Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

The future of endemic and threatened birds of the Amazon in the face of global climate change

The anthropogenic impacts on the environment, including deforestation and the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases, have significantly contributed to global climate change that can lead to alterations in ecosystems. In this context, protected areas (PAs) are pillars for biodiversity conservation by being able, for example, to maintain the viability of populations of endangered species. On the other hand, the species range shifts do not follow the limits of PAs, jeopardizing the conservation of these species. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PAs is consistently undermined by impacts stemming from land use, hunting activities, and illegal exploitation, both within the designated areas and in their adjacent zones. The objectives of this study are to quantify the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened and endemic birds of the Amazon biome, evaluate the effectiveness of PAs in protecting the richness of threatened birds, and analyze the representativeness of species within PAs. We found with our results that climate suitability loss is above 80 for 65% of taxa in the optimistic scenario and above 93% in the pessimistic scenario. The results show that PAs are not effective in protecting the richness of Amazonian birds, just as they are ineffective in protecting most of the taxa studied when analyzed individually Although some taxa are presented as "Protected," in future scenarios these taxa may suffer major shrinkages in their distributions and consequently present population unviability. The loss of climatically suitable areas and the effectiveness of PAs can directly influence the loss of ecosystem services, fundamental to maintaining the balance of biodiversity. Therefore, our study paves the way for conservation actions aimed at these taxa so that they can mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change.

Designing mosaic landscapes for sustainable outcome: Evaluating land-use options on ecosystem service provisioning in southwestern Ghana

The landscape in southwestern Ghana faces rampant modification due to socio-economic activities, posing threats to ecosystem service provision and environmental sustainability. Addressing these threats involves empowering land-use actors to design landscapes that offer multiple benefits concurrently. This study employs a geodesign framework, integrating participatory ecosystem service assessment and spatial simulations. This geodesign framework aims to design the landscape in a collaborative manner in a way that supports multiple benefits concurrently, mitigating the threats posed by landscape modification. Reflecting on local land-use perceptions during a workshop, we developed land-use options and land management strategies based on selected land-cover types. We identified urban greens, open space restoration, rubber mixed-stands, mangrove restoration, selective-cutting land preparation, soil conservation, and relay cropping as land-use options to target selected land-cover types of shrubland, cropland, smallholder rubber, smallholder palm, wetland, and settlement. The land management strategies translated into landscape scenarios based on local need conditions. We generated the local need conditions which translated into the landscape scenarios by reflecting on the location of land-cover types, 'change-effect' conditions within rubber, settlement, and cropland, and 'no-change'conditions within cropland. Results indicate synergies between the created landscape scenarios and ecosystem service provisioning, with 'no-change' within cropland providing the highest synergy and 'change-effect' within rubber providing the least synergy. Spatial modeling of local perceptions forms the novelty of this study, as the fusion of participatory assessments and spatial modeling allows for a more holistic understanding of the landscape, its services, and the potential implications of different management strategies. The geodesign framework facilitated the design of the complex heterogeneous landscape to visualize possibilities of maximizing multiple benefits and can be used for future planning on the landscape.

Emerging trends in wastewater treatment: Addressing microorganic pollutants and environmental impacts

This review focuses on the challenges and advances associated with the treatment and management of microorganic pollutants, encompassing pesticides, industrial chemicals, and persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment. The translocation of these contaminants across multiple media, particularly through atmospheric transport, emphasizes their pervasive nature and the subsequent ecological risks. The urgency to develop cost-effective remediation strategies for emerging organic contaminants is paramount. As such, wastewater-based epidemiology and the increasing concern over estrogenicity are explored. By incorporating conventional and innovative wastewater treatment techniques, this article highlights the integration of environmental management strategies, analytical methodologies, and the importance of renewable energy in waste treatment. The primary objective is to provide a comprehensive perspective on the current scenario, imminent threats, and future directions in mitigating the effects of these pollutants on the environment. Furthermore, the review underscores the need for international collaboration in developing standardized guidelines and policies for monitoring and controlling these microorganic pollutants. It advocates for increased investment in research and development of advanced materials and technologies that can efficiently remove or neutralize these contaminants, thereby safeguarding environmental health and promoting sustainable practice.

Impacts of climate change and human activity on the potential distribution of Aconitum leucostomum in China

Aconitum leucostomum is a poisonous grass that disturbs grassland populations and livestock development, and its spread is influenced by climate change and human activities. Therefore, exploring its potential distribution area under such conditions is crucial to maintain grassland ecological security and livestock development. The present study initially selected 39 variables that may influence the spatial distribution of A. leucostomum, including bioclimate, soil, topography, solar radiation, and human footprint data; the variables were screened by Spearman's correlation coefficient and the jackknife method. Twenty variables were finally identified, and three types of models based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model were constructed to predict the distribution of A. leucostomum within China under three shared economy pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585): A: prediction of environmental variables under the current climate model; B: prediction of environmental variables + human footprint under the current climate model; and C: prediction of environmental variables under the future climate model (including the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). The effects of human activities and climate change on the potential geographic distribution of A. leucostomum were explored separately. The results show that precipitation seasonality, human footprint, solar radiation and mean diurnal range are the main factors affecting the distribution of A. leucostomum. Human activities inhibit the spread of A. leucostomum, and climate change promotes its growth, with areas of high suitability and area variation mainly in northern Xinjiang and northern Yunnan. With climate change, in the future, the distribution center of A. leucostomum shows a tendency to migrate to the southeast on the horizontal gradient and to move to higher altitudes on the vertical gradient. This study provides a positive reference value for the control of A. leucostomum and the maintenance of grassland ecological security.

Mapping ecosystem services in protected areas. A systematic review

Protected areas (PAs) supply ecosystem services (ES) essential for human wellbeing. Mapping is a critical exercise that allows an understanding of the spatial distribution of the different ES in PAs. This work aims to conduct a systematic literature review on mapping ES in PAs. In order to carry out this systematic review, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses method was applied. The results showed an increase in the number of works between 2012 and 2023, and they were especially conducted in Europe and Asia and less in North America, South America, and Oceania. Most studies were developed in terrestrial areas, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature classified them into types II and IV. Most of the works followed the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification and were mainly focused on the supply dimension. Regulating and maintenance and cultural ES were the most mapped dimensions in PAs. The most frequent provisioning ES mapped in PAs were Animals reared for nutritional purposes and Cultivated terrestrial plants grown for nutritional purposes. In regulating and maintenance, Maintaining nursery populations and habitats and Regulation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans were the most analysed. For cultural ES, Characteristics of living systems that enable activities promoting health, recuperation, or enjoyment through active or immersive interactions and Characteristics of living systems that enable aesthetic experiences were the most mapped ES in PAs. Most works followed a quantitative approach, although the number of qualitative studies is high. Finally, most of the works needed to be validated, which may hamper the credibility of mapping ES in PAs. Overall, this systematic review contributed to a global picture of studies distribution, the areas where they are needed, and the most popular dimensions and sections as the methodologies were applied.

