The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

A strategy for the next decade to address data deficiency in neglected biodiversity

Measuring progress toward international biodiversity targets requires robust information on the conservation status of species, which the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species provides. However, data and capacity are lacking for most hyperdiverse groups, such as invertebrates, plants, and fungi, particularly in megadiverse or high-endemism regions. Conservation policies and biodiversity strategies aimed at halting biodiversity loss by 2020 need to be adapted to tackle these information shortfalls after 2020. We devised an 8-point strategy to close existing data gaps by reviving explorative field research on the distribution, abundance, and ecology of species; linking taxonomic research more closely with conservation; improving global biodiversity databases by making the submission of spatially explicit data mandatory for scientific publications; developing a global spatial database on threats to biodiversity to facilitate IUCN Red List assessments; automating preassessments by integrating distribution data and spatial threat data; building capacity in taxonomy, ecology, and biodiversity monitoring in countries with high species richness or endemism; creating species monitoring programs for lesser-known taxa; and developing sufficient funding mechanisms to reduce reliance on voluntary efforts. Implementing these strategies in the post-2020 biodiversity framework will help to overcome the lack of capacity and data regarding the conservation status of biodiversity. This will require a collaborative effort among scientists, policy makers, and conservation practitioners.

Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices

Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g., costs and data availability). Evaluation was based on reference literature for indices available at the time of assessment. We identified 4 key gaps in indices assessed: pathways to achieving goals (means objectives) were not always clear or relevant to desired outcomes (fundamental objectives); index testing and understanding of expected behavior was often lacking; uncertainty was seldom acknowledged or accounted for; and costs of implementation were seldom considered. These gaps may render indices inadequate in certain decision-making contexts and are problematic for indices linked with biodiversity targets and sustainability goals. Ensuring that index objectives are clear and their design is underpinned by a model of relevant processes are crucial in addressing the gaps identified by our assessment. Uptake and productive use of indices will be improved if index performance is tested rigorously and assumptions and uncertainties are clearly communicated to end users. This will increase index accuracy and value in tracking biodiversity change and supporting national and global policy decisions, such as the post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Effects of land-use change and related pressures on alien and native subsets of island communities

Island species and habitats are particularly vulnerable to human disturbances, and anthropogenic changes are increasingly overwriting natural island biogeographic patterns. However, quantitative comparisons of how native and alien assemblages respond to human disturbances are scarce. Using data from 6,242 species of vertebrates, invertebrates and plants, from 7,718 sites on 81 islands, we model how land-use change, human population density and distance to the nearest road affect local assemblages of alien and native species on islands. We found that land-use change reduces both richness and abundance of native species, whereas the number and abundance of alien species are high in plantation forests and agricultural or urban sites. In contrast to the long-established pattern for native species (i.e., decline in species number with island isolation), more isolated islands have more alien species across most land uses than do less isolated islands. We show that alien species play a major role in the turnover of island assemblages: our models show that aliens outnumber natives among the species present at disturbed sites but absent from minimally-disturbed primary vegetation. Finally, we found a homogenization pattern for both native and alien assemblages across sites within most land uses. The declines of native species on islands in the face of human pressures, and the particular proneness to invasions of the more remote islands, highlight the need to reduce the intensity of human pressures on islands and to prevent the introduction and establishment of alien species.

Deciphering the Biodiversity-Production Mutualism in the Global Food Security Debate

Without changes in consumption, along with sharp reductions in food waste and postharvest losses, agricultural production must grow to meet future food demands. The variety of concepts and policies relating to yield increases fail to integrate an important constituent of production and human nutrition - biodiversity. We develop an analytical framework to unpack this biodiversity-production mutualism (BPM), which bridges the research fields of ecology and agroeconomics and makes the trade-off between food security and protection of biodiversity explicit. By applying the framework, the incorporation of agroecological principles in global food systems are quantifiable, informed assessments of green total factor productivity (TFP) are supported, and possible lock-ins of the global food system through overintensification and associated biodiversity loss can be avoided.

