Mortality among solid organ transplant recipients with a pretransplant cancer diagnosis

Little is known about the outcomes among solid organ transplant recipients with a pretransplant cancer diagnosis. We used linked data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients with 33 US cancer registries. Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations of pretransplant cancer with overall mortality, cancer-specific mortality, and development of a new posttransplant cancer. Among 311 677 recipients, the presence of a single pretransplant cancer was associated with increased overall mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.15-1.23) and cancer-specific mortality (aHR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.76-2.12); results for 2+ pretransplant cancers were similar. Cancer-specific mortality was not significantly increased for uterine, prostate, or thyroid cancers (aHRs were 0.83, 1.22, and 1.54, respectively) but strongly elevated for lung cancer and myeloma (aHRs were 3.72 and 4.42, respectively). A pretransplant cancer diagnosis was also associated with increased risk of developing posttransplant cancer (aHR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23-1.40). Among 306 recipients whose cancer death was confirmed by cancer registry data, 158 deaths (51.6%) were from a de novo posttransplant cancer and 105 (34.3%) from the pretransplant cancer. Pretransplant cancer diagnoses are associated with increased mortality after transplantation, but some deaths are related to posttransplant cancers and other causes. Improved candidate selection and cancer screening and prevention may reduce mortality in this population.

Abstract B008: Autoimmune disease and the risk of anal cancer in the U.S. elderly population

Background: Recently, anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) has increased rapidly over time, particularly among older women. As immunosuppression is associated with increased anal cancer risk, a parallel increase in autoimmune conditions may be contributing to this rising trend. Methods: We conducted a population-based case-control study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database (years 2000-2017). Cases were individuals with first anal SCC diagnosed in SEER registries (N=4,505) and 199,566 cancer-free controls from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries. Using logistic regression, we calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for associations with 47 autoimmune conditions identified via Medicare claims. Models were adjusted for age (continuous), sex, race (white, others), year of selection (quartiles), average number of physician claims per year (quartiles), medicare coverage months (quartiles) and smoking status. The false discovery rate was used to correct for multiple comparisons. Results: 18% of cases and 15% of controls had any autoimmune condition diagnosed. Having any autoimmune condition was associated with an increased risk of anal SCC (OR 1.12, 95%CI 1.03-1.22). The strongest risk estimates were for sarcoidosis (OR 1.97, 95%CI 1.22-3.19), followed by systemic lupus erythematosus (1.86, 1.38-2.52) and psoriasis (1.31, 1.08-1.58). Stratified by sex, only women showed significant associations for systemic lupus erythematosus (OR 2.05, 95%CI 1.51-2.78) and men with psoriasis (1.72, 1.25-2.35) and polymyalgia rheumatica (0.33, 0.12-0.89). Conclusion: To date, this is the largest study of anal SCC exploring its association with autoimmunity, especially in this understudied old population. We report a weak to moderately increased risk of certain autoimmune diseases with anal SCC. Some associations differed by sex. Impact/Significance: Understanding the mechanism by which autoimmune diseases increase cancer anal cancer risk may guide better prevention and treatment strategies. Given the rarity of these conditions and their moderate associations with anal cancer, clinical diagnosis of autoimmune diseases cannot explain the rising trend in anal cancer. Future studies are warranted in addressing the underdiagnosis of these autoimmune conditions to better quantify the burden.

Citation Format: Minkyo Song, Eric A. Engels, Megan A. Clarke, Aimée R. Kreimer, Meredith S. Shiels. Autoimmune disease and the risk of anal cancer in the U.S. elderly population [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Aging and Cancer; 2022 Nov 17-20; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;83(2 Suppl_1):Abstract nr B008.

Cancer risk associated with cytomegalovirus infection among solid organ transplant recipients in the United States

BACKGROUND

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is among the most common viral infections after solid organ transplantation (SOT). Associations of CMV with cancer risk among SOT recipients have been incompletely evaluated.

METHODS

The authors used linked data from the US SOT registry and 32 cancer registries. Poisson regression was used to compare cancer incidence across CMV risk groups based on donor (D) and recipient (R) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus: high risk (R-negative/D-positive), moderate risk (R-positive), and low risk (R-negative/D-negative).

RESULTS

In total, 247,318 SOT recipients were evaluated during 2000-2017 (R-negative/D-positive, 20.3%; R-positive, 62.9%; R-negative/D-negative, 16.8%). CMV-seropositive recipients were older, more racially/ethnically diverse, and had lower socioeconomic status than CMV-seronegative recipients. Compared with R-negative/D-negative recipients, recipients in the R-negative/D-positive and R-positive groups had a lower incidence of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL; R-negative/D-positive: adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.91; R-positive: aIRR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.69-1.00). CMV serostatus modified the association between Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status and DLBCL (p = .0006): DLBCL incidence was increased for EBV R-negative/D-positive recipients (aIRR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.50-7.95) among CMV R-negative/D-negative recipients but not among the other CMV risk groups. Compared with recipients who were CMV R-negative/D-negative, those who were R-negative/D-positive had a lower incidence of small intestine cancer (aIRR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.09-0.63), and R-positive recipients had a higher incidence of lung cancer (aIRR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.05-1.46). CMV status was not associated with risk for other cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

CMV status was not associated with risk for most cancers among SOT recipients. The inverse association with DLBCL may reflect the protective effects of CMV prophylaxis or treatment with off-target efficacy against EBV infection (the major cause of lymphoma in SOT recipients).

