Predicting COPD 1-year mortality using prognostic predictors routinely measured in primary care

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor.

METHODS

We identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO).

RESULTS

Fifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60).

CONCLUSION

The BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care.

Aortic Pulse Wave Velocity as a Measure of Cardiovascular Risk in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Two-Year Follow-Up Data from the ARCADE Study

Background and objectives: Cardiovascular (CV) disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Patients with COPD have increased arterial stiffness, which may predict future CV risk. However, the development of arterial stiffness in COPD has not yet been studied prospectively. The Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE) is a longitudinal study of CV risk and other comorbidities in COPD. The aims of this analysis were to explore factors associated with aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV) at baseline and to describe the progression of aPWV in patients with COPD and comparators over two years. Materials and methods: At baseline, 520 patients with COPD (confirmed by spirometry) and 150 comparators free from respiratory disease were assessed for body composition, blood pressure, aPWV, noninvasive measures of cardiac output, inflammatory biomarkers, and exercise capacity. This was repeated after two years, and mortality cases and causes were also recorded. Results: At baseline, aPWV was greater in COPD patients 9.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.7–10) versus comparators 8.7 (8.5–9.1) m/s (p < 0.01) after adjustments for age, mean arterial pressure (MAP), and heart rate. Mean blood pressure was 98 ± 11 in COPD patients and 95 ± 10 mmHg in comparators at baseline (p = 0.004). After two years, 301 patients and 105 comparators were fully reassessed. The mean (95% CI) aPWV increased similarly in patients 0.44 (0.25–0.63) and comparators 0.46 (0.23–0.69) m/s, without a change in blood pressure. At the two-year follow-up, there were 29 (6%) deaths in COPD patients, with the majority due to respiratory causes, with an overall dropout of 43% of patients with COPD and 30% of comparators. Conclusions: This was the first large longitudinal study of CV risk in COPD patients, and we confirmed greater aPWV in COPD patients than comparators after adjustments for confounding factors. After two years, patients and comparators had a similar increase of almost 0.5 m/s aPWV.

Feature-weighted survival learning machine for COPD failure prediction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) yields a high rate of failures such as hospital readmission and death in the United States, Canada and worldwide. COPD failure imposes a significant social and economic burden on society, and predicting such failure is crucial to early intervention and decision-making, making this a very important research issue. Current analysis methods address all risk factors in medical records indiscriminately and therefore generally suffer from ineffectiveness in real applications, mainly because many of these factors relate weakly to prediction. Numerous studies have been done on selecting factors for survival analysis, but their inherent shortcomings render these methods inapplicable for failure prediction in the context of unknown and intricate correlation patterns among risk factors. These difficulties have prompted us to design a new Cox-based learning machine that embeds the feature weighting technique into failure prediction. In order to improve predictive accuracy, we propose two weighting criteria to maximize the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and the concordance index (C-index), respectively. At the same time, we perform a Dirichlet-based regularization on weights, making differences between factor relevance clearly visible while maintaining the model's high predictive ability. The experimental results on real-life COPD data collected from patients hospitalized at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Sherbrooke (CHUS) demonstrate the effectiveness of our learning machine and its great promise in clinical applications.

Breathlessness and incidence of COPD, cardiac events and all-cause mortality: A 44-year follow-up from middle age throughout life

Background

Breathlessness is prevalent in the general population and may be associated with adverse health outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate the association of breathlessness with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) events, cardiac events and all-cause mortality from middle-age throughout life.

Methods

Breathlessness was measured in 699, 55-year old men residing in Malmö, Sweden using modified Medical Research Council (mMRC). COPD events (hospitalisation, death or diagnosis) cardiac events and all-cause mortality was assessed using The Swedish Causes of Death Register and Hospital Discharge Register. Data was analyzed using Cox- and competing risks (Fine-Gray) regression analysis.

Results

695 (99%) of 699 participants died and four emigrated during follow up. Eighty-seven (12%) had mMRC = 1 and 19 (3%) had mMRC≥2. Breathlessness was associated with COPD events; adjusted Sub-Hazard Ratio 2.1 (95% CI, 1.2–3.6) for mMRC = 1 and 7.5 (2.6–21.7) for mMRC ≥ 2 but not associated with cardiac events when adjusting for competing events and confounding. Breathlessness was associated increased all- cause mortality (Hazard Ratios of 1.4 (1.1–1.7) (mMRC = 1) and 3.4 (2.1–5.6) (mMRC ≥ 2)).

Conclusion

Breathlessness is associated with increased risk of COPD events and increase in all-cause mortality from age 55 until death.

Standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Poland from 1999 to 2014

Purpose

The aim of the study is to analyze the standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Poland from 1999 to 2014 by sex and place of residence.

Methods

The number of deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (J40 –J44 and J47 according to ICD-10) over the period 1999 to 2014 was analyzed based on data obtained from the Central Statistical Office in Poland. Standard expected years of life lost due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were calculated by sex and place of residence according to the living population (SEYLL_p) and the number of deaths caused by the disease (SEYLL_d). Changes in the calculated measures were evaluated using joinpoint models. The annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were also calculated.

Results

The study revealed that COPD contributed to 1.8% of the total number of deaths which occurred between 1999 and 2014. The greatest decrease in the analyzed measures was observed among males from rural areas (p<0.05) (SEYLL: AAPC = -1.6; 95%CI: -3.0;-0.2; SEYLL_p: AAPC = -2.0; 95%CI: -3.4;-0.6; SEYLL_d: AAPC = -1.1; 95%CI: -1.2;-0.9). A statistically significant increase in the SEYLL and SEYLL_p indices was observed among female city dwellers (SEYLL: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI:0.7;4.0 and SEYLL_p: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI: 0.8;4.1).

Conclusions

All studied measures were higher in the male group than in the female group, regardless of the place of residence. A male who died of COPD in Poland in 2014 potentially lost 14.9 years of life, whereas a female lost 14.2 years.

Once daily long-acting beta2-agonists and long-acting muscarinic antagonists in a combined inhaler versus placebo for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a respiratory condition causing accumulation of mucus in the airways, cough, and breathlessness; the disease is progressive and is the fourth most common cause of death worldwide. Current treatment strategies for COPD are multi-modal and aim to reduce morbidity and mortality and increase patients' quality of life by slowing disease progression and preventing exacerbations. Fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) of a long-acting beta₂-agonist (LABA) plus a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) delivered via a single inhaler are approved by regulatory authorities in the USA, Europe, and Japan for the treatment of COPD. Several LABA/LAMA FDCs are available and recent meta-analyses have clarified their utility versus their mono-components in COPD. Evaluation of the efficacy and safety of once-daily LABA/LAMA FDCs versus placebo will facilitate the comparison of different FDCs in future network meta-analyses.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the evidence for once-daily LABA/LAMA combinations (delivered in a single inhaler) versus placebo on clinically meaningful outcomes in patients with stable COPD.

SEARCH METHODS

We identified trials from Cochrane Airways' Specialised Register (CASR) and also conducted a search of the US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register ClinicalTrials.gov (www.clinicaltrials.gov) and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (apps.who.int/trialsearch). We searched CASR and trial registries from their inception to 3 December 2018; we imposed no restriction on language of publication.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included parallel-group and cross-over randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing once-daily LABA/LAMA FDC versus placebo. We included studies reported as full-text, those published as abstract only, and unpublished data. We excluded very short-term trials with a duration of less than 3 weeks. We included adults (≥ 40 years old) with a diagnosis of stable COPD. We included studies that allowed participants to continue using their ICS during the trial as long as the ICS was not part of the randomised treatment.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened the search results to determine included studies, extracted data on prespecified outcomes of interest, and assessed the risk of bias of included studies; we resolved disagreements by discussion with a third review author. Where possible, we used a random-effects model to meta-analyse extracted data. We rated all outcomes using the GRADE (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) system and presented results in 'Summary of findings' tables.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified and included 22 RCTs randomly assigning 8641 people with COPD to either once-daily LABA/LAMA FDC (6252 participants) or placebo (3819 participants); nine studies had a cross-over design. Studies had a duration of between three and 52 weeks (median 12 weeks). The mean age of participants across the included studies ranged from 59 to 65 years and in 21 of 22 studies, participants had GOLD stage II or III COPD. Concomitant inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use was permitted in all of the included studies (where stated); across the included studies, between 28% to 58% of participants were using ICS at baseline. Six studies evaluated the once-daily combination of IND/GLY (110/50 μg), seven studies evaluated TIO/OLO (2.5/5 or 5/5 μg), eight studies evaluated UMEC/VI (62.5/5, 125/25 or 500/25 μg) and one study evaluated ACD/FOR (200/6, 200/12 or 200/18 μg); all LABA/LAMA combinations were compared with placebo.The risk of bias was generally considered to be low or unknown (insufficient detail provided), with only one study per domain considered to have a high risk of bias except for the domain 'other bias' which was determined to be at high risk of bias in four studies (in three studies, disease severity was greater at baseline in participants receiving LABA/LAMA compared with participants receiving placebo, which would be expected to shift the treatment effect in favour of placebo).Compared to the placebo, the pooled results for the primary outcomes for the once-daily LABA/LAMA arm were as follows: all-cause mortality, OR 1.88 (95% CI 0.81 to 4.36, low-certainty evidence); all-cause serious adverse events (SAEs), OR 1.06 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.28, high-certainty evidence); acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD), OR 0.53 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.78, moderate-certainty evidence); adjusted St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score, MD -4.08 (95% CI -4.80 to -3.36, high-certainty evidence); proportion of SGRQ responders, OR 1.75 (95% CI 1.54 to 1.99). Compared with placebo, the pooled results for the secondary outcomes for the once-daily LABA/LAMA arm were as follows: adjusted trough forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), MD 0.20 L (95% CI 0.19 to 0.21, moderate-certainty evidence); adjusted peak FEV1, MD 0.31 L (95% CI 0.29 to 0.32, moderate-certainty evidence); and all-cause AEs, OR 0.95 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.04; high-certainty evidence). No studies reported data for the 6-minute walk test. The results were generally consistent across subgroups for different LABA/LAMA combinations and doses.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Compared with placebo, once-daily LABA/LAMA (either IND/GLY, UMEC/VI or TIO/OLO) via a combination inhaler is associated with a clinically significant improvement in lung function and health-related quality of life in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD; UMEC/VI appears to reduce the rate of exacerbations in this population. These conclusions are supported by moderate or high certainty evidence based on studies with an observation period of up to one year.

