Seasonal trends of viral respiratory tract infections in the tropics

Predicting temporal propagation of seasonal influenza using improved gaussian process model

Influenza rapidly spreads in seasonal epidemics and imposes a considerable economic burden on hospitals and other healthcare costs. Thus, predicting the propagation of influenza accurately is crucial in preventing influenza outbreaks and protecting public health. Most current studies focus on the spread simulation of influenza. However, few studies have investigated the dependencies between meteorological variables and influenza activity. This study develops a non-parametric model based on Gaussian process regression for influenza prediction considering meteorological effect to capture temporal dependencies hidden in influenza time series. To identify the most explanatory external variables, L₁-regularization is applied to identify meteorology factor subsets, and three types of covariance functions are designed to characterize non-stationary and periodic behavior in influenza activity. The dependencies of diseases and meteorology are modeled through the designed cross-covariance function. A real case in Shenzhen, China was studied to validate our proposed model along with comparisons to recently developed multivariate statistical models for influenza prediction. Results show that our proposed influenza prediction approach achieves superior performance in terms of one-week-ahead prediction of influenza-like illness.

Waterborne Diseases Arising From Climate Change

As a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, increased floods and droughts, change in climate will affect biological, physical, and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. Identifying the role of weather in waterborne infection is a priority public health research issue as climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation and temperature events. This chapter provides evidence that precipitation and temperature can affect directly or indirectly water quality and consequently affect the health human. This chapter also highlights the complex relationship between precipitation or temperature and transmission of waterborne disease such as diarrheal disease, gastroenteritis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, and cholera.

Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting

BACKGROUND

In temperate and subtropical climates, respiratory diseases exhibit seasonal peaks in winter. In the tropics, with no winter, peak timings are irregular.

METHODS

To obtain a detailed picture of influenza-like illness (ILI) patterns in the tropics, we established an mHealth study in community clinics in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During 2009-2015, clinics reported daily case numbers via SMS, with a subset performing molecular diagnostics for influenza virus. This real-time epidemiology network absorbs 6000 ILI reports annually, one or two orders of magnitude more than typical surveillance systems. A real-time online ILI indicator was developed to inform clinicians of the daily ILI activity in HCMC.

RESULTS

From August 2009 to December 2015, 63 clinics were enrolled and 36 920 SMS reports were received, covering approximately 1.7M outpatient visits. Approximately 10.6% of outpatients met the ILI case definition. ILI activity in HCMC exhibited strong nonannual dynamics with a dominant periodicity of 206 days. This was confirmed by time series decomposition, stepwise regression, and a forecasting exercise showing that median forecasting errors are 30%-40% lower when using a 206-day cycle. In ILI patients from whom nasopharyngeal swabs were taken, 31.2% were positive for influenza. There was no correlation between the ILI time series and the time series of influenza, influenza A, or influenza B (all P > 0.15).

CONCLUSION

This suggests, for the first time, that a nonannual cycle may be an essential driver of respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics. An immunological interference hypothesis is discussed as a potential underlying mechanism.

Seasonality of respiratory viruses causing hospitalizations for acute respiratory infections in children in Nha Trang, Vietnam

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Hospitalizations for respiratory viruses are seasonal in Vietnam

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Respiratory syncytial virus peaks in the late summer months, and inuenza A in April to June

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No clear seasonality is seen for human rhinovirus

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Human parainuenza 3 and human rhinovirus are positively associated with dew point

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This work can inform the timing of inuenza and RSV vaccination and the judicious use of antibiotics in Vietnam

Background

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the most common causes of death in children under 5 years of age. While the etiology of most pneumonia and ARI episodes is undiagnosed, a broad range of ARI-causing viruses circulate widely in South East Asia. However, the patterns and drivers of the seasonal transmission dynamics are largely unknown. Here we identify the seasonal patterns of multiple circulating viruses associated with hospitalizations for ARIs in Nha Trang, Vietnam.

Methods

Hospital based enhanced surveillance of childhood ARI is ongoing at Khanh Hoa General Hospital in Nha Trang. RT-PCR was performed to detect 13 respiratory viruses in nasopharyngeal samples from enrolled patients. Seasonal patterns of childhood ARI hospital admissions of various viruses were assessed, as well as their association with rainfall, temperature, and dew point.

Results

Respiratory syncytial virus peaks in the late summer months, and influenza A in April to June. We find significant associations between detection of human parainfluenza 3 and human rhinovirus with the month's mean dew point. Using a cross-wavelet transform we find a significant out-of-phase relationship between human parainfluenza 3 and temperature and dew point.

Conclusions

Our results are important for understanding the temporal risk associated with circulating pathogens in Southern Central Vietnam. Specifically, our results can inform timing of routing seasonal influenza vaccination and for when observed respiratory illness is likely viral, leading to judicious use of antibiotics in the region.

Dynamics of influenza in tropical Africa: Temperature, humidity, and co-circulating (sub)types

BACKGROUND

The association of influenza with meteorological variables in tropical climates remains controversial. Here, we investigate the impact of weather conditions on influenza in the tropics and factors that may contribute to this uncertainty.

METHODS

We computed the monthly viral positive rate for each of the 3 circulating influenza (sub)types (ie, A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B) among patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) or severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in 2 Ugandan cities (Entebbe and Kampala). Using this measure as a proxy for influenza activity, we applied regression models to examine the impact of temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and precipitation, as well as interactions among the 3 influenza viruses on the epidemic dynamics of each influenza (sub)type. A full analysis including all 4 weather variables was done for Entebbe during 2007-2015, and a partial analysis including only temperature and precipitation was done for both cities during 2008-2014.

RESULTS

For Entebbe, the associations with weather variables differed by influenza (sub)type; with adjustment for viral interactions, the models showed that precipitation and temperature were negatively correlated with A/H1N1 activity, but not for A/H3N2 or B. A mutually negative association between A/H3N2 and B activity was identified in both Entebbe and Kampala.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that key interactions exist among influenza (sub)types at the population level in the tropics and that such interactions can modify the association of influenza activity with weather variables. Studies of the relationship between influenza and weather conditions should therefore determine and account for co-circulating influenza (sub)types.

The role of UV radiation and vitamin D in the seasonality and outcomes of infectious disease

The seasonality of infectious disease outbreaks suggests that environmental conditions have a significant effect on disease risk. One of the major environmental factors that can affect this is solar radiation, primarily acting through ultraviolet radiation (UVR), and its subsequent control of vitamin D production. Here we show how UVR and vitamin D, which are modified by latitude and season, can affect host and pathogen fitness and relate them to the outcomes of bacterial, viral and vector-borne infections. We conducted a thorough comparison of the molecular and cellular mechanisms of action of UVR and vitamin D on pathogen fitness and host immunity and related these to the effects observed in animal models and clinical trials to understand their independent and complementary effects on infectious disease outcome. UVR and vitamin D share common pathways of innate immune activation primarily via antimicrobial peptide production, and adaptive immune suppression. Whilst UVR can induce vitamin D-independent effects in the skin, such as the generation of photoproducts activating interferon signaling, vitamin D has a larger systemic effect due to its autocrine and paracrine modulation of cellular responses in a range of tissues. However, the seasonal patterns in infectious disease prevalence are not solely driven by variation in UVR and vitamin D levels across latitudes. Vector-borne pathogens show a strong seasonality of infection correlated to climatic conditions favoring their replication. Conversely, pathogens, such as influenza A virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus type 1, have strong evidence to support their interaction with vitamin D. Thus, UVR has both vitamin D-dependent and independent effects on infectious diseases; these effects vary depending on the pathogen of interest and the effects can be complementary or antagonistic.

