Age-specific reproduction in female Steller sea lions in Southeast Alaska

Age-, region-, and year-specific estimates of reproduction are needed for monitoring wildlife populations during periods of ecosystem change. Population dynamics of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Southeast Alaska varied regionally (with high population growth and survival in the north vs. the south) and annually (with reduced adult female survival observed following a severe marine heatwave event), but reproductive performance is currently unknown. We used mark-resighting data from 1006 Steller sea lion females marked as pups at ~3 weeks of age from 1994 to 1995 and from 2001 to 2005 and resighted from 2002 to 2019 (to a maximum age of 25) to examine age-, region-, and year-specific reproduction. In the north versus the south, age of first reproduction was earlier (beginning at age 4 vs. age 5, respectively) but annual birth probabilities of parous females were reduced by 0.05. In an average year pre-heatwave, the proportion of females with pup at the end of the pupping season peaked at ages 12-13 with ~0.60/0.65 (north/south) with pup, ~0.30/0.25 with juvenile, and ~0.10 (both regions) without a dependent. In both regions, reproductive senescence was gradual after age 12: ~0.40, 0.40, and 0.20 of females were in these reproductive states, respectively, by age 20. Correcting for neonatal mortality, true birth probabilities at peak ages were 0.66/0.72 (north/south). No cost of reproduction on female survival was detected, but pup production remained lower (-0.06) after the heatwave event, which if sustained could result in population decline in the south. Reduced pup production and greater retention of juveniles during periods of poor prey conditions may be an important strategy for Steller sea lions in Southeast Alaska, where fine-tuning reproduction based on nutritional status may improve the lifetime probability of producing pups under good conditions in a variable and less productive environment.

Industrial fisheries have reversed the carbon sequestration by tuna carcasses into emissions

To limit climate warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels, most economic sectors will need a rapid transformation toward a net zero emission of CO2 . Tuna fisheries is a key food production sector that burns fossil fuel to operate but also reduces the deadfall of large-bodied fish so the capacity of this natural carbon pump to deep sea. Yet, the carbon balance of tuna populations, so the net difference between CO2 emission due to industrial exploitation and CO2 sequestration by fish deadfall after natural mortality, is still unknown. Here, by considering the dynamics of two main contrasting tuna species (Katsuwonus pelamis and Thunnus obesus) across the Pacific since the 1980s, we show that most tuna populations became CO2 sources instead of remaining natural sinks. Without considering the supply chain, the main factors associated with this shift are exploitation rate, transshipment intensity, fuel consumption, and climate change. Our study urges for a better global ocean stewardship, by curbing subsidies and limiting transshipment in remote international waters, to quickly rebuild most pelagic fish stocks above their target management reference points and reactivate a neglected carbon pump toward the deep sea as an additional Nature Climate Solution in our portfolio. Even if this potential carbon sequestration by surface unit may appear low compared to that of coastal ecosystems or tropical forests, the ocean covers a vast area and the sinking biomass of dead vertebrates can sequester carbon for around 1000 years in the deep sea. We also highlight the multiple co-benefits and trade-offs from engaging the industrial fisheries sector with carbon neutrality.

The role of spatial structure in at-risk metapopulation recoveries

Metapopulations are often managed as a single contiguous population despite the spatial structure underlying their local and regional dynamics. Disturbances from human activities can also be spatially structured with mortality impacts concentrated to just a few local populations among the aggregate. Scale transitions between local and regional processes can generate emergent properties whereby the whole system can fail to recover as quickly as expected for an equivalent single population. Here, we draw on theory and empirical case studies to ask: what is the consequence of spatially structured ecological and disturbance processes on metapopulation recoveries? We suggest that exploring this question could help address knowledge gaps for managing metapopulations including: Why do some metapopulations recover quickly while others remain collapsed? And, what risks are unaccounted for when metapopulations are managed at aggregate scales? First, we used model simulations to examine how scale transitions among ecological and disturbance conditions interact to generate emergent metapopulation recovery outcomes. In general, we found that the spatial structure of disturbance was a strong determinant of recovery outcomes. Specifically, disturbances that unevenly impacted local populations consistently generated the slowest recoveries and highest conservation risks. Ecological conditions that dampened metapopulation recoveries included low dispersal, variable local demography, sparsely connected habitat networks, and spatially and temporally correlated stochastic processes. Second, we illustrate the unexpected challenges of managing metapopulations by examining the recoveries of three USA federally listed endangered species: Florida Everglade snail kites, California and Alaska sea otters, and Snake River Chinook salmon. Overall, our results show the pivotal role of spatial structure in metapopulation recoveries whereby the interplay between local and regional processes shapes the resilience of the whole system. With this understanding, we provide guidelines for resource managers tasked with conserving and managing metapopulations and identify opportunities for research to support the application of metapopulation theory to real-world challenges.

Models of underlying autotrophic biomass dynamics fit to daily river ecosystem productivity estimates improve understanding of ecosystem disturbance and resilience

Directly observing autotrophic biomass at ecologically relevant frequencies is difficult in many ecosystems, hampering our ability to predict productivity through time. Since disturbances can impart distinct reductions in river productivity through time by modifying underlying standing stocks of biomass, mechanistic models fit to productivity time series can infer underlying biomass dynamics. We incorporated biomass dynamics into a river ecosystem productivity model for six rivers to identify disturbance flow thresholds and understand the resilience of primary producers. The magnitude of flood necessary to disturb biomass and thereby reduce ecosystem productivity was consistently lower than the more commonly used disturbance flow threshold of the flood magnitude necessary to mobilize river bed sediment. The estimated daily maximum percent increase in biomass (a proxy for resilience) ranged from 5% to 42% across rivers. Our latent biomass model improves understanding of disturbance thresholds and recovery patterns of autotrophic biomass within river ecosystems.

Evaluating the importance of individual heterogeneity in reproduction to Weddell seal population dynamics using integral projection models

Identifying and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demographic models is important for estimating population-level vital rates and identifying diverse life-history strategies, but much less is known about how this individual heterogeneity influences population dynamics. We aimed to understand how the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproductive and survival rates influenced population dynamics using vital rates from a Weddell seal population by altering the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction, which also altered the distribution of individual survival rates through the incorporation of our estimate of the correlation between the two rates and assessing resulting changes in population growth. We constructed an integral projection model (IPM) structured by age and reproductive state using estimates of vital rates for a long-lived mammal that has recently been shown to exhibit large individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Using output from the IPM, we evaluated how population dynamics changed with different underlying distributions of unobserved individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Results indicate that the changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction cause very small changes in the population growth rate and other population metrics. The largest difference in the estimated population growth rate resulting from changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity was less than 1%. Our work highlights the differing importance of individual heterogeneity at the population level compared to the individual level. Although individual heterogeneity in reproduction may result in large differences in the lifetime fitness of individuals, changing the proportion of above- or below-average breeders in the population results in much smaller differences in annual population growth rate. For a long-lived mammal with stable and high adult-survival that gives birth to a single offspring, individual heterogeneity in reproduction has a limited effect on population dynamics. We posit that the limited effect of individual heterogeneity on population dynamics may be due to canalization of life-history traits.

A Faboideae-Specific Floral Scent Betrays Seeds to an Important Granivore Pest

Seed predation by insect herbivores reduces crop production worldwide. Foraging on seeds at pre-dispersal generally means that females need to find the suitable host plant within a relatively short timeframe in order to synchronize larval development with seed production. The mechanistic understanding of host finding by seed pests can be harnessed for more sustainable pest management strategies. We here studied the chemical communication between the bean bug Riptortus pedestris, a major pest of legumes, and several crop species and cultivars in the Fabaceae. Via a comparative chemical analysis, we found that 1-octen-3-ol is the principal constituent of the floral scents of most species tested in the subfamily Faboideae, including soybean and faba bean. With field trapping and laboratory bioassays, including electroantennography, we further revealed that this compound can be perceived, and stimulate attraction responses, by R. pedestris nymphs and adults. The addition of 1-octen-3-ol to pheromone traps might therefore improve trapping efficacy for controlling populations of this important granivore pest on legumes.

