Prevalent Metformin Use in Adults With Diabetes and the Incidence of Long COVID: An EHR-Based Cohort Study From the RECOVER Program

OBJECTIVE

Studies show metformin use before and during SARS-CoV-2 infection reduces severe COVID-19 and postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC) in adults. Our objective was to describe the incidence of PASC and possible associations with prevalent metformin use in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort analysis using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) and Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network (PCORnet) electronic health record (EHR) databases with an active comparator design that examined metformin-exposed individuals versus nonmetformin-exposed individuals who were taking other diabetes medications. T2DM was defined by HbA1c ≥6.5 or T2DM EHR diagnosis code. The outcome was death or PASC within 6 months, defined by EHR code or computable phenotype.

RESULTS

In the N3C, the hazard ratio (HR) for death or PASC with a U09.9 diagnosis code (PASC-U09.0) was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.88; P < 0.001), and for death or N3C computable phenotype PASC (PASC-N3C) was 0.85 (95% CI 0.78-0.92; P < 0.001). In PCORnet, the HR for death or PASC-U09.9 was 0.87 (95% CI 0.66-1.14; P = 0.08), and for death or PCORnet computable phenotype PASC (PASC-PCORnet) was 1.04 (95% CI 0.97-1.11; P = 0.58). Incident PASC by diagnosis code was 1.6% metformin vs. 2.0% comparator in the N3C, and 2.1% metformin vs. 2.5% comparator in PCORnet. By computable phenotype, incidence was 4.8% metformin and 5.2% comparator in the N3C and 24.7% metformin vs. 26.1% comparator in PCORnet.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalent metformin use is associated with a slightly lower incidence of death or PASC after SARS-CoV-2 infection. PASC incidence by computable phenotype is higher than by EHR code, especially in PCORnet. These data are consistent with other observational analyses showing prevalent metformin is associated with favorable outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults with T2DM.

Effect of SARS-CoV-2 Infection on Incident Diabetes by Viral Variant: Findings From the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C)

OBJECTIVE

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has evolved over time by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, disease severity, treatment, and prevention. There is evidence of an elevated risk of incident diabetes after COVID-19; our objective was to evaluate whether this association is consistent across time and with contemporary viral variants.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) data to evaluate incident diabetes risk among COVID-positive adults compared with COVID-negative patients or control patients with acute respiratory illness (ARI). Cohorts were weighted on demographics, data site, and Charlson comorbidity index score. The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence ratio (CIR) of incident diabetes for each viral variant era.

RESULTS

Risk of incident diabetes 1 year after COVID-19 was increased for patients with any viral variant compared with COVID-negative control patients (ancestral CIR 1.16 [95% CI 1.12-1.21]; Alpha CIR 1.14 [95% CI 1.11-1.17]; Delta CIR 1.17 [95% CI 1.13-1.21]; Omicron CIR 1.13 [95% CI 1.10-1.17]) and control patients with ARI (ancestral CIR 1.17 [95% CI 1.11-1.22]; Alpha CIR 1.14 [95% CI 1.09-1.19]; Delta CIR 1.18 [95% CI 1.11-1.26]; Omicron CIR 1.20 [95% CI 1.13-1.27]). There was latency in the timing of incident diabetes risk with the Omicron variant; in contrast with other variants, the risk presented after 180 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident diabetes risk after COVID-19 was similar across different SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, there was greater latency in diabetes onset in the Omicron variant era.

Week-long normoglycaemia in diabetic mice and minipigs via a subcutaneous dose of a glucose-responsive insulin complex

Glucose-responsive formulations of insulin can increase its therapeutic index and reduce the burden of its administration. However, it has been difficult to develop single-dosage formulations that can release insulin in both a sustained and glucose-responsive manner. Here we report the development of a subcutaneously injected glucose-responsive formulation that nearly does not trigger the formation of a fibrous capsule and that leads to week-long normoglycaemia and negligible hypoglycaemia in mice and minipigs with type 1 diabetes. The formulation consists of gluconic acid-modified recombinant human insulin binding tightly to poly-L-lysine modified by 4-carboxy-3-fluorophenylboronic acid via glucose-responsive phenylboronic acid-diol complexation and electrostatic attraction. When the insulin complex is exposed to high glucose concentrations, the phenylboronic acid moieties of the polymers bind rapidly to glucose, breaking the complexation and reducing the polymers' positive charge density, which promotes the release of insulin. The therapeutic performance of this long-acting single-dose formulation supports its further evaluation and clinical translational studies.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate slope and risk of primary and secondary major adverse cardiovascular events and heart failure hospitalization in people with type 2 diabetes: An analysis of the EXSCEL trial

