Measuring malaria endemicity from intense to interrupted transmission

Sampling Adult Populations of Anopheles Mosquitoes

For the control and elimination of malaria, information on the local vector dynamics is essential. This information provides guidance on appropriate and timely deployment of vector control tools and their subsequent success. The data on the dynamics of local mosquito populations can be collected using many different Anopheles sampling methods. Dependent on the objectives, resources, time, and local environment, different traps and methods can be chosen. This chapter describes the sampling of adult populations, focusing on the important preparatory stages and some of the widely used sampling methods. The trapping methods discussed in this chapter are the human landing catch, human-baited net trap, animal landing catch, animal-baited net trap, CDC miniature light trap, Biogents Suna trap, peripheral net collection, pyrethrum collection, exit/entry trap, and resting shelter. For optimal deployment in the field, a step-by-step description of the sampling methods is given.

Vector competence, vectorial capacity of Nyssorhynchus darlingi and the basic reproduction number of Plasmodium vivax in agricultural settlements in the Amazonian Region of Brazil

Background

Brazilian malaria control programmes successfully reduced the incidence and mortality rates from 2005 to 2016. Since 2017, increased malaria has been reported across the Amazon. Few field studies focus on the primary malaria vector in high to moderate endemic areas, Nyssorhynchus darlingi, as the key entomological component of malaria risk, and on the metrics of Plasmodium vivax propagation in Amazonian rural communities.

Methods

Human landing catch collections were carried out in 36 houses of 26 communities in five municipalities in the Brazilian states of Acre, Amazonas and Rondônia states, with API (> 30). In addition, data on the number of locally acquired symptomatic infections were employed in mathematical modelling analyses carried out to determine Ny. darlingi vector competence and vectorial capacity to P. vivax; and to calculate the basic reproduction number for P. vivax.

Results

Entomological indices and malaria metrics ranged among localities: prevalence of P. vivax infection in Ny. darlingi, from 0.243% in Mâncio Lima, Acre to 3.96% in Machadinho D’Oeste, Rondônia; daily human-biting rate per person from 23 ± 1.18 in Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre, to 66 ± 2.41 in Lábrea, Amazonas; vector competence from 0.00456 in São Gabriel da Cachoeira, Amazonas to 0.04764 in Mâncio Lima, Acre; vectorial capacity from 0.0836 in Mâncio Lima, to 1.5 in Machadinho D’Oeste. The estimated R₀ for P. vivax (PvR₀) was 3.3 in Mâncio Lima, 7.0 in Lábrea, 16.8 in Cruzeiro do Sul, 55.5 in São Gabriel da Cachoeira, and 58.7 in Machadinho D’Oeste. Correlation between P. vivax prevalence in Ny. darlingi and vector competence was non-linear whereas association between prevalence of P. vivax in mosquitoes, vectorial capacity and R₀ was linear and positive.

Conclusions

In spite of low vector competence of Ny. darlingi to P. vivax, parasite propagation in the human population is enhanced by the high human-biting rate, and relatively high vectorial capacity. The high PvR₀ values suggest hyperendemicity in Machadinho D’Oeste and São Gabriel da Cachoeira at levels similar to those found for P. falciparum in sub-Saharan Africa regions. Mass screening for parasite reservoirs, effective anti-malarial drugs and vector control interventions will be necessary to shrinking transmission in Amazonian rural communities, Brazil.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2753-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Nationwide school malaria parasitaemia survey in public primary schools, the United Republic of Tanzania

Background

A nationwide, school, malaria survey was implemented to assess the risk factors of malaria prevalence and bed net use among primary school children in mainland Tanzania. This allowed the mapping of malaria prevalence at council level and assessment of malaria risk factors among school children.

Methods

A cross-sectional, school, malaria parasitaemia survey was conducted in 25 regions, 166 councils and 357 schools in three phases: (1) August to September 2014; (2) May 2015; and, (3) October 2015. Children were tested for malaria parasites using rapid diagnostic tests and were interviewed about household information, parents’ education, bed net indicators as well as recent history of fever. Multilevel mixed effects logistic regression models were fitted to estimate odds ratios of risk factors for malaria infection and for bed net use while adjusting for school effect.

Results

In total, 49,113 children were interviewed and tested for malaria infection. The overall prevalence of malaria was 21.6%, ranging from < 0.1 to 53% among regions and from 0 to 76.4% among councils. The malaria prevalence was below 5% in 62 of the 166 councils and above 50% in 18 councils and between 5 and 50% in the other councils. The variation of malaria prevalence between schools was greatest in regions with a high mean prevalence, while the variation was marked by a few outlying schools in regions with a low mean prevalence. Overall, 70% of the children reported using mosquito nets, with the highest percentage observed among educated parents (80.7%), low land areas (82.7%) and those living in urban areas (82.2%).

Conclusions

The observed prevalence among school children showed marked variation at regional and sub-regional levels across the country. Findings of this survey are useful for updating the malaria epidemiological profile and for stratification of malaria transmission by region, council and age groups, which is essential for guiding resource allocation, evaluation and prioritization of malaria interventions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2601-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Intermittent Preventive Treatment (IPT): Its Role in Averting Disease-Induced Mortality in Children and in Promoting the Spread of Antimalarial Drug Resistance

We develop an age-structured ODE model to investigate the role of intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) in averting malaria-induced mortality in children, and its related cost in promoting the spread of antimalarial drug resistance. IPT, a malaria control strategy in which a full curative dose of an antimalarial medication is administered to vulnerable asymptomatic individuals at specified intervals, has been shown to reduce malaria transmission and deaths in children and pregnant women. However, it can also promote drug resistance spread. Our mathematical model is used to explore IPT effects on drug resistance and deaths averted in holoendemic malaria regions. The model includes drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains as well as human hosts and mosquitoes. The basic reproduction, and invasion reproduction numbers for both strains are derived. Numerical simulations show the individual and combined effects of IPT and treatment of symptomatic infections on the prevalence of both strains and the number of lives saved. Our results suggest that while IPT can indeed save lives, particularly in high transmission regions, certain combinations of drugs used for IPT and to treat symptomatic infection may result in more deaths when resistant parasite strains are circulating. Moreover, the half-lives of the treatment and IPT drugs used play an important role in the extent to which IPT may influence spread of the resistant strain. A sensitivity analysis indicates the model outcomes are most sensitive to the reduction factor of transmission for the resistant strain, rate of immunity loss, and the natural clearance rate of sensitive infections.

Molecular epidemiology and evolution of drug-resistant genes in the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum in southwestern Nigeria

Malaria is an age-old disease of human kind living in the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the globe, with Africa contributing the highest incidence of morbidity and mortality. Among many hurdles, evolution and spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites constitute major challenges to malaria control and elimination. Information on molecular epidemiology and pattern of evolution of genes conferring resistance to different antimalarials are needed to track the route of the spread of resistant parasites and also to inform if the drug-resistant genes are adapted in the population following the Darwinian model of evolution. In the present study, we have followed molecular methods to detect both the known and emerging mutations in three genes (Pfcrt, Pfdhfr and Pfdhps) of P. falciparum conferring resistance to chloroquine and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine from two different states (Edo: meso-endemic and Lagos: hypo-endemic) in southwestern Nigeria. High diversities in haplotypes and nucleotides in genes responsible for chloroquine (Pfcrt) and sulfadoxine (Pfdhps) resistance are recorded. About 96% of Pfdhfr and Pfdhps gene in both the meso- and hypo- endemic areas were mutant type, followed by 61% in Pfcrt gene. Many unique haplotypes of Pfdhps and Pfcrt were found to be segregated in these two populations. One particular mutant haplotype of Pfdhfr (AIRNI) was found to be in very high frequency in both Lagos and Edo. While the net haplotype diversity was highest in Pfdhps (0.81 in Lagos, 0.87 in Edo), followed by Pfcrt (0.69 in Lagos, 0.65 in Edo); highest number of haplotype was found in Pfdhps with 13 distinct haplotypes, followed by seven in Pfcrt and four in Pfdhfr gene. Moreover, detection of strong linkage among mutations of Pfcrt and Pfdhfr and feeble evidence for balancing selection in Pfdhps are indicative of evolutionary potential of mutation in genes responsible for drug resistance in Nigerian populations of P. falciparum.

Evaluation of loop-mediated isothermal amplification as a surveillance tool for malaria in reactive case detection moving towards elimination

Background

As malaria transmission decreases, the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic at any given time increases. This poses a challenge for diagnosis as routinely used rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) miss asymptomatic malaria cases with low parasite densities due to poor sensitivity. Yet, asymptomatic infections can contribute to onward transmission of malaria and therefore act as infectious reservoirs and perpetuate malaria transmission. This study compared the performance of RDTs to loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) in the diagnosis of malaria during reactive active case detection surveillance.

Methods

All reported malaria cases in the Engela Health District of Namibia were traced back to their place of residence and persons living within the four closest neighbouring houses to the index case (neighbourhood) were tested for malaria infection with RDTs and dried blood spots (DBS) were collected. LAMP and nested PCR (nPCR) were carried out on all RDTs and DBS. The same procedure was followed in randomly selected control neighbourhoods.

