Child mortality and malaria transmission intensity in Africa

Determination of the processes driving the acquisition of immunity to malaria using a mathematical transmission model

Acquisition of partially protective immunity is a dominant feature of the epidemiology of malaria among exposed individuals. The processes that determine the acquisition of immunity to clinical disease and to asymptomatic carriage of malaria parasites are poorly understood, in part because of a lack of validated immunological markers of protection. Using mathematical models, we seek to better understand the processes that determine observed epidemiological patterns. We have developed an age-structured mathematical model of malaria transmission in which acquired immunity can act in three ways ("immunity functions"): reducing the probability of clinical disease, speeding the clearance of parasites, and increasing tolerance to subpatent infections. Each immunity function was allowed to vary in efficacy depending on both age and malaria transmission intensity. The results were compared to age patterns of parasite prevalence and clinical disease in endemic settings in northeastern Tanzania and The Gambia. Two types of immune function were required to reproduce the epidemiological age-prevalence curves seen in the empirical data; a form of clinical immunity that reduces susceptibility to clinical disease and develops with age and exposure (with half-life of the order of five years or more) and a form of anti-parasite immunity which results in more rapid clearance of parasitaemia, is acquired later in life and is longer lasting (half-life of >20 y). The development of anti-parasite immunity better reproduced observed epidemiological patterns if it was dominated by age-dependent physiological processes rather than by the magnitude of exposure (provided some exposure occurs). Tolerance to subpatent infections was not required to explain the empirical data. The model comprising immunity to clinical disease which develops early in life and is exposure-dependent, and anti-parasite immunity which develops later in life and is not dependent on the magnitude of exposure, appears to best reproduce the pattern of parasite prevalence and clinical disease by age in different malaria transmission settings. Understanding the effector mechanisms underlying these two immune functions will assist in the design of transmission-reducing interventions against malaria.

Cost-sharing strategies combining targeted public subsidies with private-sector delivery achieve high bednet coverage and reduced malaria transmission in Kilombero Valley, southern Tanzania

Background

Cost-sharing schemes incorporating modest targeted subsidies have promoted insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for malaria prevention in the Kilombero Valley, southern Tanzania, since 1996. Here we evaluate resulting changes in bednet coverage and malaria transmission.

Methods

Bednets were sold through local agents at fixed prices representing a 34% subsidy relative to full delivery cost. A further targeted subsidy of 15% was provided to vulnerable groups through discount vouchers delivered through antenatal clinics and regular immunizations. Continuous entomological surveys (2,376 trap nights) were conducted from October 2001 to September 2003 in 25 randomly-selected population clusters of a demographic surveillance system which monitored net coverage.

Results

Mean net usage of 75% (11,982/16,086) across all age groups was achieved but now-obsolete technologies available at the time resulted in low insecticide treatment rates. Malaria transmission remained intense but was substantially reduced: Compared with an exceptionally high historical mean EIR of 1481, even non-users of nets were protected (EIR [fold reduction] = 349 infectious bites per person per year [×4]), while the average resident (244 [×6]), users of typical nets (210 [×7]) and users of insecticidal nets (105 [×14]) enjoyed increasing benefits.

Conclusion

Despite low net treatment levels, community-level protection was equivalent to the personal protection of an ITN. Greater gains for net users and non-users are predicted if more expensive long-lasting ITN technologies can be similarly promoted with correspondingly augmented subsidies. Cost sharing strategies represent an important option for national programmes lacking adequate financing to fully subsidize comprehensive ITN coverage.

Transmission-blocking activity induced by malaria vaccine candidates Pfs25/Pvs25 is a direct and predictable function of antibody titer

Background

Mosquito stage malaria vaccines are designed to induce an immune response in the human host that will block the parasite's growth in the mosquito and consequently block transmission of the parasite. A mosquito membrane-feeding assay (MFA) is used to test transmission-blocking activity (TBA), but in this technique cannot accommodate many samples. A clear understanding of the relationship between antibody levels and TBA may allow ELISA determinations to be used to predict TBA and assist in planning vaccine development.

Methods

Rabbit anti-Pfs25 sera and monkey anti-Pvs25 sera were generated and the antibody titers were determined by a standardized ELISA. The biological activity of the same sera was tested by MFA using Plasmodium gametocytes (cultured Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax from malaria patients) and Anopheles mosquitoes.

Results

Anti-Pfs25 and anti-Pvs25 sera showed that ELISA antibody units correlate with the percent reduction in the oocyst density per mosquito (Spearman Rank correlations: 0.934 and 0.616, respectively), and fit a hyperbolic curve when percent reduction in oocyst density is plotted against antibody units of the tested sample. Antibody levels also correlated with the number of mosquitoes that failed to become infected, and this proportion can be calculated from the reduction in oocyst numbers and the distribution of oocysts per infected mosquito in control group.

Conclusion

ELISA data may be used as a surrogate for the MFA to evaluate transmission-blocking vaccine efficacy. This will facilitate the evaluation of transmission-blocking vaccines and implementation of this malaria control strategy.