Immune-related conditions and cancer-specific mortality among older adults with cancer in the United States

Immunity may play a role in preventing cancer progression. We studied associations of immune-related conditions with cancer-specific mortality among older adults in the United States. We evaluated 1 229 443 patients diagnosed with 20 common cancer types (age 67-99, years 1993-2013) using Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare data. With Medicare claims, we ascertained immune-related medical conditions diagnosed before cancer diagnosis (4 immunosuppressive conditions [n = 3380 affected cases], 32 autoimmune conditions [n = 155 766], 3 allergic conditions [n = 101 366]). For each cancer site, we estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancer-specific mortality associated with each condition, applying a Bonferroni cutoff for significance (P < 5.1 × 10-5 ). Bayesian metaanalysis methods were used to detect patterns across groups of conditions and cancers. We observed 21 associations with cancer-specific mortality at the Bonferroni threshold. Increased cancer-specific mortality was observed with rheumatoid arthritis for patients with melanoma (aHR 1.51, 95% CI 1.31-1.75) and breast cancer (1.24, 1.15-1.33)), and with hemolytic anemia for bladder cancer (2.54, 1.68-3.82). Significant inverse associations with cancer-specific mortality were observed for allergic rhinitis (range of aHRs: 0.84-0.94) and asthma (0.83-0.95) for cancers of the lung, breast, and prostate. Cancer-specific mortality was nominally elevated in patients with immunosuppressive conditions for eight cancer types (aHR range: 1.27-2.36; P-value range: 7.5 × 10-5 to 3.1 × 10-2 ) and was strongly associated with grouped immunosuppressive conditions using Bayesian metaanalyses methods. For older patients with several cancer types, certain immunosuppressive and autoimmune conditions were associated with increased cancer-specific mortality. In contrast, inverse associations with allergic conditions may reflect enhanced immune control of cancer.

Trends and risk of lung cancer among people living with HIV in the USA: a population-based registry linkage study

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer is a common cancer in people living with HIV, but the risk of cancer in this group has not been investigated for over a decade. We investigated trends in relative and absolute risk of lung cancer among people living with HIV of various age groups in the USA.

METHODS

In this population-based registry linkage study, we used 2001-16 data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match study, which links data from HIV and cancer registries from 13 regions in the USA. We included non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic individuals living with HIV aged 20-89 years in our study population. Average annual percentage changes in lung cancer rates were estimated with multivariable Poisson regression, and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) and excess absolute risks were estimated comparing people living with HIV with the general US population. We used non-parametric cumulative incidence curves to estimate the 5-year cumulative incidence of lung cancer and two AIDS-defining cancers (non-Hodgkin lymphoma and Kaposi sarcoma).

FINDINGS

There were 3426 lung cancers in 4 310 304 person-years of follow-up in our study population. Age-standardised lung cancer incidence rates in people living with HIV declined by 6% per year (95% CI -7 to -5) during 2001-16, with greater declines in the 20-29 age group (-11%, -16 to 6) than in the older age groups (eg, -3% [-6 to 1] in those aged 70-89 years). During 2013-16, the SIR of lung cancer in people living with HIV was 2·01 (95% CI 1·52 to 2·61) in those aged 40-49 years, and 1·31 (1·12 to 1·52) in those aged 60-69 years, whereas the excess absolute risk among people living with HIV was 11·87 (3·95 to 21·89) per 100 000 person-years for those aged 40-49 years and 48·23 (6·88 to 95·47) per 100 000 person-years for those aged 60-69 years. Beginning in 2011, the 5-year cumulative incidence for lung cancer (1·36%, 95% CI 1·17 to 1·53) surpassed that of Kaposi sarcoma (0·12%, 0·06 to 0·17) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (0·45%, 0·35 to 0·56) for people living with HIV aged 60-69 years.

INTERPRETATION

Between 2001 and 2016, the risk of lung cancer decreased for people living with HIV aged 20-69 years, but remained substantially elevated compared with the general population, probably due to a combination of smoking and immunosuppression. For people living with HIV aged 60 years and older, the risk of lung cancer exceeds that of two of the most common AIDS-defining cancers, highlighting the importance of lung cancer among the growing older population of people living with HIV.

FUNDING

Intramural Research Program of the US National Cancer Institute.

