Representativeness and optimal use of body mass index (BMI) in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)

Psoriasis and dementia: A population-based matched cohort study of adults in England

OBJECTIVE

Evidence for an association between psoriasis and dementia is limited and conflicting. We aimed to investigate the association using large and representative population-based data and describe risk by dementia subtype and over time.

METHODS

We compared dementia risk between people with and without psoriasis using an age-, sex- and primary care practice-matched cohort of adults aged ≥40 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum in England (1997-2021) linked to hospital admissions data, analysed with stratified Cox regression.

RESULTS

Among 360,014 individuals with psoriasis and 1,799,617 without, psoriasis was associated with a small increased risk of all-cause dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.08; absolute rate difference 24 per 100,000 person-years). Strength of association increased with time since psoriasis diagnosis (e.g. aHR 0.99, 0.96-1.03 within 0 to 5 years; 1.20, 1.05-1.37 within 20 to 25 years). The association was stronger for vascular dementia (aHR 1.10, 1.06-1.14) than Alzheimer's dementia (aHR 1.03, 1.00-1.06). Hazard ratios were larger for severe psoriasis (all-cause aHR 1.32, 1.25-1.39; vascular aHR 1.58, 1.44-1.74; Alzheimer's aHR 1.11, 1.02-1.21).

INTERPRETATION

Long-term risk of all-cause dementia and vascular dementia, but not Alzheimer's dementia, was slightly higher in people with psoriasis, but absolute risk differences were small. Risks were more substantially raised with time since psoriasis diagnosis and in severe psoriasis compared to mild to moderate psoriasis, suggesting a potential dose-response relationship.

Recording practices of body mass index, overweight and obesity by Dutch general practitioners: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Routine body mass index (BMI) recording in electronic health records (EHR) could support general practitioners (GPs) in managing patients with obesity. This study aimed to evaluate recording practices of BMI, overweight, and obesity in adults including subgroup analysis of age, sex, and comorbidities in primary care in the Netherlands.

METHODS

An observational study of individuals aged ≥ 18 years and registered between 2007 and 2023, using routine healthcare data from the Extramural LUMC Academic Network (ELAN) in the Netherlands. Outcomes were (i) incidence rates of a recorded BMIs per 1000 person-years for sex and ten-year age categories (ii) proportions of recorded BMIs for different comorbidities and (iii) proportions of diagnosis of overweight (BMI between 25 and 30 kg/m2) and/or obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) for a corresponding recorded BMI.

RESULTS

Approximately 30% of 676,708 individuals had a recorded BMI. Highest incidence rate (186 per 1000 person-years) was at age 71 to 80 years. At least one BMI was recorded in 68.5% individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 70.6% with hypertension, 86.3% with type II diabetes, 42.4% with eating disorders, 36% with depression and 64.2% with osteoarthritis. Diagnoses of overweight and/or obesity were found in 11.5% individuals with a BMI between 25 and 30 kg/m2 and in 36.4% with a BMI of ≥ 30 kg/m2.

CONCLUSION

In the Netherlands, GPs recorded BMIs in nearly one third of all adults, mainly in adults with chronic diseases. Routinely recording BMI is not currently standard practice. With the increasing prevalence of obesity and its related comorbidities, it may be beneficial to start routinely recording BMI in primary care.

The epidemiology of psoriatic arthritis in the UK: a health intelligence analysis of UK Primary Care Electronic Health Records 1991-2020

OBJECTIVES

Epidemiological estimates of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) underpin the provision of healthcare, research, and the work of government, charities and patient organizations. Methodological problems impacting prior estimates include small sample sizes, incomplete case ascertainment, and representativeness. We developed a statistical modelling strategy to provide contemporary prevalence and incidence estimates of PsA from 1991 to 2020 in the UK.

METHODS

Data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were used to identify cases of PsA between 1st January 1991 and 31st December 2020. To optimize ascertainment, we identified cases of Definite PsA (≥1 Read code for PsA) and Probable PsA (satisfied a bespoke algorithm). Standardized annual rates were calculated using Bayesian multilevel regression with post-stratification to account for systematic differences between CPRD data and the UK population, based on age, sex, socioeconomic status and region of residence.

RESULTS

A total of 26 293 recorded PsA cases (all definitions) were identified within the study window (77.9% Definite PsA). Between 1991 and 2020 the standardized prevalence of PsA increased twelve-fold from 0.03-0.37. The standardized incidence of PsA per 100 000 person years increased from 8.97 in 1991-15.08 in 2020, an almost 2-fold increase. Over time, rates were similar between the sexes, and across socioeconomic status. Rates were strongly associated with age, and consistently highest in Northern Ireland.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence and incidence of PsA recorded in primary care has increased over the last three decades. The modelling strategy presented can be used to provide contemporary prevalence estimates for musculoskeletal disease using routinely collected primary care data.

Weight trends among adults with diabetes or hypertension during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study using OpenSAFELY

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 pandemic restrictions may have influenced behaviours related to weight.

AIM

To describe patterns of weight change among adults living in England with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and/or hypertension during the pandemic.

DESIGN AND SETTING

An observational cohort study using the routinely collected health data of approximately 40% of adults living in England, accessed through the OpenSAFELY service inside TPP.

METHOD

Clinical and sociodemographic characteristics associated with rapid weight gain (>0.5 kg/m2/year) were investigated using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Data were extracted on adults with T2D (n = 1 231 455, 43.9% female, and 76.0% White British) or hypertension (n = 3 558 405, 49.7% female, and 84.3% White British). Adults with T2D lost weight overall (median δ = -0.1 kg/m2/year [interquartile range {IQR} -0.7-0.4]). However, rapid weight gain was common (20.7%) and associated with the following: sex (male versus female: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.78 [95% confidence interval {CI} = 0.77 to 0.79]); age (older age reduced odds, for example, aged 60-69 years versus 18-29 years: aOR 0.66 [95% CI = 0.61 to 0.71]); deprivation (least deprived Index of Multiple Deprivation [IMD] quintile versus most deprived IMD quintile: aOR 0.87 [95% CI = 0.85 to 0.89]); White ethnicity (Black versus White: aOR 0.95 [95% CI = 0.92 to 0.98]); mental health conditions (for example, depression: aOR 1.13 [95% CI = 1.12 to 1.15]); and diabetes treatment (non-insulin treatment versus no pharmacological treatment: aOR 0.68 [95% CI = 0.67 to 0.69]). Adults with hypertension maintained stable weight overall (median δ = 0.0 kg/m2/year [IQR -0.6-0.5]); however, rapid weight gain was common (24.7%) and associated with similar characteristics as in T2D.

CONCLUSION

Among adults living in England with T2D and/or hypertension, rapid pandemic weight gain was more common among females, younger adults, those living in more deprived areas, and those with mental health conditions.

Variations in healthcare costs by body mass index and obesity-related complications in a UK population: A retrospective open cohort study

AIMS

To estimate healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and healthcare costs by body mass index (BMI) in a UK cohort and to explore how this varied by defined BMI strata.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective open cohort study used Discover, a linked primary and secondary electronic health records database covering 2.7 million individuals. Adults were stratified by BMI as: overweight (25-<30 kg/m2); obesity class I (30-<35 kg/m2); obesity class II (35-<40 kg/m2); or obesity class III (≥40 kg/m2). Cost data, comprising primary care, secondary care (inpatient admissions, outpatient appointments and emergency room visits) and prescriptions, were reported for 2015-2019.

RESULTS

Overall, 1 008 101 individuals were overweight, 278 782 had obesity class I; 80 621 had obesity class II, and 42 642 had obesity class III. Healthcare costs and HCRU events per person per year increased over time (2015: £851-£1321 and 10.6-13.4 events; 2019: £1143-£1871 and 11.4-14.9 events), and were higher for each successive BMI group. Groups with chronic kidney disease or cardiovascular disease incurred particularly high costs. In 270 493 individuals with obesity in 2019, more than 72% of total healthcare costs were incurred by the highest cost quintile, which had a higher mean age and more obesity-related complications (ORCs) than lower cost quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS

The economic impact of obesity could be alleviated by weight management support based on unmet need, to limit the effects of BMI progression and ORC development.

Trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality by BMI levels in England, 2004-2019: a population-based primary care records study

Background

In the UK, obesity rates are rising concurrently with declining mortality rates. Yet, there is limited research on the shifts of mortality trends and the impact of obesity-related mortality. In this study, we examine mortality trends and the cause-specific proportional composition of deaths by body mass index.

Methods

We used primary healthcare records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 2004 and 2019, linked to national death registration data. There were 880,683 individuals with at least one BMI measurement and a 5-year survival period. We used discrete Poisson regression and joinpoint analysis to estimate the all-cause and cause-specific mortality rate and significance of the trends.

Findings

Between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019, all-cause mortality rates declined in the obese category by 3% on average per year (from 23.3 to 14.6 deaths per 1000 person years) in males and 2% on average per year (from 12.5 to 9.4 deaths per 1000 person years) in females. Cardiovascular disease mortality declined 7% on average per year (from 12.4 to 4.4 deaths per 1000 person years) in males and 4% on average per year (from 5.5 to 3.0 deaths per 1000 person years) in females in the obese category. Increases in mortality rates from neurological conditions occurred in all BMI categories in males and females. By the end of the study, cancers became the primary contributor of death in males in all BMI categories and females in the overweight category.

Interpretation

There have been significant declines in all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in males and females, leading to a diversification of mortality, with cancers contributing to the highest proportion of deaths and increases in causes such as neurological and respiratory conditions. Further screening, prevention, and treatment implementation for a broader set of diseases is necessary for continued mortality improvements.

Funding

Imperial College London, Science Foundation Ireland.

Systemic Fluoroquinolone Use and Risk of Uveitis or Retinal Detachment

Importance

Fluoroquinolone use has been associated with increased risk of uveitis and retinal detachment in noninterventional studies, but the findings have been conflicting and causality is unclear.

Objective

To estimate the association of systemic fluoroquinolone use with acute uveitis or retinal detachment, using multiple analyses and multiple databases to increase the robustness of results.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and GOLD UK primary care records databases, which were linked to hospital admissions data. Adults prescribed a fluoroquinolone or a comparator antibiotic, cephalosporin, between April 1997 and December 2019 were included. Adults with uveitis or retinal detachment were analyzed in a separate self-controlled case series. Data analysis was performed from May 2022 to May 2023.

Exposures

Systemic fluoroquinolone or comparator antibiotic.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was a diagnosis of acute uveitis or retinal detachment. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated in the cohort study for the association of fluoroquinolone prescription with either uveitis or retinal detachment, using stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox regression. Rate ratios (RRs) were estimated in the self-controlled case series, using conditional Poisson regression. Estimates were pooled across databases using fixed-effects meta-analysis.

