A Multilevel Bayesian Approach to Improve Effect Size Estimation in Regression Modeling of Metabolomics Data Utilizing Imputation with Uncertainty

To ensure scientific reproducibility of metabolomics data, alternative statistical methods are needed. A paradigm shift away from the p-value toward an embracement of uncertainty and interval estimation of a metabolite's true effect size may lead to improved study design and greater reproducibility. Multilevel Bayesian models are one approach that offer the added opportunity of incorporating imputed value uncertainty when missing data are present. We designed simulations of metabolomics data to compare multilevel Bayesian models to standard logistic regression with corrections for multiple hypothesis testing. Our simulations altered the sample size and the fraction of significant metabolites truly different between two outcome groups. We then introduced missingness to further assess model performance. Across simulations, the multilevel Bayesian approach more accurately estimated the effect size of metabolites that were significantly different between groups. Bayesian models also had greater power and mitigated the false discovery rate. In the presence of increased missing data, Bayesian models were able to accurately impute the true concentration and incorporating the uncertainty of these estimates improved overall prediction. In summary, our simulations demonstrate that a multilevel Bayesian approach accurately quantifies the estimated effect size of metabolite predictors in regression modeling, particularly in the presence of missing data.

Reporting Bayesian Results

Because of the different philosophy of Bayesian statistics, where parameters are random variables and data are considered fixed, the analysis and presentation of results will differ from that of frequentist statistics. Most importantly, the probabilities that a parameter is in certain regions of the parameter space are crucial quantities in Bayesian statistics that are not calculable (or considered important) in the frequentist approach that is the basis of much of traditional statistics. In this article, I discuss the implications of these differences for presentation of the results of Bayesian analyses. In doing so, I present more detailed guidelines than are usually provided and explain the rationale for my suggestions.

Effect of Volume on Eccentric Overload-Induced Postactivation Potentiation of Jumps

PURPOSE

To investigate the postactivation potentiation (PAP) effects of different eccentric overload (EOL) exercise volumes on countermovement-jump (CMJ) and standing-long-jump (LJ) performance.

METHODS

In total, 13 male university soccer players participated in a crossover design study following a familiarization period. Control (no PAP) CMJ and LJ performances were recorded, and 3 experimental protocols were performed in a randomized order: 1, 2, or 3 sets of 6 repetitions of flywheel EOL half-squats (inertia = 0.029 kg·m2). Performance of CMJ and LJ was measured 3 and 6 minutes after all experimental conditions. The time course and magnitude of the PAP were compared between conditions.

RESULTS

Meaningful positive PAP effects were reported for CMJ after 2 (Bayes factor [BF10] = 3.15, moderate) and 3 (BF10 = 3.25, moderate) sets but not after 1 set (BF10 = 2.10, anecdotal). Meaningful positive PAP effects were reported for LJ after 2 (BF10 = 3.05, moderate) and 3 (BF10 = 3.44, moderate) sets but not after 1 set (BF10 = 0.53, anecdotal). The 2- and 3-set protocols resulted in meaningful positive PAP effects on both CMJ and LJ after 6 minutes but not after 3 minutes.

CONCLUSION

This study reported beneficial effects of multiset EOL exercise over a single set. A minimum of 2 sets of flywheel EOL half-squats are required to induce PAP effects on CMJ and LJ performance of male university soccer players. Rest intervals of around 6 minutes (>3 min) are required to maximize the PAP effects via multiple sets of EOL exercise. However, further research is needed to clarify the optimal EOL protocol configurations for PAP response.