Cancer risk in living kidney donors

Living kidney donors are screened for transmissible diseases including cancer. Outcomes following donation are excellent, but concern exists regarding development of chronic kidney disease, and cancer risk is unknown. We used linked transplant and cancer registry data to identify incident cancers among 84,357 kidney donors in the United States (1995-2017). We compared risk with the general population using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). For selected cancers, we used Poisson regression to compare donors with 47,451 Adventist Health Study 2 (AHS-2) participants, who typically have healthy lifestyles. During follow-up, 2843 cancers were diagnosed in donors, representing an overall deficit (SIR 0.79, 95%CI 0.76-0.82). None of 46 specified cancer sites occurred in excess relative to the general population, and 15 showed significant deficits (SIR < 1.00). Compared with AHS-2 participants, donors had similar incidence of liver cancer, melanoma, breast cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma but, starting 7 years after donation, elevated incidence of colorectal cancer (adjusted incidence rate ratio 2.07, 95%CI 1.54-2.79) and kidney cancer (2.97, 1.58-5.58, accounting for the presence of a single kidney in donors). Elevated kidney cancer incidence may reflect adverse processes in donors' remaining kidney. Nonetheless, cancer risk is lower than in the general population, suggesting that enhanced screening is unnecessary.

Years of life lost to cancer among the United States HIV population, 2006-2015

OBJECTIVES

We estimated years of life lost (YLLs) to all causes of death and YLL lost to cancer among persons with HIV (PWH) in the United States.

DESIGN

Linked HIV and cancer registry data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study were used to identify incident cancers and deaths among PWH in 11 regions of the United States during 2006-2015.

METHODS

Mean YLL (MYLL) to all causes of death and MYLL to cancer during 2006-2015 were derived from the restricted mean survival estimated from Cox proportional hazards regression models. MYLLs were then upweighted to the national population of PWH to obtain all-cause total YLL (TYLL) and cancer-related TYLL in the United Staets during 2006-2015.

RESULTS

Among 466 234 PWH in the study population, 25 772 (5.5%) developed cancer during 2006-2015. Nationally, an estimated 134 986 years of life were lost to cancer of all types during 2006-2015 among PWH, representing 9.6% of TYLL to all causes. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), Kaposi sarcoma, anal cancer, and lung cancer were the four largest cancer contributors (45% of TYLL to cancer). The largest fraction of TYLL occurred among back PWH, MSM, and PWH aged 40-59 years old.

CONCLUSION

PWH have higher mortality rates after developing cancer. NHL, Kaposi sarcoma and anal and lung cancers were large contributors to YLL to cancer in the United States population of PWH, highlighting opportunities to reduce cancer mortality through improved access to antiretroviral treatment, prevention, and screening.

Impact of HIV on Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Rates in the United States, 2001-2015

BACKGROUND

Incidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) has increased in the U.S. Persons living with HIV (PLWH) have an elevated risk of anal SCC, and changes in the number of anal SCCs among PLWH may have influenced general population trends.

METHODS

Data were obtained from a linkage of HIV and cancer registries in 12 U.S. regions. The proportion of anal SCCs occurring among PLWH was estimated by sex, age group and race and ethnicity. To assess the impact of anal SCCs among PLWH on general population trends, annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates including and excluding anal SCCs among PLWH were estimated.

RESULTS

Between 2001-2015, 14.5% of 16,110 anal SCC diagnoses occurred in PLWH. In 2013-2015, 33% of anal SCCs among men occurred in PLWH, but only 3% among women. The proportion of anal SCCs among PLWH was highest among 20-49-year-olds and Black and Hispanic individuals. General population anal SCC trends among men were strongly influenced by cases among PLWH: rates increased 4.6%/year [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4%, 8.0%] from 2001-2009 followed by a non-significant decline (APC: -2.7%/year [95%CI: -7.1, 2.0%]) from 2009-2015, but without anal SCCs among PLWH, rates were stable (APC: 0.7%, [95%CI: -0.8%-2.3%]). Anal SCC rates among women increased 3.8%/year (95%CI 3.2%-4.4%) during 2001-2012 and then declined non-significantly (APC=-3.8; 95%CI -6.9, -0.6), and anal SCCs among PLWH had little impact on these trends.

CONCLUSION

During 2001-2015, anal SCCs among PLWH contributed strongly to changes in incidence trends in the general U.S. population among men, but not women.

Spectrum of Nonkeratinocyte Skin Cancer Risk Among Solid Organ Transplant Recipients in the US

Importance

Nonkeratinocyte skin cancers are an important cause of morbidity and mortality for immunosuppressed solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs), but the spectrum of disease and risk factor characteristics are unknown.

Objective

To characterize the spectrum of disease and risk factors for common and rare nonkeratinocyte skin cancers in SOTRs.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cohort study included 444 497 SOTRs who underwent a transplant in the US between January 1, 1987, and December 31, 2017, using linked data from the national transplant registry and 32 cancer registries. Data analysis was conducted from April 1, 2021, to September 30, 2021.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were used to assess risk relative to the general population, and Poisson regression was used to evaluate risk factors.

