Longitudinal relationships between BMI and hs-CRP among people with schizophrenia

In people with schizophrenia (PwS), inflammation and metabolic issues significantly increase morbidity and mortality. However, our ability to understand inflammatory-metabolic mechanisms in this population has been limited to cross-sectional studies. This study involved 169 PwS and 156 non-psychiatric comparisons (NCs), aged 25-65, observed between 2012 and 2022 with 0 to 5 follow-ups post-baseline. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), a marker of inflammation, was measured via a particle-enhanced immuno-turbidimetric assay. Body mass index (BMI) was used as a proxy for metabolic function. The measurement intervals for hs-CRP and BMI ranged between 6 and 48 months. Linear mixed models (LMM) results revealed that at all time points, PwS has a higher hs-CRP (t (316) = 4.73, p < .001) and BMI (t (315) = 4.13, p < .001) than NCs; however, for BMI, this difference decreased over time (t (524) = -5.15, p < .001). To study interrelationships between hs-CRP and BMI, continuous time structural equational modeling (CTSEM) was used, accounting for uneven measurement intervals. CTSEM results showed that both hs-CRP predicted future BMI (Est. = 12.91, 95 % CI [7.70; 17.88]) and BMI predicted future hs-CRP (Est. = 1.54, 95 % CI [1.00; 2.04]), indicating a bidirectional relationship between inflammation and metabolic function. Notably, the influence of hs-CRP on future BMI was more robust than the other lagged relationship (p = .015), especially in PwS (Est. = 2.43, 95 % CI [0.39; 0.97]). Our study highlights the important role of inflammation in metabolic function and offers insights into potential interventions targeting inflammation in PwS.

Non-invasive ventral cervical magnetoneurography as a proxy of in vivo lipopolysaccharide-induced inflammation

Maintenance of autonomic homeostasis is continuously calibrated by sensory fibers of the vagus nerve and sympathetic chain that convey compound action potentials (CAPs) to the central nervous system. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) intravenous challenge reliably elicits a robust inflammatory response that can resemble systemic inflammation and acute endotoxemia. Here, we administered LPS intravenously in nine healthy subjects while recording ventral cervical magnetoneurography (vcMNG)-derived CAPs at the rostral Right Nodose Ganglion (RNG) and the caudal Right Carotid Artery (RCA) with optically pumped magnetometers (OPM). We observed vcMNG RNG and RCA neural firing rates that tracked changes in TNF-α levels in the systemic circulation. Further, endotype subgroups based on high and low IL-6 responders segregate RNG CAP frequency (at 30-120 min) and based on high and low IL-10 response discriminate RCA CAP frequency (at 0-30 min). These vcMNG tools may enhance understanding and management of the neuroimmune axis that can guide personalized treatment based on an individual's distinct endophenotype.

Testing the causal impact of amyloidosis on total Tau using a genetically informative sample of adult male twins

INTRODUCTION

The amyloid cascade hypothesis predicts that amyloid-beta (Aβ) aggregation drives tau tangle accumulation. We tested competing causal and non-causal hypotheses regarding the direction of causation between Aβ40 and Aβ42 and total Tau (t-Tau) plasma biomarkers.

METHODS

Plasma Aβ40, Aβ42, t-Tau, and neurofilament light chain (NFL) were measured in 1,035 men (mean = 67.0 years) using Simoa immunoassays. Genetically informative twin modeling tested the direction of causation between Aβs and t-Tau.

RESULTS

No clear evidence that Aβ40 or Aβ42 directly causes changes in t-Tau was observed; the alternative causal hypotheses also fit the data well. In contrast, exploratory analyses suggested a causal impact of the Aβ biomarkers on NFL. Separately, reciprocal causation was observed between t-Tau and NFL.

DISCUSSION

Plasma Aβ40 or Aβ42 do not appear to have a direct causal impact on t-Tau. In contrast, Aβ aggregation may causally impact NFL in cognitively unimpaired men in their late 60s.