Neoantigens in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Lung Cancer: A Point of View

The goal of this manuscript is to explore the role of clinical proteomics for detecting mutations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer by mass spectrometry-based technology. COPD and lung cancer caused by smoke inhalation are most likely linked by challenging the immune system via partly shared pathways. Genome-wide association studies have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms which predispose an increased susceptibility to COPD and lung cancer. In lung cancer, this leads to coding mutations in the affected tissues, development of neoantigens, and different functionality and abundance of proteins in specific pathways. If a similar reasoning can also be applied in COPD will be discussed. The technology of mass spectrometry has developed into an advanced technology for proteome research detecting mutated peptides or proteins and finding relevant molecular mechanisms that will enable predicting the response to immunotherapy in COPD and lung cancer patients.

Breaking Barriers: Prospective Study of a Cohort of Advanced Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients To Describe Their Survival and End-of-Life Palliative Care Requirements

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Consensus has been reached on the need to integrate palliative care in the follow-up examinations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. We analyzed the survival from the initiation of follow-up by a palliative home care team (PHCT) and described the needs and end-of-life process.

SETTING AND DESIGN

This study was a prospective observational cohort study of advanced COPD patients referred to a PHCT. Sociodemographic variables, survival from the start date of follow-up using the Kaplan-Meier model, health resource consumption, perceived quality of life, main symptomatology, opioid use, and advanced care planning (ACP) were analyzed.

RESULTS

Sixty patients were included. The median survival was 8.3 months. Forty-two patients died at the end of the study (85% at home or in palliative care units). The most frequent cause of death was respiratory failure in 39 patients (93%), with 29 of these patients requiring sedation (69%). Dyspnea at rest, with an average of 5 (standard deviation [SD] 2) points, was the main symptom. Fifty-five patients (91%) required opioids for symptom control. The median score in the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire was 72 (SD 13). The mean number of visits by the home team was 7 (SD 6.5). The mean number of admissions during the monitoring period was 1.5 (SD 0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

The characteristics of the cohort appear suitable for a PHCT. The follow-up care provided by our multidisciplinary unit decreased the number of hospitalizations, favored the development of ACP, and enabled death at home or in palliative care units.

Validation of the BAP-65 score for prediction of in-hospital death or use of mechanical ventilation in patients presenting to the emergency department with an acute exacerbation of COPD: a retrospective multi-center study from the Italian Society of Emergency Medicine (SIMEU)

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPDE) frequently require hospitalizations, may necessitate of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and are associated with a remarkable in-hospital mortality. The BAP-65 score is a risk assessment model (RAM) based on simple variables, that has been proposed for the prediction of these adverse outcomes in patients with COPDE. If showed to be accurate, the BAP-65 RAM might be used to guide the patients management, in terms of destination and treatment. We conducted a retrospective, multicentre, chart-review study, on patients attending the ED for a COPDE during 2014. The aim of the study was the validation of the BAP-65 RAM for the prediction of in-hospital death or use of IMV (composite primary outcome). We assessed the discrimination and the prognostic performance of the BAP-65 RAM. We enrolled 2908 patients from 20 centres across Italy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 76 (11) years, and 38% of patients were female. The composite outcome occurred in 5.3% of patients. The AUROC of BAP-65 for the composite outcome was 0.64 (95%CI 0.59-0.68). The sensitivity of BAP-65 score ≥ 4 to predict in-hospital mortality was 44% (95% CI 34%-55%), the specificity was 84% (95% CI 82%-85%), the positive predictive value was 9% (95% CI 6%-12%), and the negative predictive value was 98% (95% CI 97%-98%). CONCLUSIONS: In patients attending Italian EDs with a COPDE, we found that the BAP-65 score did not have sufficient accuracy to stratify patients upon their risk of severe in-hospital outcomes.

Impact of Macrolide Antibiotics on Hospital Readmissions and Other Clinically Important Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients with Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Study

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To assess whether a macrolide-based antibiotic treatment strategy reduces in-hospital mortality, decreases hospital readmissions, or improves other clinically important outcomes compared with a non-macrolide antibiotic treatment strategy in critically ill patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).

DESIGN

Propensity score-matched pharmacoepidemiologic cohort study.

DATA SOURCE

Premier's Perspective Hospital Database.

PATIENTS

A total of 28,700 adults aged 40 years or older who were admitted to one of 566 United States intensive care units and had the primary diagnosis of AECOPD between January 2010 and December 2014 and received antibiotic treatment within 2 days of hospital admission were included. Patients were divided into macrolide (11,602 patients [40%]) or non-macrolide (17,098 patients [60%]) antibiotic treatment groups. Propensity score analysis successfully matched 8660 patients in each treatment group.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In the matched cohort, the macrolide treatment group was not associated with decreased hospital mortality after day 2 (3.0% vs 3.3%, p=0.28), intensive care unit length of stay (2 days vs 2 days, p=0.12), hospital length of stay (6 days vs 6 days, p=0.86), or length of assisted ventilation (3 days vs 3 days, p=0.71), compared with the non-macrolide treatment group. However, a macrolide-based antibiotic regimen was associated with an overall reduction in 30-day hospital readmissions (7.3% vs 8.8%, p<0.01), increased time to next all-cause (159 vs 130 days, p<0.01) or AECOPD (200 vs 175 days, p=0.03) readmission, and decreased hospital costs ($32,730 vs $34,021, p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

The results of this study suggest that inclusion of a macrolide antibiotic in the treatment regimen may have both acute and sustained benefits in critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit with an AECOPD, including reductions in hospital readmissions and improvements in time to next readmission.

REgistry-based randomized controlled trial of treatment and Duration and mortality in long-term OXygen therapy (REDOX) study protocol

OBJECTIVE

Long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) during 15 h/day or more prolongs survival in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and severe hypoxemia. No randomized controlled trial has evaluated the net effects (benefits or harms) from LTOT 24 h/day compared with 15 h/day or the effect in conditions other than COPD. We describe a multicenter, national, phase IV, non-superiority, registry-based, randomized controlled trial (R-RCT) of LTOT prescribed 24 h/day compared with 15 h/day. The primary endpoint is all-cause-mortality at 1 year. Secondary endpoints include cause-specific mortality, hospitalizations, health-related quality of life, symptoms, and outcomes in interstitial lung disease.

METHODS/DESIGN

Patients qualifying for LTOT are randomized to LTOT 24 h/day versus 15 h/day during 12 months using the Swedish Register for Respiratory Failure (Swedevox). Planned sample size in this pragmatic study is 2126 randomized patients. Clinical follow-up and concurrent treatments are according to routine clinical practice. Mortality, hospitalizations, and incident diseases are assessed using national Swedish registries with expected complete follow-up. Patient-reported outcomes are assessed using postal questionnaire at 3 and 12 months.

DISCUSSION

The R-RCT approach combines the advantages of a prospective randomized trial and large clinical national registries for enrollment, allocation, and data collection, with the aim of improving the evidence-based use of LTOT.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov , Title: REgistry-based Treatment Duration and Mortality in Long-term OXygen Therapy (REDOX); ID: NCT03441204.

National trends in diabetes mellitus hospitalization in Spain 1997-2010: Analysis of over 5.4 millions of admissions

AIMS

To analyze national trends in the rates of hospitalizations (all-cause and by principal discharge diagnosis) in total diabetic population of Spain.

METHODS

We carried out a nation-wide population-based study of all diabetic patients hospitalized between 1997 and 2010. All-cause hospitalizations, hospitalizations by principal discharge diagnosis, mean age, Charlson Comorbidity Index, readmission rates and length of hospital stay were examined. Annual rates adjusted for age and sex were analyzed and trends were calculated.

RESULTS

Over 14-years-period, all-cause hospitalizations of diabetic patients increased significantly, with an average annual percentage change of 2.5 (95%CI: 1.5-3.5; P_trend < 0.01). The greatest increase was observed in heart failure (5.4; 95%CI: 4.8-6.0; P_trend < 0.001), followed by neoplasms (4.9; 95%CI: 3.6-5.8; P_trend < 0.001), pneumonia (2.7; 95%CI: 2.0-4.0; P_trend < 0.001), stroke (2.4; 95%CI: 1.6-3.4; P_trend < 0.001), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.0; 95%CI: 1.4-3.4; P_trend < 0.001) and coronary artery disease (1.6; 95%CI: 1.1-2.3; P_trend < 0.01). The adjusted number of all-cause hospitalizations of patients with diabetes per 100,000 inhabitants increased 2.6-fold. The increase in hospitalizations was significantly higher among patients ≥75 years old. Males experienced a greater increase in all-cause, neoplasm, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia hospitalizations (p < 0.01 for all). Hospitalized diabetic patients were progressively older and had more comorbidities, higher readmission rates and shorter hospital stays (p < 0.05 for all).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalizations of diabetic patients more than doubled in Spain during the study period. Heart failure and neoplasms experienced the greatest annual increases and remained the principal causes of hospitalization, probably associated with advanced age and comorbidities of hospitalized diabetics. Coronary and cerebrovascular diseases experienced a lower annual increase, suggesting an improvement in cardiovascular care in diabetes in Spain.

Assessment and comparison of APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation), SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) score and CURB 65 (Confusion; Urea; Respiratory Rate; Blood Pressure), for prediction of inpatient mortality in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

OBJECTIVE

To assess and compare the role of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Confusion Urea Respiratory Rate Blood Pressure scores in predicting inpatient mortality for patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease..

DESIGN

The retrospective study was conducted at the Jinnah Post-graduate Medical Centre, Karachi, and comprised data of all consecutive Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease patients from December 1, 2013, to December 31, 2014. Logistic regression model and non-parametric tests were employed using SPSS 22..

