Clostridium difficile classification overestimates hospital-acquired infections

BACKGROUND

Clostridium difficile infections occur frequently among hospitalized patients, with some infections acquired in hospital and others in the community. International guidelines classify cases as hospital-acquired if symptom onset occurs more than two days after admission. This classification informs surveillance and infection control, but has not been verified by empirical or modelling studies.

AIM

To assess current classification of C. difficile acquisition using a simulation model as a reference standard.

METHODS

C. difficile transmission was simulated in a range of hospital scenarios. The sensitivity, specificity and precision of classifications that use cut-offs ranging from 0.25 h to 40 days were calculated. The optimal cut-off that correctly estimated the proportion of cases that were hospital acquired and the balanced cut-off that had equal sensitivity and specificity were identified.

FINDINGS

The recommended two-day cut-off overestimated the incidence of hospital-acquired cases in all scenarios and by >100% in the base scenario. The two-day cut-off had good sensitivity (96%) but poor specificity (48%) and precision (52%) to identify cases acquired during the current hospitalization. A five-day cut-off was balanced, and a six-day cut-off was optimal in the base scenario. The optimal and balanced cut-offs were more than two days for nearly all scenarios considered (ranges: four to nine days and two to eight days, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Current guidelines for classifying C. difficile infections overestimate the proportion of cases acquired in hospital in all model scenarios. To reduce misclassification bias, an infection should be classified as being acquired prior to admission if symptoms begin within five days of admission.

Spatiotemporal transmission and socio-climatic factors related to paediatric tuberculosis in north-western Ethiopia

The burden of tuberculosis (TB) in children reflects continuing and recent transmission within a population. This study aimed to identify spatiotemporal and socio-climatic factors associated with paediatric TB in north-western Ethiopia. Multivariate Poisson regression models were computed using a Bayesian framework. Estimates of parameters were generated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. A total of 2,240 children aged under 15 years diagnosed with TB during the years 2013- 2016 were included in the analysis. The annual TB incidence rates were 44 and 28 per 100,000 children, for children aged under 15 and 5 years, respectively. Spatial clustering of TB was observed in the border area of north-western Ethiopia. The spatio-temporal transmission of childhood TB was found to be associated with district level socio-climatic factors such as urbanisation [relative risk (RR): 1.8; 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.2, 2.6], lower educational status (RR: 1.5; 95% CrI: 1.0, 2.1), a high percentage of internal migration (RR: 1.3; 95% CrI: 1.0, 1.6), high temperature (RR: 1.3; 95% CrI: 1.0, 1.7) and high rainfall (RR: 1.5; 95% CrI: 1.1, 2.0). We conclude that interventions targeting hotspot districts with a high proportion of childhood TB are important to reduce TB transmission in northwest Ethiopia.

Spatiotemporal distribution and population at risk of soil-transmitted helminth infections following an eight-year school-based deworming programme in Burundi, 2007-2014

Background

Investigating the effect of successive annual deworming rounds on the spatiotemporal distribution of infection prevalence and numbers at risk for soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) can help identify communities nearing elimination and those needing further interventions. In this study, we aim to quantify the impact of an 8-year mass drug administration (MDA) programme (from 2007 to 2014) on the spatiotemporal distribution of prevalence of STH infections and to estimate the number of school-aged children infected with STHs in Burundi.

Methods

During annual longitudinal school-based surveys in Burundi between 2007 and 2011, STH infection and anthropometric data for a total of 40,656 children were collected; these data were supplemented with data from a national survey conducted in 2014. Bayesian model based geostatistics (MBG) were used to generate predictive prevalence maps for each STH species and year. The numbers of children at-risk of infection per district between 2008 and 2014 were estimated as the product of the predictive prevalence maps and population density maps.

Results

Overall, the degree of spatial clustering of STH infections decreased between 2008 and 2011; in 2014 the geographical clusters of all STH infections reappeared. The reduction in prevalence was small for Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura in the centre and central north of the country. Our predictive prevalence maps for hookworm indicate a reduction in prevalence along the periphery of the country. The predicted number of children infected with any STH species decreased substantially between 2007 and 2011, but in 2014 there was an increase in the predicted number of children infected with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura. In 2014, the districts with the highest predicted number of children infected with A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworms were Kibuye district (n = 128,903), Mabayi district (n = 35,302) and Kiremba (n = 87,511), respectively.

Conclusions

While the MDA programme in Burundi resulted in a reduction in STH prevalence, this reduction was spatiotemporally heterogeneous, with some pockets of high prevalence remaining, suggesting that treatment coverage and complementary interventions should be evaluated to improve impact.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-017-2505-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Land cover change during a period of extensive landscape restoration in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

Environmental change has been a topic of great interest over the last century due to its potential impact on ecosystem services that are fundamental for sustainable development and human well-being. Here, we assess and quantify the spatial and temporal variation in land cover in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), China. With high-resolution (30m) imagery from Landsat 4/5-TM and 8-OLI for the entire region, land cover maps of the region were created to explore local land cover changes in a spatially explicit way. The results suggest that land cover changes observed in NHAR from 1991 to 2015 reflect the main goals of a national policy implemented there to recover degraded landscapes. Forest, herbaceous vegetation and cultivated land increased by approximately 410,200ha, 708,600ha and 164,300ha, respectively. The largest relative land cover change over the entire study period was the increase in forestland. Forest growth resulted mainly from the conversion of herbaceous vegetation (53.8%) and cultivated land (30.8%). Accurate information on the local patterns of land cover in NHAR may contribute to the future establishment of better landscape policies for ecosystem management and protection. Spatially explicit information on land cover change may also help decision makers to understand and respond appropriately to emerging environmental risks for the local population.

Status of soil-transmitted helminth infections in schoolchildren in Laguna Province, the Philippines: Determined by parasitological and molecular diagnostic techniques

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are the most common parasitic infections in impoverished communities, particularly among children. Current STH control is through school-based mass drug administration (MDA), which in the Philippines is done twice annually. As expected, MDA has decreased the intensity and prevalence of STH over time. As a result, the common Kato Katz (KK) thick smear method of detecting STH is less effective because it lacks sensitivity in low intensity infections, making it difficult to measure the impact of deworming programs.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A cross-sectional study was carried out over a four-week period from October 27, 2014 until November 20, 2014 in Laguna province, the Philippines. Stool samples were collected from 263 schoolchildren, to determine the prevalence of STH and compare diagnostic accuracy of multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) with the KK. A large discrepancy in the prevalence between the two techniques was noted for the detection of at least one type of STH infection (33.8% by KK vs. 78.3% by qPCR), Ascaris lumbricoides (20.5% by KK vs. 60.8% by qPCR) and Trichuris trichiura (23.6% by KK vs. 38.8% by qPCR). Considering the combined results of both methods, the prevalence of at least one type of helminth infection, A. lumbricoides, and T. trichiura were 83.3%, 67.7%, and 53.6%, respectively. Sensitivity of the qPCR for detecting at least one type of STH infection, A. lumbricoides, and T. trichiura were 94.1%, 89.9%, and 72.3% respectively; whereas KK sensitivity was 40.6%, 30.3%, and 44.0%, respectively. The qPCR method also detected infections with Ancylostoma spp. (4.6%), Necator americanus (2.3%), and Strongyloides stercoralis (0.8%) that were missed by KK.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

qPCR may provide new and important diagnostic information to improve assessment of the effectiveness and impact of integrated control strategies particularly in areas where large-scale STH control has led to low prevalence and/or intensity of infection.