A New Paradigm for High-dimensional Data: Distance-Based Semiparametric Feature Aggregation Framework via Between-Subject Attributes

This article proposes a distance-based framework incentivized by the paradigm shift towards feature aggregation for high-dimensional data, which does not rely on the sparse-feature assumption or the permutation-based inference. Focusing on distance-based outcomes that preserve information without truncating any features, a class of semiparametric regression has been developed, which encapsulates multiple sources of high-dimensional variables using pairwise outcomes of between-subject attributes. Further, we propose a strategy to address the interlocking correlations among pairs via the U-statistics-based estimating equations (UGEE), which correspond to their unique efficient influence function (EIF). Hence, the resulting semiparametric estimators are robust to distributional misspecification while enjoying root-n consistency and asymptotic optimality to facilitate inference. In essence, the proposed approach not only circumvents information loss due to feature selection but also improves the model's interpretability and computational feasibility. Simulation studies and applications to the human microbiome and wearables data are provided, where the feature dimensions are tens of thousands.

Executive functioning trajectories and their prospective association with inflammatory biomarkers in schizophrenia and non-psychiatric comparison participants

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Cognitive change in people with schizophrenia (PwS) is challenging to assess, but important to understand. Previous studies with limited age ranges and follow-up were subject to practice effects. Controlling for practice effects in a well-established cohort, we examined executive functioning trajectories and their association with inflammatory biomarkers, hypothesizing that PwS will have worsening executive functioning over time compared to non-psychiatric comparison participants (NCs), predicted by higher baseline inflammation with a stronger relationship in PwS than NCs.

STUDY DESIGN

Executive functioning was assessed in 350 participants (n = 186 PwS, 164 NCs) at 12-16-month intervals (0 to 7 follow-up visits). Inflammatory biomarkers at baseline included high sensitivity C-Reactive Protein (hs-CRP), Interferon-gamma, Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF)-alpha, and Interleukin(IL)-6, -8, and - 10. Executive functioning trajectories across diagnostic groups were estimated using a linear mixed-effects model controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and education level, with additional models to assess prediction by baseline inflammation.

STUDY RESULTS

Over 4.4 years average follow-up, improvements in executive functioning were attenuated in PwS and older participants. Controlling for practice effects negated improvements, revealing declines among highly educated participants regardless of diagnosis. Higher baseline hs-CRP predicted worse executive functioning only among NCs, while TNF-alpha was predictive of change in all participants only after controlling for practice effects. Only the main effect of hs-CRP on executive function was significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons. None of the other inflammatory biomarkers predicted executive functioning or trajectories of performance among study participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Systemic inflammation as reflected by baseline inflammatory biomarker levels did not predict longitudinal declines in executive functioning. Additional studies examining the temporal dynamics of inflammation and cognition in PwS will help further clarify their relationship and associated mechanisms.

The heritability of blood-based biomarkers related to risk of Alzheimer's disease in a population-based sample of early old-age men

INTRODUCTION

Despite their increased application, the heritability of Alzheimer's disease (AD)-related blood-based biomarkers remains unexplored.

METHODS

Plasma amyloid beta 40 (Aβ40), Aβ42, the Aβ42/40 ratio, total tau (t-tau), and neurofilament light (NfL) data came from 1035 men 60 to 73 years of age (μ = 67.0, SD = 2.6). Twin models were used to calculate heritability and the genetic and environmental correlations between them.

RESULTS

Additive genetics explained 44% to 52% of Aβ42, Aβ40, t-tau, and NfL. The Aβ42/40 ratio was not heritable. Aβ40 and Aβ42 were genetically near identical (rg  = 0.94). Both Aβ40 and Aβ42 were genetically correlated with NfL (rg  = 0.35 to 0.38), but genetically unrelated to t-tau.

DISCUSSION

Except for Aβ42/40, plasma biomarkers are heritable. Aβ40 and Aβ42 share mostly the same genetic influences, whereas genetic influences on plasma t-tau and NfL are largely unique in early old-age men. The absence of genetic associations between the Aβs and t-tau is not consistent with the amyloid cascade hypothesis.

Urinary Glyphosate, 2,4-D and DEET Biomarkers in Relation to Neurobehavioral Performance in Ecuadorian Adolescents in the ESPINA Cohort

BACKGROUND

Herbicides are the most used class of pesticides worldwide, and insect repellents are widely used globally. Yet, there is a dearth of studies characterizing the associations between these chemical groups and human neurobehavior. Experimental studies suggest that glyphosate and 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) herbicides can affect neurobehavior and the cholinergic and glutamatergic pathways in the brain. We aim to assess whether herbicides and insect repellents are associated with neurobehavioral performance in adolescents.

