Extinction risk from climate change

Modification of metals and ligands in two-dimensional conjugated metal-organic frameworks for CO2 electroreduction: A combined density functional theory and machine learning study

Electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction reaction (CO2RR) is a promising technology to establish an artificial carbon cycle. Two-dimensional conjugated metal-organic frameworks (2D c-MOFs) with high electrical conductivity have great potential as catalysts. Herein, we designed a range of 2D c-MOFs with different transition metal atoms and organic ligands, TMNxO4-x-HDQ (TM = Cr∼Cu, Mo, Ru∼Ag, W∼Au; x  = 0, 2, 4; HDQ = hexadipyrazinoquinoxaline), and systematically studied their catalytic performance using density functional theory (DFT). Calculation results indicated that all of TMNxO4-x-HDQ structures possess good thermodynamic and electrochemical stability. Notably, among the examined 37 MOFs, 6 catalysts outperformed the Cu(211) surface in terms of catalytic activity and product selectivity. Specifically, NiN4-HDQ emerged as an exceptional electrocatalyst for CO production in CO2RR, yielding a remarkable low limiting potential (UL) of -0.04 V. CuN4-HDQ, NiN2O2-HDQ, and PtN2O2-HDQ also exhibited high activity for HCOOH production, with UL values of -0.27, -0.29, and -0.27 V, respectively, while MnN4-HDQ, and NiO4-HDQ mainly produced CH4 with UL values of -0.58 and -0.24 V, respectively. Furthermore, these 6 catalysts efficiently suppressed the competitive hydrogen evolution reaction. Machine learning (ML) analysis revealed that the key intrinsic factors influencing CO2RR performance of these 2D c-MOFs include electron affinity (EA), electronegativity (χ), the first ionization energy (Ie), p-band center of the coordinated N/O atom (εp), the radius of metal atom (r), and d-band center (εd). Our findings may provide valuable insights for the exploration of highly active and selective CO2RR electrocatalysts.

Projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution range of Manihot species endemic to Northeast Brazil

Climate change is a global concern, with far-reaching implications for biodiversity and ecosystems. Understanding impact on species distribution is crucial for effective conservation strategies. The aims of this study were to evaluate the projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Manihot species endemic to Northeast Brazil and estimate the presence of climate suitability within protected areas in the future. We used ecological niche models to assess the potential distribution of 11 endemic species, providing predictions of current and future scenarios using an optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenario. The results revealed that in the optimistic scenario, 45% of the species may experience a partial reduction in their potential distribution range by 2100, and this percentage increases to 54% in the pessimistic scenario. Other species, on the other hand, will increase their potential distribution. The climatically suitable area for most species will be inserted in some protected areas, but species with limited current distribution and decreasing potential range must be prioritized for conservation. This study provides valuable information about the future potential distribution of endemic species of Manihot.

Global primary predictors of extinction risk in primates

Identifying the main predictors of species' extinction risk while accounting for the effects of spatial and phylogenetic structures in the data is key to preventing species loss in tropical forests through adequate conservation practices. We recorded 22 705 precise geographical locations of primate occurrence across four major geographic realms (Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar and Asia) to assess predictors of threat status using a novel Bayesian spatio-phylogenetic approach. We estimated the relative contributions of fixed factors (forest amount, body mass, home range, diel activity, locomotion, evolutionary distinctiveness and climatic instability) and random factors (space and phylogeny) to primate extinction risk. Precipitation instability increased the extinction risk in the Neotropics but decreased it in mainland Africa and Madagascar. Forest amount was negatively associated with extinction risk in all realms except Madagascar. Body mass increased the extinction risk in the Neotropics and Madagascar, whereas home range increased the extinction risk in mainland Africa and decreased it in Asia. Evolutionary distinctiveness negatively influenced extinction risk only in mainland Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change mitigation and forest protection strategies. Increasing the protection of large primates and reducing hunting are also essential.

Environmental DNA sheds new insight on molecular adaptation of foraminifera to temperature from laboratory-controlled culture experiment

Foraminifera is the most important temperature proxy of the ocean on long time scales. However, the absence of temperature-controlled experiments at different water depths hinders the advancement of paleotemperature reconstruction with foraminifera from the continental shelf. For the first time, this study investigated the response of benthic foraminifera to temperature change using microcosm culture and metabarcoding. Foraminiferal communities from three continental stations at varying water depths (6.0, 9.2, and 26.0 m) were cultured under five temperature gradients (6, 12, 18, 24, and 30°C), with each treatment performed in triplicate. The foraminifera were fed with microalgae every 4 days, and the filtered seawater (through 0.22 μm pores), acting as a medium, was changed accordingly. The experiment lasted for 80 days, and 47 DNA samples were obtained and analyzed, including three in situ samples. The results showed that foraminifera adjusted its growth rate within the low-temperature range and adopted an r-strategy to cope with high-temperature stress. In addition, the foraminifera from deeper water stations exhibited a pronounced vulnerability to diminishing read counts. The read counts, operational taxonomic units (OTU) counts and Margalef index of foraminifera and the read counts of Rotaliida exhibited a remarkably positive correlation with temperature. The recommended relationships were described as read counts = 1314.75*T + 44754.51; OTU counts = 1.13*T + 44.26; Margalef index =1.13*T + 44.26. This study established the first quantitative relationship between temperature and foraminifera molecular parameters that holds significant implications for long-time paleotemperature calibration in climate change.

Distribution and habitat use by the Audouin's Gull (Ichthyaetus audouinii) in anthropized environments

Human activities provide wildlife with highly abundant and predictable food subsidies, which can affect population dynamics and have wide-ranging ecological impacts. A key ecological question is how species adapt their foraging behaviour to capitalize on these new feeding opportunities. We investigate habitat use by Audouin's Gulls (Ichthyaetus audouinii) off the Western Mediterranean Sea, an opportunistic seabird that has recently expanded to diverse breeding colonies subjected to varying degrees of human influence. By combining GPS tracking, remote sensing, and GIS, we assessed the resource selection and habitat preferences of gulls from five colonies across their breeding latitudinal range, including interactions with industrial fisheries. Overall, the use of terrestrial habitats was slightly higher (57 % of total positions) compared to the marine environment (42 %), with individuals preferentially feeding on urban and related areas or fishing ports. However, habitat utilization varied among studied colonies, likely in response to contrasting food availability and accessibility of human related food resources on land (e.g., agriculture and livestock areas, landfills or rice fields). At sea, individuals largely distributed over highly productive and persistent marine areas with intense fishing pressure. Individuals also adapted their daily activity patterns to match food availability: gulls preferentially feed on the marine environment during the night, while the use of terrestrial habitats increases during daylight hours. Individuals' daily activity patterns also matched that for the two main fishing gears operating in the area: diurnal trawlers and nocturnal purse-seiners. Our findings offer perspectives on the reliance of opportunistic seabird species on anthropogenic food subsidies and inform on potential implications for the conservation and management of these under changes in fishing policies (EU discard ban). Broadly, we provide further insights on how this species can adapt to changing environments.

Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Biology: From Data Collection to Predictions

In the era of big data, ecological research is experiencing a transformative shift, yet big-data advancements in thermal ecology and the study of animal responses to climate conditions remain limited. This review discusses how big data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) can significantly enhance our understanding of microclimates and animal behaviors under changing climatic conditions. We explore AI's potential to refine microclimate models and analyze data from advanced sensors and camera technologies, which capture detailed, high-resolution information. This integration can allow researchers to dissect complex ecological and physiological processes with unprecedented precision. We describe how AI can enhance microclimate modeling through improved bias correction and downscaling techniques, providing more accurate estimates of the conditions that animals face under various climate scenarios. Additionally, we explore AI's capabilities in tracking animal responses to these conditions, particularly through innovative classification models that utilize sensors such as accelerometers and acoustic loggers. For example, the widespread usage of camera traps can benefit from AI-driven image classification models to accurately identify thermoregulatory responses, such as shade usage and panting. AI is therefore instrumental in monitoring how animals interact with their environments, offering vital insights into their adaptive behaviors. Finally, we discuss how these advanced data-driven approaches can inform and enhance conservation strategies. In particular, detailed mapping of microhabitats essential for species survival under adverse conditions can guide the design of climate-resilient conservation and restoration programs that prioritize habitat features crucial for biodiversity resilience. In conclusion, the convergence of AI, big data, and ecological science heralds a new era of precision conservation, essential for addressing the global environmental challenges of the 21st century.