Treatment outcomes of patients with multidrug-resistant and extensively drug resistant tuberculosis in Hunan Province, China

BACKGROUND

The worldwide emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) has posed additional challenges for global tuberculosis (TB) control efforts, as limited treatment options are available and treatment outcomes are often sub-optimal. This study determined treatment outcomes among a cohort of MDR-TB and XDR-TB patients in Hunan Province, China, and identified factors associated with poor treatment outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study using data obtained from medical records of TB patients in Hunan Chest Hospital, and from the internet-based TB management information system managed by the Tuberculosis Control Institute of Hunan Province, for the period 2011 to 2014. Treatment outcomes were assessed for patients diagnosed with MDR-TB (TB resistant to at least isoniazid and rifampicin) and XDR-TB (MDR-TB plus resistance to any fluoroquinolone and at least 1 second-line injectable drug). Cumulative incidence functions were used to estimate time to events (i.e. poor treatment outcomes, loss to follow-up, and unfavourable treatment outcomes); and a competing-risks survival regression model was used to identify predictors of treatment outcomes.

RESULT

Of 481 bacteriologically-confirmed patients, with a mean age of 40 years (standard deviation SD ± 13 years), 10 (2%) had XDR-TB and the remainder (471; 98%) had MDR-TB. For the entire cohort, treatment success was 57% (n = 275); 58% (n = 272) for MDR-TB and 30% (n = 3) for XDR-TB. Overall, 27% were lost to follow-up (n = 130), 27% (n = 126) for MDR-TB and 40% (n = 4) for XDR-TB; and 16% had a poor treatment outcome (n = 76), 15% for MDR-TB and 30% (n = 3) for XDR-TB. Of the 10 XDR-TB patients, 3 (30%) completed treatment, 3 (30%) died and 4 (40%) were lost to follow-up. Of the 471 MDR-TB patients, 258 (57%) were cured, 16 (3%) completed treatment, 13 (3%) died, 60 (13%) experienced treatment failure, and 126 (27%) were lost to follow-up. Resistance to ofloxacin was an independent predictor of poor (AHR = 3.1; 95%CI = 1.5, 6.3), and unfavourable (AHR = 1.7; 95%CI = 1.07, 2.9) treatment outcomes. Patients who started treatment during 2011-2012 (AHR = 2.8; 95% CI = 1.5, 5.3) and 2013 (AHR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.2, 3.9) had poorer treatment outcomes compared to patients who started treatment during 2014.

CONCLUSION

Patients with MDR-TB and XDR-TB had low rates of treatment success in Hunan Province, especially among patients who started treatment during 2011 to 2013, with evidence of improved treatment outcomes in 2014. Resistance to ofloxacin was an independent predictor of poor treatment outcomes.

Measuring the Effect of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections on Cognitive Function in Children: Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Evidence

Recently the role of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in children's cognitive developmental impairment has been under scrutiny. We conducted a systematic review of the evidence for associations between STH infections and cognitive function of children using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses protocol. We aimed to identify the domains of cognitive function in three age strata (<24months, 24-59months and ≥60months) and critically appraise the general design protocol of the studies, with a focus on the cognitive function measurement tools used. A total of 42 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria, including 10 studies from a recent Cochrane review. Our findings demonstrate variation in tested domains, lack of consistency in the use of measurement tools and analysis of results. Cognitive function measures in children aged under 59months have been mainly limited to domains of gross motor, fine motor and language skills, whereas in children aged 60months and above most studies tested domains such as memory and processing speed. Even within the same age group the results on the association between STH infections and measures of cognitive development were often conflicting. The current study highlights the need for methodological consensus in the use of measurement tools and data analysis protocols if the effect of STH infections on cognitive function domains in children is to be correctly established. This will be an imperative next step to generate conclusive evidence of the role of STH infections in cognitive development in children.

Hospital effect on infections after four major surgical procedures: outlier and volume-outcome analysis using all-inclusive state data

BACKGROUND

Hospital volume is known to have a direct impact on the outcomes of major surgical procedures. However, it is unclear if the evidence applies specifically to surgical site infections.

AIMS

To determine if there are procedure-specific hospital outliers [with higher surgical site infection rates (SSIRs)] for four major surgical procedures, and to examine if hospital volume is associated with SSIRs in the context of outlier performance in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

METHODS

Adults who underwent one of four surgical procedures (colorectal, joint replacement, spinal and cardiac procedures) at a NSW healthcare facility between 2002 and 2013 were included. The hospital volume for each of the four surgical procedures was categorized into tertiles (low, medium and high). Multi-variable logistic regression models were built to estimate the expected SSIR for each procedure. The expected SSIRs were used to compute indirect standardized SSIRs which were then plotted in funnel plots to identify hospital outliers.

FINDINGS

One hospital was identified to be an overall outlier (higher SSIRs for three of the four procedures performed in its facilities), whereas two hospitals were outliers for one specific procedure throughout the entire study period. Low-volume facilities performed the best for colorectal surgery and worst for joint replacement and cardiac surgery. One high-volume facility was an outlier for spinal surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical site infections seem to be mainly a procedure-specific, as opposed to a hospital-specific, phenomenon in NSW. The association between hospital volume and SSIRs differs for different surgical procedures.

Investigations into the association between soil-transmitted helminth infections, haemoglobin and child development indices in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste

BACKGROUND

Timor-Leste has a high prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections. High proportions of the population have been reported as being anaemic, and extremely high proportions of children as stunted or wasted. There have been no published analyses of the contributions of STH to these morbidity outcomes in Timor-Leste.

METHODS

Using baseline cross-sectional data from 24 communities (18 communities enrolled in a cluster randomised controlled trial, and identically-collected data from six additional communities), analyses of the association between STH infections and community haemoglobin and child development indices were undertaken. Stool samples were assessed for STH using qPCR and participant haemoglobin, heights and weights were measured. Questionnaires were administered to collect demographic and socioeconomic data. Intensity of infection was categorised using correlational analysis between qPCR quantification cycle values and eggs per gram of faeces equivalents, with algorithms generated from seeding experiments. Mixed-effects logistic and multinomial regression were used to assess the association between STH infection intensity classes and anaemia, and child stunting, wasting and underweight.

RESULTS

Very high stunting (60%), underweight (60%), and wasting (20%) in children, but low anaemia prevalence (15%), were found in the study communities. STH were not significantly associated with morbidity outcomes. Male children and those in the poorest socioeconomic quintile were significantly more likely to be moderately and severely stunted. Male children were significantly more likely than female children to be severely underweight. Increasing age was also a risk factor for being underweight. Few risk factors emerged for wasting in these analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

According to World Health Organization international reference standards, levels of child morbidity in this population constitute a public health emergency, although the international reference standards need to be critically evaluated for their applicability in Timor-Leste. Strategies to improve child development and morbidity outcomes, for example via nutrition and iron supplementation programmes, are recommended for these communities. Despite the apparent lack of an association from STH in driving anaemia, stunting, wasting and underweight, high endemicity suggests a need for STH control strategies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12614000680662 ; retrospectively registered.

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) and environmental risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth intensity of infection in Timor-Leste, using real time PCR

Background

No investigations have been undertaken of risk factors for intensity of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection in Timor-Leste. This study provides the first analysis of risk factors for intensity of STH infection, as determined by quantitative PCR (qPCR), examining a broad range of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and environmental factors, among communities in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste.

Methods

A baseline cross-sectional survey of 18 communities was undertaken as part of a cluster randomised controlled trial, with additional identically-collected data from six other communities. qPCR was used to assess STH infection from stool samples, and questionnaires administered to collect WASH, demographic, and socioeconomic data. Environmental information was obtained from open-access sources and linked to infection outcomes. Mixed-effects multinomial logistic regression was undertaken to assess risk factors for intensity of Necator americanus and Ascaris infection.