Natural disaster alters the adaptive benefits of sociality in a primate

Weather-related disasters can radically alter ecosystems. When disaster-driven ecological damage persists, the selective pressures exerted on individuals can change, eventually leading to phenotypic adjustments. For group-living animals, social relationships are believed to help individuals cope with environmental challenges and may be a critical mechanism enabling adaptation to ecosystems degraded by disasters. Yet, whether natural disasters alter selective pressures on patterns of social interactions and whether group-living animals can, as a result, adaptively change their social relationships remains untested. Here, we leveraged unique data collected on rhesus macaques from 5 years before to 5 years after a category 4 hurricane, leading to persistent deforestation which exacerbated monkeys' exposure to intense heat. In response, macaques increased tolerance for and decreased aggression toward other monkeys, facilitating access to scarce shade critical for thermoregulation. Social tolerance predicted individual survival for 5 years after the hurricane, but not before it, revealing a clear shift in the adaptive function of social relationships in this population. We demonstrate that an extreme climatic event altered selection on sociality and triggered substantial and persistent changes in the social structure of a primate species. Our findings unveil the function and adaptive flexibility of social relationships in degraded ecosystems and identify natural disasters as potential evolutionary drivers of sociality.

One-Sentence Summary

Testard et al. show that a natural disaster altered selection on sociality in group-living primates triggering persistent changes in their social structure.

Genomics empowering conservation action and improvement of celery in the face of climate change

MAIN CONCLUSION

Integration of genomic approaches like whole genome sequencing, functional genomics, evolutionary genomics, and CRISPR/Cas9-based genome editing has accelerated the improvement of crop plants including leafy vegetables like celery in the face of climate change. The anthropogenic climate change is a real peril to the existence of life forms on our planet, including human and plant life. Climate change is predicted to be a significant threat to biodiversity and food security in the coming decades and is rapidly transforming global farming systems. To avoid the ghastly future in the face of climate change, the elucidation of shifts in the geographical range of plant species, species adaptation, and evolution is necessary for plant scientists to develop climate-resilient strategies. In the post-genomics era, the increasing availability of genomic resources and integration of multifaceted genomics elements is empowering biodiversity conservation action, restoration efforts, and identification of genomic regions adaptive to climate change. Genomics has accelerated the true characterization of crop wild relatives, genomic variations, and the development of climate-resilient varieties to ensure food security for 10 billion people by 2050. In this review, we have summarized the applications of multifaceted genomic tools, like conservation genomics, whole genome sequencing, functional genomics, genome editing, pangenomics, in the conservation and adaptation of plant species with a focus on celery, an aromatic and medicinal Apiaceae vegetable. We focus on how conservation scientists can utilize genomics and genomic data in conservation and improvement.

Patterns of tropical forest understory temperatures

Temperature is a fundamental driver of species distribution and ecosystem functioning. Yet, our knowledge of the microclimatic conditions experienced by organisms inside tropical forests remains limited. This is because ecological studies often rely on coarse-gridded temperature estimates representing the conditions at 2 m height in an open-air environment (i.e., macroclimate). In this study, we present a high-resolution pantropical estimate of near-ground (15 cm above the surface) temperatures inside forests. We quantify diurnal and seasonal variability, thus revealing both spatial and temporal microclimate patterns. We find that on average, understory near-ground temperatures are 1.6 °C cooler than the open-air temperatures. The diurnal temperature range is on average 1.7 °C lower inside the forests, in comparison to open-air conditions. More importantly, we demonstrate a substantial spatial variability in the microclimate characteristics of tropical forests. This variability is regulated by a combination of large-scale climate conditions, vegetation structure and topography, and hence could not be captured by existing macroclimate grids. Our results thus contribute to quantifying the actual thermal ranges experienced by organisms inside tropical forests and provide new insights into how these limits may be affected by climate change and ecosystem disturbances.

Change in body size in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem: Consequences of tropicalization

Climate change is profoundly affecting the physical environment and biota of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf ecosystem. To understand adaptations to climate change, in particular warming temperatures, we used bottom trawl survey data to describe the size of individual fish and macroinvertebrates. Using species distribution models to estimate abundance and biomass, we determined body size in weight for all modeled species. We demonstrate a tendency for increased abundance and biomass and a concomitant decline in body size over time. An analysis of length frequency data supports this assertion. There was no trend in the combined anthropogenic removals from the ecosystem, i.e. catches, suggesting a limited role of fisheries in influencing these changes. The changes in the fish and macroinvertebrate communities are consistent with the hypothesis of a tropicalization of this ecosystem, where the ecosystem experiences a change in diversity, abundance, biomass, and the size of individuals consistent with lower latitudes. The changes in how productivity is expressed in the ecosystem factors into how human populations relate to it; in a practical sense, change in body size will likely influence the strategies and efficiencies of harvest procedures and the industries built to support them.

Revising the global biogeography of annual and perennial plants

There are two main life cycles in plants-annual and perennial1,2. These life cycles are associated with different traits that determine ecosystem function3,4. Although life cycles are textbook examples of plant adaptation to different environments, we lack comprehensive knowledge regarding their global distributional patterns. Here we assembled an extensive database of plant life cycle assignments of 235,000 plant species coupled with millions of georeferenced datapoints to map the worldwide biogeography of these plant species. We found that annual plants are half as common as initially thought5-8, accounting for only 6% of plant species. Our analyses indicate that annuals are favoured in hot and dry regions. However, a more accurate model shows that the prevalence of annual species is driven by temperature and precipitation in the driest quarter (rather than yearly means), explaining, for example, why some Mediterranean systems have more annuals than desert systems. Furthermore, this pattern remains consistent among different families, indicating convergent evolution. Finally, we demonstrate that increasing climate variability and anthropogenic disturbance increase annual favourability. Considering future climate change, we predict an increase in annual prevalence for 69% of the world's ecoregions by 2060. Overall, our analyses raise concerns for ecosystem services provided by perennial plants, as ongoing changes are leading to a higher proportion of annual plants globally.

Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change

Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.

Local adaptation and future climate vulnerability in a wild rodent

As climate change continues, species pushed outside their physiological tolerance limits must adapt or face extinction. When change is rapid, adaptation will largely harness ancestral variation, making the availability and characteristics of that variation of critical importance. Here, we used whole-genome sequencing and genetic-environment association analyses to identify adaptive variation and its significance in the context of future climates in a small Palearctic mammal, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus). We found that peripheral populations of bank vole in Britain are already at the extreme bounds of potential genetic adaptation and may require an influx of adaptive variation in order to respond. Analyses of adaptive loci suggest regional differences in climate variables select for variants that influence patterns of population adaptive resilience, including genes associated with antioxidant defense, and support a pattern of thermal/hypoxic cross-adaptation. Our findings indicate that understanding potential shifts in genomic composition in response to climate change may be key to predicting species' fate under future climates.

Mitigating infectious disease risks through non-stationary flood frequency analysis: a case study in Malaysia based on natural disaster reduction strategy

The occurrence of floods has the potential to escalate the transmission of infectious diseases. To enhance our comprehension of the health impacts of flooding and facilitate effective planning for mitigation strategies, it is necessary to explore the flood risk management. The variability present in hydrological records is an important and neglecting non-stationary patterns in flood data can lead to significant biases in estimating flood quantiles. Consequently, adopting a non-stationary flood frequency analysis appears to be a suitable approach to challenge the assumption of independent and identically distributed observations in the sample. This research employed the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to examine annual maximum flood series. To estimate non-stationary models in the flood data, several statistical tests, including the TL-moment method was utilized on the data from ten stream-flow stations in Johor, Malaysia, which revealed that two stations, namely Kahang and Lenggor, exhibited non-stationary behaviour in their annual maximum streamflow. Two non-stationary models efficiently described the data series from these two specific stations, the control of which could reduce outbreak of infectious diseases when used for controlling the development measures of the hydraulic structures. Thus, the application of these models may help prevent biased prediction of flood occurrences leading to lower number of cases infected by disease.

