Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Pollution offsets the rapid evolution of increased heat tolerance in a natural population

Despite the increasing evidence for rapid thermal evolution in natural populations, evolutionary rescue under global warming may be constrained by the presence of other stressors. Highly relevant in our polluted planet, is the largely ignored evolutionary trade-off between heat tolerance and tolerance to pollutants. By using two subpopulations (separated 40 years in time) from a resurrected natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna that experienced a threefold increase in heat wave frequency during this period, we tested whether rapid evolution of heat tolerance resulted in reduced tolerance to the widespread metal zinc and whether this would affect heat tolerance upon exposure to the pollutant. Our results revealed rapid evolution of increased heat tolerance in the recent subpopulation. Notably, the sensitivity to the metal tended to be stronger (reduction in net energy budget) or was only present (reductions in heat tolerance and in sugar content) in the recent subpopulation. As a result, the rapidly evolved higher heat tolerance of the recent subpopulation was fully offset when exposed to zinc. Our results highlight that the many reports of evolutionary rescue to global change stressors may give a too optimistic view as our warming planet is polluted by metals and other pollutants.

Experiences of ecosystem changes on food services of mopane woodland communities in Vhembe, South Africa

Mopane woodlands have been shifting. While it is important to understand the spatial patterns that characterise this phenomenon, it is even more important to understand the impacts of shifting Mopane woodlands on rural communities that rely on them. This study sought to establish the impacts of shifting mopane woodlands on the production of indigenous plant food in Ward 12 of Musina local municipality in the Vhembe District municipality in the Limpopo province of South Africa. To accomplish this, the study utilised a hybrid inductive approach involving thematic-based questionnaire interviews and an exploratory view to gain insight into the narratives of focus group participants. Results revealed that seven (7) out of eleven (11) indigenous plant foods are becoming extinct, thereby limiting food sources of indigenous and local people who used to rely on them. The spatial pattern of the plant foods that are still available has now changed as they no longer grow within the reach of local communities. The community members are struggling to adapt to these changes. From these observations, we recommend that local and regional levels' policies related to natural resource management should consider the unique challenges faced by communities experiencing disruptive ecosystem changes and provide the necessary support for sustainable adaptation.

Intersecting planetary health: Exploring the impacts of environmental stressors on wildlife and human health

This comprehensive review articulates critical insights into the nexus of environmental stressors and their health impacts across diverse species, underscoring significant findings that reveal profound effects on both wildlife and human health systems. Central to our examination is the role of pollutants, climate variables, and pathogens in contributing to complex disease dynamics and physiological disruptions, with particular emphasis on immune and endocrine functions. This research brings to light emerging evidence on the severe implications of environmental pressures on a variety of taxa, including predatory mammals, raptorial birds, seabirds, fish, and humans, which are pivotal as indicators of broader ecosystem health and stability. We delve into the nuanced interplay between environmental degradation and zoonotic diseases, highlighting novel intersections that pose significant risks to biodiversity and human populations. The review critically evaluates current methodologies and advances in understanding the morphological, histopathological, and biochemical responses of these organisms to environmental stressors. We discuss the implications of our findings for conservation strategies, advocating for a more integrated approach that incorporates the dynamics of zoonoses and pollution control. This synthesis not only contributes to the academic discourse but also aims to influence policy by aligning with the Global Goals for Sustainable Development. It underscores the urgent need for sustainable interactions between humans and their environments, which are critical for preserving biodiversity and ensuring global health security. By presenting a detailed analysis of the interdependencies between environmental stressors and biological health, this review highlights significant gaps in current research and provides a foundation for future studies aimed at mitigating these pressing issues. Our study is significant as it proposes integrative and actionable strategies to address the challenges at the intersection of environmental change and public health, marking a crucial step forward in planetary health science.

Exploring the intricacies of Pasteurella multocida dynamics in high-altitude livestock and its consequences for bovine health: A personal exploration of the yak paradox

Pasturella multocida (P. multocida), a gram-negative bacterium, has long been a focus of interest in animal health because of its capacity to cause different infections, including hemorrhagic septicemia. Yaks, primarily found in high-altitude environments, are among the several livestock animals affected by these bacteria. Yaks are essential to the socioeconomic life of the people who depend on them since they are adapted to the cold and hypoxic conditions of highland environments. Nevertheless, these terrains exhibit a greater incidence of P. multocida despite the severe environmental complications. This predominance has been linked to the possible attenuation of the yak's immunological responses in such circumstances and the evolution of some bacterial strains to favor survival in the respiratory passages of the animals. Moreover, these particular strains threaten other cattle populations that interact with yaks, which might result in unanticipated outbreaks in areas previously thought to be low risk. Considering these findings, designing and executing preventative and control strategies suited explicitly for these distinct biological environments is imperative. Through such strategies, yaks' health will be guaranteed, and a larger bovine population will be safeguarded against unanticipated epidemics. The current review provides thorough insights that were previously dispersed among several investigations. Its distinct method of connecting the ecology of yaks with the dynamics of infection offers substantial background information for further studies and livestock management plans.

Amphibians rise to flourishing under climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Amphibian populations are declining globally due to climate change. However, the impacts on the geographic distribution of amphibians on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), a global biodiversity hotspot with 112 species of amphibians that is sensitive to global climate change, remains unclear. In this study, MaxEnt and barycentre shift analyses were performed to reveal the impact of climate change on the potential future habitats of amphibians on the QTP using the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate pattern with three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). In contrast to the widespread decline in the amphibian population, the future scenarios projected an increase in most amphibian habitats on the QTP, accompanied by migration to higher elevations or latitudes under three climatic projections (SSP 1-2.6, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5). Average annual precipitation was the most crucial environmental variable impacting the future distribution of amphibians. The findings indicate that amphibians would flourish under climate change on the QTP, which is of great significance for the protection of amphibians and biodiversity on the QTP.

Unraveling the urban climate crisis: Exploring the nexus of urbanization, climate change, and their impacts on the environment and human well-being - A global perspective

The accelerating pace of urbanization, coupled with the intensifying impacts of climate change, poses unprecedented challenges to both the environment and human well-being. In this review, we delved into the intricate interaction between climate change and urbanization and the various effects they have on the environment and human well-being, shedding light on the emergent urban climate crisis. Urban areas serve as epicenters for diverse socio-economic activities, yet they also contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation. Through an interdisciplinary lens, we explored the root causes of the urban climate crisis, examining how rapid urbanization exacerbates climate change and vice versa. By synthesizing current research and case studies, we elucidate the various environmental and social ramifications of this nexus, ranging from urban heat island effects to heightened vulnerability to extreme weather events. Furthermore, we delve into the unequal distribution of climate risks within urban populations, highlighting the disproportionate burden borne by marginalized communities. Finally, the chapter presents strategies and interventions for mitigating and adapting to the urban climate crisis, emphasizing the imperative of holistic and equitable approaches that prioritize both environmental sustainability and human well-being. Overall, this review calls for concerted efforts to unravel the complexities of the urban climate crisis and forge a path toward resilient, sustainable, and equitable urban futures.

Biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change: Facing challenges and management strategies

Biodiversity conservation amidst the uncertainty of climate change presents unique challenges that necessitate precise management strategies. The study reported here was aimed at refining understanding of these challenges and to propose specific, actionable management strategies. Employing a quantitative literature analysis, we meticulously examined 1268 research articles from the Web of Science database between 2005 and 2023. Through Cite Spaces and VOS viewer software, we conducted a bibliometric analysis and thematic synthesis to pinpoint emerging trends, key themes, and the geographical distribution of research efforts. Our methodology involved identifying patterns within the data, such as frequency of keywords, co-authorship networks, and citation analysis, to discern the primary focus areas within the field. This approach allowed us to distinguish between research concentration areas, specifically highlighting a predominant interest in Environmental Sciences Ecology (67.59 %) and Biodiversity Conservation (22.63 %). The identification of adaptive management practices and ecosystem services maintenance are central themes in the research from 2005 to 2023. Moreover, challenges such as understanding phenological shifts, invasive species dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures critically impact biodiversity conservation efforts. Our findings underscore the urgent need for precise, data-driven decision-making processes in the face of these challenges. Addressing the gaps identified, our study proposes targeted solutions, including the establishment of germplasm banks for at-risk species, the development of advanced genomic and microclimate models, and scenario analysis to predict and mitigate future conservation challenges. These strategies are aimed at enhancing the resilience of biodiversity against the backdrop of climate change through integrated, evidence-based approaches. By leveraging the compiled and analyzed data, this study offers a foundational framework for future research and practical action in biodiversity conservation strategies, demonstrating a path forward through detailed analysis and specified solutions.

Anticipating responses to climate change and planning for resilience in California's freshwater ecosystems

As human-caused climate changes accelerate, California will experience hydrologic and temperature conditions different than any encountered in recorded history. How will these changes affect the state's freshwater ecosystems? Rivers, lakes, and wetlands are managed as a water resource, but they also support a complex web of life, ranging from bacteria, fungi, and algae to macrophytes, woody plants, invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. In much of the state, native freshwater organisms already struggle to survive massive water diversions and dams, deteriorating water quality, extensive land cover modification for agriculture and urban development, and invasions of exotic species. In the face of climate change, we need to expand efforts to recover degraded ecosystems and to protect the resilience, health, and viability of existing ecosystems. For this, more process-based understanding of river, lake, and wetlands ecosystems is needed to forecast how systems will respond to future climate change and to our interventions. This will require 1) expanding our ability to model mechanistically how freshwater biota and ecosystems respond to environmental change; 2) hypothesis-driven monitoring and field studies; 3) education and training to build research, practitioner, stewardship, and policy capabilities; and 4) developing tools and policies for building resilient ecosystems. A goals-driven, hypothesis-informed collaboration among tribes, state (and federal) agencies, nongovernmental organizations, academicians, and consultants is needed to accomplish these goals and to advance the skills and knowledge of the future workforce of practitioners, regulators, and researchers who must live with the climate changes that are already upon us and will intensify.

Divergent spatio-temporal tree growth trends in Pinus pinaster Ait. in South-Western European forests

Climate change influences forest ecosystems in several ways, such as modifying forest growth or ecosystem functionality. To fully understand the impact of changing climatic conditions on forest growth it is necessary to undertake long-term spatiotemporal analyses. The main purpose of this work is to describe the major trends in tree growth of Pinus pinaster in Spain over the last 70 years, differentiating homogeneous ecological units using an unsupervised classification algorithm and additive modelling techniques. We also aim to relate these growth trends with temporal series for precipitation and temperature, as well as forest variables. We leverage information from a large data set of tree cores (around 2200) extracted during the field campaign of the Fourth Spanish National Forest Inventory. An unsupervised algorithm classified the plots into five classes, which were consistent in ecological terms. We also found a general decline in growth in three of the five ecoregions since the 1970s, concomitant with an increase in temperature and a reduction in precipitation. However, this tree growth decline has not been observed in the Atlantic influenced ecoregion, where the cooler, more humid climatic conditions are more stable. Certain stand features, such as low basal area through forest management practices, may have alleviated the impact of harsh climatic conditions on some areas of inner Spain, while denser stands display a more pronounced decline in tree growth. We concluded that Southern populations show some degrees of growth decline and low growth trends while Northern populations did not exhibit growth decline and have the largest growth rates. Under a forecasted increment of temperatures, the growth decline can be expanded.

Exploring the Evolutionary Characteristics of Food Security in China and the United States from a Multidimensional Perspective

Against the backdrop of global warming, intensifying regional conflicts, deglobalization, and the spread of diseases, global food security is facing severe challenges. Studying the food security situation in China and the United States in depth can provide practical experience for formulating food security policies for countries around the world and promoting global food security governance. On the basis of a meticulous review of the evolving connotations of food security, this study adopts six dimensions-quantity security, quality security, circulation security, economic security, ecological resource security, and policy security-as breakthrough points to construct a framework consisting of food security evaluation indicator system comprising 29 specific indicators. The CRITIC-MEREC-MARCOS model is applied to evaluate the status of food security in China and the United States from 2000 to 2022, while the obstacle degree model (ODM) model is utilized to identify factors impeding food security between the two countries. The results indicate that the level of food security in China has shown slight fluctuations initially, followed by a steady upward trend. The gap with the United States is continuously narrowing. However, significant differences between China and the United States still exist in terms of economic security, ecological resource security, and policy security. Furthermore, due to the limited productivity of agricultural labor, scarcity of water and soil resources, and low efficiency in the use of fertilizers and pesticides, China's food security is subject to economic and environmental constraints. The restrictions imposed by economic security and ecological resource security on China's food security are showing an increasing trend year by year. For the United States, with the obstruction of grain exports and the increasing frequency of drought disasters, the impact of circulation security and ecological resource security on food security is becoming increasingly prominent. In the future, China and the United States should join hands to address challenges, actively promote international cooperation in food security, and drive sustainable development for humanity.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects across Brazilian biomes

We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within a spatio-temporal model. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil-a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.

Seasonal-Spatial Distribution Variations and Predictions of Loliolus beka and Loliolus uyii in the East China Sea Region: Implications from Climate Change Scenarios

Global climate change profoundly impacts the East China Sea ecosystem and poses a major challenge to fishery management in this region. In addition, closely related species with low catches are often not distinguished in fishery production and relevant data are commonly merged in statistics and fishing logbooks, making it challenging to accurately predict their habitat distribution range. Here, merged fisheries-independent data of the closely related squid Loliolus beka (Sasaki, 1929) and Loliolus uyii (Wakiya and Ishikawa, 1921) were used to explore the construction and prediction performance of species distribution models. Data in 2018 to 2019 from the southern Yellow and East China Seas were used to identify the seasonal-spatial distribution characteristics of both species, revealing a boundary line at 29.00° N for L. uyii during the autumn, with the highest average individual weight occurring during the summer, with both larvae and juveniles occurring during the autumn. Thus, the life history of L. uyii can be divided into winter-spring nursery and summer-autumn spawning periods. L. beka showed a preference for inshore areas (15-60 m) during the summer and offshore areas (32.00-78.00 m) during the winter. High-value areas of both species included inshore areas of the southern Yellow and mid-East China Seas during the autumn, enlarging during the spring to include central areas of the survey region, before significantly decreasing during the summer. Therefore, this study provides both a novel perspective for modeling biological habitat distribution with limited data and a scientific basis for the adjustment of fishery resource management and conservation measures in the context of climate change.

Perspectives on climate action and the changing burden of infectious diseases among young Italian doctors and students: a national survey

Background

The eco-climatic crisis has been defined by the World Health Organization as the "single biggest health threat facing humanity," influencing both the emergence of zoonoses and the spread of vector-borne and water-borne diseases. The aim of this survey was to explore knowledge, eco-anxiety and attitudes toward the ecological and climate crisis among young Italian doctors and medical students.