Results

Some 3151 individuals were tested by RDT, LAMP and nPCR. Sensitivity of RDTs and LAMP were 9.30 and 95.50%, respectively, and specificities were 99.27 and 99.92%, respectively, compared to nPCR. LAMP carried out on collected RDTs showed a sensitivity and specificity of 95.35 and 99.85% compared to nPCR carried out on DBS. There were 2 RDT samples that were negative by LAMP but the corresponding DBS samples were positive by PCR.

Conclusion

The study showed that LAMP had the equivalent performance as nPCR for the identification of Plasmodium falciparum infection. Given its relative simplicity to implement over more complex and time-consuming methods, such as PCR, LAMP is particularly useful in elimination settings where high sensitivity and ease of operation are important.

Reuse of malaria rapid diagnostic tests for amplicon deep sequencing to estimate Plasmodium falciparum transmission intensity in western Uganda

Molecular techniques are not routinely employed for malaria surveillance, while cross-sectional, community-based parasite surveys require significant resources. Here, we describe a novel use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) collected at a single facility as source material for sequencing to esimtate malaria transmission intensity across a relatively large catchment area. We extracted Plasmodium falciparum DNA from RDTs, then amplified and sequenced a region of the apical membrane antigen 1 (pfama1) using targeted amplicon deep sequencing. We determined the multiplicity of infection (MOI) for each sample and examined associations with demographic, clinical, and spatial factors. We successfully genotyped 223 of 287 (77.7%) of the samples. We demonstrated an inverse relationship between the MOI and elevation with individuals presenting from the highest elevation villages harboring infections approximately half as complex as those from the lowest (MOI 1.85 vs. 3.51, AOR 0.25, 95% CI 0.09-0.65, p = 0.004). This study demonstrates the feasibility and validity of using routinely-collected RDTs for molecular surveillance of malaria and has real-world utility, especially as the cost of high-throughpout sequencing continues to decline.

Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting

In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, R_c, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55–0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in R_c between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020.

Twenty one countries have been identified for malaria elimination by 2020 and their progress needs to be constantly evaluated. Here, the authors present a method that estimates individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space and use it to monitor elimination success in El Salvador between 2010 and 2016.

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

School-based malaria prevalence: informative systematic surveillance measure to assess epidemiological impact of malaria control interventions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Background

In southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, malaria transmission is stable with seasonal fluctuations. Different measurements can be used to monitor disease burden and estimate the performance of control programmes. Repeated school-based malaria prevalence surveys (SMPS) were conducted from 2007 to 2014 to generate up-to-date surveillance data and evaluate the impact of an integrated vector control programme.

Methods

Biannual SMPS used a stratified, randomized and proportional sampling method. Schools were randomly selected from the entire pool of facilities within each Health Area (HA). Subsequently, school-children from 6 to 12 years of age were randomly selected in a proportional manner. Initial point-of-care malaria diagnosis was made using a rapid detection test. A matching stained blood film was later examined by expert microscopy and used in the final analysis. Data was stratified and analysed based on age, survey time and location.

Results

The baseline SMPS (pre-control in 2007) prevalence was approximately 77%. From 2009 to 2014, 11,628 school-children were randomly screened. The mean age was 8.7 years with a near equal sex ratio. After exclusion, analysis of 10,493 students showed an overall malaria prevalence ratio of 1.92 in rural compared to urbanized areas. The distribution of Plasmodium falciparum malaria was significantly different between rural and urban HAs and between end of wet season and end of dry season surveys. The combined prevalence of single P. falciparum, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale infections were 29.9, 1.8 and 0.3% of those examined, respectively. Only 1.8% were mixed Plasmodium species infections. From all microscopically detected infections (3545 of 10,493 samples examined), P. falciparum represented 88.5%, followed by P. malariae (5.4%) and P. ovale (0.8%). Cases with multiple species represented 5.3% of patent infections. Malaria prevalence was independent of age and gender. Control programme performance contributed to a significant decrease in mean P. falciparum infection density in urban compared to rural locations. Some rural areas remained highly refractory to control measures (insecticide-treated bed nets, periodic indoor residual spraying).

Conclusion

The SMPS is a useful longitudinal measurement for estimating population malaria prevalence and demonstrating disease burden and impact of control interventions. SMPS can identify refractory areas of transmission and thus prioritize control strategies accordingly.

Mapping transmission foci to eliminate malaria in the People's Republic of China, 2010-2015: a retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

China has initiated the National Malaria Elimination Action Plan, which aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, the transmission of malaria occurs sporadically or in distinct foci, which greatly hampers progress toward elimination in China and other countries. The object of this study was to foci categorization and evaluates whether the response met the requirements issued by the nation or WHO.

METHODS

Residual transmissions were investigated and located with fine spatial resolution mapping from parasitological confirmed malaria cases by use of routine national surveillance data. The "1-3-7" timeframes were monitored for each focus between 2012 and 2015. Each focus was identified, and the application of appropriate measures was evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 5996 indigenous cases were recorded between 2010 and 2015; during this period, the number of cases declined by 99.1% (2010, n = 4262; 2015, n = 39). Most indigenous cases (92.5%) were reported in Anhui (n = 2326), Yunnan (n = 1373), Henan (n = 930), Hubei (n = 459), and Guizhou (n = 458). The temporal distribution showed that the indigenous malaria cases were clustered during the period of May to August. A total of 320 foci were carefully investigated and analyzed: 24 were active foci; 72, residual non-active foci; and 224 cleared-up foci. For the foci response evaluation, all the active foci were investigated within 7 days, while 80.2% of the residual non-active foci were responded within 7 days. In addition, reactive case detection (RACD) was carried out with 92.9% of the active foci and vector investigation carried out with 75%. For residual non-active foci, RACD was carried out with 83.2% and vector investigation with 78.2% of the foci.

CONCLUSIONS

This study used nationwide data to categorize foci in China and evaluate the response of these areas during the control and elimination phases. Our approach stratifies future control responses by identifying those locations where the elimination of endemic transmission is needed, such as in the counties at the China-Myanmar border and in Tibet. In addition, this study will help local CDC staff to reassess their needs and responses against different types of foci during the elimination and post-elimination phases.

Mosquito net coverage in years between mass distributions: a case study of Tanzania, 2013

Background

The Government of Tanzania is the main source of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) for its population. Mosquito nets (treated and untreated) are also available in the commercial market. To sustain investments and health gains in the fight against malaria, it is important for the National Malaria Control Programme to monitor LLIN coverage especially in the years between mass distributions and to understand what households do if their free nets are deemed unusable. The aim of this paper was to assess standard LLIN indicators by wealth status in Tanzania in 2013, 2 years after the last mass campaign in 2011, and extend the analysis to untreated nets (UTNs) to investigate how households adapt when nets are not continuously distributed.

Methods

Between October–December 2013, a household survey was conducted in 3398 households in eight districts in Tanzania. Using the Roll Back Malaria indicators, the study analysed: (1) household net ownership; (2) access to nets; (3) population net use and (4) net use:access ratio. Outcomes were calculated for LLINs and UTNs. Results were analysed by socio-economic quintiles and by district.

Results

Only three of the eight districts had household LLIN ownership of more than 80%. In 2013, less than a quarter of the households had one LLIN for every two people and only half of the population had access to an LLIN. Only the wealthier quintiles increased their net ownership and access to levels above 80% through the addition of UTNs. Overall net use of the population was low (LLINs: 32.8%; UTNs: 9.5%) and net use:access ratio was below target level (LLINs: 0.66; UTN: 0.50). Both measures varied significantly by district.

Conclusions

Two years after the last mass campaign, the percentage of households or population with access to LLINs was low. These findings indicate the average rate at which households in Tanzania lose their nets is higher than the rate at which they acquire new nets. The wealthiest households topped up their household net ownership with UTNs. Efforts to make LLINs available through commercial markets should be promoted, so those who can afford to buy nets purchase LLINs rather than UTNs. Net use was low around 40% and mostly explained by lack of access to nets. However, the use:access ratio was poor in Mbozi and Kahama districts warranting further investigations to understand other barriers to net use.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2247-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Using non-exceedance probabilities of policy-relevant malaria prevalence thresholds to identify areas of low transmission in Somalia

Background

Countries planning malaria elimination must adapt from sustaining universal control to targeted intervention and surveillance. Decisions to make this transition require interpretable information, including malaria parasite survey data. As transmission declines, observed parasite prevalence becomes highly heterogeneous with most communities reporting estimates close to zero. Absolute estimates of prevalence become hard to interpret as a measure of transmission intensity and suitable statistical methods are required to handle uncertainty of area-wide predictions that are programmatically relevant.

Methods

A spatio-temporal geostatistical binomial model for Plasmodium falciparum prevalence (PfPR) was developed using data from cross-sectional surveys conducted in Somalia in 2005, 2007–2011 and 2014. The fitted model was then used to generate maps of non-exceedance probabilities, i.e. the predictive probability that the region-wide population-weighted average PfPR for children between 2 and 10 years (PfPR_2–10) lies below 1 and 5%. A comparison was carried out with the decision-making outcomes from those of standard approaches that ignore uncertainty in prevalence estimates.

Results

By 2010, most regions in Somalia were at least 70% likely to be below 5% PfPR_2–10 and, by 2014, 17 regions were below 5% PfPR_2–10 with a probability greater than 90%. Larger uncertainty is observed using a threshold of 1%. By 2011, only two regions were more than 90% likely of being < 1% PfPR_2–10 and, by 2014, only three regions showed such low level of uncertainty. The use of non-exceedance probabilities indicated that there was weak evidence to classify 10 out of the 18 regions as < 1% in 2014, when a greater than 90% non-exceedance probability was required.

