Digital health, cardiometabolic disease and ethnicity: an analysis of United Kingdom government policies from 2010 to 2022

Recent health policies in the United Kingdom (UK) and internationally have focussed on digitisation of healthcare. We examined UK policies for evidence of government action addressing health inequalities and digital health, using cardiometabolic disease as an exemplar. Using a systematic search methodology, we identified 87 relevant policy documents published between 2010 and 2022. We found increasing emphasis on digital health, including for prevention, diagnosis and management of cardiometabolic disease. Several policies also focused on tackling health inequalities and improving digital access. The COVID-19 pandemic amplified inequalities. No policies addressed ethnic inequalities in digital health for cardiometabolic disease, despite high prevalence in minority ethnic communities. Our findings suggest that creating opportunities for digital inclusion and reduce longer-term health inequalities, will require future policies to focus on: the heterogeneity of ethnic groups; cross-sectoral disadvantages which contribute to disease burden and digital accessibility; and disease-specific interventions which lend themselves to culturally tailored solutions.

The association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events by age and frailty: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antihypertensives are effective at reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease, but limited data exist quantifying their association with serious adverse events, particularly in older people with frailty. This study aimed to examine this association using nationally representative electronic health record data.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This was a retrospective cohort study utilising linked data from 1,256 general practices across England held within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1998 and 2018. Included patients were aged 40+ years, with a systolic blood pressure reading between 130 and 179 mm Hg, and not previously prescribed antihypertensive treatment. The main exposure was defined as a first prescription of antihypertensive treatment. The primary outcome was hospitalisation or death within 10 years from falls. Secondary outcomes were hypotension, syncope, fractures, acute kidney injury, electrolyte abnormalities, and primary care attendance with gout. The association between treatment and these serious adverse events was examined by Cox regression adjusted for propensity score. This propensity score was generated from a multivariable logistic regression model with patient characteristics, medical history and medication prescriptions as covariates, and new antihypertensive treatment as the outcome. Subgroup analyses were undertaken by age and frailty. Of 3,834,056 patients followed for a median of 7.1 years, 484,187 (12.6%) were prescribed new antihypertensive treatment in the 12 months before the index date (baseline). Antihypertensives were associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation or death from falls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 to 1.26), hypotension (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.35), syncope (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.22), acute kidney injury (aHR 1.44, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.47), electrolyte abnormalities (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.48), and primary care attendance with gout (aHR 1.35, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.37). The absolute risk of serious adverse events with treatment was very low, with 6 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year. In older patients (80 to 89 years) and those with severe frailty, this absolute risk was increased, with 61 and 84 fall events per 10,000 patients treated per year (respectively). Findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using different approaches to address confounding and taking into account the competing risk of death. A strength of this analysis is that it provides evidence regarding the association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events, in a population of patients more representative than those enrolled in previous randomised controlled trials. Although treatment effect estimates fell within the 95% CIs of those from such trials, these analyses were observational in nature and so bias from unmeasured confounding cannot be ruled out.

CONCLUSIONS

Antihypertensive treatment was associated with serious adverse events. Overall, the absolute risk of this harm was low, with the exception of older patients and those with moderate to severe frailty, where the risks were similar to the likelihood of benefit from treatment. In these populations, physicians may want to consider alternative approaches to management of blood pressure and refrain from prescribing new treatment.

Differences in Treatment Patterns and Outcomes of Acute Myocardial Infarction for Low- and High-Income Patients in 6 Countries

Importance

Differences in the organization and financing of health systems may produce more or less equitable outcomes for advantaged vs disadvantaged populations. We compared treatments and outcomes of older high- and low-income patients across 6 countries.

Objective

To determine whether treatment patterns and outcomes for patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction differ for low- vs high-income individuals across 6 countries.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Serial cross-sectional cohort study of all adults aged 66 years or older hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction from 2013 through 2018 in the US, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Israel using population-representative administrative data.

Exposures

Being in the top and bottom quintile of income within and across countries.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Thirty-day and 1-year mortality; secondary outcomes included rates of cardiac catheterization and revascularization, length of stay, and readmission rates.

Results

We studied 289 376 patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 843 046 hospitalized with non-STEMI (NSTEMI). Adjusted 30-day mortality generally was 1 to 3 percentage points lower for high-income patients. For instance, 30-day mortality among patients admitted with STEMI in the Netherlands was 10.2% for those with high income vs 13.1% for those with low income (difference, -2.8 percentage points [95% CI, -4.1 to -1.5]). One-year mortality differences for STEMI were even larger than 30-day mortality, with the highest difference in Israel (16.2% vs 25.3%; difference, -9.1 percentage points [95% CI, -16.7 to -1.6]). In all countries, rates of cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention were higher among high- vs low-income populations, with absolute differences ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points (eg, 73.6% vs 67.4%; difference, 6.1 percentage points [95% CI, 1.2 to 11.0] for percutaneous intervention in England for STEMI). Rates of coronary artery bypass graft surgery for patients with STEMI in low- vs high-income strata were similar but for NSTEMI were generally 1 to 2 percentage points higher among high-income patients (eg, 12.5% vs 11.0% in the US; difference, 1.5 percentage points [95% CI, 1.3 to 1.8 ]). Thirty-day readmission rates generally also were 1 to 3 percentage points lower and hospital length of stay generally was 0.2 to 0.5 days shorter for high-income patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