Methods

A cross-sectional, multicenter survey was conducted from November 2022 to June 2023, by administering an anonymous questionnaire to Italian doctors and students of medicine. Endpoint of the study was a Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices (KAP) score on ecological and climate crisis (0-20 points). Association between variables and KAP score was assessed by Kruskal-Wallis' or Spearman's test, as appropriate, and significant variables were included into ordinal regression model and reported as adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Both KAP and eco-anxiety scores showed acceptable levels of consistency with Cronbach's alpha. A total of 605 medical doctors and students living in 19 Italian regions were included in the study. Median age [Q1-Q3] was 27.6 [24.1-31.3] and females were 352 (58.2%). Despite showing good attitudes toward climate action, knowledge gap were found, with 42.5% (n = 257) of the respondents not knowing the temperature limits set by the Paris Agreements and 45.5% (n = 275) believing that climate change is caused by sunspots. Fears suggestive for eco-anxiety were common. At multivariable ordinal regression, high levels of eco-anxiety (aOR 1.29, p = 0.001) and low trust in government action (aOR 1.96, p = 0.003) were associated with a higher KAP score. Only one Italian medical school offered an educational module on climate change.

Conclusion

Young Italian doctors and medical students are concerned about the climate crisis but show poor knowledge of these topics. The Italian academic system should urgently respond to this need.

Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change

The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and biases and to motivate future data collection. We find that species coverage varies strongly by taxon and underrepresents species at high and low latitudes. Within species, assessments of potential redistributions came from parts of their geographic range that were highly uneven and non-representative. For most species and taxa, studies were strongly biased toward the colder parts of species' distributions and thus significantly underrepresented populations that might get pushed beyond their maximum temperature limits. Coverage of potential leading and trailing geographic range edges under a changing climate was similarly uneven. Only 8% of studied species were assessed at both high and low latitude and elevation range edges, with most only covered at one edge. This suggests that substantial within-species biases exacerbate the considerable geographic and taxonomic among-species unevenness in evidence. Our results open the door for a more quantitative accounting for existing knowledge biases in climate change ecology and a more informed management and conservation. Our findings offer guidance for future data collection that better addresses information gaps and provides a more effective foundation for managing the biological impacts of climate change.

Advancing abiotic stress monitoring in plants with a wearable non-destructive real-time salicylic acid laser-induced-graphene sensor

Drought and salinity stresses present significant challenges that exert a severe impact on crop productivity worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of salicylic acid (SA), a vital phytohormone involved in stress response, can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms of plant adaptation to cope with these challenging conditions. This paper describes and tests a sensor system that enables real-time and non-invasive monitoring of SA content in avocado plants exposed to drought and salinity. By using a reverse iontophoretic system in conjunction with a laser-induced graphene electrode, we demonstrated a sensor with high sensitivity (82.3 nA/[μmol L-1⋅cm-2]), low limit of detection (LOD, 8.2 μmol L-1), and fast sampling response (20 s). Significant differences were observed between the dynamics of SA accumulation in response to drought versus those of salt stress. SA response under drought stress conditions proved to be faster and more intense than under salt stress conditions. These different patterns shed light on the specific adaptive strategies that avocado plants employ to cope with different types of environmental stressors. A notable advantage of the proposed technology is the minimal interference with other plant metabolites, which allows for precise SA detection independent of any interfering factors. In addition, the system features a short extraction time that enables an efficient and rapid analysis of SA content.

Rethinking urban wilderness: Status, hotspots, and prospects of ecosystem services

An urban wilderness (UW) portrays a coupled relationship between natural dominance and human management in urban spaces. Superior ecosystem services support sustainable urban development. Systematic assessments of the status, changes, and trends of urban wilderness ecosystem services (UWESs) are a debated and complex issue in the field of ecology despite their importance as key components for ensuring the sustainable development of human society. We aimed to analyze the scientific literature on UWESs published between 2000 and 2022. Hence, we used bibliometric methods to comprehensively understand the research lineages, hotspots, and trends in UWESs. We found that the research has roughly encompassed two phases: initial exploration (2000-2011)and rapid growth (2012-2022). The number of publications has shown a continuous growth trend; the research hotspots include UWs compared with urban greenfield ecosystems, the spatio-temporal dynamics of UWs, ecosystem services and value assessments, and the coupling and linkage between ecosystem maintenance and human health. We summarized relevant trends for the concept of harmonious coexistence between human beings and nature, focusing on spatio-temporal dynamics and multidisciplinary integration as well as reinforcing the link with human health. This study can serve as a reference for demonstrating the value of UWESs and their practical application in a UW.

The ice phenology as a predictor of Planktothrix rubescens bloom in vegetation season in temperate lakes

Introduction

Global warming affects air and water temperatures, which impacts the phenology of lakes and aquatic ecosystems. These changes are most noticeable during winter, when the potentially toxic Planktothrix rubescens forms its inoculum for annual blooms. Mostly, research has been conducted on alpine lakes, where blooms have persisted for decades, while a few have focused on temperate lakes. Our study aimed to determine the factors influencing the dynamics of the development of P. rubescens in temperate lakes where blooms occasionally occur, with a particular emphasis on the role of ice phenology.

Methods

We investigated the vertical distribution of P. rubescens in an annual cycle in three temperate lakes. Samples were collected monthly in the winter and biweekly during the vegetative seasons. Overall, 434 samples were collected and analyzed according to biological and chemical parameters. Physical parameters were measured in situ.

Results

The vegetation seasons in temperate lakes showed a similar development pattern in the P. rubescens population as that in alpine lakes. Our results also show the influence of physical and chemical factors on the vertical distribution of this cyanobacterium. These results revealed the significant impact of P. rubescens filaments on phytoplankton biodiversity and biomass. Our data show the role of ice phenology in the establishment of the winter inoculum of P. rubescens and its further mass development until its disappearance in autumn.

Conclusion

A climate-zone-independent pattern of P. rubescens blooms was observed during the vegetation periods. The population of P. rubescens was more influenced by physical factors than by the availability of dissolved nutrients in the water. Despite the same etiology, global warming has been shown to cause different responses in aquatic ecosystems, which affect the different nature of P. rubescens appearances. We associated blooms in temperate lakes, in contrast to alpine lakes, mainly with the presence of ice cover during severe winters, when the species establishes its inoculum. Hence, blooms in temperate lakes occur at different time intervals. Therefore, the dynamics of periodic blooms of P. rubescens in temperate lakes provide novel knowledge to the case study and a counterpoint to permanent blooms found in deep alpine lakes.

Ecological disturbance alters the adaptive benefits of social ties

Extreme weather events radically alter ecosystems. When ecological damage persists, selective pressures on individuals can change, leading to phenotypic adjustments. For group-living animals, social relationships may be a mechanism enabling adaptation to ecosystem disturbance. Yet whether such events alter selection on sociality and whether group-living animals can, as a result, adaptively change their social relationships remain untested. We leveraged 10 years of data collected on rhesus macaques before and after a category 4 hurricane caused persistent deforestation, exacerbating monkeys' exposure to intense heat. In response, macaques demonstrated persistently increased tolerance and decreased aggression toward other monkeys, facilitating access to scarce shade critical for thermoregulation. Social tolerance predicted individual survival after the hurricane, but not before it, revealing a shift in the adaptive function of sociality.