Exploring the contributions of bed nets, cattle, insecticides and excitorepellency to malaria control: a deterministic model of mosquito host-seeking behaviour and mortality

Domestic and personal protection measures against malaria exposure either divert host-seeking vectors to other hosts or kill those attempting to feed. Here, we explicitly model mosquito host-seeking processes in the context of local host availability and elucidate the impacts and mechanisms of pyrethroid-treated bed nets in Africa. It has been suggested that excitorepellent insecticides could increase exposure of unprotected humans by concentrating mosquito biting activity on this vulnerable group. This worst-case scenario is confirmed as a possibility where vector populations lack alternative hosts, but an approximate ‘break-even’ scenario, with users experiencing little overall change in exposure, is more likely because of increased mosquito mortality while foraging for resources. Insecticidal nets are predicted to have epidemiologically significant impacts on transmission experienced by users and non-users at levels of coverage that can be achieved by sustainable net distribution systems, regardless of excitorepellency or the ecological setting. The results are consistent with the outcome of several randomised controlled trials, predicting enormous reductions in transmission at individual and community levels. As financial support, technology and distribution systems for insecticide-treated nets improve, massive reductions in malaria transmission could be realised.

Preventing childhood malaria in Africa by protecting adults from mosquitoes with insecticide-treated nets

BACKGROUND

Malaria prevention in Africa merits particular attention as the world strives toward a better life for the poorest. Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) represent a practical means to prevent malaria in Africa, so scaling up coverage to at least 80% of young children and pregnant women by 2010 is integral to the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Targeting individual protection to vulnerable groups is an accepted priority, but community-level impacts of broader population coverage are largely ignored even though they may be just as important. We therefore estimated coverage thresholds for entire populations at which individual- and community-level protection are equivalent, representing rational targets for ITN coverage beyond vulnerable groups.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using field-parameterized malaria transmission models, we show that high (80% use) but exclusively targeted coverage of young children and pregnant women (representing <20% of the population) will deliver limited protection and equity for these vulnerable groups. In contrast, relatively modest coverage (35%-65% use, with this threshold depending on ecological scenario and net quality) of all adults and children, rather than just vulnerable groups, can achieve equitable community-wide benefits equivalent to or greater than personal protection.

CONCLUSIONS

Coverage of entire populations will be required to accomplish large reductions of the malaria burden in Africa. While coverage of vulnerable groups should still be prioritized, the equitable and communal benefits of wide-scale ITN use by older children and adults should be explicitly promoted and evaluated by national malaria control programmes. ITN use by the majority of entire populations could protect all children in such communities, even those not actually covered by achieving existing personal protection targets of the MDG, Roll Back Malaria Partnership, or the US President's Malaria Initiative.

Quantifying behavioural interactions between humans and mosquitoes: evaluating the protective efficacy of insecticidal nets against malaria transmission in rural Tanzania

Background

African malaria vectors bite predominantly indoors at night so sleeping under an Insecticide-Treated Net (ITN) can greatly reduce malaria risk. Behavioural adaptation by mosquitoes to increasing ITN coverage could allow vector mosquitoes to bite outside of peak sleeping hours and undermine efficacy of this key malaria prevention measure.

Methods

High coverage with largely untreated nets has been achieved in the Kilombero Valley, southern Tanzania through social marketing programmes. Direct surveys of nightly biting activity by An. gambiae Giles were conducted in the area before (1997) and after (2004) implementation of ITN promotion. A novel analytical model was applied to estimate the effective protection provided by an ITN, based on published experimental hut trials combined with questionnaire surveys of human sleeping behaviour and recorded mosquito biting patterns.

Results

An. gambiae was predominantly endophagic and nocturnal in both surveys: Approximately 90% and 80% of exposure occurred indoors and during peak sleeping hours, respectively. ITNs consistently conferred >70% protection against exposure to malaria transmission for users relative to non-users.

Conclusion

As ITN coverage increases, behavioural adaptation by mosquitoes remains a future possibility. The approach described allows comparison of mosquito biting patterns and ITN efficacy at multiple study sites and times. Initial results indicate ITNs remain highly effective and should remain a top-priority intervention. Combined with recently developed transmission models, this approach allows rapid, informative and cost-effective preliminary comparison of diverse control strategies in terms of protection against exposure before more costly and intensive clinical trials.

A review of human vaccine research and development: malaria

The last several years have seen significant progress in the development of vaccines against malaria. Most recently, proof-of-concept of vaccine-induced protection from malaria infection and disease was demonstrated in African children. Pursued by various groups and on many fronts, several other candidate vaccines are in early clinical trials. Yet, despite the optimism and promise, an effective malaria vaccine is not yet available, in part because of the lack of understanding of the types of immune responses needed for protection, added to the difficulty of identifying, selecting and producing the appropriate protective antigens from a parasite with a genome of well over five thousand genes and to the frequent need to enhance the immunogenicity of purified antigens through the use of novel adjuvants or delivery systems. Insufficient clinical trial capacity and normative research functions such as local ethical committee reviews also contribute to slow down the development process. This article attempts to summarize the state of the art of malaria vaccine development.

