjpsychiatry_837_23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2023] [Revised: 10/31/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/02/2024] Open
Abstract
The National Mental Health Survey 2016 (NMHS 2016) was a large epidemiological study, one of its kind, conducted by the National Institute of Mental Health and Neuro Sciences (NIMHANS), Bengaluru to overcome the shortcomings of the previous surveys. The detailed report of the study is available in two parts- 'mental health systems' and 'prevalence, pattern and outcomes'. Though done comprehensively, there are some inevitable limitations. The private sector, a substantial health care provider in the country was not a participant in the survey. Though MINI version 6.0 is a standard and structured instrument, it does not cover many commonly encountered mental illnesses like somatoform disorders. Further, the methodology of the survey makes it difficult for an accurate calculation of the prevalence of individual major psychiatric disorders. The survey has been appraised using a standard checklist for prevalence studies. The detailed qualitative data has not been shared in the report. The contribution of the traditional indigenous systems of healthcare and accessibility of services in rural areas have not been elaborated. Thus, the need for a comprehensive and culturally sensitive assessment tool, involvement of the private sector, and enhancing funding provision to improve the infrastructure are emphasized as future directions for the subsequent phases of the survey.
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Cunha ARD, Compton K, Xu R, Mishra R, Drangsholt MT, Antunes JLF, Kerr AR, Acheson AR, Lu D, Wallace LE, Kocarnik JM, Fu W, Dean FE, Pennini A, Henrikson HJ, Alam T, Ababneh E, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdoun M, Abidi H, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Adane TD, Addo IY, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ahmed Rashid T, Akonde M, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Al-Maweri SA, Alsharif U, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anwar SL, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Aruleba RT, Asaad M, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Attia S, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Badar M, Baghcheghi N, Banach M, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Bashir NZ, Bashiri A, Benzian H, Bernabe E, Bhagat DS, Bhojaraja VS, Bjørge T, Bouaoud S, Braithwaite D, Briko NI, Calina D, Carreras G, Chakraborty PA, Chattu VK, Chaurasia A, Chen MX, Cho WCS, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Darwesh AM, Debela SA, Derbew Molla M, Dessalegn FN, Dianati-Nasab M, Digesa LE, Dixit SG, Dixit A, Djalalinia S, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Enyew DB, Erku DA, Ezzeddini R, Fagbamigbe AF, Falzone L, Fetensa G, Fukumoto T, Gaewkhiew P, Gallus S, Gebrehiwot M, Ghashghaee A, Gill PS, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomez RS, Gorini G, Guimaraes ALS, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Halwani R, Hanif A, Hariyani N, Harorani M, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassanipour S, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Herrera-Serna BY, Holla R, Horita N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hussain S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Isola G, Jaiswal A, Jani CT, Javaheri T, Jayarajah U, Jayaram S, Joseph N, Kadashetti V, Kandaswamy E, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khanali J, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Khazeei Tabari MA, Kim MS, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Kumar GA, Kurmi OP, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Ledda C, Lee YH, Libra M, Lim SS, Listl S, Lopukhov PD, Mafi AR, Mahumud RA, Malik AA, Mathur MR, Maulud SQ, Meena JK, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mestrovic T, Mirfakhraie R, Misganaw A, Misra S, Mithra P, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi M, Mohammadi E, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Moraga P, Morrison SD, Mozaffari HR, Mubarik S, Murray CJL, Nair TS, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Negru SM, Nggada HA, Nouraei H, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Olagunju AT, Omar Bali A, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pandey A, Pardhan S, Patel J, Pezzani R, Piracha ZZ, Rabiee N, Radhakrishnan V, Radhakrishnan RA, Rahmani AM, Rahmanian V, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rath GK, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Riad A, Roberts TJ, Romero-Rodríguez E, Roshandel G, S M, S N C, Saddik B, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safaei M, Sahebazzamani M, Sahebkar A, Salek Farrokhi A, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Šekerija M, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shafaat O, Shahsavari HR, Shamsoddin E, Sharew MM, Sharifi-Rad J, Shetty JK, Shivakumar KM, Shobeiri P, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Singh P, Singh JA, Singh G, Sinha DN, Solomon Y, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Taheri Abkenar Y, Talaat IM, Tan KK, Tbakhi A, Thiyagarajan A, Tiyuri A, Tovani-Palone MR, Unnikrishnan B, Vo B, Volovat SR, Wang C, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Xiao H, Yu C, Yuce D, Yunusa I, Zadnik V, Zare I, Zhang ZJ, Zoladl M, Force LM, Hugo FN. The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. JAMA Oncol 2023; 9:1401-1416. [PMID: 37676656 PMCID: PMC10485745 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2023.2960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/08/2023]
Abstract
Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning. Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019. Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia. Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.
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Ong KL, Stafford LK, McLaughlin SA, Boyko EJ, Vollset SE, Smith AE, Dalton BE, Duprey J, Cruz JA, Hagins H, Lindstedt PA, Aali A, Abate YH, Abate MD, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abd-Rabu R, Abdulah DM, Abdullah AYM, Abedi V, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Zaid A, Adane TD, Adane DE, Addo IY, Adegboye OA, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju AV, Adnani QES, Afolabi RF, Agarwal G, Aghdam ZB, Agudelo-Botero M, Aguilera Arriagada CE, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad D, Ahmad R, Ahmad S, Ahmad A, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi K, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed LA, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Akinyemi RO, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, AlBataineh MT, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alemi S, Ali H, Alinia T, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare F, Ameyaw EK, Amiri S, Amusa GA, Andrei CL, Anjana RM, Ansar A, Ansari G, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Arifin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Ärnlöv J, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Aryan Z, Asemu MT, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Askari E, Asmelash D, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Avila-Burgos L, Awaisu A, Azadnajafabad S, B DB, Babamohamadi H, Badar M, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadory S, Bai R, Baig AA, Baltatu OC, Baradaran HR, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barengo NC, Bärnighausen TW, Barone MTU, Barone-Adesi F, Barrow A, Bashiri H, Basiru A, Basu S, Basu S, Batiha AMM, Batra K, Bayih MT, Bayileyegn NS, Behnoush AH, Bekele AB, Belete MA, Belgaumi UI, Belo L, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berhie AY, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhatti JS, Bikbov B, Bilal F, Bintoro BS, Bitaraf S, Bitra VR, Bjegovic-Mikanovic V, Bodolica V, Boloor A, Brauer M, Brazo-Sayavera J, Brenner H, Butt ZA, Calina D, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao Y, Cao C, Car J, Carvalho M, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chadwick J, Chandrasekar EK, Chanie GS, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chauhan K, Cheema HA, Chekol Abebe E, Chen S, Cherbuin N, Chichagi F, Chidambaram SB, Cho WCS, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Chowdhury EK, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung SC, Coberly K, Columbus A, Contreras D, Cousin E, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Cuschieri S, Dabo B, Dadras O, Dai X, Damasceno AAM, Dandona R, Dandona L, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, De la Cruz-Góngora V, Debele GR, Delpasand K, Demisse FW, Demissie GD, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deo SV, Dervišević E, Desai HD, Desale AT, Dessie AM, Desta F, Dewan SMR, Dey S, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Diao N, Diaz D, Dinu M, Diress M, Djalalinia S, Doan LP, Dongarwar D, dos Santos Figueiredo FW, Duncan BB, Dutta S, Dziedzic AM, Edinur HA, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Endeshaw D, Esayas HL, Eshetu HB, Etaee F, Fadhil I, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Falahi S, Faris MEM, Farrokhpour H, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fazli G, Feng X, Ferede TY, Fischer F, Flood D, Forouhari A, Foroumadi R, Foroutan Koudehi M, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Gaipov A, Galali Y, Ganesan B, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gautam