Global impacts of marine heatwaves on coastal foundation species

With increasingly intense marine heatwaves affecting nearshore regions, foundation species are coming under increasing stress. To better understand their impacts, we examine responses of critical, habitat-forming foundation species (macroalgae, seagrass, corals) to marine heatwaves in 1322 shallow coastal areas located across 85 marine ecoregions. We find compelling evidence that intense, summer marine heatwaves play a significant role in the decline of foundation species globally. Critically, detrimental effects increase towards species warm-range edges and over time. We also identify several ecoregions where foundation species don't respond to marine heatwaves, suggestive of some resilience to warming events. Cumulative marine heatwave intensity, absolute temperature, and location within a species' range are key factors mediating impacts. Our results suggest many coastal ecosystems are losing foundation species, potentially impacting associated biodiversity, ecological function, and ecosystem services provision. Understanding relationships between marine heatwaves and foundation species offers the potential to predict impacts that are critical for developing management and adaptation approaches.

Machine learning based urban sprawl assessment using integrated multi-hazard and environmental-economic impact

The increasing demand for land development due to human activities has fueled urbanization. However, uncontrolled urban development in some regions has resulted in urban environmental problems arising from an imbalance between supply and demand. This study aims to develop an integrated model for evaluating and prioritizing the management of hazardous urban sprawl in the Bandung metropolitan region of Indonesia. The novelty of this study lies in its pioneering application of long-term remote sensing data-based and machine learning techniques to formulate an urban sprawl priority index. This index is unique in its consideration of the impacts stemming from human economic activity, environmental degradation, and multi-disaster levels as integral components. The analysis of hazardous urban sprawl across three distinct time periods (1985-1993, 1993-2008, and 2008-2018) revealed that the 1993-2008 period had the highest increase in human economic activity, reaching 172,776 ha. The 1985-1993 period experienced the highest level of environmental degradation in the study area. Meanwhile, the 1993-2008 period showed the highest concentration of multi-hazard locations. The combined model of hazardous urban sprawl, incorporating the three parameters, indicated that the highest priority for intervention was on the outskirts of urban areas, specifically in West Bandung Regency, Cimahi, Bandung Regency, and East Bandung Regency. Regions with high-priority indices require greater attention from the government to mitigate the negative impacts of hazardous urban sprawl. This model, driven by the urban sprawl priority index, is envisioned to regulate urban movement in a more sustainable manner. Through the efficient monitoring of urban environments, the study seeks to guarantee the preservation of valuable natural resources while promoting sustainable urban development practices.

Future climate projection across Tanzania under CMIP6 with high-resolution regional climate model

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges faced by developing countries due to their lower adaptive capacity, with far-reaching impacts on agriculture. The mid-century period is widely regarded as a critical moment, during which adaptation is deemed essential to mitigating the associated impacts. This study presents future climate projections across Tanzania using the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) combined with a high-resolution regional climate model. The findings indicate that, the trends in temperature and precipitation in Tanzania from 1991 to 2020, minimum temperatures showed the highest variability with a trend of 0.3 °C, indicating significant fluctuations in minimum temperature over the decades. Maximum temperatures also showed high variability with a trend of 0.4 °C. There is a range of variability in precipitation per decade for different regions in Tanzania, with some regions experiencing significant decreases in precipitation of up to - 90.3 mm and - 127.6 mm. However, there were also regions that experienced increases in precipitation, although these increases were generally less than 4.8 mm over the decades. The projections of minimum and maximum temperatures from 2040 to 2071 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 are projected to increase by 0.14 °C to 0.21 °C per decade, across different regions. The average projected precipitation changes per decade vary across regions. Some regions are projected to experience increases in precipitation. Other regions are projected to show decreases in precipitation within the range of - 0.6 mm to 15.5 mm and - 1.5 mm to 47.4 mm under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Overall, both scenarios show an increase in projected temperatures and precipitation for most regions in Tanzania, with some areas experiencing more significant increases compared to others. The changes in temperatures and precipitation are expected to have significant impacts on agriculture and water resources in Tanzania.

Unveiling the resistance of native weed communities: insights for managing invasive weed species in disturbed environments

Weed communities influence the dynamics of ecosystems, particularly in disturbed environments where anthropogenic activities often result in higher pollution. Understanding the dynamics existing between native weed communities and invasive species in disturbed environments is crucial for effective management and normal ecosystem functioning. Recognising the potential resistance of native weed communities to invasion in disturbed environments can help identify suitable native plants for restoration operations. This review aims to investigate the adaptations exhibited by native and non-native weeds that may affect invasions within disturbed environments. Factors such as ecological characteristics, altered soil conditions, and adaptations of native weed communities that potentially confer a competitive advantage relative to non-native or invasive weeds in disturbed environments are analysed. Moreover, the roles of biotic interactions such as competition, mutualistic relationships, and allelopathy in shaping the invasion resistance of native weed communities are described. Emphasis is given to the consideration of the resistance of native weeds as a key factor in invasion dynamics that provides insights for conservation and restoration efforts in disturbed environments. Additionally, this review underscores the need for further research to unravel the underlying mechanisms and to devise targeted management strategies. These strategies aim to promote the resistance of native weed communities and mitigate the negative effects of invasive weed species in disturbed environments. By delving deeper into these insights, we can gain an understanding of the ecological dynamics within disturbed ecosystems and develop valuable insights for the management of invasive species, and to restore long-term ecosystem sustainability.

Squamate scavenging services: Heath goannas (Varanus rosenbergi) support carcass removal and may suppress agriculturally damaging blowflies

Human-induced environmental change has caused widespread loss of species that support important functions for ecosystems and society. For example, vertebrate scavengers contribute to the functional health of ecosystems and provide services to agricultural landscapes by removing carcasses and associated pests. Widespread extirpation of native Australian mammals since the arrival of Europeans in Australia has removed many scavenging species from landscapes, while scavenging mammals such as European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) have been introduced. In much of Australia, squamate reptiles are the largest native terrestrial scavengers remaining, where large native mammals are extinct and conservation management is being undertaken to remove invasive mammals. The contribution of reptiles to scavenging functions is not well understood. In this study, we investigated the ecosystem functions provided by large reptiles as scavengers to better understand how populations can be managed to support ecosystem services. We investigated the ecosystem services provided by vertebrate scavengers in Australian coastal mallee ecosystems, focusing on the heath goanna (Varanus rosenbergi), the only extant native terrestrial scavenger in the region. We carried out exclosure experiments, isolating the scavenging activity of different taxonomic groups to quantify the contribution of different taxa to scavenging services, specifically the removal of rat carcasses, and its impact on the occurrence of agriculturally damaging blowflies. We compared areas with different native and invasive scavenger communities to investigate the impact of invasive species removal and native species abundance on scavenging services. Our results indicated that vertebrate scavenging significantly contributes to carcass removal and limitation of necrophagous fly breeding in carcasses and that levels of removal are higher in areas associated with high densities of heath goannas and low densities of invasive mammals. Therefore, augmentation of heath goanna populations represents a promising management strategy to restore and maximize scavenging ecosystem services.

Catalyzing sustainable development: Exploring the interplay between access to clean water, sanitation, renewable energy and electricity services in shaping China's energy, economic growth, and environmental landscape

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) reflect the shift in global economic conversation toward inclusive growth. The growth can promote inclusivity and widespread sharing of its advancements by concentrating on four key dimensions. (a) Equality of opportunity, (b) sharing prosperity, (3) environmental sustainability/climate adaptation, and (4) macroeconomic stability. We used the Kao cointegration test to study how certain variables are connected over a long period. The relationship between CO2 and GDP per capita, renewable energy and tourism, improved water and sanitation, and access to power all have a positive feedback effect on each other. Based on FMOLS's findings, a 1 % increase in Inclusive growth leads to a 0.342 % (Model 1) and 0.258 % (Model 3) increase in CO2 emissions. An increase of 1 percent in energy consumption per person resulted in a rise of 1.343 % in CO2 emissions in Case 1, 0.524 % in Case 2, and 0.618 % in Case 3. Increasing the tourism sector's proportion of total exports by just one percent will reduce CO2 emissions by 0.221 % (case 1) and 0.234 % (case 3). Based on CCR findings, a 1 % improvement in inclusive growth leads to a 0.403.

