Sexual mixing patterns and sex-differentials in teenage exposure to HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe

"Eat and you will be eaten": a qualitative study exploring costs and benefits of age-disparate sexual relationships in Tanzania and Uganda: implications for girls' sexual and reproductive health interventions

BACKGROUND

Age-disparate sex is associated with increased HIV risk among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in sub-Saharan Africa. However, little has been done to understand the dynamics of such relationships from the perspectives of either AGYW or older men, and the communities in which these relationships are embedded. This article explores the motivations and perceived benefits of such relationships for AGYW and older men, plus the social and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) consequences.

METHODS

This study held 37 participatory focus group discussions and 87 in-depth interviews with young people aged 14-24 and adult community members aged 25-49 in rural and urban Tanzania and Uganda. Participants were sampled using purposive and snowball techniques. Thematic analysis was conducted with the aid of NVIVO 10 software.

RESULTS

Motivations, perceived benefits and costs for AGYW centred around four main themes: financial motivations, emotional support, meeting social expectations and reflections on sexual health. Specifically, AGYW noted that older partners gave gifts/money of higher value compared with younger men. Men's perceived benefits and costs revolved around the need to satisfy their sexual desire, the perception that AGYW were capable of engaging in new and creative sexual styles and their desire for prestige among male peers. Both AGYW and men recognised the social and SRH consequences as: risk of violence, social stigma, risk of unplanned pregnancy and risk of sexually transmitted infections including HIV.

CONCLUSION

Interventions need to acknowledge the perceived benefits of age-disparate sexual relationships for AGYW and older men and engage them in critical reflection on the medium- to longer-term consequences versus the shorter-term satisfaction of needs, desires and aspirations, as a way to navigate the constrained opportunities they face given existing structural limitations. Interventions should also tackle the structural constraints AGYW face by helping them access resources, become empowered and challenge the expectation of having to depend financially on men. Interventions with men should unpack the assumption that men are naturally hypersexual. The role of peers for both girls and men should be acknowledged, and a shift from individual targeted interventions to changing norms at the community level should be considered.

Capturing sexual contact patterns in modelling the spread of sexually transmitted infections: Evidence using Natsal-3

BACKGROUND

Understanding the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in a population is of great importance to the planning and delivery of health services globally. The worldwide rise of HIV since the 1980's, and the recent increase in common STIs (including HPV and Chlamydia) in many countries, means that there is an urgent need to understand transmission dynamics in order to better predict the spread of such infections in the population. Unlike many other infections which can be captured by assumptions of random mixing, STI transmission is intimately linked to the number and pattern of sexual contacts. In fact, it is the huge variation in the number of new sexual partners that gives rise to the extremes of risk within populations which need to be captured in predictive models of STI transmission. Such models are vital in providing the necessary scientific evidence to determine whether a range of controls (from education to screening to vaccination) are cost-effective.

METHOD AND RESULTS

We use probability sample survey data from Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) to determine robust distributions for the rate of new partnerships that involve condomless sex and can therefore facilitate the spread of STIs. Different distributions are defined depending on four individual-level characteristics: age, sex, sexual orientation, and previous sexual experience. As individual behaviour patterns can change (e.g. by remaining in a monogamous relationship for a long period) we allow risk-percentiles to be randomly redrawn, to capture longer term behaviour as measured by Natsal-3. We demonstrate how this model formulation interacts with the transmission of infection by constructing an individual-based SIS-P (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible-Protected) transmission model for the spread of a generic STI, and observing overall population demographics when varying the transmission probability within a partnership, recovery rate and the level of population protection (e.g. from vaccination where applicable).

Out of school female adolescent employment status and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) risk in Uganda: is it a plausible relationship?

BACKGROUND

High prevalence of Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) among adolescents is a serious public health concern. Although many factors are attributed to adolescents' risk of STI infections, the association between out of school adolescents' employment status and STIs has not been thoroughly explored in Uganda, yet many adolescents are known to be employed. Consequently, the extent to which adolescents' employment status may be a risk factor for unprotected sex and STIs among female adolescents is unclear. This study examines the association between female out of school adolescents' employment status and STI status using the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) data for 2016.

METHODS

Both descriptive and multilevel binary logistic regressions were used to analyse the data. The descriptive statistics provided an overview of the association between the two main variables while the multilevel binary logistic estimated the relationship between employment status and STI status, while controlling for other fixed factors and community random factors.

RESULTS

Compared to female adolescents who were not employed or not working, the odds of reporting positive STIs were significantly higher for female adolescents who were working but received no pay (1.801(95% CI = 1.105-2.936), were self-employed in agriculture (1.502 (95% CI = 1.003-2.250) and who did manual jobs (2.258(95% CI = 1.429-3.568) whether skilled or not. Likewise, female adolescents who had two or more lifetime sexual partners (11.679 (95% CI = 1.254-2.248) had significantly higher odds of reporting STIs than those who had only one lifetime sexual partner.

CONCLUSION

Out of school female adolescents who are employed in various types of low wage employments are at greater risk of exposure to STIs than their counterparts who do not work in Uganda. Instead of being a protective factor against the risk of STIs, their employment may expose them to risky sexual behaviour and STIs, given the vulnerabilities female adolescents who have dropped out of school tend to report. Therefore, the provision of decent employment opportunities for these females may provide an avenue for instructional scaffolding to build the life skills and empower these females so that they are better able to reduce their exposure to STIs.

Population HIV transmission risk for serodiscordant couples in Guangxi, Southern China: A cohort study

We evaluated the risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among serodiscordant couples with low adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART).Data of heterosexual couples/partners in 2010 were extracted from an Internet-based system. Participants were then followed over the course of a year with 6- and 12-month assessments. Prevalence and density of HIV seroconversion were calculated for spouses/partners who did not have a positive HIV test results at baseline. We calculated the transmission odds ratio (OR) value stratified by personal characteristics and behavioral correlates at 6- and 12-month follow-up, as well as seroconversion in spouses/partners over the year.A total of 5544 HIV/AIDS patients and their spouses/partners were recruited in this cohort. Incidence of HIV seroconversion among HIV-negative spouse/partner was 63.7/100 person years (PYs) (430/674.9) at the 6-month follow-up and 33.2/100PYs (567/1707.1PYs) at 12 months. The OR value of transmission from female to male was 2.1 times higher than from male to females at 6 months and 2.3 times higher at 12 months (P < .001). The 55- to 64-year age group was most likely to transmit HIV to their spouses/partners, 2.2 times greater than the participants who were 65 years and older. Married participants were 2.4 times higher at 6 months and 2.5 times higher at 12 months to transmit HIV than divorced/widowed participants. Lastly, transmission among illiterate participants was 6.7 times higher at 6 months and 2.3 times higher at 12 months than those with an educational attainment of community college or above.High HIV seroconversion was observed in this cohort. Spouses/partners who were male had the highest risk of HIV acquisition; those aged 55 to 64 years, having married status, and are HIV-positive with less education were more likely to transmit HIV.

Reproductive health problems in rural South African young women: risk behaviour and risk factors

BACKGROUND

South African young women continue to be vulnerable, with high prevalence of teenage pregnancy, HIV, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and female genital schistosomiasis (FGS). This study seeks to examine the underlying factors that may be associated with these four adverse reproductive health outcomes.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study of 1413 sexually active of young women, we explored these four adverse reproductive health outcomes by considering socio-demographic factors, socio-economic factors, sexual risk behaviour, substance abuse and knowledge about reproductive health by using a questionnaire. Consenting participants were asked about previous pregnancies and were tested for HIV, STIs and FGS. Multivariable regression analyses were used to explore the factors associated with these four reproductive health outcomes.

RESULTS

1. Early pregnancy: Among the young women, 44.4% had already been pregnant at least once. Associated factors were hormonal contraceptives, (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 17.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 12.73-25.29), and sexual debut < 16 years (AOR: 3.83, 95% CI: 2.68-5.47). Living with both parents (AOR 0.37, 95% CI: 0.25-0.57) and having a steady partner (AOR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.24-0.76) were identified as protective factors against pregnancy. 2. HIV: HIV prevalence was 17.1%. The odds of having HIV were higher in intergenerational (AOR: 2.06, 95% CI: 1.05-4.06) and intragenerational relationships (AOR: 1.51 95% CI: 1.06-2.15), compared to age-homogenous relationships. Other associated factors were: condom use (AOR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.16-2.20), number of times treated for an STI (AOR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.02-1.71), and total number of partners (AOR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.28). 3. STIs: Participants who had at least one STI (40.5%) were associated with total partner number (AOR 1.17, 95% CI: 1.06-1.30), and testing HIV positive (AOR: 1.88, 95% CI 1.41-2.50). 4. FGS: FGS prevalence (19.7%) was associated with previous anti-schistosomal treatment (AOR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.57-3.05).

CONCLUSION

There is a high prevalence of pregnancy, HIV, STIs and FGS among sexually active young women in rural KwaZulu-Natal. Multidisciplinary approaches are urgently needed for educational and health literacy programs prior to sexual debut, and health care facilities, which should be made accessible for young women.