RK, Gebrehiwot M, Gebrekidan KG, Gebremeskel TG, Getacher L, Ghadirian F, Ghamari SH, Ghasemi Nour M, Ghassemi F, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gopalani SV, Guadie HA, Guan SY, Gudayu TW, Guimarães RA, Guled RA, Gupta R, Gupta K, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gyawali B, Haddadi R, Hadi NR, Haile TG, Hajibeygi R, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halwani R, Hamidi S, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Haque S, Harandi H, Harlianto NI, Hasan SMM, Hasan SS, Hasani H, Hassanipour S, Hassen MB, Haubold J, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Hessami K, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Hossain S, Hossain MS, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh M, Hosseinzadeh H, Huang J, Huda MN, Hussain S, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ikeda N, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Iqbal A, Islam SMS, Islam RM, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyamu IO, Iyasu AN, Jacob L, Jafarzadeh A, Jahrami H, Jain R, Jaja C, Jamalpoor Z, Jamshidi E, Janakiraman B, Jayanna K, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jeong W, Jin Y, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Joseph A, Joshua CE, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabthymer RH, Kadashetti V, Kahe F, Kalhor R, Kandel H, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karkhah S, Katoto PDMC, Kaur N, Kazemian S, Kebede SA, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khan MAB, Khan M, Khan A, Khanal S, Khatatbeh MM, Khater AM, Khateri S, khorashadizadeh F, Khubchandani J, Kibret BG, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Kolahi AA, Komaki S, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Korzh O, Kostev K, Kothari N, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy Y, Kuate Defo B, Kuddus M, Kuddus MA, Kumar R, Kumar H, Kundu S, Kurniasari MD, Kuttikkattu A, La Vecchia C, Lallukka T, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Latief K, Lawal BK, Le TTT, Le TTB, Lee SWH, Lee M, Lee WC, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Legesse SM, Lenzi J, Li Y, Li MC, Lim SS, Lim LL, Liu X, Liu C, Lo CH, Lopes G, Lorkowski S, Lozano R, Lucchetti G, Maghazachi AA, Mahasha PW, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi R, Mahmoudimanesh M, Mai AT, Majeed A, Majma Sanaye P, Makris KC, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Mallhi TH, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri B, Marateb HR, Mardi P, Martini S, Martorell M, Marzo RR, Masoudi R, Masoudi S, Mathews E, Maugeri A, Mazzaglia G, Mekonnen T, Meshkat M, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Miranda JJ, Mirfakhraie R, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Misganaw A, Misgina KH, Mishra M, Moazen B, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadshahi M, Mohseni A, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moniruzzaman M, Mons U, Montazeri F, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi Y, Moradi M, Moradi Sarabi M, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mossialos E, Mostafavi E, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Mulita A, Murillo-Zamora E, Musa KI, Mwita JC, Nagaraju SP, Naghavi M, Nainu F, Nair TS, Najmuldeen HHR, Nangia V, Nargus S, Naser AY, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Nayak BP, Ndejjo R, Negash H, Negoi RI, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Nguyen HQ, Niazi RK, Nigatu YT, Ningrum DNA, Nizam MA, Nnyanzi LA, Noreen M, Noubiap JJ, Nzoputam OJ, Nzoputam CI, Oancea B, Odogwu NM, Odukoya OO, Ojha VA, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olufadewa II, Onwujekwe OE, Ordak M, Ortiz A, Osuagwu UL, Oulhaj A, Owolabi MO, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pantea Stoian AM, Pardhan S, Parekh T, Parekh U, Pasovic M, Patel J, Patel JR, Paudel U, Pepito VCF, Pereira M, Perico N, Perna S, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Podder V, Postma MJ, Pourali G, Pourtaheri N, Prates EJS, Qadir MMF, Qattea I, Raee P, Rafique I, Rahimi M, Rahimifard M, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MO, Rahman MA, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MM, Rahmani M, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rahmawaty S, Rahnavard N, Rajbhandari B, Ram P, Ramazanu S, Rana J, Rancic N, Ranjha MMAN, Rao CR, Rapaka D, Rasali DP, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rashidi MM, Ratan ZA, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Redwan EMM, Remuzzi G, Rengasamy KRR, Renzaho AMN, Reyes LF, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rezazadeh H, Riahi SM, Rias YA, Riaz M, Ribeiro D, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohloff P, Roshandel G, Roustazadeh A, Rwegerera GM, Saad AMA, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sabzmakan L, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeed U, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safi S, Safi SZ, Saghazadeh A, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahoo H, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Sajid MR, Salahi S, Salahi S, Saleh MA, Salehi MA, Salomon JA, Sanabria J, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Sargazi S, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sawhney M, Schlaich MP, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Seidu AA, Senthil Kumar N, Sepanlou SG, Sethi Y, Seylani A, Shabany M, Shafaghat T, Shafeghat M, Shafie M, Shah NS, Shahid S, Shaikh MA, Shanawaz M, Shannawaz M, Sharfaei S, Shashamo BB, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shivakumar KM, Shivalli S, Shobeiri P, Shokri F, Shuval K, Sibhat MM, Silva LMLR, Simpson CR, Singh JA, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Skryabina AA, Sohag AAM, Soleimani H, Solikhah S, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Somayaji R, Sorensen RJD, Starodubova AV, Sujata S, Suleman M, Sun J, Sundström J, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabish M, Taheri M, Taheri E, Taki E, Tamuzi JJLL, Tan KK, Tat NY, Taye BT, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Tesler R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapa R, Tharwat S, Thomas N, Ticoalu JHV, Tiyuri A, Tonelli M, Tovani-Palone MR, Trico D, Trihandini I, Tripathy JP, Tromans SJ, Tsegay GM, Tualeka AR, Tufa DG, Tyrovolas S, Ullah S, Upadhyay E, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Valizadeh R, van Daalen KR, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vaziri S, Verma MV, Verras GI, Vo DC, Wagaye B, Waheed Y, Wang Z, Wang Y, Wang C, Wang F, Wassie GT, Wei MYW, Weldemariam AH, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wu Y, Wulandari RDWI, Xia J, Xiao H, Xu S, Xu X, Yada DY, Yang L, Yatsuya H, Yesiltepe M, Yi S, Yohannis HK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zare I, Zarea K, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zeru NG, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zielińska M, Zikarg YT, Zodpey S, Zoladl M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zuniga YMH, Magliano DJ, Murray CJL, Hay SI, Vos T. Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2023; 402:203-234. [PMID: 37356446 PMCID: PMC10364581 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 437] [Impact Index Per Article: 437.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. FINDINGS In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. INTERPRETATION Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Chandran O, Shruthi P, Sukumar S, Kadavigere R, Chakravarthy K, Rao CR, Chandrasekaran B. Effects of physical activity breaks during prolonged sitting on vascular and executive function—A randomised cross-over trial. J Taibah Univ Med Sci 2023; 18:1065-1075. [PMID: 36994221 PMCID: PMC10040888 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtumed.2023.03.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Revised: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives High sedentary behaviour is associated with adverse effects on central vascular function and cognitive function. Although interventions to mitigate the adverse effects of workplace sitting are intriguing, evidence of the efficacy of such interventions remains lacking. This randomised cross-over trial was aimed at exploring the effectiveness of prolonged sitting, with or without physical activity breaks, on central, peripheral vascular and cognitive function in adults. Methods Twenty one healthy adults completed 4 h of simulated work conditions in three experimental visits: (1) uninterrupted sitting (SIT); (2) sitting interrupted by 3 min of walking every hour (LIT); and (3) sitting interrupted by 3 min of stair climbing every hour (MIT). Carotid (CA) and superficial femoral artery (SFA) diameter, velocity, shear rate and blood flow were measured with Duplex ultrasound at 50 MHz at three time points (hours 0, 2 and 4), and executive function was assessed with the computer based Eriksen Flanker task every hour. Results The decreases in reaction time (-30.59%) and accuracy (-10.56%) during SIT conditions were statistically significant, and less of a decrease was observed under LIT and MIT conditions. No significant differences in CA and SFA function were observed with LIT and MIT interventions. Conclusion Physical activity breaks of varying intensity during prolonged sitting improve reaction time. However, the vascular benefits of physical activity breaks should be confirmed in the future through long term studies in natural environment.