Scientist engagement and the knowledge-action gap

The combined gravity of biodiversity loss and climate change keeps increasing. As the approaching catastrophe has never looked so alarming, the amount of scientific knowledge about the bioclimatic crisis is still rising exponentially. Here we reflect on how researchers in ecology or climate science behave amid this crisis. In face of the disproportionality between how much scientists know and how little they engage, we discuss four barriers that may underlie the decoupling of scientific awareness from concrete action. We then reflect on the potency of rational thinking to trigger engagement on its own, and question whether more scientific knowledge can be the tipping point towards radical changes within society. Our observations challenge the tenet that a better understanding of what surrounds us is necessary to protect it efficiently. With the environmental cost of scientific research itself as an additional factor that must be considered, we suggest there is an urgent need for researchers to collectively reflect on their situation and decide how to redirect their actions.

Global risk assessment of sharks to climate change

In what has been referred to as a 'perfect storm', it is now clear that we will be concurrently facing both a biodiversity and climate crisis over the incoming decades. In this context, we propose a broadly applicable framework to evaluate the climate-associated risk for marine life at the species-level, based on the ecosystem-level assessment developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We apply this framework to extant marine shark species - given their major ecological and socioeconomic importance, alongside their precarious conservation status -at the global scale. Through the integration of expert-assessed information on each risk dimension, we consider the ecosystem dependencies of the targeted species, alongside with their vulnerability to human pressures. More specifically, we estimate the threat (exposure * hazard) level imposed by different climate change scenarios [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1, SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5] across meaningful timeframes (2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100) and contrast the normalized threat, vulnerability, and risk scores of each species across regions and attributes (order, habitat use, climate preference, lifestyle, trophic position, reproductive mode, and extinction risk category). Our analysis showcases how all shark species should be affected by climate change regardless of the emission scenario. With effects widely expected over the short-term, discrepancies between emission scenarios escalate considerably over time, with associated changes in the level and type of ecological implications. Moreover, with distinct lineages and functional attributes likely to be differently affected and with distinct consequences expected across scenarios, this analysis highlights how climate change may exacerbate the risk of functional and phylogenetic loss documented for this key group of marine predators.

Strategies to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from the Solid Waste Management Sector: A Case Study of Vavuniya, Sri Lanka

The waste sector is a substantial source of GHG emissions worldwide. Open dumping and internal combustion (IC) waste collection vehicles are significant sources of GHG emissions in Vavuniya. This research aims to estimate GHG emissions and recommend strategies to reduce emissions from the solid waste management sector. The IPCC methodology, considering Tier 1 estimation values based on default activity data, was used to estimate CH4 emissions from solid waste disposal sites. GHG emissions from collection vehicles were calculated based on IPCC mobile combustion recommendations. Three recommended strategies were considered based on demand, economic, and environmental feasibility and are expected to commence in 2025. According to current practices, open dumping generated 29.217 Gg of CO2 equivalent up to 2023, projected to rise by 37.8% by 2040. There will be a 57% decrease in open dumping-related GHG emissions by 2040 if composting is made mandatory for biodegradable waste, even though it produces emissions. Solar panels will be used to charge electric vehicles that will replace IC ones to cut emissions and fuel expenditures by 2025. The carbon sink reforestation program at the district level would need to begin in 2025 with an area of 161 hectares to sequester cumulative GHG emissions from composting dumpsites and fuel vehicles to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040. Investments from Vavuniya Carbon Sink Bonds (VCSB) on additional solar panels will ensure financial feasibility, having an internal rate of return of 23.18%. It paves the path to reducing GHG emissions, which is highly emphasized in the Nationally Determined Contributions, National Climate Change Policy, and waste management policy of Sri Lanka.

Proximity to humans is associated with antimicrobial-resistant enteric pathogens in wild bird microbiomes

Humans are radically altering global ecology, and one of the most apparent human-induced effects is urbanization, where high-density human habitats disrupt long-established ecotones. Changes to these transitional areas between organisms, especially enhanced contact among humans and wild animals, provide new opportunities for the spread of zoonotic pathogens. This poses a serious threat to global public health, but little is known about how habitat disruption impacts cross-species pathogen spread. Here, we investigated variation in the zoonotic enteric pathogen Campylobacter jejuni. The ubiquity of C. jejuni in wild bird gut microbiomes makes it an ideal organism for understanding how host behavior and ecology influence pathogen transition and spread. We analyzed 700 C. jejuni isolate genomes from 30 bird species in eight countries using a scalable generalized linear model approach. Comparing multiple behavioral and ecological traits showed that proximity to human habitation promotes lineage diversity and is associated with antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) strains in natural populations. Specifically, wild birds from urban areas harbored up to three times more C. jejuni genotypes and AMR genes. This study provides novel methodology and much-needed quantitative evidence linking urbanization to gene pool spread and zoonoses.

The impact of elevation and prediction of climate change on an ultra high-elevation ectotherm

Climate change may affect the survival and reproduction of ectotherms. The toad-headed lizard Phrynocephalus theobaldi, which holds the distinction of occupying the highest elevation among all reptile species on Earth, with an elevational range from 3600 to 5000 m, represents an ideal model for studying the adaptations to climatic changes across elevational gradients. Here, we used mechanistic and hybrid species distribution models (HSDM) together with characteristic measurements of thermal biology (CTmax, CTmin, and Tsel) to simulate and compare the distribution and activity periods of the lizard across elevations in response to climate change. NicheMapR simulations using only climate factors predicted that all populations will be negatively impacted by climate change (+3°C) by suffering a reduced distribution. However, the impact was clearly reduced in simulations that accounted for thermal physiological traits. Longer activity periods were predicted for all populations during climate change. The suitable distribution is predicted to change slightly, with an increase anticipated for both high and low elevation populations. However, the forecast indicates a more pronounced increase in suitable habitats for populations at higher elevations (>4200 m) compared to those at lower elevations (<4200 m). This study underscores the key influence of climate change on population establishment and stresses the importance of physiological traits in distribution simulation for future studies to understand the potential constraints in animal adaptation to extreme high environments.

Do modern climatic niches distinguish extinct and extant plant genera in New Zealand?

Past climate changes have had large impacts on modern ecological patterns. Understanding if legacies are distinguishable in the climatic niches of extant and locally extinct taxa can provide insight into the importance of climate in extinction events. To better understand mid- to late-Cenozoic New Zealand plant extinctions, which are often attributed to Cenozoic climate cooling, we identify 13 con-familial extinct and extant New Zealand genus pairs, which have modern distributions in Australia. Using climatic niches derived from current geographic distributions in Australia, we compared (i) total niche breadth, (ii) niche overlap, and (iii) individual climate parameters, to investigate potential climate drivers of intrafamilial extinction and persistence patterns in New Zealand. A majority of New Zealand extinct genera (9 out of 13 pairs) do not indicate climate niche legacies consistent with susceptibility to extinction from changing climates, while the remaining four extinct/extant pairs show slight climatic niche legacies. Three extinct genera have warmer niches than their extant counterpart, which is consistent with extinction reflecting intolerance of cooling Cenozoic climates. The other genus pair with a climatic niche legacy has an extinct genus that is distinguished by a niche with smaller precipitation seasonality than its extant counterpart, suggesting that climate metrics other than temperature may also be important extinction drivers in some taxa. Our results show that the mechanisms of Cenozoic extinctions of New Zealand genera are likely more complex than taxa reaching environmental tolerances due to cooling climates. Comparisons of current climatic niches between extant and extinct sister taxa can provide useful insights into large-scale, long-term climatic legacies but more analyses, including trait and phylogeographic patterns, would lead to additional insights into alternative pathways of extinction.