Results

A total of 2380 nonkeratinocyte skin cancers were identified among 444 497 SOTRs (median age at transplant, 50 years; range, 0-96 years; 274 276 [61.7%] male; 272 241 [61.2%] non-Hispanic White). Melanoma was the most common cancer (1471 [61.8%]), followed by Merkel cell carcinoma (334 [14.0%]), Kaposi sarcoma (186 [7.8%]), sebaceous carcinoma (170 [7.1%]), and cutaneous lymphomas (108 [4.5%]). Risks were most strongly elevated for cancers associated with viruses, including Kaposi sarcoma (SIR, 20.5; 95% CI, 17.7-23.7), Merkel cell carcinoma (SIR, 16.2; 95% CI, 14.5-18.1), and extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (SIR, 44.3; 95% CI, 5.37-160). Risks were also significantly elevated for sebaceous carcinoma (SIR, 15.2; 95% CI, 13.0-17.7), anaplastic large cell lymphoma (SIR, 6.82; 95% CI, 4.53-9.85), and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (SIR, 5.17; 95% CI, 3.28-7.76). Several characteristics were independently associated with greater risk for multiple skin cancer types, including male sex, older age at transplant, factors associated with UV radiation exposure (non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity, living in an area with higher UV radiation exposure, and posttransplant diagnosis of keratinocyte carcinoma), and increasing time since transplantation. Treatment with mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors was associated with reduced melanoma incidence (incidence rate ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.57-0.98). A total of 847 skin cancers (39.4%) occurred on the head and neck.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study suggest that viruses, UV radiation exposure, and immunosuppression are associated with the development of skin cancer in SOTRs. Certain high-risk subgroups may benefit from increased skin surveillance, and treatment with mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors could be effective for melanoma chemoprevention in the transplant population.

Immune-Related Adverse Events After Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors for Melanoma Among Older Adults

Importance

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have improved survival in patients with advanced melanoma but can be associated with a spectrum of immune-related adverse events (AEs), including both autoimmune-related AEs and other immune-related inflammatory AEs. These associations have primarily been evaluated in clinical trials that include highly selected patients, with older adults often underrepresented.

Objective

To evaluate the association between use of ICIs and immune-related AEs (autoimmune and other immune related) among older patients with cutaneous melanoma.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A population-based cohort study was conducted from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2015. Data were analyzed from January 31 to May 31, 2021. With use of a linked database of Medicare claims and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program population-based cancer registries, patients of White race diagnosed with stages II-IV or unknown (American Joint Committee on Cancer, AJCC Cancer Staging Manual 6th edition) first primary cutaneous melanoma during 2011-2015, as reported to SEER, and followed up through December 31, 2015, were identified.

Exposures

Immune checkpoint inhibitors for treatment of melanoma.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The association between ICIs and immune-related AEs ascertained from Medicare claims data was estimated using multivariable Cox regression with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs and with cumulative incidence accounting for competing risk of death.

Results

The study included 4489 patients of White race with first primary melanoma (3002 men [66.9%]; median age, 74.9 [range, 66.0-84.9] years). During follow-up (median, 1.4 [range, 0-5.0] years), 1576 patients (35.1%) had an immune-related AE on a Medicare claim. Use of ICIs (reported for 418 patients) was associated with autoimmune-related AEs (HR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.6-4.0), including primary adrenal insufficiency (HR, 9.9; 95% CI, 4.5-21.5) and ulcerative colitis (HR, 8.6; 95% CI, 2.8-26.3). Immune checkpoint inhibitors also were associated with other immune-related AEs (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.8), including Cushing syndrome (HR, 11.8; 95% CI, 1.4-97.2), hyperthyroidism (HR, 6.3; 95% CI, 2.0-19.5), hypothyroidism (HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.4-6.1), hypopituitarism (HR, 19.8; 95% CI, 5.4-72.9), other pituitary gland disorders (HR, 6.0; 95% CI, 1.2-30.2), diarrhea (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.5-4.9), and sepsis or septicemia (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4-3.3). Most associations were pronounced within 6 months following the first ICI claim and comparable with or without a baseline history of autoimmune disease. The cumulative incidence at 6 months following the first ICI claim was 13.7% (95% CI, 9.7%-18.3%) for autoimmune-related AEs and 46.8% (95% CI, 40.7%-52.7%) for other immune-related AEs.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of older adults with melanoma, ICIs were associated with autoimmune-related AEs and other immune-related AEs. Although some findings were consistent with clinical trials of ICIs, others warrant further investigation. As ICI use continues to expand rapidly, ongoing investigation of the spectrum of immune-related AEs may optimize management of disease in patients.

Associations of Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Subsequent Cancers in a Population-Based Study of Older Adults in the United States

BACKGROUND

Cancer risk is elevated in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). A comprehensive investigation of cancer risk in older patients (≥66 years of age) is needed, because this understudied population is at high risk.

METHODS

We performed a case-control study using Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare data including 1 986 735 incident cancer cases (aged 66-99 years; diagnosed 1992-2015) and 200 000 controls matched by sex, age, race and ethnicity, and selection year. IBD was identified by ulcerative colitis (UC) or Crohn's disease (CD) diagnosis codes. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. For colorectal cancers, we further adjusted for screening rates. We assessed confounding by medication exposure among patients with prescription drug coverage.