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Sahabudhee A, Rao CR, Chandrasekaran B, Pedersen SJ. Dose-response effects of periodic physical activity breaks on the chronic inflammatory risk associated with sedentary behavior in high- and upper-middle income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Diabetes Metab Syndr 2023; 17:102730. [PMID: 36863092 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsx.2023.102730] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Revised: 02/16/2023] [Accepted: 02/19/2023] [Indexed: 02/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Though moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is speculated to mitigate the inflammatory risk associated with sedentary behavior, only a fraction of the global population meets the recommended weekly dose of MVPA. More individuals indulge in bouted and sporadic light-intensity physical activity (LIPA) that occurs throughout the typical day. However, the anti-inflammatory effects of LIPA or MVPA breaks during prolonged sitting remains unclear. METHODS A systematic search was done on six peer-reviewed databases through January 27th, 2023. Two authors independently screened the citations for eligibility, and risk of bias and performed a meta-analysis. RESULTS The included studies originated from high and upper - middle income countries. Observational studies of SB interruptions with LIPA showed favourable effects on inflammatory mediators such as higher levels of adiponectin (odds ratio, OR = +0.14; p = 0.02). However, these findings are not supported by the experimental studies. Experimental studies reported non-significant increase in cytokines including IL-1β (standardised mean difference, SMD = 0.11 pg/ml; p = 0.29) and IL-6 (SMD = 0.19 pg/ml; p = 0.46) after interrupting sitting with LIPA breaks. But these LIPA breaks were found to reduce C-reactive protein (SMD = - 0.50 mg/dl; p = 0.85) and IL-8 levels (SMD = -0.08 pg/ml; p = 0.34) but did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION Interrupting prolonged sitting time with LIPA breaks shows promise for preventing the inflammatory effects associated with prolonged bouts of daily sitting, though the evidence remains in infancy and limited to high- and upper-middle income countries.
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Singh S, Awasthi S, Kumar D, Sarraf SR, Pandey AK, Agarwal GG, Awasthi A, T. S. A, Mathew JL, Kar S, Nair S, Rao CR, Pande H, Mahanta BN, Bharti B, Singh CM, Singh K, Bhat MA, A. R. S, Awasthi R, Mahdi AA. Micronutrients and cognitive functions among urban school-going children and adolescents: A cross-sectional multicentric study from India. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0281247. [PMID: 36730336 PMCID: PMC9894395 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281247] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 01/18/2023] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Micronutrient deficiency (MD) is associated with deficits in cognitive functioning of children. However, no comprehensive multicentric study has been conducted in India to explore the role of multiple MD in cognition of children and adolescents. The present study aimed to explore association of MD with level of general intelligence and specific cognitive functions, in urban school-going children and adolescents across ten cities of India. METHOD Cross-sectional multicentric study, enrolled participants aged 6-16 years. Blood samples were collected for biochemical analysis of calcium, iron, zinc, selenium, folate, vitamin A, D and B12. Colored Progressive Matrices / Standard Progressive Matrices (CPM/SPM), Coding, Digit Span and Arithmetic tests were used for the assessment of cognitive functions of participants. Height and weight measures were collected along with socio-economic status. RESULTS From April-2019 to February-2020, 2428 participants were recruited from 60 schools. No MD was found in 7.0% (134/1918), any one MD in 23.8% (457/1918) and ≥ 2 MD in 69.2% (1327/1918) participants. In presence of ≥ 2 MD, adjusted odds ratio (OR) for borderline or dull normal in CPM/SPM was 1.63, (95% CI: 1.05-2.52), coding was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.02-2.71), digit span was 1.55 (95% CI: 1.06-2.25) and arithmetic was 1.72 (95% CI: 1.17-2.53), controlling for gender, socioeconomic status and anthropometric indicators. CONCLUSION Since ≥ 2 MD were found in more than 2/3rd of participants and was associated with impairment in cognitive function, attempts must be made to ameliorate them on priority in school going children in India. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER CTRI/2019/02/017783.