An epidemiologic model of severe morbidity and mortality caused by Plasmodium falciparum

The intensity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission has multifarious and sometimes counter-intuitive effects on age-specific rates of severe morbidity and mortality in endemic areas. This has led to conflicting speculations about the likely impact of malaria control interventions. We propose a quantitative framework to reconcile the various apparently contradictory observations relating morbidity and mortality rates to malaria transmission. Our model considers two sub-categories of severe malaria episodes. These comprise episodes with extremely high parasite densities in hosts with little previous exposure, and acute malaria episodes accompanied by co-morbidity or other risk factors enhancing susceptibility. In addition to direct malaria mortality from severe malaria episodes, the model also considers the enhanced risk of indirect mortality following acute episodes accompanied by co-morbidity after the parasites have been cleared. We fit this model to summaries of field data from endemic areas of Africa, and show that it can account for the observed age- and exposure-specific patterns of pediatric severe malaria and malaria-associated mortality in children. This model will allow us to make predictions of the long-term impact of potential malaria interventions. Predictions for children will be more reliable than those for older people because there is a paucity of epidemiologic studies of adults and adolescents.

The effect of malaria transmission intensity on neonatal mortality in endemic areas

Estimates of the impact of Plasmodium falciparum infections during pregnancy on neonatal mortality have not taken into account how this varies with the level of malaria endemicity and thus do not indicate the possible effects of malaria control strategies that reduce transmission. We now review the relevant literature, and propose a mathematical model for the association between P. falciparum transmission and neonatal death. The excess risk of neonatal mortality in malaria-endemic areas appears to be insensitive to the intensity of P. falciparum transmission over a wide range of endemicity. Moderate reductions in the overall level of malaria transmission in endemic areas are therefore unlikely to significantly reduce neonatal mortality. The magnitude of the excess risk is very uncertain because existing estimates are heavily dependent on the questionable assumption that the effects are mediated by birth weight. Accurate prediction of the impact of malaria control measures targeted at pregnant women requires direct estimates of malaria-attributable neonatal mortality rates.

Infectiousness of malaria-endemic human populations to vectors

Despite its key role in determining the stability and intensity of malaria transmission, the infectiousness of human populations to mosquitoes has rarely been estimated. Field-based analyses of malaria transmission have frequently relied on the prevalence of asexual parasites or gametocytes as proxies for infectiousness. We now summarize empirical data on human infectiousness from Africa and Papua New Guinea. Over a wide range of transmission intensities there is little relationship between the infectiousness of human populations to vector mosquitoes and mosquito-to-human transmission intensity. We compare these data with the predictions of a stochastic simulation model of Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology. This model predicted little variation in the infectiousness of the human population for entomologic inoculation rates (EIRs) greater than approximately 10 infectious bites per year, demonstrating that the lack of relationship between the EIR and the infectious reservoir can be explained without invoking any effects of acquired transmission-blocking immunity. The near absence of field data from areas with an EIR < 10 per year precluded validation of the model predictions for low EIR values. These results suggest that interventions reducing mosquito-to-human transmission will have little or no effect on human infectiousness at the levels of transmission found in most rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa. Unless very large reductions in transmission can be achieved, measures to prevent mosquito-to-human transmission need to be complemented with interventions that reduce the density or infectiousness of blood stage parasites.

Low larval vector survival explains unstable malaria in the western Kenya highlands

Several highland areas in eastern Africa have recently suffered from serious malaria epidemics. Some models predict that, in the short term, these areas will experience more epidemics as a result of global warming. However, the various processes underlying these changes are poorly understood. We therefore investigated malaria prevalence, malaria vector densities and malaria vector survival in a highland area in western Kenya, ranging from approximately 1,550-1,650 m altitude. Although only five adult malaria vectors were collected during 180 light traps and 180 resting collections over a 23-month study period, malaria was prevalent among school children (average parasite prevalence: 10%). During an extensive survey of potential larval habitats, we identified only seven habitats containing Anopheles gambiae Giles s.l. larvae. Their limited number and low larval densities suggested that their contribution to the adult vector population was small. Experiments on adult and larval survival showed that at this altitude, adult mosquitoes survived inside local houses, but that larval development was severely retarded: only 2 of 500 A. gambiae s.l. larvae developed to the pupal stage, whereas all other larvae died prior to pupation. At present, high vector densities are unlikely because of unfavourable abiotic conditions in the area. However, temporary favourable conditions, such as during El Niño years, may increase larval vector survival and may lead to malaria epidemics.

Community-based surveillance of malaria vector larval habitats: a baseline study in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

As the population of Africa rapidly urbanizes it may be possible to protect large populations from malaria by controlling aquatic stages of mosquitoes. Here we present a baseline evaluation of the ability of community members to detect mosquito larval habitats with minimal training and supervision in the first weeks of an operational urban malaria control program.