HIV Risk Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Age-Disparate Partnerships: Evidence From KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the role of age-disparate partnerships in high HIV-infection rates among young women in sub-Saharan Africa remains inconclusive. This study examined the HIV-infection risk associated with age-disparate partnerships among 15- to 24-year-old women in a hyperendemic setting in South Africa.

METHODS

Face-to-face questionnaire, and laboratory HIV and viral load data were collected during 2014-2015 among a representative sample (15-49 years old) in KwaZulu-Natal. The association between age-disparate partnerships (age difference ≥5 years) and HIV status among 15- to 24-year-old women (N = 1459) was assessed using multiple logistic regression analyses. Data from the male sample on all on-going partnerships (N = 1229) involving 15- to 24-year-old women were used to assess whether young women's age-disparate male partners were more likely to have a viral load ≥1000 copies per milliliter, a marker of HIV-infection risk.

RESULTS

Women reporting an age disparity in any of their 3 most recent partnerships were more likely to test HIV positive compared to women with only age-similar partners [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.58, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20 to 2.09, P < 0.01]. Among partnerships men reported with 15- to 24-year-old women, the age-disparate male partners were more likely to be HIV positive and have a viral load ≥1000 copies per milliliter (aOR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.30 to 3.24, P < 0.01) compared with age-similar partners. Results were similar for each category of age disparity: partners 5-9 years older (aOR: 2.01, 95% CI: 1.18 to 3.43, P = 0.010) and those ≥10 years older (aOR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.01-4.66, P = 0.048).

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicate that age-disparate partnerships increase young women's HIV risk, although conclusive evidence was not ascertained. Interventions addressing risk from age-disparate sexual partnering, including expanding antiretroviral treatment among older partners, may help to reduce HIV incidence among young women.

The role of age-mixing patterns in HIV transmission dynamics: Novel hypotheses from a field study in Cape Town, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Age-disparate relationships are thought to put young women at increased risk of HIV, though current evidence is inconclusive. Studying population-level age-mixing patterns as well as individual-level measures of age difference variation may provide insight into the persistence and magnitude of the epidemic in South Africa.

METHODS

We used data from a survey in Cape Town (n = 506) to describe age-mixing dynamics in the four population strata of HIV negative and HIV positive male and female participants. Mixed-effects models were used to calculate the average increase in partner age for each year increase in age of participant, the average partner age for 15 year olds, and the between-subject and the within-subject standard deviation of partner ages. We conducted 2000 bootstrap replications of the models. Using negative binomial models, we also explored whether HIV status was associated with participants having a larger range in partner ages.

RESULTS

HIV positive women had large variability in partner ages at the population level, and at the individual level had nearly three times the expected range of partner ages compared to HIV negative women. This pattern may increase the potential for HIV transmission across birth cohorts and may partially explain the persistence of the epidemic in South Africa. Young men, who have been previously absent from the age-disparity discourse, also choose older partners who may be putting them at increased risk of HIV infection due to the high HIV prevalence among older age categories of women.

Age difference between heterosexual partners in Britain: Implications for the spread of Chlamydia trachomatis

Heterosexual partners often differ in age. Integrating realistic patterns of sexual mixing by age into dynamic transmission models has been challenging. The effects of these patterns on the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STI) including Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia), the most common bacterial STI are not well understood. We describe age mixing between new heterosexual partners using age- and sex-specific data about sexual behavior reported by people aged 16-63 years in the 2000 and 2010 British National Surveys of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles. We incorporate mixing patterns into a compartmental transmission model fitted to age- and sex-specific, chlamydia positivity from the same surveys, to investigate C. trachomatis transmission. We show that distributions of ages of new sex partners reported by women and by men in Britain are not consistent with each other. After balancing these distributions, new heterosexual partnerships tend to involve men who are older than women (median age difference 2, IQR -1, 5 years). We identified the most likely age combinations of heterosexual partners where incident C. trachomatis infections are generated. The model results show that in >50% of chlamydia transmitting partnerships, at least one partner is ≥25 years old. This study illustrates how sexual behavior data can be used to reconstruct detailed sexual mixing patterns by age, and how these patterns can be integrated into dynamic transmission models. The proposed framework can be extended to study the effects of age-dependent transmission on incidence in any STI.

Partner age differences and associated sexual risk behaviours among adolescent girls and young women in a cash transfer programme for schooling in Malawi

Background

Age disparities in sexual relationships have been proposed as a key risk factor for HIV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa, but evidence remains inconclusive. The SIHR study, a cluster randomised trial of a cash transfer programme in Malawi, found that young women in the intervention groups were less likely to have had a sexual partner aged 25 or older, and less likely to test positive for HIV and HSV-2 at follow-up compared to control groups. We examined the hypotheses that girls in the intervention groups had smaller age differences than control groups and that large age differences were associated with relationship-level HIV transmission risk factors: inconsistent condom use, sex frequency, and relationship duration.

Methods

We conducted an analysis of schoolgirls in the Schooling, Income, and Health Risk (SIHR) study aged 13-22 at baseline (n = 2907). We investigated the effects of study arm, trial stage and participant age on age differences in sexual relationships using a linear mixed-effects model. Cumulative-link mixed-effects models were used to estimate the effect of relationship age difference on condom use and sex frequency, and a Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effect of relationship age difference on relationship duration. We controlled for the girl’s age, number of partners, study group and study round.

Results

Girls receiving cash transfers, on average, had smaller age differences in relationships compared to controls, though the estimated difference was not statistically significant (− 0.43 years; 95% CI: -1.03, 0.17). The older the participant was, the smaller her age differences (− 0.67 per 4-year increase in age; 95% CI: -0.99, − 0.35). Among controls, after the cash transfers had ended the average age difference was 0.82 years larger than during the intervention (95% CI: 0.43, 1.21), suggesting a possible indirect effect of the study on behaviour in the community as a whole. Across treatment groups, larger age differences in relationships were associated with lower levels of condom use, more frequent sex, and longer relationship durations.

Conclusions

Cash-transfer programmes may prevent HIV transmission in part by encouraging young women to form age-similar relationships, which are characterised by increased condom use and reduced sex frequency. The benefits of these programmes may extend to those who are not directly receiving the cash.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5327-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Sexual behavior experiences and characteristics of male-female partnerships among HIV positive adolescent girls and young women: Qualitative findings from Zimbabwe

Background

New HIV infections among sub-Saharan Africa's adolescent girls and young women (AGYW, ages 15–24) greatly exceed those of their male peers. In addition, AGYW tend to acquire HIV at a much earlier age. Understanding the factors associated with HIV infection in AGYW could inform effective prevention and treatment interventions for these populations and their male sexual partners.

Methods

This qualitative study, conducted October-November 2016, was a follow on to a quantitative survey that sought to characterize male sexual partners and sexual behaviors of sexually active HIV positive AGYW in Zimbabwe. The qualitative study explored sexual behavior experiences and characteristics of male-female partnerships among the same participants. We conducted in-depth interviews with purposively sampled AGYW (16–24 years). Audio recorded qualitative data were transcribed, translated into English, and thematically coded using NVivo.

Results

28 AGYW (n = 14 urban, n = 14 rural) took part in the in-depth interviews. 50% were 16–19 years old. Discussions with 10/11 (91%) AGYW who were reportedly infected through sex suggested that they had acquired HIV from their husbands or romantic partners. Accounts also suggested that the age difference between respondents and their male sexual partners was ≥5 years. Overall, respondents described two types of male partners: those older (''sugar daddies'', men ≥35 years old) and younger (<35 years). Respondents felt unable to suggest condom use to both older and younger partners. Evident in respondents' accounts was a general low HIV risk perception, particularly with younger men, which was largely due to poor HIV knowledge. Discussions suggested that an AGYW's relationship with either male partner was characterized by some form of violence.

Conclusions

Discussions highlighted the nature and characteristics of relationships between AGYW and their male sexual partners. Findings could inform interventions to engender risk perception among AGYW, promote female-controlled HIV prevention efforts and, foster risk-reduction among men.

Marital Age Disparity Among Orphaned Young Women and Their Husbands: A Mixed Methods Study in Rural Zimbabwe

Our study reports the results from a mixed method study comparing age-similar (AS) marriages of orphaned young women to age disparate (AD) marriages, defined as spousal age difference of 5 or more years. Research in Zimbabwe and sub-Saharan Africa suggests that AD sexual relationships between older men and young women increase the risk for HIV but few studies have examined this association among married couples or explored why young women marry much older men. In this study, a total of 35 orphaned young women aged 17-26 years in rural Zimbabwe participated in semi-structured interviews during 2012-2013. Twenty-four were in AD marriages and 11 AS. All had participated in a 5-year HIV prevention trial, during which they had married and dropped out of school. We examined two research questions: were AD wives more likely than AS to cite economic considerations as a reason to marry, and were AD marriages associated with different health and economic outcomes compared to AS? Our results showed that the reasons the women married were essentially the same among the two groups; economic considerations for marriage were uncommon. Nevertheless, AD wives generally fared somewhat better than AS wives on economic and well-being measures. HIV prevalence was similar; however, the AD group accounted for all five cases of herpes simplex virus-2. Findings suggest the complexity of sexual and reproductive health in rural Africa, where AD marriages are common and accepted. The challenge for primary prevention is to develop strategies to mitigate the risk of sexually transmitted infections, as well as the potential abuse of young women, within the appropriate cultural context.

