Target Trial Emulation: A Framework for Causal Inference From Observational Data

Real-world use of glucocorticoids and clinical outcomes in adults hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia on medical wards

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the real-world use of systemic glucocorticoids to treat patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) outside of the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 11,588 hospitalizations for CAP without chronic pulmonary disease at seven hospitals in Ontario, Canada. We report physician-level variation in the use of glucocorticoids and trends over time. We investigated the association between glucocorticoid prescriptions and clinical outcomes, using propensity score overlap weighting to account for confounding by indication.

RESULTS

Glucocorticoids were prescribed in 1283 (11.1%) patients, increasing over time from 10.0% in 2010 to 11.9% in 2020 (p = .008). Physician glucocorticoid prescribing ranged from 2.9% to 34.6% (median 10.0%, inter quartile range [IQR]: 6.7%-14.6%). Patients receiving glucocorticoids tended to be younger (median age 73 vs. 79), have higher Charlson comorbidity scores (score of 2 or more: 42.4% vs. 31.0%), more cancer (26.6% vs. 13.2%), more renal disease (11.5% vs. 6.6%), and less dementia (7.8% vs. 14.8%). Patients treated with glucocorticoids had higher rates of in-hospital mortality (weighted Risk Difference = 1.72, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.16-3.3, p = .033). Glucocorticoid use was not associated with ICU admission, hospital length-of-stay, or 30-day readmission.

CONCLUSION

Glucocorticoids were prescribed in 11.1% of patients hospitalized with CAP outside of ICU and one in four physicians prescribed glucocorticoids in more than 14% of patients. Glucocorticoid use was associated with greater in-hospital mortality, although these findings are limited by large selection effects. Clinicians should exercise caution in prescribing glucocorticoids for nonsevere CAP, and definitive trials are needed in this population.

Designing observational studies for credible causal inference in addiction research-Directed acyclic graphs, modified disjunctive cause criterion and target trial emulation

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for causal inference. With a sufficient sample size, randomization removes confounding up to the time of randomization and allows the treatment effect to be isolated. However, RCTs may have limited generalizability and transportability and are often not feasible in addiction research due to ethical or logistical constraints. The importance of observational studies from real-world settings has been increasingly recognized in research on health. This paper provides an overview of modern approaches to designing observational studies that enable causal inference. It illustrates three key techniques, Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), modified Disjunctive Cause Criterion and Target Trial Emulation, and discusses the strengths and limitations of their applications.

Causal Inference Challenges in the Relationship Between Social Determinants and Cardiovascular Outcomes

The effects of social determinants on cardiovascular outcomes are frequently estimated in epidemiologic analyses, but the profound causal and statistical challenges of this research program are not widely discussed. Here, we carefully review definitions and measures for social determinants of cardiovascular health and then examine the various assumptions required for valid causal inference in multivariable analyses of observational data, such as what one would typically encounter in cohorts, population surveys, health care databases, and vital statistics databases. We explain the necessity of the "well-defined exposure" and show how this goal relates to the "consistency assumption" that is necessary for valid causal inference. Well-defined exposure is especially challenging for social determinants of health because they are seldom simple atomistic interventions that are easily conceptualized and measured. We then review threats to valid inference that arise from confounding, selection bias, information bias, and positivity violations. Other causal considerations are reviewed and explained, such as correct model specification, absence of immortal time, and avoidance of the "Table 2 Fallacy," and their application to social determinants of cardiovascular outcomes are discussed. Fruitful approaches, including focusing on policy interventions and the "target trial" frameworks are proposed and provide a pathway for a more efficacious research program that can more reliably improve population health. Valid causal inference in this setting is quite challenging, but-with clever design and thoughtful analysis-the important role of social factors in patterning cardiovascular outcomes can be quantified and reported.

Optimising the use of electronic medical records for large scale research in psychiatry

The explosion and abundance of digital data could facilitate large-scale research for psychiatry and mental health. Research using so-called "real world data"-such as electronic medical/health records-can be resource-efficient, facilitate rapid hypothesis generation and testing, complement existing evidence (e.g. from trials and evidence-synthesis) and may enable a route to translate evidence into clinically effective, outcomes-driven care for patient populations that may be under-represented. However, the interpretation and processing of real-world data sources is complex because the clinically important 'signal' is often contained in both structured and unstructured (narrative or "free-text") data. Techniques for extracting meaningful information (signal) from unstructured text exist and have advanced the re-use of routinely collected clinical data, but these techniques require cautious evaluation. In this paper, we survey the opportunities, risks and progress made in the use of electronic medical record (real-world) data for psychiatric research.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor antibody/tyrosine kinase inhibitors with or without transarterial chemoembolization as first-line treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (CHANCE2201): a target trial emulation study

Background

The role of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in the treatment of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unconfirmed. This study aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) plus anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) antibody/tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) with or without TACE as first-line treatment for advanced HCC.

Methods

This nationwide, multicenter, retrospective cohort study included advanced HCC patients receiving either TACE with ICIs plus anti-VEGF antibody/TKIs (TACE-ICI-VEGF) or only ICIs plus anti-VEGF antibody/TKIs (ICI-VEGF) from January 2018 to December 2022. The study design followed the target trial emulation framework with stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (sIPTW) to minimize biases. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes included progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR), and safety. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05332821.

Findings

Among 1244 patients included in the analysis, 802 (64.5%) patients received TACE-ICI-VEGF treatment, and 442 (35.5%) patients received ICI-VEGF treatment. The median follow-up time was 21.1 months and 20.6 months, respectively. Post-application of sIPTW, baseline characteristics were well-balanced between the two groups. TACE-ICI-VEGF group exhibited a significantly improved median OS (22.6 months [95% CI: 21.2-23.9] vs 15.9 months [14.9-17.8]; P < 0.0001; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.63 [95% CI: 0.53-0.75]). Median PFS was also longer in TACE-ICI-VEGF group (9.9 months [9.1-10.6] vs 7.4 months [6.7-8.5]; P < 0.0001; aHR 0.74 [0.65-0.85]) per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) version 1.1. A higher ORR was observed in TACE-ICI-VEGF group, by either RECIST v1.1 or modified RECIST (41.2% vs 22.9%, P < 0.0001; 47.3% vs 29.7%, P < 0.0001). Grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 178 patients (22.2%) in TACE-ICI-VEGF group and 80 patients (18.1%) in ICI-VEGF group.

Interpretation

This multicenter study supports the use of TACE combined with ICIs and anti-VEGF antibody/TKIs as first-line treatment for advanced HCC, demonstrating an acceptable safety profile.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Jiangsu Provincial Medical Innovation Center, Collaborative Innovation Center of Radiation Medicine of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, and Nanjing Life Health Science and Technology Project.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors vs Sulfonylureas for Gout Prevention Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Receiving Metformin

Importance

Sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) are a revolutionary treatment for type 2 diabetes (T2D) with cardiovascular, kidney, and serum urate-lowering benefits.

Objective

To compare risk of incident gout and rate of recurrent flares between patients with T2D initiating SGLT2i vs sulfonylurea, most common second-line glucose-lowering therapy, when added to metformin monotherapy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This sequential, propensity score-matched, new-user comparative effectiveness study using target trial emulation framework included adults with T2D receiving metformin monotherapy in a Canadian general population database from January 1, 2014, to June 30, 2022.

Exposures

Initiation of SGLT2i vs sulfonylurea.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was incident gout diagnosis, ascertained by emergency department (ED), hospital, outpatient, and medication dispensing records. Secondary outcomes were gout-primary hospitalizations and ED visits and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), as well as recurrent flare rates among prevalent gout patients. Heart failure (HF) hospitalization was assessed as positive control outcome and osteoarthritis encounters as negative control. For target trial emulations, we used Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regressions with 1:1 propensity score matching (primary analysis) and overlap weighting (sensitivity analysis). The analysis was conducted from September to December, 2023.