RESULTS

There were 95 patients whose medical records were studied. The overall mean age was 60.79±12.39 years. Mortality rate was of 26(27.6%). Median hospital stay was 11.5 days (interquartile range: 9-17 days) in survivors and 4 days (2-8 days) in non-survivors. Out of the three scales used, Confusion Urea Respiratory Rate Blood Pressure-65 score showed the greatest difference between survivors and non-survivors (p <0.05). Significant higher scores were observed in non survivors with Type 2 than Type 1 respiratory failure (p<0.05). There was significant association of mortality with baseline partial pressure of oxygen and oxygen saturation (p<0.05 each).

CONCLUSIONS

Confusion Urea Respiratory Rate Blood Pressure-65score determined at the time of admission had significant ability to predict inpatient mortality..

Bacterial and Viral Identification Rate in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Korea

PURPOSE

The most common cause of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is respiratory infection. Most studies of bacterial or viral cause in AECOPD have been conducted in Western countries. We investigated bacterial and viral identification rates in AECOPD in Korea.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We reviewed and analyzed medical records of 736 cases of AECOPD at the Korea University Guro Hospital. We analyzed bacterial and viral identification rates and classified infections according to epidemiological factors, such as Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage, mortality, and seasonal variation.

RESULTS

The numbers of AECOPD events involving only bacterial identification, only viral identification, bacterial-viral co-identification, and no identification were 200 (27.2%), 159 (21.6%), 107 (14.5%), and 270 (36.7%), respectively. The most common infectious bacteria identified were Pseudomonas aeruginosa (13.0%), Streptococcus pneumoniae (11.4%), and Haemophilus influenzae (5.3%); the most common viruses identified were influenza virus (12.4%), rhinovirus (9.4%), parainfluenza virus (5.2%), and metapneumovirus (4.9%). The bacterial identification rate tended to be higher at more advanced stages of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p=0.020 overall, p=0.011 for P. aeruginosa, p=0.048 for S. pneumoniae). Staphylococcus aureus and Klebsiella pneumoniae were identified more in mortality group (p=0.003 for S. aureus, p=0.009 for K. pneumoniae). All viruses were seasonal (i.e., greater prevalence in a particular season; p<0.050). Influenza virus and rhinovirus were mainly identified in the winter, parainfluenza virus in the summer, and metapneumovirus in the spring.

CONCLUSION

This information on the epidemiology of respiratory infections in AECOPD will improve the management of AECOPD using antibiotics and other treatments in Korea.

Postoperative outcomes of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting surgery: A meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a frequent comorbid disease in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery, with an incidence ranging from 4% to 20.5%. Conventionally, COPD was recognized as a surgical contraindication to CABG. Because of the recent improvements in surgical techniques, anesthesia, and postoperative management, CABG has been performed more commonly in patients with COPD. However, studies have shown the various effects of COPD on postoperative morbidity and mortality after CABG, and this remains to be well defined.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the postoperative outcomes after CABG between patients with and those without COPD.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in the Cochrane Library, PubMed, EmBase, and Ovid databases (until May 10, 2018). Studies comparing perioperative results and mortality outcomes after CABG between patients with and those without COPD were evaluated independently by 2 reviewers to identify the potentially eligible studies. Review Manager and STATA software were used for statistical analyses.

RESULTS

No significant difference in the mortality rates were found between patients with and those without COPD. COPD was associated with a higher respiratory failure rate (odds ratio [OR] = 4.01; 95% CI: 1.19-13.51, P = .03; P <.001 for heterogeneity), higher pneumonia rate (OR = 2.92; 95% CI: 2.37-3.60, P <.00001; P = .73 for heterogeneity), higher stroke rate (OR = 2.91; 95% CI: 1.37-6.18, P = .005; P = .60 for heterogeneity), higher renal failure rate (OR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.30-1.97, P <.00001; P = .19 for heterogeneity), and higher wound infection rate (OR = 2.16; 95% CI: 1.21-3.88, P = .01; P = .53 for heterogeneity) after CABG.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with COPD were at higher risks for developing postoperative morbidities, particularly pneumonia, respiratory failure, stroke, renal failure, and wound infection. Although COPD was not associated with a higher risk of mortality, caution should be taken when a patient with COPD is indicated for CABG, considering the higher odds of postoperative complications involving the respiratory system and others.

Bronchiectasis in patients hospitalized with acute exacerbation of COPD in Spain: Influence on mortality, hospital stay, and hospital costs (2006-2014) according to gender

PURPOSE

The objectives of this study were to analyze the characteristics of male and female patients hospitalized with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPD) during 2006-2014 according to the presence or absence of bronchiectasis and to study the factors associated with in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients hospitalized with AE-COPD and concomitant bronchiectasis.

METHODS

We used the Spanish National Hospital Database to analyze patients admitted with AE-COPD as their primary diagnosis. Patients included in the study were stratified according to the presence or absence of bronchiectasis as their secondary diagnosis.

RESULTS

We identified 386,646 admissions for AE-COPD, of which 19,679 (5.09%) involved patients with concomitant bronchiectasis. When patients with and without bronchiectasis were compared, we observed that the incidence of infection by Pseudomonas aeruginosa was substantially higher in the former, as were the mean stay, cost, and percentage of readmissions, although IHM and comorbidity were lower. The course of patients with AE-COPD and bronchiectasis was characterized by a gradual increase in prevalence and mean age among men and no differences in prevalence or lower mean age in women. Mortality was 4.24% and 5.02% in patients with and without bronchiectasis, respectively, although significance was lost after a multivariate adjustment (OR 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-1.01). The factors associated with IHM were older age, higher comorbidity, isolation of P. aeruginosa, mechanical ventilation and readmission.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of admission with AE-COPD and bronchiectasis increased in men but not in women during the study period. In patients hospitalized with AE-COPD, we did not find differences in mortality when comparing the presence and absence of bronchiectasis. The analysis of temporal trends revealed a significant reduction in mortality from 2006 to 2014 in male patients with COPD and concomitant bronchiectasis, but not among women. It is important to consider the factors associated with IHM such as age, comorbidity, isolation of P. aeruginosa, mechanical ventilation and readmission to better identify those patients who are at greater risk of dying during hospitalization.

Spatial patterns and effects of air pollution and meteorological factors on hospitalization for chronic lung diseases in Beijing, China

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer (LC) and tuberculosis (TB) are common chronic lung diseases that generate a large disease burden and significant health care resource use in China. The aim of this study was to quantify spatial patterns and effects of air pollution and meteorological factors on hospitalization of COPD, LC and TB in Beijing. Daily counts of hospitalization for 2010 were obtained from the Beijing Urban Employees Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) system. Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression models were applied to identify spatial patterns of hospitalization for COPD, LC and TB at the district level and explore associations with inhalable particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter <10 μm, PM₁₀), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), mean temperature and relative humidity. There were 18,882, 14,295 and 2,940 counts of hospitalizations for COPD, LC and TB respectively, in Beijing in 2010. Clusters of high relative risk were in different locations for the three diseases. The effect of relative humidity on COPD hospitalization was most significant with a relative risk (RR) of 1.070 (95%CI: 1.054, 1.086) per one percent increase. For lung cancer hospitalization, exposure to ambient SO₂ was associated with a RR of 1.034 (95%CI: 1.011, 1.058) per μg m^-3 increase. For tuberculosis, the effect of mean temperature was significant with a RR of 1.107 (95%CI: 1.038, 1.180) per °C increase. Risk factors and spatial patterns were different for hospitalization of non-infectious and infectious chronic lung disease in Beijing. Even over a short time period (one year), associations were apparent with air pollution and meteorological factors.

The impact of glycemic variability on length of stay and mortality in diabetic patients admitted with community-acquired pneumonia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

AIM

To investigate the influence of glycemic variability (GV) on length of stay and in-hospital mortality in non-critical diabetic patients.

METHODS

A observation retrospective study was performed. Diabetic patients admitted between January and June 2016 with the diagnosis of community-acquire pneumonia (CAP) and/or acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were enrolled and glycemic control (persistent hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, mean glucose level (MGL) and respective standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (CV)) were evaluated. Primary outcomes were length of stay and in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Data from 242 patients were analyzed. Fifty-eight percent of the patients were male, with a median age of 77 years (min-max, 29-98). Patients had on average 2.1 glucose readings-day and the MGL was 193.3 mg/dl (min-max, 84.3-436.6). Hypoglycemia was documented in 13.4% of the patients and 55.4% had persistent hyperglycemia. The median length of hospital stay was 10 days (min-max, 1-66) and in-hospital mortality was 7.4%. We found a significant higher in-hospital mortality in older patients, with history of cancer and with nosocomial infections. We did not find any correlation between MGL, SD, CV, hypoglycemia or persist hyperglycemia and in-hospital mortality. A longer length of stay was observed in patients with heavy alcohol consumption and nosocomial infections. The length of stay was negatively correlated with the mean glucose level (r²-0.147; p < 0.05) and positively correlated with the coefficient of variation (p 0.162; p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed the negative impact of the glycemic variability in the outcomes of diabetic patients admitted with CAP or acute exacerbation of COPD.

Associations between Coarse Particulate Matter Air Pollution and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Nationwide Analysis in 272 Chinese Cities

BACKGROUND

Coarse particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 and [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) air pollution is a severe environmental problem in developing countries, but its challenges to public health were rarely evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the associations between day-to-day changes in [Formula: see text] and cause-specific mortality in China.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide daily time-series analysis in 272 main Chinese cities from 2013 to 2015. The associations between [Formula: see text] concentrations and mortality were analyzed in each city using overdispersed generalized additive models. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate national and regional average associations, and random-effect models were used to pool city-specific concentration-response curves. Two-pollutant models were adjusted for fine particles with aerodynamic diameter [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) or gaseous pollutants.