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem's carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Sustainable strategies: Nature-based solutions to tackle antibiotic resistance gene proliferation and improve agricultural productivity and soil quality

The issue of antibiotic resistance is now recognized by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as one of the major problems in human health. Although its effects are evident in the healthcare settings, the root cause should be traced back to the One Health link, extending from animals to the environment. In fact, the use of organic fertilizers in agroecosystems represents one, if not the primary, cause of the introduction of antibiotics and antibiotic-resistant bacteria into the soil. Since the concentrations of antibiotics introduced into the soil are residual, the agroecosystem has become a perfect environment for the selection and proliferation of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). The continuous influx of these emerging contaminants (i.e., antibiotics) into the agroecosystem results in the selection and accumulation of ARGs in soil bacteria, occasionally giving rise to multi-resistant bacteria. These bacteria may harbour ARGs related to various antibiotics on their plasmids. In this context, these bacteria can potentially enter the human sphere when individuals consume food from contaminated agroecosystems, leading to the acquisition of multi-resistant bacteria. Once introduced into the nosocomial environment, these bacteria pose a significant threat to human health. In this review, we analyse how the use of digestate as an organic fertilizer can mitigate the spread of ARGs in agroecosystems. Furthermore, we highlight how, according to European guidelines, digestate can be considered a Nature-Based Solution (NBS). This NBS not only has the ability to mitigate the spread of ARGs in agroecosystems but also offers the opportunity to further improve Microbial-Based Solutions (MBS), with the aim of enhancing soil quality and productivity.

Predicting the potential distribution of the Pheidole megacephala in light of present and future climate variations

The big-headed ant, Pheidole megacephala (Fabricius), has a widespread distribution across numerous regions globally. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has identified it as one of the 100 worst invasive alien species worldwide, given the severe ecological and economic harm it causes in invaded areas. In this study, we predicted the present and future global distribution of P. megacephala, taking into account known distribution points and bioclimatic factors. Our results indicated that temperature is the primary factor affecting the distribution of P. megacephala, with potential suitable areas currently found mainly in South America, Southern North America, Western Europe, Coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Red Seas, Southern Africa, Southern Asia, Islands in Southeast Asia, and coastal regions of Australia. The total suitable area spans 3,352.48 × 104 km2. In China, the potential suitable area for P. megacephala is 109.02 × 104 km2, representing 11.36% of China's land area. In the future, based on different climatic conditions, the suitable area of P. megacephala generally showed a declining trend, but some newly added suitable areas showed that it had a tendency to expand to higher latitudes. Relevant agencies should implement effective measures to control P. megacephala populations to mitigate damage in invaded areas and slow down or prevent the spread of big-headed ants into noninvaded regions.

Existing evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on ungulates in North America: a systematic map

BACKGROUND

Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America's ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America.

METHODS

We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature.

REVIEW FINDINGS

We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), elk (Cervus canadensis), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico.

Hidden impacts of ocean warming and acidification on biological responses of marine animals revealed through meta-analysis

Conflicting results remain on the impacts of climate change on marine organisms, hindering our capacity to predict the future state of marine ecosystems. To account for species-specific responses and for the ambiguous relation of most metrics to fitness, we develop a meta-analytical approach based on the deviation of responses from reference values (absolute change) to complement meta-analyses of directional (relative) changes in responses. Using this approach, we evaluate responses of fish and invertebrates to warming and acidification. We find that climate drivers induce directional changes in calcification, survival, and metabolism, and significant deviations in twice as many biological responses, including physiology, reproduction, behavior, and development. Widespread deviations of responses are detected even under moderate intensity levels of warming and acidification, while directional changes are mostly limited to more severe intensity levels. Because such deviations may result in ecological shifts impacting ecosystem structures and processes, our results suggest that climate change will likely have stronger impacts than those previously predicted based on directional changes alone.

Habitat alteration or climate: What drives the densities of an invading ungulate?

Anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change are two well-known contributors to biodiversity loss through changes to species distribution and abundance; yet, disentangling the effects of these two factors is often hindered by their inherent confound across both space and time. We leveraged a contrast in habitat alteration associated with the jurisdictional boundary between two Canadian provinces to evaluate the relative effects of spatial variation in habitat alteration and climate on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) densities. White-tailed deer are an invading ungulate across much of North America, whose expansion into Canada's boreal forest is implicated in the decline of boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), a species listed as Threatened in Canada. We estimated white-tailed deer densities using 300 remote cameras across 12 replicated 50 km2 landscapes over 5 years. White-tailed deer densities were significantly lower in areas where winter severity was higher. For example, predicted deer densities declined from 1.83 to 0.35 deer/km2 when winter severity increased from the lowest value to the median value. There was a tendency for densities to increase with increasing habitat alteration; however, the magnitude of this effect was approximately half that of climate. Our findings suggest that climate is the primary driver of white-tailed deer populations; however, understanding the mechanisms underpinning this relationship requires further study of over-winter survival and fecundity. Long-term monitoring at the invasion front is needed to evaluate the drivers of abundance over time, particularly given the unpredictability of climate change and increasing prevalence of extreme weather events.

Seeding alpine grasses in low altitude region increases global warming potential during early seedling growth

Introduction of alpine grasses to low altitude regions has long been a crucial strategy for enriching germplasm diversity, cultivating and acclimating high-quality species, enhancing ecosystem resilience and adaptability, as well as facilitating ecosystem restoration. However, there is an urgent need to investigate the impacts of planting Gramineae seeds on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly during the critical stage of early plant growth. In this study, four species of grass seeds (Stipa breviflora, Poa pratensis, Achnatherum splendens, Elymus nutans) were collected from 19 high-altitude regions surrounding the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and sown at low-altitude. Measurements of GHG emissions at early seedling growth in the mesocosm experiment using static chamber method showed a strong increase in the cumulative emissions of CO2 (5.71%-9.19%) and N2O (11.36%-13.64%) (p < 0.05), as well as an elevated CH4 uptake (2.75%-5.50%) in sites where the four grass species were introduced, compared to bare soil. Consequently, there was a substantial rise in global warming potential (13.87%-16.33%) (p < 0.05) at grass-introduced sites. Redundancy analysis showed that seed traits, plant biomass, and seedling emergence percentage were the main driving biotic factors of three GHGs fluxes. Our study unveils the potential risk of escalating GHG emissions induced by introducing high altitude grasses to low altitude bare soil, elucidating the mechanism through linking seed traits with seedling establishment and environmental feedback. Furthermore, this offers a new perspective for assessing the impact of grass introduction on ecological environment of introduced site.

