The Influence of Control on Belief in Conspiracy Theories: Conceptual and Applied Extensions

The entertainment value of conspiracy theories

Many citizens around the globe believe conspiracy theories. Why are conspiracy theories so appealing? Here, we propose that conspiracy theories elicit intense emotions independent of emotional valence. People therefore find conspiracy theories entertaining - that is, narratives that people perceive as interesting, exciting, and attention-grabbing - and such entertainment appraisals are positively associated with belief in them. Five studies supported these ideas. Participants were exposed to either a conspiratorial or a non-conspiratorial text about the Notre Dame fire (Study 1) or the death of Jeffrey Epstein (preregistered Study 2). The conspiratorial text elicited stronger entertainment appraisals and intense emotions (independent of emotional valence) than the non-conspiratorial text; moreover, entertainment appraisals mediated the effects of the manipulation on conspiracy beliefs. Study 3 indicated that participants endorsed stronger conspiracy beliefs when an election event was described in an entertaining rather than a boring manner. Subsequent findings revealed that both organisational (Study 4) and societal conspiracy beliefs (Study 5) are positively associated with sensation seeking - a trait characterised by a preference for exciting and intense experiences. We conclude that one reason why people believe conspiracy theories is because they find them entertaining.

Willingness to vaccinate against SARS-CoV-2: The role of reasoning biases and conspiracist ideation

BACKGR1OUND: Widespread vaccine hesitancy and refusal complicate containment of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Extant research indicates that biased reasoning and conspiracist ideation discourage vaccination. However, causal pathways from these constructs to vaccine hesitancy and refusal remain underspecified, impeding efforts to intervene and increase vaccine uptake.

METHOD

554 participants who denied prior SARS-CoV-2 vaccination completed self-report measures of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine intentions, conspiracist ideation, and constructs from the Health Belief Model of medical decision-making (such as perceived vaccine dangerousness) along with tasks measuring reasoning biases (such as those concerning data gathering behavior). Cutting-edge machine learning algorithms (Greedy Fast Causal Inference) and psychometric network analysis were used to elucidate causal pathways to (and from) vaccine intentions.

RESULTS

Results indicated that a bias toward reduced data gathering during reasoning may cause paranoia, increasing the perceived dangerousness of vaccines and thereby reducing willingness to vaccinate. Existing interventions that target data gathering and paranoia therefore hold promise for encouraging vaccination. Additionally, reduced willingness to vaccinate was identified as a likely cause of belief in conspiracy theories, subverting the common assumption that the opposite causal relation exists. Finally, perceived severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection and perceived vaccine dangerousness (but not effectiveness) were potential direct causes of willingness to vaccinate, providing partial support for the Health Belief Model's applicability to SARS-CoV-2 vaccine decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

These insights significantly advance our understanding of the underpinnings of vaccine intentions and should scaffold efforts to prepare more effective interventions on hesitancy for deployment during future pandemics.

Conspiracy mentality and political orientation across 26 countries

People differ in their general tendency to endorse conspiracy theories (that is, conspiracy mentality). Previous research yielded inconsistent findings on the relationship between conspiracy mentality and political orientation, showing a greater conspiracy mentality either among the political right (a linear relation) or amongst both the left and right extremes (a curvilinear relation). We revisited this relationship across two studies spanning 26 countries (combined N = 104,253) and found overall evidence for both linear and quadratic relations, albeit small and heterogeneous across countries. We also observed stronger support for conspiracy mentality among voters of opposition parties (that is, those deprived of political control). Nonetheless, the quadratic effect of political orientation remained significant when adjusting for political control deprivation. We conclude that conspiracy mentality is associated with extreme left- and especially extreme right-wing beliefs, and that this non-linear relation may be strengthened by, but is not reducible to, deprivation of political control.

Finding Someone to Blame: The Link Between COVID-19 Conspiracy Beliefs, Prejudice, Support for Violence, and Other Negative Social Outcomes

One of the appeals of conspiracy theories in times of crises is that they provide someone to blame for what has happened. Thereby, they increase distrust, negative feelings, and hostility toward implicated actors, whether those are powerful social outgroups or one's own government representatives. Two studies reported here examine associations of COVID-19 conspiracy theories with prejudice, support for violence, and other and negative social outcomes. In Study 1 (N = 501), the endorsement of the more specific conspiracy theories about the alleged role of China was associated with more prejudiced views of Chinese and Italian people. In Study 2 (N = 1024), lowered trust in government regulations and increased hostility associated with the COVID-19 and generic conspiracy beliefs were correlated with justification of and willingness to engage in non-compliance with regulations, violent attacks on 5G masts, and anti-government protests. Across both of the studies, higher exposure to news about COVID-19 was associated with lower endorsement of conspiracy theories, but also with increased feelings of anxiety and lack of control, which in turn were correlated with higher COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs endorsement. We highlight the potential social problems which are associated with the wide-spread endorsement of COVID-19 conspiracy theories.