RESULTS

Overall, we observed positive and approximately linear concentration-response associations between [Formula: see text] and daily mortality. A [Formula: see text] increase in [Formula: see text] was associated with higher mortality due to nonaccidental causes [0.23%; 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.13, 0.33], cardiovascular diseases (CVDs; 0.25%; 95% PI: 0.13, 0.37), coronary heart disease (CHD; 0.21%; 95% PI: 0.05, 0.36), stroke (0.21%; 95% PI: 0.08, 0.35), respiratory diseases (0.26%; 95% PI: 0.07, 0.46), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; 0.34%; 95% PI: 0.12, 0.57). Associations were stronger for cities in southern vs. northern China, with significant differences for total and cardiovascular mortality. Associations with [Formula: see text] were of similar magnitude to those for [Formula: see text] in both single- and two-pollutant models with mutual adjustment. Associations were robust to adjustment for gaseous pollutants other than nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Meta-regression indicated that a larger positive correlation between [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] predicted stronger city-specific associations between [Formula: see text] and total mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis showed significant associations between short-term [Formula: see text] exposure and daily nonaccidental and cardiopulmonary mortality based on data from 272 cities located throughout China. Associations appeared to be independent of exposure to [Formula: see text], carbon monoxide, and ozone. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2711.

[Survival in a cohort of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease according to GOLD 2017 classification]

Until now, there is no information on the evolution of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) according to the new GOLD classification. The objective of this study was to determine, in a cohort of patients with COPD followed by twenty years, the impact of the change to the new classification: survival by groups and their association with other variables such as comorbidities. COPD patients (GOLD 2017 definition) were evaluated with follow-up since January 1996 to December 2016. Conventional statistics and Log-Rank survival analysis (Mantel-Cox) were used. We analyzed 354 patients: age 66.5 ± 8.4, 66.7% men. Former smokers 74.2% (56 pack-year). Charlson index 4.1 ± 1.7. At the end of study 219 (62%) were alive and 135 (38%) died. The follow-up was 28 months (12-54.7). In the univariate and multivariate analysis, male sex and age were associated with higher mortality. Considering only the spirometry, to a worse degree of airflow obstruction, corresponded a lower survival. With the ABCD 2017 classification, the worst survival was observed in group D. Only in this group, survival is independent of the level of deterioration of FEV1 (p = 0.005). The new ABCD classification is a mortality predictor, only if it is associated to pulmonary function.

[The impact of acute exacerbations of COPD on mortality]

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of the study was to evaluate the impact of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on mortality and to identify the predictive factors in the Algerian population where COPD occurs as frequently as in the rest of the world.

METHODS

An observational study of a cohort of 400 patients with an established diagnosis of COPD was performed in the pulmonology department of the University of Algiers. The patients were divided into two groups according to the number of exacerbations they experienced and were followed prospectively for 3 years. Mortality was analyzed comparatively in both groups.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period 39 patients died, mainly frequent exacerbators (84.6%), with a high mortality occurring during and in the months following hospitalisation (69.2%). By multivariate analysis the phenotype "frequent exacerbator" (RR=6.20; 95% CI: 2.6 to 14.8), GOLD category C (RR=7; 95% CI: 1.28 to 14.7), GOLD category D (RR=7.11; 95% CI: 1.38 to 15.6), age≥80 years (RR=2.7, 95% CI: 2.23 to 3.76) and chronic core pulmonale (RR=2.35; 95% CI 1.05 to 5.25) were shown to be independent risk factors of death.

CONCLUSION

The frequency and the severity of exacerbations impact negatively on the survival of patients with COPD.

The effect of changes to GOLD severity stage on long term morbidity and mortality in COPD

BACKGROUND

The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) severity stage classifies Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) into groups based on symptoms, exacerbations and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). This allows patients to change to less severe COPD stages, a novel aspect of assessment not previously evaluated. We aimed to investigate the association between temporal changes in GOLD severity stage and outcomes in COPD patients.

METHODS

This was a record-linkage study using patients registered with a Scottish regional COPD network 2000-2015. Annual spirometry & symptoms were recorded and linked to healthcare records to identify exacerbations, hospitalisations and mortality. Spirometry, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnoea scale and acute exacerbations over the previous year were used to assign GOLD severity at each visit. A time-dependent Cox model was used to model time to death. Secondary outcomes were respiratory specific mortality and hospitalisations. Effect sizes are expressed as Hazard Ratios HR (95%CI).

RESULTS

Four thousand, eight hundred and eighty-five patients (mean age 67.3 years; 51.3% female) with 21,348 visits were included. During a median 6.6 years follow-up there were 1530 deaths. For the secondary outcomes there were 712 respiratory deaths and 1629 first hospitalisations. Across 16,463 visit-pairs, improvement in COPD severity was seen in 2308 (14%), no change in 11,010 (66.9%) and worsening in 3145 (19.1). Compared to patients staying in GOLD stage A, those worsening had a stepwise increased mortality and hospitalisations.

CONCLUSIONS

Improving COPD severity classification was associated with reduced mortality and worsening COPD severity was associated with increased mortality and hospitalisations. Change in GOLD group has potential as monitoring tool and outcome measure in clinical trials.

Reassessing the BODE score as a criterion for listing COPD patients for lung transplantation

BACKGROUND

The BODE score (incorporating body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea and exercise capacity) is used for the timing of listing for lung transplantation (LTx) in COPD, based on survival data from the original BODE cohort. This has limitations, because the original BODE cohort differs from COPD patients who are candidates for LTx and the BODE does not include parameters that may influence survival. Our goal was to assess whether parameters such as age, smoking status and diffusion indices significantly influence survival in the absence of LTx, independently of the BODE.

METHODS

In the present cohort study, the BODE was prospectively assessed in COPD patients followed in a tertiary care hospital with an LTx program. The files of 469 consecutive patients were reviewed for parameters of interest (age, gender, smoking status and diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide [DL,CO]) at the time of BODE assessment, as well as for survival status. Their influence on survival independent of the BODE score was assessed, as well as their ability to predict survival in patients aged less than 65 years.

RESULTS

A Cox regression model showed that the BODE score, age and DL,CO were independently related to survival (P-values <0.001), as opposed to smoking status. Survival was better in patients aged less than 65 in the first (P=0.004), third (P=0.002) and fourth BODE quartiles (P=0.008). The difference did not reach significance in the second quartile (P=0.13). Median survival for patients aged less than 65 in the fourth BODE quartile was 55 months. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the BODE score as well as FEV1 and DL,CO fared similarly in predicting survival status at 5 years in patients aged less than 65 years.

CONCLUSION

Age and DL,CO add to the BODE score to predict survival in COPD. Assessing survival using tools tested in cohorts of patients younger than 65 years is warranted for improving the listing of patients for LTx.

Association of Medication Intensity and Stages of Airflow Limitation With the Risk of Hospitalization or Death in Patients With Heart Failure and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

IMPORTANCE

In heart failure (HF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) increases the risk of poor outcomes, but the effect of COPD severity is unknown. This information is important for early intervention tailored to the highest-risk groups.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the associations between COPD medication intensity or stage of airflow limitation and the risk of hospitalization or death in patients with HF.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This UK population-based, nested case-control study with risk-set sampling used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics between January 1, 2002, to January 1, 2014. Participants included patients aged 40 years and older with a new diagnosis of HF in their family practice clinical record. Data analysis was conducted from 2017 to 2018.

EXPOSURES

In patients with HF, those with COPD were compared with those without it. International COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD]) guidelines were used to stratify patients with COPD by 7 medication intensity levels and 4 airflow limitation severity stages using automatically recorded prescriptions and routinely requested forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) data.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

First all-cause admission or all-cause death.

RESULTS

There were 50 114 patients with new HF (median age, 79 years [interquartile range, 71-85 years]; 46% women) during the study period. In patients with HF, COPD (18 478 [13.8%]) was significantly associated with increased mortality (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.31; 95% CI, 1.26-1.36) and hospitalization (AOR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.26-1.39). The 3 most severe medication intensity levels showed significantly increasing mortality associations from full inhaler therapy (AOR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.06-1.29) to oral corticosteroids (AOR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.57-1.81) to oxygen therapy (AOR, 2.82; 95% CI, 2.42-3.28). The respective estimates for hospitalization were AORs of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.03-1.33), 1.75 (95% CI, 1.59-1.92), and 2.84 (95% CI, 1.22-3.63). Availability of spirometry data was limited but showed that increasing airflow limitation was associated with increased risk of mortality, with the following AORs: FEV1 80% or more, 1.63 (95% CI, 1.42-1.87); FEV1 50% to 79%, 1.69 (95% CI, 1.56-1.83); FEV1 30% to 49%, 2.21 (95% CI, 2.01-2.42); FEV1 less than 30%, 2.93 (95% CI, 2.49-3.43). The strength of associations between FEV1 and hospitalization risk were similar among stages ranging from FEV1 80% or more (AOR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.31-1.68) to FEV1 less than 30% (AOR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.40-2.12).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In the UK HF community setting, increasing COPD severity was associated with increasing risk of mortality and hospitalization. Prescribed COPD medication intensity and airflow limitation provide the basis for targeting high-risk groups.

Using Demographic Factors and Comorbidities to Develop a Predictive Model for ICU Mortality in Patients with Acute Exacerbation COPD

Recognizing factors associated with mortality in patients admitted to the ICU with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease could reduce healthcare costs and improve end-of-life care. Previous studies have identified possible predictive variables, but analysis is lacking on the combined effect of demographic factors and comorbidities. Using the MIMIC-III database, this study examined factors associated with mortality in a model incorporating comorbidities, comorbidity indices, and demographic factors. After determining associations between predictive variables and mortality through univariate and multivariate binomial logistic regression, three predictive models were developed: (1) univariate GLM-derived logistic, (2) Mean Gini-derived logistic (MGDL), and (3) random forest. The MGDL model best predicted mortality with an AUROC of 0.778. Variables with the greatest relative importance in determining mortality included the Charlson Comorbidity Index, Elixhauser Index, male, and arrhythmia. The results support the potential of using the MGDL model and need for further work in exploring demographic factors.

