Genetic influence on within-person longitudinal change in anthropometric traits in the UK Biobank

The causes of temporal fluctuations in adult traits are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the genetic determinants of within-person trait variability of 8 repeatedly measured anthropometric traits in 50,117 individuals from the UK Biobank. We found that within-person (non-directional) variability had a SNP-based heritability of 2-5% for height, sitting height, body mass index (BMI) and weight (P ≤ 2.4 × 10-3). We also analysed longitudinal trait change and show a loss of both average height and weight beyond about 70 years of age. A variant tracking the Alzheimer's risk APOE- E 4 allele (rs429358) was significantly associated with weight loss ( β  = -0.047 kg per yr, s.e. 0.007, P = 2.2 × 10-11), and using 2-sample Mendelian Randomisation we detected a relationship consistent with causality between decreased lumbar spine bone mineral density and height loss (bxy = 0.011, s.e. 0.003, P = 3.5 × 10-4). Finally, population-level variance quantitative trait loci (vQTL) were consistent with within-person variability for several traits, indicating an overlap between trait variability assessed at the population or individual level. Our findings help elucidate the genetic influence on trait-change within an individual and highlight disease risks associated with these changes.

Leveraging functional genomic annotations and genome coverage to improve polygenic prediction of complex traits within and between ancestries

We develop a method, SBayesRC, that integrates genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics with functional genomic annotations to improve polygenic prediction of complex traits. Our method is scalable to whole-genome variant analysis and refines signals from functional annotations by allowing them to affect both causal variant probability and causal effect distribution. We analyze 50 complex traits and diseases using ∼7 million common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 96 annotations. SBayesRC improves prediction accuracy by 14% in European ancestry and up to 34% in cross-ancestry prediction compared to the baseline method SBayesR, which does not use annotations, and outperforms other methods, including LDpred2, LDpred-funct, MegaPRS, PolyPred-S and PRS-CSx. Investigation of factors affecting prediction accuracy identifies a significant interaction between SNP density and annotation information, suggesting whole-genome sequence variants with annotations may further improve prediction. Functional partitioning analysis highlights a major contribution of evolutionary constrained regions to prediction accuracy and the largest per-SNP contribution from nonsynonymous SNPs.

Genome-wide analysis in over 1 million individuals of European ancestry yields improved polygenic risk scores for blood pressure traits

Hypertension affects more than one billion people worldwide. Here we identify 113 novel loci, reporting a total of 2,103 independent genetic signals (P < 5 × 10-8) from the largest single-stage blood pressure (BP) genome-wide association study to date (n = 1,028,980 European individuals). These associations explain more than 60% of single nucleotide polymorphism-based BP heritability. Comparing top versus bottom deciles of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) reveals clinically meaningful differences in BP (16.9 mmHg systolic BP, 95% CI, 15.5-18.2 mmHg, P = 2.22 × 10-126) and more than a sevenfold higher odds of hypertension risk (odds ratio, 7.33; 95% CI, 5.54-9.70; P = 4.13 × 10-44) in an independent dataset. Adding PRS into hypertension-prediction models increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) from 0.791 (95% CI, 0.781-0.801) to 0.826 (95% CI, 0.817-0.836, ∆AUROC, 0.035, P = 1.98 × 10-34). We compare the 2,103 loci results in non-European ancestries and show significant PRS associations in a large African-American sample. Secondary analyses implicate 500 genes previously unreported for BP. Our study highlights the role of increasingly large genomic studies for precision health research.

Genetic control of DNA methylation is largely shared across European and East Asian populations

DNA methylation is an ideal trait to study the extent of the shared genetic control across ancestries, effectively providing hundreds of thousands of model molecular traits with large QTL effect sizes. We investigate cis DNAm QTLs in three European (n = 3701) and two East Asian (n = 2099) cohorts to quantify the similarities and differences in the genetic architecture across populations. We observe 80,394 associated mQTLs (62.2% of DNAm probes with significant mQTL) to be significant in both ancestries, while 28,925 mQTLs (22.4%) are identified in only a single ancestry. mQTL effect sizes are highly conserved across populations, with differences in mQTL discovery likely due to differences in allele frequency of associated variants and differing linkage disequilibrium between causal variants and assayed SNPs. This study highlights the overall similarity of genetic control across ancestries and the value of ancestral diversity in increasing the power to detect associations and enhancing fine mapping resolution.