Results

In total, 3 001 256 individuals in Aurum (1 893 561 women [63.1%]; median [IQR] age, 51 [35-68] years) and 434 754 in GOLD (276 259 women [63.5%]; median [IQR] age, 53 [37-70] years) were included in the cohort study. For uveitis, the pooled adjusted HRs (aHRs) for use of fluoroquinolone vs cephalosporin were 0.91 (95% CI, 0.72-1.14) at first treatment episode and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.92-1.25) over all treatment episodes. For retinal detachment, the pooled aHRs were 1.37 (95% CI, 0.80-2.36) at first treatment episode and 1.18 (95% CI, 0.84-1.65) over all treatment episodes. In the self-controlled case series, for uveitis, the pooled adjusted RRs (aRRs) for fluoroquinolone use vs nonuse were 1.13 (95% CI, 0.97-1.31) for 1 to 29 days of exposure, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.00-1.34) for 30 to 59 days, and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.74-1.31) for 60 days for longer. For retinal detachment, pooled aRRs for fluoroquinolone use vs nonuse were 1.15 (95% CI, 0.86-1.54) for 1 to 29 days of exposure, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.69-1.30) for 30 to 59 days, and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.59-1.78) for 60 days or longer.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings do not support an association of systemic fluoroquinolone use with substantively increased risk of uveitis or retinal detachment. Although an association cannot be completely ruled out, these findings indicate that any absolute increase in risk would be small and, hence, of limited clinical importance.

Trends in weight gain recorded in English primary care before and during the Coronavirus-19 pandemic: An observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform

BACKGROUND

Obesity and rapid weight gain are established risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and have emerged as independent risk factors for severe disease following Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Restrictions imposed to reduce COVID-19 transmission resulted in profound societal changes that impacted many health behaviours, including physical activity and nutrition, associated with rate of weight gain. We investigated which clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were associated with rapid weight gain and the greatest acceleration in rate of weight gain during the pandemic among adults registered with an English National Health Service (NHS) general practitioner (GP) during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

With the approval of NHS England, we used the OpenSAFELY platform inside TPP to conduct an observational cohort study of routinely collected electronic healthcare records. We investigated changes in body mass index (BMI) values recorded in English primary care between March 2015 and March 2022. We extracted data on 17,742,365 adults aged 18 to 90 years old (50.1% female, 76.1% white British) registered with an English primary care practice. We estimated individual rates of weight gain before (δ-prepandemic) and during (δ-pandemic) the pandemic and identified individuals with rapid weight gain (>0.5 kg/m2/year) in each period. We also estimated the change in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic period (δ-change = δ-pandemic-δ-prepandemic) and defined extreme accelerators as the 10% of individuals with the greatest increase in their rate of weight gain (δ-change ≥1.84 kg/m2/year) between these periods. We estimated associations with these outcomes using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), and ethnicity. P-values were generated in regression models. The median BMI of our study population was 27.8 kg/m2, interquartile range (IQR) [24.3, 32.1] in 2019 (March 2019 to February 2020) and 28.0 kg/m2, IQR [24.4, 32.6] in 2021. Rapid pandemic weight gain was associated with sex, age, and IMD. Male sex (male versus female: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) [0.76, 0.76], p < 0.001), older age (e.g., 50 to 59 years versus 18 to 29 years: aOR 0.60, 95% CI [0.60, 0.61], p < 0.001]); and living in less deprived areas (least-deprived-IMD-quintile versus most-deprived: aOR 0.77, 95% CI [0.77, 0.78] p < 0.001) reduced the odds of rapid weight gain. Compared to white British individuals, all other ethnicities had lower odds of rapid pandemic weight gain (e.g., Indian versus white British: aOR 0.69, 95% CI [0.68, 0.70], p < 0.001). Long-term conditions (LTCs) increased the odds, with mental health conditions having the greatest effect (e.g., depression (aOR 1.18, 95% CI [1.17, 1.18], p < 0.001)). Similar characteristics increased odds of extreme acceleration in the rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. However, changes in healthcare activity during the pandemic may have introduced new bias to the data.

CONCLUSIONS

We found female sex, younger age, deprivation, white British ethnicity, and mental health conditions were associated with rapid pandemic weight gain and extreme acceleration in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate sociodemographic, physical, and mental health characteristics when formulating research, policies, and interventions targeting BMI in the period of post pandemic service restoration and in future pandemic planning.

The impact of major depressive disorder on glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes: a longitudinal cohort study using UK Biobank primary care records

BACKGROUND

This study evaluates longitudinal associations between glycaemic control, measured by mean and within-patient variability of glycated haemaglobin (HbA1c) levels, and major depressive disorder (MDD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D), focusing on the timings of these diagnoses.

METHODS

In UK Biobank, T2D was defined using self-report and linked health outcome data, then validated using polygenic scores. Repeated HbA1c measurements (mmol/mol) over the 10 years following T2D diagnosis were outcomes in mixed effects models, with disease duration included using restricted cubic splines. Four MDD exposures were considered: MDD diagnosis prior to T2D diagnosis (pre-T2D MDD), time between pre-T2D MDD diagnosis and T2D, new MDD diagnosis during follow-up (post-T2D MDD) and time since post-T2D MDD diagnosis. Models with and without covariate adjustment were considered.

RESULTS

T2D diagnostic criteria were robustly associated with T2D polygenic scores. In 11,837 T2D cases (6.9 years median follow-up), pre-T2D MDD was associated with a 0.92 increase in HbA1c (95% CI: [0.00, 1.84]), but earlier pre-T2D MDD diagnosis correlated with lower HbA1c. These pre-T2D MDD effects became non-significant after covariate adjustment. Post-T2D MDD individuals demonstrated increasing HbA1c with years since MDD diagnosis ( β = 0.51 , 95% CI: [0.17, 0.86]). Retrospectively, across study follow-up, within-patient variability in HbA1c was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.13-1.19) times higher in post-T2D MDD individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The timing of MDD diagnosis is important for understanding glycaemic control in T2D. Poorer control was observed in MDD diagnosed post-T2D, highlighting the importance of depression screening in T2D, and closer monitoring for individuals who develop MDD after T2D.

Comparative effectiveness of second line oral antidiabetic treatments among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: emulation of a target trial using routinely collected health data

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of three commonly prescribed oral antidiabetic drugs added to metformin for people with type 2 diabetes mellitus requiring second line treatment in routine clinical practice.

DESIGN

Cohort study emulating a comparative effectiveness trial (target trial).

SETTING

Linked primary care, hospital, and death data in England, 2015-21.

PARTICIPANTS

75 739 adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus who initiated second line oral antidiabetic treatment with a sulfonylurea, DPP-4 inhibitor, or SGLT-2 inhibitor added to metformin.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome was absolute change in glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) between baseline and one year follow-up. Secondary outcomes were change in body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at one year and two years, change in HbA1c at two years, and time to ≥40% decline in eGFR, major adverse kidney event, hospital admission for heart failure, major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), and all cause mortality. Instrumental variable analysis was used to reduce the risk of confounding due to unobserved baseline measures.

RESULTS

75 739 people initiated second line oral antidiabetic treatment with sulfonylureas (n=25 693, 33.9%), DPP-4 inhibitors (n=34 464 ,45.5%), or SGLT-2 inhibitors (n=15 582, 20.6%). SGLT-2 inhibitors were more effective than DPP-4 inhibitors or sulfonylureas in reducing mean HbA1c values between baseline and one year. After the instrumental variable analysis, the mean differences in HbA1c change between baseline and one year were -2.5 mmol/mol (95% confidence interval (CI) -3.7 to -1.3) for SGLT-2 inhibitors versus sulfonylureas and -3.2 mmol/mol (-4.6 to -1.8) for SGLT-2 inhibitors versus DPP-4 inhibitors. SGLT-2 inhibitors were more effective than sulfonylureas or DPP-4 inhibitors in reducing BMI and systolic blood pressure. For some secondary endpoints, evidence for SGLT-2 inhibitors being more effective was lacking-the hazard ratio for MACE, for example, was 0.99 (95% CI 0.61 to 1.62) versus sulfonylureas and 0.91 (0.51 to 1.63) versus DPP-4 inhibitors. SGLT-2 inhibitors had reduced hazards of hospital admission for heart failure compared with DPP-4 inhibitors (0.32, 0.12 to 0.90) and sulfonylureas (0.46, 0.20 to 1.05). The hazard ratio for a ≥40% decline in eGFR indicated a protective effect versus sulfonylureas (0.42, 0.22 to 0.82), with high uncertainty in the estimated hazard ratio versus DPP-4 inhibitors (0.64, 0.29 to 1.43).

CONCLUSIONS

This emulation study of a target trial found that SGLT-2 inhibitors were more effective than sulfonylureas or DPP-4 inhibitors in lowering mean HbA1c, BMI, and systolic blood pressure and in reducing the hazards of hospital admission for heart failure (v DPP-4 inhibitors) and kidney disease progression (v sulfonylureas), with no evidence of differences in other clinical endpoints.

A Harmonised Approach to Curating Research-Ready Datasets for Asthma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) in England, Wales and Scotland Using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank and DataLoch

Background

Electronic healthcare records (EHRs) are an important resource for health research that can be used to improve patient outcomes in chronic respiratory diseases. However, consistent approaches in the analysis of these datasets are needed for coherent messaging, and when undertaking comparative studies across different populations.

Methods and Results

We developed a harmonised curation approach to generate comparable patient cohorts for asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) using datasets from within Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD; for England), Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL; for Wales) and DataLoch (for Scotland) by defining commonly derived variables consistently between the datasets. By working in parallel on the curation methodology used for CPRD, SAIL and DataLoch for asthma, COPD and ILD, we were able to highlight key differences in coding and recording between the databases and identify solutions to enable valid comparisons.

Conclusion

Codelists and metadata generated have been made available to help re-create the asthma, COPD and ILD cohorts in CPRD, SAIL and DataLoch for different time periods, and provide a starting point for the curation of respiratory datasets in other EHR databases, expediting further comparable respiratory research.

Polypharmacy in atrial fibrillation: A prospective analysis of mortality and ischemic stroke using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Background

Observational studies of polypharmacy and the risk of death or stroke in individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) have produced inconsistent findings. By using propensity score matching (PSM) and Cox regression, this study aimed to determine whether polypharmacy (five to nine medicines) in the 3 months following AF diagnosis, is associated with an increased risk of death or ischemic stroke, compared to non-polypharmacy (one to four medicines).

Methods

A prospective cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2006-2019). Data from 23 629 individuals with AF were analyzed. Cox regression models were adjusted for age, gender, morbidities, obesity, alcohol, smoking, and wealth. In the PSM models, cases and controls with near identical health profiles were selected from the study pool. The risk of death and stroke were presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

68.9% (n = 16 271) of the participants had polypharmacy. PSM showed that polypharmacy was associated with an increased risk of death during follow-up (HR 1.32; 95% CI: 1.19-1.47, p < .01), but not ischemic stroke (HR 0.84; 95% CI: 0.69-1.02, p = .08).

