Malaria vaccines: lessons from field trials

Malaria vaccine candidates have already been tested and new trials are being carried out. We present a brief description of specific issues of validity that are relevant when assessing vaccine efficacy in the field and illustrate how the application of these principles might improve our interpretation of the data being gathered in actual malaria vaccine field trials. Our discussion assumes that vaccine evaluation shares the same general principles of validity with epidemiologic causal inference, i.e., the process of drawing inferences from epidemiologic data aiming at the identification of causes of diseases. Judicious exercise of these principles indicates that, for meaningful interpretation, measures of vaccine efficacy require definitions based upon arguments conditional on the amount of exposure to infection, and specification of the initial and final states in which one believes the effect of interest takes place.

Can the human brain do quantum computing?

The electrical membrane properties have been the key issues in the understanding of the cerebral physiology for more than almost two centuries. But, molecular neurobiology has now discovered that biochemical transactions play an important role in neuronal computations. Quantum computing (QC) is becoming a reality both from the theoretical point of view as well as from practical applications. Quantum mechanics is the most accurate description at atomic level and it lies behind all chemistry that provides the basis for biology ... maybe the magic of entanglement is also crucial for life. The purpose of the present paper is to discuss the dendrite spine as a quantum computing device, taking into account what is known about the physiology of the glutamate receptors and the cascade of biochemical transactions triggered by the glutamate binding to these receptors.

Vaccination against rubella: analysis of the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and the effects of different contact patterns

In this paper, we analyze the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and incidence of rubella, after the introduction of a very specific vaccination program in a previously nonvaccinated population where rubella was in endemic steady state. We deduce an integral equation for the age-dependent force of infection, which depends on a number of parameters that can be estimated from the force of infection in a steady state prior to the vaccination program. We present the results of our simulations, which are compared with observed data. We also examine the influence of contact patterns among members of a community on the age-dependent intensity of transmission of rubella and on the results of vaccination strategies. As an example of the theory proposed, we calculate the effects of vaccination strategies for four communities from Caieiras (Brazil), Huixquilucan (Mexico), Finland, and the United Kingdom. The results for each community differ considerably according to the distinct intensity and pattern of transmission in the absence of vaccination. We conclude that this simple vaccination program is not very efficient (very slow) in the goal of eradicating the disease. This gives support to a mixed strategy, proposed by Massad et al., accepted and implemented by the government of the State of São Paulo, Brazil.

Malnutrition and susceptibility to enteroparasites: reinfection rates after mass chemotherapy

The evidence that relates malnutrition to enteroparasite infections arises from studies that demonstrate the improvement of nutritional indicators after antiparasitism treatment. However, the role of malnutrition as an aggravating factor to the susceptibility to enteroparasite infections is still not fully understood. We investigated the correlation between malnutrition and enteroparasite infection after mass chemotherapy, in a poor city of São Paulo State, Brazil. The sample comprised 759 children between 1 and 10 years of age of whom 585 were followed up for a period of 1 year and periodically assessed for reinfection with enteroparasites. One year of follow-up after mass chemotherapy demonstrated that 38 of the undernourished children were reinfected with enteroparasites, as compared with 25 of the eutrophic children (P = 0.033). The survival multivariate analysis demonstrated that, after controlling for the potential confounding variables, maternal literacy and per capita income rate, malnutrition was associated with susceptibility to reinfection (P = 0.13). We demonstrate that, although maternal literacy and per capita income rate are indeed confounding variables, malnutrition contributes to an increase in the risk of enteroparasite infections.