Estimation of PM2.5 mortality burden in China with new exposure estimation and local concentration-response function

The estimation of PM_2.5-related mortality is becoming increasingly important. The accuracy of results is largely dependent on the selection of methods for PM_2.5 exposure assessment and Concentration-Response (C-R) function. In this study, PM_2.5 observed data from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center, satellite-derived estimation, widely collected geographic and socioeconomic information variables were applied to develop a national satellite-based Land Use Regression model and evaluate PM_2.5 exposure concentrations within 2013-2015 with the resolution of 1 km × 1 km. Population weighted concentration declined from 72.52 μg/m³ in 2013 to 57.18 μg/m³ in 2015. C-R function is another important section of health effect assessment, but most previous studies used the Integrated Exposure Regression (IER) function which may currently underestimate the excess relative risk of exceeding the exposure range in China. A new Shape Constrained Health Impact Function (SCHIF) method, which was developed from a national cohort of 189,793 Chinese men, was adopted to estimate the PM_2.5-related premature deaths in China. Results showed that 2.19 million (2013), 1.94 million (2014), 1.65 million (2015) premature deaths were attributed to PM_2.5 long-term exposure, different from previous understanding around 1.1-1.7 million. The top three provinces of the highest premature deaths were Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, while the least ones were Tibet, Hainan, Qinghai. The proportions of premature deaths caused by specific diseases were 53.2% for stroke, 20.5% for ischemic heart disease, 16.8% for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 9.5% for lung cancer. IER function was also used to calculate PM_2.5-related premature deaths with the same exposed level used in SCHIF method, and the comparison of results indicated that IER had made a much lower estimation with less annual amounts around 0.15-0.5 million premature deaths within 2013-2015.

Impact of chemotherapy in the prognosis of non-small-cell lung cancer patients with severe to very severe COPD

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to investigate if first-line chemotherapy improves total survival time in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients complicated with severe to very severe COPD.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective observational clinical study included 267 consecutive NSCLC patients with COPD complications at the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine of Tianjin Chest Hospital between January 2009 and January 2018. Sixty-nine evaluable patients were included. The clinical characteristics, toxicity profile, objective response rate, and prognosis were analyzed and compared between patients receiving and those not receiving chemotherapy.

RESULTS

Forty-five and 24 patients received first-line chemotherapy plus supportive care and supportive care alone, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients receiving chemotherapy had a statistically significant 6-month longer median overall survival (OS) than that of patients receiving supportive care alone (14.0, 95% CI: 8.5-19.5 vs 8.0, 95% CI: 6.4-9.6, respectively) (chi2=8.857, P=0.003). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for the most relevant variables, the adjusted hazard ratio (HRadj) differed significantly for the receipt of chemotherapy (HRadj=0.4464, 95% CI: 0.2495-0.7988; P=0.0066) but not for gender (HRadj=0.8527, 95% CI: 0.4461-1.6298; P=0.6297), age (HRadj=1.0021, 95% CI: 0.9609-1.0451; P=0.9214), histology (HRadj=1.4422, 95% CI: 0.6959-2.9889; P=0.3247), cancer stage (HRadj=1.9098, 95% CI: 0.8607-4.2375; P=0.1116), performance status score (HRadj=1.5155, 95% CI: 0.7523-3.0529; P=0.2446), lung function (HRadj=1.3856, 95% CI: 0.7149-2.6857; P=0.3341), or respiratory symptoms (HRadj=1.0518, 95% CI: 0.6032-1.8342; P=0.8586). Patients with grade 3/4 adverse reactions accounted for 29% (13/45) of the chemotherapy group.

CONCLUSION

The results indicated that chemotherapy may improve the OS of NSCLC patients with severe to very severe COPD.

High-intensity versus low-intensity noninvasive positive pressure ventilation in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HAPPEN): study protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Despite the positive outcomes of the use of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD), NPPV fails in approximately 15% of patients with AECOPD, possibly because the inspiratory pressure delivered by conventional low-intensity NPPV is insufficient to improve ventilatory status for these patients. High-intensity NPPV, a novel form that delivers high inspiratory pressure, is believed to more efficiently augment alveolar ventilation than low-intensity NPPV, and it has been shown to improve ventilatory status more than low-intensity NPPV in stable AECOPD patients. Whether the application of high-intensity NPPV has therapeutic advantages over low-intensity NPPV in patients with AECOPD remains to be determined. The high-intensity versus low-intensity NPPV in patients with AECOPD (HAPPEN) study will examine whether high-intensity NPPV is more effective for correcting hypercapnia than low-intensity NPPV, hence reducing the need for intubation and improving survival.

METHODS/DESIGN

The HAPPEN study is a multicenter, two-arm, single-blind, prospective, randomized controlled trial. In total, 600 AECOPD patients with low to moderate hypercapnic respiratory failure will be included and randomized to receive high-intensity or low-intensity NPPV, with randomization stratified by study center. The primary endpoint is NPPV failure rate, defined as the need for endotracheal intubation and invasive ventilation. Secondary endpoints include the decrement of arterial carbon dioxide tension from baseline to 2 h after randomization, in-hospital and 28-day mortality, and 90-day survival. Patients will be followed up for 90 days after randomization.

DISCUSSION

The HAPPEN study will be the first randomized controlled study to investigate whether high-intensity NPPV better corrects hypercapnia and reduces the need for intubation and mortality in AECOPD patients than low-intensity NPPV. The results will help critical care physicians decide the intensity of NPPV delivery to patients with AECOPD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02985918 . Registered on 7 December 2016.

Effect of beta-blocker therapy on clinical outcomes, safety, health-related quality of life and functional capacity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): a protocol for a systematic literature review and meta-analysis with multiple treatment comparison

INTRODUCTION

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who have a clinical indication for beta-blocker therapy, are often not prescribed such medication, despite evidence suggesting that beta-blockers are not associated with adverse respiratory outcomes. The primary objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to examine the class effect of beta-blocker use in patients with COPD. We will focus on a broad range of endpoints including, clinical, safety, and patient-centric outcomes such as health related quality of life (HRQoL) and functional capacity. A secondary objective is to explore potential within-class variation in the effects of beta-blockers among patients with COPD, and rank individual agents according to their relative benefit(s).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

MEDLINE, Embase, The Cochrane Library and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases will be systematically searched, from inception to present, to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and other prospective and interventional studies of beta-blocker use in patients with COPD which report on the outcomes of interest. Relative treatment effects with respect to mortality, COPD exacerbations, all-cause hospitalisation, lung function, HRQoL and exercise capacity will be summarised by meta-analysis. Individual treatments (agents) will be compared in a Bayesian network meta-analysis including RCT and observational data, if feasible.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The results of the study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Only previously published aggregate data will be used for the purpose of this review.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018098983.

Impact of Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease on long-term cardiovascular events and death in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) both independently increase cardiovascular risk. We hypothesized that NAFLD might increase the incidence of cardiovascular disease and death in COPD patients. The relationship between NAFLD, incident cardiovascular events, and death was assessed in a prospective cohort of COPD patients with 5-year follow-up. Noninvasive algorithms combining biological parameters (FibroMax®) were used to evaluate steatosis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and liver fibrosis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess the hazard for composite outcome at the endpoint (death or cardiovascular event) for each liver pathology. In 111 COPD patients, 75% exhibited liver damage with a prevalence of steatosis, NASH and fibrosis of 41%, 37% and 61%, respectively. During 5-year follow-up, 31 experienced at least one cardiovascular event and 7 died. In univariate analysis, patients with liver fibrosis had more cardiovascular events and higher mortality (Hazard ratio [95% CI]: 2.75 [1.26; 6.03]) than those with no fibrosis; this remained significant in multivariate analysis (Hazard ratio [95% CI]: 2.94 [1.18; 7.33]). We also found that steatosis and NASH were not associated with increased cardiovascular events or mortality. To conclude, early assessment of liver damage might participate to improve cardiovascular outcomes in COPD patients.

The burden of ozone pollution on years of life lost from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a city of Yangtze River Delta, China

OBJECTIVE

Ambient ozone is one of the most important air pollutants with respect to its impacts on human health and its increasing concentrations globally. However, studies which explored the burden of ozone pollution on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and estimated the relevant economic loss were rare.

OBJECTIVE

We explored the relationships between ambient ozone exposure and years of life lost (YLL) from COPD mortality and estimated the relevant economic loss in Ningbo, in the Yangtze River Delta of China, 2011-2015.

METHODS

A time-series study was conducted to explore the effects of ozone on YLL from COPD. Seasonal stratified analyses were performed, and the effect modification of demographic factors was estimated. In addition, the related economic loss was calculated using the method of the value per statistical life year (VSLY).

RESULTS

Averaged daily mean maximum 8-h average ozone concentration was 40.90 ppb in Ningbo, China, 2011-2015. The effect of short term ambient ozone exposure on COPD YLL was more pronounced in the cool season than in the warm season, with 10 ppb increment of ozone corresponding to 7.09(95%CI: 3.41, 10.78) years increase in the cool season and 0.31 (95%CI: -2.15, 2.77) years change in the warm season. The effect was higher in the elderly than the young. Economic loss due to excess COPD YLL related to ozone exposure accounted for 7.30% of the total economic loss due to COPD YLL in Ningbo during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight that ozone exposure was related to tremendous disease burden of COPD in Ningbo, China. The effects were more pronounced in the cool season, and the elderly were more susceptible populations.

Antibiotics for exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Many patients with an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are treated with antibiotics. However, the value of antibiotics remains uncertain, as systematic reviews and clinical trials have shown conflicting results.