Conclusion

Unlike standard approaches, non-exceedance probabilities of spatially modelled PfPR_2–10 allow to quantify uncertainty of prevalence estimates in relation to policy relevant intervention thresholds, providing programmatically relevant metrics to make decisions on transitioning from sustained malaria control to strategies that encompass methods of malaria elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2238-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact Evaluation of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention under Routine Program Implementation: A Quasi-Experimental Study in Burkina Faso

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) for children < 5 is a strategy that is gaining popularity in West African countries. Although its efficacy to reduce malaria incidence has been demonstrated in trials, the effects of SMC implemented in routine program conditions, outside of experimental contexts, are unknown. In 2014 and 2015, a survey was conducted in 1,311 households located in Kaya District (Burkina Faso) where SMC had been recently introduced. All children < 72 months were tested for malaria and anemia. A pre–post study with control group was designed to measure SMC impact during high transmission season. A difference-in-differences approach was coupled in the analysis with propensity score weighting to control for observable and time-invariant nonobservable confounding factors. SMC reduced the parasitemia point and period prevalence by 3.3 and 24% points, respectively; this translated into protective effects of 51% and 62%. SMC also reduced the likelihood of having moderate to severe anemia by 32%, and history of recent fever by 46%. Self-reported coverage for children at the first cycle was 83%. The SMC program was successfully added to a package of interventions already in place. To our knowledge, with prevalence < 10% during the peak of the transmission season, this is the first time that malaria can be reported as hypo-endemic in a sub-Sahelian setting in Burkina Faso. SMC has great potential, and along with other interventions, it could contribute to approaching the threshold where elimination strategies will be envisioned in Burkina Faso.

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions

There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

Longitudinal estimation of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in relation to malaria prevention measures in six sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium falciparum prevalence (PfPR) is a widely used metric for assessing malaria transmission intensity. This study was carried out concurrently with the RTS,S/AS01 candidate malaria vaccine Phase III trial and estimated PfPR over ≤ 4 standardized cross-sectional surveys.

METHODS

This epidemiology study (NCT01190202) was conducted in 8 sites from 6 countries (Burkina Faso, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, and Tanzania), between March 2011 and December 2013. Participants were enrolled in a 2:1:1 ratio according to age category: 6 months-4 years, 5-19 years, and ≥ 20 years, respectively, per year and per centre. All sites carried out surveys 1-3 while survey 4 was conducted only in 3 sites. Surveys were usually performed during the peak malaria parasite transmission season, in one home visit, when medical history and malaria risk factors/prevention measures were collected, and a blood sample taken for rapid diagnostic test, microscopy, and haemoglobin measurement. PfPR was estimated by site and age category.

RESULTS

Overall, 6401 (survey 1), 6411 (survey 2), 6400 (survey 3), and 2399 (survey 4) individuals were included in the analyses. In the 6 months-4 years age group, the lowest prevalence (assessed using microscopy) was observed in 2 Tanzanian centres (4.6% for Korogwe and 9.95% for Bagamoyo) and Lambaréné, Gabon (6.0%), while the highest PfPR was recorded for Nanoro, Burkina Faso (52.5%). PfPR significantly decreased over the 3 years in Agogo (Ghana), Kombewa (Kenya), Lilongwe (Malawi), and Bagamoyo (Tanzania), and a trend for increased PfPR was observed over the 4 surveys for Kintampo, Ghana. Over the 4 surveys, for all sites, PfPR was predominantly higher in the 5-19 years group than in the other age categories. Occurrence of fever and anaemia was associated with high P. falciparum parasitaemia. Univariate analyses showed a significant association of anti-malarial treatment in 4 surveys (odds ratios [ORs]: 0.52, 0.52, 0.68, 0.41) and bed net use in 2 surveys (ORs: 0.63, 0.68, 1.03, 1.78) with lower risk of malaria infection.

CONCLUSION

Local PfPR differed substantially between sites and age groups. In children 6 months-4 years old, a significant decrease in prevalence over the 3 years was observed in 4 out of the 8 study sites. Trial registration Clinical Trials.gov identifier: NCT01190202:NCT. GSK Study ID numbers: 114001.

Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination

BACKGROUND

Increasing coverage of malaria vector control interventions globally has led to significant reductions in disease burden. However due to its high recurrent cost, there is a need to determine if and when vector control can be safely scaled back after transmission has been reduced.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology was simulated to determine the impact of scaling back vector control on transmission and disease. A regression analysis of simulation results was conducted to derive predicted probabilities of resurgence, severity of resurgence and time to resurgence under various settings. Results indicate that, in the absence of secular changes in transmission, there are few scenarios where vector control can be removed without high expectation of resurgence. These, potentially safe, scenarios are characterized by low historic entomological inoculation rates, successful vector control programmes that achieve elimination or near elimination, and effective surveillance systems with high coverage and effective treatment of malaria cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Programmes and funding agencies considering scaling back or withdrawing vector control from previously malaria endemic areas need to first carefully consider current receptivity and other available interventions in a risk assessment. Surveillance for resurgence needs to be continuously conducted over a long period of time in order to ensure a rapid response should vector control be withdrawn.

Spatiotemporal Modeling for Fine-Scale Maps of Regional Malaria Endemicity and Its Implications for Transitional Complexities in a Routine Surveillance Network in Western Cambodia

Due to the associated and substantial efforts of many stakeholders involved in malaria containment, the disease burden of malaria has dramatically decreased in many malaria-endemic countries in recent years. Some decades after the past efforts of the global malaria eradication program, malaria elimination has again featured on the global health agenda. While risk distribution modeling and a mapping approach are effective tools to assist with the efficient allocation of limited health-care resources, these methods need some adjustment and reexamination in accordance with changes occurring in relation to malaria elimination. Limited available data, fine-scale data inaccessibility (for example, household or individual case data), and the lack of reliable data due to inefficiencies within the routine surveillance system, make it difficult to create reliable risk maps for decision-makers or health-care practitioners in the field. Furthermore, the risk of malaria may dynamically change due to various factors such as the progress of containment interventions and environmental changes. To address the complex and dynamic nature of situations in low-to-moderate malaria transmission settings, we built a spatiotemporal model of a standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) of malaria incidence, calculated through annual parasite incidence, using routinely reported surveillance data in combination with environmental indices such as remote sensing data, and the non-environmental regional containment status, to create fine-scale risk maps. A hierarchical Bayesian frame was employed to fit the transitioning malaria risk data onto the map. The model was set to estimate the SMRs of every study location at specific time intervals within its uncertainty range. Using the spatial interpolation of estimated SMRs at village level, we created fine-scale maps of two provinces in western Cambodia at specific time intervals. The maps presented different patterns of malaria risk distribution at specific time intervals. Moreover, the visualized weights estimated using the risk model, and the structure of the routine surveillance network, represent the transitional complexities emerging from ever-changing regional endemic situations.

Naturally acquired antibody response to Plasmodium falciparum describes heterogeneity in transmission on islands in Lake Victoria

As markers of exposure anti-malaria antibody responses can help characterise heterogeneity in malaria transmission. In the present study antibody responses to Plasmodium falciparum AMA-1, MSP-1₁₉ and CSP were measured with the aim to describe transmission patterns in meso-endemic settings in Lake Victoria. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in Lake Victoria in January and August 2012. The study area comprised of three settings: mainland (Ungoye), large island (Mfangano) and small islands (Takawiri, Kibuogi, Ngodhe). Individuals provided a finger-blood sample to assess malaria infection by microscopy and PCR. Antibody response to P. falciparum was determined in 4,112 individuals by ELISA using eluted dried blood from filter paper. The overall seroprevalence was 64.0% for AMA-1, 39.5% for MSP-1₁₉, and 12.9% for CSP. Between settings, seroprevalences for merozoite antigens were similar between Ungoye and Mfangano, but higher when compared to the small islands. For AMA-1, the seroconversion rates (SCRs) ranged from 0.121 (Ngodhe) to 0.202 (Ungoye), and were strongly correlated to parasite prevalence. We observed heterogeneity in serological indices across study sites in Lake Victoria. These data suggest that AMA-1 and MSP-1₁₉ sero-epidemiological analysis may provide further evidence in assessing variation in malaria exposure and evaluating malaria control efforts in high endemic area.

Surveillance in easy to access population subgroups as a tool for evaluating malaria control progress: A systematic review

Background

The need for surveillance systems generating targeted, data-driven, responsive control efforts to accelerate and sustain malaria transmission reduction has been emphasized by programme managers, policy makers and scientists. Surveillance using easy-to-access population subgroups (EAGs) may result in considerable cost saving compared to household surveys as the identification and selection of individuals to be surveyed is simplified, fewer personnel are needed, and logistics are simpler. We reviewed available literature on the validation of estimates of key indicators of malaria control progress derived from EAGs, and describe the options to deal with the context specific bias that may occur.

Methods

A literature search was conducted of all documents reporting validation of estimates of malaria control indicators from EAG surveys before the 31^st of December 2016. Additional records were identified through cross-reference from selected records, other applicable policy documents and grey literature. After removal of duplicates, 13, 180 abstracts were evaluated and 2,653 eligible abstracts were identified mentioning surveillance in EAGs, of which 29 full text articles were selected for detailed review. The nine articles selected for systematic review compared estimates from health facility and school surveys with those of a contemporaneous sample of the same population in the same geographic area.

