Bayesian accelerated failure time model for space-time dependency in a geographically augmented survival model

In this paper, we extend the spatially explicit survival model for small area cancer data by allowing dependency between space and time and using accelerated failure time models. Spatial dependency is modeled directly in the definition of the survival, density, and hazard functions. The models are developed in the context of county level aggregated data. Two cases are considered: the first assumes that the spatial and temporal distributions are independent; the second allows for dependency between the spatial and temporal components. We apply the models to prostate cancer data from the Louisiana SEER cancer registry.

Relationship Between Birth Weight and the Double Product in Childhood, Adolescence, and Adulthood (from the Bogalusa Heart Study)

Low birth weight is associated with cardiovascular disease and its risk factors, including heart rate and blood pressure. Therefore, we examined the hypothesis that birth weight is related to blood pressure-heart rate product (double product, DP), an index of oxygen consumption and workload of the heart, at different ages. Heart rate at rest, blood pressure at rest, and birth weight data were available in 2,340 children (4 to 11 years), 1,621 adolescents (12 to 19 years), and 2,315 adults (20 to 52 years) from the Bogalusa Heart Study (total n = 6,276). After adjustment for age, sex, race, and body mass index, gestational age-adjusted birth weight was inversely associated with DP, with per 100-g decrease in birth weight associated with an increase of 12.8, 22.9, and 23.2 beats/min × mmHg in DP in children (p = 0.016), adolescents (p = 0.0007), and adults (p = 0.0006), respectively. An amplifying trend of the association with age was observed in the total sample (p = 0.002). In conclusion, birth weight is associated with increased DP beginning in childhood, which may partly mediate the association between low birth weight and increased cardiovascular risk later in life.

Economic and statistical perspectives on traffic safety in Louisiana, 2005-2015

INTRODUCTION

This study examine and applies recent empirical evidence from Mississippi and Alabama on fatal crashes and its relationship with gasoline prices and alcohol consumptions using the Louisiana Crash Data Reports between January 2005 and December 2015.

METHOD

The negative binomial models is the preferred specification for the Louisiana Crash Data. The marginal effects and related elasticities were calculated to facilitate the interpretation of the results.

RESULTS

Findings suggest that higher gasoline prices reduce fatalities among young drivers. A fewer number of young drivers on the roads are believed to reduce the likelihood of fatal crashes. Underage drinking is still prominent in Louisiana. Extreme temperatures are positively associated with youth and other types of fatal crashes.

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS

This study highlights a huge toll on society in terms of social and economic costs, wealth destruction, and unfulfilled potential of the deceased or incapacitated.

Individual-level exposure to disaster, neighborhood environmental characteristics, and their independent and combined associations with depressive symptoms in women

PURPOSE

The severity of the stress response to experiencing disaster depends on individual exposure and background stress prior to the event. To date, there is limited research on the interaction between neighborhood environmental stress and experiencing an oil spill, and their effects on depression. The objective of the current study was to assess if the association between exposure to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (DHOS) and depressive symptoms varied by neighborhood characteristics.

METHODS

US Census data (2010) and longitudinal data collected in two waves (2012-2014 and 2014-2016) from female residents [N = 889 (Wave I), 737 (Wave II)] of an area highly affected by the DHOS were analyzed. Multilevel and individual-level negative binomial regressions were performed to estimate associations with depressive symptoms in both waves. An interaction term was included to estimate effect modification of the association between DHOS exposure and depressive symptoms by neighborhood characteristics. Generalized estimating equations were applied to the negative binomial regression testing longitudinal associations.

RESULTS

Census tract-level neighborhood characteristics were not associated with depressive symptoms. Exposure to the DHOS and neighborhood physical disorder were associated with depressive symptoms cross-sectionally. There was no evidence of effect modification; however, physical/environmental exposure to the DHOS was associated with increased depressive symptoms only among women living in areas with physical disorder. Exposure to the DHOS remained associated with depressive symptoms over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support the enduring consequences of disaster exposure on depressive symptoms in women and identify potential targets for post-disaster intervention based on residential characteristics.

