Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Completeness and quality of low back pain prevalence data in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Introduction

Completeness of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data is acknowledged as a limitation. To date, no study has evaluated this issue for low back pain, a leading contributor to disease burden globally.

Methods

We retrieved reports, in any language, based on citation details from the GBD 2017 study website. Pairs of raters independently extracted the following data: number of prevalence reports tallied across countries, age groups, gender and years from 1987 to 2017. We also considered if studies enrolled a representative sample and/or used an acceptable measure of low back pain.

Results

We retrieved 488 country-level reports that provide prevalence data for 103 of 204 countries (50.5%), with most prevalence reports (61%) being for high-income countries. Only 16 countries (7.8%) have prevalence reports for each of the three decades of the GBD. Most of the reports (79%) did not use an acceptable measure of low back pain when estimating prevalence.

Conclusion

We found incomplete coverage across countries and time, and limitations in the primary prevalence studies included in the GBD 2017 study. This means there is considerable uncertainty about GBD estimates of low back pain prevalence and the disease burden metrics derived from prevalence.

Co-occurrence of Behavioral Risk Factors of Non-communicable Diseases and Social Determinants among Adults in Urban Centers of Southwestern Ethiopia in 2020: A Community-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Non-communicable diseases are priority global health problems. Smoking, harmful alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and an unhealthy diet are four behavioral risk factors of these diseases. Studies in Ethiopia have focused on establishing associations between these factors and incommunicable diseases.

Objective

To assess the prevalence, co-occurrence, and social determinants of behavioral risk factors of non-communicable diseases among adults in urban centers of southwestern Ethiopia.

Methods

This study employed a cross-sectional design. Multistage sampling and the Kish method were used. The WHO's STEPS instrument was used for data collection. Proportions and other descriptive measures are used to describe the data. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression was run to assess associations. Associations between dependent and independent variables were determined using AORs, 95% CIs, and significance level of P=0.05.

Results

A total of 1,191 adults participated in the study for a 93.3% response rate. In sum, 4.8% of participants were smokers and 15.6% indulge in harmful drinking. Prevalence of physical inactivity was 60.45%, and 94.8% consumed insufficient fruit and vegetables. Regarding co-occurrence of these factors, 65.5% of participants had two or more behavioral risk factors. Female sex (AOR 3.1, 95% CI 1.8-5.5), no formal employment (AOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.02-3.7), greater wealth (AOR 2.44, 95% CI 1.1-5.1), not having a friend who does physical exercise (AOR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5-4.7), having friends who do not drink (AOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.09-0.44), and participating in community activities (AOR 2.95, 95% CI 1.4-6.0) were associated with co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors of non-communicable diseases.

Conclusion

The prevalence and co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors of non-communicable diseases in the study area are alarming. Several factors were associated with co-occurrence of these factors. Community-based interventions have to be implemented considering family settings. Special focus has to be given to physical inactivity and fruit and vegetable consumption.

The timeframe for safe resumption of high-level mobility following traumatic brain injury is currently unknown: a systematic review

PURPOSE

To examine the safety of high-level mobility (HLM) prescription in the early sub-acute phase of recovery following moderate-to-extremely severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) with specific focus on provocation of concussion-like symptoms.

DESIGN

Systematic review. PROSPERO ID: CRD42017069369.

MAIN MEASURES

Extracted data included study design, brain injury severity, time to commence HLM, type of HLM, physiological and symptom monitoring, and rate of adverse events.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies were included in the review. Fifteen studies included participants who commenced HLM within 6 weeks of injury, with the earliest time to commencement being 3 days. Overall, adverse events and symptom monitoring were poorly reported. A total of six adverse events were reported across three studies. One of the six adverse events was a concussion-like symptom. No falls were reported. No studies monitored concussion-like symptom provocation in direct relation to HLM.

CONCLUSION

A safe timeframe for return to HLM after moderate-to-extremely severe TBI could not be determined due to insufficient reporting of symptom monitoring and adverse events. Further research into the safety of HLM in the early sub-acute rehabilitative stage after moderate-to-extremely severe TBI is required in order to better understand potential sequelae in this population.IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATIONHigh-level mobility assessment and training is commonly reported in the early sub-acute phase of recovery following moderate-to-extremely severe traumatic brain injury.There is no consensus on a safe timeframe to commence high-level mobility assessment or training after moderate-to-extremely severe traumatic brain injury.High-level mobility assessment and training appears to be safe in the early sub-acute phase following moderate-to-extremely severe traumatic brain injury, however, adverse events and symptoms are poorly reported.Clinicians should continue to proceed with caution when assessing and prescribing high-level mobility for patients with moderate-to-extremely severe traumatic brain injury in the early sub-acute phase of recovery and monitor for risks such as falls and exacerbation of concussion-like symptoms.

Comparison of Salt-Related Knowledge and Behaviors Status of WeChat Users between 2019 and 2020

In order to identify the status of salt-related knowledge and behavior of the residents who were active in WeChat software between 2019 and 2020, 10-day salt-related surveys were conducted in 2019 and 2020 based on the WeChat public platform of China Healthy Lifestyle for All Campaign. Distribution and scores of salt-related knowledge, salt reduction behavior and high-salt intake behavior between 2019 and 2020 were compared. Data of 2109 participants in 2019 and 12,732 participants in 2020 were left for analysis. Overall, 88.2% of participants in 2019 had a willingness to reduce the amount of cooking salt in their households, significantly lower than 90.2% in 2020 (p-value < 0.05). In 2019 and 2020, over 80% of the participants knew fine dried noodles contain salt, but less than 30% knew ice cream contains salt. Over 78% of participants chose 5 g or 6 g for the maximum daily salt intake of healthy adults, and about 98% of participants knew that excessive salt intake would increase the risk of hypertension in both years. The percentage of participants who used salt measuring spoons asked restaurants to use less salt, read the sodium content on the nutrition facts table, chose foods with low sodium content and regularly used low-sodium salt, were 36.1%, 45.0%, 44.1%, 40.3% and 35.8% in 2019, and the percentage increased significantly to 46.4%, 49.2%, 50.8%, 47.1% and 43.4% in 2020 (all p-value < 0.05). The percentage of people regularly eating pickled mustard tubers, salted vegetables and sauce foods or using high-salt condiments also increased from 2019 to 2020. The median of salt-related knowledge scores, salt reduction behavior scores and high-salt intake behavior scores were 11, 2, 5 points in 2019, and 10, 3, 5 points in 2020, respectively. Compared to 2019, the salt-related knowledge score was relatively lower, while the salt reduction behavior score and high-salt intake behavior score were relatively higher in 2020. Besides, the score of salt-related knowledge and behaviors differed in different gender, age and hypertension groups. The COVID-19 epidemic may have influenced the salt-related knowledge and behaviors status of WeChat users in China. Promotion and education of salt-related knowledge and online behavior intervention are still needed, particularly for male and hypertension patients in the future.

Alkaloids in Contemporary Drug Discovery to Meet Global Disease Needs

An overview is presented of the well-established role of alkaloids in drug discovery, the application of more sustainable chemicals, and biological approaches, and the implementation of information systems to address the current challenges faced in meeting global disease needs. The necessity for a new international paradigm for natural product discovery and development for the treatment of multidrug resistant organisms, and rare and neglected tropical diseases in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Quintuple Helix is discussed.