High-income individuals had substantially better survival and were more likely to receive lifesaving revascularization and had shorter hospital lengths of stay and fewer readmissions across almost all countries. Our results suggest that income-based disparities were present even in countries with universal health insurance and robust social safety net systems.

Severe COVID-19 outcomes by cardiovascular risk profile in England in 2020: a population-based cohort study

Background

While cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a risk factor for severe COVID-19, the association between predicted cardiovascular risk and severe COVID-19 among people without diagnosed CVD is unclear.

Methods

We carried out historical, population-based cohort studies among adults aged 40-84 years in England using linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Individuals were categorized into: existing CVD, raised cardiovascular risk (defined using QRISK3 score ≥10%) and low risk (QRISK3 score <10%) at 12/03/2020. We described incidence and severe outcomes of COVID-19 (deaths, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions, hospitalisations, major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE]) for each group. Among those with a COVID-19 record to 31/12/2020, we re-classified cardiovascular risk at infection and assessed the risk of severe outcomes using multivariable Cox regression with complete case analysis. We repeated analyses using hypertension to define raised cardiovascular risk.

Findings

Among 6,059,055 individuals, 741,913 (12.2%) had established CVD, 1,929,627 (31.8%) had a QRISK3 score ≥10% and 3,387,515 (55.9%) had a QRISK3 score <10%. Marked gradients were seen in the incidence of all severe COVID-19 outcomes by cardiovascular risk profile. Among those with COVID-19 (N = 146,760), there was a strong association between raised QRISK3 score and death: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8.77 (7.62-10.10), N = 97,725, which remained present, though attenuated in age-stratified results. Risks of other outcomes were also higher among those with raised QRISK3 score: aHR 3.66 (3.18-4.21) for ICU admissions, 3.38 (3.22-3.56) for hospitalisations, 5.43 (4.44-6.64) for MACE. When raised cardiovascular risk was redefined by hypertension status, only the association with MACE remained: aHR 1.49 (1.20-1.85), N = 57,264.

Interpretation

Individuals without pre-existing CVD but with raised cardiovascular risk (by QRISK3 score) were more likely to experience severe COVID-19 outcomes and should be prioritised for prevention and treatment. Addressing cardiovascular risk factors could improve COVID-19 outcomes.

Funding

BMA Foundation for Medical Research/Rosetrees Trust, Wellcome, BHF.

Integrated approach to cardiovascular disease in people experiencing homelessness: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Homelessness is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), beyond impact of socioeconomic status. CVD is preventable and treatable, though barriers to interventions exist for people experiencing homelessness. Those with lived experience of homelessness and health professionals with relevant expertise can help to understand and address these barriers.

OBJECTIVES

To understand, and make recommendations to improve, CVD care in homeless populations through lived and professional expertise.

METHOD

Four focus groups were conducted in March-July 2019. Three groups included people currently or previously experiencing homelessness, each attended by a cardiologist (AB), a health services researcher (PB) and an 'expert by experience' (SB) who coordinated participants. One group included multidisciplinary health and social care professionals in and around London to explore solutions.

PARTICIPANTS

The three groups included 16 men and 9 women, aged 20-60 years, of whom 24 were homeless and currently living in hostels, and 1 rough sleeper. At least 14 discussed sleeping rough at some point.

RESULTS

Participants were aware of CVD risks and relevance of healthy habits but identified barriers to prevention and health access, starting with disorientation affecting planning and self-care, lack of facilities for food, hygiene and exercise, and experiences of discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD care for those experiencing homelessness should account for fundamental problems of the environment, be codesigned with service users and cover key principles: flexibility, public and staff education, integration of support and advocacy for health service rights.

Risk of death following COVID-19 vaccination or positive SARS-CoV-2 test in young people in England

Several studies have reported associations between COVID-19 vaccination and risk of cardiac diseases, especially in young people; the impact on mortality, however, remains unclear. We use national, linked electronic health data in England to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and positive SARS-CoV-2 tests on the risk of cardiac and all-cause mortality in young people (12 to 29 years) using a self-controlled case series design. Here, we show there is no significant increase in cardiac or all-cause mortality in the 12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccination compared to more than 12 weeks after any dose. However, we find an increase in cardiac death in women after a first dose of non mRNA vaccines. A positive SARS-CoV-2 test is associated with increased cardiac and all-cause mortality among people vaccinated or unvaccinated at time of testing.

