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Paulson KR, Kamath AM, Alam T, Bienhoff K, Abady GG, Abbas J, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abd-Elsalam SM, Abdoli A, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abushouk AI, Adamu AL, Adebayo OM, Adegbosin AE, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adeyinka DA, Adsuar JC, Afshari K, Aghaali M, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Aji B, Akalu Y, Akinyemi OO, Aklilu A, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali T, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alumran AK, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Ameyaw EK, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aripov T, Ärnlöv J, Artanti KD, Arzani A, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Athari SS, Athari SM, Atnafu DD, Atreya A, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Awan AT, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azarian G, Azene ZN, B DB, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Banach M, Banik PC, Barker-Collo SL, Barqawi HJ, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beghi E, Beghi M, Bell ML, Bendak S, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bezabih YM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Bragazzi NL, Breusov AV, Brunoni AR, Burkart K, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Camargos P, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Cerin E, Chang JC, Chanie WF, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Chen S, Cho DY, Choi JYJ, Chu DT, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Conde J, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dachew BA, Dahlawi SMA, Dai H, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darmstadt GL, Das JK, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis AC, Davletov K, De la Hoz FP, De Leo D, Deeba F, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Desalew A, Deuba K, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhingra S, Dhungana GP, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dorostkar F, Doshmangir L, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Eagan AW, Edinur HA, Efendi F, Eftekharzadeh S, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elgendy IY, El-Jaafary SI, Emami A, Enany S, Eyawo O, Ezzikouri S, Faris PS, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fauk NK, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Ferede TY, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Freitas M, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gaidhane S, Gaihre S, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gaspar Fonseca M, Gebremedhin KB, Getacher L, Ghashghaee A, Gholamian A, Gilani SA, Gill TK, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Godinho MA, Goel A, Golechha M, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Goudarzi H, Grivna M, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guimarães RA, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haider MR, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Hankey GJ, Hargono A, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasan SS, Hassan A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Havmoeller RJ, Hayat K, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Hole MK, Holla R, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Huang J, Humayun A, Hwang BF, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inamdar S, Inbaraj LR, Iqbal K, Iqbal U, Islam MM, Islam SMS, Iso H, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jagnoor J, Jain V, Janodia MD, Javaheri T, Javanmardi F, Jayaram S, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Ji JS, John O, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph N, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kamyari N, Kanchan T, Kapoor N, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karimi SE, Kassahun G, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Kemmer L, Khalid N, Khalilov R, Khammarnia M, Khan EA, Khan G, Khan M, Khan MN, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khater AM, Khater MM, Khayamzadeh M, Khosravi A, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kissoon N, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy V, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kulkarni V, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lalloo R, Lami FH, Landires I, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Lauriola P, Lee PH, Lee SWH, Lee YH, Leigh J, Leonardi M, Lewycka S, Li B, Li S, Liang J, Lim LL, Limenih MA, Lin RT, Liu X, Lodha R, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Mackay MT, Madhava Kunjathur S, Magnani FG, Mahadeshwara Prasad DR, Maheri M, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Maled V, Maleki A, Maleki S, Malekzadeh R, Malik AA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martinez G, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Maulik PK, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, Medina-Solís CE, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mini GK, Miri M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Moazen B, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohajer B, Mohamad O, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi SM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moore CE, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Mosser JF, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mustafa G, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nagaraju SP, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Nascimento BR, Naveed M, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nena E, Nepal S, Netsere HB, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CTY, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nigatu YT, Nigussie SN, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Noor NM, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nwatah VE, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Ogbo FA, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omar Bali A, Onwujekwe OE, Ortiz A, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pakshir K, Pal PK, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Pardo-Montaño AM, Park EK, Patel SK, Patton GC, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira J, Pérez-Gómez J, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Pilgrim T, Pinheiro M, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Platts-Mills JA, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Prada SI, Prakash S, Pupillo E, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiee A, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Rahimzadeh S, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ramezanzadeh K, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rastogi P, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawasia WF, Rawassizadeh R, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Ribeiro D, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Ryan PM, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Salahshoor MR, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sarker AR, Sarrafzadegan N, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saxena S, Saya GK, Saylan M, Schiavolin S, Schlaich MP, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shahabi S, Shahbaz M, Shaheen AA, Shahid I, Shaikh MA, Shakiba S, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shuval K, Siddiqi TJ, Sidemo NB, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Silverberg JIS, Simonetti B, Singh BB, Singh JA, Singhal D, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Sobaih BH, Sobhiyeh MR, Soltani S, Soriano JB, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Steiropoulos P, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Swope CB, Sykes BL, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadesse EG, Taherkhani A, Tamiru AT, Tareque MI, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Tolani MA, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tripathy JP, Tsapparellas G, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Uddin R, Ullah A, Umeokonkwo CD, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Usman MS, Vacante M, Vaezi M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valdez PR, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Verma M, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vu GT, Wado YD, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilner LB, Wiysonge CS, Wu AM, Wu C, Xie Y, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yandrapalli S, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yu C, Yusuf SS, Zaidi SS, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao XJG, Ziapour A, Hay SI, Murray CJL, Wang H, Kassebaum NJ. Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2021; 398:870-905. [PMID: 34416195 PMCID: PMC8429803 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01207-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 187] [Impact Index Per Article: 62.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2021] [Revised: 05/25/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. METHODS We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. FINDINGS Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. INTERPRETATION Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Nichols E, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Afshin A, Akinyemi RO, Alanezi FM, Alipour V, Almasi-Hashiani A, Arabloo J, Ashraf-Ganjouei A, Ayano G, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Baig AA, Banach M, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Baune BT, Bhagavathula AS, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Biswas A, Boloor A, Brayne C, Brenner H, Burkart K, Burugina Nagaraja S, Carvalho F, Castro-de-Araujo LFS, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Cherbuin N, Chu DT, Dai X, de Sá-Junior AR, Djalalinia S, Douiri A, Edvardsson D, El-Jaafary SI, Eskandarieh S, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Filip I, Fischer F, Gaidhane S, Galluzzo L, Gebremeskel GG, Ghashghaee A, Gialluisi A, Gnedovskaya EV, Golechha M, Gupta R, Hachinski V, Haider MR, Haile TG, Hamiduzzaman M, Hankey GJ, Hay SI, Heidari G, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Ho HC, Househ M, Hwang BF, Iacoviello L, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irvani SSN, Iwagami M, Iyamu IO, Jha RP, Kalani R, Karch A, Kasa AS, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khatib MN, Kim YJ, Kisa S, Kisa A, Kivimäki M, Koyanagi A, Kumar M, Landires I, Lasrado S, Li B, Lim SS, Liu X, Madhava Kunjathur S, Majeed A, Malik P, Mehndiratta MM, Menezes RG, Mohammad Y, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Nagel G, Naveed M, Nayak VC, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nunez-Samudio V, Olagunju AT, Ostroff SM, Otstavnov N, Owolabi MO, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patel UK, Phillips MR, Piradov MA, Pond CD, Pottoo FH, Prada SI, Radfar A, Rahim F, Rana J, Rashedi V, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Reinig N, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Romoli M, Roshandel G, Sachdev PS, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Samaei M, Saylan M, Sha F, Shaikh MA, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Silva DAS, Singh JA, Singhal D, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soheili A, Sotoudeh H, Spurlock EE, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Taddele BW, Tovani-Palone MR, Tsegaye GW, Vacante M, Venketasubramanian N, Vidale S, Vlassov V, Vu GT, Wang YP, Weiss J, Weldemariam AH, Westerman R, Wimo A, Winkler AS, Wu C, Yadollahpour A, Yesiltepe M, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang ZJ, Murray CJL, Vos T. Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 2021; 21:241. [PMID: 34380485 PMCID: PMC8356410 DOI: 10.1186/s12911-021-01590-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 07/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally. METHODS Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex. RESULTS Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older. CONCLUSIONS Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys.