An unprotected vulnerable relict subtropical conifer-Keteleeria evelyniana: Its forests, populations, growth and endangerment by invasive alien plant species in China

Relict subtropical coniferous forests in China face severe fragmentation, resulting in declining populations, and some are under significant threat from invasive alien species. Despite the crucial importance of understanding forest dynamics, knowledge gaps persist, particularly regarding the impact of invasive plants on vulnerable natives like Keteleeria evelyniana. In this study, we investigated the impact of invasive plants on the regeneration of forests dominated by K. evelyniana, a subtropical relict species in southwestern China. For this purpose, we characterized forest dynamics of 160 forest plots featuring K. evelyniana as the primary dominant species and determined whether the presence of invasive plants was correlated with regeneration of K. evelyniana. We identified four distinct forest types in which K. evelyniana was dominant. We found that radial growth of K. evelyniana trees is faster in younger age-classes today than it was for older trees at the same age. The population structure of K. evelyniana in each forest type exhibited a multimodal age-class distribution. However, three forest types lacked established saplings younger than 10 years old, a situation attributed to the dense coverage of the invasive alien Ageratina adenophora. This invasive species resulted in a reduction of understory species diversity. Additionally, our analysis uncovered a significant negative correlation in phylogenetic relatedness (net relatedness index) between native and invasive alien plant species in eastern Yunnan. This suggests closely related invasive species face heightened competition, hindering successful invasion. Taken together, our findings indicate that successful establishment and habitat restoration of K. evelyniana seedling/saplings require effective measures to control invasive plants.

Comparative phylogeography reveals dissimilar genetic differentiation patterns in two sympatric amphibian species

Global climate change is expected to have a profound effect on species distribution. Due to the temperature constraints, some narrow niche species could shift their narrow range to higher altitudes or latitudes. In this study, we explored the correlation between species traits, genetic structure, and geographical range size. More specifically, we analyzed how these variables are affected by differences in fundamental niche breadth or dispersal ability in the members of two sympatrically distributed stream-dwelling amphibian species (frog, Quasipaa yei; salamander, Pachyhynobius shangchengensis), in Dabie Mountains, East China. Both species showed relatively high genetic diversity in most geographical populations and similar genetic diversity patterns (JTX, low; BYM, high) correlation with habitat changes and population demography. Multiple clustering analyses were used to disclose differentiation among the geographical populations of these two amphibian species. Q. yei disclosed the relatively shallow genetic differentiation, while P. shangchengensis showed an opposite pattern. Under different historical climatic conditions, all ecological niche modeling disclosed a larger suitable habitat area for Q. yei than for P. shangchengensis; these results indicated a wider environment tolerance or wider niche width of Q. yei than P. shangchengensis. Our findings suggest that the synergistic effects of environmental niche variation and dispersal ability may help shape genetic structure across geographical topology, particularly for species with extremely narrow distribution.

Integrating environmental gradients into breeding: application of genomic reactions norms in a perennial species

Global warming threatens the productivity of forest plantations. We propose here the integration of environmental information into a genomic evaluation scheme using individual reaction norms, to enable the quantification of resilience in forest tree improvement and conservation strategies in the coming decades. Random regression models were used to fit wood ring series, reflecting the longitudinal phenotypic plasticity of tree growth, according to various environmental gradients. The predictive ability of the models was considered to select the most relevant environmental gradient, namely a gradient derived from an ecophysiological model and combining trunk water potential and temperature. Even if the individual ranking was preserved over most of the environmental gradient, strong genotype x environment interactions were detected in the extreme unfavorable part of the gradient, which includes environmental conditions that are very likely to be more frequent in the future. Combining genomic information and longitudinal data allowed to predict the growth of individuals in environments where they have not been observed. Phenotyping of 50% of the individuals in all the environments studied allowed to predict the growth of the remaining 50% of individuals in all these environments with a predictive ability of 0.25. Without changing the total number of observations, adding observations in a reduced number of environments for the individuals to be predicted, while decreasing the number of individuals phenotyped in all environments, increased the predictive ability to 0.59, highlighting the importance of phenotypic data allocation. We found that genomic reaction norms are useful for the characterization and prediction of the function of genetic parameters and facilitate breeding in a climate change context.

Birds in arid regions have depauperate louse communities: Climate change implications?

Environmental factors such as temperature and humidity influence the distribution of free-living organisms. As climates change, the distributions of these organisms change along with their associated parasites, mutualists and commensals. Less studied, however, is the possibility that environmental conditions may directly influence the distribution of these symbionts even if the hosts are able to persist in altered environments. Here, we investigate the diversity of parasitic lice (Insecta: Phthiraptera) on birds in arid Utah compared to the humid Bahamas. We quantified the parasite loads of 500 birds. We found that the prevalence, abundance and richness of lice was considerably lower among birds in Utah, compared to the Bahamas, despite sampling greater host taxonomic richness in Utah. Our data suggest that as climates change, birds in arid regions will have less diverse louse communities over time, potentially relieving birds of some of the cost of controlling these ectoparasites. Conversely, birds in more humid regions will see an increase in louse diversity, which may require them to invest more time and energy in anti-parasite defense. Additional research with other ectoparasites of birds and mammals across different environmental conditions is needed to more fully understand how climate change may reshape parasite communities, and how these changes could influence their hosts.

Predicting Polygonum capitatum distribution in China across climate scenarios using MaxEnt modeling

Climate change affects the geographical distribution of species. Predicting the future potential areas suitable for certain species is of great significance for understanding their distribution characteristics and exerting their value. Based on the data of 276 effective distribution points of Polygonum capitatum and 20 ecological factors, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and the ArcGIS software were employed to predict the areas suitable for P. capitatum growth, and the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of this species were explored. Under the current climatic conditions, the areas highly suitable for P. capitatum are mainly distributed in southwestern China, with a small number of sites in coastal areas and most sites in Guizhou Province. Under different climate scenarios, the suitable areas were reduced to varying degrees. The dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. capitatum were precipitation in the driest month, annual precipitation, and elevation, with a cumulative contribution rate of 84.1%. Against the background of a changing climate, the areas suitable for P. capitatum in China will be widely distributed in the southwestern region, with Guizhou Province and Yunnan Province as the main distribution areas; some sites will also be distributed throughout the southwest of Tibet Autonomous Region, the south of Sichuan Province, the north of Guangxi Autonomous Region, and the coastal area of Fujian Province. Optimal conditions for P. capitatum include a dry month precipitation range of 13.4 to 207.3 mm, elevations from 460.3 to 7214.3 m, and annual precipitation between 810 and 1575 mm. Given these insights, we recommend enhanced conservation efforts in current prime habitats and exploring potential cultivation in newly identified suitable regions to ensure the species' preservation and sustainable use.

Predicting Conservation Status of Testudoformes under Climate Change Using Habitat Models

Climate change promotes variations in distribution ranges, potentially leading to biodiversity loss and increased extinction risks for species. It is crucial to investigate these variations under future climate change scenarios for effective biodiversity conservation. Here, we studied the future distribution ranges of 268 Testudoformes species under climate change using habitat models, specifically species distribution models (SDMs), to assess their conservation status. Our results have indicated that over half of species are projected to experience declines in their potential distribution ranges under two scenarios. In particular, we found that three critically endangered species-Three-striped roofed turtle (Batagur dhongoka), Durango mud turtle (Kinosternon durangoense), and Colombian mud turtle (Kinosternon dunni)-displayed extraction of their distribution ranges and faced extinction under global climate change. Additionally, our analysis revealed that the potential distribution ranges of some species might increase under future climate scenarios. However, these findings must be interpreted with caution as they do not account for other significant factors such as biological invasions, population structure, land-use change, anthropogenic disturbances, and inter-organism interrelationships. Future studies should incorporate these factors to provide a more comprehensive assessment of extinction risks. Our findings suggest that climate change, in conjunction with habitat degradation and human activities, must be considered when assessing the extinction risks of Testudoformes.