Unravelling the complex causal effects of substance use behaviours on common diseases

BACKGROUND

Substance use behaviours (SUB) including smoking, alcohol consumption, and coffee intake are associated with many health outcomes. However, whether the health effects of SUB are causal remains controversial, especially for alcohol consumption and coffee intake.

METHODS

In this study, we assess 11 commonly used Mendelian Randomization (MR) methods by simulation and apply them to investigate the causal relationship between 7 SUB traits and health outcomes. We also combine stratified regression, genetic correlation, and MR analyses to investigate the dosage-dependent effects.

RESULTS

We show that smoking initiation has widespread risk effects on common diseases such as asthma, type 2 diabetes, and peripheral vascular disease. Alcohol consumption shows risk effects specifically on cardiovascular diseases, dyslipidemia, and hypertensive diseases. We find evidence of dosage-dependent effects of coffee and tea intake on common diseases (e.g., cardiovascular disease and osteoarthritis). We observe that the minor allele effect of rs4410790 (the top signal for tea intake level) is negative on heavy tea intake ( b ̂ G W A S = - 0.091 , s . e . = 0.007 , P = 4.90 × 10 - 35 ) but positive on moderate tea intake ( b ̂ G W A S = 0.034 , s . e . = 0.006 , P = 3.40 × 10 - 8 ) , compared to the non-tea-drinkers.

CONCLUSION

Our study reveals the complexity of the health effects of SUB and informs design for future studies aiming to dissect the causal relationships between behavioural traits and complex diseases.

Cross-ancestry analyses identify new genetic loci associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D

Vitamin D status-a complex trait influenced by environmental and genetic factors-is tightly associated with skin colour and ancestry. Yet very few studies have investigated the genetic underpinnings of vitamin D levels across diverse ancestries, and the ones that have, relied on small sample sizes, resulting in inconclusive results. Here, we conduct genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD)-the main circulating form of vitamin D-in 442,435 individuals from four broad genetically-determined ancestry groups represented in the UK Biobank: European (N = 421,867), South Asian (N = 9,983), African (N = 8,306) and East Asian (N = 2,279). We identify a new genetic determinant of 25OHD (rs146759773) in individuals of African ancestry, which was not detected in previous analysis of much larger European cohorts due to low minor allele frequency. We show genome-wide significant evidence of dominance effects in 25OHD that protect against vitamin D deficiency. Given that key events in the synthesis of 25OHD occur in the skin and are affected by pigmentation levels, we conduct GWAS of 25OHD stratified by skin colour and identify new associations. Lastly, we test the interaction between skin colour and variants associated with variance in 25OHD levels and identify two loci (rs10832254 and rs1352846) whose association with 25OHD differs in individuals of distinct complexions. Collectively, our results provide new insights into the complex relationship between 25OHD and skin colour and highlight the importance of diversity in genomic studies. Despite the much larger rates of vitamin D deficiency that we and others report for ancestry groups with dark skin (e.g., South Asian), our study highlights the importance of considering ancestral background and/or skin colour when assessing the implications of low vitamin D.

Boosting the power of genome-wide association studies within and across ancestries by using polygenic scores

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been mostly conducted in populations of European ancestry, which currently limits the transferability of their findings to other populations. Here, we show, through theory, simulations and applications to real data, that adjustment of GWAS analyses for polygenic scores (PGSs) increases the statistical power for discovery across all ancestries. We applied this method to analyze seven traits available in three large biobanks with participants of East Asian ancestry (n = 340,000 in total) and report 139 additional associations across traits. We also present a two-stage meta-analysis strategy whereby, in contributing cohorts, a PGS-adjusted GWAS is rerun using PGSs derived from a first round of a standard meta-analysis. On average, across traits, this approach yields a 1.26-fold increase in the number of detected associations (range 1.07- to 1.76-fold increase). Altogether, our study demonstrates the value of using PGSs to increase the power of GWASs in underrepresented populations and promotes such an analytical strategy for future GWAS meta-analyses.