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Singh G, Sharma M, Kumar GA, Rao NG, Prasad K, Mathur P, Pandian JD, Steinmetz JD, Biswas A, Pal PK, Prakash S, Sylaja PN, Nichols E, Dua T, Kaur H, Alladi S, Agarwal V, Aggarwal S, Ambekar A, Bagepally BS, Banerjee TK, Bender RG, Bhagwat S, Bhargava S, Bhatia R, Chakma JK, Chowdhary N, Dey S, Dirac MA, Feigin VL, Ganguli A, Golechha MJ, Gourie-Devi M, Goyal V, Gupta G, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gururaj G, Hemalatha R, Jeemon P, Johnson CO, Joshi P, Kant R, Kataki AC, Khurana D, Krishnankutty RP, Kyu HH, Lim SS, Lodha R, Ma R, Malhotra R, Malhotra R, Mathai M, Mehrotra R, Misra UK, Mutreja P, Naghavi M, Naik N, Nguyen M, Pandey A, Parmar P, Perianayagam A, Prabhakaran D, Rath GK, Reinig N, Roth GA, Sagar R, Sankar MJ, Shaji KS, Sharma RS, Sharma S, Singh R, Srivastava MVP, Stark BA, Tandon N, Thakur JS, ThekkePurakkal AS, Thomas SV, Tripathi M, Vongpradith A, Wunrow HY, Xavier D, Shukla DK, Reddy KS, Panda S, Dandona R, Murray CJL, Vos T, Dhaliwal RS, Dandona L. The burden of neurological disorders across the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019. Lancet Glob Health 2021; 9:e1129-e1144. [PMID: 34273302 PMCID: PMC8295043 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00164-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2020] [Revised: 02/18/2021] [Accepted: 03/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A systematic understanding of the burden of neurological disorders at the subnational level is not readily available for India. We present a comprehensive analysis of the disease burden and trends of neurological disorders at the state level in India. METHODS Using all accessible data from multiple sources, we estimated the prevalence or incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for neurological disorders from 1990 to 2019 for all states of India as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. We assessed the contribution of each neurological disorder to deaths and DALYs in India in 2019, their trends in prevalence or incidence and DALY rates over time, and heterogeneity between the states of India. We also assessed the Pearson correlation coefficient between Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of the states and the prevalence or incidence and DALY rates of each neurological disorder. Additionally, we estimated the contribution of known risk factors to DALYs from neurological disorders. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the mean estimates. FINDINGS The contribution of non-communicable neurological disorders to total DALYs in India doubled from 4·0% (95% UI 3·2-5·0) in 1990 to 8·2% (6·6-10·2) in 2019, and the contribution of injury-related neurological disorders increased from 0·2% (0·2-0·3) to 0·6% (0·5-0·7). Conversely, the contribution of communicable neurological disorders decreased from 4·1% (3·5-4·8) to 1·1% (0·9-1·5) during the same period. In 2019, the largest contributors to the total neurological disorder DALYs in India were stroke (37·9% [29·9-46·1]), headache disorders (17·5% [3·6-32·5]), epilepsy (11·3% [9·0-14·3]), cerebral palsy (5·7% [4·2-7·7]), and encephalitis (5·3% [3·7-8·9]). The crude DALY rate of several neurological disorders had considerable heterogeneity between the states in 2019, with the highest variation for tetanus (93·2 times), meningitis (8·3 times), and stroke (5·5 times). SDI of the states had a moderate significant negative correlation with communicable neurological disorder DALY rate and a moderate significant positive correlation with injury-related neurological disorder DALY rate in 2019. For most of the non-communicable neurological disorders, there was an increase in prevalence or incidence from 1990 to 2019. Substantial decreases were evident in the incidence and DALY rates of communicable neurological disorders during the same period. Migraine and multiple sclerosis were more prevalent among females than males and traumatic brain injuries were more common among males than females in 2019. Communicable diseases contributed to the majority of total neurological disorder DALYs in children younger than 5 years, and non-communicable neurological disorders were the highest contributor in all other age groups. In 2019, the leading risk factors contributing to DALYs due to non-communicable neurological disorders in India included high systolic blood pressure, air pollution, dietary risks, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. For communicable disorders, the identified risk factors with modest contributions to DALYs were low birthweight and short gestation and air pollution. INTERPRETATION The increasing contribution of non-communicable and injury-related neurological disorders to the overall disease burden in India, and the substantial state-level variation in the burden of many neurological disorders highlight the need for state-specific health system responses to address the gaps in neurology services related to awareness, early identification, treatment, and rehabilitation. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.
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Jones KM, Starkey N, Barker-Collo S, Ameratunga S, Theadom A, Pocock K, Borotkanics R, Feigin VL. Parent and Teacher-Reported Child Outcomes Seven Years After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A Nested Case Control Study. Front Neurol 2021; 12:683661. [PMID: 34367050 PMCID: PMC8342814 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2021.683661] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2021] [Accepted: 06/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Increasing evidence suggests potential lifetime effects following mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) in childhood. Few studies have examined medium-term outcomes among hospitalized and non-hospitalized samples. Study aims were to describe children's behavioral and emotional adjustment, executive function (EF), quality of life, and participation at 7-years following mild TBI using parents' and teachers' reports. Methods: Nested case control study of 86 children (68% male, mean age at assessment = 11.27 years; range 7–17 years) who sustained a mild TBI 7-years previously, identified from a prospective, population-based study. They were compared to 69 children free from TBI (61% male, mean age at assessment = 11.12 years; range 5–17 years). In addition to parent-reported socio-demographic details, parents (mild TBI n = 86, non-TBI n = 69) completed age-appropriate standardized questionnaires about children's health-related quality of life, behavioral and emotional adjustment, EF, and social participation. Parents own mood was assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Teachers (mild TBI n = 53, non-TBI n = 42) completed questionnaires about children's behavioral and emotional adjustment, and EF. Results: Parent reports showed median group-level scores for cases were statistically significantly greater than controls for emotional symptoms, conduct problems, hyperactivity/inattention, total behavioral difficulties, inhibitory control, shifting, planning/organizing, and Global Executive Composite (total) EF difficulties (p-values 0.001–0.029). Parent reports of child quality of life and social participation were similar, as were teacher reports of child behavioral and emotional adjustment, and EF (p > 0.05). When examining clinical cut-offs, compared to controls, cases had a higher risk of parent-reported total EF difficulties (odds ratio = 3.00) and, to a lesser extent, total behavior problems (odds ratio = 2.51). Conclusions: As a group, children with a history of mild TBI may be at elevated risk for clinically significant everyday EF difficulties in the medium-term compared to non-TBI controls, as judged by their parents. Further multi-informant longitudinal research is required, following larger samples. Aspects requiring particular attention include pre-injury characteristics, such as sleep disturbances and comorbidities (e.g., headaches), that may act as potential confounders influencing the association between mild TBI and child behavioral problems.
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Kendrick PJ, Reitsma MB, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abedi A, Abhilash ES, Aboyans V, Adebayo OM, Advani SM, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi K, Ahmed H, Aji B, Akalu Y, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alhabib KF, Ali T, Alif SM, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alomari MA, Amin TT, Amini S, Amu H, Ancuceanu R, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony B, Anvari D, Arabloo J, Arian ND, Arora M, Artanti KD, Asmare WN, Atnafu DD, Ausloos M, Awan AT, Ayano G, Aynalem GL, Azari S, B DB, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barqawi HJ, Basu S, Bayati M, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bekuma TT, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Benziger CP, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Biondi A, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Brunoni AR, Burkart K, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Car J, Carreras G, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Cattaruzza MSS, Chang JC, Chaturvedi P, Chen S, Chido-Amajuoyi OG, Chu DT, Chung SC, Ciobanu LG, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dagnew B, Dai X, Damasceno AAM, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darega Gela J, Derbew Molla M, Desta AA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Eagan AW, Ebrahimi Kalan M, Edvardsson K, Effiong A, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Esmaeilnejad S, Fadhil I, Faraon EJA, Farwati M, Farzadfar F, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Feldman R, Filip I, Filippidis F, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Gad MM, Gallus S, Geberemariyam BS, Gebregiorgis BG, Getacher L, Getachew Obsa A, Ghafourifard M, Ghanei Gheshlagh R, Ghashghaee A, Ghith N, Gil GF, Gill PS, Ginawi IA, Goharinezhad S, Golechha M, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Grivna M, Guha A, Guimarães RA, Guo Y, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haider MR, Hamadeh RR, Hankey GJ, Hargono A, Hay SI, Heidari G, Herteliu C, Hezam K, Hird TR, Holla R, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsiao T, Huang J, Ibeneme CU, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Irvani SSN, Islam JY, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Islami F, Iso H, Itumalla R, Jaafari J, Jain V, Jakovljevic M, Jang SI, Jayaram S, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kapoor N, Karch A, Karimi SE, Kebede KM, Kelkay B, Kennedy RD, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khayamzadeh M, Kim GR, Kimokoti RW, Kivimäki M, Kosen S, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Lacey B, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lee DW, Lee YH, Leung J, Li S, Lin H, Liu W, Lugo A, Madhava Kunjathur S, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manjunatha N, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martini S, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Mazidi M, McKee M, Medina-Solís CE, Mehata S, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Miazgowski B, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Misra S, Mohammad Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moradzadeh R, Morrison SD, Mossie TB, Mubarik S, Mullany EC, Murray CJL, Nagaraju SP, Naghavi M, Naik N, Nalini M, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Naveed M, Nazari J, Nduaguba SO, Negoi RI, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen HLT, Nigatu YT, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Nuñez-Samudio V, Ogbo FA, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pakshir K, Pana A, Panagiotakos D, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Parekh U, Park EC, Park EK, Pashazadeh Kan F, Pathak M, Pawar S, Pestell RG, Pham HQ, Pinheiro M, Pokhrel KN, Pourshams A, Prashant A, Radfar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Ram P, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Renzaho AMN, Rezapour A, Riaz MA, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roy A, Roy B, Saddik B, Sahebkar A, Salehi S, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Saya GK, Schwendicke F, Seidu AA, Senthil Kumar N, Sepanlou SG, Shafaat O, Shah SM, Shaikh MA, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shivakumar KM, Shivalli S, Shrestha R, Siabani S, Sidemo NB, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soroush A, Soyiri IN, Sreeramareddy CT, Stein DJ, Steiropoulos P, Stortecky S, Straif K, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Sundström J, Tabuchi T, Tadesse EG, Tamiru AT, Tareke M, Tareque MI, Tarigan IU, Thakur B, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Tolani MA, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tripathy JP, Tsegaye GW, Tymeson HD, Ullah S, Unim B, Updike RL, Uthman OA, Vacante M, Vardavas C, Venketasubramanian N, Verma M, Vidale S, Vo B, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Wang Y, Welding K, Werdecker A, Whisnant JL, Wickramasinghe ND, Wubishet BL, Yamagishi K, Yano Y, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeshaw Y, Yimmer MZ, Yonemoto N, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yunusa I, Yusefzadeh H, Zaman MS, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zhang J, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zuniga YMH, Gakidou E. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Public Health 2021; 6:e482-e499. [PMID: 34051920 PMCID: PMC8251505 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00065-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2021] [Revised: 03/12/2021] [Accepted: 03/16/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. METHODS We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. FINDINGS In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. INTERPRETATION Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. FUNDING Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Reitsma MB, Kendrick PJ, Ababneh E, Abbafati C, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdoli A, Abedi A, Abhilash ES, Abila DB, Aboyans V, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adebayo OM, Advani SM, Aghaali M, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmadi K, Ahmed H, Aji B, Akunna CJ, Al-Aly Z, Alanzi TM, Alhabib KF, Ali L, Alif SM, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alvis-Guzman N, Amin TT, Amini S, Amu H, Amul GGH, Ancuceanu R, Anderson JA, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony B, Anvari D, Arabloo J, Arian ND, Arora M, Asaad M, Ausloos M, Awan AT, Ayano G, Aynalem GL, Azari S, B DB, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Bakhshaei MH, Banach M, Banik PC, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barqawi HJ, Basu S, Bayati M, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Behzadifar M, Bekuma TT, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berfield KSS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bintoro BS, Biondi A, Birara S, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Brunoni AR, Burkart K, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cámera LA, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Cattaruzza MSS, Chang JC, Chen S, Chu DT, Chung SC, Cirillo M, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Dadras O, Dai X, Damasceno AAM, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darega Gela J, Davletov K, Derbew Molla M, Dessie GA, Desta AA, Dharmaratne SD, Dianatinasab M, Diaz D, Do HT, Douiri A, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Eagan AW, Ebrahimi Kalan M, Edvardsson K, Elbarazi I, El Tantawi M, Esmaeilnejad S, Fadhil I, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Farwati M, Farzadfar F, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Feldman R, Fernandez Prendes C, Ferrara P, Filip I, Filippidis F, Fischer F, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Gad MM, Gaidhane AM, Gallus S, Geberemariyam BS, Ghafourifard M, Ghajar A, Ghashghaee A, Giampaoli S, Gill PS, Glozah FN, Gnedovskaya EV, Golechha M, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Greaves F, Guha A, Guo Y, Gupta B, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haider MR, Hamadeh RR, Hankey GJ, Hargono A, Hartono RK, Hassankhani H, Hay SI, Heidari G, Herteliu C, Hezam K, Hird TR, Hole MK, Holla R, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsiao T, Huang J, Iannucci VC, Ibitoye SE, Idrisov B, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Irvani SSN, Islam JY, Islam RM, Islam SMS, Islami F, Iso H, Itumalla R, Iwagami M, Jaafari J, Jain V, Jakovljevic M, Jang SI, Janjani H, Jayaram S, Jeemon P, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joo T, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kapoor N, Karimi SE, Katikireddi SV, Kebede HK, Kelkay B, Kennedy RD, Khoja AT, Khubchandani J, Kim GR, Kim YE, Kimokoti RW, Kivimäki M, Kosen S, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Lacey B, Lam JO, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lee DW, Lee YH, Leung J, Li S, Lin H, Linn S, Liu W, Lopez AD, Lopukhov PD, Lorkowski S, Lugo A, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manjunatha N, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Martinez-Raga J, Martini S, Mathur MR, Medina-Solís CE, Mehata S, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Miazgowski B, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Misra S, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohammad Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moni MA, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh R, Morrison SD, Mossie TB, Mubarik S, Mullany EC, Murray CJL, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Nair S, Nalini M, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Naveed M, Nayak S, Nayak VC, Nazari J, Nduaguba SO, Neupane Kandel S, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen SH, Nguyen TH, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Ogbo FA, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Oren E, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pakhale S, Pakshir K, Palladino R, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Parekh U, Park EC, Park EK, Pashazadeh Kan F, Patton GC, Pawar S, Pestell RG, Pinheiro M, Piradov MA, Pirouzpanah S, Pokhrel KN, Polibin RV, Prashant A, Pribadi DRA, Radfar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman A, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rajai N, Ram P, Ranabhat CL, Rathi P, Rawal L, Renzaho AMN, Reynales-Shigematsu LM, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Riaz MA, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roy A, Roy B, Sacco S, Saddik B, Sahebkar A, Salehi S, Salimzadeh H, Samaei M, Samy AM, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarrafzadegan N, Sathian B, Sawhney M, Saylan M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwendicke F, Seidu AA, Senthil Kumar N, Sepanlou SG, Seylani A, Shafaat O, Shah SM, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shivakumar KM, Shivalli S, Shrestha R, Siabani S, Sidemo NB, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sitas F, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soboka M, Soriano JB, Soroush A, Soshnikov S, Soyiri IN, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Stein DJ, Steiropoulos P, Stortecky S, Straif K, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Sundström J, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Taddele BW, Tadesse EG, Tamiru AT, Tareke M, Tareque MI, Tarigan IU, Temsah MH, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Tichopad A, Tolani MA, Topouzis F, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tripathy JP, Tsegaye GW, Tsilimparis N, Tymeson HD, Ullah A, Ullah S, Unim B, Updike RL, Vacante M, Valdez PR, Vardavas C, Varona Pérez P, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Verma M, Vetrova MV, Vo B, Vu GT, Waheed Y, Wang Y, Welding K, Werdecker A, Whisnant JL, Wickramasinghe ND, Yamagishi K, Yandrapalli S, Yatsuya H, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeshaw Y, Yimmer MZ, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Yunusa I, Yusefzadeh H, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zaman MS, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zar HJ, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang J, Zhang ZJ, Zhong C, Zuniga YMH, Gakidou E. Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2021; 397:2337-2360. [PMID: 34051883 PMCID: PMC8223261 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01169-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 496] [Impact Index Per Article: 165.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2020] [Revised: 02/15/2021] [Accepted: 05/19/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. METHODS We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. FINDINGS Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. INTERPRETATION In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. FUNDING Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Sartorius B, VanderHeide JD, Yang M, Goosmann EA, Hon J, Haeuser E, Cork MA, Perkins S, Jahagirdar D, Schaeffer LE, Serfes AL, LeGrand KE, Abbastabar H, Abebo ZH, Abosetugn AE, Abu-Gharbieh E, Accrombessi MMK, Adebayo OM, Adegbosin AE, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adeyinka DA, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Akalu Y, Akinyemi OO, Akinyemi RO, Aklilu A, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam N, Alamneh AA, Alanzi TM, Alemu BW, Alhassan RK, Ali T, Alipour V, Amini S, Ancuceanu R, Ansari F, Anteneh ZA, Anvari D, Anwer R, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Asemahagn MA, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Asmare WN, Atnafu DD, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Ausloos M, Awedew AF, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Ayza MA, Azari S, Azene ZN, Babar ZUD, Baig AA, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Bayati M, Bedi N, Bekuma TT, Bezabhe WMM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bikbov B, Birhan TA, Bitew ZW, Bockarie MJ, Boloor A, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Briko AN, Briko NI, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chowdhury MAK, Chu DT, Cook AJ, Cormier NM, Cowden RG, Culquichicon C, Dagnew B, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Daoud F, Daryani A, das Neves J, Davis Weaver N, Derbew Molla M, Deribe K, Desta AA, Deuba K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Doku PN, Dubljanin E, Duko B, Eagan AW, Earl L, Eaton JW, Effiong A, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elayedath R, El-Jaafary SI, Elsharkawy A, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Ezzikouri S, Fasanmi AO, Fasil A, Fauk NK, Feigin VL, Ferede TY, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Geberemariyam BS, Gebregiorgis BG, Gebremichael B, Gesesew HA, Getacher L, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Ginindza TG, Glagn M, Golechha M, Gona PN, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guled RA, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Handiso DW, Hargono A, Hashi A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hayat K, Herteliu C, Hidru HDD, Holla R, Hosgood HD, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Irvani SSN, Iwu CCD, Iwu CJ, Iyamu IO, Jain V, Jakovljevic M, Jalilian F, Jha RP, Johnson KB, Joshua V, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kamath A, Kamyari N, Kanchan T, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karimi SE, Kasa AS, Kassahun G, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Keiyoro PN, Kelkay B, Khalid N, Khan G, Khan J, Khan MN, Khatab K, Khazaei S, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kochhar S, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kugbey N, Kulkarni V, Kumar M, Kumar N, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, Kuupiel D, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Lam JO, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lazarus JV, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lee PH, Leshargie CT, Li B, Liu X, Lopukhov PD, M. Amin HI, Madi D, Mahasha PW, Majeed A, Maleki A, Maleki S, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Mayala BK, Meharie BG, Meheretu HAA, Meles HG, Melku M, Mendoza W, Mengesha EW, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mirica A, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Mohamad O, Mohammad Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed JA, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mokonnon TM, Molokhia M, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mosser JF, Munro SB, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naveed M, Nayak VC, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Nepal S, Netsere HB, Ngalesoni FN, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nigatu YT, Nigussie SN, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Ogbo FA, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omer MO, Omonisi AEE, Onwujekwe OE, Orisakwe OE, Otstavnov N, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pana A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Patel UK, Pathak M, Patton GC, Pawar S, Peprah EK, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Pottoo FH, Pourjafar H, Pribadi DRA, Quazi Syed Z, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ram P, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rao S, Rao SJ, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Renjith V, Reta MA, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Ribeiro AI, Ross JM, Rumisha SF, Sagar R, Sahu M, Sajadi SM, Salem MR, Samy AM, Sathian B, Schutte AE, Seidu AA, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shahbaz M, Shaikh MA, Shaka MF, Sheikh A, Shibuya K, Shin JI, Shivakumar KM, Sidemo NB, Singh JA, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soheili A, Soltani S, Somefun OD, Sorrie MB, Spurlock EE, Sufiyan MB, Taddele BW, Tadesse EG, Tamir Z, Tamiru AT, Tanser FC, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalegn Y, Tesfay FH, Tessema B, Tessema ZT, Thakur B, Tolani MA, Topor-Madry R, Torrado M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tsai AC, Tsegaye GW, Ullah I, Ullah S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Vardavas C, Violante FS, Vo B, Wado YD, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Ward P, Werdecker A, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wondmeneh TG, Yamada T, Yaya S, Yeshaw Y, Yeshitila YG, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yosef T, Yusefzadeh H, Zaidi SS, Zaki L, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zewdie DT, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Ziapour A, Hay SI, Dwyer-Lindgren L. Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study. Lancet HIV 2021; 8:e363-e375. [PMID: 34087097 PMCID: PMC8187986 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(21)00051-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2020] [Revised: 03/05/2021] [Accepted: 03/09/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. FINDINGS The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. INTERPRETATION Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Feigin VL. National Estimates of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Burden Need to Account for Within-Country Variations. Neurology 2021; 97:14-15. [PMID: 33931536 DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0000000000012131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
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Balabanski AH, Dos Santos A, Woods JA, Thrift AG, Kleinig TJ, Suchy-Dicey A, Siri SR, Boden-Albala B, Krishnamurthi R, Feigin VL, Buchwald D, Ranta A, Mienna CS, Zavaleta C, Churilov L, Burchill L, Zion D, Longstreth WT, Tirschwell DL, Anand S, Parsons MW, Brown A, Warne DK, Harwood M, Katzenellenbogen JM. The Incidence of Stroke in Indigenous Populations of Countries With a Very High Human Development Index: A Systematic Review Protocol. Front Neurol 2021; 12:661570. [PMID: 33967945 PMCID: PMC8100239 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2021.661570] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2021] [Accepted: 03/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and Aims: Despite known Indigenous health and socioeconomic disadvantage in countries with a Very High Human Development Index, data on the incidence of stroke in these populations are sparse. With oversight from an Indigenous Advisory Board, we will undertake a systematic review of the incidence of stroke in Indigenous populations of developed countries or regions, with comparisons between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations of the same region, though not between different Indigenous populations. Methods: Using PubMed, OVID-EMBASE, and Global Health databases, we will examine population-based incidence studies of stroke in Indigenous adult populations of developed countries published 1990-current, without language restriction. Non-peer-reviewed sources, studies including <10 Indigenous People, or with insufficient data to determine incidence, will be excluded. Two reviewers will independently validate the search strategies, screen titles and abstracts, and record reasons for rejection. Relevant articles will undergo full-text screening, with standard data extracted for all studies included. Quality assessment will include Sudlow and Warlow's criteria for population-based stroke incidence studies, the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for risk of bias, and the CONSIDER checklist for Indigenous research. Results: Primary outcomes include crude, age-specific and/or age-standardized incidence of stroke. Secondary outcomes include overall stroke rates, incidence rate ratio and case-fatality. Results will be synthesized in figures and tables, describing data sources, populations, methodology, and findings. Within-population meta-analysis will be performed if, and where, methodologically sound and comparable studies allow this. Conclusion: We will undertake the first systematic review assessing disparities in stroke incidence in Indigenous populations of developed countries. Data outputs will be disseminated to relevant Indigenous stakeholders to inform public health and policy research.
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Feigin VL. 7th International Conference on Neurology and Epidemiology. Neuroepidemiology 2021; 55 Suppl 1:III. [PMID: 33725690 DOI: 10.1159/000515204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2021] [Accepted: 02/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
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Rehman S, Phan HT, Reeves MJ, Thrift AG, Cadilhac DA, Sturm J, Breslin M, Callisaya M, Vemmos KN, Parmar PG, Krishnamurthi RV, Barker-Collo S, Feigin VL, Chausson N, Olindo S, Cabral N, Carolei A, Marini C, Sacco S, Correia M, Appelros P, Korv J, Vibo R, Minelli C, Sposato L, Pandian JD, Kaur P, Azarpazhooh MR, Morovatdar N, Gall SL. Abstract P38: Pooled Analysis of Long and Short Term Outcomes After Subarachnoid Hemorrhage - International Stroke Outcomes Study (INSTRUCT). Stroke 2021. [DOI: 10.1161/str.52.suppl_1.p38] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background:
Outcomes after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) have been rarely examined in large cohorts.
Methods:
This is an extension of the International Stroke Outcomes Study (INSTRUCT) pooling 13 ‘ideal’ stroke incidence studies (n=657 with SAH from 1993-2017, median age 56 years; 46% men). The primary outcomes were mortality and functional outcome (mRS score 3-5). Harmonized study factors included age, sex, behaviors (current smoking, alcohol intake), comorbidities (history of hypertension, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation), stroke severity (e.g. NIHSS score) and year of stroke. In the pooled dataset, we estimated predictors of mortality using Poisson regression, to estimate incidence rate ratio (IRR) at 1 month (11 studies), 1 year (12 studies) and 5 years (7 studies). Generalized equation estimates in the log-binomial family were used to calculate risk ratios (RRs) for predictors of poor functional outcome at 1 month (5 studies) and 1 year (8 studies).
Results:
Mortality was 33% at 1 month, 43% at 1 year, and 47% at 5 years (Fig 1). Poor functional outcome was 25% at 1 month and 15% at 1 year (Fig 1). In multivariable analysis, age and stroke severity were associated with mortality at all time points, together with current smoking at 1 and 5 years, and history of hypertension at 5 years (Fig 2). Poor functional outcome was predicted by age (RR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.04) at 1 month and by age (RR 1.04; 95% CI 1.00-1.08) and stroke severity (RR 1.94; 95% CI 1.02-2.87) at 1 year.
Conclusion:
Risk factors that predict SAH incidence including hypertension and smoking make outcomes worse. Better management of older patients and those with severe strokes could improve outcomes after SAH.
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Thompson S, Davis A, Gommans J, McNaughton H, Barber A, Fink JN, Cadilhac DA, Matire H, Abernethy G, Feigin VL, Denison H, Corbin M, Levack W, Douwes J, Ranta A. Abstract P231: Geographic Location Impacts Access to Stroke Rehabilitation Services. Stroke 2021. [DOI: 10.1161/str.52.suppl_1.p231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background:
Non-urban hospitals often operate under greater resource constraints and less specialisation due to reduced economy of scale. We assessed whether access to stroke rehabilitation services is affected by hospital geographic location. In addition, we assessed the impact of specific rehabilitation interventions on patient outcomes.
Methods:
REGIONS Care is a New Zealand (NZ) nationwide prospective observational study with up to one-year follow-up exploring ethnic and geographic inequities in stroke care access and outcome. For this analysis, we compared rehabilitation outcomes and service access in urban versus non-urban hospital settings. The main outcome was favorable modified Rankin Scale of 0-2 at 3, 6, and 12 months. Outcomes were adjusted for age, stroke severity, pre-morbid function, and other potential confounders using multivariate logistic regression.
Results:
This cohort included 2379 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of stroke who were admitted to a NZ hospital between 1 May 2018 and 31 October 2018. There was no significant difference between geographic locations in access to inpatient services (OR=1.00; p=0.99) or reaching inpatient rehabilitation within seven days of admission (OR=1.16; p=0.32). Patients in non-urban areas had poorer access to intensive inpatient therapy (OR=0.54; p<0.001) and community rehabilitation services (OR=0.68; p<0.001). Compared to patients in urban areas, access to community rehabilitation within seven days of hospital discharge (OR=0.59; p=0.003) was also poorer. Documented goal setting with input from the patient/carer and the interdisciplinary team (IDT) was higher in non-urban centres (OR=1.42; p<0.001). Intensive therapy during inpatient rehabilitation was associated with improved mRS at 3 months (aOR=1.34; p=0.05), 6 months (aOR=1.47; p=0.04) and 12 months (aOR=1.62; p=0.008).
Conclusions:
Patients admitted to non-urban hospital experience better IDT goal setting, but poorer access to community rehabilitation services and less intensive physical therapy during inpatient rehabilitation. Reduced therapy intensity resulted in a lower rate of functional independence at 3 months. These results will drive service improvements in the stroke rehabilitation space.