Results

Among 34 604 propensity score matched adults with T2D initiating SGLT2i or sulfonylurea (20 816 [60%] male, mean [SD] age, 60 [12.4] years), incidence of gout was lower among SGLT2i initiators (4.27 events per 1000 person-years) than sulfonylurea initiators (6.91 events per 1000 person-years), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.48-0.80) and a rate difference (RD) of -2.64 (95% CI, -3.99 to -1.29) per 1000 person-years. Associations persisted regardless of sex, age, or baseline diuretic use. SGLT2i use was also associated with fewer recurrent flares among gout patients (rate ratio, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.55-0.82; and RD, -20.9; 95% CI, -31.9 to -10.0 per 1000 person-years). HR and RD for MACE associated with SGLT2i use were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.77-0.98) and -3.58 (95% CI, -6.19 to -0.96) per 1000 person-years. For control outcomes, SGLT2i users had lower risk of HF (HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.38-0.76), as expected, with no difference in osteoarthritis (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.94-1.34). Results were similar when applying propensity score overlap weighting.

Conclusions

In this population-based cohort study, the gout and cardiovascular benefits associated with SGLT2i in these target trial emulations may guide selection of glucose-lowering therapy in patients with T2D, at risk for or already with gout.

Emulating trial to evaluate the effectiveness of routine supportive care on mortality among cancer patients experiencing distress at the time of diagnosis

INTRODUCTION

Few studies have evaluated the effectiveness of interventions for distress during cancer diagnosis on clinical outcomes in a real-world setting. We aimed to evaluate whether routine information and psychosocial support to patients experiencing distress at the time of diagnosis could decrease the risk of mortality within 1 and 3 years after diagnosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 4880 newly diagnosed cancer patients who reported distress scores of ≥4 using the tablet or kiosk-based screening between July 2014 and December 2017 at a university-affiliated cancer center in Seoul, South Korea. We performed an emulated target trial with two groups: those that received information and psychosocial support and those that did not. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the associations between information and psychosocial support and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Of all the patients, 16.6 % had routine information and psychosocial support. The hazard ratio (HR) for one-year mortality comparing participants with information and psychosocial support to those without it were 0.73 (95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.54, 0.99). Age < 50 and 50 - <60 group had a stronger effect of information and psychosocial support on reducing mortality within one-year than these in age ≥ 60 (p for interaction = 0.03). In terms of three-year mortality, the HR comparing participants with information and psychosocial support to those without it was 0.93 (95 % CI = 0.76, 1.14).

CONCLUSION

This large-scale real-world study suggests that timely psychosocial care benefits newly diagnosed cancer patients who had distress during pre-treatment period.

Association Between Coronary Assessment in Heart Failure and Clinical Outcomes Within a Safety-Net Setting Using a Target Trial Emulation Observational Design

BACKGROUND

Ischemic cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of heart failure (HF). Most patients do not undergo coronary assessment after HF diagnosis. There are no randomized clinical trials of coronary assessment after HF diagnosis.

METHODS

Using an electronic health record cohort of all individuals with HF within the San Francisco Health Network from 2001 to 2019, we identified factors associated with coronary assessment. Then, we studied the association of coronary assessment within 30 days of HF diagnosis with all-cause mortality and a composite of mortality and emergent angiography using a target trial emulation observational comparative-effectiveness approach. Target trial emulation is an approach to causal inference based on creating a hypothetical randomized clinical trial protocol and using observational data to emulate the protocol. We used propensity scores for covariate adjustment. We used national death records to improve the ascertainment of mortality and included falsification end points for the cause of death.

RESULTS

Among 14 829 individuals with HF (median, 62 years old; 5855 [40%] women), 3987 (26.9%) ever completed coronary assessment, with 2467/13 301 (18.5%) with unknown coronary artery disease status at HF diagnosis assessed. Women, older individuals, and people without stable housing were less likely to complete coronary assessment. Among 5972 eligible persons of whom 627 underwent early elective coronary assessment, coronary assessment was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.72-0.97]; P=0.025), reduced risk of the composite outcome (hazard ratio, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.73-1.00]), higher rates of revascularization (odds ratio, 7.6 [95% CI, 5.4-10.6]), and higher use of medical therapy (odds ratio, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.7-3.6]), but not the falsification end points.

CONCLUSIONS

In a safety-net population, disparities in coronary assessment after HF diagnosis are not fully explained by coronary artery disease risk factors. Early coronary assessment is associated with improved HF outcomes possibly related to higher rates of revascularization and guideline-directed medical therapy but with low certainty that this finding is not attributable to unmeasured confounding.

Joint analysis of vaccination effectiveness and antiviral drug effectiveness for COVID-19: a causal inference approach

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to estimate the causal effects of oral antivirals and vaccinations in the prevention of all-cause mortality and progression to severe COVID-19 in an integrative setting with both antivirals and vaccinations considered as interventions.

METHODS

We identified hospitalized adult patients (i.e. aged 18 or above) in Hong Kong with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 16, 2022, and December 31, 2022. An inverse probability-weighted (IPW) Andersen-Gill model with time-dependent predictors was used to address immortal time bias and produce causal estimates for the protection effects of oral antivirals and vaccinations against severe COVID-19.

RESULTS

Given prescription is made within 5 days of confirmed infection, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir is more effective in providing protection against all-cause mortality and development into severe COVID-19 than molnupiravir. There was no significant difference between CoronaVac and Comirnaty in the effectiveness of reducing all-cause mortality and progression to severe COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of oral antivirals and vaccinations causes lower risks of all-cause mortality and progression to severe COVID-19 for hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients.

[Advances in Mendelian randomization studies on autism spectrum disorder]

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a pervasive neurodevelopmental disorder with onset in infancy or early childhood. Mendelian randomization (MR) is a statistical method used to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes. This article summarizes MR studies related to ASD. Existing research supports a causal relationship between maternal inflammatory bowel disease in children with ASD, parental education levels, screen time exposure, obesity, insomnia, serum transferrin, decreased blood selenium, abnormal signals in brain functional MRI, interleukin-6, phosphodiesterase 2A, mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase 3, mitochondrial ribosomal protein L33, serotonin, and ASD. However, it does not support a causal relationship between parental rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, neonatal jaundice in children with ASD, cytomegalovirus infection, asthma, oral ulcers, vitamin D levels, and ASD. This article reviews the etiological factors related to ASD and MR studies, aiming to explore and deepen the understanding of the pathophysiology of ASD. It provides strong statistical support for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of ASD, and offers new methods and strategies for the etiological analysis of complex traits.

Serious Bleeding in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Using Diltiazem With Apixaban or Rivaroxaban

Importance

Diltiazem, a commonly prescribed ventricular rate-control medication for patients with atrial fibrillation, inhibits apixaban and rivaroxaban elimination, possibly causing overanticoagulation.

Objective

To compare serious bleeding risk for new users of apixaban or rivaroxaban with atrial fibrillation treated with diltiazem or metoprolol.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with atrial fibrillation who initiated apixaban or rivaroxaban use and also began treatment with diltiazem or metoprolol between January 1, 2012, and November 29, 2020. Patients were followed up to 365 days through November 30, 2020. Data were analyzed from August 2023 to February 2024.

Exposures

Diltiazem and metoprolol.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was a composite of bleeding-related hospitalization and death with recent evidence of bleeding. Secondary outcomes were ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, major ischemic or hemorrhagic events (ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, intracranial or fatal extracranial bleeding, or death with recent evidence of bleeding), and death without recent evidence of bleeding. Hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) were adjusted for covariate differences with overlap weighting.

Results

The study included 204 155 US Medicare beneficiaries, of whom 53 275 received diltiazem and 150 880 received metoprolol. Study patients (mean [SD] age, 76.9 [7.0] years; 52.7% female) had 90 927 person-years (PY) of follow-up (median, 120 [IQR, 59-281] days). Patients receiving diltiazem treatment had increased risk for the primary outcome (RD, 10.6 [95% CI, 7.0-14.2] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.13-1.29]) and its components of bleeding-related hospitalization (RD, 8.2 [95% CI, 5.1-11.4] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.13-1.31]) and death with recent evidence of bleeding (RD, 2.4 [95% CI, 0.6-4.2] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.05-1.34]) compared with patients receiving metoprolol. Risk for the primary outcome with initial diltiazem doses exceeding 120 mg/d (RD, 15.1 [95% CI, 10.2-20.1] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.19-1.39]) was greater than that for lower doses (RD, 6.7 [95% CI, 2.0-11.4] per 1000 PY; HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.04-1.24]). For doses exceeding 120 mg/d, the risk of major ischemic or hemorrhagic events was increased (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.02-1.27]). Neither dose group had significant changes in the risk for ischemic stroke or systemic embolism or death without recent evidence of bleeding. When patients receiving high- and low-dose diltiazem treatment were directly compared, the HR for the primary outcome was 1.14 (95% CI, 1.02-1.26).