Community-wide genome sequencing reveals 30 years of Darwin's finch evolution

A fundamental goal in evolutionary biology is to understand the genetic architecture of adaptive traits. Using whole-genome data of 3955 of Darwin's finches on the Galápagos Island of Daphne Major, we identified six loci of large effect that explain 45% of the variation in the highly heritable beak size of Geospiza fortis, a key ecological trait. The major locus is a supergene comprising four genes. Abrupt changes in allele frequencies at the loci accompanied a strong change in beak size caused by natural selection during a drought. A gradual change in Geospiza scandens occurred across 30 years as a result of introgressive hybridization with G. fortis. This study shows how a few loci with large effect on a fitness-related trait contribute to the genetic potential for rapid adaptive radiation.

Chromosomal inversion polymorphisms shape human brain morphology

The impact of chromosomal inversions on human brain morphology remains underexplored. We studied 35 common inversions classified from genotypes of 33,018 adults with European ancestry. The inversions at 2p22.3, 16p11.2, and 17q21.31 reach genome-wide significance, followed by 8p23.1 and 6p21.33, in their association with cortical and subcortical morphology. The 17q21.31, 8p23.1, and 16p11.2 regions comprise the LRRC37, OR7E, and NPIP duplicated gene families. We find the 17q21.31 MAPT inversion region, known for harboring neurological risk, to be the most salient locus among common variants for shaping and patterning the cortex. Overall, we observe the inverted orientations decreasing brain size, with the exception that the 2p22.3 inversion is associated with increased subcortical volume and the 8p23.1 inversion is associated with increased motor cortex. These significant inversions are in the genomic hotspots of neuropsychiatric loci. Our findings are generalizable to 3,472 children and demonstrate inversions as essential genetic variation to understand human brain phenotypes.

Joint analysis of GWAS and multi-omics QTL summary statistics reveals a large fraction of GWAS signals shared with molecular phenotypes

Molecular quantitative trait loci (xQTLs) are often harnessed to prioritize genes or functional elements underpinning variant-trait associations identified from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Here, we introduce OPERA, a method that jointly analyzes GWAS and multi-omics xQTL summary statistics to enhance the identification of molecular phenotypes associated with complex traits through shared causal variants. Applying OPERA to summary-level GWAS data for 50 complex traits (n = 20,833-766,345) and xQTL data from seven omics layers (n = 100-31,684) reveals that 50% of the GWAS signals are shared with at least one molecular phenotype. GWAS signals shared with multiple molecular phenotypes, such as those at the MSMB locus for prostate cancer, are particularly informative for understanding the genetic regulatory mechanisms underlying complex traits. Future studies with more molecular phenotypes, measured considering spatiotemporal effects in larger samples, are required to obtain a more saturated map linking molecular intermediates to GWAS signals.

Polygenic risk prediction: why and when out-of-sample prediction R2 can exceed SNP-based heritability

In polygenic score (PGS) analysis, the coefficient of determination (R2) is a key statistic to evaluate efficacy. R2 is the proportion of phenotypic variance explained by the PGS, calculated in a cohort that is independent of the genome-wide association study (GWAS) that provided estimates of allelic effect sizes. The SNP-based heritability (hSNP2, the proportion of total phenotypic variances attributable to all common SNPs) is the theoretical upper limit of the out-of-sample prediction R2. However, in real data analyses R2 has been reported to exceed hSNP2, which occurs in parallel with the observation that hSNP2 estimates tend to decline as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. Here, we quantify why and when these observations are expected. Using theory and simulation, we show that if heterogeneities in cohort-specific hSNP2 exist, or if genetic correlations between cohorts are less than one, hSNP2 estimates can decrease as the number of cohorts being meta-analyzed increases. We derive conditions when the out-of-sample prediction R2 will be greater than hSNP2 and show the validity of our derivations with real data from a binary trait (major depression) and a continuous trait (educational attainment). Our research calls for a better approach to integrating information from multiple cohorts to address issues of between-cohort heterogeneity.