Varicella transmission in two samples of children with different social behaviour in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

In order to establish the differences in transmission pattern of varicella-zoster virus (VZV), a comparative seroepidemiological study was carried out in two different children samples. Children aged 1-11 years, were randomly selected from state schools of São Paulo city, Brazil. Individuals aged 1-15 years were sampled by cluster from Caieiras city. Children aged 3 years or under from Caieiras were not attending school, while those from São Paulo were attending all-day nurseries or kindergarten. The presence of antibodies to VZV was analysed by ELISA technique. The force of infection and contact rate were determined by mathematical techniques. The average age of first infection was 2.87 +/- 0.14 years and 4.07 +/- 0.47 years for Sao Paulo and Caieiras, respectively. The average force of infection estimated was 0.29 year(-1) for São Paulo and was 0.26 year(-1) for Caieiras. The proportion of seropositivity and the force of infection were higher in São Paulo school children up to 3 years of age compared with Caieiras children, where the social contact starts later. In conclusion, social changes affecting contact among children may influence varicella epidemiology.

A mixed ectoparasite--microparasite model for bat-transmitted rabies

This paper considers the transmission of rabies to domestic livestock by vampire bats. Vampire bats act as ectoparasites on cattle both by ingesting a small amount of blood every night and by prolonging bleeding by the action of anticoagulant substances in their saliva. In addition to this parasitic action bats may also transmit rabies, inflicting important losses on affected herds by the inevitable mortality due to the infection. We modeled this complex interaction and we also demonstrate that bat control measures are more effective in reducing rabies prevalence and mortality by rabies than cattle vaccination.

Modelling the natural history of HIV infection in individuals and its epidemiological implications

The variation of viraemia in the natural course of HIV infection is expected to have major influence on the probability of transmission and, consequently, on the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. In this paper we propose a model which takes into account the time evolution of HIV viraemia (measured as HIV-RNA copies per ml of blood) in an infected individual and its impact on the threshold for the establishment of an endemic level, and mainly on the relative contribution of each of the clinical phases of the infection to the total transmission of HIV per infected individual. We consider that an infected individual passes through three phases of viraemia. The first phase, which lasts for 6-7 weeks, is characterized by very high viraemia. In the second phase, which lasts about 10 years, the viraemia is much lower, increasing again in the last phase, which lasts up to two years, and ends in full-blown AIDS. We show that the relative contribution of each phase to the total transmission of HIV is very sensitive to the model we assume for the dependence of the transmissibility of HIV on the viral load. For instance, if we assume that transmissibility is proportional to the decimal logarithm of viraemia, then the second phase predominates always. Due to the epidemiological importance of this fact, it is clear that further improvement on virological research to better understand the dependence of HIV transmissibility on the viral concentration in biological fluids is necessary.

Optimal age for vaccination against measles in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, taking into account the mother's serostatus

In order to investigate if the changing levels of measles antibody in women resulting from extensive vaccination programs influence the susceptibility of children, we measured the seroprevalence of measles virus antibody of children in the first year of life and of their mothers. We compared maternal antibody decay of two groups of children: those whose mothers were 25 years old or more (mothers born in the pre-vaccination era), and less than 25 years old (mothers born in the vaccination era). Therefore, the 25-year-age cut-off was chosen to distinguish between vaccinated and non-vaccinated mothers. We also compared the immunogenicity of measles vaccine in children from 6 to 12 months of age, in these two groups and also according to their mother's serostatus. The optimal age of vaccination for a routine program was estimated by means of mathematical models. This study was carried out in a sample of 1216 mothers and their respective children. Our results indicate that the optimal age for vaccination of the whole sample was 15 months, 17 months for children born from older mothers, 14 months for children born from younger mothers, 17 months for children born from seropositive mothers and 12 months for children born from seronegative mothers. Therefore, a change to an earlier age of routine vaccination is not justified by our results.

The risk of yellow fever in a dengue-infested area

Yellow fever and dengue are viral infections that in urban centres are transmitted by the same arthropod vector, a mosquito of the genus Aedes. In order to estimate the risk of an epidemic of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area we calculated the threshold in the basic reproduction number, R0, of dengue, above which any single sylvatic yellow fever-infected individual will trigger an urban yellow fever epidemic. Specifically, we analysed the relationship between the extrinsic incubation period and the duration of viraemia, from which it is possible to define the R0 for dengue that would also suggest an outbreak potential for yellow fever. We also calculated the critical proportion of people to vaccinate against yellow fever in order to prevent an epidemic in a dengue-endemic area. The theory proposed is illustrated by the case of São Paulo State in southern Brazil, where dengue is endemic and the risk of urban yellow fever is already imminent.