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Haakenstad A, Yearwood JA, Fullman N, Bintz C, Bienhoff K, Weaver MR, Nandakumar V, LeGrand KE, Knight M, Abbafati C, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdoli A, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Adedeji IA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed A, Ahmed Rashid T, Aji B, Akande-Sholabi W, Alam K, Al Hamad H, Alhassan RK, Ali L, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Andrade PP, Anjum A, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Ariffin H, Arulappan J, Aryan Z, Ashraf T, Atnafu DD, Atreya A, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Bairwa M, Bakkannavar SM, Baliga S, Banik PC, Bärnighausen TW, Barra F, Barrow A, Basu S, Bayati M, Belete R, Bell AW, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj N, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bhurtyal A, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Bolarinwa OA, Bonny A, Brenner H, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Busse R, Butt ZA, Butt NS, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carneiro VLA, Catalá-López F, Chandan JS, Charan J, Chavan PP, Chen S, Chen S, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury EK, Chowdhury MAK, Cirillo M, Corso B, Dadras O, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dangel WJ, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davletov K, Deuba K, Dhimal M, Dhimal ML, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doshmangir L, Duncan BB, Effiong A, Ehsani-Chimeh E, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Erku DA, Eskandarieh S, Fares J, Farzadfar F, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gaal PA, Gaihre S, Gardner WM, Garg T, Getachew Obsa A, Ghafourifard M, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gilani SA, Gill PS, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Guadamuz JS, Guo Y, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta VK, Gupta VB, Hamiduzzaman M, Hanif A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasan MT, Hashi A, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari M, Heidari G, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Holla R, Hossain S, Hossain SJ, Hossain MBH, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Hoveidamanesh S, Hsieh VCR, Hu G, Huang J, Huda MM, Ifeagwu SC, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Jahani MA, Jahanmehr N, Jain R, Jakovljevic M, Janodia MD, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamath AM, Kamenov K, Kandel H, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karanikolos M, Katikireddi SV, Kavetskyy T, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khammarnia M, Khan MN, Khan MAB, Khan M, Khezeli M, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kisa S, Kisa A, Klymchuk V, Koly KN, Korzh O, Kosen S, Koul PA, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kusuma D, Kyu HH, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lee WC, Lee YH, Lee CB, Li S, Lucchetti G, Mahajan PB, Majeed A, Makki A, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Malta DC, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Martinez-Valle A, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Mathur MR, Maude RJ, Maulik PK, McKee M, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Michalek IM, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Misra S, Moazen B, Mohammadi M, Mohammed S, Moitra M, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moradi G, Moreira RS, Mosser JF, Mostafavi E, Mouodi S, Nagarajan AJ, Nagata C, Naghavi M, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nascimento BR, Nassereldine H, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Negoi I, Nepal S, Neupane Kandel S, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen CT, Ningrum DNA, Noubiap JJ, Oancea B, Oghenetega OB, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Omar Bali A, Omer E, Onwujekwe OE, Otoiu A, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pardhan S, Pasupula DK, Pathak PK, Patton GC, Pawar S, Pereira J, Pilania M, Piroozi B, Podder V, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Prada SI, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee N, Radhakrishnan RA, Rahman MM, Rahman M, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ranabhat CL, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rawal L, Renzaho AM, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Ripon RK, Sacco S, Sadeghi M, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Sahiledengle B, Sahoo H, Sahu M, Salama JS, Salamati P, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Schmidt MI, Seidu AA, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Sheikh A, Shetty A, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shivakumar KM, Shokri A, Singh JA, Sinha DN, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sofi-Mahmudi A, Sousa RARC, Stephens JH, Sun J, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadbiri H, Tamiru AT, Thankappan KR, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran MTN, Tran BX, Tripathi N, Tripathy JP, Troeger CE, Uezono DR, Ullah S, Ullah A, Unnikrishnan B, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Vasic M, Veroux M, Vervoort D, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang YP, Wang Y, Ward P, Wiangkham T, Yadav L, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yi S, Yiğit V, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zaman SB, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zuniga YMH, Lim SS, Murray CJL, Lozano R. Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Glob Health 2022; 10:e1715-e1743. [PMID: 36209761 PMCID: PMC9666426 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00429-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2021] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. METHODS We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. INTERPRETATION Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Rao CR, Chandrasekaran B, Ravishankar N, Rutebemberwa E, Okello D. Physical activity interventions for glycaemic control in African adults - A systematic review and meta-analysis. Diabetes Metab Syndr 2022; 16:102663. [PMID: 36459907 DOI: 10.1016/j.dsx.2022.102663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2022] [Revised: 11/03/2022] [Accepted: 11/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Growing evidence indicates that increasing physical activity may aid in regulating altered glycaemic control, thereby mitigating the risk of diabetes. However, the evidence summarising the efficacy of physical activity on glycaemic control among African adults remains unconsolidated. Our objective was to provide an amalgamated summary of the empirical evidence that explored the effectiveness of physical activity interventions on glycaemic control among African adults. METHODS A systematic search of six journal databases for the studies exploring the efficacy of physical activity on glycaemic control among African adults until March 21, 2022, was administered. Two independent reviewers screened the citations based on a priori set eligibility criteria. Data were analysed using inverse variance method and a summary of findings was synthesised using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations approach. RESULTS Of the 14,624 citations retrieved, 26 articles with 1474 participants were included for final analysis. Most of the included trials had a high risk of bias (N = 20; 76.92%). Our review found a significant reduction in fasting blood glucose (FBG, -2.18 [ 95% CI -3.18, -1.18] mmol/L), insulin (-0.99 [-2.71, 0.74] μU/L), Glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1C) (-0.53% [-0.88, -0.19]), Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) (-0.74% [-1.10, -0.38]) and insulin sensitivity (-0.90 μU/l/min [-1.75, -0.06]) following physical activity interventions. The review reports low certainty of evidence across all outcome measures. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION Physical activity interventions were found to improve glycaemic control among African adults. However, the optimal physical activity dose for demonstrating meaningful benefits on glucose tolerance still remains unclear due to the limited number of primary studies available.
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Rajeshwari R, Rao CR, D'Silva RM, Chandrasekaran B. Do energy expenditure differences across work postures influence cognitive processing speed? A counter-balanced randomised cross-over trial. Work 2022; 74:549-563. [PMID: 36278368 DOI: 10.3233/wor-205315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Anecdotal evidence links occupational sedentary behaviour, low energy expenditure (EE) and cognitive dysfunction. Nevertheless, EE across different work postures including active workstations remains unclear and its influence on cognitive processing speed is yet to be established. OBJECTIVE We aimed to investigate differences in EE across various work postures and its influence on cognitive processing speed. METHODS Sixteen desk-based employees performed simulated work tasks (typing, reading and cognitive tasks) in three different work positions (sitting, standing, and walking) in three different days. EE was measured for three days consecutively for 30-minutes in three simulated working postures using indirect calorimetry. Cognitive processing speed was assessed through computer-based choice reaction times during each work posture. The outcome variables of interest (EE, reaction times and accuracy) were compared between three work postures using repeated measures ANOVA and Pearson correlation. RESULTS EE in walking posture was higher (5.57±0.45 Kcal) than sitting (1.07±0.12 Kcal) and standing (1.88±0.42 Kcal). Total EE was significantly higher in walking than standing (35.17±6.86 Kcal) and sitting postures (41.37±8.46 Kcal). We did not find any significant differences in cognitive processing speed between different work postures except within standing work condition (60.22±13.97 ms). Accuracy was found to be reduced in walking compared to sitting (0.76±0.83%) and standing (0.43±0.09%) but not reached significance. CONCLUSION Although significant differences in EE were observed between work postures, walking or standing at work did not affect the cognitive processing speed.