Network inference from short, noisy, low time-resolution, partial measurements: Application to C. elegans neuronal calcium dynamics

Network link inference from measured time series data of the behavior of dynamically interacting network nodes is an important problem with wide-ranging applications, e.g., estimating synaptic connectivity among neurons from measurements of their calcium fluorescence. Network inference methods typically begin by using the measured time series to assign to any given ordered pair of nodes a numerical score reflecting the likelihood of a directed link between those two nodes. In typical cases, the measured time series data may be subject to limitations, including limited duration, low sampling rate, observational noise, and partial nodal state measurement. However, it is unknown how the performance of link inference techniques on such datasets depends on these experimental limitations of data acquisition. Here, we utilize both synthetic data generated from coupled chaotic systems as well as experimental data obtained from Caenorhabditis elegans neural activity to systematically assess the influence of data limitations on the character of scores reflecting the likelihood of a directed link between a given node pair. We do this for three network inference techniques: Granger causality, transfer entropy, and, a machine learning-based method. Furthermore, we assess the ability of appropriate surrogate data to determine statistical confidence levels associated with the results of link-inference techniques.

COVID-19 vaccination uptake amongst ethnic minority communities in England: a linked study exploring the drivers of differential vaccination rates

BACKGROUND

Despite generally high coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates in the UK, vaccination hesitancy and lower take-up rates have been reported in certain ethnic minority communities.

METHODS

We used vaccination data from the National Immunisation Management System (NIMS) linked to the 2011 Census and individual health records for subjects aged ≥40 years (n = 24 094 186). We estimated age-standardized vaccination rates, stratified by ethnic group and key sociodemographic characteristics, such as religious affiliation, deprivation, educational attainment, geography, living conditions, country of birth, language skills and health status. To understand the association of ethnicity with lower vaccination rates, we conducted a logistic regression model adjusting for differences in geographic, sociodemographic and health characteristics. ResultsAll ethnic groups had lower age-standardized rates of vaccination compared with the white British population, whose vaccination rate of at least one dose was 94% (95% CI: 94%-94%). Black communities had the lowest rates, with 75% (74-75%) of black African and 66% (66-67%) of black Caribbean individuals having received at least one dose. The drivers of these lower rates were partly explained by accounting for sociodemographic differences. However, modelled estimates showed significant differences remained for all minority ethnic groups, compared with white British individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower COVID-19 vaccination rates are consistently observed amongst all ethnic minorities.

Oral Class I and III antiarrhythmic drugs for maintaining sinus rhythm after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmias (ATa) following catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common problem. Antiarrhythmic drugs have been used shortly after ablation in an attempt to maintain sinus rhythm, particularly Class I and III agents. However, it still needs to be established if the use of Class I or III antiarrhythmic medications, or both, reduce the risk of recurrence of ATa.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of oral Class I and III antiarrhythmic drugs versus control (standard medical therapy without Class I or III antiarrhythmics, or placebo) for maintaining sinus rhythm in people undergoing catheter ablation for AF.

SEARCH METHODS

We systematically searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, and two clinical trial registers without restrictions on language or date to 5 August 2022.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We sought published, unpublished, and ongoing parallel-design, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving adult participants undergoing ablation for AF, with subsequent comparison of Class I and/or III antiarrhythmic use versus control (standard medical therapy or non-Class I and/or III antiarrhythmic use).

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and performed meta-analyses with risk ratios (RR) and Peto odds ratios (Peto OR). Our primary outcomes were recurrence of atrial tachyarrhythmias; adverse events: thromboembolic events; adverse events: myocardial infarction; adverse events: new diagnosis of heart failure; and adverse events: requirement for one or more hospitalisations for atrial tachyarrhythmia. Our secondary outcomes were: all-cause mortality; and requirement for one or more repeat ablations. Where possible, we performed comparison analysis by Class I and/or III antiarrhythmic and divided follow-up periods for our primary outcome. We performed comprehensive assessments of risk of bias and certainty of evidence applying the GRADE methodology.