Rare genetic variants underlie outlying levels of DNA methylation and gene-expression

Testing the effect of rare variants on phenotypic variation is difficult due to the need for extremely large cohorts to identify associated variants given expected effect sizes. An alternative approach is to investigate the effect of rare genetic variants on DNA methylation (DNAm) as effect sizes are expected to be larger for molecular traits compared with complex traits. Here, we investigate DNAm in healthy ageing populations-the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 and 1936-and identify both transient and stable outlying DNAm levels across the genome. We find an enrichment of rare genetic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 1 kb of DNAm sites in individuals with stable outlying DNAm, implying genetic control of this extreme variation. Using a family-based cohort, the Brisbane Systems Genetics Study, we observed increased sharing of DNAm outliers among more closely related individuals, consistent with these outliers being driven by rare genetic variation. We demonstrated that outlying DNAm levels have a functional consequence on gene expression levels, with extreme levels of DNAm being associated with gene expression levels toward the tails of the population distribution. This study demonstrates the role of rare SNPs in the phenotypic variation of DNAm and the effect of extreme levels of DNAm on gene expression.

Interactions between the lipidome and genetic and environmental factors in autism

Autism omics research has historically been reductionist and diagnosis centric, with little attention paid to common co-occurring conditions (for example, sleep and feeding disorders) and the complex interplay between molecular profiles and neurodevelopment, genetics, environmental factors and health. Here we explored the plasma lipidome (783 lipid species) in 765 children (485 diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD)) within the Australian Autism Biobank. We identified lipids associated with ASD diagnosis (n = 8), sleep disturbances (n = 20) and cognitive function (n = 8) and found that long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids may causally contribute to sleep disturbances mediated by the FADS gene cluster. We explored the interplay of environmental factors with neurodevelopment and the lipidome, finding that sleep disturbances and unhealthy diet have a convergent lipidome profile (with potential mediation by the microbiome) that is also independently associated with poorer adaptive function. In contrast, ASD lipidome differences were accounted for by dietary differences and sleep disturbances. We identified a large chr19p13.2 copy number variant genetic deletion spanning the LDLR gene and two high-confidence ASD genes (ELAVL3 and SMARCA4) in one child with an ASD diagnosis and widespread low-density lipoprotein-related lipidome derangements. Lipidomics captures the complexity of neurodevelopment, as well as the biological effects of conditions that commonly affect quality of life among autistic people.

15 years of GWAS discovery: Realizing the promise

It has been 15 years since the advent of the genome-wide association study (GWAS) era. Here, we review how this experimental design has realized its promise by facilitating an impressive range of discoveries with remarkable impact on multiple fields, including population genetics, complex trait genetics, epidemiology, social science, and medicine. We predict that the emergence of large-scale biobanks will continue to expand to more diverse populations and capture more of the allele frequency spectrum through whole-genome sequencing, which will further improve our ability to investigate the causes and consequences of human genetic variation for complex traits and diseases.

Genetic and modifiable risk factors combine multiplicatively in common disease

BACKGROUND

The joint contribution of genetic and environmental exposures to noncommunicable diseases is not well characterized.

OBJECTIVES

We modeled the cumulative effects of common risk alleles and their prevalence variations with classical risk factors.

METHODS

We analyzed mathematically and statistically numbers and effect sizes of established risk alleles for coronary artery disease (CAD) and other conditions.

RESULTS

In UK Biobank, risk alleles counts in the lowest (175.4) and highest decile (205.7) of the distribution differed by only 16.9%, which nevertheless increased CAD prevalence 3.4-fold (p < 0.01). Irrespective of the affected gene, a single risk allele multiplied the effects of all others carried by a person, resulting in a 2.9-fold stronger effect size in the top versus the bottom decile (p < 0.01) and an exponential increase in risk (R > 0.94). Classical risk factors shifted effect sizes to the steep upslope of the logarithmic function linking risk allele numbers with CAD prevalence. Similar phenomena were observed in the Estonian Biobank and for risk alleles affecting diabetes mellitus, breast and prostate cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Alleles predisposing to common diseases can be carried safely in large numbers, but few additional ones lead to sharp risk increments. Here, we describe exponential functions by which risk alleles combine interchangeably but multiplicatively with each other and with modifiable risk factors to affect prevalence. Our data suggest that the biological systems underlying these diseases are modulated by hundreds of genes but become only fragile when a narrow window of total risk, irrespective of its genetic or environmental origins, has been passed.