Results

2152 participants provided stool and questionnaire information for this analysis. In adjusted models incorporating WASH, demographic and environmental variables, environmental variables were generally associated with infection intensity for both N. americanus and Ascaris spp. Precipitation (in centimetres) was associated with increased risk of moderate-intensity (adjusted relative risk [ARR] 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9–19.3) and heavy-intensity (ARR 6.6; 95% CI 3.1–14.1) N. americanus infection, as was sandy-loam soil around households (moderate-intensity ARR 2.1; 95% CI 1.0–4.3; heavy-intensity ARR 2.7; 95% CI 1.6–4.5; compared to no infection). For Ascaris, alkaline soil around the household was associated with reduced risk of moderate-intensity infection (ARR 0.21; 95% CI 0.09–0.51), and heavy-intensity infection (ARR 0.04; 95% CI 0.01–0.25). Few WASH risk factors were significant.

Conclusion

In this high-prevalence setting, strong risk associations with environmental factors indicate that anthelmintic treatment alone will be insufficient to interrupt STH transmission, as conditions are favourable for ongoing environmental transmission. Integrated STH control strategies should be explored as a priority.

We present a detailed analysis of WASH, environmental and demographic factors associated with intensity of STH infection in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste, using qPCR. Investigation of risk factors for intensity of STH infection is rarely undertaken, and prior analyses have used microscopic-based eggs per gram of faeces (epg) measures, which are of lower diagnostic accuracy than qPCR. Additionally, few analyses have investigated combined WASH and environmental risk factors in association with STH. This is important due to the extensive potential interrelatedness of environmental, social, behavioural and host factors in any given setting influencing STH survival and transmission. This analysis uses categorical intensity of infection variables for Necator americanus and Ascaris spp., and advanced statistical modelling to adjust for multinomial intensity outcomes, dependency of observations, effects of poverty, and confounding from other measured variables. As such, this analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factors for STH in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste. This is of importance for development of policy and programmatic decisions; risk factors need to be considered not only for their clinical and statistical significance, but more broadly in terms of what may represent modifiable pathways for STH transmission.

Population-level effects of risk factors for bovine respiratory disease in Australian feedlot cattle

Results obtained from a nationwide longitudinal study were extended to estimate the population-level effects of selected risk factors on the incidence of bovine respiratory disease (BRD) during the first 50days at risk in medium-sized to large Australian feedlots. Population attributable fractions (PAF) and population attributable risks (PAR) were used to rank selected risk factors in order of importance from the perspective of the Australian feedlot industry within two mutually exclusive categories: 'intervention' risk factors had practical strategies that feedlot managers could implement to avoid exposure of cattle to adverse levels of the risk factor and a precise estimate of the population-level effect while 'others' did not. An alternative method was also used to quantify the expected effects of simultaneously preventing exposure to multiple management-related factors whilst not changing exposure to factors that were more difficult to modify. The most important 'intervention' risk factors were shared pen water (PAF: 0.70, 95% credible interval: 0.45-0.83), breed (PAF: 0.67, 95% credible interval: 0.54-0.77), the animal's prior lifetime history of mixing with cattle from other herds (PAF: 0.53, 95% credible interval: 0.30-0.69), timing of the animal's move to the vicinity of the feedlot (PAF: 0.45, 95% credible interval: 0.17-0.68), the presence of Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 1 (BVDV-1) in the animal's cohort (PAF: 0.30, 95% credible interval: 0.04-0.50), the number of study animals in the animal's group 13days before induction (PAF: 0.30, 95% credible interval: 0.10-0.44) and induction weight (PAF: 0.16, 95% credible interval: 0.09-0.23). Other important risk factors identified and prioritised for further research were feedlot region, season of induction and cohort formation patterns. An estimated 82% of BRD incidence was attributable to management-related risk factors, whereby the lowest risk category of a composite management-related variable comprised animals in the lowest risk category of at least four of the five component variables (shared pen water, mixing, move timing, BVDV-1 in the cohort and the number of animals in the animal's group-13). This indicated that widespread adoption of appropriate interventions including ensuring pen water is not shared between pens, optimising animal mixing before induction, timing of the animal's move to the vicinity of the feedlot, and group size prior to placing animals in feedlot pens, and avoiding BVDV-1 in cohorts could markedly reduce the incidence of BRD in medium-sized to large Australian feedlots.

Differential effect of mass deworming and targeted deworming for soil-transmitted helminth control in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminth infections are a major global health issue, causing substantial morbidity in the world's poorest populations. Regular delivery of anthelmintic drugs is the mainstay for global soil-transmitted helminth control. Deworming campaigns are often targeted to school-aged children, who are at high risk of soil-transmitted-helminth-associated morbidity. However, findings from modelling studies suggest that deworming campaigns should be expanded community-wide for effective control of soil-transmitted helminth transmission. We aimed to do a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the effect of mass (community-wide) and targeted (children only) anthelmintic delivery strategies on soil-transmitted helminth prevalence in school-aged children.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science for articles published on or before Nov 5, 2015, reporting soil-transmitted helminth prevalence before and after distribution of albendazole or mebendazole, either targeted to children or delivered to the whole community. We excluded studies in which drug delivery was restricted to infected individuals or to a subset of the community or school, or if follow-up time was less than 3 months or greater than 18 months after drug delivery. We extracted data on study year, country, drug administration strategy, drug dose, number of deworming rounds, treatment coverage, diagnostic method, follow-up interval, and soil-transmitted helminth prevalence before and after treatment. We used inverse variance weighted generalised linear models, with prevalence reduction as the outcome variable, to examine the effect of mass versus targeted drug administration, as well as baseline prevalence, number of drug doses, and follow-up time. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016026929.

FINDINGS

Of 10 538 studies identified, 56 studies were eligible for the systematic review and 38 of these were included in meta-analysis. Results of the regression models showed that mass deworming led to a significantly greater reduction in prevalence in children than targeted deworming, for both hookworm (odds ratio 4·6, 95% CI 1·8-11·6; p=0·0020) and Ascaris lumbricoides (16·4, 2·1-125·8; p=0·0092), with no effect seen for Trichuris trichiura. There was significant heterogeneity across studies; for targeted studies I² was 97% for A lumbricoides and hookworm, and 96% for T trichiura, and for mass studies, I² was 89% for A lumbricoides, 49% for hookworm, and 66% for T trichiura.

INTERPRETATION

The results of this meta-analysis suggest that expanding deworming programmes community-wide is likely to reduce the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in the high-risk group of school-aged children, which could lead to improved morbidity outcomes. These findings are in support of recent calls for re-evaluation of global soil-transmitted helminth control guidelines.

FUNDING

None.

Malaria burden and costs of intensified control in Bhutan, 2006-14: an observational study and situation analysis

INTRODUCTION

The number of malaria cases has fallen in Bhutan in the past two decades, and the country has a goal of complete elimination of malaria by 2016. The aims of this study are to ascertain the trends and burden of malaria, the costs of intensified control activities, the main donors of funding for the control activities, and the costs of different preventive measures in the pre-elimination phase (2006-14) in Bhutan.

METHODS

We undertook a descriptive analysis of malaria surveillance data from 2006 to 2014, using data from the Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) run by the Department of Public Health of Bhutan's Ministry of Health. Malaria morbidity and mortality in local Bhutanese people and foreign nationals were analysed. The cost of different control and preventive measures were calculated, and the average numbers of long-lasting insecticidal nests per person were estimated.

FINDINGS

A total of 5491 confirmed malaria cases occurred in Bhutan between 2006 and 2014. By 2013, there was an average of one long-lasting insecticidal net for every 1·51 individuals. The cost of procuring long-lasting insecticidal nets accounted for more than 90% of the total cost of prevention measures. The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria was the main international donor, accounting for more than 80% of the total funds.