OBJECTIVES

To assess effects of antibiotics on treatment failure as observed between seven days and one month after treatment initiation (primary outcome) for management of acute COPD exacerbations, as well as their effects on other patient-important outcomes (mortality, adverse events, length of hospital stay, time to next exacerbation).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, and other electronically available databases up to 26 September 2018.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We sought to find randomised controlled trials (RCTs) including people with acute COPD exacerbations comparing antibiotic therapy and placebo and providing follow-up of at least seven days.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened references and extracted data from trial reports. We kept the three groups of outpatients, inpatients, and patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) separate for benefit outcomes and mortality because we considered them to be clinically too different to be summarised as a single group. We considered outpatients to have a mild to moderate exacerbation, inpatients to have a severe exacerbation, and ICU patients to have a very severe exacerbation. When authors of primary studies did not report outcomes or study details, we contacted them to request missing data. We calculated pooled risk ratios (RRs) for treatment failure, Peto odds ratios (ORs) for rare events (mortality and adverse events), and mean differences (MDs) for continuous outcomes using random-effects models. We used GRADE to assess the quality of the evidence. The primary outcome was treatment failure as observed between seven days and one month after treatment initiation.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 19 trials with 2663 participants (11 with outpatients, seven with inpatients, and one with ICU patients).For outpatients (with mild to moderate exacerbations), evidence of low quality suggests that currently available antibiotics statistically significantly reduced the risk for treatment failure between seven days and one month after treatment initiation (RR 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.94; I² = 31%; in absolute terms, reduction in treatment failures from 295 to 212 per 1000 treated participants, 95% CI 165 to 277). Studies providing older antibiotics not in use anymore yielded an RR of 0.69 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.90; I² = 31%). Evidence of low quality from one trial in outpatients suggested no effects of antibiotics on mortality (Peto OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.49 to 3.30). One trial reported no effects of antibiotics on re-exacerbations between two and six weeks after treatment initiation. Only one trial (N = 35) reported health-related quality of life but did not show a statistically significant difference between treatment and control groups.Evidence of moderate quality does not show that currently used antibiotics statistically significantly reduced the risk of treatment failure among inpatients with severe exacerbations (i.e. for inpatients excluding ICU patients) (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.12; I² = 50%), but trial results remain uncertain. In turn, the effect was statistically significant when trials included older antibiotics no longer in clinical use (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.00; I² = 39%). Evidence of moderate quality from two trials including inpatients shows no beneficial effects of antibiotics on mortality (Peto OR 2.48, 95% CI 0.94 to 6.55). Length of hospital stay (in days) was similar in antibiotic and placebo groups.The only trial with 93 patients admitted to the ICU showed a large and statistically significant effect on treatment failure (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.45; moderate-quality evidence; in absolute terms, reduction in treatment failures from 565 to 107 per 1000 treated participants, 95% CI 45 to 254). Results of this trial show a statistically significant effect on mortality (Peto OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.72; moderate-quality evidence) and on length of hospital stay (MD -9.60 days, 95% CI -12.84 to -6.36; low-quality evidence).Evidence of moderate quality gathered from trials conducted in all settings shows no statistically significant effect on overall incidence of adverse events (Peto OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.63; moderate-quality evidence) nor on diarrhoea (Peto OR 1.68, 95% CI 0.92 to 3.07; moderate-quality evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Researchers have found that antibiotics have some effect on inpatients and outpatients, but these effects are small, and they are inconsistent for some outcomes (treatment failure) and absent for other outcomes (mortality, length of hospital stay). Analyses show a strong beneficial effect of antibiotics among ICU patients. Few data are available on the effects of antibiotics on health-related quality of life or on other patient-reported symptoms, and data show no statistically significant increase in the risk of adverse events with antibiotics compared to placebo. These inconsistent effects call for research into clinical signs and biomarkers that can help identify patients who would benefit from antibiotics, while sparing antibiotics for patients who are unlikely to experience benefit and for whom downsides of antibiotics (side effects, costs, and multi-resistance) should be avoided.

Outcomes for symptomatic non-obstructed individuals and individuals with mild (GOLD stage 1) COPD in a population based cohort

BACKGROUND

We aimed to study the adverse outcomes of symptomatic and asymptomatic non-obstructed individuals and those with mild COPD longitudinally in participants from three Latin-American cities.

METHODS

Two population-based surveys of adults with spirometry were conducted for these same individuals with a 5- to 9-year interval. We evaluated the impact of respiratory symptoms (cough, phlegm, wheezing or dyspnea) in non-obstructed individuals, and among those classified as Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage 1, COPD on exacerbation frequency, mortality and FEV1 decline, compared with asymptomatic individuals without airflow obstruction or restriction.

RESULTS

Non-obstructed symptomatic individuals had a marginal increased risk of mortality (HR 1.3; 95% CI 0.9-1.94), increased FEV1 decline (-4.5 mL/year; 95% CI -8.6, -0.4) and increased risk of 2+ exacerbations in the previous year (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.2-6.5). Individuals with GOLD stage 1 had a marginal increase in mortality (HR 1.5; 95% CI 0.93-2.3) but a non-significant impact on FEV1 decline or exacerbations compared with non-obstructed individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of respiratory symptoms in non-obstructed individuals was a predictor of mortality, lung-function decline and exacerbations, whereas the impact of GOLD stage 1 was mild and inconsistent. Respiratory symptoms were associated with asthma, current smoking, and the report of heart disease. Spirometric case-finding and treatment should target individuals with moderate-to-severe airflow obstruction and those with restriction, the groups with consistent increased mortality.

Validation of the GOLD 2017 and new 16 subgroups (1A-4D) classifications in predicting exacerbation and mortality in COPD patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

A multidimensional assessment of COPD was recommended by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) in 2013 and revised in 2017. We examined the ability of the GOLD 2017 and the new 16 subgroup (1A-4D) classifications to predict clinical outcomes, including exacerbation and mortality, and compared them with the GOLD 2013 classifications.

METHODS

Patients with COPD were recruited from January 2006 to December 2017. The predictive abilities of grades 1-4 and groups A-D were examined through a logistic regression analysis with receiver operating curve estimations and area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 553 subjects with COPD were analyzed. The mortality rate was 48.6% during a median follow-up period of 5.2 years. Both the GOLD 2017 and the 2013 group A-D classifications had good predictive ability for total and severe exacerbations, for which the AUCs were 0.79 vs 0.77 and 0.79 vs 0.78, respectively. The AUCs for the GOLD 2017 groups A-D, grades 1-4, and the GOLD 2013 group A-D classifications were 0.70, 0.66, and 0.70 for all-cause mortality and 0.73, 0.71, and 0.74 for respiratory cause mortality, respectively. Combining the spirometric staging with the grouping for the GOLD 2017 subgroups (1A-4D), the all-cause mortality rate for group B and D patients was significantly increased from subgroups 1B-4B (27.7%, 50.6%, 53.3%, and 69.2%, respectively) and groups 1D-4D (55.0%, 68.8%, 82.1%, and 90.5%, respectively). The AUCs of subgroups (1A-4D) were 0.73 and 0.77 for all-cause and respiratory mortality, respectively; the new classification was determined more accurate than the GOLD 2017 for predicting mortality (P<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The GOLD 2017 classification performed well by identifying individuals at risk of exacerbation, but its predictive ability for mortality was poor among COPD patients. Combining the spirometric staging with the grouping increased the predictive ability for all-cause and respiratory mortality.

SUMMARY AT A GLANCE

We validate the ability of the GOLD 2017 and 16 subgroup (1A-4D) classifications to predict clinical outcome for COPD patients. The GOLD 2017 classification performed well by identifying individuals at risk of exacerbation, but its predictive ability for mortality was poor. The new 16 subgroup (1A-4D) classification combining the spirometric 1-4 staging and the A-D grouping increased the predictive ability for mortality and was better than the GOLD 2017 for predicting all-cause and respiratory mortality among COPD patients.

Effect of Theophylline as Adjunct to Inhaled Corticosteroids on Exacerbations in Patients With COPD: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major global health issue and theophylline is used extensively. Preclinical investigations have demonstrated that low plasma concentrations (1-5 mg/L) of theophylline enhance antiinflammatory effects of corticosteroids in COPD.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effectiveness of adding low-dose theophylline to inhaled corticosteroids in COPD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The TWICS (theophylline with inhaled corticosteroids) trial was a pragmatic, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial that enrolled patients with COPD between February 6, 2014, and August 31, 2016. Final follow-up ended on August 31, 2017. Participants had a ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) of less than 0.7 with at least 2 exacerbations (treated with antibiotics, oral corticosteroids, or both) in the previous year and were using an inhaled corticosteroid. This study included 1578 participants in 121 UK primary and secondary care sites.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomized to receive low-dose theophylline (200 mg once or twice per day) to provide plasma concentrations of 1 to 5 mg/L (determined by ideal body weight and smoking status) (n = 791) or placebo (n = 787).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The number of participant-reported moderate or severe exacerbations treated with antibiotics, oral corticosteroids, or both over the 1-year treatment period.

RESULTS

Of the 1567 participants analyzed, mean (SD) age was 68.4 (8.4) years and 54% (843) were men. Data for evaluation of the primary outcome were available for 1536 participants (98%) (772 in the theophylline group; 764 in the placebo group). In total, there were 3430 exacerbations: 1727 in the theophylline group (mean, 2.24 [95% CI, 2.10-2.38] exacerbations per year) vs 1703 in the placebo group (mean, 2.23 [95% CI, 2.09-2.37] exacerbations per year); unadjusted mean difference, 0.01 (95% CI, -0.19 to 0.21) and adjusted incidence rate ratio, 0.99 (95% CI, 0.91-1.08). Serious adverse events in the theophylline and placebo groups included cardiac, 2.4% vs 3.4%; gastrointestinal, 2.7% vs 1.3%; and adverse reactions such as nausea (10.9% vs 7.9%) and headaches (9.0% vs 7.9%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among adults with COPD at high risk of exacerbation treated with inhaled corticosteroids, the addition of low-dose theophylline, compared with placebo, did not reduce the number COPD exacerbations over a 1-year period. The findings do not support the use of low-dose theophylline as adjunctive therapy to inhaled corticosteroids for the prevention of COPD exacerbations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN27066620.

Base excess is superior to lactate-levels in prediction of ICU mortality after cardiac surgery

Introduction

Cardiac surgery with the use of cardiopulmonary bypass is known to induce distinct metabolic changes. Respective changes in acid-base status including increased systemic lactate levels were previously related to clinical outcomes, but data remain controversial. Therefore, we aim to investigate the relevance of lactate and base excess (BE) levels on ICU-mortality in patients admitted to the ICU after cardiac surgery.