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Tran KB, Lang JJ, Compton K, Xu R, Acheson AR, Henrikson HJ, Kocarnik JM, Penberthy L, Aali A, Abbas Q, Abbasi B, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abbastabar H, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab AA, Abdoli G, Abdulkadir HA, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Absalan A, Abtew YD, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Achappa B, Acuna JM, Addison D, Addo IY, Adegboye OA, Adesina MA, Adnan M, Adnani QES, Advani SM, Afrin S, Afzal MS, Aggarwal M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad AR, Ahmad R, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Aiman W, Ajami M, Akalu GT, Akbarzadeh-Khiavi M, Aklilu A, Akonde M, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alessy SA, Algammal AM, Al-Hanawi MK, Alhassan RK, Ali BA, Ali L, Ali SS, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alkhayyat M, Al-Maweri SAA, Almustanyir S, Alonso N, Alqalyoobi S, Al-Raddadi RM, Al-Rifai RHH, Al-Sabah SK, Al-Tammemi AB, Altawalah H, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare F, Ameyaw EK, Aminian Dehkordi JJ, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderson JA, Animut YA, Anoushiravani A, Anoushirvani AA, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Ansha MG, Antony B, Antwi MH, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aremu O, Argaw AM, Ariffin H, Aripov T, Arshad M, Artaman A, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Aryannejad A, Asaad M, Asemahagn MA, Asemi Z, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf T, Assadi R, Athar M, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Attia S, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awedew AF, Awoke MA, Awoke T, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayana TM, Ayen SS, Azadi D, Azadnajafabad S, Azami-Aghdash S, Azanaw MM, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Azizi H, Azzam AYY, Babajani A, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bahadory S, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bakhtiari A, Bakshi RK, Banach M, Banerjee I, Bardhan M, Barone-Adesi F, Barra F, Barrow A, Bashir NZ, Bashiri A, Basu S, Batiha AMM, Begum A, Bekele AB, Belay AS, Belete MA, Belgaumi UI, Bell AW, Belo L, Benzian H, Berhie AY, Bermudez ANC, Bernabe E, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhandari BB, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bhuyan SS, Bibi S, Bilchut AH, Bintoro BS, Biondi A, Birega MGB, Birhan HE, Bjørge T, Blyuss O, Bodicha BBA, Bolla SR, Boloor A, Bosetti C, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Brenner H, Briko AN, Briko NI, Buchanan CM, Bulamu NB, Bustamante-Teixeira MT, Butt MH, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cámera LA, Cao C, Cao Y, Carreras G, Carvalho M, Cembranel F, Cerin E, Chakraborty PA, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chimed-Ochir O, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Cho DY, Cho WCS, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Cohen AJ, Conde J, Cortés S, Costa VM, Cruz-Martins N, Culbreth GT, Dadras O, Dagnaw FT, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Danielewicz A, Dao ATM, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Darwesh AM, Das S, Davitoiu DV, Davtalab Esmaeili E, De la Hoz FP, Debela SA, Dehghan A, Demisse B, Demisse FW, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Derakhshani A, Derbew Molla M, Dereje D, Deribe KS, Desai R, Desalegn MD, Dessalegn FN, Dessalegni SAA, Dessie G, Desta AA, Dewan SMR, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dianatinasab M, Diao N, Diaz D, Digesa LE, Dixit SG, Doaei S, Doan LP, Doku PN, Dongarwar D, dos Santos WM, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Durojaiye OC, Edalati S, Eghbalian F, Ehsani-Chimeh E, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Ekwueme DU, El Tantawi M, Elbahnasawy MA, Elbarazi I, Elghazaly H, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Emamian MH, Engelbert Bain L, Enyew DB, Erkhembayar R, Eshetu T, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Etaee F, Etemadimanesh A, Eyayu T, Ezeonwumelu IJ, Ezzikouri S, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahimi S, Fakhradiyev IR, Faraon EJA, Fares J, Farmany A, Farooque U, Farrokhpour H, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Fatima W, Fattahi H, Fekadu G, Feleke BE, Ferrari AA, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroumadi R, Foroutan M, Fukumoto T, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Gadanya MA, Gaipov A, Galehdar N, Gallus S, Garg T, Gaspar Fonseca M, Gebremariam YH, Gebremeskel TG, Gebremichael MA, Geda YF, Gela YY, Gemeda BNB, Getachew M, Getachew ME, Ghaffari K, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari SH, Ghasemi Nour M, Ghassemi F, Ghimire A, Ghith N, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholizadeh Navashenaq J, Ghozy S, Gilani SA, Gill PS, Ginindza TG, Gizaw ATT, Glasbey JC, Godos J, Goel A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Golitaleb M, Gorini G, Goulart BNG, Grosso G, Guadie HA, Gubari MIM, Gudayu TW, Guerra MR, Gunawardane DA, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gurara MK, Guta A, Habibzadeh P, Haddadi Avval A, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hajj Ali A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Halimi A, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Hariri S, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hartono RK, Hasaballah AI, Hasan SMM, Hasani H, Hashemi SM, Hassan AM, Hassanipour S, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidarymeybodi Z, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hlongwa MM, Holla R, Holm M, Horita N, Hoseini M, Hossain MM, Hossain MBH, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh A, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Huang J, Hugo FN, Humayun A, Hussain S, Hussein NR, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Iftikhar PM, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Innos K, Iranpour P, Irham LM, Islam MS, Islam RM, Islami F, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, J LM, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jalili M, Jalilian S, Jamshidi E, Jang SI, Jani CT, Javaheri T, Jayarajah UU, Jayaram S, Jazayeri SB, Jebai R, Jemal B, Jeong W, Jha RP, Jindal HA, John-Akinola YO, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kacimi SEO, Kadashetti V, Kahe F, Kakodkar PV, Kalankesh LR, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamal VK, Kamangar F, Kamath A, Kanchan T, Kandaswamy E, Kandel H, Kang H, Kanno GG, Kapoor N, Kar SS, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karimi A, Kassa BG, Katoto PDMC, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Kebede AG, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Kejela GG, Kemp Bohan PM, Keramati M, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khan A, Khan AAK, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan MN, Khan MAB, Khanali J, Khatab K, Khatatbeh MM, Khatib MN, Khayamzadeh M, Khayat Kashani HR, Khazeei Tabari MA, Khezeli M, Khodadost M, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Klugar M, Klugarová J, Kolahi AA, Kolkhir P, Kompani F, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy Y, Kucuk Bicer B, Kugbey N, Kulimbet M, Kumar A, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kuttikkattu A, La Vecchia C, Lahiri A, Lal DK, Lám J, Lan Q, Landires I, Larijani B, Lasrado S, Lau J, Lauriola P, Ledda C, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee WC, Lee YY, Lee YH, Legesse SM, Leigh J, Leong E, Li MC, Lim SS, Liu G, Liu J, Lo CH, Lohiya A, Lopukhov PD, Lorenzovici L, Lotfi M, Loureiro JA, Lunevicius R, Madadizadeh F, Mafi AR, Magdeldin S, Mahjoub S, Mahmoodpoor A, Mahmoudi M, Mahmoudimanesh M, Mahumud RA, Majeed A, Majidpoor J, Makki A, Makris KC, Malakan Rad E, Malekpour MR, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Mallhi TH, Mallya SD, Mamun MA, Manda AL, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Martini S, Martorell M, Masoudi S, Masoumi SZ, Matei CN, Mathews E, Mathur MR, Mathur V, McKee M, Meena JK, Mehmood K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mehrotra R, Melese A, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha SID, Mensah LG, Mentis AFA, Mera-Mamián AYM, Meretoja TJ, Merid MW, Mersha AG, Meselu BT, Meshkat M, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Mijena GFW, Miller TR, Mir SA, Mirinezhad SK, Mirmoeeni S, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei HR, Misganaw AS, Misra S, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed A, Mohammed S, Mohan S, Mohseni M, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Molassiotis A, Molokhia M, Momenzadeh K, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mons U, Montasir AA, Montazeri F, Montero A, Moosavi MA, Moradi A, Moradi Y, Moradi Sarabi M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosapour A, Mostafavi E, Mousavi SM, Mousavi Isfahani H, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mubarik S, Mulita F, Munblit D, Munro SB, Murillo-Zamora E, Musa J, Nabhan AF, Nagarajan AJ, Nagaraju SP, Nagel G, Naghipour M, Naimzada MD, Nair TS, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash WW, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejati K, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen HVN, Niazi RK, Noor NM, Noori M, Noroozi N, Nouraei H, Nowroozi A, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Oghenetega OB, Ogunsakin RE, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okekunle AP, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olakunde BO, Olufadewa II, Omer E, Omonisi AEE, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Orru H, Otstavnov SS, Oulhaj A, Oumer B, Owopetu OF, Oyinloye BE, P A M, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pakbin B, Pakshir K, Pakzad R, Palicz T, Pana A, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pant S, Pardhan S, Park EC, Park EK, Park S, Patel J, Pati S, Paudel R, Paudel U, Paun M, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peng M, Pereira J, Pereira RB, Perna S, Perumalsamy N, Pestell RG, Pezzani R, Piccinelli C, Pillay JD, Piracha ZZ, Pischon T, Postma MJ, Pourabhari Langroudi A, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prashant A, Qadir MMF, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi M, Rafiee A, Rafiei A, Raheem N, Rahim F, Rahman MO, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rajai N, Rajesh A, Ram P, Ramezanzadeh K, Rana J, Ranabhat K, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rashedi S, Rashidi A, Rashidi M, Rashidi MM, Ratan ZA, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghinia MS, Rehman AU, Rehman IU, Reitsma MB, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaei S, Rezaeian M, Rezapour A, Riad A, Rikhtegar R, Rios-Blancas M, Roberts TJ, Rohloff P, Romero-Rodríguez E, Roshandel G, Rwegerera GM, S M, Saber-Ayad MM, Saberzadeh-Ardestani B, Sabour S, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safaei M, Safary A, Sahebazzamani M, Sahebkar A, Sahoo H, Sajid MR, Salari H, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salimzadeh H, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sankararaman S, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saqib MAN, Sarveazad A, Sarvi F, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sayegh N, Schneider IJC, Schwarzinger M, Šekerija M, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Seyoum K, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shah PA, Shahabi S, Shahid I, Shahrbaf MA, Shahsavari HR, Shaikh MA, Shaka MF, Shaker E, Shannawaz M, Sharew MMS, Sharifi A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma P, Shashamo BB, Sheikh A, Sheikh M, Sheikhbahaei S, Sheikhi RA, Sheikhy A, Shepherd PR, Shetty A, Shetty JK, Shetty RS, Shibuya K, Shirkoohi R, Shirzad-Aski H, Shivakumar KM, Shivalli S, Shivarov V, Shobeiri P, Shokri Varniab Z, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Sibhat MM, Siddappa Malleshappa SK, Sidemo NB, Silva DAS, Silva LMLR, Silva Julian G, Silvestris N, Simegn W, Singh AD, Singh A, Singh G, Singh H, Singh JA, Singh JK, Singh P, Singh S, Sinha DN, Sinke AH, Siraj MS, Sitas F, Siwal SS, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Socea B, Soeberg MJ, Sofi-Mahmudi A, Solomon Y, Soltani-Zangbar MS, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soshnikov S, Sotoudeh H, Sowe A, Sufiyan MB, Suk R, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana S, Sur D, Szócska M, Tabaeian SP, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabuchi T, Tadbiri H, Taheri E, Taheri M, Taheri Soodejani M, Takahashi K, Talaat IM, Tampa M, Tan KK, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli A, Tavakoli A, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalegn Y, Tesfay FH, Thapar R, Thavamani A, Thoguluva Chandrasekar V, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Ticoalu JHV, Tiyuri A, Tollosa DN, Topor-Madry R, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran MTN, Tripathy JP, Ukke GG, Ullah I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Unnikrishnan B, Vacante M, Vaezi M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Vardavas C, Varthya SB, Vaziri S, Velazquez DZ, Veroux M, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vu LG, Wadood AW, Waheed Y, Walde MT, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang F, Wang N, Wang Y, Ward P, Waris A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Woldemariam M, Woldu B, Xiao H, Xu S, Xu X, Yadav L, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yang L, Yazdanpanah F, Yeshaw Y, Yismaw Y, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yousefian F, Yu C, Yu Y, Yunusa I, Zahir M, Zaki N, Zaman BA, Zangiabadian M, Zare F, Zare I, Zareshahrabadi Z, Zarrintan A, Zastrozhin MS, Zeineddine MA, Zhang D, Zhang J, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhou L, Zodpey S, Zoladl M, Vos T, Hay SI, Force LM, Murray CJL. The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2022; 400:563-591. [PMID: 35988567 PMCID: PMC9395583 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01438-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 189] [Impact Index Per Article: 94.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2022] [Revised: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/28/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]). INTERPRETATION The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Bryazka D, Reitsma MB, Griswold MG, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abdullah AYM, Abhilash ES, Abu-Gharbieh E, Acuna JM, Addolorato G, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adhikari K, Adhikari S, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Agegnehu WY, Aggarwal M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad AR, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed Rashid T, Akunna CJ, Al Hamad H, Alam MZ, Alem DT, Alene KA, Alimohamadi Y, Alizadeh A, Allel K, Alonso J, Alvand S, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare F, Ameyaw EK, Amiri S, Ancuceanu R, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Arabloo J, Arshad M, Artamonov AA, Aryan Z, Asaad M, Asemahagn MA, Astell-Burt T, Athari SS, Atnafu DD, Atorkey P, Atreya A, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Ayano G, Ayanore MAA, Ayinde OO, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Azadnajafabad S, Azanaw MM, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Azzam AY, Badiye AD, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bairwa M, Bakkannavar SM, Bakshi RK, Balchut/Bilchut AH, Bärnighausen TW, Barra F, Barrow A, Baskaran P, Belo L, Bennett DA, Benseñor IM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bintoro BS, Blokhina EAE, Bodicha BBA, Boloor A, Bosetti C, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Briko NI, Brunoni AR, Butt ZA, Cao C, Cao Y, Cárdenas R, Carvalho AF, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castelpietra G, Castro-de-Araujo LFS, Cattaruzza MS, Chakraborty PA, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chaurasia A, Cherbuin N, Chu DT, Chudal N, Chung SC, Churko C, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Claro RM, Costanzo S, Cowden RG, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Culbreth GT, Dachew BA, Dadras O, Dai X, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daniel BD, Danielewicz A, Darega Gela J, Davletov K, de Araujo JAP, de Sá-Junior AR, Debela SA, Dehghan A, Demetriades AK, Derbew Molla M, Desai R, Desta AA, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Digesa LE, Diress M, Dodangeh M, Dongarwar D, Dorostkar F, Dsouza HL, Duko B, Duncan BB, Edvardsson K, Ekholuenetale M, Elgar FJ, Elhadi M, Elmonem MA, Endries AY, Eskandarieh S, Etemadimanesh A, Fagbamigbe AF, Fakhradiyev IR, Farahmand F, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Feigin VL, Feldman R, Feng X, Fentaw Z, Ferrero S, Ferro Desideri L, Filip I, Fischer F, Francis JM, Franklin RC, Gaal PA, Gad MM, Gallus S, Galvano F, Ganesan B, Garg T, Gebrehiwot MGD, Gebremeskel TG, Gebremichael MA, Gemechu TR, Getacher L, Getachew ME, Getachew Obsa A, Getie A, Ghaderi A, Ghafourifard M, Ghajar A, Ghamari SH, Ghandour LA, Ghasemi Nour M, Ghashghaee A, Ghozy S, Glozah FN, Glushkova EV, Godos J, Goel A, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golitaleb M, Greaves F, Grivna M, Grosso G, Gudayu TW, Gupta B, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Halwani R, Handiso TB, Hankey GJ, Hariri S, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Herteliu C, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Hlongwa MM, Holla R, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hosseini SK, hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hu G, Huang J, Hussain S, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Irham LM, Islam MM, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Iso H, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Jabbarinejad R, Jacob L, Jakovljevic M, Jamalpoor Z, Jamshidi