A neurocognitive model of ideological thinking

Ideological behavior has traditionally been viewed as a product of social forces. Nonetheless, an emerging science suggests that ideological worldviews can also be understood in terms of neural and cognitive principles. The article proposes a neurocognitive model of ideological thinking, arguing that ideological worldviews may be manifestations of individuals' perceptual and cognitive systems. This model makes two claims. First, there are neurocognitive antecedents to ideological thinking: the brain's low-level neurocognitive dispositions influence its receptivity to ideological doctrines. Second, there are neurocognitive consequences to ideological engagement: strong exposure and adherence to ideological doctrines can shape perceptual and cognitive systems. This article details the neurocognitive model of ideological thinking and synthesizes the empirical evidence in support of its claims. The model postulates that there are bidirectional processes between the brain and the ideological environment, and so it can address the roles of situational and motivational factors in ideologically motivated action. This endeavor highlights that an interdisciplinary neurocognitive approach to ideologies can facilitate biologically informed accounts of the ideological brain and thus reveal who is most susceptible to extreme and authoritarian ideologies. By investigating the relationships between low-level perceptual processes and high-level ideological attitudes, we can develop a better grasp of our collective history as well as the mechanisms that may structure our political futures.

Anxiety, resilience and local conditions: A cross-cultural investigation in the time of Covid-19

The spread of Covid‐19 is a worldwide phenomenon, unprecedented in modern times. Differences among countries in such matters are of interest as they provide a unique window to understand human behaviour and culture. The aim of this study is to examine cross‐cultural differences in state anxiety, and any moderating role of resilience and social contact. Participants from three countries were recruited: Ireland (n = 449), Italy (n = 324) and Spain (n = 471). While these countries share many characteristics, it was anticipated that their experiences might differ because of pronounced differences in governmental measures and the local severity and history of the pandemic at the time of data collection. Results indicated that: (a) Resilience was negatively related to state anxiety both bivariately and multivariately; (b) number of hours outside per week did not predict state anxiety but was negatively correlated with fear of contagious diseases in the essential workers from the Irish sample; (c) national measures had a moderating role in the relationship between resilience and state anxiety; and (d) social contact, in terms of numbers of written, audio or visual interactions, was not a statistically significant predictor of state anxiety. These results may help to understand the adverse impact on mental health.

Examining conspiracy beliefs and COVID-19 in four countries: The role of disgust towards the political system and implications for prosocial behavior

Since late 2019, the coronavirus SARS-COV-2 responsible for the COVID-19 disease has continued to spread across different regions of the world. As a result, governments have been implementing measures for controlling the disease which rely on people's cooperation. In this research, we considered predictors and implications of people's beliefs that they “haven’t been told the ‘whole story’ about COVID-19.” Specifically, we examined the role of disgust towards the political system in predicting conspiratorial tendencies across four countries, in Europe (Italy and the UK), North America (the USA), and Asia (South Korea). In addition, we investigated the implications of conspiratorial beliefs for individuals’ intentions to engage in prosocial cooperative behavior. In line with the idea that feelings of disgust towards the political system may indicate that people perceive the system as violating core norms, results showed that disgust was associated with stronger conspiratorial tendencies. Individuals’ conspiratorial tendencies were in turn associated with lower intentions to help others during the pandemic. Results were broadly consistent across the countries tested. Directions for future research are discussed.

To get vaccinated or not? Social psychological factors associated with vaccination intent for COVID-19

Pandemic control not only requires effective COVID-19 vaccines but also that they are accepted by at least 80% of the population. For this reason, understanding the social psychological variables associated with vaccination intent is essential to achieve herd immunity. Drawing on the theory of reasoned action, this study seeks to analyze vaccination intent using the beliefs about vaccine effectiveness, conspiracy theories, and injunctive norms as predictors. A non-probabilistic national online survey was conducted during December 2020. A sample of 1,033 people in Chile answered a questionnaire with the study variables. Using structural equation models, it was found that vaccination intent was explained in 62.1% by beliefs about vaccine effectiveness and injunctive norms, controlling for age, political orientation, socioeconomic status, educational level, and gender. Specifically, beliefs about vaccine effectiveness are based on people's experience with previous immunization processes, which predict vaccination intent. Regarding injunctive norms, they act by influencing and encouraging vaccination by seeking the approval of significant others. Contrary to expected, conspiracy beliefs were not directly associated with the intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccine but were highly related to lower beliefs about vaccine effectiveness. This study suggests that to enhance the vaccination intent, socio-psychological and structural variables need to be considered.

Injustice Without Evidence: The Unique Role of Conspiracy Theories in Social Justice Research

Conspiracy theories are widespread and have a profound impact on society. The present contribution proposes that conspiracy theories are explanatory narratives that necessarily contain justice judgments, as they include attributions of blame and accusations of unethical or criminal conduct. Conspiratorial narratives also are mental simulations, however, and may elicit genuine feelings of injustice also without evidence of actual malpractice. Indeed, conspiracy theories sometimes describe unfair events that are unlikely to have occurred, unethical authorities that might not actually exist, and so on. Here I propose two complementary processes that stimulate belief in evidence-free conspiracy theories: (1) Existential threats instigate biased mental processing and motivated reasoning, that jointly promote an alternative perception of reality; and (2) group allegiances shape how people perceive, interpret, and remember facts to highlight the immoral qualities of competing outgroups. Due to these processes, conspiracy theories elicit a set of distinct reactions such as poor health choices and rejection of science. Moreover, evidence-free conspiracy theories require interventions beyond traditional approaches to install justice principles, such as debunking falsehoods and reducing polarized intergroup distinctions. I conclude that the scientific study of conspiracy theories is part of, and has a unique place in, social justice research.