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Ranta A, Thompson S, Davis A, Barber PA, Fink J, Gommans J, Cadilhac DA, Harwood M, McNaughton H, Abernethy G, Girvan J, Feigin VL, Denison H, Corbin M, Levack W, Wilson A, Douwes J. Abstract 29: Urban versus Non-Urban Hospital Location Impacts on Stroke Outcomes. Stroke 2021. [DOI: 10.1161/str.52.suppl_1.29] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Introduction:
Stroke care provision differs between urban and provincial hospitals predominantly due to economy of scale, which is correlated with resources available and degree of specialisation. We assessed the impact of urban versus non-urban hospital location on stroke outcomes.
Methods:
REGIONS Care is a New Zealand (NZ) nationwide prospective observational study that included consecutively admitted stroke patients involving all NZ stroke hospitals between 1 May and 31 October 2018. Patients were followed-up at 3, 6, and 12 months. The primary outcome was favourable modified Rankin Score of 0-2. Results were adjusted for age, stroke severity, pre-morbid level of independence and other potential confounders using multivariate logistic regression.
Results:
Of the 2,379 patients (mean age (SD), 75 (13.7)), 1,963 (82.6%) had ischaemic strokes and 291 (12.3%) haemorrhagic strokes. The odds of achieving a favourable outcome at 3 and 6 months was significantly lower for patients treated in non-urban compared to urban hospitals: aOR 0.72 (95%CI:0.56-0.93; p=0.012) and aOR 0.71 (95%CI:0.52-0.96; p=0.028), respectively. At 12-months this difference was less pronounced (aOR 0.77, 95%CI:0.57-1.04; p=0.089). Similarly, death was significantly more likely at 3 and 6 months, and borderline statistically significant at 12 months: aOR 1.64, 95%CI:1.30-2.29, p=0.001; 1.54, 95%CI:1.12-2.11, p=0.008; and 1.36, 95%CI:0.99-1.87, p=0.06, respectively. Stroke recurrence was similar between urban and non-urban settings at 3 and 6 months, but more likely in the non-urban setting at 12 months (aOR 1.94, 95%CI:1.14-3.29, p=0.014. In the non-urban setting, eligible patients were less likely to receive reperfusion therapy (aOR 0.5, 95%CI:0.28-0.91, p=0.023); acute stroke unit care was less consistently accessed (aOR 0.58, 95%CI:0.48-0.70, p<0.001); and appropriate secondary preventive therapy was less frequently prescribed (aOR 0.50, 95%CI:0.28-0.91, p=0.023).
Conclusion:
This first comprehensive prospective NZ nationwide stroke study showed significant differences in stroke outcomes and access to key acute stroke interventions between urban and non-urban hospitals. This inequity requires urgent intervention from health system funders and providers.
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Jones KM, Ameratunga S, Starkey NJ, Theadom A, Barker-Collo S, Ikeda T, Feigin VL. Psychosocial functioning at 4-years after pediatric mild traumatic brain injury. Brain Inj 2021; 35:416-425. [PMID: 33539250 DOI: 10.1080/02699052.2021.1878553] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
Objective: Behavioral and emotional difficulties are reported following pediatric mild traumatic brain injury (TBI). But few studies have used a broad conceptual approach to examine children's long-term psychosocial outcomes. This study examines children's psychosocial outcomes at 4-years after mild TBI and associated factors.Methods: Parents of 93 children (<16 years) with mild TBI completed subscales of age-appropriate versions of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, the Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function, the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory, and the Adolescent Scale of Participation questionnaire at 4-years post-injury.Results: Mean group-level scores were statistically significantly higher for hyperactivity/inattention and lower for emotional functioning than published norms. Levels of participation were greater compared to those observed in normative samples. More than 19% met published criteria for clinically significant hyperactivity/inattention, emotional functioning problems, peer relationship problems, and social functioning difficulties. Lower family socio-economic status and greater parental anxiety and depression were associated with overall psychosocial difficulties.Conclusions: Findings indicate that as a group, children with mild TBI are characterized by elevated rates of behavioral, emotional, and social difficulties at 4-years post-injury. Parent mental health may be an untapped opportunity to support children's psychosocial development following mild TBI, with replication required in larger samples.
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Feigin VL, Vos T, Alahdab F, Amit AML, Bärnighausen TW, Beghi E, Beheshti M, Chavan PP, Criqui MH, Desai R, Dhamminda Dharmaratne S, Dorsey ER, Wilder Eagan A, Elgendy IY, Filip I, Giampaoli S, Giussani G, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hole MK, Ikeda T, Owens Johnson C, Kalani R, Khatab K, Khubchandani J, Kim D, Koroshetz WJ, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamurthi RV, Liu X, Lo WD, Logroscino G, Mensah GA, Miller TR, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrison SD, Shivamurthy VKN, Naghavi M, Nichols E, Norrving B, Odell CM, Pupillo E, Radfar A, Roth GA, Shafieesabet A, Sheikh A, Sheikhbahaei S, Shin JI, Singh JA, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Wallin MT, Weiss J, Wu C, Zunt JR, Adelson JD, Murray CJL. Burden of Neurological Disorders Across the US From 1990-2017: A Global Burden of Disease Study. JAMA Neurol 2021; 78:165-176. [PMID: 33136137 PMCID: PMC7607495 DOI: 10.1001/jamaneurol.2020.4152] [Citation(s) in RCA: 238] [Impact Index Per Article: 79.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Question What is the current burden of neurological disorders in the US by states, and what are the temporal trends (from 1990 to 2017)? Findings Systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study shows that, in 2017, the 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US were stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, and migraine. The burden of individual neurological disorders varied moderately to widely by states (a 1.2-fold to 7.5-fold difference), and the absolute numbers of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases and disability-adjusted life-years of neurological disorders (except for traumatic brain injury incidence; spinal cord injury prevalence; meningitis prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years; and encephalitis disability-adjusted life-years) across all US states increased from 1990 to 2017. Meaning A large and increasing number of people have various neurological disorders in the US, with significant variation in the burden of and trends in neurological disorders across the US states, and the reasons for these geographic variations need to be explored further. Importance Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US. Objective To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017. Design, Setting, and Participants This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Exposures Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases. Main Outcome and Measure Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated. Results The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 [95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.25-3.92] million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 [95% UI, 2.43-2.68] million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 [95% UI, 1.53-3.44] million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (−29.1% [95% UI, −32.4% to −25.8%]); spinal cord injury prevalence (−38.5% [95% UI, −43.1% to −34.0%]); meningitis prevalence (−44.8% [95% UI, −47.3% to −42.3%]), deaths (−64.4% [95% UI, −67.7% to −50.3%]), and DALYs (−66.9% [95% UI, −70.1% to −55.9%]); and encephalitis DALYs (−25.8% [95% UI, −30.7% to −5.8%]). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus. Conclusions and Relevance There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.
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Roth GA, Mensah GA, Johnson CO, Addolorato G, Ammirati E, Baddour LM, Barengo NC, Beaton AZ, Benjamin EJ, Benziger CP, Bonny A, Brauer M, Brodmann M, Cahill TJ, Carapetis J, Catapano AL, Chugh SS, Cooper LT, Coresh J, Criqui M, DeCleene N, Eagle KA, Emmons-Bell S, Feigin VL, Fernández-Solà J, Fowkes G, Gakidou E, Grundy SM, He FJ, Howard G, Hu F, Inker L, Karthikeyan G, Kassebaum N, Koroshetz W, Lavie C, Lloyd-Jones D, Lu HS, Mirijello A, Temesgen AM, Mokdad A, Moran AE, Muntner P, Narula J, Neal B, Ntsekhe M, Moraes de Oliveira G, Otto C, Owolabi M, Pratt M, Rajagopalan S, Reitsma M, Ribeiro ALP, Rigotti N, Rodgers A, Sable C, Shakil S, Sliwa-Hahnle K, Stark B, Sundström J, Timpel P, Tleyjeh IM, Valgimigli M, Vos T, Whelton PK, Yacoub M, Zuhlke L, Murray C, Fuster V. Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study. J Am Coll Cardiol 2020; 76:2982-3021. [PMID: 33309175 PMCID: PMC7755038 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2020.11.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4038] [Impact Index Per Article: 1009.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2020] [Revised: 11/06/2020] [Accepted: 11/06/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.