Conclusion

Polypharmacy was associated with an increased risk of death during follow-up, but not ischemic stroke, in individuals with AF. The effects of comorbidity and other confounding factors were reduced by using PSM. This study focused on the overall medication burden; however, further research is needed to identify which specific medications in polypharmacy regimens increase the risk of mortality in AF. These findings could inform prescribing practices in the future.

Thiazide Diuretics and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Evidence from clinical trials and observational studies on the association between thiazide diuretics and colorectal cancer risk is conflicting. We aimed to determine whether thiazide diuretics are associated with an increased colorectal cancer risk compared with dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (dCCBs). A population-based, new-user cohort was assembled using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Between 1990-2018, we compared thiazide diuretic initiators with dCCB initiators and estimated hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of colorectal cancer using Cox proportional hazard models. Models were weighted using standardized morbidity ratio weights generated from calendar time-specific propensity scores. The cohort included 377,760 thiazide diuretic initiators and 364,300 dCCB initiators, generating 3,619,883 person-years of follow-up. Compared with dCCBs, thiazide diuretics were not associated with colorectal cancer (weighted HR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.90, 1.04). Secondary analyses yielded similar results, although an increased risk was observed among patients with inflammatory bowel disease (weighted HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.13, 5.35) and potentially polyps (weighted HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 0.93, 2.30). Compared with dCCBs, thiazide diuretics were not associated with an overall increased colorectal cancer risk. While these findings provide some reassurance, research is needed to corroborate the elevated risks observed among patients with inflammatory bowel disease and history of polyps.

Systematic literature review of traits and outcomes reported in randomised controlled trials of asthma with regular dosing of inhaled corticosteroids with short-acting β2-agonist reliever, as-needed ICS/formoterol, or ICS/formoterol maintenance and reliever therapy

INTRODUCTION

Asthma treatments based solely on diagnostic label do not benefit patients equally. To identify patient traits that may be associated with improved treatment response to regular inhaled corticosteroid (ICSs) dosing with short-acting β2-agonist reliever or ICS/formoterol-containing therapy, a systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted.

METHODS

Searches of databases including MEDLINE and Embase identified randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of patients with asthma, aged ≥12 years, published 1998-2022, containing ≥1 regular ICS dosing or ICS/formoterol-containing treatment arm, and reporting patient traits and outcomes of interest. Relevant data was extracted and underwent a feasibility assessment to determine suitability for meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The SLR identified 39 RCTs of 72,740 patients and 90 treatment arms, reporting 11 traits and 11 outcomes. Five patient traits (age, body mass index, FEV1, smoking history, asthma control) and five outcomes (exacerbation rate, lung function, asthma control, adherence, time to first exacerbation) were deemed feasible for inclusion in meta-analyses due to sufficient comparable reporting. Subgroups of clinical outcomes stratified by levels of patient traits were reported in 16 RCTs.

CONCLUSION

A systematic review of studies of regular ICS dosing with SABA or ICS/formoterol-containing treatment strategies in asthma identified consistent reporting of five traits and outcomes, allowing exploration of associations with treatment response. Conversely, many other traits and outcomes, although being potentially relevant, were inconsistently reported and limited subgroup reporting meant analyses of treatment response for subgroups of traits was not possible. We recommend more consistent measurement and reporting of clinically relevant patient traits and outcomes in respiratory RCTs.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on the body mass index of people living with obesity: A UK retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

BACKGROUND

Restrictions implemented by governments during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected people's eating habits and physical activity. We investigated the effect of COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions on body mass index (BMI) and weight in a UK population, according to BMI class, sex, age and ethnicity.

METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink AURUM database. Baseline spanned from 22 March 2017-22 March 2020, and the follow-up lockdown period was from 23 March 2020 (start of the lockdown in the UK) to 13 March 2021. The descriptive analysis included individuals with ≥ 1 valid BMI/weight measurements during both the baseline and follow-up periods, while the model-based analysis comprised individuals with ≥ 1 valid measurement(s) during baseline. Results were stratified by baseline BMI category, sex, age and ethnicity.

RESULTS

In the descriptive analysis (n = 273,529), most individuals did not change BMI category post-lockdown (66.4-83.3%). A greater proportion of women (12.6%) than men (9.5%) moved up BMI categories post-lockdown. Compared with older groups, a higher proportion of individuals < 45 years old increased post-lockdown BMI category. The model-based analysis (n = 938,150) revealed consistent trends, where changes in body weight and BMI trajectories pre- and post-lockdown were observed for women and for individuals < 45 years.

CONCLUSION

During COVID-19 restrictions, women and young individuals were more likely than other groups to increase BMI category and weight post-lockdown.

Access to publicly funded weight management services in England using routine data from primary and secondary care (2007-2020): An observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Adults living with overweight/obesity are eligible for publicly funded weight management (WM) programmes according to national guidance. People with the most severe and complex obesity are eligible for bariatric surgery. Primary care plays a key role in identifying overweight/obesity and referring to WM interventions. This study aimed to (1) describe the primary care population in England who (a) are referred for WM interventions and (b) undergo bariatric surgery and (2) determine the patient and GP practice characteristics associated with both.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

An observational cohort study was undertaken using routinely collected primary care data in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. During the study period (January 2007 to June 2020), 1,811,587 adults met the inclusion criteria of a recording of overweight/obesity in primary care, of which 54.62% were female and 20.10% aged 45 to 54. Only 56,783 (3.13%) were referred to WM, and 3,701 (1.09% of those with severe and complex obesity) underwent bariatric surgery. Multivariable Poisson regression examined the associations of demographic, clinical, and regional characteristics on the likelihood of WM referral and bariatric surgery. Higher body mass index (BMI) and practice region had the strongest associations with both outcomes. People with BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were more than 6 times as likely to be referred for WM (10.05% of individuals) than BMI 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2 (1.34%) (rate ratio (RR) 6.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) [5.99,6.40], p < 0.001). They were more than 5 times as likely to undergo bariatric surgery (3.98%) than BMI 35.0 to 40.0 kg/m2 with a comorbidity (0.53%) (RR 5.52, 95% CI [5.07,6.02], p < 0.001). Patients from practices in the West Midlands were the most likely to have a WM referral (5.40%) (RR 2.17, 95% CI [2.10,2.24], p < 0.001, compared with the North West, 2.89%), and practices from the East of England least likely (1.04%) (RR 0.43, 95% CI [0.41,0.46], p < 0.001, compared with North West). Patients from practices in London were the most likely to undergo bariatric surgery (2.15%), and practices in the North West the least likely (0.68%) (RR 3.29, 95% CI [2.88,3.76], p < 0.001, London compared with North West). Longer duration since diagnosis with severe and complex obesity (e.g., 1.67% of individuals diagnosed in 2007 versus 0.34% in 2015, RR 0.20, 95% CI [0.12,0.32], p < 0.001), and increasing comorbidities (e.g., 2.26% of individuals with 6+ comorbidities versus 1.39% with none (RR 8.79, 95% CI [7.16,10.79], p < 0.001) were also strongly associated with bariatric surgery. The main limitation is the reliance on overweight/obesity being recorded within primary care records to identify the study population.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2007 and 2020, a very small percentage of the primary care population eligible for WM referral or bariatric surgery according to national guidance received either. Higher BMI and GP practice region had the strongest associations with both. Regional inequalities may reflect differences in commissioning and provision of WM services across the country. Multi-stakeholder qualitative research is ongoing to understand the barriers to accessing WM services and potential solutions. Together with population-wide prevention strategies, improved access to WM interventions is needed to reduce obesity levels.

Bleeding risk in patients prescribed dual antiplatelet therapy and triple therapy after coronary interventions: the ADAPTT retrospective population-based cohort studies

Background

Bleeding among populations undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting and among conservatively managed patients with acute coronary syndrome exposed to different dual antiplatelet therapy and triple therapy (i.e. dual antiplatelet therapy plus an anticoagulant) has not been previously quantified.

Objectives

The objectives were to estimate hazard ratios for bleeding for different antiplatelet and triple therapy regimens, estimate resources and the associated costs of treating bleeding events, and to extend existing economic models of the cost-effectiveness of dual antiplatelet therapy.

Design

The study was designed as three retrospective population-based cohort studies emulating target randomised controlled trials.

Setting

The study was set in primary and secondary care in England from 2010 to 2017.

Participants

Participants were patients aged ≥ 18 years undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting or emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (for acute coronary syndrome), or conservatively managed patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Data sources

Data were sourced from linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics.

Interventions

Coronary artery bypass grafting and conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome: aspirin (reference) compared with aspirin and clopidogrel. Percutaneous coronary intervention: aspirin and clopidogrel (reference) compared with aspirin and prasugrel (ST elevation myocardial infarction only) or aspirin and ticagrelor.

Main outcome measures

Primary outcome: any bleeding events up to 12 months after the index event. Secondary outcomes: major or minor bleeding, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, mortality from bleeding, myocardial infarction, stroke, additional coronary intervention and major adverse cardiovascular events.

Results

The incidence of any bleeding was 5% among coronary artery bypass graft patients, 10% among conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients and 9% among emergency percutaneous coronary intervention patients, compared with 18% among patients prescribed triple therapy. Among coronary artery bypass grafting and conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients, dual antiplatelet therapy, compared with aspirin, increased the hazards of any bleeding (coronary artery bypass grafting: hazard ratio 1.43, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 1.69; conservatively-managed acute coronary syndrome: hazard ratio 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 2.57) and major adverse cardiovascular events (coronary artery bypass grafting: hazard ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 3.46; conservatively-managed acute coronary syndrome: hazard ratio 1.57, 95% confidence interval 1.38 to 1.78). Among emergency percutaneous coronary intervention patients, dual antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor, compared with dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel, increased the hazard of any bleeding (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 1.82), but did not reduce the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.27). Among ST elevation myocardial infarction percutaneous coronary intervention patients, dual antiplatelet therapy with prasugrel, compared with dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel, increased the hazard of any bleeding (hazard ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 2.12), but did not reduce the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 0.80 to 1.51). Health-care costs in the first year did not differ between dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel and aspirin monotherapy among either coronary artery bypass grafting patients (mean difference £94, 95% confidence interval -£155 to £763) or conservatively managed acute coronary syndrome patients (mean difference £610, 95% confidence interval -£626 to £1516), but among emergency percutaneous coronary intervention patients were higher for those receiving dual antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor than for those receiving dual antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel, although for only patients on concurrent proton pump inhibitors (mean difference £1145, 95% confidence interval £269 to £2195).

Conclusions

This study suggests that more potent dual antiplatelet therapy may increase the risk of bleeding without reducing the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events. These results should be carefully considered by clinicians and decision-makers alongside randomised controlled trial evidence when making recommendations about dual antiplatelet therapy.

