Justify your alpha

A Systematic Review on the Evolution of Power Analysis Practices in Psychological Research

Performing hypothesis tests with adequate statistical power is indispensable for psychological research. In response to several large-scale replication projects following the replication crisis, concerns about the root causes of this crisis - such as questionable research practices (QRPs) - have grown. While initial efforts primarily addressed the inflation of the type I error rate of research due to QRPs, recent attention has shifted to the adverse consequences of low statistical power. In this paper we first argue how underpowered studies, in combination with publication bias, contribute to a literature rife with false positive results and overestimated effect sizes. We then examine whether the prevalence of power analyses in psychological research has effectively increased over time in response to the increased awareness regarding these phenomena. To address this, we conducted a systematic review of 903 published empirical articles across four APA-disciplines, comparing 453 papers published in 2015-2016, with 450 papers from 2020-2021. Although the prevalence of power analysis across different domains in psychology has increased over time (from 9.5% to 30%), it remains insufficient overall. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings and elaborating on some alternative methods to a priori power analysis that can help ensure sufficient statistical power.

"Sentio ergo est": Unmasking the psychological realities of emotional misperception

Perception is an important aspect of our personal lives, interpersonal interactions and professional activities and performance. A large body of psychological research has been dedicated to exploring how perception happens, whether and when it involves conscious awareness and what are the physiological correlates, such as skin-conductance and heart-rate responses, that occur when we perceive particularly emotional elicitors. A more recent and less explored question in psychological science is how and when misperception happens, and what are the physiological characteristics of the misperception of emotion. Therefore, in the current study, for the first time in relevant research, we recruited participants using trial-contour power calculations for false-positive responses, such as incorrectly reporting that a brief backward masked face was presented and thoroughly explored these responses. We reported that false-positive responses for backward masked emotional faces were characterised by pre-trial arousal, and post-trial arousal increases, high confidence ratings, and corresponding to stimulus-type misperception valence and arousal participant ratings. These outcomes were most pronounced for false-positive responses for fearful faces. Based on these findings, we discussed the possibility of a mechanism for partial self-encapsulated emotional-experiential apperception and the possibility of a fear primacy socio-emotional response module during combined visual ambiguity and high psychophysiological arousal.

Credibility of results in emotion science: a Z-curve analysis of results in the journals Cognition & Emotion and Emotion

Failed replication attempts have raised concerns over the prevalence of publication bias and false positive results in the psychological literature. Using a sample of 65,970 test statistics from Cognition & Emotion and Emotion, this article assesses the credibility of results in emotional research. All test statistics were converted to z-scores and analysed with Z-curve. A Z-curve analysis provides information about the amount of selection bias, the expected replication rate and the false positive risk. Lastly, Z-curve is used to determine an alpha level that lessens the false positive risk without unnecessary loss of power. The results show evidence of selection bias in emotional research, but trend analyses showed a decrease over time. Based on the z-curve estimates, we predict a 15% and 70% success rate in replication studies. Therefore, replication studies should increase sample sizes to avoid type-II errors. The risk of false positives with the traditional alpha level of 5% is between 5% and 33%. Lowering alpha to 1% is sufficient to reduce the false positive risk to less than 5%. In sum, our findings may alleviate concerns about high false positive rates among emotional researchers. However, selection bias and low power remain challenges to be addressed.

Wide-spread brain alterations early after the onset of Crohn's disease in children in remission-a pilot study

Background

The research on possible cerebral involvement in Crohn's disease (CD) has been largely marginalized and failed to capitalize on recent developments in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

Objective

This cross-sectional pilot study searches for eventual macrostructural and microstructural brain affection in CD in remission and early after the disease onset.

Methods

14 paediatric CD patients and 14 healthy controls underwent structural, diffusion weighted imaging and quantitative relaxation metrics acquisition, both conventional free precession and adiabatic rotating frame transverse and longitudinal relaxation time constants as markers of myelination, iron content and cellular loss.

Results

While no inter-group differences in cortical thickness and relaxation metrics were found, lower mean diffusivity and higher intracellular volume fraction were detected in CD patients over vast cortical regions essential for the regulation of the autonomous nervous system, sensorimotor processing, cognition and behavior, pointing to wide-spread cytotoxic oedema in the absence of demyelination, iron deposition or atrophy.

Conclusion

Although still requiring further validation in longitudinal projects enrolling larger numbers of subjects, this study provides an indication of wide-spread cortical oedema in CD patients very early after the disease onset and sets possible directions for further research.

Dissociable Effects of Urgency and Evidence Accumulation during Reaching Revealed by Dynamic Multisensory Integration

When making perceptual decisions, humans combine information across sensory modalities dependent on their respective uncertainties. However, it remains unknown how the brain integrates multisensory feedback during movement and which factors besides sensory uncertainty influence sensory contributions. We performed two reaching experiments on healthy adults to investigate whether movement corrections to combined visual and mechanical perturbations scale with visual uncertainty. To describe the dynamics of multimodal feedback responses, we further varied movement time and visual feedback duration during the movement. The results of our first experiment show that the contribution of visual feedback decreased with uncertainty. Additionally, we observed a transient phase during which visual feedback responses were stronger during faster movements. In a follow-up experiment, we found that the contribution of vision increased more quickly during slow movements when we presented the visual feedback for a longer time. Muscle activity corresponding to these visual responses exhibited modulations with sensory uncertainty and movement speed ca. 100 ms following the onset of the visual feedback. Using an optimal feedback control model, we show that the increased response to visual feedback during fast movements can be explained by an urgency-dependent increase in control gains. Further, the fact that a longer viewing duration increased the visual contributions suggests that the brain accumulates sensory information over time to estimate the state of the arm during reaching. Our results provide additional evidence concerning the link between reaching control and decision-making, both of which appear to be influenced by sensory evidence accumulation and response urgency.

Heterogeneity, Bayesian thinking, and phenotyping in critical care: A primer

PURPOSE

To familiarize clinicians with the emerging concepts in critical care research of Bayesian thinking and personalized medicine through phenotyping and explain their clinical relevance by highlighting how they address the issues of frequent negative trials and heterogeneity of treatment effect.

SUMMARY

The past decades have seen many negative (effect-neutral) critical care trials of promising interventions, culminating in calls to improve the field's research through adopting Bayesian thinking and increasing personalization of critical care medicine through phenotyping. Bayesian analyses add interpretive power for clinicians as they summarize treatment effects based on probabilities of benefit or harm, contrasting with conventional frequentist statistics that either affirm or reject a null hypothesis. Critical care trials are beginning to include prospective Bayesian analyses, and many trials have undergone reanalysis with Bayesian methods. Phenotyping seeks to identify treatable traits to target interventions to patients expected to derive benefit. Phenotyping and subphenotyping have gained prominence in the most syndromic and heterogenous critical care disease states, acute respiratory distress syndrome and sepsis. Grouping of patients has been informative across a spectrum of clinically observable physiological parameters, biomarkers, and genomic data. Bayesian thinking and phenotyping are emerging as elements of adaptive clinical trials and predictive enrichment, paving the way for a new era of high-quality evidence. These concepts share a common goal, sifting through the noise of heterogeneity in critical care to increase the value of existing and future research.