Self-Reported Oil Spill Exposure and Pregnancy Complications: The GROWH Study

Adverse infant outcomes often rise in the aftermath of disaster, but few studies have assessed the effects of disaster on maternal health. 1091 southern Louisiana women were interviewed about their pregnancy history, including pregnancy complications. Associations between oil spill exposures and gestational diabetes, hypertensive disorders, and nausea/vomiting were assessed for all reported pregnancies. 631 women had a pregnancy both before and after the oil spill. Generalized estimating equations (logistic regression) with adjustment for confounders were used. To assess possible unmeasured confounding, instead of considering oil spill exposure as a time-varying exposure, women were defined as oil spill-exposed or not. If oil spill-exposed women were equally prone to complications in pregnancies that occurred prior to the oil spill as after it, it was considered that any associations were likely due to selection or reporting issues. Women who reported oil spill exposure, particularly loss of use of the coast, were more likely to report gestational diabetes; however, the level of association was similar for pregnancies before and after the spill (p for interaction >0.10 and odds ratios (ORs) for pregnancies prior to the spill > than those after the spill). No associations were found between oil spill exposure and hypertensive disorders. This analysis does not suggest an increased risk of pregnancy complications associated with exposure to the oil spill; however, future studies should assess exposure and outcomes prospectively and clinically instead of relying on self-report.

Socioeconomic status and bone mineral density in adults by race/ethnicity and gender: the Louisiana osteoporosis study

Low bone mineral density (BMD) and osteoporosis have become a public health problem. We found that non-Hispanic white, black, and Asian adults with extremely low education and personal income are more likely to have lower BMD. This relationship is gender-specific. These findings are valuable to guide bone health interventions.

INTRODUCTION

The evidence is limited regarding the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and bone mineral density (BMD) for minority populations in the USA, as well as the relationship between SES and BMD for men. This study explored and examined the relationship between SES and BMD by race/ethnicity and gender.

METHODS

Data (n = 6568) from the Louisiana Osteoporosis Study (LOS) was examined, including data for non-Hispanic whites (n = 4153), non-Hispanic blacks (n = 1907), and non-Hispanic Asians (n = 508). General linear models were used to estimate the relationship of SES and BMD (total hip and lumbar spine) stratified by race/ethnicity and gender. Adjustments were made for physiological and behavioral factors.

RESULTS

After adjusting for covariates, men with education levels below high school graduate experienced relatively low hip BMD than their counterparts with college or graduate education (p < 0.05). In addition, women reporting a personal annual income under $20,000 had relatively low hip and spine BMD than their counterparts with higher income level(s) (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Establishing a conclusive positive or negative association between BMD and SES proved to be difficult. However, individuals who are at an extreme SES disadvantage are the most vulnerable to have relatively low BMD in the study population. Efforts to promote bone health may benefit from focusing on men with low education levels and women with low individual income.

Recent trends in racial and regional disparities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality in United States

BACKGROUND

Although black women experienced greater cervical cancer incidence and mortality rate reduction in recent years, they continue to have higher incidence rates than whites. Great variations also exist among geographic regions of the US, with the South having both the highest incidence and mortality rates compared to other regions. The present study explores the question of whether living in the South is associated with greater racial disparity in cervical cancer incidence and mortality by examining race- and region-specific rates and the trend between 2000 and 2012.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 Program data was used. Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates, annual percent changes, and disparity ratios were calculated using SEER*Stat software and Joinpoint regression for four groups: US14-Non-Hispanic White (NHW), US14-Non-Hispanic Black (NHB), South-NHW, and South-NHB, where South included 4 registries from Georgia and Louisiana and US14 were 14 US registries except the four South registries.