Limitations

The estimates for bleeding and major adverse cardiovascular events may be biased from unmeasured confounding and the exclusion of an eligible subgroup of patients who could not be assigned an intervention. Because of these limitations, a formal cost-effectiveness analysis could not be conducted.

Future work

Future work should explore the feasibility of using other UK data sets of routinely collected data, less susceptible to bias, to estimate the benefit and harm of antiplatelet interventions.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN76607611.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Acceptability and feasibility of a planned preconception weight loss intervention in women with long-acting reversible contraception: the Plan-it mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Women with overweight (a body mass index of ≥ 25 kg/m2) or obesity (a body mass index of ≥ 30 kg/m2) are at greater risk of experiencing complications during pregnancy and labour than women with a healthy weight. Women who remove their long-acting reversible contraception (i.e. coils or implants) are one of the few groups of people who contact services as part of their preparation for conception, creating an opportunity to offer a weight loss intervention.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to understand if routine NHS data captured the pathway from long-acting reversible contraception removal to pregnancy and included body mass index; to identify the suitable components of a preconception weight loss intervention; and to engage with key stakeholders to determine the acceptability and feasibility of asking women with overweight/obesity to delay the removal of their long-acting reversible contraception in order to take part in a preconception weight loss intervention.

DESIGN

This was a preparatory mixed-methods study, assessing the acceptability and feasibility of a potential intervention, using routine NHS data and purposefully collected qualitative data.

PARTICIPANTS

The NHS routine data included all women with a long-acting reversible contraception code. There were three groups of participants in the surveys and interviews: health-care practitioners who remove long-acting reversible contraception; weight management consultants; and women of reproductive age with experience of overweight/obesity and of using long-acting reversible contraception.

SETTING

UK-based health-care practitioners recruited at professional meetings; and weight management consultants and contraceptive users recruited via social media.

DATA SOURCES

Anonymised routine data from UK sexual health clinics and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, including the Pregnancy Register; and online surveys and qualitative interviews with stakeholders.

RESULTS

The records of 2,632,871 women aged 16-48 years showed that 318,040 had at least one long-acting reversible contraception event, with 62% of records including a body mass index. Given the identified limitations of the routine NHS data sets, it would not be feasible to reliably identify women with overweight/obesity who request a long-acting reversible contraception removal with an intention to become pregnant. Online surveys were completed by 100 health-care practitioners, four weight management consultants and 243 contraceptive users. Ten health-care practitioners and 20 long-acting reversible contraception users completed qualitative interviews. A realist-informed approach generated a hypothesised programme theory. The combination of weight discussions and the delay of long-acting reversible contraception removal was unacceptable as an intervention to contraceptive users for ethical and practical reasons. However, a preconception health intervention incorporating weight loss could be acceptable, and one potential programme is outlined.

LIMITATIONS

There was very limited engagement with weight management consultants, and the sample of participating stakeholders may not be representative.

CONCLUSIONS

An intervention that asks women to delay long-acting reversible contraception removal to participate in a preconception weight loss intervention would be neither feasible nor acceptable. A preconception health programme, including weight management, would be welcomed but requires risk communication training of health-care practitioners.

FUTURE WORK

Work to improve routine data sets, increase awareness of the importance of preconception health and overcome health-care practitioner barriers to discussing weight as part of preconception care is a priority.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered as ISRCTN14733020.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 1.

Risks and benefits of oral anticoagulants for stroke prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation according to body mass index: Nationwide cohort study of primary care records in England

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are effective and safe alternatives to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis for atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether this extends to patients at the extremes of body mass index (BMI) is unclear.

METHODS

Using linked primary and secondary data, Jan 1, 2010 to Nov 30, 2018, we included CHA₂DS₂-VAS_C score ≥3 in women and ≥2 in men with AF treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs). Outcomes were ischaemic stroke, major bleeding and all-cause mortality by World Health Organisation BMI classification. Patients who received warfarin were propensity score matched (1:1 ratio) with those who received DOACs and the association of time-varying OAC exposure on outcomes quantified using Cox proportional hazards models.

FINDINGS

We included 29,135 (22,818 warfarin, 6317 DOAC); 585 (2.0%) underweight, 8427 (28.9%) normal weight, 10,705 (36.7%) overweight, 5910 (20.3%) class I obesity and 3508 (12.0%) class II/III obesity. Patients treated with DOACs were older and more comorbid. After 3.7 (SD 2.5) years follow up, there was no difference in risk of ischaemic stroke and major bleeding by BMI category between DOACs and warfarin. Normal weight, overweight and obese class I patients had higher risk of all-cause mortality when treated with DOACs compared with warfarin (HR: 1.45 [95% CI 1.24-1.69], p < 0.001; 1.41 [95% CI 1.19-1.66], p < 0.001; and 1.90 [95% CI 1.50-2.39], p < 0.001), an effect not observed after DOACs became the most common OAC prescription. Amongst underweight patients OAC exposure was associated with greater harm from bleeding than benefit from stroke prevention (benefit to harm ratio, 0.35 [95% CI 0.26-0.44]).

INTERPRETATION

In patients with AF in each BMI classification we found no difference in ischaemic stroke and bleeding risk for DOACs compared with warfarin. Underweight patients experienced divergent risk-benefit patterns from oral anticoagulation compared with other BMI categories.

FUNDING

None.

The acceptability of asking women to delay removal of a long-acting reversible contraceptive to take part in a preconception weight loss programme: a mixed methods study using qualitative and routine data (Plan-it)

Background

Having a body mass index (BMI) which is classified as overweight (BMI ≥ 25) or obese (BMI ≥ 30) increases the risk of complications during pregnancy and labour. Weight-management interventions which target excess gestational weight gain during pregnancy have had limited success. Women who use long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) are in contact with services as part of their preparation for conception, creating a potential opportunity to offer a preconception weight-loss intervention.

The aims of this mixed methods study were to assess the acceptability and practicability of a weight-loss intervention which asked people to delay LARC removal in order to lose weight before conceiving.

Methods

Routine UK NHS data were analysed to identify pathways from LARC removal to pregnancy. Qualitative surveys and advisory group discussions with service providers and LARC users with experience of being overweight were conducted and analysed thematically.

Results

Three hundred fifteen thousand seven hundred fifty-five UK women aged 16–48 years between 2009–2018 had at least one LARC-related event (e.g. insertion, removal) and 1.7% of those events were recorded as related to planning a pregnancy. BMI was included in 62% of women’s records, with 54% of those BMI being classified as overweight or obese. Online surveys were completed by 100 healthcare practitioners and 243 LARC users. Stakeholders identified facilitators and barriers associated with the proposed intervention including sensitivities of discussing weight, service-user past experiences, practitioner skills, the setting and ethical implications of the proposed intervention.

Conclusions

Although women and service providers recognised potential benefits, a preconception weight-loss intervention asking people to delay LARC removal posed many barriers, due mainly to the acceptability of such an intervention to women and healthcare practitioners. Weight-loss interventions that target the general population, together with a focus on improving public knowledge of preconception health, may be more acceptable than interventions which solely focus on LARC users. Many of the barriers identified, including communication, understanding and beliefs about weight and risk, appointment systems and the limitations of routine datasets also have relevance for any preconception weight-loss intervention. Work to improve routine datasets and reducing communication barriers to discussing weight are priorities.

Trial registration

ISRCTN14733020 registered 10.05.2019.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-022-05077-0.

BMI and HbA1c are metabolic markers for pancreatic cancer: Matched case-control study using a UK primary care database

Background

Weight loss, hyperglycaemia and diabetes are known features of pancreatic cancer. We quantified the timing and the amount of changes in body mass index (BMI) and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and their association with pancreatic cancer from five years before diagnosis.

Methods

A matched case-control study was undertaken within 590 primary care practices in England, United Kingdom. 8,777 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (cases) between 1^st January 2007 and 31^st August 2020 were matched to 34,979 controls by age, gender and diabetes. Longitudinal trends in BMI and HbA1c were visualised. Odds ratios adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated with conditional logistic regression. Subgroup analyses were undertaken according to the diabetes status.

Results

Changes in BMI and HbA1c observed for cases on longitudinal plots started one and two years (respectively) before diagnosis. In the year before diagnosis, a 1 kg/m² decrease in BMI between cases and controls was associated with aOR for pancreatic cancer of 1.05 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.06), and a 1 mmol/mol increase in HbA1c was associated with aOR of 1.06 (1.06 to 1.07). ORs remained statistically significant (p < 0.001) for 2 years before pancreatic cancer diagnosis for BMI and 3 years for HbA1c. Subgroup analysis revealed that the decrease in BMI was associated with a higher pancreatic cancer risk for people with diabetes than for people without (aORs 1.08, 1.06 to 1.09 versus 1.04, 1.03 to 1.05), but the increase in HbA1c was associated with a higher risk for people without diabetes than for people with diabetes (aORs 1.09, 1.07 to 1.11 versus 1.04, 1.03 to 1.04).

Conclusions

The statistically significant changes in weight and glycaemic control started three years before pancreatic cancer diagnosis but varied according to the diabetes status. The information from this study could be used to detect pancreatic cancer earlier than is currently achieved. However, regular BMI and HbA1c measurements are required to facilitate future research and implementation in clinical practice.

Selection of eligible participants for screening for lung cancer using primary care data

Lung cancer screening is effective if offered to people at increased risk of the disease. Currently, direct contact with potential participants is required for evaluating risk. A way to reduce the number of ineligible people contacted might be to apply risk-prediction models directly to digital primary care data, but model performance in this setting is unknown.

METHOD

The Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a computerised, longitudinal primary care database, was used to evaluate the Liverpool Lung Project V.2 (LLPv2) and Prostate Lung Colorectal and Ovarian (modified 2012) (PLCOm2012) models. Lung cancer occurrence over 5-6 years was measured in ever-smokers aged 50-80 years and compared with 5-year (LLPv2) and 6-year (PLCOm2012) predicted risk.

RESULTS

Over 5 and 6 years, 7123 and 7876 lung cancers occurred, respectively, from a cohort of 842 109 ever-smokers. After recalibration, LLPV2 produced a c-statistic of 0.700 (0.694-0.710), but mean predicted risk was over-estimated (predicted: 4.61%, actual: 0.9%). PLCOm2012 showed similar performance (c-statistic: 0.679 (0.673-0.685), predicted risk: 3.76%. Applying risk-thresholds of 1% (LLPv2) and 0.15% (PLCOm2012), would avoid contacting 42.7% and 27.4% of ever-smokers who did not develop lung cancer for screening eligibility assessment, at the cost of missing 15.6% and 11.4% of lung cancers.