Disease Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease Due to Hypertension From 1990 to 2019: A Global Analysis

Background: Although it is widely known that hypertension is an important cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), little detailed quantitative research exists on the burden of CKD due to hypertension.

Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate the global disease burden of CKD due to hypertension and to evaluate the association between the socioeconomic factors and country-level disease burden of CKD due to hypertension.

Methods: We extracted the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) numbers, rates, and age-standardized rates of CKD due to hypertension from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database to investigate the time trends of the burden of CKD due to hypertension from 1990 to 2019. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate the correlations between the age-standardized DALY rate and socioeconomic factors and other related factors obtained from open databases.

Results: Globally, from 1990 to 2019, DALY numbers caused by CKD due to hypertension increased by 125.2% [95% confidential interval (CI), 124.6 to 125.7%]. The DALY rate increased by 55.7% (55.3 to 56.0%) to 128.8 (110.9 to 149.2) per 100,000 population, while the age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 population increased by 10.9% (10.3 to 11.5%). In general, males and elderly people tended to have a higher disease burden. The distribution disparity in the burden of CKD due to hypertension varies greatly among countries. In the stepwise multiple linear regression model, inequality-adjusted human development index (IHDI) [β = −161.1 (95% CI −238.1 to −84.2), P < 0.001] and number of physicians per 10,000 people [β = −2.91 (95% CI −4.02 to −1.80), P < 0.001] were significantly negatively correlated with age-standardized DALY rate when adjusted for IHDI, health access and quality (HAQ), number of physicians per 10,000 people, and population with at least some secondary education.

Conclusion: Improving the average achievements and equality of distribution in health, education, and income, as well as increasing the number of physicians per 10,000 people could help to reduce the burden of CKD due to hypertension. These findings may provide relevant information toward efforts to optimize health policies aimed at reducing the burden of CKD due to hypertension.

Symptoms of mental health problems among Italian adolescents in 2017-2018 school year: a multicenter cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Identifying individual and contextual factors that influence adolescent well-being is a research priority. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of symptoms of mental health problems and some related factors in Italian adolescents in 2017-2018.

METHODS

The present study was a cross-sectional survey among 3002 students aged 15-16 years who resided in two Italian provinces, in North and South Italy. Symptoms of mental health problems were assessed using the SDQ and CES-DC, and students' risk-taking behaviors and school climate perception were assessed. All information was collected anonymously. Logistic regression models were used to assess the associations of tobacco and alcohol use, screen time, bullying, and school climate with symptoms of mental health problems.

RESULTS

One student out of five reported symptoms of mental health problems, with a more than double proportion among girls than boys (28.7% vs 10.4% with depressive symptoms, respectively). Thirty percent and 40% of students smoked tobacco or drank alcoholic beverages at least once in the past month, and more than 40% reported being victims or authors of bullying in the past 6 months. Smoking behavior, alcohol consumption, screen time, bullying, and negative school climate had 1.2- to 3.3-fold increased odds of symptoms of mental health problems without substantial differences between sexes and geographical areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco and alcohol use, screen time, bullying, and school climate were independently associated with symptoms of mental health problems in a large sample of 15-16-year-old Italian adolescents without substantial gender and geographical differences.

Daily Headache in Chronic Migraine Is a Predictive Factor of Response in Patients Who Had Completed Three Sessions of OnabotulinumtoxinA

OnabotulinumtoxinA is one of the main preventive treatments for chronic migraine. Despite that up to one third of patients with chronic migraine suffer from daily headache, these individuals have hardly been studied. We conducted a prospective cohort study, including patients with chronic migraine and treated with OnabotulinumtoxinA according to the PREEMPT paradigm. The primary endpoint was to assess whether patients with chronic migraine and daily headache had a different response after three sessions of OnabotulinutoxinA than patients without daily headache. The secondary endpoint was to analyse the presence of predictive factors that could be associated with a higher response to OnabotulinumtoxinA. Patients with daily headache had a reduction of 14.9 (SD: 9.7) headache days per month, patients with 22–29 headache days a reduction of 10.6 (SD: 9.9) days, and patients with 15–21 headache days a reduction of 8.6 (SD: 7.1) days (p < 0.001). In the univariate regression analysis, a higher number of headache days per month at baseline was associated with higher odds of reduction in the number of headache days per month after OnabotulinumtoxinaA treatment (OR: 0.474, 95% CI: 0.278–0.670, p < 0.001). This association was maintained in the multivariate regression analysis (OR: 0.540, 95% CI: 0.333–0.746, p < 0.001). In our sample, daily headache was not associated with a worse response to OnabotulinumtoxinA treatment. A higher frequency of headache at baseline was a predictor of better response to OnabotulinumtoxinA treatment.

Comprehensive Analysis of Peripheral Exosomal circRNAs in Large Artery Atherosclerotic Stroke

Exosomes are crucial vehicles in intercellular communication. Circular RNAs (circRNAs), novel endogenous noncoding RNAs, play diverse roles in ischemic stroke. Recently, the abundance and stability of circRNAs in exosomes have been identified. However, a comprehensive analysis of exosomal circRNAs in large artery atherosclerotic (LAA) stroke has not yet been reported. We performed RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) to comprehensively identify differentially expressed (DE) exosomal circRNAs in five paired LAA and normal controls. Further, quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) was used to verify the RNA-Seq results in a cohort of stroke patients (32 versus 32). RNA-Seq identified a total of 462 circRNAs in peripheral exosomes; there were 25 DE circRNAs among them. Additionally, circRNA competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network and translatable analysis revealed the potential functions of the exosomal circRNAs in LAA progression. Two ceRNA pathways involving 5 circRNAs, 2 miRNAs, and 3 mRNAs were confirmed by qRT-PCR. In the validation cohort, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis identified two circRNAs as possible novel biomarkers, and a logistic model combining two and four circRNAs increased the area under the curve compared with the individual circRNAs. Here, we show for the first time the comprehensive expression of exosomal circRNAs, which displayed the potential diagnostic and biological function in LAA stroke.

Secular Trend, Seasonal Variation, Epidemiological Pattern, and Outcome of Traumatic Head Injuries Due to Road Traffic Accidents in Aseer, Saudi Arabia

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are a leading cause of traumatic head injury (THI) and are regarded as a public health problem in Saudi Arabia. This hospital-based retrospective study aims to provide data on the frequency, type, and distribution of RTA-related THIs over the past decade; demonstrate their time trend and seasonality; and decipher age and sex differences in RTA-related THIs and their outcome. The results showed a decline in the number of RTA-related THIs between 2010 and 2019. The patients had a mean age of 26.16 ± 16.27 years, and the male-to-female ratio was 10.8:1. Head injury with multiple lesions was the most common diagnosis, followed by cerebral contusion and skull fracture (32.1%, 12.9%, and 11.2%, respectively). Subdural hematoma (SDH) and skull fracture were significantly more common in patients aged ≥60 years (standard residual > 1.96), and significantly less common in those aged ≤17 years (standard residual < 1.96), compared to other age groups. Males experienced significantly more SDHs than females (standard residual = −2.8, p = 0.029). The length of hospital stay was positively correlated with age (Spearman’s rho = 0.057, p = 0.046). No seasonal variation was found.