E, Jayapal SK, Jayarajah UU, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jeddi SA, Jema AT, Jha RP, Jindal HA, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabthymer RH, Kamble BD, Kandel H, Kanno GG, Kapoor N, Karaye IM, Karimi SE, Kassa BG, Kaur RJ, Kayode GA, Keykhaei M, Khajuria H, Khalilov R, Khan IA, Khan MAB, Kim H, Kim J, Kim MS, Kimokoti RW, Kivimäki M, Klymchuk V, Knudsen AKS, Kolahi AA, Korshunov VA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy Y, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kumar N, Lacey B, Lallukka T, Lasrado S, Lau J, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lopukhov PD, Lorkowski S, Lozano R, Lucchetti G, Madadizadeh F, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Mahjoub S, Mahmoodpoor A, Mahumud RA, Makki A, Malekpour MR, Manjunatha N, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martinez-Raga J, Martinez-Villa FA, Matzopoulos R, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, McGrath JJ, Meena JK, Mehrabi Nasab E, Menezes RG, Mensink GBM, Mentis AFA, Meretoja A, Merga BT, Mestrovic T, Miao Jonasson J, Miazgowski B, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirijello A, Mirmoeeni S, Mirrakhimov EM, Misra S, Moazen B, Mobarakabadi M, Moccia M, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi E, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed TA, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Moradi Y, Mostafavi E, Mubarik S, Mullany EC, Mulugeta BT, Murillo-Zamora E, Murray CJL, Mwita JC, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Nayak BP, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nepal S, Neupane SPP, Neupane Kandel S, Nigatu YT, Nowroozi A, Nuruzzaman KM, Nzoputam CI, Obamiro KO, Ogbo FA, Oguntade AS, Okati-Aliabad H, Olakunde BO, Oliveira GMM, Omar Bali A, Omer E, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Otoiu A, Otstavnov SS, Oumer B, P A M, Padron-Monedero A, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pardhan S, Parekh T, Park EK, Parry CDH, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patel J, Pati S, Patton GC, Paudel U, Pawar S, Peden AE, Petcu IR, Phillips MR, Pinheiro M, Plotnikov E, Pradhan PMS, Prashant A, Quan J, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Raghav PR, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman A, Rahman MM, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Ranabhat CL, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rasali DP, Rashidi MM, Ratan ZA, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezaei S, Rezaeian M, Riahi SM, Romero-Rodríguez E, Roth GA, Rwegerera GM, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian R, Saeed U, Saeedi F, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahoo H, Sahraian MA, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Salahi S, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarikhani Y, Sathian B, Saya GK, Sayyah M, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Seidu AA, Senthil Kumar N, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seylani A, Sha F, Shahin S, Shahraki-Sanavi F, Shahrokhi S, Shaikh MA, Shaker E, Shakhmardanov MZ, Shams-Beyranvand M, Sheikhbahaei S, Sheikhi RA, Shetty A, Shetty JK, Shiferaw DS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shobeiri P, Shrestha R, Sidemo NB, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva NTD, Singh JA, Singh S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Solmi M, SOLOMON YONATAN, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soshnikov S, Soyiri IN, Stein DJ, Subba SH, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Taheri M, Tan KK, Tareke M, Tarkang EE, Temesgen G, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thomas NK, Tiruneh C, Todorovic J, Torrado M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran MTN, Trias-Llimós S, Tripathy JP, Vakilian A, Valizadeh R, Varmaghani M, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vos T, Wagaye B, Waheed Y, Walde MT, Wang C, Wang Y, Wang YP, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wubetu AD, Xu S, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yesera GEE, Yigit A, Yiğit V, Yimaw AEAE, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zadey S, Zahir M, Zare I, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zmaili M, Zuniga YMH, Gakidou E. Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020. Lancet 2022; 400:185-235. [PMID: 35843246 PMCID: PMC9289789 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)00847-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 150] [Impact Index Per Article: 75.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2021] [Revised: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 04/26/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. METHODS For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. FINDINGS The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male. INTERPRETATION There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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R. N. HK, Rao CR, Kumarchandra R, Maradi R, S. V. CS. Glycemic status among newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients and their treatment outcomes- A prospective cohort study. Biomedicine (Taipei) 2022. [DOI: 10.51248/.v42i3.1693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction and Aim: Tuberculosis is a serious systemic infection, which is a serious threat for developing countries including India. To address the disease burden, India has rolled out National Tuberculosis Elimination Program (NTEP) incorporating daily drug regimen with appropriate weight bands for treatment. Monitoring treatment outcomes for daily drug regimen with one-year post-treatment follow-up was the objective of the study.
Materials and Methods: A prospective community-based cohort study was conducted between January 2020 and September 2021, in Udupi district. Patients were recruited from 62 different Primary health centres. Their baseline data was collected, glycaemic status was assessed using glycated hemoglobin. The patients were followed up till their treatment completion and one-year post-treatment follow-up was also done.
Results: One hundred and two patients were diagnosed with tuberculosis during the 1st quarter of 2020 (Jan-Mar 2020) and started on daily drug regimen treatment. Favourable outcomes were noted among 107(95.1%), while unfavourable outcomes were noted among 5(4.9%). Females in younger age group and free from comorbidities had favourable outcomes. Older age groups, prediabetics, patients with lower BMI, and pulmonary tuberculosis had unfavourable outcomes.
Conclusion: The daily drug regimen for tuberculosis was found to be effective in terms of reducing the treatment failure rates. Evaluation of glycaemic status using Glycosylated hemoglobin at the time of diagnosis of tuberculosis is desirable. So that, life style modification could be suggested to avoid progression of prediabetes to diabetes. Screening for diabetes using Glycosylated hemoglobin at treatment initiation is advocated to avoid unfavourable outcomes during TB treatment.
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Rajesh C, Ashok L, Rao CR, Kamath VG, Kamath A, Sekaran VC, Devaramane V, Swamy VT. Psychological well-being and coping strategies among secondary school teachers: A cross-sectional study. JOURNAL OF EDUCATION AND HEALTH PROMOTION 2022; 11:152. [PMID: 35847148 PMCID: PMC9277760 DOI: 10.4103/jehp.jehp_1248_21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2021] [Accepted: 10/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Educators, academicians, and teachers are responsible for the development of the nation's human capital. Teacher coping methods are becoming more widely recognized as a key factor in determining teacher effectiveness. The aim of this study was to identify the various coping strategies adopted by high school teachers in Southern India. MATERIALS AND METHODS A cross-sectional study was conducted in government, aided, and unaided schools of Udupi, a coastal district in Southern India. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data from 460 high school teachers chosen based on convenience sampling. The coping strategies were identified using a modified version of Brief COPE(Coping Orientation to Problems Experienced) Inventory (Carver, 1997). Data were entered using SPSS version 15 and descriptive statistics was performed. RESULTS The study found that teachers had moderate level of coping skills in all domains. The most popular coping techniques used by secondary school teachers were positive reframing, active coping, and planning; nevertheless, substance use was recognized as the least popular coping strategy. CONCLUSION Positive reframing, active coping, and preparation were the most commonly used coping strategies by the teachers in the survey. Teachers are a vital resource who have received less attention than they deserve for their psychological well-being. A customized intervention program based on their perceived needs could be a good place to start.