Bayesian-based predictions of COVID-19 evolution in Texas using multispecies mixture-theoretic continuum models

We consider a mixture-theoretic continuum model of the spread of COVID-19 in Texas. The model consists of multiple coupled partial differential reaction-diffusion equations governing the evolution of susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered, and deceased fractions of the total population in a given region. We consider the problem of model calibration, validation, and prediction following a Bayesian learning approach implemented in OPAL (the Occam Plausibility Algorithm). Our goal is to incorporate COVID-19 data to calibrate the model in real-time and make meaningful predictions and specify the confidence level in the prediction by quantifying the uncertainty in key quantities of interests. Our results show smaller mortality rates in Texas than what is reported in the literature. We predict 7003 deceased cases by September 1, 2020 in Texas with 95 % CI 6802-7204. The model is validated for the total deceased cases, however, is found to be invalid for the total infected cases. We discuss possible improvements of the model.

Early administration of glucocorticoid for thyroid storm: analysis of a national administrative database

Background

Thyroid storm is a life-threatening disease with a mortality rate of over 10%. Although glucocorticoids have been recommended as a treatment option for thyroid storm, supportive evidence based on a large-scale clinical research is lacking. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the beneficial effects of glucocorticoids in the treatment of patients with severe thyroid storm.

Methods

A retrospective nationwide cohort study was conducted using a Japanese national administrative claims database. Patients admitted to intensive care units due to severe thyroid storm between the financial years 2013 and 2017 were included in the study. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality; secondary outcomes were mortality within 30 days and insulin administration during hospitalization. Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Bayesian estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC), in addition to propensity score matching (PSM), were used for statistical analysis.

Results

A total of 811 patients were included in the study, of which 600 patients were treated with glucocorticoids, and 211 patients were treated without glucocorticoids. The early administration of glucocorticoids was not associated with a significant improvement in the in-hospital mortality of patients with thyroid storm [adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.77 (0.95–3.34), 1.44 (1.14–1.93), and 1.46 (0.72–3.00) in the GLMM (MLE), GLMM (MCMC), and PSM, respectively]. The results of mortality within 30 days were almost identical to the results of in-hospital mortality. However, insulin use was significantly higher in the glucocorticoid group.

Conclusions

This analysis of a nationwide administrative database indicates that the administration of glucocorticoids does not improve the survival of patients with thyroid storm.

Comparing different spatio-temporal modeling methods in dengue fever data analysis in Colombia during 2012-2015

In this paper, we compare a variety of spatio-temporal conditional autoregressive models to a dengue fever dataset in Colombia, and incorporate an innovative data transformation method in the data analysis. In order to gain a better understanding on the effects of different niche variables in the epidemiological process, we explore Poisson-lognormal and binomial models with different Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling methods in this paper. Our results show that the selected model can well capture the variations of the data. The population density, elevation, daytime and night land surface temperatures are among the contributory variables to identify potential dengue outbreak regions; precipitation and vegetation variables are not significant in the selected spatio-temporal mixed effects model. The generated dengue fever probability maps from the model show a geographic distribution of risk that apparently coincides with the elevation gradient. The results in the paper provide the most benefits for future work in dengue studies.

A Randomized Controlled Trial to Investigate Safety and Variability of Egg Excretion After Repeated Controlled Human Hookworm Infection

BACKGROUND

Controlled human hookworm infections could significantly contribute to the development of a hookworm vaccine. However, current models are hampered by low and unstable egg output, reducing generalizability and increasing sample sizes. This study aims to investigate the safety, tolerability, and egg output of repeated exposure to hookworm larvae.

METHODS

Twenty-four healthy volunteers were randomized, double-blindly, to 1, 2, or 3 doses of 50 Necator americanus L3 larvae at 2-week intervals. Volunteers were monitored weekly and were treated with albendazole at week 20.

RESULTS

There was no association between larval dose and number or severity of adverse events. Geometric mean egg loads stabilized at 697, 1668, and 1914 eggs per gram feces for the 1 × 50L3, 2 × 50L3, and 3 × 50L3 group, respectively. Bayesian statistical modeling showed that egg count variability relative to the mean was reduced with a second infectious dose; however, the third dose did not increase egg load or decrease variability. We therefore suggest 2 × 50L3 as an improved challenge dose. Model-based simulations indicates increased frequency of stool sampling optimizes the power of hypothetical vaccine trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Repeated infection with hookworm larvae increased egg counts to levels comparable to the field and reduced relative variability in egg output without aggravating adverse events.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT03257072.