MAIN RESULTS

We included nine RCTs involving a total of 3269 participants. Participants were on average 59.3 years old; 71.0% were male; and 72.9% and 27.4% had paroxysmal and persistent AF, respectively. Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics may reduce recurrence of ATa at 0 to 3 months postablation (risk ratio (RR) 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59 to 0.94, 8 trials, 3046 participants, low-certainty evidence) and likely reduce recurrence at > 3 to 6 months, our a priori primary time point (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.93, 5 trials, 2591 participants, moderate-certainty evidence). Beyond six months the evidence is very uncertain, and the benefit of antiarrhythmics may not persist (RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.55, 4 trials, 2244 participants, very low-certainty evidence). The evidence suggests that Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics may not increase the risk of thromboembolic events, myocardial infarction, all-cause mortality, or requirement for repeat ablation, at 0 to 3, > 3 to 6, and > 6 months (where data were available; low- to very low-certainty evidence). The use of Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics postablation likely reduces hospitalisations for ATa by approximately 57% at 0 to 3 months (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.64, moderate-certainty evidence). No data were available beyond three months. No data were available on new diagnoses of heart failure. Fewer data were available for Class I and III antiarrhythmics individually. Based on only one and two trials (n = 125 to 309), Class I antiarrhythmics may have little effect on recurrence of ATa at 0 to 3, > 3 to 6, and > 6 months (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.20, 2 trials, 309 participants; RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.25 to 1.19, 1 trial, 125 participants; RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.32, 1 trial, 125 participants; low-certainty evidence throughout); requirement for hospitalisation for ATa at 0 to 3 months (low-certainty evidence); or requirement for repeat ablation at 0 to 3 months (low-certainty evidence). No data were available for thromboembolic events, myocardial infarction, new diagnosis of heart failure, or all-cause mortality at any time points, or hospitalisation or repeat ablation beyond three months. Class III antiarrhythmics may have little effect on recurrence of ATa at up to 3 months and at > 3 to 6 months (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.16, 4 trials, 599 participants, low-certainty evidence; RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.09, 2 trials, 318 participants, low-certainty evidence), and beyond 6 months one trial reported a possible increase in recurrence of ATa (RR 1.95, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.94, 1 trial, 112 participants, low-certainty evidence). Class III antiarrhythmics likely reduce hospitalisations for ATa at 0 to 3 months (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.63, moderate-certainty evidence), and may have little effect on all-cause mortality (low- to very low-certainty evidence). The effect of Class III antiarrhythmics on thromboembolic events and requirement for repeat ablation was uncertain (very low-certainty evidence for both outcomes). No data were available for myocardial infarction or new diagnosis of heart failure at any time point, outcomes other than recurrence beyond 6 months, or for hospitalisation and repeat ablation > 3 to 6 months. We assessed the majority of included trials as at low or unclear risk of bias. One trial reported an error in the randomisation process, raising the potential risk of selection bias; most of the included trials were non-blinded; and two trials were at high risk of attrition bias.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence to suggest that the use of Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics up to 3 months after ablation is associated with a reduced recurrence of ATa 0 to 6 months after ablation, which may not persist beyond 6 months, and an immediate reduction in hospitalisation for ATa 0 to 3 months after ablation. The evidence suggests there is no difference in rates of all-cause mortality, thromboembolic events, or myocardial infarction between Class I and/or III antiarrhythmics versus control.

Performance of digital early warning score (NEWS2) in a cardiac specialist setting: retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are at significant risk of developing critical events. Early warning scores (EWS) are recommended for early recognition of deteriorating patients, yet their performance has been poorly studied in cardiac care settings. Standardisation and integrated National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in electronic health records (EHRs) are recommended yet have not been evaluated in specialist settings.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the performance of digital NEWS2 in predicting critical events: death, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, cardiac arrest and medical emergencies.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort analysis.

STUDY COHORT

Individuals admitted with CVD diagnoses in 2020; including patients with COVID-19 due to conducting the study during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MEASURES

We tested the ability of NEWS2 in predicting the three critical outcomes from admission and within 24 hours before the event. NEWS2 was supplemented with age and cardiac rhythm and investigated. We used logistic regression analysis with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to measure discrimination.

RESULTS

In 6143 patients admitted under cardiac specialties, NEWS2 showed moderate to low predictive accuracy of traditionally examined outcomes: death, ICU admission, cardiac arrest and medical emergency (AUC: 0.63, 0.56, 0.70 and 0.63, respectively). Supplemented NEWS2 with age showed no improvement while age and cardiac rhythm improved discrimination (AUC: 0.75, 0.84, 0.95 and 0.94, respectively). Improved performance was found of NEWS2 with age for COVID-19 cases (AUC: 0.96, 0.70, 0.87 and 0.88, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The performance of NEWS2 in patients with CVD is suboptimal, and fair for patients with CVD with COVID-19 to predict deterioration. Adjustment with variables that strongly correlate with critical cardiovascular outcomes, that is, cardiac rhythm, can improve the model. There is a need to define critical endpoints, engagement with clinical experts in development and further validation and implementation studies of EHR-integrated EWS in cardiac specialist settings.

Prevalence, outcomes and costs of a contemporary, multinational population with heart failure

OBJECTIVE

Digital healthcare systems could provide insights into the global prevalence of heart failure (HF). We designed the CardioRenal and Metabolic disease (CaReMe) HF study to estimate the prevalence, key clinical adverse outcomes and costs of HF across 11 countries.