INTERPRETATION

The malaria burden in Bhutan decreased significantly during the study period with high coverage of long-lasting insecticidal nets. The foreseeable challenges that require national attention to maintain a malaria-free status after elimination are importation of malaria, especially from India; continued protection of the population in endemic districts through complete coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying; and exploration of local funding modalities post-elimination in the event of a reduction in international funding.

FUNDING

None.

Gut microbiota disturbance during helminth infection: can it affect cognition and behaviour of children?

Background

Bidirectional signalling between the brain and the gastrointestinal tract is regulated at neural, hormonal, and immunological levels. Recent studies have shown that helminth infections can alter the normal gut microbiota. Studies have also shown that the gut microbiota is instrumental in the normal development, maturation and function of the brain. The pathophysiological pathways by which helminth infections contribute to altered cognitive function remain poorly understood.

Discussion

We put forward the hypothesis that gastrointestinal infections with parasitic worms, such as helminths, induce an imbalance of the gut-brain axis, which, in turn, can detrimentally manifest in brain development. Factors supporting this hypothesis are: 1) research focusing on intelligence and school performance in school-aged children has shown helminth infections to be associated with cognitive impairment, 2) disturbances in gut microbiota have been shown to be associated with important cognitive developmental effects, and 3) helminth infections have been shown to alter the gut microbiota structure. Evidence on the complex interactions between extrinsic (parasite) and intrinsic (host-derived) factors has been synthesised and discussed.

Summary

While evidence in favour of the helminth-gut microbiota-central nervous system hypothesis is circumstantial, it would be unwise to rule it out as a possible mechanism by which gastrointestinal helminth infections induce childhood cognitive morbidity. Further empirical studies are necessary to test an indirect effect of helminth infections on the modulation of mood and behaviour through its effects on the gut microbiota.

Treatment outcomes in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in north-west Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is an emerging public health problem in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess MDR-TB treatment outcomes and determine predictors of poor treatment outcomes in north-west Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using all MDR-TB patients who were enrolled at Gondar University Hospital since the establishment of the MDR-TB programme in 2010. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify the predictors of time to poor treatment outcomes, which were defined as death or treatment failure.

RESULTS

Of the 242 patients who had complete records, 131 (54%) were cured, 23 (9%) completed treatment, 31 (13%) died, four (2%) experienced treatment failure, 27 (11%) were lost to follow-up, six (2%) transferred out, and 20 (8%) were still on treatment at the time of analysis. The overall cumulative probability survival of the patients at the end of treatment (which was 24 months in duration) was 80% (95% CI: 70%, 87%). The proportion of patients with poor treatment outcomes increased over time from 6% per person-year (PY) during 2010-2012, to 12% per PY during 2013-2015. The independent predictors of time to poor treatment outcome were being anaemic [AHR = 4.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 15.9] and being a farmer [AHR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.0, 4.9].

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, in north-west Ethiopia, the MDR-TB treatment success rate was high. However, poor treatment outcomes have gradually increased since 2012. Being a farmer and being anaemic were associated with poor treatment outcomes. It would be beneficial to assess other risk factors that might affect treatment outcomes such as co-infection with malaria, poverty and other socio-economic and biological risk factors.

Investigating the differential impact of school and community-based integrated control programmes for soil-transmitted helminths in Timor-Leste: the (S)WASH-D for Worms pilot study protocol

Background

Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions represent an important component of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection control, alongside the administration of anthelmintic drugs, which are generally targeted to school-aged children. Recent modelling studies have suggested that STH control programmes should be broadened to include all age groups across the community. We describe the protocol for a pilot study investigating the impact of school-versus-community-based delivery of integrated WASH and deworming programmes on STH infections in school-aged children in Timor-Leste.

Methods

The (S)WASH-D for Worms pilot is a two-arm, non-randomised cluster intervention study. The aims are to determine feasibility and acceptability of the intervention and study procedures and to establish proof of principle for the hypothesis that STH control programmes directed to the entire community will lead to greater reductions in STH infections in children than programmes directed only to school-aged children. Of the six participating communities, three receive a school-based integrated WASH and deworming programme and three additionally receive a community-based integrated WASH and deworming programme. The primary outcomes are the proportions of eligible children who enrol in the study and participate in the data collection, and outcomes relating to WASH and deworming programme completion, coverage, and use. Secondary outcomes are the cumulative incidence and mean intensity of STH infection in school-aged children at 6-month follow-up, mean haemoglobin concentration and several anthropometric indices. Results will inform the design of a cluster-randomised controlled trial (RCT).

Discussion

This pilot study is being conducted in preparation for a cluster-RCT investigating the differential impact of school- and community-based integrated STH control programmes on STH infections in school-aged children. It aims to establish feasibility and proof of principle, while results of the subsequent RCT could have significant implications for global STH control policy.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12615001012561

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40814-016-0109-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Risk assessment of malaria in land border regions of China in the context of malaria elimination

Background

Cross-border malaria transmission poses a challenge for countries to achieve and maintain malaria elimination. Because of a dramatic increase of cross-border population movement between China and 14 neighbouring countries, the malaria epidemic risk in China’s land border regions needs to be understood.

Methods

In this study, individual case-based epidemiological data on malaria in the 136 counties of China with international land borders, from 2011 to 2014, were extracted from the National Infectious Disease Information System. The Plasmodium species, seasonality, spatiotemporal distribution and changing features of imported and indigenous cases were analysed using descriptive spatial and temporal methods.

Results

A total of 1948 malaria cases were reported, with 1406 (72.2%) imported cases and 542 (27.8%) indigenous cases. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species, with 1536 malaria cases occurrence (78.9%), following by Plasmodium falciparum (361 cases, 18.5%), and the others (51 cases, 2.6%). The magnitude and geographic distribution of malaria in land border counties shrunk sharply during the elimination period. Imported malaria cases were with a peak of 546 cases in 2011, decreasing yearly in the following years. The number of counties with imported cases decreased from 28 counties in 2011 to 26 counties in 2014. Indigenous malaria cases presented a markedly decreasing trend, with 319 indigenous cases in 2011 reducing to only 33 indigenous cases in 2014. The number of counties with indigenous cases reduced from 26 counties in 2011 to 10 counties in 2014. However, several bordering counties of Yunnan province adjacent to Myanmar reported indigenous malaria cases in the four consecutive years from 2011 to 2014.

Conclusions

The scale and extent of malaria occurrence in the international land border counties of China decreased dramatically during the elimination period. However, several high-risk counties, especially along the China–Myanmar border, still face a persistent risk of malaria introduction and transmission. The study emphasizes the importance and urgency of cross-border cooperation between neighbouring countries to jointly face malaria threats to elimination goals.

Water, sanitation and hygiene related risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth and Giardia duodenalis infections in rural communities in Timor-Leste

There is little evidence on prevalence or risk factors for soil transmitted helminth infections in Timor-Leste. This study describes the epidemiology, water, sanitation and hygiene, and socioeconomic risk factors of STH and intestinal protozoa amongst communities in Manufahi District, Timor-Leste. As part of a cluster randomised controlled trial, a baseline cross-sectional survey was conducted across 18 villages, with data from six additional villages. Stool samples were assessed for soil transmitted helminth and protozoal infections using quantitative PCR (qPCR) and questionnaires administered to collect water, sanitation and hygiene and socioeconomic data. Risk factors for infection were assessed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression, stratified by age group (preschool, school-aged and adult). Overall, soil transmitted helminth prevalence was 69% (95% Confidence Interval 67-71%), with Necator americanus being most common (60%; 95% Confidence Interval 58-62%) followed by Ascaris spp. (24%; 95% Confidence Interval 23-26%). Ascaris-N. americanus co-infection was common (17%; 95% Confidence Interval 15%-18%). Giardia duodenalis was the main protozoan identified (13%; 95% Confidence Interval 11-14%). Baseline water, sanitation and hygiene infrastructure and behaviours were poor. Although risk factors varied by age of participants and parasite species, risk factors for N. americanus infection included, generally, age in years, male sex, and socioeconomic quintile. Risk factors for Ascaris included age in years for children, and piped water to the yard for adults. In this first known assessment of community-based prevalence and associated risk factors in Timor-Leste, soil transmitted helminth infections were highly prevalent, indicating a need for soil transmitted helminth control. Few associations with water, sanitation and hygiene were evident, despite water, sanitation and hygiene being generally poor. In our water, sanitation and hygiene we will investigate implications of improving WASH on soil transmitted helminth infection in impoverished communities.

Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization in two Australian tertiary hospitals, 2012-2014: prospective, repeated cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prevalence and risk factors for asymptomatic toxigenic (TCD) and nontoxigenic Clostridium difficile (NTCD) colonization in a broad cross section of the general hospital population over a 3-year period.

METHODS

Patients without diarrhoea admitted to two Australian tertiary hospitals were randomly selected through six repeated cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2012 and 2014. Stool specimens were cultured under anaerobic conditions, and C. difficile isolates were tested for the presence of toxin genes and ribotyped. Patients were then grouped into noncolonized, TCD colonized or NTCD colonized for identifying risk factors using multinomial logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 1380 asymptomatic patients were enrolled; 76 patients (5.5%) were TCD colonized and 28 (2.0%) were NTCD colonized. There was a decreasing annual trend in TCD colonization, and asymptomatic colonization was more prevalent during the summer than winter months. TCD colonization was associated with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (relative risk ratio (RRR) = 2.20; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-4.14), higher number of admissions in the previous year (RRR = 1.24; 95% CI 1.10-1.39) and antimicrobial exposure during the current admission (RRR = 2.78; 95% CI 1.23-6.28). NTCD colonization was associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (RRR = 3.88; 95% CI 1.66-9.07) and chronic kidney failure (RRR = 5.78; 95% CI 2.29-14.59). Forty-eight different ribotypes were identified, with 014/020 (n = 23), 018 (n = 10) and 056 (n = 6) being the most commonly isolated.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors differ between patients with asymptomatic colonization by toxigenic and nontoxigenic strains. Given that morbidity is largely driven by toxigenic strains, this novel finding has important implications for disease control and prevention.

Malaria elimination in India and regional implications

The malaria situation in India is complex as a result of diverse socio-environmental conditions. India contributes a substantial burden of malaria outside sub-Saharan Africa, with the third highest Plasmodium vivax prevalence in the world. Successful malaria control in India is likely to enhance malaria elimination efforts in the region. Despite modest gains, there are many challenges for malaria elimination in India, including: varied patterns of malaria transmission in different parts of the country demanding area-specific control measures; intense malaria transmission fuelled by favourable climatic and environment factors; varying degrees of insecticide resistance of vectors; antimalarial drug resistance; a weak surveillance system; and poor national coordination of state programmes. Prevention and protection against malaria are low as a result of a weak health-care system, as well as financial and socioeconomic constraints. Additionally, the open borders of India provide a potential route of entry for artesunate-resistant parasites from southeast Asia. This situation calls for urgent dialogue around tackling malaria across borders-between India's states and neighbouring countries-through sharing of information and coordinated control and preventive measures, if we are to achieve the aim of malaria elimination in the region.

Quantifying accessibility and use of improved sanitation: towards a comprehensive indicator of the need for sanitation interventions

To prevent diseases associated with inadequate sanitation and poor hygiene, people needing latrines and behavioural interventions must be identified. We compared two indicators that could be used to identify those people. Indicator 1 of household latrine coverage was a simple Yes/No response to the question “Does your household have a latrine?” Indicator 2 was more comprehensive, combining questions about defecation behaviour with observations of latrine conditions. Using a standardized procedure and questionnaire, trained research assistants collected data from 6,599 residents of 16 rural villages in Indonesia. Indicator 1 identified 30.3% as not having a household latrine, while Indicator 2 identified 56.0% as using unimproved sanitation. Indicator 2 thus identified an additional 1,710 people who were missed by Indicator 1. Those 1,710 people were of lower socioeconomic status (p < 0.001), and a smaller percentage practiced appropriate hand-washing (p < 0.02). These results show how a good indicator of need for sanitation and hygiene interventions can combine evidences of both access and use, from self-reports and objective observation. Such an indicator can inform decisions about sanitation-related interventions and about scaling deworming programmes up or down. Further, a comprehensive and locally relevant indicator allows improved targeting to those most in need of a hygiene-behaviour intervention.

Comparative evaluation of the diagnosis, reporting and investigation of malaria cases in China, 2005-2014: transition from control to elimination for the national malaria programme

Background

The elimination of malaria requires high-quality surveillance data to enable rapid detection and response to individual cases. Evaluation of the performance of a national malaria surveillance system could identify shortcomings which, if addressed, will improve the surveillance program for malaria elimination.

Methods

Case-level data for the period 2005–2014 were extracted from the China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System and Malaria Enhanced Surveillance Information System. The occurrence of cases, accuracy and timeliness of case diagnosis, reporting and investigation, were assessed and compared between the malaria control stage (2005–2010) and elimination stage (2011–2014) in mainland China.

Results

A total of 210 730 malaria cases were reported in mainland China in 2005–2014. The average annual incidence declined dramatically from 2.5 per 100 000 people at the control stage to 0.2 per 100 000 at the elimination stage, but the proportion of migrant cases increased from 9.8 % to 41.0 %. Since the initiation of the National Malaria Elimination Programme in 2010, the overall proportion of cases diagnosed by laboratory testing consistently improved, with the highest of 99.0 % in 2014. However, this proportion was significantly lower in non-endemic provinces (79.0 %) than that in endemic provinces (91.4 %) during 2011–2014. The median interval from illness onset to diagnosis was 3 days at the elimination stage, with one day earlier than that at the control stage. Since 2011, more than 99 % cases were reported within 1 day after being diagnosed, while the proportion of cases that were reported within one day after diagnosis was lowest in Tibet (37.5 %). The predominant source of cases reporting shifted from town-level hospitals at the control stage (67.9 % cases) to city-level hospitals and public health institutes at the eliminate stage (69.4 % cases). The proportion of investigation within 3 days after case reporting has improved, from 74.6 % in 2010 to 98.5 % in 2014.

Conclusions

The individual case-based malaria surveillance system in China operated well during the malaria elimination stage. This ensured that malaria cases could be diagnosed, reported and timely investigated at local level. However, domestic migrants and overseas populations, as well as cases in the historically malarial non-endemic areas and hard-to-reach area are new challenges in the surveillance for malaria elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-016-0163-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Complexities and Perplexities: A Critical Appraisal of the Evidence for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection-Related Morbidity

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) have acute and chronic manifestations, and can result in lifetime morbidity. Disease burden is difficult to quantify, yet quantitative evidence is required to justify large-scale deworming programmes. A recent Cochrane systematic review, which influences Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for STH, has again called into question the evidence for deworming benefit on morbidity due to STH. In this narrative review, we investigate in detail what the shortfalls in evidence are.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We systematically reviewed recent literature that used direct measures to investigate morbidity from STH and we critically appraised systematic reviews, particularly the most recent Cochrane systematic review investigating deworming impact on morbidity. We included six systematic reviews and meta-analyses, 36 literature reviews, 44 experimental or observational studies, and five case series. We highlight where evidence is insufficient and where research needs to be directed to strengthen morbidity evidence, ideally to prove benefits of deworming.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Overall, the Cochrane systematic review and recent studies indicate major shortfalls in evidence for direct morbidity. However, it is questionable whether the systematic review methodology should be applied to STH due to heterogeneity of the prevalence of different species in each setting. Urgent investment in studies powered to detect direct morbidity effects due to STH is required.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model

BACKGROUND

A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7-December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia.