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Deuschl G, Beghi E, Fazekas F, Varga T, Christoforidi KA, Sipido E, Bassetti CL, Vos T, Feigin VL. The burden of neurological diseases in Europe: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 5:e551-e567. [PMID: 33007212 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30190-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 62.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2020] [Revised: 08/12/2020] [Accepted: 08/17/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Neurological disorders account for a large and increasing health burden worldwide, as shown in the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2016. Unpacking how this burden varies regionally and nationally is important to inform public health policy and prevention strategies. The population in the EU is older than that of the WHO European region (western, central, and eastern Europe) and even older than the global population, suggesting that it might be particularly vulnerable to an increasing burden of age-related neurological disorders. We aimed to compare the burden of neurological disorders in the EU between 1990 and 2017 with those of the WHO European region and worldwide. METHODS The burden of neurological disorders was calculated for the year 2017 as incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost, and years lived with disability for the countries in the EU and the WHO European region, totally and, separately. Diseases analysed were Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, epilepsy, headache (migraine and tension-type headache), multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, brain cancer, motor neuron diseases, neuroinfectious diseases, and stroke. Data are presented as totals and by sex, age, year, location and socio-demographic context, and shown as counts and rates. FINDINGS In 2017, the total number of DALYs attributable to neurological disorders was 21·0 million (95% uncertainty interval 18·5-23·9) in the EU and 41·1 million (36·7-45·9) in the WHO European region, and the total number of deaths was 1·1 million (1·09-1·14) in the EU and 1·97 million (1·95-2·01) in the WHO European region. In the EU, neurological disorders ranked third after cardiovascular diseases and cancers representing 13·3% (10·3-17·1) of total DALYs and 19·5% (18·0-21·3) of total deaths. Stroke, dementias, and headache were the three commonest causes of DALYs in the EU. Stroke was also the leading cause of DALYs in the WHO European region. During the study period we found a substantial increase in the all-age burden of neurodegenerative diseases, despite a substantial decrease in the rates of stroke and infections. The burden of neurological disorders in Europe was higher in men than in women, peaked in individuals aged 80-84 years, and varied substantially with WHO European region and country. All-age DALYs, deaths, and prevalence of neurological disorders increased in all-age measures, but decreased when using age-standardised measures in all but three countries (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan). The decrease was mostly attributed to the reduction of premature mortality despite an overall increase in the number of DALYs. INTERPRETATION Neurological disorders are the third most common cause of disability and premature death in the EU and their prevalence and burden will likely increase with the progressive ageing of the European population. Greater attention to neurological diseases must be paid by health authorities for prevention and care. The data presented here suggest different priorities for health service development and resource allocation in different countries. FUNDING European Academy of Neurology.
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Murray CJL, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abualhasan A, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abushouk AI, Adabi M, Adekanmbi V, Adeoye AM, Adetokunboh OO, Adham D, Advani SM, Agarwal G, Aghamir SMK, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Akalu TY, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akombi B, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam S, Alam T, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alemu BW, Alhabib KF, Ali M, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alinia C, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Altirkawi KA, Amini-Rarani M, Amiri F, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angus C, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonazzo IC, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Ariani F, Armoon B, Ärnlöv J, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Ashbaugh C, Assmus M, Atafar Z, Atnafu DD, Atout MMW, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Azarian G, Azene ZN, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Bahrami MA, Bakhshaei MH, Bakhtiari A, Bakkannavar SM, Baldasseroni A, Ball K, Ballew SH, Balzi D, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Bante AB, Baraki AG, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Barthelemy CM, Barua L, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Becker JS, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bennitt FB, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhageerathy R, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Bisignano C, Biswas RK, Bitew H, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Boon-Dooley AS, Borges G, Borzì AM, Borzouei S, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Braithwaite D, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briant PS, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton GB, Bryazka D, Bumgarner BR, Burkart K, Burnett RT, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahill LE, Cámera LLAA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Causey K, Cederroth CR, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chang KL, Charlson FJ, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi S, Cherbuin N, Chimed-Ochir O, Cho DY, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Chu DT, Chung MT, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Classen TKD, Cohen AJ, Compton K, Cooper OR, Costa VM, Cousin E, Cowden RG, Cross DH, Cruz JA, Dahlawi SMA, Damasceno AAM, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dangel WJ, Danielsson AK, Dargan PI, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davitoiu DV, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, DeLang M, Dellavalle RP, Demeke FM, Demoz GT, Demsie DG, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Dhungana GP, Dianatinasab M, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dibaji Forooshani ZS, Djalalinia S, Do HT, Dokova K, Dorostkar F, Doshmangir L, Driscoll TR, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Eagan AW, Edvardsson D, El Nahas N, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elgendy IY, El-Jaafary SI, Elyazar IRF, Emmons-Bell S, Erskine HE, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilnejad S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Etemadi A, Etisso AE, Fanzo J, Farahmand M, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Farioli A, Faro A, Faruque M, Farzadfar F, Fattahi N, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Feldman R, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Ferrara G, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira ML, Filip I, Fischer F, Fisher JL, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Force LM, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Freitas M, Fu W, Fukumoto T, Furtado JM, Gad MM, Gakidou E, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gardner WM, Geberemariyam BS, Gebreslassie AAAA, Geremew A, Gershberg Hayoon A, Gething PW, Ghadimi M, Ghadiri K, Ghaffarifar F, Ghafourifard M, Ghamari F, Ghashghaee A, Ghiasvand H, Ghith N, Gholamian A, Ghosh R, Gill PS, Ginindza TGG, Giussani G, Gnedovskaya EV, Goharinezhad S, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Greaves F, Grivna M, Grosso G, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guimarães RA, Guled RA, Guo G, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta T, Haddock B, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hafiz A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Halvaei I, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammer MS, Hankey GJ, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasanpoor E, Hashi A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Henrikson HJ, Herbert ME, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hird TR, Hoek HW, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hu G, Hu K, Huda TM, Humayun A, Huynh CK, Hwang BF, Iannucci VC, Ibitoye SE, Ikeda N, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Inbaraj LR, Ippolito H, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam MM, Islam SMS, Iso H, Ivers RQ, Iwu CCD, Iwu CJ, Iyamu IO, Jaafari J, Jacobsen KH, Jafari H, Jafarinia M, Jahani MA, Jakovljevic M, Jalilian F, James SL, Janjani H, Javaheri T, Javidnia J, Jeemon P, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Johansson L, John O, John-Akinola YO, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalani H, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kanchan T, Kapoor N, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karim MA, Kassa GM, Katikireddi SV, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Keiyoro PN, Keller C, Kemmer L, Kendrick PJ, Khalid N, Khammarnia M, Khan EA, Khan M, Khatab K, Khater MM, Khatib MN, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaei S, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kivimäki M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kopec JA, Korshunov VA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kraemer MUG, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kromhout H, Kuate Defo B, Kumar GA, Kumar V, Kurmi OP, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lami FH, Landires I, Lang JJ, Langan SM, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Lee SWH, LeGrand KE, Leigh J, Leonardi M, Lescinsky H, Leung J, Levi M, Li S, Lim LL, Linn S, Liu S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lo J, Lopez AD, Lopez JCF, Lopukhov PD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lu A, Lugo A, Maddison ER, Mahasha PW, Mahdavi MM, Mahmoudi M, Majeed A, Maleki A, Maleki S, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Manguerra H, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Mansouri B, Mansournia MA, Mantilla Herrera AM, Maravilla JC, Marks A, Martin RV, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Masoumi SZ, Mathur MR, Matsushita K, Maulik PK, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehndiratta MM, Mehri F, Mehta KM, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mereke A, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mini GK, Miri M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirzaei H, Mirzaei M, Mirzaei R, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Misganaw AT, Mithra P, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Y, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed AS, Mohammed H, Mohammed JA, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Mooney MD, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morgado-da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Mullany EC, Musa KI, Muthupandian S, Nabhan AF, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naghshtabrizi B, Naimzada MD, Najafi F, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Naserbakht M, Nayak VC, Negoi I, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen M, Nigatu YT, Nikbakhsh R, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nomura S, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nowak C, Nunez-Samudio V, Oţoiu A, Oancea B, Odell CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okunga EW, Oladnabi M, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omer MO, Ong KL, Onwujekwe OE, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Ostroff SM, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Palladino R, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Parry CDH, Pasovic M, Pasupula