Estimation and implications of the genetic architecture of fasting and non-fasting blood glucose

The genetic regulation of post-prandial glucose levels is poorly understood. Here, we characterise the genetic architecture of blood glucose variably measured within 0 and 24 h of fasting in 368,000 European ancestry participants of the UK Biobank. We found a near-linear increase in the heritability of non-fasting glucose levels over time, which plateaus to its fasting state value after 5 h post meal (h² = 11%; standard error: 1%). The genetic correlation between different fasting times is > 0.77, suggesting that the genetic control of glucose is largely constant across fasting durations. Accounting for heritability differences between fasting times leads to a ~16% improvement in the discovery of genetic variants associated with glucose. Newly detected variants improve the prediction of fasting glucose and type 2 diabetes in independent samples. Finally, we meta-analysed summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of random and fasting glucose (N = 518,615) and identified 156 independent SNPs explaining 3% of fasting glucose variance. Altogether, our study demonstrates the utility of random glucose measures to improve the discovery of genetic variants associated with glucose homeostasis, even in fasting conditions.

mBAT-combo: A more powerful test to detect gene-trait associations from GWAS data

Gene-based association tests aggregate multiple SNP-trait associations into sets defined by gene boundaries and are widely used in post-GWAS analysis. A common approach for gene-based tests is to combine SNPs associations by computing the sum of χ² statistics. However, this strategy ignores the directions of SNP effects, which could result in a loss of power for SNPs with masking effects, e.g., when the product of two SNP effects and the linkage disequilibrium (LD) correlation is negative. Here, we introduce "mBAT-combo," a set-based test that is better powered than other methods to detect multi-SNP associations in the context of masking effects. We validate the method through simulations and applications to real data. We find that of 35 blood and urine biomarker traits in the UK Biobank, 34 traits show evidence for masking effects in a total of 4,273 gene-trait pairs, indicating that masking effects is common in complex traits. We further validate the improved power of our method in height, body mass index, and schizophrenia with different GWAS sample sizes and show that on average 95.7% of the genes detected only by mBAT-combo with smaller sample sizes can be identified by the single-SNP approach with a 1.7-fold increase in sample sizes. Eleven genes significant only in mBAT-combo for schizophrenia are confirmed by functionally informed fine-mapping or Mendelian randomization integrating gene expression data. The framework of mBAT-combo can be applied to any set of SNPs to refine trait-association signals hidden in genomic regions with complex LD structures.

Local CpG density affects the trajectory and variance of age-associated DNA methylation changes

BACKGROUND

DNA methylation is an epigenetic mark associated with the repression of gene promoters. Its pattern in the genome is disrupted with age and these changes can be used to statistically predict age with epigenetic clocks. Altered rates of aging inferred from these clocks are observed in human disease. However, the molecular mechanisms underpinning age-associated DNA methylation changes remain unknown. Local DNA sequence can program steady-state DNA methylation levels, but how it influences age-associated methylation changes is unknown.

RESULTS

We analyze longitudinal human DNA methylation trajectories at 345,895 CpGs from 600 individuals aged between 67 and 80 to understand the factors responsible for age-associated epigenetic changes at individual CpGs. We show that changes in methylation with age occur at 182,760 loci largely independently of variation in cell type proportions. These changes are especially apparent at 8322 low CpG density loci. Using SNP data from the same individuals, we demonstrate that methylation trajectories are affected by local sequence polymorphisms at 1487 low CpG density loci. More generally, we find that low CpG density regions are particularly prone to change and do so variably between individuals in people aged over 65. This differs from the behavior of these regions in younger individuals where they predominantly lose methylation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results, which we reproduce in two independent groups of individuals, demonstrate that local DNA sequence influences age-associated DNA methylation changes in humans in vivo. We suggest that this occurs because interactions between CpGs reinforce maintenance of methylation patterns in CpG dense regions.