If headache has any association with hypertension, it is negative. Evidence from a population-based study in Nepal

BACKGROUND

Hypertension and headache disorders are major contributors to public ill health, linked by a long-standing but questionable belief that hypertension is a conspicuous cause of headache. In Nepal, where hypertension is common and often untreated, we assessed the substance of this belief, hypothesising that, should hypertension be a significant cause of headache, a clear positive association between these disorders would exist.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional, nationwide study, trained health workers conducted face-to-face structured interviews, during unannounced home visits, with a representative sample of the Nepalese adult population (18-65 years). They applied standard diagnostic criteria for headache disorders and measured blood pressure digitally. Hypertension was defined as systolic pressure ≥140 and/or diastolic ≥90 mm Hg.

RESULTS

Of 2,100 participants (59.0% female, mean age 36.4 ± 12.8 years), 317 (15.1%) had hypertension (41.0% female) and 1,794 (85.4%) had headache (61.6% female; 728 migraine, 863 tension-type headache, 161 headache on ≥15 days/month [mutually exclusive diagnoses]; 42 unclassified headaches).All headache collectively was less prevalent among hypertension cases (78.9%) than non-cases (86.6%; p = 0.001). A negative association between hypertension and all headache was demonstrated in bivariate analysis (odds ratio: 0.6 [95% Confidence interval: 0.4-0.8]; p < 0.001), but did not maintain significance in multivariate regression analysis (adjusted odds ratio: 0.8 [95% Confidence interval: 0.5-1.1]; p = 0.09). The findings were reflected, without significance, in each headache type.

CONCLUSIONS

If any association exists between hypertension and headache disorders, it is negative. From the public-health perspective, headache disorders and hypertension are unrelated entities: they need distinct policies and programs for prevention, control and management.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13-1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11-7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5-28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4-39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98-1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16-8·20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3-21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.

INTERPRETATION

In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 2009 to 2019: an observational study based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

PURPOSE

The incidence and mortality rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has changed in recent years. Our goal is to determine the epidemiological pattern of NPC to help policymakers allocate limited medical resources.

METHODS

Detailed information about NPC from 2009 to 2019 was collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) and corresponding estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess NPC's incidence and mortality trends.

RESULTS

Globally, there was a consistent increase in the NPC incidence cases from 2009 to 2019 (from 121.65 × 10³ cases in 2009 to 176.50 × 10³ cases in 2019, increasing by 45.09%). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of NPC increased from 1.81 in 2009 to 2.12 in 2019 (EAPC = 1.59, 95% CI 1.36-1.81). On the contrary, the mortality of NPC showed a downward trend (ASDR: 0.93 in 2009 and 0.86 in 2019; EAPC = - 0.63, 95% CI - 0.78 to - 0.48), and it was negatively correlated with the social demographic index (SDI) in most regions. Both incidence and mortality rates of high-incidence territories tended to be stable or decline. Males had significantly higher incidence and mortality of NPC than females. The number of patients with onset age greater than 50 years old accounted for the highest proportion. We found that smoking, occupational exposure to formaldehyde, and alcohol use were the main risk factors for NPC-related mortality.

CONCLUSION

Globally, the incidence rate of NPC has been slightly increasing, while the mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) have been decreasing. NPC burden in high-middle and middle SDI areas was the heaviest. The current prevention strategy should be repositioned, and some countries should formulate more targeted approaches to reduce the current burden of NPC.

Temporal Trend of Urolithiasis Incidence in China: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Purpose

Urolithiasis is one of the commonest disease of the urinary system. This study aimed to assess the long-term urolithiasis incidence trends in China between 1990 and 2019.

Patients and Methods

The incidence data of urolithiasis were extracted from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and an age–period–cohort framework was used to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects.

Results

We found that the net drift was −2.72% (95% CI: −2.84% to −2.60%) per year for men and −2.14% (95% CI: −2.24% to −2.05%) per year for women, and except men in age group 0–4, the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups (P<0.05 for all) in both sexes during the period of 1990 to 2019. In the same birth cohort, the risk of incidence from urolithiasis rose first and then decreased with age for both sexes after controlling for period deviations, and in addition, after 20 years old, the risk of incidence of urolithiasis in men was higher than that in women (significantly with P<0.05). In general, the estimated period and cohort relative risks were found in similar downward patterns for both sexes.

Conclusion

In the past 30 years, the age-standard incidence of urolithiasis in both sex of Chinese people has decreased, but the crude incidence of urolithiasis in Chinese women has increased. Considering the aging of population structure in China, the overall number of female urolithiasis patients may increase, contributes to higher crude incidence rate. The problem of urolithiasis in Chinese women needs to be paid more attention.

Global reporting of pulmonary embolism-related deaths in the World Health Organization mortality database: Vital registration data from 123 countries

Introduction

Pulmonary embolism (PE) has not been accounted for as a cause of death contributing to cause‐specific mortality in global reports.

Methods

We analyzed global PE‐related mortality by focusing on the latest year available for each member state in the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database, which provides age‐sex–specific aggregated mortality data transmitted by national authorities for each underlying cause of death. PE‐related deaths were defined by International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes for acute PE or nonfatal manifestations of venous thromboembolism (VTE). The 2001 WHO standard population served for standardization.

Results

We obtained data from 123 countries covering a total population of 2 602 561 422. Overall, 50 (40.6%) were European, 39 (31.7%) American, 13 (10.6%) Eastern Mediterranean, 13 (10.6%) Western Pacific, 3 (2.4%) Southeast Asian, and 2 (1.6%) African. Of 116 countries classifiable according to population income, 57 (49.1%) were high income, 42 (36.2%) upper‐middle income, 14 (12.1%) lower‐middle income, and 3 (2.6%) low income. A total of 18 726 382 deaths were recorded, of which 86 930 (0.46%) were attributed to PE. PE‐related mortality rate increased with age in most countries. The reporting of PE‐related deaths was heterogeneous, with an age‐standardized mortality rate ranging from 0 to 24 deaths per 100 000 population‐years. Income status only partially explained this heterogeneity.

Conclusions

Reporting of PE‐related mortality in official national vital registration was characterized by extreme heterogeneity across countries. These findings mandate enhanced efforts toward systematic and uniform coverage of PE‐related mortality and provides a case for full recognition of PE and VTE as a primary cause of death.

The Probable Association between Chronic Toxoplasma gondii Infection and Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Case-Control Study

Purpose

The probable association between Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) infection and diabetes mellitus (DM) is still controversial, and there are several studies with conflicting results. Thus, this study was performed to assess the possible association between chronic T. gondii infection and type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and T2DM.

Methods

In this case-control study, a total of 105 diabetic subjects including 36 patients with T1DM and 69 patients with T2DM were recruited. In addition, 150 nondiabetic subjects were enrolled as controls. Each case group had its own control group. Each participant completed a structured questionnaire obtaining demographic information. Serum samples were examined for T. gondii-specific IgG antibody using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method.

Results

Analysis revealed that 69.4% and 34.0% of patients with T1DM and control subjects were serologically positive for T. gondii, respectively (odds ratio (OR): 4.41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.75–11.06; P=0.001). Moreover, 72.5% of T2DM patients and 29.0% of healthy individuals were seropositive for T. gondii (OR: 6.44; 95% CI: 3.25–12.74; P < 0.001). Among risk factors, only contact with cats was significantly associated with IgG seroprevalence in both T2DM patients (P < 0.001) and control subjects (P=0.045).

Conclusion

Although the results showed that chronic T. gondii infection is significantly associated with T1DM and T2DM, there remain many questions regarding the exact mechanisms of T. gondii in the pathogenesis of DM.