Tropical and Mediterranean biodiversity is disproportionately sensitive to land-use and climate change

Global biodiversity is undergoing rapid declines, driven in large part by changes to land use and climate. Global models help us to understand the consequences of environmental changes for biodiversity, but tend to neglect important geographical variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. Here we test whether biodiversity responses to climate change and land-use change differ among biomes (geographical units that have marked differences in environment and species composition). We find the strongest negative responses to both pressures in tropical biomes and in the Mediterranean. A further analysis points towards similar underlying drivers for the sensitivity to each pressure: we find both greater reductions in species richness in the types of land use most disturbed by humans and more negative predicted responses to climate change in areas of lower climatic seasonality, and in areas where a greater proportion of species are near their upper temperature limit. Within the land most modified by humans, reductions in biodiversity were particularly large in regions where humans have come to dominate the land more recently. Our results will help to improve predictions of how biodiversity is likely to change with ongoing climatic and land-use changes, pointing toward particularly large declines in the tropics where much future agricultural expansion is expected to occur. This finding could help to inform the development of the post-2020 biodiversity framework, by highlighting the under-studied regions where biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest.

Just ten percent of the global terrestrial protected area network is structurally connected via intact land

Land free of direct anthropogenic disturbance is considered essential for achieving biodiversity conservation outcomes but is rapidly eroding. In response, many nations are increasing their protected area (PA) estates, but little consideration is given to the context of the surrounding landscape. This is despite the fact that structural connectivity between PAs is critical in a changing climate and mandated by international conservation targets. Using a high-resolution assessment of human pressure, we show that while ~40% of the terrestrial planet is intact, only 9.7% of Earth's terrestrial protected network can be considered structurally connected. On average, 11% of each country or territory's PA estate can be considered connected. As the global community commits to bolder action on abating biodiversity loss, placement of future PAs will be critical, as will an increased focus on landscape-scale habitat retention and restoration efforts to ensure those important areas set aside for conservation outcomes will remain (or become) connected.

Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides^1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity³; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge⁴. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity⁵. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife

Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008-16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.

The Impact of Accounting for Future Wood Production in Global Vertebrate Biodiversity Assessments

Forests are among the most species rich habitats and the way they are managed influences their capacity to protect biodiversity. To fulfill increasing wood demands in the future, planted and non-planted wood production will need to expand. While biodiversity assessments usually focus on the impacts of deforestation, the effects of wood harvest are mostly not considered, especially not in a spatially explicit manner. We present here a global approach to refine the representation of forest management through allocating future wood production to planted and non-planted forests. Wood production, following wood consumption projections of three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, was allocated using likelihood maps for planted and production forests. On a global scale, plantations for wood production were projected to increase by 45-65% and harvested area in non-planted forests by 1-17%. The biodiversity impacts of changes in wood production patterns were estimated by applying two commonly used indicators: (1) changes in species richness and (2) changes in habitat-suitable ranges of single species. The impact was analyzed using forest cover changes as reference. Our results show that, although forest cover changes have the largest impact on biodiversity, changes in wood production also have a significant effect. The magnitude of impacts caused by changes of wood production substantially differs by region and taxa. Given the importance of forest production changes in net negative emission pathways, more focus should be put on assessing the effects of future changes in wood production patterns as part of overall land use change impacts.

A global map of terrestrial habitat types

We provide a global, spatially explicit characterization of 47 terrestrial habitat types, as defined in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) habitat classification scheme, which is widely used in ecological analyses, including for quantifying species' Area of Habitat. We produced this novel habitat map for the year 2015 by creating a global decision tree that intersects the best currently available global data on land cover, climate and land use. We independently validated the map using occurrence data for 828 species of vertebrates (35152 point plus 8181 polygonal occurrences) and 6026 sampling sites. Across datasets and mapped classes we found on average a balanced accuracy of 0.77 ([Formula: see text]0.14 SD) at Level 1 and 0.71 ([Formula: see text]0.15 SD) at Level 2, while noting potential issues of using occurrence records for validation. The maps broaden our understanding of habitats globally, assist in constructing area of habitat refinements and are relevant for broad-scale ecological studies and future IUCN Red List assessments. Periodic updates are planned as better or more recent data becomes available.