From anxiety to control: Mask-wearing, perceived marketplace influence, and emotional well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic

Mask-wearing has been one of the most prominent, conflicted, and deeply divided issues in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across two studies, we seek to understand how beliefs and behaviors around mask-wearing are associated with the relationship between anxiety about the coronavirus and feelings of control over one's health outcomes during the pandemic. In Study 1, we find that beliefs in the response efficacy of mask-wearing moderate the relationship between anxiety and control. Study 2 extends these results by investigating the underlying process. Specifically, we find that the relationship between anxiety and control is mediated by self-reported mask-wearing behavior and that the relationship between anxiety and mask-wearing behavior is moderated by consumers' perceived marketplace influence. These findings have important public policy and marketing implications in the context of physical, emotional, and economic well-being.

Irrational Beliefs about COVID-19: A Scoping Review

Since the emergence of the recent Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) and its spread as a pandemic, there has been a parallel spread of false and misleading information, known as an infodemic. The COVID-19 infodemic has induced distrust in scientific communities, governments, institutions and the population, and a confidence crisis that has led to harmful health behaviours, also impacting on mental health. The aim of this study is to provide a scoping review of the scientific literature about COVID-19-related misinformation and conspiracy theories, focusing on the construction of a conceptual framework which is useful for the interpretation of the conspiracy theory phenomenon surrounding COVID-19, and its consequences. Particular socio-environmental conditions (i.e., low educational level, younger age), psychological processes and attitudes (such as low levels of epistemic trust, the avoidance of uncertainty, extraversion, collective narcissism, and a conspiracy-prone mindset), and contextual factors (e.g., high levels of self-perceived risk and anxiety) seem to underpin the adherence to beliefs that are not solely the domain of paranoids and extremists but a widespread phenomenon that has caused important health, social and political consequences.

An analysis of the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness-to-pay for commodities during the COVID-19 pandemic

The novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) has had a significant impact on the global retail market. Nonetheless, consumers will eventually return to the market once the pandemic is effectively controlled. Therefore, it is critical to consider which features closely linked to COVID-19 may affect consumer behavior. The present study thus addresses this gap by investigating the relationship of risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 with an important component of consumer behavior-namely, willingness-to-pay (WTP)-and further explores the underlying mechanisms behind this relationship. Data collected from 480 Chinese participants were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Results showed that those with a greater risk perception regarding COVID-19 were more likely to exhibit a higher WTP for various commodities, which can be driven by awe and perceived loss of control induced by COVID-19. The present study delineates the effect that public health emergencies have on the consumption intentions of the general public.

The usual suspects: How psychological motives and thinking styles predict the endorsement of well-known and COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs

Research on belief in conspiracy theories identified many predictors but often failed to investigate them together. In the present study, we tested how the most important predictors of beliefs in conspiracy theories explain endorsing COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 conspiracy theories and conspiracy mentality. Apart from these three measures of conspiratorial thinking, participants (N = 354) completed several measures of epistemic, existential, and social psychological motives, as well as cognitive processing variables. While many predictors had significant correlations, only three consistently explained conspiratorial beliefs when included in one model: higher spirituality (specifically eco-awareness factor), higher narcissism, and lower analytical thinking. Compared to the other two conspiratorial measures, predictors less explained belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories, but this depended on items' content. We conclude that the same predictors apply to belief in both COVID and non-COVID conspiracies and identify New Age spirituality as an important contributor to such beliefs.

Anxious and Angry: Emotional Responses to the COVID-19 Threat

The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic elicits a vast amount of anxiety. In the current study, we investigated how anxiety related to COVID-19 is associated with support for and compliance with governmental hygiene measures, and how these are influenced by populist attitudes, anger at the government, and conspiracy mentalities. We conducted an online survey in April 2020 in four different countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK; N = 2,031) using a cross-sectional design. Results showed that (1) anxiety related to COVID-19 is associated with conspiracy beliefs, anger at the government, and populist attitudes, and (2) support for and compliance with hygiene measures are both positively predicted by anxiety related to COVID-19; however, (3) support for hygiene measures is also predicted by populist attitudes and negatively by conspiracy mentalities, whereas compliance with hygiene measures is more strongly predicted by anger at transgressors (anger at people transgressing the hygiene measures). Consequently, although anxiety related to COVID-19 concerns the health of individual people, it also has political and social implications: anxiety is associated with an increase in anger, either at transgressors or the government.

Conspiratorial Thinking During COVID-19: The Roles of Paranoia, Delusion-Proneness, and Intolerance of Uncertainty

The COVID-19 global pandemic has left many feeling a sense of profound uncertainty about their world, safety, and livelihood. Sources espousing misinformation and conspiracy theories frequently offer information that can help make sense of this uncertainty. Individuals high in intolerance of uncertainty (IU) may be particularly impacted by the impoverished epistemic environment and may thus be more drawn to conspiratorial thinking (CT). In the present work, we show across 2 studies (N = 519) that COVID-19-specific CT is associated with higher levels of IU as well as delusion-proneness, and paranoia. Furthermore, delusion-proneness and paranoia explained the relationship between IU and CT and emerged as independent partial correlates of CT even when controlling for other facets of schizotypy. In contrast, anxiety did not explain the relationship between IU and CT. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of individual differences in IU, delusion-proneness and paranoia in the development of CT in the context of the acute uncertainty of a global crisis, in which conspiracy theories are more prevalent and salient. Informational intervention designs may benefit from leveraging the body of work demonstrating the efficacy of targeting IU to incite meaningful changes in thinking.