Distribution of sika deer (Cervus nippon) and the bioclimatic impact on their habitats in South Korea

Invasive species and climate change are primary factors influencing biodiversity, and examining the behavior of invasive species is essential for effective conservation management. Here, we report the global distribution of the sika deer (Cervus nippon) based on locations reported in published literature (Google Scholar), the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature report. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model to examine the impact of climate change on sika deer habitats in South Korea based on GBIF occurrence data and WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Habitat suitability analysis was performed using the Maxent model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (for predicted climatic conditions in both 2050 and 2070) to project the effects of different climate change scenarios on South Korean sika deer habitats. We identified that the sika deer is distributed in 39 countries worldwide. Due to climate change effects, South Korean sika deer habitats will decline by approximately 24.98% and 20.63% (under RCP 4.5) and by 50.51% and 57.35% (under RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Our findings shed light on sika deer ecology and provide reference data for future conservation management strategies and policy design.

Spatial sorting promotes rapid (mal)adaptation in the red-shouldered soapberry bug after hurricane-driven local extinctions

Predicting future evolutionary change is a critical challenge in the Anthropocene as geographic range shifts and local extinction emerge as hallmarks of planetary change. Hence, spatial sorting-a driver of rapid evolution in which dispersal-associated traits accumulate along expanding range edges and within recolonized habitats-might be of growing importance in ecology and conservation. We report on the results of a natural experiment that monitored recolonization of host plants by the seed-feeding, red-shouldered soapberry bug, Jadera haematoloma, after local extinctions from catastrophic flooding in an extreme hurricane. We tested the contribution of spatial sorting to generate rapid and persistent evolution in dispersal traits, as well as in feeding traits unrelated to dispersal. Long-winged dispersal forms accumulated in recolonized habitats and due to genetic correlation, mouthparts also became longer and this shift persisted across generations. Those longer mouthparts were probably adaptive on one host plant species but maladaptive on two others based on matching the optimum depth of seeds within their host fruits. Moreover, spatial sorting eroded recently evolved adaptive divergence in mouthpart length among all host-associated biotypes, an outcome pointing to profound practical consequences of the extreme weather event for local adaptation, population resilience and evolutionary futures.

Reconstructing annual XCO2 at a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution across China from 2012 to 2019 based on a spatial CatBoost method

Long-time-series, high-resolution datasets of the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of carbon dioxide (XCO2) have great practical importance for mitigating the greenhouse effect, assessing carbon emissions and implementing a low-carbon cycle. However, the mainstream XCO2 datasets obtained from satellite observations have coarse spatial resolutions and are inadequate for supporting research applications with different precision requirements. Here, we developed a new spatial machine learning model by fusing spatial information with CatBoost, called SCatBoost, to fill the above gap based on existing global land-mapped 1° XCO2 data (GLM-XCO2). The 1-km-spatial-resolution dataset containing XCO2 values in China from 2012 to 2019 reconstructed by SCatBoost has stronger and more stable predictive power (confirmed with a cross-validation (R2 = 0.88 and RSME = 0.20 ppm)) than other traditional models. According to the estimated dataset, the overall national XCO2 showed an increasing trend, with the annual mean concentration rising from 392.65 ppm to 410.36 ppm. In addition, the spatial distribution of XCO2 concentrations in China reflects significantly higher concentrations in the eastern coastal areas than in the western inland areas. The contributions of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) It proposes SCatBoost, integrating the advantages of machine learning methods and spatial characteristics with a high prediction accuracy; (2) It presents a dataset of fine-scale and high resolution XCO2 over China from 2012 to 2019 by the model of SCatBoost; (3) Based on the generated data, we identify the spatiotemporal trends of XCO2 in the scale of nation and city agglomeration. These long-term and high resolution XCO2 data help understand the spatiotemporal variations in XCO2, thereby improving policy decisions and planning about carbon reduction.

Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Rhodiola L. in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Rhodiola L. has high nutritional and medicinal value. Little is known about the properties of its habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping its suitability. Rhodiola coccinea (Royle) Boriss., Rhodiola gelida Schrenk, Rhodiola kirilowii (Regel) Maxim., and Rhodiola quadrifida (Pall.) Fisch. et Mey., which are National Grade II Protected Plants, were selected for this research. Based on high-resolution environmental data for the past, current, and future climate scenarios, we modeled the suitable habitat for four species by MaxEnt, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the growth distribution of R. coccinea, R. kirilowii, and R. quadrifida is most affected by bio10 (mean temperature of warmest quarter), bio3 (isothermality), and bio12 (annual precipitation), whereas that of R. gelida is most affected by bio8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter), bio13 (precipitation of wettest month), and bio16 (precipitation of wettest quarter). Under the current climate scenario, R. coccinea and R. quadrifida are primarily distributed in Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, and according to the 2070 climate scenario, the suitable habitats for both species are expected to expand. On the other hand, the suitable habitats for R. gelida and R. kirilowii, which are primarily concentrated in southwestern Xinjiang, Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, are projected to decrease under the 2070 climate scenario. Given these results, the four species included in our study urgently need to be subjected to targeted observation management to ensure the renewal of Rhodiola communities. In particular, R. gelida and R. kirilowii should be given more attention. This study provides a useful reference with valuable insights for developing effective management and conservation strategies for these four nationally protected plant species.

Thermography captures the differential sensitivity of dryland functional types to changes in rainfall event timing and magnitude

Drylands of the southwestern United States are rapidly warming, and rainfall is becoming less frequent and more intense, with major yet poorly understood implications for ecosystem structure and function. Thermography-based estimates of plant temperature can be integrated with air temperature to infer changes in plant physiology and response to climate change. However, very few studies have evaluated plant temperature dynamics at high spatiotemporal resolution in rainfall pulse-driven dryland ecosystems. We address this gap by incorporating high-frequency thermal imaging into a field-based precipitation manipulation experiment in a semi-arid grassland to investigate the impacts of rainfall temporal repackaging. All other factors held constant, we found that fewer/larger precipitation events led to cooler plant temperatures (1.4°C) compared to that of many/smaller precipitation events. Perennials, in particular, were 2.5°C cooler than annuals under the fewest/largest treatment. We show these patterns were driven by: increased and consistent soil moisture availability in the deeper soil layers in the fewest/largest treatment; and deeper roots of perennials providing access to deeper plant available water. Our findings highlight the potential for high spatiotemporal resolution thermography to quantify the differential sensitivity of plant functional groups to soil water availability. Detecting these sensitivities is vital to understanding the ecohydrological implications of hydroclimate change.