Bottom-up effects drive the dynamic of an Antarctic seabird predator-prey system

Understanding how populations respond to variability in environmental conditions and interspecific interactions is one of the biggest challenges of population ecology, particularly in the context of global change. Although many studies have investigated population responses to climate change, very few have explicitly integrated interspecific relationships when studying these responses. In this study, we aimed to understand the combined effects of interspecific interactions and environmental conditions on the demographic parameters of a prey-predator system of three sympatric seabird populations breeding in Antarctica: the south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) and its two main preys during the breeding season, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) and the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We built a two-species integrated population model (IPM) with 31 years of capture-recapture and count data and provided a framework that made it possible to estimate the demographic parameters and abundance of a predator-prey system in a context where capture-recapture data were not available for one species. Our results showed that predator-prey interactions and local environmental conditions differentially affected south polar skuas depending on their breeding state of the previous year. Concerning prey-predator relationships, the number of Adélie penguin breeding pairs showed a positive effect on south polar skua survival and breeding probability, and the number of emperor penguin dead chicks showed a positive effect on the breeding success of south polar skuas. In contrast, there was no evidence for an effect of the number of south polar skuas on the demography of Adélie penguins. We also found an important impact of sea ice conditions on both the dynamics of south polar skuas and Adélie penguins. Our results suggest that this prey-predator system is mostly driven by bottom-up processes and local environmental conditions.

Phylogenetic climatic niche evolution and diversification of the Neurergus species (Salamandridae) in the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot

This study explores how climate variables influenced the evolution and diversification of Neurergus newts within the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot. We use a dated phylogenetic tree and climatic niche models to analyze their evolutionary history and ecological preferences. Using genetic data from nuclear (KIAA) and mitochondrial (16s and 12s) genes, we estimate divergence times and identify four major Neurergus clades. The initial speciation event occurred approximately 11.3 million years ago, coinciding with the uplift of the Zagros and Anatolian mountains. This geological transformation isolated newt populations, likely triggering the first speciation event. By integrating potential geographic distribution with climate variables, we reconstruct ancestral niche occupancy profiles. This highlights the critical roles of temperature and precipitation in shaping Neurergus habitat preferences and distribution. We observe both phylogenetic niche conservatism and divergence, with niche divergence playing a dominant role in diversification. This research emphasizes the complex interplay of geography, climate, and ecology in speciation and the vulnerability of isolated mountain newt populations to environmental changes.

Resurrecting Historical Observations to Characterize Species-Specific Nesting Traits of Bumblebees

AbstractIn recent years, ecological research has become increasingly synthetic, relying on revolutionary changes in data availability and accessibility. In spite of their strengths, these approaches may cause us to overlook natural history knowledge that is not part of the digitized English-language scientific record. Here, we combine historic and modern documents to quantify species-specific nesting habitat associations of bumblebees (Bombus spp. Latreille, 1802 Apidae). We compiled nest location data from 316 documents, of which 81 were non-English and 93 were published before 1950. We tested whether nesting traits show phylogenetic signal, examined relationships between habitat associations at different scales, and compared methodologies used to locate nests. We found no clear phylogenetic signals, but we found that nesting habitat associations were somewhat generalizable within subgenera. Landcover associations were related to nesting substrate associations; for example, surface-nesting species also tended to be associated with grasslands. Methodology was associated with nest locations; community scientists were most likely and researchers using nest boxes were least likely to report nests in human-dominated environments. These patterns were not apparent in past syntheses based only on the modern digital record. Our findings highlight the tremendous value of historic accounts for quantifying species' traits and other basic biological knowledge needed to interpret global-scale patterns.

Predicting habitat suitability of the critically endangered Be'er Sheva fringe-fingered lizard

Anthropogenic changes, such as land use, are the main drivers causing climate change and biodiversity loss, with hundreds of thousands of species lacking sufficient habitats for their populations to persist and likely to go extinct within decades. Endemic species are more susceptible to habitat changes and are at the forefront of the biodiversity crisis. We used species distribution models to generate a relative habitat suitability map and identified the habitat requirements of the critically endangered and endemic Be'er Sheva fringe-fingered lizard (Acanthodactylus beershebensis). The model showed that the species' suitable habitats are associated with arid loess plains characterized by scattered, low vegetation cover, primarily on north-facing aspects, suggesting that these species-specific habitat requirements limit its distribution. The size of the potentially suitable area within the species' historical range is 1350.73 km2. However, anthropogenic changes decreased the remaining suitable habitat to 995.04 km2. Most of this area is unprotected and at risk of further adverse anthropogenic effects. Only 91.72 km2 of this area is protected by the Israel Nature and Parks Authority, and 587.11 km2 may be considered indirectly protected because it is within military firing zones. Our study is the first attempt to map the remaining suitable habitat of A. beershebensis based on the results of a species distribution model. The results of this model can assist in prioritizing the protection of areas needed for the conservation of this critically endangered and endemic lizard species.

Experimental evidence of climate change extinction risk in Neotropical montane epiphytes

Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.

New perspectives, additions, and amendments to plant endemism in a North African flora

BACKGROUND

Endemism is essential in biodiversity, biogeography, and conservation tasks. Based on herbarium specimens kept in some local herbaria, many published literature, and available information, we compiled a comprehensive list and an updated assessment of the Egyptian endemic and near-endemic taxa. The application of quantitative approaches to the distribution patterns, conservation status, and habitat preference of endemic taxa in Egypt was provided. Comparisons of the near-endemic taxa with other neighbouring flora were explained. For each taxon, the distribution patterns, most preferable habitat, biological spectrum, and taxa among 14 phytogeographical regions (Operational Geographical Units; OGUs) of Egypt were determined.

RESULTS

In this study, 19 endemics (out of 70) and 76 near-endemics (out of 181) are newly added taxa. Differentiation indices represented the taxonomic degrees of differentiation among endemic taxa. Two different indices were used to assess endemism: single-region endemic taxa (SRET) and multiple-region endemic taxa (MRET). Most endemic and near-endemic taxa were recorded from the mountainous Sinai (S) and the Mareotis sector of the Mediterranean coastal land (Mm). Generally, the most represented families in endemic and near-endemic areas were Asteraceae, Caryophyllaceae, Lamiaceae, and Fabaceae. More than 60% of the endemic taxa occurred in the sandy plains, wadis (desert valleys), and rocky plains and mountains. Applying hierarchical cluster analysis to the occurrences of 70 endemic taxa in the 14 studied OGUs revealed five main floristic groups (I-V), each characterized by certain OGUs. We provided eight groups of near-endemic taxa that represented their extension in neighbouring countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The presented data will help to fill the gap in our knowledge of endemism, provide baseline information to understand biogeographical processes and facilitate further cooperation toward conservation purposes.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution Pattern of Species Richness of Endemic Wetland Plants in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Wetland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the region with the richest biodiversity and the most important ecological barrier function at high altitudes, are highly sensitive to global change, and wetland plants, which are important indicators of wetland ecosystem structure and function, are also threatened by wetland degradation. Therefore, a comprehensive study of changes in the geographical distribution pattern of plant diversity, as well as species loss and turnover of wetlands in the QTP in the context of global climate change is of great importance for the conservation and restoration of wetland ecosystems in the QTP. In this study, species turnover and loss of 395 endemic wetland plants of the QTP were predicted based on the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenarios. The results showed that there were interspecific differences in the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of species, and that most endemic wetland plants would experience range contraction. Under the climate change scenarios, the loss of suitable wetland plant habitat is expected to occur mainly in parts of the southern, north-central and north-western parts of the plateau, while the gain is mainly concentrated in parts of the western Sichuan Plateau, the Qilian Mountains, the Three Rivers Source Region and the northern Tibetan Plateau. Overlaying the analysis of priority protected areas with the established protected areas in the QTP has resulted in the following conservation gaps: the eastern Himalayan region, midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the transition zone between the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Hengduan Mountains, Minshan-Qionglai mountain, Anyemaqen Mountains (southeast) to Bayankala (southeast) mountains, the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains and the northern Tibetan Plateau region. In the future, the study of wetland plant diversity in the QTP and the optimisation of protected areas should focus on the conservation gaps. This study is of great importance for the study and conservation of wetland plant diversity in the QTP, and also provides a scientific basis for predicting the response of wetland plants to climate change in the QTP.