CONCLUSION

Risk-prediction models showed only moderate discrimination when applied to routinely collected primary care data, which may be explained by quality and completeness of data. However, they may substantially reduce the number of people for initial evaluation of screening eligibility, at the cost of missing some lung cancers. Further work is needed to establish whether newer models have improved performance in primary care data.

Real-world bleeding in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and prescribed different combinations of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) in England: a population-based cohort study emulating a 'target trial'

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence and HRs for bleeding for different dual antiplatelet therapies (DAPT) in a real-world population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in England.

DESIGN

A retrospective, population-based cohort study emulating a target randomised controlled trial (tRCT).

DATA SOURCES

Linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES).

SETTING

Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients ≥18 years old with ACS undergoing emergency PCI.

INTERVENTIONS

Aspirin and clopidogrel (AC, reference) versus aspirin and prasugrel (AP) or aspirin and ticagrelor (AT); AP evaluated only in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary: any bleeding up to 12 months after the index event (HES- or CPRD- recorded). Secondary: HES-recorded bleeding, CPRD-recorded bleeding, all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, mortality from bleeding, myocardial infarction, stroke, additional coronary intervention and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE).

RESULTS

In ACS, the rates of any bleeding for AC and AT were 89 per 1000 person years and 134 per 1000 person years, respectively. In STEMI, rates for AC, AP and AT were 93 per 1000 person years, 138 per 1000 person years and 143 per 100 person years, respectively. In ACS, compared with AC, AT increased the hazard of any bleeding (HR: 1.47, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.82) but did not reduce MACCE (HR: 1.06, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.27). In STEMI, compared with AC, AP and AT increased the hazard of any bleeding (HR: 1.77, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.59 and HR: 1.50, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.05, respectively) but did not reduce MACCE (HR: 1.10, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.51 and HR: 1.21, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.51, respectively). Non-adherence to the prescribed DAPT regimen was 28% in AC (29% in STEMI only), 31% in AP (STEMI only) and 33% in AT (32% in STEMI only).

CONCLUSIONS

In a real-world population with ACS, DAPT with ticagrelor or prasugrel are associated with increased bleeding compared with DAPT with clopidogrel.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN76607611.

Use of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors, changes in body mass index and risk of fracture: A population-based cohort study

AIMS

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor-induced weight loss might play a role in the debated elevated fracture risk with these agents. The aim of the current study was to investigate the association between SGLT-2 inhibitor use, changes in body mass index (BMI) and fracture risk.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD (2013-2018). The study population (N = 34,960) consisted of adults with diabetes initiating a sulphonylurea or SGLT-2 inhibitor. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for major osteoporotic fracture with SGLT-2 inhibitor use versus sulphonylurea use, stratified by change in BMI, average daily dose and cumulative dose. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, lifestyle variables, comorbidities, and concomitant drug use.

RESULTS

SGLT-2 inhibitor use was not associated with an increased fracture risk compared to sulphonylurea use (adjusted HR 1.19; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80-1.79). This finding remained consistent after stratification by BMI change. However, the highest cumulative dose category was associated with an increased fracture risk (adjusted HR: 2.10, 95 %CI: 1.11-3.99).

CONCLUSION

SGLT-2 inhibitor use was not associated with increased osteoporotic fracture risk, irrespective of change in BMI. However, a high cumulative dose could be an important risk factor.

Completeness and representativeness of small area socioeconomic data linked with the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)

BACKGROUND

The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) holds primary care electronic healthcare records for 25% of the UK population. CPRD data can be linked via practice postcode in the UK, and additionally via patient postcode in England, to area-level socioeconomic status (SES) data including the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), the Carstairs Index and the Townsend Deprivation Index; as well as rural-urban classification (RUC). This study aims to describe the completeness and representativeness of CPRD-linked SES and RUC data.

METHODS

Patients currently registered at general practices contributing data to the May 2021 snapshots of CPRD GOLD (n=445 587) and CPRD Aurum (n=13 278 825) were used to assess the completeness and representativeness of CPRD-linked SES and RUC data against the UK general population.

RESULTS

All currently registered patients had complete SES and RUC data at practice level across the UK. Most English patients in CPRD GOLD (78%), CPRD Aurum (94%) and combined (93%) had SES and RUC data at patient level. Patient-level SES data in CPRD for England were comparable to England's general population (average IMD decile in CPRD 5.52±0.00 vs 5.50±0.02). CPRD UK practices were on average in more deprived areas than the UK general population (6.06±0.07 vs 5.50±0.02). A slightly higher proportion of CPRD patients and practices were from urban areas (85%) as compared with the UK general population (82%).

CONCLUSION

Completeness of CPRD-linked SES and RUC data is high. The CPRD populations were broadly representative of the general populations in the UK in terms of SES and RUC.

Treatment and prescribing trends of antihypertensive drugs in 2.7 million UK primary care patients over 31 years: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the prescribing trends of antihypertensive drugs in primary care patients and assess the trajectory of antihypertensive drug prescriptions, from first-line to third-line, in patients with hypertension according to changes to the United Kingdom (UK) hypertension management guidelines.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We used the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, an electronic primary care database representative of the UK population. Between 1988 and 2018, we identified all adult patients with at least one prescription for a thiazide diuretic, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, angiotensin receptor blocker, beta-blocker or calcium channel blocker (CCB).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We estimated the period prevalence of patients with antihypertensive drug prescriptions for each calendar year over a 31-year period. Treatment trajectory was assessed by identifying patients with hypertension newly initiating an antihypertensive drug, and treatment changes were defined by a switch or add-on of a new class. This cohort was stratified before and after 2007, the year following important changes to UK hypertension management guidelines.

RESULTS

The cohort included 2 709 241 patients. The prevalence of primary care patients with antihypertensive drug prescriptions increased from 7.8% (1988) to 21.9% (2018) and was observed for all major classes except thiazide diuretics. Patients with hypertension initiated thiazide diuretics (36.8%) and beta-blockers (23.6%) as first-line drugs before 2007, and ACE inhibitors (39.9%) and CCBs (31.8%) after 2007. After 2007, 17.3% were not prescribed guideline-recommended first-line agents. Overall, patients were prescribed a median of 2 classes (IQR 1-2) after first-line treatment.

CONCLUSION

Nearly one-quarter of primary care patients were prescribed antihypertensive drugs by the end of the study period. Most patients with hypertension initiated guideline-recommended first-line agents. Not all patients, particularly females, were prescribed recommended agents however, potentially leading to suboptimal cardiovascular outcomes. Future research should aim to better understand the implication of this finding.

Alcohol use recording in adults with depression in English primary care: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate alcohol use recording in people with newly diagnosed depression in English primary care and individual characteristics associated with the recording of alcohol use.

DESIGN

A population-based cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Primary care data from English practices contributing to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

PARTICIPANTS

We included adults (18+ years) diagnosed with depression between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2017 without previous antidepressant use and at least 1 year of registration before diagnosis.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

We described the proportion of individuals with alcohol use and level of alcohol use recorded at four time points (the date of depression diagnosis, 3 months before or after depression diagnosis, 12 months before or after depression diagnosis and any point pre or postdepression diagnosis). We used logistic regression to investigate individual characteristics associated with alcohol use recording in the 3 months before or after depression diagnosis.

RESULTS

We identified 36 424 adults with depression. 538 (2%) had alcohol use recorded in the 3 months before or after depression diagnosis using formal validated methods such as the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and its abbreviated versions. At each time point, most individuals with alcohol use recorded were low risk drinkers. Alcohol use recording in the 3 months before or after depression diagnosis was associated with male sex (OR=1.38, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.48) and several other individual-level factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows low levels of alcohol use recording in the 3 months before or after depression diagnosis. Levels of alcohol use recording varied depending on individual characteristics. Incentivised recording of alcohol use will increase completeness, which could improve clinical management and reduce missed opportunities for care in people with depression.

Changes in ankylosing spondylitis incidence, prevalence and time to diagnosis over two decades

Objectives

To assess changes in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) incidence, prevalence and time to diagnosis, between 1998 and 2017.

Methods

Using UK GP data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified patients diagnosed with AS between 1998 and 2017. We estimated the annual AS incidence, prevalence and length of time from first recorded symptom of back pain to rheumatology referral and diagnosis.

Results

We identified 12 333 patients with AS. The incidence declined from 0.72 (±0.14) per 10 000 patient-years in 1998 to 0.39 (±0.06) in 2007, with this decline significant only in men, then incidence rose to 0.57 (±0.11) in 2017. By contrast, prevalence increased between 1998 and 2017 (from 0.13%±0.006 to 0.18%±0.006), rising steeply among women (from 0.06%±0.05 to 0.10%±0.06) and patients aged ≥60 (from 0.14%±0.01 to 0.26%±0.01). The overall median time from first symptom to rheumatology referral was 4.87 years (IQR=1.42–10.23). The median time from first symptom to diagnosis rose between 1998 and 2017 (from 3.62 years (IQR=1.14–7.07) to 8.31 (IQR=3.77–15.89)) and was longer in women (6.71 (IQR=2.30–12.36)) than men (5.65 (IQR=1.66–11.20)).

Conclusion

AS incidence declined significantly between 1998 and 2007, with an increase between 2007 and 2017 that may be explained by an improvement in the recognition of AS or confidence in diagnosing AS over time, stemming from increased awareness of inflammatory back pain and the importance of early treatment. The rising AS prevalence may indicate improved patient survival. The persisting delay in rheumatology referral and diagnosis remains of concern, particularly in women.

Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Inhibitors and Risk of Acute Pancreatitis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

There are conflicting reports on the effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) on acute pancreatitis incidence.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to determine whether use of ACE inhibitors and ARBs is associated with the incidence of acute pancreatitis, compared with use of dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers (dCCBs).

METHODS

We assembled two population-based, new-user, active comparator cohorts using the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to the Hospital Episode Statistics repository and Office for National Statistics from 1998 to 2018, with follow-up until 2019. The first cohort included 304,083 ACE inhibitor initiators and 194,431 dCCB initiators. The second cohort included 29,160 ARB initiators and 203,610 dCCB initiators. Cox proportional hazards models were fit to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of acute pancreatitis, comparing ACE inhibitors and ARBs, separately, with dCCBs. Models were weighted using standardized mortality ratio weights generated from calendar time-specific propensity scores.

RESULTS

ACE inhibitors were associated with an increased risk of acute pancreatitis, compared with dCCBs (64.3 vs 45.2 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.15-1.83). The number needed to harm after 2 and 5 years of use was 2438 and 1019, respectively. In contrast, ARBs were not associated with an increased risk of acute pancreatitis, compared with dCCBs (40.1 vs 47.6 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.60-1.31).

CONCLUSIONS

ACE inhibitors were associated with a modest increased risk of acute pancreatitis compared with dCCBs. This association should be balanced with the known clinical benefits of ACE inhibitors in hypertension management. In contrast, no association was observed with ARBs.