METHOD

We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space-time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors.

RESULTS

The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: -0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): -0.370--0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: -0.003; 95% CI: -0.004--0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007-0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Development and evaluation of a spatial decision support system for malaria elimination in Bhutan

Background

Bhutan has reduced its malaria incidence significantly in the last 5 years, and is aiming for malaria elimination by 2016. To assist with the management of the Bhutanese malaria elimination programme a spatial decision support system (SDSS) was developed. The current study aims to describe SDSS development and evaluate SDSS utility and acceptability through informant interviews.

Methods

The SDSS was developed based on the open-source Quantum geographical information system (QGIS) and piloted to support the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar District. It was subsequently used to support reactive case detection (RACD) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar and two additional sub-districts in Sarpang District. Interviews were conducted to ascertain perceptions on utility and acceptability of 11 informants using the SDSS, including programme and district managers, and field workers.

Results

A total of 1502 households with a population of 7165 were enumerated in the four sub-districts, and a total of 3491 LLINs were distributed with one LLIN per 1.7 persons. A total of 279 households representing 728 residents were involved with RACD. Informants considered that the SDSS was an improvement on previous methods for organizing LLIN distribution, IRS and RACD, and could be easily integrated into routine malaria and other vector-borne disease surveillance systems. Informants identified some challenges at the programme and field level, including the need for more skilled personnel to manage the SDSS, and more training to improve the effectiveness of SDSS implementation and use of hardware.

Conclusions

The SDSS was well accepted and informants expected its use to be extended to other malaria reporting districts and other vector-borne diseases. Challenges associated with efficient SDSS use included adequate skills and knowledge, access to training and support, and availability of hardware including computers and global positioning system receivers.

Associations between prior management of cattle and risk of bovine respiratory disease in feedlot cattle

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the major cause of clinical disease and death in feedlot populations worldwide. A longitudinal study was conducted to assess associations between risk factors related to on-farm management prior to transport to the feedlot and risk of BRD in a population of feedlot beef cattle sourced from throughout the cattle producing regions of Australia. Exposure variables were derived from questionnaire data provided by farmers supplying cattle (N=10,721) that were a subset of the population included in a nationwide prospective study investigating numerous putative risk factors for BRD. Causal diagrams were used to inform model building to allow estimation of effects of interest. Multilevel mixed effects logistic regression models were fitted within the Bayesian framework. Animals that were yard weaned were at reduced risk (OR: 0.7, 95% credible interval: 0.5-1.0) of BRD at the feedlot compared to animals immediately returned to pasture after weaning. Animals that had previously been fed grain (OR: 0.6, 95% credible interval: 0.3-1.1) were probably at reduced risk of BRD at the feedlot compared to animals not previously fed grain. Animals that received prior vaccinations against Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 1 (OR: 0.8, 95% credible interval: 0.5-1.1) or Mannheimia haemolytica (OR: 0.8, 95% credible interval: 0.6-1.0) were also probably at reduced risk compared to non-vaccinated animals. The results of this study confirm that on-farm management before feedlot entry can alter risk of BRD after beef cattle enter feedlots.

Epidemiologic features of overseas imported malaria in the People's Republic of China

Background

With the dramatic increase in international travel among Chinese people, the risk of malaria importation from malaria-endemic regions threatens the achievement of the malaria elimination goal of China.

Methods

Epidemiological investigations of all imported malaria cases were conducted in nine provinces of China from 1 Nov, 2013 to 30 Oct, 2014. Plasmodium species, spatiotemporal distribution, clinical severity, preventive measures and infection history of the imported malaria cases were analysed using descriptive statistics.

Results

A total of 1420 imported malaria cases were recorded during the study period, with P. falciparum (723 cases, 50.9 %) and P. vivax (629 cases, 44.3 %) being the two predominant species. Among them, 81.8 % of cases were in Chinese overseas labourers. The imported cases returned from 41 countries, mainly located in Africa (58.9 %) and Southeast Asia (39.4 %). About a quarter (25.5 %, 279/1094) of counties in the nine study provinces were affected by imported malaria cases. There were 112 cases (7.9 %) developing complicated malaria, including 12 deaths (case fatality rate: 0.8 %). Only 27.8 % of the imported cases had taken prophylactic anti-malarial drugs. While staying abroad, 27.7 % of the cases had experienced two or more episodes of malaria infection. The awareness of clinical manifestations and the capacity for malaria diagnosis were weak in private clinics and primary healthcare facilities.

Conclusions

Imported malaria infections among Chinese labourers, returned from various countries, poses an increasing challenge to the malaria elimination programme in China. The risk of potential re-introduction of malaria into inland malaria-free areas of China should be urgently addressed.

Co-distribution and co-infection of chikungunya and dengue viruses

Background

Chikungunya and dengue infections are spatio-temporally related. The current review aims to determine the geographic limits of chikungunya, dengue and the principal mosquito vectors for both viruses and to synthesise current epidemiological understanding of their co-distribution.

Methods

Three biomedical databases (PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science) were searched from their inception until May 2015 for studies that reported concurrent detection of chikungunya and dengue viruses in the same patient. Additionally, data from WHO, CDC and Healthmap alerts were extracted to create up-to-date global distribution maps for both dengue and chikungunya.

Results

Evidence for chikungunya-dengue co-infection has been found in Angola, Gabon, India, Madagascar, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Saint Martin, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand and Yemen; these constitute only 13 out of the 98 countries/territories where both chikungunya and dengue epidemic/endemic transmission have been reported.

Conclusions

Understanding the true extent of chikungunya-dengue co-infection is hampered by current diagnosis largely based on their similar symptoms. Heightened awareness of chikungunya among the public and public health practitioners in the advent of the ongoing outbreak in the Americas can be expected to improve diagnostic rigour. Maps generated from the newly compiled lists of the geographic distribution of both pathogens and vectors represent the current geographical limits of chikungunya and dengue, as well as the countries/territories at risk of future incursion by both viruses. These describe regions of co-endemicity in which lab-based diagnosis of suspected cases is of higher priority.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1417-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The landscape epidemiology of echinococcoses

Echinococcoses are parasitic diseases of major public health importance globally. Human infection results in chronic disease with poor prognosis and serious medical, social and economic consequences for vulnerable populations. According to recent estimates, the geographical distribution of Echinococcus spp. infections is expanding and becoming an emerging and re-emerging problem in several regions of the world. Echinococcosis endemicity is geographically heterogeneous and over time it may be affected by global environmental change. Therefore, landscape epidemiology offers a unique opportunity to quantify and predict the ecological risk of infection at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we review the most relevant environmental sources of spatial variation in human echinococcosis risk, and describe the potential applications of landscape epidemiological studies to characterise the current patterns of parasite transmission across natural and human-altered landscapes. We advocate future work promoting the use of this approach as a support tool for decision-making that facilitates the design, implementation and monitoring of spatially targeted interventions to reduce the burden of human echinococcoses in disease-endemic areas.

