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Quain A, Mullan S, McGreevy PD, Ward MP. Frequency, Stressfulness and Type of Ethically Challenging Situations Encountered by Veterinary Team Members During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Front Vet Sci 2021; 8:647108. [PMID: 33912607 PMCID: PMC8071942 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.647108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2020] [Accepted: 03/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Ethically challenging situations (ECS) are common in veterinary settings and can lead to moral stress. However, there is no published information about how a global pandemic affects the frequency and types of ECS encountered by veterinary team members. An online mixed methods survey was developed to determine the frequency, stressfulness and types of ECS experienced by veterinarians, animal health technicians and veterinary nurses since the advent of the global COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Responses from 540 veterinary team members from 22 countries were analyzed. With the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, the median frequency of ECS encountered by respondents increased from several times per month to several times per week (Spearman Rank Correlation 0.619, P < 0.0001). The most common ECS (encountered at least several times per week) were: challenging decisions about how to proceed when clients have limited finances (64.4%), conflict between personal well-being and professional role (64.3%), conflict between the interests of clients and the interests of their animals (59.6%). These were followed by challenging decisions about what counts as an essential veterinary service (48.1%); conflict between well-being of family/household members and professional role (46.3%); and challenging decisions about whether to perform non-contact veterinary visits (46.3%). The most stressful ECS (reported to be very or maximally stressful) were: conflicts between the interests of clients and the interests of their animals (50.2%), other (42.9%), conflicts between the interests of my employer and my own interests (42.5%), challenging decisions about how to proceed when clients have limited finances (39.4%), conflict between personal well-being and professional role (38.0%), and conflict between well-being of family/household members and professional role (33.6%). Thematic analysis of free-text responses revealed biosecurity, client financial limitations, animal welfare, working conditions, and client relations as prominent themes. This is, to the best of our knowledge, the first study to describe the impacts of the pandemic on ECS experienced by veterinary teams globally. It identifies an increase in the frequency of ECS associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of stressors unique to the pandemic. We identified a number of resources and strategies that may help veterinary team members navigate ethical challenges that may emerge in their daily work, as well as in the context of global crises.
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Islam SS, Rumi TB, Kabir SML, Rahman AKMA, Faisal MMH, Islam R, van der Zanden AGM, Ward MP, Ross AG, Rahim Z. Zoonotic tuberculosis knowledge and practices among cattle handlers in selected districts of Bangladesh. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009394. [PMID: 33930015 PMCID: PMC8115789 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009394] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2021] [Revised: 05/12/2021] [Accepted: 04/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
We assessed zoonotic tuberculosis (zTB) knowledge and prevention and control practices of 404 cattle handlers via a survey in three dairy-intensive districts of Bangladesh. Most respondents were aged 30-49 (52%) and male (95%). Almost all (99%) recognized the important public health burden of tuberculosis in Bangladesh, however, most (58%) had inadequate knowledge about zTB transmission to humans. Inappropriate practices such as: not using protective equipment (98%); smoking, drinking or eating food whilst working with cattle (69%); and sharing the same premises with animals (83%) were identified. Cattle handlers educated at secondary or higher levels were 2.82- (95% CI: 1.59-5.10) and 5.15 times (95% CI: 1.74-15.20) more likely to have adequate knowledge of control and prevention activities compared to those with no formal education. Those who had reared animals for 1-5 years were 2.67 times (95% CI: 1.44-4.91) more likely to have adequate knowledge, compared to those who reared animals for >15 years. Cattle handlers with a monthly incomes of 10,000-20,000 taka were significantly (Odds Ratio = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.14-0.92) less likely to have adequate knowledge compared to those with monthly incomes <10,000 taka. Cattle handlers with high school or higher education were 6.98 times (95% CI: 2.47-19.71) more likely to use appropriate zTB control and prevention practices compared to those without formal education. Those who had reared animals for 1-5 years, 6-10 years and 11-15 years were 2.72- (95% CI: 1.42-5.24), 2.49- (95% CI: 1.29-4.77) and 2.86 times (95% CI: 1.13-7.23) more likely to apply appropriate practices compared to those who reared animals for >15 years. Overall, education, duration of cattle rearing and monthly income predicted zTB knowledge and practices. There is an urgent need to educate those at high-risk of zTB transmission on issues including the handling of infected animals, and general hygiene. A One Health approach, to support the Sustainable Development Goals and the End TB strategy, appears to be the way forward.