Identifying agents triggering bronchiolitis in the State of Qatar

BACKGROUND

Bronchiolitis is considered as the most frequent lower respiratory tract infection in infants and young children. This disorder is marked by acute inflammation, edema, damage of epithelial cells lining small airways, and augmentation of mucus production.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of the study was to identify agents triggering bronchiolitis in the State of Qatar.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional retrospective study was performed at Hamad Medical Corporation, the only tertiary and academic medical center in the State of Qatar. The study included infants and young children aged 0-24 months who were admitted to our pediatric ward with diagnosis of acute bronchiolitis (2010-2012).

RESULTS

Eight hundred thirty-five infants and young children met the study inclusion criteria with mean age at diagnosis of 3.61±3.56 months. Respiratory virus real-time polymerase chain reaction was performed on 769 (92.0%) of the participants. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was positive in 352 (45.7%) children admitted with clinical bronchiolitis. In addition, no viruses were identified in 142 (18.4%) of those admitted, and respiratory viruses other RSV were found in 275 (35.7%) of the children. Our investigations and observations show that there has been a steady and periodic seasonal variation in the RSV rate over the study period. A seasonal trend for the RSV (detected by respiratory virus real-time polymerase chain reaction) rate was evident, showing annual peaks in the months of October, November, December, and January, with a significant test for seasonality (test statistics [T]=3.15, P=0.009).

CONCLUSION

In countries with desert hot weather, bronchiolitis might affect children throughout the year. Our results suggest that the combination of date regarding uninterrupted RSV seasonality can provide guidance for health care planning and application of RSV prevention scheme, such as extending the palivizumab immunoglobulin series.

Literature review of the epidemiology of influenza B disease in 15 countries in the Asia-Pacific region

Influenza control strategies focus on the use of trivalent influenza vaccines containing two influenza A virus subtypes and one of the two circulating influenza type B lineages (Yamagata or Victoria). Mismatches between the vaccine B lineage and the circulating lineage have been regularly documented in many countries, including those in the Asia‐Pacific region. We conducted a literature review with the aim of understanding the relative circulation of influenza B viruses in Asia‐Pacific countries. PubMed and Western Pacific Region Index Medicus were searched for relevant articles on influenza type B published since 1990 in English language for 15 Asia‐Pacific countries. Gray literature was also accessed. From 4834 articles identified, 121 full‐text articles were analyzed. Influenza was reported as an important cause of morbidity in the Asia‐Pacific region, affecting all age groups. In all 15 countries, influenza B was identified and associated with between 0% and 92% of laboratory‐confirmed influenza cases in any one season/year. Influenza type B appeared to cause more illness in children aged between 1 and 10 years than in other age groups. Epidemiological data for the two circulating influenza type B lineages remain limited in several countries in the Asia‐Pacific, although the co‐circulation of both lineages was seen in countries where strain surveillance data were available. Mismatches between circulating B lineages and vaccine strains were observed in all countries with available data. The data suggest that a shift from trivalent to quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccines could provide additional benefits by providing broader protection.

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality and its implications on prevention strategies

With maternal and infant vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in development, it is timely to consider how the deployment of these vaccines might vary according to local RSV disease seasonality. In temperate regions RSV infection is predictably limited to a period of 3 to 5 months, while in tropical regions disease seasonality is often both more variable and more prolonged. Accordingly, in tropical regions a year-round immunisation schedule for both maternal and infant immunisation might be appropriate. In contrast, in temperate regions the benefit of year-round maternal immunisation would be heavily dependent on the duration of protection this provided, potentially necessitating a strategy directed at children due to be born in the months immediately prior to the RSV season. This review will consider the impact of seasonality on maternal and infant immunisation strategies against RSV, and the potential of an alternative approach of passive immunisation for all infants immediately prior to the RSV season.

Impact of meteorological factors on the emergence of bronchiolitis in North-western Greece

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relationship between meteorological factors in North-western Greece and the incidence of bronchiolitis.

METHODS

Meteorological data (air temperature and rainfall) for Ioannina city in North-western Greece and medical data from hospitalised patients at University Hospital of Ioannina were collected between January 2002 and December 2013. The association between meteorological factors and rate of hospitalisation due to bronchiolitis was investigated. The data processing was done using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient and applying the chi-square test at contingency tables of the parameters.

RESULTS

Of the 792 hospitalised cases, 670 related to infants (<1 year) and 122 concerned patients aged 1-2 years old. The disease is more common among boys (59.5%) than girls (40.5%). The disease course through the year has a double variation with a main maximum in March and a main minimum in August. The statistical study showed statistically significant correlation of bronchiolitis with: (a) the temperature parameters on an annual basis; (b) precipitation in autumn and dryness in spring; and (c) with sudden changes in diurnal temperature range on an annual basis.

CONCLUSION

A peak incidence of bronchiolitis was noticed in cold and wet seasons during the five days preceding hospitalisation.

Antibiotic Prescribing for Patients with Upper Respiratory Tract Infections by Emergency Physicians in a Singapore Tertiary Hospital

Objective

Despite the paucity of supporting evidence, the use of antibiotics in the management of upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) remains a persistent and worrying trend worldwide. This survey study set out to examine the antibiotic prescribing profile of emergency physicians for patients diagnosed with URTI at a local tertiary hospital.

Methods

Patients seeking treatment for URTI at the emergency department in the year 2001 were identified by their ICD-9 code. The electronic medical records of a random sample of these patients were reviewed. Patients with the following documented findings were excluded: (a) a duration of more than 7 days between disease onset and date of consultation, (b) prior antibiotic usage or medical consultation, (c) presentation of purulent sputum and/or purulent nasal discharge, and (d) existing medical conditions requiring antibiotic treatment/prophylaxis. Chi-square and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the association of patient-related factors with antibiotic prescribing.

Results

Of a random sample of 488 cases of URTI, inappropriate antibiotic prescribing was observed in 24% of cases (95% CI 20%, 28%). Significant associations were observed between antibiotic prescribing and month of consultation, patients' temperature and symptom of rhinorrhoea.

Conclusion

A substantial proportion of emergency department patients with URTI received antibiotics despite the lack of evidence supporting the drugs' effectiveness. Appropriate interventions to promote evidence-based prescribing amongst emergency physicians are required to reduce the extent of inappropriate antibiotic prescribing as well as to ensure the longevity of antibiotic effectiveness.