Natural mega disturbances drive spatial and temporal changes in diversity and genetic structure on the toadfish Aphos porosus

Natural disturbances can modify extinction-colonization dynamics, driving changes in the genetic diversity and structure of marine populations. Along Chilean coast (36°S, 73°W), a strong hypoxic-upwelling event in 2008, and a mega earthquake-tsunami in 2010 caused mass mortality within the Aphos porosus population, which is a vulnerable species with low dispersal potential. We evaluated the effects of these two major disturbances on the diversity and spatial-temporal genetic structure of Aphos porosus in two neighboring areas that were impacted on different levels (High level: Coliumo Bay; Low level: Itata Shelf). Thirteen microsatellites (from 2008 to 2015) amplified in individuals collected from both locations were used to evaluate the effects of the two disturbances. Results showed that after the strong hypoxic-upwelling event and the mega earthquake-tsunami, Aphos porosus populations exhibited lower genetic diversity and less effective population sizes (Ne < 20), as well as asymmetries in migration and spatial-temporal genetic structure. These findings suggest a rise in extinction-recolonization dynamics in local Aphos porosus populations after the disturbances, which led to a loss of local genetic diversity (mainly in Coliumo Bay area impacted the most), and to greater spatial-temporal genetic structure caused by drift and gene flow. Our results suggest that continuous genetic monitoring is needed in order to assess potential risks for Aphos porosus in light of new natural and anthropogenic disturbances.

Biotic and Abiotic Interactions in Freshwater Mesocosms Determine Fate and Toxicity of CuO Nanoparticles

Transformation, dissolution, and sorption of copper oxide nanoparticles (CuO-NP) play an important role in freshwater ecosystems. We present the first mesocosm experiment on the fate of CuO-NP and the dynamics of the zooplankton community over a period of 12 months. Increasingly low (0.08-0.28 mg Cu L-1) and high (0.99-2.99 mg Cu L-1) concentrations of CuO-NP and CuSO4 (0.10-0.34 mg Cu L-1) were tested in a multiple dosing scenario. At the high applied concentration (CuO-NP_H) CuO-NP aggregated and sank onto the sediment layer, where we recovered 63% of Cu applied. For the low concentration (CuO-NP_L) only 41% of applied copper could be recovered in the sediment. In the water column, the percentage of initially applied Cu recovered was on average 3-fold higher for CuO-NP_L than for CuO-NP_H. Zooplankton abundance was substantially compromised in the treatments CuSO4 (p < 0.001) and CuO-NP_L (p < 0.001). Community analysis indicated that Cladocera were most affected (bk = -0.49), followed by Nematocera (bk = -0.32). The abundance of Cladocera over time and of Dixidae in summer was significantly reduced in the treatment CuO-NP_L (p < 0.001; p < 0.05) compared to the Control. Our results indicate a higher potential for negative impacts on the freshwater community when lower concentrations of CuO-NP (<0.1 mg Cu L-1) enter the ecosystem.

Ecological Interactions among Thrips, Soybean Plants, and Soybean Vein Necrosis Virus in Pennsylvania, USA

Analysis of ecological and evolutionary aspects leading to durability of resistance in soybean cultivars against species Soybean vein necrosis orthotospovirus (SVNV) (Bunyavirales: Tospoviridae) is important for the establishment of integrated pest management (IPM) across the United States, which is a leading exporter of soybeans in the world. SVNV is a seed- and thrips- (vector)-borne plant virus known from the USA and Canada to Egypt. We monitored the resistance of soybean cultivars against SVNV, surveyed thrips species on various crops including soybeans in Pennsylvania, and studied thrips overwintering hibernation behavior under field conditions. Field and lab experiments determined disease incidence and vector abundance in soybean genotypes. The impact of the virus, vector, and their combination on soybean physiology was also evaluated. Seed protein, fiber, oil, and carbohydrate content were analyzed using near infra-red spectroscopy. We found that the variety Channel3917R2x had higher numbers of thrips; hence, it was categorized as preferred, while results showed that no variety was immune to SVNV. We found that thrips infestation alone or in combination with SVNV infection negatively impacted soybean growth and physiological processes.

Investigating two consecutive catastrophic breeding seasons in a large king penguin colony

Large-scale breeding failures, such as offspring die-offs, can disproportionately impact wildlife populations that are characterized by a few large colonies. However, breeding monitoring-and thus investigations of such die-offs-is especially challenging in species with long reproductive cycles. We investigate two unresolved dramatic breeding failures that occurred in consecutive years (2009 and 2010) in a large king penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus colony, a long-lived species with a breeding cycle lasting over a year. Here we found that a single period, winter 2009, was likely responsible for the occurrence of breeding anomalies during both breeding seasons, suggesting that adults experienced poor foraging conditions at sea at that time. Following that unfavorable winter, the 2009 breeding cohort-who were entering the late stage of chick-rearing-immediately experienced high chick mortality. Meanwhile, the 2010 breeding cohort greatly delayed their arrival and egg laying, which would have otherwise started not long after the winter. The 2010 breeding season continued to display anomalies during the incubation and chick-rearing period, such as high abandonment rate, long foraging trips and eventually the death of all chicks in winter 2010. These anomalies could have resulted from either a domino-effect caused by the delayed laying, the continuation of poor foraging conditions, or both. This study provides an example of a large-scale catastrophic breeding failure and highlights the importance of the winter period on phenology and reproduction success for wildlife that breed in few large colonies.

Remotely sensed environmental measurements detect decoupled processes driving population dynamics at contrasting scales

The increasing availability of satellite imagery has supported a rapid expansion in forward-looking studies seeking to track and predict how climate change will influence wild population dynamics. However, these data can also be used in retrospect to provide additional context for historical data in the absence of contemporaneous environmental measurements. We used 167 Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images spanning 13 years to identify environmental drivers of fitness and population size in a well-characterized population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spectabilis) in the southwestern United States. We found evidence of two decoupled processes that may be driving population dynamics in opposing directions over distinct time frames. Specifically, increasing mean surface temperature corresponded to increased individual fitness, where fitness is defined as the number of offspring produced by a single individual. This result contrasts with our findings for population size, where increasing surface temperature led to decreased numbers of active mounds. These relationships between surface temperature and (i) individual fitness and (ii) population size would not have been identified in the absence of remotely sensed data, indicating that such information can be used to test existing hypotheses and generate new ecological predictions regarding fitness at multiple spatial scales and degrees of sampling effort. To our knowledge, this study is the first to directly link remotely sensed environmental data to individual fitness in a nearly exhaustively sampled population, opening a new avenue for incorporating remote sensing data into eco-evolutionary studies.

Theoretical assessment of persistence and adaptation in weeds with complex life cycles

Herbicide-resistant weeds pose a substantial threat to global food security. Perennial weed species are particularly troublesome. Such perennials as Sorghum halepense spread quickly and are difficult to manage due to their ability to reproduce sexually via seeds and asexually through rhizomes. Our theoretical study of S. halepense incorporates this complex life cycle with control measures of herbicide application and tillage. Rooted in the biology and experimental data of S. halepense, our population-based model predicts population dynamics and target-site resistance evolution in this perennial weed. We found that the resistance cost determines the standing genetic variation for herbicide resistance. The sexual phase of the life cycle, including self-pollination and seed bank dynamics, contributes substantially to the persistence and rapid adaptation of S. halepense. While self-pollination accelerates target-site resistance evolution, seed banks considerably increase the probability of escape from control strategies and maintain genetic variation. Combining tillage and herbicide application effectively reduces weed densities and the risk of control failure without delaying resistance adaptation. We also show how mixtures of different herbicide classes are superior to rotations and mono-treatment in controlling perennial weeds and resistance evolution. Thus, by integrating experimental data and agronomic views, our theoretical study synergistically contributes to understanding and tackling the global threat to food security from resistant weeds.