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Ward MP, Brookes VJ. Rabies in Our Neighbourhood: Preparedness for an Emerging Infectious Disease. Pathogens 2021; 10:375. [PMID: 33804778 PMCID: PMC8003993 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens10030375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2021] [Revised: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 03/19/2021] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Emerging infectious disease (EID) events have the potential to cause devastating impacts on human, animal and environmental health. A range of tools exist which can be applied to address EID event detection, preparedness and response. Here we use a case study of rabies in Southeast Asia and Oceania to illustrate, via nearly a decade of research activities, how such tools can be systematically integrated into a framework for EID preparedness. During the past three decades, canine rabies has spread to previously free areas of Southeast Asia, threatening the rabies-free status of countries such as Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Australia. The program of research to address rabies preparedness in the Oceanic region has included scanning and surveillance to define the emerging nature of canine rabies within the Southeast Asia region; field studies to collect information on potential reservoir species, their distribution and behaviour; participatory and sociological studies to identify priorities for disease response; and targeted risk assessment and disease modelling studies. Lessons learnt include the need to develop methods to collect data in remote regions, and the need to continuously evaluate and update requirements for preparedness in response to evolving drivers of emerging infectious disease.
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Singh BB, Ward MP, Dhand NK. Geodemography, environment and societal characteristics drive the global diversity of emerging, zoonotic and human pathogens. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:1131-1143. [PMID: 33724682 PMCID: PMC8251457 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2020] [Revised: 03/10/2021] [Accepted: 03/12/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Understanding human disease, zoonoses and emergence is a global priority. A deep understanding of pathogen ecology and the complex inherent relationships at the agent–environment interface are essential to inform disease control and mitigation and to predict the next zoonotic pandemic. Here, we present the first analysis of social and environmental factors associated with human, zoonotic and emerging pathogen diversity at a global scale, controlling for research effort. Predictor–response associations were captured by generalized additive models. We used national level data to aid in policy development to inform control and mitigation. We show that human population density, land area, temperature and the human development index at the country level are associated with human, emerging and zoonotic pathogen diversity. Multiple models demonstrating society–agent–environment interactions demonstrate that social, environmental and geographical factors predict global pathogen diversity. The analyses demonstrate that weather variables (temperature and rainfall) have the potential to influence pathogen diversity.
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Kjaer LJ, Hjulsager CK, Larsen LE, Boklund AE, Halasa T, Ward MP, Kirkeby CT. Landscape effects and spatial patterns of avian influenza virus in Danish wild birds, 2006-2020. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:706-719. [PMID: 33600073 PMCID: PMC9291307 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2020] [Revised: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 02/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Avian influenza (AI) is a contagious disease of birds with zoonotic potential. AI virus (AIV) can infect most bird species, but clinical signs and mortality vary. Assessing the distribution and factors affecting AI presence can direct targeted surveillance to areas at risk of disease outbreaks, or help identify disease hotspots or areas with inadequate surveillance. Using virus surveillance data from passive and active AIV wild bird surveillance, 2006−2020, we investigated the association between the presence of AIV and a range of landscape factors and game bird release. Furthermore, we assessed potential bias in the passive AIV surveillance data submitted by the public, via factors related to public accessibility. Lastly, we tested the AIV data for possible hot‐ and cold spots within Denmark. The passive surveillance data was biased regarding accessibility to areas (distance to roads, cities and coast) compared to random locations within Denmark. For both the passive and active AIV surveillance data, we found significant (p < .01) associations with variables related to coast, wetlands and cities, but not game bird release. We used these variables to predict the risk of AIV presence throughout Denmark, and found high‐risk areas concentrated along the coast and fjords. For both passive and active surveillance data, low‐risk clusters were mainly seen in Jutland and northern Zealand, whereas high‐risk clusters were found in Jutland, Zealand, Funen and the southern Isles such as Lolland and Falster. Our results suggest that landscape affects AIV presence, as coastal areas and wetlands attract waterfowl and migrating birds and therefore might increase the potential for AIV transmission. Our findings have enabled us to create risk maps of AIV presence in wild birds and pinpoint high‐risk clusters within Denmark. This will aid targeted surveillance efforts within Denmark and potentially aid in planning the location of future poultry farms.