Role of survey response rates on valid inference: an application to HIV prevalence estimates

BACKGROUND

Nationally-representative surveys suggest that females have a higher prevalence of HIV than males in most African countries. Unfortunately, these results are made on the basis of surveys with non-ignorable missing data. This study evaluates the impact that differential survey nonresponse rates between males and females can have on the point estimate of the HIV prevalence ratio of these two classifiers.

METHODS

We study 29 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 2001 to 2010. Instead of employing often used multiple imputation models with a Missing at Random assumption that may not hold in this setting, we assess the effect of ignoring the information contained in the missing HIV information for males and females through three proposed statistical measures. These measures can be used in settings where the interest is comparing the prevalence of a disease between two groups. The proposed measures do not utilize parametric models and can be implemented by researchers of any level. They are: (1) an upper bound on the potential bias of the usual practise of using reported HIV prevalence estimates that ignore subjects who have missing HIV outcomes. (2) Plausible range intervals to account for nonresponses, without any additional parametric modeling assumptions. (3) Prevalence ratio inflation factors to correct the point estimate of the HIV prevalence ratio, if estimates of nonresponders' HIV prevalences were known.

RESULTS

In 86% of countries, males have higher upper bounds of HIV prevalence than females, this is consonant with males possibly having higher infection rates than females. Additionally, 74% of surveys have a plausible range that crosses 1.0, suggesting a plausible equivalence between male and female HIV prevalences.

CONCLUSIONS

It is quite reasonable to conclude that there is so much DHS nonresponse in evaluating the HIV status question, that existing data is plausibly generated by the situation where the virus is equally distributed between the sexes.

A Simple Risk Prediction Algorithm for HIV Transmission: Results from HIV Prevention Trials in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa (2002-2012)

We aimed to develop a HIV risk scoring algorithm for targeted screening among women in South Africa. We used data from five biomedical intervention trials (N = 8982 Cox regression models were used to create a risk prediction algorithm and it was internally and externally validated using standard statistical measures; 7-factors were identified as significant predictors of HIV infection: <25 years old, being single/not cohabiting, parity (<3), age at sexual debut (<16), 3+ sexual partners, using injectables and diagnosis with a sexually transmitted infection(s). A score of ≥25 (out of 50) was the optimum cut point with 83% (80%) sensitivity in the development (validation) dataset. Our tool can be used in designing future HIV prevention research and guiding recruitment strategies as well as in health care settings. Identifying, targeting and prioritising women at highest risk will have significant impact on preventing new HIV infections by scaling up testing and pre-exposure prophylaxis in conjunction with other HIV prevention modalities.

Effect of Schooling on Age-Disparate Relationships and Number of Sexual Partners Among Young Women in Rural South Africa Enrolled in HPTN 068

BACKGROUND

Attending school may have a strong preventative association with sexually transmitted infections among young women, but the mechanism for this relationship is unknown. One hypothesis is that students who attend school practice safer sex with fewer partners, establishing safer sexual networks that make them less exposed to infection.

SETTING

We used longitudinal data from a randomized controlled trial of young women aged 13-20 years in the Bushbuckridge district, South Africa, to determine whether the percentage of school days attended, school dropout, and grade repetition are associated with having a partner 5 or more years older (age-disparate) and with the number of sexual partners in the previous 12 months.

METHODS

Risks of having an age-disparate relationship and number of sexual partners were compared using inverse probability of exposure weighted Poisson regression models. Generalized estimating equations were used to account for repeated measures.

RESULTS

Young women who attended fewer school days (<80%) and who dropped out of school were more likely to have an age-disparate relationship (risk difference 9.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.9% to 16.0%; risk difference (%) dropout 17.2%, 95% CI: 5.4% to 29.0%) and those who dropped out reported having fewer partners (count difference dropout 0.343, 95% CI: 0.192 to 0.495). Grade repetition was not associated with either behavior.

CONCLUSION

Young women who less frequently attend school or who drop out are more likely to have an age-disparate relationship. Young women who drop out have overall more partners. These behaviors may increase the risk of exposure to HIV infection in young women out of school.

Tuberculosis mortality and the male survival deficit in rural South Africa: An observational community cohort study

BACKGROUND

Women live on average five years longer than men, and the sex difference in longevity is typically lower in populations with high mortality. South Africa-a high mortality population with a large sex disparity-is an exception, but the causes of death that contribute to this difference are not well understood.

METHODS

Using data from a demographic surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal (2000-2014), we estimate differences between male and female adult life expectancy by HIV status. The contribution of causes of death to these life expectancy differences are computed with demographic decomposition techniques. Cause of death information comes from verbal autopsy interviews that are interpreted with the InSilicoVA tool.

RESULTS

Adult women lived an average of 10.4 years (95% confidence Interval 9.0-11.6) longer than men. Sex differences in adult life expectancy were even larger when disaggregated by HIV status: 13.1 (95% confidence interval 10.7-15.3) and 11.2 (95% confidence interval 7.5-14.8) years among known HIV negatives and positives, respectively. Elevated male mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and external injuries were responsible for 43% and 31% of the sex difference in life expectancy among the HIV negative population, and 81% and 16% of the difference among people living with HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

The sex differences in adult life expectancy in rural KwaZulu-Natal are exceptionally large, atypical for an African population, and largely driven by high male mortality from pulmonary TB and injuries. This is the case for both HIV positive and HIV negative men and women, signalling a need to improve the engagement of men with health services, irrespective of their HIV status.

Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort

PURPOSE

The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART).

PARTICIPANTS

General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years).

FINDINGS TO DATE

HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART.

FUTURE PLANS

We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome.

Education, substance use, and HIV risk among orphaned adolescents in Eastern Zimbabwe

There is a growing interest in education as a means to reduce HIV infection in vulnerable children in sub-Saharan Africa; however, the mechanisms by which education reduces HIV infection remain uncertain. Substance use has been associated with high-risk sexual behaviour and could lie on the causal pathway between education and HIV risk. Therefore, we used multivariable regression to measure associations between: (i) orphanhood and substance use (alcohol, recreational drugs, and smoking), (ii) substance use and sexual risk behaviours, and (iii) school enrolment and substance use, in adolescents aged 15-19 years, in Eastern Zimbabwe. We found substance use to be low overall (6.4%, 3.2%, and 0.9% of males reported alcohol, drug, and cigarette use; <1% of females reported any substance use), but was more common in male maternal and double orphans than non-orphans. Substance use was positively associated with early sexual debut, number of sexual partners, and engaging in transactional sex, while school enrolment was associated with lower substance use in males. We conclude that education may reduce sexual risk behaviours and HIV infection rates among male adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, in part, by reducing substance abuse.

Spatial patterns of HIV prevalence and service use in East Zimbabwe: implications for future targeting of interventions

INTRODUCTION

Focusing resources for HIV control on geographic areas of greatest need in countries with generalized epidemics has been recommended to increase cost-effectiveness. However, socioeconomic inequalities between areas of high and low prevalence could raise equity concerns and have been largely overlooked. We describe spatial patterns in HIV prevalence in east Zimbabwe and test for inequalities in accessibility and uptake of HIV services prior to the introduction of spatially-targeted programmes.

METHODS

8092 participants in an open-cohort study were geo-located to 110 locations. HIV prevalence and HIV testing and counselling (HTC) uptake were mapped with ordinary kriging. Clusters of high or low HIV prevalence were detected with Kulldorff statistics, and the socioeconomic characteristics and sexual risk behaviours of their populations, and levels of local HIV service availability (measured in travel distance) and uptake were compared. Kulldorff statistics were also determined for HTC, antiretroviral therapy (ART), and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) uptake.

RESULTS

One large and one small high HIV prevalence cluster (relative risk [RR] = 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.53-2.07; RR = 2.50, 95% CI = 2.08-3.01) and one low-prevalence cluster (RR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.60-0.82) were detected. The larger high-prevalence cluster was urban with a wealthier population and more high-risk sexual behaviour than outside the cluster. Despite better access to HIV services, there was lower HTC uptake in the high-prevalence cluster (odds ratio [OR] of HTC in past three years: OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.66-0.97). The low-prevalence cluster was predominantly rural with a poorer population and longer travel distances to HIV services; however, uptake of HIV services was not reduced.