Nanofibrous Biomaterial-Based Passive Cooling Paint Structurally Linked by Alkane-Oleate Interactions

Passive radiative cooling materials, which provide cooling without consuming electricity, are widely recognized as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and delivering thermal comfort to less industrialized communities. Optimizing thermal and optical properties is of primary importance for these materials, but for real-world utilization, ease of application and scalability also require significant emphasis. In this work, we embed the biomaterial hydroxyapatite, in the form of nanoscale fibers, within an oil-based medium to achieve passive cooling from an easy-to-apply paint-like solution. The chemical structure and bonding behaviors of this mixture are studied in detail using FTIR, providing transferable conclusions for pigment-like passive cooling solutions. By reflecting 95% of solar energy and emitting 92% of its radiative output through the atmospheric transparency window, this composite material realizes an average subambient cooling performance of 3.7 °C in outdoor conditions under a mean solar irradiance of 800 W m-2. The inflammability of the material provides enhanced durability as well as unique opportunities for recycling which promote circular economic practices. Finally, the surface structure can be easily altered to tune bonding behaviors and hydrophobicity, making it an ideal passive cooling coating candidate for outdoor applications.

Ensemble species distribution modeling and multilocus phylogeography provide insight into the spatial genetic patterns and distribution dynamics of a keystone forest species, Quercus glauca

BACKGROUND

Forests are essential for maintaining species diversity, stabilizing local and global climate, and providing ecosystem services. Exploring the impact of paleogeographic events and climate change on the genetic structure and distribution dynamics of forest keystone species could help predict responses to future climate change. In this study, we combined an ensemble species distribution model (eSDM) and multilocus phylogeography to investigate the spatial genetic patterns and distribution change of Quercus glauca Thunb, a keystone of East Asian subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest.

RESULTS

A total of 781 samples were collected from 77 populations, largely covering the natural distribution of Q. glauca. The eSDM showed that the suitable habitat experienced a significant expansion after the last glacial maximum (LGM) but will recede in the future under a general climate warming scenario. The distribution centroid will migrate toward the northeast as the climate warms. Using nuclear SSR data, two distinct lineages split between east and west were detected. Within-group genetic differentiation was higher in the West than in the East. Based on the identified 58 haplotypes, no clear phylogeographic structure was found. Populations in the Nanling Mountains, Wuyi Mountains, and the southwest region were found to have high genetic diversity.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant negative correlation between habitat stability and heterozygosity might be explained by the mixing of different lineages in the expansion region after LGM and/or hybridization between Q. glauca and closely related species. The Nanling Mountains may be important for organisms as a dispersal corridor in the west-east direction and as a refugium during the glacial period. This study provided new insights into spatial genetic patterns and distribution dynamics of Q. glauca.

The future of endemic and threatened birds of the Amazon in the face of global climate change

The anthropogenic impacts on the environment, including deforestation and the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases, have significantly contributed to global climate change that can lead to alterations in ecosystems. In this context, protected areas (PAs) are pillars for biodiversity conservation by being able, for example, to maintain the viability of populations of endangered species. On the other hand, the species range shifts do not follow the limits of PAs, jeopardizing the conservation of these species. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PAs is consistently undermined by impacts stemming from land use, hunting activities, and illegal exploitation, both within the designated areas and in their adjacent zones. The objectives of this study are to quantify the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened and endemic birds of the Amazon biome, evaluate the effectiveness of PAs in protecting the richness of threatened birds, and analyze the representativeness of species within PAs. We found with our results that climate suitability loss is above 80 for 65% of taxa in the optimistic scenario and above 93% in the pessimistic scenario. The results show that PAs are not effective in protecting the richness of Amazonian birds, just as they are ineffective in protecting most of the taxa studied when analyzed individually Although some taxa are presented as "Protected," in future scenarios these taxa may suffer major shrinkages in their distributions and consequently present population unviability. The loss of climatically suitable areas and the effectiveness of PAs can directly influence the loss of ecosystem services, fundamental to maintaining the balance of biodiversity. Therefore, our study paves the way for conservation actions aimed at these taxa so that they can mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change.

Designing mosaic landscapes for sustainable outcome: Evaluating land-use options on ecosystem service provisioning in southwestern Ghana

The landscape in southwestern Ghana faces rampant modification due to socio-economic activities, posing threats to ecosystem service provision and environmental sustainability. Addressing these threats involves empowering land-use actors to design landscapes that offer multiple benefits concurrently. This study employs a geodesign framework, integrating participatory ecosystem service assessment and spatial simulations. This geodesign framework aims to design the landscape in a collaborative manner in a way that supports multiple benefits concurrently, mitigating the threats posed by landscape modification. Reflecting on local land-use perceptions during a workshop, we developed land-use options and land management strategies based on selected land-cover types. We identified urban greens, open space restoration, rubber mixed-stands, mangrove restoration, selective-cutting land preparation, soil conservation, and relay cropping as land-use options to target selected land-cover types of shrubland, cropland, smallholder rubber, smallholder palm, wetland, and settlement. The land management strategies translated into landscape scenarios based on local need conditions. We generated the local need conditions which translated into the landscape scenarios by reflecting on the location of land-cover types, 'change-effect' conditions within rubber, settlement, and cropland, and 'no-change'conditions within cropland. Results indicate synergies between the created landscape scenarios and ecosystem service provisioning, with 'no-change' within cropland providing the highest synergy and 'change-effect' within rubber providing the least synergy. Spatial modeling of local perceptions forms the novelty of this study, as the fusion of participatory assessments and spatial modeling allows for a more holistic understanding of the landscape, its services, and the potential implications of different management strategies. The geodesign framework facilitated the design of the complex heterogeneous landscape to visualize possibilities of maximizing multiple benefits and can be used for future planning on the landscape.

Emerging trends in wastewater treatment: Addressing microorganic pollutants and environmental impacts

This review focuses on the challenges and advances associated with the treatment and management of microorganic pollutants, encompassing pesticides, industrial chemicals, and persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment. The translocation of these contaminants across multiple media, particularly through atmospheric transport, emphasizes their pervasive nature and the subsequent ecological risks. The urgency to develop cost-effective remediation strategies for emerging organic contaminants is paramount. As such, wastewater-based epidemiology and the increasing concern over estrogenicity are explored. By incorporating conventional and innovative wastewater treatment techniques, this article highlights the integration of environmental management strategies, analytical methodologies, and the importance of renewable energy in waste treatment. The primary objective is to provide a comprehensive perspective on the current scenario, imminent threats, and future directions in mitigating the effects of these pollutants on the environment. Furthermore, the review underscores the need for international collaboration in developing standardized guidelines and policies for monitoring and controlling these microorganic pollutants. It advocates for increased investment in research and development of advanced materials and technologies that can efficiently remove or neutralize these contaminants, thereby safeguarding environmental health and promoting sustainable practice.

Impacts of climate change and human activity on the potential distribution of Aconitum leucostomum in China

Aconitum leucostomum is a poisonous grass that disturbs grassland populations and livestock development, and its spread is influenced by climate change and human activities. Therefore, exploring its potential distribution area under such conditions is crucial to maintain grassland ecological security and livestock development. The present study initially selected 39 variables that may influence the spatial distribution of A. leucostomum, including bioclimate, soil, topography, solar radiation, and human footprint data; the variables were screened by Spearman's correlation coefficient and the jackknife method. Twenty variables were finally identified, and three types of models based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model were constructed to predict the distribution of A. leucostomum within China under three shared economy pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585): A: prediction of environmental variables under the current climate model; B: prediction of environmental variables + human footprint under the current climate model; and C: prediction of environmental variables under the future climate model (including the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). The effects of human activities and climate change on the potential geographic distribution of A. leucostomum were explored separately. The results show that precipitation seasonality, human footprint, solar radiation and mean diurnal range are the main factors affecting the distribution of A. leucostomum. Human activities inhibit the spread of A. leucostomum, and climate change promotes its growth, with areas of high suitability and area variation mainly in northern Xinjiang and northern Yunnan. With climate change, in the future, the distribution center of A. leucostomum shows a tendency to migrate to the southeast on the horizontal gradient and to move to higher altitudes on the vertical gradient. This study provides a positive reference value for the control of A. leucostomum and the maintenance of grassland ecological security.