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Zenzal TJ, Ward MP, Diehl RH, Buler JJ, Smolinsky J, Deppe JL, Bolus RT, Celis‐Murillo A, Moore FR. Retreat, detour or advance? Understanding the movements of birds confronting the Gulf of Mexico. OIKOS 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.07834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Gabriele-Rivet V, Ward MP, Arsenault J, London D, Brookes VJ. Could a rabies incursion spread in the northern Australian dingo population? Development of a spatial stochastic simulation model. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009124. [PMID: 33577573 PMCID: PMC7906478 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2020] [Revised: 02/25/2021] [Accepted: 01/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Australia, home to the iconic dingo, is currently free from canine rabies. However northern Australia, including Indigenous communities with large free-roaming domestic dog populations, is at increased risk of rabies incursion from nearby Indonesia. We developed a novel agent-based stochastic spatial rabies spread model to evaluate the potential spread of rabies within the dingo population of the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) region of northern Australia. The model incorporated spatio-temporal features specific to this host-environment system, including landscape heterogeneity, demographic fluctuations, dispersal movements and dingo ecological parameters—such as home range size and density—derived from NPA field studies. Rabies spread between dingo packs in nearly 60% of simulations. In such situations rabies would affect a median of 22 dingoes (approximately 14% of the population; 2.5–97.5 percentiles: 2–101 dingoes) within the study area which covered 1,131 km2, and spread 0.52 km/week for 191 days. Larger outbreaks occurred in scenarios in which an incursion was introduced during the dry season (vs. wet season), and close to communities (vs. areas with high risk of interaction between dingoes and hunting community dogs). Sensitivity analyses revealed that home range size and duration of infectious clinical period contributed most to the variance of outputs. Although conditions in the NPA would most likely not support a sustained propagation of the disease in the dingo population, due to the predicted number of infected dingoes following a rabies incursion and the proximity of Indigenous communities to dingo habitat, we conclude that the risk for human transmission could be substantial. Although Australia is free from canine rabies, an incursion from nearby rabies-infected Indonesian islands is a realistic threat. The ubiquitous presence of dingoes in the wild, in association with large populations of free-roaming domestic dogs from northern Australian Indigenous communities, increases the risk of a rabies outbreak. Using a newly developed simulation model, we investigated the potential spread of rabies in a northern Australian dingo population. Nearly 60% of model simulations resulted in more than one pack infected. When spread did occur, outbreaks affected a median of 22 dingoes (an estimated 14% of the population in this area). The duration of infection, proportion of the population infected and spatial spread of the outbreak was greatest when rabies was introduced during the dry season and close to communities. Our results demonstrate that an incursion of rabies into the northern Australian dingo population would likely lead to a rabies outbreak, which would in turn pose a substantial threat to Indigenous communities in northern Australia.
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Brookes VJ, Barrett TE, Ward MP, Roby JA, Hernandez-Jover M, Cross EM, Donnelly CM, Barnes TS, Wilson CS, Khalfan S. A scoping review of African swine fever virus spread between domestic and free-living pigs. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 68:2643-2656. [PMID: 33455062 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13993] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2020] [Revised: 01/12/2021] [Accepted: 01/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
Since 2007, African swine fever virus (ASFV) has spread to countries in Europe, Asia and Oceania and has caused devastating impacts on pigs and the pork industry. Transmission can be direct or indirect, and epidemiologic scenarios have been described in which spread occurs between free-living and domestic pigs. The purpose of this scoping review was to identify primary research in which authors made statements to support ASFV transmission between free-living and domestic pigs and assess the circumstances in which transmission events occurred. A search was conducted in five bibliographic databases and the grey literature. Two reviewers (from a team of ten) independently screened each record and charted data (demographics of the pig populations, their husbandry [domestic pigs] and habitat [free-living pigs], the spatial and temporal distribution of ASF, the occurrence or burden of ASF in the populations, and whether ticks were present in the geographic range of the pig populations). Data synthesis included statistics and a narrative summary. From 1,349 records screened, data were charted from 46 individual studies published from 1985 to 2020. Outbreak investigations revealed that whilst poor biosecurity of domestic pig operations was often reported, direct contact resulting in transmission between free-living and domestic pigs was rarely reported. Studies in which quantitative associations were made generally found that spread within populations was more important than spread between populations, although this was not always the case, particularly when domestic pigs were free-ranging. We conclude that there is limited evidence that transmission of ASFV between free-living and domestic pigs is an important feature of ASF epidemiology, especially in the current ASF epidemic in Europe and the Russian Federation. If ASFV elimination cannot be achieved in free-living pigs, compartmentalization of domestic pig populations from free-living populations via biosecurity strategies could be used to support trade of domestic pigs.
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Kirkeby C, Brookes VJ, Ward MP, Dürr S, Halasa T. A Practical Introduction to Mechanistic Modeling of Disease Transmission in Veterinary Science. Front Vet Sci 2021; 7:546651. [PMID: 33575275 PMCID: PMC7870987 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.546651] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2020] [Accepted: 12/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Computer-based disease spread models are frequently used in veterinary science to simulate disease spread. They are used to predict the impacts of the disease, plan and assess surveillance, or control strategies, and provide insights about disease causation by comparing model outputs with real life data. There are many types of disease spread models, and here we present and describe the implementation of a particular type: individual-based models. Our aim is to provide a practical introduction to building individual-based disease spread models. We also introduce code examples with the goal to make these techniques more accessible to those who are new to the field. We describe the important steps in building such models before, during and after the programming stage, including model verification (to ensure that the model does what was intended), validation (to investigate whether the model results reflect the modeled system), and convergence analysis (to ensure models of endemic diseases are stable before outputs are collected). We also describe how sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the potential impact of uncertainty about model parameters. Finally, we provide an overview of some interesting recent developments in the field of disease spread models.