Incidence and Virulence Factor Profiling of Vibrio Species: A Study on Hospital and Community Wastewater Effluents

This study aimed to determine the incidence and virulence factor profiling of Vibrio species from hospital wastewater (HWW) and community wastewater effluents. Wastewater samples from selected sites were collected, processed, and analysed presumptively by the culture dependent methods and molecular techniques. A total of 270 isolates were confirmed as Vibrio genus delineating into V. cholerae (27%), V. parahaemolyticus (9.1%), V. vulnificus (4.1%), and V. fluvialis (3%). The remainder (>50%) may account for other Vibrio species not identified in the study. The four Vibrio species were isolated from secondary hospital wastewater effluent (SHWE), while V. cholerae was the sole specie isolated from Limbede community wastewater effluent (LCWE) and none of the four Vibrio species was recovered from tertiary hospital wastewater effluent (THWE). However, several virulence genes were identified among V. cholerae isolates from SHWE: ToxR (88%), hylA (81%), tcpA (64%), VPI (58%), ctx (44%), and ompU (34%). Virulence genes factors among V. cholerae isolates from LCWE were: ToxR (78%), ctx (67%), tcpA (44%), and hylA (44%). Two different genes (vfh and hupO) were identified in all confirmed V. fluvialis isolates. Among V. vulnificus, vcgA (50%) and vcgB (67%) were detected. In V. parahaemolyticus, tdh (56%) and tlh (100%) were also identified. This finding reveals that the studied aquatic niches pose serious potential health risk with Vibrio species harbouring virulence signatures. The distribution of virulence genes is valuable for ecological site quality, as well as epidemiological marker in the control and management of diseases caused by Vibrio species. Regular monitoring of HWW and communal wastewater effluent would allow relevant establishments to forecast, detect, and mitigate any public health threats in advance.

Future projection of climate extremes across contiguous northeast India and Bangladesh

In recent times, India has experienced a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly in northeast India (NEI), an area known for its rich natural resources. Despite the geographic continuity of NEI and Bangladesh, previous studies have failed to consider their interconnectedness, resulting in an incomplete understanding of the situation. To bridge this gap, a comprehensive study encompassed the entire NEI, including West Bengal and Bangladesh (hereafter referred to as NEIB). This study examined climate extremes in NEIB, utilizing 12 temperature-based and 8 precipitation-based indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Analysis was performed on temperature and precipitation data obtained from the India Meteorological Department and Bangladesh Meteorological Department covering the period 1981-2021. Additionally, climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models participating in the CMIP6 were incorporated for the period 2015-2100, considering four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Findings revealed that under the SSP585 scenario, a substantial rise of 4 °C in maximum temperatures and 5.5 °C in minimum temperatures by the end of the twenty-first century. Warming indices, such as the summer days index, indicated an expected increase of 53 days, while the Warm spell days index was estimated to rise by approximately 2 days. Heavy precipitation days (R20mm) were projected to increase by up to 14 days, with a notable impact in Meghalaya. While the number of rainy days is expected to decrease, the overall magnitude of precipitation is anticipated to remain relatively stable. Notably, the Simple daily intensity index demonstrated a rise of 2.4 mm/day compared to the current baseline of 14.4 mm/day. These projected changes have significant ramifications for water resources, agriculture, health, and infrastructure in the region.

Biospheric values as predictor of climate change risk perception: A multinational investigation

Climate change is one of the big challenges of our time. A better understanding of how individuals form their evaluation of the risk related to climate change seems to be key to win broad support for climate change mitigation efforts. Extant research indicates that biospheric values (BV) are an important antecedent of individuals' perception of the risk and consequences related to climate change. However, risk perception scholars have only recently started to study how BV relate to individuals' climate change risk perception (CCRP) and much is still to be learned about this relationship. The present study contributes to this growing literature by studying the BV-CCRP relationship in a multinational context. The results suggest that the BV - CCRP relationship varies in strength between different countries. These differences can be explained in part by societies' cultural leanings (i.e., individualism vs. collectivism) and societies' wealth. The present research adds to our understanding of why individuals in different countries perceive climate change related risk differently and how this perception is shaped differently by biospheric values in different countries. In this way, the findings help to build a more nuanced theory of how CCRP are formed. The presented results also have implications for policymakers and NGOs who wish to increase individuals' engagement with climate change and its consequences in different populations. In particular, the findings suggests that it might be necessary to use different strategies in different societies to achieve a greater awareness of climate change related risks.

An Efficient Neural Network Design Incorporating Autoencoders for the Classification of Bat Echolocation Sounds

Bats are widely distributed around the world, have adapted to many different environments and are highly sensitive to changes in their habitat, which makes them essential bioindicators of environmental changes. Passive acoustic monitoring over long durations, like months or years, accumulates large amounts of data, turning the manual identification process into a time-consuming task for human experts. Automated acoustic monitoring of bat activity is therefore an effective and necessary approach for bat conservation, especially in wind energy applications, where flying animals like bats and birds have high fatality rates. In this work, we provide a neural-network-based approach for bat echolocation pulse detection with subsequent genus classification and species classification under real-world conditions, including various types of noise. Our supervised model is supported by an unsupervised learning pipeline that uses autoencoders to compress linear spectrograms into latent feature vectors that are fed into a UMAP clustering algorithm. This pipeline offers additional insights into the data properties, aiding in model interpretation. We compare data collected from two locations over two consecutive years sampled at four heights (10 m, 35 m, 65 m and 95 m). With sufficient data for each labeled bat class, our model is able to comprehend the full echolocation soundscape of a species or genus while still being computationally efficient and simple by design. Measured classification F1 scores in a previously unknown test set range from 92.3% to 99.7% for species and from 94.6% to 99.4% for genera.

Assessment of soil- and water-related ecosystem services with coupling the factors of climate and land-use change (Example of the Nitra region, Slovakia)

Climate and land use change can profoundly impact the provision of ecosystem services (ES) over time, particularly in the landscape of open fields along with growing urbanization and rising demand for space, food and energy. Policymakers are keen on knowing the combined effects of climate and land use change on ESs as a critical issue in human well-being. However, deep knowledge of how to identify these relationships is still lacking. This research aims to undertake a comprehensive assessment of soil- and water-related ES, and improvement in understanding how they are affected by climate and land use change. We applied the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model for four ES (soil retention, nutrient delivery ratio, carbon storage, and water yield) for the years 2000 and 2018 in the Nitra region, Slovakia. We investigated the spatial and temporal changes in ES provision and determined the hotspots and coldspots of multiple ES. We found that soil retention, water yield, and carbon storage display a rising trend while the nutrient delivery ratio showed a decreasing trend over the past 18 years. Although all the mentioned services mainly attributed to land use change, the relative contribution of climate change was not deniable. Forests in the north and east and distributed urbanization and agriculture are the hotspots and coldspots for all ESs, respectively. Our results, in terms of determining the relative importance of land use and climate change and identifying the sensitive areas of ES provision, provide a scientific basis for ecosystem conservation and management priority setting at the local and regional levels.

Buchanania cochinchinensis (Lour.) M.R. Almedia habitat exhibited robust adaptability to diverse socioeconomic scenarios in eastern India

One of the greatest challenges to ecosystems is the rapidity of climate change, and their ability to adjust swiftly will be constrained. Climate change will disrupt the ecological balances, causing species to track suitable habitats for survival. Consequently, understanding the species' response to climate change is crucial for its conservation and management, and for enhancing biodiversity through effective management. This research intends to examine the response of the vulnerable Buchanania cochinchinensis species to climate change. We modeled the potential suitable habitats of B. cochinchinensis for the present and future climatic scenario proxies based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), i.e. SSP126, 245, 370 and 585. Maxent was used to simulate the potential habitats of B. cochinchinensis. The study found that ~28,313 km2 (~10.7% of the study area) was a potentially suitable habitat of B. cochinchinensis for the current scenario. The majority of the suitable habitat area ~25,169 km2 occurred in the central and southern parts of the study area. The future projection shows that the suitable habitat to largely increase in the range of 10.5-20% across all the SSPs, with a maximum gain of ~20% for SSP 126. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio_08) was the most influential contributing variable in limiting the distribution of B. cochinchinensis. The majority of the suitable habitat area occurred in the vegetation landscape. The study shows a southward shifting of B. cochinchinensis habitat by 2050. The phytosociological analysis determined B. cochinchinensis as Shorea robusta's primary associate. Our research provides significant insight into the prospective distribution scenario of B. cochinchinensis habitat and its response to diverse socioeconomic scenarios, and offers a solid foundation for management of this extremely important species.

Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Forest Carbon Storage in a Tropical/Subtropical Island with Multiple Ecozones

Visual data on the geographic distribution of carbon storage help policy makers to formulate countermeasures for global warming. However, Taiwan, as an island showing diversity in climate and topography, had lacked valid visual data on the distribution of forest carbon storage between the last two forest surveys (1993-2015). This study established a model to estimate and illustrate the distribution of forest carbon storage. This model uses land use, stand morphology, and carbon conversion coefficient databases accordingly for 51 types of major forests in Taiwan. An estimation in 2006 was conducted and shows an overall carbon storage of 165.65 Mt C, with forest carbon storage per unit area of 71.56 t C ha-1, where natural forests and plantations respectively contributed 114.15 Mt C (68.9%) and 51.50 Mt C (31.1%). By assuming no change in land use type, the carbon sequestration from 2006 to 2007 by the 51 forest types was estimated to be 5.21 Mt C yr-1 using historical tree growth and mortality rates. The result reflects the reality of the land use status and the events of coverage shifting with time by combining the two forest surveys in Taiwan.

Neutral Forces and Balancing Selection Interplay to Shape the Major Histocompatibility Complex Spatial Patterns in the Striped Hamster in Inner Mongolia: Suggestive of Broad-Scale Local Adaptation

BACKGROUND

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) plays a key role in the adaptive immune response to pathogens due to its extraordinary polymorphism. However, the spatial patterns of MHC variation in the striped hamster remain unclear, particularly regarding the relative contribution of the balancing selection in shaping MHC spatial variation and diversity compared to neutral forces.

METHODS

In this study, we investigated the immunogenic variation of the striped hamster in four wild populations in Inner Mongolia which experience a heterogeneous parasitic burden. Our goal was to identify local adaptation by comparing the genetic structure at the MHC with that at seven microsatellite loci, taking into account neutral processes.

RESULTS

We observed significant variation in parasite pressure among sites, with parasite burden showing a correlation with temperature and precipitation. Molecular analysis revealed a similar co-structure between MHC and microsatellite loci. We observed lower genetic differentiation at MHC loci compared to microsatellite loci, and no correlation was found between the two.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, these results suggest a complex interplay between neutral evolutionary forces and balancing selection in shaping the spatial patterns of MHC variation. Local adaptation was not detected on a small scale but may be applicable on a larger scale.

Analysis of the relationship between supply-demand matching of selected ecosystem services and urban spatial governance: a case study of Suzhou, China

The mismatch between the supply and demand of ecosystem services has become a critical cause of the decline of urban ecological security. Studying the supply-demand matching of ecosystem services and exploring its association with urban spatial governance are imperative for ensuring sustainable urbanization. Taking Suzhou City as a case, the supply and demand values and matching degrees of five selected ecosystem services were assessed. Additionally, we explored the relationship between ecosystem services and urban spatial governance, with a focus on urban functional zoning. The findings indicate that first, the supply value of water production, food production, carbon sequestration, and tourism and leisure fall short of the demand value, while the supply value of air purification exceeds the demand value. The spatial matching of supply and demand shows a typical circular structure, with areas in short supply predominantly located in the downtown area and its vicinity. Second, the degree of coupling coordination between the supply-demand ratio of selected ecosystem services and the intensity of ecological control is low. Urban functional zoning can affect the supply-demand relationship of selected ecosystem services, and intensified development efforts can exacerbate the mismatch between supply and demand. Third, research on the supply-demand matching of selected ecosystem services can facilitate the assessment and regulation of urban functional zoning. Urban spatial governance can be regulated based on land use, industry, and population, with a focus on achieving a better supply-demand matching of ecosystem services. Through the analysis, this paper is aimed to provide reference for mitigating urban environmental problems and formulating sustainable urban development strategies.

Conservation linkages of endangered medicinal plant and exploration of phytochemicals, pharmaceutical screening and in silico validation against diabetics using in vivo wild and in vitro regenerated plant Boucerosia diffusa Wight

Boucerosia diffusa Wight. is an important endangered medicinal plant belonging to the family Asclepiadaceae. In this study, an efficient protocol has been developed for B. diffusa using nodal explants for callus induction and direct organogenesis. The optimal callus induction (83.7%) was observed on 0.6 mg/L 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) in Murashige and Skoog medium. The shoot regeneration was observed on different concentrations and combinations of 6-benzylaminopurine (BAP) and 2,4-D using shoot induction (88.5%) was observed on 0.5 mg/L BAP and 0.6 mg/L 2,4-D. Maximum root induction frequency (85.6%) was obtained on 0.6 mg/L α-naphthalene-acetic acid (NAA) and 0.5 mg/L BAP. The fully developed plants were acclimatized (98.86% survival rate) and transferred to natural photoperiod conditions. The phytochemical and pharmacological activity was determined in in vitro-regenerated plants (IRP) and was compared to in vivo wild plants (IWP). The primary and the secondary metabolite contents of bioactive compounds were significantly higher in the methanolic extract of IRP. A comparative antioxidant activity study shows IRP exhibited better scavenging activity. The antidiabetic activity of α- amylase (IC50 - 71.56 ± 15.4 µg/mL) and α-glucosidase (IC50 - 82.94 ± 12.84 µg/mL) inhibitor activity also exhibited maximum in methanolic extract of IRP. Furthermore, chemical composition was analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS). Antibacterial activity against human pathogenic bacteria, IRP methanolic extracts showed a maximum zone of inhibition (75 µg/mL) observed against Salmonella typhi (23.5 ± 0.5 mm) compared to the IWP. Molecular docking analysis of B. diffusa inhibition of antidiabetic activity showed better affinity in β-Sitosterol.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13205-023-03645-5.

Twenty-eight years of ecosystem recovery and destabilisation: Impacts of biological invasions and climate change on a temperate river

Most river ecosystems are exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors affecting the composition and functionality of benthic communities. Identifying main causes and detecting potentially alarming trends in time depends on the availability of long-term monitoring data sets. Our study aimed to improve the knowledge about community effects of multiple stressors that is needed for effective, sustainable management and conservation. We conducted a causal analysis to detect the dominant stressors and hypothesised that multiple stressors, such as climate change and multiple biological invasions, reduce biodiversity and thus endanger ecosystem stability. Using a data set from 1992 to 2019 for the benthic macroinvertebrate community of a 65-km stretch of the upper Elbe river in Germany, we evaluated the effects of alien species, temperature, discharge, phosphorus, pH and abiotic conditional variables on the taxonomic and functional composition of the benthic community and analysed the temporal behaviour of biodiversity metrics. We observed fundamental taxonomic and functional changes in the community, with a shift from collectors/gatherers to filter feeders and feeding opportunists preferring warm temperatures. A partial dbRDA revealed significant effects of temperature and alien species abundance and richness. The occurrence of distinct phases in the development of community metrics suggests a temporally varying impact of different stressors. Taxonomic and functional richness responded more sensitively than the diversity metrics whereas the functional redundancy metric remained unchanged. Especially the last 10-year phase, however, showed a decline in richness metrics and an unsaturated, linear relationship between taxonomic and functional richness, which rather indicates reduced functional redundancy. We conclude that the varying anthropogenic stressors over three decades, mainly biological invasions and climate change, affected the community severely enough to increase its vulnerability to future stressors. Our study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring data and emphasises a careful use of biodiversity metrics, preferably considering also community composition.