Acute Treatments for Episodic Migraine in Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Migraine is common and can be associated with significant morbidity, and several treatment options exist for acute therapy.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the benefits and harms associated with acute treatments for episodic migraine in adults.

DATA SOURCES

Multiple databases from database inception to February 24, 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized clinical trials and systematic reviews that assessed effectiveness or harms of acute therapy for migraine attacks.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Independent reviewers selected studies and extracted data. Meta-analysis was performed with the DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model with Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman variance correction or by using a fixed-effect model based on the Mantel-Haenszel method if the number of studies was small.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcomes included pain freedom, pain relief, sustained pain freedom, sustained pain relief, and adverse events. The strength of evidence (SOE) was graded with the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Methods Guide for Effectiveness and Comparative Effectiveness Reviews.

FINDINGS

Evidence on triptans and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs was summarized from 15 systematic reviews. For other interventions, 115 randomized clinical trials with 28 803 patients were included. Compared with placebo, triptans and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs used individually were significantly associated with reduced pain at 2 hours and 1 day (moderate to high SOE) and increased risk of mild and transient adverse events. Compared with placebo, calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor antagonists (low to high SOE), lasmiditan (5-HT1F receptor agonist; high SOE), dihydroergotamine (moderate to high SOE), ergotamine plus caffeine (moderate SOE), acetaminophen (moderate SOE), antiemetics (low SOE), butorphanol (low SOE), and tramadol in combination with acetaminophen (low SOE) were significantly associated with pain reduction and increase in mild adverse events. The findings for opioids were based on low or insufficient SOE. Several nonpharmacologic treatments were significantly associated with improved pain, including remote electrical neuromodulation (moderate SOE), transcranial magnetic stimulation (low SOE), external trigeminal nerve stimulation (low SOE), and noninvasive vagus nerve stimulation (moderate SOE). No significant difference in adverse events was found between nonpharmacologic treatments and sham.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

There are several acute treatments for migraine, with varying strength of supporting evidence. Use of triptans, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, acetaminophen, dihydroergotamine, calcitonin gene-related peptide antagonists, lasmiditan, and some nonpharmacologic treatments was associated with improved pain and function. The evidence for many other interventions, including opioids, was limited.

Transcriptomic and Genetic Associations between Alzheimer's Disease, Parkinson's Disease, and Cancer

Simple Summary

Epidemiological studies have identified a link between neurodegenerative disorders and a reduced risk of overall cancer. Increases and decreases in the risk of site-specific cancers have also been reported. However, it is still unknown whether these associations arise due to shared genetic and molecular factors or are explained by other phenomena (e.g., biases in epidemiological studies or the use of medication). In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential molecular, genetic, and pharmacological links between Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases and a large panel of 22 cancer types. To examine the overlapping involvement of genes and pathways, we obtained differential gene expression profiles through meta-analyses of post-mortem brain tissues from Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease patients, primary tumors, and tissue-matched controls, and compared them. Genetic similarities were assessed through network-based methods and the computation of genetic correlations. Finally, the potential impact of drugs indicated for each disorder in the identified associations was evaluated using transcriptomic methods. Our research extends previous work in the field by identifying new significant patterns of transcriptomic associations (direct and inverse) between Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, and different site-specific cancers. The results reveal significant genetic correlations between Parkinson’s disease, prostate cancer, and melanoma. In addition, to our knowledge, this is the first time that the role of drugs indicated for the treatment of both sets of disorders has been investigated in the context of their comorbid associations using transcriptomic methods.

Abstract

Alzheimer’s (AD) and Parkinson’s diseases (PD) are the two most prevalent neurodegenerative disorders in human populations. Epidemiological studies have shown that patients suffering from either condition present a reduced overall risk of cancer than controls (i.e., inverse comorbidity), suggesting that neurodegeneration provides a protective effect against cancer. Reduced risks of several site-specific tumors, including colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers, have also been observed in AD and PD. By contrast, an increased risk of melanoma has been described in PD patients (i.e., direct comorbidity). Therefore, a fundamental question to address is whether these associations are due to shared genetic and molecular factors or are explained by other phenomena, such as flaws in epidemiological studies, exposure to shared risk factors, or the effect of medications. To this end, we first evaluated the transcriptomes of AD and PD post-mortem brain tissues derived from the hippocampus and the substantia nigra and analyzed their similarities to those of a large panel of 22 site-specific cancers, which were obtained through differential gene expression meta-analyses of array-based studies available in public repositories. Genes and pathways that were deregulated in both disorders in each analyzed pair were examined. Second, we assessed potential genetic links between AD, PD, and the selected cancers by establishing interactome-based overlaps of genes previously linked to each disorder. Then, their genetic correlations were computed using cross-trait LD score regression and GWAS summary statistics data. Finally, the potential role of medications in the reported comorbidities was assessed by comparing disease-specific differential gene expression profiles to an extensive collection of differential gene expression signatures generated by exposing cell lines to drugs indicated for AD, PD, and cancer treatment (LINCS L1000). We identified significant inverse associations of transcriptomic deregulation between AD hippocampal tissues and breast, lung, liver, and prostate cancers, and between PD substantia nigra tissues and breast, lung, and prostate cancers. Moreover, significant direct (same direction) associations of deregulation were observed between AD and PD and brain and thyroid cancers, as well as between PD and kidney cancer. Several biological processes, including the immune system, oxidative phosphorylation, PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling, and the cell cycle, were found to be deregulated in both cancer and neurodegenerative disorders. Significant genetic correlations were found between PD and melanoma and prostate cancers. Several drugs indicated for the treatment of neurodegenerative disorders and cancer, such as galantamine, selegiline, exemestane, and estradiol, were identified as potential modulators of the comorbidities observed between neurodegeneration and cancer.

Primary prescription adherence for obstructive lung disease in a primary care population

Background

The objective of this study was to determine primary prescription adherence for obstructive lung diseases (e.g., asthma, COPD) in an adult primary care patient population over a 3-year period.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of electronic medical record and administrative data was performed to determine primary adherence, defined as dispensation of a new prescription within 90 days of the date the prescription was written. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test predictors of prescription primary adherence.

Results

Of 13,220 prescriptions for obstructive airway disease, 75.9% (N = 10,038) were filled. In multivariate analysis, depression, certain age groups (18–44 years), higher income quartile were associated with reduced prescription adherence. However, 1–2 ER visits in the previous year (compared to no ER visits), number of ambulatory visits in the previous year, and number of hospitalizations in the previous year, did not increase the likelihood of prescription adherence.

Interpretation

This study provides important insights about factors associated with prescription nonadherence and is the first study examining primary medication adherence with medications for obstructive lung disease in adults, providing indications of prescription nonadherence patterns among a broad population.

The control of soil-transmitted helminthiases in the Philippines: the story continues

Background

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections have long been an important public health concern in the Philippines. In this review, we describe the current status of STH infections there and highlight the control efforts undertaken to reduce STH burden.