CONCLUSION

The future of critical care medicine will inevitably involve modification of statistical methods through Bayesian analyses and targeted therapeutics via phenotyping. Clinicians must be familiar with these systems that support recommendations to improve decision-making in the gray areas of critical care practice.

Power to Detect What? Considerations for Planning and Evaluating Sample Size

ACADEMIC ABSTRACT

In the wake of the replication crisis, social and personality psychologists have increased attention to power analysis and the adequacy of sample sizes. In this article, we analyze current controversies in this area, including choosing effect sizes, why and whether power analyses should be conducted on already-collected data, how to mitigate the negative effects of sample size criteria on specific kinds of research, and which power criterion to use. For novel research questions, we advocate that researchers base sample sizes on effects that are likely to be cost-effective for other people to implement (in applied settings) or to study (in basic research settings), given the limitations of interest-based minimums or field-wide effect sizes. We discuss two alternatives to power analysis, precision analysis and sequential analysis, and end with recommendations for improving the practices of researchers, reviewers, and journal editors in social-personality psychology.

PUBLIC ABSTRACT

Recently, social-personality psychology has been criticized for basing some of its conclusions on studies with low numbers of participants. As a result, power analysis, a mathematical way to ensure that a study has enough participants to reliably "detect" a given size of psychological effect, has become popular. This article describes power analysis and discusses some controversies about it, including how researchers should derive assumptions about effect size, and how the requirements of power analysis can be applied without harming research on hard-to-reach and marginalized communities. For novel research questions, we advocate that researchers base sample sizes on effects that are likely to be cost-effective for other people to implement (in applied settings) or to study (in basic research settings). We discuss two alternatives to power analysis, precision analysis and sequential analysis, and end with recommendations for improving the practices of researchers, reviewers, and journal editors in social-personality psychology.

Short-term effects of Pilates-based exercise on upper limb strength and function in people with Parkinson's disease

BACKGROUND

People with Parkinson's disease (PD) have impaired upper limb motor coordination, limiting the execution of activities of daily living. This study investigated the feasibility and safety of a short-term Pilates-based exercise program in the treatment of upper limb motor coordination for people with PD.

METHODS

Fifteen patients - n (%) 4 women/11 men (27/73), median [interquartile range] age 66 [9] years - participated in this quasi-experimental (before-and-after) clinical trial. Patients underwent a 6-week (30 min/day, 3 days/week) Pilates exercise program using Reformer, Cadillac, Chair, and Barrel equipment. Feasibility was evaluated by adherence to the program and the ability to perform the exercises including progressions on difficulty. Safety was evaluated based on self-reported adverse events. Clinical and functional trends before and after the intervention were also computed regarding handgrip strength (HGS), fine motor coordination (9 Hole Peg Test; 9HPT), bradykinesia (Movement Disorder Society - Unified Parkinson's disease Rating Scale; MDS-UPDRS), and upper limb functionality (Test D'évaluation des Membres Supérieurs des Personnes Âgées, TEMPA).

RESULTS

Of the 18 Pilates sessions, exercise adherence was 100%. The only adverse event observed was mild muscle pain. Pre-post differences were observed only for body bradykinesia and hypokinesia (1.0 [0.0] vs. 0.0 [1.0] s, adjusted p = 0.048).

CONCLUSIONS

A short-term Pilates-based exercise program in the treatment of upper limb muscle strength, manual dexterity, bradykinesia, and functionality is feasible and safe for people with PD. Changes in upper limb bradykinesia encourage randomized clinical trials.

Wings of Change: aPKC/FoxP-dependent plasticity in steering motor neurons underlies operant self-learning in Drosophila

Background

Motor learning is central to human existence, such as learning to speak or walk, sports moves, or rehabilitation after injury. Evidence suggests that all forms of motor learning share an evolutionarily conserved molecular plasticity pathway. Here, we present novel insights into the neural processes underlying operant self-learning, a form of motor learning in the fruit fly Drosophila.

Methods

We operantly trained wild type and transgenic Drosophila fruit flies, tethered at the torque meter, in a motor learning task that required them to initiate and maintain turning maneuvers around their vertical body axis (yaw torque). We combined this behavioral experiment with transgenic peptide expression, CRISPR/Cas9-mediated, spatio-temporally controlled gene knock-out and confocal microscopy.

Results

We find that expression of atypical protein kinase C (aPKC) in direct wing steering motoneurons co-expressing the transcription factor FoxP is necessary for this type of motor learning and that aPKC likely acts via non-canonical pathways. We also found that it takes more than a week for CRISPR/Cas9-mediated knockout of FoxP in adult animals to impair motor learning, suggesting that adult FoxP expression is required for operant self-learning.

Conclusions

Our experiments suggest that, for operant self-learning, a type of motor learning in Drosophila, co-expression of atypical protein kinase C (aPKC) and the transcription factor FoxP is necessary in direct wing steering motoneurons. Some of these neurons control the wing beat amplitude when generating optomotor responses, and we have discovered modulation of optomotor behavior after operant self-learning. We also discovered that aPKC likely acts via non-canonical pathways and that FoxP expression is also required in adult flies.

Farnesyl Diphosphate Synthase Gene Associated with Loss of Bone Mass Density and Alendronate Treatment Failure in Patients with Primary Osteoporosis

Aminobisphosphonates (NBPs) are the first-choice medication for osteoporosis (OP); NBP treatment aims at increasing bone mineral density (BMD) by inhibiting the activity of farnesyl diphosphate synthase (FDPS) enzyme in osteoclasts. Despite its efficacy, inadequate response to the drug and side effects have been reported. The A allele of the rs2297480 (A > C) SNP, found in the regulatory region of the FDPS gene, is associated with reduced gene transcription. This study evaluates the FDPS variant rs2297480 (A > C) association with OP patients' response to alendronate sodium treatment. A total of 304 OP patients and 112 controls were enrolled; patients treated with alendronate sodium for two years were classified, according to BMD variations at specific regions (lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck (FN) and total hip (TH), as responders (OP-R) (n = 20) and non-responders (OP-NR) (n = 40). We observed an association of CC genotype with treatment failure (p = 0.045), followed by a BMD decrease in the regions L1-L4 (CC = -2.21% ± 2.56; p = 0.026) and TH (CC = -2.06% ± 1.84; p = 0.015) after two years of alendronate sodium treatment. Relative expression of the FDPS gene was also evaluated in OP-R and OP-NR patients. Higher expression of the FDPS gene was also observed in OP-NR group (FC = 1.84 ± 0.77; p = 0.006) when compared to OP-R. In conclusion, the influence observed of FDPS expression and the rs2897480 variant on alendronate treatment highlights the importance of a genetic approach to improve the efficacy of treatment for primary osteoporosis.