METHODS

Individual level data from a contemporary cohort of 6 29 624 patients with diagnosed HF was obtained from digital healthcare systems in participating countries using a prespecified, common study plan, and summarised using a random effects meta-analysis. A broad definition of HF (any registered HF diagnosis) and a strict definition (history of hospitalisation for HF) were used. Event rates were reported per 100 patient years. Cumulative hospital care costs per patient were calculated for a period of up to 5 years.

RESULTS

The prevalence of HF was 2.01% (95% CI 1.65 to 2.36) and 1.05% (0.85 to 1.25) according to the broad and strict definitions, respectively. In patients with HF (broad definition), mean age was 75.2 years (95% CI 74.0 to 76.4), 48.8% (40.9-56.8%) had ischaemic heart disease and 34.5% (29.4-39.6%) had diabetes. In 51 442 patients with a recorded ejection fraction (EF), 39.1% (30.3-47.8%) had a reduced, 18.8% (13.5-24.0%) had a mildly reduced and 42.1% (31.5-52.8%) had a preserved left ventricular EF. In 1 69 518 patients with recorded estimated glomerular filtration rate, 49% had chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages III-V. Event rates were highest for cardiorenal disease (HF or CKD) and all cause mortality (19.3 (95% CI 11.3 to 27.1) and 13.1 (11.1 to 15.1), respectively), and lower for myocardial infarction, stroke and peripheral artery disease. Hospital care costs were highest for cardiorenal diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimate that 1-2% of the contemporary adult population has HF. These individuals are at significant risk of adverse outcomes and associated costs, predominantly driven by hospitalisations for HF or CKD. There is considerable public health potential in understanding the contemporary burden of HF and the importance of optimising its management.

Local and Nonlocal Transport Spectroscopy in Planar Josephson Junctions

We report simultaneously acquired local and nonlocal transport spectroscopy in a phase-biased planar Josephson junction based on an epitaxial InAs-Al hybrid two-dimensional heterostructure. Quantum point contacts at the junction ends allow measurement of the 2×2 matrix of local and nonlocal tunneling conductances as a function of magnetic field along the junction, phase difference across the junction, and carrier density. A closing and reopening of a gap was observed in both the local and nonlocal tunneling spectra as a function of magnetic field. For particular tunings of junction density, gap reopenings were accompanied by zero-bias conductance peaks (ZBCPs) in local conductances. End-to-end correlation of gap reopening was strong, while correlation of local ZBCPs was weak. A model of the device, with disorder treated phenomenologically, shows comparable conductance matrix behavior associated with a topological phase transition. Phase dependence helps distinguish possible origins of the ZBCPs.

Multi-organ impairment and long COVID: a 1-year prospective, longitudinal cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the prevalence of organ impairment in long COVID patients at 6 and 12 months after initial symptoms and to explore links to clinical presentation.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals.

METHODS

In individuals recovered from acute COVID-19, we assessed symptoms, health status, and multi-organ tissue characterisation and function.

SETTING

Two non-acute healthcare settings (Oxford and London). Physiological and biochemical investigations were performed at baseline on all individuals, and those with organ impairment were reassessed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome was prevalence of single- and multi-organ impairment at 6 and 12 months post COVID-19.

RESULTS

A total of 536 individuals (mean age 45 years, 73% female, 89% white, 32% healthcare workers, 13% acute COVID-19 hospitalisation) completed baseline assessment (median: 6 months post COVID-19); 331 (62%) with organ impairment or incidental findings had follow-up, with reduced symptom burden from baseline (median number of symptoms 10 and 3, at 6 and 12 months, respectively). Extreme breathlessness (38% and 30%), cognitive dysfunction (48% and 38%) and poor health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L < 0.7; 57% and 45%) were common at 6 and 12 months, and associated with female gender, younger age and single-organ impairment. Single- and multi-organ impairment were present in 69% and 23% at baseline, persisting in 59% and 27% at follow-up, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Organ impairment persisted in 59% of 331 individuals followed up at 1 year post COVID-19, with implications for symptoms, quality of life and longer-term health, signalling the need for prevention and integrated care of long COVID.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04369807.

Identifying subtypes of chronic kidney disease with machine learning: development, internal validation and prognostic validation using linked electronic health records in 350,067 individuals

BACKGROUND

Although chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with high multimorbidity, polypharmacy, morbidity and mortality, existing classification systems (mild to severe, usually based on estimated glomerular filtration rate, proteinuria or urine albumin-creatinine ratio) and risk prediction models largely ignore the complexity of CKD, its risk factors and its outcomes. Improved subtype definition could improve prediction of outcomes and inform effective interventions.