Climate change can disproportionately reduce habitats of stream fishes with restricted ranges in southern South America

Freshwater fishes are among the most threatened taxa worldwide owing to changes in land use, species introductions, and climate change. Although more than half of the freshwater fishes in the Chilean Mediterranean ecoregion are considered vulnerable or endangered, still little is known about their biogeography. Fishes of the family Perciliidae are endemic of this region and ideal cases to study potential implications of global warming given their endangered conservation status, small size, restricted range, and limited dispersal capacity in fragmented habitats. Here, we model the spatial distribution of habitats for Percilia irwini and P. gillissi under current (1970-2000) and future (2050-2080) climatic scenarios (SSP245, SSP585). We implement maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models adapted for stream networks using high-resolution datasets of selected geophysical and climatic variables. At present, both species inhabit relatively low-quality habitats. In the future (SSP585), suitable habitats for P. irwini are predicted to be reduced drastically (99%) with potential local extirpations in its northern range. Similarly, up to 62% of suitable habitats for P. gillissi would also be reduced in the future. Our study provides insights about assessing future threats and vulnerability of endemic, endangered, range-restricted, and small-bodied freshwater species in this region and elsewhere.

On the cost-effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions for reducing disaster risk

The potential of ecosystem-based interventions, also known as Nature-based Solutions (NbS), for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is now recognized by major national policies and international framework agreements. However, there is limited scientific evidence about their economic viability and equity impacts. We examined English-language peer-reviewed studies, published between 2000 and 2021, which undertook economic evaluations of NbS for DRR and CCA. Based on our results, 71 % of studies indicated that NbS have consistently proven to be a cost-effective approach to mitigating hazards and 24 % of studies found NbS cost-effective under certain conditions. The ecosystem-based interventions most frequently found effective in mitigating hazards are associated with mangroves (80 %), forests (77 %), and coastal ecosystems (73 %). Studies comparing the cost-effectiveness of NbS and engineering-based solutions for mitigating certain hazards showed that NbS are no less effective than engineering-based solutions. Among these studies, 65 % found that NbS are always more effective in attenuating hazards compared to engineering-based solutions and 26 % found that NbS are partially more effective. Our findings illustrate a range of factors, including the geographic locations of the NbS analyzed, their contribution to the restoration and increase of biodiversity, their property rights structure, their source of financing, and the economic methodologies employed to assess cost-effectiveness and distributional effects. The geographic location of the NbS observations included in this analysis was examined considering global projected temperature and precipitation changes.

Thermal Tolerance and Preferred Temperature in the Critical Endangered Montseny Brook Newt (Calotriton arnoldi)

Climate change, driven by increased human greenhouse gas emissions since the beginning of the industrial revolution up to the present day, is considered one of the major threats to biodiversity in the twenty-first century. One of the most affected groups is the ectotherms due to their direct dependence on environmental temperatures. In recent years, several studies have analysed the effects of temperature and thermal tolerance on several species of ectotherms. However, there are species whose thermal tolerances are still unknown. Such is the case of the critically endangered species, the Montseny Brook Newt (Calotriton arnoldi), endemic to the Montseny massif in Spain and whose thermal biology is unknown. Its critical situation makes it essential to know its tolerance to cooling, warming and thermopreferendum in water environments where the newt lives. Three experimental procedures were conducted from the western and eastern subspecies of C. arnoldi, considering four classes separately (males, females, juveniles and larvae). The results obtained showed that the CTmax of the species exceeded 31 °C, with a significant difference between the two subspecies. We found that the species tolerates low temperatures (<1 °C) well because the genera Calotriton is adapted to live in cold waters with temperatures below 15 °C. Although the thermopreference of the species was expected to trend to cold temperatures, some individuals chose relatively high temperatures, obtaining a range of 11.7 °C to 21.6 °C. The results presented in this study are an advance in the knowledge of the thermal physiology of this species and support the importance of the temperature of the torrent on its survival. Knowing their thermal limits and their preferred temperature range will help to propose management measures that promote the conservation of streams and riparian forest cover to mitigate temperature increases due to climate change.

Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change

The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and biases and to motivate future data collection. We find that species coverage varies strongly by taxon and underrepresents species at high and low latitudes. Within species, assessments of potential redistributions came from parts of their geographic range that were highly uneven and non-representative. For most species and taxa, studies were strongly biased toward the colder parts of species' distributions and thus significantly underrepresented populations that might get pushed beyond their maximum temperature limits. Coverage of potential leading and trailing geographic range edges under a changing climate was similarly uneven. Only 8% of studied species were assessed at both high and low latitude and elevation range edges, with most only covered at one edge. This suggests that substantial within-species biases exacerbate the considerable geographic and taxonomic among-species unevenness in evidence. Our results open the door for a more quantitative accounting for existing knowledge biases in climate change ecology and a more informed management and conservation. Our findings offer guidance for future data collection that better addresses information gaps and provides a more effective foundation for managing the biological impacts of climate change.

Pushing the envelope: do narrowly and widely distributed Eucalyptus species differ in response to climate warming?

Contemporary climate change will push many tree species into conditions that are outside their current climate envelopes. Using the Eucalyptus genus as a model, we addressed whether species with narrower geographical distributions show constrained ability to cope with warming relative to species with wider distributions, and whether this ability differs among species from tropical and temperate climates. We grew seedlings of widely and narrowly distributed Eucalyptus species from temperate and tropical Australia in a glasshouse under two temperature regimes: the summer temperature at seed origin and +3.5°C. We measured physical traits and leaf-level gas exchange to assess warming influences on growth rates, allocation patterns, and physiological acclimation capacity. Warming generally stimulated growth, such that higher relative growth rates early in development placed seedlings on a trajectory of greater mass accumulation. The growth enhancement under warming was larger among widely than narrowly distributed species and among temperate rather than tropical provenances. The differential growth enhancement was primarily attributable to leaf area production and adjustments of specific leaf area. Our results suggest that tree species, including those with climate envelopes that will be exceeded by contemporary climate warming, possess capacity to physiologically acclimate but may have varying ability to adjust morphology.