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Rahman AKMA, Islam SS, Sufian MA, Talukder MH, Ward MP, Martínez-López B. Peste des Petits Ruminants Risk Factors and Space-Time Clusters in Bangladesh. Front Vet Sci 2021; 7:572432. [PMID: 33569395 PMCID: PMC7868412 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.572432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2020] [Accepted: 12/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is endemic in Bangladesh, but its spatial distribution and risk factors have not yet been reported. Using four years of national-level, passive surveillance data (2014 to 2017), in this study we aimed to identify risk factors, create PPR risk maps and describe PPR time-space clusters. We selected PPR case records—mainly based on presumptive diagnosis of small ruminants in subdistrict veterinary hospitals—and sheep and goat population data from all 64 districts of Bangladesh. Peste des Petits Ruminants cumulative incidence per 10,000 animals at risk per district was used to conduct cluster and hotspot analysis and create predictive maps for each year and all 4 years combined. The association between PPR cumulative incidence and hypothesized risk factors—including climatic variables, elevation, road length, river length, railroad length, land cover, and water bodies—was analyzed using a geographically weighted regression model. The total number of PPR cases reported during the study period was 5.2 million. We found that most PPR cases (27.6%) were reported in the monsoon season. The highest and lowest proportions of cases were reported from Rajshahi (36.1%) and Barisal divisions (2.1%), respectively. We identified five space-time clusters, 9 high–high clusters, and 9 hotspots. The predicted cumulative incidences of PPR were persistently higher in north-east, north-west, and south-east parts of Bangladesh. Road length (P = 0.03) was positively associated with PPR incidence in Bangladesh. Results suggest that movement of animals (road length) plays an important role in the epidemiology of PPR in Bangladesh. Along with restriction of animal movement, hotspots and high–high clusters should be targeted first for immunization coverage in Bangladesh and similar PPR endemic countries to achieve eradication.
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Gabriele-Rivet V, Brookes VJ, Arsenault J, Ward MP. Seasonal and spatial overlap in activity between domestic dogs and dingoes in remote Indigenous communities of northern Australia. Aust Vet J 2021; 99:114-118. [PMID: 33398884 DOI: 10.1111/avj.13047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 11/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Free-roaming domestic dogs in Indigenous communities of northern Australia have the potential to spread diseases at the wild-domestic dog interface. Hunting activities with domestic dogs, commonly practiced in Indigenous communities, also create opportunities for wild-domestic dog interactions in the bush, providing pathways for potential disease spread. Data from a camera-trap study conducted in remote Indigenous communities of northern Australia were used to explore spatial and seasonal opportunities for interactions between dingoes and unsupervised domestic dogs. For each type of dog, activity indices, based on detection events per camera station with an adjustment for sampling effort, were mapped across the study area and plotted against distance to communities. Unsupervised domestic dogs were mostly active in proximity (<1 km) to the communities. However, there was a noticeable peak of activity further in the bush away from the communities, especially in the wet season, coinciding with areas commonly used for hunting activities. In contrast, the activity of dingoes was more homogeneous within the study area, with a higher peak of activity around the communities during the dry season, and in bush areas distant (>10 km) to communities during the wet season. Overall, our findings suggest that interactions between dingoes and unsupervised community dogs are more likely to occur around the communities, particularly during the dry season, whereas in the wet season, there is increased opportunity for interactions in distant areas in the bush between dingoes and, presumably, hunting dogs.
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Hou J, Hong J, Ji B, Dong B, Chen Y, Ward MP, Tu W, Jin Z, Hu J, Su Q, Wang W, Zhao Z, Xiao S, Huang J, Lin W, Zhang Z. Changed transmission epidemiology of COVID-19 at early stage: A nationwide population-based piecewise mathematical modelling study. Travel Med Infect Dis 2021; 39:101918. [PMID: 33189886 PMCID: PMC7661920 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2020] [Revised: 07/05/2020] [Accepted: 11/09/2020] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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Buxton VL, Enos JK, Sperry JH, Ward MP. A review of conspecific attraction for habitat selection across taxa. Ecol Evol 2020; 10:12690-12699. [PMID: 33304487 PMCID: PMC7713925 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6922] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2020] [Revised: 09/18/2020] [Accepted: 09/25/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Many species across taxa select habitat based on conspecific presence, known as conspecific attraction. Studies that document conspecific attraction typically provide social information (i.e., cues that indicate the presence of a given species) and then determine if a given species is more likely to settle at locations where the social information is provided compared to those locations that do not. Although the number of studies examining conspecific attraction has grown in recent years, a comprehensive review has not yet been undertaken. Here, we conducted a review of the literature and found 151 studies investigating conspecific attraction across eight taxa. We found that conspecific attraction is widespread with between 80% and 100% of studies, depending on taxa, documenting positive associations between habitat selection and the presence of conspecific cues. Conspecific attraction has been documented more frequently in bird and fish species with less attention given to invertebrate and mammal species. We use the patterns we found to (a) provide an overview of the current state of research on conspecific attraction and (b) discuss how important factors, such as cue characteristics and life history traits, may play a role in shaping conspecific attraction patterns within and across taxa.