Quantifying stochastic establishment of mutants in microbial adaptation

Studies of microbial evolution, especially in applied contexts, have focused on the role of selection in shaping predictable, adaptive responses to the environment. However, chance events - the appearance of novel genetic variants and their establishment, i.e. outgrowth from a single cell to a sizeable population - also play critical initiating roles in adaptation. Stochasticity in establishment has received little attention in microbiology, potentially due to lack of awareness as well as practical challenges in quantification. However, methods for high-replicate culturing, mutant labelling and detection, and statistical inference now make it feasible to experimentally quantify the establishment probability of specific adaptive genotypes. I review methods that have emerged over the past decade, including experimental design and mathematical formulas to estimate establishment probability from data. Quantifying establishment in further biological settings and comparing empirical estimates to theoretical predictions represent exciting future directions. More broadly, recognition that adaptive genotypes may be stochastically lost while rare is significant both for interpreting common lab assays and for designing interventions to promote or inhibit microbial evolution.

Inferring Evolutionary Timescale of Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever Virus

Until 2020, there were only three original complete genome (CG) nucleotide sequences of Omsk hemorrhagic fever virus (OHFV) in GenBank. For this reason, the evolutionary rate and divergence time assessments reported in the literature were based on the E gene sequences, but notably without temporal signal evaluation, such that their reliability is unclear. As of July 2022, 47 OHFV CG sequences have been published, which enables testing of temporal signal in the data and inferring unbiased and reliable substitution rate and divergence time values. Regression analysis in the TempEst software demonstrated a stronger clocklike behavior in OHFV samples for the complete open reading frame (ORF) data set (R² = 0.42) than for the E gene data set (R² = 0.11). Bayesian evaluation of temporal signal indicated very strong evidence, with a log Bayes factor of more than 5, in favor of temporal signal in all data sets. Our results based on the complete ORF sequences showed a more precise OHFV substitution rate (95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval, 9.1 × 10^-5-1.8 × 10^-4 substitutions per site per year) and tree root height (416-896 years ago) compared with previous assessments. The rate obtained is significantly higher than tick-borne encephalitis virus by at least 3.8-fold. The phylogenetic analysis and past population dynamics reconstruction revealed the declining trend of OHFV genetic diversity, but there was phylogenomic evidence that implicit virus subpopulations evolved locally and underwent an exponential growth phase.

Human-caused wolf mortality persists for years after discontinuation of hunting

By the mid-twentieth century, wolves were nearly extinct in the lower 48 states, with a small number surviving in northern Minnesota. After wolves were placed on the endangered species list in 1973, the northern Minnesota wolf population increased and stabilized by the early 2000s. A wolf trophy hunt was introduced in 2012-2014 and then halted by a court order in December 2014. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources collected wolf radiotelemetry data for the years 2004-2019. Statistical analysis showed that wolf mortality remained close to constant from 2004 until the initiation of the hunt, and that mortality doubled with the initiation of the first hunting and trapping season in 2012, remaining at a nearly constant elevated level through 2019. Notably, average annual wolf mortality increased from 21.7% before wolf hunting seasons (10.0% by human causes and 11.7% natural causes) to 43.4% (35.8% by human causes and 7.6% natural causes). The fine-grained statistical trend implies that human-caused mortality increased sharply during the hunting seasons, while natural mortality initially dropped. After the hunt's discontinuation, human-caused mortality remained higher than prior to the hunting seasons throughout the five years of the available after-hunt radiotelemetry data.

Productivity vs. Evenness in the U.S. Financial Market: A Business Ecosystem Perspective

This paper starts by presenting an empirical finding in the U.S. stock market: Between 2001 and 2021, high productivity was achieved when the Shannon evenness-measuring the inverse of concentration-dropped. Conversely, when the Shannon evenness soared, productivity plunged. The same inverse relationship between evenness and productivity has been observed in several ecosystems. This suggests explaining this result by adopting the business ecosystem perspective, i.e., regarding the tangle of interactions between companies as an ecological network, in which companies play the role of species. A useful strategy to model such ecological communities is through ensembles of synthetic communities of pairwise interacting species, whose dynamics is described by the Lotka-Volterra generalized equations. Each community is specified by a random interaction matrix whose elements are drawn from a uniform distribution centered around 0. It is shown that the inverse relationship between productivity and evenness can be generated by varying the strength of the interaction between companies. When the strength increases, productivity increases and simultaneously the market evenness decreases. Conversely, when the strength decreases, productivity decreases and evenness increases. This strength can be interpreted as reflecting the looseness of monetary policy, thus providing a link between interest rates and market structure.

Wildfire immediately reduces nest and adult survival of greater sage-grouse

Wildfire events are becoming more frequent and severe on a global scale. Rising temperatures, prolonged drought, and the presence of pyrophytic invasive grasses are contributing to the degradation of native vegetation communities. Within the Great Basin region of the western U.S., increasing wildfire frequency is transforming the ecosystem toward a higher degree of homogeneity, one dominated by invasive annual grasses and declining landscape productivity. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) are a species of conservation concern that rely on large tracts of structurally and functionally diverse sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities. Using a 12-year (2008-2019) telemetry dataset, we documented immediate impacts of wildfire on demographic rates of a population of sage-grouse that were exposed to two large wildfire events (Virginia Mountains Fire Complex-2016; Long Valley Fire-2017) near the border of California and Nevada. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in demographic rates were accounted for using a Before-After Control-Impact Paired Series (BACIPS) study design. Results revealed a 40% reduction in adult survival and a 79% reduction in nest survival within areas impacted by wildfires. Our results indicate that wildfire has strong and immediate impacts to two key life stages of a sagebrush indicator species and underscores the importance of fire suppression and immediate restoration following wildfire events.

Seasonal Dynamics of Aphid Flights and Cotton Leafroll Dwarf Virus Spread in Alabama

Cotton leafroll dwarf virus (CLRDV) is an introduced Polerovirus (Family: Solemoviridae) of cotton, Gossypium hirsutum L., in the U.S. The only vector known to transmit this virus to cotton is the cotton aphid, Aphis gossypii Glover; however, there are seven other species of aphids (Hemiptera: Aphididae) reported to colonize cotton in the southeastern U.S.: Protaphis middletonii (Thomas), Rhopalosiphum rufiabdominale (Sasaki), Aphis craccivora Koch, Macrosiphum euphorbiae Thomas, Myzus persicae (Sulzer), Smythurodes betae Westwood, and Aphis fabae Scopoli. Little to no information is available on annual population dynamics of these species in the southeastern U.S. The timing of CLRDV spread to cotton plantings is also unknown. The objective of this study was to monitor the population dynamics of eight cotton-feeding aphid species concurrent with the spread of CLRDV at three different locations in Alabama. Aphids were monitored weekly for two years with yellow pan traps, and sentinel plants were deployed weekly to monitor CLRDV spread throughout the cotton-growing season. During the two years, most CLRDV spread at all locations occurred when A. gossypii was actively dispersing in the field. Early season spread at sites in south and central Alabama, when A. gossypii was not abundant, suggests additional aphid vectors are possible.