Honey Production and Climate Change: Beekeepers' Perceptions, Farm Adaptation Strategies, and Information Needs

Because climate change has severely impacted global bee populations by depleting their habitats and food sources, beekeepers must implement management practices to adapt to changing climates. However, beekeepers in El Salvador lack information about necessary climate change adaptation strategies. This study explored Salvadoran beekeepers' experiences adapting to climate change. The researchers used a phenomenological case study approach and conducted semi-structured interviews with nine Salvadoran beekeepers who were members of The Cooperative Association for Marketing, Production, Savings, and Credit of Beekeepers of Chalatenango (ACCOPIDECHA). The beekeepers perceived water and food scarcity, as well as extreme weather events (e.g., increasing temperature, rain, winds), as the leading climate change-induced challenges to their production. Such challenges have augmented their honey bees' physiological need for water, limited their movement patterns, decreased apiary safety, and increased the incidence of pests and diseases, all of which have led to honey bee mortality. The beekeepers shared adaptation strategies, including box modification, apiary relocation, and food supplementation. Although most beekeepers accessed climate change information using the internet, they struggled to understand and apply pertinent information unless they received it from trusted ACCOPIDECHA personnel. Salvadoran beekeepers require information and demonstrations to improve their climate change adaptation strategies and implement new ones to address the challenges they experience.

Influences of Maternal Weight and Geographic Factors on Offspring Traits of the Edible Dormouse in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula

The main goal of this study was to analyze the reproductive patterns of edible dormouse (Glis glis) populations in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula using an 18-year period of data obtained from nest boxes collected between 2004 and 2021. The average litter size in Catalonia (Spain) was 5.5 ± 1.60 (range: 2-9, n = 131), with litter sizes between 5 and 7 pups as the more frequent. The overall mean weight in pink, grey and open eyes pups was 4.8 g/pup, 11.7 g/pup and 23.6 g/pup, respectively. No differences in offspring weights between sexes were found in any of the three age groups. Maternal body weight was positively associated with mean pup weight, whereas no correlation between the weight of the mothers and litter size was found. The trade-off between offspring number and size was not detected at birth. Regarding litter size variation across the geographic gradient (and their climatic gradient associated) from the southernmost populations of the Iberian Peninsula located in Catalonia to the Pyrenees region in Andorra, no evidence to suggest that geographic variables affect litter size was found, discarding (1) an investment in larger litters to compensate shorter seasons related to higher altitudes or northern latitudes, and (2) variation in litter size related to weather changes (e.g., temperature and precipitation) along latitudinal and/or altitudinal gradients.

Predicted changes in future precipitation and air temperature across Bangladesh using CMIP6 GCMs

Understanding spatiotemporal variability in precipitation and temperature and their future projections is critical for assessing environmental hazards and planning long-term mitigation and adaptation. In this study, 18 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were employed to project the mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation, maximum air temperature (Tmax), and minimum air temperature (Tmin) in Bangladesh. The GCM projections were bias-corrected using the Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) technique. Using the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) mean of the bias-corrected dataset, the expected changes for the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were evaluated for the near (2015-2044), mid (2045-2074), and far (2075-2100) futures in comparison to the historical period (1985-2014). In the far future, the anticipated average annual precipitation increased by 9.48%, 13.63%, 21.07%, and 30.90%, while the average Tmax (Tmin) rose by 1.09 (1.17), 1.60 (1.91), 2.12 (2.80), and 2.99 (3.69) °C for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. According to predictions for the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the distant future, there is expected to be a substantial rise in precipitation (41.98%) during the post-monsoon season. In contrast, winter precipitation was predicted to decrease most (11.12%) in the mid-future for SSP3-7.0, while to increase most (15.62%) in the far-future for SSP1-2.6. Tmax (Tmin) was predicted to rise most in the winter and least in the monsoon for all periods and scenarios. Tmin increased more rapidly than Tmax in all seasons for all SSPs. The projected changes could lead to more frequent and severe flooding, landslides, and negative impacts on human health, agriculture, and ecosystems. The study highlights the need for localized and context-specific adaptation strategies as different regions of Bangladesh will be affected differently by these changes.

Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system

Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.

Streams in the Mediterranean Region are not for mussels: Predicting extinctions and range contractions under future climate change

Climate change is becoming the leading driver of biodiversity loss. The Mediterranean region, particularly southwestern Europe, is already confronting the consequences of ongoing global warming. Unprecedented biodiversity declines have been recorded, particularly within freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater mussels contribute to essential ecosystem services but are among the most threatened faunal groups on Earth. Their poor conservation status is related to the dependence on fish hosts to complete the life cycle, which also makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict species distributions, but often disregard the potential effect of biotic interactions. This study investigated the potential impact of future climate on the distribution of freshwater mussel species while considering their obligatory interaction with fish hosts. Specifically, ensemble models were used to forecast the current and future distribution of six mussel species in the Iberian Peninsula, including environmental conditions and the distribution of fish hosts as predictors. We found that climate change is expected to severely impact the future distribution of Iberian mussels. Species with narrow ranges, namely Margaritifera margaritifera and Unio tumidiformis, were predicted to have their suitable habitats nearly lost and could potentially be facing regional and global extinctions, respectively. Anodonta anatina, Potomida littoralis, and particularly Unio delphinus and Unio mancus, are expected to suffer distributional losses but may gain new suitable habitats. A shift in their distribution to new suitable areas is only possible if fish hosts are able to disperse while carrying larvae. We also found that including the distribution of fish hosts in the mussels' models avoided the underprediction of habitat loss under climate change. This study warns of the imminent loss of mussel species and populations and the urgent need of management actions to reverse current trends and mitigate irreversible damage to species and ecosystems in Mediterranean regions.

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts

BACKGROUND

Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species' ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence.

METHODS

We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts?

REVIEW FINDINGS

We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

Plant Species' Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.

Common snowdrop as a climate change bioindicator in Czechia

The phenological response to climate change differs among species. We examined the beginning of flowering of the common snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis) in connection with meteorological variables in Czechia in the period 1923-2021. The long-term series were analyzed from phenological and meteorological stations of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). Temporal and spatial evaluation (using Geographic Information System) in timing of beginning of flowering (BBCH 61) of G. nivalis was investigated under urban and rural settings. Furthermore, the detailed analysis of selected meteorological variables to onset of G. nivalis flowering was performed. Moreover, the trends (using Mann-Kendall test) and Pearson's correlation coefficients between phenological phase and meteorological variable were calculated. The main finding of this study was that the trend of the beginning of flowering of the common snowdrop during the studied period (1923-2021) is negative, and it varies in urban and rural environments. The results showed most significant acceleration of the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis by - 0.20 day year^-1 in urban area and by - 0.11 day year^-1 in rural area. Above that, a major turning point occurred between 1987 and 1988 (both, in phenological observations and meteorological variables), and the variability of the beginning of flowering is significantly higher in the second period 1988-2021. On top of, the study proved that the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis closely correlated with number of days with snow cover above 1 cm (December-March) at both types of stations (urban and rural), and with mean air temperature in February, maximum air temperature in January, and minimum air temperature in March. The Mann-Kendall test showed a reduction in the number of days with snow cover above 1 cm (December-March) during 99 years period at Klatovy station (a long-term time series) by - 0.06 day year^-1, i.e., by - 5.94 days per the whole period. Conversely, air temperatures increase (maximum and minimum air temperature by 0.03 °C year^-1 (2.97 °C per the whole period) and average air temperature by 0.02 °C year^-1 (1.98 °C per the whole period)). Thus, our results indicate significant changes in the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis in Czechia as a consequence of climate change.