Who Is Willing to Get Vaccinated? A Study into the Psychological, Socio-Demographic, and Cultural Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccination Intentions

Crucial to the success of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign is the rate of people who adhere to it. This study aimed to investigate the reasons underlying people’s willingness to get vaccinated in a sample of Italian adults, considering the effects of different individual characteristics and psychological variables upon positive vs. negative/hesitant vaccination intentions, as well as subjects’ self-reported motivations for such intentions. An anonymous cross-sectional survey was distributed online in February 2021. The results showed that trust in science, number of vaccinations received in 2019, and belief that COVID-19 is more severe than the common flu, were associated with positive vaccination intentions. “Chance externality” health locus of control showed both direct and indirect effects upon positive vaccination intentions. Anxiety symptoms and participants’ perceived psychological status also showed indirect positive effects. Subjects’ self-reported motivations varied interestingly across positive vs. negative/hesitant intentions. Implications of these findings for identifying effective pro-vaccination messages are discussed in the final section of the paper.

Agent Based Model of Anti-Vaccination Movements: Simulations and Comparison with Empirical Data

Background: A realistic description of the social processes leading to the increasing reluctance to various forms of vaccination is a very challenging task. This is due to the complexity of the psychological and social mechanisms determining the positioning of individuals and groups against vaccination and associated activities. Understanding the role played by social media and the Internet in the current spread of the anti-vaccination (AV) movement is of crucial importance. Methods: We present novel, long-term Big Data analyses of Internet activity connected with the AV movement for such different societies as the US and Poland. The datasets we analyzed cover multiyear periods preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting the behavior of vaccine related Internet activity with high temporal resolution. To understand the empirical observations, in particular the mechanism driving the peaks of AV activity, we propose an Agent Based Model (ABM) of the AV movement. The model includes the interplay between multiple driving factors: contacts with medical practitioners and public vaccination campaigns, interpersonal communication, and the influence of the infosphere (social networks, WEB pages, user comments, etc.). The model takes into account the difference between the rational approach of the pro-vaccination information providers and the largely emotional appeal of anti-vaccination propaganda. Results: The datasets studied show the presence of short-lived, high intensity activity peaks, much higher than the low activity background. The peaks are seemingly random in size and time separation. Such behavior strongly suggests a nonlinear nature for the social interactions driving the AV movement instead of the slow, gradual growth typical of linear processes. The ABM simulations reproduce the observed temporal behavior of the AV interest very closely. For a range of parameters, the simulations result in a relatively small fraction of people refusing vaccination, but a slight change in critical parameters (such as willingness to post anti-vaccination information) may lead to a catastrophic breakdown of vaccination support in the model society, due to nonlinear feedback effects. The model allows the effectiveness of strategies combating the anti-vaccination movement to be studied. An increase in intensity of standard pro-vaccination communications by government agencies and medical personnel is found to have little effect. On the other hand, focused campaigns using the Internet and social media and copying the highly emotional and narrative-focused format used by the anti-vaccination activists can diminish the AV influence. Similar effects result from censoring and taking down anti-vaccination communications by social media platforms. The benefit of such tactics might, however, be offset by their social cost, for example, the increased polarization and potential to exploit it for political goals, or increased 'persecution' and 'martyrdom' tropes.

Examining a domain-specific link between perceived control and conspiracy beliefs: a brief report in the context of COVID-19

Although anecdotal evidence suggests that control-threatening situations are associated with an increase in conspiracy beliefs, existing research does not support this "compensatory control" hypothesis. In the current study, we test a more refined hypothesis: that the link between control threat and conspiracy beliefs is domain specific, such that perceived control in a particular domain should lead to conspiracy beliefs pertaining to that domain only. Moreover, given that conspiracy beliefs are stigmatized (i.e., not socially acceptable), we propose that they should be endorsed only when other compensatory systems are frustrated. We test these ideas in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants from North Macedonia and New Zealand, who differed in perceived government effectiveness, filled in a questionnaire measuring domain-specific and domain-general perceived control, as well as domain-specific and domain-general conspiracy beliefs. As expected, domain specificity of the control threat predicted domain-specific conspiracy beliefs in the Macedonian group only. The results have implication for compensatory control theory, suggesting that the compensatory process may not always be as fluid as believed.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-021-01977-0.

Characteristics of Antivaccine Messages on Social Media: Systematic Review

Background

Supporters of the antivaccination movement can easily spread information that is not scientifically proven on social media. Therefore, learning more about their posts and activities is instrumental in effectively reacting and responding to the false information they publish, which is aimed at discouraging people from taking vaccines.

Objective

This study aims to gather, assess, and synthesize evidence related to the current state of knowledge about antivaccine social media users’ web-based activities.

Methods

We systematically reviewed English-language papers from 3 databases (Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed). A data extraction form was established, which included authors, year of publication, specific objectives, study design, comparison, and outcomes of significance. We performed an aggregative narrative synthesis of the included studies.

Results

The search strategy retrieved 731 records in total. After screening for duplicates and eligibility, 18 articles were included in the qualitative synthesis. Although most of the authors analyzed text messages, some of them studied images or videos. In addition, although most of the studies examined vaccines in general, 5 focused specifically on human papillomavirus vaccines, 2 on measles vaccines, and 1 on influenza vaccines. The synthesized studies dealt with the popularity of provaccination and antivaccination content, the style and manner in which messages about vaccines were formulated for the users, a range of topics concerning vaccines (harmful action, limited freedom of choice, and conspiracy theories), and the role and activity of bots in the dissemination of these messages in social media.