Temporal resolution of birth rate analysis in zooplankton and its implications for identifying strong interactions in ecology

Expanding on Haeckel's classical definition, ecology can be defined as the study of strong and weak interactions between the organism and the environment, hence the need for identifying strong interactions as major drivers of population and community dynamics. The solution to this problem is facilitated by the fact that the frequency distribution of interaction strengths is highly skewed, resulting in few or, according to Liebig's law of the minimum, just one strong interaction. However, a single strong interaction often remains elusive. One of the reasons may be that, due to the ever-present dynamics of ecological systems, a single strong interaction is likely to exist only on relatively short time intervals, so methods with sufficient temporal resolution are required. In this paper, we study the temporal resolution of contribution analysis of birth rate in zooplankton, a method to assess the relative strength of bottom-up (food) versus top-down (predation) effects. Birth rate is estimated by the Edmondson-Paloheimo model. Our test system is a population of the cladoceran Bosmina longirostris inhabiting a small northern lake with few planktivorous predators, and thus likely controlled by food. We find that the method's temporal resolution in detecting bottom-up effects corresponds well to the species' generation time, and the latter seems comparable to the lifetime of a single strong interaction. This enables one to capture a single strong interaction "on the fly," right during its time of existence. We suggest that this feature, the temporal resolution of about the lifetime of a single strong interaction, may be a generally desirable property for any method, not only the one studied here, intended to identify and assess strong interactions. Success in disentangling strong interactions in ecological communities, and thus solving one of the key issues in ecology, may critically depend on the temporal resolution of the methods used.

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions. The two correlations reflected either a relationship between adult survival prior to breeding on productivity, or a relationship between productivity and adult survival the subsequent year. Demographic rates and their correlations were estimated with an integrated population model, and their respective contributions to variation in population growth were calculated using a transient-life table response experiment. For all three populations, demographic correlations were positive at both time lags, although their strength differed. Given the different year-round distributions of these populations, this variation in the strength population-level demographic correlations points to environmental conditions as an important driver of demographic variation through life-history constraints. Consequently, the contributions of variances and correlations in demographic rates to population growth rates differed among puffin populations, which has implications for-particularly small-populations' viability under environmental change as positive correlations tend to reduce the stochastic population growth rate.

Cell facilitation promotes growth and survival under drug pressure in breast cancer

The interplay of positive and negative interactions between drug-sensitive and resistant cells influences the effectiveness of treatment in heterogeneous cancer cell populations. Here, we study interactions between estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer cell lineages that are sensitive and resistant to ribociclib-induced cyclin-dependent kinase 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) inhibition. In mono- and coculture, we find that sensitive cells grow and compete more effectively in the absence of treatment. During treatment with ribociclib, sensitive cells survive and proliferate better when grown together with resistant cells than when grown in monoculture, termed facilitation in ecology. Molecular, protein, and genomic analyses show that resistant cells increase metabolism and production of estradiol, a highly active estrogen metabolite, and increase estrogen signaling in sensitive cells to promote facilitation in coculture. Adding estradiol in monoculture provides sensitive cells with increased resistance to therapy and cancels facilitation in coculture. Under partial inhibition of estrogen signaling through low-dose endocrine therapy, estradiol supplied by resistant cells facilitates sensitive cell growth. However, a more complete blockade of estrogen signaling, through higher-dose endocrine therapy, diminished the facilitative growth of sensitive cells. Mathematical modeling quantifies the strength of competition and facilitation during CDK4/6 inhibition and predicts that blocking facilitation has the potential to control both resistant and sensitive cancer cell populations and inhibit the emergence of a refractory population during cell cycle therapy.

Smaller is better in competition for space

Body size is a prominent morphological trait which affects many aspects of an organism's life. Although large body size is generally considered to be advantageous, ecologists have wondered about the benefits of being small. Many studies of body size depend on the metabolic theory of ecology since body size is an irremovable part of an organism's energy budget. Body size is also a spatial quantity and therefore is linked to spatial processes. Here, I show that competition for space leads to a benefit of being small and hence selects for increasingly smaller body size. I build a deterministic population dynamics model and a stochastic model of birth, death and dispersal in a population of individuals with two different body sizes and show that only the smaller individuals survive. I also extend the population dynamics model to continuously varying body sizes and include a stabilizing natural selection for an intermediate body size. I find that the intrinsic advantage of smaller body size in competition for space can only be overcome when natural selection for a large body size is sufficiently strong. Overall, my results point to a novel benefit of being small.

Multiobjective optimization to assess dengue control costs using a climate-dependent epidemiological model

Arboviruses, diseases transmitted by arthropods, have become a significant challenge for public health managers. The World Health Organization highlights dengue as responsible for millions of infections worldwide annually. As there is no specific treatment for the disease and no free-of-charge vaccine for mass use in Brazil, the best option is the measures to combat the vector, the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Therefore, we proposed an epidemiological model dependent on temperature, precipitation, and humidity, considering symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue infections. Through computer simulations, we aimed to minimize the amount of insecticides and the social cost demanded to treat patients. We proposed a case study in which our model is fitted with real data from symptomatic dengue-infected humans in an epidemic year in a Brazilian city. Our multiobjective optimization model considers an additional control using larvicide, adulticide, and ultra-low volume spraying. The work's main contribution is studying the monetary cost of the actions to combat the vector demand versus the hospital cost per confirmed infected, comparing approaches with and without additional control. Results showed that the additional vector control measures are cheaper than the hospital treatment without the vector control would be.

A collaborative and near-comprehensive North Pacific humpback whale photo-ID dataset

We present an ocean-basin-scale dataset that includes tail fluke photographic identification (photo-ID) and encounter data for most living individual humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the North Pacific Ocean. The dataset was built through a broad collaboration combining 39 separate curated photo-ID catalogs, supplemented with community science data. Data from throughout the North Pacific were aggregated into 13 regions, including six breeding regions, six feeding regions, and one migratory corridor. All images were compared with minimal pre-processing using a recently developed image recognition algorithm based on machine learning through artificial intelligence; this system is capable of rapidly detecting matches between individuals with an estimated 97-99% accuracy. For the 2001-2021 study period, a total of 27,956 unique individuals were documented in 157,350 encounters. Each individual was encountered, on average, in 5.6 sampling periods (i.e., breeding and feeding seasons), with an annual average of 87% of whales encountered in more than one season. The combined dataset and image recognition tool represents a living and accessible resource for collaborative, basin-wide studies of a keystone marine mammal in a time of rapid ecological change.

Explaining population booms and busts in Mid-Holocene Europe

Archaeological evidence suggests that the population dynamics of Mid-Holocene (Late Mesolithic to Initial Bronze Age, ca. 7000-3000 BCE) Europe are characterized by recurrent booms and busts of regional settlement and occupation density. These boom-bust patterns are documented in the temporal distribution of 14C dates and in archaeological settlement data from regional studies. We test two competing hypotheses attempting to explain these dynamics: climate forcing and social dynamics leading to inter-group conflict. Using the framework of spatially-explicit agent-based models, we translated these hypotheses into a suite of explicit computational models, derived quantitative predictions for population fluctuations, and compared these predictions to data. We demonstrate that climate variation during the European Mid-Holocene is unable to explain the quantitative features (average periodicities and amplitudes) of observed boom-bust dynamics. In contrast, scenarios with social dynamics encompassing density-dependent conflict produce population patterns with time scales and amplitudes similar to those observed in the data. These results suggest that social processes, including violent conflict, played a crucial role in the shaping of population dynamics of European Mid-Holocene societies.

Management and conservation implications of cryptic population substructure for two commercially exploited fishes (Merluccius spp.) in southern Africa

Genomic information can aid in the establishment of sustainable management plans for commercially exploited marine fishes, aiding in the long-term conservation of these resources. The southern African hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) are commercially valuable demersal fishes with similar distribution ranges but exhibiting contrasting life histories. Using a comparative framework based on Pool-Seq genome-wide SNP data, we investigated whether the evolutionary processes that shaped extant patterns of diversity and divergence are shared among these two congeneric fishes, or unique to each one. Our findings revealed that M. capensis and M. paradoxus show similar levels of genome-wide diversity, despite different census sizes and life-history features. In addition, M. capensis shows three highly structured geographic populations across the Benguela Current region (one in the northern Benguela and two in the southern Benguela), with no consistent genome-environment associations detected. In contrast, although population structure and outlier analyses suggested panmixia for M. paradoxus, reconstruction of its demographic history suggested the presence of an Atlantic-Indian Ocean subtle substructuring pattern. Therefore, it appears that M. paradoxus might be composed by two highly connected populations, one in the Atlantic and one in the southwest Indian Ocean. The reported similar low levels of genomic diversity, as well as newly discovered genetically distinct populations in both hake species can thus assist in informing and improving conservation and management plans for the commercially important southern African Merluccius.