Narcissism Moderates the Association Between Autonomy-Supportive Parenting and Adolescents' Prosocial Behavior

Prior research has separately investigated the associations of autonomy-supportive parenting and narcissism with adolescents' prosocial behavior, but their joint relationships with prosocial behavior have been rarely examined. The present research aimed to expand the existing literature by scrutinizing the main and interactive associations of autonomy-supportive parenting and narcissism with adolescents' prosocial behavior. In so doing, a series of four studies (collectively N = 2023), combining cross-sectional, longitudinal, and experimental designs, were conducted. The adolescents' mean age varied from 12.42 to 15.70 years, with a balanced representation of the sexes in those studies. Converging results across four studies showed that high narcissism magnified the positive association between autonomy-supportive parenting and adolescents' prosocial behavior. The interaction pattern presented also suggested adolescents with high narcissism scores were more affected than others-both for better and for worse-by autonomy-supportive parenting, although this interaction might be specific to particular facets of prosocial behavior. These results were robust after adjusting for a few key covariates and survived a set of additional analyses. The present findings provide a novel avenue to explain individual differences linking prosocial behavior with those two factors and further advance precise, individualized strategies to promote adolescents' prosocial behavior.

Machine learning classification of autism spectrum disorder based on reciprocity in naturalistic social interactions

Autism spectrum disorder is characterized by impaired social communication and interaction. As a neurodevelopmental disorder typically diagnosed during childhood, diagnosis in adulthood is preceded by a resource-heavy clinical assessment period. The ongoing developments in digital phenotyping give rise to novel opportunities within the screening and diagnostic process. Our aim was to quantify multiple non-verbal social interaction characteristics in autism and build diagnostic classification models independent of clinical ratings. We analyzed videos of naturalistic social interactions in a sample including 28 autistic and 60 non-autistic adults paired in dyads and engaging in two conversational tasks. We used existing open-source computer vision algorithms for objective annotation to extract information based on the synchrony of movement and facial expression. These were subsequently used as features in a support vector machine learning model to predict whether an individual was part of an autistic or non-autistic interaction dyad. The two prediction models based on reciprocal adaptation in facial movements, as well as individual amounts of head and body motion and facial expressiveness showed the highest precision (balanced accuracies: 79.5% and 68.8%, respectively), followed by models based on reciprocal coordination of head (balanced accuracy: 62.1%) and body (balanced accuracy: 56.7%) motion, as well as intrapersonal coordination processes (balanced accuracy: 44.2%). Combinations of these models did not increase overall predictive performance. Our work highlights the distinctive nature of non-verbal behavior in autism and its utility for digital phenotyping-based classification. Future research needs to both explore the performance of different prediction algorithms to reveal underlying mechanisms and interactions, as well as investigate the prospective generalizability and robustness of these algorithms in routine clinical care.

Delivery of pleasant stroke touch via robot in older adults

Touch care has clinically positive effects on older adults. Touch can be delivered using robots, addressing the lack of caregivers. A recent study of younger participants showed that stroke touch delivered via robot produced subjective and physiologically positive emotional responses similar to those evoked by human touch. However, whether robotic touch can elicit similar responses in older adults remains unknown. We investigated this topic by assessing subjective rating (valence and arousal) and physiological signals [corrugator and zygomatic electromyography (EMG) and skin conductance response (SCR)] to gentle stroking motions delivered to the backs of older participants by robot and human agents at two different speeds: 2.6 and 8.5 cm/s. Following the recent study, the participants were informed that only the robot strokes them. We compared the difference between the younger (their data from the previous study) and the older participants in their responses when the two agents (a robot and a human) stroked them. Subjectively, data from both younger and older participants showed that 8.5 cm/s stroking was more positive and arousing than 2.6 cm/s stroking for both human and robot agents. Physiologically, data from both younger and older participants showed that 8.5 cm/s stroking induced weaker corrugator EMG activity and stronger SCR activity than the 2.6 cm/s stroking for both agents. These results demonstrate that the overall patterns of the older groups responses were similar to those of the younger group, and suggest that robot-delivered stroke touch can elicit pleasant emotional responses in older adults.

On the use of receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to determine the most appropriate p value significance threshold

BACKGROUND

p value is the most common statistic reported in scientific research articles. Choosing the conventional threshold of 0.05 commonly used for the p value in research articles, is unfounded. Many researchers have tried to provide a reasonable threshold for the p value; some proposed a lower threshold, eg, 0.005. However, none of the proposals has gained universal acceptance. Using the analogy between the diagnostic tests with continuous results and statistical inference tests of hypothesis, I wish to present a method to calculate the most appropriate p value significance threshold using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

As with diagnostic tests where the most appropriate cut-off values are different depending on the situation, there is no unique cut-off for the p significance threshold. Unlike the previous proposals, which mostly suggest lowering the threshold to a fixed value (eg, from 0.05 to 0.005), the most appropriate p significance threshold proposed here, in most instances, is much less than the conventional cut-off of 0.05 and varies from study to study and from statistical test to test, even within a single study. The proposed method provides the minimum weighted sum of type I and type II errors.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the perplexity involved in using the frequentist statistics in a correct way (dealing with different p significance thresholds, even in a single study), it seems that the p value is no longer a proper statistic to be used in our research; it should be replaced by alternative methods, eg, Bayesian methods.

A New Look at P Values for Randomized Clinical Trials

BACKGROUND: We have examined the primary efficacy results of 23,551 randomized clinical trials from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. METHODS: We estimate that the great majority of trials have much lower statistical power for actual effects than the 80 or 90% for the stated effect sizes. Consequently, “statistically significant” estimates tend to seriously overestimate actual treatment effects, “nonsignificant” results often correspond to important effects, and efforts to replicate often fail to achieve “significance” and may even appear to contradict initial results. To address these issues, we reinterpret the P value in terms of a reference population of studies that are, or could have been, in the Cochrane Database. RESULTS: This leads to an empirical guide for the interpretation of an observed P value from a “typical” clinical trial in terms of the degree of overestimation of the reported effect, the probability of the effect’s sign being wrong, and the predictive power of the trial. CONCLUSIONS: Such an interpretation provides additional insight about the effect under study and can guard medical researchers against naive interpretations of the P value and overoptimistic effect sizes. Because many research fields suffer from low power, our results are also relevant outside the medical domain. (Funded by the U.S. Office of Naval Research.)

baymedr: an R package and web application for the calculation of Bayes factors for superiority, equivalence, and non-inferiority designs

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials often seek to determine the superiority, equivalence, or non-inferiority of an experimental condition (e.g., a new drug) compared to a control condition (e.g., a placebo or an already existing drug). The use of frequentist statistical methods to analyze data for these types of designs is ubiquitous even though they have several limitations. Bayesian inference remedies many of these shortcomings and allows for intuitive interpretations, but are currently difficult to implement for the applied researcher.