METHODS

The Urban Malaria Control Programme of Dar es Salaam recruited and provided preliminary training to teams of Community-Owned Resource Persons (CORPs) who performed weekly surveys of mosquito breeding sites. Two trained mosquito biologists accompanied each of these teams for one week and evaluated the sensitivity of this system for detecting potential Anopheles habitats.

RESULTS

Overall, 42.4% of 986 habitats surveyed by an inspection team had previously been identified by CORPs. Agricultural habitats were detected less often than other habitats (30.8% detected, Odds Ratio [95%CI] = 0.46 [0.29-0.73], P = 0.001). Non-agricultural artificial habitats were less suitable than other habitats (29.3% occupancy, OR = 0.69 [0.46-1.03], P = 0.066) but still constituted 45% (169/289) of occupied habitats because of their abundance (51 % of all habitats).

CONCLUSION

The levels of coverage achieved by modestly trained and supported CORPs at the start of the Dar es Salaam UMCP were insufficient to enable effective suppression of malaria transmission through larval control. Further operational research is required to develop surveillance systems that are practical, affordable, effective and acceptable so that community-based integrated vector management can be implemented in cities across Africa.

The burden of malaria mortality among African children in the year 2000

BACKGROUND

Although malaria is a leading cause of child deaths, few well-documented estimates of its direct and indirect burden exist. Our objective was to estimate the number of deaths directly attributable to malaria among children <5 years old in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2000.

METHODS

We divided the population into six sub-populations and, using results of studies identified in a literature review, estimated a malaria mortality rate for each sub-population. Malaria deaths were estimated by multiplying each sub-population by its corresponding rate. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of varying key assumptions.

RESULTS

The literature review identified 31 studies from 14 countries in middle Africa and 17 studies and reports from four countries in southern Africa. In 2000, we estimated that approximately 100 million children lived in areas where malaria transmission occurs and that 803 620 (precision estimate: 705 821-901 418) children died from the direct effects of malaria. For all of sub-Saharan Africa, including populations not exposed to malaria, malaria accounted for 18.0% (precision estimate: 15.8-20.2%) of child deaths. These estimates were sensitive to extreme assumptions about the causes of deaths with no known cause.

CONCLUSIONS

These estimates, based on the best available data and methods, clearly demonstrate malaria's enormous mortality burden. We emphasize that these estimates are an approximation with many limitations and that the estimates do not account for malaria's large indirect burden. We describe information needs that, if filled, might improve the validity of future estimates.

The Farmer Field School: a method for enhancing the role of rural communities in malaria control ?

Malaria has strong linkages with agriculture, and farmers in malarious regions have a central position in creating or controlling the conditions that favour disease transmission. An interdisciplinary and integrated approach is needed to involve farmers and more than one sector in control efforts. It is suggested that malaria control can benefit from a complementary intervention in rural development, the Farmer Field School (FFS) on Integrated Pest Management (IPM). This is a form of education that uses experiential learning methods to build farmers' expertise, and has proven farm-level and empowerment effects. The benefits of incorporating malaria control into the IPM curriculum are discussed. An example of a combined health-agriculture curriculum, labeled Integrated Pest and Vector Management (IPVM), developed in Sri Lanka is presented. Institutional ownership and support for IPVM could potentially be spread over several public sectors requiring a process for institutional learning and reform.

Gene drive systems in mosquitoes: rules of the road

Population replacement strategies for controlling transmission of mosquito-borne diseases call for the introgression of antipathogen effector genes into vector populations. It is anticipated that these genes, if present at high enough frequencies, will impede transmission of the target pathogens and result in reduced human morbidity and mortality. Recent laboratory successes in the development of virus- and protozoan-resistant mosquito strains make urgent research of gene drive systems capable of moving effector genes into wild populations. A systematic approach to developing safe and effective gene drive systems that includes defining the requirements of the system, identifying naturally occurring or synthetic genetic mechanisms for gene spread upon which drive systems can be based and the successful adaptation of a mechanism to a drive system, should mitigate concerns about using genetically engineered mosquitoes for disease control.

Does malaria suffer from lack of memory?

It is widely perceived that immunity to malaria is, to an extent, defective and that one component of this defective immune response is the inability to induce or maintain long-term memory responses. If true, this is likely to pose problems for development of an effective vaccine against malaria. In this article, we critically review and challenge this interpretation of the epidemiological and experimental evidence. While evasion and modulation of host immune responses clearly occurs and naturally acquired immunity is far from optimal, mechanisms to control blood-stage parasites are acquired and maintained by individuals living in endemic areas, allowing parasite density to be kept below the threshold for induction of acute disease. Furthermore, protective immunity to severe pathology is achieved relatively rapidly and is maintained in the absence of boosting by re-infection. Nevertheless, there are significant challenges to overcome. The need for multiple infections to acquire immunity means that young children remain at risk of infection for far too long. Persistent or frequent exposure to antigen seems to be required to maintain anti-parasite immunity (premunition). Lastly, pre-erythrocytic and sexual stages of the life cycle are poorly immunogenic, and there is little evidence of effective pre-erythrocytic or transmission-blocking immunity at the population level. While these problems might theoretically be due to defective immunological memory, we suggest alternative explanations. Moreover, we question the extent to which these problems are malaria-specific rather than generic (i.e. result from inherent limitations of the vertebrate immune system).