RESULTS

The average age-adjusted cervical cancer incidence rate was the highest among South-NHBs (11.1) and mortality rate was the highest among US14-NHBs (5.4). In 2012, the degree of racial disparities between South-NHBs and South-NHWs was greater in terms of mortality rates (NHB:NHW = 1.80:1.35) than incidence rates (NHB:NHW = 1.45:1.15). While mortality disparity ratios decreased from 2000-2012 for US14-NHB (APC: -1.9(-2.3,-1.4), mortality disparity ratios for South-NHWs (although lower than NHBs) increased compared to US14-NHW. Incidence rates for NHBs continued to increase with increasing age, whereas rates for NHWs decreased after age 40. Mortality rates for NHBs dramatically increased at age 65 compared to a relatively stable trend for NHWs. The increasing racial disparity with increasing age in terms of cervical cancer incidence rates became more pronounced when corrected for hysterectomy prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Black race and South region were associated with higher cervical cancer incidence and mortality. Cervical cancer rates uncorrected for hysterectomy may underestimate regional and racial disparities. Increasing incidence rates for older NHBs compared to NHWs warrant further research to determine whether screening should continue for NHBs over age 65.

An Innovative Approach to Improve Completeness of Treatment and Other Key Data Elements in a Population-Based Cancer Registry: A15-Month Data Submission

BACKGROUND: In order to comply with the Louisiana legislative obligation and meet funding agencies’ requirement of case completeness for 12-month data submission, hospital cancer registries are mandated to submit cancer incidence data to the Louisiana Tumor Registry (LTR) within 6 months of diagnosis. However, enforcing compliance with timely reporting may result in incomplete data on adjuvant treatment received by the LTR. Although additional treatment information can be obtained via retransmission of the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR)–modified abstracts, consolidating multiple NAACCR-modified abstracts for the same case is extremely time consuming. To avoid a huge amount of work while obtaining timely and complete data, the LTR has requested hospital cancer registries resubmit their data 15 months after the close of the diagnosis year. The purpose of this report is to assess the improvement in the completeness of data items related to treatment, staging and site specific factors. METHODS: The LTR requested that hospital cancer registries resubmit 15-month data between April 1, 2016 and April 15, 2016 for cases diagnosed in 2014. Microsoft Visual Studio Visual Basic script was used to link and compare resubmitted data with existing data in the LTR database. Data elements used for matching same patient/tumor were name, Social Security number, date of birth, primary site, laterality, and hospital identifier number. Treatment data items were compared as known vs none/ unknown and known vs known with different code. Matched records with updated information were imported into the LTR database and flagged as modified abstract records for manual consolidation. Nonmatched records were also loaded in the LTR database as potential new cases for further investigation. RESULTS: A total of 25,207 resubmitted NAACCR abstracts were received from 38 hospitals and freestanding radiation centers. About 11.1% had at least 1 update related to treatment and/or other data item; an average of 3.3 updates per updated abstract. The majority of the updates (45.7%) for treatment were changes from none/unknown to known value and 42.6% of the updates were related to radiation treatment fields. In addition, 172 potential new cases were identified. Approximately 10.5% (18 cases) of these new cases were confirmed to be truly missed cases after investigation. CONCLUSION: The 15-month data resubmission is a cost-effective approach to obtaining complete information on treatment and other key data items from reporting facilities and can also be used to identify potential missed cases.

Utility of existing diabetes risk prediction tools for young black and white adults: Evidence from the Bogalusa Heart Study

AIMS

To evaluate several adult diabetes risk calculation tools for predicting the development of incident diabetes and pre-diabetes in a bi-racial, young adult population.

METHODS

Surveys beginning in young adulthood (baseline age ≥18) and continuing across multiple decades for 2122 participants of the Bogalusa Heart Study were used to test the associations of five well-known adult diabetes risk scores with incident diabetes and pre-diabetes using separate Cox models for each risk score. Racial differences were tested within each model. Predictive utility and discrimination were determined for each risk score using the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and Harrell's c-statistic.

RESULTS

All risk scores were strongly associated (p<.0001) with incident diabetes and pre-diabetes. The Wilson model indicated greater risk of diabetes for blacks versus whites with equivalent risk scores (HR=1.59; 95% CI 1.11-2.28; p=.01). C-statistics for the diabetes risk models ranged from 0.79 to 0.83. Non-event NRIs indicated high specificity (non-event NRIs: 76%-88%), but poor sensitivity (event NRIs: -23% to -3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Five diabetes risk scores established in middle-aged, racially homogenous adult populations are generally applicable to younger adults with good specificity but poor sensitivity. The addition of race to these models did not result in greater predictive capabilities. A more sensitive risk score to predict diabetes in younger adults is needed.