Blind spots in global soil biodiversity and ecosystem function research

Soils harbor a substantial fraction of the world's biodiversity, contributing to many crucial ecosystem functions. It is thus essential to identify general macroecological patterns related to the distribution and functioning of soil organisms to support their conservation and consideration by governance. These macroecological analyses need to represent the diversity of environmental conditions that can be found worldwide. Here we identify and characterize existing environmental gaps in soil taxa and ecosystem functioning data across soil macroecological studies and 17,186 sampling sites across the globe. These data gaps include important spatial, environmental, taxonomic, and functional gaps, and an almost complete absence of temporally explicit data. We also identify the limitations of soil macroecological studies to explore general patterns in soil biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships, with only 0.3% of all sampling sites having both information about biodiversity and function, although with different taxonomic groups and functions at each site. Based on this information, we provide clear priorities to support and expand soil macroecological research.

Zoonotic host diversity increases in human-dominated ecosystems

Land use change-for example, the conversion of natural habitats to agricultural or urban ecosystems-is widely recognized to influence the risk and emergence of zoonotic disease in humans1,2. However, whether such changes in risk are underpinned by predictable ecological changes remains unclear. It has been suggested that habitat disturbance might cause predictable changes in the local diversity and taxonomic composition of potential reservoir hosts, owing to systematic, trait-mediated differences in species resilience to human pressures3,4. Here we analyse 6,801 ecological assemblages and 376 host species worldwide, controlling for research effort, and show that land use has global and systematic effects on local zoonotic host communities. Known wildlife hosts of human-shared pathogens and parasites overall comprise a greater proportion of local species richness (18-72% higher) and total abundance (21-144% higher) in sites under substantial human use (secondary, agricultural and urban ecosystems) compared with nearby undisturbed habitats. The magnitude of this effect varies taxonomically and is strongest for rodent, bat and passerine bird zoonotic host species, which may be one factor that underpins the global importance of these taxa as zoonotic reservoirs. We further show that mammal species that harbour more pathogens overall (either human-shared or non-human-shared) are more likely to occur in human-managed ecosystems, suggesting that these trends may be mediated by ecological or life-history traits that influence both host status and tolerance to human disturbance5,6. Our results suggest that global changes in the mode and the intensity of land use are creating expanding hazardous interfaces between people, livestock and wildlife reservoirs of zoonotic disease.

Changes in taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in the Anthropocene

To better understand how ecosystems are changing, a multifaceted approach to measuring biodiversity that considers species richness (SR) and evolutionary history across spatial scales is needed. Here, we compiled 162 datasets for fish, bird and plant assemblages across the globe and measured how taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity changed at different spatial scales (within site α diversity and between sites spatial β diversity). Biodiversity change is measured from these datasets in three ways: across land use gradients, from species lists, and through sampling of the same locations across two time periods. We found that local SR and phylogenetic α diversity (Faith's PD (phylogenetic diversity)) increased for all taxonomic groups. However, when measured with a metric that is independent of SR (phylogenetic species variation, PSV), phylogenetic α diversity declined for all taxonomic groups. Land use datasets showed declines in SR, Faith's PD and PSV. For all taxonomic groups and data types, spatial taxonomic and phylogenetic β diversity decreased when measured with Sorensen dissimilarity and phylogenetic Sorensen dissimilarity, respectively, providing strong evidence of global biotic homogenization. The decoupling of α and β diversity, as well as taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, highlights the need for a broader perspective on contemporary biodiversity changes. Conservation and environmental policy decisions thus need to consider biodiversity beyond local SR to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Effects of rarity form on species' responses to land use