The practical importance of permanent and semipermanent habitats for controlling aquatic stages of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes: operational observations from a rural town in western Kenya

Control of aquatic-stage Anopheles is one of the oldest and most historically successful interventions to prevent malaria, but it has seen little application in Africa. Consequently, the ecology of immature afrotropical Anopheles has received insufficient attention. We therefore examined the population dynamics of African anopheline and culicine mosquitoes using operationally practicable techniques to examine the relative importance and availability of different larval habitats in an area of perennial malaria transmission in preparation for a pilot-scale larval control programme. The study was conducted in Mbita, a rural town on the shores of Lake Victoria in Western Kenya, over 20 months. Weekly larval surveys were conducted to identify the availability of stagnant water, habitat characteristics and larval densities. Adult mosquitoes were collected indoors at fortnightly intervals. Availability of aquatic habitats and abundance of mosquito larvae were directly correlated with rainfall. Adult mosquito densities followed similar patterns but with a time-lag of approximately 1 month. About 70% of all available habitats were man-made, half of them representing cement-lined pits. On average, 67% of all aquatic habitats on a given sampling date were colonized by Anopheles larvae, of which all identified morphologically were A. gambiae sensu lato. Natural and artificial habitats were equally productive over the study period and larval densities were positively correlated with presence of tufts of low vegetation and negatively with non-matted algal content. The permanence of a habitat had no significant influence on larval productivity. We conclude that A. gambiae is broadly distributed across a variety of habitat types, regardless of permanence. All potential breeding sites need to be considered as sources of malaria risk at any time of the year and exhaustively targeted in any larval control intervention.

Urbanization, malaria transmission and disease burden in Africa

Many attempts have been made to quantify Africa's malaria burden but none has addressed how urbanization will affect disease transmission and outcome, and therefore mortality and morbidity estimates. In 2003, 39% of Africa's 850 million people lived in urban settings; by 2030, 54% of Africans are expected to do so. We present the results of a series of entomological, parasitological and behavioural meta-analyses of studies that have investigated the effect of urbanization on malaria in Africa. We describe the effect of urbanization on both the impact of malaria transmission and the concomitant improvements in access to preventative and curative measures. Using these data, we have recalculated estimates of populations at risk of malaria and the resulting mortality. We find there were 1,068,505 malaria deaths in Africa in 2000 - a modest 6.7% reduction over previous iterations. The public-health implications of these findings and revised estimates are discussed.

Coupling ecology and evolution: malaria and the S-gene across time scales

Malaria has long been a scourge to humans. The exceptionally high mortality in some regions has led to strong selection for resistance, even at the cost of increased risk of potentially fatal red blood cell deformities in some offspring. In particular, genes that confers resistance to malaria when they appear in heterozygous individuals are known to lead to sickle-cell anemia, or other blood diseases, when they appear in homozygous form. Thus, there is balancing selection against the evolution of resistance, with the strength of that selection dependent upon malaria prevalence. Over longer time scales, the increased frequency of resistance in a population might be expected to decrease the frequency of malaria and reduce selection for resistance. However, possession of the sickle-cell gene leads to longer-lasting parasitaemia in heterozygote individuals, and therefore the presence of resistance may actually increase infection prevalence. In this paper, we explore the interplay among these processes, operating over very different time scales. In particular, we show that on the fast time scale of malarial dynamics, the disease level reaches an equilibrium; on the slower, evolutionary time scale, this equilibrium tracks gene frequency. We analyze the slow time scale dynamics to investigate the impact of malaria on the evolution of resistance.

Insecticide-treated bed nets and curtains for preventing malaria

BACKGROUND

Malaria is an important cause of illness and death in many parts of the world, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. There has been a renewed emphasis on preventive measures at community and individual levels. Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are the most prominent malaria preventive measure for large-scale deployment in highly endemic areas.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets or curtains on mortality, malarial illness (life-threatening and mild), malaria parasitaemia, anaemia, and spleen rates.

SEARCH STRATEGY

I searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group trials register (January 2003), CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library, Issue 1, 2003), MEDLINE (1966 to October 2003), EMBASE (1974 to November 2002), LILACS (1982 to January 2003), and reference lists of reviews, books, and trials. I handsearched journals, contacted researchers, funding agencies, and net and insecticide manufacturers.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Individual and cluster randomized controlled trials of insecticide-treated bed nets or curtains compared to nets without insecticide or no nets. Trials including only pregnant women were excluded.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

The reviewer and two independent assessors reviewed trials for inclusion. The reviewer assessed trial methodological quality and extracted and analysed data.