Main text

A nationwide STH mass drug administration (MDA) programme was started in 2006 but the overall STH prevalence remains stubbornly high across the Philippines, ranging from 24.9% to 97.4%. The continued increase in the prevalence may have been due to the challenges related to MDA implementation which include the lack of people’s awareness about the importance of regular treatment, misconceptions about the MDA strategy, lack of confidence on the drugs used, fear of adverse events and general distrust of government programs. There are existing water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) programmes implemented in communities [e.g., Community-Led Total Sanitation (CLTS) program and providing toilet bowls and provision of subsidy for latrine construction] and schools [e.g., WASH in School (WINS) program], but sustained implementation is required to achieve expected outcomes. Although WASH in general is being taught in schools, integration of STH as a disease and community problem in the current public elementary school curriculum is still inadequate. The Integrated Helminth Control Program (IHCP) currently implemented in the country, which is focused on improved sanitation and personal hygiene, health education and preventive chemotherapy, will require continuous appraisal. The sustainability of this programme still continues to be a challenge.

Conclusions

Despite the major efforts to control STH infections for almost two decades in the Philippines, persistently high STH prevalence has been reported across the country, which is likely due to suboptimal MDA coverage and limitations in WASH and health education programs. Sustainable delivery of integrated control approaches will continue to play a pivotal role in the control and elimination of STH in the Philippines.

Graphic abstract

Cost of illness for severe and non-severe diarrhea borne by households in a low-income urban community of Bangladesh: A cross-sectional study

The illness cost borne by households, known as out-of-pocket expenditure, was 74% of the total health expenditure in Bangladesh in 2017. Calculating economic burden of diarrhea of low-income urban community is important to identify potential cost savings strategies and prioritize policy decision to improve the quality of life of this population. This study aimed to estimate cost of illness and monthly percent expenditure borne by households due diarrhea in a low-income urban settlement of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We conducted this study in East Arichpur area of Tongi township in Dhaka, Bangladesh from September 17, 2015 to July 26, 2016. We used the World Health Organization (WHO) definition of three or more loose stool in 24 hours to enroll patients and enrolled 106 severe patients and 158 non-severe patients from Tongi General Hospital, local pharmacy and study community. The team enrolled patients between the first to third day of the illness (≤ 72 hours) and continued daily follow-up by phone until recovery. We considered direct and indirect costs to calculate cost-per-episode. We applied the published incidence rate to estimate the annual cost of diarrhea. The estimated average cost of illness for patient with severe diarrhea was US$ 27.39 [95% CI: 24.55, 30.23] (2,147 BDT), 17% of the average monthly income of the households. The average cost of illness for patient with non-severe diarrhea was US$ 6.36 [95% CI: 5.19, 7.55] (499 BDT), 4% of the average monthly income of households. A single diarrheal episode substantially affects financial condition of low-income urban community residents: a severe episode can cost almost equivalent to 4.35 days (17%) and a non-severe episode can cost almost equivalent to 1 day (4%) of household’s income. Preventing diarrhea preserves health and supports financial livelihoods.

The illness cost borne by households, known as out-of-pocket expenditure was 74% of the total health expenditure in Bangladesh in 2017. Most of the studies in Bangladesh that estimated the cost of diarrheal illness collected data from hospital patients and mostly targeted under-five children. Information on economic burden of diarrhea borne by households of low-income urban communities who commonly had ≤ 2 US$ dollar income per capita per day still remained unknown. We conducted this study in East Arichpur area of Tongi township in Dhaka, Bangladesh from September 2015 to July 2016 to estimate cost of illness and monthly percent expenditure borne by households due diarrhea in a low-income urban settlement of Dhaka, Bangladesh. The estimated average cost of illness for patient with severe diarrhea was US$ 27.39 (2,147 BDT) and non-severe diarrhea was US$ 6.36 (499 BDT). A single diarrheal episode substantially affects financial capability of the low-income urban community: a severe episode can cost 4.35 days (17%) and a non-severe episode can cost 1 day (4%) of income of a households. Preventing diarrhea preserves health and supports financial livelihoods.

Potentially Inappropriate Medication and Associated Factors Among Older Patients with Chronic Coronary Syndrome at Hospital Discharge in Beijing, China

Purpose

Medication therapy is crucial in the management of chronic coronary syndrome (CCS). The use of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) contributes to poor outcomes in older patients, making it a major public health concern. However, few studies are available on PIMs use in older Chinese CCS patients. To investigate the frequency of prescribed PIMs at discharge and explore risk factors in older adults with CCS.

Patients and Methods

The cross-sectional study was conducted in a tertiary hospital in China over three months, from 1st October to 31st December, 2019. CCS patients aged over 60 years who were discharged alive were recruited. Information on demographics and medications at discharge was collected. Clinical data including diagnoses, frailty status, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class and age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) were evaluated in each patient. PIMs were identified using the 2019 Beers criteria. Binary logistic regression was performed to recognize variables related to PIMs.

Results

A total of 447 eligible patients with 2947 medications were included. The prevalence of PIMs use was 38%. Medications to be avoided, to be used with caution, and with drug–drug interactions were 38.4%, 48.9% and 12.7% of the PIMs, respectively. Medications with drug–disease/syndrome interactions and those adjusted for kidney function were not identified. The common PIMs were diuretics (37.1%), benzodiazepines and benzodiazepine receptor agonist hypnotics (15.2%), glimepiride (13.1%), and co-prescription of potassium-sparing diuretics and renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors (9.7%). Individuals with frailty syndrome, polypharmacy, multiple comorbidities, atrial fibrillation, psychiatric disorders and greater NYHA class severity were more likely to receive PIMs.

Conclusion

Prescription of PIMs was a common burden in older adults. A CCS multidisciplinary team is needed to control PIMs, especially in vulnerable older patients.

SPINE20 A global advocacy group promoting evidence-based spine care of value

PURPOSE

The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Studies have estimated that low back pain is one of the costliest ailments worldwide. Subsequent to GBD publications, leadership of the four largest global spine societies agreed to form SPINE20. This article introduces the concept of SPINE20, the recommendations, and the future of this global advocacy group linked to G20 annual summits.

METHODS

The founders of SPINE20 advocacy group coordinated with G20 Saudi Arabia to conduct the SPINE20 summit in 2020. The summit was intended to promote evidence-based recommendations to use the most reliable information from high-level research. Eight areas of importance to mitigate spine disorders were identified through a voting process of the participating societies. Twelve recommendations were discussed and vetted.

RESULTS

The areas of immediate concern were "Aging spine," "Future of spine care," "Spinal cord injuries," "Children and adolescent spine," "Spine-related disability," "Spine Educational Standards," "Patient safety," and "Burden on economy." Twelve recommendations were created and endorsed by 31/33 spine societies and 2 journals globally during a vetted process through the SPINE20.org website and during the virtual inaugural meeting November 10-11, 2020 held from the G20 platform.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first time that international spine societies have joined to support actions to mitigate the burden of spine disorders across the globe. SPINE20 seeks to change awareness and treatment of spine pain by supporting local projects that implement value-based practices with healthcare policies that are culturally sensitive based on scientific evidence.