METHODS

We analysed individuals ≥18 years with incident and prevalent CKD (n = 350,067 and 195,422 respectively) from a population-based electronic health record resource (2006-2020; Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD). We included factors (n = 264 with 2670 derived variables), e.g. demography, history, examination, blood laboratory values and medications. Using a published framework, we identified subtypes through seven unsupervised machine learning (ML) methods (K-means, Diana, HC, Fanny, PAM, Clara, Model-based) with 66 (of 2670) variables in each dataset. We evaluated subtypes for: (i) internal validity (within dataset, across methods); (ii) prognostic validity (predictive accuracy for 5-year all-cause mortality and admissions); and (iii) medications (new and existing by British National Formulary chapter).

FINDINGS

After identifying five clusters across seven approaches, we labelled CKD subtypes: 1. Early-onset, 2. Late-onset, 3. Cancer, 4. Metabolic, and 5. Cardiometabolic. Internal validity: We trained a high performing model (using XGBoost) that could predict disease subtypes with 95% accuracy for incident and prevalent CKD (Sensitivity: 0.81-0.98, F1 score:0.84-0.97). Prognostic validity: 5-year all-cause mortality, hospital admissions, and incidence of new chronic diseases differed across CKD subtypes. The 5-year risk of mortality and admissions in the overall incident CKD population were highest in cardiometabolic subtype: 43.3% (42.3-42.8%) and 29.5% (29.1-30.0%), respectively, and lowest in the early-onset subtype: 5.7% (5.5-5.9%) and 18.7% (18.4-19.1%).

MEDICATIONS

Across CKD subtypes, the distribution of prescription medication classes at baseline varied, with highest medication burden in cardiometabolic and metabolic subtypes, and higher burden in prevalent than incident CKD.

INTERPRETATION

In the largest CKD study using ML, to-date, we identified five distinct subtypes in individuals with incident and prevalent CKD. These subtypes have relevance to study of aetiology, therapeutics and risk prediction.

FUNDING

AstraZeneca UK Ltd, Health Data Research UK.

Implementation of a digital early warning score (NEWS2) in a cardiac specialist and general hospital settings in the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate implementation of digital National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in a cardiac care setting and a general hospital setting in the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

Thematic analysis of qualitative semistructured interviews using the non-adoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread, sustainability framework with purposefully sampled nurses and managers, as well as online surveys from March to December 2021.

SETTINGS

Specialist cardiac hospital (St Bartholomew's Hospital) and general teaching hospital (University College London Hospital, UCLH).

PARTICIPANTS

Eleven nurses and managers from cardiology, cardiac surgery, oncology and intensive care wards (St Bartholomew's) and medical, haematology and intensive care wards (UCLH) were interviewed and 67 were surveyed online.

RESULTS

Three main themes emerged: (1) implementing NEWS2 challenges and supports; (2) value of NEWS2 to alarm, escalate and during the pandemic; and (3) digitalisation: electronic health record (EHR) integration and automation. The value of NEWS2 was partly positive in escalation, yet there were concerns by nurses who undervalued NEWS2 particularly in cardiac care. Challenges, like clinicians' behaviours, lack of resources and training and the perception of NEWS2 value, limit the success of this implementation. Changes in guidelines in the pandemic have led to overlooking NEWS2. EHR integration and automated monitoring are improvement solutions that are not fully employed yet.

CONCLUSION

Whether in specialist or general medical settings, the health professionals implementing early warning score in healthcare face cultural and system-related challenges to adopting NEWS2 and digital solutions. The validity of NEWS2 in specialised settings and complex conditions is not yet apparent and requires comprehensive validation. EHR integration and automation are powerful tools to facilitate NEWS2 if its principles are reviewed and rectified, and resources and training are accessible. Further examination of implementation from the cultural and automation domains is needed.

Morphology of human fetal enteric neurons: A comparative study of different segments of the colon

OBJECTIVES

The Enteric Nervous System (ENS) present in the wall of the gut is currently being explored because of its influence on the gut and beyond. In this context, the morphology of developing ENS has not been completely understood in humans due to lack of adequate literature. The aim of the present study was to observe the morphology of the enteric neurons in the human fetal colon and compare the findings in ascending colon a midgut derivative and descending colon a hindgut derivative at various weeks of gestation (WG).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Tissue samples from 15 aborted fetuses (11 WG to 2 months postnatal) were processed for Cresyl violet, H & E staining, and NADPH Diaphorase histochemistry. The morphometric analysis was done by calculating the neuronal number density and neuronal fractional area. The Student t-test; Mann-Whitney test and Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used to analyze the data.

RESULTS

The muscularis externa with two distinct layers was visible as early as 13 WG and the muscularis mucosae was first observed at 18 WG. The size of the myenteric neurons appeared to be larger with increasing weeks of gestation suggesting a process of neuronal maturation. The neuronal number density and neuronal fractional area seemed to be reduced with advancing fetal age. There was no marked difference between the ascending and sigmoid colon. At 23 and 26 WG, a mature pattern of nitrergic innervation was observed.