MAIN RESULTS

Fourteen cluster randomized and eight individually randomized controlled trials met the inclusion criteria. Five trials measured child mortality: ITNs provided 17% protective efficacy (PE) compared to no nets (relative rate 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76 to 0.90), and 23% PE compared to untreated nets (relative rate 0.77, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.95). About 5.5 lives (95% CI 3.39 to 7.67) can be saved each year for every 1000 children protected with ITNs. In areas with stable malaria, ITNs reduced the incidence of uncomplicated malarial episodes in areas of stable malaria by 50% compared to no nets, and 39% compared to untreated nets; and in areas of unstable malaria: by 62% for compared to no nets and 43% compared to untreated nets for Plasmodium falciparum episodes, and by 52% compared to no nets and 11% compared to untreated nets for P. vivax episodes. When compared to no nets and in areas of stable malaria, ITNs also had an impact on severe malaria (45% PE, 95% CI 20 to 63), parasite prevalence (13% PE), high parasitaemia (29% PE), splenomegaly (30% PE), and their use improved the average haemoglobin level in children by 1.7% packed cell volume.

REVIEWERS' CONCLUSIONS

ITNs are highly effective in reducing childhood mortality and morbidity from malaria. Widespread access to ITNs is currently being advocated by Roll Back Malaria, but universal deployment will require major financial, technical, and operational inputs.

Measurement of trends in childhood malaria mortality in Africa: an assessment of progress toward targets based on verbal autopsy

Reduction of deaths associated with malaria in children is a primary goal of malaria control programmes in Africa, but there has been little discussion about how changes in mortality will be measured. This paper assesses recent historical changes in the contribution of malaria to child survival in Africa by examining data from demographic surveillance systems (DSS) in 25 mainly rural settings. The data were adjusted for the varying sensitivity and specificity of verbal autopsies (VA) in different ranges of malaria mortality and for varying parasite prevalences. Average malaria mortality in the DSS sites in west Africa was 7.8 per 1000 child-years between 1982 and 1998; the rate did not change significantly over this period. In the sites in east and southern Africa combined, malaria mortality was 6.5 per 1000 child-years between 1982 and 1989, but it increased to 11.9 per 1000 child-years between 1990 and 1998. All-cause child mortality and non-malaria mortality, by contrast, decreased significantly over time in both regions; consequently, the proportion of deaths due to malaria rose from 18% to 23% in west African sites and from 18% to 37% in east and southern African sites between 1982-89 and 1990-98. If malaria mortality fell at a rate consistent with the Roll Back Malaria target of halving malaria mortality by the year 2010, an individual DSS of a total population of 63 500 could with adequate VA adjustment detect this reduction after 7 years.

Taking malaria transmission out of the bottle: implications of mosquito dispersal for vector-control interventions

Most malaria transmission models assume enclosed systems of people, parasites, and vectors in which neither emigration nor immigration of mosquitoes is considered. This simplification has facilitated insightful analyses but has substantial limitations for evaluating control measures in the field. Here we show that mosquito dispersal can confound conventional approaches to evaluating malaria vector-control interventions, and explore this association with a model of two villages between which mosquito subpopulation exchange occurs. Exchange of mosquitoes between such subpopulations can readily explain the discrepancy between experimental efficacy measurements for insecticide-treated nets and their much lower apparent effectiveness when in use. Our results indicate that current approaches to assessing malaria interventions that confer community-level protection may be severely compromised by mosquito dispersal in many endemic settings. The true effectiveness of many vector-control methods may be much greater than previously appreciated and the application of such interventions should be consolidated into larger contiguous spatial units so that more effective local suppression of malaria can be achieved. Spatially explicit modelling formats that consider vector dispersal as a determinant of malaria transmission and control are needed urgently for rational planning and evaluation of efforts to roll back malaria.

Transmission-blocking vaccine of vivax malaria

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of both morbidity and mortality of humans residing in tropical countries. For many malarious regions outside of Africa, development of effective transmission-blocking vaccines will require coverage against both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. The genes coding for two potential P. vivax transmission-blocking antigens, Pvs25 and Pvs28, have been cloned. Mice vaccinated with yeast-produced recombinant proteins Pvs25 and Pvs28 adsorbed to aluminum hydroxide developed strong antibody responses against the immunogens. The development of oocysts in mosquitoes was completely inhibited when these antisera were ingested with the P. vivax Salvador (Sal) I strain-infected chimpanzee blood. In a large collection of P. vivax field isolates, we found only 5 nucleotide changes that would result in amino acid substitutions in Pvs25. In contrast, the Pvs28 gene had 22 nucleotide changes that would result in conservative amino acid substitutions. How the antigenic polymorphism of Pvs25 and Pvs28 would affect the efficacy of Sal I based vaccine remains to be elucidated. Clinical trials with Pvs25 and the P. falciparum ortholog Pfs25 are in preparation.