Cytomegalovirus seroepidemiology in an urban community of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: After the era of rubella vaccine, cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is one of the most frequently causes of mental retardation and congenital deafness. Seroepidemiological studies are necessary to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease. The purpose of the study was to quantify the transmission rate of CMV disease in a community in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Using ELISA test (IgG), a retrospective serological survey looking for CMV antibodies was performed in an non-immunized community. Frozen sera from 443 individuals, randomly selected by cluster sampling technique in the town of Caieiras, São Paulo, were collected from November 1990 to January 1991. Seroprevalence was stratified by age (0-40 years). Mathematical techniques were applied to determine the age-dependent decay function of maternal antibodies during the first year of life, the age-dependent seroprevalence function and the force of infection for CMV in this community. RESULTS: It was observed a descending phase of seropositivity in the first 9 months, but changes in antibody titration were observed between 8 months old and one year of age. The average age of the first infection was 5.02 months of age and 19.84 years, when the age-dependent seroprevalence and the force of infection were analyzed between 10 months of age and 10 years of age and from 10 to 40 years old, respectively. CONCLUSION: CMV infection is highly prevalent among the population studied and infection occurs in the first year of life. This study shows that most women at reproductive age are vulnerable to the first infection, increasing the risk for congenital infection.

Neutralizing antirabies antibodies in urban terrestrial wildlife in Brazil

The prevalence of rabies neutralizing antibodies (NA) in sera of wild animals from São Paulo City (Brazil) was investigated using the Rapid Fluorescent Focus Inhibition Test between 1994 and 1997. Sera from 547 specimens were examined. Marsupials represented 45% of the sample and primates 37%; carnivores, rodents, deer and edentates represented 6, 6, 3 and 2%, respectively. The overall prevalence of NA was 14%. The prevalence of NA was 18% in primates; whereas in marsupials, carnivores, edentates and rodents it was 13, 9, 8 and 6%, respectively. The stratification according to sex, age, and site of capture of the marsupials and primates showed a small predominance in males versus females and a large predominance of adults versus juveniles. The same relationship was seen in specimens captured near human habitations versus specimens captured in their own habitat. It is evident that there is circulation of rabies virus in wild animals, which are not recommended as pets since they represent a potential risk of exposure to rabies virus for both humans and domestic animals.

Correlation between HIV and HCV in Brazilian prisoners: evidence for parenteral transmission inside prison

OBJECTIVE

It is an accepted fact that confinement conditions increase the risk of some infections related to sexual and/or injecting drugs practices. Mathematical techniques were applied to estimate time-dependent incidence densities of HIV infection among inmates.

METHODS

A total of 631 prisoners from a Brazilian prison with 4,900 inmates at that time were interviewed and their blood drawn. Risky behavior for HIV infection was analyzed, and serological tests for HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis were performed, intended as surrogates for parenteral and sexual HIV transmission, respectively. Mathematical techniques were used to estimate the incidence density ratio, as related to the time of imprisonment.

RESULTS

Prevalence were: HIV - 16%; HCV - 34%; and syphilis - 18%. The main risk behaviors related to HIV infection were HCV prevalence (OR=10.49) and the acknowledged use of injecting drugs (OR=3.36). Incidence density ratio derivation showed that the risk of acquiring HIV infection increases with the time of imprisonment, peaking around three years after incarceration.

CONCLUSIONS

The correlation between HIV and HCV seroprevalence and the results of the mathematical analysis suggest that HIV transmission in this population is predominantly due to parenteral exposure by injecting drug, and that it increases with time of imprisonment.