Anthropogenic land-use change causes substantial changes in local and global biodiversity. Rare and common species can differ in sensitivity to land-use change; rare species are expected to be affected more negatively. Rarity may be defined in terms of geographic range size, population density, or breadth of habitat requirements. How these 3 forms of rarity interact in determining global responses to land use is yet to be assessed. Using global data representing 912 vertebrate species, we tested for differences in responses to land use of species characterized by different types of rarity. Land-use responses were fitted using generalized linear mixed-effects models, allowing responses to vary among groups of species with different forms of rarity. Species considered rare with respect to all 3 forms of rarity showed particularly strong declines in disturbed land uses (>40% of species and 30% of individuals in the most disturbed land uses). In contrast, species common both geographically and numerically and with broad habitat requirements showed strong increases (up to 90% increase in species and 40% in abundance in some land uses). Our results suggest that efforts to understand the vulnerability of species to environmental changes should account for different types of rarity where possible. Our results also have potentially important implications for ecosystem functioning, given that rare species may play unique roles within ecosystems.

Collaboration across Time and Space in the LTER Network

The scale of ecological research is getting larger and larger. At such scales, collaboration is indispensable, but there is little consensus on what factors enable collaboration. In the present article, we investigated the temporal and spatial pattern of institutional collaboration within the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network on the basis of the bibliographic database. Social network analysis and the Monte Carlo method were applied to identify the characteristics of papers published by LTER researchers within a baseline of papers from 158 leading ecological journals. Long-term and long-distance collaboration were more frequent in the LTER Network, and we investigate and discuss the underlying mechanisms. We suggest that the maturing infrastructure and environment for collaboration within the LTER Network could encourage scientists to make large-scale hypotheses and to ask big questions in ecology.

Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4

Scenario-based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio-economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc-seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area-weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (-0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil-fuelled development scenarios (-0.06 and -0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub-Saharan Africa. In some scenario-region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.

Environmental impact of tsetse eradication in Senegal

The sterile insect technique is an environment friendly control tactic and is very species specific. It is not a stand-alone technique and has been used mostly in combination with other control tactics within an area-wide integrated pest management strategy. For a period of eight years, the direct impact of a campaign to eradicate a population of the tsetse fly Glossina palpalis gambiensis in Senegal was monitored using a set of fruit-feeding insect species (Cetoniinae and Nymphalidae) that served as ecological indicators of the health of the ecosystem. Here we show that the eradication campaign had very limited impacts on the apparent densities of the most frequent species as well as three diversity indexes during the reduction phase involving insecticides but reverted to pre-intervention levels as soon as the release of the sterile male insects started. These results greatly expand our understanding of the impact of vector eradication campaigns on non-target species.

Impacts of past abrupt land change on local biodiversity globally

Abrupt land change, such as deforestation or agricultural intensification, is a key driver of biodiversity change. Following abrupt land change, local biodiversity often continues to be influenced through biotic lag effects. However, current understanding of how terrestrial biodiversity is impacted by past abrupt land changes is incomplete. Here we show that abrupt land change in the past continues to influence present species assemblages globally. We combine geographically and taxonomically broad data on local biodiversity with quantitative estimates of abrupt land change detected within time series of satellite imagery from 1982 to 2015. Species richness and abundance were 4.2% and 2% lower, respectively, and assemblage composition was altered at sites with an abrupt land change compared to unchanged sites, although impacts differed among taxonomic groups. Biodiversity recovered to levels comparable to unchanged sites after >10 years. Ignoring delayed impacts of abrupt land changes likely results in incomplete assessments of biodiversity change.

Abrupt land changes may have long-lasting effects on local biodiversity. Here, Jung et al. show that past abrupt land change reduces species richness and abundance, and alters assemblage composition, with recovery often taking more than 10 years.