RESULTS

We outline the frequentist conceptualization of superiority, equivalence, and non-inferiority designs and discuss its disadvantages. Subsequently, we explain how Bayes factors can be used to compare the relative plausibility of competing hypotheses. We present baymedr, an R package and web application, that provides user-friendly tools for the computation of Bayes factors for superiority, equivalence, and non-inferiority designs. Instructions on how to use baymedr are provided and an example illustrates how existing results can be reanalyzed with baymedr.

CONCLUSIONS

Our baymedr R package and web application enable researchers to conduct Bayesian superiority, equivalence, and non-inferiority tests. baymedr is characterized by a user-friendly implementation, making it convenient for researchers who are not statistical experts. Using baymedr, it is possible to calculate Bayes factors based on raw data and summary statistics.

Impairments of saccadic and reaching adaptation in essential tremor are linked to movement execution

Essential tremor (ET) is a neurological disorder characterized by involuntary oscillations of the limbs. Previous studies have hypothesized that ET is a cerebellar disorder and reported impairments in motor adaptation. However, recent advances have highlighted that motor adaptation involves several components linked to anticipation and control, all dependent on cerebellum. We studied the contribution of both components in adaptation to better understand the adaptation impairments observed in ET from a behavioral perspective. To address this question, we investigated behavioral markers of adaptation in ET patients (n = 20) and age-matched neurologically intact volunteers (n = 20) in saccadic and upper limb adaptation tasks, probing compensation for target jumps and for velocity-dependent force fields, respectively. We found that both groups adapted their movements to the novel contexts; however, ET patients adapted to a lesser extent compared with neurologically intact volunteers. Importantly, components of the movement linked to anticipation were preserved in the ET group, whereas components linked to movement execution appeared responsible for the adaptation deficit in this group. Altogether, our results suggest that execution deficits may be a specific functional consequence of the alteration of neural pathways associated with ET.NEW & NOTEWORTHY We tested essential tremor patients' adaptation abilities in classical tasks including saccadic adaptation to target jumps and reaching adaptation to force field disturbances. Patients' adaptation was present but impaired in both tasks. Interestingly, the deficits were mainly present during movement execution, whereas the anticipatory components of movements were similar to neurologically intact volunteers. These findings reinforce the hypothesis of a cerebellar origin for essential tremor and detail the motor adaptation impairments previously found in this disorder.

Bayesian Statistics Improves Biological Interpretability of Metabolomics Data from Human Cohorts

Univariate analyses of metabolomics data currently follow a frequentist approach, using p-values to reject a null hypothesis. We here propose the use of Bayesian statistics to quantify evidence supporting different hypotheses and discriminate between the null hypothesis versus the lack of statistical power. We used metabolomics data from three independent human cohorts that studied the plasma signatures of subjects with myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). The data are publicly available, covering 84-197 subjects in each study with 562-888 identified metabolites of which 777 were common between the two studies and 93 were compounds reported in all three studies. We show how Bayesian statistics incorporates results from one study as "prior information" into the next study, thereby improving the overall assessment of the likelihood of finding specific differences between plasma metabolite levels. Using classic statistics and Benjamini-Hochberg FDR-corrections, Study 1 detected 18 metabolic differences and Study 2 detected no differences. Using Bayesian statistics on the same data, we found a high likelihood that 97 compounds were altered in concentration in Study 2, after using the results of Study 1 as the prior distributions. These findings included lower levels of peroxisome-produced ether-lipids, higher levels of long-chain unsaturated triacylglycerides, and the presence of exposome compounds that are explained by the difference in diet and medication between healthy subjects and ME/CFS patients. Although Study 3 reported only 92 compounds in common with the other two studies, these major differences were confirmed. We also found that prostaglandin F2alpha, a lipid mediator of physiological relevance, was reduced in ME/CFS patients across all three studies. The use of Bayesian statistics led to biological conclusions from metabolomic data that were not found through frequentist approaches. We propose that Bayesian statistics is highly useful for studies with similar research designs if similar metabolomic assays are used.

Regional differences in the assessment of depressive symptoms in the former German Democratic Republic and Federal Republic of Germany

AIM

The present study investigated regional differences in response behaviour for the Patient Health Quetionnaire-9. We tested for measurement invariance and differential item and test functioning between formerly divided East- and West-Germany: the former German Democratic Republic and Federal Republic of Germany. Diverging socialization experiences in socialist versus capitalist and collectivist versus individualist systems may affect culturally sensitive assessments of mental health.

SUBJECT AND METHODS

To test this empirically, we used factor analytic and item-response-theoretic frameworks, differentiating between East- and West-Germans by birthplace and current residence based on several representative samples of the German general population (n = 3 802).

RESULTS

Across all survey, we discovered slightly higher depression sum scores for East- versus West-Germans. The majority of items did not display differential item functioning-with a crucial exception in the assessment of self-harm tendencies. The scale scores were largely invariant exhibiting only small amounts of differential test functioning. Nonetheless, they made up on average about a quarter of the observed group differences in terms of effect magnitude.

CONCLUSION

We explore possible causes and discuss explanations for the item-level differences. Overall, analyses of East- and West-German depressive symptom developments in the wake of reunification are feasible and statistically grounded.

A tutorial on using the paired t test for power calculations in repeated measures ANOVA with interactions

The a priori calculation of statistical power has become common practice in behavioral and social sciences to calculate the necessary sample size for detecting an expected effect size with a certain probability (i.e., power). In multi-factorial repeated measures ANOVA, these calculations can sometimes be cumbersome, especially for higher-order interactions. For designs that only involve factors with two levels each, the paired t test can be used for power calculations, but some pitfalls need to be avoided. In this tutorial, we provide practical advice on how to express main and interaction effects in repeated measures ANOVA as single difference variables. In particular, we demonstrate how to calculate the effect size Cohen's d of this difference variable either based on means, variances, and covariances of conditions or by transforming [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text] from the ANOVA framework into d. With the effect size correctly specified, we then show how to use the t test for sample size considerations by means of an empirical example. The relevant R code is provided in an online repository for all example calculations covered in this article.

The replication crisis has led to positive structural, procedural, and community changes

The emergence of large-scale replication projects yielding successful rates substantially lower than expected caused the behavioural, cognitive, and social sciences to experience a so-called 'replication crisis'. In this Perspective, we reframe this 'crisis' through the lens of a credibility revolution, focusing on positive structural, procedural and community-driven changes. Second, we outline a path to expand ongoing advances and improvements. The credibility revolution has been an impetus to several substantive changes which will have a positive, long-term impact on our research environment.

Perspectives on scientific error

Theoretical arguments and empirical investigations indicate that a high proportion of published findings do not replicate and are likely false. The current position paper provides a broad perspective on scientific error, which may lead to replication failures. This broad perspective focuses on reform history and on opportunities for future reform. We organize our perspective along four main themes: institutional reform, methodological reform, statistical reform and publishing reform. For each theme, we illustrate potential errors by narrating the story of a fictional researcher during the research cycle. We discuss future opportunities for reform. The resulting agenda provides a resource to usher in an era that is marked by a research culture that is less error-prone and a scientific publication landscape with fewer spurious findings.