Results

Review of the available literature on EAGs suitable for surveillance of malaria control progress revealed that little effort has been made to explore the potential approach and settings for use of EAGs; and that there was wide variation in the precision of estimates of control progress between and within studies, particularly for estimates of control intervention coverage. Only one of the studies evaluated the geospatial representativeness of EAG samples, or carried out geospatial analyses to assess or control for lack of geospatial representativeness. Two studies attempted to measure the degree of bias or improve the precision of estimates by controlling for bias in a multivariate analysis; and this was only successful in one study. The observed variability in accuracy of estimates is likely to be caused by selection and/or information bias due to the inherent nature of EAGs. The reviewed studies provided insight into the design and analytical approaches that could be used to limit bias.

Conclusion

The utility EAGs for routine surveillance of progress in malaria control at the district or sub-district programmatic level will be driven by several factors including whether serial point estimates to measure transmission reduction or more precise geospatial distribution to track ‘hot-spots’ is required, the acceptable degree of precision, the target population, and the resources available for surveillance. The opportunities offered by novel geostatistical analyses and hybrid sampling frames to overcome bias justify a renewed exploration of use of EAGs for malaria monitoring and evaluation.

Effect of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis on malaria occurrence among HIV-infected adults in West Africa: the MALHIV Study

INTRODUCTION

Cotrimoxazole (CTX) should be given to all HIV-infected adults with mild or severe HIV-disease or those with CD4 counts below 350/mm³ according to 2006 WHO guidelines. We assessed the impact of CTX prophylaxis on the risk of malaria episodes in HIV-1-infected adults from four West African countries with different patterns of malaria transmission.

METHOD

Multicentric cohort study, conducted between September 2007 and March 2010 in four West African cities. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve HIV-infected adults started CTX at enrolment (CTX group) if they had CD4 < 350 cells/mm³ or were at WHO clinical stage ≥2. For patients who did not start CTX at enrolment (non-CTX group) and started CTX afterwards, follow-up was censored at CTX initiation. We used Cox's proportional hazard model to compare the risk of malaria between CTX groups.

RESULTS

A total of 514 participants (median CD4 count 238 cells/mm³ ) were followed for a median of 15 months. At enrolment, 347 started CTX, and 261 started ART. During the follow-up, 28 started CTX. The incidence of malaria was 8.7/100 PY (95%CI 6.3-11.5) overall, 5.2/100 PY (95%CI 3.1-8.3) in the CTX group and 15.5/100 PY (95%CI 10.3-22.1) in the non-CTX group. In multivariate analysis, CTX led to a 69% reduction in the risk of malaria (aHR 0.31, 95%CI 0.10-0.90).

CONCLUSION

Patients in the CTX group had an adjusted risk of malaria three times lower than those in the non-CTX group. The prolonged large-scale use of CTX did not blunt the efficacy of CTX to prevent malaria in this region.

The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years

Background

Malaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas.

Methods

The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates.

Results

Of 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death.

Conclusions

Malaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.

Chloroquine efficacy for Plasmodium vivax in Myanmar in populations with high genetic diversity and moderate parasite gene flow

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium vivax malaria remains a major public health burden in Myanmar. Resistance to chloroquine (CQ), the first-line treatment for P. vivax, has been reported in the country and has potential to undermine local control efforts.

METHODS

Patients over 6 years of age with uncomplicated P. vivax mono-infection were enrolled into clinical efficacy studies in Myawaddy in 2014 and Kawthoung in 2012. Study participants received a standard dose of CQ (25 mg/kg over 3 days) followed by weekly review until day 28. Pvmdr1 copy number (CN) and microsatellite diversity were assessed on samples from the patients enrolled in the clinical study and additional cross-sectional surveys undertaken in Myawaddy and Shwegyin in 2012.

RESULTS

A total of 85 patients were enrolled in the CQ clinical studies, 25 in Myawaddy and 60 in Kawthoung. One patient in Myawaddy (1.2%) had an early treatment failure and two patients (2.3%) in Kawthoung presented with late treatment failures on day 28. The day 28 efficacy was 92.0% (95% CI 71.6-97.9) in Myawaddy and 98.3% (95% CI 88.7-99.8) in Kawthoung. By day 2, 92.2% (23/25) in Myawaddy and 85.0% (51/60) in Kawthoung were aparasitaemic. Genotyping and pvmdr1 CN assessment was undertaken on 43, 52 and 46 clinical isolates from Myawaddy, Kawthoung and Shwegyin respectively. Pvmdr1 amplification was observed in 3.2% (1/31) of isolates in Myawaddy, 0% (0/49) in Kawthoung and 2.5% (1/40) in Shwegyin. Diversity was high in all sites (H _E 0.855-0.876), with low inter-population differentiation (F _ST 0.016-0.026, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment failures after chloroquine were observed following chloroquine monotherapy, with pvmdr1 amplification present in both Myawaddy and Shwegyin. The results emphasize the importance of ongoing P. vivax drug resistance surveillance in Myanmar, particularly given the potential connectivity between parasite population at different sites.

The Anopheles gambiae 2La chromosome inversion is associated with susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum in Africa

Chromosome inversions suppress genetic recombination and establish co-adapted gene complexes, or supergenes. The 2La inversion is a widespread polymorphism in the Anopheles gambiae species complex, the major African mosquito vectors of human malaria. Here we show that alleles of the 2La inversion are associated with natural malaria infection levels in wild-captured vectors from West and East Africa. Mosquitoes carrying the more-susceptible allele (2L+^a) are also behaviorally less likely to be found inside houses. Vector control tools that target indoor-resting mosquitoes, such as bednets and insecticides, are currently the cornerstone of malaria control in Africa. Populations with high levels of the 2L+^a allele may form reservoirs of persistent outdoor malaria transmission requiring novel measures for surveillance and control. The 2La inversion is a major and previously unappreciated component of the natural malaria transmission system in Africa, influencing both malaria susceptibility and vector behavior.

Perennial transmission of malaria in the low altitude areas of Baringo County, Kenya

BACKGROUND

Malaria causes the greatest public health burden in sub-Saharan Africa where high mortality occurs mainly in children under 5 years of age. Traditionally, malaria has been reported mainly in the lowlands endemic regions of western Kenya, while the highlands of the Rift Valley have been relatively free except for the sporadic epidemics in some areas. Baringo County is located in the Kenyan highlands. The county generally experiences seasonal transmission of malaria. A few hotspots which experience continuous malaria transmission in the county do however exist. The objective of this study was to assess malaria infection status and identify areas with continuous transmissions with a view to mapping out probable transmission hot spots useful in mounting focused interventions within the county.

METHODS

Systematic sampling was employed to identify 1668 primary school pupils from fifteen primary schools located in 4 ecological zones (lowland, midland, highland and riverine) of three sub-counties of Baringo. Finger prick blood sampling was done every 4 months (during the dry season in February/March, after the long rains in June/July and short rains in November 2015). Malaria occurrence was tested using rapid diagnostic test kit (CareStart HRP-2 Pf). Microscopic examination was done on all RDT positive and 10% of negative cases.

RESULTS

A total of 268 (16.1%), out of 1668 pupils tested positive for Plasmodium falciparum by RDT; 78% had a single episode, 16.8% had 2 episodes, 4.9% had 3 episodes and 0.4% had 4 episodes. The riverine zone had the highest malaria cases (23.2%) followed by lowlands (0.9%). No malaria cases were detected in the midland zone while highland zone recorded only few cases during the third follow up. Up to 10.7% of malaria cases were reported in the dry season, 2.9% during the long rains and 5.7% in short rains season.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria infection was prevalent in Baringo County and was mainly restricted to the riverine zone where transmission is continuous throughout the year. High malaria prevalence occurred in the dry season compared to the wet season. Even though malaria transmission is relatively low compared to endemic regions of Kenya, there is a need for continued monitoring of transmission dynamics under changing climatic conditions as well as establishing expanded malaria control strategies especially within the riverine zone which would include an integrated mosquito control and chemotherapy for infected individuals.

Fast and robust single PCR for Plasmodium sporozoite detection in mosquitoes using the cytochrome oxidase I gene

Background

Molecular tools for detecting malaria-infected mosquitoes with improved practicality, sensitivity and specificity, and high-throughput are required. A common PCR technique used to detect mosquitoes infected with Plasmodium spp. is a nested PCR assay based on the 18s-rRNA gene. However, this technique has several technical limitations, is laborious and time consuming.

Methods

In this study, a PCR-based on the Plasmodium cytochrome oxidase I (COX-I) gene was compared with the 18s-rRNA nested PCR using serial dilutions (330–0.0012 pg) of DNA from Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium knowlesi and with DNA from 48 positive and negative Kenyan mosquitoes (previously detected by using both ELISA and PCR). This assay for Plasmodium spp. DNA detection using the fast COX-I PCR assay was then performed individually on 2122 field collected mosquitoes (from the Solomon Islands) in which DNA was extracted from head and thorax.

