Ambient Temperature and External Causes of Death in Japan from 1979 to 2015: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Analysis

BACKGROUND

Although substantial evidence suggests that high and low temperatures are adversely associated with nonaccidental mortality, few studies have focused on exploring the risks of temperature on external causes of death.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the short-term associations between temperature and external causes of death and four specific categories (suicide, transport, falls, and drowning) in 47 prefectures of Japan from 1979 to 2015.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage meta-regression analysis. First, we performed time-stratified case-crossover analyses with a distributed lag nonlinear model to examine the association between temperature and mortality due to external causes for each prefecture. We then used a multivariate meta-regression model to combine the association estimates across all prefectures in Japan. In addition, we performed stratified analyses for the associations by sex and age.

RESULTS

A total of 2,416,707 external causes of death were included in the study. We found a J-shaped exposure-response curve for all external causes of death, in which the risks increased for mild cold temperatures [20th percentile; relative risk (RR)=1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05,1.12)] and extreme heat [99th percentile; RR=1.24 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.29)] compared with those for minimum mortality temperature (MMT). However, the shapes of the exposure-response curves varied according to four subcategories. The risks of suicide and transport monotonically increased as temperature increased, with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.26, 1.45) and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.35, 1.90), respectively, for heat, whereas J- and U-shaped curves were observed for falls and drowning, with RRs of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26) and 1.95 (95% CI: 1.70, 2.23) for heat and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.26) and 2.33 (95% CI: 1.89, 2.88) for cold, respectively, compared with those for cause-specific MMTs. The sex- and age-specific associations varied considerably depending on the specific causes.

DISCUSSION

Both low and high temperatures may be important drivers of increased risk of external causes of death. We suggest that preventive measures against external causes of death should be considered in adaptation policies. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9943.

Direct Comparison of US and MR Elastography for Staging Liver Fibrosis in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

As alternatives to the expensive liver biopsy for assessing liver fibrosis stage in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), we directly compared the diagnostic abilities of magnetic resonance elastography (MRE), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE).

METHODS

Overall, 231 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included. Intra- and inter-observer reproducibility was analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficient in a sub-group of 70 participants, in whom liver stiffness measurement (LSM) was performed by an elastography expert and an ultrasound expert who was an elastography trainee on the same day.

RESULTS

Valid LSMs were obtained for 227, 220, 204, and 201 patients using MRE, VCTE, 2D-SWE, and all three modalities combined, respectively. Although the area under the curve did not differ between the modalities for detecting stage ≥1, ≥2, and ≥3 liver fibrosis, it was higher for MRE than VCTE and 2D-SWE for stage 4. Sex was a significant predictor of discordance between VCTE and liver fibrosis stage. Skin-capsule distance and the ratio of the interquartile range of liver stiffness to the median were significantly associated with discordance between 2D-SWE and liver fibrosis stage. However, no factors were associated with discordance between MRE and liver fibrosis stage. Intra- and inter-observer reproducibility in detecting liver fibrosis was higher for MRE than VCTE and 2D-SWE.

CONCLUSIONS

MRE, VCTE, and 2D-SWE demonstrated excellent diagnostic accuracy in detecting liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. MRE demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy for stage 4 detection and intra- and inter-observer reproducibility. UMIN Clinical Trials Registry No. UMIN000031491.

Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association in the globe

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: −0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29–3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76–4.50) of total deaths for Q1–Q4 (first quartile–fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25–9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: −0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.

•

Increased temperature variability (TV) poses a greater mortality risk due to heat

•

TV has a more profound modification effect on extreme heat-mortality association

•

Strategies against heat and TV simultaneously would benefit public health

Differential Mortality Risks Associated With PM2.5 Components: A Multi-Country, Multi-City Study

BACKGROUND

The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality.

METHODS

We applied a 2-stage analysis on data collected from 210 locations in 16 countries. In the first stage, we estimated location-specific relative risks (RR) for mortality associated with daily total PM2.5 through time series regression analysis. We then pooled these estimates in a meta-regression model that included city-specific logratio-transformed proportions of seven PM2.5 components as well as meta-predictors derived from city-specific socio-economic and environmental indicators.