AIM

The decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a significant predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), occurs heterogeneously in people with diabetes because of various risk factors. We investigated the role of eGFR decline in predicting CVD events in people with type 2 diabetes in both primary and secondary CVD prevention settings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Bayesian joint modelling of repeated measures of eGFR and time to CVD event was applied to the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial to examine the association between the eGFR slope and the incidence of major adverse CV event/hospitalization for heart failure (MACE/hHF) (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, CV death, or hospitalization for heart failure). The analysis was adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, baseline eGFR, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medication, diabetes duration, atrial fibrillation, high-density cholesterol, total cholesterol, HbA1c and treatment allocation (once-weekly exenatide or placebo).

RESULTS

Data from 11 101 trial participants with (n = 7942) and without (n = 3159) previous history of CVD were analysed. The mean ± SD eGFR slope per year in participants without and with previous CVD was -0.68 ± 1.67 and -1.03 ± 2.13 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. The 5-year MACE/hHF incidences were 7.5% (95% CI 6.2, 8.8) and 20% (95% CI 19, 22), respectively. The 1-SD decrease in the eGFR slope was associated with increased MACE/hHF risks of 48% (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.12, 1.98, p = 0.007) and 33% (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.18,1.51, p < 0.001) in participants without and with previous CVD, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

eGFR trajectories over time significantly predict incident MACE/hHF events in people with type 2 diabetes with and without existing CVD, with a higher hazard ratio for MACE/hHF in the latter group.

High-dimensional Iterative Causal Forest (hdiCF) for Subgroup Identification Using Health Care Claims Data

We recently developed a machine-learning subgrouping algorithm, iterative causal forest (iCF), to identify subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) using predefined covariates. However, such predefined covariates may miss or poorly define important features leading to inaccurate subgrouping. To address such limitations, we developed a new semi-automatic subgrouping algorithm, hdiCF, which adapts methodology from high-dimensional propensity score for feature recognition in claims data. The hdiCF algorithm has 3 steps: 1) high-dimensional feature identification by International Classification of Diseases, Current Procedural Terminology, and Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical codes (in/outpatient diagnoses, procedures, prescriptions) and creation of ordinal variables by frequency of occurrence; 2) propensity score trimming and high-dimensional feature preparation; 3) iCF implementation to identify subgroups. We applied hdiCF in a 20% random sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who initiated sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists to identify subgroups with HTEs for incidence of hospitalized heart failure. HdiCF findings were consistent with studies suggesting SGLT2i to be more beneficial for patients with pre-existing heart failure or chronic kidney disease. HdiCF is not dependent on prior hypotheses about HTEs and identifies subgroups with markers for potential HTEs in real-world evidence studies where active-comparator, new-user study designs limit the potential for unmeasured confounding.

A Systematic Approach to Evaluating Instrumental Variable Assumptions: Applied Example of Glucose-lowering Medications and Risk for Hospitalized Heart Failure in Older Adults

One obstacle to adopting instrumental variable (IV) methods in pharmacoepidemiology is their reliance on strong, unverifiable assumptions. We can falsify IV assumptions by leveraging the causal structure, which can strengthen or refute their plausibility and increase the validity of effect estimates. We illustrate a systematic approach to evaluate calendar time IV assumptions in estimating the known effect of thiazolidinediones on hospitalized heart failure. Using cohort entry time before and after 09/2010, when the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a safety communication as a proposed IV, we estimated IV and propensity score-weighted 2-year risk differences (RDs) using Medicare data (2008-2014). We (i) performed inequality tests, (ii) identified the negative control IV/outcome using causal assumptions, (iii) estimated RDs after narrowing the calendar time range and excluding patients likely associated with unmeasured confounding, (iv) derived bounds for RDs, and (v) estimated the proportion of compliers and their characteristics. The findings revealed that IV assumptions were violated and RDs were extreme, but the assumptions became more plausible upon narrowing the calendar time range and restricting the cohort by excluding prevalent heart failure (the strongest measured predictor of outcome). Systematically evaluating IV assumptions could help detect bias in IV estimators and increase their validity.