Results

The fast COX-I PCR assay took 1 h to run and consistently detected as low as to 0.043 pg of parasite DNA (equivalent to two parasites) in a single PCR, while analyses with the 18s-rRNA nested PCR required 4 h to complete with a consistent detection threshold of 1.5 pg of DNA. Both assays produced concordant results when applied to the 48 Kenyan control samples with known Plasmodium spp. infection status. The fast COX-I PCR identified 23/2122 Plasmodium-infected mosquitoes from the Solomon Islands.

Conclusions

This new COX-I PCR adapted for a single PCR reaction is a faster, simpler, cheaper, more sensitive technique amenable to high-throughput analyses for Plasmodium DNA detection in mosquitoes and is comparable to the 18s-rRNA nested PCR. The improved sensitivity seen with the fast COX-I PCR will improve the accuracy of mosquito infection rate determination.

Rapid reduction of malaria following introduction of vector control interventions in Tororo District, Uganda: a descriptive study

BACKGROUND

In 2012, Tororo District had the highest malaria burden in Uganda with community Plasmodium prevalence of 48%. To control malaria in the district, the Ministry of Health introduced universal distribution of long lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in 2013 and added indoor residual spraying (IRS) in 2014. This study assessed malaria incidence, test positivity rates and outpatient (OPD) attendance due to malaria before and after vector control interventions.

METHODS

This study was based on analysis of Health Management Information System (HMIS) secondary malaria surveillance data of 2,727,850 patient records in OPD registers of 61 health facilities from 2012 to 2015. The analysis estimated monthly malaria incidence for the entire population and also separately for <5- and ≥5-year-olds before and after introduction of vector control interventions; determined laboratory test positivity rates and annual percentage of malaria cases in OPD. Chi square for trends was used to analyse annual change in malaria incidence and logistic regression for monthly reduction.

RESULTS

Following universal LLINs coverage, the annual mean monthly malaria incidence fell from 95 cases in 2013 to 76 cases per 1000 in 2014 with no significant monthly reduction (OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.96-1.01, P = 0.37). Among children <5 years, the malaria incidence reduced from 130 to 100 cases per 1000 (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, P = 0.08) when LLINs were used alone in 2014, but declined to 45 per 1000 in 2015 when IRS was combined with LLINs (OR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.996, P < 0.0001). Among individuals aged ≥5 years, mean monthly malaria incidence reduced from 59 to 52 cases per 1000 (OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.97-1.02, P = 0.8) when LLINs were used alone in 2014, but reduced significantly to 25 per 1000 in 2015 (OR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94, P < 0.0001). Malaria test positivity rate reduced from 57% in 2013 to 30% (Chi = 15, P < 0.0001) in 2015. Slide positivity rate reduced from 45% in 2013 to 21% in 2015 (P = 0.004) while RDT positivity declined from 69 to 40%.

CONCLUSIONS

A rapid reduction in malaria incidence was observed in Tororo District following the introduction of IRS in addition to LLINs. There was no significant reduction in malaria incidence following universal distribution of LLINs to communities before introduction of IRS.

Distinct parasite populations infect individuals identified through passive and active case detection in a region of declining malaria transmission in southern Zambia

BACKGROUND

Substantial reductions in the burden of malaria have been documented in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, with elimination strategies and goals being formulated in some regions. Within this context, understanding the epidemiology of low-level malaria transmission is crucial to achieving and sustaining elimination. A 24 single-nucleotide-polymorphism Plasmodium falciparum molecular barcode was used to characterize parasite populations from infected individuals identified through passive and active case detection in an area approaching malaria elimination in southern Zambia.

METHODS

The study was conducted in the catchment area of Macha Hospital in Choma District, Southern Province, Zambia, where the parasite prevalence declined over the past decade, from 9.2% in 2008 to less than 1% in 2013. Parasite haplotypes from actively detected, P. falciparum-infected participants enrolled in a serial cross-sectional, community-based cohort study from 2008 to 2013 and from passively detected, P. falciparum-infected individuals enrolled at five rural health centres from 2012 to 2015 were compared. Changes in P. falciparum genetic relatedness, diversity and complexity were analysed as malaria transmission declined.

RESULTS

Actively detected cases identified in the community were most commonly rapid diagnostic test negative, asymptomatic and had submicroscopic parasitaemia. Phylogenetic reconstruction using concatenated 24 SNP barcode revealed a separation of parasite haplotypes from passively and actively detected infections, consistent with two genetically distinct parasite populations. For passively detected infections identified at health centres, the proportion of detectable polyclonal infections was consistently low in all seasons, in contrast with actively detected infections in which the proportion of polyclonal infections was high. The mean genetic divergence for passively detected infections was 34.5% for the 2012-2013 transmission season, 37.8% for the 2013-2014 season, and 30.8% for the 2014-2015 season. The mean genetic divergence for actively detected infections was 22.3% in the 2008 season and 29.0% in the 2008-2009 season and 9.9% across the 2012-2014 seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct parasite populations were identified among infected individuals identified through active and passive surveillance, suggesting that infected individuals detected through active surveillance may not have contributed substantially to ongoing transmission. As parasite prevalence and diversity within these individuals declined, resource-intensive efforts to identify the chronically infected reservoir may not be necessary to eliminate malaria in this setting.

Malaria risk in young male travellers but local transmission persists: a case-control study in low transmission Namibia

Background

A key component of malaria elimination campaigns is the identification and targeting of high risk populations. To characterize high risk populations in north central Namibia, a prospective health facility-based case–control study was conducted from December 2012–July 2014. Cases (n = 107) were all patients presenting to any of the 46 health clinics located in the study districts with a confirmed Plasmodium infection by multi-species rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Population controls (n = 679) for each district were RDT negative individuals residing within a household that was randomly selected from a census listing using a two-stage sampling procedure. Demographic, travel, socio-economic, behavioural, climate and vegetation data were also collected. Spatial patterns of malaria risk were analysed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for malaria.

Results

Malaria risk was observed to cluster along the border with Angola, and travel patterns among cases were comparatively restricted to northern Namibia and Angola. Travel to Angola was associated with excessive risk of malaria in males (OR 43.58 95% CI 2.12–896), but there was no corresponding risk associated with travel by females. This is the first study to reveal that gender can modify the effect of travel on risk of malaria. Amongst non-travellers, male gender was also associated with a higher risk of malaria compared with females (OR 1.95 95% CI 1.25–3.04). Other strong risk factors were sleeping away from the household the previous night, lower socioeconomic status, living in an area with moderate vegetation around their house, experiencing moderate rainfall in the month prior to diagnosis and living <15 km from the Angolan border.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the critical need to target malaria interventions to young male travellers, who have a disproportionate risk of malaria in northern Namibia, to coordinate cross-border regional malaria prevention initiatives and to scale up coverage of prevention measures such as indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticide nets in high risk areas if malaria elimination is to be realized.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1719-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effectiveness of a serological tool to predict malaria transmission intensity in an elimination setting

Background

Sri Lanka achieved the WHO certificate as a malaria free country in September 2016, thus monitoring of malaria transmission using sensitive and effective tools is an important need. Use of age-specific antibody prevalence as a serological tool to predict transmission intensity is proven to be a cost effective and reliable method under elimination settings. This paper discusses the correlation of four anti-malarial antibodies against vivax and falciparum malaria with the declining transmission intensities in two previously high malaria endemic districts i.e. Kurunegala and Moneragala of Sri Lanka.

Methods

Sera was collected from 1,186 individuals from the two districts and were subjected to standard ELISA together with control sera from non-immune individuals to obtain Optical Density (OD) values for four anti-malarial antibodies i.e. anti-MSP1 and anti-AMA1 for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. The sero-positive samples were determined as mean OD + 3SD of the negative controls. The sero-prevalence was analyzed against the demographic characteristics of the population. A simple reversible catalytic model was fitted into sero-prevalence data to predict the sero-conversion and sero-reversion rates.

Results

Over 60% of the population was sero-positive for one or more antibodies except young children (<10 years). The sero-prevalence was zero in young children and very low in young adults when compared to the older age groups. The model developed for falciparum malaria that assumed the presence of a change in transmission was not significant in the Kurunegala district although significant reduction in transmission was observed when the model was used for P. vivax antibody data in that district. In Moneragala district however, all the serological markers indicated a change in transmission that has occurred approximately 15 years ago.

Conclusions

Assessment of MSP1 and AMA1 anti-malarial antibodies of P. vivax and P. falciparum proved to be useful indicators in predicting transmission under elimination settings as prevailed in Sri Lanka. The sero-conversion rates for the two districts studied are shown to be very low or zero indicating the absence of active and/or hidden transmission confirming a “true” state of elimination at least, in the two study districts in Sri Lanka.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2164-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Location, location, location: environmental factors better predict malaria-positive individuals during reactive case detection than index case demographics in Southern Province, Zambia

Background

Decreasing malaria transmission leads to increasing heterogeneity with increased risk in both hot spots (locations) and hot pops (certain demographics). In Southern Province, Zambia, reactive case detection has formed a part of malaria surveillance and elimination efforts since 2011. Various factors may be associated with finding malaria infections during case investigations, including the demographics of the incident case and environmental characteristics of the location of the incident case.

Methods

Community health worker registries were used to determine what factors were associated with finding a malaria infection during reactive case detection.

Results

Location was a more powerful predictor of finding malaria infections during case investigations than the demographics of the incident case. After accounting for environmental characteristics, no demographics around the incident case were associated with finding malaria infections during case investigations. Various time-invariant measures of the environment, such as median enhanced vegetation index, the topographic position index, the convergence index, and the topographical wetness index, were all associated as expected with increased probability of finding a malaria infection during case investigations.