Conclusions

Proponents of the antivaccine movement use a limited number of arguments in their messages; therefore, it is possible to prepare publications clarifying doubts and debunking the most common lies. Public health authorities should continuously monitor social media to quickly find new antivaccine arguments and then create information campaigns for both health professionals and other users.

Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial of an Intervention to Improve Coping with Intersectional Stigma and Medication Adherence Among HIV-Positive Latinx Sexual Minority Men

We developed and pilot-tested an eight-session community-based cognitive behavior therapy group intervention to improve coping with intersectional stigma, address medical mistrust, and improve antiretroviral treatment adherence. Seventy-six HIV-positive Latinx sexual minority men (SMM; 38 intervention, 38 wait-list control) completed surveys at baseline, and 4- and 7-months post-baseline. Adherence was electronically monitored. Intention-to-treat, repeated-measures regressions showed improved adherence in the intervention vs. control group from baseline to follow-up [electronically monitored: b (95% CI) 9.24 (- 0.55, 19.03), p = 0.06; self-reported: b (95% CI) 4.50 (0.70, 8.30), p = .02]. Intervention participants showed marginally decreased negative religious coping beliefs in response to stigma [b (95% CI) = - 0.18 (- 0.37, 0.01), p = .06], and significantly lower medical mistrust [b (95% CI) = - 0.47 (- 0.84, - 0.09), p = .02]. Our intervention holds promise for improving HIV outcomes by empowering Latinx SMM to leverage innate resilience resources when faced with stigma.ClinicalTrials.gov ID (TRN): NCT03432819, 01/31/2018.

Covid-19 conspiracy beliefs and containment-related behaviour: The role of political trust

The roles of conspiracy beliefs and political trust for public health behaviour have seldomly been studied prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we tested whether conspiracy beliefs affect containment-related behaviour in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic and whether this relationship is mediated by political trust, preference for saving the economy or for saving lives. The data were collected at two time points, at the beginning of the epidemic and after the state of emergency was introduced. The sample consisted of 790 adults from Serbia (349 at time 1 and 441 at time 2), of which around 60% were female, with a mean age of around 33. The results indicate that holding more conspiracy beliefs is related to less adherence to containment-related behaviour, both directly and indirectly, via decreased political trust. Preference for saving lives has a direct effect on containment-related behaviour, while preference for saving economy plays no important role in this relationship, although it has a negative zero-order association with containment-related behaviour. The findings are interpreted in light of the importance of governmental pandemic management for containing, i.e. preventing the spread of infectious diseases.

When we are worried, what are we thinking? Anxiety, lack of control, and conspiracy beliefs amidst the COVID-19 pandemic

Societal crises and stressful events are associated with an upsurge of conspiracy beliefs that may help people to tackle feelings of lack of control. In our study (N = 783), we examined whether people with higher feelings of anxiety and lack of control early in the COVID-19 pandemic endorse more conspiracy theories. Our results show that a higher perception of risk of COVID-19 and lower trust in institutions' response to the pandemic were related to feelings of anxiety and lack of control. Feeling the lack of control, but not anxiety, independently predicted COVID-19 conspiracy theory endorsement. Importantly, COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs were strongly correlated with generic conspiracy and pseudoscientific beliefs, which were likewise associated with the feeling of lack of control and lower trust in institutions. The results highlight that considering people's emotional responses to the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for our understanding of the spread of conspiracy and pseudoscientific beliefs.

Adjusting to the canon

The purpose of the present study is to explore the organization of communicative memory among Hungarians. We were also interested in the factors possibly influencing the composition of communicative memory, such as conspiracy beliefs and system justification. The study involved 339 participants who were asked to name the three historical events that have occurred during the lifetime of people they personally knew and had the most significant impact on their country. A latent class analysis was conducted to explore possible associations of event choice with conspiracy beliefs and system justification. The results showed that the most frequently selected events partly corresponded to the Hungarian national historical canon, but progressive events significant on a European scale were also frequently nominated. The latent class analysis revealed two historical profiles. One was characterized by a progressive and Eurocentric view of history, whereas the other showed a canonical historical view with victimhood orientation. The analysis showed that individuals who believe in conspiracy theories were more likely to select events corresponding to the national historical canon, whereas system justification was unrelated to event choice. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of cultural memory and the measured individual constructs in the forming of communicative memory.

Medical disinformation and the unviable nature of COVID-19 conspiracy theories

The coronavirus pandemic has seen a marked rise in medical disinformation across social media. A variety of claims have garnered considerable traction, including the assertion that COVID is a hoax or deliberately manufactured, that 5G frequency radiation causes coronavirus, and that the pandemic is a ruse by big pharmaceutical companies to profiteer off a vaccine. An estimated 30% of some populations subscribe some form of COVID medico-scientific conspiracy narratives, with detrimental impacts for themselves and others. Consequently, exposing the lack of veracity of these claims is of considerable importance. Previous work has demonstrated that historical medical and scientific conspiracies are highly unlikely to be sustainable. In this article, an expanded model for a hypothetical en masse COVID conspiracy is derived. Analysis suggests that even under ideal circumstances for conspirators, commonly encountered conspiratorial claims are highly unlikely to endure, and would quickly be exposed. This work also explores the spectrum of medico-scientific acceptance, motivations behind propagation of falsehoods, and the urgent need for the medical and scientific community to anticipate and counter the emergence of falsehoods.