Conclusions and Relevance

In Medicare patients with atrial fibrillation receiving apixaban or rivaroxaban, diltiazem was associated with greater risk of serious bleeding than metoprolol, particularly for diltiazem doses exceeding 120 mg/d.

Effect of immediate initiation of invasive ventilation on mortality in acute hypoxemic respiratory failure: a target trial emulation

PURPOSE

Invasive ventilation is a fundamental treatment in intensive care but its precise timing is difficult to determine. This study aims at assessing the effect of initiating invasive ventilation versus waiting, in patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure without immediate reason for intubation on one-year mortality.

METHODS

Emulation of a target trial to estimate the benefit of immediately initiating invasive ventilation in hypoxemic respiratory failure, versus waiting, among patients within the first 48-h of hypoxemia. The eligible population included non-intubated patients with SpO2/FiO2 ≤ 200 and SpO2 ≤ 97%. The target trial was emulated using a single-center database (MIMIC-IV) which contains granular information about clinical status. The hourly probability to receive mechanical ventilation was continuously estimated. The hazard ratios for the primary outcome, one-year mortality, and the secondary outcome, 30-day mortality, were estimated using weighted Cox models with stabilized inverse probability weights used to adjust for measured confounding.

RESULTS

2996 Patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria of whom 792 were intubated within 48 h. Among the non-invasive support devices, the use of oxygen through facemask was the most common (75%). Compared to patients with the same probability of intubation but who were not intubated, intubation decreased the hazard of dying for the first year after ICU admission HR 0.81 (95% CI 0.68-0.96, p = 0.018). Intubation was associated with a 30-day mortality HR of 0.80 (95% CI 0.64-0.99, p = 0.046).

CONCLUSION

The initiation of mechanical ventilation in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure reduced the hazard of dying in this emulation of a target trial.

Oral vancomycin is associated with improved inflammatory bowel disease clinical outcomes in primary sclerosing cholangitis-associated inflammatory bowel disease (PSC-IBD): A matched analysis from the Paediatric PSC Consortium

BACKGROUND

Data on oral vancomycin for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC)-associated inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are limited.

AIMS

Using data from the Paediatric PSC Consortium, to examine the effect of vancomycin on IBD activity.

METHODS

In this retrospective multi-centre cohort study, we matched vancomycin-treated and untreated patients (1:3) based on IBD duration at the time of primary outcome assessment. The primary outcome was Physician Global Assessment (PGA) of IBD clinical activity after 1 year (±6 months) of vancomycin. We used generalised estimating equations (GEE) to examine the association between vancomycin and PGA remission, adjusting for IBD type, severity and medication exposures. Secondary outcomes included serum labs and endoscopic remission (global rating of no activity) among those with available data and also analysed with GEE.

RESULTS

113 PSC-IBD patients received vancomycin (median age 12.7 years, 63% male). The matched cohort included 70 vancomycin-treated and 210 untreated patients. Vancomycin was associated with greater odds of IBD clinical remission (odds ratio [OR] 3.52, 95% CI 1.97-6.31; adjusted OR [aOR] 5.24, 95% CI 2.68-10.22). Benefit was maintained in sensitivity analyses restricted to non-transplanted patients and those with baseline moderate-severe PGA. Vancomycin was associated with increased odds of endoscopic remission (aOR 2.76, 95% CI 1.002-7.62; N = 101 with data), and with lower CRP (p = 0.03) and higher haemoglobin and albumin (both p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Vancomycin was associated with greater odds of IBD clinical and endoscopic remission. Additional, preferably randomised, controlled studies are needed to characterise efficacy using objective markers of mucosal inflammation, and to examine safety and define optimal dosing.

Comparative responses to 17 different antidepressants in major depressive disorder: Results from a 2-year long-term nation-wide population-based study emulating a randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Long-term studies comparing nonresponse to antidepressants for major depressive disorder (MDD) are lacking.

AIMS

To present systematic population-based nation-wide register data on comparative 2-year non-response within six antidepressant drug classes and 17 different antidepressants in patients with MDD.

METHOD

The study included all 106,920 patients in Denmark with a first main index diagnosis of MDD at a psychiatric hospital inpatient or outpatient contact and who subsequently had a purchase of an antidepressant in the period from 1995 to 2018. Non-response to first antidepressant within a 2-year study period was defined as switch to or add-on of another antidepressant, antipsychotic medication, lithium, or hospitalization. Analyses emulated a targeted trial in populations standardized according to age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidity with psychiatric and physical disorders.

RESULTS

Compared with sertraline, there was no difference for citalopram (RR: 1.00 [95% CI: 0.98-1.02]) but fluoxetine (1.13 [95% CI: 1.10-1.17]), paroxetine (1.06 [95% CI: 1.01-1.10]) and escitalopram (1.22 [95% CI: 1.18-1.25]) were associated with higher risk ratio of non-responses. Within selective noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors, sertraline outperformed reboxetine; within serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, venlafaxine outperformed duloxetine; within noradrenergic and specific serotonergic antidepressants, mirtazapine outperformed mianserin and within the class of other antidepressants, sertraline outperformed agomelatine and vortioxetine. Within tricyclic antidepressants, compared to amitriptyline, nortriptyline, dosulepin, and clomipramine had higher non-response, whereas there was no difference for imipramine.

CONCLUSIONS

These analyses emulating a randomized trial of "real world" observational register-based data show that 2-year long-term non-responses to some antidepressants within six different drug classes are increased over others.

Physical activity across midlife and health-related quality of life in Australian women: A target trial emulation using a longitudinal cohort

BACKGROUND

There is little long-term causal evidence on the effect of physical activity on health-related quality of life. This study aimed to examine the associations between longitudinal patterns of physical activity over 15 years and health-related quality of life in both the physical and mental health domains, in a cohort of middle-aged Australian women.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used data collected at 3-year intervals (1998 to 2019) from 11,336 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) (1946 to 1951 birth cohort). Primary outcomes were the physical (PCS) and mental health component summary (MCS) scores (range from 0 to 100; higher scores indicate higher perceived physical/mental health) from the SF-36 in 2019 (when women aged 68 to 73 years). Using target trial emulation to imitate a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we tested 2 interventions: (1) meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) physical activity guidelines consistently throughout the 15-year "exposure period" (2001 to 2016; when women aged 50-55 to 65-70 years; physical activity assessed every 3 years); and (2) not meeting the guidelines at the beginning of the exposure period but starting to first meet the guidelines at age 55, 60, or 65; against the control of not meeting the guidelines throughout the exposure period. Analysis controlled for confounding using marginal structural models which were adjusted for sociodemographic and health variables and conditions. Consistent adherence to guidelines during the exposure period (PCS: 46.93 [99.5% confidence interval [CI]: 46.32, 47.54]) and first starting to meet the guidelines at age 55 (PCS: 46.96 [99.5% CI: 45.53, 48.40]) were associated with three-point higher PCS (mean score difference: 3.0 [99.5% CI: 1.8, 4.1] and 3.0 [99.5% CI:1.2, 4.8]) than consistent non-adherence (PCS: 43.90 [99.5% CI: 42.79, 45.01]). We found a similar pattern for most SF-36 subscales but no significant effects of the interventions on MCS. The main limitations of the study were that it may not account for all underlying health conditions and/or other unmeasured or insufficiently measured confounders, the use of self-reported physical activity and that findings may not be generalizable to all mid-age women.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from the emulated RCT suggest women should be active throughout mid-age, ideally increasing activity levels to meet the guidelines by age 55, to gain the most benefits for physical health in later life.

Physical Activity, Mental Activity, and Risk of Incident Stroke: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Cumulative evidence suggests a correlation between physical or mental activity and the risk of stroke. However, the combined impact of these activities on stroke onset remains unexplored. This study identified physical and mental activity patterns using principal component analysis and investigated their associations with risk of incident stroke in the general population.