Unit Nonresponse in a Population-Based Study of Prostate Cancer

Low unit response rates can increase bias and compromise study validity. Response rates have continued to fall over the past decade despite all efforts to increase participation. Many factors have been linked to reduced response, yet relatively few studies have employed multivariate approaches to identify characteristics that differentiate respondents from nonrespondents since it is hard to collect information on the latter. We aimed to assess factors contributing to enrollment of prostate cancer (PCa) patients. We combined data from the North Carolina-Louisiana (LA) PCa Project's LA cohort, with additional sources such as US census tract and LA tumor registry data. We included specific analyses focusing on blacks, a group often identified as hard to enroll in health-related research. The ability to study the effect of Hurricane Katrina, which occurred amidst enrollment, as a potential determinant of nonresponse makes our study unique. Older age (≥ 70) for blacks (OR 0.65) and study phase with respect to Hurricane Katrina for both races (OR 0.59 for blacks, OR 0.48 for whites) were significant predictors of participation with lower odds. Neighborhood poverty for whites (OR 1.53) also was a significant predictor of participation, but with higher odds. Among blacks, residence in Orleans parish was associated with lower odds of participation (OR 0.33) before Katrina. The opposite occurred in whites, with lower odds (OR 0.43) after Katrina. Our results overall underscore the importance of tailoring enrollment approaches to specific target population characteristics to confront the challenges posed by nonresponse. Our results also show that recruitment-related factors may change when outside forces bring major alterations to a population's environment and demographics.

The Impact of Hearing Impairment, Perceptions and Attitudes about Hearing Loss, and Noise Exposure Risk Patterns on Hearing Handicap among Farm Family Members

Farm noise exposure is the major cause of noise-induced hearing loss among farmers. Hearing impairment associated with hearing loss, however, may not adequately represent communication handicap and the impact on quality of life. This descriptive correlational study examines the impact of hearing impairment, perceptions and attitudes about hearing loss, and noise exposure risk patterns on hearing handicap among farm family members. A convenience sample of 56 farmers and family members recruited from community-based agricultural events was studied. A hearing impairment was noted in the majority of the participants (80.4%). Fewer than 10 reported regularly wearing protection during work or recreational activities. High-frequency hearing loss in the left ear ( F = 10.30, p < .002), the attitude that wearing hearing protection prevents others from getting one's attention ( F = 11.90, p < .001), and the self-reported description of hearing ( F = 6.66, p < .013) significantly predicted hearing handicap using multiple regression analysis. Farmers and family members do not use hearing protection because they are concerned they will not hear others who are trying to communicate with them. The findings of this study confirm that this attitude, along with hearing loss in the left ear, is associated with a communication handicap in work settings. Although being able to hear others on a day-to-day basis is important, this attitude may contribute to behaviors leading to hearing loss and decreased communication over time.

The Burden of Obesity, Elevated Blood Pressure, and Diabetes in Uninsured and Underinsured Adolescents

BACKGROUND

Obesity, elevated blood pressure (BP), and diabetes mellitus are rising among the general U.S. adolescent population, but prevalence estimates are not available for uninsured or Medicaid populations.

METHODS

This retrospective epidemiological study extracted 155,139 electronic medical records collected between 1998 and 2012 on patients aged 10-19 years, from a clinical population predominantly uninsured or insured by Medicaid. Age, sex, race, height, weight, BP, and insurance type were captured at first clinic visit. Classifications included obesity (≥95th body mass index percentile), elevated BP (≥90th percentile), and diabetes mellitus (ICD-9-250.xx).