Conclusions

These results suggest that targeting the locations highly at risk of malaria transmission is of importance in elimination settings.

Principles of Infectious Diseases: Transmission, Diagnosis, Prevention, and Control

Infectious disease control and prevention relies on a thorough understanding of the factors determining transmission. This article summarizes the fundamental principles of infectious disease transmission while highlighting many of the agent, host, and environmental determinants of these diseases that are of particular import to public health professionals. Basic principles of infectious disease diagnosis, control, and prevention are also reviewed.

Malaria Hyperendemicity and Risk for Artemisinin Resistance among Illegal Gold Miners, French Guiana

To assess the prevalence of malaria among illegal gold miners in the French Guiana rainforest, we screened 205 miners during May-June 2014. Malaria prevalence was 48.3%; 48.5% of cases were asymptomatic. Patients reported self-medication with artemisinin-based combination therapy. Risk for emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance among gold miners in the rainforest is high.

Malaria in HIV-Infected Children Receiving HIV Protease-Inhibitor- Compared with Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor-Based Antiretroviral Therapy, IMPAACT P1068s, Substudy to P1060

Background

HIV and malaria geographically overlap. HIV protease inhibitors kill malaria parasites in vitro and in vivo, but further evaluation in clinical studies is needed.

Methods

Thirty-one children from Malawi aged 4–62 months were followed every 3 months and at intercurrent illness visits for ≤47 months (September 2009-December 2011). We compared malaria parasite carriage by blood smear microscopy (BS) and confirmed clinical malaria incidence (CCM, or positive BS with malaria symptoms) in children initiated on HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) with zidovudine, lamivudine, and either nevirapine (NVP), a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, or lopinavir-ritonavir (LPV-rtv), a protease inhibitor.

Results

We found an association between increased time to recurrent positive BS, but not CCM, when anti-malarial treatment and LPV-rtv based ART were used concurrently and when accounting for a LPV-rtv and antimalarial treatment interaction (adjusted HR 0.39; 95% CI (0.17,0.89); p = 0.03).

Conclusions

LPV-rtv in combination with malaria treatment was associated with lower risk of recurrent positive BS, but not CCM, in HIV-infected children. Larger, randomized studies are needed to confirm these findings which may permit ART optimization for malaria-endemic settings.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00719602

A national health facility survey of malaria infection among febrile patients in Kenya, 2014

BACKGROUND

The use of malaria infection prevalence among febrile patients at clinics has a potential to be a valuable epidemiological surveillance tool. However, routine data are incomplete and not all fevers are tested. This study was designed to screen all fevers for malaria infection in Kenya to explore the epidemiology of fever test positivity rates.

METHODS

Random sampling was used within five malaria epidemiological zones of Kenya (i.e., high lake endemic, moderate coast endemic, highland epidemic, seasonal low transmission and low risk zones). The selected sample was representative of the number of hospitals, health centres and dispensaries within each zone. Fifty patients with fever presenting to each sampled health facility during the short rainy season were screened for malaria infection using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Details of age, pregnancy status and basic demographics were recorded for each patient screened.

RESULTS

10,557 febrile patients presenting to out-patient clinics at 234 health facilities were screened for malaria infection. 1633 (15.5%) of the patients surveyed were RDT positive for malaria at 124 (53.0%) facilities. Infection prevalence among non-pregnant patients varied between malaria risk zones, ranging from 0.6% in the low risk zone to 41.6% in the high lake endemic zone. Test positivity rates (TPR) by age group reflected the differences in the intensity of transmission between epidemiological zones. In the lake endemic zone, 6% of all infections were among children aged less than 1 year, compared to 3% in the coast endemic, 1% in the highland epidemic zone, less than 1% in the seasonal low transmission zone and 0% in the low risk zone. Test positivity rate was 31% among febrile pregnant women in the high lake endemic zone compared to 9% in the coast endemic and highland epidemic zones, 3.2% in the seasonal low transmission zone and zero in the low risk zone.

CONCLUSION

Malaria infection rates among febrile patients, with supporting data on age and pregnancy status presenting to clinics in Kenya can provide invaluable epidemiological data on spatial heterogeneity of malaria and serve as replacements to more expensive community-based infection rates to plan and monitor malaria control.

Contemporary epidemiological overview of malaria in Madagascar: operational utility of reported routine case data for malaria control planning

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a major public health problem in Madagascar. Widespread scale-up of intervention coverage has led to substantial reductions in case numbers since 2000. However, political instability since 2009 has disrupted these efforts, and a resurgence of malaria has since followed. This paper re-visits the sub-national stratification of malaria transmission across Madagascar to propose a contemporary update, and evaluates the reported routine case data reported at this sub-national scale.

METHODS

Two independent malariometrics were evaluated to re-examine the status of malaria across Madagascar. First, modelled maps of Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence (PfPR) from the Malaria Atlas Project were used to update the sub-national stratification into 'ecozones' based on transmission intensity. Second, routine reports of case data from health facilities were synthesized from 2010 to 2015 to compare the sub-national epidemiology across the updated ecozones over time. Proxy indicators of data completeness are investigated.

RESULTS

The epidemiology of malaria is highly diverse across the island's ecological regions, with eight contiguous ecozones emerging from the transmission intensity PfPR map. East and west coastal areas have highest transmission year-round, contrasting with the central highlands and desert south where trends appear more closely associated with epidemic outbreak events. Ecozones have shown steady increases in reported malaria cases since 2010, with a near doubling of raw reported case numbers from 2014 to 2015. Gauges of data completeness suggest that interpretation of raw reported case numbers will underestimate true caseload as only approximately 60-75 % of health facility data are reported to the central level each month.

DISCUSSION

A sub-national perspective is essential when monitoring the epidemiology of malaria in Madagascar and assessing local control needs. A robust assessment of the status of malaria at a time when intervention coverage efforts are being scaled up provides a platform from which to guide intervention preparedness and assess change in future periods of transmission.

Mapping Malaria Risk in Low Transmission Settings: Challenges and Opportunities

As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly focal and prone to outbreaks. Understanding and predicting patterns of transmission risk becomes an important component of an effective elimination campaign, allowing limited resources for control and elimination to be targeted cost-effectively. Malaria risk mapping in low transmission settings is associated with some unique challenges. This article reviews the main challenges and opportunities related to risk mapping in low transmission areas including recent advancements in risk mapping low transmission malaria, relevant metrics, and statistical approaches and risk mapping in post-elimination settings.

Fine-Scale Mapping by Spatial Risk Distribution Modeling for Regional Malaria Endemicity and Its Implications under the Low-to-Moderate Transmission Setting in Western Cambodia

The disease burden of malaria has decreased as malaria elimination efforts progress. The mapping approach that uses spatial risk distribution modeling needs some adjustment and reinvestigation in accordance with situational changes. Here we applied a mathematical modeling approach for standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) calculated by annual parasite incidence using routinely aggregated surveillance reports, environmental data such as remote sensing data, and non-environmental anthropogenic data to create fine-scale spatial risk distribution maps of western Cambodia. Furthermore, we incorporated a combination of containment status indicators into the model to demonstrate spatial heterogeneities of the relationship between containment status and risks. The explanatory model was fitted to estimate the SMR of each area (adjusted Pearson correlation coefficient R² = 0.774; Akaike information criterion AIC = 149.423). A Bayesian modeling framework was applied to estimate the uncertainty of the model and cross-scale predictions. Fine-scale maps were created by the spatial interpolation of estimated SMRs at each village. Compared with geocoded case data, corresponding predicted values showed conformity [Spearman’s rank correlation r = 0.662 in the inverse distance weighed interpolation and 0.645 in ordinal kriging (95% confidence intervals of 0.414–0.827 and 0.368–0.813, respectively), Welch’s t-test; Not significant]. The proposed approach successfully explained regional malaria risks and fine-scale risk maps were created under low-to-moderate malaria transmission settings where reinvestigations of existing risk modeling approaches were needed. Moreover, different representations of simulated outcomes of containment status indicators for respective areas provided useful insights for tailored interventional planning, considering regional malaria endemicity.

Spatio-temporal variation and socio-demographic characters of malaria in Chimoio municipality, Mozambique

Background

In Africa, urban malaria is a major concern, since the towns and especially their suburbs are growing quickly. In Mozambique, malaria represents 45 % of all cases of outpatient visits and 56 % of inpatient visits at paediatric clinics. Malaria is a major public health burden in Chimoio Mozambique and few studies on malaria exist.

Methods

The study was carried out to establish the spatiality and temporality of malaria and describe socio-demographic characteristics of malaria patients in Chimoio. Weekly malaria data for 9 years (2006–2014) were collected from the district Epidemiological Bulletin and incidence by season, age, gender, and residence was calculated. SPSS version 20 was used for statistical analysis and ArcGis 10.1 was used to produce maps.

Results

The annual overall average of malaria incidence was 20.1 % and the attributable fraction (AF) of malaria was 16 %. There were differences in weekly and yearly malaria occurrences throughout the period. There was no difference in malaria cases between male and female patients. Children under 5 years of age are three times more prone to malaria than adults (p < 0.05). Three temporal clusters of malaria were identified: cluster 1, weeks 25–47 with average weekly cases of 618 (sd = 251.9), cluster 2, weeks 18–24 and 48–51 with average weekly cases of 1066 (sd = 317.4). cluster 3, weeks 1–17 and 52 with average weekly cases of 1587 (sd = 722.4). Similarly, three different clusters were identified according to residential areas: cluster 1 (10 %) mostly urban, cluster 2 (22 %) mostly suburbs, cluster 3 (28 %) mostly rural areas.