METHODS

Our study was sourced from the UK Biobank cohort between 2006 and 2010. Information on physical and mental-related activities were obtained through a touch-screen questionnaire. The incident stroke was diagnosed by physicians and subsequently verified through linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics. Principal component analysis was used to identify potential physical and mental activity patterns. Cox proportional hazard regression models were performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of incident stroke, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

The initial UK Biobank cohort originally consisted of 502 411 individuals, of whom a total of 386 902 participants (aged 38-79 years) without any history of stroke at baseline were included in our study. During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 6983 (1.8%) cases of stroke were documented. The mean age of the included participants was 55.9 years, and the proportion of women was 55.1%. We found that multiple individual items related to physical and mental activity showed significant associations with risk of stroke. We identified 4 patterns of physical activity and 3 patterns of mental activity using principal component analysis. The adherence to activity patterns of vigorous exercise, housework, and walking predominant patterns were associated with a lower risk of stroke by 17% (HR, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.78-0.89]; 20% (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.75-0.85]; and 20% (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.75-0.86), respectively. Additionally, the transportation predominant pattern (HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.28-1.45) and watching TV pattern (HR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.33-1.53) were found to be significantly associated with a higher risk of stroke. These associations remained consistent across all subtypes of stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Activity patterns mainly related to frequent vigorous exercise, housework, and walking were associated with lower risks of stroke and all its subtypes. Our findings provide new insights for promoting suitable patterns of physical and mental activity for primary prevention of stroke.

Do We Need to Administer Fludrocortisone in Addition to Hydrocortisone in Adult Patients With Septic Shock? An Updated Systematic Review With Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials and an Observational Study With Target Trial Emulation

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis evaluated the efficacy and safety of hydrocortisone combined with fludrocortisone or hydrocortisone alone, compared with placebo in adult patients with septic shock.

DATA SOURCES

By extending a prior Cochrane review, databases, including PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov , along with other relevant websites, were searched until August 31, 2023.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies using target trial emulation were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

The primary outcome was short-term mortality with an emphasis on 28- or 30-day mortality as the main measure and in-hospital or ICU mortality as the nearest surrogate of this measure. Three of the most common adverse events, namely, gastroduodenal bleeding, superinfection, and hyperglycemia, were also considered.

DATA SYNTHESIS

A total of 19 studies involving 95,841 patients were included. Hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone showed the lowest short-term mortality versus placebo (odds ratio [OR]: 0.79; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.64-0.99; number needed to treat [NNT]: 21, range: 12-500; low certainty of evidence) in terms of informative priors. The surface under the cumulative ranking curve values for hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone, hydrocortisone alone, and placebo were 0.9469, 0.4542, and 0.0989, respectively. Consistent results were observed in RCTs alone and those using a daily 200-mg dose of hydrocortisone. Although gastroduodenal bleeding or superinfection showed no clear increase, hyperglycemia risk increased. The ORs were 0.53 for placebo versus hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone and 0.64 for placebo versus hydrocortisone alone, with very low certainty of evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

In adults with septic shock, hydrocortisone plus fludrocortisone improved short-term survival with minimal adverse events compared with hydrocortisone alone or placebo. However, these findings are not definitive due to the limited certainty of evidence and wide NNT range. Additional large-scale, placebo-controlled RCTs are needed to provide conclusive evidence.

Comparative effectiveness of extended release naltrexone and sublingual buprenorphine for treatment of opioid use disorder among Medicaid patients

Aims

To compare the real-world effectiveness of extended release naltrexone (XR-NTX) and sublingual buprenorphine (SL-BUP) for the treatment of opioid use disorder (OUD).

Design

An observational active comparator, new user cohort study.

Setting

Medicaid claims records for patients in New Jersey and California, 2016-2019.

Participants/Cases

Adult Medicaid patients aged 18-64 years who initiated XR-NTX or SL-BUP for maintenance treatment of OUD and did not use medications for OUD in the 90-days before initiation.

Comparators

New initiation with XR-NTX versus SL-BUP for the treatment of OUD.

Measurements

We examined two outcomes up to 180 days after medication initiation, 1) composite of medication discontinuation and death, and 2) composite of overdose and death.

Findings

Our cohort included 1,755 XR-NTX and 9,886 SL-BUP patients. In adjusted analyses, treatment with XR-NTX was more likely to result in discontinuation or death by the end of follow-up than treatment with SL-BUP: cumulative risk 76% (95% confidence interval [CI] 75%, 78%) versus 62% (95% CI 61%, 63%), respectively (risk difference 14 percentage points, 95% CI 13, 16). There was minimal difference in the cumulative risk of overdose or death by the end of follow-up: XR-NTX 3.8% (95% CI 2.9%, 4.7%) versus SL-BUP 3.3% (95% 2.9%, 3.7%); risk difference 0.5 percentage points, 95%CI -0.5, 1.5. Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Longer medication retention is important because risks of negative outcomes are elevated after discontinuation. Our results support selection of SL-BUP over XR-NTX. However, most patients discontinued medication by 6 months indicating that more effective tools are needed to improve medication retention, particularly after initiation with XR-NTX, and to identify which patients do best on which medication.

Effectiveness of glucose-lowering medications on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes at moderate cardiovascular risk

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death among people with type 2 diabetes1-5, most of whom are at moderate CVD risk6, yet there is limited evidence on the preferred choice of glucose-lowering medication for CVD risk reduction in this population. Here, we report the results of a retrospective cohort study where data for US adults with type 2 diabetes and moderate risk for CVD are used to compare the risks of experiencing a major adverse cardiovascular event with initiation of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA; n = 44,188), sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i; n = 47,094), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i; n = 84,315) and sulfonylureas (n = 210,679). Compared to DPP4i, GLP-1RA (hazard ratio (HR) 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-0.93) and SGLT2i (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.81-0.90) were associated with a lower risk of a major adverse cardiovascular event, whereas sulfonylureas were associated with a higher risk (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.16-1.22). Thus, GLP-1RA and SGLT2i may be the preferred glucose-lowering agents for cardiovascular risk reduction in patients at moderate baseline risk for CVD. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT05214573.

Prospective benchmarking of an observational analysis in the SWEDEHEART registry against the REDUCE-AMI randomized trial

Prospective benchmarking of an observational analysis against a randomized trial increases confidence in the benchmarking process as it relies exclusively on aligning the protocol of the trial and the observational analysis, while the trials findings are unavailable. The Randomized Evaluation of Decreased Usage of Betablockers After Myocardial Infarction (REDUCE-AMI, ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03278509) trial started recruitment in September 2017 and results are expected in 2024. REDUCE-AMI aimed to estimate the effect of long-term use of beta blockers on the risk of death and myocardial following a myocardial infarction with preserved left ventricular systolic ejection fraction. We specified the protocol of a target trial as similar as possible to that of REDUCE-AMI, then emulated the target trial using observational data from Swedish healthcare registries. Had everyone followed the treatment strategy as specified in the target trial protocol, the observational analysis estimated a reduction in the 5-year risk of death or myocardial infarction of 0.8 percentage points for beta blockers compared with no beta blockers; effects ranging from an absolute reduction of 4.5 percentage points to an increase of 2.8 percentage points in the risk of death or myocardial infarction were compatible with our data under conventional statistical criteria. Once results of REDUCE-AMI are published, we will compare the results of our observational analysis against those from the trial. If this prospective benchmarking is successful, it supports the credibility of additional analyses using these observational data, which can rapidly deliver answers to questions that could not be answered by the initial trial. If benchmarking proves unsuccessful, we will conduct a "postmortem" analysis to identify the reasons for the discrepancy. Prospective benchmarking shifts the investigator focus away from an endeavour to use observational data to obtain similar results as a completed randomized trial, to a systematic attempt to align the design and analysis of the trial and the observational analysis.

The association between antenatal corticosteroids exposure and postnatal growth in infants born between 23 and 29 weeks of gestation

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between antenatal corticosteroids exposure and postnatal growth in infants born at 23-29 weeks' gestation.

STUDY DESIGN

This retrospective study used data from the Pediatrix Clinical Data Warehouse. Maternal-infant dyads from 2018 to 2020 were included. Inverse propensity weighting (IPW) was applied to balance pre-treatment confounders. Primary outcomes included postnatal weight, length, and head circumference growth trajectory percentiles.

RESULT

The unadjusted cohort consisted of 11,912 dyads. After IPW adjustment, there were 23,231 dyads. Exposed infants showed higher postnatal trajectory percentiles for weight (by 3.4%), length (by 1.8%), and head circumference (by 2.5%) when compared to non-exposed infants. The positive association between antenatal corticosteroids and postnatal growth was only observed in infants not exposed to preeclampsia/eclampsia/HELLP syndrome or without fetal growth restriction.