RESULTS

Among the 26,696 patients with complete data at first clinic visit, 24.4% were classified as obese and 39.5% had elevated BP. In logistic regression analyses, odds of obesity were significantly higher among uninsured versus commercially insured patients (odds ratio [OR]: 1.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.0-1.2]) and girls (OR: 1.3 [1.2-1.4]), but lower among older adolescents (for 15-17 years, OR: 0.7 [0.6-0.7]; for 18-19 years, OR: 0.7 [0.7-0.8]). Odds of elevated BP were significantly higher among Medicaid (OR: 1.1 [1.0-1.2]) and uninsured (OR: 1.2 [1.1-1.4]) versus commercially insured patients, but lower among African American versus White youth (OR: 0.9 [0.8-0.9]). Prevalence of type 1 diabetes was 1.46 per 1000 and prevalence of type 2 diabetes was 1.68 per 1000, with both occurring more often in girls versus boys and in Whites versus African Americans.

CONCLUSION

In this low-income clinical population, prevalence of obesity and elevated BP were higher than national estimates. The provision of preventive healthcare to all Medicaid and uninsured youth should remain a priority.

Presence of an Alcohol Use Disorder is Associated with Greater Pneumonia Severity in Hospitalized HIV-Infected Patients

PURPOSE

Pneumonia is common and more severe in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. Alcohol consumption in pneumonia patients without HIV is associated with excess mortality and morbidity. However, studies are lacking on the impact of alcohol on pneumonia and HIV. Our goal was to determine if alcohol use was an independent risk factor for pneumonia severity in HIV-infected patients.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of prospective cohort study data evaluating early bronchoscopy for pneumonia diagnosis in HIV patients between 2007 and 2011 was conducted. We defined AUDs using an alcohol use disorder identification test (AUDIT) score as follows: ≥8 indicates hazardous drinking and ≥14 indicates dependence. We quantified pneumonia severity using the pneumonia severity index (PSI). Multivariable linear regression was used to investigate the independent association between alcohol and pneumonia severity.

RESULTS

A total of 196 HIV+ individuals comprised our cohort. Most cohort subjects were middle-aged African American men. Most subjects (70 %) reported not taking antiretroviral therapy. The overall prevalence of hazardous drinking was 24 % in our cohort (48/196) with 10 % (19/196) meeting the criteria for alcohol dependence. Alcohol consumption was significantly associated with pneumonia severity (r = 0.25, p < 0.001). Hazardous drinking (β-coefficient 10.12, 95 % CI 2.95-17.29, p = 0.006) and alcohol dependence (β-coefficient 12.89, 95 % CI 2.59-23.18, p = 0.014) were independent risk factors for pneumonia severity. Reported homelessness and men who have sex with men (MSM) status remained independent risk factors for more severe pneumonia after adjustment for the effects of alcohol.

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of HIV patients with pneumonia, presence of an AUD was an independent risk factor for pneumonia severity. Homelessness and MSM status were associated with greater pneumonia severity in AUD patients.

Childhood Risk Factors and Pregnancy-Induced Hypertension: The Bogalusa Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) causes increased risk of maternal, fetal, and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Identification of risk factors for PIH in early life is central to the development of prevention strategies.

METHODS

A cohort of 703 women aged 25.5-51.3 years from the Bogalusa Heart Study were included. PIH were defined as self-reported hypertension during pregnancy and a blood pressure level <140/90mm Hg without antihypertensive medication (n = 131) at the subsequent examinations. Body mass index (BMI), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides measured during childhood (4-17 years) were considered. General linear models were used to examine differences in childhood between those who did and those who did not develop PIH. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios for PIH associated with childhood risk factors.

RESULTS

Compared to women who did not develop PIH, those who developed PIH had higher BMI (20.2 vs. 19.2kg/m(2), P = 0.0002) and systolic blood pressure (104.1 vs. 103.3mm Hg, P = 0.008) in childhood. After adjustment for other variables, childhood BMI was the only risk factor associated with PIH, with each standard deviation increase in childhood BMI being associated with an odds ratio of 1.35 (95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.68) for PIH. The odds of PIH increased significantly as childhood BMI increased from the bottom quartile to the top quartile (P for trend = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated childhood BMI is a significant risk factor for PIH in adulthood, which underscores the importance of body weight control in childhood for prevention of PIH.