Assessing cetacean populations using integrated population models: an example with Cook Inlet beluga whales

Effective conservation and management of animal populations requires knowledge of abundance and trends. For many species, these quantities are estimated using systematic visual surveys. Additional individual-level data are available for some species. Integrated population modeling (IPM) offers a mechanism for leveraging these data sets into a single estimation framework. IPMs that incorporate both population- and individual-level data have previously been developed for birds, but have rarely been applied to cetaceans. Here, we explore how IPMs can be used to improve the assessment of cetacean populations. We combined three types of data that are typically available for cetaceans of conservation concern: population-level visual survey data, individual-level capture-recapture data, and data on anthropogenic mortality. We used this IPM to estimate the population dynamics of the Cook Inlet population of beluga whales (CIBW; Delphinapterus leucas) as a case study. Our state-space IPM included a population process model and three observational submodels: (1) a group detection model to describe group size estimates from aerial survey data; (2) a capture-recapture model to describe individual photographic capture-recapture data; and (3) a Poisson regression model to describe historical hunting data. The IPM produces biologically plausible estimates of population trajectories consistent with all three data sets. The estimated population growth rate since 2000 is less than expected for a recovering population. The estimated juvenile/adult survival rate is also low compared to other cetacean populations, indicating that low survival may be impeding recovery. This work demonstrates the value of integrating various data sources to assess cetacean populations and serves as an example of how multiple, imperfect data sets can be combined to improve our understanding of a population of interest. The model framework is applicable to other cetacean populations and to other taxa for which similar data types are available.

Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Versus Survey Sample Weighting for Estimating Population Quantities in Large Population Health Studies

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a model-based approach for estimating a population parameter of interest, generally from large-scale surveys. It has been shown to be effective in highly selected samples, which is particularly relevant to investigators of large-scale population health and epidemiologic surveys facing increasing difficulties in recruiting representative samples of participants. We aimed to further examine the accuracy and precision of MRP in a context where census data provided reasonable proxies for true population quantities of interest. We considered 2 outcomes from the baseline wave of the Ten to Men study (Australia, 2013-2014) and obtained relevant population data from the 2011 Australian Census. MRP was found to achieve generally superior performance relative to conventional survey weighting methods for the population as a whole and for population subsets of varying sizes. MRP resulted in less variability among estimates across population subsets relative to sample weighting, and there was some evidence of small gains in precision when using MRP, particularly for smaller population subsets. These findings offer further support for MRP as a promising analytical approach for addressing participation bias in the estimation of population descriptive quantities from large-scale health surveys and cohort studies.

Probabilistic reconstruction of measles transmission clusters from routinely collected surveillance data

Pockets of susceptibility resulting from spatial or social heterogeneity in vaccine coverage can drive measles outbreaks, as cases imported into such pockets are likely to cause further transmission and lead to large transmission clusters. Characterizing the dynamics of transmission is essential for identifying which individuals and regions might be most at risk. As data from detailed contact-tracing investigations are not available in many settings, we developed an R package called o2geosocial to reconstruct the transmission clusters and the importation status of the cases from their age, location, genotype and onset date. We compared our inferred cluster size distributions to 737 transmission clusters identified through detailed contact-tracing in the USA between 2001 and 2016. We were able to reconstruct the importation status of the cases and found good agreement between the inferred and reference clusters. The results were improved when the contact-tracing investigations were used to set the importation status before running the model. Spatial heterogeneity in vaccine coverage is difficult to measure directly. Our approach was able to highlight areas with potential for local transmission using a minimal number of variables and could be applied to assess the intensity of ongoing transmission in a region.