Frequent pulse disturbances shape resistance and resilience in tropical marine microbial communities

The Johor Strait separates the island of Singapore from Peninsular Malaysia. A 1-kilometer causeway built in the early 1920s in the middle of the strait effectively blocks water flowing to/from either side, resulting in low water turnover rates and build-up of nutrients in the inner Strait. We have previously shown that short-term rather than seasonal environmental changes influence microbial community composition in the Johor Strait. Here, we present a temporally-intensive study that uncovers the factors keeping the microbial populations in check. We sampled the surface water at four sites in the inner Eastern Johor Strait every other day for two months, while measuring various water quality parameters, and analysed 16S amplicon sequences and flow-cytometric counts. We discovered that microbial community succession revolves around a common stable state resulting from frequent pulse disturbances. Among these, sporadic riverine freshwater input and regular tidal currents influence bottom-up controls including the availability of the limiting nutrient nitrogen and its biological release in readily available forms. From the top-down, marine viruses and predatory bacteria limit the proliferation of microbes in the water. Harmful algal blooms, which have been observed historically in these waters, may occur only when there are simultaneous gaps in the top-down and bottom-up controls. This study gains insight into complex interactions between multiple factors contributing to a low-resistance but high-resilience microbial community and speculate about rare events that could lead to the occurrence of an algal bloom.

Synergism of a mixed diet of Myzus persicae and egg of Ephestia kuehniella on fitness of the predator Nabis stenoferus

Nabis stenoferus is a zoophytophagous predator that lives in grasslands around agricultural fields. It is a candidate biological control agent for use via augmentation or conservation. To find a suitable food source for mass-rearing and to better understand this predator's biology, we compared the life history characteristics of N. stenoferus under the three different diets: aphids only (Myzus persicae), moth eggs only (Ephestia kuehniella), or a mixed diet of aphids and moth eggs. Interestingly, when only aphids were supplied, N. stenoferus developed to the adult stage but lacked normal levels of fecundity. There was a significant synergism of the mixed diet on N. stenoferus fitness in both the immature and adult stages, i.e., a 13% reduction in the nymphal developmental period and an 87.3-fold increase in fecundity, compared to aphid-only diet. Furthermore, the intrinsic rate of increase was significantly higher for the mixed diet (0.139) than either aphids only (0.022) or moth eggs only (0.097). These results show that M. persicae alone is not a complete diet for the mass-rearing of N. stenoferus, whereas this aphid can be a supplementary food when combined with E. kuehniella eggs. Implications and applications of these findings for biological control are discussed.

Recovery of insular seabird populations years after rodent eradication

Seabirds have been particularly affected by invasive non-native species, which has led to the implementation of numerous eradication campaigns for the conservation of these keystone and highly vulnerable species. Although the benefits of eradication of invasive non-native species for seabird conservation have been demonstrated, the recovery kinetics of different seabird populations on islands after eradication remains poorly evaluated. We conducted long-term monitoring of the number of breeding pairs of seven seabird species on a small atoll, Surprise Island, New Caledonia (southwestern tropical Pacific). Marine avifauna of the island were surveyed yearly 4 years before to 4 years after rodent eradication (conducted in 2005), and we conducted multiple one-time surveys from ∼10 years before and ∼15 years after eradication. We sought to determine how different seabird species responded to the eradication of invasive rodents in an insular environment. Three species responded positively (two- to 10-fold increase in population size) to eradication with differences in lag time and sensitivity. The number of breeding pairs increased (effect sizes = 0.49-0.95 and 0.35-0.52) for two species over 4 years post-eradication due to immigration. One species had a longer (at least 5 years) response time than all others; breeding pairs increased for over 10 years after eradication. Long-term sampling was necessary to observe the responses of the seabird populations on the island because of the delayed response of a species to eradication not visible in the first years after eradication. Our results confirmed the positive effects of eradication of invasive non-native species on seabirds and emphasize the importance of mid- and long-term pre- and posteradication surveys to decipher the mechanisms of seabird recovery and confirm the benefits of eradication for conservation purposes.

MOSAIC - A Unified Trait Database to Complement Structured Population Models

Despite exponential growth in ecological data availability, broader interoperability amongst datasets is needed to unlock the potential of open access. Our understanding of the interface of demography and functional traits is well-positioned to benefit from such interoperability. Here, we introduce MOSAIC, an open-access trait database that unlocks the demographic potential stored in the COMADRE, COMPADRE, and PADRINO open-access databases. MOSAIC data were digitised and curated through a combination of existing datasets and new trait records sourced from primary literature. In its first release, MOSAIC (v. 1.0.0) includes 14 trait fields for 300 animal and plant species: biomass, height, growth determination, regeneration, sexual dimorphism, mating system, hermaphrodism, sequential hermaphrodism, dispersal capacity, type of dispersal, mode of dispersal, dispersal classes, volancy, and aquatic habitat dependency. MOSAIC includes species-level phylogenies for 1,359 species and population-specific climate data. We identify how database integration can improve our understanding of traits well-quantified in existing repositories and those that are poorly quantified (e.g., growth determination, modularity). MOSAIC highlights emerging challenges associated with standardising databases and demographic measures.

Waterfowl Wintering in Cities of Temperate Climatic Zone and Its Shaping Factors

The dynamics of the population size and species diversity of wintering waterfowl was for the first time studied in 30 cities of Russia over eight years. The total population size increased by 35%. The species diversity was found to reach 32 species in total. The mallard Anas platyrhynchos dominated in all 30 cities. The cities grouped to form seven clusters significantly differing from each other by the total parameter set. The geographical location and climatic characteristics of a city are the main environmental conditions for both people and birds. The variance of the wintering waterfowl population size was determined to the extent of 93% by the area and human population size of the city; and 62% of the variance in species number was determined by the longitude, the average January temperature, and the human population size of the city (p < 0.001). The population size and species number of birds correlated with the "age" of the wintering place (p < 0.05). If the urbanization rate continues the same, the population size and species diversity are expected to grow further.

Effect of kelp gull harassment on southern right whale calf survival: a long-term capture-recapture analysis

Kelp gulls (Larus dominicanus) commonly feed on the skin and blubber of surfacing southern right whales (SRW, Eubalaena australis) in the near shore waters of Península Valdés (PV), Argentina. Mothers and especially calves respond to gull attacks by changing their swimming speeds, resting postures and overall behaviour. Gull-inflicted wounds per calf have increased markedly since the mid-1990s. Unusually high mortality of young calves occurred locally after 2003, and increasing evidence points to gull harassment as a factor contributing to the excess deaths. After leaving PV, calves undertake a long migration with their mothers to summer feeding areas; their health during this strenuous exertion is likely to affect their probabilities of first-year survival. To explore the effects of gull-inflicted wounds on calf survival, we analysed 44 capture-recapture observations between 1974 and 2017, for 597 whales photo-identified in their years of birth between 1974 and 2011. We found a marked decrease in first-year survival associated with an increase in wound severity over time. Our analysis supports recent studies indicating that gull harassment at PV may impact SRW population dynamics.