Carotenoid intake and adipose tissue carotenoid levels in relation to prostate cancer aggressiveness among African-American and European-American men in the North Carolina-Louisiana prostate cancer project (PCaP)

BACKGROUND

Associations between carotenoid intake and prostate cancer (CaP) incidence have varied across studies. This may result from combining indolent with aggressive disease in most studies. This study examined whether carotenoid intake and adipose tissue carotenoid levels were inversely associated with CaP aggressiveness.

METHODS

Data on African-American (AA, n = 1,023) and European-American (EA, n = 1,079) men with incident CaP from North Carolina and Louisiana were analyzed. Dietary carotenoid intake was assessed using a detailed-food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), and abdominal adipose tissue samples were analyzed for carotenoid concentrations using high-performance liquid chromatography. Multivariable logistic regression was used in race-stratified analyses to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) comparing high aggressive CaP with low/intermediate aggressive CaP.

RESULTS

Carotenoid intake differed significantly between AAs and EAs, which included higher intake of lycopene among EAs and higher β-cryptoxanthin intake among AAs. Comparing the highest and lowest tertiles, dietary lycopene was associated inversely with high aggressive CaP among EAs (OR = 0.55, 95%CI: 0.34-0.89, Ptrend  = 0.02), while an inverse association was observed between dietary β-cryptoxanthin intake and high aggressive CaP among AAs (OR = 0.56, 95%CI: 0.36-0.87, Ptrend  = 0.01). Adipose tissue α-carotene and lycopene (cis + trans) concentrations were higher among EAs than AAs, and marginally significant inverse linear trends were observed for adipose α-carotene (Ptrend  = 0.07) and lycopene (Ptrend  = 0.11), and CaP aggressiveness among EAs only.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that diets high in lycopene and β-cryptoxanthin may protect against aggressive CaP among EAs and AAs, respectively. Differences in dietary behaviors may explain the observed racial differences in associations. Prostate 76:1053-1066, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Depression, Mental Distress, and Domestic Conflict among Louisiana Women Exposed to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the WaTCH Study

BACKGROUND

Psychological sequelae are among the most pronounced effects in populations following exposure to oil spills. Women in particular represent a vulnerable yet influential population but have remained relatively understudied with respect to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DHOS).

OBJECTIVE

To describe the relationship between oil spill exposure and mental health among women living in the southern coastal Louisiana parishes affected by the DHOS.

METHODS

The Women and Their Children's Health Study administered telephone interviews to a population-based sample of 2,842 women between 2012 and 2014 following the DHOS. Participants were asked about depression, mental distress, domestic conflict, and exposure to the oil spill.

RESULTS

Over 28% of the sample reported symptoms of depression, 13% reported severe mental distress, 16% reported an increase in the number of fights with their partners, and 11% reported an increase in the intensity of partner fights. Both economic and physical exposure were significantly associated with depressive symptoms and domestic conflict, whereas only physical exposure was related to mental distress.

CONCLUSIONS

This large, population-based study of women in southern coastal Louisiana, a particularly disaster-prone area of the country, revealed high rates of poor mental health outcomes. Reported exposure to the DHOS was a significant predictor of these outcomes, suggesting avenues for future disaster mitigation through the provision of mental health services.

CITATION

Rung AL, Gaston S, Oral E, Robinson WT, Fontham E, Harrington DJ, Trapido E, Peters ES. 2016. Depression, mental distress, and domestic conflict among Louisiana women exposed to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the WaTCH Study. Environ Health Perspect 124:1429-1435; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP167.

The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Physical Health among Adult Women in Southern Louisiana: The Women and Their Children's Health (WaTCH) Study

BACKGROUND

The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (DHOS) is the largest oil spill in U.S. history, negatively impacting Gulf Coast residents and the surrounding ecosystem. To date, no studies have been published concerning physical health outcomes associated with the DHOS in the general community.