Size- and stage-dependence in cause-specific mortality of migratory brown trout

Evidence-based management of natural populations under strong human influence frequently requires not only estimates of survival but also knowledge about how much mortality is due to anthropogenic vs. natural causes. This is the case particularly when individuals vary in their vulnerability to different causes of mortality due to traits, life history stages, or locations. Here, we estimated harvest and background (other cause) mortality of landlocked migratory salmonids over half a century. In doing so, we quantified among-individual variation in vulnerability to cause-specific mortality resulting from differences in body size and spawning location relative to a hydropower dam. We constructed a multistate mark-recapture model to estimate harvest and background mortality hazard rates as functions of a discrete state (spawning location) and an individual time-varying covariate (body size). We further accounted for among-year variation in mortality and migratory behaviour and fit the model to a unique 50-year time series of mark-recapture-recovery data on brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Norway. Harvest mortality was highest for intermediate-sized trout, and outweighed background mortality for most of the observed size range. Background mortality decreased with body size for trout spawning above the dam and increased for those spawning below. All vital rates varied substantially over time, but a trend was evident only in estimates of fishers' reporting rate, which decreased from over 50% to less than 10% throughout the study period. We highlight the importance of body size for cause-specific mortality and demonstrate how this can be estimated using a novel hazard rate parameterization for mark-recapture models. Our approach allows estimating effects of individual traits and environment on cause-specific mortality without confounding, and provides an intuitive way to estimate temporal patterns within and correlation among different mortality sources.

Expert Elicitation for Latent Growth Curve Models: The Case of Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms Development in Children With Burn Injuries

Experts provide an alternative source of information to classical data collection methods such as surveys. They can provide additional insight into problems, supplement existing data, or provide insights when classical data collection is troublesome. In this paper, we explore the (dis)similarities between expert judgments and data collected by traditional data collection methods regarding the development of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSSs) in children with burn injuries. By means of an elicitation procedure, the experts' domain expertise is formalized and represented in the form of probability distributions. The method is used to obtain beliefs from 14 experts, including nurses and psychologists. Those beliefs are contrasted with questionnaire data collected on the same issue. The individual and aggregated expert judgments are contrasted with the questionnaire data by means of Kullback-Leibler divergences. The aggregated judgments of the group that mainly includes psychologists resemble the questionnaire data more than almost all of the individual expert judgments.

Stakeholder perspectives on adaptive clinical trials: a scoping review

Background

Adaptive clinical trials (ACTs) represent an emerging approach to trial design where accumulating data are used to make decisions about future conduct. Adaptations can include comparisons of multiple dose tiers, response-adaptive randomization, sample size re-estimation, and efficacy/futility stopping rules. The objective of this scoping review is to assess stakeholder attitudes, perspectives, and understanding of adaptive trials.

Methods

We conducted a review of articles examining stakeholders encompassing the broad medical trial community’s perspectives of adaptive designs (ADs). A computerized search was conducted of four electronic databases with relevant search terms. Following screening of articles, the primary findings of each included article were coded for study design, population studied, purpose, and primary implications.

Results

Our team retrieved 167 peer-reviewed titles in total from the database search and 5 additional titles through searching web-based search engines for gray literature. Of those 172 titles, 152 were non-duplicate citations. Of these, 119 were not given full-text reviews, as their titles and abstracts indicated that they did not meet the inclusion criteria. Thirty-three articles were carefully examined for relevance, and of those, 18 were chosen to be part of the analysis; the other 15 were excluded, as they were not relevant upon closer inspection.

Perceived advantages to ADs included limiting ineffective treatments and efficiency in answering the research question; −perceived barriers included insufficient sample size for secondary outcomes, challenges of consent, potential for bias, risk of type 1 error, cost and time to adaptively design trials, unclear rationales for using Ads, and, most importantly, a lack of education regarding ADs among stakeholders within the clinical trial community. Perceptions among different types of stakeholders varied from sector to sector, with patient perspectives being noticeably absent from the literature.

Conclusion

There are diverse perceptions regarding ADs among stakeholders. Further training, guidelines, and toolkits on the proper use of ADs are needed at all levels to overcome many of these perceived barriers. While education for principal investigators is important, it is also crucial to educate other groups in the community, such as patients, as well as clinicians and staff involved in their daily implementation.