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Sheena BS, Hiebert L, Han H, Ippolito H, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abbastabar H, Abdoli A, Abubaker Ali H, Adane MM, Adegboye OA, Adnani QES, Advani SM, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Aghaie Meybodi M, Ahadinezhad B, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi S, Ahmed H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed Rashid T, Akalu GT, Aklilu A, Akram T, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alem AZ, Alem DT, Alhalaiqa FAN, Alhassan RK, Ali L, Ali MA, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Alkhayyat M, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Altawalah H, Amini S, Amu H, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anoushiravani A, Ansar A, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Argaw AM, Argaw ZG, Arshad M, Artamonov AA, Ashraf T, Atlaw D, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azari Jafari A, Azarian G, Bagheri S, Bahadory S, Baig AA, Banach M, Barati N, Barrow A, Batiha AMM, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Belgaumi UI, Berhie AY, Bhagat DS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhojaraja VS, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bodicha BBA, Bojia HA, Boloor A, Bosetti C, Braithwaite D, Briko NI, Butt ZA, Cámera LA, Chakinala RC, Chakraborty PA, Charan J, Chen S, Choi JYJ, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury FR, Chu DT, Chung SC, Cortesi PA, Cowie BC, Culbreth GT, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, De la Hoz FP, Debela SA, Dedefo MG, Demeke FM, Demie TGG, Demissie GD, Derbew Molla M, Desta AA, Dhamnetiya D, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Didehdar M, Doan LP, Dorostkar F, Drake TM, Eghbalian F, Ekholuenetale M, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, Elhadi M, Elmonem MA, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Enyew DB, Erkhembayar R, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Ezzikouri S, Farrokhpour H, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gaidhane S, Galles NC, Gallus S, Gebremeskel TG, Gebreyohannes EAA, Ghadiri K, Ghaffari K, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari SH, Ghashghaee A, Gholami A, Gholizadeh A, Gilani A, Goel A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gorini G, Goshu YA, Griswold MG, Gubari MIM, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Halwani R, Hamid SS, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Haque S, Harapan H, Hargono A, Hariri S, Hasaballah AI, Hasan SMM, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Herteliu C, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Holla R, Hosseini MS, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Househ M, Huang J, Hussein NR, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irham LM, Islam JY, Ismail NE, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Javadi Mamaghani A, Jayaram S, Jayawardena R, Jebai R, Jha RP, Joseph N, Joukar F, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalhor R, Kandel H, Kanko TKT, Kantar RS, Karaye IM, Kassa BG, Kemp Bohan PM, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khan G, Khan IA, Khan J, Khan MAB, Khanali J, Khater AM, Khatib MN, Khodadost M, Khoja AT, Khosravizadeh O, Khubchandani J, Kim GR, Kim H, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kocarnik JM, Kolahi AA, Koteeswaran R, Kumar GA, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lazarus JV, Ledda C, Lee DW, Lee SW, Lee YY, Levi M, Li J, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lopukhov PD, Loureiro JA, MacLachlan JH, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majeed A, Makki A, Malekpour MR, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Matthews PC, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AG, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Minh LHN, Mirica A, Mirmoeeni S, Mirrakhimov EM, Misra S, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohamadkhani A, Mohammadi M, Mohammed S, Moka N, Mokdad AH, Moludi J, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradzadeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mostafavi E, Mubarik S, Muniyandi M, Murray CJL, Naghavi M, Naimzada MD, Narasimha Swamy S, Natto ZS, Nayak BP, Nazari J, Negoi I, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen HLT, Ngwa CH, Niazi RK, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nowroozi A, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Ochir C, Odukoya OO, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olakunde BO, Omar Bali A, Omer E, Otstavnov SS, Oumer B, Padubidri JR, Pana A, Pandey A, Park EC, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patel UK, Paudel U, Petcu IR, Piracha ZZ, Pollok RCG, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Rafiei A, Rafiei S, Raghuram PM, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rahmawaty S, Rajesh A, Ranasinghe P, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rashidi M, Rashidi MM, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Rezazadeh-Khadem S, Rodriguez JAB, Rwegerera GM, Sabour S, Saddik B, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Saif-Ur-Rahman KM, Salahi S, Salimzadeh H, Sampath C, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Seidu AA, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Shahabi S, Shaikh MA, Shaker E, Shakhmardanov MZ, Shannawaz M, Shenoy SM, Shetty JK, Shetty PH, Shibuya K, Shin JI, Shobeiri P, Sibhat MM, Singh AD, Singh JA, Singh S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sohrabpour AA, Song S, Tabaeian SP, Tadesse EG, Taheri M, Tampa M, Tan KK, Tavakoli A, Tbakhi A, Tefera BN, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tesfaw HM, Thapar R, Thavamani A, Tohidast SA, Tollosa DN, Tosti ME, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran MTN, Trihandini I, Tusa BS, Ullah I, Vacante M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Varthya SB, Vo B, Waheed Y, Weldesenbet AB, Woldemariam M, Xu S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yaseri M, Yeshaw Y, Yiğit V, Yirdaw BW, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Yunusa I, Zahir M, Zaki L, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Vos T, Ward JW, Dirac MA. Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol 2022; 7:796-829. [PMID: 35738290 PMCID: PMC9349325 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-1253(22)00124-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 201] [Impact Index Per Article: 100.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 04/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Background Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Haagsma JA, Charalampous P, Ariani F, Gallay A, Moesgaard Iburg K, Nena E, Ngwa CH, Rommel A, Zelviene A, Abegaz KH, Al Hamad H, Albano L, Liliana Andrei C, Andrei T, Antonazzo IC, Aremu O, Arumugam A, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Engelbert Bain L, Banach M, Winfried Bärnighausen T, Barone-Adesi F, Beghi M, Bennett DA, Bhagavathula AS, Carvalho F, Castelpietra G, Caterina L, Chandan JS, Couto RAS, Cruz-Martins N, Damiani G, Dastiridou A, Demetriades AK, Dias-da-Silva D, Francis Fagbamigbe A, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Fischer F, Fra.Paleo U, Ghirini S, Glasbey JC, Glavan IR, Gomes NGM, Grivna M, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hasan MT, Hostiuc S, Iavicoli I, Ilic MD, Ilic IM, Jakovljevic M, Jonas JB, Jerzy Jozwiak J, Jürisson M, Kauppila JH, Kayode GA, Khan MAB, Kisa A, Kisa S, Koyanagi A, Kumar M, Kurmi OP, La-Vecchia C, Lamnisos D, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Linn S, Loureiro JA, Lunevicius R, Madureira-Carvalho A, Mechili EA, Majeed A, Menezes RG, Mentis AFA, Meretoja A, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski T, Miazgowski B, Mirica A, Molokhia M, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Mulita F, David Naimzada M, Negoi I, Neupane S, Oancea B, Orru H, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Padron-Monedero A, Panda-Jonas S, Pardhan S, Patel J, Pedersini P, Pinheiro M, Rakovac I, Rao CR, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rodrigues V, Ronfani L, Sagoe D, Sanmarchi F, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Sheikh A, Shiri R, Shivalli S, Dora Sigfusdottir I, Sigurvinsdottir R, Yurievich Skryabin V, Aleksandrovna Skryabina A, Smarandache CG, Socea B, Sousa RARC, Steiropoulos P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Roberto Tovani-Palone M, Tozija F, Van de Velde S, Juhani Vasankari T, Veroux M, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Wang Y, Yadollahpour A, Yaya S, Sergeevich Zastrozhin M, Zastrozhina A, Polinder S, Majdan M. The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. Arch Public Health 2022; 80:142. [PMID: 35590340 PMCID: PMC9121595 DOI: 10.1186/s13690-022-00891-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2022] [Accepted: 05/02/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries. METHODS We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year. RESULTS In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019. CONCLUSIONS Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.
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