To what extent are conspiracy theorists concerned for self versus others? A COVID-19 test case

We examined whether people who are prone to believe COVID-19 conspiracy theories are characterised by an especially strong concern for others or an especially strong concern for the self, and whether these orientations are associated with willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine. We surveyed 4,245 participants from eight nations; three months later we re-contacted 1,262 participants from three nations. Belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories was related to greater concerns about one's own safety, and lower concerns about the safety of close others. Furthermore, conspiracist ideation at Wave 1 predicted reluctance to take a COVID-19 vaccine at Wave 2, mediated through relative concern for self versus others. In sum, people who are high in conspiracy beliefs have relatively higher concern for the self relative to others, with troubling implications for public health.

COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: Relations with anxiety, quality of life, and schemas

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a worldwide mental health crisis. Conspiracy beliefs regarding the origin of COVID-19 are prevalent, however, mental health consequences and factors associated with the likelihood of endorsing COVID-19 conspiracy theories have not yet been examined. The current study examined predictors and mental health consequences of conspiracy beliefs.

Methods

Participants in Canada and the United States were surveyed via Amazon Mechanical Turk in April 2020 (N = 797), approximately one month after the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic, and again in May 2020 (N = 395).

Results

Approximately half of the sample (49.7%) believed at least one conspiracy theory. Greater Covid-19 conspiracy beliefs were associated with more anxiety at follow up but not quality of life. Religiosity/spirituality, not knowing someone at high-risk for COVID-19, and non-white ethnicity were associated with greater conspiracy beliefs. Lower positive other-schemas were associated with greater conspiracy beliefs, only at low and moderate levels of positive self-schemas.

Conclusions

There is substantial conspiracy belief endorsement during the COVID-19 pandemic and conspiracy beliefs are associated with anxiety, but not quality of life. Positive self-schemas protect against believing conspiracy theories and interventions to increase positive self-schemas may be effective to reduce the negative effects of conspiracy beliefs.

COVID-19 Related Medical Mistrust, Health Impacts, and Potential Vaccine Hesitancy Among Black Americans Living With HIV

BACKGROUND

Medical mistrust, a result of systemic racism, is prevalent among Black Americans and may play a role in COVID-19 inequities. In a convenience sample of HIV-positive Black Americans, we examined associations of COVID-19-related medical mistrust with COVID-19 vaccine and COVID-19 treatment hesitancy and negative impacts of COVID-19 on antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence.

METHODS

Participants were 101 HIV-positive Black Americans (age: M = 50.3 years; SD = 11.5; 86% cisgender men; 77% sexual minority) enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of a community-based ART adherence intervention in Los Angeles County, CA. From May to July 2020, participants completed telephone interviews on negative COVID-19 impacts, general COVID-19 mistrust (eg, about the government withholding information), COVID-19 vaccine and treatment hesitancy, and trust in COVID-19 information sources. Adherence was monitored electronically with the Medication Event Monitoring System.

RESULTS

Nearly all participants (97%) endorsed at least one general COVID-19 mistrust belief, and more than half endorsed at least one COVID-19 vaccine or treatment hesitancy belief. Social service and health care providers were the most trusted sources. Greater COVID-19 mistrust was related to greater vaccine and treatment hesitancy [b (SE) = 0.85 (0.14), P < 0.0001 and b (SE) = 0.88 (0.14), P < 0.0001, respectively]. Participants experiencing more negative COVID-19 impacts showed lower ART adherence, assessed among a subset of 49 participants [b (SE) = -5.19 (2.08), P = 0.02].

DISCUSSION

To prevent widening health inequities, health care providers should engage with communities to tailor strategies to overcome mistrust and deliver evidence-based information, to encourage COVID-19 vaccine and treatment uptake.

Perceived lack of control and conspiracy theory beliefs in the wake of political strife and natural disaster

While lack of control is one plausible explanation for conspiracy beliefs, the experimental evidence is mixed. We present two naturalistic studies that offer some limited support for the control hypothesis. In the first, Macedonians living in (North) Macedonia (N = 116) completed a conspiracy ideation scale immediately after a national referendum on the country?s name change from ?Macedonia? to ?North Macedonia,? and one year after. The opposition, whose control was lowered after the name change, increased their conspiracy beliefs, but supporters did not. Study 2, conducted with Americans (N = 266) in the wake of a series of devastating tornadoes, replicated and expanded the first study: the effects were evident only for the threatening event-related conspiracy beliefs. These studies suggest a possible link between lack of control and conspiracy beliefs in the real world.

Searching for General Model of Conspiracy Theories and Its Implication for Public Health Policy: Analysis of the Impacts of Political, Psychological, Structural Factors on Conspiracy Beliefs about the COVID-19 Pandemic

Along with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, beliefs in conspiracy theories are spreading within and across countries. This study aims to analyze predictors of beliefs in conspiracy theories. Because previous studies have emphasized only specific political, psychological, or structural factors or variables, this study constructs an integrated analytical model that includes all three factors. We analyze data from a large-scale survey of Koreans (N = 1525) and find several results. First, political, psychological, and structural factors influence beliefs in conspiracy theories. Second, when we examine the specific influences of the variables, we find that authoritarianism, support for minority parties, religiosity, trust in SNS (social networking services), perceived risk, anxiety, negative emotions, blame attribution, the quantity of information, health status, and health after COVID-19, all positively influence beliefs in conspiracy theories. Conversely, support for President Moon Jae-In's government, Christianity, trust in the government, perceived control, analytic thinking, knowledge, the quality of information, and gender, all negatively impact these beliefs. Among the predictors, the quality of information, health status, support for President Moon Jae-In's government, perceived risk, and anxiety have the most decisive impacts on beliefs in conspiracy theories.