Changes in firearm mortality following the implementation of state laws regulating firearm access and use

Many US states have tried to regulate firearm storage and use to reduce the 39,000 firearms-related deaths that occur each year. Looking at three classes of laws that regulate children’s access to firearms, the carrying of a concealed firearm, and the use of a firearm in self-defense, we found that state laws restricting firearm storage and use are associated with a subsequent 11% decrease in the firearms-related death rate. In a hypothetical situation in which there are 39,000 firearms deaths nationally under the permissive combination of these three laws, we expect 4,475 (80% CI, 1,761 to 6,949) more deaths nationally than under the restrictive combination of these laws.

Although 39,000 individuals die annually from gunshots in the US, research examining the effects of laws designed to reduce these deaths has sometimes produced inconclusive or contradictory findings. We evaluated the effects on total firearm-related deaths of three classes of gun laws: child access prevention (CAP), right-to-carry (RTC), and stand your ground (SYG) laws. The analyses exploit changes in these state-level policies from 1970 to 2016, using Bayesian methods and a modeling approach that addresses several methodological limitations of prior gun policy evaluations. CAP laws showed the strongest evidence of an association with firearm-related death rate, with a probability of 0.97 that the death rate declined at 6 y after implementation. In contrast, the probability of being associated with an increase in firearm-related deaths was 0.87 for RTC laws and 0.77 for SYG laws. The joint effects of these laws indicate that the restrictive gun policy regime (having a CAP law without an RTC or SYG law) has a 0.98 probability of being associated with a reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive policy regime. This estimated effect corresponds to an 11% reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive legal regime. Our findings suggest that a small but meaningful decrease in firearm-related deaths may be associated with the implementation of more restrictive gun policies.

Spatiotemporal matching between medical resources and population ageing in China from 2008 to 2017

Background

Globally, the increasingly severe population ageing issue has been creating challenges in terms of medical resource allocation and public health policies. The aim of this study is to address the space-time trends of the population-ageing rate (PAR), the number of medical resources per thousand residents (NMRTR) in mainland China in the past 10 years, and to investigate the spatial and temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China.

Methods

The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PAR and NMRTR in mainland China over the past 10 years. Subsequently, a Bayesian Geo-Detector model was developed to evaluate the spatial and temporal matching levels between PAR and NMRTR at national level. The matching odds ratio (OR) index proposed in this paper was applied to measure the matching levels between the two terms in each provincial area.

Results

The Chinese spatial and temporal matching q-statistic values between the PAR and three vital types of NMRTR were all less than 0.45. Only the spatial matching Bayesian q-statistic values between the PAR and the number of beds in hospital reached 0.42 (95% credible interval: 0.37, 0.48) nationwide. Chongqing and Guizhou located in southwest China had the highest spatial and temporal matching ORs, respectively, between the PAR and the three types of NMRTR. The spatial pattern of the spatial and temporal matching ORs between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China exhibited distinct geographical features, but the geographical structure of the spatial matching differed from that of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR.

Conclusion

The spatial and temporal matching degrees between the PAR and NMRTR in mainland China were generally very low. The provincial regions with high PAR largely experienced relatively low spatial matching levels between the PAR and NMRTR, and vice versa. The geographical pattern of the temporal matching between the PAR and NMRTR exhibited the feature of north-south differentiation.