CONCLUSION

Antenatal corticosteroids exposure is associated with better postnatal growth. The study is limited by its retrospective nature.

CPAP Versus NIPPV Postextubation in Preterm Neonates: A Comparative-Effectiveness Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Nasal intermittent positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) has been shown to be superior to nasal continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) postextubation in preterm neonates. However, studies have not permitted high CPAP pressures or rescue with other modes. We hypothesized that if CPAP pressures >8 cmH2O and rescue with other modes were permitted, CPAP would be noninferior to NIPPV.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic, comparative-effectiveness, noninferiority study utilizing network-based real-world data from 22 Canadian NICUs. Centers self-selected CPAP or NIPPV as their standard postextubation mode for preterm neonates <29 weeks' gestation. The primary outcome was failure of the initial mode ≤72 hours. Secondary outcomes included failure ≤7 days, and reintubation ≤72 hours and ≤7 days. Groups were compared using a noninferiority adjusted risk-difference (aRD) margin of 0.05, and margin of no difference.

RESULTS

A total of 843 infants extubated to CPAP and 974 extubated to NIPPV were included. CPAP was not noninferior (and inferior) to NIPPV for failure of the initial mode ≤72 hours (33.0% vs 26.3%; aRD 0.07 [0.03 to 0.12], Pnoninferiority(NI) = .86), and ≤7 days (40.7% vs 35.8%; aRD 0.09 [0.05 to 0.13], PNI = 0.97). However, CPAP was noninferior (and equivalent) to NIPPV for reintubation ≤72 hours (13.2% vs 16.1%; aRD 0.01 [-0.05 to 0.02], PNI < .01), and noninferior (and superior) for reintubation ≤7 days (16.4% vs 22.8%; aRD -0.04 [-0.07 to -0.001], PNI < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

CPAP was not noninferior to NIPPV for failure ≤72 hours postextubation; however, it was noninferior to NIPPV for reintubation ≤72 hours and ≤7 days. This suggests CPAP may be a reasonable initial postextubation mode if alternate rescue strategies are available.

Association Between a National Behavioral Weight Management Program and Veterans Affairs Health Expenditures

OBJECTIVE

The association between participation in a behavioral weight intervention and health expenditures has not been well characterized. We compared Veterans Affairs (VA) expenditures of individuals participating in MOVE!, a VA behavioral weight loss program, and matched comparators 2 years before and 2 years after MOVE! initiation.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of Veterans who had one or more MOVE! visits in 2008-2017 who were matched contemporaneously to up to 3 comparators with overweight or obesity through sequential stratification on an array of patient characteristics, including sex. Baseline patient characteristics were compared between the two cohorts through standardized mean differences. VA expenditures in the 2 years before MOVE! initiation and 2 years after initiation were modeled using generalized estimating equations with a log link and distribution with variance proportional to the standard deviation (gamma).

RESULTS

MOVE! participants (n=499,696) and comparators (n=1,336,172) were well-matched, with an average age of 56, average body mass index of 35, and similar total VA expenditures in the fiscal year before MOVE! initiation ($9662 for MOVE! participants and $10,072 for comparators, standardized mean difference=-0.019). MOVE! participants had total expenditures that were statistically lower than matched comparators in the 6 months after initiation but modestly higher in the 6 months to 2 years after initiation, though differences were small in magnitude (1.0%-1.6% differences).

CONCLUSIONS

The VA's system-wide behavioral weight intervention did not realize meaningful short-term health care cost savings for participants.

ADHD Pharmacotherapy and Mortality in Individuals With ADHD

Importance

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with increased risks of adverse health outcomes including premature death, but it is unclear whether ADHD pharmacotherapy influences the mortality risk.

Objective

To investigate whether initiation of ADHD pharmacotherapy was associated with reduced mortality risk in individuals with ADHD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In an observational nationwide cohort study in Sweden applying the target trial emulation framework, we identified individuals aged 6 through 64 years with an incident diagnosis of ADHD from 2007 through 2018 and no ADHD medication dispensation prior to diagnosis. Follow-up started from ADHD diagnosis until death, emigration, 2 years after ADHD diagnosis, or December 31, 2020, whichever came first.

Exposures

ADHD medication initiation was defined as dispensing of medication within 3 months of diagnosis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

We assessed all-cause mortality within 2 years of ADHD diagnosis, as well as natural-cause (eg, physical conditions) and unnatural-cause mortality (eg, unintentional injuries, suicide, and accidental poisonings).

Results

Of 148 578 individuals with ADHD (61 356 females [41.3%]), 84 204 (56.7%) initiated ADHD medication. The median age at diagnosis was 17.4 years (IQR, 11.6-29.1 years). The 2-year mortality risk was lower in the initiation treatment strategy group (39.1 per 10 000 individuals) than in the noninitiation treatment strategy group (48.1 per 10 000 individuals), with a risk difference of -8.9 per 10 000 individuals (95% CI, -17.3 to -0.6). ADHD medication initiation was associated with significantly lower rate of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.88) and unnatural-cause mortality (2-year mortality risk, 25.9 per 10 000 individuals vs 33.3 per 10 000 individuals; risk difference, -7.4 per 10 000 individuals; 95% CI, -14.2 to -0.5; HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86), but not natural-cause mortality (2-year mortality risk, 13.1 per 10 000 individuals vs 14.7 per 10 000 individuals; risk difference, -1.6 per 10 000 individuals; 95% CI, -6.4 to 3.2; HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.05).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among individuals diagnosed with ADHD, medication initiation was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality, particularly for death due to unnatural causes.

Outcomes After Initiation of Medications for Alcohol Use Disorder at Hospital Discharge

Importance

US Food and Drug Administration-approved medications for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) are significantly underused. Hospitalizations may provide an unmet opportunity to initiate MAUD, but few studies have examined clinical outcomes of patients who initiate these medications at hospital discharge.

Objective

To investigate the association between discharge MAUD initiation and 30-day posthospitalization outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted among patients with Medicare Part D who had alcohol-related hospitalizations in 2016. Data were analyzed from October 2022 to December 2023.

Exposures

Discharge MAUD initiation was defined as oral naltrexone, acamprosate, or disulfiram pharmacy fills within 2 days of discharge.

Main outcomes

The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality or return to hospital (emergency department visits and hospital readmissions) within 30 days of discharge. Secondary outcomes included these components separately, return to hospital for alcohol-related diagnoses, and primary care or mental health follow-up within 30 days of discharge. Propensity score 3:1 matching and modified Poisson regressions were used to compare outcomes between patients who received and did not receive discharge MAUD.

Results

There were 6794 unique individuals representing 9834 alcohol-related hospitalizations (median [IQR] age, 54 [46-62] years; 3205 hospitalizations among females [32.6%]; 1754 hospitalizations among Black [17.8%], 712 hospitalizations among Hispanic [7.2%], and 7060 hospitalizations among White [71.8%] patients). Of these, 192 hospitalizations (2.0%) involved discharge MAUD initiation. After propensity matching, discharge MAUD initiation was associated with a 42% decreased incidence of the primary outcome (incident rate ratio, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.45 to 0.76]; absolute risk difference, -0.18 [95% CI, -0.26 to -0.11]). These findings were consistent among secondary outcomes (eg, incident rate ratio for all-cause return to hospital, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.43 to 0.73]) except for mortality, which was rare in both groups (incident rate ratio, 3.00 [95% CI, 0.42 to 21.22]). Discharge MAUD initiation was associated with a 51% decreased incidence of alcohol-related return to hospital (incident rate ratio, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.34 to 0.71]; absolute risk difference, -0.15 [95% CI, -0.22 to -0.09]).

Conclusion and relevance

In this cohort study, discharge initiation of MAUD after alcohol-related hospitalization was associated with a large absolute reduction in return to hospital within 30 days. These findings support efforts to increase uptake of MAUD initiation at hospital discharge.