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Atherstone C, Mgode GF, Dhand NK, Alonso S, Grace D, Ward MP, Mor SM. Selected Endemic Zoonoses in Pigs Presenting for Slaughter in Kampala, Uganda. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2020; 103:2552-2560. [PMID: 33069266 PMCID: PMC7695076 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.20-0033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Leptospirosis, brucellosis, and Q fever (coxiellosis) are bacterial zoonoses that cause acute febrile illness in people as well as reproductive losses in pigs. Pig keeping is an increasingly important livelihood to millions of smallholder farmers in Uganda because of exponential increases in demand for pork. The prevalence of leptospirosis and Q fever in pigs is unknown, and the few studies of porcine brucellosis have estimated a range of seroprevalence. Therefore, we undertook a prevalence survey of leptospirosis, brucellosis, and Q fever in pigs using quantitative real-time PCR to determine the potential importance of these zoonoses to the growing pig sector in Uganda. Six hundred forty-nine pigs were sampled in 2015–2016 at an urban pork slaughterhouse. Ten percent of pigs (n = 68) had leptospiral DNA in either their kidney or reproductive tissue. In adjusted analyses, variables predictive of leptospiral status included female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 2.37, P < 0.01) and pigs sampled in March 2016 (OR: 2.23, P = 0.02) and October 2016 (OR: 0.30, P = 0.04). DNA fingerprinting revealed circulation of at least four distinct serovars in these pigs. Brucella spp. and Coxiella burnetii DNA were not detected in any sampled pig. This is the first report of widespread circulation of pathogenic Leptospira spp. in pigs in Uganda, suggesting that leptospirosis likely has a greater impact on the health of pigs than was previously recognized. Pig farmers, pig traders, and slaughterhouse workers may be at greatest occupational risk because of their direct contact with infective leptospires in aborted fetuses, bodily fluids, and other tissues.
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Hombo H, Oyarzo M, Álvarez C, Cuadros N, Hernández F, Ward MP, Acosta-Jamett G. Spatial epidemiology of cystic echinococcosis in livestock from a hyper-endemic region in southern Chile. Vet Parasitol 2020; 287:109258. [PMID: 33075729 DOI: 10.1016/j.vetpar.2020.109258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2020] [Revised: 09/26/2020] [Accepted: 09/27/2020] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a parasitic zoonosis, caused by the larval stage of Echinococcus granulosus. This disease has a worldwide distribution and is considered an important zoonosis in Chile, especially in regions where raising livestock dominates. We aimed to describe the spatial distribution and risk factors for CE in cattle and sheep slaughtered in the Aysén Region, Chile between 2015 and 2016, to inform disease control in this hyper-endemic region. Clustering and hotspot analyses of CE at the farm-level were performed (Moran's global index, local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA), and the scan statistic Poisson model), and we used spatial interpolation to display areas with a higher risk of CE. Mixed effects logistic regression models were fit to assess the association between municipality of origin and age of animals and CE detected at slaughter, with the farm of origin included as a random effect. Overall, data from 1532 cattle farms (1078 geocoded) and 30,805 cattle were analyzed, with a 64 % and 39 % CE prevalence at the farm and animal-level, respectively. For sheep farms, data from 381 (296 geocoded) farms and 58,223 sheep were analyzed, with a 71 % and 18 % CE prevalence at the farm and animal-level, respectively. Globally, the CE prevalence in both cattle and sheep farms was not clustered. However, we found 14 cattle and 23 sheep farms with high prevalence that were locally clustered. We also detected 6 and 11 clusters in cattle and sheep farms, respectively. Risk of reported CE varied according to municipalities of origin, and the age of animals. This study confirms that the Aysén region is a hyper-endemic region for CE. It demonstrates the usefulness of the traceability of animals slaughtered for understanding the epidemiology of CE. The results suggest that in this hyper-endemic region in which there are limited financial resources available, that intervention activities - at the beginning of a control program - should be focused on farms with high prevalence and identified disease clusters.