CONCLUSION

High-prevalence clusters can be identified to which HIV control resources could be targeted. To date, poorer access to HIV services in the poorer low-prevalence areas has not resulted in lower service uptake, whilst there is significantly lower uptake of HTC in the high-prevalence cluster where health service access is better. Given the high levels of risky sexual behaviour and lower uptake of HTC services, targeting high-prevalence clusters may be cost-effective in this setting. If spatial targeting is introduced, inequalities in HIV service uptake may be avoided through mobile service provision for lower prevalence areas.

HIV Prevalence and ART Use Among Men in Partnerships with 15-29 Year Old Women in South Africa: HIV Risk Implications for Young Women in Age-Disparate Partnerships

This study assesses whether men's ART use mitigates HIV-risk within age-disparate partnerships. Using data from the 2012 South African National HIV survey, we analyzed differences in HIV prevalence and ART use between men in age-disparate and age-similar partnerships with young women aged 15-29 using multiple logistic regression analyses. Within partnerships involving women 15-24 years old, men in age-disparate partnerships were more likely to be HIV-positive (5-9 year age-gap: aOR 2.8, 95%CI 1.4-5.2; p < 0.01; 10+ year age-gap: aOR 2.2, 95%CI 1.0-4.6; p < 0.05). Men in age-disparate partnerships who were 5-9 years older were significantly more likely to be HIV-positive and ART-naïve (aOR 2.4, 95%CI 1.2-4.8; p < 0.05), while this was not the case for men 10+ years older (aOR 1.5, 95%CI 0.7-3.6; p = 0.32). No evidence was found that 25-29 year old women were at greater HIV-risk in age-disparate partnerships. Our results indicate that young women aged 15-24 have a greater likelihood of exposure to HIV through age-disparate partnerships, but ART use among men 10+ years older could mitigate risk.

Sexual partnership age pairings and risk of HIV acquisition in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the contribution of specific sexual partner age groups to the risk of HIV acquisition in men and women in a hyperendemic region of South Africa.

DESIGN

We conducted a population-based cohort study among women (15-49 years of age) and men (15-55 years of age) between 2004 and 2015 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

Generalized additive models were used to estimate smoothed HIV incidence rates across partnership age pairings in men and women. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relative risk of HIV acquisition by partner age group.

RESULTS

A total of 882 HIV seroconversions were observed in 15 935 person-years for women, incidence rate = 5.5 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.2-5.9] and 270 HIV seroconversions were observed in 9372 person-years for men, incidence rate = 2.9 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 2.6-3.2). HIV incidence was highest among 15-24-year-old women reporting partnerships with 30-34-year-old men, incidence rate = 9.7 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 7.2-13.1). Risk of HIV acquisition in women was associated with male partners aged 25-29 years (adjusted hazard ratio; aHR = 1.44, 95% CI, 1.02-2.04) and 30-34 years (aHR = 1.50, 95% CI, 1.08-2.09) relative to male partners aged 35 and above. Risk of HIV acquisition in men was associated with 25-29-year-old (aHR = 1.72, 95% CI, 1.02-2.90) and 30-34-year-old women (aHR = 2.12, 95% CI, 1.03-4.39) compared to partnerships with women aged 15-19 years.

CONCLUSION

Age of sexual partner is a major risk factor for HIV acquisition in both men and women, independent of one's own age. Partner age pairings play a critical role in driving the cycle of HIV transmission.

Sex with older partners, condomless anal sex and unrecognized HIV infection among Chinese men who have sex with men

We examined the prevalence of sex with older male partner (SWOMP) and its association with condomless anal intercourse (CAI) with male partners and unrecognized HIV infection among young men who have sex with men (MSM) in Shanghai, China. The analytic sample included 243 MSM who were 18-45 years and HIV negative or of unknown HIV serostatus. Older male partner refers to male sex partner who was at least 10 years older than themselves. Overall, 99 (43.0%) and 50 (20.7%) reported having SWOMP in lifetime and in the last 3 months, respectively. Having any CAI with male partners in the last 3 months was independently associated with SWOMP and sex with stable male partners in the last 3 months. Unrecognized HIV infection was independently associated with being HSV-2 positive and having any CAI with male partners as well as SWOMP in last 3 months. Sex with stable male partner in the last 3 months was also marginally significantly associated with unrecognized infection (p = 0.084). Older partner selection is common among young MSM in China. Prevention programs should incorporate education messages about the HIV risk associated with SWOMP. MSM should be informed that having condomless sex with stable partners may place them at HIV risk.

Age-disparate relationships and HIV incidence in adolescent girls and young women: evidence from Zimbabwe

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective:

Age-disparate sexual relationships with older men may drive high rates of HIV acquisition in young women in sub-Saharan Africa, but evidence is limited. We investigate the association between age-disparate relationships and HIV incidence in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

Design:

A general-population open-cohort study (six surveys) (1998–2013).

Methods:

A total of 3746 young women aged 15–24 years participated in consecutive surveys and were HIV-negative at the beginning of intersurvey periods. Last sexual partner age difference and age-disparate relationships [intergenerational (≥10 years age difference) and intragenerational (5–9 years) versus age-homogeneous (0–4 years)] were tested for associations with HIV incidence in Cox regressions. A proximate determinants framework was used to explore factors possibly explaining variations in the contribution of age-disparate relationships to HIV incidence between populations and over time.

Results:

About 126 HIV infections occurred over 8777 person-years (1.43 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval = 1.17–1.68). Sixty-five percent of women reported partner age differences of at least 5 years. Increasing partner age differences were associated with higher HIV incidence [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.05 (1.01–1.09)]. Intergenerational relationships tended to increase HIV incidence [aHR = 1.78 (0.96–3.29)] but not intragenerational relationships [aHR = 0.91 (0.47–1.76)]. Secondary education was associated with reductions in intergenerational relationships [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.49 (0.36–0.68)]. Intergenerational relationships were associated with partners having concurrent relationships [aOR = 2.59 (1.81–3.70)], which tended to increase HIV incidence [aHR = 1.74 (0.96–3.17)]. Associations between age disparity and HIV incidence did not change over time.

Conclusion:

Sexual relationships with older men expose young women to increased risk of HIV acquisition in Manicaland, which did not change over time, even with introduction of antiretroviral therapy.

Prevention of HIV in Adolescent Girls and Young Women: Key to an AIDS-Free Generation

The Global Plan towards the elimination of new HIV infections among children by 2015 and keeping their mothers alive (Global Plan) has ensured that more infants in high-HIV burden countries survive childhood HIV-free. Although equal numbers of boy and girl children have survived to age 10, a gender divergence starts to emerge as they enter adolescence. Up to 3 times as many young women aged 15-24 years in eastern and southern Africa are living with HIV compared with their male peers. Further, more adolescent girls and young women are sick and/or dying from AIDS-related or HIV-related complications during pregnancy and in the postpartum period, underscoring the importance of strengthening HIV treatment and prevention services for this group. Failure to prevent HIV in adolescent girls and young women and keep them alive will reverse the infant HIV prevention and survival gains made under the Global Plan. The promising global declines in HIV infection in young women need to be strengthened to realize the goals of an AIDS-free generation. The DREAMS initiative of the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which specifically addresses adolescent girls and young women at highest risk of HIV acquisition, brings new hope for meeting the prevention and care needs of this important and vulnerable population through political commitment, leadership, financial and human resource investments, advocacy efforts, and a focus on the highest priority settings. Importantly, to achieve the goal of keeping mothers alive, we have to place more emphasis on access to sexual and reproductive health services that (1) include HIV prevention and treatment services for adolescent girls and young women; (2) increase male/paternal responsibility in mother and infant health; and (3) ensure a supportive social environment that enables young women to grow up into young adults who are free to graduate from high school and plan their pregnancies, ultimately entering adulthood safe, healthy, and free from HIV.

Effect of age-difference between heterosexual partners on risk of cervical cancer and human papillomavirus infection

BACKGROUND

Age difference (Adiff) within a heterosexual couple may influence a woman's risk of being HPV-positive and developing cervical cancer (CC).

METHODS

We assessed the relationship between Adiff within the first and current sexual partnership and risk of CC and HPV infection in 1495 cases and 1358 control women from 6 countries included in IARC's multicentric case-control study (median age: 48 years).

RESULTS

Large Adiff within the first partnerships was associated with increased CC risk (OR≥3 vs. ≤2 years=1.49, CI: 1.26-1.75); this association disappeared after correction for age at first sexual intercourse (OR=1.03, 0.86-1.24). The relationship between Adiff within the current partnership and HPV-positivity was opposite (OR≥3 vs. ≤2 years=0.59, 0.41-0.86) and not affected by adjustment for sexual confounding. The influences of Adiff on CC risk and HPV-positivity were consistent across age groups and countries.

CONCLUSION

The association between CC risk and large Adiff in the first sexual partnership is mostly explained by young age at first intercourse. Conversely, the negative association between Adiff in current partnership and HPV-positivity is probably related to decreased infectiousness of the male partner with age. The study of Adiff in sexual partnerships helps elucidate HPV circulation in different populations.