A dual-mode textile for human body radiative heating and cooling

Maintaining human body temperature is one of the most basic needs for living, which often consumes a huge amount of energy to keep the ambient temperature constant. To expand the ambient temperature range while maintaining human thermal comfort, the concept of personal thermal management has been recently demonstrated in heating and cooling textiles separately through human body infrared radiation control. Realizing these two opposite functions within the same textile would represent an exciting scientific challenge and a significant technological advancement. We demonstrate a dual-mode textile that can perform both passive radiative heating and cooling using the same piece of textile without any energy input. The dual-mode textile is composed of a bilayer emitter embedded inside an infrared-transparent nanoporous polyethylene (nanoPE) layer. We demonstrate that the asymmetrical characteristics of both emissivity and nanoPE thickness can result in two different heat transfer coefficients and achieve heating when the low-emissivity layer is facing outside and cooling by wearing the textile inside out when the high-emissivity layer is facing outside. This can expand the thermal comfort zone by 6.5°C. Numerical fitting of the data further predicts 14.7°C of comfort zone expansion for dual-mode textiles with large emissivity contrast.

Extreme precipitation and emergency room visits for influenza in Massachusetts: a case-crossover analysis

BACKGROUND

Influenza peaks during the wintertime in temperate regions and during the annual rainy season in tropical regions - however reasons for the observed differences in disease ecology are poorly understood. We hypothesize that episodes of extreme precipitation also result in increased influenza in the Northeastern United States, but this association is not readily apparent, as no defined 'rainy season' occurs. Our objective was to evaluate the association between extreme precipitation (≥ 99th percentile) events and risk of emergency room (ER) visit for influenza in Massachusetts during 2002-2008.

METHODS

A case-crossover analysis of extreme precipitation events and influenza ER visits was conducted using hospital administrative data including patient town of residence, date of visit, age, sex, and associated diagnostic codes. Daily precipitation estimates were generated for each town based upon data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between extreme precipitation and ER visits for influenza were estimated using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Extreme precipitation events were associated with an OR = 1.23 (95%CI: 1.16, 1.30) for ER visits for influenza at lag days 0-6. There was significant effect modification by race, with the strongest association observed among Blacks (OR = 1.48 (1.30, 1.68)).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a positive association between extreme precipitation events and ER visits for influenza, particularly among Blacks. Our results suggest that influenza is associated with extreme precipitation in a temperate area; this association could be a result of disease ecology, behavioral changes such as indoor crowding, or both. Extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in the Northeastern United States as climate change progresses. Additional research exploring the basis of this association can inform potential interventions for extreme weather events and influenza transmission.

Influence of weather on incidence of bronchiolitis in Australia and New Zealand

AIM

We aimed to examine the impact of weather on hospital admissions with bronchiolitis in Australia and New Zealand.

METHODS

We collected data for inpatient admissions of infants aged 2-12 months to seven hospitals in four cities in Australia and New Zealand from 2009 until 2011. Correlation of hospital admissions with minimum daily temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and rainfall was examined using linear, Poisson and negative binomial regression analyses as well as general estimated equation models. To account for possible lag between exposure to weather and admission to hospital, analyses were conducted for time lags of 0-4 weeks.

RESULTS

During the study period, 3876 patients were admitted to the study hospitals. Hospital admissions showed strong seasonality with peaks in wintertime, onset in autumn and offset in spring. The onset of peak incidence was preceded by a drop in temperature. Minimum temperature was inversely correlated with hospital admissions, whereas wind speed was directly correlated. These correlations were sustained for time lags of up to 4 weeks. Standardised correlation coefficients ranged from -0.14 to -0.54 for minimum temperature and from 0.18 to 0.39 for wind speed. Relative humidity and rainfall showed no correlation with hospital admissions in our study.

CONCLUSION

A decrease in temperature and increasing wind speed are associated with increasing incidence of bronchiolitis hospital admissions in Australia and New Zealand.

CHD and respiratory syncytial virus: global expert exchange recommendations

BACKGROUND

Palivizumab is the standard immunoprophylaxis against serious disease due to respiratory syncytial virus infection. Current evidence-based prophylaxis guidelines may not address certain children with CHD within specific high-risk groups or clinical/management settings.

METHODS

An international steering committee of clinicians with expertise in paediatric heart disease identified key questions concerning palivizumab administration; in collaboration with an additional international expert faculty, evidence-based recommendations were formulated using a quasi-Delphi consensus methodology.

RESULTS

Palivizumab prophylaxis was recommended for children with the following conditions: <2 years with unoperated haemodynamically significant CHD, who are cyanotic, who have pulmonary hypertension, or symptomatic airway abnormalities; <1 year with cardiomyopathies requiring treatment; in the 1st year of life with surgically operated CHD with haemodynamically significant residual problems or aged 1-2 years up to 6 months postoperatively; and on heart transplant waiting lists or in their 1st year after heart transplant. Unanimous consensus was not reached for use of immunoprophylaxis in children with asymptomatic CHD and other co-morbid factors such as arrhythmias, Down syndrome, or immunodeficiency, or during a nosocomial outbreak. Challenges to effective immunoprophylaxis included the following: multidisciplinary variations in identifying candidates with CHD and prophylaxis compliance; limited awareness of severe disease risks/burden; and limited knowledge of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal patterns in subtropical/tropical regions.

CONCLUSION

Evidence-based immunoprophylaxis recommendations were formulated for subgroups of children with CHD, but more data are needed to guide use in tropical/subtropical countries and in children with certain co-morbidities.

Pneumonia in the tropics

Pneumonia in the tropics poses a heavy disease burden. The complex interplay of climate change, human migration influences and socio-economic factors lead to changing patterns of respiratory infections in tropical climate but also increasingly in temperate countries. Tropical and poorer countries, especially South East Asia, also bear the brunt of the global tuberculosis (TB) pandemic, accounting for almost one-third of the burden. But, as human migration patterns evolve, we expect to see more TB cases in higher income as well as temperate countries, and rise in infections like scrub typhus from ecotourism activities. Fuelled by the ease of air travel, novel zoonotic infections originating from the tropics have led to global respiratory pandemics. As such, clinicians worldwide should be aware of these new conditions as well as classical tropical bacterial pneumonias such as melioidosis. Rarer entities such as co-infections of leptospirosis and chikungunya or dengue will need careful consideration as well. In this review, we highlight aetiologies of pneumonia seen more commonly in the tropics compared with temperate regions, their disease burden, variable clinical presentations as well as impact on healthcare delivery.

Detection of viral respiratory pathogens in mild and severe acute respiratory infections in Singapore

To investigate the performance of laboratory methods and clinical case definitions in detecting the viral pathogens for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) from a prospective community cohort and hospital inpatients, nasopharyngeal swabs from cohort members reporting ARIs (community-ARI) and inpatients admitted with ARIs (inpatient-ARI) were tested by Singleplex Real Time-Polymerase Chain Reaction (SRT-PCR), multiplex RT-PCR (MRT-PCR) and pathogen-chip system (PathChip) between April 2012 and December 2013. Community-ARI and inpatient-ARI was also combined with mild and severe cases of influenza from a historical prospective study as mild-ARI and severe-ARI respectively to evaluate the performance of clinical case definitions. We analysed 130 community-ARI and 140 inpatient-ARI episodes (5 inpatient-ARI excluded because multiple pathogens were detected), involving 138 and 207 samples respectively. Detection by PCR declined with days post-onset for influenza virus; decrease was faster for community-ARI than for inpatient-ARI. No such patterns were observed for non-influenza respiratory virus infections. PathChip added substantially to viruses detected for community-ARI only. Clinical case definitions discriminated influenza from other mild-ARI but performed poorly for severe-ARI and for older participants. Rational strategies for diagnosis and surveillance of influenza and other respiratory virus must acknowledge the differences between ARIs presenting in community and hospital settings.

Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012

INTRODUCTION

The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model.

RESULTS

At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for determining their effect on the seasonality of influenza and RSV.

Distribution and Trends of Human Parainfluenza Viruses in Hospitalised Children

OBJECTIVE

To study the distribution of Human Parainfluenza viruses (HPIV) 1-4 and their trends in children ≤5 y of age, hospitalised at a tertiary care centre, Jaipur and co-infection with other respiratory viruses.

METHODS

Nasopharyngeal aspirate and throat swabs were collected and processed for extraction of nucleic acid using automated extraction system and real time RT-PCR was performed using primers and probes specific to HPIV 1-4 and other respiratory viruses on 743 samples.

RESULTS

Total positivity for Parainfluenza viruses 1-4 was found to be 69/743 (9.28 %), of which 50/533 (9.38 %) were boys and 19/210 (9.05 %) girls. Predominance of HPIV- 3 was observed [41/743 (5.52%)] followed by HPIV-1 in 13/743 (1.75%), HPIV-4 in 10/743 (1.34%) and HPIV-2 in 5/743 (0.67%) patients. Maximum positivity was observed in age group 25-36 mo (12.98%) followed by 13-24 mo group (11.96%). HPIVs were found to be circulating round the year and each year. Co-infections with other respiratory viruses were observed in 22/69 (31.88%) of HPIV positive patients.

CONCLUSIONS

All the four types of HPIV were found to be circulating in the index population during all the three years, predominantly during post monsoon and winter seasons. HPIV vaccination should be targeted for all types.

Clinical characteristics and viral load of respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus in children hospitaled for acute lower respiratory tract infection

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus (HMPV) are two common viral pathogens in acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRTI). However, the association of viral load with clinical characteristics is not well‐defined in ALRTI. To explore the correlation between viral load and clinical characteristics of RSV and HMPV in children hospitalized for ALRTI in Lanzhou, China. Three hundred and eighty‐seven children hospitalized for ALRTI were enrolled. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPAs) were sampled from each children. Real‐time PCR was used to screen RSV, HMPV, and twelve additional respiratory viruses. Bronchiolitis was the leading diagnoses both in RSV and HMPV positive patients. A significantly greater frequency of wheezing (52% vs. 33.52%, P = 0.000) was noted in RSV positive and negative patients. The RSV viral load was significant higher in children aged <1 year (P = 0.003), children without fever and wheezing (P = 0.015 and P = 0.000), days of illness <14 days (P = 0.002), children with bronchiolitis (P = 0.012) and children with RSV single infections (P = 0.000). No difference was found in the clinical features of HMPV positive and negative patients. The HMPV viral load had no correlation with any clinical characteristics. The incidences of severe disease were similar between single infection and coinfection for the two viruses (RSV, P = 0.221; HMPV, P = 0.764) and there has no statistical significance between severity and viral load (P = 0.166 and P = 0.721). Bronchiolitis is the most common disease caused by RSV and HMPV. High viral load or co‐infection may be associated with some symptoms but neither has a significant impact on disease severity for the two viruses. J. Med. Virol. 89:589–597, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mechanisms of replacement of circulating viruses by seasonal and pandemic influenza A viruses

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza causes annual epidemics by the accumulation of antigenic changes. Pandemic influenza occurs through a major antigenic change of the influenza A virus, which can originate from other hosts. Although new antigenic variants of the influenza A virus replace formerly circulating seasonal and pandemic viruses, replacement mechanisms remain poorly understood.

METHODS

A stochastic individual-based SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model with two viral strains (formerly circulating old strain and newly emerged strain) was developed for simulations to elucidate the replacement mechanisms.

RESULTS

Factors and conditions of virus and host populations affecting the replacement were identified. Replacement is more likely to occur in tropical regions than temperate regions. The magnitude of the ongoing epidemic by the old strain, herd immunity against the old strain, and timing of appearance of the new strain are not that important for replacement. It is probable that the frequency of replacement by a pandemic virus is higher than a seasonal virus because of the high initial susceptibility and high basic reproductive number of the pandemic virus.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study on replacement mechanisms could lead to a better understanding of virus transmission dynamics and may possibly be helpful in establishing an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza.

Parainfluenza Virus Infection

Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) are single-stranded, enveloped RNA viruses of the Paramyoviridaie family. There are four serotypes which cause respiratory illnesses in children and adults. HPIVs bind and replicate in the ciliated epithelial cells of the upper and lower respiratory tract and the extent of the infection correlates with the location involved. Seasonal HPIV epidemics result in a significant burden of disease in children and account for 40% of pediatric hospitalizations for lower respiratory tract illnesses (LRTIs) and 75% of croup cases. Parainfluenza viruses are associated with a wide spectrum of illnesses which include otitis media, pharyngitis, conjunctivitis, croup, tracheobronchitis, and pneumonia. Uncommon respiratory manifestations include apnea, bradycardia, parotitis, and respiratory distress syndrome and rarely disseminated infection. Immunity resulting from disease in childhood is incomplete and reinfection with HPIV accounts for 15% of respiratory illnesses in adults. Severe disease and fatal pneumonia may occur in elderly and immunocompromised adults. HPIV pneumonia in recipients of hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) is associated with 50% acute mortality and 75% mortality at 6 months. Though sensitive molecular diagnostics are available to rapidly diagnose HPIV infection, effective antiviral therapies are not available. Currently, treatment for HPIV infection is supportive with the exception of croup where the use of corticosteroids has been found to be beneficial. Several novel drugs including DAS181 appear promising in efforts to treat severe disease in immunocompromised patients, and vaccines to decrease the burden of disease in young children are in development.

Phylodynamics of influenza A(H3N2) in South America, 1999-2012

The limited influenza A(H3N2) genetic data available from the Southern Hemisphere (particularly from Africa and Latin America), constrains the accurate reconstruction of viral dissemination dynamics within those regions. Our objective was to describe the spatial dissemination dynamics of influenza A(H3N2) within South America. A total of 469 sequences of the HA1 portion of the hemagglutinin gene (HA) from influenza A(H3N2) viruses sampled in temperate and tropical South American countries between 1999 and 2012 were combined with available contemporary sequences from Australia, Hong Kong, United Kingdom and the United States. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that influenza A(H3N2) sequences from South America were highly intermixed with sequences from other geographical regions, although a clear geographic virus population structure was detected globally. We identified 14 clades mostly (≥80%) composed of influenza sequences from South American countries. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses of those clades support a significant role of both temperate and tropical regions in the introduction and dissemination of new influenza A(H3N2) strains within South America and identify an intensive bidirectional viral exchange between different geographical areas. These findings indicate that seasonal influenza A(H3N2) epidemics in South America are seeded by both the continuous importation of viral variants from other geographic regions and the short-term persistence of local lineages. This study also supports a complex metapopulation model of influenza A(H3N2) dissemination in South America, with no preferential direction in viral movement between temperate and tropical regions.

Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes respiratory illness in young children and is most commonly associated with bronchiolitis. RSV typically occurs as annual or biennial winter epidemics in temperate regions, with less pronounced seasonality in the tropics. We sought to characterise and compare the seasonality of RSV and bronchiolitis in temperate and tropical Western Australia. We examined over 13 years of RSV laboratory identifications and bronchiolitis hospitalisations in children, using an extensive linked dataset from Western Australia. We applied mathematical time series analyses to identify the dominant seasonal cycle, and changes in epidemic size and timing over this period. Both the RSV and bronchiolitis data showed clear winter epidemic peaks in July or August in the southern Western Australia regions, but less identifiable seasonality in the northern regions. Use of complex demodulation proved very effective at comparing disease epidemics. The timing of RSV and bronchiolitis epidemics coincided well, but the size of the epidemics differed, with more consistent peak sizes for bronchiolitis than for RSV. Our results show that bronchiolitis hospitalisations are a reasonable proxy for the timing of RSV detections, but may not fully capture the magnitude of RSV epidemics.

Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the main cause of lower respiratory tract infections in children. Whilst highly seasonal, RSV dynamics can have either one-year (annual) or two-year (biennial) cycles. Furthermore, some countries show a 'delayed biennial' pattern, where the epidemic peak in low incidence years is delayed. We develop a compartmental model for RSV infection, driven by a seasonal forcing function, and conduct parameter space and bifurcation analyses to document parameter ranges that give rise to these different seasonal patterns. The model is sensitive to the birth rate, transmission rate, and seasonality parameters, and can replicate RSV dynamics observed in different countries. The seasonality parameter must exceed a threshold for the model to produce biennial cycles. Intermediate values of the birth rate produce the greatest delay in these biennial cycles, while the model reverts to annual cycles if the duration of immunity is too short. Finally, the existence of period doubling and period halving bifurcations suggests robust model dynamics, in agreement with the known regularity of RSV outbreaks. These findings help explain observed RSV data, such as regular biennial dynamics in Western Australia, and delayed biennial dynamics in Finland. From a public health perspective, our findings provide insight into the drivers of RSV transmission, and a foundation for exploring RSV interventions.

Influenza-like illness in an urban community of Salvador, Brazil: incidence, seasonality and risk factors

BACKGROUND

Our understanding of the epidemiology of influenza is limited in tropical regions, which in turn has hampered identifying optimal region-specific policy to diminish disease burden. Influenza-like illness (ILI) is a clinical diagnosis that can be used as a surrogate for influenza. This study aimed to define the incidence and seasonality of ILI and to assess its association with climatic variables and school calendar in an urban community in the tropical region of Salvador, Brazil.

METHODS

Between 2009 and 2013, we conducted enhanced community-based surveillance for acute febrile illnesses (AFI) among patients ≥ 5 years of age in a slum community emergency unit in Salvador, Brazil. ILI was defined as a measured temperature of ≥ 37.8 °C or reported fever in a patient with cough or sore throat for ≤ 7 days, and negative test results for dengue and leptospirosis. Seasonality was analyzed with a harmonic regression model. Negative binomial regression models were used to correlate ILI incidence with rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and the number of days per month that schools were in session while controlling for seasonality.

RESULTS

There were 2,651 (45.6% of 5,817 AFI patients) ILI cases with a mean annual incidence of 60 cases/1,000 population (95% CI 58-62). Risk of ILI was highest among 5-9 year olds with an annual incidence of 105 cases/1,000 population in 2009. ILI had a clear seasonal pattern with peaks between the 35-40th week of the year. ILI peaks were higher and earlier in 5-9 year olds compared with > 19 year olds. No association was seen between ILI and precipitation, relative humidity or temperature. There was a significant association between the incidence of ILI in children 5-9 years of age and number of scheduled school days per month.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a significant burden of ILI with distinct seasonality in the Brazilian tropics and highest rates among young school-age children. Seasonal peaks of ILI in children 5-9 years of age were positively associated with the number of school days, indicating that children may play a role in the timing of seasonal influenza transmission.

Influenza infection in human host: challenges in making a better influenza vaccine

Influenza is a ubiquitous infection with a spectrum ranging from mild to severe. The mystery regarding such variability in the clinical spectrum has not been fully unravelled, although a role for the complex interplay among virus characteristics, host immune response and environmental factors has been suggested. Antivirals and current vaccines have a limited role in prophylaxis and treatment because they primarily target surface glycoproteins which undergo antigenic/genetic changes under host immune pressure. Targeting conserved internal proteins could lead the way to a universal vaccine which can be used against various types/subtypes. However, this is on the distant horizon, so in the meantime, developing improved vaccines should be given high priority. In this review, we discuss where the current influenza research stands in terms of vaccines, adjuvants, and how we can better predict the vaccine strains for upcoming influenza seasons by understanding complex phenomena which drive the continuous antigenic evolution.

Clinical differences between respiratory viral and bacterial mono- and dual pathogen detected among Singapore military servicemen with febrile respiratory illness

Background

Although it is known that febrile respiratory illnesses (FRI) may be caused by multiple respiratory pathogens, there are no population-level studies describing its impact on clinical disease.

Methods

Between May 2009 and October 2012, 7733 FRI patients and controls in the Singapore military had clinical data and nasal wash samples collected prospectively and sent for PCR testing. Patients with one pathogen detected (mono-pathogen) were compared with those with two pathogens (dual pathogen) for differences in basic demographics and clinical presentation.

Results

In total, 45.8% had one pathogen detected, 20.2% had two pathogens detected, 30.9% had no pathogens detected, and 3.1% had more than two pathogens. Multiple pathogens were associated with recruits, those with asthma and non-smokers. Influenza A (80.0%), influenza B (73.0%) and mycoplasma (70.6%) were most commonly associated with mono-infections, while adenovirus was most commonly associated with dual infections (62.9%). Influenza A paired with S. pneumoniae had higher proportions of chills and rigors than their respective mono-pathogens (P = 0.03, P = 0.009). H. influenzae paired with either enterovirus or parainfluenzae had higher proportions of cough with phlegm than their respective mono-pathogens. Although there were observed differences in mean proportions of body temperature, nasal symptoms, sore throat, body aches and joint pains between viral and bacterial mono-pathogens, there were few differences between distinct dual-pathogen pairs and their respective mono-pathogen counterparts.

Conclusion

A substantial number of FRI patients have multiple pathogens detected. Observed clinical differences between patients of dual pathogen and mono-pathogen indicate the likely presence of complex microbial interactions between the various pathogens.

Local persistence and global dissemination play a significant role in the circulation of influenza B viruses in Leyte Island, Philippines

The local and global transmission dynamics of influenza B virus is not completely understood mainly because of limited epidemiological and sequence data for influenza B virus. Here we report epidemiological and molecular characteristics of influenza B viruses from 2010 to 2013 in Leyte Island, Philippines. Phylogenetic analyses showed global dissemination of the virus among both neighboring and distant areas. The analyses also suggest that southeast Asia is not a distributor of influenza B virus and can introduce the virus from other areas. Furthermore, we found evidence on the local persistence of the virus over years in the Philippines. Taken together, both local persistence and global dissemination play a significant role in the circulation of influenza B virus.