Integrating Evidence to Guide Use of Biologics and Small Molecules for Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

Advances in science have led to the development of multiple biologics and small molecules for the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). This growth in advanced medical therapies has been accompanied by an increase in methodological innovation to study and compare therapies. Guidelines provide an evidence-based approach to integrating therapies into routine practice, but they are often unable to provide timely recommendations as new therapies come to market, and they have limited incorporation of real-world evidence when making recommendations. This limits the scope and usability of guidelines, and a gap remains in defining how best to position and integrate advanced medical therapies for IBD. In this review, we provide a framework for clinicians and researchers to understand key differences in sources of evidence, how different methodologies are applied to study the comparative effectiveness of advanced medical therapies in IBD, and considerations for how these sources of evidence can be used to better integrate current guideline recommendations. Over time, we anticipate this framework will allow for a transition to living guidelines and/or practice recommendations.

Comparative effectiveness of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for depression in 43,061 older adults with chronic somatic diseases: A Danish target trial emulation study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the comparative effectiveness of commonly used selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for comorbid depression in older adults with chronic somatic diseases by applying a target-trial-emulation framework.

METHODS

Danish target-trial-emulation study including 43,061 individuals aged ≥65 years (54.1% females, mean age 77.8 years) with a first redeemed prescription for depression with sertraline (n = 6673), escitalopram (n = 7104) or citalopram (n = 29,284) in 2006-2017. Individuals had cancer, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), chronic-obstructive-pulmonary-disease (COPD)/asthma, diabetes, neurodegenerative disorders, or osteoporosis. Outcomes were treatment switching, combination/augmentation, psychiatric hospital contact for depression, and any psychiatric in-patient care. Follow-up was one year and adjusted Cox regression analyses calculated hazard rate ratios (HRR) within each somatic disease.

RESULTS

Across all six disease groups and four outcomes, we found that citalopram use, compared with sertraline, was associated with lower risks in several analyses, with statistically significant results in cancer, CVD, COPD/asthma, and diabetes (e.g., HRRs for psychiatric hospital contacts for depression/any psychiatric in-patient care ranging between 0.47 and 0.61). For escitalopram, compared with sertraline, some analyses indicated poorer outcomes with significantly higher risks for combination/augmentation treatment (HRRs ranging between 1.15 and 1.40).

CONCLUSIONS

Although observational studies are prone to confounding, these findings indicate clinically relevant differences between the SSRIs, with better outcomes in citalopram users and poorer outcomes in escitalopram users than sertraline, urging the need for clinical studies in this vulnerable patient population.

Long-term cognitive outcomes after surgery and anesthesia: what we find depends on where we look

Purpose of review

To review how anecdote and narrative medicine, primary cohort studies, epidemiological studies, and the dementia literature can be bridged to understand long-term postoperative cognitive decline.

Recent findings

Primary cohort studies have measured recoverable declines in memory and executive function after major surgery, but less-appreciated sources also offer critical insights. Anecdote reveals that functionally-impactful cognitive decline may persist after physical recovery in some patients despite modern medications and monitoring, and that physicians are unprepared to address patients' cognitive concerns. However, epidemiological studies reproducibly demonstrate that elective surgery has no, or a negligible, average impact on cognition in older patients. Cognitively provocative factors - like medical hospital admissions or health factors like diabetes and smoking - are common in late life, and surgery likely contributes minimally to long-term cognitive change for most patients.

Summary

Patients should be reassured that, while anecdotes of durable cognitive change after surgery are easily accessible, most patients experience cognitive recovery after major surgery. However, those who do not recover deserve characterization of their symptoms and investigation of modifiable causes to facilitate cognitive recovery.

To weight or not to weight? Studying the effect of selection bias in three large EHR-linked biobanks

Objective

To explore the role of selection bias adjustment by weighting electronic health record (EHR)-linked biobank data for commonly performed analyses.

Materials and methods

We mapped diagnosis (ICD code) data to standardized phecodes from three EHR-linked biobanks with varying recruitment strategies: All of Us (AOU; n=244,071), Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI; n=81,243), and UK Biobank (UKB; n=401,167). Using 2019 National Health Interview Survey data, we constructed selection weights for AOU and MGI to be more representative of the US adult population. We used weights previously developed for UKB to represent the UKB-eligible population. We conducted four common descriptive and analytic tasks comparing unweighted and weighted results.

Results

For AOU and MGI, estimated phecode prevalences decreased after weighting (weighted-unweighted median phecode prevalence ratio [MPR]: 0.82 and 0.61), while UKB's estimates increased (MPR: 1.06). Weighting minimally impacted latent phenome dimensionality estimation. Comparing weighted versus unweighted PheWAS for colorectal cancer, the strongest associations remained unaltered and there was large overlap in significant hits. Weighting affected the estimated log-odds ratio for sex and colorectal cancer to align more closely with national registry-based estimates.

Discussion

Weighting had limited impact on dimensionality estimation and large-scale hypothesis testing but impacted prevalence and association estimation more. Results from untargeted association analyses should be followed by weighted analysis when effect size estimation is of interest for specific signals.

Conclusion

EHR-linked biobanks should report recruitment and selection mechanisms and provide selection weights with defined target populations. Researchers should consider their intended estimands, specify source and target populations, and weight EHR-linked biobank analyses accordingly.

Benzodiazepine Initiation and the Risk of Falls or Fall-Related Injuries in Older Adults Following Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background

Benzodiazepine use in older adults following acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is common, yet short-term safety concerning falls or fall-related injuries remains unexplored.

Methods

We emulated a hypothetical randomized trial of benzodiazepine use during the acute post stroke recovery period to assess incidence of falls or fall related injuries in older adults. Using linked data from the Get With the Guidelines Registry and Mass General Brigham's electronic health records, we selected patients aged 65 and older admitted for Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) between 2014 and 2021 with no documented prior stroke and no benzodiazepine prescriptions in the previous 3 months. Potential for immortal-time and confounding biases was addressed via separate inverse-probability weighting strategies.

Results

The study included 495 patients who initiated inpatient benzodiazepines within three days of admission and 2,564 who did not. After standardization, the estimated 10-day risk of falls or fall-related injuries was 694 events per 1000 (95% confidence interval CI: 676-709) for the benzodiazepine initiation strategy and 584 events per 1000 (95% CI: 575-595) for the non-initiation strategy. Subgroup analyses showed risk differences of 142 events per 1000 (95% CI: 111-165) and 85 events per 1000 (95% CI: 64-107) for patients aged 65 to 74 years and for those aged 75 years or older, respectively. Risk differences were 187 events per 1000 (95% CI: 159-206) for patients with minor (NIHSS≤ 4) AIS and 32 events per 1000 (95% CI: 10-58) for those with moderate-to-severe AIS.

Conclusions

Initiating inpatient benzodiazepines within three days of AIS is associated with an elevated 10-day risk of falls or fall-related injuries, particularly for patients aged 65 to 74 years and for those with minor strokes. This underscores the need for caution with benzodiazepines, especially among individuals likely to be ambulatory during the acute and sub-acute post-stroke period.

Comparative Safety of Antidepressants in Adults with CKD

BACKGROUND

Depression is prevalent in patients with CKD and is related to poor prognosis. Despite the widespread use of antidepressants in the CKD population, their safety remains unclear.

METHODS

We identified adults with CKD stages G3-5 (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 not treated with dialysis) and incident depression diagnosis during 2007-2019 from the Stockholm Creatinine Measurements project. Using the target trial emulation framework, we compared the following treatment strategies: ( 1 ) initiating versus not initiating antidepressants, ( 2 ) initiating mirtazapine versus selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and ( 3 ) initiating SSRIs with a lower dose versus a standard dose.

RESULTS

Of 7798 eligible individuals, 5743 (74%) initiated antidepressant treatment. Compared with noninitiation, initiation of antidepressants was associated with higher hazards of short-term outcomes, including hip fracture (hazard ratio [HR], 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88 to 1.74) and upper gastrointestinal bleeding (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.82 to 2.31), although not statistically significant. Initiation of antidepressants was not associated with long-term outcomes, including all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular event, CKD progression, and suicidal behavior. Compared with SSRIs, initiation of mirtazapine was associated with a lower hazard of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.96), but a higher hazard of mortality (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.22). Compared with the standard dose, initiation of SSRIs with a lower dose was associated with nonstatistically significantly lower hazards of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.34) and CKD progression (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.63 to 1.02), but a higher hazard of cardiac arrest (HR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.02 to 5.40).

CONCLUSIONS

Antidepressant treatment was associated with short-term adverse outcomes but not long-term outcomes in people with CKD and depression.