Mapping ecosystem services in protected areas. A systematic review

Protected areas (PAs) supply ecosystem services (ES) essential for human wellbeing. Mapping is a critical exercise that allows an understanding of the spatial distribution of the different ES in PAs. This work aims to conduct a systematic literature review on mapping ES in PAs. In order to carry out this systematic review, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses method was applied. The results showed an increase in the number of works between 2012 and 2023, and they were especially conducted in Europe and Asia and less in North America, South America, and Oceania. Most studies were developed in terrestrial areas, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature classified them into types II and IV. Most of the works followed the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification and were mainly focused on the supply dimension. Regulating and maintenance and cultural ES were the most mapped dimensions in PAs. The most frequent provisioning ES mapped in PAs were Animals reared for nutritional purposes and Cultivated terrestrial plants grown for nutritional purposes. In regulating and maintenance, Maintaining nursery populations and habitats and Regulation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans were the most analysed. For cultural ES, Characteristics of living systems that enable activities promoting health, recuperation, or enjoyment through active or immersive interactions and Characteristics of living systems that enable aesthetic experiences were the most mapped ES in PAs. Most works followed a quantitative approach, although the number of qualitative studies is high. Finally, most of the works needed to be validated, which may hamper the credibility of mapping ES in PAs. Overall, this systematic review contributed to a global picture of studies distribution, the areas where they are needed, and the most popular dimensions and sections as the methodologies were applied.

Natural disaster alters the adaptive benefits of sociality in a primate

Weather-related disasters can radically alter ecosystems. When disaster-driven ecological damage persists, the selective pressures exerted on individuals can change, eventually leading to phenotypic adjustments. For group-living animals, social relationships are believed to help individuals cope with environmental challenges and may be a critical mechanism enabling adaptation to ecosystems degraded by disasters. Yet, whether natural disasters alter selective pressures on patterns of social interactions and whether group-living animals can, as a result, adaptively change their social relationships remains untested. Here, we leveraged unique data collected on rhesus macaques from 5 years before to 5 years after a category 4 hurricane, leading to persistent deforestation which exacerbated monkeys' exposure to intense heat. In response, macaques increased tolerance for and decreased aggression toward other monkeys, facilitating access to scarce shade critical for thermoregulation. Social tolerance predicted individual survival for 5 years after the hurricane, but not before it, revealing a clear shift in the adaptive function of social relationships in this population. We demonstrate that an extreme climatic event altered selection on sociality and triggered substantial and persistent changes in the social structure of a primate species. Our findings unveil the function and adaptive flexibility of social relationships in degraded ecosystems and identify natural disasters as potential evolutionary drivers of sociality.

One-Sentence Summary

Testard et al. show that a natural disaster altered selection on sociality in group-living primates triggering persistent changes in their social structure.

Genomics empowering conservation action and improvement of celery in the face of climate change

MAIN CONCLUSION

Integration of genomic approaches like whole genome sequencing, functional genomics, evolutionary genomics, and CRISPR/Cas9-based genome editing has accelerated the improvement of crop plants including leafy vegetables like celery in the face of climate change. The anthropogenic climate change is a real peril to the existence of life forms on our planet, including human and plant life. Climate change is predicted to be a significant threat to biodiversity and food security in the coming decades and is rapidly transforming global farming systems. To avoid the ghastly future in the face of climate change, the elucidation of shifts in the geographical range of plant species, species adaptation, and evolution is necessary for plant scientists to develop climate-resilient strategies. In the post-genomics era, the increasing availability of genomic resources and integration of multifaceted genomics elements is empowering biodiversity conservation action, restoration efforts, and identification of genomic regions adaptive to climate change. Genomics has accelerated the true characterization of crop wild relatives, genomic variations, and the development of climate-resilient varieties to ensure food security for 10 billion people by 2050. In this review, we have summarized the applications of multifaceted genomic tools, like conservation genomics, whole genome sequencing, functional genomics, genome editing, pangenomics, in the conservation and adaptation of plant species with a focus on celery, an aromatic and medicinal Apiaceae vegetable. We focus on how conservation scientists can utilize genomics and genomic data in conservation and improvement.

Patterns of tropical forest understory temperatures

Temperature is a fundamental driver of species distribution and ecosystem functioning. Yet, our knowledge of the microclimatic conditions experienced by organisms inside tropical forests remains limited. This is because ecological studies often rely on coarse-gridded temperature estimates representing the conditions at 2 m height in an open-air environment (i.e., macroclimate). In this study, we present a high-resolution pantropical estimate of near-ground (15 cm above the surface) temperatures inside forests. We quantify diurnal and seasonal variability, thus revealing both spatial and temporal microclimate patterns. We find that on average, understory near-ground temperatures are 1.6 °C cooler than the open-air temperatures. The diurnal temperature range is on average 1.7 °C lower inside the forests, in comparison to open-air conditions. More importantly, we demonstrate a substantial spatial variability in the microclimate characteristics of tropical forests. This variability is regulated by a combination of large-scale climate conditions, vegetation structure and topography, and hence could not be captured by existing macroclimate grids. Our results thus contribute to quantifying the actual thermal ranges experienced by organisms inside tropical forests and provide new insights into how these limits may be affected by climate change and ecosystem disturbances.

Change in body size in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem: Consequences of tropicalization

Climate change is profoundly affecting the physical environment and biota of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf ecosystem. To understand adaptations to climate change, in particular warming temperatures, we used bottom trawl survey data to describe the size of individual fish and macroinvertebrates. Using species distribution models to estimate abundance and biomass, we determined body size in weight for all modeled species. We demonstrate a tendency for increased abundance and biomass and a concomitant decline in body size over time. An analysis of length frequency data supports this assertion. There was no trend in the combined anthropogenic removals from the ecosystem, i.e. catches, suggesting a limited role of fisheries in influencing these changes. The changes in the fish and macroinvertebrate communities are consistent with the hypothesis of a tropicalization of this ecosystem, where the ecosystem experiences a change in diversity, abundance, biomass, and the size of individuals consistent with lower latitudes. The changes in how productivity is expressed in the ecosystem factors into how human populations relate to it; in a practical sense, change in body size will likely influence the strategies and efficiencies of harvest procedures and the industries built to support them.

Revising the global biogeography of annual and perennial plants

There are two main life cycles in plants-annual and perennial1,2. These life cycles are associated with different traits that determine ecosystem function3,4. Although life cycles are textbook examples of plant adaptation to different environments, we lack comprehensive knowledge regarding their global distributional patterns. Here we assembled an extensive database of plant life cycle assignments of 235,000 plant species coupled with millions of georeferenced datapoints to map the worldwide biogeography of these plant species. We found that annual plants are half as common as initially thought5-8, accounting for only 6% of plant species. Our analyses indicate that annuals are favoured in hot and dry regions. However, a more accurate model shows that the prevalence of annual species is driven by temperature and precipitation in the driest quarter (rather than yearly means), explaining, for example, why some Mediterranean systems have more annuals than desert systems. Furthermore, this pattern remains consistent among different families, indicating convergent evolution. Finally, we demonstrate that increasing climate variability and anthropogenic disturbance increase annual favourability. Considering future climate change, we predict an increase in annual prevalence for 69% of the world's ecoregions by 2060. Overall, our analyses raise concerns for ecosystem services provided by perennial plants, as ongoing changes are leading to a higher proportion of annual plants globally.

Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change

Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.

Local adaptation and future climate vulnerability in a wild rodent

As climate change continues, species pushed outside their physiological tolerance limits must adapt or face extinction. When change is rapid, adaptation will largely harness ancestral variation, making the availability and characteristics of that variation of critical importance. Here, we used whole-genome sequencing and genetic-environment association analyses to identify adaptive variation and its significance in the context of future climates in a small Palearctic mammal, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus). We found that peripheral populations of bank vole in Britain are already at the extreme bounds of potential genetic adaptation and may require an influx of adaptive variation in order to respond. Analyses of adaptive loci suggest regional differences in climate variables select for variants that influence patterns of population adaptive resilience, including genes associated with antioxidant defense, and support a pattern of thermal/hypoxic cross-adaptation. Our findings indicate that understanding potential shifts in genomic composition in response to climate change may be key to predicting species' fate under future climates.

Mitigating infectious disease risks through non-stationary flood frequency analysis: a case study in Malaysia based on natural disaster reduction strategy

The occurrence of floods has the potential to escalate the transmission of infectious diseases. To enhance our comprehension of the health impacts of flooding and facilitate effective planning for mitigation strategies, it is necessary to explore the flood risk management. The variability present in hydrological records is an important and neglecting non-stationary patterns in flood data can lead to significant biases in estimating flood quantiles. Consequently, adopting a non-stationary flood frequency analysis appears to be a suitable approach to challenge the assumption of independent and identically distributed observations in the sample. This research employed the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to examine annual maximum flood series. To estimate non-stationary models in the flood data, several statistical tests, including the TL-moment method was utilized on the data from ten stream-flow stations in Johor, Malaysia, which revealed that two stations, namely Kahang and Lenggor, exhibited non-stationary behaviour in their annual maximum streamflow. Two non-stationary models efficiently described the data series from these two specific stations, the control of which could reduce outbreak of infectious diseases when used for controlling the development measures of the hydraulic structures. Thus, the application of these models may help prevent biased prediction of flood occurrences leading to lower number of cases infected by disease.

Distribution of sika deer (Cervus nippon) and the bioclimatic impact on their habitats in South Korea

Invasive species and climate change are primary factors influencing biodiversity, and examining the behavior of invasive species is essential for effective conservation management. Here, we report the global distribution of the sika deer (Cervus nippon) based on locations reported in published literature (Google Scholar), the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature report. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model to examine the impact of climate change on sika deer habitats in South Korea based on GBIF occurrence data and WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Habitat suitability analysis was performed using the Maxent model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (for predicted climatic conditions in both 2050 and 2070) to project the effects of different climate change scenarios on South Korean sika deer habitats. We identified that the sika deer is distributed in 39 countries worldwide. Due to climate change effects, South Korean sika deer habitats will decline by approximately 24.98% and 20.63% (under RCP 4.5) and by 50.51% and 57.35% (under RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Our findings shed light on sika deer ecology and provide reference data for future conservation management strategies and policy design.

Spatial sorting promotes rapid (mal)adaptation in the red-shouldered soapberry bug after hurricane-driven local extinctions

Predicting future evolutionary change is a critical challenge in the Anthropocene as geographic range shifts and local extinction emerge as hallmarks of planetary change. Hence, spatial sorting-a driver of rapid evolution in which dispersal-associated traits accumulate along expanding range edges and within recolonized habitats-might be of growing importance in ecology and conservation. We report on the results of a natural experiment that monitored recolonization of host plants by the seed-feeding, red-shouldered soapberry bug, Jadera haematoloma, after local extinctions from catastrophic flooding in an extreme hurricane. We tested the contribution of spatial sorting to generate rapid and persistent evolution in dispersal traits, as well as in feeding traits unrelated to dispersal. Long-winged dispersal forms accumulated in recolonized habitats and due to genetic correlation, mouthparts also became longer and this shift persisted across generations. Those longer mouthparts were probably adaptive on one host plant species but maladaptive on two others based on matching the optimum depth of seeds within their host fruits. Moreover, spatial sorting eroded recently evolved adaptive divergence in mouthpart length among all host-associated biotypes, an outcome pointing to profound practical consequences of the extreme weather event for local adaptation, population resilience and evolutionary futures.

Reconstructing annual XCO2 at a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution across China from 2012 to 2019 based on a spatial CatBoost method

Long-time-series, high-resolution datasets of the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO2) have great practical importance for mitigating the greenhouse effect, assessing carbon emissions and implementing a low-carbon cycle. However, the mainstream XCO2 datasets obtained from satellite observations have coarse spatial resolutions and are inadequate for supporting research applications with different precision requirements. Here, we developed a new spatial machine learning model by fusing spatial information with CatBoost, called SCatBoost, to fill the above gap based on existing global land-mapped 1° XCO2 data (GLM-XCO2). The 1-km-spatial-resolution dataset containing XCO2 values in China from 2012 to 2019 reconstructed by SCatBoost has stronger and more stable predictive power (confirmed with a cross-validation (R2 = 0.88 and RSME = 0.20 ppm)) than other traditional models. According to the estimated dataset, the overall national XCO2 showed an increasing trend, with the annual mean concentration rising from 392.65 ppm to 410.36 ppm. In addition, the spatial distribution of XCO2 concentrations in China reflects significantly higher concentrations in the eastern coastal areas than in the western inland areas. The contributions of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) It proposes SCatBoost, integrating the advantages of machine learning methods and spatial characteristics with a high prediction accuracy; (2) It presents a dataset of fine-scale and high resolution XCO2 over China from 2012 to 2019 by the model of SCatBoost; (3) Based on the generated data, we identify the spatiotemporal trends of XCO2 in the scale of nation and city agglomeration. These long-term and high resolution XCO2 data help understand the spatiotemporal variations in XCO2, thereby improving policy decisions and planning about carbon reduction.

Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Rhodiola L. in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Rhodiola L. has high nutritional and medicinal value. Little is known about the properties of its habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping its suitability. Rhodiola coccinea (Royle) Boriss., Rhodiola gelida Schrenk, Rhodiola kirilowii (Regel) Maxim., and Rhodiola quadrifida (Pall.) Fisch. et Mey., which are National Grade II Protected Plants, were selected for this research. Based on high-resolution environmental data for the past, current, and future climate scenarios, we modeled the suitable habitat for four species by MaxEnt, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the growth distribution of R. coccinea, R. kirilowii, and R. quadrifida is most affected by bio10 (mean temperature of warmest quarter), bio3 (isothermality), and bio12 (annual precipitation), whereas that of R. gelida is most affected by bio8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter), bio13 (precipitation of wettest month), and bio16 (precipitation of wettest quarter). Under the current climate scenario, R. coccinea and R. quadrifida are primarily distributed in Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, and according to the 2070 climate scenario, the suitable habitats for both species are expected to expand. On the other hand, the suitable habitats for R. gelida and R. kirilowii, which are primarily concentrated in southwestern Xinjiang, Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, are projected to decrease under the 2070 climate scenario. Given these results, the four species included in our study urgently need to be subjected to targeted observation management to ensure the renewal of Rhodiola communities. In particular, R. gelida and R. kirilowii should be given more attention. This study provides a useful reference with valuable insights for developing effective management and conservation strategies for these four nationally protected plant species.