Three year seroepidemiological study of varicella-zoster virus in São Paulo, Brazil

A serosurvey of varicella has been carried out in children attending the public school network of São Paulo city, Brazil, from 1992 to 1994. This study was performed in order to establish the age related prevalence of antibodies against varicella-zoster virus (VZV) and its age specific transmission dynamics pattern in these children. Among 2500 schools in the city of São Paulo public network, 304 were randomly selected; 7 children of a given age (ranging from 1 to 15 years) were randomly selected in each school, and blood samples were obtained by fingerprick into filter paper. Blood eluates were analyzed for the presence of antibodies to VZV by ELISA. Proportion of seropositivity were calculated for each age group. Samples consisted of 1768 individuals in 1992, 1758 in 1993, and 1817 in 1994, resulting in 5343 eluates. A high proportion of seropositive children from 1 to 3 years of age was observed, ascending until 10 years of age and reaching a plateau around 90% afterwards. VZV transmission in this community was similar along the three years of the study. In children attending public schools in the city of São Paulo, contact with VZV occurs in early childhood. If immunization against VZV is considered it should be introduced as soon as possible.

Rabies seroprevalence of street dogs from São Paulo City, Brazil

A sample of 602 street dogs captured by the São Paulo zoonosis-control municipal service was analyzed for the presence of serum antibodies against the rabies virus and compared to a control sample of 37 dogs from the kennel of the police of São Paulo. Data were stratified into 4 age intervals and the age from the street-dog sample was estimated by general aspects and dental observation according to standard techniques. We assumed that seropositivity was due to previous vaccination (no sub-clinical infection). From the prevalence data, we estimated the age-dependent incidence-density rate of vaccination by a simple mathematical model, which also allowed the estimation of the period of antibody protection given by the supposed vaccination. Crude seroprevalence in the street-dog sample was 16.5% and in the sample from the police-kennel dogs was 80%. The average age of first vaccination calculated for the street-dog sample was 5 years of age (if we assumed an average period of vaccine protection of 3 years) - but 5 months of age for the police-kennel sample.

Decision trees and fuzzy logic: a comparison of models for the selection of measles vaccination strategies in Brazil

In 1997, health authorities of the state of São Paulo, Brazil designed a vaccination campaign against measles based on a decision model that utilized fuzzy logic. The chosen mass vaccination strategy was implemented and changed the natural course of the epidemic in that state. We have built a model using a decision tree and compare it to the fuzzy logic model. Using essentially the same set of assumptions about this problem, we contrast the two approaches. The models identify the same strategy as being the best one, but exhibit differences in the ranking of the remaining strategies.

Relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping and genital neoplasia in HIV-positive patients of Santos City, São Paulo, Brazil

Among HIV-positive women, infection with multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) types is known to be more frequent and persistent, as well as a greater prevalence of high-grade genital lesions. This study aims to characterize, for the first time in Brazil, HPV presence and types among HIV-positive women of a high-risk population for genital intraepithelial neoplasia (GIN) development. A non-anonymous, voluntary, cross-sectional epidemiological survey was conducted, from June 1996 to April 1997, among 141 HIV-positive women followed at the Center of Reference in AIDS (CRAIDS). They were submitted to gynaecological examination, cytological screening and biopsies whenever necessary, for GIN and HPV DNA detection through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique. Positive HPV DNA were found in 80.8% patients. Two or more HPV types were detected in 45% of the samples. The most frequent HPV types detected were 16, 18 (30.5%); 61, 53 (24.4%), and non-identified types (18.7%). According to the oncogenic potential, 34.8% were considered of high-risk types. Among these HIV-positive patients, a great variety of HPV types, including high-risk types, was found in anogenital environment, as well as among young women, a great prevalence of high-grade genital lesions. Thus, it should strengthen the need for a periodical careful gynaecological examination among those women.

Hepatitis A incidence rate estimates from a pilot seroprevalence survey in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

BACKGROUND

To assess the impact of water sanitation and sewage disposal, part of a major environmental control programme in Rio de Janeiro, we carried out sero-prevalence studies for Hepatitis A virus (HAV) in three micro-regions in Rio de Janeiro. Each region varied with regard to level of sanitation. We are interested in assessing the discriminating power of age-specific prevalence curves for HAV as a proxy for improvement in sanitation. These curves will serve as baseline information to future planned surveys as the sanitation programme progresses.