A global database on non-volant small mammal composition in natural and human-modified habitats

Non-volant small mammals, which include small-bodied representatives from several mammal orders, have been used as a model group to test the effects of habitat conversion and edge creation on biodiversity. Small mammals occupy a large variety of habitat types and vegetation strata, and have varied lifestyles and diets. They include species with slow-to fast-life history (the Etruscan shrew Suncus etruscus and European Hare Lepus europaeus, respectively) and with very specialized to very generalist habits and diets (the Atlantic bamboo rat Kannabateomys amblyonyx and house mouse Mus musculus, respectively). There are no databases with global coverage focusing on small mammal composition in natural and human-modified habitats and that include neglected natural habitats (e.g. grasslands and savannas). Here, peer-reviewed articles were searched in the primary literature to synthesize almost half century (1973–2017) of research on small mammal composition in natural forests, grasslands and their natural edges, and in five types of human-modified habitats (human-induced forest edges, human-induced grassland edges, crop fields, clear-cuts and tree plantations). The complete database includes information from 199 peer-reviewed articles. Presence data were obtained for 534 species (including 30 unidentified) in 551 sites distributed in 45 countries, 92 ecoregions, 10 biomes and six realms. Measurements of sampling effort and number of species records (number of individuals, captures) per habitat were also obtained, from which researchers can calculate a measure of abundance standardized by the sampling effort. The database will be useful for researchers interested in local-to broad-scale patterns of alpha- and beta-diversity in natural and human-modified habitats.

Projecting impacts of global climate and land-use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional-turnover modelling

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine-resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species-area relationship, to estimate the effect of land-use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land-use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio-economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre-2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land-use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7-4.5 times compared to land-use-only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land-use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre-industrial times is observed.

Future effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate community diversity under different scenarios

Land-use and climate change are among the greatest threats facing biodiversity, but understanding their combined effects has been hampered by modelling and data limitations, resulting in part from the very different scales at which land-use and climate processes operate. I combine two different modelling paradigms to predict the separate and combined (additive) effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate communities under four different scenarios. I predict that climate-change effects are likely to become a major pressure on biodiversity in the coming decades, probably matching or exceeding the effects of land-use change by 2070. The combined effects of both pressures are predicted to lead to an average cumulative loss of 37.9% of species from vertebrate communities under ‘business as usual’ (uncertainty ranging from 15.7% to 54.2%). Areas that are predicted to experience the effects of both pressures are concentrated in tropical grasslands and savannahs. The results have important implications for the conservation of biodiversity in future, and for the ability of biodiversity to support important ecosystem functions, upon which humans rely.

Conceptual Framework for Biodiversity Assessments in Global Value Chains

Land use and land use change are among the main drivers of the ongoing loss of biodiversity at a global-scale. Although there are already Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods to measure this impact, they are still rarely used by companies and municipalities in the life cycle assessment of products and processes. Therefore, this paper highlights four main requirements for a biodiversity methodological framework within LCIA in order to facilitate biodiversity assessments: first, to consider the global uneven distribution of biodiversity and its risks with respect to vulnerability and irreplaceability; second, to account for the need to regionalize the impacts of land use; third, to consider the specific impacts that different land use types have on biodiversity; and fourth, to analyze the biodiversity impacts of different land use management parameters and their influence on the intensity of land use. To this end, we provided a review of existing methods in respect to conformity and research gaps. The present publication describes the development of a new methodological framework that builds on these requirements in a three-level hierarchical framework, which enables the assessment of biodiversity in LCA at a global-scale. This publication reveals research gaps regarding the inclusion of proactive and reactive conservation concepts as well as methods of land management into LCIA methodology. The main objective of this concept paper is therefore to describe a new methodological framework for the assessment of biodiversity in the LCA that could fill some of the research gaps, including compilation and suggestion of suitable data sets. The conclusion discusses both the benefits and limitations of this framework.