RESULTS

We found associations between RR and several PM2.5 components. Increasing the ammonium (NH4+) proportion from 1% to 22%, while keeping a relative average proportion of other components, increased the RR from 1.0063 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 1.0030, 1.0097) to 1.0102 (95% CI = 1.0070, 1.0135). Conversely, an increase in nitrate (NO3-) from 1% to 71% resulted in a reduced RR, from 1.0100 (95% CI = 1.0067, 1.0133) to 1.0037 (95% CI = 0.9998, 1.0077). Differences in composition explained a substantial part of the heterogeneity in PM2.5 risk.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings contribute to the identification of more hazardous emission sources. Further work is needed to understand the health impacts of PM2.5 components and sources given the overlapping sources and correlations among many components.

Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

BACKGROUND

Although seasonal variations in mortality have been recognized for millennia, the role of temperature remains unclear. We aimed to assess seasonal variation in mortality and to examine the contribution of temperature.

METHODS

We compiled daily data on all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, temperature and indicators on location-specific characteristics from 719 locations in tropical, dry, temperate and continental climate zones. We fitted time-series regression models to estimate the amplitude of seasonal variation in mortality on a daily basis, defined as the peak-to-trough ratio (PTR) of maximum mortality estimates to minimum mortality estimates at day of year. Meta-analysis was used to summarize location-specific estimates for each climate zone. We estimated the PTR with and without temperature adjustment, with the differences representing the seasonal effect attributable to temperature. We also evaluated the effect of location-specific characteristics on the PTR across locations by using meta-regression models.

RESULTS

Seasonality estimates and responses to temperature adjustment varied across locations. The unadjusted PTR for all-cause mortality was 1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.11] in the tropical zone and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.20-1.25) in the temperate zone; adjusting for temperature reduced the estimates to 1.02 (95% CI: 0.95-1.09) and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.12), respectively. Furthermore, the unadjusted PTR was positively associated with average mean temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that seasonality of mortality is importantly driven by temperature, most evidently in temperate/continental climate zones, and that warmer locations show stronger seasonal variations in mortality, which is related to a stronger effect of temperature.

Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces

Estimates of future climate change impacts using numerical impact models are commonly based on a limited selection of projections of climate and other key drivers. However, the availability of large ensembles of such projections offers an opportunity to estimate impact responses probabilistically. This study demonstrates an approach that combines model-based impact response surfaces (IRSs) with probabilistic projections of climate change and population to estimate the likelihood of exceeding pre-specified thresholds of impact. The changing likelihood of exceeding impact thresholds during the 21st century was estimated for selected indicators in three European case study regions (Iberian Peninsula, Scotland and Hungary), comparing simulations that incorporate adaptation to those without adaptation. The results showed high likelihoods of increases in heat-related human mortality and of yield decreases for some crops, whereas a decrease of NPP was estimated to be exceptionally unlikely. For a water reservoir in a Portuguese catchment, increased likelihoods of severe water scarce conditions were estimated for the current rice cultivation. Switching from rice to other crops with lower irrigation demand changes production risks, allowing for expansion of the irrigated areas but introducing a stronger sensitivity to changes in rainfall. The IRS-based risk assessment shown in this paper is of relevance for policy making by addressing the relative sensitivity of impacts to key climate and socio-economic drivers, and the urgency for action expressed as a time series of the likelihood of crossing critical impact thresholds. It also examines options to respond by incorporating alternative adaptation actions in the analysis framework, which may be useful for exploring the types, choice and timing of adaptation responses.

Gastroesophageal varices evaluation using spleen‐dedicated stiffness measurement by vibration‐controlled transient elastography

Background and Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusions

COVID-19 pandemic modifies temperature and heat-related illness ambulance transport association in Japan: a nationwide observational study

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, several illnesses were reduced. In Japan, heat-related illnesses were reduced by 22% compared to pre-pandemic period. However, it is uncertain as to what has led to this reduction. Here, we model the association of maximum temperature and heat-related illnesses in the 47 Japanese prefectures. We specifically examined how the exposure and lag associations varied before and during the pandemic.

METHODS

We obtained the summer-specific, daily heat-related illness ambulance transport (HIAT), exposure variable (maximum temperature) and covariate data from relevant data sources. We utilized a stratified (pre-pandemic and pandemic), two-stage approach. In each stratified group, we estimated the 1) prefecture-level association using a quasi-Poisson regression coupled with a distributed lag non-linear model, which was 2) pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. The difference between pooled pre-pandemic and pandemic associations was examined across the exposure and the lag dimensions.