Materials and methods

Perioperative data of patients treated in a tertiary care academic center admitted to the ICU after on-pump surgery were analyzed in a retrospective fashion. Receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for admission lactate-levels and BE with calculation of optimal cut-off values to predict ICU mortality. Univariate followed by multivariate regression models were constructed to identify potential outcome-relevant indices.

Results

Data from 1,058 patients were included in the analysis. Area under the curves for prediction of ICU mortality were 0.79 for lactate levels at ICU admission (sensitivity 61.9%/ specificity 87.5%; optimal cut-off level 3.9mmol/l), and 0.7 for BE (sensitivity 52.4%/ specificity 93.8%, optimal cut-off level -6.7), respectively. Multivariate regression identified BE < -6.7 as the single metabolic predictor of ICU-mortality (HR 4.78, 95%-CI 1.4–16.33, p = 0.01). Explorative subgroup analyses revealed that the combination of lactate ≤3.9mmol/l and BE ≤ -6.7 has stronger impact on mortality than a combination of lactate of >3.9mmol/l and BE > -6.7 (HR 2.56, 95%-CI 0.18–37.17).

Conclusions

At ICU-admission, severely reduced BE appears superior to hyperlactatemia with regard to prediction of ICU-mortality in patients after cardiac surgery.

Effects of metformin use on total mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A matched-subject design

BACKGROUNDS

Few studies have investigated the therapeutic effects of metformin in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We compared the risk of all-cause mortality between metformin users and nonusers.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study for patients with T2DM and COPD who were enrolled between January 1, 2000 and June 30, 2012. Individuals with exacerbated symptoms who were hospitalized or sent to the emergency department (ED) were identified as having exacerbated COPD; outpatient claims were identified as having stable COPD. A total of 40,597 metformin users and 39,529 nonusers comprised the cohort of stable COPD; 14,001 metformin users and 21,613 nonusers comprised the cohort of exacerbated COPD. Users and nonusers were matched using propensity score (1:1). Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 19,505 metformin users were matched to 19,505 nonusers in the cohort of diabetes with stable COPD. The mean follow-up time was 3.91 years. All-cause mortality was reported in 1326 and 1609 metformin users and nonusers, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, metformin users had lower risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.84, p < 0.0001). Metformin users had significantly lower risk of noncardiovascular death (aHR = 0.86, p = 0.0008). A total of 7721 metformin users were matched to 7721 nonusers in the cohort of diabetes with exacerbated COPD. The mean follow-up time was 3.18 years. All-cause mortality was reported in 1567 and 1865 metformin users and nonusers, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, metformin users had significantly lower risk of mortality (aHR = 0.89, p = 0.002) and cardiovascular death (aHR = 0.70, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

This large-series, nationwide cohort study demonstrated that metformin use could significantly lower the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with T2DM and either stable or exacerbated COPD.

Airflow limitation classified with the fixed ratio or the lower limit of normal and cause-specific mortality - A prospective study

BACKGROUND

There is controversy as to whether airflow limitation should be defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁)/vital capacity (VC) < 0.7 or as FEV₁/VC< the lower limit of normal (LLN). The aim was to examine whether different definitions of airflow limitation differ in predicting mortality.

METHODS

Longitudinal prospective study of a national cohort of Swedish workers (199,408 men; 7988 women), aged 20-64 years with spirometry without bronchodilation at baseline followed from 1979 until death, or censorship at 2010. Airflow limitation (AL) by Global Obstructive Lung Disease criteria, AL_GOLD, was defined as FEV₁/VC < 0.7; AL_LLN as FEV₁/VC < LLN. All all-cause, COPD and cardiovascular disease mortality was analyzed among men and women in relation to AL_GOLD and AL_LLN, adjusted for age and smoking.

RESULTS

Among men, all-cause mortality risks were similar by airflow limitation criteria: AL_GOLD RR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.26-1.38; AL_LLN, RR = 1.37, 95% CI 1.31-1.44. The risk estimates were also similar by airflow limitation definition for cardiovascular mortality and for COPD mortality. Among women, all-cause mortality was also similar by airflow limitation criteria, but significantly higher as compared to men: AL_GOLD RR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.66-2.66; AL_LLN, RR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.66-2.62. Also cardiovascular and COPD mortality by airflow limitation criteria was significantly higher among women as compared to men.

CONCLUSIONS

Defined either as FEV₁/VC < 0.7 or as FEV₁/VC < LLN, airflow limitation predicted excess mortality risk of similar magnitude. Mortality in relation to airflow limitation was higher among women compared to men.

NEWS 2 - too little evidence to implement?

The Royal College of Physicians (RCP) recently published the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), aiming to improve safety for patients with hypercapnic respiratory failure by suggesting a separate oxygen saturation (SpO2) parameter scoring system for such patients. A previously published study of patients (n=2,361 admissions) with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) demonstrated alternative scoring systems at admission did not outperform the original NEWS. Applying NEWS2 SpO2 parameters to this previously described cohort would have resulted in 44% (n=27/62) of patients who scored ≥7 points on the original NEWS and subsequently died being placed in a lower call-out threshold. NEWS2 loses the benefits of a unified, standardised scoring system and we suggest prospective research in this area before applying this adjustment.

Appropriateness of End-of-Life Care in People Dying From COPD. Applying Quality Indicators on Linked Administrative Databases

CONTEXT

Large-scale evaluations of the quality of end-of-life care in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are lacking.

OBJECTIVES

By means of a validated set of quality indicators (QIs), this study aimed to 1) assess appropriateness of end-of-life care in people dying from COPD; 2) examine variation between care regions; 3) establish performance standards.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study of all deaths from COPD (ICD-10 codes J41-J44) in 2012 in Belgium, using data from administrative population-level databases. QI scores were risk-adjusted for comparison between care regions.

RESULTS

A total of 4231 people died from COPD. During the last 30 days of life, 60% was admitted to hospital and 11.8% received specialized palliative care. Large regional variation was found in specialized palliative care use (4.0%-32.0%) and diagnostic testing in the last 30 days of life (44.0%-69.7%). Based on best performing quartile scores, relative standards were set (e.g., ≤54.9% for diagnostic testing).

CONCLUSION

Our study found indications of inappropriate end-of-life care in people with COPD, such as high percentages of diagnostic testing and hospital admissions and low proportions receiving specialized palliative care. Risk-adjusted variation between regions was high for several QIs, indicating the usefulness of relative performance standards to improve quality of end-of-life COPD care.

Malnutrition according to ESPEN consensus predicts hospitalizations and long-term mortality in rehabilitation patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Nutritional disorders are frequent in patients with chronic pulmonary obstructive disease (COPD) and have negative health impacts. This study aimed to explore the value of the European Society of Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN) definition of malnutrition (and/or its individual components) to predict hospitalizations and mortality at 2 years, and to determine the prevalence of malnutrition in COPD patients referred to pulmonary rehabilitation.

METHODS

The study was a prospective analysis of 118 patients with COPD free of exacerbations and/or hospital admissions in the previous two months. Main outcome variables were mortality, hospital admissions, and length of stay at 2-year follow-up; main covariates were malnutrition assessment according to the ESPEN definition and its components: unintentional weight loss, body mass index, and fat-free mass index (FFMI). Body composition was assessed by bioimpedance analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and linear regression analyses were performed, adjusting for age and airflow obstruction as potential confounders.

RESULTS

The observed prevalence of malnutrition was 24.6%. Malnutrition was associated with increased mortality risk (HR = 3.9 [95% CI: 1.4-10.62]). FFMI was independently associated with increased mortality (HR = 17.0 [95% CI: 2.24-129.8]), which persisted after adjustment for age and lung function (adjusted HR = 13.0 [95% CI: 1.67-101.7]). Low age-related body mass index was associated with increased risk of hospital admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

Malnutrition according to ESPEN criteria, highly prevalent in patients with stable COPD referred to pulmonary rehabilitation, was associated with 4 times greater mortality risk after 2 years. Low FFMI was associated with a 17-fold increase in mortality risk, suggesting independent predictive value.

India State-Level Disease Burden Initiative CRD Collaborators. The burden of chronic respiratory diseases and their heterogeneity across the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2016

BACKGROUND

India has 18% of the global population and an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases. However, a systematic understanding of the distribution of chronic respiratory diseases and their trends over time is not readily available for all of the states of India. Our aim was to report the trends in the burden of chronic respiratory diseases and the heterogeneity in their distribution in all states of India between 1990 and 2016.

METHODS

Using all accessible data from multiple sources, we estimated the prevalence of major chronic respiratory diseases and the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by them for every state of India from 1990 to 2016 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016. We assessed heterogeneity in the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma across the states of India. The states were categorised into four groups based on their epidemiological transition level (ETL). ETL was defined as the ratio of DALYs from communicable diseases to those from non-communicable diseases and injuries combined, with a low ratio denoting high ETL and vice versa. We also assessed the contribution of risk factors to DALYs due to COPD. We compared the burden of chronic respiratory diseases in India against the global average in GBD 2016. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates.

FINDINGS

The contribution of chronic respiratory diseases to the total DALYs in India increased from 4·5% (95% UI 4·0-4·9) in 1990 to 6·4% (5·8-7·0) in 2016. Of the total global DALYs due to chronic respiratory diseases in 2016, 32·0% occurred in India. COPD and asthma were responsible for 75·6% and 20·0% of the chronic respiratory disease DALYs, respectively, in India in 2016. The number of cases of COPD in India increased from 28·1 million (27·0-29·2) in 1990 to 55·3 million (53·1-57·6) in 2016, an increase in prevalence from 3·3% (3·1-3·4) to 4·2% (4·0-4·4). The age-standardised COPD prevalence and DALY rates in 2016 were highest in the less developed low ETL state group. There were 37·9 million (35·7-40·2) cases of asthma in India in 2016, with similar prevalence in the four ETL state groups, but the highest DALY rate was in the low ETL state group. The highest DALY rates for both COPD and asthma in 2016 were in the low ETL states of Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. The DALYs per case of COPD and asthma were 1·7 and 2·4 times higher in India than the global average in 2016, respectively; most states had higher rates compared with other locations worldwide at similar levels of Socio-demographic Index. Of the DALYs due to COPD in India in 2016, 53·7% (43·1-65·0) were attributable to air pollution, 25·4% (19·5-31·7) to tobacco use, and 16·5% (14·1-19·2) to occupational risks, making these the leading risk factors for COPD.