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Atherstone C, Diederich S, Pickering B, Smith G, Casey G, Fischer K, Ward MP, Ndoboli D, Weingartl H, Alonso S, Dhand N, Roesel K, Grace D, Mor SM. Investigation of Ebolavirus exposure in pigs presented for slaughter in Uganda. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 68:1521-1530. [PMID: 32915496 PMCID: PMC8247040 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2020] [Revised: 08/25/2020] [Accepted: 08/31/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
In 2008, an outbreak of Reston ebolavirus (RESTV) in pigs in the Philippines expanded our understanding of the host range of ebolaviruses. Subsequent experimental infections with the human‐pathogenic species Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) confirmed that pigs are susceptible to African species of ebolaviruses. Pig keeping has become an increasingly important livelihood strategy throughout parts of sub‐Saharan Africa, driven by increasing demand for pork. The growth in pig keeping is particularly rapid in Uganda, which has the highest per capita pork consumption in East Africa and a history of sporadic human outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD). Using a systematic sampling protocol, we collected sera from 658 pigs presented for slaughter in Uganda between December 2015 and October 2016. Forty‐six pigs (7%) were seropositive based on ELISA tests at two different institutions. Seropositive pigs had antibodies that bound to Sudan NP (n = 27), Zaire NP (Kikwit; n = 8) or both NPs (n = 11). Sera from 4 of the ELISA‐positive pigs reacted in Western blot (EBOV NP = 1; RESTV NP = 2; both NPs = 2), and one sample had full neutralizing antibody against Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV) in virus neutralization tests. Pigs sampled in June 2016 were significantly more likely to be seropositive than pigs sampled in October 2016 (p = .03). Seropositive pigs were sourced from all regions except Western region. These observed temporal and spatial variations are suggestive of multiple introductions of ebolaviruses into the pig population in Uganda. This is the first report of exposure of pigs in Uganda to ebolaviruses and the first to employ systematic abattoir sampling for ebolavirus surveillance during a non‐outbreak period. Future studies will be necessary to further define the role pigs play (if any) in ebolavirus maintenance and transmission so that potential risks can be mitigated.
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Ward MP, Iglesias RM, Brookes VJ. Autoregressive Models Applied to Time-Series Data in Veterinary Science. Front Vet Sci 2020; 7:604. [PMID: 33094106 PMCID: PMC7527444 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.00604] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2019] [Accepted: 07/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
A time-series is any set of N time-ordered observations of a process. In veterinary epidemiology, our focus is generally on disease occurrence (the “process”) over time, but animal production, welfare or other traits might also be of interest. A common source of time-series datasets are animal disease monitoring and surveillance systems. Here, we scan the application of methods to analyse time-series data in the peer-reviewed, published literature. Based on this literature scan we focus on autocorrelation and illustrate the recommended steps using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models) methods via analysis of a time-series of canine parvovirus (CPV) events in a pet dog population in Australia, 2009 to 2015. We conclude by identifying the barriers to the application of ARIMA methods in veterinary epidemiology and suggest some possible solutions. In the literature scan the selected 37 studies focused mostly on infectious and parasitic diseases, predominantly for analytical, rather than descriptive or predictive, purposes. Trends and seasonality were investigated, and autocorrelation analyzed, in most studies, most commonly using R software. An approach to analyzing autocorrelation using ARIMA methods was then illustrated using a time-series (week and month units) of CPV events in a pet dog population in Australia, reported to a national companion animal disease surveillance system. This time-series was derived by summing veterinarian reports of confirmed CPV diagnoses. We present data analysis output generated via the R statistical environment, and make this code available for the reader to apply to this or other time-series datasets. We also illustrate prediction of CPV events by rainfall as a covariate. Time-series analysis using ARIMA methods to understand and explore autocorrelation appears to be relatively uncommon in veterinary epidemiology. Some of the reasons might include limited availability of data of sufficient time unit length, lack of familiarity with analytical methods and available software, and how to best use the information generated. We recommend that wherever feasible, such time-series data be made available both for analysis and for methods development.
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Chowdhuary MGA, Islam SS, Khair A, Hossain MM, Ahmed G, Brum E, Debnath NC, Badhy SC, Habib MA, Rumi TB, Rahman AA, Ward MP. A further outbreak of classical swine fever in indigenous pigs in Kurigram district, Bangladesh. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 67:1922-1929. [PMID: 32097524 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13527] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2019] [Revised: 02/12/2020] [Accepted: 02/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Deaths of native scavenging pigs were reported in mid-November 2015 at Nageswari sub-district, Kurigram district of Bangladesh. The investigation for a suspected classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak was accomplished via a joint outbreak investigation team from Department of Livestock Services (DLS) and Food and Agriculture Organization, Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Disease (FAO-ECTAD), Bangladesh. Out of 592 pigs, 396 were infected and among them 263 died. The attack rate and case fatality rate were 66.9% and 66.4%, respectively. The epidemic curve constructed using the data captured from the CSF outbreak site was nearly bell-shaped, indicating a point source epidemic. The basic reproduction numbers (R0) were estimated to be 1.6 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 1.5-1.7) and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3-1.7) based on attack rate and exponential growth rate methods, respectively. Adult pigs showed signs of high fever, staggering gait and depression, whereas piglets either died without any premonitory signs or purulent exudates in the eyes were observed. Post-mortem examination was carried out on a 6-month-old piglet. The necropsy findings included were swollen lymph nodes deep red in colour, and haemorrhages on serous and mucous membranes of the intestinal organs together with button-like ulceration in the intestines. Nasal swabs and tissue samples (spleen, lung and liver) were tested using real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and found to be positive for CSF virus. One-step RT-PCR was used to amplify 1,148 base pair of E2 gene in extracted RNA and was sequenced using standard Sanger's sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the virus as genotype 2.2 that clustered with CSF virus sequences from Bangladesh and India. This is only the second report of a CSF outbreak in Bangladesh. CSF appears to be an emerging transboundary disease in this country. A special programme for controlling swine diseases is needed since pigs are being reared by marginalized communities of Bangladesh to provide livelihoods and food security.