"We Might Get Some Free Beers": Experience and Motivation for Transactional Sex Among Behaviorally Bisexual Men in Vientiane, Laos

People engaging in transactional sex are considered a key population for HIV prevention. Prior quantitative surveys demonstrated that behaviorally bisexual men in Vientiane, Laos commonly transact sex. In 2013, we conducted a qualitative study to explore behaviorally bisexual men's experience, motivations, and perceptions related to transactional sex in Vientiane. Behaviorally bisexual men were recruited from bars, nightclubs, and dormitories for five focus group discussions (FGDs) and 11 in-depth interviews (n = 31). Additionally, young women were recruited from a university, garment factory, and nightclub for four FGDs (n = 22). Transcripts were translated and thematically coded. Bisexual male participants most commonly described being paid for sex by male-to-female transgender people and buying sex from women. Both male and female participants reported that older, single women pay younger men for sex. Negotiation and direction of sexual transactions are influenced by age, attraction, and wealth. Common motivations for selling sex included the need for money to support family or fund school fees, material gain, or physical pleasure. Transactional sex was often opportunistic. Some behaviorally bisexual men reported selling sex in order to pay another more desirable sex partner or to buy gifts for their regular sex partner. Participants perceived high risk associated with intercourse with female sex workers but not with other transactional sex partners. Health interventions are needed to improve knowledge, risk perception, and health behaviors, but must recognize the diversity of transactional sex in Vientiane. Both physical and virtual settings may be appropriate for reaching behaviorally bisexual men and their partners.

Collective effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures and differential rate of transmission on spread of epidemics

In the present work, the effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures is studied on the spread of epidemics over scale free networks that are characterized by the differential rate of disease transmission. The role of personal behavior induced preventive measures is parameterized in terms of variable λ, which modulates the number of concurrent contacts a node makes with the fraction of its neighboring nodes. The dynamics of the disease is described by a non-linear Susceptible Infected Susceptible model based upon the discrete time Markov Chain method. The network mean field approach is generalized to account for the effect of non-linear coupling between the aforementioned factors on the collective dynamics of nodes. The upper bound estimates of the disease outbreak threshold obtained from the mean field theory are found to be in good agreement with the corresponding non-linear stochastic model. From the results of parametric study, it is shown that the epidemic size has inverse dependence on the preventive measures (λ). It has also been shown that the increase in the average degree of the nodes lowers the time of spread and enhances the size of epidemics.

Estimating contact patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases in Russia

Understanding human mixing patterns is the key to provide public health decision makers with model-based evaluation of strategies for the control of infectious diseases. Here we conducted a population-based survey in Tomsk, Russia, asking participants to record all their contacts in physical person during the day. We estimated 9.8 contacts per person per day on average, 15.2 when including additional estimated professional contacts. We found that contacts were highly assortative by age, especially for school-age individuals, and the number of contacts negatively correlated with the age of the participant. The network of contacts was quite clustered, with the majority of contacts (about 72%) occurring between family members, students of the same school/university, and work colleagues. School represents the location where the largest number of contacts was recorded - students contacted about 7 individuals per day at school. Our modeling analysis based on the recorded contact patterns supports the importance of modeling age-mixing patterns - we show that, in the case of an epidemic caused by a novel influenza virus, school-age individuals would be the most affected age group, followed by adults aged 35-44 years. In conclusion, this study reveals an age-mixing pattern in general agreement with that estimated for European countries, although with several quantitative differences. The observed differences can be attributable to sociodemographic and cultural differences between countries. The age- and setting-specific contact matrices provided in this study could be instrumental for the design of control measures for airborne infections, specifically targeted on the characteristics of the Russian population.

Could Circumcision of HIV-Positive Males Benefit Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Programs in Africa? Mathematical Modeling Analysis

Background

The epidemiological and programmatic implications of inclusivity of HIV-positive males in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs are uncertain. We modeled these implications using Zambia as an illustrative example.

Methods and Findings

We used the Age-Structured Mathematical (ASM) model to evaluate, over an intermediate horizon (2010–2025), the effectiveness (number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection) of VMMC scale-up scenarios with varying proportions of HIV-positive males. The model was calibrated by fitting to HIV prevalence time trend data from 1990 to 2014. We assumed that inclusivity of HIV positive males may benefit VMMC programs by increasing VMMC uptake among higher risk males, or by circumcision reducing HIV male-to-female transmission risk. All analyses were generated assuming no further antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up.

The number of VMMCs needed to avert one HIV infection was projected to increase from 12.2 VMMCs per HIV infection averted, in a program that circumcises only HIV-negative males, to 14.0, in a program that includes HIV-positive males. The proportion of HIV-positive males was based on their representation in the population (e.g. 12.6% of those circumcised in 2010 would be HIV-positive based on HIV prevalence among males of 12.6% in 2010). However, if a program that only reaches out to HIV-negative males is associated with 20% lower uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 13.2 VMMCs per infection averted. If improved inclusivity of HIV-positive males is associated with 20% higher uptake among higher-risk males, the effectiveness would be 12.4. As the assumed VMMC efficacy against male-to-female HIV transmission was increased from 0% to 20% and 46%, the effectiveness of circumcising regardless of HIV status improved from 14.0 to 11.5 and 9.1, respectively. The reduction in the HIV incidence rate among females increased accordingly, from 24.7% to 34.8% and 50.4%, respectively.

Conclusion

Improving inclusivity of males in VMMC programs regardless of HIV status increases VMMC effectiveness, if there is moderate increase in VMMC uptake among higher-risk males and/or if there is moderate efficacy for VMMC against male-to-female transmission. In these circumstances, VMMC programs can reduce the HIV incidence rate in males by nearly as much as expected by some ART programs, and additionally, females can benefit from the intervention nearly as much as males.

High HIV prevalence and associated risk factors among female sex workers in Rwanda

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence is often high among female sex workers (FSWs) in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the dynamics of HIV infection in this key population is critical to developing appropriate prevention strategies. We aimed to describe the prevalence and associated risk factors among a sample of FSWs in Rwanda from a survey conducted in 2010. A cross-sectional biological and behavioral survey was conducted among FSWs in Rwanda. Time-location sampling was used for participant recruitment from 4 to 18 February 2010. HIV testing was done using HIV rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) as per Rwandan national guidelines at the time of the survey. Elisa tests were simultaneously done on all samples tested HIV-positive on RDT. Proportions were used for sample description; multivariable logistic regression model was performed to analyze factors associated with HIV infection. Of 1338 women included in the study, 1112 consented to HIV testing, and the overall HIV prevalence was 51.0%. Sixty percent had been engaged in sex work for less than five years and 80% were street based. In multivariable logistic regression, HIV prevalence was higher in FSWs 25 years or older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.83, 95% [confidence interval (CI): 1.42-2.37]), FSWs with consistent condom use in the last 30 days (aOR = 1.39, [95% CI: 1.05-1.82]), and FSWs experiencing at least one STI symptom in the last 12 months (aOR = 1.74 [95% CI: 1.34-2.26]). There was an inverse relationship between HIV prevalence and comprehensive HIV knowledge (aOR = 0.65, [95% CI: 0.48-0.88]). HIV prevalence was high among a sample of FSWs in Rwanda, and successful prevention strategies should focus on HIV education, treatment of sexually transmitted infections, and proper and consistent condom use using an outreach approach.

Transmission networks and risk of HIV infection in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a community-wide phylogenetic study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of HIV infection in young women in Africa is very high. We did a large-scale community-wide phylogenetic study to examine the underlying HIV transmission dynamics and the source and consequences of high rates of HIV infection in young women in South Africa.

METHODS

We did a cross-sectional household survey of randomly selected individuals aged 15-49 years in two neighbouring subdistricts (one urban and one rural) with a high burden of HIV infection in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Participants completed structured questionnaires that captured general demographic, socioeconomic, psychosocial, and behavioural data. Peripheral blood samples were obtained for HIV antibody testing. Samples with HIV RNA viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL were selected for genotyping. We constructed a phylogenetic tree to identify clusters of linked infections (defined as two or more sequences with bootstrap or posterior support ≥90% and genetic distance ≤4·5%).

FINDINGS

From June 11, 2014, to June 22, 2015, we enrolled 9812 participants, 3969 of whom tested HIV positive. HIV prevalence (weighted) was 59·8% in 2835 women aged 25-40 years, 40·3% in 1548 men aged 25-40 years, 22·3% in 2224 women younger than 25 years, and 7·6% in 1472 men younger than 25 years. HIV genotyping was done in 1589 individuals with a viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL. In 90 transmission clusters, 123 women were linked to 103 men. Of 60 possible phylogenetically linked pairings with the 43 women younger than 25 years, 18 (30·0%) probable male partners were younger than 25 years, 37 (61·7%) were aged 25-40 years, and five (8·3%) were aged 41-49 years: mean age difference 8·7 years (95% CI 6·8-10·6; p<0·0001). For the 92 possible phylogenetically linked pairings with the 56 women aged 25-40 years, the age difference dropped to 1·1 years (95% CI -0·6 to 2·8; p=0·111). 16 (39·0%) of 41 probable male partners linked to women younger than 25 years were also linked to women aged 25-40 years. Of 79 men (mean age 31·5 years) linked to women younger than 40 years, 62 (78·5%) were unaware of their HIV-positive status, 76 (96·2%) were not on antiretroviral therapy, and 29 (36·7%) had viral loads of more than 50 000 copies per mL.