Identifying adults at high-risk for change in weight and BMI in England: a longitudinal, large-scale, population-based cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Targeted obesity prevention policies would benefit from the identification of population groups with the highest risk of weight gain. The relative importance of adult age, sex, ethnicity, geographical region, and degree of social deprivation on weight gain is not known. We aimed to identify high-risk groups for changes in weight and BMI using electronic health records (EHR).

METHODS

In this longitudinal, population-based cohort study we used linked EHR data from 400 primary care practices (via the Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in England, accessed via the CALIBER programme. Eligible participants were aged 18-74 years, were registered at a general practice clinic, and had BMI and weight measurements recorded between Jan 1, 1998, and June 30, 2016, during the period when they had eligible linked data with at least 1 year of follow-up time. We calculated longitudinal changes in BMI over 1, 5, and 10 years, and investigated the absolute risk and odds ratios (ORs) of transitioning between BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1 and 2, and severe obesity [class 3]), as defined by WHO. The associations of demographic factors with BMI transitions were estimated by use of logistic regression analysis, adjusting for baseline BMI, family history of cardiovascular disease, use of diuretics, and prevalent chronic conditions.

FINDINGS

We included 2 092 260 eligible individuals with more than 9 million BMI measurements in our study. Young adult age was the strongest risk factor for weight gain at 1, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Compared with the oldest age group (65-74 years), adults in the youngest age group (18-24 years) had the highest OR (4·22 [95% CI 3·86-4·62]) and greatest absolute risk (37% vs 24%) of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity at 10 years. Likewise, adults in the youngest age group with overweight or obesity at baseline were also at highest risk to transition to a higher BMI category; OR 4·60 (4·06-5·22) and absolute risk (42% vs 18%) of transitioning from overweight to class 1 and 2 obesity, and OR 5·87 (5·23-6·59) and absolute risk (22% vs 5%) of transitioning from class 1 and 2 obesity to class 3 obesity. Other demographic factors were consistently less strongly associated with these transitions; for example, the OR of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity in people living in the most socially deprived versus least deprived areas was 1·23 (1·18-1·27), for men versus women was 1·12 (1·08-1·16), and for Black individuals versus White individuals was 1·13 (1·04-1·24). We provide an open access online risk calculator, and present high-resolution obesity risk charts over a 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year follow-up period.

INTERPRETATION

A radical shift in policy is required to focus on individuals at the highest risk of weight gain (ie, young adults aged 18-24 years) for individual-level and population-level prevention of obesity and its long-term consequences for health and health care.

FUNDING

The British Hearth Foundation, Health Data Research UK, the UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research.

Prevalence of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Osteoarthritis Patients Derived from Primary Care Records: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies

Background

People with osteoarthritis are at a high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Detecting CVD risk factors in this high-risk population will help to improve CVD outcomes. Primary care electronic health records (EHRs) provide opportunities for the surveillance of CVD risk factors in the osteoarthritis population. This paper aimed to systematically review evidence of prevalence estimates of CVD risk factors in people with osteoarthritis derived from primary care EHRs.

Methods

Eight databases including MEDLINE were systematically searched till January 2019. Observational studies using primary care EHRs data to estimate the prevalence of six CVD risk factors in people with osteoarthritis were included. A narrative review was conducted to summarize study results.

Results

Six studies were identified. High heterogeneity between studies prevented the calculation of pooled estimates. One study reported the prevalence of smoking (12.5%); five reported hypertensions (range: 19.7%-55.5%); four reported obesities (range: 34.4%-51.6%); two reported dyslipidemias (6.0%, 13.3%); five reported diabetes (range: 5.2%-18.6%); and one reported chronic kidney disease (1.8%) in people with osteoarthritis. One study reported a higher prevalence of hypertension (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-1.32), obesity (OR 2.44, 95%CI 2.33-2.55), dyslipidemia (OR 1.24, 95%CI 1.14-1.35) and diabetes (1.11, 95%CI 1.02-1.22) in the osteoarthritis population compared with the matched non-osteoarthritis population.

Conclusions

From studies identified in this review that had used primary care EHRs, prevalence estimates of CVD risk factors were higher in people with osteoarthritis compared with those without. These estimates may provide baseline frequency of CVD risk factors in osteoarthritis patients in primary care, although this is limited by the small number of studies and high heterogeneity. Further studies of frequency, using primary care EHRs, will help to answer whether this data source can be used for evaluating approaches to manage CVD risk factors in osteoarthritis patients.

Protocol for an observational cohort study investigating personalised medicine for intensification of treatment in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the PERMIT study

INTRODUCTION

For people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who require an antidiabetic drug as an add-on to metformin, there is controversy about whether newer drug classes such as dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) or sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) reduce the risk of long-term complications compared with sulfonylureas (SU). There is widespread variation across National Health Service Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in drug choice for second-line treatment in part because National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines do not specify a single preferred drug class, either overall or within specific patient subgroups. This study will evaluate the relative effectiveness of the three most common second-line treatments in the UK (SU, DPP4i and SGLT2i as add-ons to metformin) and help target treatments according to individual risk profiles.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study includes people with T2DM prescribed one of the second-line treatments-of-interest between 2014 and 2020 within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics. We will use an instrumental variable (IV) method to estimate short-term and long-term relative effectiveness of second-line treatments according to individuals' risk profiles. This method minimises bias from unmeasured confounders by exploiting the natural variation in second-line prescribing across CCGs as an IV for the choice of prescribed treatment. The primary outcome to assess short-term effectiveness will be change in haemoglobin A1c (%) 12 months after treatment initiation. Outcome measures to assess longer-term effectiveness (maximum ~6 years) will include microvascular and macrovascular complications, all-cause mortality and hospital admissions during follow-up.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (20-064) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Research Ethics Committee (21395). Results, codelists and other analysis code will be made available to patients, clinicians, policy-makers and researchers.

Changes in the pharmacological management of rheumatoid arthritis over two decades

Objectives

To assess whether modern management of RA has reduced the prescription of oral corticosteroids and NSAIDs and to evaluate use of pharmacological prophylaxis strategies.

Methods

Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we explored long-term (≥3/12 months; ≥6/12 in sub-analyses) DMARD, corticosteroid and NSAID prescribing (annually, in the year post-diagnosis and across the patient’s life course to 15 years post-diagnosis), annual proportion with co-prescribing for prophylaxis of associated bone (corticosteroids, women only) and gastrointestinal (NSAIDs) comorbidity.

Results

Reported incidence of RA was 5.98 (0.37) per 10 000 person-years and prevalence was 0.91% (0.014) in 2017. In 71 411 RA patients, long-term DMARD prescribing initially rose post-diagnosis from 41.6% in 1998 to 67.9% in 2009. Corticosteroid prescribing changed little, overall [22.2% in 1998, 19.1% in 2016; incident risk ratio (IRR) 0.92, 95% CI: 0.82, 1.03] and across the life course from the first to fifteenth year (22.2% to 16.9%). NSAID prescribing declined from 57.7% in 1998, and significantly so from 2008, to 27.1% in 2016 (IRR 0.50, 95% CI: 0.44, 0.56). This continued across the life course (41.2% to 28.4%). Bone prophylaxis increased to 68.1% in 2008 before declining to 56.4% in 2017; gastrointestinal prophylaxis increased from 11.5% in 1998 to 62.6% in 2017. Sub-analyses showed consistent patterns.

Conclusion

Despite modern treatment strategies, corticosteroid prescribing in RA patients remains substantial and persists beyond 6 months once initiated. Rheumatologists need to determine causes and develop strategies to reduce corticosteroid use to minimize adverse event occurrence.

Long-term weight gain in obese COPD patients participating in a disease management program: a risk factor for reduced health-related quality of life

BACKGROUND

Little is known about how long-term weight gain affects the health perception of COPD patients.

OBJECTIVES

The aim is to evaluate the long-term association of BMI change and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in obese COPD patients.

METHODS

Claims and survey data from a COPD disease management program were used to match two groups of COPD patients with BMI ≥ 30 who have differing weight trajectories over a 5-year timespan via propensity score and genetic matching. EQ-5D-5L, including visual analog scale (VAS) and COPD Assessment Test (CAT), were used as outcomes of interest. Sociodemographic and disease-based variables were matched.

RESULTS

Out of 1202 obese COPD patients, 126 with a weight increase of four or more BMI points were matched separately with 252 (propensity score matching) and 197 (genetic matching) control subjects who had relatively stable BMI. For the EQ-5D-5L, patients with BMI increase reported significantly worse health perception for VAS and all descriptive dimensions except pain/discomfort. For the CAT, especially the perception of ability to complete daily activities and overall energy results were significantly worse. VAS differences reach the range of minimal important differences. Stopping smoking and already being in obesity class II were the most influential risk factors for BMI increase.

CONCLUSION

Obese COPD patients who gain four or more BMI points over 5 years report significantly lower results in different dimensions of generic and disease-specific HRQoL than their peers with stable BMI. To improve real-world outcomes, tracking and preventing specific BMI trajectories could constitute a clinically relevant aspect of managing COPD patients.

Atherosclerotic disease burden after bariatric surgery in patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

The rising rates of obesity, along with its associated morbidities, represent an important global health threat. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is among the most common and hazardous obesity-related morbidity, and it is especially prevalent among those who suffer from type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Bariatric surgery (BS) is known to help with effective weight management and reduce the burden of cardiovascular risk factors, especially T2DM.

METHODS

A nested propensity-matched cohort study was carried out using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The cohort included 1186 patients with no past history of ASCVD, 593 of whom underwent BS and 593 propensity-score matched controls, followed up for a mean of 42.7 months. The primary end point was the incidence of new ASCVD; defined as new coronary artery disease (CAD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), peripheral arterial disease (PAD), or miscellaneous atherosclerotic disease; secondary end points included primary end point components alone and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Patients who underwent BS had significantly lower rates of new ASCVD (hazard ratio [HR] 0.53, confidence interval [CI] 0.30-0.95, P = 0.032. There were no significant differences in rates of CAD, CeVD, and PAD individually across cohorts, but a lower rate of all-cause mortality was observed in the BS cohort (HR 0.36, CI 0.19-0.71, P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

BS was associated with improved ASCVD outcomes and lower mortality in patients with obesity and T2DM. This study provides evidence for increased awareness of potential benefits of BS in the management of obesity by highlighting a potential role in primary prevention for ASCVD.

Factors associated with deaths due to COVID-19 versus other causes: population-based cohort analysis of UK primary care data and linked national death registrations within the OpenSAFELY platform

BACKGROUND

Mortality from COVID-19 shows a strong relationship with age and pre-existing medical conditions, as does mortality from other causes. We aimed to investigate how specific factors are differentially associated with COVID-19 mortality as compared to mortality from causes other than COVID-19.