Respiratory Tract Infection and Risk of Hospitalization in Children with Congenital Heart Defects During Season and Off-Season: A Swedish National Study

Respiratory tract infections (RTI) are common among young children, and congenital heart defect (CHD) is a risk factor for severe illness and hospitalization. This study aims to assess the relative risk of hospitalization due to RTI in winter and summer seasons for different types of CHD. All children born in Sweden and under the age of two, in 2006-2011, were included. Heart defects were grouped according to type. Hospitalization rates for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection and RTI in general were retrieved from the national inpatient registry. The relative risk of hospitalization was calculated by comparing each subgroup to other types of CHD and otherwise healthy children. The relative risk of hospitalization was increased for all CHD subgroups, and there was a greater increase in risk in summer for the most severe CHD. This included RSV infection, as well as RTI in general. The risk of hospitalization due to RTI is greater for CHD children. Prophylactic treatment with palivizumab, given to prevent severe RSV illness, is only recommended during winter. We argue that information to healthcare staff and parents should include how the risk of severe infectious respiratory tract illnesses, RSV and others, is present all year round for children with CHD.

Humidity: A review and primer on atmospheric moisture and human health

Research examining associations between weather and human health frequently includes the effects of atmospheric humidity. A large number of humidity variables have been developed for numerous purposes, but little guidance is available to health researchers regarding appropriate variable selection. We examine a suite of commonly used humidity variables and summarize both the medical and biometeorological literature on associations between humidity and human health. As an example of the importance of humidity variable selection, we correlate numerous hourly humidity variables to daily respiratory syncytial virus isolates in Singapore from 1992 to 1994. Most water-vapor mass based variables (specific humidity, absolute humidity, mixing ratio, dewpoint temperature, vapor pressure) exhibit comparable correlations. Variables that include a thermal component (relative humidity, dewpoint depression, saturation vapor pressure) exhibit strong diurnality and seasonality. Humidity variable selection must be dictated by the underlying research question. Despite being the most commonly used humidity variable, relative humidity should be used sparingly and avoided in cases when the proximity to saturation is not medically relevant. Care must be taken in averaging certain humidity variables daily or seasonally to avoid statistical biasing associated with variables that are inherently diurnal through their relationship to temperature.

Respiratory syncytial virus activity and climate parameters during a 12-year period

The epidemic pattern of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection during long periods and the factors that determine seasonality are not well studied. In order to correlate the RSV epidemic activity with climate parameters, we conducted a retrospective study of children (0-14 year) who were hospitalized because of respiratory tract infection and had an RSV test performed in the major tertiary pediatric hospital of Greece during a 12-year period (2002-2013). Daily data regarding temperature and humidity were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service. A total of 2030/7516 (27%) children were tested positive for RSV infection. Among RSV positive children 1945/2030 (95.8%) were infants <1 year. A peak of RSV activity was measured in years 2002, 2003, and 2006 (>35% positive). The RSV season in our area spanned from December to April, with higher incidence during January through March. The peak monthly RSV incidence was observed during February with mean temperature 10.34 °C and mean relative humidity 69.16%. Regarding climate conditions, a statistically significant positive correlation was found between monthly RSV activity and mean monthly relative humidity (rho = 0.66, P-value = 0.02), whereas a negative correlation was found with mean monthly temperature (rho = -0.81, P-value = 0.002). However, in the multivariable analysis, only the effect of mean monthly temperature remained statistically significant (IRR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.80). Further understanding of RSV seasonality in different geographic areas would be important in order to timely implement preventing strategies with immunoprophylaxis or future RSV vaccines.

Modeling Seasonal Influenza Transmission and Its Association with Climate Factors in Thailand Using Time-Series and ARIMAX Analyses

Influenza is a worldwide respiratory infectious disease that easily spreads from one person to another. Previous research has found that the influenza transmission process is often associated with climate variables. In this study, we used autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots to determine the appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for influenza transmission in the central and southern regions of Thailand. The relationships between reported influenza cases and the climate data, such as the amount of rainfall, average temperature, average maximum relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity, were evaluated using cross-correlation function. Based on the available data of suspected influenza cases and climate variables, the most appropriate ARIMA(X) model for each region was obtained. We found that the average temperature correlated with influenza cases in both central and southern regions, but average minimum relative humidity played an important role only in the southern region. The ARIMAX model that includes the average temperature with a 4-month lag and the minimum relative humidity with a 2-month lag is the appropriate model for the central region, whereas including the minimum relative humidity with a 4-month lag results in the best model for the southern region.

Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections

Influenza A and B, and many unrelated viruses including rhinovirus, RSV, adenovirus, metapneumovirus and coronavirus share the same seasonality, since these viral acute respiratory tract infections (vARIs) are much more common in winter than summer. Unfortunately, early investigations that used recycled “pedigree” virus strains seem to have led microbiologists to dismiss the common folk belief that vARIs often follow chilling. Today, incontrovertible evidence shows that ambient temperature dips and host chilling increase the incidence and severity of vARIs. This review considers four possible mechanisms, M1 - 4, that can explain this link: (M1) increased crowding in winter may enhance viral transmission; (M2) lower temperatures may increase the stability of virions outside the body; (M3) chilling may increase host susceptibility; (M4) lower temperatures or host chilling may activate dormant virions. There is little evidence for M1 or M2, which are incompatible with tropical observations. Epidemiological anomalies such as the repeated simultaneous arrival of vARIs over wide geographical areas, the rapid cessation of influenza epidemics, and the low attack rate of influenza within families are compatible with M4, but not M3 (in its simple form). M4 seems to be the main driver of seasonality, but M3 may also play an important role.

Associations between Meteorological Parameters and Influenza Activity in Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and Israeli Districts

BACKGROUND

Studies in the literature have indicated that the timing of seasonal influenza epidemic varies across latitude, suggesting the involvement of meteorological and environmental conditions in the transmission of influenza. In this study, we investigated the link between meteorological parameters and influenza activity in 9 sub-national areas with temperate and subtropical climates: Berlin (Germany), Ljubljana (Slovenia), Castile and León (Spain) and all 6 districts in Israel.

METHODS

We estimated weekly influenza-associated influenza-like-illness (ILI) or Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) incidence to represent influenza activity using data from each country's sentinel surveillance during 2000-2011 (Spain) and 2006-2011 (all others). Meteorological data was obtained from ground stations, satellite and assimilated data. Two generalized additive models (GAM) were developed, with one using specific humidity as a covariate and another using minimum temperature. Precipitation and solar radiation were included as additional covariates in both models. The models were adjusted for previous weeks' influenza activity, and were trained separately for each study location.

RESULTS

Influenza activity was inversely associated (p<0.05) with specific humidity in all locations. Minimum temperature was inversely associated with influenza in all 3 temperate locations, but not in all subtropical locations. Inverse associations between influenza and solar radiation were found in most locations. Associations with precipitation were location-dependent and inconclusive. We used the models to estimate influenza activity a week ahead for the 2010/2011 period which was not used in training the models. With exception of Ljubljana and Israel's Haifa District, the models could closely follow the observed data especially during the start and the end of epidemic period. In these locations, correlation coefficients between the observed and estimated ranged between 0.55 to 0.91and the model-estimated influenza peaks were within 3 weeks from the observations.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated the significant link between specific humidity and influenza activity across temperate and subtropical climates, and that inclusion of meteorological parameters in the surveillance system may further our understanding of influenza transmission patterns.