Habitat fragmentation reduces survival and drives source-sink dynamics for a large carnivore

Rigorous understanding of how environmental conditions impact population dynamics is essential for species conservation, especially in mixed-use landscapes where source-sink dynamics may be at play. Conservation of large carnivore populations in fragmented, human-dominated landscapes is critical for their long-term persistence. However, living in human-dominated landscapes comes with myriad costs, including direct anthropogenic mortality and sublethal energetic costs. How these costs impact individual fitness and population dynamics are not fully understood, partly due to the difficulty in collecting long-term demographic data for these species. Here, we analyzed an 11-year dataset on puma (Puma concolor) space use, mortality, and reproduction in the Santa Cruz Mountains, California, USA, to quantify how living in a fragmented landscape impacts individual survival and population dynamics. Long-term exposure to housing density drove mortality risk for female pumas, resulting in an 18-percentage-point reduction in annual survival for females in exurban versus remote areas. While the overall population growth rate appeared stable, reduced female survival in more developed areas resulted in source-sink dynamics across the study area, with 42.1% of the Santa Cruz Mountains exhibiting estimated population growth rates <1. Since habitat selection is often used as a proxy for habitat quality, we also assessed whether puma habitat selection predicted source and sink areas. Patterns of daytime puma habitat selection predicted source areas, while time-of-day-independent habitat selection performed less well as a proxy. These results illuminate the individual- and population-level consequences of habitat fragmentation for large carnivores, illustrating that habitat fragmentation can produce source-sink dynamics that may not be apparent from other metrics of habitat quality. Locally, conserving high-quality source habitat within the Santa Cruz Mountains is necessary to support long-term puma population persistence. More broadly, source-sink dynamics may at play for other carnivore populations in similar fragmented systems, and linking landscape conditions to population dynamics is essential for effective conservation. Caution should be used in inferring habitat quality from habitat selection alone, but these results shed light on metrics of selection that may be better or worse proxies to identify source areas for large carnivores.

Understanding the state-dependent impact of species correlated responses on community sensitivity to perturbations

Understanding how communities respond to perturbations requires us to consider not only changes in the abundance of individual species, but also correlated changes that can emerge through interspecific effects. However, our knowledge of this phenomenon is mostly constrained to situations where interspecific effects are fixed. Here, we introduce a framework to disentangle the impact of species correlated responses on community sensitivity to perturbations when interspecific effects change over time due to cyclic or chaotic population dynamics. We partition the volume expansion rate of perturbed abundances (community sensitivity) into contributions of individual species and of species correlated responses by converting the time-varying Jacobian matrix containing interspecific effects into a time-varying covariance matrix. Using population dynamics models, we demonstrate that species correlated responses change considerably across time and continuously alternate between reducing and having no impact on community sensitivity. Importantly, these alternating impacts depend on the abundance of particular species and can be detected even from noisy time series. We showcase our framework using two experimental predator-prey time series and find that the impact of species correlated responses is modulated by prey abundance-as theoretically expected. Our results provide new insights into how and when species interactions can dampen community sensitivity when abundances fluctuate over time. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Increased importance of cool-water fish at high latitudes emerges from individual-level responses to warming

High latitude ecosystems are experiencing the most rapid warming on earth, expected to trigger a diverse array of ecological responses. Climate warming affects the ecophysiology of fish, and fish close to the cold end of their thermal distribution are expected to increase somatic growth from increased temperatures and a prolonged growth season, which in turn affects maturation schedules, reproduction, and survival, boosting population growth. Accordingly, fish species living in ecosystems close to their northern range edge should increase in relative abundance and importance, and possibly displace cold-water adapted species. We aim to document whether and how population-level effects of warming are mediated by individual-level responses to increased temperatures, shift community structure, and composition in high latitude ecosystems. We studied 11 cool-water adapted perch populations in communities dominated by cold-water adapted species (whitefish, burbot, and charr) to investigate changes in the relative importance of the cool-water perch during the last 30 years of rapid warming in high latitude lakes. In addition, we studied the individual-level responses to warming to clarify the potential mechanisms underlying the population effects. Our long-term series (1991-2020) reveal a marked increase in numerical importance of the cool-water fish species, perch, in ten out of eleven populations, and in most fish communities perch is now dominant. Moreover, we show that climate warming affects population-level processes via direct and indirect temperature effects on individuals. Specifically, the increase in abundance arises from increased recruitment, faster juvenile growth, and ensuing earlier maturation, all boosted by climate warming. The speed and magnitude of the response to warming in these high latitude fish communities strongly suggest that cold-water fish will be displaced by fish adapted to warmer water. Consequently, management should focus on climate adaptation limiting future introductions and invasions of cool-water fish and mitigating harvesting pressure on cold-water fish.

A big data-model integration approach for predicting epizootics and population recovery in a keystone species

Infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global health and biodiversity. Yet, predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics remains challenging. Disease outbreaks result from complex nonlinear interactions among a large collection of variables that rarely adhere to the assumptions of parametric regression modeling. We adopted a nonparametric machine learning approach to model wildlife epizootics and population recovery, using the disease system of colonial black-tailed prairie dogs (BTPD, Cynomys ludovicianus) and sylvatic plague as an example. We synthesized colony data between 2001 and 2020 from eight USDA Forest Service National Grasslands across the range of BTPDs in central North America. We then modeled extinctions due to plague and colony recovery of BTPDs in relation to complex interactions among climate, topoedaphic variables, colony characteristics, and disease history. Extinctions due to plague occurred more frequently when BTPD colonies were spatially clustered, in closer proximity to colonies decimated by plague during the previous year, following cooler than average temperatures the previous summer, and when wetter winter/springs were preceded by drier summers/falls. Rigorous cross-validations and spatial predictions indicated that our final models predicted plague outbreaks and colony recovery in BTPD with high accuracy (e.g., AUC generally >0.80). Thus, these spatially explicit models can reliably predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics and subsequent population recovery in a highly complex host-pathogen system. Our models can be used to support strategic management planning (e.g., plague mitigation) to optimize benefits of this keystone species to associated wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. This optimization can reduce conflicts among different landowners and resource managers, as well as economic losses to the ranching industry. More broadly, our big data-model integration approach provides a general framework for spatially explicit forecasting of disease-induced population fluctuations for use in natural resource management decision-making.

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.

Population structure and phylogeography of three closely related tree peonies

Paeonia decomposita, Paeonia rotundiloba, and Paeonia rockii are three closely related species of Sect. Moutan is distributed in the montane area of the Eastern Hengduan Mountain region. Understanding the population history of these three tree peony species could contribute to unraveling the evolutionary patterns of undergrowth species in this hotspot area. We used one nuclear DNA marker (internal transcribed spacer region, ITS) and two chloroplast DNA markers (matK, ycf1) to reconstruct the phylogeographic pattern of the populations. In total, 228 individuals from 17 populations of the three species were analyzed in this study. Three nuclear clades (Clade I - Clade III) and four maternal clades (Clade A - Clade D) were reconstructed. Molecular dating suggested that young lineages diverged during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene, younger than the uplift of the Hengduan Mountains but older than the last glacial maximum (LGM). Significant population and phylogeographic structures were detected at both markers. Furthermore, the populations of these tree peonies were overall at equilibrium during the climatic oscillations of the Pleistocene. The simulated palaeoranges of the three species during the LGM period mostly overlapped, which could have led to cross-breeding events. We propose an evolutionary scenario in which mountain orogenesis around the Hengduan Mountain area triggered parapatric isolation between maternal lineages of tree peonies. Subsequent climatic fluctuations drove migration and range recontact of these populations along the valleys. This detailed evolutionary history provides new insights into the phylogeographic pattern of species from mountain-valley systems.