RESULTS

IBD, CD, and UC were present in 0.8%, 0.3%, and 0.5% in both cancer cases and non-cancer controls. Of 51 cancers examined, IBD was statistically significantly associated with cancers of the small intestine (OR = 2.55, 95% CI = 2.15 to 3.01), intrahepatic (OR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.47 to 2.51) and extrahepatic bile ducts (OR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.38 to 2.22), rectum (OR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.36 to 1.90), and colon (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.33). CD was associated with cancers of the small intestine (OR = 4.55, 95% CI = 3.65 to 5.67), and UC was associated with cancers of the intrahepatic bile ducts (OR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.34 to 2.61), rectum (OR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.47 to 2.20), and colon (OR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.14 to 1.43). After adjusting for medication exposure, IBD was not statistically significantly associated with lung cancer, melanoma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and myelodysplastic syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large study among older adults (≥66 years of age), IBD was positively associated with gastrointestinal cancers. Associations with extraintestinal cancers may reflect the effect of immunosuppressive medications.

Predicted Cure and Survival Among Transplant Recipients With a Previous Cancer Diagnosis

PURPOSE

A previous cancer diagnosis is a negative consideration in evaluating patients for possible solid organ transplantation. Statistical models may improve selection of patients with cancer evaluated for transplantation.

METHODS

We fitted statistical cure models for patients with cancer in the US general population using data from 13 cancer registries. Patients subsequently undergoing solid organ transplantation were identified through the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. We estimated cure probabilities at diagnosis (for all patients with cancer) and transplantation (transplanted patients). We used Cox regression to assess associations of cure probability at transplantation with subsequent cancer-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Among 10,524,326 patients with 17 cancer types in the general population, the median cure probability at diagnosis was 62%. Of these patients, 5,425 (0.05%) subsequently underwent solid organ transplantation and their median cure probability at transplantation was 94% (interquartile range, 86%-98%). Compared with the tertile of transplanted patients with highest cure probability, those in the lowest tertile more frequently had lung or breast cancers and less frequently colorectal, testicular, or thyroid cancers; more frequently had advanced-stage cancer; were older (median 57 v 51 years); and were transplanted sooner after cancer diagnosis (median 3.6 v 8.6 years). Patients in the low-cure probability tertile had increased cancer-specific mortality after transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.48 to 2.93; v the high tertile), whereas those in the middle tertile did not differ.

CONCLUSION

Patients with cancer who underwent solid organ transplantation exhibited high cure probabilities, reflecting selection on the basis of existing guidelines and clinical judgment. Nonetheless, there was a range of cure probabilities among transplanted patients and low probability predicted increased cancer-specific mortality after transplantation. Cure probabilities may facilitate guideline development and evaluating individual patients for transplantation.

Metagenomic analysis to identify novel infectious agents in systemic anaplastic large cell lymphoma

Systemic anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL) is a rare CD30-expressing T-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Risk of systemic ALCL is highly increased among immunosuppressed individuals. Because risk of cancers associated with viruses is increased with immunosuppression, we conducted a metagenomic analysis of systemic ALCL to determine whether a known or novel pathogen is associated with this malignancy. Total RNA was extracted and sequenced from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor specimens from 19 systemic ALCL cases (including one case from an immunosuppressed individual with human immunodeficiency virus infection), 3 Epstein-Barr virus positive diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCLs) occurring in solid organ transplant recipients (positive controls), and 3 breast cancers (negative controls). We used a pipeline based on the Genome Analysis Toolkit (GATK)-PathSeq algorithm to subtract out human RNA reads and map the remaining RNA reads to microbes. No microbial association with ALCL was identified, but we found Epstein-Barr virus in the DLBCL positive controls and determined the breast cancers to be negative. In conclusion, we did not find a pathogen associated with systemic ALCL, but because we analyzed only one ALCL tumor from an immunosuppressed person, we cannot exclude the possibility that a pathogen is associated with some cases that arise in the setting of immunosuppression.

Post-Transplant Lymphoproliferative Disorders 2nd Edition, Vikas R. Dharnidharka, Michael Green, Steven A. Webber, Ralf Ulrich Trappe (ed.), Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2021, XIII, 314 pages

Post-Transplant Lymphoproliferative Disorders (PTLDs, second edition) covers many research and clinical aspects of this serious neoplastic complication of transplantation. The first edition was published in 2010, and the editors have updated their textbook with results from recent research, including new clinical data on PTLD management. The editors have also now added a section on PTLD in hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients. The textbook is targeted to oncologists and transplant clinicians, although there is much material that falls outside a strictly clinical scope and is relevant to researchers including laboratory scientists and epidemiologists.

Life-years lost due to cancer among solid organ transplant recipients in the United States, 1987 to 2014

BACKGROUND

Solid organ transplant recipients have an elevated risk of cancer. Quantifying the life-years lost (LYL) due to cancer provides a complementary view of the burden of cancer distinct from other metrics and may identify subgroups of transplant recipients who are most affected.

METHODS

Linked transplant and cancer registry data were used to identify incident cancers and deaths among solid organ transplant recipients in the United States (1987-2014). Data on LYL due to cancer within 10 years posttransplant were derived using mean survival estimates from Cox models.