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Ward MP, Xiao S, Zhang Z. Humidity is a consistent climatic factor contributing to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 67:3069-3074. [PMID: 32750215 PMCID: PMC7436622 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2020] [Revised: 07/23/2020] [Accepted: 07/28/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
There is growing evidence that climatic factors could influence the evolution of the current COVID‐19 pandemic. Here, we build on this evidence base, focusing on the southern hemisphere summer and autumn period. The relationship between climatic factors and COVID‐19 cases in New South Wales, Australia was investigated during both the exponential and declining phases of the epidemic in 2020, and in different regions. Increased relative humidity was associated with decreased cases in both epidemic phases, and a consistent negative relationship was found between relative humidity and cases. Overall, a decrease in relative humidity of 1% was associated with an increase in cases of 7–8%. Overall, we found no relationship with between cases and temperature, rainfall or wind speed. Information generated in this study confirms humidity as a driver of SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission.
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Kelman M, Norris JM, Barrs VR, Ward MP. A history of canine parvovirus in Australia: what can we learn? Aust Vet J 2020; 98:504-510. [PMID: 32754949 DOI: 10.1111/avj.13002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2020] [Revised: 06/28/2020] [Accepted: 06/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Canine parvovirus (CPV) has been reported throughout the world since the late 1970s. Published information was reviewed to draw insights into the epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment and outcomes of CPV disease in Australia and the role of scientific research on CPV occurrence, with key research discoveries and knowledge gaps identified. Australian researchers contributed substantially to early findings, including the first reported cases of parvoviral myocarditis, investigations into disease aetiopathogenesis, host and environmental risk factors and links between CPV and feline panleukopenia. Two of the world's first CPV serological surveys were conducted in Australia and a 1980 national veterinary survey of Australian and New Zealand dogs revealed 6824 suspected CPV cases and 1058 deaths. In 2010, an Australian national disease surveillance system was launched; 4940 CPV cases were reported between 2009 and 2014, although underreporting was likely. A 2017 study estimated national incidence to be 4.12 cases per 1000 dogs, and an annual case load of 20,110 based on 4219 CPV case reports in a survey of all Australian veterinary clinics, with a 23.5% response rate. CPV disease risk factors identified included socioeconomic disadvantage, geographical location (rural/remote), season (summer) and rainfall (recent rain and longer dry periods both increasing risk). Age <16 weeks was identified as a risk factor for vaccination failure. Important knowledge gaps exist regarding national canine and feline demographic and CPV case data, vaccination coverage and population immunity, CPV transmission between owned dogs and other carnivore populations in Australia and the most effective methods to control epizootics.
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Paquette CC, Schemann KA, Ward MP. Knowledge and attitudes of Australian livestock producers concerning biosecurity practices. Aust Vet J 2020; 98:533-545. [PMID: 32754999 DOI: 10.1111/avj.13005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2020] [Revised: 06/10/2020] [Accepted: 06/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Biosecurity risks are a major threat to the profitability of the industry as well as impacting human and animal health. Livestock producers play a crucial role in biosecurity as the first to notice changes in the health or productivity of their stock and are generally responsible for implementing protective measures. However, uptake of biosecurity measures by producers is variable. We critically appraised the current literature regarding biosecurity practices in Australian livestock industries and highlight aspects that are well understood as well as those where further research or information is needed. Findings from 12 cross-sectional studies suggest that Australian producers' knowledge of biosecurity methods and importance might have a positive influence on their willingness to implement or incorporate biosecurity practices. There is moderate evidence supportive of biosecurity being well understood by livestock producers across Australia. Barriers to producers using biosecurity practices included lack of information or communication from agricultural, veterinary or government organisations. It was found that larger stock numbers were positively correlated with biosecurity implementation and that producers used veterinarians, government and industry agencies as resources for trusted information.