CONCLUSION

This study is done on human fetal tissue samples unlike previous studies on animal samples to comprehend the morphology of developing ENS. It will aid in understanding the effect of ENS on various neurological disorders.

Development and validation of a multivariable risk factor questionnaire to detect oesophageal cancer in 2-week wait patients

INTRODUCTION

Oesophageal cancer is associated with poor health outcomes. Upper GI (UGI) endoscopy is the gold standard for diagnosis but is associated with patient discomfort and low yield for cancer. We used a machine learning approach to create a model which predicted oesophageal cancer based on questionnaire responses.

METHODS

We used data from 2 separate prospective cross-sectional studies: the Saliva to Predict rIsk of disease using Transcriptomics and epigenetics (SPIT) study and predicting RIsk of diSease using detailed Questionnaires (RISQ) study. We recruited patients from National Health Service (NHS) suspected cancer pathways as well as patients with known cancer. We identified patient characteristics and questionnaire responses which were most associated with the development of oesophageal cancer. Using the SPIT dataset, we trained seven different machine learning models, selecting the best area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) to create our final model. We further applied a cost function to maximise cancer detection. We then independently validated the model using the RISQ dataset.

RESULTS

807 patients were included in model training and testing, split in a 70:30 ratio. 294 patients were included in model validation. The best model during training was regularised logistic regression using 17 features (median AUC: 0.81, interquartile range (IQR): 0.69-0.85). For testing and validation datasets, the model achieved an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.61-0.81) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.96) respectively. At a set cut off, our model achieved a sensitivity of 97.6% and specificity of 59.1%. We additionally piloted the model in 12 patients with gastric cancer; 9/12 (75%) of patients were correctly classified.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and validated a risk stratification tool using a questionnaire approach. This could aid prioritising patients at high risk of having oesophageal cancer for endoscopy. Our tool could help address endoscopic backlogs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

STIMULATE-ICP: A pragmatic, multi-centre, cluster randomised trial of an integrated care pathway with a nested, Phase III, open label, adaptive platform randomised drug trial in individuals with Long COVID: A structured protocol

INTRODUCTION

Long COVID (LC), the persistent symptoms ≥12 weeks following acute COVID-19, presents major threats to individual and public health across countries, affecting over 1.5 million people in the UK alone. Evidence-based interventions are urgently required and an integrated care pathway approach in pragmatic trials, which include investigations, treatments and rehabilitation for LC, could provide scalable and generalisable solutions at pace.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a pragmatic, multi-centre, cluster-randomised clinical trial of two components of an integrated care pathway (Coverscan™, a multi-organ MRI, and Living with COVID Recovery™, a digitally enabled rehabilitation platform) with a nested, Phase III, open label, platform randomised drug trial in individuals with LC. Cluster randomisation is at level of primary care networks so that integrated care pathway interventions are delivered as "standard of care" in that area. The drug trial randomisation is at individual level and initial arms are rivaroxaban, colchicine, famotidine/loratadine, compared with no drugs, with potential to add in further drug arms. The trial is being carried out in 6-10 LC clinics in the UK and is evaluating the effectiveness of a pathway of care for adults with LC in reducing fatigue and other physical, psychological and functional outcomes at 3 months. The trial also includes an economic evaluation which will be described separately.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol was reviewed by South Central-Berkshire Research Ethics Committee (reference: 21/SC/0416). All participating sites obtained local approvals prior to recruitment. Coverscan™ has UK certification (UKCA 752965). All participants will provide written consent to take part in the trial. The first participant was recruited in July 2022 and interim/final results will be disseminated in 2023, in a plan co-developed with public and patient representatives. The results will be presented at national and international conferences, published in peer reviewed medical journals, and shared via media (mainstream and social) and patient support organisations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN10665760.

Primary prevention of acute cardiovascular events by influenza vaccination: an observational study

AIMS

Previous studies show a reduced incidence of first myocardial infarction and stroke 1-3 months after influenza vaccination, but it is unclear how underlying cardiovascular risk impacts the association.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care and Office for National Statistics mortality data from England between 1 September 2008 and 31 August 2019. From the data, individuals aged 40-84 years with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccination occurring within 12 months of each September were selected. Using a self-controlled case series analysis, season-adjusted cardiovascular risk stratified incidence ratios (IRs) for cardiovascular events after vaccination compared with baseline time before and >120 days after vaccination were generated. 193 900 individuals with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccine were included. 105 539 had hypertension and 172 050 had a QRISK2 score ≥10%. In main analysis, acute cardiovascular event risk was reduced in the 15-28 days after vaccination [IR 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.74)] and, while the effect size tapered, remained reduced to 91-120 days after vaccination [0.83 (0.81-0.88)]. Reduced cardiovascular events were seen after vaccination among individuals of all age groups and with raised and low cardiovascular risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccine may offer cardiovascular benefit among individuals at varying cardiovascular risk. Further studies are needed to characterize the populations who could derive the most cardiovascular benefits from vaccination.