Quantifying the Extent to Which Successful Juniors and Successful Seniors are Two Disparate Populations: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Findings

BACKGROUND

To what extent does the pathway to senior elite success build on junior elite success? Evidence from longitudinal studies investigating athletes' junior-to-senior performance development is mixed; prospective studies have reported percentages of juniors who achieved an equivalent competition level at senior age (e.g., international championships at both times) ranging from 0 to 68%. Likewise, retrospective studies have reported percentages of senior athletes who had achieved an equivalent competition level at junior age ranging from 2 to 100%. However, samples have been heterogeneous in terms of junior age categories, competition levels, sex, sports, and sample sizes.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish more robust and generalizable findings via a systematic review and synthesis of findings. We considered three competition levels-competing at a national championship level, competing at an international championship level, and winning international medals-and addressed three questions: (1) How many junior athletes reach an equivalent competition level when they are senior athletes? (2) How many senior athletes reached an equivalent competition level when they were junior athletes? The answers to these questions provide an answer to Question (3): To what extent are successful juniors and successful seniors one identical population or two disparate populations?

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search in SPORTDiscus, ERIC, ProQuest, PsychInfo, PubMed, Scopus, WorldCat, and Google Scholar until 15 March 2022. Percentages of juniors who achieved an equivalent competition level at senior age (prospective studies) and of senior athletes who had achieved an equivalent competition level at junior age (retrospective studies) were aggregated across studies to establish these percentages for all athletes, separately for prospective and retrospective studies, junior age categories, and competition levels. Quality of evidence was evaluated using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) version for descriptive quantitative studies.

RESULTS

Prospective studies included 110 samples with 38,383 junior athletes. Retrospective studies included 79 samples with 22,961 senior athletes. The following findings emerged: (1) Few elite juniors later achieved an equivalent competition level at senior age, and few elite seniors had previously achieved an equivalent competition level at junior age. For example, 89.2% of international-level U17/18 juniors failed to reach international level as seniors and 82.0% of international-level seniors had not reached international level as U17/18 juniors. (2) Successful juniors and successful seniors are largely two disparate populations. For example, international-level U17/18 juniors and international-level seniors were 7.2% identical and 92.8% disparate. (3) Percentages of athletes achieving equivalent junior and senior competition levels were the smallest among the highest competition levels and the youngest junior age categories. (4) The quality of evidence was generally high.

DISCUSSION

The findings question the tenets of traditional theories of giftedness and expertise as well as current practices of talent selection and talent promotion. A PRISMA-P protocol was registered at https://osf.io/gck4a/ .

Can we measure individual differences in cognitive measures reliably via smartphones? A comparison of the flanker effect across device types and samples

Research deployed via the internet and administered via smartphones could have access to more diverse samples than lab-based research. Diverse samples could have relatively high variation in their traits and so yield relatively reliable measurements of individual differences in these traits. Several cognitive tasks that originated from the experimental research tradition have been reported to yield relatively low reliabilities (Hedge et al., 2018) in samples with restricted variance (students). This issue could potentially be addressed by smartphone-mediated administration in diverse samples. We formulate several criteria to determine whether a cognitive task is suitable for individual differences research on commodity smartphones: no very brief or precise stimulus timing, relative response times (RTs), a maximum of two response options, and a small number of graphical stimuli. The flanker task meets these criteria. We compared the reliability of individual differences in the flanker effect across samples and devices in a preregistered study. We found no evidence that a more diverse sample yields higher reliabilities. We also found no evidence that commodity smartphones yield lower reliabilities than commodity laptops. Hence, diverse samples might not improve reliability above student samples, but smartphones may well measure individual differences with cognitive tasks reliably. Exploratively, we examined different reliability coefficients, split-half reliabilities, and the development of reliability estimates as a function of task length.

How to build up big team science: a practical guide for large-scale collaborations

The past decade has witnessed a proliferation of big team science (BTS), endeavours where a comparatively large number of researchers pool their intellectual and/or material resources in pursuit of a common goal. Despite this burgeoning interest, there exists little guidance on how to create, manage and participate in these collaborations. In this paper, we integrate insights from a multi-disciplinary set of BTS initiatives to provide a how-to guide for BTS. We first discuss initial considerations for launching a BTS project, such as building the team, identifying leadership, governance, tools and open science approaches. We then turn to issues related to running and completing a BTS project, such as study design, ethical approvals and issues related to data collection, management and analysis. Finally, we address topics that present special challenges for BTS, including authorship decisions, collaborative writing and team decision-making.

Using preregistration as a tool for transparent fNIRS study design

Significance

The expansion of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) methodology and analysis tools gives rise to various design and analytical decisions that researchers have to make. Several recent efforts have developed guidelines for preprocessing, analyzing, and reporting practices. For the planning stage of fNIRS studies, similar guidance is desirable. Study preregistration helps researchers to transparently document study protocols before conducting the study, including materials, methods, and analyses, and thus, others to verify, understand, and reproduce a study. Preregistration can thus serve as a useful tool for transparent, careful, and comprehensive fNIRS study design.

Aim

We aim to create a guide on the design and analysis steps involved in fNIRS studies and to provide a preregistration template specified for fNIRS studies.

Approach

The presented preregistration guide has a strong focus on fNIRS specific requirements, and the associated template provides examples based on continuous-wave (CW) fNIRS studies conducted in humans. These can, however, be extended to other types of fNIRS studies.

Results

On a step-by-step basis, we walk the fNIRS user through key methodological and analysis-related aspects central to a comprehensive fNIRS study design. These include items specific to the design of CW, task-based fNIRS studies, but also sections that are of general importance, including an in-depth elaboration on sample size planning.

Conclusions

Our guide introduces these open science tools to the fNIRS community, providing researchers with an overview of key design aspects and specification recommendations for comprehensive study planning. As such it can be used as a template to preregister fNIRS studies or merely as a tool for transparent fNIRS study design.

The epistemic and pragmatic function of dichotomous claims based on statistical hypothesis tests

Researchers commonly make dichotomous claims based on continuous test statistics. Many have branded the practice as a misuse of statistics and criticize scientists for the widespread application of hypothesis tests to tentatively reject a hypothesis (or not) depending on whether a p-value is below or above an alpha level. Although dichotomous claims are rarely explicitly defended, we argue they play an important epistemological and pragmatic role in science. The epistemological function of dichotomous claims consists in transforming data into quasibasic statements, which are tentatively accepted singular facts that can corroborate or falsify theoretical claims. This transformation requires a prespecified methodological decision procedure such as Neyman-Pearson hypothesis tests. From the perspective of methodological falsificationism these decision procedures are necessary, as probabilistic statements (e.g., continuous test statistics) cannot function as falsifiers of substantive hypotheses. The pragmatic function of dichotomous claims is to facilitate scrutiny and criticism among peers by generating contestable claims, a process referred to by Popper as “conjectures and refutations.” We speculate about how the surprisingly widespread use of a 5% alpha level might have facilitated this pragmatic function. Abandoning dichotomous claims, for example because researchers commonly misuse p-values, would sacrifice their crucial epistemic and pragmatic functions.