Expected potential hemipteran vectors of Xylella fastidiosa bacterium in olive and vineyard groves of the Egyptian northwestern coast

Xylella fastidiosa was recently added to the list of threatening pathogens affecting more than 300 plant hosts. Hemipteran hoppers that feed on xylem have been documented as potential transmitters. Hemipteran hoppers, known vectors for plant pathogens via xylem feeding, pose significant risks to agriculture. Despite their role in transmitting diseases, comprehensive data on their species diversity, distribution, and seasonal patterns, particularly in critical agricultural zones, remain sparse. Hence, the current study was carried out at 14 sites (eight olive farms and six vineyards) during the 2021/2022 season to develop a comprehensive checklist of hopper species present on the Egyptian Northwestern Coast, including their seasonal and location distribution, to serve as a real roadmap supporting control strategies if the pathogen breaches Egyptian borders. Utilizing 560 yellow sticky traps, we collected data seasonally, resulting in the identification of 21 hopper species belonging to 14 genera within four families. Olive orchards harbored a higher number of hoppers compared to vineyards, with Empoasca decipiens being the most dominant species. Our findings provide a foundational checklist and highlight the importance of continued monitoring and detailed studies to support proactive control strategies against potential X. fastidiosa outbreaks. We used 560 yellow sticky traps at 10 traps per site (80 traps for olive orchards and 60 traps for the vineyard per season) throughout the study period. Traps were installed at two levels to catch hopper species harboring tree canopies and ground vegetation. Each trap was replaced every 7 days, and the collected trap sheets were sent to the laboratory for segregation and identification. The data revealed 21 hopper species belonging to 14 genera and 4 families, with cicadellid species being the most represented (14 species). Olive orchards harbored a higher number of hoppers than vineyards. Empoasca decipiens exhibited the highest dominance among the remaining species. Although summer sampling yielded the highest number of hopper species and trapped specimens, seasonal variation in the distribution pattern exhibited non-significant differences (F = 1.7 and P = 0.173). Ras El-Hekma had the highest species representation (21 species), whereas El-Negala had the highest species richness. The lowest species representation at the Barrani location had the highest abundance of caught specimens. Although there were fluctuations in the trapped specimens among the examined locations, statistical analysis revealed no significant differences (F = 0.67, P = 0.58). Cluster analysis revealed distinct groupings with different degrees of similarity for both seasonal and location distributions. The impact of trap height on the hopper capture pattern showed a biased tendency towards low traps. Diversity indices showed no significant differences between the examined locations. Although our results offer a foundation for potential control strategies against X. fastidiosa, further detailed studies are required to fill the knowledge gap regarding its suspected vectors. Such research will guide management strategies that can be applied in cases where this infectious bacterium crosses Egyptian borders.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hypericum perforatum under Climate Change Scenarios Using a Maximum Entropy Model

H. perforatum, as one of the Traditional Chinese Medicinal materials, possesses a variety of pharmacological activities and high medicinal value. However, in recent years, the wild resources of H. perforatum have been severely depleted due to global climate change and human activities, and artificial cultivation faces problems such as unstable yield and active ingredient content. This poses a serious obstacle to the development and utilization of its resources. Therefore, this experiment took H. perforatum as the research object and used 894 distribution records of H. perforatum and 36 climatic environmental factors, using the MaxEnt model and GIS technology to explore the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of H. perforatum. Additionally, by utilizing the principles of ecological niche theory, the potential suitable distribution regions of H. perforatum across past, present, and future timelines were predicted, which can ascertain the dynamics of its spatial distribution patterns and the trend of centroid migration. The results indicate that the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of H. perforatum are solar radiation in April (Srad4), solar radiation in September (Srad9), mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), solar radiation in November (Srad11), annual mean temperature (Bio1), and annual precipitation (Bio12). Under future climate scenarios, there is a remarkable trend of expansion in the suitable distribution areas of H. perforatum. The centroid migration indicates a trend of migration towards the northwest direction and high-altitude areas. These results can provide a scientific basis for formulating conservation and sustainable use management strategies for H. perforatum resources.

Organisms have gravity: taking an organism-centered approach in experimental biology

When you take the time to observe another organism, there is a sort of gravity that can take hold, a mixture of curiosity and connection that expands and strengthens the more you interact with that organism. Yet, in research, a connection with one's study organism can, at times, feel countercultural. Study organisms are sometimes viewed more as tools to conveniently study biological questions. Here, we explicitly highlight the importance of organism-centered research not only in scientific discovery, but also in conservation and in the communication and perception of science.

Disentangling linkages between satellite-derived indicators of forest structure and productivity for ecosystem monitoring

The essential biodiversity variables (EBV) framework has been proposed as a monitoring system of standardized, comparable variables that represents a minimum set of biological information to monitor biodiversity change at large spatial extents. Six classes of EBVs (genetic composition, species populations, species traits, community composition, ecosystem structure and ecosystem function) are defined, a number of which are ideally suited to observation and monitoring by remote sensing systems. We used moderate-resolution remotely sensed indicators representing two ecosystem-level EBV classes (ecosystem structure and function) to assess their complementarity and redundancy across a range of ecosystems encompassing significant environmental gradients. Redundancy analyses found that remote sensing indicators of forest structure were not strongly related to indicators of ecosystem productivity (represented by the Dynamic Habitat Indices; DHIs), with the structural information only explaining 15.7% of the variation in the DHIs. Complex metrics of forest structure, such as aboveground biomass, did not contribute additional information over simpler height-based attributes that can be directly estimated with light detection and ranging (LIDAR) observations. With respect to ecosystem conditions, we found that forest types and ecosystems dominated by coniferous trees had less redundancy between the remote sensing indicators when compared to broadleaf or mixed forest types. Likewise, higher productivity environments exhibited the least redundancy between indicators, in contrast to more environmentally stressed regions. We suggest that biodiversity researchers continue to exploit multiple dimensions of remote sensing data given the complementary information they provide on structure and function focused EBVs, which makes them jointly suitable for monitoring forest ecosystems.

Assessing Reptile Conservation Status under Global Climate Change

Global climate change drives variations in species distribution patterns and affects biodiversity, potentially increasing the risk of species extinction. Investigating the potential distribution range of species under future global climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. In this study, we collected distributional data for 5282 reptile species to assess their conservation status based on distributional ranges using species distribution models. Our predictions indicate that the potential distribution ranges for over half of these species are projected to decrease under different scenarios. Under future scenarios with relatively low carbon emissions, the increase in the number of threatened reptiles is significantly lower, highlighting the importance of human efforts. Surprisingly, we identified some endangered species that are projected to expand their distribution ranges, underscoring the potential positive effects of climate change on some special species. Our findings emphasize the increased extinction risk faced by reptile species due to climate change and highlight the urgent need to mitigate the effects of habitat degradation and human activities on their potential distribution in the future.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

Humidity and temperature preference in two Neotropical species of sand flies

BACKGROUND

Arthropods vector a multitude of human disease-causing organisms, and their geographic ranges are shifting rapidly in response to changing climatic conditions. This is, in turn, altering the landscape of disease risk for human populations that are brought into novel contact with the vectors and the diseases they carry. Sand flies in the genera Lutzomyia and Pintomyia are vectors of serious disease-causing agents such as Leishmania (the etiological agent of leishmaniasis) and may be expanding their range in the face of climate change. Understanding the climatic conditions that vector species both tolerate physiologically and prefer behaviorally is critical to predicting the direction and magnitude of range expansions and the resulting impacts on human health. Temperature and humidity are key factors that determine the geographic extent of many arthropods, including vector species.

METHODS

We characterized the habitat of two species of sand flies, Lutzomyia longipalpis and Pintomyia evansi. Additionally, we studied two behavioral factors of thermal fitness-thermal and humidity preference in two species of sand flies alongside a key aspect of physiological tolerance-desiccation resistance.

RESULTS

We found that Lu. longipalpis is found at cooler and drier conditions than Pi. evansi. Our results also show significant interspecific differences in both behavioral traits, with Pi. evansi preferring warmer, more humid conditions than Lu. longipalpis. Finally, we found that Lu. longipalpis shows greater tolerance to extreme low humidity, and that this is especially pronounced in males of the species.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our results suggest that temperature and humidity conditions are key aspects of the climatic niche of Lutzomyia and Pintomyia sand flies and underscore the value of integrative studies of climatic tolerance and preference in vector biology.

Ecological Niche Differentiation and Response to Climate Change of the African Endemic Family Myrothamnaceae

Studying the ecological niches of species and their responses to climate change can provide better conservation strategies for these species. Myrothamnaceae is endemic to Africa, comprising only two species that belong to Myrothamnus (M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus). These closely related species exhibit allopatric distributions, positioning them as ideal materials for studying the species ecological adaptation. This study explores the ecological niche differentiation between M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus and their response capabilities to future climate change. The results indicate that M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus have undergone niche differentiation. The main drivers of niche differences are the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) for M. flabellifolius, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) for M. moschatus. M. flabellifolius demonstrated a stronger adaptation to environments characterized by lower precipitation, relatively lower temperatures, and greater annual temperature variations compared to M. moschatus. Under future climate scenarios (SSP5-8.5, 2081-2100 years), the results show that approximately 85% of the total suitable habitat for M. flabellifolius will be lost, with an 85% reduction in high-suitability areas and almost complete loss of the original mid-low suitability areas. Concurrently, about 29% of the total suitable habitat for M. moschatus will be lost, with a 34% reduction in high suitability areas and roughly 60% of the original mid-low suitability areas becoming unsuitable. This suggests that M. flabellifolius will face greater threats under future climate change. This study contributes novel insight into niche differentiation in Myrothamnaceae and provides useful information for the conservation of this distinctive African lineage.