An orally administered glucose-responsive polymeric complex for high-efficiency and safe delivery of insulin in mice and pigs

Contrary to current insulin formulations, endogenous insulin has direct access to the portal vein, regulating glucose metabolism in the liver with minimal hypoglycaemia. Here we report the synthesis of an amphiphilic diblock copolymer comprising a glucose-responsive positively charged segment and polycarboxybetaine. The mixing of this polymer with insulin facilitates the formation of worm-like micelles, achieving highly efficient absorption by the gastrointestinal tract and the creation of a glucose-responsive reservoir in the liver. Under hyperglycaemic conditions, the polymer triggers a rapid release of insulin, establishing a portal-to-peripheral insulin gradient-similarly to endogenous insulin-for the safe regulation of blood glucose. This insulin formulation exhibits a dose-dependent blood-glucose-regulating effect in a streptozotocin-induced mouse model of type 1 diabetes and controls the blood glucose at normoglycaemia for one day in non-obese diabetic mice. In addition, the formulation demonstrates a blood-glucose-lowering effect for one day in a pig model of type 1 diabetes without observable hypoglycaemia, showing promise for the safe and effective management of type 1 diabetes.

Understanding the Pharmacokinetics and Glucodynamics of Once Weekly Basal Insulins to Inform Dosing Principles: An Introduction to Clinicians

OBJECTIVE

A new generation of basal insulin analogs enabling once-weekly administration is currently under development. Weekly basal insulins have the potential to overcome limitations exhibited by current daily basal insulins. The pharmacokinetic and glucodynamic characteristics differ significantly between weekly and daily basal insulins and will require paradigm shifts in how basal insulins are dosed.

METHODS

An overview of pharmacokinetic and glucodynamic principles of basal insulins is presented. Specifically, the pharmacokinetic and glucodynamic properties of daily basal insulins and how these differ for the new weekly basal insulins are discussed. Finally, models and simulations are used to describe the impact of weekly insulin properties on dosing.

RESULTS

Two approaches have been used to extend the half-lives of these insulins, creating fusion proteins with reduced clearance and reduced receptor-mediated degradation of the insulin. The resulting prolonged exposure-response profiles affect dosing and the impact of dosing errors. Specifically, the impact of loading doses, missed doses, and double doses, and the effect on glycemic variability of a once weekly basal insulin option are demonstrated using pharmacokinetic/glucodynamic models and simulations.

CONCLUSIONS

The transition from daily to weekly basal insulin dosing requires an understanding of the implications of the prolonged exposure-response profiles to effectively and confidently incorporate these weekly basal insulins into clinical practice. By reviewing the application of pharmacokinetic and glucodynamic principles to daily basal insulin analogs, the differences with weekly basal insulins, and the impact of these properties on dosing, this review intends to explain the principles behind weekly basal insulin dosing.

Recent Progress in Glucose-Responsive Insulin

Insulin replacement therapy is indispensable in the treatment of type 1 and advanced type 2 diabetes. However, insulin's clinical application is challenging due to its narrow therapeutic index. To mitigate acute and chronic risks of glucose excursions, glucose-responsive insulin (GRI) has long been pursued for clinical application. By integrating GRI with glucose-sensitive elements, GRI is capable of releasing or activating insulin in response to plasma or interstitial glucose levels without external monitoring, thereby improving glycemic control and reducing hypoglycemic risk. In this Perspective, we first introduce the history of GRI development and then review major glucose-responsive components that can be leveraged to control insulin delivery. Subsequently, we highlight the recent advances in GRI delivery carriers and insulin analogs. Finally, we provide a look to the future and the challenges of clinical application of GRI.

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

A Randomized Comparison of Postprandial Glucose Excursion Using Inhaled Insulin Versus Rapid-Acting Analog Insulin in Adults With Type 1 Diabetes Using Multiple Daily Injections of Insulin or Automated Insulin Delivery

OBJECTIVE

To compare postprandial glucose excursions following a bolus with inhaled technosphere insulin (TI) or subcutaneous rapid-acting analog (RAA) insulin.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A meal challenge was completed by 122 adults with type 1 diabetes who were using multiple daily injections (MDI), a nonautomated pump, or automated insulin delivery (AID) and who were randomized to bolus with their usual RAA insulin (n = 61) or TI (n = 61).

RESULTS

The primary outcome, the treatment group difference in area under the curve for glucose >180 mg/dL over 2 h, was less with TI versus RAA (adjusted difference -12 mg/dL, 95% CI -22 to -2, P = 0.02). With TI, the glucose excursion was smaller (P = 0.01), peak glucose lower (P = 0.01), and time to peak glucose shorter (P = 0.006). Blood glucose <70 mg/dL occurred in one participant in each group.