Influenza activity in Thailand and occurrence in different climates

This study observed influenza activity between June 2009 and July 2014 in Thailand, a country in the Northern hemisphere with a tropical climate, and compared the results to activity in the United States (US) and Australia, which represent temperate climates in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively. From Thailand, a total of 17,416 specimens were collected from patients exhibiting influenza-like illnesses and subjected to real-time PCR for the detection of influenza viruses. For comparison, laboratory confirmations of influenza originating from the US and Australia were obtained from the US CDC's FluView surveillance reports and the Australian Government's Department of Health and Ageing websites. We found that, generally, the influenza season in Thailand starts with the rainy season. This observation of influenza's annual incidence pattern provides a better understanding of its occurrence, suggesting that vaccination campaigns should be started before the influenza season begins in order to reduce transmission.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of acute respiratory virus infections in Vietnamese children

Information about viral acute respiratory infections (ARIs) is essential for prevention, diagnosis and treatment, but it is limited in tropical developing countries. This study described the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of ARIs in children hospitalized in Vietnam. Nasopharyngeal samples were collected from children with ARIs at Ho Chi Minh City Children's Hospital 2 between April 2010 and May 2011 in order to detect respiratory viruses by polymerase chain reaction. Viruses were found in 64% of 1082 patients, with 12% being co-infections. The leading detected viruses were human rhinovirus (HRV; 30%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV; 23·8%), and human bocavirus (HBoV; 7·2%). HRV was detected all year round, while RSV epidemics occurred mainly in the rainy season. Influenza A (FluA) was found in both seasons. The other viruses were predominant in the dry season. HRV was identified in children of all age groups. RSV, parainfluenza virus (PIV) 1, PIV3 and HBoV, and FluA were detected predominantly in children aged 24 months, respectively. Significant associations were found between PIV1 with croup (P < 0·005) and RSV with bronchiolitis (P < 0·005). HBoV and HRV were associated with hypoxia (P < 0·05) and RSV with retraction (P < 0·05). HRV, RSV, and HBoV were detected most frequently and they may increase the severity of ARIs in children.

Do pollution and climate influence respiratory tract infections in children?

To review if pollution and climate changes can influence respiratory tract infections in children.

DATA SOURCE

Articles published on the subject in PubMed, SciELO, Bireme, EBSCO and UpTodate were reviewed. The following inclusion criteria were considered: scientific papers between 2002 and 2012, study design, the pediatric population, reference documents such as the CETESB and World Health Organization Summary of the data: We analyzed research that correlated respiratory viruses and climate and/or pollution changes. Respiratory syncytial virus has been the virus related most to changes in climate and humidity. Other "old and new" respiratory viruses such as Human Bocavirus, Metapneumovirus, Parechovirus and Parainfuenza would need to be investigated owing to their clinical importance. Although much has been studied with regard to the relationship between climate change and public health, specific studies about its influence on children's health remain scarce.

Viral aetiology of acute respiratory infections among children and associated meteorological factors in southern China

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are common in children and mostly caused by viruses, but the significance of the detection of multiple viruses in ARIs is unclear. This study investigated 14 respiratory viruses in ARIs among children and associated meteorological factors in Shantou, southern China.

METHODS

Paired nasal/throat-flocked swabs collected from 1,074 children with ARIs, who visited outpatient walk-in clinics in a tertiary hospital between December 2010 and November 2011, were examined for fourteen respiratory viruses--influenza viruses (FluA, FluB), respiratory syncytial viruses (RSV A and B), human coronaviruses (hCoV: 229E, OC43, HKU1, NL63), human metapneumoviruses (hMPV A and B), parainfluenza viruses (PIV1-4), human rhinoviruses (HRV A, B, C), enteroviruses (EV), adenoviruses (ADV), human bocavirus (hBoV), and human parechoviruses (hPeV)--by multiplex real-time PCR.

RESULTS

We identified at least one virus in 82.3% (884/1,074) and multiple viruses in 38.6% (415/1,074) of patients. EV and HRV were the most frequently detected single viruses (42.3%, 374/884 and 39.9%, 353/884 respectively) and co-detected pair (23.1%, 96/415). Overlapping seasonal trends of viruses were recorded over the year, with dual peaks for EV and single peaks for the others. By logistic regression analysis, EV was positively associated with the average temperature and humidity, hCoV, and PIV4, but negatively with HRV, PIV3, and hBoV. HRV was inversely associated with EV and PIV3.

CONCLUSIONS

This study reports high viral detection and co-detection rates in pediatric ARI cases mainly due to EV and HRV. Many viruses circulated throughout the year with similar seasonal trends in association with temperature, humidity, and wind velocity. Statistically significant associations were present among the viruses. Understanding the polyviral etiology and viral interactions in the cases with multiple viruses warrants further studies.

Rhinitis in the first 18 months of life: exploring the role of respiratory viruses

BACKGROUND

Rhinitis is common in early childhood, but allergic rhinitis is considered a later manifestation of the atopic march. This study aimed to evaluate rhinitis (allergic and non-allergic) in the first 18 months of life, its link with other atopic manifestations and the role of respiratory viruses.

METHODS

Subjects (n = 1237) of the Singapore GUSTO birth cohort were followed up quarterly until 18 months of age with questionnaires to screen for rhinitis symptoms lasting at least 2 wk and with monthly calls to positive subjects to detect prolonged/recurrent rhinitis symptoms (total duration ≥ 4 wk). Anterior nasal swabbing for molecular-based virus detection was conducted during these visits and near (within a month) rhinitis episodes. Skin prick testing to common environmental and food allergens was conducted at the 18 month visit.

RESULTS

Prolonged/recurrent rhinitis was significantly associated with history of parental atopy (mother: aOR = 2.17; father: aOR = 1.82) and atopic comorbidities of eczema (aOR = 2.53) and wheeze (aOR = 4.63) (p < 0.05), though not with allergen sensitization. Although the frequency of nasal respiratory virus detection during scheduled quarterly visits did not differ between prolonged/recurrent rhinitis and matched controls (p > 0.05), virus detection was higher in swabs obtained within a month following rhinitis episodes in prolonged/recurrent rhinitis subjects compared with scheduled visits (adjusted p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the duration of rhinitis symptoms, this study defined a subset of early childhood rhinitis which was associated with atopic predisposition and comorbidities. Persistent respiratory viral shedding may contribute to the symptomatology. Whether this entity is a precursor of subsequent childhood allergic rhinitis will require longer follow-up.

Relationship between meteorological conditions and respiratory syncytial virus in a tropical country

This study aimed to determine which meteorological conditions are associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) isolates in a population of children hospitalized with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in Bogota, Colombia. In an analytical cross-sectional study, links were examined between the number of monthly RSV infections and monthly average climatic variation (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, solar radiation) between 1 January 2010 and 30 April 2011 in a population of hospitalized children aged <3 years with ALRI caused by RSV. Out of a total of 1548 children included in the study (mean age 9·2 ± 8·5 months), 1194 (77·1%) presented RSV infection during the 3-month period from March to May. In the multivariate analysis, after controlling for wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation, monthly average temperature [incident rate ratio (IRR) 3·14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·56-6·30, P = 0·001] and rainfall (IRR 1·008, 95% CI 1·00-1·01, P = 0·048) were independently associated with the monthly number of RSV infections. In conclusion, in Bogota, a tropical Latin American city, average temperature and rainfall are the meteorological variables most strongly associated with RSV isolation in children hospitalized with ALRI in the city.