Application of a Multiplex Quantitative PCR to Assess Prevalence and Intensity Of Intestinal Parasite Infections in a Controlled Clinical Trial

Background

Accurate quantitative assessment of infection with soil transmitted helminths and protozoa is key to the interpretation of epidemiologic studies of these parasites, as well as for monitoring large scale treatment efficacy and effectiveness studies. As morbidity and transmission of helminth infections are directly related to both the prevalence and intensity of infection, there is particular need for improved techniques for assessment of infection intensity for both purposes. The current study aimed to evaluate two multiplex PCR assays to determine prevalence and intensity of intestinal parasite infections, and compare them to standard microscopy.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Faecal samples were collected from a total of 680 people, originating from rural communities in Timor-Leste (467 samples) and Cambodia (213 samples). DNA was extracted from stool samples and subject to two multiplex real-time PCR reactions the first targeting: Necator americanus, Ancylostoma spp., Ascaris spp., and Trichuris trichiura; and the second Entamoeba histolytica, Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia. duodenalis, and Strongyloides stercoralis. Samples were also subject to sodium nitrate flotation for identification and quantification of STH eggs, and zinc sulphate centrifugal flotation for detection of protozoan parasites. Higher parasite prevalence was detected by multiplex PCR (hookworms 2.9 times higher, Ascaris 1.2, Giardia 1.6, along with superior polyparasitism detection with this effect magnified as the number of parasites present increased (one: 40.2% vs. 38.1%, two: 30.9% vs. 12.9%, three: 7.6% vs. 0.4%, four: 0.4% vs. 0%). Although, all STH positive samples were low intensity infections by microscopy as defined by WHO guidelines the DNA-load detected by multiplex PCR suggested higher intensity infections.

Conclusions/Significance

Multiplex PCR, in addition to superior sensitivity, enabled more accurate determination of infection intensity for Ascaris, hookworms and Giardia compared to microscopy, especially in samples exhibiting polyparasitism. The superior performance of multiplex PCR to detect polyparasitism and more accurately determine infection intensity suggests that it is a more appropriate technique for use in epidemiologic studies and for monitoring large-scale intervention trials.

Gastrointestinal parasites including soil-transmitted helminths cause considerable morbidity worldwide, especially in resource-poor communities. Large-scale epidemiologic and treatment efficacy studies are regularly undertaken to determine the optimum ways to reduce or eliminate parasites from endemic communities, thereby reducing the burden of disease. Accurate and sensitive tests for detection of soil transmitted helminths and protozoa are of great importance to the success of such trials. Increasingly recognised is the importance of accurately determine the infection intensity, as morbidity and transmission pressure of helminth infections are directly related this and not just to prevalence. A vast majority of studies use standard microscopy methods which, although well accepted, may not be as accurate as more recently developed molecular techniques such as multiplex PCR. Therefore, there is need for further evaluation of multiplex PCR techniques and their ability to detect infections and provide infection intensity data. In the current study real-time PCR showed a higher sensitivity for the detection of intestinal helminths and protozoa especially in cases of mixed infections as well as more accurate determination of infection intensity compared to microscopy.

Malaria imported from Ghana by returning gold miners, China, 2013

During May-August 2013, a malaria outbreak comprising 874 persons in Shanglin County, China, was detected among 4,052 persons returning from overseas. Ghana was the predominant destination country, and 92.3% of malarial infections occurred in gold miners. Preventive measures should be enhanced for persons in high-risk occupations traveling to malaria-endemic countries.

A Critical Appraisal of Control Strategies for Soil-Transmitted Helminths

Interventions that lead to reductions in soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) include chemotherapy with anthelmintic drugs and improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). In this opinion article we aim to determine the evidence for optimal approaches for STH control. First we explore the evidence for the above interventions. We then appraise two integration strategies: current chemotherapy-oriented integrated neglected tropical disease (NTD) control and expanded 'multicomponent integration', which includes integrated chemotherapy, WASH, and other intervention strategies. While multicomponent integrated control may be an effective approach to sustainably reduce STH transmission, there is a need for evidence to prove the feasibility of this approach.

Malaria imported from Ghana by returning gold miners, China, 2013

During May-August 2013, a malaria outbreak comprising 874 persons in Shanglin County, China, was detected among 4,052 persons returning from overseas. Ghana was the predominant destination country, and 92.3% of malarial infections occurred in gold miners. Preventive measures should be enhanced for persons in high-risk occupations traveling to malaria-endemic countries.

25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations and Clostridium difficile Infection: A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Well-known risk factors for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) are exposure to antibiotics and gastric acid suppressants. Recent studies have provided some evidence of an association between hypovitaminosis D and the risk of CDI. Therefore, this meta-analysis aimed to pool all the existing evidence to investigate the association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) and CDI.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in 3 databases (PubMed, Embase, and Web of Sciences) for epidemiological studies that examined the association between mean 25(OH)D concentrations and CDI as well as between 25(OH)D status and CDI severity or recurrence. 25(OH)D status was defined as "lower" or "higher" at a threshold concentration of <20 or ≥20 ng/mL, respectively. Pooled effect sizes were computed using the inverse variance heterogeneity model of meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Eight publications (n = 4479 patients) were included in the meta-analysis. The mean concentration of 25(OH)D in patients with CDI was 3.54 ng/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39-6.89 ng/mL) lower than in patients without CDI. Patients with lower 25(OH)D status had a higher odds (odds ratio [OR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.02-2.53) of developing severe CDI compared with those with a higher 25(OH)D status. No significant association was found between 25(OH)D status and CDI recurrence.

CONCLUSION

The results of this meta-analysis suggest that lower mean concentrations of 25(OH)D were associated with CDI. A lower 25(OH)D status increased the odds of severe CDI but not of CDI recurrence.

Earth Observation, Spatial Data Quality, and Neglected Tropical Diseases

Earth observation (EO) is the use of remote sensing and in situ observations to gather data on the environment. It finds increasing application in the study of environmentally modulated neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Obtaining and assuring the quality of the relevant spatially and temporally indexed EO data remain challenges. Our objective was to review the Earth observation products currently used in studies of NTD epidemiology and to discuss fundamental issues relating to spatial data quality (SDQ), which limit the utilization of EO and pose challenges for its more effective use. We searched Web of Science and PubMed for studies related to EO and echinococossis, leptospirosis, schistosomiasis, and soil-transmitted helminth infections. Relevant literature was also identified from the bibliographies of those papers. We found that extensive use is made of EO products in the study of NTD epidemiology; however, the quality of these products is usually given little explicit attention. We review key issues in SDQ concerning spatial and temporal scale, uncertainty, and the documentation and use of quality information. We give examples of how these issues may interact with uncertainty in NTD data to affect the output of an epidemiological analysis. We conclude that researchers should give careful attention to SDQ when designing NTD spatial-epidemiological studies. This should be used to inform uncertainty analysis in the epidemiological study. SDQ should be documented and made available to other researchers.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes

Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000–December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns.

Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization: epidemiology and clinical implications

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) has changed over the past decades with the emergence of highly virulent strains. The role of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization as part of the clinical spectrum of CDI is complex because many risk factors are common to both disease and asymptomatic states. In this article, we review the role of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization in the progression to symptomatic CDI, describe the epidemiology of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization, assess the effectiveness of screening and intensive infection control practices for patients at risk of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization, and discuss the implications for clinical practice.

METHODS

A narrative review was performed in PubMed for articles published from January 1980 to February 2015 using search terms 'Clostridium difficile' and 'colonization' or 'colonisation' or 'carriage'.

RESULTS

There is no clear definition for asymptomatic CDI and the terms carriage and colonization are often used interchangeably. The prevalence of asymptomatic C. difficile colonization varies depending on a number of host, pathogen, and environmental factors; current estimates of asymptomatic colonization may be underestimated as stool culture is not practical in a clinical setting.

CONCLUSIONS

Asymptomatic C. difficile colonization presents challenging concepts in the overall picture of this disease and its management. Individuals who are colonized by the organism may acquire protection from progression to disease, however they also have the potential to contribute to transmission in healthcare settings.