Impacts of bracteole removal and seeding rate on seedling emergence of halophyte shrubs: implications for rangeland rehabilitation in arid environments

Direct seeding techniques often result in unsatisfactory outcomes in rangeland rehabilitation, primarily because of low seedling emergence and poor establishment. Seed processing techniques aimed at improving seedling emergence have gained interest by pasture managers. The purpose of this study was to investigate the combined effects of bracteole removal and seeding rate on seedling emergence in seven halophytic species: Atriplex halimus, A. canescens, A. leucoclada, A. nummularia, A. lentiformis, Salsola vermiculata and Haloxylon aphyllum under semi-arid conditions in Tel Hadya (Syria). Each of these species was evaluated for seedling emergence under two seed treatments (bracteoles removed and non-removed bracteoles) with three seeding rates (10, 30 and 60 seeds per pot), in a completely randomised block design. The results showed a positive effect of seed treatment on seedling emergence for all studied species. The native A. halimus had the highest emergence percentages whereas the introduced A. mummularia, had the lowest. However, there were no significant effects of seeding rates on seedling emergence. These results showed that bracteole removal could improve germination and seedling emergence, and potentially increase the rate of establishment of the species studied. Therefore, when implementing rangeland rehabilitation projects, bracteole removal needs to be considered. The native S. vermiculata should be recommended for direct seeding in the West Asia and North Africa region given its high seedling emergence, known high palatability, nutritive value, and high auto-regeneration performance.

Widespread winners and narrow-ranged losers: Land use homogenizes biodiversity in local assemblages worldwide

Human use of the land (for agriculture and settlements) has a substantial negative effect on biodiversity globally. However, not all species are adversely affected by land use, and indeed, some benefit from the creation of novel habitat. Geographically rare species may be more negatively affected by land use than widespread species, but data limitations have so far prevented global multi-clade assessments of land-use effects on narrow-ranged and widespread species. We analyse a large, global database to show consistent differences in assemblage composition. Compared with natural habitat, assemblages in disturbed habitats have more widespread species on average, especially in urban areas and the tropics. All else being equal, this result means that human land use is homogenizing assemblage composition across space. Disturbed habitats show both reduced abundances of narrow-ranged species and increased abundances of widespread species. Our results are very important for biodiversity conservation because narrow-ranged species are typically at higher risk of extinction than widespread species. Furthermore, the shift to more widespread species may also affect ecosystem functioning by reducing both the contribution of rare species and the diversity of species’ responses to environmental changes among local assemblages.

Previous studies have shown that human use of the land, mainly for agriculture and settlements, causes a detectable but relatively small net loss of biodiversity. However, not all species are affected equally, and some species even benefit from the new habitats we create. One group of species of particular concern for biodiversity conservation are those that inhabit only a small area. These narrow-ranged species are at higher risk of extinction because it is more likely that any threats to the species (including human land use) will affect their entire range. Such species can also play a unique role in the healthy functioning of ecosystems. Here, we show that the observed small declines in biodiversity in human-disturbed land can be broken down into large declines in narrow-ranged species, offset by increases in wide-ranged species. All else being equal, this finding means that ecological communities are losing their distinctive, narrow-ranged species and are becoming dominated by the same species everywhere, leading to a reduction in global biodiversity. The divergent effects of human land use on narrow-ranged and widespread species are important for the conservation of already threatened, narrow-ranged species and may lead to a negative effect on the functioning of ecosystems.

Conversion from environmental filtering to randomness as assembly rule of ground beetle assemblages along an urbanization gradient