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Qi H, Xiao S, Shi R, Ward MP, Chen Y, Tu W, Su Q, Wang W, Wang X, Zhang Z. COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: A time-series analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 728:138778. [PMID: 32335405 PMCID: PMC7167225 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 306] [Impact Index Per Article: 76.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2020] [Revised: 04/16/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2020] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily counts of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei from December 1, 2019 to February 11, 2020 and in other provinces from January 20, 2020 to Februarys 11, 2020). A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1 °C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04 °C to 8.2 °C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout Mainland China.
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Qi H, Xiao S, Shi R, Ward MP, Chen Y, Tu W, Su Q, Wang W, Wang X, Zhang Z. COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: A time-series analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 728:138778. [PMID: 32335405 DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.30.20044099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2020] [Revised: 04/16/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2020] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily counts of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei from December 1, 2019 to February 11, 2020 and in other provinces from January 20, 2020 to Februarys 11, 2020). A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1 °C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04 °C to 8.2 °C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout Mainland China.
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Brookes VJ, Ward MP, Rock M, Degeling C. One Health promotion and the politics of dog management in remote, northern Australian communities. Sci Rep 2020; 10:12451. [PMID: 32709859 PMCID: PMC7381604 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-69316-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2020] [Accepted: 07/09/2020] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Community perspectives are rarely sought or integrated into dog management policy and practice. Dog management in remote communities in Australia has focused on reducing the number of dogs, which is often implemented by visiting veterinarians, despite widely-held opinions that fly-in-fly-out services provide only temporary solutions. We conducted participatory research in a group of remote communities in northern Australia to explore how dog-related problems arise and are managed, and explain their impacts from a One Health perspective. Over the course of a year, 53 residents from a range of backgrounds contributed through in-depth interviews with key community service providers, and informal semi-structured discussions with community residents. Free-roaming dogs have broader impacts on canine and human health than previously documented. Dog-keeping norms that enable free-roaming can enhance human and dog wellbeing and intra-family connectivity. This can also cause disengagement and conflict with other residents, leading to resentment and occasionally violence towards dogs. Dog-related problems are underpinned by constraints associated with remote-living, governance and differing sociocultural norms. Focusing on dog population reduction detracts from the welfare benefits and sociocultural value of free-roaming dogs and undermines community-determined management that can overcome constraints to support local values and co-promote canine and human wellbeing.
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Brookes VJ, Degeling C, van Eeden LM, Ward MP. What Is a Dingo? The Phenotypic Classification of Dingoes by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Residents in Northern Australia. Animals (Basel) 2020; 10:ani10071230. [PMID: 32698324 PMCID: PMC7401616 DOI: 10.3390/ani10071230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2020] [Revised: 07/07/2020] [Accepted: 07/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary Dingoes are an Australian icon with cultural, as well as ecological, value, yet defining a dingo is complicated by hybridisation with domestic dogs. Northern Australia is a high-risk zone for the arrival of rabies, a disease which affects dogs (including dingoes) and people. In a rabies outbreak, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who live in this region would want dingoes protected. We visited the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), Queensland, in 2018–2019 and surveyed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents about how they define dingoes, using pictures from camera traps previously placed and operated in the area. We found that dingo definition was based on characteristics traditionally associated with the iconic dingo (medium to large-framed dogs, with a long nose, pointed ears, narrow abdomen, bushy tail, smooth tan coats, and white feet and tail tip) but hybrid features, such as curled tail or a lack of white points, were also acceptable features. Local definitions are important when designing and implementing management plans so that actions are supported by local communities, and our findings are a useful guide for identifying dingoes in the NPA so that, in the event of a rabies outbreak, locally valued dingoes could be identified and protected. Abstract Dingo classification and management is complicated by hybridisation with domestic dogs. Northern Australia is a relatively high-risk zone for a rabies incursion, and in the event of an incursion, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who reside in this region would prioritise the protection of dingoes. Therefore, the classification of dingoes in this context is important. Twelve pictures of canids with features associated with both dingoes and domestic dogs from camera traps in the Northern Peninsula Area (NPA), northern Queensland, were shown to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander rangers (n = 3), biosecurity officers (n = 2), environmental health workers (n = 2), and residents (n = 39) in the NPA. Nearly all pictures (10/12) were classified as dingo or domestic dog (none as hybrid) and two were inconclusive (no overall agreement). Dingoes were consistently identified as medium to large-framed dogs, with a long nose, pointed ears, narrow abdomen, a bushy or feathered tail, and smooth coats of a single base colour. Some hybrid features were acceptable, including sable coats, lack of white tail tip or feet, and curled tail. These findings are a preliminary guide for identifying canids in the NPA region for whom management might be controversial. Building on this approach via further consultation with residents is needed to inform rabies response policy. Our approach using locally acquired camera trap pictures could also be extended to other regions in which dingoes have value but their management is controversial.
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