Conclusion

Malaria is increasing in the suburbs, and rural areas present more cases of malaria compared to urban areas. This article is an initial step to understand the dynamics of malaria in Chimoio. Results suggest that malaria varies in time and space, and that precision public health strategy should be used to control malaria occurrence. Studies on weather factors affecting malaria cases, bed net usage, and others should be undertaken.

Chronic malaria and hyper-reactive malarial splenomegaly: a retrospective study on the largest series observed in a non-endemic country

BACKGROUND

Chronic malaria is usually defined as a long-term malarial infection in semi-immune subjects, usually without fever or other acute symptoms. The untreated infection may evolve to hyper-reactive malarial splenomegaly (HMS), a life-threatening complication. This paper describes the largest series of HMS ever observed outside endemic countries, and the clinical outcome after a single anti-malarial treatment. Contrarily to most authors, still reporting the traditional, long-term treatment, regardless possible further exposure, the patients in this series did not receive any further prophylaxis if they were not re-exposed to malaria infection.

METHODS

A retrospective, longitudinal study, describing all patients with HMS diagnosed at the Centre for Tropical Diseases of Negrar, Verona, took place over a 25-year period. HMS was defined by a longitudinal spleen diameter ≥16 cm, IgM ≥ 2.5 g/L, anti-malarial antibody titre ≥160, exclusion of other causes of splenomegaly. The short-term (≤6 months) clinical outcome after a single anti-malarial treatment was analysed and so was the long-term outcome of subjects re-exposed to malaria and submitted or not to anti-malarial prophylaxis or intermittent treatment. The association of the outcome with the main independent variables was first assessed with univariate analysis. Logistic regression was also performed.

RESULTS

Forty-four subjects with HMS were retrieved. Of those with a short-term follow-up visit (<6 months, median 43 days) available before returning to endemic areas, 20/22 resulted improved/cured, two were unchanged. Of 22 expatriates seen at long-term follow-up after re-exposure, 18 were improved/cured, including eight out of nine who had followed an anti-malarial prophylaxis and 10/13 who had opted for the alternative of an intermittent treatment.

CONCLUSION

HMS is the most severe form of chronic malaria. A single anti-malarial treatment is probably adequate to treat HMS in the absence of re-exposure, while an adequate prophylaxis is necessary for patients exposed again to malaria transmission. Intermittent treatment would probably be the only viable approach in endemic countries.

Identifying Malaria Transmission Foci for Elimination Using Human Mobility Data

Humans move frequently and tend to carry parasites among areas with endemic malaria and into areas where local transmission is unsustainable. Human-mediated parasite mobility can thus sustain parasite populations in areas where they would otherwise be absent. Data describing human mobility and malaria epidemiology can help classify landscapes into parasite demographic sources and sinks, ecological concepts that have parallels in malaria control discussions of transmission foci. By linking transmission to parasite flow, it is possible to stratify landscapes for malaria control and elimination, as sources are disproportionately important to the regional persistence of malaria parasites. Here, we identify putative malaria sources and sinks for pre-elimination Namibia using malaria parasite rate (PR) maps and call data records from mobile phones, using a steady-state analysis of a malaria transmission model to infer where infections most likely occurred. We also examined how the landscape of transmission and burden changed from the pre-elimination setting by comparing the location and extent of predicted pre-elimination transmission foci with modeled incidence for 2009. This comparison suggests that while transmission was spatially focal pre-elimination, the spatial distribution of cases changed as burden declined. The changing spatial distribution of burden could be due to importation, with cases focused around importation hotspots, or due to heterogeneous application of elimination effort. While this framework is an important step towards understanding progressive changes in malaria distribution and the role of subnational transmission dynamics in a policy-relevant way, future work should account for international parasite movement, utilize real time surveillance data, and relax the steady state assumption required by the presented model.

For countries considering pursuing malaria elimination, understanding where malaria transmission occurs is crucial for intervention planning. By identifying the areas that act as sources of malaria parasites, elimination programs can target efforts to end local transmission and achieve nationwide elimination. Mapping parasite sources requires a modeling framework that integrates malaria burden and human movement information, however, as human mobility facilitates parasite spread and drives source-sink disease dynamics. In this study, we present a mathematical model that can be used to identify areas with self-sustaining malaria transmission when analyzed at equilibrium. We demonstrate how this method can inform elimination planning for countries with stable low transmission using data from Namibia. The maps of sources and sinks created using this method can be used to direct policy and target areas with self-sustaining malaria transmission in countries with stable transmission. Finally, we compare the predicted extent of transmission foci with more recent maps of incidence, to determine whether local transmission likely retreated into focal areas and the potential importance of importation.

The Impact of Hotspot-Targeted Interventions on Malaria Transmission in Rachuonyo South District in the Western Kenyan Highlands: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, generating malaria hotspots that can fuel malaria transmission across a wider area. Targeting hotspots may represent an efficacious strategy for reducing malaria transmission. We determined the impact of interventions targeted to serologically defined malaria hotspots on malaria transmission both inside hotspots and in surrounding communities.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Twenty-seven serologically defined malaria hotspots were detected in a survey conducted from 24 June to 31 July 2011 that included 17,503 individuals from 3,213 compounds in a 100-km2 area in Rachuonyo South District, Kenya. In a cluster-randomized trial from 22 March to 15 April 2012, we randomly allocated five clusters to hotspot-targeted interventions with larviciding, distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, and focal mass drug administration (2,082 individuals in 432 compounds); five control clusters received malaria control following Kenyan national policy (2,468 individuals in 512 compounds). Our primary outcome measure was parasite prevalence in evaluation zones up to 500 m outside hotspots, determined by nested PCR (nPCR) at baseline and 8 wk (16 June-6 July 2012) and 16 wk (21 August-10 September 2012) post-intervention by technicians blinded to the intervention arm. Secondary outcome measures were parasite prevalence inside hotpots, parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone as a function of distance from the hotspot boundary, Anopheles mosquito density, mosquito breeding site productivity, malaria incidence by passive case detection, and the safety and acceptability of the interventions. Intervention coverage exceeded 87% for all interventions. Hotspot-targeted interventions did not result in a change in nPCR parasite prevalence outside hotspot boundaries (p ≥ 0.187). We observed an average reduction in nPCR parasite prevalence of 10.2% (95% CI -1.3 to 21.7%) inside hotspots 8 wk post-intervention that was statistically significant after adjustment for covariates (p = 0.024), but not 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.265). We observed no statistically significant trend in the effect of the intervention on nPCR parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone in relation to distance from the hotspot boundary 8 wk (p = 0.27) or 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.75). Thirty-six patients with clinical malaria confirmed by rapid diagnostic test could be located to intervention or control clusters, with no apparent difference between the study arms. In intervention clusters we caught an average of 1.14 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.47 in evaluation zones; in control clusters we caught an average of 0.90 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.50 in evaluation zones, with no apparent difference between study arms. Our trial was not powered to detect subtle effects of hotspot-targeted interventions nor designed to detect effects of interventions over multiple transmission seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high coverage, the impact of interventions targeting malaria vectors and human infections on nPCR parasite prevalence was modest, transient, and restricted to the targeted hotspot areas. Our findings suggest that transmission may not primarily occur from hotspots to the surrounding areas and that areas with highly heterogeneous but widespread malaria transmission may currently benefit most from an untargeted community-wide approach. Hotspot-targeted approaches may have more validity in settings where human settlement is more nuclear.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01575613.

Trends in Malaria in Odisha, India-An Analysis of the 2003-2013 Time-Series Data from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program

Background

Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state.

Methods

Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003–2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003–2013 and 2014–2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003–2007) and post-intensification (2009–2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state.

Results

The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003–2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95% CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25% to 11.77%. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009–2013 as compared to that in 2003–2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200% greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence <1/1000) unlikely by 2017.

Conclusion

The anti-malaria strategies in Odisha, especially their intensification since 2008, have helped improve its malaria situation in recent years. These successful measures need to be sustained and perhaps intensified further for eliminating malaria from Odisha.

Estimating malaria transmission intensity from Plasmodium falciparum serological data using antibody density models

Background

Serological data are increasingly being used to monitor malaria transmission intensity and have been demonstrated to be particularly useful in areas of low transmission where traditional measures such as EIR and parasite prevalence are limited. The seroconversion rate (SCR) is usually estimated using catalytic models in which the measured antibody levels are used to categorize individuals as seropositive or seronegative. One limitation of this approach is the requirement to impose a fixed cut-off to distinguish seropositive and negative individuals. Furthermore, the continuous variation in antibody levels is ignored thereby potentially reducing the precision of the estimate.

Methods

An age-specific density model which mimics antibody acquisition and loss was developed to make full use of the information provided by serological measures of antibody levels. This was fitted to blood-stage antibody density data from 12 villages at varying transmission intensity in Northern Tanzania to estimate the exposure rate as an alternative measure of transmission intensity.