INTERPRETATION

India has a disproportionately high burden of chronic respiratory diseases. The increasing contribution of these diseases to the overall disease burden across India and the high rate of health loss from them, especially in the less developed low ETL states, highlights the need for focused policy interventions to address this significant cause of disease burden in India.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Cost-effectiveness of roflumilast as an add-on to triple inhaled therapy vs triple inhaled therapy in patients with severe and very severe COPD associated with chronic bronchitis in the UK

Purpose

Patients with severe COPD are at high risk of experiencing disease exacerbations, which require additional treatment and are associated with elevated mortality and increased risk of future exacerbations. Some patients continue to experience exacerbations despite receiving triple inhaled therapy (ICS plus LAMA plus LABA). Roflumilast is recommended by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease as add-on treatment to triple inhaled therapy for these patients. This cost-effectiveness analysis compared costs and quality-adjusted life-years for roflumilast plus triple inhaled therapy vs triple inhaled therapy alone, using data from the REACT and RE2SPOND trials.

Patients and methods

Patients included in the analysis had severe to very severe COPD, FEV1 <50% predicted, symptoms of chronic bronchitis and ≥2 exacerbations per year. Our model was adapted from a previously published and validated model, and the analyses conducted from a UK National Health Service perspective. A scenario analysis considered a subset of patients who had experienced at least one COPD-related hospitalization within the previous year.

Results

Roflumilast as add-on to triple inhaled therapy was associated with non-significant reductions in rates of both moderate and severe exacerbations compared with triple inhaled therapy alone. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for roflumilast as add-on to triple inhaled therapy was £24,976. In patients who had experienced previous hospitalization, roflumilast was associated with a non-significant reduction in the rate of moderate exacerbations, and a statistically significant reduction in the rate of severe exacerbations. The ICER for roflumilast in this population was £7,087.

Conclusions

Roflumilast is a cost-effective treatment option for patients with severe or very severe COPD, chronic bronchitis, and a history of exacerbations. The availability of roflumilast as add-on treatment addresses an important unmet need in this patient population.

[Prognostic markers for the development of adverse outcomes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and chronic heart failure]

AIM

To identify markers of adverse outcomes in patients with a combination of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic heart failure (CHF).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

35 patients with COPD (without an anamnesis of coronary heart disease), 68 patients with COPD and CHF, 28 patients with CHF of ischemic genesis who were on treatment at the State Regional Clinical Hospital of Saratov were examined. The levels of the N-terminal fragment of the natriuretic peptide, galectin-3, the highly sensitive C-reactive protein, the proteins that bind fatty acids, the stiffness parameters of the arterial wall were determined; echocardiography was performed, calculated the index of comorbidity of Charlson. A year after entering the study, patients or their relatives were interviewed for their adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

The combination of COPD and CHF is accompanied by an increase in the likelihood of the development of heart failure decompensation compared with the isolated course of COPD. The main causes of death of patients with combined pathology were respiratory failure and cardiovascular complications. Decompensation of CHF was 3,6 times more likely in patients with COPD and CHF of ischemic origin than in patients without previous myocardial infarction. The risk group the development of acute decompensation of heart failure within the next year is composed of patients with COPD and CHF having 3-4 functional classes of CHF, signs of decompensation in the small circulation, angina pectoris, past myocardial infarction. The most significant prognostic echocardiographic parameters were marked dilatation of the left auricles, reduction of the left ventricular ejection fraction less than 45%. The development of cardiovascular complications in patients with COPD and CHF is interrelated with an increase in arterial rigidity. The increase in total mortality is associated with the severity of heart failure and increased 24-hour arterial rigidity.

CONCLUSION

The obtained results will allow to form high-risk groups and optimize the treatment-diagnostic process.

Effects of a person-centred telephone-support in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and/or chronic heart failure - A randomized controlled trial

Purpose

To evaluate the effects of person-centred support via telephone in two chronically ill patient groups, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and/or chronic heart failure (CHF).

Method

221 patients ≥ 50 years with COPD and/or CHF were randomized to usual care vs. usual care plus a person-centred telephone-support intervention and followed for six months. Patients in the intervention group were telephoned by a registered nurse initially to co-create a person-centred health plan with the patient and subsequently to discuss and evaluate the plan. The primary outcome measure was a composite score comprising General Self-Efficacy (GSE), re-hospitalization and death. Patients were classified as deteriorated if GSE had decreased by ≥ 5 points, or if they had been re-admitted to hospital for unscheduled reasons related to COPD and/or CHF or if they had died.

Results

At six-month follow-up no difference in the composite score was found between the two study groups (57.6%, n = 68 vs. 46.6%, n = 48; OR = 1.6, 95% CI: 0.9–2.7; P = 0.102) in the intention-to-treat analysis (n = 221); however, significantly more patients in the control group showed a clinically important decrease in GSE (≥ 5 units) (22.9%, n = 27 vs. 9.7%, n = 10; OR = 2.8, 95% CI: 1.3–6.0; P = 0.011). There were 49 clinical events (14 deaths, 35 re-admissions) in the control group and 41 in the intervention group (9 deaths, 32 re-admissions). Per-protocol analysis (n = 202) of the composite score showed that more patients deteriorated in the control group than in the intervention group (57.6%, n = 68 vs. 42.9%, n = 36; OR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.0–3.2; P = 0.039).

Conclusion

Person-centred support via telephone mitigates worsening self-efficacy without increasing the risk of clinical events in chronically ill patients with CHF and/or COPD. This indicates that a patient-healthcare professional partnership may be established without the need for face-to-face consultations, even in vulnerable patient groups.

Trial registration

ISRCTN.comISRCTN55562827.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Off-Pump Coronary Surgery

PURPOSE

To determine to what extent chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) affects mortality and morbidity rates in patients treated with off-pump coronary artery bypass graft (CABG).

METHODS

A total of 321 patients treated with off-pump CABG were included in the present study. Of the 321 patients, 46 patients had COPD and they were designated as Group 1 and the remaining 275 patients did not have COPD and they were considered as Group 2. We compared the data obtained from the patients in both groups.

RESULTS

While preoperative spirometry values and arterial blood gas oxygen saturation levels were significantly lower, the partial values of carbon dioxide were higher in Group 1. Likewise, extubation time, the amount of drainage and blood transfusion, inotropic support, prolonged intubation, pulmonary complications, the use of bronchodilators, and steroids were statistically higher in Group 1 when compared with Group 2. Overall, there was no marked difference between the two groups in terms of mortality incidence.

CONCLUSION

We found similar morbidity and mortality rates among the patients with COPD and without COPD when they were treated with off-pump CABG. Therefore, the present results indicate that the presence of COPD is not associated with in-hospital mortality or severe morbidity post-CABG by off-pump approach.

Ambient air pollution of particles and gas pollutants, and the predicted health risks from long-term exposure to PM2.5 in Zhejiang province, China

In recent years, ambient air has been severely contaminated by particulate matters (PMs) and some gas pollutants (nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂)) in China, and many studies have demonstrated that exposure to these pollutants can induce great adverse impacts on human health. The concentrations of the pollutants were much higher in winter than those in summer, and the average concentrations in this studied area were lower than those in northern China. In the comparison between high-resolution emission inventory and spatial distribution of PM_2.5, significant positive linear correlation was found. Though the pollutants had similar trends, NO₂ and SO₂ delayed with 1 h to PM_2.5. Besides, PM_2.5 had a lag time of 1 h to temperature and relative humidity. Significant linear correlation was found among pollutants and meteorological conditions, suggesting the impact of meteorological conditions on ambient air pollution other than emission. For the 24-h trend, lowest concentrations of PM_2.5, NO₂, and SO₂ were found around 15:00-18:00. In 2015, the population attributable fractions (PAFs) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer (LC), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) due to the exposure to PM_2.5 in Zhejiang province were 25.82, 38.94, 17.73, 22.32, and 31.14%, respectively. The population-weighted mortality due to PM_2.5 exposure in Zhejiang province was lower than the average level of the whole country-China.

The effect of emphysema on readmission and survival among smokers with heart failure

Heart Failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are morbid diseases that often coexist. In patients with coexisting disease, COPD is an independent risk factor for readmission and mortality. However, spirometry is often inaccurate in those with active heart failure. Therefore, we investigated the association between the presence of emphysema on computed tomography (CT) and readmission rates in smokers admitted with heart failure (HF). The cohort included a consecutive group of smokers discharged with HF from a tertiary center between January 1, 2014 and April 1, 2014 who also had a CT of the chest for dyspnea. The primary endpoint was any readmission for HF before April 1, 2016; secondary endpoints were 30-day readmission for HF, length of stay and all-cause mortality. Over the study period, there were 225 inpatient smokers with HF who had a concurrent chest CT (155 [69%] males, age 69±11 years, ejection fraction [EF] 46±18%, 107 [48%] LVEF of < 50%). Emphysema on CT was present in 103 (46%) and these were older, had a lower BMI, more pack-years, less diabetes and an increased afterload. During a follow-up of 2.1 years, there were 110 (49%) HF readmissions and 55 (24%) deaths. When separated by emphysema on CT, any readmission, 30-day readmission, length of stay and mortality were higher among HF patients with emphysema. In multivariable regression, emphysema by CT was associated with a two-fold higher (adjusted HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.41–3.15, p < 0.001) risk of readmission and a trend toward increased mortality (adjusted HR 1.70 95% CI 0.86–3.34, p = 0.12). In conclusion, emphysema by CT is a frequent finding in smokers hospitalized with HF and is associated with adverse outcomes in HF. This under recognized group of patients with both emphysema and heart failure may benefit from improved recognition and characterization of their co-morbid disease processes and optimization of therapies for their lung disease.