Minimum intervention oral care management of early childhood caries: a 17-year follow-up case report

BACKGROUND

Early childhood caries (ECC) has a profound impact on a child's quality of life, and its management remains a challenge for the paediatric dentist, mainly because it depends on radical changes in the child/carers' daily behaviour and any dental treatment must be provided to very young child.

CASE REPORT

This case report describes the on-going care of a 2-year-old child presenting with ECC and management until permanent dentition is complete. All patient-focused, teamdelivered care was delivered using the minimum intervention oral care framework, implementing non-invasive and minimally invasive preventive procedures. Throughout the care provided, oral and dental health education was reinforced in all visits. The child's mother was trained to perform effective biofilm control and dietary habits were adjusted, especially baby-bottle removal during sleep. The child was initially anxious and resistant towards any dental examination and clinical procedures. However, with effort from the oral healthcare team members, the patient became compliant, allowing the mother to perform suitable oral hygiene measures, as well as accepting the clinical procedures carried out by the paediatric dentist. The clinical procedures consisted of atraumatic restorations and fluoride varnish applications. During the subsequent years after the baseline treatment, follow-up visits included continued dietary and oral hygiene instruction with positive behavior reinforcement, fluoride topical applications and tooth-restoration complex maintenance with glass-ionomer cement where needed. Currently, the patient is 19 years old and has a stable, healthy permanent dentition.

CONCLUSION

Understanding of the causes of oral diseases by the patients' caregivers, alongside with pragmatic practical guidance to maintain good oral health, can reduce the risk for acquiring future disease, since caries activity control is the basis for successful caries management.

Early Release Science of the exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRSpec PRISM

Transmission spectroscopy1-3 of exoplanets has revealed signatures of water vapour, aerosols and alkali metals in a few dozen exoplanet atmospheres4,5. However, these previous inferences with the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes were hindered by the observations' relatively narrow wavelength range and spectral resolving power, which precluded the unambiguous identification of other chemical species-in particular the primary carbon-bearing molecules6,7. Here we report a broad-wavelength 0.5-5.5 µm atmospheric transmission spectrum of WASP-39b8, a 1,200 K, roughly Saturn-mass, Jupiter-radius exoplanet, measured with the JWST NIRSpec's PRISM mode9 as part of the JWST Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science Team Program10-12. We robustly detect several chemical species at high significance, including Na (19σ), H2O (33σ), CO2 (28σ) and CO (7σ). The non-detection of CH4, combined with a strong CO2 feature, favours atmospheric models with a super-solar atmospheric metallicity. An unanticipated absorption feature at 4 µm is best explained by SO2 (2.7σ), which could be a tracer of atmospheric photochemistry. These observations demonstrate JWST's sensitivity to a rich diversity of exoplanet compositions and chemical processes.

Cardiac abnormalities in Long COVID 1-year post-SARS-CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

Long COVID is associated with multiple symptoms and impairment in multiple organs. Cross-sectional studies have reported cardiac impairment to varying degrees by varying methodologies. Using cardiac MR (CMR), we investigated a 12-month trajectory of abnormalities in Long COVID.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate cardiac abnormalities 1-year post-SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

534 individuals with Long COVID underwent CMR (T1/T2 mapping, cardiac mass, volumes, function and strain) and multiorgan MRI at 6 months (IQR 4.3-7.3) since first post-COVID-19 symptoms. 330 were rescanned at 12.6 (IQR 11.4-14.2) months if abnormal baseline findings were reported. Symptoms, questionnaires and blood samples were collected at both time points. CMR abnormalities were defined as ≥1 of low left or right ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), high left or right ventricular end diastolic volume, low 3D left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS), or elevated native T1 in ≥3 cardiac segments. Significant change over time was reported by comparison with 92 healthy controls.

RESULTS

Technical success of multiorgan and CMR assessment in non-acute settings was 99.1% and 99.6% at baseline, and 98.3% and 98.8% at follow-up. Of individuals with Long COVID, 102/534 (19%) had CMR abnormalities at baseline; 71/102 had complete paired data at 12 months. Of those, 58% presented with ongoing CMR abnormalities at 12 months. High sensitivity cardiac troponin I and B-type natriuretic peptide were not predictive of CMR findings, symptoms or clinical outcomes. At baseline, low LVEF was associated with persistent CMR abnormality, abnormal GLS associated with low quality of life and abnormal T1 in at least three segments was associated with better clinical outcomes at 12 months.

CONCLUSION

CMR abnormalities (left entricular or right ventricular dysfunction/dilatation and/or abnormal T1mapping), occurred in one in five individuals with Long COVID at 6 months, persisting in over half of those at 12 months. Cardiac-related blood biomarkers could not identify CMR abnormalities in Long COVID.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04369807.