CONCLUSIONS

Postmeal glucose excursion was smaller with TI than with RAA insulin in a cohort that included both AID and MDI users.

Adaptive selection at G6PD and disparities in diabetes complications

Diabetes complications occur at higher rates in individuals of African ancestry. Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDdef), common in some African populations, confers malaria resistance, and reduces hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels by shortening erythrocyte lifespan. In a combined-ancestry genome-wide association study of diabetic retinopathy, we identified nine loci including a G6PDdef causal variant, rs1050828 -T (Val98Met), which was also associated with increased risk of other diabetes complications. The effect of rs1050828 -T on retinopathy was fully mediated by glucose levels. In the years preceding diabetes diagnosis and insulin prescription, glucose levels were significantly higher and HbA1c significantly lower in those with versus without G6PDdef. In the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial, participants with G6PDdef had significantly higher hazards of incident retinopathy and neuropathy. At the same HbA1c levels, G6PDdef participants in both ACCORD and the Million Veteran Program had significantly increased risk of retinopathy. We estimate that 12% and 9% of diabetic retinopathy and neuropathy cases, respectively, in participants of African ancestry are due to this exposure. Across continentally defined ancestral populations, the differences in frequency of rs1050828 -T and other G6PDdef alleles contribute to disparities in diabetes complications. Diabetes management guided by glucose or potentially genotype-adjusted HbA1c levels could lead to more timely diagnoses and appropriate intensification of therapy, decreasing the risk of diabetes complications in patients with G6PDdef alleles.

Favorable Antiviral Effect of Metformin on SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in a Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Metformin has antiviral activity against RNA viruses including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The mechanism appears to be suppression of protein translation via targeting the host mechanistic target of rapamycin pathway. In the COVID-OUT randomized trial for outpatient coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), metformin reduced the odds of hospitalizations/death through 28 days by 58%, of emergency department visits/hospitalizations/death through 14 days by 42%, and of long COVID through 10 months by 42%.

METHODS

COVID-OUT was a 2 × 3 randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial that assessed metformin, fluvoxamine, and ivermectin; 999 participants self-collected anterior nasal swabs on day 1 (n = 945), day 5 (n = 871), and day 10 (n = 775). Viral load was quantified using reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

The mean SARS-CoV-2 viral load was reduced 3.6-fold with metformin relative to placebo (-0.56 log10 copies/mL; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.05 to -.06; P = .027). Those who received metformin were less likely to have a detectable viral load than placebo at day 5 or day 10 (odds ratio [OR], 0.72; 95% CI, .55 to .94). Viral rebound, defined as a higher viral load at day 10 than day 5, was less frequent with metformin (3.28%) than placebo (5.95%; OR, 0.68; 95% CI, .36 to 1.29). The metformin effect was consistent across subgroups and increased over time. Neither ivermectin nor fluvoxamine showed effect over placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

In this randomized, placebo-controlled trial of outpatient treatment of SARS-CoV-2, metformin significantly reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral load, which may explain the clinical benefits in this trial. Metformin is pleiotropic with other actions that are relevant to COVID-19 pathophysiology.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT04510194.

Study protocol for a prospective, multicentre study of hypercortisolism in patients with difficult-to-control type 2 diabetes (CATALYST): prevalence and treatment with mifepristone

INTRODUCTION

Even with recent treatment advances, type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains poorly controlled for many patients, despite the best efforts to adhere to therapies and lifestyle modifications. Although estimates vary, studies indicate that in >10% of individuals with difficult-to-control T2D, hypercortisolism may be an underlying contributing cause. To better understand the prevalence of hypercortisolism and the impact of its treatment on T2D and associated comorbidities, we describe the two-part Hyper c ortisolism in P at ients with Difficult to Control Type 2 Di a betes Despite Receiving Standard-of-Care Therapies: Preva l ence and Treatment with Korl y m® (Mifepri st one) (CATALYST) trial.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