METHODS

Working on behalf of NHS England, we carried out a cohort study within the OpenSAFELY platform. Primary care data from England were linked to national death registrations. We included all adults (aged ≥18 years) in the database on 1st February 2020 and with >1 year of continuous prior registration; the cut-off date for deaths was 9th November 2020. Associations between individual-level characteristics and COVID-19 and non-COVID deaths, classified according to the presence of a COVID-19 code as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate, were estimated by fitting age- and sex-adjusted logistic models for these two outcomes.

FINDINGS

17,456,515 individuals were included. 17,063 died from COVID-19 and 134,316 from other causes. Most factors associated with COVID-19 death were similarly associated with non-COVID death, but the magnitudes of association differed. Older age was more strongly associated with COVID-19 death than non-COVID death (e.g. ORs 40.7 [95% CI 37.7-43.8] and 29.6 [28.9-30.3] respectively for ≥80 vs 50-59 years), as was male sex, deprivation, obesity, and some comorbidities. Smoking, history of cancer and chronic liver disease had stronger associations with non-COVID than COVID-19 death. All non-white ethnic groups had higher odds than white of COVID-19 death (OR for Black: 2.20 [1.96-2.47], South Asian: 2.33 [2.16-2.52]), but lower odds than white of non-COVID death (Black: 0.88 [0.83-0.94], South Asian: 0.78 [0.75-0.81]).

INTERPRETATION

Similar associations of most individual-level factors with COVID-19 and non-COVID death suggest that COVID-19 largely multiplies existing risks faced by patients, with some notable exceptions. Identifying the unique factors contributing to the excess COVID-19 mortality risk among non-white groups is a priority to inform efforts to reduce deaths from COVID-19.

FUNDING

Wellcome, Royal Society, National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK.

Social determinants of pertussis and influenza vaccine uptake in pregnancy: a national cohort study in England using electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

To examine the social determinants of influenza and pertussis vaccine uptake among pregnant women in England.

DESIGN

Nationwide population-based cohort study.

SETTING

The study used anonymised primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care data.

PARTICIPANTS

Pregnant women eligible for pertussis (2012-2015, n=68 090) or influenza (2010/2011-2015/2016, n=152 132) vaccination in England.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Influenza and pertussis vaccine uptake.

RESULTS

Vaccine uptake was 67.3% for pertussis and 39.1% for influenza. Uptake of both vaccines varied by region, with the lowest uptakes in London and the North East. Lower vaccine uptake was associated with greater deprivation: almost 10% lower in the most deprived quintiles compared with the least deprived for influenza (34.5% vs 44.0%), and almost 20% lower for pertussis (57.7% vs 76.0%). Lower uptake for both vaccines was also associated with non-white ethnicity (lowest among women of black ethnicity), maternal age under 20 years and a greater number of children in the household. The associations between all social factors and vaccine uptake were broadly unchanged in fully adjusted models, suggesting the social determinants of uptake were largely independent of one another. Among 3111 women vaccinated against pertussis in their first eligible pregnancy and pregnant again, 1234 (40%) were not vaccinated in their second eligible pregnancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting promotional campaigns to pregnant women who are younger, of non-white ethnicity, with more children, living in areas of greater deprivation or the London or North East regions, has potential to reduce vaccine-preventable disease among infants and pregnant women, and to reduce health inequalities. Vaccination promotion needs to be sustained across successive pregnancies. Further research is needed into whether the effectiveness of vaccine promotion strategies may vary according to social factors.

Can we screen for pancreatic cancer? Identifying a sub-population of patients at high risk of subsequent diagnosis using machine learning techniques applied to primary care data

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer (PC) represents a substantial public health burden. Pancreatic cancer patients have very low survival due to the difficulty of identifying cancers early when the tumour is localised to the site of origin and treatable. Recent progress has been made in identifying biomarkers for PC in the blood and urine, but these cannot be used for population-based screening as this would be prohibitively expensive and potentially harmful.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study using prospectively-collected electronic health records from primary care individually-linked to cancer registrations. Our cases were comprised of 1,139 patients, aged 15-99 years, diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between January 1, 2005 and June 30, 2009. Each case was age-, sex- and diagnosis time-matched to four non-pancreatic (cancer patient) controls. Disease and prescription codes for the 24 months prior to diagnosis were used to identify 57 individual symptoms. Using a machine learning approach, we trained a logistic regression model on 75% of the data to predict patients who later developed PC and tested the model's performance on the remaining 25%.

RESULTS

We were able to identify 41.3% of patients < = 60 years at 'high risk' of developing pancreatic cancer up to 20 months prior to diagnosis with 72.5% sensitivity, 59% specificity and, 66% AUC. 43.2% of patients >60 years were similarly identified at 17 months, with 65% sensitivity, 57% specificity and, 61% AUC. We estimate that combining our algorithm with currently available biomarker tests could result in 30 older and 400 younger patients per cancer being identified as 'potential patients', and the earlier diagnosis of around 60% of tumours.

CONCLUSION

After further work this approach could be applied in the primary care setting and has the potential to be used alongside a non-invasive biomarker test to increase earlier diagnosis. This would result in a greater number of patients surviving this devastating disease.

Association Between Atopic Eczema and Cancer in England and Denmark

Question

Is atopic eczema associated with increased cancer risk?

Findings

In 2 large cohort studies conducted in England (471 970 and 2 239 775 individuals with and without atopic eczema, respectively) and Denmark (44 945 and 445 673 individuals with and without atopic eczema, respectively), no evidence was found of an increased risk of most cancers among people with atopic eczema compared with those without eczema. However, atopic eczema was associated with an increased risk of lymphoma, particularly non-Hodgkin lymphoma, with risk increasing with greater eczema severity.

Meaning

The findings in this study did not support an association between atopic eczema and most cancers; however, there was evidence of higher lymphoma risk with increasing eczema severity.

Importance

Associations between atopic eczema and cancer are unclear, with competing theories that increased immune surveillance decreases cancer risk and that immune stimulation increases cancer risk. Establishing baseline cancer risk in people with atopic eczema is important before exploring the association between new biologic drugs for atopic eczema and cancer risk.

Objective

To investigate whether atopic eczema is associated with cancer.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Matched cohort studies were conducted from January 2, 1998, to March 31, 2016, in England and from January 1, 1982, to June 30, 2016, in Denmark. We conducted our analyses between July 2018 and July 2019. The setting was English primary care and nationwide Danish data. Participants with atopic eczema (adults only in England and any age in Denmark) were matched on age, sex, and calendar period (as well as primary care practice in England only) to those without atopic eczema.

Exposure

Atopic eczema.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Overall cancer risk and risk of specific cancers were compared in people with and without atopic eczema.

Results

In England, matched cohorts included 471 970 individuals with atopic eczema (median [IQR] age, 41.1 [24.9-60.7] years; 276 510 [58.6%] female) and 2 239 775 individuals without atopic eczema (median [IQR] age, 39.8 [25.9-58.4] years; 1 301 074 [58.1%] female). In Denmark, matched cohorts included 44 945 individuals with atopic eczema (median [IQR] age, 13.7 [1.7-21.1] years; 22 826 [50.8%] female) and 445 673 individuals without atopic eczema (median [IQR] age, 13.5 [1.7-20.8] years; 226 323 [50.8%] female). Little evidence was found of associations between atopic eczema and overall cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.04; 99% CI, 1.02-1.06 in England and 1.05; 99% CI, 0.95-1.16 in Denmark) or for most specific cancers. However, noncutaneous lymphoma risk was increased in people with atopic eczema in England (adjusted HR, 1.19; 99% CI, 1.07-1.34 for non-Hodgkin lymphoma [NHL] and 1.48; 99% CI, 1.07-2.04 for Hodgkin lymphoma). Lymphoma risk was increased in people with greater eczema severity vs those without atopic eczema (NHL adjusted HR, 1.06; 99% CI, 0.90-1.25 for mild eczema; 1.24; 99% CI, 1.04-1.48 for moderate eczema; and 2.08; 99% CI, 1.42-3.04 for severe eczema). Danish point estimates also showed increased lymphoma risk in people with moderate to severe eczema compared with those without atopic eczema (minimally adjusted HR, 1.31; 99% CI, 0.76-2.26 for NHL and 1.35; 99% CI, 0.65-2.82 for Hodgkin lymphoma), but the 99% CIs were wide.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings from 2 large population-based studies performed in different settings do not support associations between atopic eczema and most cancers. However, an association was observed between atopic eczema and lymphoma, particularly NHL, that increased with eczema severity. This finding warrants further study as new immunomodulatory systemic therapeutics are brought to market that may alter cancer risk.

Are socio-economic inequalities in breast cancer survival explained by peri-diagnostic factors?

BACKGROUND

Patients living in more deprived localities have lower cancer survival in England, but the role of individual health status at diagnosis and the utilisation of primary health care in explaining these differentials has not been widely considered. We set out to evaluate whether pre-existing individual health status at diagnosis and primary care consultation history (peri-diagnostic factors) could explain socio-economic differentials in survival amongst women diagnosed with breast cancer.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of women aged 15-99 years diagnosed in England using linked routine data. Ecologically-derived measures of income deprivation were combined with individually-linked data from the English National Cancer Registry, Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) databases. Smoking status, alcohol consumption, BMI, comorbidity, and consultation histories were derived for all patients. Time to breast surgery was derived for women diagnosed after 2005. We estimated net survival and modelled the excess hazard ratio of breast cancer death using flexible parametric models. We accounted for missing data using multiple imputation.

RESULTS

Net survival was lower amongst more deprived women, with a single unit increase in deprivation quintile inferring a 4.4% (95% CI 1.4-8.8) increase in excess mortality. Peri-diagnostic co-variables varied by deprivation but did not explain the differentials in multivariable analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

These data show that socio-economic inequalities in survival cannot be explained by consultation history or by pre-existing individual health status, as measured in primary care. Differentials in the effectiveness of treatment, beyond those measuring the inclusion of breast surgery and the timing of surgery, should be considered as part of the wider effort to reduce inequalities in premature mortality.

Epidemiology and outcomes of gastroparesis, as documented in general practice records, in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

To generate real-world evidence for the epidemiology of gastroparesis in the UK, we evaluated the prevalence, incidence, patient characteristics and outcomes of gastroparesis in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study. Prevalence and incidence of gastroparesis were evaluated in the CPRD database, with linkage to Hospital Episodes Statistics Admitted Patient Care and Office for National Statistics mortality data. Prevalence and incidence were age and sex standardised to mid-2017 UK population estimates. Descriptive analyses of demographics, aetiologies, pharmacological therapies and mortality were conducted.