METHODS

We assessed 519 participants (11-17 years of age) living in agricultural communities in Ecuador. We quantified urinary concentrations of glyphosate, 2,4-D, and two N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET) insect repellent metabolites [3-(diethylcarbamoyl)benzoic acid (DCBA) and 3-(ethylcarbamoyl)benzoic acid (ECBA)] using isotope-dilution mass spectrometry. We assessed neurobehavioral performance using 9 subtests across 5 domains (attention/inhibitory control, memory/learning, language, visuospatial processing, and social perception). We characterized the associations using generalized estimating equations and multiple imputation for metabolites below detection limits. Models were adjusted for demographic and anthropometric characteristics, urinary creatinine, and sexual maturation. Mediation by salivary cortisol, dehydroepiandrosterone, 17 β -estradiol , and testosterone was assessed using structural equation modeling.

RESULTS

The mean of each neurobehavioral domain score was between 7.0 and 8.7 [standard deviation (SD) range: 2.0-2.3]. Glyphosate was detected in 98.3% of participants, 2,4-D in 66.2%, DCBA in 63.3%, and ECBA in 33.4%. 2,4-D was negatively associated with all neurobehavioral domains, but statistically significant associations were observed with attention/inhibition [score difference per 50% higher metabolite concentration ( β ) = - 0.19 95% confidence interval (CI): - 0.31 , - 0.07 ], language [β = - 0.12 (95% CI: - 0.23 , - 0.01 )], and memory/learning [β = - 0.11 (95% CI: - 0.22 , 0.01)]. Glyphosate had a statistically significant negative association only with social perception [β = - 0.08 (95% CI: - 0.14 , - 0.01 )]. DEET metabolites were not associated with neurobehavioral performance. Mediation by gender and adrenal hormones was not observed.

CONCLUSION

This study describes worse neurobehavioral performance associated with herbicide exposures in adolescents, particularly with 2,4-D. Replication of these findings among other pediatric and adult populations is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11383.

Survey response over 15 years of follow-up in the Millennium Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Patterns of survey response and the characteristics associated with response over time in longitudinal studies are important to discern for the development of tailored retention efforts aimed at minimizing response bias. The Millennium Cohort Study, the largest and longest running cohort study of military personnel and veterans, is designed to examine the long-term health effects of military service and experiences and thus relies on continued participant survey responses over time. Here, we describe the response rates for follow-up survey data collected over 15 years and identify characteristics associated with follow-up survey response and mode of response (paper vs. web).

METHOD

Patterns of follow-up survey response and response mode (web, paper, none) were examined among eligible participants (n=198,833), who were initially recruited in four panels from 2001 to 2013 in the Millennium Cohort Study, for a follow-up period of 3-15 years (2004-2016). Military and sociodemographic factors (i.e., enrollment panel, sex, birth year, race and ethnicity, educational attainment, marital status, service component, service branch, pay grade, military occupation, length of service, and time deployed), life experiences and health-related factors (i.e., military deployment/combat experience, life stressors, mental health, physical health, and unhealthy behaviors) were used to examine follow-up response and survey mode over time in multivariable generalized estimating equation models.

RESULTS

Overall, an average response rate of 60% was observed across all follow-up waves. Factors associated with follow-up survey response over time included increased educational attainment, married status, female sex, older age, military deployment (regardless of combat experience), and higher number of life stressors, mental health issues, and physical health diagnoses.

CONCLUSION

Despite the challenges associated with collecting multiple waves of follow-up survey data from members of the U.S. military during and after service, the Millennium Cohort Study has maintained a relatively robust response rate over time. The incorporation of tailored messages and outreach to those groups least likely to respond over time may improve retention and thereby increase the representativeness and generalizability of collected survey data.

Common antibiotics, azithromycin and amoxicillin, affect gut metagenomics within a household

BACKGROUND

The microbiome of the human gut serves a role in a number of physiological processes, but can be altered through effects of age, diet, and disturbances such as antibiotics. Several studies have demonstrated that commonly used antibiotics can have sustained impacts on the diversity and the composition of the gut microbiome. The impact of the two most overused antibiotics, azithromycin, and amoxicillin, in the human microbiome has not been thoroughly described. In this study, we recruited a group of individuals and unrelated controls to decipher the effects of the commonly used antibiotics amoxicillin and azithromycin on their gut microbiomes.