Results

The results show a high correlation between the exposure rate estimates obtained and the estimated SCR obtained from a catalytic model (r = 0.95) and with two derived measures of EIR (r = 0.74 and r = 0.81). Estimates of exposure rate obtained with the density model were also more precise than those derived from catalytic models.

Conclusion

This approach, if validated across different epidemiological settings, could be a useful alternative framework for quantifying transmission intensity, which makes more complete use of serological data.

Antibody acquisition models: A new tool for serological surveillance of malaria transmission intensity

Serology has become an increasingly important tool for the surveillance of a wide range of infectious diseases. It has been particularly useful to monitor malaria transmission in elimination settings where existing metrics such as parasite prevalence and incidence of clinical cases are less sensitive. Seroconversion rates, based on antibody prevalence to Plasmodium falciparum asexual blood-stage antigens, provide estimates of transmission intensity that correlate with entomological inoculation rates but lack precision in settings where seroprevalence is still high. Here we present a new and widely applicable method, based on cross-sectional data on individual antibody levels. We evaluate its use as a sero-surveillance tool in a Tanzanian setting with declining malaria prevalence. We find that the newly developed mathematical models produce more precise estimates of transmission patterns, are robust in high transmission settings and when sample sizes are small, and provide a powerful tool for serological evaluation of malaria transmission intensity.

Multiple causes of an unexpected malaria outbreak in a high-transmission area in Madagascar

Background

The malaria burden in Madagascar dropped down last decade, largely due to scale-up of control measures. Nevertheless, a significant rise of malaria cases occurred in 2011–2012 in two regions of the rainy South-Eastern Madagascar, where malaria is considered as mesoendemic and the population is supposed to be protected by its acquired immunity against Plasmodium. A multidisciplinary investigation was conducted in order to identify the causes of the outbreak.

Methods

In March 2012, a cross-sectional study was conducted in 20 randomly selected clusters, involving the rapid diagnostic testing of all ≥6 month-old members of households and a questionnaire about socio-demographic data and exposure to malaria control interventions. Changes in environmental conditions were evaluated by qualitative interview of local authorities, climatic conditions were evaluated by remote-sensing, and stock outs of malaria supplies in health facilities were evaluated by quantitative means. Two long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) were sampled in each cluster in order to evaluate their condition and the remanence of their insecticidal activity. The entomological investigation also encompassed the collection Anopheles vectors in two sites, and the measure of their sensitivity to deltamethrin.

Results

The cross-sectional survey included 1615 members of 440 households. The mean Plasmodium infection rate was 25.6 % and the mean bed net use on the day before survey was 71.1 %. The prevalence of Plasmodium infections was higher in 6–14 year-old children (odds ratio (OR) 7.73 [95 % CI 3.58–16.68]), in rural areas (OR 6.25 [4.46–8.76]), in poorest socio-economic tercile (OR 1.54 [1.13–2.08]), and it was lower in individuals sleeping regularly under the bed net (OR 0.51 [0.32–0.82]). Stock outs of anti-malarial drugs in the last 6 months have been reported in two third of health facilities. Rainfalls were increased as compared with the three previous rainy seasons. Vectors collected were sensitive to pyrethroids. Two years after distribution, nearly all LLINs collected showed a loss of physical integrity and insecticide activity,

Conclusions

Increased rainfall, decreasing use and reduced insecticide activity of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, and drug shortages may have been responsible for, or contributed to, the outbreak observed in South-Eastern Madagascar in 2011–2012. Control interventions for malaria elimination must be sustained at the risk of triggering harmful epidemics, even in zones of high transmission.

Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice of vector control intervention has been largely guided by a parameter sensitivity analysis of George Macdonald's theory of vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods that kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice has been highly successful for transmission suppression, there is a need to revisit these arguments as policymakers in certain areas consider which combinations of interventions are required to eliminate malaria.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps. These can arise due to pre-existing or developing mosquito physiological and behavioral refractoriness but also due to additive changes in the relative importance of different vector species for transmission. Furthermore, the optimal combination of interventions will depend on the operational constraints and costs associated with reaching high coverage levels with each intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling. Our results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.

Comparison of diagnostics for the detection of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections to inform control and elimination strategies

The global burden of malaria has been substantially reduced over the past two decades. Future efforts to reduce malaria further will require moving beyond the treatment of clinical infections to targeting malaria transmission more broadly in the community. As such, the accurate identification of asymptomatic human infections, which can sustain a large proportion of transmission, is becoming a vital component of control and elimination programmes. We determined the relationship across common diagnostics used to measure malaria prevalence - polymerase chain reaction (PCR), rapid diagnostic test and microscopy - for the detection of Plasmodium falciparum infections in endemic populations based on a pooled analysis of cross-sectional data. We included data from more than 170,000 individuals comparing the detection by rapid diagnostic test and microscopy, and 30,000 for detection by rapid diagnostic test and PCR. The analysis showed that, on average, rapid diagnostic tests detected 41% (95% confidence interval = 26-66%) of PCR-positive infections. Data for the comparison of rapid diagnostic test to PCR detection at high transmission intensity and in adults were sparse. Prevalence measured by rapid diagnostic test and microscopy was comparable, although rapid diagnostic test detected slightly more infections than microscopy. On average, microscopy captured 87% (95% confidence interval = 74-102%) of rapid diagnostic test-positive infections. The extent to which higher rapid diagnostic test detection reflects increased sensitivity, lack of specificity or both, is unclear. Once the contribution of asymptomatic individuals to the infectious reservoir is better defined, future analyses should ideally establish optimal detection limits of new diagnostics for use in control and elimination strategies.

Mapping residual transmission for malaria elimination

Eliminating malaria from a defined region involves draining the endemic parasite reservoir and minimizing local malaria transmission around imported malaria infections. In the last phases of malaria elimination, as universal interventions reap diminishing marginal returns, national resources must become increasingly devoted to identifying where residual transmission is occurring. The needs for accurate measures of progress and practical advice about how to allocate scarce resources require new analytical methods to quantify fine-grained heterogeneity in malaria risk. Using routine national surveillance data from Swaziland (a sub-Saharan country on the verge of elimination), we estimated individual reproductive numbers. Fine-grained maps of reproductive numbers and local malaria importation rates were combined to show ‘malariogenic potential’, a first for malaria elimination. As countries approach elimination, these individual-based measures of transmission risk provide meaningful metrics for planning programmatic responses and prioritizing areas where interventions will contribute most to malaria elimination.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09520.001

Swaziland has set a national goal of eliminating malaria transmission in the very short term, which would make it the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to do so. More than half of the cases of malaria that are observed in Swaziland are caused by infections picked up by travelers while they were in other countries where the disease is much more prevalent. The other cases – people who became infected in Swaziland – are the cases that the government of Swaziland is trying to prevent.

If Swaziland is going to eliminate malaria, it will need to identify any places where the malaria parasites are still spreading throughout the population so it can target those communities with effective prevention measures. It will also need to manage the risk that infections imported from abroad may re-start transmission in places where it has been stopped.

To work out how likely it is that a malaria infection will be transmitted by mosquitoes in a particular place, researchers can look at past malaria data and calculate how many new infections are caused by each case. Reiner et al. have now produced a computer model that estimates how this number varies across Swaziland, highlighting places where the government is going to need to focus efforts to eliminate malaria. The model shows that in some rural areas near Mozambique, each individual infected with malaria is causing more than one other person to become infected. This confirms that the disease has not yet been eliminated from these areas. However, in other regions of the country, malaria rarely spreads between individuals.

The detailed regional information from the model may help public health authorities in Swaziland better target their anti-malaria resources. In large cities where most cases are imported, Reiner et al. suggest focusing resources on providing preventive treatment to travelers who plan on visiting places where malaria is spreading. However, in rural areas where malaria continues to spread, preventively treating the whole population or providing them with tools to protect them from mosquitoes might be more appropriate. Similar considerations of regional differences in the spread of malaria could also help other countries to more effectively combat the disease.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09520.002

A geostatistical analysis of the association between armed conflicts and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa, 1997-2010

BACKGROUND

The absence of conflict in a country has been cited as a crucial factor affecting the operational feasibility of achieving malaria control and elimination, yet mixed evidence exists on the influence that conflicts have had on malaria transmission. Over the past two decades, Africa has seen substantial numbers of armed conflicts of varying length and scale, creating conditions that can disrupt control efforts and impact malaria transmission. However, very few studies have quantitatively assessed the associations between conflicts and malaria transmission, particularly in a consistent way across multiple countries.

METHODS

In this analysis an explicit geostatistical, autoregressive, mixed model is employed to quantitatively assess the association between conflicts and variations in Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence across a 13-year period in sub-Saharan Africa.

RESULTS

Analyses of geolocated, malaria prevalence survey variations against armed conflict data in general showed a wide, but short-lived impact of conflict events geographically. The number of countries with decreased P. falciparum parasite prevalence (17) is larger than the number of countries with increased transmission (12), and notably, some of the countries with the highest transmission pre-conflict were still found with lower transmission post-conflict. For four countries, there were no significant changes in parasite prevalence. Finally, distance from conflicts, duration of conflicts, violence of conflict, and number of conflicts were significant components in the model explaining the changes in P. falciparum parasite rate.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that the maintenance of intervention coverage and provision of healthcare in conflict situations to protect vulnerable populations can maintain gains in even the most difficult of circumstances, and that conflict does not represent a substantial barrier to elimination goals.