The global, regional, and national burden of cancer among adolescents and young adults in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Accurate appraisal of burden of adolescents and young adults (AYAs) cancers is crucial to informing resource allocation and policy making. We report on the latest estimates of burden of AYA cancers in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 in association with socio-demographic index (SDI).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 were used to analyse incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to AYA cancers at global, regional, and national levels by sex. Association between AYA cancer burden and SDI were investigated. Burdens of AYA cancers were contextualized in comparison with childhood and older adult cancers. All estimates are reported as counts and age-standardized rates per 100,000 person-years.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 1.2 million incident cases, 0.4 million deaths, and 23.5 million DALYs due to AYA cancers globally. The highest age-standardized incidence rate occurred in Western Europe (75.3 [Females] and 67.4 [Males] per 100,000 person-years). Age-standardized death (23.2 [Females] and 13.9 [Males] per 100,000 person-years) and DALY (1328.3 [Females] and 1059.2 [Males] per 100,000 person-years) rates were highest in Oceania. Increasing SDI was associated with a higher age-standardized incidence rate. An inverted U-shaped association was identified between SDI and death and DALY rates. AYA cancers collectively is the second leading cause of non-communicable diseases-related deaths globally in 2019. DALYs of AYA cancers ranked the second globally and the first in low and low-middle SDI locations when compared with that of childhood and older adult cancers.

CONCLUSION

The global burden of AYA cancers is substantial and disproportionally affect populations in limited-resource settings. Capacity building for AYA cancers is essential in promoting equity and population health worldwide.

Association of Diet Quality With Prevalence of Clonal Hematopoiesis and Adverse Cardiovascular Events

Importance

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the expansion of somatic leukemogenic variations in hematopoietic stem cells, has been associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Because the inherited risk of developing CHIP is low, lifestyle elements such as dietary factors may be associated with the development and outcomes of CHIP.

Objective

To examine whether there is an association between diet quality and the prevalence of CHIP.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used data from participants in the UK Biobank, an ongoing population-based study in the United Kingdom that examines whole-exome sequencing data and survey-based information on health-associated behaviors. Individuals from the UK Biobank were recruited between 2006 and 2010 and followed up prospectively with linkage to health data records through May 2020. The present study included 44 111 participants in the UK Biobank who were age 40 to 70 years, had data available from whole-exome sequencing of blood DNA, and were free of coronary artery disease (CAD) or hematologic cancer at baseline.

Exposures

Diet quality was categorized as unhealthy if the intake of healthy elements (fruits and vegetables) was lower than the median of all survey responses, and the intake of unhealthy elements (red meat, processed food, and added salt) was higher than the median. Diets were classified as healthy if the intake of healthy elements was higher than the median, and the intake of unhealthy elements was lower than the median. The presence of CHIP was detected by data from whole-exome sequencing of blood DNA.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was CHIP prevalence. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between diet quality and the presence of CHIP. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of incident events (acute coronary syndromes, coronary revascularization, or death) in each diet quality category stratified by the presence of CHIP.

Results

Among 44 111 participants (mean [SD] age at time of blood sample collection, 56.3 [8.0] years; 24 507 women [55.6%]), 2271 individuals (5.1%) had an unhealthy diet, 38 552 individuals (87.4%) had an intermediate diet, and 3288 individuals (7.5%) had a healthy diet. A total of 2507 individuals (5.7%) had CHIP, and the prevalence of CHIP decreased as diet quality improved from unhealthy (162 of 2271 participants [7.1%]) to intermediate (2177 of 38 552 participants [5.7%]) to healthy (168 of 3288 participants [5.1%]; P = .003 for trend). Compared with individuals without CHIP who had an intermediate diet, the rates of incident cardiovascular events progressively decreased among those with CHIP who had an unhealthy diet (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52; 95% CI, 1.04-2.22) and those with CHIP who had a healthy diet (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.62-1.58) over a median of 10.0 years (interquartile range, 9.6-10.4 years) of follow-up.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study suggests that an unhealthy diet quality may be associated with a higher prevalence of CHIP and higher rates of adverse cardiovascular events and death independent of CHIP status.

Patient-Reported OUtcome measures in key African languages to promote Diversity in research and clinical practice (PROUD)-protocol for a systematic review of measurement properties

Introduction

Sub-Saharan Africa is a subcontinent with a proud cultural richness and diversity, yet inexplicably also a region with severe health care challenges and inequity. To challenge this health equity gap and reduce the burden of disease, the patient’s voice in monitoring and evaluation of health and health care interventions is paramount. The aim of this two-phased review is to map the availability of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in a selection of non-English, African Languages, and systematically evaluate the measurement properties of the PROMs that were identified.

Methods

This systematic review will be conducted in two phases. In phase 1, we will scope the literature for patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), either developed from scratch or through translation and validation in a sub-Saharan African country and a selection of non-English, African languages (n = 31; spoken in > 10 million people and/or a national language). The availability of PROMs will be mapped against the previously reported burden of disease in the respective countries included. Subsequently, in phase 2, we systematically evaluate the measurement properties of these PROMs using the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) methodology for systematic reviews on PROMs. To ensure rigour, secondary searches will be developed to specifically locate articles that report on the measurement properties of the PROMs identified during phase 1. The evidence will be graded using the modified GRADE approach.

Discussion

This review will provide a comprehensive overview and quality appraisal of PROMs developed in non-English, African languages. Consequently, this review when concluded may be an important first step in promoting access to these PROMs for use in clinical practice and research, as well as facilitate identification and prioritization of key knowledge gaps.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-021-05328-z.

What Works in Community-Led Suicide Prevention: Perspectives of Wesley LifeForce Network Coordinators

Community coalitions have been recognised as an important vehicle to advance health promotion and address relevant local health issues in communities, yet little is known about their effectiveness in the field of suicide prevention. The Wesley Lifeforce Suicide Prevention Networks program consists of a national cohort of local community-led suicide prevention networks. This study drew on a nationally representative survey and the perspectives of coordinators of these networks to identify the key factors underpinning positive perceived network member and community outcomes. Survey data were analysed through descriptive statistics and linear regression analyses. Networks typically reported better outcomes for network members and communities if they had been in existence for longer, had a focus on the general community, and had conducted more network meetings and internal processes, as well as specific community-focused activities. Study findings strengthen the evidence base for effective network operations and lend further support to the merit of community coalitions in the field of suicide prevention, with implications for similar initiatives, policymakers, and wider sector stakeholders seeking to address suicide prevention issues at a local community level.

The effect of herbs and spices on risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases: a review of human clinical trials

Herbs and spices are recommended to increase flavor and displace salt in the diet. Accumulating evidence suggests herbs and spices may improve risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases. In this narrative review, an overview of evidence from human clinical trials examining the effect of herbs and spices on risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases is provided. Human clinical trials examining supplemental doses of individual spices and herbs, or the active compounds, have yielded some evidence showing improvements to lipid and lipoprotein levels, glycemic control, blood pressure, adiposity, inflammation, and oxidative stress. However, cautious interpretation is warranted because of methodological limitations and substantial between-trial heterogeneity in the findings. Evidence from acute studies suggests intake of mixed herbs and spices as part of a high-saturated fat, high-carbohydrate meal reduces postprandial metabolic impairments, including lipemia, oxidative stress, and endothelial dysfunction. Limited studies have examined the postprandial metabolic effects of incorporating mixed herbs and spices into healthy meals, and, to our knowledge, no trials have assessed the effect of longer-term intake of mixed herbs and spices on risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases. To inform evidence-based guidelines for intake of herbs and spices for general health and cardiometabolic disease risk reduction, rigorously conducted randomized controlled trials are needed, particularly trials examining herb and spice doses that can be incorporated into healthy dietary patterns.

Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

BACKGROUND

Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments.

METHODS

We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings.

RESULTS

The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.