Mapping the Risk of Soil-Transmitted Helminthic Infections in the Philippines

Background

In order to increase the efficient allocation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) disease control resources in the Philippines, we aimed to describe for the first time the spatial variation in the prevalence of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm across the country, quantify the association between the physical environment and spatial variation of STH infection and develop predictive risk maps for each infection.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data on STH infection from 35,573 individuals across the country were geolocated at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was stratified geographically in two major regions: 1) Luzon and the Visayas and 2) Mindanao. Bayesian geostatistical models of STH prevalence were developed, including age and sex of individuals and environmental variables (rainfall, land surface temperature and distance to inland water bodies) as predictors, and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. The role of environmental variables was different between regions of the Philippines. This analysis revealed that while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were widespread and highly endemic, hookworm infections were more circumscribed to smaller foci in the Visayas and Mindanao.

Conclusions/Significance

This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in STH infection prevalence within provinces of the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to STH interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional STH surveys should be prioritized to high-risk areas identified by our study in Luzon.

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections with A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworms are endemic in all 80 provinces of the Philippines, but the spatial variation in the prevalence of these infections has not been previously described. This analysis revealed that while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were widespread and highly endemic, hookworm infections were more circumscribed to smaller foci in the Visayas and Mindanao. The results also suggest that it may be necessary to place greater emphasis on improving the provision of water, sanitation and the promotion of behavioral change for improved hygiene for the control and prevention of STH infections, particularly for hookworm.

Mechanisms of hypervirulent Clostridium difficile ribotype 027 displacement of endemic strains: an epidemiological model

Following rapid, global clonal dominance of hypervirulent ribotypes, Clostridium difficile now constitutes the primary infectious cause of nosocomial diarrhoea. Evidence indicates at least three possible mechanisms of hypervirulence that facilitates the successful invasion of these atypical strains: 1) increased infectiousness relative to endemic strains; 2) increased symptomatic disease rate relative to endemic strains; and 3) an ability to outcompete endemic strains in the host’s gut. Stochastic simulations of an infection transmission model demonstrate clear differences between the invasion potentials of C. difficile strains utilising the alternative hypervirulence mechanisms, and provide new evidence that favours certain mechanisms (1 and 2) more than others (3). Additionally, simulations illustrate that direct competition between strains (inside the host’s gut) is not a prerequisite for the sudden switching that has been observed in prevailing ribotypes; previously dominant C. difficile strains can be excluded by hypervirulent ribotypes through indirect (exploitative) competition.

Cross-border malaria: a major obstacle for malaria elimination

Movement of malaria across international borders poses a major obstacle to achieving malaria elimination in the 34 countries that have committed to this goal. In border areas, malaria prevalence is often higher than in other areas due to lower access to health services, treatment-seeking behaviour of marginalized populations that typically inhabit border areas, difficulties in deploying prevention programmes to hard-to-reach communities, often in difficult terrain, and constant movement of people across porous national boundaries. Malaria elimination in border areas will be challenging and key to addressing the challenges is strengthening of surveillance activities for rapid identification of any importation or reintroduction of malaria. This could involve taking advantage of technological advances, such as spatial decision support systems, which can be deployed to assist programme managers to carry out preventive and reactive measures, and mobile phone technology, which can be used to capture the movement of people in the border areas and likely sources of malaria importation. Additionally, joint collaboration in the prevention and control of cross-border malaria by neighbouring countries, and reinforcement of early diagnosis and prompt treatment are ways forward in addressing the problem of cross-border malaria.

Using internet search queries for infectious disease surveillance: screening diseases for suitability

BACKGROUND

Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases.

METHODS

Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009-13 using Spearman's rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems.

RESULTS

Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases.

The role of environmental factors in the spatial distribution of Japanese encephalitis in mainland China

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km×1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82-0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44-7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%-38.37%, 15.47%-21.82%, 3.86%-21.22%, and 12.05%-16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures.

Methods

Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences.

Results

A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties.

Conclusions

This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne viral disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem and accounts for 90% of the reported cases in the world. We examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China during 2005–2012 and compared characteristics between cases from high-risk and low-risk counties. Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. These findings suggest preventative strategies for HFRS should be focused on the identified clusters in order to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria and bed net ownership and use in Bhutan, 2013: a country earmarked for malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

With dwindling malaria cases in Bhutan in recent years, the government of Bhutan has made plans for malaria elimination by 2016. This study aimed to determine coverage, use and ownership of LLINs, as well as the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at a single time-point, in four sub-districts of Bhutan.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was carried out in August 2013. Structured questionnaires were administered to a single respondent in each household (HH) in four sub-districts. Four members from 25 HH, randomly selected from each sub-district, were tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with LLIN use and maintenance.

RESULTS

All blood samples from 380 participants tested negative for Plasmodium infections. A total of 1,223 HH (92.5% of total HH) were surveyed for LLIN coverage and use. Coverage of LLINs was 99.0% (1,203/1,223 HH). Factors associated with decreased odds of sleeping under a LLIN included: washing LLINs <six months and >nine months compared to washing LLINs every six months; HH in the least poor compared to the most poor socio-economic quintile; a HH income of Nu 5,001-10,000 (US$1 = Nu 59.55), and Nu >10,000, compared to HH with income of <Nu 1,500; HH located one to three hours walking distance to a health centre compared to being located closer to a health centre; a reported lack of knowledge as to what to do in event of LLINs being torn; and keeping LLINs in a box compared to keeping them hanging in the place of use. Factors associated with use of LLINs for purposes other than the intended use included: income group Nu 1,501-3,000 and HH located one to three hours walking distance from a health centre.

CONCLUSIONS

There was high coverage of LLINs in the study area with regular use of LLINs throughout the year. LLIN use for purposes other than malaria prevention was low. With high coverage and regular use of LLINs, and a zero prevalence of malaria infection found in historically high-risk communities during the peak malaria season, it appears Bhutan is on course to achieve malaria elimination.

Evaluation of the performance of a dengue outbreak detection tool for China

An outbreak detection and response system, using time series moving percentile method based on historical data, in China has been used for identifying dengue fever outbreaks since 2008. For dengue fever outbreaks reported from 2009 to 2012, this system achieved a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 99.8% and a median time to detection of 3 days, which indicated that the system was a useful decision tool for dengue fever control and risk-management programs in China.

Cost analysis of the development and implementation of a spatial decision support system for malaria elimination in Solomon Islands

BACKGROUND

The goal of malaria elimination faces numerous challenges. New tools are required to support the scale up of interventions and improve national malaria programme capacity to conduct detailed surveillance. This study investigates the cost factors influencing the development and implementation of a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for malaria elimination in the two elimination provinces of Isabel and Temotu, Solomon Islands.

METHOD

Financial and economic costs to develop and implement a SDSS were estimated using the Solomon Islands programme's financial records. Using an ingredients approach, verified by stakeholders and operational reports, total costs for each province were quantified. A budget impact sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of variations in standard budgetary components on the costs and to identify potential cost savings.

RESULTS

A total investment of US$ 96,046 (2012 constant dollars) was required to develop and implement the SDSS in two provinces (Temotu Province US$ 49,806 and Isabel Province US$ 46,240). The single largest expense category was for computerized equipment totalling approximately US$ 30,085. Geographical reconnaissance was the most expensive phase of development and implementation, accounting for approximately 62% of total costs. Sensitivity analysis identified different cost factors between the provinces. Reduced equipment costs would deliver a budget saving of approximately 10% in Isabel Province. Combined travel costs represented the greatest influence on the total budget in the more remote Temotu Province.

CONCLUSION

This study provides the first cost analysis of an operational surveillance tool used specifically for malaria elimination in the South-West Pacific. It is demonstrated that the costs of such a decision support system are driven by specialized equipment and travel expenses. Such factors should be closely scrutinized in future programme budgets to ensure maximum efficiencies are gained and available resources are allocated effectively.