An individual-based model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission on the coast of Kenya

Individual-based models provide powerful tools to model complex interactions characterized by individual variability. This paper presents an object-oriented design for individual-based modelling of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission. Two kinds of objects, human and mosquito, that exhibit variability among individuals for parameters such as recovery and survival rates are defined. The model tracks the dynamics of human hosts and adult female mosquitoes individually. Immunity, modelled as a function of exposure history, is represented by reduced susceptibility and increased recovery rate. The model was calibrated using epidemiological data collected at 30 sites along the coast of Kenya. The sites were grouped into low, intermediate and high transmission based on mean daily human-biting rates. Simulation results show that malaria transmission was stable even in low transmission areas where the human-biting rate is approximately 0.5 bite per day. The model was used to examine the effect of infection control programmes that aim at interrupting transmission by reducing human-vector contact rates and implementing active case detection and drug treatment of infections. With this intervention, local elimination of malaria is likely with a probability of extinction of approximately 0.8 in low transmission areas. However, a small amount of immigration (> 0.3%) by infected people into the community could prevent local extinction of the parasite. In intermediate and high transmission areas, reduction in prevalence is short-lived and the probability of local elimination is low, even at high coverage levels of the intervention.

The ecology of genetically modified mosquitoes

Ecological and population biology issues constitute serious challenges to the application of genetically modified mosquitos (GMM) for disease control.

Eradication of Anopheles gambiae from Brazil: lessons for malaria control in Africa?

Current malaria-control strategies emphasise domestic protection against adult mosquitoes with insecticides, and improved access to medical services. Malaria prevention by killing adult mosquitoes is generally favoured because moderately reducing their longevity can radically suppress community-level transmission. By comparison, controlling larvae has a less dramatic effect at any given level of coverage and is often more difficult to implement. Nevertheless, the historically most effective campaign against African vectors is the eradication of accidentally introduced Anopheles gambiae from 54000 km(2) of largely ideal habitat in northeast Brazil in the 1930s and early 1940s. This outstanding success was achieved through an integrated programme but relied overwhelmingly upon larval control. This experience was soon repeated in Egypt and another larval control programme successfully suppressed malaria for over 20 years around a Zambian copper mine. These affordable approaches were neglected after the advent of dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (DDT) and global malaria-control policy shifted toward domestic adulticide methods. Larval-control methods should now be re-prioritised for research, development, and implementation as an additional way to roll back malaria.

Risk of malaria attacks in Gambian children is greater away from malaria vector breeding sites

The causes of local variation in the prevalence of malaria were investigated in rural Gambia. Cross-sectional prevalence surveys were carried out among 1184 young children (aged 6 months-5 years) in 48 villages, at the end of the transmission season in 1996. Villages were categorized according to distance from the nearest vector breeding sites, and the patterns of malaria transmission, infection and disease compared. Children living in villages within 3 km of breeding sites experienced more infective bites, and higher prevalences of parasitaemia and spleen enlargement than less-exposed children living further away. Clinical illness, in contrast, was more common among infected children who were less exposed. Infected children living 3 km or more from breeding sites were more likely to have high-density parasitaemia (odds ratio [OR] = 1.98), fever (OR = 2.60) and high-density parasitaemia together with fever (OR = 3.17). Clinical attacks did not decline in older children, as seen amongst children who were more exposed. These findings show that significant differences in the risk of infection and clinical attacks can occur over very short distances. The age at which protective immunity is acquired may be delayed in villages where transmission intensity is lower, thus increasing the risk of a clinical attack following infection. Communities with the lowest vector densities may be those at greatest risk of disease.

Molecular basis for the dichotomy in Plasmodium falciparum adhesion to CD36 and chondroitin sulfate A

Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes adhere dichotomously to the host receptors CD36 and chondroitin sulfate A (CSA). This dichotomy is associated with parasite sequestration to microvasculature beds (CD36) or placenta (CSA), leading to site-specific pathogenesis. Both properties are mediated by members of the variant P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP-1) family and reside on nonoverlapping domains of the molecule. To identify the molecular basis for the apparent dichotomy, we expressed various domains of PfEMP-1 individually or in combination and tested their binding properties. We found that the CD36-binding mode of the cysteine-rich interdomain region-1 (CIDR1) ablates the ability of the Duffy binding-like gamma domain to bind CSA. In contrast, neither a non-CD36-binding CIDR1 nor an intercellular adhesion molecule 1 binding domain had any affect on CSA binding. Our findings point out that interactions between different domains of PfEMP-1 can alter the adhesion phenotype of infected erythrocytes and provide a molecular basis for the apparent dichotomy in adhesion. We suggest that the basis for the dichotomy is structural and that mutually exclusive conformations of PfEMP-1 are involved in binding to CD36 or CSA. Furthermore, we propose a model explaining the requirement for structural dichotomy between placental and nonplacental isolates.