Urbanization fragments, isolates or eliminates natural habitats, and changes the structure and composition of assemblages living in the remaining natural fragments. Knowing assembly rules is necessary to support and/or maintain biodiversity in urban habitats. We hypothesized that forest communities in rural sites are organized by environmental filtering, but this may be changed by urbanization, and in the suburban and urban forest fragments replaced by randomly organized assemblages, influenced by the colonization of species from the surrounding matrix. Evaluating simultaneously the functional and phylogenetic relationships of co-existing species, we showed that at the rural sites, co-existing ground beetle species were functionally and phylogenetically more similar than expected by chance, indicating that environmental filtering was the likely process structuring these communities. Contrary to this, in urban and suburban sites, the co-occurring species were functionally and phylogenetically not different from the null model, indicating randomly structured assemblages. According to our findings, changes in environmental and habitat characteristics accompanied by urbanization lead to assemblages of randomly colonized species from the surrounding matrix, threatening proper ecosystem functioning. To reassemble stochastically assembled species of urban and suburban fragments to structured, properly functioning communities, appropriate management strategies are needed which simultaneously consider recreational, economic and conservation criteria.

Dimensions of biodiversity loss: Spatial mismatch in land-use impacts on species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of European bees

Aim

Agricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity change in Europe. Different aspects of bee community diversity vary in their sensitivity to these pressures, as well as independently influencing ecosystem service provision (pollination). To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of human impacts on bee diversity across Europe, we assess multiple, complementary indices of diversity.

Location

One Thousand four hundred and forty six sites across Europe.

Methods

We collated data on bee occurrence and abundance from the published literature and supplemented them with the PREDICTS database. Using Rao's Quadratic Entropy, we assessed how species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of 1,446 bee communities respond to land‐use characteristics including land‐use class, cropland intensity, human population density and distance to roads. We combined these models with statistically downscaled estimates of land use in 2005 to estimate and map—at a scale of approximately 1 km²—the losses in diversity relative to semi‐natural/natural baseline (the predicted diversity of an uninhabited grid square, consisting only of semi‐natural/natural vegetation).

Results

We show that—relative to the predicted local diversity in uninhabited semi‐natural/natural habitat—half of all EU27 countries have lost over 10% of their average local species diversity and two‐thirds of countries have lost over 5% of their average local functional and phylogenetic diversity. All diversity measures were generally lower in pasture and higher‐intensity cropland than in semi‐natural/natural vegetation, but facets of diversity showed less consistent responses to human population density. These differences have led to marked spatial mismatches in losses: losses in phylogenetic diversity were in some areas almost 20 percentage points (pp.) more severe than losses in species diversity, but in other areas losses were almost 40 pp. less severe.

Main conclusions

These results highlight the importance of exploring multiple measures of diversity when prioritizing and evaluating conservation actions, as species‐diverse assemblages may be phylogenetically and functionally impoverished, potentially threatening pollination service provision.

Land-use effects on local biodiversity in tropical forests vary between continents

Land-use change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially in the tropics where secondary and plantation forests are expanding while primary forest is declining. Understanding how well these disturbed habitats maintain biodiversity is therefore important-specifically how the maturity of secondary forest and the management intensity of plantation forest affect levels of biodiversity. Previous studies have shown that the biotas of different continents respond differently to land use. Any continental differences in the response could be due to differences in land-use intensity and maturity of secondary vegetation or to differences among species in their sensitivity to disturbances. We tested these hypotheses using an extensive dataset collated from published biodiversity comparisons within four tropical regions-Asia, Africa, Central America and South America-and a wide range of animal and plant taxa. We analysed responses to land use of several aspects of biodiversity-species richness, species composition and endemicity-allowing a more detailed comparison than in previous syntheses. Within each continent, assemblages from secondary vegetation of all successional stages retained species richness comparable to those in primary vegetation, but community composition was distinct, especially in younger secondary vegetation. Plantation forests, particularly the most intensively managed, supported a smaller-and very distinct-set of species from sites in primary vegetation. Responses to land use did vary significantly among continents, with the biggest difference in richness between plantation and primary forests in Asia. Responses of individual taxonomic groups did not differ strongly among continents, giving little indication that species were inherently more sensitive in Asia than elsewhere. We show that oil palm plantations support particularly low species richness, indicating that continental differences in the response of biodiversity to land use are perhaps more likely explained by Asia's high prevalence of oil palm plantations.

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.