DK, Patel SK, Pathak M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pennini A, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira DM, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Phillips MR, Piccinelli C, Pilz TM, Piradov MA, Pirsaheb M, Plass D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Pourjafar H, Pourmalek F, Poznańska A, Prada SI, Prakash V, Pribadi DRA, Pupillo E, Quazi Syed Z, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiee A, Raggi A, Rahman MA, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajati F, Rakovac I, Ram P, Ramezanzadeh K, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rao SJ, Rashedi V, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Rawat R, Razo C, Redford SB, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Rhinehart PA, Riahi SM, Ribeiro DC, Ribeiro D, Rickard J, Rivera JA, Roberts NLS, Rodríguez-Ramírez S, Roever L, Ronfani L, Room R, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rwegerera GM, Sabour S, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Saeedi R, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari Y, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sajadi SM, Salam N, Salamati P, Salem H, Salem MRR, Salimzadeh H, Salman OM, Salomon JA, Samad Z, Samadi Kafil H, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric-Milicevic MM, Saraswathy SYI, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saxena S, Schaeffer LE, Schiavolin S, Schlaich MP, Schmidt MI, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Serre ML, Shadid J, Shafaat O, Shahabi S, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sheikh A, Sheikhtaheri A, Shibuya K, Shield KD, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shuval K, Siabani S, Sierpinski R, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silva JP, Simpson KE, Singh JA, Singh P, Skiadaresi E, Skou ST, Skryabin VY, Smith EUR, Soheili A, Soltani S, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soshnikov S, Soyiri IN, Spencer CN, Spotin A, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Straif K, Stubbs JL, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sulo G, Sultan I, Szumowski Ł, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tabuchi T, Taherkhani A, Tajdini M, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Tamiru AT, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temsah MH, Tesema GA, Tessema ZT, Thurston GD, Titova MV, Tohidinik HR, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MRR, Tran BX, Travillian R, Tsatsakis A, Tudor Car L, Tyrovolas S, Uddin R, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Vacante M, Valdez PR, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari TJ, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Vukovic R, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Wang Y, Wang YP, Watson A, Wei J, Wei MYW, Weintraub RG, Weiss J, Werdecker A, West JJ, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Whiteford HA, Wiens KE, Wolfe CDA, Wozniak SS, Wu AM, Wu J, Wulf Hanson S, Xu G, Xu R, Yadgir S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamagishi K, Yaminfirooz M, Yano Y, Yaya S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yeheyis TY, Yilgwan CS, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Younker TP, Yousefi B, Yousefi Z, Yousefinezhadi T, Yousuf AY, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zamani M, Zamanian M, Zandian H, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao JT, Zhao XJG, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Ziapour A, Zimsen SRM, Brauer M, Afshin A, Lim SS. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020; 396:1223-1249. [PMID: 33069327 PMCID: PMC7566194 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30752-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3431] [Impact Index Per Article: 857.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2019] [Revised: 03/21/2020] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. METHODS GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk-outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk-outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk-outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51-12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9-21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12-9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6-16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253-350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3-13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0-9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10-24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25-49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50-74 years and 75 years and older. INTERPRETATION Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Deshpande A, Miller-Petrie MK, Lindstedt PA, Baumann MM, Johnson KB, Blacker BF, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Abejie AN, Abreu LG, Abrigo MR, Abualhasan A, Accrombessi MMK, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhikari TB, Afarideh M, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Ahmed AE, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam S, Alam N, Alamene GM, Alanzi TM, Albright J, Albujeer A, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alebel A, Alemu ZA, Ali M, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amit AML, Amul GGH, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansariadi A, Antonio CAT, Antony B, Antriyandarti E, Arabloo J, Aref HMA, Aremu O, Armoon B, Arora A, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asmelash D, Atalay HT, Athari SM, Athari SS, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Awasthi S, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azman AS, Babaee E, Badawi A, Bagherzadeh M, Bakkannavar SM, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Banoub JAM, Barac A, Barboza MA, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Bay VD, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beheshti M, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Benzian H, Berbada DA, Bernstein RS, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Boufous S, Brady OJ, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton GB, Brown A, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Cámera LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Cerin E, Chalise B, Chattu VK, Chin KL, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Cormier NM, Costa VM, Cromwell EA, Dadi AFF, Dahiru T, Dahlawi SMA, Dandona R, Dandona L, Dang AK, Daoud F, Darwesh AM, Darwish AH, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, Dash AP, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, De la Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Demissie DB, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Desalew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon P, Dhimal M, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Dipeolu IO, Do HT, Dolecek C, Doyle KE, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Edinur HA, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Nahas N, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elhabashy HR, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Elsharkawy A, Enany S, Endalew DA, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Etemadi A, Ezekannagha O, Faraon EJA, Fareed M, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fasil AF, Fazlzadeh M, Feigin VL, Fekadu W, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Flohr C, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Frostad JJ, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Garcia GM, Gatotoh AM, Gayesa RT, Gebremedhin KB, Geramo YCD, Gesesew HA, Gezae KE, Ghashghaee A, Ghazi Sherbaf F, Gill TK, Gill PS, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Gizaw Z, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goulart BNG, Goulart AC, Grada A, Green MS, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guimarães RA, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Ha GH, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile DH, Haile MT, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Handiso DW, Haririan H, Hariyani N, Hasaballah AI, Hasan MM, Hasanzadeh A, Hassen HY, Hayelom DH, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari B, Hendrie D, Henok A, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Hidru HDD, Hird TR, Hoang CL, Hollerich GI, Hoogar P, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hu G, Humayun A, Hussain SA, Hussen MAA, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic MD, Imani-Nasab MH, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Ivers RQ, Iwu CJ, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Jha RP, Jha V, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kanchan T, Karch A, Karki S, Kasaeian A, Kasahun GG, Kasaye HK, Kassa GG, Kassa GM, Kayode GA, Kebede MM, Keiyoro PN, Ketema DB, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khan J, Khan MN, Khatab K, Khater MM, Khater AM, Khayamzadeh M, Khazaei M, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri A, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa S, Kisa A, Kochhar S, Kolola T, Komaki H, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kugbey N, Kumar P, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Lal A, Lal DK, Lam H, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lasrado S, Lebedev G, Lee PH, LeGrand KE, Leili M, Lenjebo TL, Leshargie CT, Levine AJ, Lewycka S, Li S, Linn S, Liu S, Lopez JCF, Lopukhov PD, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahadeshwara Prasad D, Mahasha PW, Mahotra NB, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Martinez G, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Mathur MR, Mayala BK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, Meharie BG, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mehta KM, Mekonnen T, Mekonnen TC, Meles GG, Meles HG, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Metekiya WM, Metekiya WM, Miazgowski B, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohajer B, Mohammad Y, Mohammad DK, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N, Mohammadibakhsh R, Mohammed S, Mohammed JA, Mohammed H, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Moodley Y, Moradi M, Moradi G, Moradi-Joo M, Moraga P, Morales L, Mosapour A, Mosser JF, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Mozaffor M, Munro SB, Muriithi MK, Murray CJL, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naik G, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Nazari J, Ndwandwe DE, Negoi I, Netsere HB, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen QP, Nigatu SG, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Norheim OF, Noubiap JJ, Oancea B, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Olagunju AT, Olusanya JO, Olusanya BO, Onwujekwe OE, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pana A, Park EK, Patel SK, Pathak A, Patle A, Paulos K, Pepito VCF, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pescarini JM, Pesudovs K, Pham HQ, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pirsaheb M, Poljak M, Pollock I, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Pourshams A, Prada SI, Preotescu L, Quintana H, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi S, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MA, Rahman MHU, Rajati F, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rasella D, Rath GK, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawasia WF, Remuzzi G, Renjith V, Renzaho AM, Resnikoff S, Riahi SM, Ribeiro AI, Rickard J, Roever L, Ronfani L, Rubagotti E, Rubino S, Saad AM, Sabour S, Sadeghi E, Saeedi Moghaddam S, Safari Y, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Sajadi SM, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Saleem A, Salem H, Salem MR, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Saraswathy SYI, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Sathish T, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Sayyah M, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schwebel DC, Senbeta AM, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Shafieesabet A, Shaheen AA, Shahid I, Shaikh MA, Shalash AS, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Shannawaz M, Sharafi K, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shetty BSK, Shiferaw WS, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shivakumar KM, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Silva DAS, Singh V, Singh NP, Singh BBS, Singh JA, Singh A, Sinha DN, Sisay MM, Skiadaresi E, Smith DL, Soares Filho AM, Sobhiyeh MR, Sokhan A, Soriano JB, Sorrie MB, Soyiri IN, Spurlock EE, Sreeramareddy CT, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Suleria HAR, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadesse DB, Tarigan IU, Taye B, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelemedhin SW, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Tesfay BE, Tesfay FH, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, ThekkePurakkal AS, Thomas N, Thompson RL, Thomson AJ, Topor-Madry R, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ullah I, Unnikrishnan B, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, Valdez PR, Varughese S, Veisani Y, Violante FS, Vollmer S, W/hawariat FG, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Wang Y, Wangdi K, Weiss DJ, Weldesamuel GT, Werkneh AA, Westerman R, Wiangkham T, Wiens KE, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolde HF, Wondafrash DZ, Wonde TE, Worku GT, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yamada T, Yaseri M, Yatsuya H, Yeshaneh A, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Yousof HASA, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zadey S, Zahirian Moghadam T, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zandian H, Zar HJ, Zerfu TA, Zhang Y, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Zuniga YMH, Hay SI, Reiner RC. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17. Lancet Glob Health 2020; 8:e1162-e1185. [PMID: 32827479 PMCID: PMC7443708 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30278-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2020] [Revised: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 06/04/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. METHODS We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. FINDINGS Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5-29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2-89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6-80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6-59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. INTERPRETATION Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Feng J, van Veen E, Yang C, Huijben JA, Lingsma HF, Gao G, Jiang J, Maas AI, Åkerlund C, Amrein K, Andelic N, Andreassen L, Anke A, Antoni A, Audibert G, Azouvi P, Azzolini ML, Bartels R, Barzó P, Beauvais R, Beer R, Bellander BM, Belli A, Benali H, Berardino M, Beretta L, Blaabjerg M, Bragge P, Brazinova A, Brinck V, Brooker J, Brorsson C, Buki A, Bullinger M, Cabeleira M, Caccioppola A, Calappi E, Calvi MR, Cameron P, Lozano GC, Carbonara M, Cavallo S, Chevallard G, Chieregato A, Citerio G, Care N, Ceyisakar I, Clusmann H, Coburn M, Coles J, Cooper JD, Correia M, Čović A, Curry N, Czeiter E, Czosnyka M, Dahyot-Fizelier C, Dark P, Dawes H, De Keyser V, Degos V, Corte FD, den Boogert H, Depreitere B, Đilvesi Đ, Dixit A, Donoghue E, Dreier J, Dulière GL, Ercole A, Esser P, Ezer E, Fabricius M, Feigin VL, Foks K, Frisvold S, Furmanov A, Gagliardo P, Galanaud, George P, Ghuysen A, Giga L, Glocker B, Golubovic J, Gomez PA, Gratz J, Gravesteijn B, Grossi F, Gruen RL, Gupta D, Haagsma JA, Haitsma I, Helbok R, Helseth E, Horton L, Hutchinson PJ, Jacobs B, Jankowski S, Jarrett M, Johnson F, Jones K, Karan M, Kolias AG, Kompanje E, Kondziella D, Koraropoulos E, Koskinen LO, Kovács N, Kowark A, Lagares A, Lanyon L, Laureys S, Lecky F, Department E, Ledoux D, Lefering R, Legrand V, Lejeune A, Levi L, Lightfoot R, Castaño-León AM, Maegele M, Majdan M, Manara A, Manley G, Martino C, Maréchal H, Mattern J, McMahon C, Melegh B, Menon D, Menovsky T, Mikolic A, Misset B, Muraleedharan V, Murray L, Negru A, Nelson D, Newcombe V, Nieboer D, Nyirádi J, Olubukola O, Oresic M, Ortolano F, Palotie A, Parizel PM, Payen JF, Perera N, Perlbarg V, Persona P, Peul W, Piippo-Karjalainen A, Pirinen M, Ples H, Polinder S, Pomposo I, Posti JP, Puybasset L, Radoi A, Ragauskas A, Raj R, Rambadagalla M, Rhodes J, Richardson S, Richter S, Ripatti S, Rocka S, Roe C, Roise O, Rosand J, Rosenfeld JV, Rosenlund C, Rosenthal G, Rossaint R, Rossi S, Rueckert D, Rusnák M, Sahuquillo J, Sakowitz O, Sanchez-Porras R, Sandor J, Schäfer N, Schmidt S, Schoechl H, Schoonman G, Schou RF, Schwendenwein E, Sewalt C, Skandsen T, Smielewski P, Sorinola A, Stamatakis E, Stanworth S, Stevens R, Stewart W, Steyerberg EW, Stocchetti N, Sundström N, Synnot A, Takala R, Tamás V, Tamosuitis T, Taylor MS, Ao BT, Tenovuo O, Theadom A, Thomas M, Tibboel D, Timmers M, Tolias C, Trapani T, Tudora CM, Vajkoczy P, Vallance S, Valeinis E, Vámos Z, van der Jagt M, Van der Steen G, van der Naalt J, van Dijck JT, van Essen TA, Van Hecke W, van Heugten C, Van Praag D, Vyvere TV, van Wijk RPJ, Vargiolu A, Vega E, Velt K, Verheyden J, Vespa PM, Vik A, Vilcinis R, Volovici V, von Steinbüchel N, Voormolen D, Vulekovic P, Wang KK, Wiegers E, Williams G, Wilson L, Winzeck S, Wolf S, Yang Z, Ylén P, Younsi A, Zeiler FA, Zelinkova V, Ziverte A, Zoerle T, Ma Y, Kang W, Fu S, Luan Y, Qin H, Sun Z, Guo H, Tian H, Ju S, Xu Y, Wei Q, Zhang S, Tu Y, Wang D, Zhang L, Long L, Jiang C, Yang X, Wen L, Liu K, Xu L, Liu J, Sun Z, Chen L, Jiang Y, Xu W, Gao Y, Jiang R, Guo Y, Gao L, Zeng T, Hou L, Zhao L, Zhu X, Lv S, Mou Z, Wu J, Xu Y, Dong B, Yang C, An Z, Wang X, Zhu X, Gu L, Ma C, Sun H, Li W, Huang X, Li L, Qiu B, Bao Y, Qian S, Bu X, Wang Y, Yang L, Fu X, Qian S, Zhang J, Fan S, Wang Y, Bao Y, Wang Y, Chen H, Cui G, Sun C, Guo Z, Li Y, Wang X, Zhou S, Wang X, Zhu X, Zheng G, Huang Q, Zhang Y, Feng H, Huang Y, Ren H, Hou B, Zhou C, Chen J, Hu J, Du Z, Wang S, Xiang P, Huang Y, Qu Y, Yu H, Wang R, Chen J, Chen J, Xu L, Kang P, Chen H, Wu G, Wang M, Li R, Zhang H, Li Y, Sun X, Tan X. Comparison of Care System and Treatment Approaches for Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury in China versus Europe: A CENTER-TBI Survey Study. J Neurotrauma 2020; 37:1806-1817. [PMID: 32174214 DOI: 10.1089/neu.2019.6900] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
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Krishnamurthi R, George A, Merkin A, Bhattacharjee R, Feigin VL. Can we stop the stroke tsunami? Mitigating the barriers, amplifying the facilitators. J R Soc N Z 2020. [DOI: 10.1080/03036758.2020.1798477] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
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Tomari S, Magin P, Lasserson D, Quain D, Valderas JM, Dewey HM, Barber PA, Spratt NJ, Cadilhac DA, Feigin VL, Rothwell PM, Zareie H, Garcia-Esperon C, Davey A, Najib N, Sales M, Levi CR. The Characteristics of Patients With Possible Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Stroke in the Hunter and Manning Valley Regions, Australia (the INSIST Study). Front Neurol 2020; 11:383. [PMID: 32670173 PMCID: PMC7326044 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2020.00383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2020] [Accepted: 04/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Transient ischemic attack (TIA) and minor stroke (TIAMS) are risk factors for stroke recurrence. Some TIAMS may be preventable by appropriate primary prevention. We aimed to recruit “possible-TIAMS” patients in the INternational comparison of Systems of care and patient outcomes In minor Stroke and TIA (INSIST) study. Methods: A prospective inception cohort study performed across 16 Hunter–Manning region, Australia, general practices in the catchment of one secondary-care acute neurovascular clinic. Possible-TIAMS patients were recruited from August 2012 to August 2016. We describe the baseline demographics, risk factors and pre-event medications of participating patients. Results: There were 613 participants (mean age; 69 ± 12 years, 335 women), and 604 (99%) were Caucasian. Hypertension was the most common risk factor (69%) followed by hyperlipidemia (52%), diabetes mellitus (17%), atrial fibrillation (AF) (17%), prior TIA (13%) or stroke (10%). Eighty-nine (36%) of the 249 participants taking antiplatelet therapy had no known history of cardiovascular morbidity. Of 102 participants with known AF, 91 (89%) had a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 2 but only 47 (46%) were taking anticoagulation therapy. Among 304 participants taking an antiplatelet or anticoagulant agent, 30 (10%) had stopped taking these in the month prior to the index event. Conclusion: This study provides the first contemporary data on TIAMS or TIAMS-mimics in Australia. Community and health provider education is required to address the under-use of anticoagulation therapy in patients with known AF, possibly inappropriate use of antiplatelet therapy and possibly inappropriate discontinuation of antiplatelet or anticoagulation therapy.
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Wiebers DO, Feigin VL. What the COVID-19 Crisis Is Telling Humanity. Neuroepidemiology 2020; 54:283-286. [PMID: 32498068 PMCID: PMC7316645 DOI: 10.1159/000508654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2020] [Accepted: 05/14/2020] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
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Brainin M, Feigin VL, Norrving B, Martins SCO, Hankey GJ, Hachinski V. Global prevention of stroke and dementia: the WSO Declaration. Lancet Neurol 2020; 19:487-488. [DOI: 10.1016/s1474-4422(20)30141-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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Merkin AG, Medvedev ON, Sachdev PS, Tippett L, Krishnamurthi R, Mahon S, Kasabov N, Parmar P, Crawford J, Doborjeh ZG, Doborjeh MG, Kang K, Kochan NA, Bahrami H, Brodaty H, Feigin VL. New avenue for the geriatric depression scale: Rasch transformation enhances reliability of assessment. J Affect Disord 2020; 264:7-14. [PMID: 31846809 DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2019.11.100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2019] [Revised: 10/23/2019] [Accepted: 11/21/2019] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Depression is a common problem in older adults. The 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) is a widely used psychometric tool for measuring depression in the elderly, but its psychometric properties have not been yet rigorously investigated. The aim was to evaluate psychometric properties of the GDS-15 and improve precision of the instrument by applying Rasch analysis and deriving conversion tables for transformation of raw scores into interval level data. METHODS The data was extracted from the prospective cohort Sydney Memory and Ageing Study of initially not demented individuals aged 70 years and older. The GDS-15 items scores of 212 participants (47.2% males) were analysed using the dichotomous Rasch model. RESULTS Initially poor reliability of the GDS-15, Person Separation Index (PSI) = 0.68, was improved by combining locally dependent items into seven super-items. These modifications improved reliability of the GDS-15 (PSI = 0.78) and resulted in the best Rasch model fit (χ2(28)=37.72, p = =0.104), strict unidimensionality and scale invariance across personal factors such as gender, diagnostic and language background. LIMITATIONS Presence of participants with cognitive impairment may be a potential limitation. CONCLUSIONS Reliability and psychometric characteristics of the GDS-15 were improved by minor modifications and now satisfy expectations of the unidimensional Rasch model. By using Rasch transformation tables published here psychiatrists, psychologists and researchers can transform GDS raw scores into interval-level data, which improves reliability of the GDS-15 without the need to modify its original response format. These findings increase accuracy of clinical psychometric assessments, leading to more precise diagnosis of depression in the elderly.
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