Smart Start - Designing Powerful Clinical Trials Using Pilot Study Data

BACKGROUND: Digital health interventions may be optimized before evaluation in a randomized clinical trial. Although many digital health interventions are deployed in pilot studies, the data collected are rarely used to refine the intervention and the subsequent clinical trials. METHODS: We leverage natural variation in patients eligible for a digital health intervention in a remote patient-monitoring pilot study to design and compare interventions for a subsequent randomized clinical trial. RESULTS: Our approach leverages patient heterogeneity to identify an intervention with twice the estimated effect size of an unoptimized intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Optimizing an intervention and clinical trial based on pilot data may improve efficacy and increase the probability of success. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04336969.)

Awaiting the verdict: Statins and the road ahead for primary prevention in older adults

This editorial comments on the article by Orkaby et al. in this issue.

Introduction to target trial emulation in rehabilitation: a systematic approach to emulate a randomized controlled trial using observational data

Rehabilitation providers and policymakers need valid evidence to make informed decisions about the healthcare needs of the population. Whenever possible, these decisions should be informed by randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, there are circumstances when evidence needs to be generated rapidly, or when RCTs are not ethical or feasible. These situations apply to studying the effects of complex interventions, including rehabilitation as defined by Cochrane Rehabilitation. Therefore, we explore using the target trial emulation framework by Hernán and colleagues to obtain valid estimates of the causal effects of rehabilitation when RCTs cannot be conducted. Target trial emulation is a framework guiding the design and analysis of non-randomized comparative effectiveness studies using observational data, by emulating a hypothetical RCT. In the context of rehabilitation, we outline steps for applying the target trial emulation framework using real world data, highlighting methodological considerations, limitations, potential mitigating strategies, and causal inference and counterfactual theory as foundational principles to estimating causal effects. Overall, we aim to strengthen methodological approaches used to estimate causal effects of rehabilitation when RCTs cannot be conducted.

Efficacy and effectiveness of antipsychotics in schizophrenia: network meta-analyses combining evidence from randomised controlled trials and real-world data

BACKGROUND

There is debate about the generalisability of results from randomised clinical trials (RCTs) to real-world settings. Studying outcomes of treatments for schizophrenia can shed light on this issue and inform treatment guidelines. We therefore compared the efficacy and effectiveness of antipsychotics for relapse prevention in schizophrenia and estimated overall treatment effects using all available RCT and real-world evidence.

METHODS

We conducted network meta-analyses using individual participant data from Swedish and Finnish national registries and aggregate data from RCTs. The target population was adults (age >18 and <65 years) with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder with stabilised symptoms. We analysed each registry separately to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for relapse within 6 months post-antipsychotic initiation as our main outcome. Interventions studied were antipsychotics, no antipsychotic use, and placebo. We compared HRs versus a reference drug (oral haloperidol) between registries, and between registry individuals who would be eligible and ineligible for RCTs, using the ratio of HRs. We synthesised evidence using network meta-analysis and compared results from our network meta-analysis of real-world data with our network meta-analysis of RCT data, including oral versus long-acting injectable (LAI) formulations. Finally, we conducted a joint real-world and RCT network meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

We included 90 469 individuals from the Swedish and Finnish registries (mean age 45·9 [SD 14·6] years; 43 025 [47·5%] women and 47 467 [52·5%] men, ethnicity data unavailable) and 10 091 individuals from 30 RCTs (mean age 39·6 years [SD 11·7]; 3724 [36·9%] women and 6367 [63·1%] men, 6022 White [59·7%]). We found good agreement in effectiveness of antipsychotics between Swedish and Finnish registries (HR ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·88-1·08). Drug effectiveness versus no antipsychotic was larger in RCT-eligible than RCT-ineligible individuals (HR ratio 1·40 [1·24-1·59]). Efficacy versus placebo in RCTs was larger than effectiveness versus no antipsychotic in real-world (HR ratio 2·58 [2·02-3·30]). We found no evidence of differences between effectiveness and efficacy for between-drug comparisons (HR ratio vs oral haloperidol 1·17 [0·83-1·65], where HR ratio >1 means superior effectiveness in real-world to RCTs), except for LAI versus oral comparisons (HR ratio 0·73 [0·53-0·99], indicating superior effectiveness in real-world data relative to RCTs). The real-world network meta-analysis showed clozapine was most effective, followed by olanzapine LAI. The RCT network meta-analysis exhibited heterogeneity and inconsistency. The joint real-world and RCT network meta-analysis identified olanzapine as the most efficacious antipsychotic amongst those present in both RCTs and the real world registries.

INTERPRETATION

LAI antipsychotics perform slightly better in the real world than according to RCTs. Otherwise, RCT evidence was in line with real-world evidence for most between-drug comparisons, but RCTs might overestimate effectiveness of antipsychotics observed in routine care settings. Our results further the understanding of the generalisability of RCT findings to clinical practice and can inform preferential prescribing guidelines.

FUNDING

None.

Amiodarone and pulmonary toxicity in atrial fibrillation: a nationwide Israeli study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Amiodarone-related interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the most severe adverse effect of amiodarone treatment. Most data on amiodarone-related ILD are derived from periods when amiodarone was given at higher doses than currently used.

METHODS

A nationwide population-based study was conducted among patients with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) between 1 December 1999 and 31 December 31 2021. Amiodarone-exposed patients were matched 1:1 with controls unexposed to amiodarone based on age, sex, ethnicity, and AF diagnosis duration. The final patient cohort included only matched pairs where amiodarone therapy was consistent throughout follow-up. Directed acyclic graphs and inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) modelling were used. Patients with either prior ILD or primary lung cancer (PLC) were excluded. The primary outcome was the incidence of any ILD. Secondary endpoints were death and PLC.

RESULTS

The final cohort included 6039 amiodarone-exposed patients who were matched with unexposed controls. The median age was 73.3 years, and 51.6% were women. After a mean follow-up of 4.2 years, ILD occurred in 242 (2.0%) patients. After IPTW, amiodarone exposure was not significantly associated with ILD [hazard ratio (HR): 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.97, 2.44, P = 0.09]. There was a trivial higher relative risk of ILD among amiodarone-exposed patients between Years 2 and 8 of follow-up [maximal risk ratio (RR): 1.019]. Primary lung cancer occurred in 97 (0.8%) patients. After IPTW, amiodarone was not associated with PLC (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 0.76, 2.08, P = 0.53). All-cause death occurred in 2185 (18.1%) patients. After IPTW, amiodarone was associated with reduced mortality risk (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.60, 0.72, P < 0.001). The results were consistent across a variety of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

In a contemporary AF population, low-dose amiodarone was associated with a trend towards increased risk of ILD (15%-45%) but a clinically negligible change in absolute risk (maximum of 1.8%), no increased risk of PLC, and a lower risk of all-cause mortality.

Accounting for Twins and Other Multiple Births in Perinatal Studies Conducted Using Healthcare Administration Data

The analysis of perinatal studies is complicated by twins and other multiple births even when they are not the exposure, outcome, or a confounder of interest. Common approaches to handling multiples in studies of infant outcomes include restriction to singletons, counting outcomes at the pregnancy-level (i.e., by counting if at least one twin experienced a binary outcome), or infant-level analysis including all infants and, typically, accounting for clustering of outcomes by using generalised estimating equations or mixed effects models. Several healthcare administration databases only support restriction to singletons or pregnancy-level approaches. For example, in MarketScan insurance claims data, diagnoses in twins are often assigned to a single infant identifier, thereby preventing ascertainment of infant-level outcomes among multiples. Different approaches correspond to different causal questions, produce different estimands, and often rely on different assumptions. We demonstrate the differences that can arise from these different approaches using Monte Carlo simulations, algebraic formulas, and an applied example. Furthermore, we provide guidance on the handling of multiples in perinatal studies when using healthcare administration data.

Why Stating Hypotheses in Grant Applications Is Unnecessary

This Viewpoint argues that a hypothesis-centric approach to writing grant applications is problematic and instead suggests that funding applications should be evaluated by their relevance and methodological quality rather than by qualitative assertions before the study is conducted.

Effectiveness of a bedaquiline, linezolid, clofazimine "core" for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

Rationale

Treatment outcomes may be compromised among patients with multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis with additional fluoroquinolone resistance. Evidence is needed to inform optimal treatment for these patients.