RESULTS

A total of 321,655 HIAT cases was recorded in Japan from 2016 to 2020. We found an overall reduction of heat-related risks for HIAT during the pandemic, with a wide range of reduction (10.85 to 57.47%) in the HIAT risk, across exposure levels ranging from 21.69 °C to 36.31 °C. On the contrary, we found an increment in the delayed heat-related risks during the pandemic at Lag 2 (16.33%; 95% CI: 1.00, 33.98%).

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence of the impact of COVID-19, particularly on the possible roles of physical interventions and behavioral changes, in modifying the temperature-health association. These findings would have implications on subsequent policies or heat-related warning strategies in light of ongoing or future pandemics.

Na+-K+-ATPase plays a major role in mediating cutaneous thermal hyperemia achieved by local skin heating to 39°C

Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase is integrally involved in mediating cutaneous vasodilation during an exercise-heat stress, which includes an interactive role with nitric oxide synthase (NOS). Here, we assessed if Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase also contributes to cutaneous thermal hyperemia induced by local skin heating, which is commonly used to assess cutaneous endothelium-dependent vasodilation. Furthermore, we assessed the extent to which NOS contributes to this response. Cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC) was measured continuously at four forearm skin sites in 11 young adults (4 women). After baseline measurement, local skin temperature was increased from 33°C to 39°C to induce cutaneous thermal hyperemia. Once a plateau in CVC was achieved, each skin site was continuously perfused via intradermal microdialysis with either: 1) lactated Ringer solution (control), 2) 6 mM ouabain, a Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase inhibitor, 3) 20 mM l-NAME, a NOS inhibitor, or 4) a combination of both. Relative to the control site, CVC during the plateau phase of cutaneous thermal hyperemia (∼50% max) was reduced by the lone inhibition of Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase (-19 ± 8% max, P = 0.038) and NOS (-32 ± 4% max, P < 0.001), as well as the combined inhibition of both (-37 ± 9% max, P < 0.001). The magnitude of reduction was similar between NOS inhibition alone and combined inhibition (P = 1.000). The administration of both Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase and NOS inhibitors fully abolished the plateau of CVC with values returning to preheating baseline values (P = 0.439). We show that Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase contributes to cutaneous thermal hyperemia during local skin heating to 39°C, and this response is partially mediated by NOS.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Cutaneous thermal hyperemia during local skin heating to 39°C, which is highly dependent on nitric oxide synthase (NOS), is frequently used to assess endothelium-dependent cutaneous vasodilation. We showed that Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase mediates the regulation of cutaneous thermal hyperemia partly via NOS-dependent mechanisms although a component of the Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase modulation of cutaneous thermal hyperemia is NOS independent. Thus, as with NOS, Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase may be important in the regulation of cutaneous endothelial vascular function.

Protective effect of SGL5213, a potent intestinal sodium-glucose cotransporter 1 inhibitor, in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in mice

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic disease. SGL5213, which is minimally absorbed and is restricted to the intestinal tract, is a potent intestinal sodium-glucose cotransporter 1 (SGLT1) inhibitor. In this study, we investigated the protective effect of SGL5213 in a rodent model of NAFLD.

METHODS

Using a rodent model of NAFLD, we compared SGL5213 efficacy with miglitol, which is an α-glucosidase inhibitor. We used a high-fat and high-sucrose diet-induced NAFLD model.

RESULTS

SGL5213 and miglitol improved obesity, liver dysfunction, insulin resistance, and the NAFLD severity. To further investigate the effects of SGL5213, we analyzed the mRNA expression of genes involved in lipid metabolism, inflammation, and liver fibrosis, and cecal pH levels. SGL5213 and miglitol treatment significantly decreased mRNA expression of factors involved in inflammation and liver fibrosis. SGL5213 treatment significantly decreased cecal pH levels, which did not occur with miglitol.

CONCLUSIONS

SGL5213 had a protective effect on the pathogenesis of NAFLD in a rodent model. We considered that inhibiting glucose absorption and increasing glucose content in the gastrointestinal tract with SGL5213 might have contributed to the protective effect in NAFLD. SGL5213 is a promising therapeutic agent for NAFLD with obesity and insulin resistance.