HARMONIES: A Hybrid Approach for Microbiome Networks Inference via Exploiting Sparsity

The human microbiome is a collection of microorganisms. They form complex communities and collectively affect host health. Recently, the advances in next-generation sequencing technology enable the high-throughput profiling of the human microbiome. This calls for a statistical model to construct microbial networks from the microbiome sequencing count data. As microbiome count data are high-dimensional and suffer from uneven sampling depth, over-dispersion, and zero-inflation, these characteristics can bias the network estimation and require specialized analytical tools. Here we propose a general framework, HARMONIES, Hybrid Approach foR MicrobiOme Network Inferences via Exploiting Sparsity, to infer a sparse microbiome network. HARMONIES first utilizes a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) distribution to model the skewness and excess zeros in the microbiome data, as well as incorporates a stochastic process prior for sample-wise normalization. This approach infers a sparse and stable network by imposing non-trivial regularizations based on the Gaussian graphical model. In comprehensive simulation studies, HARMONIES outperformed four other commonly used methods. When using published microbiome data from a colorectal cancer study, it discovered a novel community with disease-enriched bacteria. In summary, HARMONIES is a novel and useful statistical framework for microbiome network inference, and it is available at https://github.com/shuangj00/HARMONIES.

Multilevel modelling as a tool to include variability and uncertainty in quantitative microbiology and risk assessment. Thermal inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes as proof of concept

Variability is inherent in biology and also substantial for microbial populations. In the context of food safety risk assessment, it refers to differences in the response of different bacterial strains (between-strain variability) and different cells (within-strain variability) to the same condition (e.g. inactivation treatment). However, its quantification based on empirical observations and its incorporation in predictive models is a challenge for both experimental design and (statistical) analysis. In this article we propose the use of multilevel models to quantify (different levels of) variability and uncertainty and include them in the predictions. As proof of concept, we analyse the microbial inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes to thermal treatments including different levels of variability (between-strain and within-strain) and uncertainty. The relationship between the microbial count and time was expressed using a (non-linear) Weibullian model. Moreover, we defined stochastic hypotheses to describe the different types of variation at the level of the kinetic parameters, as well as in the observations (microbial counts). The model parameters (kinetic parameters and variances) are estimated using Bayesian statistics. The multilevel approach was compared against an analogous, single-level model. The multilevel methodology shrinks extreme parameter estimates towards the mean according to uncertainty, thus mitigating overfitting. In addition, this approach enables to easily incorporate different levels of variation (between-strain and/or within-strain variability and/or uncertainty) in the predictions. On the other hand, multilevel (Bayesian) models are more complex to define, implement, analyse and communicate than single-level models. Nevertheless, their ability to incorporate different sources of variability in predictions make them very suitable for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment.

An objective Bayesian analysis of life's early start and our late arrival

Life emerged on Earth within the first quintile of its habitable window, but a technological civilization did not blossom until its last. Efforts to infer the rate of abiogenesis, based on its early emergence, are frustrated by the selection effect that if the evolution of intelligence is a slow process, then life's early start may simply be a prerequisite to our existence, rather than useful evidence for optimism. In this work, we interpret the chronology of these two events in a Bayesian framework, extending upon previous work by considering that the evolutionary timescale is itself an unknown that needs to be jointly inferred, rather than fiducially set. We further adopt an objective Bayesian approach, such that our results would be agreed upon even by those using wildly different priors for the rates of abiogenesis and evolution-common points of contention for this problem. It is then shown that the earliest microfossil evidence for life indicates that the rate of abiogenesis is at least 2.8 times more likely to be a typically rapid process, rather than a slow one. This modest limiting Bayes factor rises to 8.7 if we accept the more disputed evidence of ¹³C-depleted zircon deposits [E. A. Bell, P. Boehnke, T. M. Harrison, W. L. Mao, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 112, 14518-14521 (2015)]. For intelligence evolution, it is found that a rare-intelligence scenario is slightly favored at 3:2 betting odds. Thus, if we reran Earth's clock, one should statistically favor life to frequently reemerge, but intelligence may not be as inevitable.

New Insights Into the Kinetics and Variability of Egg Excretion in Controlled Human Hookworm Infections

Four healthy volunteers were infected with 50 Necator americanus infective larvae (L3) in a controlled human hookworm infection trial and followed for 52 weeks. The kinetics of fecal egg counts in volunteers was assessed with Bayesian multilevel analysis, which revealed an increase between weeks 7 and 13, followed by an egg density plateau of about 1000 eggs/g of feces. Variation in egg counts was minimal between same-day measurements but varied considerably between days, particularly during the plateau phase. These analyses pave the way for the controlled human hookworm model to accelerate drug and vaccine efficacy studies.