Predicting behavioral and brain markers of inhibitory control at preschool age from early measures of executive attention

Background

Inhibitory control (IC) is the ability to prevent prepotent responses when inappropriate. Longitudinal research on IC development has mainly focused on early childhood and adolescence, while research on IC development in the first years of life is still scarce. To address this gap in the literature, we explored the association between executive attention (EA) and elementary forms of IC in infancy and toddlerhood, with individual differences in IC later at 5 years of age.

Method

We conducted a five-wave longitudinal study in which children's EA and IC (n = 96) were tested at the age of 9 and 16 months and 2, 3, and 5 years. Children performed various age-appropriate EA and IC tasks in each wave, measuring inhibition of attention, endogenous control of attention, inhibition of the response, and conflict inhibition. At 5 years of age, IC was measured with a Go/No-go task while recording event-related potentials. After correlation analyses, structural equation model analyses were performed to predict IC at 5 years of age from EA and early IC measures.

Results

The results revealed that EA at 9 months predicted IC measures at 2 years of age. Likewise, measures of IC at 2 years predicted performance on the Go/No-go task at behavioral and neural levels. No direct association was found between EA at 9 months and IC at 5 years of age. We further observed that some EA and IC measures were not associated across time.

Conclusion

As we expected, EA skills in infancy and toddlerhood were related to better performance of children on IC tasks, toghether with a more mature inhibition-related brain functioning. Altogether, the results indicate that IC in early childhood could be predicted from EA and IC at 9 months and 2 years of age and suggest that the early emergence of IC relies on the development of particular EA and basic IC skills. However, some discontinuities in the longitudinal development of IC are observed in the first 5 years of life. These findings provide further support for the hierarchical model of IC development.

Illusory object recognition is either perceptual or cognitive in origin depending on decision confidence

We occasionally misinterpret ambiguous sensory input or report a stimulus when none is presented. It is unknown whether such errors have a sensory origin and reflect true perceptual illusions, or whether they have a more cognitive origin (e.g., are due to guessing), or both. When participants performed an error-prone and challenging face/house discrimination task, multivariate electroencephalography (EEG) analyses revealed that during decision errors (e.g., mistaking a face for a house), sensory stages of visual information processing initially represent the presented stimulus category. Crucially however, when participants were confident in their erroneous decision, so when the illusion was strongest, this neural representation flipped later in time and reflected the incorrectly reported percept. This flip in neural pattern was absent for decisions that were made with low confidence. This work demonstrates that decision confidence arbitrates between perceptual decision errors, which reflect true illusions of perception, and cognitive decision errors, which do not.

Investigating temporal and prosodic markers in clinical high-risk for psychosis participants using automated acoustic analysis

AIM

Language disturbances are a candidate biomarker for the early detection of psychosis. Temporal and prosodic abnormalities have been observed in schizophrenia patients, while there is conflicting evidence whether such deficits are present in participants meeting clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) criteria.

METHODS

Clinical interviews from CHR-P participants (n = 50) were examined for temporal and prosodic metrics and compared against a group of healthy controls (n = 17) and participants with affective disorders and substance abuse (n = 23).

RESULTS

There were no deficits in acoustic variables in the CHR-P group, while participants with affective disorders/substance abuse were characterized by slower speech rate, longer pauses and higher unvoiced frames percentage.

CONCLUSION

Our finding suggests that temporal and prosodic aspects of speech are not impaired in early-stage psychosis. Further studies are required to clarify whether such abnormalities are present in sub-groups of CHR-P participants with elevated psychosis-risk.

Individual consistency in the learning abilities of honey bees: cognitive specialization within sensory and reinforcement modalities

The question of whether individuals perform consistently across a variety of cognitive tasks is relevant for studies of comparative cognition. The honey bee (Apis mellifera) is an appropriate model to study cognitive consistency as its learning can be studied in multiple elemental and non-elemental learning tasks. We took advantage of this possibility and studied if the ability of honey bees to learn a simple discrimination correlates with their ability to solve two tasks of higher complexity, reversal learning and negative patterning. We performed four experiments in which we varied the sensory modality of the stimuli (visual or olfactory) and the type (Pavlovian or operant) and complexity (elemental or non-elemental) of conditioning to examine if stable correlated performances could be observed across experiments. Across all experiments, an individual's proficiency to learn the simple discrimination task was positively and significantly correlated with performance in both reversal learning and negative patterning, while the performances in reversal learning and negative patterning were positively, yet not significantly correlated. These results suggest that correlated performances across learning paradigms represent a distinct cognitive characteristic of bees. Further research is necessary to examine if individual cognitive consistency can be found in other insect species as a common characteristic of insect brains.

Sensitivity of Individual and Composite Test Scores from the Cogstate Brief Battery to Mild Cognitive Impairment and Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease

BACKGROUND

The Cogstate Brief Battery (CBB) is a computerized cognitive test battery used commonly to identify cognitive deficits related to Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, AD and normative samples used to understand the sensitivity of the CBB to AD in the clinic have been limited, as have the outcome measures studied.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the sensitivity of CBB outcomes, including potential composite scores, to cognitive impairment in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia due to AD, in carefully selected samples.

METHODS

Samples consisted of 4,871 cognitively unimpaired adults and 184 adults who met clinical criteria for MCI (Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) = 0.5) or dementia (CDR > 0.5) due to AD and CBB naive. Speed and accuracy measures from each test were examined, and theoretically- and statistically-derived composites were created. Sensitivity and specificity of classification of cognitive impairment were compared between outcomes.

RESULTS

Individual CBB measures of learning and working memory showed high discriminability for AD-related cognitive impairment for CDR 0.5 (AUCs ∼ 0.79-0.88), and CDR > 0.5 (AUCs ∼ 0.89-0.96) groups. Discrimination ability for theoretically derived CBB composite measures was high, particularly for the Learning and Working Memory (LWM) composite (CDR 0.5 AUC = 0.90, CDR > 0.5 AUC = 0.97). As expected, statistically optimized linear composite measures showed strong discrimination abilities albeit similar to the LWM composite.

CONCLUSIONS

In older adults, the CBB is effective for discriminating cognitive impairment due to MCI or AD-dementia from unimpaired cognition with the LWM composite providing the strongest sensitivity.