Meta-Analysis of Adipose Tissue Derived Cell-Based Therapy for the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative disorder associated with cartilage loss and is a leading cause of disability around the world. In old age, the capacity of cartilage to regenerate is diminished. With an aging population, the burden of OA is set to rise. Currently, there is no definitive treatment for OA. However, cell-based therapies derived from adipose tissue are promising. A PRISMA systematic review was conducted employing four databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, Web of Science) to identify all clinical studies that utilized adipose tissue derived mesenchymal stem cells (AMSCs) or stromal vascular fraction (SVF) for the treatment of knee OA. Eighteen studies were included, which met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses were conducted on fourteen of these studies, which all documented WOMAC scores after the administration of AMSCs. Pooled analysis revealed that cell-based treatments definitively improve WOMAC scores, post treatment. These improvements increased with time. The studies in this meta-analysis have established the safety and efficacy of both AMSC therapy and SVF therapy for knee OA in old adults and show that they reduce pain and improve knee function in symptomatic knee OA suggesting that they may be effective therapies to improve mobility in an aging population.

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association of heart rate with cardiovascular events and mortality in hypertensive and normotensive population: a nationwide prospective cohort study

Background

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. We assessed the association of baseline heart rate with cardiovascular events and mortality in hypertensive and normotensive populations using a prospective urban and rural epidemiology cohort study in China.

Methods

A total of 29,554 individuals were involved in our analysis, distributed equally between groups of normotensive and hypertensive. The primary outcomes were myocardial infarction, stroke, major cardiovascular diseases, and cardiovascular mortality. Cox frailty models were utilized to estimate hazard ratios for cardiovascular outcomes, and restricted cubic splines were used to explore the shape of the association between baseline heart rate and cardiovascular mortality.

Results

During a total observational time of 230,813 person-years, 402 myocardial infarction events, 1,096 stroke events, 1,540 major cardiovascular events, and 356 cardiovascular deaths were documented. In adjusted analyses, normotensive subjects with baseline heart rate >82.5 beats per minute had a 3.30-fold greater risk of cardiovascular death and an increased 72% risk of myocardial infarction, compared with individuals whose baseline heart rate was 65.5-71 beats per minute. A similar trend was observed for cardiovascular mortality in the hypertensive population, but the association was attenuated. Multivariable-adjusted restricted cubic splines showed linear associations between baseline heart rate and cardiovascular mortality in two groups of people (all P<0.05 for linearity).

Conclusions

Elevated baseline heart rate is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality and myocardial infarction in the normotensive population. The association is attenuated for cardiovascular death in hypertensive patients.

SARS-CoV-2 and other main pathogenic microorganisms in the environment: Situation in Galicia and Spain

In the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic, and mostly taking a broad perspective, it is clearly relevant to study environmental factors that could affect eventual future outbreaks due to coronaviruses and/or other pathogenic microorganisms. In view of that, the authors of this manuscript review the situation of SARS-CoV-2 and other main pathogenic microorganisms in the environment, focusing on Galicia and Spain. Overall, in addition to showing local data, it is put in evidence that, summed to all efforts being carried out to treat/control this and any other eventual future epidemic diseases, both at local and global levels, a deep attention should be paid to ecological/environmental aspects that have effects on the planet, its ecosystems and their relations/associations with the probability of spreading of eventual future pandemics.

Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost

BACKGROUND

The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. Although all people are exposed to air pollution, the older population (ie, those aged ≥60 years) tends to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels.

METHODS

In this global analysis, we developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life-year (VSLY) to estimate the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM_2·5 pollution using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age-specific and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to PM_2·5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model and global estimates of exposure at 0·1° × 0·1° (about 11 km × 11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLLs within each age group into a health-related cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM_2·5. Finally, we did a sensitivity test to analyse the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and concentration-response functions by age, cause, country, and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing power parity-adjusted US dollars. All simulations were done with R, version 3.6.0.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2016, PM_2·5 was estimated to have caused 8·42 million (95% UI 6·50-10·52) attributable deaths, which was associated with 163·68 million (116·03-219·44) YLLs. In 2016, the global economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM_2·5 pollution for the older population was US$2·40 trillion (1·89-2·93) accounting for 59% (59-60) of the cost for the total population ($4·09 trillion [3·19-5·05]). The economic cost per capita for the older population was $2739 (2160-3345) in 2016, which was 10 times that of the younger population (ie, those aged <60 years). By assessing the factors that contributed to economic costs, we found that increases in these factors changed the total economic cost by 77% for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, 21% for population ageing, 16% for population growth, -41% for age-specific mortality, and -0·4% for PM_2·5 exposure.

INTERPRETATION

The economic cost of ambient PM_2·5 borne by the older population almost doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven primarily by GDP growth, population ageing, and population growth. Compared with younger people, air pollution leads to disproportionately higher health costs among older people, even after accounting for their relatively shorter life expectancy and increased disability. As the world's population is ageing, the disproportionate health cost attributable to ambient PM_2·5 pollution potentially widens the health inequities for older people. Countries with severe air pollution and rapid ageing rates need to take immediate actions to improve air quality. In addition, strategies aimed at enhancing health-care services, especially targeting the older population, could be beneficial for reducing the health costs of ambient air pollution.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and Qiushi Foundation.

Global, regional and national disability-adjusted life years due to HIV from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

Increasing life expectancy and decreasing mortality in patients with HIV infection are well documented. However, details of how many of the years of healthy life are damaged by HIV infection vs. good health have not been understood. We conducted this study to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of the global burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), of HIV infection.

METHODS

Data on HIV-related DALY were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The absolute numbers and age-standardised rates of DALYs due to HIV were reported between 1990 and 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes in age-standardised rates by sex, region and nation were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in HIV burden.

RESULTS

Global HIV infection caused 47.63 million DALYs in 2019, presenting a 1.28-fold increase from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, years of life lost contributed to most of the total DALYs, but the increases in HIV-related years lived with disability have outpaced increases in years of life lost. The age-standardised rates of HIV-related DALYs in 2019 decreased as the sociodemographic indexes increased. The highest age-standardised rates were observed in sub-Saharan Africa, and the greatest increments over time were detected in Oceania.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, HIV continues to cause enormous healthy life loss. The first and foremost strategy for controlling the HIV burden is still the reduction of premature deaths, and much effort needs to be exerted to mitigate the harm of comorbidities.

Health systems strengthening to arrest the global disability burden: empirical development of prioritised components for a global strategy for improving musculoskeletal health

INTRODUCTION

Despite the profound burden of disease, a strategic global response to optimise musculoskeletal (MSK) health and guide national-level health systems strengthening priorities remains absent. Auspiced by the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health (G-MUSC), we aimed to empirically derive requisite priorities and components of a strategic response to guide global and national-level action on MSK health.

METHODS

Design: mixed-methods, three-phase design.Phase 1: qualitative study with international key informants (KIs), including patient representatives and people with lived experience. KIs characterised the contemporary landscape for MSK health and priorities for a global strategic response.Phase 2: scoping review of national health policies to identify contemporary MSK policy trends and foci.Phase 3: informed by phases 1-2, was a global eDelphi where multisectoral panellists rated and iterated a framework of priorities and detailed components/actions.