Elobixibat Effectively Relieves Chronic Constipation in Patients with Cancer Regardless of the Amount of Food Intake

BACKGROUND

Constipation is a common, distressing complication in patients with cancer receiving palliative care. Elobixibat is a novel inhibitor of the ileal bile acid transporter that is used to treat chronic constipation by stimulating bowel function. However, its efficacy in patients with cancer has not been examined. This study investigated the drug's effectiveness in patients with cancer with chronic constipation.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This prospective-sampling, single-center, observational study included hospitalized patients with cancer diagnosed, using the Rome IV criteria, with chronic constipation. Within 2 weeks of hospitalization, each participant was administered elobixibat (5-15 mg) daily until discharge. Spontaneous bowel movements (SBMs), complete spontaneous bowel movements (CSBMs), Bristol stool form scale (BSFS) scores, and the Patient Assessment of Constipation Quality of Life questionnaire (PAC-QOL) scores were assessed before and after elobixibat administration. We also evaluated the relationship between the amount of food consumed and the SBM frequency.

RESULTS

Among the 83 participants, the mean pre- and post-treatment frequencies of daily SBMs were 0.3 and 1.2 (p < .0001) and those of CSBMs were 0.1 and 0.6 (p < .0001), respectively. The mean pretreatment BSFS score was 1.6, whereas the post-treatment value was 3.5 (p < .0001); the mean PAC-QOL score (overall) improved from 1.01 to 0.74 (p = .01). There was no significant change in the daily SBM frequency between fasting and feeding states (1.2 vs. 1.3; p = .8), and there was no correlation between the amount of food intake and the SBM frequency after elobixibat administration (r = .03). Serious adverse events were not observed.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that elobixibat is safe and effective for patients with cancer with chronic constipation, regardless of the food intake amount.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Elobixibat was effective at relieving chronic constipation in patients with various cancers. Serious adverse events were not observed, and the relief of constipation was independent of variation in food intake.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

BACKGROUND

Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM_2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM_2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.

METHODS

For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM_2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure was calculated.

FINDINGS

65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m³ increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM_2·5 exposure during the study period.

INTERPRETATION

Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM_2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

BACKGROUND

Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.

METHODS

For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated.

FINDINGS

65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period.

INTERPRETATION

Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Reducing the health effects of hot weather and heat extremes: from personal cooling strategies to green cities

Heat extremes (ie, heatwaves) already have a serious impact on human health, with ageing, poverty, and chronic illnesses as aggravating factors. As the global community seeks to contend with even hotter weather in the future as a consequence of global climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the most effective prevention and response measures that can be implemented, particularly in low-resource settings. In this Series paper, we describe how a future reliance on air conditioning is unsustainable and further marginalises the communities most vulnerable to the heat. We then show that a more holistic understanding of the thermal environment at the landscape and urban, building, and individual scales supports the identification of numerous sustainable opportunities to keep people cooler. We summarise the benefits (eg, effectiveness) and limitations of each identified cooling strategy, and recommend optimal interventions for settings such as aged care homes, slums, workplaces, mass gatherings, refugee camps, and playing sport. The integration of this information into well communicated heat action plans with robust surveillance and monitoring is essential for reducing the adverse health consequences of current and future extreme heat.

Hot weather and heat extremes: health risks

Hot ambient conditions and associated heat stress can increase mortality and morbidity, as well as increase adverse pregnancy outcomes and negatively affect mental health. High heat stress can also reduce physical work capacity and motor-cognitive performances, with consequences for productivity, and increase the risk of occupational health problems. Almost half of the global population and more than 1 billion workers are exposed to high heat episodes and about a third of all exposed workers have negative health effects. However, excess deaths and many heat-related health risks are preventable, with appropriate heat action plans involving behavioural strategies and biophysical solutions. Extreme heat events are becoming permanent features of summer seasons worldwide, causing many excess deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase further as climate change progresses, with greater risk associated with higher degrees of global warming. Particularly in tropical regions, increased warming might mean that physiological limits related to heat tolerance (survival) will be reached regularly and more often in coming decades. Climate change is interacting with other trends, such as population growth and ageing, urbanisation, and socioeconomic development, that can either exacerbate or ameliorate heat-related hazards. Urban temperatures are further enhanced by anthropogenic heat from vehicular transport and heat waste from buildings. Although there is some evidence of adaptation to increasing temperatures in high-income countries, projections of a hotter future suggest that without investment in research and risk management actions, heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase.

Gut microbiota composition associated with hepatic fibrosis in non-obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Gut microbiota composition is associated with the pathogenesis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. However, the association between gut microbiota composition and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in non-obese patients remains unclear. We compared clinical parameters and gut microbiota profiles of healthy controls and non-obese and obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

METHODS

We examined the clinical parameters and gut microbiota profiles by 16S rRNA sequences and short-chain fatty acid levels in fecal samples from 51 non-obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (body mass index <25 kg/m² ) and 51 obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (body mass index ≥30 kg/m² ) who underwent pathological examination and 87 controls at five hospitals in Japan.