RESULTS

Standardised prevalence of gastroparesis, as documented in general practice records, was 13.8 (95% CI 12.6 to 15.1) per 100 000 persons in 2016, and standardised incidence of gastroparesis rose from 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.8) per 100 000 person-years in 2004 to 1.9 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.3) per 100 000 person-years in 2016. The most common disease aetiologies were idiopathic (39.4%) and diabetic gastroparesis (37.5%), with a similar distribution of type 1 and type 2 diabetes among the 90% who had type of diabetes documented. Patients with diabetic gastroparesis had a significantly higher risk of mortality than those with idiopathic gastroparesis after diagnosis (adjusted HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2 to 3.0). Of those with gastroparesis, 31.6% were not offered any recognised pharmacological therapy after diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

This is, to our knowledge, the first population-based study providing data on epidemiology and outcomes of gastroparesis in Europe. Further research is required to fully understand the factors influencing outcomes and survival of patients with gastroparesis.

Long-term cerebrovascular outcomes after bariatric surgery: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The proinflammatory state and metabolic changes associated with obesity contribute to cerebrovascular disease. Bariatric surgery can achieve a reliable reduction in body weight and improved metabolic profile in obese patients. However, its impact on cerebrovascular morbidity remains unexplored. This study investigates the effect of bariatric surgery on long-term risk of major cerebrovascular events.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was designed. Data was extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. 4212 bariatric surgery patients were compared to 4212 age, sex, and BMI-matched controls. The primary composite endpoint was occurrence of any major adverse cerebrovascular event. Secondary endpoints included composite endpoints of ischaemic events, haemorrhagic events, individual components of the primary endpoint alone and all-cause mortality. An adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was implemented to analyse time to event data.

RESULTS

Mean follow-up length was 11.4 years. The primary endpoint occurred in 73 patients. The bariatric surgery group had significantly lower adjusted major cerebrovascular event rates (HR 0.352, 95 %CI 0.195-0.637). Bariatric surgery was associated with lower rates of ischaemic events (HR 0.315, 95 %CI 0.156-0.635), particularly from transient ischaemic attacks (HR 0.364, 95 %CI 0.171-0.775). There was no difference in the rate of haemorrhagic events (HR 0.442, 95 %CI 0.147-1.330) or acute ischaemic stroke (HR 0.221, 95 %CI 0.046-1.054). In total 229 patients died during follow-up. Overall, all-cause mortality was significantly lower in the bariatric surgery group (HR 0.352, 95 %CI 0.195-0.637).

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies an association between bariatric surgery and lower long-term risk of major adverse cerebrovascular events in patients with obesity.

Safety of antidepressants in a primary care cohort of adults with obesity and depression

BACKGROUND

Obesity, depressive disorders and antidepressant drugs are associated with increased mortality, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, fractures and falls. We explored outcomes associated with the most commonly prescribed antidepressants in overweight or obese people with depression.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We identified a cohort of overweight or obese adults (≥18 years) in primary care from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked with hospital and mortality data, between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2016 who developed incident depression to January 2019. Cox proportional hazards models and 99% confidence intervals were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for mortality, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and falls/fractures associated with exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), tricyclic (TCA)/other, combination antidepressants, citalopram, fluoxetine, sertraline, amitriptyline and mirtazapine, adjusting for potential confounding variables. In 519,513 adults, 32,350 (9.2 per 1,000 years) displayed incident depression and 21,436 (66.3%) were prescribed ≥1 antidepressant. Compared with no antidepressants, all antidepressant classes were associated with increased relative risks of cardiovascular disorders [SSRI HR: 1.32 (1.14-1.53), TCA/Other HR: 1.26 (1.01-1.58)], and diabetes (any type) [SSRI HR: 1.28 (1.10-1.49), TCA/Other: 1.52 (1.19-1.94)]. All commonly prescribed antidepressants except citalopram were associated with increased mortality compared with no antidepressants. However, prescription ≥1 year of ≥40mg citalopram was associated with increased mortality and falls/fractures and ≥1 year 100mg sertraline with increased falls/fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

In overweight/obese people with depression, antidepressants may be overall and differentially associated with increased risks of some adverse outcomes. Further research is required to exclude indication bias and residual confounding.

SGLT-2 inhibitors and the risk of hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia: A population-based cohort study

PURPOSE

Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) have been associated with an increased risk of genitourinary tract infections. Through similar biological mechanisms, they may also increase the risk of community-acquired pneumonia. Our objective was to compare the rate of hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia (HCAP) with SGLT-2i compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) among patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We used the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold, linked to hospitalization data, to construct a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. Using a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model, we estimated the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for HCAP with current use of SGLT-2i versus DPP-4i.

RESULTS

Among 29 896 patients, 705 HCAPs occurred over a mean follow-up of 1.7 years (SD: 1.2). Incidence rates for SGLT-2i and DPP-4i users were 6.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.7, 10.2) and 17.8 (95% CI: 15.3, 20.7) per 1000 person-years, respectively. Current use of SGLT-2i was associated with a decreased risk of HCAP compared to current use of DPP-4i (adjusted HR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.82). However, a comparison of SGLT-2i versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) found no difference in risk of HCAP (adjusted HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.44, 1.89).

CONCLUSIONS

SGLT-2i are associated with a decreased rate of HCAP compared to DPP-4i, but not when compared to GLP-1 RA, among patients with type 2 diabetes.

Long-term incidence and outcomes of obesity-related peripheral vascular disease after bariatric surgery

Background and aims

Patients with obesity are at high risk of suffering from arterial and venous peripheral vascular disease (PVD). Bariatric surgery is an effective strategy to achieve weight reduction for patients with obesity. The long-term impact of bariatric surgery on obesity-related morbidity is subject to increasing research interest. This study aimed to ascertain the impact of bariatric surgery on the long-term occurrence of PVD in patients with obesity.

Methods

The study population was extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a nation-wide database containing primary and secondary care records of consenting patients. The intervention cohort was 2959 patients who had undergone bariatric surgery during follow-up; their controls were 2959 propensity-score-matched counterparts. The primary endpoint was development of any PVD: arterial or venous. Secondary endpoints were incident peripheral arterial disease alone, incident peripheral venous disease alone.

Results

Three hundred forty-six patients suffered a primary endpoint during follow-up. Bariatric surgery did not improve peripheral vascular disease rates as a whole, but it was associated with significantly lower event rates of arterial disease (HR = 0.560, 95%CI 0.327–0.959, p = 0.035) but higher event rates of venous disease (HR = 1.685, 95%CI 1.256–2.262, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Bariatric surgery was associated with significantly reduced long-term occurrence of arterial disease but increased occurrence of venous disease in patients with obesity.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00423-020-02066-9.

Associations between breast cancer survivorship and adverse mental health outcomes: A matched population-based cohort study in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most common cancer diagnosed in women globally, and 5-year net survival probabilities in high-income countries are generally >80%. A cancer diagnosis and treatment are often traumatic events, and many women struggle to cope during this period. Less is known, however, about the long-term mental health impact of the disease, despite many women living several years beyond their breast cancer and mental health being a major source of disability in modern societies. The objective of this study was to quantify the risk of several adverse mental health-related outcomes in women with a history of breast cancer followed in primary care in the United Kingdom National Health Service, compared to similar women who never had cancer.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a matched cohort study using data routinely collected in primary care across the UK to quantify associations between breast cancer history and depression, anxiety, and other mental health-related outcomes. All women with incident breast cancer in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD primary care database between 1988 and 2018 (N = 57,571, mean = 62 ± 14 years) were matched 1:4 to women with no prior cancer (N = 230,067) based on age, primary care practice, and eligibility of the data for linkage to hospital data sources. Cox models were used to estimate associations between breast cancer survivorship and each mental health-related outcome, further adjusting for diabetes, body mass index (BMI), and smoking and drinking status at baseline. Breast cancer survivorship was positively associated with anxiety (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29-1.36; p < 0.001), depression (1.35; 1.32-1.38; p < 0.001), sexual dysfunction (1.27; 1.17-1.38; p < 0.001), and sleep disorder (1.68; 1.63-1.73; p < 0.001), but not with cognitive dysfunction (1.00; 0.97-1.04; p = 0.88). Positive associations were also found for fatigue (HR = 1.28; 1.25-1.31; p < 0.001), pain (1.22; 1.20-1.24; p < 0.001), receipt of opioid analgesics (1.86; 1.83-1.90; p < 0.001), and fatal and nonfatal self-harm (1.15; 0.97-1.36; p = 0.11), but CI was wide, and the relationship was not statistically significant for the latter. HRs for anxiety and depression decreased over time (p-interaction <0.001), but increased risks persisted for 2 and 4 years, respectively, after cancer diagnosis. Increased levels of pain and sleep disorder persisted for 10 years. Younger age was associated with larger HRs for depression, cognitive dysfunction, pain, opioid analgesics use, and sleep disorders (p-interaction <0.001 in each case). Limitations of the study include the potential for residual confounding by lifestyle factors and detection bias due to cancer survivors having greater healthcare contact.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that compared to women with no prior cancer, breast cancer survivors had higher risk of anxiety, depression, sleep problems, sexual dysfunction, fatigue, receipt of opioid analgesics, and pain. Relative risks estimates tended to decrease over time, but anxiety and depression were significantly increased for 2 and 4 years after breast cancer diagnosis, respectively, while associations for fatigue, pain, and sleep disorders were elevated for at least 5-10 years after diagnosis. Early diagnosis and increased awareness among patients, healthcare professionals, and policy makers are likely to be important to mitigate the impacts of these raised risks.

Body mass index and risk of obesity-related conditions in a cohort of 2.9 million people: Evidence from a UK primary care database

Objective

Obesity rates in the United Kingdom are some of the highest in Western Europe, with considerable clinical and societal impacts. Obesity is associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D), osteoarthritis, cardiovascular disease, and increased mortality; however, relatively few studies have examined the occurrence of multiple obesity‐related outcomes in the same patient population. This study was designed to examine the associations between body mass index (BMI) and a broad range of obesity‐related conditions in the same large cohort from a UK‐representative primary care database.

Methods

Demographic data and diagnosis codes were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database in January 2019. Adults registered for ≥ 3 years were grouped by BMI, with BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m² as reference group. Associations between BMI and 12 obesity‐related outcomes were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for age, sex, and smoking.

Results

More than 2.9 million individuals were included in the analyses and were followed up for occurrence of relevant outcomes for a median of 11.4 years during the study period. Generally, there was a stepwise increase in risk of all outcomes with higher BMI. Individuals with BMI 40.0–45.0 kg/m² were at particularly high risk of sleep apnea (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] vs. reference group: 19.8 [18.9–20.8]), T2D (12.4 [12.1–12.7]), heart failure (3.46 [3.35–3.57]), and hypertension (3.21 [3.15–3.26]).

Conclusions

This study substantiates evidence linking higher BMI to higher risk of a range of serious health conditions, in a large, representative UK cohort. By focusing on obesity‐related conditions, this demonstrates the wider clinical impact and the healthcare burden of obesity, and highlights the vital importance of management, treatment approaches, and public health programs to mitigate the impact of this disease.