INTERPRETATION

Sexual partnering between young women and older men, who might have acquired HIV from women of similar age, is a key feature of the sexual networks driving transmission. Expansion of treatment and combination prevention strategies that include interventions to address age-disparate sexual partnering is crucial to reducing HIV incidence and enabling Africa to reach the goal of ending AIDS as a public health threat.

FUNDING

President's Emergency Program for AIDS Relief, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, South African Medical Research Council, and MAC AIDS Fund.

Age-disparate sex and HIV risk for young women from 2002 to 2012 in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Age-disparate sex has long been considered a factor that increases HIV risk for young women in South Africa. However, recent studies from specific regions in South Africa have found conflicting evidence. Few studies have assessed the association between age-disparate partnerships (those involving an age gap of 5 years or more) and HIV risk at the national level. This study investigates the relationship between age-disparate sex and HIV status among young women aged 15-24 in South Africa.

METHODS

Nationally representative weighted data from the 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2012 South African National HIV Surveys were analysed for young women aged 15-24 years using bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regressions.

RESULTS

After conducting multiple logistic regression analyses and controlling for confounders, young women with age-disparate partners had greater odds of being HIV positive in every survey year: 2002 (aOR = 1.74, 95%CI: 0.81-3.76, p = 0.16); 2005 (aOR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.22-3.66, p < 0.01); 2008 (aOR = 2.02, 95%CI: 1.24-3.29, p < 0.01); 2012 (aOR = 1.53, 95%CI: 0.92-2.54, p < 0.1). The odds of being HIV positive increased for each year increase in their male partner's age in 2002 (aOR = 1.10, 95%CI: 0.98-1.22, p = 0.11), 2005 (aOR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.03-1.17, p < 0.01), 2008 (aOR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.01-1.15, p < 0.05), and 2012 (aOR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.01-1.16, p < 0.05). Findings were statistically significant (p < 0.1) for the years 2005, 2008, and 2012.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that age-disparate sex continues to be a risk factor for young women aged 15-24 in South Africa at a national level. These results may reflect variation in HIV risk at the national level compared to the differing results from recent studies in a demographic surveillance system and trial contexts. In light of recent contradictory study results, further research is required on the relationship between age-disparate sex and HIV for a more nuanced understanding of young women's HIV risk.

New insights into HIV epidemic in South Africa: key findings from the National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012

This article presents key findings from the 2012 HIV prevalence, incidence and behaviour survey conducted in South Africa and explores trends in the HIV epidemic. A representative household based survey collected behavioural and biomedical data among people of all ages. Chi-squared test for association and formal trend tests (2002, 2005, 2008 and 2012) were used to test for associations and trends in the HIV epidemic across the four surveys. In 2012 a total of 38 431 respondents were interviewed from 11 079 households; 28 997 (67.5%) of 42 950 eligible individuals provided blood specimens. HIV prevalence was 12.2% [95% CI: 11.4-13.1] in 2012 with prevalence higher among females 14.4% than males 9.9%. Adults aged 25-49 years were most affected, 25.2% [95% CI: 23.2-27.3]. HIV prevalence increased from 10.6% [95%CI: 9.8-11.6] in 2008 to 12.2% [95% CI: 11.4-13.1] in 2012 (p < 0.001). Antiretroviral treatment (ART) exposure doubled from 16.6% in 2008 to 31.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001). HIV incidence in 2012 among persons 2 years and older was 1.07% [95% CI: 0.87-1.27], with the highest incidence among Black African females aged 20-34 years at 4.5%. Sexual debut before 15 years was reported by 10.7% of respondents aged 15-24 years, and was significantly higher among male youth than female (16.7% vs. 5.0% respectively, p < 0.001). Reporting of multiple sexual partners in the previous 12 months increased from 11.5% in 2002 to 18.3% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Condom use at last sex dropped from 45.1% in 2008 to 36.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Levels of accurate HIV knowledge about transmission and prevention were low and had decreased between 2008 and 2012 from 31.5% to 26.8%. South Africa is on the right track with scaling up ART. However, there have been worrying increases in most HIV-related risk behaviours. These findings suggest that there is a need to scale up prevention methods that integrate biomedical, behavioural, social and structural prevention interventions to reverse the tide in the fight against HIV.

Chemokine Levels in the Penile Coronal Sulcus Correlate with HIV-1 Acquisition and Are Reduced by Male Circumcision in Rakai, Uganda

Individual susceptibility to HIV is heterogeneous, but the biological mechanisms explaining differences are incompletely understood. We hypothesized that penile inflammation may increase HIV susceptibility in men by recruiting permissive CD4 T cells, and that male circumcision may decrease HIV susceptibility in part by reducing genital inflammation. We used multi-array technology to measure levels of seven cytokines in coronal sulcus (penile) swabs collected longitudinally from initially uncircumcised men enrolled in a randomized trial of circumcision in Rakai, Uganda. Coronal sulcus cytokine levels were compared between men who acquired HIV and controls who remained seronegative. Cytokines were also compared within men before and after circumcision, and correlated with CD4 T cells subsets in foreskin tissue. HIV acquisition was associated with detectable coronal sulcus Interleukin-8 (IL-8 aOR 2.26, 95%CI 1.04–6.40) and Monokine Induced by γ-interferon (MIG aOR 2.72, 95%CI 1.15–8.06) at the visit prior to seroconversion, and the odds of seroconversion increased with detection of multiple cytokines. Coronal sulcus chemokine levels were not correlated with those in the vagina of a man’s female sex partner. The detection of IL-8 in swabs was significantly reduced 6 months after circumcision (PRR 0.59, 95%CI 0.44–0.87), and continued to decline for at least two years (PRR 0.29, 95%CI 0.16–0.54). Finally, prepuce IL-8 correlated with increased HIV target cell density in foreskin tissues, including highly susceptible CD4 T cells subsets, as well as with tissue neutrophil density. Together, these data suggest that penile inflammation increases HIV susceptibility and is reduced by circumcision.

The per-contact risk of infection with HIV through sexual exposure is low and highly variable. Understanding the biological basis for this variability could help in the development of new methods to prevent infection. There is some evidence that penile inflammation, even in the absence of any clinical symptoms, may increase HIV-susceptibility by recruiting CD4 T cells, the immune cell type that is the principal target of HIV. We analyzed soluble inflammatory mediators in prepuce swabs collected longitudinally from initially HIV-negative men enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of adult circumcision. We found that these inflammatory mediators were elevated in men who went on to acquire HIV. We also found that higher levels of these mediators were associated with an increased density of HIV-susceptible target cells in the underlying foreskin tissue and that circumcision reduced their levels, which may help to explain why circumcision reduces HIV risk by 60% or more. Together, these data suggest that penile inflammation, in the absence of genital infections, increases HIV susceptibility and is reduced by adult male circumcision.

Age differences between sexual partners, behavioural and demographic correlates, and HIV infection on Likoma Island, Malawi

Patterns of age differences between sexual partners – “age-mixing” – may partially explain the magnitude of HIV epidemics in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, evidence of age-disparity as a risk factor for HIV remains mixed. We used data from a socio-centric study of sexual behaviour in Malawi to quantify the age-mixing pattern and to find associations between relationship characteristics and age differences for 1,922 participants. Three age difference measures were explored as predictors of prevalent HIV infection. We found that for each year increase in male participant age, the average age difference with their partners increased by 0.26 years, while among women it remained approximately constant around 5 years. Women in the study had larger within-individual variation in partner ages compared to men. Spousal partnerships and never using a condom during sex were associated with larger age differences in relationships of both men and women. Men who were more than five years younger than their partners had 5.39 times higher odds (95% CI: 0.93–31.24) of being HIV-infected than men 0–4 years older. The relationship between HIV-infection and age-asymmetry may be more complex than previously described. The role that women play in HIV transmission should not be under-estimated, particularly in populations with large within-individual variation in partner ages.

Transactional sex and risk for HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Young women aged 15 to 24 years in sub-Saharan Africa continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV. A growing number of studies have suggested that the practice of transactional sex may in part explain women's heightened risk, but evidence on the association between transactional sex and HIV has not yet been synthesized. We set out to systematically review studies that assess the relationship between transactional sex and HIV among men and women in sub-Saharan Africa and to summarize the findings through a meta-analysis.

METHODS

The search strategy included 8 databases, hand searches in 10 journals, and searches across 17 websites and portals for organizations as informed by expert colleagues. A systematic review of cross-sectional and longitudinal studies was carried out for studies on women and men who engage in transactional sex published up through 2014. Random effects meta-analysis was used to further examine the relationship between transactional sex and prevalent HIV infection across a subset of studies with the same exposure period. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women.