OBJECTIVES

We characterized individual DHOS exposure using survey data and examined the association between DHOS exposure and physical health.

METHODS

Baseline data from 2,126 adult women residing in southern Louisiana and enrolled in the Women and Their Children's Health study were analyzed. Exploratory factor analysis was used to characterize DHOS exposure. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the associations between DHOS exposure and physical health symptoms were estimated using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

A two-factor solution was identified as the best fit for DHOS exposure: physical-environmental exposure and economic exposure. High physical-environmental exposure was significantly associated with all of the physical health symptoms, with the strongest associations for burning in nose, throat, or lungs (OR = 4.73; 95% CI: 3.10, 7.22), sore throat (OR = 4.66; 95% CI: 2.89, 7.51), dizziness (OR = 4.21; 95% CI: 2.69, 6.58), and wheezing (OR = 4.20; 95% CI: 2.86, 6.17). Women who had high-economic exposure were significantly more likely to report wheezing (OR = 1.92; 95% CI: 1.32, 2.79); headaches (OR = 1.81; 95% CI: 1.41, 2.58); watery, burning, itchy eyes (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.20, 2.16); and stuffy, itchy, runny nose (OR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.16, 2.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Among southern Louisiana women, both physical-environmental and economic exposure to the DHOS were associated with an increase in self-reported physical health outcomes. Additional longitudinal studies of this unique cohort are needed to elucidate the impact of the DHOS on short- and long-term human health.

CITATION

Peres LC, Trapido E, Rung AL, Harrington DJ, Oral E, Fang Z, Fontham E, Peters ES. 2016. The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and physical health among adult women in southern Louisiana: the Women and Their Children's Health (WaTCH) study. Environ Health Perspect 124:1208-1213; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510348.

Zoonotic Leprosy in the Southeastern United States

The geographic range and complexity of this disease are increasing.

Nine-banded armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus) are naturally infected with Mycobacterium leprae and have been implicated in zoonotic transmission of leprosy. Early studies found this disease mainly in Texas and Louisiana, but armadillos in the southeastern United States appeared to be free of infection. We screened 645 armadillos from 8 locations in the southeastern United States not known to harbor enzootic leprosy for M. leprae DNA and antibodies. We found M. leprae–infected armadillos at each location, and 106 (16.4%) animals had serologic/PCR evidence of infection. Using single-nucleotide polymorphism variable number tandem repeat genotyping/genome sequencing, we detected M. leprae genotype 3I-2-v1 among 35 armadillos. Seven armadillos harbored a newly identified genotype (3I-2-v15). In comparison, 52 human patients from the same region were infected with 31 M. leprae types. However, 42.3% (22/52) of patients were infected with 1 of the 2 M. leprae genotype strains associated with armadillos. The geographic range and complexity of zoonotic leprosy is expanding.

Screening of males for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections at STD clinics in three US cities — Indianapolis, New Orleans, Seattle

We assessed prevalence and risk factor data for men routinely screened for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae in STD clinics in four US cities from May 1995–March 1999. Data were analysed separately for 'test-visits' (self-reported symptoms, clinical signs or sexual contact to an STD) and 'screen-visits' (STD screen only) for 32,595 men with 45,390 visits. Among test-visits in Seattle, Indianapolis and New Orleans, 8.7% (807/9285), 15.3% (1305/8519), and 10.1% (1551/15,296) of men were positive for C. trachomatis, and 10.2% (773/7543), 24.9% (2108/8478), and 30.4% (4746/ 15,629) for N. gonorrhoeae. Among screen-visits, 2.1% (88/4103), 7.3% (130/1790), and 5.6% (292/5183) of men were positive for C. trachomatis, and 1.8% (46/2576), 1.7% (31/ 1786), and 5.2% (274/5235) for N. gonorrhoeae. Positivity for screen-visits was particularly high among young men (15-24 years), and those reporting > 1 sex partner in the past 60 days. Substantial variation among sites in positivity warrants local determination of prevalence and risk factors to inform screening strategies.