RESULTS

Among 221,962 transplant recipients, 13,074 (5.9%) developed cancer within 10 years of transplantation. During this period, the mean LYL due to cancer were 0.16 years per transplant recipient and 2.7 years per cancer case. Cancer was responsible for a loss of 1.9% of the total life-years expected in the absence of cancer in this population. Lung recipients had the highest proportion of total LYL due to cancer (0.45%) followed by heart recipients (0.29%). LYL due to cancer increased with age, from 0.5% among those aged birth to 34 years at transplant to 3.2% among those aged 50 years and older. Among recipients overall, lung cancer was the largest contributor, accounting for 24% of all LYL due to cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma had the next highest contribution (15%).

CONCLUSIONS

Transplant recipients have a shortened lifespan after developing cancer. Lung cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma contribute strongly to LYL due to cancer within the first 10 years after transplant, highlighting opportunities to reduce cancer mortality through prevention and screening.

Kaposi Sarcoma Incidence, Burden, and Prevalence in United States People with HIV, 2000-2015

BACKGROUND

The introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has led to a significant reduction in Kaposi sarcoma (KS) incidence among people with HIV (PWH). However, it is unclear if incidence has declined similarly across key demographic and HIV transmission groups and the annual number of incident and prevalent KS cases remains unquantified.

METHODS

Using population-based registry linkage data, we evaluated temporal trends in KS incidence using adjusted Poisson regression. Incidence and prevalence estimates were applied to CDC HIV surveillance data, to obtain the number of incident (2008-2015) and prevalent (2015) cases in the United States.

RESULTS

Among PWH, KS rates were elevated 521-fold [95% confidence intervals (CI), 498-536] compared with the general population and declined from 109 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 to 47 per 100,000 person-years in 2015, at an annual percentage change of -6%. Rates declined substantially (P trend < 0.005) across all demographic and HIV transmission groups. Of the 5,306 new cases estimated between 2008 and 2015, 89% occurred among men who have sex with men. At the end of 2015, 1,904 PWH (0.20%) had been diagnosed with KS in the previous 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

A consistent gradual decline in KS incidence has occurred among PWH in the United States during the current cART era. This decrease is uniform across key demographic and HIV transmission groups, though rates remain elevated relative to the general population.

IMPACT

Continued efforts to control HIV through early cART initiation and retention in care need to be maintained and possibly expanded to sustain declines.

Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors and the Risk of Cancer among Older Americans with Rheumatoid Arthritis

BACKGROUND

TNF inhibitors (TNFi) effectively treat rheumatoid arthritis but may increase patient risk of some malignancies, particularly lymphomas or skin cancers.

METHODS

We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data to conduct a case-control study in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (2007-2015). Cases were individuals with a first cancer diagnosed in SEER registries (ages 66-99, 22 cancer sites, N = 10,263). Skin cancer cases [nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC, N = 501), basal cell carcinoma (BCC, N = 161), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC, N = 150)] and cancer-free controls (N = 30,475) were selected from Medicare beneficiaries residing in SEER areas. Cases and controls had prior Medicare claims-based evidence for rheumatoid arthritis, and TNFi exposure was ascertained from part B and part D claims. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR).

RESULTS

TNFi exposure was present in 16.2% of controls and 12.8% to 33.7% of cancer cases, varying by site. TNFi use was associated with increased risk of NMSC overall (aOR 1.32, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.63), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) overall (1.28, 1.06-1.56) and, specifically, follicular lymphoma (2.63, 1.63-4.24). TNFi exposure was not associated with other SEER cancer sites, BCC or SCC specifically, or other common NHL subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Among older adults with rheumatoid arthritis, TNFi exposure was associated with elevated risk of NMSC and NHL, driven specifically by follicular lymphoma. Exposure was not associated with increased risk for other cancer sites.

IMPACT

Our results support a role for TNF in lymphomagenesis. Given the association with NMSC, patients initiating TNFi therapy may benefit from skin cancer screening and sun protection measures.

In-utero exposure to zidovudine-containing antiretroviral therapy and clonal hematopoiesis in HIV-exposed uninfected newborns

OBJECTIVE

Zidovudine (ZDV) has been extensively used in pregnant women to prevent vertical transmission of HIV but few studies have evaluated potential mutagenic effects of ZDV during fetal development.

DESIGN

Our study investigated clonal hematopoiesis in HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) newborns, 94 of whom were ZDV-exposed and 91 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-unexposed and matched for potential confounding factors.

METHODS

Utilizing high depth sequencing and genotyping arrays, we comprehensively examined blood samples collected during the first week after birth for potential clonal hematopoiesis associated with fetal ZDV exposure, including clonal single nucleotide variants (SNVs), small insertions and deletions (indels), and large structural copy number or copy neutral alterations.

RESULTS

We observed no statistically significant difference in the number of SNVs and indels per person in ZDV-exposed children (adjusted ratio [95% confidence interval, CI] for expected number of mutations = 0.79 [0.50--1.22], P = 0.3), and no difference in the number of large structural alterations. Mutations in common clonal hematopoiesis driver genes were not found in the study population. Mutational signature analyses on SNVs detected no novel signatures unique to the ZDV-exposed children and the mutational profiles were similar between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that clonal hematopoiesis at levels detectable in our study is not strongly influenced by in-utero ZDV exposure; however, additional follow-up studies are needed to further evaluate the safety and potential long-term impacts of in-utero ZDV exposure in HEU children as well as better investigate genomic aberrations occurring late in pregnancy.