Objectives

We compared the effectiveness of longer individualized regimens comprised of bedaquiline for 5 to 8 months, linezolid, and clofazimine to those reinforced with at least 1 third-tier drug and/or longer duration of bedaquiline.

Methods

We emulated a target trial to compare the effectiveness of initiating and remaining on the core regimen to one of five regimens reinforced with (1) bedaquiline for ≥9 months, (2) bedaquiline for ≥9 months and delamanid, (3) imipenem, (4) a second-line injectable, or (5) delamanid and imipenem. We included patients in whom a fluoroquinolone was unlikely to be effective based on drug susceptibility testing and/or prior exposure. Our analysis consisted of cloning, censoring, and inverse-probability weighting to estimate the probability of successful treatment.

Measurements and Main Results

Adjusted probabilities of successful treatment were high across regimens, ranging from 0.75 (95%CI:0.61, 0.89) to 0.84 (95%CI:0.76, 0.91). We found no substantial evidence that any of the reinforced regimens improved effectiveness of the core regimen, with ratios of treatment success ranging from 1.01 for regimens reinforced with bedaquiline ≥9 months (95%CI:0.79, 1.28) and bedaquiline ≥9 months plus delamanid (95%CI:0.81, 1.31) to 1.11 for regimens reinforced by a second-line injectable (95%CI:0.92, 1.39) and delamanid and imipenem (95%CI:0.90, 1.41).

Conclusions

High treatment success underscores the effectiveness of regimens comprised of bedaquiline, linezolid, and clofazimine, highlighting the need for expanded access to these drugs.

Treatment in certified cancer centers is related to better survival in patients with colon and rectal cancer: evidence from a large German cohort study

BACKGROUND

Certified cancer centers aim to ensure high-quality care by establishing structural and procedural standards according to evidence-based guidelines. Despite the high clinical and health policy relevance, evidence from a nation-wide study for the effectiveness of care for colorectal cancer in certified centers vs. other hospitals in Germany is still missing.

METHODS

In a retrospective cohort study covering the years 2009-2017, we analyzed patient data using demographic information, diagnoses, and treatments from a nationwide statutory health insurance enriched with information on certification. We investigated whether patients with incident colon or rectal cancer did benefit from primary therapy in a certified cancer center. We used relative survival analysis taking into account mortality data of the German population and adjustment for patient and hospital characteristics via Cox regression with shared frailty for patients in hospitals with and without certification.

RESULTS

The cohorts for colon and rectal cancer consisted of 109,518 and 51,417 patients, respectively, treated in a total of 1052 hospitals. 37.2% of patients with colon and 42.9% of patients with rectal cancer were treated in a certified center. Patient age, sex, comorbidities, secondary malignoma, and distant metastases were similar across groups (certified/non-certified) for both colon and rectal cancer. Relative survival analysis showed significantly better survival of patients treated in a certified center, with 68.3% (non-certified hospitals 65.8%) 5-year survival for treatment of colon cancer in certified (p < 0.001) and 65.0% (58.8%) 5-year survival in case of rectal cancer (p < 0.001), respectively. Cox regression with adjustment for relevant covariates yielded a lower hazard of death for patients treated in certified centers for both colon (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.89-0.95) and rectal cancer (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95). The results remained robust in a series of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This large cohort study yields new important evidence that patients with colorectal cancer have a better chance of survival if treated in a certified cancer center. Certification thus provides one powerful means to improve the quality of care for colorectal cancer. To decrease the burden of disease, more patients should thus receive cancer care in a certified center.

Quality Measure Adherence and Oral Health Outcomes in Children

Importance

Process-based quality measures are generally intended to promote evidence-based practices that have been proven to improve outcomes. However, due to lack of standardized implementation of diagnostic codes in dentistry, assessing the association between process and oral health outcomes has been challenging.

Objective

To estimate the association of adhering to dental quality measures with patient oral health outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Using a target trial emulation, a causal inference framework, this retrospective cohort study estimated the difference in the risk of developing tooth decay between US children who adhered to process-based dental quality measures (receiving topical fluoride and sealant [treated groups]) and those who did not (control groups). Electronic health records of US children and adolescents aged 0 to 18 years from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020, were used. To emulate random treatment assignment based on baseline confounders, coarsened exact matching was used to produce covariate balance between the treated and control groups. A time-to-event regression model produced effect estimates, adjusting for time-varying covariates. Near-far matching was used to account for unmeasured confounders as a sensitivity analysis. Data were analyzed from May 1 to August 7, 2023.

Exposures

Adherence to dental quality measures.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incidence of tooth decay.

Results

Among 69 212 US children aged between 0 and 18 years (mean [SD] age, 10.2 [5.0] years; 49.5% male, 50.4% female, and 0.1% unknown or transgender), 1930 (2.8%) were Asian, 2038 (2.9%) were Black, 8667 (12.5%) were Hispanic, 33 632 (48.6%) were White, and 22 945 (33.2%) were multiracial, other, or missing racial and ethnic group identification. Relative to control individuals, treated individuals were more likely to be at elevated risk of caries (fluoride measure: 16 453 [76.5%] vs 15 236 [39.8%]; sealant measure: 2264 [54.6%] vs 997 [44.0%]) and have regular dental visits (fluoride measure: 21 498 [100%] vs 13 741 [35.9%]; sealant measure: 1623 [39.2%] vs 871 [38.4%]). Adherence to quality measures was associated with reduced risk of tooth decay with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.78- 0.86) for fluoride and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.76-0.97) for sealant in the matched cohort. Benefits of adhering to quality measures were greater among children at elevated vs low risk and with public vs commercial insurance for both measures.

Conclusions

In this cohort study, adhering to dental quality measures was associated with reduced risk of tooth decay, and benefits were greater among children at elevated risk and with public insurance. These findings provide insights in facilitating targeted application of quality measures or developing more tailored quality improvement initiatives.

Early Switch From Intravenous to Oral Antibiotics for Patients With Uncomplicated Gram-Negative Bacteremia

Importance

Gram-negative bacteremia is a global health concern, and optimizing the transition from intravenous (IV) to oral antibiotics is a critical step in improving patient treatment and resource utilization.

Objective

To assess the association of switching to oral antibiotics within 4 days after initial blood culture with 90-day all-cause mortality compared with prolonged IV antibiotic treatment for patients with uncomplicated gram-negative bacteremia.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study conducted using the target trial emulation framework included observational data from adults with uncomplicated gram-negative bacteremia in 4 hospitals in Copenhagen, Denmark, from January 1, 2018, through December 31, 2021. The duration of follow-up was 90 days. Eligibility criteria included a blood culture positive for growth of gram-negative bacteria, clinical stability within 4 days of initial blood culture, an available susceptibility report on day 4, and initiation of appropriate empirical IV antibiotic treatment within 24 hours of blood culture.

Exposure

Switching to oral antibiotics within 4 days after initial blood culture compared with continuing IV antibiotic treatment for at least 5 days after initial blood culture.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was 90-day all-cause mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to adjust for confounding. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses were performed using pooled logistic regression to estimate absolute risk, risk difference (RD), and risk ratio (RR); 95% CIs were computed using bootstrapping.

Results

A total of 914 individuals were included in the target trial emulation analysis (512 [56.0%] male; median age, 74.5 years [IQR, 63.3-83.2 years]); 433 (47.4%) transitioned early to oral antibiotic treatment, and 481 (52.6%) received prolonged IV treatment. Ninety-nine individuals (10.8%) died during follow-up. The proportion of individuals who died was higher in the group receiving prolonged IV treatment (69 [14.3%] vs 30 [6.9%]). In the intention-to-treat analysis, 90-day all-cause mortality risk was 9.1% (95% CI, 6.7%-11.6%) for the early-switch group and 11.7% (95% CI, 9.6%-13.8%) for the group receiving prolonged IV treatment; the RD was -2.5% (95% CI, -5.7% to 0.7%) and RR was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.60-1.10). In the per-protocol analysis, the RD was -0.1% (95% CI, -3.4% to 3.1%) and RR was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.70-1.40).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of uncomplicated gram-negative bacteremia, early transition to oral antibiotics within 4 days of initial blood culture was associated with 90-day all-cause mortality risk comparable to that of continuing IV antibiotic treatment and may be an effective alternative to prolonged IV treatment.