Ancient Mitogenomes Reveal Stable Genetic Continuity of the Holocene Serows

As one of the remaining species of Caprinae only found in Asia, serows (Capricornis) and their classification and conservation have received increasing attention in recent years. However, their evolutionary history and population dynamics are not yet clear. To shed light on these topics, we report the first near-complete ancient mitochondrial genomes from two serow sub-fossils (CADG839 and CADG946) dating to 8860 ± 30 years and 2450 ± 30 years, and incorporate the newly obtained mitogenomes into the dataset of living serows (18 complete mitochondrial genomes drawn from National Center for Biotechnology Information, NCBI) to investigate their relationships and evolution. Phylogenetic results support four clades of serows that can be further divided into five subclades, indicating higher genetic diversity than previously thought. Notably, our two ancient samples do not form a separate branch but belong to Capricornis sumatraensis clade A together with modern individuals, which suggests genetic continuity between ancient and modern serows. Furthermore, our results suggest that the maternal divergences of serows occurred at the beginning of the Pleistocene. Bayesian estimation indicates that the first divergence among all serows happened approximately 2.37 Ma (95% highest posterior density, HPD: 2.74-2.02 Ma) when Japanese serow (Capricornis crispus) appeared, while the last divergence occurred within the Sumatran serow (C. sumatraensis clade A and B) around 0.37-0.25 Ma. Additionally, we found the effective maternal population size of C. sumatraensis increased around 225-160 and 90-50 ka, then remained stable since 50 ka. Overall, our study provides new insights into serow phylogeny and evolutionary history.

Estimating Wolf Population Size and Dynamics by Field Monitoring and Demographic Models: Implications for Management and Conservation

We estimated the current size and dynamics of the wolf population in Tuscany and investigated the trends and demographic drivers of population changes. Estimates were obtained by two different approaches: (i) mixed-technique field monitoring (from 2014 to 2016) that found the minimum observed pack number and estimated population size, and (ii) an individual-based model (run by Vortex software v. 10.3.8.0) with demographic inputs derived from a local intensive study area and historic data on population size. Field monitoring showed a minimum population size of 558 wolves (SE = 12.005) in 2016, with a density of 2.74 individuals/100 km2. The population model described an increasing trend with an average annual rate of increase λ = 1.075 (SE = 0.014), an estimated population size of about 882 individuals (SE = 9.397) in 2016, and a density of 4.29 wolves/100 km2. Previously published estimates of wolf population were as low as 56.2% compared to our field monitoring estimation and 34.6% in comparison to our model estimation. We conducted sensitivity tests to analyze the key parameters driving population changes based on juvenile and adult mortality rates, female breeding success, and litter size. Mortality rates played a major role in determining intrinsic growth rate changes, with adult mortality accounting for 62.5% of the total variance explained by the four parameters. Juvenile mortality was responsible for 35.8% of the variance, while female breeding success and litter size had weak or negligible effects. We concluded that reliable estimates of population abundance and a deeper understanding of the role of different demographic parameters in determining population dynamics are crucial to define and carry out appropriate conservation and management strategies to address human-wildlife conflicts.

Controlling the Mean Time to Extinction in Populations of Bacteria

Populations of ecological systems generally have demographic fluctuations due to birth and death processes. At the same time, they are exposed to changing environments. We studied populations composed of two phenotypes of bacteria and analyzed the impact that both types of fluctuations have on the mean time to extinction of the entire population if extinction is the final fate. Our results are based on Gillespie simulations and on the WKB approach applied to classical stochastic systems, here in certain limiting cases. As a function of the frequency of environmental changes, we observe a non-monotonic dependence of the mean time to extinction. Its dependencies on other system parameters are also explored. This allows the control of the mean time to extinction to be as large or as small as possible, depending on whether extinction should be avoided or is desired from the perspective of bacteria or the perspective of hosts to which the bacteria are deleterious.

Effects of far-red light on tritrophic interactions between the two-spotted spider mite (Tetranychus urticae) and the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis on tomato

BACKGROUND

The use of light-emitting diode (LED) lights in horticulture allows growers to adjust the light spectrum to optimize crop production and quality. However, changes in light quality can also influence plant-arthropod interactions, with possible consequences for pest management. The addition of far-red light has been shown to interfere with plant immunity, thereby increasing plant susceptibility to biotic stress and increasing pest performance. Far-red light also influences plant emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and might thus influence tritrophic interactions with biological control agents. We investigated how far-red light influences the VOC-mediated attraction of the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis to tomato plants infested with Tetranychus urticae, and its ability to control T. urticae populations.

RESULTS

Far-red light significantly influences herbivore-induced VOC emissions of tomato plants, characterized by a change in relative abundance of terpenoids, but this did not influence the attraction of P. persimilis to herbivore-induced plants. Supplemental far-red light led to an increased population growth of T. urticae and increased numbers of P. persimilis. This resulted in a stronger suppression of T. urticae populations under supplemental far-red light, to similar T. urticae numbers as in control conditions without supplemental far-red light.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that supplemental far-red light can change herbivore-induced VOC emissions but does not interfere with the attraction of the predator P. persimilis. Moreover, far-red light stimulates biological control of spider mites in glasshouse tomatoes due to increased population build-up of the biocontrol agent. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Integrating multiple sign types to improve occupancy estimation for inconspicuous species

Standard occupancy models enable unbiased estimation of occupancy by accounting for observation errors such as missed detections (false negatives) and, less commonly, incorrect detections (false positives). Occupancy models are fitted to data from repeated site visits in which surveyors record evidence of species presence. Use of indirect sign (e.g., scat, tracks) as evidence of presence can vastly improve survey efficiency for inconspicuous species but can also introduce additional sources of error. We developed a "multi-sign" occupancy approach to model the detection process separately for unique sign types and used this method to improve estimates of occupancy dynamics for an inconspicuous species, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We investigated how estimates of pika occupancy and environmental drivers differed under four increasingly realistic representations of the observation process: (1) perfect detection (commonly assumed for modeling pika occupancy), (2) standard occupancy model (single observation process without possibility of false detection), (3) multi-sign with no false detections (non-false positive model), and (4) multi-sign with false detections (full model). For the multi-sign occupancy models, we modeled the detection of each sign type (fresh scat, fresh haypiles, pika calls, and pika sightings) separately as a function of climatic and environmental covariates. Estimates of occupancy processes and inferences about environmental drivers were sensitive to different detection models. Simplified representations of the detection processes generally resulted in higher occupancy estimates and higher turnover rates than the full multi-sign model. Environmental drivers also varied in their influence on occupancy models, where (e.g.) forb cover was estimated to more strongly influence occupancy in the full multi-sign model than the simpler models. As has been reported previously in other contexts, unmodeled heterogeneity in the observation process can lead to biases in occupancy processes and uncertainty in the relationships between occupancy and environmental covariates. Overall, our multi-sign approach to dynamic occupancy modeling, which accounts for spatio-temporal variation in reliability among sign types, has strong potential to generate more realistic estimates of occupancy dynamics for inconspicuous species.

Generation and applications of simulated datasets to integrate social network and demographic analyses

Social networks are tied to population dynamics; interactions are driven by population density and demographic structure, while social relationships can be key determinants of survival and reproductive success. However, difficulties integrating models used in demography and network analysis have limited research at this interface. We introduce the R package genNetDem for simulating integrated network-demographic datasets. It can be used to create longitudinal social network and/or capture-recapture datasets with known properties. It incorporates the ability to generate populations and their social networks, generate grouping events using these networks, simulate social network effects on individual survival, and flexibly sample these longitudinal datasets of social associations. By generating co-capture data with known statistical relationships, it provides functionality for methodological research. We demonstrate its use with case studies testing how imputation and sampling design influence the success of adding network traits to conventional Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models. We show that incorporating social network effects into CJS models generates qualitatively accurate results, but with downward-biased parameter estimates when network position influences survival. Biases are greater when fewer interactions are sampled or fewer individuals observed in each interaction. While our results indicate the potential of incorporating social effects within demographic models, they show that imputing missing network measures alone is insufficient to accurately estimate social effects on survival, pointing to the importance of incorporating network imputation approaches. genNetDem provides a flexible tool to aid these methodological advancements and help researchers testing other sampling considerations in social network studies.