The role of land use change in affecting ecosystem services and the ecological security pattern of the Hexi Regions, Northwest China

The land use and land cover change (LUCC) associated with climate change and human activities is supposed to exert a significant effect on ecosystem functions in arid inland regions. However, the role of LUCC in shaping the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem services and ecological security remain unclear, especially under different future LUCC scenarios. Here, we evaluated dynamic changes of ecosystem services and ecological security pattern (ESP) in the Hexi Regions based on LUCC and other environment variables by integrating morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), entropy weight method and circuit theory. Our result showed that the LUCC was generally stable from 1980 to 2050. Compare to 2020, the land conversion under natural growth (NG), ecological protection (EP) and urban development (UD) scenarios in 2050 has changed by 10.30 %, 10.10 %, and 10.31 %, respectively. The forest, medium-cover grassland and water increased in the EP scenario, and construction land and cropland greatly expanded in the other two scenarios. Ecosystem services grew larger in the EP scenario by 2050 in comparison with the NG and UD scenarios. The ESP in the Hexi Regions has obvious spatial differences during 1980-2050. The larger ecological sources and less resistance corridors were mainly distributed in the central and eastern of the Hexi Regions with high ecosystem services. Conversely, fragmented ecological sources and larger resistance corridors were mostly located in the western regions blocked by sandy land, bare land or mountains. Compared to 2020, the area of ecological sources and pinch points under the EP scenario in 2050 increased by 4.10 × 10³ km² and 0.31 × 10³ km², respectively. The number of ecological corridors reduced while the length and resistance increased apart from the EP scenario. Our results highlighted the importance of ecological protection in shaping the LUCC, which further enhances the integrity of ecosystem and ecological security.

The impact of land use and land cover changes on the landscape pattern and ecosystem service value in Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Decades of intensifying human activities have caused dramatic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the ecologically fragile areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which have led to significant changes in ecosystem service value (ESV). Taking the ecologically fragile Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research object, we focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the Sanjiangyuan's landscape pattern and its corresponding ESV, which was combined with a Markov-Plus model to predict LULC changes in 2030. The results showed: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the LULC of Sanjiangyuan has changed to varying degrees, respectively. In the central and southern regions where animal husbandry is the mainstay activity, the area of grass land converted to bareland had expanded; (2) from 2000 to 2010, the total regional ESV increased sharply. However, the total amount of ESV decreased from 2010 to 2020; (3) the overall ESV in the study area was observed to be trending down and is expected to decrease by approximately 4.25 billion CNY by 2030; (4) the fragmentation and complexity of regional landscape patterns will negatively affect local ecosystem stability and biodiversity. Overall, there is a strong temporal and spatial correlation between LULC and ESV. This study will provide a reference for the local government to provide targeted and sustainable land management policies, thereby promoting the improvement of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau regional ecology value.

CD4 and IL-2 mediated NK cell responses after COVID-19 infection and mRNA vaccination in adults

A detailed understanding of protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 is incredibly important in fighting the pandemic. Central to protective immunity is the ability of the immune system to recall previous exposures. Although antibody and T cell immunity have gained considerable attention, the contribution of the NK cell compartment to immune recall and protection from SARS-CoV-2 has not been explored. In this study, we investigate the NK cell responses to stimulation with SARS-CoV-2 in previously exposed and non-exposed individuals. We show that NK cells demonstrate an enhanced CD4+ T cell dependent response when re-exposed to SARS-CoV-2 antigen. The enhanced response is dependent on T cells and correlates with the number of SARS-CoV-2 specific CD4 T cells. We find that IL-2 is a critical mediator of NK cell function. These findings suggest that NK cells contribute to the protective responses against SARS-CoV-2 through a cooperation with antigen-specific CD4 T cells and have significant implications on our understanding of protective immunity in SARS-CoV-2.

Field-testing effectiveness of window markers in reducing bird-window collisions

Bird-window collisions are a major source of human-caused mortality for which there are multiple mitigation and prevention options available. Despite growing availability of products designed to reduce collisions (e.g., glass with etched patterns or markers and films adhered over existing glass), few replicated field tests have been conducted to assess their effectiveness after installation on glass. We conducted a field study to evaluate the effectiveness of a commercially marketed product (Feather Friendly® markers) in reducing bird-window collisions at glass-walled bus shelters in Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA. This study included a before-after control-impact (BACI) analysis comparing numbers of collisions at 18 bus shelters in both pre-treatment (2016) and post-treatment (2020) periods, and an analysis comparing 18 treated and 18 untreated shelters during 2020. For the BACI analysis, collisions were significantly reduced between 2016 and 2020 at shelters treated with the Feather Friendly® markers even though collisions increased at shelters that remained untreated. For the 2020 analysis, there were significantly fewer collisions at treated than untreated shelters. Relative to a baseline study in 2016, we estimated that treating half of Stillwater's bus shelters resulted in a 64% reduction in total annual bird collisions. Together, these analyses provide a rigorous field test of the effectiveness of this treatment option in reducing bird-window collisions. Our research provides a model for similar studies at both bus shelters and buildings to evaluate and compare products designed to reduce bird-window collisions, and therefore, contribute to reducing this major mortality source affecting bird populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11252-022-01304-w.

Climate change threatens the distribution of major woody species and ecosystem services provision in southern Africa

In southern Africa, woody vegetation provides essential ecological, regulation, and cultural ecosystem services (ES), yet many species and ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change and land-use transformations. We investigated the effect of climate change on the distribution of eight species in 18 countries in southern Africa, covering 36% of the continent. We proposed a loser/winner ranking of the species based on the changes in land climatic suitability within their historical distribution and future gains and losses of suitable areas. We interpreted these findings in terms of changes in key ES (timber, food, and energy) provision and identified hotspots of ES provision decline. We used species presence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, climatic data from the AfriClim dataset, and the MaxEnt algorithm to project the changes in species-specific land climatic suitability. Among the eight investigated species, the baseline suitability range of Mopane (Colophosperm mopane) was least affected by climate change. At the same time, the area of its future distribution was projected to double, rendering it a regional winner. Another two species, manketti (Schinziophyton rautanenii) and leadwood (Combretum imberbe) showed high future gains too; however, the impact on their baseline suitability range differed between the climatic scenarios. The baseline range of African rosewood (Guibourtia coleosperma) declined entirely, and the future gains were negligible, rendering the species a regional loser. The effect of climate change was particularly severe on timber-producing species (four out of eight species), while species providing food (four species) and energy (four species) were affected less. Our projections portrayed distinct hotspot and coldspot areas, where climatic suitability for multiple species was concurrently projected to decline or persist. This assessment can inform spatially targeted adaptation and conservation actions and strategies, which are currently lacking in many African regions.