Planting long-lived trees in a warming climate: Theory shows the importance of stage-dependent climatic tolerance

Climate change poses a particular threat to long-lived trees, which may not adapt or migrate fast enough to keep up with rising temperatures. Assisted gene flow could facilitate adaptation of populations to future climates by using managed translocation of seeds from a warmer location (provenance) within the current range of a species. Finding the provenance that will perform best in terms of survival or growth is complicated by a trade-off. Because trees face a rapidly changing climate during their long lives, the alleles that confer optimal performance may vary across their lifespan. For instance, trees from warmer provenances could be well adapted as adults but suffer from colder temperatures while juvenile. Here we use a stage-structured model, using both analytical predictions and numerical simulations, to determine which provenance would maximize the survival of a cohort of long-lived trees in a changing climate. We parameterize our simulations using empirically estimated demographic transition matrices for 20 long-lived tree species. Unable to find reliable quantitative estimates of how climatic tolerance changes across stages in these same species, we varied this parameter to study its effect. Both our mathematical model and simulations predict that the best provenance depends strongly on how fast the climate changes and also how climatic tolerance varies across the lifespan of a tree. We thus call for increased empirical efforts to measure how climate tolerance changes over life in long-lived species, as our model suggests that it should strongly influence the best provenance for assisted gene flow.

Identifying global conservation priorities for terrestrial vertebrates based on multiple dimensions of biodiversity

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity calls for an expansion of the current protected areas (PAs) to cover at least 30% of global land and water areas by 2030 (i.e., the 30×30 target). Efficient spatial planning for PA expansion is an urgent need for global conservation practice. A spatial prioritization framework considering multiple dimensions of biodiversity is critical for improving the efficiency of the spatial planning of PAs, yet it remains a challenge. We developed an index for the identification of priority areas based on functionally rare, evolutionarily distinct, and globally endangered species (FREDGE) and applied it to 21,536 terrestrial vertebrates. We determined species distributions, conservation status (global endangerment), molecular phylogenies (evolutionary distinctiveness), and life-history traits (functional rarity). Madagascar, Central America, and the Andes were of high priority for the conservation of multiple dimensions of terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity. However, 68.8% of grid cells in these priority areas had <17% of their area covered by PAs, and these priority areas were under intense anthropogenic and climate change threats. These results highlight the difficulties of conserving multiple dimensions of biodiversity. Our global analyses of the geographical patterns of multiple dimensions of terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity demonstrate the insufficiency of the conservation of different biodiversity dimensions, and our index, based on multiple dimensions of biodiversity, provides a useful tool for guiding future spatial prioritization of PA expansion to achieve the 30×30 target under serious pressures.

Otolith morphogenesis during the early life stages of fish is temperature-dependent: Validation by experimental approach applied to European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax)

Otolith shape is often used as a tool in fish stock identification. The goal of this study was to experimentally assess the influence of changing temperature and ontogenic evolution on the shape component of the European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) otolith during early-life stages. A total of 1079 individuals were reared in a water temperature of 16°C up to 232 days post hatch (dph). During this experiment, several specimens were transferred into tanks with a water temperature of 21°C to obtain at the end of this study four different temperature treatments, each with varying ratios between the number of days at 16 and 21°C. To evaluate the otolith morphogenesis, samples were examined at 43, 72, 86 and 100 dph. The evolution of normalized otolith shape from hatching up to 100 dph showed that there were two main successive changes. First, faster growth in the antero-posterior axis than in the dorso-ventral axis changed the circular-shaped otolith from that observed at hatching and, second, increasing the complexity relating to the area between the rostrum and the anti-rostrum. To test the effect of changing temperature, growing degree-day was used in three linear mixed-effect models. Otolith morphogenesis was positively correlated to growing degree-day, but was also dependent on temperature level. Otolith shape is influenced by environmental factors, particularly temperature, making it an efficient tool for fish stock identification.

What is the role of scientists in meeting the environmental challenges of the twenty-first century?

We live at a time of rapid and accelerating biodiversity loss and climate change that pose an existential risk to the environment, humanity, and social justice and stability. Governmental responses are seen by many citizens, including scientists, as inadequate, leading to an increase in civil protests and activism by those calling for urgent action to effect change. Here we consider the role(s) of scientists in responding to those challenges and engaging with policy given that when a scientist moves into political advocacy, reflecting their values and preferences, their objectivity and the value of scientific opinion may be seen as compromised. We then consider whether institutional setting and career stage may affect decisions to engage with policy or activism. Against this backcloth, we ask whether it is sufficient for scientists to act as impartial 'brokers' in societal decisions, arguing they should consider acting as 'Honest Advocates' in policy formation in some circumstances. Such advocacy can contribute to decision-making in a purposeful, well-informed manner, doing societal good without damaging the reputation of science. We encourage scientists to each reflect on their multiple roles in addressing the environmental challenges of our time.

Unraveling the unknown: Adaptive spatial planning to enhance climate resilience for the endangered Swamp Grass-babbler (Laticilla cinerascens) with habitat connectivity and complexity approach

The endangered and poorly known Swamp Grass-babbler, Laticilla cinerascens (Passeriformes: Pellorneidae), confronts critical threats and vulnerability due to its specific habitat requirements and restricted populations in the northeastern region of the Indian Subcontinent. This study investigates the distribution of the species, habitat quality, geometry and shape complexity of connectivity among the protected areas (PAs), and responses to climate change in Northeast India under different climate change pathways by utilizing ensemble distribution models, and ecological metrics. From the total distribution extent (1,42,000 km2), approximately 9366 km2 (6.59 %) is identified as the suitable habitat for this threatened species. Historically centered around Dibru Saikhowa National Park (DSNP), the species faced a drastic decline due to anthropogenic activities and alteration in land use and lover cover. The study also reveals a significant decline in suitable habitat for L. cinerascens in future climate scenarios, with alarming reductions under SSP126 (>10 % in the timeframe 2041-2060 and > 30 % from 2061 to 2080), SSP245 (>90 % in both time periods), and SSP585 (>90 % in both timeframes) from the present scenario. At present, DSNP has the most suitable habitat within the distribution range but is projected to decline (>90 %) under more severe climate change scenarios, as observed in other PAs. Landscape fragmentation analysis indicates a shift in habitat geometry, highlighting the intricate impact of climate change. It predicts a substantial 343 % increase (in the SSP126) in small habitat patches in the future. Connectivity analysis among PAs shows a significant shift, with a decline exceeding 20 %. The analysis of shape complexity and connectivity geometry reveals a significant increase of over 220 % in the fragmentation of connectivity among PAs between 2061 and 2080 under the SSP585 climate change scenario compared to the present conditions. The study underscores the urgent need for conservation actions, emphasizing the complex interplay of climate change, habitat suitability, and fragmentation. Prioritizing PAs with suitable habitats and assessing their connectivity is crucial. Adaptive management strategies are essential to address ongoing environmental changes and safeguard biodiversity. Future research in critical areas is needed to establish long-term monitoring programs to lead/extend effective conservation strategies.