Bayesian analysis for social data: A step-by-step protocol and interpretation

The paper proposes Bayesian analysis as an alternative approach for the conventional frequentist approach in analyzing social data. A step-by-step protocol of how to implement Bayesian multilevel model analysis with social data and how to interpret the result is presented. The article used a dataset regarding religious teachings and behaviors of lying and violence as an example. An analysis is performed using R statistical software and a bayesvl R package, which offers a network-structured model construction and visualization power to diagnose and estimate results.•

The paper provides guidance for conducting a Bayesian multilevel analysis in social sciences through constructing directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, or "relationship trees") for different models, basic and more complex ones.

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The method also illustrates how to visualize Bayesian diagnoses and simulated posterior.

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The interpretations of visualized diagnoses and simulated posteriors of Bayesian inference are also discussed.

bayes4psy-An Open Source R Package for Bayesian Statistics in Psychology

Research in psychology generates complex data and often requires unique statistical analyses. These tasks are often very specific, so appropriate statistical models and methods cannot be found in accessible Bayesian tools. As a result, the use of Bayesian methods is limited to researchers and students that have the technical and statistical fundamentals that are required for probabilistic programming. Such knowledge is not part of the typical psychology curriculum and is a difficult obstacle for psychology students and researchers to overcome. The goal of the bayes4psy package is to bridge this gap and offer a collection of models and methods to be used for analysing data that arises from psychological experiments and as a teaching tool for Bayesian statistics in psychology. The package contains the Bayesian t-test and bootstrapping along with models for analysing reaction times, success rates, and tasks utilizing colors as a response. It also provides the diagnostic, analytic and visualization tools for the modern Bayesian data analysis workflow.

Human fecal contamination of water, soil, and surfaces in households sharing poor-quality sanitation facilities in Maputo, Mozambique

Identifying the origin of fecal contamination can support more effective interventions to interrupt enteric pathogen transmission. Microbial source tracking (MST) assays may help to identify environmental routes of pathogen transmission although these assays have performed poorly in highly contaminated domestic settings, highlighting the importance of both diagnostic validation and understanding the context-specific ecological, physical, and sociodemographic factors driving the spread of fecal contamination. We assessed fecal contamination of compounds (clusters of 2-10 households that share sanitation facilities) in low-income neighborhoods of urban Maputo, Mozambique, using a set of MST assays that were validated with animal stool and latrine sludge from study compounds. We sampled five environmental compartments involved in fecal microbe transmission and exposure: compound water source, household stored water and food preparation surfaces, and soil from the entrance to the compound latrine and the entrances to each household. Each sample was analyzed by culture for the general fecal indicator Escherichia coli (cEC) and by real-time PCR for the E. coli molecular marker EC23S857, human-associated markers HF183/BacR287 and Mnif, and GFD, an avian-associated marker. We collected 366 samples from 94 households in 58 compounds. At least one microbial target (indicator organism or marker gene) was detected in 96% of samples (353/366), with both E. coli targets present in the majority of samples (78%). Human targets were frequently detected in soils (59%) and occasionally in stored water (17%) but seldom in source water or on food surfaces. The avian target GFD was rarely detected in any sample type but was most common in soils (4%). To identify risk factors of fecal contamination, we estimated associations with sociodemographic, meteorological, and physical sample characteristics for each microbial target and sample type combination using Bayesian censored regression for target concentration responses and Bayesian logistic regression for target detection status. Associations with risk factors were generally weak and often differed in direction between different targets and sample types, though relationships were somewhat more consistent for physical sample characteristics. Wet soils were associated with elevated concentrations of cEC and EC23S857 and odds of detecting HF183. Water storage container characteristics that expose the contents to potential contact with hands and other objects were weakly associated with human target detection. Our results describe a setting impacted by pervasive domestic fecal contamination, including from human sources, that was largely disconnected from the observed variation in socioeconomic and sanitary conditions. This pattern suggests that in such highly contaminated settings, transformational changes to the community environment may be required before meaningful impacts on fecal contamination can be realized.