RESULTS

Nineteen papers from 16 studies met our inclusion criteria. Of these 16 studies, 14 provided data on women and 10 on men. We find a significant, positive, unadjusted or adjusted association between transactional sex and HIV in 10 of 14 studies for women, one of which used a longitudinal design (relative risk (RR)=2.06, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22 -3.48). Out of 10 studies involving men, only 2 indicate a positive association between HIV and transactional sex in unadjusted or adjusted models. The meta-analysis confirmed general findings from the systematic review (unadjusted meta-analysis findings are significant for women (n=4; pooled odds ratio (OR)=1.54, 95% CI: 1.04-2.28; I2=42.5%, p=0.156), but not for men (n=4; pooled OR=1.47, 95% CI: 0.85-2.56; I2=50.8%, p=0.107).

CONCLUSIONS

Transactional sex is associated with HIV among women, whereas findings for men were inconclusive. Given that only two studies used a longitudinal approach, there remains a need for better measurement of the practice of transactional sex and additional longitudinal studies to establish the causal pathways between transactional sex and HIV.

The relationship between parental education and children's schooling in a time of economic turmoil: The case of East Zimbabwe, 2001 to 2011

Using data collected from 1998 to 2011 in a general population cohort study in eastern Zimbabwe, we describe education trends and the relationship between parental education and children's schooling during the Zimbabwean economic collapse of the 2000s. During this period, the previously-rising trend in education stalled, with girls suffering disproportionately; however, female enrolment increased as the economy began to recover. Throughout the period, children with more educated parents continued to have better outcomes such that, at the population level, an underlying increase in the proportion of children with more educated parents may have helped to maintain the upwards education trend.

Phylogenetic Tools for Generalized HIV-1 Epidemics: Findings from the PANGEA-HIV Methods Comparison

Viral phylogenetic methods contribute to understanding how HIV spreads in populations, and thereby help guide the design of prevention interventions. So far, most analyses have been applied to well-sampled concentrated HIV-1 epidemics in wealthy countries. To direct the use of phylogenetic tools to where the impact of HIV-1 is greatest, the Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalized HIV Epidemics in Africa (PANGEA-HIV) consortium generates full-genome viral sequences from across sub-Saharan Africa. Analyzing these data presents new challenges, since epidemics are principally driven by heterosexual transmission and a smaller fraction of cases is sampled. Here, we show that viral phylogenetic tools can be adapted and used to estimate epidemiological quantities of central importance to HIV-1 prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. We used a community-wide methods comparison exercise on simulated data, where participants were blinded to the true dynamics they were inferring. Two distinct simulations captured generalized HIV-1 epidemics, before and after a large community-level intervention that reduced infection levels. Five research groups participated. Structured coalescent modeling approaches were most successful: phylogenetic estimates of HIV-1 incidence, incidence reductions, and the proportion of transmissions from individuals in their first 3 months of infection correlated with the true values (Pearson correlation > 90%), with small bias. However, on some simulations, true values were markedly outside reported confidence or credibility intervals. The blinded comparison revealed current limits and strengths in using HIV phylogenetics in challenging settings, provided benchmarks for future methods' development, and supports using the latest generation of phylogenetic tools to advance HIV surveillance and prevention.

Transition to Parenthood and HIV Infection in Rural Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

The relationship between the risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and people's choices about life course events describing the transition to parenthood-sexual debut, union (in the form of marriage, cohabitation, or long-term relationship), and parenthood-is still unclear. A crucial role in shaping this relationship may be played by the sequence of these events and by their timing. This suggests the opportunity to focus on the life courses in their entirety rather than on the specific events, thus adopting a holistic approach that regards each individual's life course trajectory as a whole.

METHODS

We summarise the individual life courses describing the transition to parenthood using ordered sequences of the three considered events. We aim to (i) investigate the association between the sequences and HIV infection, and (ii) understand how these sequences interact with known mechanisms for HIV transmission, such as the length of sexual exposure and the experience of non-regular sexual partnerships. For this purpose, we use data from a general population cohort study run in Manicaland (Zimbabwe), a Sub-Saharan African area characterised by high HIV prevalence.

RESULTS

For both genders, individuals who experienced either premarital or delayed childbearing have higher HIV risk compared to individuals following more standard transitions. This can be explained by the interplay of the sequences with known HIV proximate determinants, e.g., a longer exposure to sexual activity and higher rates of premarital sex. Moreover, we found that people in the younger birth cohorts experience more normative and safer sequences.

CONCLUSIONS

The shift of younger generations towards more normative transitions to parenthood is a sign of behaviour change that might have contributed to the observed reduction in HIV prevalence in the area. On the other hand, for people with less normative transitions, targeted strategies are essential for HIV prevention.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccination at a Time of Changing Sexual Behavior

Human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence varies widely worldwide. We used a transmission model to show links between age-specific sexual patterns and HPV vaccination effectiveness. We considered rural India and the United States as examples of 2 heterosexual populations with traditional age-specific sexual behavior and gender-similar age-specific sexual behavior, respectively. We simulated these populations by using age-specific rates of sexual activity and age differences between sexual partners and found that transitions from traditional to gender-similar sexual behavior in women <35 years of age can result in increased (2.6-fold in our study) HPV16 prevalence. Our model shows that reductions in HPV16 prevalence are larger if vaccination occurs in populations before transitions in sexual behavior and that increased risk for HPV infection attributable to transition is preventable by early vaccination. Our study highlights the importance of using time-limited opportunities to introduce HPV vaccination in traditional populations before changes in age-specific sexual patterns occur.

New Biomedical Technologies and Strategies for Prevention of HIV and Other Sexually Transmitted Infections

Sexually transmitted infections remain to be of public health concern in many developing countries. Their control is important, considering the high incidence of acute infections, complications and sequelae, and their socioeconomic impact. This article discusses the new biomedical technologies and strategies for the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.

Increased adolescent HIV testing with a hybrid mobile strategy in Uganda and Kenya

OBJECTIVE

We sought to increase adolescent HIV testing across rural communities in east Africa and identify predictors of undiagnosed HIV.

DESIGN

Hybrid mobile testing.

METHODS

We enumerated 116 326 adolescents (10-24 years) in 32 communities of Uganda and Kenya (

SEARCH

NCT01864603): 98 694 (85%) reported stable (≥6 months of prior year) residence. In each community we performed hybrid testing: 2-week multidisease community health campaign that included HIV testing, followed by home-based testing of community health campaign nonparticipants. We measured adolescent HIV testing coverage and prevalence, and determined predictors of newly diagnosed HIV among HIV-infected adolescents using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 86 421 (88%) stable adolescents tested for HIV; coverage was 86, 90, and 88% in early (10-14), mid (15-17), and late (18-24) adolescents, respectively. Self-reported prior testing was 9, 26, and 55% in early, mid, and late adolescents tested, respectively. HIV prevalence among adolescents tested was 1.6 and 0.6% in Ugandan women and men, and 7.1 and 1.5% in Kenyan women and men, respectively. Prevalence increased in mid-adolescence for women and late adolescence for men. Among HIV-infected adolescents, 58% reported newly diagnosed HIV. In multivariate analysis of HIV-infected adolescents, predictors of newly diagnosed HIV included male sex [odds ratio (OR) = 1.97 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42-2.73)], Ugandan residence [OR = 2.63 (95% CI: 2.08-3.31)], and single status [OR = 1.62 (95% CI: 1.23-2.14) vs. married)].

CONCLUSIONS

The SEARCH hybrid strategy tested 88% of stable adolescents for HIV, a substantial increase over the 28% reporting prior testing. The majority (57%) of HIV-infected adolescents were new diagnoses. Mobile HIV testing for adults should be leveraged to reach adolescents for HIV treatment and prevention.

The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model

BACKGROUND

Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM), representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, "key populations" based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex), HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies ("sites") conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections' credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data's confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections' credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site) and external training (between sites) by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia) in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential contribution of each group to transmission using a simple model that builds on the results from the IPM and makes further assumptions about sexual mixing patterns and transmission rates. In all countries except Swaziland, individuals in unions were the single group contributing to the largest proportion of new infections acquired (39%-77%), followed by never married women and men. Female sex workers accounted for a large proportion of new infections (5%-16%) compared to their population size. Individuals in unions were also the single largest contributor to the proportion of infections transmitted (35%-62%), followed by key populations and previously married men and women. Swaziland exhibited different incidence patterns, with never married men and women accounting for over 65% of new infections acquired and also contributing to a large proportion of infections transmitted (up to 56%). Between- and within-country variations indicated different incidence patterns in specific settings.

CONCLUSIONS

It is possible to reliably predict the distribution of new HIV infections acquired using data routinely available in many countries in the sub-Saharan African region with a single relatively simple mathematical model. This tool would complement more specific analyses to guide resource allocation, data collection, and programme planning.