In part 1, approximately 1000 participants with difficult-to-control T2D (haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) 7.5%-11.5% despite multiple therapies) are screened with a 1 mg dexamethasone suppression test (DST). Those with post-DST cortisol >1.8 µg/dL and dexamethasone level ≥140 ng/dL are identified to have hypercortisolism (part 1 primary endpoint), have morning adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) measured and undergo a non-contrast adrenal CT scan. Those requiring evaluation for elevated ACTH are referred for care outside the study; those with ACTH and DHEAS in the range may advance to part 2, a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the impact of treating hypercortisolism with the competitive glucocorticoid receptor antagonist mifepristone (Korlym®). Participants are randomised 2:1 to mifepristone or placebo for 24 weeks, stratified by the presence/absence of an abnormal adrenal CT scan. Mifepristone is dosed at 300 mg once daily for 4 weeks, then 600 mg daily based on tolerability and clinical improvement, with an option to increase to 900 mg. The primary endpoint of part 2 assesses changes in HbA1c in participants with hypercortisolism with or without abnormal adrenal CT scan. Secondary endpoints include changes in antidiabetes medications, cortisol-related comorbidities and quality of life.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by Cleveland Clinic IRB (Cleveland, Ohio, USA) and Advarra IRB (Columbia, Maryland, USA). Findings will be presented at scientific meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05772169.

Glucagon-like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonists and Asthma Exacerbations: Which Patients Benefit Most?

RATIONALE

While recent evidence suggested glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA) may reduce the risk of asthma exacerbations, it remains unclear which subpopulations might derive the most benefit from GLP1RA treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To identify characteristics of patients with asthma that predict who might benefit the most from GLP1RA treatment using real-world data.

METHODS

We implemented an active-comparator, new-user design analysis using commercially insured patients ages 18-65 from Marketscan data 2007-2019 and identified two cohorts: GLP1RA vs thiazolidinediones and GLP1RA vs sulfonylureas. The outcome was acute exacerbation of asthma (hospital admission or emergency department (ED) visit for asthma) within 180 days after initiation. We applied iterative causal forest (iCF), a novel causal machine learning subgrouping algorithm, to assess HTE. In identified subgroups, we predicted propensity score, conducted propensity score trimming, and then estimated adjusted risk differences (aRD) for the effect of GLP1RA relative to comparators on asthma exacerbation using inverse probability treatment weighting in propensity score trimmed subpopulation.

RESULTS

Among 10,989 patients initiating GLP1RA or thiazolidinediones and 17,088 patients initiating GLP1RA vs sulfonylurea, GLP1RA initiators had fewer exacerbations with an aRD of -0.5% (95% CI -1.1% to 0.1%) and -1.6% (95% CI -2.2% to -1.1%), respectively. In the GLP1RAvsSUcohort where we observed beneficial effect, our iCF analysis identified 5 subgroups with different treatment effects, defined by number of ED visits, number of prescriptions of short-acting beta2-agonsit (SABA), number of prescriptions of inhaled steroid (ICS) and long-acting beta-agonists (LABA) (either combination therapy or concurrent use), and aged 50+. Among these, patients with 2+ ED visits during 12-month baseline period had the largest absolute exacerbation risk reduction, with a decrease of 2.8% for GLP1RA (95% CI: -4.8% to -0.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

GLP1RA demonstrated beneficial effect on reducing asthma exacerbation relative to sulfonylureas. Asthma patients with 2+ ED visits (a proxy for disease severity) benefit most from GLP1RA. ED visit frequency, and number of maintenance and reliever inhalers, and age may help individualize prediction of the short-term benefit from GLP1RA on asthma exacerbation.

Skeletal muscle density performance for screening frailty in older adults with cancer and the impact of diabetes: The CARE Registry

INTRODUCTION

Skeletal muscle density (SMD) measurements from imaging scans identify myosteatosis and could screen patients for geriatric assessment. We assessed SMD performance as a screening tool to identify older adults with cancer likely to be frail and who could benefit from in-depth assessment; we compared performance by sex and diabetes status.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed patients in the Cancer & Aging Resilience Evaluation (CARE) Registry. Frailty and diabetes were captured using a patient-reported geriatric assessment (CARE tool). Frailty was defined using CARE frailty index (CARE-FI) based on principles of deficit accumulation. SMD was calculated from computed tomography scans (L3 vertebrae). Analyses were conducted by sex and diabetes status. Scatterplots and linear regression described crude associations between SMD and frailty score. Classification performance (frail vs. non-frail) was analyzed with (1) area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and confidence intervals (CIs); and (2) sensitivity/specificity for sex-specific SMD quartile cut-offs (Q1, median, Q3). Performance was compared between patients with and without diabetes using differences and estimated CIs (2000 bootstrap replicates). We additionally calculated positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+, LR-).