RESULTS

We characterized the gut microbiomes by metagenomic sequencing followed by characterization of the resulting microbial communities. We found that there were clear and sustained effects of the antibiotics on the gut microbial community with significant alterations in the representations of Bifidobacterium species in response to azithromycin (macrolide antibiotic). These results were supported by significant increases identified in putative antibiotic resistance genes associated with macrolide resistance. Importantly, we did not identify these trends in the unrelated control individuals. There were no significant changes observed in other members of the microbial community.

CONCLUSIONS

As we continue to focus on the role that the gut microbiome plays and how disturbances induced by antibiotics might affect our overall health, elucidating members of the community most affected by their use is of critical importance to understanding the impacts of common antibiotics on those who take them. Clinical Trial Registration Number NCT05169255. This trial was retrospectively registered on 23-12-2021.

Misinterpreting cognitive change over multiple timepoints: When practice effects meet age-related decline

OBJECTIVE

Practice effects (PE) on cognitive testing have been shown to delay detection of impairment and impede our ability to assess change. When decline over time is expected, as with older adults or progressive diseases, failure to adequately address PEs may lead to inaccurate conclusions because PEs artificially boost scores while pathology- or age-related decline reduces scores. Unlike most methods, a participant-replacement approach can separate pathology- or age-related decline from PEs; however, this approach has only been used across two timepoints. More than two timepoints make it possible to determine if PEs level out after the first follow-up, but it is analytically challenging because individuals may not be assessed at every timepoint.

METHOD

We examined 1,190 older adults who were cognitively unimpaired (n = 809) or had mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 381). Participants completed six neuropsychological measures at three timepoints (baseline, 12-month, 24-month). We implemented a participant-replacement method using generalized estimating equations in comparisons of matched returnees and replacements to calculate PEs.

RESULTS

Without accounting for PEs, cognitive function appeared to improve or stay the same. However, with the participant-replacement method, we observed significant PEs within both groups at all timepoints. PEs did not uniformly decrease across time; some-specifically on episodic memory measures-continued to increase beyond the first follow-up.

CONCLUSION

A replacement method of PE adjustment revealed significant PEs across two follow-ups. As expected in these older adults, accounting for PEs revealed cognitive decline. This, in turn, means earlier detection of cognitive deficits, including progression to MCI, and more accurate characterization of longitudinal change. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

On testing proportional odds assumptions for proportional odds models

Proportional odds models are commonly used to model ordinal responses, but the proportional odds assumption may not hold in practice, leading to biased inference. Tests such as score, Wald and likelihood ratio (LR) have been proposed to evaluate the proportional odds assumption based on models without the assumption. Brant has proposed an independent binary model-based Wald-type test, and Wolfe and Gould have extended the idea to propose an LR-type test. This paper provides a brief review of the Brant and Wolfe-Gould tests for evaluating the proportional odds assumption and evaluates their performance through simulation studies and a real data example. Sample programs are provided in SAS, SPSS and Stata to facilitate the implementation of these tests using standard statistical software packages. This study highlights the importance of evaluating the proportional odds assumption when using proportional odds models for ordinal responses. The sample programs provided in this paper make it easy for researchers to apply these tests in their own analyses using standard statistical software packages.

Alcohol use and cognitive aging in middle-aged men: The Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging

OBJECTIVE

To determine associations of alcohol use with cognitive aging among middle-aged men.

METHOD

1,608 male twins (mean 57 years at baseline) participated in up to three visits over 12 years, from 2003-2007 to 2016-2019. Participants were classified into six groups based on current and past self-reported alcohol use: lifetime abstainers, former drinkers, very light (1-4 drinks in past 14 days), light (5-14 drinks), moderate (15-28 drinks), and at-risk drinkers (>28 drinks in past 14 days). Linear mixed-effects regressions modeled cognitive trajectories by alcohol group, with time-based models evaluating rate of decline as a function of baseline alcohol use, and age-based models evaluating age-related differences in performance by current alcohol use. Analyses used standardized cognitive domain factor scores and adjusted for sociodemographic and health-related factors.

RESULTS

Performance decreased over time in all domains. Relative to very light drinkers, former drinkers showed worse verbal fluency performance, by -0.21 SD (95% CI -0.35, -0.07), and at-risk drinkers showed faster working memory decline, by 0.14 SD (95% CI 0.02, -0.20) per decade. There was no evidence of protective associations of light/moderate drinking on rate of decline. In age-based models, light drinkers displayed better memory performance at advanced ages than very light drinkers (+0.14 SD; 95% CI 0.02, 0.20 per 10-years older age); likely attributable to residual confounding or reverse association.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol consumption showed minimal associations with cognitive aging among middle-aged men. Stronger associations of alcohol with cognitive aging may become apparent at older ages, when cognitive abilities decline more rapidly.