Morpho-physiological and demographic responses of three threatened Ilex species to changing climate aligned with species distribution models in future climate scenarios

The success of a species in future climate change scenarios depends on its morphological, physiological, and demographic adaptive responses to changing climate. The existence of threatened species against climate adversaries is constrained due to their small population size, narrow genetic base, and narrow niche breadth. We examined if ecological niche model (ENM)-based distribution predictions of species align with their morpho-physiological and demographic responses to future climate change scenarios. We studied three threatened Ilex species, viz., Ilex khasiana Purkay., I. venulosa Hook. f., and I. embelioides Hook. F, with restricted distribution in Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. Demographic analysis of the natural populations of each species in Meghalaya, India revealed an upright pyramid suggesting a stable population under the present climate scenario. I. khasiana was confined to higher elevations only while I. venulosa and I. embelioides had wider altitudinal distribution ranges. The bio-climatic niche of I. khasiana was narrow, while the other two species had relatively broader niches. The ENM-predicted potential distribution areas under the current (2022) and future (2050) climatic scenarios (General Circulation Models (GCMs): IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO) revealed that the distribution of highly suitable areas for the most climate-sensitive I. khasiana got drastically reduced. In I. venulosa and I. embelioides, there was an increase in highly suitable areas under the future scenarios. The eco-physiological studies showed marked variation among the species, sites, and treatments (p < 0.05), indicating the differential responses of the three species to varied climate scenarios, but followed a similar trend in species performance aligning with the model predictions.

Planktothrix agardhii versus Planktothrix rubescens: Separation of Ecological Niches and Consequences of Cyanobacterial Dominance in Freshwater

Cyanobacteria dominate lakes under diverse trophic conditions. Of these, two harmful filamentous cyanobacterial species, namely Planktothrix agardhii and P. rubescens, occupy completely different ecological niches in which they can form dense populations. In the present study, we investigated the effects of environmental conditions on the growth and vertical distribution of these species in lakes of different trophic statuses. Moreover, we underscored certain inconveniences in the assessment of the ecological status of lakes according to the European Union Water Framework Directive. The highest biomass of P. agardhii was recorded in eutrophic lake at a depth of 0.5-1 m, under high light intensity. Meanwhile, the highest biomass of P. rubescens, at which the deep chlorophyll maximum was recorded, was observed in mesotrophic lakes at a depth of 11-12 m, often below the euphotic zone under very low light intensity. P. rubescens, but not P. agardhii, exerted a strong allelopathic effect on the diversity and biomass of phytoplankton. Moreover, both species utilised different dissolved nitrogen fractions for their growth; specifically, P. agardhii used ammonium nitrogen, whilst P. rubescens used nitrate nitrogen. Furthermore, dissolved phosphorus produced a potentially limiting effect on P. rubescens growth. Overall, the tested Polish PMPL, German PSI, and Estonian phytoplankton indices were indeed useful in the assessment of the ecological status of lakes, albeit limited to the eutrophic lake with a high biomass of cyanobacteria (P. agardhii) in the upper water layers. However, problems arose in the proper assessment of lakes with a high biomass of cyanobacteria (P. rubescens) with a deep chlorophyll maximum outside the range of the euphotic zone. In such cases, two of the tested indices, namely the Polish and German indices, allowed sample collection from the euphotic layers, which significantly affected the number of samples included in the calculation. Consequently, the correct calculation of the ecological status of the lake was uncertain. Only the Estonian index allowed for a sample collection from two to three thermal layers of water, including the bloom layer of P. rubescens. Hence, the Estonian index offered the best fit for calculations.

The diadromous watersheds-ocean continuum: Managing diadromous fish as a community for ecosystem resilience

Diadromous fishes play important ecological roles by delivering ecosystem services and making crucial connections along the watersheds-ocean continuum. However, it is difficult to fully understand the community-level impacts and cumulative benefits of diadromous fish migrations, as these species are most often considered individually or in small groups. Their interactions at a community level (e.g., interdependencies such as predation, co-migration, and habitat conditioning) and the connections between their ecosystem roles and functions (e.g., cumulative marine-derived nutrient contributions, impacts on stream geomorphology) are yet to be fully understood. Similarly, freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems are often considered as independent parts, limiting understanding of the importance of connections across systems. We argue that not considering the ecosystem interdependence and importance of diadromous fish as a community currently hinders the implementation of the large-scale management required to increase ecosystem resilience and fish productivity across the full range of these species. We developed a conceptual model, the Diadromous Watersheds-Ocean Continuum (DWOC), that uses ecosystem services to promote a more holistic approach to the management of the diadromous community and encourages an integrated understanding of the ecosystem connections made by these species. DWOC provides a framework for discussions that can help identify research and management needs, discuss the trade-offs of different management options, and analyze what pressing questions impede the implementation of large-scale management solutions toward a more ecosystem-based management approach.

Forest microclimate and composition mediate long-term trends of breeding bird populations

Climate change is contributing to biodiversity redistributions and species declines. However, cooler microclimate conditions provided by old-growth forest structures compared with surrounding open or younger forests have been hypothesized to provide thermal refugia for species that are sensitive to climate warming and dampen the negative effects of warming on population trends of animals (i.e., the microclimate buffering hypothesis). In addition to thermal refugia, the compositional and structural diversity of old-growth forest vegetation itself may provide resources to species that are less available in forests with simpler structure (i.e., the insurance hypothesis). We used 8 years of breeding bird abundance data from a forested watershed, accompanied with sub-canopy temperature data, and ground- and LiDAR-based vegetation data to test these hypotheses and identify factors influencing bird population changes from 2011 to 2018. After accounting for imperfect detection, we found that for 5 of 20 bird species analyzed, abundance trends tended to be less negative or neutral at sites with cooler microclimates, which supports the microclimate buffering hypothesis. Negative effects of warming on two species were also reduced in locations with greater forest compositional diversity supporting the insurance hypothesis. We provide the first empirical evidence that complex forest structure and vegetation diversity confer microclimatic advantages to some animal populations in the face of climate change. Conservation of old-growth forests, or their characteristics in managed forests, could help slow the negative effects of climate warming on some breeding bird populations via microclimate buffering and possibly insurance effects.

Threats, challenges and sustainable conservation strategies for freshwater biodiversity

Increasing human population, deforestation and man-made climate change are likely to exacerbate the negative effects on freshwater ecosystems and species endangerment. Consequently, the biodiversity of freshwater continues to dwindle at an alarming rate. However, this particular topic lacks sufficient attention from conservation ecologists and policymakers, resulting in a dearth of data and comprehensive reviews on freshwater biodiversity, specifically. Despite the widespread awareness of risks to freshwater biodiversity, organized action to reverse this decline has been lacking. This study reviews prospective conservation and management strategies for freshwater biodiversity and their associated challenges, identifying current key threats to freshwater biodiversity. Engineered nanomaterials pose a significant threat to aquatic species, and will make controlling health risks to freshwater biodiversity increasingly challenging in the future. When fish are exposed to nanoparticles, the surface area of their respiratory and ion transport systems can decline to 60% of their total surface area, posing serious health risks. Also, about 50% of freshwater fish species are threatened by climate change, globally. Freshwater biodiversity that is heavily reliant on calcium perishes when the calcium content of their environments degrades, posing another severe threat to world biodiversity. To improve biodiversity, variables such as species diversity, population and water quality, and habitat are essential components that must be monitored continuously. Existing research on freshwater biota and ecosystems is still lacking. Therefore, data collection and the establishment of specialized policies for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity should be prioritized.