Life-history responses to temperature and seasonality mediate ectotherm consumer-resource dynamics under climate warming

Climate warming is altering life cycles of ectotherms by advancing phenology and decreasing generation times. Theoretical models provide powerful tools to investigate these effects of climate warming on consumer-resource population dynamics. Yet, existing theory primarily considers organisms with simplified life histories in constant temperature environments, making it difficult to predict how warming will affect organisms with complex life cycles in seasonal environments. We develop a size-structured consumer-resource model with seasonal temperature dependence, parameterized for a freshwater insect consuming zooplankton. We simulate how climate warming in a seasonal environment could alter a key life-history trait of the consumer, number of generations per year, mediating responses of consumer-resource population sizes and consumer persistence. We find that, with warming, consumer population sizes increase through multiple mechanisms. First, warming decreases generation times by increasing rates of resource ingestion and growth and/or lengthening the growing season. Second, these life-history changes shorten the juvenile stage, increasing the number of emerging adults and population-level reproduction. Unstructured models with similar assumptions found that warming destabilized consumer-resource dynamics. By contrast, our size-structured model predicts stability and consumer persistence. Our study suggests that, in seasonal environments experiencing climate warming, life-history changes that lead to shorter generation times could delay population extinctions.

The Afrotropical breeding grounds of the Palearctic-African migratory painted lady butterflies (Vanessa cardui)

Migratory insects are key players in ecosystem functioning and services, but their spatiotemporal distributions are typically poorly known. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) may be used to predict species seasonal distributions, but the resulting hypotheses should eventually be validated by field data. The painted lady butterfly (Vanessa cardui) performs multigenerational migrations between Europe and Africa and has become a model species for insect movement ecology. While the annual migration cycle of this species is well understood for Europe and northernmost Africa, it is still unknown where most individuals spend the winter. Through ENM, we previously predicted suitable breeding grounds in the subhumid regions near the tropics between November and February. In this work, we assess the suitability of these predictions through i) extensive field surveys and ii) two-year monitoring in six countries: a large-scale monitoring scheme to study butterfly migration in Africa. We document new breeding locations, year-round phenological information, and hostplant use. Field observations were nearly always predicted with high probability by the previous ENM, and monitoring demonstrated the influence of the precipitation seasonality regime on migratory phenology. Using the updated dataset, we built a refined ENM for the Palearctic-African range of V. cardui. We confirm the relevance of the Afrotropical region and document the missing natural history pieces of the longest migratory cycle described in butterflies.

Minimal Surviving Inoculum in Collective Antibiotic Resistance

A common strategy used by bacteria to resist antibiotics is enzymatic degradation or modification. This reduces the antibiotic threat in the environment and is therefore potentially a collective mechanism that also enhances the survival of nearby cells. Collective resistance is of clinical significance, yet a quantitative understanding at the population level is still incomplete. Here, we develop a general theoretical framework of collective resistance by antibiotic degradation. Our modeling study reveals that population survival crucially depends on the ratio of timescales of two processes: the rates of population death and antibiotic removal. However, it is insensitive to molecular, biological, and kinetic details of the underlying processes that give rise to these timescales. Another important aspect of antibiotic degradation is the degree of cooperativity, related to the permeability of the cell wall to antibiotics and enzymes. These observations motivate a coarse-grained, phenomenological model, with two compound parameters representing the population's race to survival and single-cell effective resistance. We propose a simple experimental assay to measure the dose-dependent minimal surviving inoculum and apply it to Escherichia coli expressing several types of β-lactamase. Experimental data analyzed within the theoretical framework corroborate it with good agreement. Our simple model may serve as a reference for more complex situations, such as heterogeneous bacterial communities. IMPORTANCE Collective resistance occurs when bacteria work together to decrease the concentration of antibiotics in their environment, for example, by actively breaking down or modifying them. This can help bacteria survive by reducing the effective antibiotic concentration below their threshold for growth. In this study, we used mathematical modeling to examine the factors that influence collective resistance and to develop a framework to understand the minimum population size needed to survive a given initial antibiotic concentration. Our work helps to identify generic mechanism-independent parameters that can be derived from population data and identifies combinations of parameters that play a role in collective resistance. Specifically, it highlights the relative timescales involved in the survival of populations that inactivate antibiotics, as well as the levels of cooperation versus privatization. The results of this study contribute to our understanding of population-level effects on antibiotic resistance and may inform the design of antibiotic therapies.

Destabilizing effect of climate change on the persistence of a short-lived primate

Seasonal tropical environments are among those regions that are the most affected by shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes under climate change, with potentially severe consequences for wildlife population persistence. This persistence is ultimately determined by complex demographic responses to multiple climatic drivers, yet these complexities have been little explored in tropical mammals. We use long-term, individual-based demographic data (1994 to 2020) from a short-lived primate in western Madagascar, the gray mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus), to investigate the demographic drivers of population persistence under observed shifts in seasonal temperature and rainfall. While rainfall during the wet season has been declining over the years, dry season temperatures have been increasing, with these trends projected to continue. These environmental changes resulted in lower survival and higher recruitment rates over time for gray mouse lemurs. Although the contrasting changes have prevented the study population from collapsing, the resulting increase in life-history speed has destabilized an otherwise stable population. Population projections under more recent rainfall and temperature levels predict an increase in population fluctuations and a corresponding increase in the extinction risk over the next five decades. Our analyses show that a relatively short-lived mammal with high reproductive output, representing a life history that is expected to closely track changes in its environment, can nonetheless be threatened by climate change.

Biocontrol of snail-borne parasites with the glossiphoniid leech, Helobdella austinensis

Parasites in which freshwater snails are intermediate hosts pose a serious threat to human health worldwide. We show here that freshwater snails can potentially be controlled by leech predation; in principle, this approach could significantly reduce snail-borne parasitic diseases (SBPDs). Specifically, glossiphoniid leeches, Helobdella austinensis and congener species, consume freshwater snails indiscriminately, while other common leeches do not. A single adult H. austenensis, for example, can consume up to its weight in snails, e.g. Physella acuta, per day. Our predator-prey models suggest that snail populations could be eliminated in relatively short time periods (approximately six months) using a leech biocontrol approach. This could have considerable impact on global SBPDs by breaking the intermediate host life cycle.

Warming increases survival and asexual fitness in a facultatively sexual freshwater cnidarian with winter diapause

Temperature is a key abiotic factor controlling population dynamics. In facultatively sexual animals inhabiting the temperate zone, temperature can regulate the switch between asexual and sexual modes of reproduction, initiates growth or dormancy, and acts together with photoperiod to mediate seasonal physiological transitions. Increasing temperature due to recent global warming is likely to disrupt population dynamics of facultatively sexual animals because of the strong temperature dependence of multiple fitness components. However, the fitness consequences of warming in these animals are still poorly understood. This is unfortunate since facultatively sexual animals-through their ability for asexual reproduction resulting in quick population growth and sexual reproduction enabling long-term persistence-are key components of freshwater ecosystems. Here, I studied the fitness effects of warming in Hydra oligactis, a freshwater cnidarian that reproduces asexually throughout most of the year but switches to sexual reproduction under decreasing temperatures. I exposed hydra polyps to a simulated short summer heatwave or long-term elevated winter temperature. Since sexual development in this species is dependent on low temperature, I predicted reduced sexual investment (gonad production) and elevated asexual fitness (budding) in polyps exposed to higher temperatures. The results show a complex effect of warming on sexual fitness: While gonad number decreased in response to warming, both male and female polyps exposed to high winter temperature were capable of multiple rounds of gamete production. Asexual reproduction and survival rate, on the contrary, clearly increased in response to higher temperature, especially in males. These results predict increased population growth of H. oligactis in temperate freshwater habitats, which will likely affect the population dynamics of its main prey (freshwater zooplankton), and through that, the whole aquatic ecosystem.