“Historia est magistra vitae”? The impact of historical victimhood on current conspiracy beliefs

Conspiracy beliefs constitute a propensity to attribute major events to powerful agents acting against less powerful “victims”. In this article we test whether collective victimhood facilitates conspiracy thinking. Study 1 showed that perceived group victimhood is associated with generic and group-specific conspiracy beliefs, but only for individuals who identify highly with their ingroup. Study 2 employed an experimental design to show that experimentally increased group victimhood leads to increased endorsement of conspiracy beliefs among high ingroup identifiers, but decreases endorsement of conspiracy beliefs among low identifiers. This effect was mediated by lack of trust towards outgroup members. Study 3 sought to replicate Study 2 in a different socio-political context. While Study 3 did not directly support the relationship between victimhood, group identification and conspiracy beliefs, an integrated meta-analysis of all three studies provides evidence for a significant interaction of victimhood and group identification in predicting conspiracy beliefs.

Fact vs Fallacy: The Anti-Vaccine Discussion Reloaded

In the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, anti-vaccine sentiments have been on the rise, with a recent seminal study on the development of anti-vaccine views in social media even making its way into Nature Communications. Yet, with the current scientific consensus being in overwhelming agreement over the safety and efficacy of vaccines, many scientists lose their grasp on the fears, concerns, and arguments that the opposition may hold. This paper discusses and evaluates vaccine-hesitant individuals on a socioeconomic, historical, and philosophical landscape. It also provides an analysis of common argumentative patterns and the psychological impact that these arguments may have on undecided individuals. The discussion also explores why anti-vaccine sentiments are on the rise, and how members of the scientific and medical community require a more structured approach to communicating key arguments. This is particularly important if vaccination rates and herd immunity are to be sustained. No longer is it sufficient to win arguments based on a factual and scientific basis, but rather scientists and medical practitioners have to focus on conveying confidence and reassurance on both an informative and emotional level to those with doubts and fears.

The psychological antecedents of resistance to humanitarian aid

Victims of natural or humanitarian disasters sometimes resist aid offered to them, resulting in slower recovery among victims, and feelings of rejection among aid offerers. We present two studies conducted in Indonesia that investigated motives for spurning offers of humanitarian aid. Both studies showed that beliefs in developed countries’ conspiracies lead participants to see humanitarian aid as guided by strategic rather than prosocial motives. Perceived strategic motives in turn enhanced aid resistance, whereas perceived prosocial motives decreased resistance. Conspiratorial beliefs and aid resistance were positively predicted by national collective narcissism (Study 1) and intergroup conflict (Study 2). Together, these findings show that humanitarian aid resistance arises from the recipients’ beliefs in malignant intentions of the providers.

Mistrust and misinformation: A two-component, socio-epistemic model of belief in conspiracy theories

Although conspiracy theories are endorsed by about half the population and occasionally turn out to be true, they are more typically false beliefs that, by definition, have a paranoid theme. Consequently, psychological research to date has focused on determining whether there are traits that account for belief in conspiracy theories (BCT) within a deficit model. Alternatively, a two-component, socio-epistemic model of BCT is proposed that seeks to account for the ubiquity of conspiracy theories, their variance along a continuum, and the inconsistency of research findings likening them to psychopathology. Within this model, epistemic mistrust is the core component underlying conspiracist ideation that manifests as the rejection of authoritative information, focuses the specificity of conspiracy theory beliefs, and can sometimes be understood as a sociocultural response to breaches of trust, inequities of power, and existing racial prejudices. Once voices of authority are negated due to mistrust, the resulting epistemic vacuum can send individuals “down the rabbit hole” looking for answers where they are vulnerable to the biased processing of information and misinformation within an increasingly “post-truth” world. The two-component, socio-epistemic model of BCT argues for mitigation strategies that address both mistrust and misinformation processing, with interventions for individuals, institutions of authority, and society as a whole.

Between Conspiracy Beliefs, Ingroup Bias, and System Justification: How People Use Defense Strategies to Cope With the Threat of COVID-19

The current situation around coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) portrays a threat to us in several ways: It imposes uncertainty and a lack of control and reminds us of our own mortality. People around the world have reacted to these threats in seemingly unrelated ways: From stockpiling yeast and toilet paper to favoring nationalist ideas or endorsing conspiratorial beliefs. According to the General Process Model of Threat and Defense, the confrontation with a threat - a discrepant experience - makes humans react with both proximal and distal threat responses. While the proximal response manifests in behavioral inhibition that leads to heightened anxious arousal and vigilance, distal responses seek to lower behavioral inhibition and the associated state of anxiety and vigilance through engaging in distal defenses. In the present research, we propose that the reactions to COVID-19 may represent distal defense strategies to the pandemic and, therefore, can be explained and forecasted by the model. Thus, we hypothesized increased perceived COVID-19 threat to lead to a proximal threat response in the form of heightened behavioral inhibition. This, in return, should enhance the use of distal defenses (i.e., several ingroup biases, system justification, and conspiratorial beliefs) overlapping with the reactions observed as a response to COVID-19. This hypothesized mediated effect of increased perceived COVID-19 threat on distal defenses was tested in two preregistered studies: In Study 1 (N = 358), results showed perceived COVID-19 threat to be related to behavioral inhibition and, in turn, to be associated with increased distal defenses (i.e., higher entitativity, control restoration motivation, passive party support). In Study 2 (N = 348), we manipulated COVID-19 threat salience and found results suggesting the distal defenses of ingroup entitativity, system justification, and conspiratorial beliefs to be mediated by the proximal threat response. The results of the present research hint toward a common mechanism through which the seemingly unrelated reactions to COVID-19 can be explained. The results might help to predict future behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic and to design measures to counteract the detrimental effects of the pandemic.