RESULTS

Although no significant differences between the non-obese and other groups were observed in alpha diversity, a significant difference was found in beta diversity. We observed a significant decrease in serum alanine aminotransferase levels, Eubacterium population, and butyric acid levels in non-obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease compared with those in obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. A significant negative correlation was found between the stage of hepatic fibrosis and Eubacterium abundance in non-obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The decrease in the abundance of Eubacterium that produces butyric acid may play an important role in the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in non-obese individuals. This study was registered at the University Hospital Medical Information Network clinical trial registration system (UMIN000020917).

The Role of Leaky Gut in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Novel Therapeutic Target

The liver directly accepts blood from the gut and is, therefore, exposed to intestinal bacteria. Recent studies have demonstrated a relationship between gut bacteria and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Approximately 10–20% of NAFLD patients develop nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and endotoxins produced by Gram-negative bacilli may be involved in NAFLD pathogenesis. NAFLD hyperendotoxicemia has intestinal and hepatic factors. The intestinal factors include impaired intestinal barrier function (leaky gut syndrome) and dysbiosis due to increased abundance of ethanol-producing bacteria, which can change endogenous alcohol concentrations. The hepatic factors include hyperleptinemia, which is associated with an excessive response to endotoxins, leading to intrahepatic inflammation and fibrosis. Clinically, the relationship between gut bacteria and NAFLD has been targeted in some randomized controlled trials of probiotics and other agents, but the results have been inconsistent. A recent randomized, placebo-controlled study explored the utility of lubiprostone, a treatment for constipation, in restoring intestinal barrier function and improving the outcomes of NAFLD patients, marking a new phase in the development of novel therapies targeting the intestinal barrier. This review summarizes recent data from studies in animal models and randomized clinical trials on the role of the gut–liver axis in NAFLD pathogenesis and progression.

Role of temperature, influenza and other local characteristics in seasonality of mortality: a population-based time-series study in Japan

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the extent to which temperature and influenza explained seasonality of mortality in Japan and to examine the association of the seasonality with prefecture-specific characteristics.

DESIGN

We conducted time-series analysis to estimate the seasonal amplitude before and after adjusting for temperature and/or influenza-like illness (ILI). Next, we applied linear mixed effect models to investigate the association of seasonal amplitudes with each indicator on prefecture-specific characteristics on climate, demographic and socioeconomic factors and adaptations.

SETTING

47 prefectures in Japan PARTICIPANTS: Deaths for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory disease between 1999 and 2015.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Peak-to-trough ratio (PTR, a measure of seasonal amplitude).

RESULTS

The nationwide unadjusted-PTRs for all-cause, circulatory and respiratory mortality were 1.29 (95% CIs: 1.28 to 1.31), 1.55 (95% CI: 1.52 to 1.57) and 1.45 (95% CI: 1.43 to 1.48), respectively. These PTRs reduced substantially after adjusting for temperature but very little after a separate adjustment for ILI. Furthermore, seasonal amplitudes varied between prefectures. However, there was no strong evidence for the associations of PTR with the indicators on prefecture-specific characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonality of mortality is primarily driven by temperature in Japan. The spatial variation in seasonal amplitudes was not associated with prefecture-specific characteristics. Although further investigations are required to confirm our findings, this study can help us gain a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying seasonality of mortality.

Heat-mortality risk and the population concentration of metropolitan areas in Japan: a nationwide time-series study

BACKGROUND

The complex role of urbanisation in heat-mortality risk has not been fully studied. Japan has experienced a rapid population increase and densification in metropolitan areas since the 2000s; we investigated the effects of population concentration in metropolitan areas on heat-mortality risk using nationwide data.

METHODS

We collected time-series data for mortality and weather variables for all 47 prefectures in Japan (1980-2015). The prefectures were classified into three sub-areas based on population size: lowest (<1 500 000), intermediate (1 500 000 to 3 000 000), and highest (>3 000 000; i.e. metropolitan areas). Regional indicators associated with the population concentration of metropolitan areas were obtained.

RESULTS

Since the 2000s, the population concentration intensified in the metropolitan areas, with the highest heat-mortality risk in prefectures with the highest population. Higher population density and apartment % as well as lower forest area and medical services were associated with higher heat-mortality risk; these associations have generally become stronger since the 2000s.