Reporting and interpreting non-significant results in animal cognition research

How statistically non-significant results are reported and interpreted following null hypothesis significance testing is often criticized. This issue is important for animal cognition research because studies in the field are often underpowered to detect theoretically meaningful effect sizes, i.e., often produce non-significant p-values even when the null hypothesis is incorrect. Thus, we manually extracted and classified how researchers report and interpret non-significant p-values and examined the p-value distribution of these non-significant results across published articles in animal cognition and related fields. We found a large amount of heterogeneity in how researchers report statistically non-significant p-values in the result sections of articles, and how they interpret them in the titles and abstracts. Reporting of the non-significant results as "No Effect" was common in the titles (84%), abstracts (64%), and results sections (41%) of papers, whereas reporting of the results as "Non-Significant" was less common in the titles (0%) and abstracts (26%), but was present in the results (52%). Discussions of effect sizes were rare (<5% of articles). A p-value distribution analysis was consistent with research being performed with low power of statistical tests to detect effect sizes of interest. These findings suggest that researchers in animal cognition should pay close attention to the evidence used to support claims of absence of effects in the literature, and-in their own work-report statistically non-significant results clearly and formally correct, as well as use more formal methods of assessing evidence against theoretical predictions.

Mediating effect of pubertal stages on the family environment and neurodevelopment: An open-data replication and multiverse analysis of an ABCD Study®

Increasing evidence demonstrates that environmental factors meaningfully impact the development of the brain (Hyde et al., 2020; McEwen and Akil, 2020). Recent work from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study® suggests that puberty may indirectly account for some association between the family environment and brain structure and function (Thijssen et al., 2020). However, a limited number of large studies have evaluated what, how, and why environmental factors impact neurodevelopment. When these topics are investigated, there is typically inconsistent operationalization of variables between studies which may be measuring different aspects of the environment and thus different associations in the analytic models. Multiverse analyses (Steegen et al., 2016) are an efficacious technique for investigating the effect of different operationalizations of the same construct on underlying interpretations. While one of the assets of Thijssen et al. (2020) was its large sample from the ABCD data, the authors used an early release that contained 38% of the full ABCD sample. Then, the analyses used several 'researcher degrees of freedom' (Gelman and Loken, 2014) to operationalize key independent, mediating and dependent variables, including but not limited to, the use of a latent factor of preadolescents' environment comprised of different subfactors, such as parental monitoring and child-reported family conflict. While latent factors can improve reliability of constructs, the nuances of each subfactor and measure that comprise the environment may be lost, making the latent factors difficult to interpret in the context of individual differences. This study extends the work of Thijssen et al. (2020) by evaluating the extent to which the analytic choices in their study affected their conclusions. In Aim 1, using the same variables and models, we replicate findings from the original study using the full sample in Release 3.0. Then, in Aim 2, using a multiverse analysis we extend findings by considering nine alternative operationalizations of family environment, three of puberty, and five of brain measures (total of 135 models) to evaluate the impact on conclusions from Aim 1. In these results, 90% of the directions of effects and 60% of the p-values (e.g. p > .05 and p < .05) across effects were comparable between the two studies. However, raters agreed that only 60% of the effects had replicated. Across the multiverse analyses, there was a degree of variability in beta estimates across the environmental variables, and lack of consensus between parent reported and child reported pubertal development for the indirect effects. This study demonstrates the challenge in defining which effects replicate, the nuance across environmental variables in the ABCD data, and the lack of consensus across parent and child reported puberty scales in youth.

The Relationship between Social Anhedonia and Perceived Pleasure from Food-An Exploratory Investigation on a Consumer Segment with Depression and Anxiety

Anhedonia, the diminished ability to experience pleasure, is a key symptom of a range of mental and neurobiological disorders and is associated with altered eating behavior. This research study investigated the concept of anhedonia in relation to mental disorders and the perception of pleasure from food to better understand the link between anhedonia and eating behavior. A consumer survey (n = 1051), including the Food Pleasure Scale, the Chapman Revised Social Anhedonia Scale, the Patient Health Questionnaire, and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale, was conducted to explore the perception of pleasure from food among people with anhedonic traits. Comparative analyses were performed between people with symptoms of depression and/or anxiety and people with no symptoms of these conditions. A segmentation analysis was furthermore performed based on three levels of anhedonia: Low, Intermediate and High anhedonia. Thus, insights into how food choice and eating habits may be affected by different levels of anhedonia are provided for the first time. Our findings showed that the 'Low anhedonia' segment found pleasure in all aspects of food pleasure, except for the aspect 'eating alone'. 'Eating alone' was, however, appreciated by the 'Intermediate anhedonia' and 'High anhedonia' segments. Both the 'Intermediate anhedonia' and 'High anhedonia' segments proved that their perceptions of food pleasure in general were affected by anhedonia, wherein the more complex aspects in particular, such as 'product information' and 'physical sensation', proved to be unrelated to food pleasure. For the 'High anhedonia' segment, the sensory modalities of food were also negatively associated with food pleasure, indicating that at this level of anhedonia the food itself is causing aversive sensations and expectations. Thus, valuable insights into the food pleasure profiles of people with different levels of anhedonia have been found for future research in the fields of mental illness, (food) anhedonia, and consumer behaviors.

Testing for implicit bias: Values, psychometrics, and science communication

Our understanding of implicit bias and how to measure it has yet to be settled. Various debates between cognitive scientists are unresolved. Moreover, the public's understanding of implicit bias tests continues to lag behind cognitive scientists'. These discrepancies pose potential problems. After all, a great deal of implicit bias research has been publicly funded. Further, implicit bias tests continue to feature in discourse about public- and private-sector policies surrounding discrimination, inequality, and even the purpose of science. We aim to do our part by reconstructing some of the recent arguments in ordinary language and then revealing some of the operative norms or values that are often hidden beneath the surface of these arguments. This may help the public learn more about the science of implicit bias. It may also help both laypeople and scientists reflect on the values, interests, and stakeholders involved in establishing, justifying, and communicating scientific research. This article is categorized under: Cognitive Biology > Social Development.

Fairly Criticized, or Politicized? Conflicts in the Neuroscience of Sex Differences in the Human Brain

Investigations of sex differences in the human brain take place on politically sensitive terrain. While some scholars express concern that gendered biases and stereotypes remain embedded in scientific research, others are alarmed about the politicization of science. To help better understand these debates, this review sets out three kinds of conflicts that can arise in the neuroscience of sex differences: academic freedom versus gender equality; frameworks, background assumptions, and dominant methodologies; and inductive risk and social values. The boundaries between fair criticism and politicization are explored for each kind of conflict, pointing to ways in which the academic community can facilitate fair criticism while protecting against politicization.