Increases in Endogenous or Exogenous Progestins Promote Virus-Target Cell Interactions within the Non-human Primate Female Reproductive Tract

Currently, there are mounting data suggesting that HIV-1 acquisition in women can be affected by the use of certain hormonal contraceptives. However, in non-human primate models, endogenous or exogenous progestin-dominant states are shown to increase acquisition. To gain mechanistic insights into this increased acquisition, we studied how mucosal barrier function and CD4+ T-cell and CD68+ macrophage density and localization changed in the presence of natural progestins or after injection with high-dose DMPA. The presence of natural or injected progestins increased virus penetration of the columnar epithelium and the infiltration of susceptible cells into a thinned squamous epithelium of the vaginal vault, increasing the likelihood of potential virus interactions with target cells. These data suggest that increasing either endogenous or exogenous progestin can alter female reproductive tract barrier properties and provide plausible mechanisms for increased HIV-1 acquisition risk in the presence of increased progestin levels.

Sexual Behaviour of Men and Women within Age-Disparate Partnerships in South Africa: Implications for Young Women's HIV Risk

Background

Age-disparate partnerships are hypothesized to increase HIV-risk for young women. However, the evidence base remains mixed. Most studies have focused only on unprotected sex among women in the partnership. Consequently, little is known about other risky behaviours, such as transactional sex, alcohol use, and concurrency, as well as the behaviours of the men who partner with young women. We therefore examined differences in various sexual behaviours of both young women and their male partners by partnership age difference.

Methods

We used nationally representative data from South Africa (2012) on partnerships reported by 16–24 year old black African women (n = 818) and by black African men in partnerships with 16–24 year old women (n = 985). We compared sexual behaviours in age-disparate partnerships and age-similar partnerships, using multiple logistic regression to control for potential confounders and to assess rural/urban differences.

Results

Young women in age-disparate partnerships were more likely to report unprotected sex than young women in similar-aged partnerships (aOR:1.51; p = 0.014; 95%CI:1.09–2.11). Men in partnerships with young women were more likely to report unprotected sex (aOR:1.92; p<0.01; 95%CI:1.31–2.81), transactional sex (aOR:2.73; p<0.01; 95%CI:1.64–4.56), drinking alcohol before sex (aOR:1.60; p = 0.062; 95%CI:0.98–2.61), and concurrency (aOR:1.39; p = 0.097; 95%CI:0.94–2.07) when their partners were five or more years younger. The association between age-disparate partnerships and transactional sex (aOR:4.14; p<0.01; 95%CI: 2.03–8.46) and alcohol use (aOR:2.24; p<0.013; 95%CI:1.20–4.19) was only found in urban areas.

Conclusions

Results provide evidence that young women’s age-disparate partnerships involve greater sexual risk, particularly through the risky behaviours of their male partners, with the risk amplified for young women in urban areas.

Culture, myths and panic: Three decades and beyond with an HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is going through a generalised acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. The first five years of the epidemic (1985-1990) were characterised by lack of medicines against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and an exponential increase in prevalence (65-fold) and incidence (13-fold), which were fuelled by high-risk sexual behaviour. The high HIV prevalence, mortality and stigma yielded great fear and panic in the population, which are thought to have led to confusion and hopelessness, and, in turn, increased risky sexual behaviour. The country's government and civil society embarked on HIV awareness campaigns that are claimed to have played a central role in slowing down the epidemic since the mid-2000s. HIV-related mortality then fell by 70% between 2003 and 2013, which is attributed to high uptake of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (95%) prophylaxis. However, the epidemic has been characterised by a low paediatric ART coverage (35% in 2011 to 46.12% in 2013). Year 2014 saw an increase in adolescent and young adult HIV prevalence, which may be signalling a rebound of the epidemic. A more holistic approach which deals with the epidemic in its socio-political context is required to effectively lower the country's HIV burden.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

METHODS

For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.

FINDINGS

Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.

INTERPRETATION

Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

Declining HIV Prevalence in Parallel With Safer Sex Behaviors in Burkina Faso: Evidence From Surveillance and Population-Based Surveys

HIV prevalence among pregnant women ages 15–49 declined from 7.1% to 2.0% in urban areas between 1998 and 2014, and from 2.0% to 0.5% in rural areas between 2003 and 2014; similar declines were reported in the Demographic and Health Surveys. During the same time period, individuals reported safer sex behaviors, including delayed sexual debut and reduced number of sex partners among youth, as well as increased condom use at last sex with nonmarital partners among men and women ages 15–49.

Objective:

To investigate trends in HIV prevalence and changes in reported sexual behaviors between 1998 and 2014 in Burkina Faso.

Methods:

We obtained data on HIV prevalence from antenatal care (ANC) surveillance sites (N = 9) that were consistently included in surveillance between 1998 and 2014. We also analyzed data on HIV prevalence and reported sex behaviors from 3 population-based surveys from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), conducted in 1998–99, 2003, and 2010. Sex behavior indicators comprised never-married youth who have never had sex; sex with more than 1 partner; sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner; condom use at last sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner; and sex before age 15. We calculated survey-specific HIV prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and used the chi-square test or chi-square test for trend to compare HIV prevalence across survey years and to analyze trends in reported sex behaviors.

Results:

HIV prevalence among pregnant women ages 15–49 decreased by 72% in urban areas, from 7.1% in 1998 to 2.0% in 2014, and by 75% in rural areas, from 2.0% in 2003 to 0.5% in 2014. HIV declined most in younger age groups, which is a good reflection of recent incidence, with declines of 55% among 15–19-year-olds, 72% among 20–24-year-olds, 40% among 25–29-year-olds, and 7% among those ≥30 years old (considering urban and rural data combined). Data reported in the DHS corroborated these declines in HIV prevalence: between 2003 and 2010, HIV prevalence dropped significantly—by 89% among girls ages 15–19, from 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2 to 1.6) to 0.1% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.4), and by 78% among young women ages 20–24, from 1.8% (95% CI, 1.6 to 3.0) to 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.7). During the same time period, people reported safer sex behaviors. For example, significantly higher percentages of never-married youth reported they had never had sex, lower percentages of sexually active youth reported multiple sex partners, and lower percentages of youth reported having sex before age 15. In addition, the percentage of men ages 20–49 reporting sex with a nonmarital, non-cohabiting partner declined significantly, while condom use at last sex with such a partner increased significantly among both men and women ages 15–49.

Conclusions:

Both ANC surveillance and population-based surveys report sharp declines in HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso between 1998 and 2014, accompanied by improvements in reported risky sex behaviors.

Seeking wider access to HIV testing for adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa

More than 80% of the HIV-infected adolescents live in sub-Saharan Africa. Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related mortality has increased among adolescents 10-19 y old. The impact is highest in sub-Saharan Africa, where >80% of HIV-infected adolescents live. The World Health Organization has cited inadequate access to HIV testing and counseling (HTC) as a contributing factor to AIDS-related adolescent deaths, most of which occur in sub-Saharan Africa. This review focuses on studies conducted in high adolescent HIV-burden countries targeted by the "All In to End Adolescent AIDS" initiative, and describes barriers to adolescent HTC uptake and coverage. Fear of stigma and family reaction, fear of the impact of a positive diagnosis, perceived risk with respect to sexual exposure, poor attitudes of healthcare providers, and parental consent requirements are identified as major impediments. Most-at-risk adolescents for HIV infection and missed opportunities for testing include, those perinatally infected, those with early sexual debut, high mobility and multiple/older partners, and pregnant and nonpregnant females. Regional analyses show relatively low adolescent testing rates and more restrictive consent requirements for HTC in West and Central Africa as compared to East and southern Africa. Actionable recommendations for widening adolescent access to HTC and therefore timely care include minimizing legal consent barriers, healthcare provider training, parental education and involvement, and expanding testing beyond healthcare facilities.

Degree and correlates of sexual mixing in female sex workers in Karnataka, India

Background The degree of sexual mixing plays an important role in understanding disparities in sexually transmissible infections and HIV across social groups. This study examines the degree of sexual age mixing, and explores its individual and partnership level correlates among female sex workers (FSWs) in Karnataka, India.

METHODS

Data were drawn from special behavioural surveys conducted in 2006-07 among 577 FSWs in two districts of Karnataka: Belgaum and Bangalore. Sexual mixing in age was assessed as the difference in age between FSWs and their sexual partners, and the degree of assortativeness in sexual mixing was assessed using Newman's assortativity coefficient.

RESULTS

A total of 577 FSWs were interviewed; 418 of whom reported two or more partnerships, resulting in 942 partnerships. In about half (52%) of these partnerships, the age difference between the FSW and her sexual partner was 5 years or more. The degree of assortativity in age mixing was 0.098, indicating minimally assortative mixing. The disassortativeness in age mixing was positively associated with young age and no formal education, and negatively with duration in sex work. Partnerships which were of a commercial nature were more likely to be disassortative than noncommercial partnerships.

CONCLUSION

The minimally assortative age mixing indicates sexually transmissible infections can transfer from members of one age group to another. Efforts are required to limit the transmission of infection from one group to other by promoting safer sexual behaviour.