RESULTS

Phase 1: 31 KIs representing 25 organisations were sampled from 20 countries (40% low and middle income (LMIC)). Inductively derived themes were used to construct a logic model to underpin latter phases, consisting of five guiding principles, eight strategic priority areas and seven accelerators for action.Phase 2: of the 165 documents identified, 41 (24.8%) from 22 countries (88% high-income countries) and 2 regions met the inclusion criteria. Eight overarching policy themes, supported by 47 subthemes, were derived, aligning closely with the logic model.Phase 3: 674 panellists from 72 countries (46% LMICs) participated in round 1 and 439 (65%) in round 2 of the eDelphi. Fifty-nine components were retained with 10 (17%) identified as essential for health systems. 97.6% and 94.8% agreed or strongly agreed the framework was valuable and credible, respectively, for health systems strengthening.

CONCLUSION

An empirically derived framework, co-designed and strongly supported by multisectoral stakeholders, can now be used as a blueprint for global and country-level responses to improve MSK health and prioritise system strengthening initiatives.

Is asthma a risk factor for coronavirus disease-2019 worse outcomes? The answer is no, but …

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To search for evidence on whether having asthma increases the risk of poor outcomes of COVID-19 and report on recommendations on optimal asthma management in times of COVID-19.

RECENT FINDINGS

Patients with asthma are neither at greater risk of becoming infected by SARS-CoV-2 nor they are at risk of complications of COVID-19 but those requiring frequent use of oral corticosteroid may be at greater risk.

SUMMARY

In general, patients with asthma are not at risk of COVID-19 morbidity or mortality. On the contrary, patients with asthma may be at lower risk of hospitalizations during the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be related to asthma and its treatment, to patient's behavior, to the health system, and to collective changes in activities. It is likely that reduction in respiratory infections because of social distancing, face masks, and hand washing have a role in the reduction in asthma hospitalizations. Management of asthma in times of COVID-19 must be optimized, medication have to be used regularly and exacerbations detected early. Systemic corticosteroids may be used for control of severe asthma or severe exacerbations. Patient education on an action plan is crucial, as well as facilitating communications with the healthcare team.

Safety and immunogenicity of Vi-typhoid conjugate vaccine co-administration with routine 9-month vaccination in Burkina Faso: A randomized controlled phase 2 trial

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This is the first study on the co-administration of typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) in West Africa.

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Co-administration of TCV with routine vaccines in a typhoid-endemic country was successful.

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TCV was safely co-administered at nine months with yellow fever and measles-rubella vaccines.

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Single-dose TCV was immunogenic in 9-month-old children.

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There was no safety signal related to TCV vaccination or co-administration.

Objectives

In 2017, the World Health Organisation (WHO) pre-qualified a single-dose typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) and identified TCV co-administration studies as a research priority. Accordingly, we tested co-administration of Typbar TCV® (Bharat Biotech International) with measles-rubella (MR) and yellow fever (YF) vaccines.

Methods

We conducted a randomized, double-blind, and controlled, phase 2 trial in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Healthy children aged 9–11 months were randomized 1:1 to receive TCV (Group 1) or control vaccine (inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), Group 2). Vaccines were administered intramuscularly with routine MR and YF vaccines. Safety was assessed by (1) local and systemic reactions on days 0, 3, and 7; (2) unsolicited adverse events within 28 days; and (3) serious adverse events (SAEs) within six months after immunization.

Results

We enrolled, randomized, and vaccinated 100 eligible children (49 Group 1 and 51 Group 2). Safety outcomes occurred with similar frequency in both groups: local/solicited reactions (Group 1: 1/49, Group 2: 3/50), systemic/solicited reactions (Group 1: 4/49, Group 2: 9/50), unsolicited adverse events (Group 1: 26/49, Group 2: 33/51), and SAEs (Group 1: 2/49, Group 2: 3/51). TCV conferred robust immunogenicity without interference with MR or YF vaccines.

Conclusion

TCV can be safely co-administered with MR and YF vaccines to children at the 9-month vaccination visit.

Depression and cardiovascular disease

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review is to outline the relationship between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and depression, both as a cause of and a result of CVD.

RECENT FINDINGS

The prevalence of depression seems to be increasing in the general population.It is likely that depression will be even more of a problem for CVD patients in the post-COVID-19 pandemic era.New studies confirm the independent association of depression with later incident CVD, although perhaps not as strong as suggested by some previous studies.Depression seems to be becoming even more prevalent in CVD patients, with new data for stroke and peripheral arterial disease patients.Cardiologists rarely screen for depression and most do not believe that they have a responsibility for detecting or treating depression.There are new data suggesting that patients who are more in control of their lives have better outcomes and that change is possible.

SUMMARY

Depression is preventable and treatable. It is imperative to detect and manage depression in CVD patients. Additional research is required to see whether or not comprehensive patient screening for depression translates into both better quality of life and improved clinical outcomes.

Disease burden and attributable risk factors of respiratory infections in China from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

There was lack of data on the burdens and trends of upper and lower respiratory infections (URIs and LRIs) over the past three decades in China.

METHODS

We estimated the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to upper and lower respiratory infections (URIs and LRIs) and attributable risk factors in China by a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Incidence, mortality, and DALYs were stratified by sex, age, and province. Risk factors for respiratory infections were analyzed from exposure data.

FINDINGS

The age-standardized incidence rates of URIs and LRIs were 179,077 and 3926 per 100,000 persons in 2019, with a 7•52% and 35•07% decrease from 1990, respectively. Moreover, 2801 and 185,264 persons died of URIs and LRIs in 2019, respectively. DALYs for URIs and LRIs also decreased from 1,516,727 in 1990 to 928,617 in 2019 and from 38,278,504 in 1990 to 4,020,676 in 2019. The burden of URIs and LRIs were generally similar in males and females, but relatively higher in the new-borns and the elderly. Child malnutrition and low birth weight were the most important cause of age-standardized DALYs of LRIs and URIs, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Future URI and LRI prevention strategies should focus on the maternal and child health, air pollution, and tobacco control, especially in young children and the elderly population.

FUNDING

National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200); National Natural Science Foundation of China (82041021); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (20ykpy86) and Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2019A1515110003); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (No.: INV-006371).

The Delta Study - Prevalence and characteristics of mood disorders in 924 individuals with low mood: Results of the of the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI)

OBJECTIVES

The Delta Study was undertaken to improve the diagnosis of mood disorders in individuals presenting with low mood. The current study aimed to estimate the prevalence and explore the characteristics of mood disorders in participants of the Delta Study, and discuss their implications for clinical practice.

METHODS

Individuals with low mood (Patients Health Questionnaire-9 score ≥5) and either no previous mood disorder diagnosis (baseline low mood group, n = 429), a recent (≤5 years) clinical diagnosis of MDD (baseline MDD group, n = 441) or a previous clinical diagnosis of BD (established BD group, n = 54), were recruited online. Self-reported demographic and clinical data were collected through an extensive online mental health questionnaire and mood disorder diagnoses were determined with the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI).

RESULTS

The prevalence of BD and MDD in the baseline low mood group was 24% and 36%, respectively. The prevalence of BD among individuals with a recent diagnosis of MDD was 31%. Participants with BD in both baseline low mood and baseline MDD groups were characterized by a younger age at onset of the first low mood episode, more severe depressive symptoms and lower wellbeing, relative to the MDD or low mood groups. Approximately half the individuals with BD diagnosed as MDD (49%) had experienced (hypo)manic symptoms prior to being diagnosed with MDD.

CONCLUSIONS

The current results confirm high under- and misdiagnosis rates of mood disorders in individuals presenting with low mood, potentially leading to worsening of symptoms and decreased well-being, and indicate the need for improved mental health triage in primary care.