Advantages of larval control for African malaria vectors: low mobility and behavioural responsiveness of immature mosquito stages allow high effective coverage

BACKGROUND

Based on sensitivity analysis of the MacDonald-Ross model, it has long been argued that the best way to reduce malaria transmission is to target adult female mosquitoes with insecticides that can reduce the longevity and human-feeding frequency of vectors. However, these analyses have ignored a fundamental biological difference between mosquito adults and the immature stages that precede them: adults are highly mobile flying insects that can readily detect and avoid many intervention measures whereas mosquito eggs, larvae and pupae are confined within relatively small aquatic habitats and cannot readily escape control measures.

PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS

We hypothesize that the control of adult but not immature mosquitoes is compromised by their ability to avoid interventions such as excito-repellant insecticides.

TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS

We apply a simple model of intervention avoidance by mosquitoes and demonstrate that this can substantially reduce effective coverage, in terms of the proportion of the vector population that is covered, and overall impact on malaria transmission. We review historical evidence that larval control of African malaria vectors can be effective and conclude that the only limitations to the effective coverage of larval control are practical rather than fundamental.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS

Larval control strategies against the vectors of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa could be highly effective, complementary to adult control interventions, and should be prioritized for further development, evaluation and implementation as an integral part of Rolling Back Malaria.

Combating malaria in Africa

The spread of antimalarial drug resistance has major consequences for malaria control in tropical Africa. Here, the impact of chloroquine resistance on the burden of malaria is analyzed and its implications for the Roll Back Malaria initiative are examined. Malaria mortality has increased at least twofold during the past two decades. Combination therapy should be available for home treatment of young children. The potential toxicity of most antimalarials will require special surveillance programs. The main contribution to malaria control using methods to reduce the entomological inoculation rate is expected in areas with low or unstable transmission. Classic vector-control methods could potentially eliminate malaria in most urban areas and such programs deserve high priority.

Progress and challenges for malaria vaccines

Malaria causes much physical and economic hardship in tropical regions, particularly in communities where medical care is rudimentary. Should a vaccine be developed, it is the residents of these areas that stand to benefit the most. But the vaccine, which has been promised to be 'just round the corner' for many years, remains elusive. It is important to ask why this is so, when effective vaccines exist for many other infectious diseases. What are the reasons for the slow rate of progress, and what has been learned from the first clinical trials of candidate malaria vaccines? What are the remaining challenges, and what strategies can be pursued to address them?

Satellite imagery in the study and forecast of malaria

More than 30 years ago, human beings looked back from the Moon to see the magnificent spectacle of Earth-rise. The technology that put us into space has since been used to assess the damage we are doing to our natural environment and is now being harnessed to monitor and predict diseases through space and time. Satellite sensor data promise the development of early-warning systems for diseases such as malaria, which kills between 1 and 2 million people each year.

Limited recombination events in merozoite surface protein-1 alleles of Plasmodium falciparum on islands

Intragenic recombination is a principal mechanism for the generation of allelic variation in the merozoite surface protein-1 gene (Msp-1) of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. In the present study, linkage disequilibrium between the 5'- and 3'-polymorphic sites was analyzed to determine the frequency of recombination events in Msp-1 in parasite populations on four islands in Vanuatu, the southwestern Pacific, where malaria transmission is moderate and comparable to other mesoendemic areas. Of 141 isolates, whose 5'-haplotypes (Msp-1 blocks 2-6) were determined by PCR-based typing, 138 were successfully sequenced for the 3'-polymorphism (block 17). A total of four distinct 5'-haplotypes and three distinct 3'-sequence types were identified with apparently different frequency distribution among islands. The number of 5'-haplotypes in each island was one to four, far smaller than in other previously studied geographic areas (ten to 21). Associations between the 5'- and 3'-polymorphisms (here termed Msp-1 gene types) were subjected to the R(2) linkage disequilibrium test. The test revealed complete or very strong linkage disequilibrium in all four islands. Mixed infection was unusually rare (2.1%) and the mean number of Msp-1 alleles per person was nearly 1.0. The heterozygosity of the Msp-1 gene type calculated for each island (h=0.41-0.65) was significantly lower than that in other areas of comparable endemicity (h=0.81-0.89) (P<0.01). These results indicate that recombination events in Msp-1 would be extremely limited in Vanuatu, and stress that the frequency of recombination in Msp-1 is determined by not only the intensity of malaria transmission but the frequency of mixed clone infections, the mean number of clones per person and a repertoire of clones in a local area.

Are trials in New World monkeys on the critical path for blood-stage malaria vaccine development?

The development of malaria blood-stage vaccines is gathering momentum: there are several new funding initiatives, one multiantigen formulation is currently being tested and at least one other blood-stage vaccine is expected to begin trials in 2001. However, there is no consensus over the best way to select which form of an antigen to take into clinical testing. There is thus a danger that less-effective vaccines might be tested in the field in the order of their availability, rather than merit. Here, we argue that first proving efficacy in the New World monkey challenge model would accelerate development.