Solid Organ Transplantation and Survival among Individuals with a History of Cancer

BACKGROUND

The success of immunotherapy highlights a possible role for immunity in controlling cancer during remission for patients with cancer in the general population. A prior cancer diagnosis is common among solid organ transplant candidates, and immunosuppressive medications administered to transplant recipients may increase recurrence risk.

METHODS

Using linked data from the United States solid organ transplant registry and 13 cancer registries, we compared overall and cancer-specific survival among patients with cancer who did versus did not receive subsequent transplantation. We used Cox regression in cohort and matched analyses, controlling for demographic factors, cancer stage, and time since cancer diagnosis.

RESULTS

The study included 10,524,326 patients with cancer, with 17 cancer types; 5,425 (0.05%) subsequently underwent solid organ transplantation. The median time from cancer diagnosis to transplantation was 5.7 years. Transplantation was associated with reduced overall survival for most cancers, especially cervical, testicular, and thyroid cancers [adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for overall mortality, 3.43-4.88]. In contrast, transplantation was not associated with decreased cancer-specific survival for any cancer site, and we observed inverse associations for patients with breast cancer (aHRs for cancer-specific mortality, 0.65-0.67), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (0.50-0.51), and myeloma (0.39-0.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Among U.S. patients with cancer, subsequent organ transplantation was associated with reduced overall survival, likely due to end-stage organ disease and transplant-related complications. However, we did not observe adverse associations with cancer-specific survival, partly reflecting careful candidate selection.

IMPACT

These results do not demonstrate a detrimental effect of immunosuppression on cancer-specific survival and support current management strategies for transplant candidates with previous cancer diagnoses.

Changes in cancer incidence and outcomes among kidney transplant recipients in the United States over a thirty-year period

Recipients of kidney transplants have elevated cancer risk compared with the general population. Improvements over time in transplant care and cancer treatment may have affected incidence and outcomes of cancer among recipients of kidney transplant. To evaluate this, we used linked United States transplant and cancer registry data to study 101,014 adult recipients of kidney transplants over three decades (1987-1996, 1997-2006, 2007-2016). Poisson regression was used to assess trends in incidence for cancer overall and seven common cancers. Associations of cancer with risk of death-censored graft failure (DCGF) and death with functioning graft (DWFG) were evaluated with Cox regression. We also estimated absolute risks of DCGF and graft failure following cancer for recipients transplanted in 2007-2016. There was no significant change in the incidence of cancer overall or for six common cancers in recipients across the 1987-2016 period. Only the incidence of prostate cancer significantly decreased across this period after multivariate adjustment. Among recipients of kidney transplants with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, there were significant declines over time in elevated risks for DCGF and DWFG but no significant changes for other combined cancers. For recipients transplanted in the most recent period (2007-2016), risks following cancer diagnosis remained high, with 38% experiencing DWFG and 14% graft failure within four years of diagnosis. Absolute risk of DWFG was especially high following lung cancer (78%), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (38%), melanoma (35%), and colorectal cancer (49%). Thus, across a 30-year period in the United States, there was no overall change in cancer incidence among recipients of kidney transplants. Despite improvements for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, cancer remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality.

Hematopoietic mosaic chromosomal alterations increase the risk for diverse types of infection

Age is the dominant risk factor for infectious diseases, but the mechanisms linking age to infectious disease risk are incompletely understood. Age-related mosaic chromosomal alterations (mCAs) detected from genotyping of blood-derived DNA, are structural somatic variants indicative of clonal hematopoiesis, and are associated with aberrant leukocyte cell counts, hematological malignancy, and mortality. Here, we show that mCAs predispose to diverse types of infections. We analyzed mCAs from 768,762 individuals without hematological cancer at the time of DNA acquisition across five biobanks. Expanded autosomal mCAs were associated with diverse incident infections (hazard ratio (HR) 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.15-1.36; P = 1.8 × 10-7), including sepsis (HR 2.68; 95% CI = 2.25-3.19; P = 3.1 × 10-28), pneumonia (HR 1.76; 95% CI = 1.53-2.03; P = 2.3 × 10-15), digestive system infections (HR 1.51; 95% CI = 1.32-1.73; P = 2.2 × 10-9) and genitourinary infections (HR 1.25; 95% CI = 1.11-1.41; P = 3.7 × 10-4). A genome-wide association study of expanded mCAs identified 63 loci, which were enriched at transcriptional regulatory sites for immune cells. These results suggest that mCAs are a marker of impaired immunity and confer increased predisposition to infections.

Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation and Risk of Cancer Among Persons Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus

BACKGROUND

Persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) experience a high burden of cancer. It remains unknown which cancer types are reduced in PLWH with earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

We evaluated AIDS-free, ART-naive PLWH during 1996-2014 from 22 cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PLWH were followed from first observed CD4 of 350-500 cells/µL (baseline) until incident cancer, death, lost-to-follow-up, or December 2014. Outcomes included 6 cancer groups and 5 individual cancers that were confirmed by chart review or cancer registry linkage. We evaluated the effect of earlier (in the first 6 months after baseline) versus deferred ART initiation on cancer risk. Marginal structural models were used with inverse probability weighting to account for time-dependent confounding and informative right-censoring, with weights informed by subject's age, sex, cohort, baseline year, race/ethnicity, HIV transmission risk, smoking, viral hepatitis, CD4, and AIDS diagnoses.

RESULTS

Protective results for earlier ART were found for any cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], .37-.86), AIDS-defining cancers (HR 0.23; 95% CI, .11-.49), any virus-related cancer (HR 0.30; 95% CI, .16-.54), Kaposi sarcoma (HR 0.25; 95% CI, .10-.61), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (HR 0.22; 95% CI, .06-.73). By 15 years, there was also an observed reduced risk with earlier ART for virus-related NADCs (0.6% vs 2.3%; adjusted risk difference -1.6; 95% CI, -2.8, -.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Earlier ART initiation has potential to reduce the burden of virus-related cancers in PLWH but not non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) without known or suspected viral etiology.

Deaths Attributable to Cancer in the US Human Immunodeficiency Virus Population During 2001-2015

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced mortality among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but cancer remains an important cause of death. We characterized cancer-attributable mortality in the HIV population during 2001-2015.

METHODS

We used data from population-based HIV and cancer registries in the United States (US). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) associating cancer diagnoses with overall mortality, we could perhaps cut these words to accommodate the word limit. However readers will probably want to know what statistical adjustments were made to the model. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using these HRs and the proportion of deaths preceded by cancer. Cancer-specific PAFs and cancer-attributable mortality rates were calculated for demographic subgroups, AIDS-defining cancers (Kaposi sarcoma [KS], non-Hodgkin lymphoma [NHL], cervical cancer), and non-AIDS-defining cancers.

RESULTS

Cancer-attributable mortality was 386.9 per 100 000 person-years, with 9.2% and 5.0% of deaths attributed to non-AIDS-defining and AIDS-defining cancers, respectively. Leading cancer-attributable deaths were from NHL (3.5%), lung cancer (2.4%), KS (1.3%), liver cancer (1.1%), and anal cancer (0.6%). Overall, cancer-attributable mortality declined from 484.0 per 100 000 person-years during 2001-2005 to 313.6 per 100 000 person-years during 2011-2015, while the PAF increased from 12.6% to 17.1%; the PAF for non-AIDS-defining cancers increased from 7.2% to 11.8% during 2011-2015. Cancer-attributable mortality was highest among those aged ≥60 years (952.2 per 100 000 person-years), with 19.0% of deaths attributed to non-AIDS-defining cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cancer-attributable mortality has declined over time, it remains high and represents a growing fraction of deaths in the US HIV population. Mortality from non-AIDS-defining cancers may rise as the HIV population ages. ART access, early cancer detection, and improved cancer treatment are priorities for reducing cancer-attributable mortality.

Oral Leukoplakia and Risk of Progression to Oral Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The optimal clinical management of oral precancer remains uncertain. We investigated the natural history of oral leukoplakia, the most common oral precancerous lesion, to estimate the relative and absolute risks of progression to cancer, the predictive accuracy of a clinician's decision to biopsy a leukoplakia vis-à-vis progression, and histopathologic predictors of progression.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study (1996-2012) of patients with oral leukoplakia (n = 4886), identified using electronic medical records within Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Among patients with leukoplakia who received a biopsy (n = 1888), we conducted a case-cohort study to investigate histopathologic predictors of progression. Analyses included indirect standardization and unweighted or weighted Cox regression.

RESULTS

Compared with the overall Kaiser Permanente Northern California population, oral cancer incidence was substantially elevated in oral leukoplakia patients (standardized incidence ratio = 40.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 34.8 to 47.6; n = 161 cancers over 22 582 person-years). Biopsied leukoplakias had a higher oral cancer risk compared with those that were not biopsied (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.73 to 3.28). However, to identify a prevalent or incident oral cancer, the biopsy decision had low sensitivity (59.6%), low specificity (62.1%), and moderate positive-predictive value (5.1%). Risk of progression to oral cancer statistically significantly increased with the grade of dysplasia; 5-year competing risk-adjusted absolute risks were: leukoplakia overall = 3.3%, 95% CI = 2.7% to 3.9%; no dysplasia = 2.2%, 95% CI = 1.5% to 3.1%; mild-dysplasia = 11.9%, 95% CI = 7.1% to 18.1%; moderate-dysplasia = 8.7%, 95% CI = 3.2% to 17.9%; and severe dysplasia = 32.2%, 95% CI = 8.1%-60.0%. Yet 39.6% of cancers arose from biopsied leukoplakias without dysplasia.

CONCLUSIONS

The modest accuracy of the decision to biopsy a leukoplakia vis-à-vis presence or eventual development of oral cancer highlights the need for routine biopsy of all leukoplakias regardless of visual or clinical impression. Leukoplakia patients, particularly those with dysplasia, need to be closely monitored for signs of early cancer.