Fecal virome transplantation is sufficient to alter fecal microbiota and drive lean and obese body phenotypes in mice

Background

The gastrointestinal microbiome plays a significant role in numerous host processes and has an especially large impact on modulating the host metabolism. Prior studies have shown that when mice receive fecal transplants from obese donors that were fed high-fat diets (HFD) (even when recipient mice are fed normal diets after transplantation), they develop obese phenotypes. These studies demonstrate the prominent role that the gut microbiota play in determining lean and obese phenotypes. While much of the credit has been given to gut bacteria, studies have not measured the impact of gut viruses on these phenotypes. To address this shortcoming, we gavaged mice with viromes isolated from donors fed HFD or normal chow. By characterizing the mice’s gut bacterial biota and weight-gain phenotypes over time, we demonstrate that viruses can shape the gut bacterial community and affect weight gain or loss.

Results

We gavaged mice longitudinally over 4 weeks while measuring their body weights and collecting fecal samples for 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing. We evaluated mice that were fed normal chow or high-fat diets, and gavaged each group with either chow-derived fecal viromes, HFD-derived fecal viromes, or phosphate buffered saline controls. We found a significant effect of gavage type, where mice fed chow but gavaged with HFD-derived viromes gained significantly more weight than their counterparts receiving chow-derived viromes. The converse was also true: mice fed HFD but gavaged with chow-derived viromes gained significantly less weight than their counterparts receiving HFD-derived viromes. These results were replicated in two separate experiments and the phenotypic changes were accompanied by significant and identifiable differences in the fecal bacterial biota. Notably, there were differences in Lachnospirales and Clostridia in mice fed chow but gavaged with HFD-derived fecal viromes, and in Peptostreptococcales, Oscillospirales, and Lachnospirales in mice fed HFD but gavaged with chow-derived fecal viromes. Due to methodological limitations, we were unable to identify specific bacterial species or strains that were responsible for respective phenotypic changes.

Conclusions

This study confirms that virome-mediated perturbations can alter the fecal microbiome in an in vivo model and indicates that such perturbations are sufficient to drive lean and obese phenotypes in mice.

Exploring the Effect of Adding an Interactive Lecture to a Standardized Patient Curriculum on the Attitudes of Third-Year Medical Students About Patients With Obesity: A Quasi-Experimental Study

OBJECTIVES

Anti-obesity bias is pervasive among medical professionals, students, and trainees. Stigmatization of patients leads to suboptimal care and clinical outcomes. Educational strategies in medical training are needed to reverse these attitudes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of an innovative didactic intervention and a standardized patient (SP) exercise on attitudes towards patients with obesity among medical students.

METHODS

In 2016, a quasi-experimental study design was used at a US medical school. The class was divided into 2 groups according to a pre-determined protocol based on their clinical schedule, one assessed after exposure to a SP group and the other after exposure to the SP and an interactive lecture (IL + SP group) with real patients. The Attitudes about Treating Patients with Obesity and The Perceived Causes of Obesity questionnaires measured changes in several domains. A generalized estimating equations model was used to estimate the effect of the interventions both within and between groups.

RESULTS

Both groups showed improvements in negative and positive attitudes, although the reduction in scores for the negative attitude domain did not reach statistical significance in the IL + SP group (for the SP group, P = .01 and  < .001, respectively; for the IL + SP group, P = .15 and .01, respectively). For perceived causes of obesity, there were no statistically significant changes for pre-post survey measures within each group, except for the physiologic causes domain in the SP group (P = .03). The addition of an IL to a SP curriculum did not result in any changes for any domain in between-group analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Although adding a novel intervention utilizing real patients to a SP curriculum failed to show an additional educational benefit, our study showed that it is possible to influence attitudes of medical students regarding patients with obesity.

Associations Between Ambient Air Pollution and Cognitive Abilities from Midlife to Early Old Age: Modification by APOE Genotype

BACKGROUND

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measures of ambient air pollution are associated with accelerated age-related cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD).

OBJECTIVE

We examined associations between air pollution, four cognitive factors, and the moderating role of apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype in the understudied period of midlife.