Trials with 'non-significant' results are not insignificant trials: a common significance threshold distorts reporting and interpretation of trial results

We discuss a newly published study examining how phrases are used in clinical trials to describe results when the estimated P-value is close to (slightly above or slightly below) 0.05, which has been arbitrarily designated by convention as the boundary for 'statistical significance'. Terms such as 'marginally significant', 'trending towards significant', and 'nominally significant' are well represented in biomedical literature, but are not actually scientifically meaningful. Acknowledging that 'statistical significance' remains a major determinant of publication, we propose that scientific journals de-emphasise the use of P-values for null hypothesis significance testing, a purpose for which they were never intended, and avoid the use of these ambiguous and confusing terms in scientific articles. Instead, investigators could simply report their findings: effect sizes, P-values, and confidence intervals (or their Bayesian equivalents), and leave it to the discerning reader to infer the clinical applicability and importance. Our goal should be to move away from describing studies (or trials) as positive or negative based on an arbitrary P-value threshold, and rather to judge whether the scientific evidence provided is informative or uninformative.

Effects of walking training on risk markers of cardiovascular disease in individuals with chronic spinal cord injury

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effects of an 8-week walking training program on glycemic control, lipid profile, and inflammatory markers in individuals with chronic spinal cord injury (SCI).

DESIGN

A pilot, single-group, pretest-posttest study.

SETTING

A neuromuscular research laboratory.

PARTICIPANTS

Eleven participants with chronic SCI.

INTERVENTION

An 8-week walking training program using a treadmill, a body weight-supported system, and an assistive gait training device.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), C-reactive protein (CRP), and interleukin-6 were assessed before and after the walking training.

RESULTS

Following the walking training, there was a statistically significant decrease in HbA_1c level (P<0.01) of uncertain clinical significance. The lipid profile improved after training, as shown by a statistically and clinically significant increase in HDL-C level (P<0.01) and a statistically significant decrease in LDL-C level (P<0.1) of no clinical significance. The ratio of LDL-C to HDL-C was significantly reduced (P<0.01). In regard to inflammatory markers, concentrations of IL-6 showed a significant reduction after training (P=0.05) of unknown clinical significance, while those of CRP trended to decrease (P=0.13).

CONCLUSION

The findings of this pilot study suggest that an 8-week walking training program may produce favorable changes in risk markers of cardiovascular disease in individuals with chronic SCI as shown by clinically meaningful improvements in HDL-C, and small changes in the right direction, but uncertain clinical significance, in HbA1c, LDL-C and IL-6. A randomized controlled trial is needed to compare the effects of walking training on these outcome measures with those of other exercise modalities suitable for this population, and to see if more prolonged exercise exposure leads to favorable parameters of significant size to justify the exercise modality.

Perception of major life events and personality trait change

Major life events can trigger personality trait change. However, a clear, replicable pattern of event-related personality trait change has yet to be identified. We examined whether the perception of major life events is associated with personality trait change. Therefore, we assessed young adults’ personality traits at five measurement occasions within 1 year. At the second measurement occasion, we also assessed their perception of a recently experienced major life event using the Event Characteristics Questionnaire. Contrary to our expectations, perceived impact of the event was not associated with the amount of personality trait change, but perceived valence was associated with changes in agreeableness and neuroticism. Exploratory analyses revealed some weak associations between other perceived event characteristics and the amount of personality trait change as well as interactions between perceived event characteristics and event categories in predicting changes in neuroticism. In general, effect sizes were small, and associations depended on the time interval between pre-event and post-event personality assessment. Results indicate that perceived event characteristics should be considered when examining event-related personality trait change.

Wrecked by Success? Not to Worry

We examined the wrecked-by-success hypothesis. Initially formalized by Sigmund Freud, this hypothesis has become pervasive throughout the humanities, popular press, and modern scientific literature. The hypothesis implies that truly outstanding occupational success often exacts a heavy toll on psychological, interpersonal, and physical well-being. Study 1 tested this hypothesis in three cohorts of 1,826 high-potential, intellectually gifted individuals. Participants with exceptionally successful careers were compared with those of their gender-equivalent intellectual peers with more typical careers on well-known measures of psychological well-being, flourishing, core self-evaluations, and medical maladies. Family relationships, comfort with aging, and life satisfaction were also assessed. Across all three cohorts, those deemed occupationally outstanding individuals were similar to or healthier than their intellectual peers across these metrics. Study 2 served as a constructive replication of Study 1 but used a different high-potential sample: 496 elite science/technology/engineering/mathematics (STEM) doctoral students identified in 1992 and longitudinally tracked for 25 years. Study 2 replicated the findings from Study 1 in all important respects. Both studies found that exceptionally successful careers were not associated with medical frailty, psychological maladjustment, and compromised interpersonal and family relationships; if anything, overall, people with exceptionally successful careers were medically and psychologically better off.

Why and how we should join the shift from significance testing to estimation

A paradigm shift away from null hypothesis significance testing seems in progress. Based on simulations, we illustrate some of the underlying motivations. First, p-values vary strongly from study to study, hence dichotomous inference using significance thresholds is usually unjustified. Second, 'statistically significant' results have overestimated effect sizes, a bias declining with increasing statistical power. Third, 'statistically non-significant' results have underestimated effect sizes, and this bias gets stronger with higher statistical power. Fourth, the tested statistical hypotheses usually lack biological justification and are often uninformative. Despite these problems, a screen of 48 papers from the 2020 volume of the Journal of Evolutionary Biology exemplifies that significance testing is still used almost universally in evolutionary biology. All screened studies tested default null hypotheses of zero effect with the default significance threshold of p = 0.05, none presented a pre-specified alternative hypothesis, pre-study power calculation and the probability of 'false negatives' (beta error rate). The results sections of the papers presented 49 significance tests on average (median 23, range 0-390). Of 41 studies that contained verbal descriptions of a 'statistically non-significant' result, 26 (63%) falsely claimed the absence of an effect. We conclude that studies in ecology and evolutionary biology are mostly exploratory and descriptive. We should thus shift from claiming to 'test' specific hypotheses statistically to describing and discussing many hypotheses (possible true effect sizes) that are most compatible with our data, given our statistical model. We already have the means for doing so, because we routinely present compatibility ('confidence') intervals covering these hypotheses.

Statistical significance and its critics: practicing damaging science, or damaging scientific practice?

While the common procedure of statistical significance testing and its accompanying concept of p-values have long been surrounded by controversy, renewed concern has been triggered by the replication crisis in science. Many blame statistical significance tests themselves, and some regard them as sufficiently damaging to scientific practice as to warrant being abandoned. We take a contrary position, arguing that the central criticisms arise from misunderstanding and misusing the statistical tools, and that in fact the purported remedies themselves risk damaging science. We argue that banning the use of p-value thresholds in interpreting data does not diminish but rather exacerbates data-dredging and biasing selection effects. If an account cannot specify outcomes that will not be allowed to count as evidence for a claim-if all thresholds are abandoned-then there is no test of that claim. The contributions of this paper are: To explain the rival statistical philosophies underlying the ongoing controversy; To elucidate and reinterpret statistical significance tests, and explain how this reinterpretation ameliorates common misuses and misinterpretations; To argue why recent recommendations to replace, abandon, or retire statistical significance undermine a central function of statistics in science: to test whether observed patterns in the data are genuine or due to background variability.

Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.