Phenome-Wide Analysis of Short- and Long-Run Disease Incidence Following Recurrent Pregnancy Loss Using Data From a 39-Year Period

Background It is unclear how recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) impacts disease risk and whether there is a difference in risk between women with or without a live birth before RPL (primary versus secondary RPL). We investigated the disease risk following RPL, and whether there was a difference between primary and secondary RPL. Methods and Results Using population-wide healthcare registries from Denmark, we identified a cohort of 1 370 896 ever-pregnant women aged 12 to 40 years between 1977 and 2016. Of this cohort, 10 691 (0.77%) fulfilled the criteria for RPL (50.0% primary RPL). Average follow-up was 15.8 years. Incidence rate ratios were calculated in a phenome-wide manner. Diagnoses related to assessment and diagnosis of RPL and those appearing later in life were separated using a mixture model. Primary RPL increased the risk of subsequent cardiovascular disorders, including atherosclerosis, cerebral infarction, heart failure, and pulmonary embolism, as well as systemic lupus erythematosus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety, and obsessive-compulsive disorder. Women with secondary RPL had no increased risk of cardiovascular disorders. However, we observed an increased risk of gastrointestinal disorders such as irritable bowel syndrome and intestinal malabsorption, as well as mental disorders and obstetric complications. Conclusions RPL is a risk factor for a spectrum of disorders, which is different for primary and secondary RPL. Screening following RPL explains some associations, but the remaining findings suggest that RPL influences or shares cause with cardiovascular disorders, autoimmune disorders, and mental disorders. Research into the pathophysiology of RPL and later diseases merits further investigation.

Weyl Prior and Bayesian Statistics

When using Bayesian inference, one needs to choose a prior distribution for parameters. The well-known Jeffreys prior is based on the Riemann metric tensor on a statistical manifold. Takeuchi and Amari defined the α -parallel prior, which generalized the Jeffreys prior by exploiting a higher-order geometric object, known as a Chentsov-Amari tensor. In this paper, we propose a new prior based on the Weyl structure on a statistical manifold. It turns out that our prior is a special case of the α -parallel prior with the parameter α equaling - n , where n is the dimension of the underlying statistical manifold and the minus sign is a result of conventions used in the definition of α -connections. This makes the choice for the parameter α more canonical. We calculated the Weyl prior for univariate Gaussian and multivariate Gaussian distribution. The Weyl prior of the univariate Gaussian turns out to be the uniform prior.

A Bayesian Null Interval Hypothesis Test Controls False Discovery Rates and Improves Sensitivity in Label-Free Quantitative Proteomics

Statistical significance tests are a common feature in quantitative proteomics workflows. The Student's t-test is widely used to compute the statistical significance of a protein's change between two groups of samples. However, the t-test's null hypothesis asserts that the difference in means between two groups is exactly zero, often marking small but uninteresting fold-changes as statistically significant. Compensations to address this issue are widely used in quantitative proteomics, but we suggest that a replacement of the t-test with a Bayesian approach offers a better path forward. In this article, we describe a Bayesian hypothesis test in which the null hypothesis is an interval rather than a single point at zero; the width of the interval is estimated from population statistics. The improved sensitivity of the method substantially increases the number of truly changing proteins detected in two benchmark data sets (ProteomeXchange identifiers PXD005590 and PXD016470). The method has been implemented within FlashLFQ, an open-source software program that quantifies bottom-up proteomics search results obtained from any search tool. FlashLFQ is rapid, sensitive, and accurate and is available both as an easy-to-use graphical user interface (Windows) and as a command-line tool (Windows/Linux/OSX).