METHODS

Participants were ∼1,100 men in the Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging. Baseline cognitive assessments were from 2003 to 2007. Measures included past (1993-1999) and recent (3 years prior to baseline assessment) PM2.5 and NO2 exposure, in-person assessment of episodic memory, executive function, verbal fluency, and processing speed, and APOE genotype. Average baseline age was 56 years with a 12-year follow-up. Analyses adjusted for health and lifestyle covariates.

RESULTS

Performance in all cognitive domains declined from age 56 to 68. Higher PM2.5 exposures were associated with worse general verbal fluency. We found significant exposure-by-APOE genotype interactions for specific cognitive domains: PM2.5 with executive function and NO2 with episodic memory. Higher PM2.5 exposure was related to worse executive function in APOE ɛ4 carriers, but not in non-carriers. There were no associations with processing speed.

CONCLUSION

These results indicate negative effects of ambient air pollution exposure on fluency alongside intriguing differential modifications of cognitive performance by APOE genotype. APOE ɛ4 carriers appeared more sensitive to environmental differences. The process by which air pollution and its interaction with genetic risk for ADRD affects risk for later life cognitive decline or progression to dementia may begin in midlife.

Fecal virome transplantation is sufficient to alter fecal microbiota and drive lean and obese body phenotypes in mice

The gastrointestinal microbiome plays a significant role in modulating numerous host processes, including metabolism. Prior studies show that when mice receive fecal transplants from obese donors on high-fat diets (HFD) (even when recipient mice are fed normal diets after transplantation), they develop obese phenotypes, demonstrating the prominent role that gut microbiota play in determining lean and obese phenotypes. While much of the credit has been given to gut bacteria, the impact of gut viruses on these phenotypes is understudied. To address this shortcoming, we gavaged mice with viromes isolated from donors fed HFD or normal chow over a 4-week study. By characterizing the gut bacterial biota via 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing and measuring mouse weights over time, we demonstrate that transplanted viruses affect the gut bacterial community, as well as weight gain/loss. Notably, mice fed chow but gavaged with HFD-derived viromes gained more weight than their counterparts receiving chow-derived viromes. The converse was also true: mice fed HFD but gavaged with chow-derived viromes gained less weight than their counterparts receiving HFD-derived viromes. Results were replicated in two independent experiments and phenotypic changes were accompanied by significant and identifiable differences in the fecal bacterial biota. Due to methodological limitations, we were unable to identify the specific bacterial strains responsible for respective phenotypic changes. This study confirms that virome-mediated perturbations can alter the fecal microbiome in vivo and indicates that such perturbations are sufficient to drive lean and obese phenotypes in mice.

On modelling relative risks for longitudinal binomial responses: implications from two dueling paradigms

Although logistic regression is the most popular for modelling regression relationships with binary responses, many find relative risk (RR), or risk ratio, easier to interpret and prefer to use this measure of risk in regression analysis. Indeed, since Zou published his modified Poisson regression approach for modelling RR for cross-sectional data, his paper has been cited over 7 000 times, demonstrating the popularity of this alternative measure of risk in regression analysis involving binary responses. As longitudinal studies have become increasingly popular in clinical trials and observational studies, it is imperative to extend Zou's approach for longitudinal data. The two most popular approaches for longitudinal data analysis are the generalised linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) and generalised estimating equations (GEE). However, the parametric GLMM cannot be used for the extension within the current context, because Zou's approach treats the binary response as a Poisson variable, which is at odds with the Bernoulli distribution for the binary response. On the other hand, as it imposes no mathematical model on data distributions, the semiparametric GEE is coherent with Zou's modified Poisson regression. In this paper, we develop a GEE-based longitudinal model for binary responses to provide inference about RR.

Head-to-head comparison between MEFIB, MAST, and FAST for detecting stage 2 fibrosis or higher among patients with NAFLD

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and significant fibrosis (fibrosis stage ≥2) are candidates for pharmacological trials. The aim of this study was to perform a head-to-head comparison of the diagnostic test characteristics of three non-invasive stiffness-based models including MEFIB (magnetic resonance elastography [MRE] plus FIB-4), MAST (magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]-aspartate aminotransferase [AST]), and FAST (FibroScan-AST) for detecting significant fibrosis.