Environmental drivers of the spatiotemporal dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in the United States

Epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are known to occur in wintertime in temperate countries including the United States, but there is a limited understanding of the importance of climatic drivers in determining the seasonality of RSV. In the United States, RSV activity is highly spatially structured, with seasonal peaks beginning in Florida in November through December and ending in the upper Midwest in February-March, and prolonged disease activity in the southeastern US. Using data on both age-specific hospitalizations and laboratory reports of RSV in the US, and employing a combination of statistical and mechanistic epidemic modeling, we examined the association between environmental variables and state-specific measures of RSV seasonality. Temperature, vapor pressure, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) were significantly associated with the timing of RSV activity across states in univariate exploratory analyses. The amplitude and timing of seasonality in the transmission rate was significantly correlated with seasonal fluctuations in PET, and negatively correlated with mean vapor pressure, minimum temperature, and precipitation. States with low mean vapor pressure and the largest seasonal variation in PET tended to experience biennial patterns of RSV activity, with alternating years of “early-big” and “late-small” epidemics. Our model for the transmission dynamics of RSV was able to replicate these biennial transitions at higher amplitudes of seasonality in the transmission rate. This successfully connects environmental drivers to the epidemic dynamics of RSV; however, it does not fully explain why RSV activity begins in Florida, one of the warmest states, when RSV is a winter-seasonal pathogen. Understanding and predicting the seasonality of RSV is essential in determining the optimal timing of immunoprophylaxis.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes annual outbreaks of respiratory disease every winter in temperate climates, which can be severe particularly among infants. In the United States, RSV activity begins each autumn in Florida and appears to spread from the southeast to the northwest. Using data on hospitalizations and laboratory tests for RSV, we show that the timing of epidemics is associated with a variety of climatic factors, including temperature, vapor pressure, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Furthermore, using a dynamic model, we show that seasonal variation in the transmission rate of RSV can be correlated with the amplitude and timing of variation in PET, which is a measure of demand for water from the atmosphere. States with colder, drier weather and a large seasonal swing in PET tended to experience an alternating pattern of “early-big” RSV epidemics one year followed by a “late-small” epidemic the next year, which our model was able to reproduce based on the interaction between susceptible and infectious individuals. However, we cannot fully explain why epidemics begin in Florida. Being able to understand and predict the timing of RSV activity is important for optimizing the delivery of immunoprophylaxis to high-risk individuals.

Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: a Bayesian spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence.

METHODS

A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February-14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight.

RESULTS

High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22-1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47-5.56).

CONCLUSION

There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Comparison of severely ill patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods in Singapore

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Singapore is a tropical country with influenza seasons occurring bi-annually. We compared the profile of severely ill patients with laboratory confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in Singapore during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods, and studied their risk factors associated with mortality.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Three periods were defined for this study; pandemic period from 18 June to 29 August 2009, early post-pandemic period from 30 August 2009 to 12 February 2010, and late post-pandemic period from 13 February to 10 August 2010.

RESULTS

A total of 172 severely ill patients were admitted to hospitals from 18 June 2009 to 10 August 2010, of whom 23.8% died. The median age in the late post-pandemic period was significantly older than that in the early post-pandemic period (52 years versus 35 years, P=0.02). The median age of patients who died was significantly older than those who survived (52 years versus 44 years, P<0.01). The median length of stay under intensive care in the late post-pandemic period was twice that in the early post-pandemic (6 days versus 3 days, P=0.045). The proportion who died in the late post-pandemic period was more than 2.5 times that in the early post-pandemic period (29.8% versus 11.1%, P=0.043).

CONCLUSIONS

Severely ill patients were of older age in the late post-pandemic period. Older age was also significantly associated with mortality. It is important to maintain heightened vigilance and continue the surveillance of severely ill patients with influenza post-pandemic, so that patients with suspected infections could be promptly identified for early diagnosis and treatment.

The importance of the local environment in the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus

The role of the environment in the spread of respiratory infections is poorly understood, and consequently probably underappreciated. To improve our understanding of the environmental drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission, we examined RSV seasonality in two settings with unusual seasonal patterns: The Gambia (where RSV epidemics occur at different times of the year) and Southeast Florida (where RSV seasonality differs from the rest of mainland USA). We used published data to correlate the seasonality of RSV with rainfall and child nutrition in the Gambia, and with rainfall and temperature in Florida. In the Gambia, RSV incidence was more strongly and more consistently correlated with child nutrition (r = -0.73 [95%CI -0.90 to -0.38]) than with rainfall (r = 0.37 [95%CI 0.20 to 0.52]). In Southeast Florida RSV incidence was strongly correlated with rainfall two months previously (r = 0.65 [95%CI 0.40 to 0.81]) compared to North Florida where RSV incidence was strongly correlated with temperature (r = -0.75 [95%CI -0.87 to -0.56]). We propose that nutrition is the dominant environmental driver of RSV seasonality in the Gambia, while rainfall is the dominant driver of RSV seasonality in Southeast Florida. This reinforces the importance of an ecological scale understanding of disease transmission: only with such an evidence base can setting-specific recommendations be made for public health interventions that are targeted for maximum efficacy.

A novel six consecutive monthly doses of palivizumab prophylaxis protocol for the prevention of respiratory syncytial virus infection in high-risk preterm infants in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulates year round in Taiwan. A novel six consecutive monthly doses of palivizumab for RSV prevention protocol has been approved for high risk preterm infants since December 2010. This study aimed to determine the clinical effectiveness and safety of this novel protocol for the prevention of RSV infection.

METHODS

From April 2011 to March 2013, we enrolled infants born at ≤28 weeks gestation and infants born at ≤35 weeks gestation with chronic lung disease (CLD) who received palivizumab prophylaxis as study group and followed up for 12 months. Historic control, those who were born and followed up between July 2000 and June 2008, were retrieved for propensity score matching. Primary endpoint was RSV-related hospitalization, and secondary endpoints included the length of hospital stay and intensive care unit (ICU) care.

RESULTS

We enrolled 127 infants (108 infants born at ≤28 weeks and 19 infants born at 29-35 weeks with CLD). They completed 6-dose palivizumab as scheduled. Among the study group, the RSV-related hospitalizations were 2 (1.6%) within 6 months and 5 (3.9%) within 12 months after discharge. We matched 127 infants in the control group with 127 infants in the study group by propensity score matching. The reduction of RSV-related hospitalization rates were 86% (10.2% vs 1.6%, p = 0.002) within 6 months after discharge and 78% (15.7% vs 3.9%, p = 0.004) within 12 months after discharge. Compared to the control group, the rate of ICU care significantly decreased from 7.1% to 0.8% (p = 0.024) within 6 months after discharge and from 7.9% to 0.8% (p = 0.014) within 12 months after discharge. Adverse events were recorded in 6.4% injections.

CONCLUSIONS

Six monthly intramuscular administration of palivizumab is effective for prevention of RSV hospitalization in regions with no single seasonal peak of RSV infection such as Taiwan.