RESULTS

The analytic cohort included 872 patients (39% female, median age 68 years, 27% with diabetes) with predominately stage III/IV gastrointestinal cancer; >60% planning to initiate first-line chemotherapy. SMD was negatively associated with frailty score; models were best fit in male patients with diabetes. AUC estimates for female (range: 0.58-0.62) and male (0.58-0.68) patients were low. Q3 cut-offs had high sensitivity (range: 0.76-0.89), but poor specificity (0.25-0.34). Diabetes did not impact estimates for female patients. Male patients with diabetes had greater sensitivity estimates compared to those without (sensitivity differences: 0.23 [0.07, 0.38], 0.08 [-0.07, 0.24], and 0.11 [0.00, 0.22] for Q1, median, Q3, respectively). LR estimates were most notable for male patients with diabetes (LR+ = 2.92, Q1 cut-off; LR- = 0.46, Q3 cut-off).

DISCUSSION

Using SMD alone to screen older patients for geriatric assessment requires improvement. High-sensitivity cut-off points could miss 11-24% of patients with frailty, and many non-frail patients may be flagged. Screening with SMD is practical but work is needed to understand clinical andresource impacts of different cut-off points. Future research should evaluate performance with additional clinical data and in subgroups.

Polygenic subtype identified in ACCORD trial displays a favorable type 2 diabetes phenotype in the UKBiobank population

INTRODUCTION

We previously identified a genetic subtype (C4) of type 2 diabetes (T2D), benefitting from intensive glycemia treatment in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. Here, we characterized the population of patients that met the C4 criteria in the UKBiobank cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using our polygenic score (PS), we identified C4 individuals in the UKBiobank and tested C4 status with risk of developing T2D, cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, and differences in T2D medications.

RESULTS

C4 individuals were less likely to develop T2D, were slightly older at T2D diagnosis, had lower HbA1c values, and were less likely to be prescribed T2D medications (P < .05). Genetic variants in MAS1 and IGF2R, major components of the C4 PS, were associated with fewer overall T2D prescriptions.

CONCLUSION

We have confirmed C4 individuals are a lower risk subpopulation of patients with T2D.

Risk of Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection (PASC) Among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus on Anti-Hyperglycemic Medications

Background

Observed activity of metformin in reducing the risk of severe COVID-19 suggests a potential use of the anti-hyperglycemic in the prevention of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). We assessed the 3-month and 6-month risk of PASC among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) comparing metformin users to sulfonylureas (SU) or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) users.

Methods

We used de-identified patient level electronic health record data from the National Covid Cohort Collaborative (N3C) between October 2021 and April 2023. Participants were adults ≥ 18 years with T2DM who had at least one outpatient healthcare encounter in health institutions in the United States prior to COVID-19 diagnosis. The outcome of PASC was defined based on the presence of a diagnosis code for the illness or using a predicted probability based on a machine learning algorithm. We estimated the 3-month and 6-month risk of PASC and calculated crude and weighted risk ratios (RR), risk differences (RD), and differences in mean predicted probability.

Results

We identified 5596 (mean age: 61.1 years; SD: 12.6) and 1451 (mean age: 64.9 years; SD 12.5) eligible prevalent users of metformin and SU/DPP4i respectively. We did not find a significant difference in risk of PASC at 3 months (RR = 0.86 [0.56; 1.32], RD = -3.06 per 1000 [-12.14; 6.01]), or at 6 months (RR = 0.81 [0.55; 1.20], RD = -4.91 per 1000 [-14.75, 4.93]) comparing prevalent users of metformin to prevalent users of SU/ DPP4i. Similar observations were made for the outcome definition using the ML algorithm.

Conclusion

The observed estimates in our study are consistent with a reduced risk of PASC among prevalent users of metformin, however the uncertainty of our confidence intervals warrants cautious interpretations of the results. A standardized clinical definition of PASC is warranted for thorough evaluation of the effectiveness of therapies under assessment for the prevention of PASC.

Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists Do Not Increase Aspiration During Upper Endoscopy in Patients With Diabetes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Glucagon-like peptide-1-receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) have been associated with greater retention of gastric contents, however, there is minimal controlled, population-based data evaluating the potential adverse effects of GLP1-RA in the periprocedural setting. We aimed to determine if there is increased risk of aspiration and aspiration-related complications after upper endoscopy in patients using GLP1-RAs.