METHODS

Incidence rate curves from prevalence data are estimated parametrically via a Weibull-like survival function, and non-parametrically via maximum likelihood and monotonic splines. Sera collected from children and adults in the three areas are used to detect antibodies against HAV through ELISA.

RESULTS

We compare baseline incidence curves at the three sites estimated by the three methods. We observe a strong negative correlation between level of sanitation and incidence rates for HAV infection. Incidence estimates yielded by the parametric and non-parametric approaches tend to agree at early ages in the microregion showing the best level of sanitation and to increasingly disagree in the other two.

CONCLUSION

Our results support the choice of HAV as a sentinel disease that is associated with level of sanitation. We also introduce monotonic splines as a novel non-parametric approach to estimate incidence from prevalence data. This approach outperforms current estimating procedures.

A theoretical model of the evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS

INTRODUCTION

The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population.

METHODS

Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided.

RESULTS

The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners.

CONCLUSION

It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high) rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more) virulent strain prevails.

Detection of antibodies against hepatitis A virus in eluates of blood spotted on filter-paper: a pilot study in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The validity of blood spotted on to filter-paper (BSOFP) eluates for the detection of antibodies against hepatitis A virus (HAV) was investigated in 718 individuals (children and adults) during a field study in a small area in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Serum samples were considered the 'gold standard'. BSOFP eluates were analyzed by 2 different techniques: microplate competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) of the whole study group and microparticle enzyme immune assay (MEIA) of a subsample of 59 individuals. For BSOFP eluates by ELISA, sensitivity and specificity were 89.6% (95% CI: 84.7-93.1) and 97.5% (95% CI: 95.6-98.7), respectively. For a seroprevalence of anti-HAV antibodies of 32%, the positive predictive value was 94.5% (95% CI: 90.3-97.0) and the negative predictive value was 95.2% (95% CI: 92.8-96.8). The test efficiency was 95.0% (95% CI: 93.1-96.4). Similar results were found for BSOFP eluates by MEIA. Agreement between the 2 techniques used for BSOFP (ELISA and MEIA) was also high (kappa = 0.93). These results encourage the more widespread application of BSOFP as a means of surveillance for large-scale epidemiological studies for hepatitis A.

Fuzzy logic and measles vaccination: designing a control strategy

BACKGROUND

The State of São Paulo, the most populous in Brazil, was virtually free of measles from 1987 until the end of 1996 when the number of cases started to rise. It reached alarming numbers in the middle of 1997 and local health authorities decided to implement a mass vaccination campaign.

METHODS

Fuzzy Decision Making techniques are applied to the design of the vaccination campaign.

RESULTS

The mass vaccination strategy chosen changed the natural course of the epidemic. It had a significant impact on the epidemic in the metropolitan area of São Paulo city, but a second epidemic in the State's interior forced the public health authorities to implement a second mass vaccination campaign 2 months after the first.

CONCLUSIONS

Fuzzy Logic techniques are a powerful tool for the design of control strategies against epidemics of infectious diseases.

Seroprevalence of HIV, HCV and syphilis in Brazilian prisoners: preponderance of parenteral transmission

Between November 1993 and April 1994, our physicians' team interviewed and took blood samples of 631 prisoners randomly drawn from the largest prison of South America, which counted about 4700 inmates at that time. The interview consisted of questions related to risk behaviour for HIV infection, and the subjects were asked to provide blood for serological tests for HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis. Our main purpose was to investigate the relationship between HCV and injecting drug use as related to HIV seropositivity. Participation in the study was voluntary and confidentiality was guaranteed. Overall prevalences found were as follows: HIV: 16% (95% confidence interval (CI): 13-19%); HCV: 34% (95% CI: 30-38%), and syphilis: 18% (95% CI: 15-21%). Acknowledged use of ever injecting drug was 22% and no other parenteral risk was reported. Our results, as compared with other studies in the same prison, suggest that HIV prevalence has been stable in recent years, and that the major risk factor for HIV infection in this population is parenteral exposure by injecting drug use.