Assessment of Suitable Habitat of the Demoiselle Crane (Anthropoides virgo) in the Wake of Climate Change: A Study of Its Wintering Refugees in Pakistan

The inevitable impacts of climate change have reverberated across ecosystems and caused substantial global biodiversity loss. Climate-induced habitat loss has contributed to range shifts at both species and community levels. Given the importance of identifying suitable habitats for at-risk species, it is imperative to assess potential current and future distributions, and to understand influential environmental factors. Like many species, the Demoiselle crane is not immune to climatic pressures. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan are known wintering grounds for this species. Given that Pakistan is among the top five countries facing devastating effects of climate change, this study sought to conduct species distribution modeling under climate change using data collected during 4 years of field surveys. We developed a Maximum Entropy distribution model to predict the current and projected future distribution of the species across the study area. Future habitat projections for 2050 and 2070 were carried out using two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) under three global circulation models, including HADGEM2-AO, BCC-CSM1-1, and CCSM4. The most influential factors shaping Demoiselle Crane habitat suitability included the temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, terrain ruggedness index, and human population density, all of which contributed significantly to the suitability (81.3%). The model identified 35% of the study area as moderately suitable (134,068 km2) and highly suitable (27,911 km2) habitat for the species under current climatic conditions. Under changing climate scenarios, our model predicted a major loss of the species' current suitable habitat, with shrinkage and shift towards western-central areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan boarder. The RCP 8.5, which is the extreme climate change scenario, portrays particularly severe consequences, with habitat losses reaching 65% in 2050 and 85% in 2070. This comprehensive study provides useful insights into the Demoiselle Crane habitat's current and future dynamics in Pakistan.

Predicting the geographical distribution and niche characteristics of Cotoneaster multiflorus based on future climate change

Introduction

Arid and semi-arid regions are climate-sensitive areas, which account for about 40% of the world's land surface area. Future environment change will impact the environment of these area, resulting in a sharp expansion of arid and semi-arid regions. Cotoneaster multiflorus is a multi-functional tree species with extreme cold, drought and barren resistance, as well as ornamental and medicinal functions. It was found to be one of the most important tree species for ecological restoration in arid and semi-arid areas. However, bioclimatic factors play an important role in the growth, development and distribution of plants. Therefore, exploring the response pattern and ecological adaptability of C. multiflorus to future climate change is important for the long-term ecological restoration of C. multiflorus in arid and semi-arid areas.

Methods

In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of C. multiflorus in China under different climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt 2.0 model, and discussed its adaptability and the major factors affecting its geographical distribution.

Results

The major factors that explained the geographical distribution of C. multiflorus were Annual precipitation (Bio12), Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11). However, C. multiflorus could thrive in environments where Annual precipitation (Bio12) >150 mm, Min air temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) > -42.5°C, and Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) > -20°C, showcasing its characteristics of cold and drought tolerance. Under different future climate scenarios, the total suitable area for C. multiflorus ranged from 411.199×104 km² to 470.191×104 km², which was 0.8~6.14 percentage points higher than the current total suitable area. Additionally, it would further shift towards higher latitude.

Discussion

The MaxEnt 2.0 model predicted the potential distribution pattern of C. multiflorus in the context of future climate change, and identified its ecological adaptability and the main climatic factors affecting its distribution. This study provides an important theoretical basis for natural vegetation restoration in arid and semi-arid areas.

Temperature-driven homogenization of an ant community over 60 years in a montane ecosystem

Identifying the mechanisms underlying the changes in the distribution of species is critical to accurately predict how species have responded and will respond to climate change. Here, we take advantage of a late-1950s study on ant assemblages in a canyon near Boulder, Colorado, USA, to understand how and why species distributions have changed over a 60-year period. Community composition changed over 60 years with increasing compositional similarity among ant assemblages. Community composition differed significantly between the periods, with aspect and tree cover influencing composition. Species that foraged in broader temperature ranges became more widespread over the 60-year period. Our work highlights that shifts in community composition and biotic homogenization can occur even in undisturbed areas without strong habitat degradation. We also show the power of pairing historical and contemporary data and encourage more mechanistic studies to predict species changes under climate change.

Anthropogenic and climatic factors interact to influence reproductive timing and effort

Reproduction, although absolutely essential to a species' persistence, is in itself challenging. As anthropogenic change increasingly affects every landscape on Earth, it is critical to understand how specific pressures impact the reproductive efforts of individuals, which directly contribute to the success or failure of populations. However, organisms rarely encounter a single burden at a time, and the interactions of environmental challenges can have compounding effects. Understanding environmental and physiological pressures is difficult because they are often context-dependent and not generalizable, but long-term monitoring across variable landscapes and weather patterns can improve our understanding of these complex interactions. We tested the effects of urbanization, climate, and individual condition on the reproductive investment of wild side-blotched lizards (Uta stansburiana) by measuring physiological/reproductive metrics from six populations in urban and rural areas over six consecutive years of variable precipitation. We observed that reproductive stage affected body condition, corticosterone concentration, and oxidative stress. We also observed that reproductive patterns differed between urban and rural populations depending on rainfall, with rural animals increasing reproductive investment during rainier years compared to urban conspecifics, and that reproductive decisions appeared to occur early in the reproductive process. These results demonstrate the plastic nature of a generalist species optimizing lifetime fitness under varying conditions.

Metabolic adjustments to winter severity in two geographically separated great tit (Parus major) populations

Understanding the potential limits placed on organisms by their ecophysiology is crucial for predicting their responses to varying environmental conditions. A main hypothesis for explaining avian thermoregulatory mechanisms is the aerobic capacity model, which posits a positive correlation between basal (basal metabolic rate [BMR]) and summit (Msum) metabolism. Most evidence for this hypothesis, however, comes from interspecific comparisons, and the ecophysiological underpinnings of avian thermoregulatory capacities hence remain controversial. Indeed, studies have traditionally relied on between-species comparisons, although, recently, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of intraspecific variation in ecophysiological responses. Therefore, here, we focused on great tits (Parus major), measuring BMR and Msum during winter in two populations from two different climates: maritime-temperate (Gontrode, Belgium) and continental (Zvenigorod, Russia). We tested for the presence of intraspecific geographical variation in metabolic rates and assessed the predictions following the aerobic capacity model. We found that birds from the maritime-temperate climate (Gontrode) showed higher BMR, whereas conversely, great tits from Zvenigorod showed higher levels of Msum. Within each population, our data did not fully support the aerobic capacity model's predictions. We argued that the decoupling of BMR and Msum observed may be caused by different selective forces acting on these metabolic rates, with birds from the continental-climate Zvenigorod population facing the need to conserve energy for surviving long winter nights (by keeping their BMR at low levels) while simultaneously being able to generate more heat (i.e., a high Msum) to withstand cold spells.

Climate change-associated declines in water clarity impair feeding by common loons

Climate change has myriad impacts on ecosystems, but the mechanisms by which it affects individual species can be difficult to pinpoint. One strategy to discover such mechanisms is to identify a specific ecological factor related to survival or reproduction and determine how that factor is affected by climate. Here we used Landsat imagery to calculate water clarity for 127 lakes in northern Wisconsin from 1995 to 2021 and thus investigate the effect of clarity on the body condition of an aquatic visual predator, the common loon (Gavia immer). In addition, we examined rainfall and temperature as potential predictors of water clarity. Body mass tracked July water clarity strongly in loon chicks, which grow chiefly in that month, but weakly in adult males and females. Long-term mean water clarity was negatively related to chick mass but positively related to adult male mass, suggesting that loons foraging in generally clear lakes enjoy good foraging conditions in the long run but might be sensitive to perturbations in clarity during chick-rearing. Finally, chick mass was positively related to the density of docks, perhaps because angling removes large fishes and thus boosts the abundance of the small fishes on which chicks depend. Water clarity itself declined strongly from 1995 to 2021, was negatively related to July rainfall, and was positively related to July air temperature. Our findings identified both long-term and short-term water clarity as strong predictors of loon foraging efficiency, and suggest that climate change, through water clarity, impacts freshwater ecosystems profoundly. Moreover, our results identified the recent decrease in water clarity as a likely cause of population decline in common loons.