METHODS

We used a nationwide commercial administrative claims database to conduct a retrospective cohort study of patients aged 18 to 64 with type 2 diabetes who underwent outpatient upper endoscopy from 2005 to 2021. We identified 6,806,046 unique upper endoscopy procedures. We compared claims for aspiration and associated pulmonary adverse events in the 14 days after upper endoscopy between users of GLP1-RAs, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP4is), and chronic opioids. We adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity score, underlying respiratory disease, and gastroparesis.

RESULTS

We found that pulmonary adverse events after upper endoscopy are rare, ranging from 6 to 25 events per 10,000 procedures. When comparing GLP1-RAs with DPP4i, crude relative risks of aspiration (0.67; 95% CI, 0.25-1.75), aspiration pneumonia (0.95; 95% CI, 0.40-2.29), pneumonia (1.07; 95% CI, 0.62-1.86), or respiratory failure (0.75; 95% CI, 0.38-1.48) were not higher in patients prescribed a GLP1-RA. When comparing GLP1-RAs with opioids, crude relative risks were 0.42 (95% CI, 0.15-1.16) for aspiration, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.24-1.52) for aspiration pneumonia, 0.30 (95% CI, 0.19-0.49) for pneumonia, and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.13-0.45) for respiratory failure. These results were consistent across several sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

GLP1-RA use is not associated with an increased risk of pulmonary complications after upper endoscopy compared with DPP4i use in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Iterative Causal Forest: A Novel Algorithm for Subgroup Identification

Precisely and efficiently identifying subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in real-world evidence studies remains a challenge. Based on the causal forest (CF) method, we developed an iterative CF (iCF) algorithm to identify HTEs in subgroups defined by important variables. Our method iteratively grows different depths of the CF with important effect modifiers, performs plurality votes to obtain decision trees (subgroup decisions) for a family of CFs with different depths, and then finds the cross-validated subgroup decision that best predicts the treatment effect as a final subgroup decision. We simulated 12 different scenarios and showed that the iCF outperformed other machine learning methods for interaction/subgroup identification in the majority of scenarios assessed. Using a 20% random sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries initiating sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, we implemented the iCF to identify subgroups with HTEs for hospitalized heart failure. Consistent with previous studies suggesting patients with heart failure benefit more from sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, iCF successfully identified such a subpopulation with HTEs and additive interactions. The iCF is a promising method for identifying subgroups with HTEs in real-world data where the potential for unmeasured confounding can be limited by study design.

Efficacy and Safety of Liraglutide in Patients With an Ileal Pouch-Anal Anastomosis and Chronic High Bowel Frequency: A Placebo-Controlled, Crossover, Proof-of-Concept Study

INTRODUCTION

After colectomy with ileoanal pouch anastomosis (IPAA), many patients develop high bowel frequency (BF) refractory to antimotility agents, despite normal IPAA morphology. Low circulating levels of glucagon-like protein-1 (GLP-1), a modulator of gastroduodenal motility, have been reported after colectomy.

METHODS

Double-blind crossover study of 8 IPAA patients with refractory high BF treated with daily administration of the GLP-1 receptor agonist liraglutide or placebo.

RESULTS

Liraglutide, but not placebo, reduced daily BF by more than 35% ( P < 0.03).

DISCUSSION

Larger randomized controlled studies are warranted to delineate the treatment potential of GLP-1 receptor agonists in IPAA patients suffering from noninflammatory high BF.

Geriatric Assessment Impairment Profiles and Mortality in Older Adults With Gastrointestinal Cancers: Latent Class Analysis of the CARE Registry

BACKGROUND

Many older adults with cancer have ≥2 impairments on geriatric assessment, which affects present and future frailty status, treatment tolerability, and outcomes. Our objective was to identify and describe distinct geriatric assessment impairment classes using latent class analysis (LCA) in older patients with gastrointestinal malignancies and assess 1-year mortality.

METHODS

We used the Cancer & Aging Resilience Evaluation (CARE) Study, a registry of older adults (≥60 years) at University of Alabama at Birmingham. The analytic cohort included patients with gastrointestinal malignancies who completed a self-administered geriatric assessment (CARE tool) before chemotherapy and had ≥1 geriatric assessment impairment. Thirteen geriatric assessment impairments were used as indicators in LCA. Resultant classes were described, mortality was estimated, and risk contrasts (differences and hazard ratios) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. For comparison, estimates were provided for frailty categories (robust, prefrail, and frail) determined from 44 items in the CARE tool. Stratified analyses included high-risk (pancreatic, hepatobiliary, and esophageal) versus low-risk gastrointestinal cancers, and stage (IV vs I-III).