CONCLUSIONS

Population concentration in metropolitan areas intensified interregional disparities in demography, living environments, and medical services in Japan; these disparities were associated with higher heat-mortality risk. Our results can contribute to policies to reduce vulnerability to high temperatures.

Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015

BACKGROUND

Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate.

METHODS

Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics.

RESULTS

The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50-1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44-1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08-1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08-1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32-1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54-1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82-1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: - 1.24 to 1.48), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division.

FINDINGS

Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe.

INTERPRETATION

Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

MRI-Based Quantitative R2* Mapping at 3 Tesla Reflects Hepatic Iron Overload and Pathogenesis in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Patients

BACKGROUND

The role of hepatic iron overload (HIO) in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) pathogenesis has not been fully elucidated.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the effect of HIO and examine the diagnostic usefulness of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based R2^* quantification in evaluating hepatic iron content (HIC) and pathological findings in NAFLD.

STUDY TYPE

Prospective and retrospective.

POPULATION

A prospective study of 168 patients (age, 57.2 ± 15.0; male/female, 80/88) and a retrospective validation study of 202 patients (age, 57.0 ± 14.4; male/female, 113/89) with liver-biopsy-confirmed NAFLD were performed.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

3 T; chemical-shift encoded multi-echo gradient echo.

ASSESSMENT

Using liver tissues obtained by liver biopsy, HIC was prospectively evaluated in 168 patients by atomic absorption spectrometry. Diagnostic accuracies of HIC and R2^* for grading hepatic inflammation plus ballooning (HIB) as an indicator of NAFLD activity were assessed.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Student's t-test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) with Scheffe's multiple testing correction for univariate comparisons; multivariate logistic analysis. P-value less than 0.05 is statistically significant.

RESULTS

HIC was significantly correlated with HIB grades (r = 0.407). R2^* was significantly correlated with HIC (r = 0.557) and HIB grades (r = 0.569). R2^* mapped an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC; 0.774) for HIC ≥808 ng/mL (median value) with cutoff value of 62.5 s^-1 . In addition, R2^* mapped AUROC of HIB for grades ≥3 was 0.799 with cutoff value of 58.5 s^-1 . When R2^* was <62.5 s^-1 , R2^* correlated weakly with HIC (r = 0.372) as it was affected by fat deposition and did not correlate with HIB grades (P = 0.052). Conversely, when R2^* was ≥62.5 s^-1 , a significant correlation of R2^* with HIC (r = 0.556) and with HIB grades was observed (P < 0.0001) with being less affected by fat deposition.

DATA CONCLUSION

R2^*  ≥ 62.5 s^-1 is a promising modality for non-invasive diagnosis of clinically important high grades (≥3) of HIB associated with increased HIC.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 2.

Cold Spells and Cause-Specific Mortality in 47 Japanese Prefectures: A Systematic Evaluation

BACKGROUND

Many studies have investigated the devastating health effects of heat waves, but less is known about health risks related to cold spells, despite evidence that extreme cold may contribute to a larger proportion of deaths.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically investigate the association between cold spells and mortality in Japan.

METHODS

Daily data for weather conditions and 12 common causes of death during the 1972-2015 cold seasons (November-March) were obtained from 47 Japanese prefectures. Cold spells were defined as ≥2 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures ≤5th percentile for the cold season in each prefecture. Quasi-Poisson regression was combined with a distributed lag model to estimate prefecture-specific associations, and pooled associations at the national level were obtained through random-effects meta-analysis. The potential influence of cold spell characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season) on associations between cold spells and mortality was examined using a similar two-stage approach. Temporal trends were investigated using a meta-regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 18,139,498 deaths were recorded during study period. Mortality was significantly higher during cold spell days vs. other days for all selected causes of death. Mortality due to age-related physical debilitation was more strongly associated with cold spells than with other causes of death. Associations between cold spells and mortality from all causes and several more specific outcomes were stronger for longer and more intense cold spells and for cold spells earlier in the cold season. However, although all outcomes were positively associated with cold spell duration, findings for cold spell intensity and seasonal timing were heterogeneous across the outcomes. Associations between cold spells and mortality due to cerebrovascular disease, cerebral infarction, and age-related physical debility decreased in magnitude over time, whereas temporal trends were relatively flat for all-cause mortality and other outcomes.

DISCUSSION

Our findings may have implications for establishing tailored public health strategies to prevent avoidable cold spell-related health consequences. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7109.