A saturated map of common genetic variants associated with human height

Common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are predicted to collectively explain 40-50% of phenotypic variation in human height, but identifying the specific variants and associated regions requires huge sample sizes1. Here, using data from a genome-wide association study of 5.4 million individuals of diverse ancestries, we show that 12,111 independent SNPs that are significantly associated with height account for nearly all of the common SNP-based heritability. These SNPs are clustered within 7,209 non-overlapping genomic segments with a mean size of around 90 kb, covering about 21% of the genome. The density of independent associations varies across the genome and the regions of increased density are enriched for biologically relevant genes. In out-of-sample estimation and prediction, the 12,111 SNPs (or all SNPs in the HapMap 3 panel2) account for 40% (45%) of phenotypic variance in populations of European ancestry but only around 10-20% (14-24%) in populations of other ancestries. Effect sizes, associated regions and gene prioritization are similar across ancestries, indicating that reduced prediction accuracy is likely to be explained by linkage disequilibrium and differences in allele frequency within associated regions. Finally, we show that the relevant biological pathways are detectable with smaller sample sizes than are needed to implicate causal genes and variants. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive map of specific genomic regions that contain the vast majority of common height-associated variants. Although this map is saturated for populations of European ancestry, further research is needed to achieve equivalent saturation in other ancestries.

Parsimonious model for mass-univariate vertexwise analysis

Purpose: Covariance between gray-matter measurements can reflect structural or functional brain networks though it has also been shown to be influenced by confounding factors (e.g., age, head size, and scanner), which could lead to lower mapping precision (increased size of associated clusters) and create distal false positives associations in mass-univariate vertexwise analyses. Approach: We evaluated this concern by performing state-of-the-art mass-univariate analyses (general linear model, GLM) on traits simulated from real vertex-wise gray matter data (including cortical and subcortical thickness and surface area). We contrasted the results with those from linear mixed models (LMMs), which have been shown to overcome similar issues in omics association studies. Results: We showed that when performed on a large sample ( N = 8662 , UK Biobank), GLMs yielded greatly inflated false positive rate (cluster false discovery rate > 0.6 ). We showed that LMMs resulted in more parsimonious results: smaller clusters and reduced false positive rate but at a cost of increased computation. Next, we performed mass-univariate association analyses on five real UKB traits (age, sex, BMI, fluid intelligence, and smoking status) and LMM yielded fewer and more localized associations. We identified 19 significant clusters displaying small associations with age, sex, and BMI, which suggest a complex architecture of at least dozens of associated areas with those phenotypes. Conclusions: The published literature could contain a large proportion of redundant (possibly confounded) associations that are largely prevented using LMMs. The parsimony of LMMs results from controlling for the joint effect of all vertices, which prevents local and distal redundant associations from reaching significance.

Mapping genomic loci implicates genes and synaptic biology in schizophrenia

Schizophrenia has a heritability of 60-80%1, much of which is attributable to common risk alleles. Here, in a two-stage genome-wide association study of up to 76,755 individuals with schizophrenia and 243,649 control individuals, we report common variant associations at 287 distinct genomic loci. Associations were concentrated in genes that are expressed in excitatory and inhibitory neurons of the central nervous system, but not in other tissues or cell types. Using fine-mapping and functional genomic data, we identify 120 genes (106 protein-coding) that are likely to underpin associations at some of these loci, including 16 genes with credible causal non-synonymous or untranslated region variation. We also implicate fundamental processes related to neuronal function, including synaptic organization, differentiation and transmission. Fine-mapped candidates were enriched for genes associated with rare disruptive coding variants in people with schizophrenia, including the glutamate receptor subunit GRIN2A and transcription factor SP4, and were also enriched for genes implicated by such variants in neurodevelopmental disorders. We identify biological processes relevant to schizophrenia pathophysiology; show convergence of common and rare variant associations in schizophrenia and neurodevelopmental disorders; and provide a resource of prioritized genes and variants to advance mechanistic studies.