RESULTS

Six geriatric assessment impairment classes were identified: Mild impairment (LC1); Social support impairment (LC2); Weight loss alone (LC3); Impaired, low anxiety/depression (LC4); Impaired with anxiety/depression (LC5); and Global impairment (LC6). One-year mortality was 14%, 22%, 29%, 34%, 50%, and 50% for LC1-LC6, respectively. For frailty categories, estimates ranged from 18% (robust) to 40% (frail). In stratified analyses, LC4-LC6 consistently had higher mortality estimates compared to LC1.

CONCLUSIONS

The 6 geriatric assessment impairment classes showed a wider spread of mortality estimates compared to frailty categories and could be used to identify vulnerable patients and to plan interventions.

Regional variation in cause of death in patients with type 2 diabetes: Insights from EXSCEL

AIMS

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a risk factor for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality. However, global distribution of cause-specific deaths in T2D is poorly understood. We characterized cause-specific deaths by geographic region among individuals with T2D at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The international EXSCEL trial included 14,752 participants with T2D (73% with established CVD). We identified the proportion of deaths over 5-year follow-up attributed to cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes, and associated risk factors. During median 3.2-year follow-up, 1,091 (7.4%) participants died. Adjudicated causes of death were 723 cardiovascular (66.3% of deaths), including 252 unknown, and 368 non-cardiovascular (33.7%). Most deaths occurred in North America (N = 356/9.6% across region) and Eastern Europe (N = 326/8.1%), with fewest in Asia/Pacific (N = 68/4.4%). The highest proportional cause-specific deaths by region were sudden cardiac in Asia/Pacific (23/34% of regional deaths) and North America (86/24%); unknown in Eastern Europe (90/28%) and Western Europe (39/21%); and non-malignant non-cardiovascular in Latin America (48/31%). Cox proportional hazards model for adjudicated causes of death showed prognostic risk factors (hazard ratio [95% CI]) for cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths, respectively: heart failure 2.04 (1.72-2.42) and 1.86 (1.46-2.39); peripheral artery disease 1.83 (1.54-2.18) and 1.78 (1.40-2.26); and current smoking status 1.61 (1.29-2.01) and 1.77 (1.31-2.40).

CONCLUSIONS

In a contemporary T2D trial population, with and without established CVD, leading causes of death varied by geographic region. Underlying mechanisms leading to variability in cause of death across geographic regions and its impact on clinical trial endpoints warrant future research.

Association of Premorbid GLP-1RA and SGLT-2i Prescription Alone and in Combination with COVID-19 Severity

INTRODUCTION

People with type 2 diabetes are at heightened risk for severe outcomes related to COVID-19 infection, including hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, and mortality. This study was designed to examine the impact of premorbid use of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) monotherapy, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT-2i) monotherapy, and concomitant GLP1-RA/SGLT-2i therapy on the severity of outcomes in individuals with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

METHODS

Utilizing observational data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative through September 2022, we compared outcomes in 78,806 individuals with a prescription of GLP-1RA and SGLT-2i versus a prescription of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) within 24 months of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. We also compared concomitant GLP-1RA/SGLT-2i therapy to GLP-1RA and SGLT-2i monotherapy. The primary outcome was 60-day mortality, measured from the positive test date. Secondary outcomes included emergency room (ER) visits, hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation within 14 days. Using a super learner approach and accounting for baseline characteristics, associations were quantified with odds ratios (OR) estimated with targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE).

RESULTS

Use of GLP-1RA (OR 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.72) and SGLT-2i (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.57-0.68) were associated with lower odds of 60-day mortality compared to DPP-4i use. Additionally, the OR of ER visits and hospitalizations were similarly reduced with GLP1-RA and SGLT-2i use. Concomitant GLP-1RA/SGLT-2i use showed similar odds of 60-day mortality when compared to GLP-1RA or SGLT-2i use alone (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.81-1.05 and OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76-1.01, respectively). However, lower OR of all secondary outcomes were associated with concomitant GLP-1RA/SGLT-2i use when compared to SGLT-2i use alone.

CONCLUSION

Among adults who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, premorbid use of either GLP-1RA or SGLT-2i is associated with lower odds of mortality compared to DPP-4i. Furthermore, concomitant use of GLP-1RA and SGLT-2i is linked to lower odds of other severe COVID-19 outcomes, including ER visits, hospitalizations, and mechanical ventilation, compared to SGLT-2i use alone. Graphical abstract available for this article.