METHODS

This prospective study included 563 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD undergoing contemporaneous MRE, MRI proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) and FibroScan from two prospective cohorts derived from Southern California and Japan. Diagnostic performances of models were evaluated by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

The mean age of the cohort was 56.5 years (51% were women). Significant fibrosis was observed in 51.2%. To detect significant fibrosis, MEFIB outperformed both MAST and FAST (both p <0.001); AUCs for MEFIB, MAST, and FAST were 0.901 (95% CI 0.875-0.928), 0.770 (95% CI 0.730-0.810), and 0.725 (95% CI 0.683-0.767), respectively. Using rule-in criteria, the positive predictive value of MEFIB (95.3%) was significantly higher than that of FAST (83.5%, p = 0.001) and numerically but not statistically greater than that of MAST (90.0%, p = 0.056). Notably, MEFIB's rule-in criteria covered more of the study population than MAST (34.1% vs. 26.6%; p = 0.006). Using rule-out criteria, the negative predictive value of MEFIB (90.1%) was significantly higher than that of either MAST (69.6%) or FAST (71.8%) (both p <0.001). Furthermore, to diagnose "at risk" non-alcoholic steatohepatitis defined as NAFLD activity score ≥4 and fibrosis stage ≥2, MEFIB outperformed both MAST and FAST (both p <0.05); AUCs for MEFIB, MAST, and FAST were 0.768 (95% CI 0.728-0.808), 0.719 (95% CI 0.671-0.766), and 0.687 (95% CI 0.640-0.733), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

MEFIB was better than MAST and FAST for detection of significant fibrosis as well as "at risk" NASH. All three models provide utility for the risk stratification of NAFLD.

LAY SUMMARY

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects over 25% of the general population worldwide and is one of the main causes of chronic liver disease. Because so many individuals have NAFLD, it is not practical to perform liver biopsies to identify those with more severe disease who may require pharmacological interventions. Therefore, accurate non-invasive tests are crucial. Herein, we compared three such tests and found that a test called MEFIB was the best at detecting patients who might require treatment.

Post-hoc power analysis: a conceptually valid approach for power based on observed study data

Power analysis is a key component of planning prospective studies such as clinical trials. However, some journals in biomedical and psychosocial sciences request power analysis for data already collected and analysed before accepting manuscripts for publication. Many have raised concerns about the conceptual basis for such post-hoc power analyses. More recently, Zhang et al showed by using simulation studies that such power analyses do not indicate true power for detecting statistical significance since post-hoc power estimates vary in the range of practical interests and can be very different from the true power. On the other hand, journals’ request for information about the reliability of statistical findings in a manuscript due to small sample sizes is justified since the sample size plays an important role in the reproducibility of statistical findings. The problem is the wording of the journals' request, as the current power analysis paradigm is not designed to address journals’ concerns about the reliability of the statistical findings. In this paper, we propose an alternate formulation of power analysis to provide a conceptually valid approach to the journals’ wrongly worded but practically significant concern.

Associations between depression and cardiometabolic health: A 27-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Clarifying the relationship between depression symptoms and cardiometabolic and related health could clarify risk factors and treatment targets. The objective of this study was to assess whether depression symptoms in midlife are associated with the subsequent onset of cardiometabolic health problems.

METHODS

The study sample comprised 787 male twin veterans with polygenic risk score data who participated in the Harvard Twin Study of Substance Abuse ('baseline') and the longitudinal Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging ('follow-up'). Depression symptoms were assessed at baseline [mean age 41.42 years (s.d. = 2.34)] using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, Version III, Revised. The onset of eight cardiometabolic conditions (atrial fibrillation, diabetes, erectile dysfunction, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, myocardial infarction, sleep apnea, and stroke) was assessed via self-reported doctor diagnosis at follow-up [mean age 67.59 years (s.d. = 2.41)].

RESULTS

Total depression symptoms were longitudinally associated with incident diabetes (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.07-1.57), erectile dysfunction (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10-1.59), hypercholesterolemia (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.04-1.53), and sleep apnea (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.13-1.74) over 27 years after controlling for age, alcohol consumption, smoking, body mass index, C-reactive protein, and polygenic risk for specific health conditions. In sensitivity analyses that excluded somatic depression symptoms, only the association with sleep apnea remained significant (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09-1.60).

CONCLUSIONS

A history of depression symptoms by early midlife is associated with an elevated risk for subsequent development of several self-reported health conditions. When isolated, non-somatic depression symptoms are associated with incident self-reported sleep apnea. Depression symptom history may be a predictor or marker of cardiometabolic risk over decades.