Does Perceived Lack of Control Lead to Conspiracy Theory Beliefs? Findings from an online MTurk sample

It is widely believed that conspiracy theory beliefs are the product of perceived lack of control. However, to date there is mixed evidence, at best, to support this claim. We consider the reasons why conspiracy theory beliefs do not appear to be based in any straightforward way on control beliefs, interrogating existing findings and presenting new data that call the relationship into question. Across six studies conducted online using MTurk samples, we observed no effect of control manipulations on conspiracy theory beliefs, while replicating previously reported correlational evidence of their association. The results suggest that conspiracy beliefs are not suitable for compensating for threats to control. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancy between experimental and correlational effects and examine the limitations of the studies.

The cultural dimension of intergroup conspiracy theories

Although conspiracy theories are ubiquitous across times and cultures, research has not investigated how cultural dimensions may predict conspiracy beliefs. The present research examined intergroup conspiracy beliefs in United States and Chinese samples at the peak of the trade war. In two studies (one pre‐registered; total N = 1,092), we asked US participants to what extent they believed Chinese institutions and companies were conspiring against the United states and Chinese participants to what extent they believed US institutions and companies were conspiring against China. Results revealed that such beliefs were stronger among Chinese than US participants due to higher power distance values and vertical collectivism. In particular, these cultural dimensions were associated with increased psychological involvement in intergroup conflict (as reflected by higher levels of collective narcissism and perceived outgroup threat), which in turn predicted intergroup conspiracy beliefs. Exploratory analyses suggested that particularly power distance values mediate these effects. We conclude that cultural dimensions that promote hierarchy in society are associated with increased intergroup conspiracy beliefs.

An automated pipeline for the discovery of conspiracy and conspiracy theory narrative frameworks: Bridgegate, Pizzagate and storytelling on the web

Although a great deal of attention has been paid to how conspiracy theories circulate on social media, and the deleterious effect that they, and their factual counterpart conspiracies, have on political institutions, there has been little computational work done on describing their narrative structures. Predicating our work on narrative theory, we present an automated pipeline for the discovery and description of the generative narrative frameworks of conspiracy theories that circulate on social media, and actual conspiracies reported in the news media. We base this work on two separate comprehensive repositories of blog posts and news articles describing the well-known conspiracy theory Pizzagate from 2016, and the New Jersey political conspiracy Bridgegate from 2013. Inspired by the qualitative narrative theory of Greimas, we formulate a graphical generative machine learning model where nodes represent actors/actants, and multi-edges and self-loops among nodes capture context-specific relationships. Posts and news items are viewed as samples of subgraphs of the hidden narrative framework network. The problem of reconstructing the underlying narrative structure is then posed as a latent model estimation problem. To derive the narrative frameworks in our target corpora, we automatically extract and aggregate the actants (people, places, objects) and their relationships from the posts and articles. We capture context specific actants and interactant relationships by developing a system of supernodes and subnodes. We use these to construct an actant-relationship network, which constitutes the underlying generative narrative framework for each of the corpora. We show how the Pizzagate framework relies on the conspiracy theorists’ interpretation of “hidden knowledge” to link otherwise unlinked domains of human interaction, and hypothesize that this multi-domain focus is an important feature of conspiracy theories. We contrast this to the single domain focus of an actual conspiracy. While Pizzagate relies on the alignment of multiple domains, Bridgegate remains firmly rooted in the single domain of New Jersey politics. We hypothesize that the narrative framework of a conspiracy theory might stabilize quickly in contrast to the narrative framework of an actual conspiracy, which might develop more slowly as revelations come to light. By highlighting the structural differences between the two narrative frameworks, our approach could be used by private and public analysts to help distinguish between conspiracy theories and conspiracies.

Psychological, Political, and Situational Factors Combine to Boost COVID-19 Conspiracy Theory Beliefs

Conspiracy theories (CTs) are not solely the domain of extremists and paranoids. They cut across demographic and political differences (Uscinski and Parent, 2014) and can have negative social/political consequences. For example, Imhoff and Lamberty (2020) find that belief that the seriousness of COVID-19 is being exaggerated is negatively correlated with self-reported preventative behaviours such as hand washing and social distancing, and belief that the virus was intentionally created by humans is positively correlated with self-reported hoarding of food, sanitary products, and gasoline/oil, as well as stocking up on weapons.

Do COVID-19 Conspiracy Theory Beliefs Form a Monological Belief System?

Along with criticisms of the U.S. government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the disruptions to home, work, and school life resulting from social distancing orders recommended by public health experts, as well as the uncertainty about how long the disruptions will be necessary and when (if ever) we will have a vaccine, have come COVID-19 conspiracy theories (CTs).