Comparison of the heart failure risk stratification performance of the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with Type 2 diabetes

AIMS

To investigate the risk prediction and the risk stratification performances of the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRCKD - EPI vs. eGFRMDRD ) on heart failure in patients with Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

The study cohort included 12 258 White and 16 886 African American low-income patients with Type 2 diabetes who were 30-90 years old at baseline. Heart failure risk according to different eGFRCKD - EPI and eGFRMDRD categories was prospectively assessed.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 6.5 years, 5043 incident heart failure cases were identified. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of heart failure associated with the eGFRCKD - EPI categories [≥ 90 (reference group), 75-89, 60-74, 30-59 and < 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2) ] were 1.00, 1.11, 1.31, 1.75 and 2.93 (Ptrend < 0.001) for African American patients, and 1.00, 1.11, 1.08, 1.59 and 2.92 (Ptrend < 0.001) for White patients, respectively. The model with eGFRCKD - EPI and the other risk factors had significantly higher Harrell's C than the model with eGFRMDRD and other risk factors. Patients reclassified downward from eGFRMDRD 60-74 to eGFRCKD - EPI 30-59 and from eGFRMDRD 30-59 to eGFRCKD - EPI < 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2) showed higher heart failure risk than those who were not reclassified.

CONCLUSIONS

Impaired kidney function (i.e. GFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) ), and even mildly decreased GFR (60-74 ml/min/1.73 m(2) ) estimated by both equations is associated with an increased risk of heart failure. Compared with GFR estimated using the MDRD equation, GFR estimated using the CKD-EPI equation added more predictive power to the model with the other risk factors. Also, eGFRCKD - EPI provided more accurate heart failure risk stratification than eGFRMDRD .

Modeling and Prediction of Oyster Norovirus Outbreaks along Gulf of Mexico Coast

BACKGROUND

Oyster norovirus outbreaks often pose high risks to human health. However, little is known about environmental factors controlling the outbreaks, and little can be done to prevent the outbreaks because they are generally considered to be unpredictable.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to develop a mathematical model for predicting risks of oyster norovirus outbreaks using environmental predictors.

METHODS

We developed a novel probability-based Artificial Neural Network model, called NORF model, using 21 years of environmental and norovirus outbreak data collected from Louisiana oyster harvesting areas along the Gulf of Mexico coast, USA. The NORF model involves six input variables that were selected through stepwise regression analysis and sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

We found that the model-based probability of norovirus outbreaks was most sensitive to gage height (the depth of water in an oyster bed) and water temperature, followed by wind, rainfall, and salinity, respectively. The NORF model predicted all historical oyster norovirus outbreaks from 1994 through 2014. Specifically, norovirus outbreaks occurred when the NORF model probability estimate was > 0.6, whereas no outbreaks occurred when the estimated probability was < 0.5. Outbreaks may also occur when the estimated probability is 0.5-0.6.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings require further confirmation, but they suggest that oyster norovirus outbreaks may be predictable using the NORF model. The ability to predict oyster norovirus outbreaks at their onset may make it possible to prevent or at least reduce the risk of norovirus outbreaks by closing potentially affected oyster beds.

CITATION

Wang J, Deng Z. 2016. Modeling and prediction of oyster norovirus outbreaks along Gulf of Mexico coast. Environ Health Perspect 124:627-633; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509764.

Device Thrombosis During Destination Therapy

BACKGROUND

Device thrombosis remains a complication of long-term mechanical circulatory support with HeartMate II.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective analysis of patients who underwent destination therapy (DT) with HeartMate II from January 2010-December 2013 at Tulane University Medical Center.

RESULTS

Eighteen HeartMate II were implanted for DT. Survival rates were 72.2% at 1 year and 37% at 2 years. Device thrombosis in 7 of the 18 patients (39%) accounted for the low survival rate at 2 years. Known risk factors for device thrombosis were equally present in patients with and without device thrombosis. In contrast to patients without device thrombosis, all patients with device thrombosis had a pre-existing systemic inflammatory condition.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with pre-existing systemic inflammatory conditions are at risk of device thrombosis during DT.