Late Pleistocene climate drivers of early human migration

Genomic patterns in the widespread Eurasian lynx shaped by Late Quaternary climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts

Disentangling the contribution of long-term evolutionary processes and recent anthropogenic impacts to current genetic patterns of wildlife species is key to assessing genetic risks and designing conservation strategies. Here, we used 80 whole nuclear genomes and 96 mitogenomes from populations of the Eurasian lynx covering a range of conservation statuses, climatic zones and subspecies across Eurasia to infer the demographic history, reconstruct genetic patterns, and discuss the influence of long-term isolation and/or more recent human-driven changes. Our results show that Eurasian lynx populations shared a common history until 100,000 years ago, when Asian and European populations started to diverge and both entered a period of continuous and widespread decline, with western populations, except Kirov, maintaining lower effective sizes than eastern populations. Population declines and increased isolation in more recent times probably drove the genetic differentiation between geographically and ecologically close westernmost European populations. By contrast, and despite the wide range of habitats covered, populations are quite homogeneous genetically across the Asian range, showing a pattern of isolation by distance and providing little genetic support for the several proposed subspecies. Mitogenomic and nuclear divergences and population declines starting during the Late Pleistocene can be mostly attributed to climatic fluctuations and early human influence, but the widespread and sustained decline since the Holocene is more probably the consequence of anthropogenic impacts which intensified in recent centuries, especially in western Europe. Genetic erosion in isolated European populations and lack of evidence for long-term isolation argue for the restoration of lost population connectivity.

Climate variability in early expansions of Homo sapiens in light of the new record of micromammals in Misliya Cave, Israel

In this study, we provide the first taphonomic and taxonomic descriptions of the micromammals from Misliya Cave, where recently a Homo sapiens hemimaxilla has been reported. This finding significantly extends the time frame for the out-of-Africa presence of anatomically modern humans. It also provides an opportunity to reassess variation in early modern human population responses to climate change in the Levantine sequence. Information on species ranking and diversity estimations (Shannon functions) is obtained from quantitative data across 31 Levantine assemblages and investigated in a broad comparative frame using multivariate analyses. Recent models of human-climate interactions in the late Early-Middle Paleolithic of the southern Levant have drawn heavily on on-site associations of human fossils with remains of micromammals. However, there has been little, if any, attempt to examine the long-term picture of how paleocommunities of micromammals responded qualitatively and quantitatively to climatic oscillations of the region by altering their compositional complexity. Consequently, our understanding is vastly limited in regard to the paleoecosystem functions that linked past precipitation shifts to changes in primary producers and consumers or as to the background climatic conditions that allowed for the development of highly nonanalog ancient communities in the region. Although previous studies argued for a correspondence between alternations in H. sapiens and Neanderthal occupations of the Levant and faunal shifts in key biostratigraphic indicator taxa (such as Euro-Siberian Ellobius versus Saharo-Arabian Mastomys and Arvicanthis), our data indicate the likelihood that early H. sapiens populations (Misliya and Qafzeh hominins) persisted through high amplitudes of paleoecological and climatic oscillations. It is unlikely, given these results, that climate functioned as a significant filter of early modern human persistence and genetic interactions with Neanderthals in the Levant.

African climate response to orbital and glacial forcing in 140,000-y simulation with implications for early modern human environments

A climate/vegetation model simulates episodic wetter and drier periods at the 21,000-y precession period in eastern North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Levant over the past 140,000 y. Large orbitally forced wet/dry extremes occur during interglacial time, ∼130 to 80 ka, and conditions between these two extremes prevail during glacial time, ∼70 to 15 ka. Orbital precession causes high seasonality in Northern Hemisphere (NH) insolation at ∼125, 105, and 83 ka, with stronger and northward extended summer monsoon rains in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula and increased winter rains in the Mediterranean Basin. The combined effects of these two seasonally distinct rainfall regimes increase vegetation and narrow the width of the Saharan-Arabian desert and semidesert zones. During the opposite phase of the precession cycle (∼115, 95, and 73 ka), NH seasonality is low, and decreased summer insolation and increased winter insolation cause monsoon and storm track rains to decrease and the width of the desert zone to increase. During glacial time (∼70 to 15 ka), forcing from large ice sheets and lowered greenhouse gas concentrations combine to increase winter Mediterranean storm track precipitation; the southward retreat of the northern limit of summer monsoon rains is relatively small, thereby limiting the expansion of deserts. The lowered greenhouse gas concentrations cause the near-equatorial zone to cool and reduce convection, causing drier climate with reduced forest cover. At most locations and times, the simulations agree with environmental observations. These changing regional patterns of climate/vegetation could have influenced the dispersal of early humans through expansions and contractions of well-watered corridors.

Climate-human interaction associated with southeast Australian megafauna extinction patterns

The mechanisms leading to megafauna (>44 kg) extinctions in Late Pleistocene (126,000—12,000 years ago) Australia are highly contested because standard chronological analyses rely on scarce data of varying quality and ignore spatial complexity. Relevant archaeological and palaeontological records are most often also biased by differential preservation resulting in under-representated older events. Chronological analyses have attributed megafaunal extinctions to climate change, humans, or a combination of the two, but rarely consider spatial variation in extinction patterns, initial human appearance trajectories, and palaeoclimate change together. Here we develop a statistical approach to infer spatio-temporal trajectories of megafauna extirpations (local extinctions) and initial human appearance in south-eastern Australia. We identify a combined climate-human effect on regional extirpation patterns suggesting that small, mobile Aboriginal populations potentially needed access to drinkable water to survive arid ecosystems, but were simultaneously constrained by climate-dependent net landscape primary productivity. Thus, the co-drivers of megafauna extirpations were themselves constrained by the spatial distribution of climate-dependent water sources.

Whether Australia’s Pleistocene megafauna extinctions were caused by climate change, humans, or both is debated. Here, the authors infer the spatio-temporal trajectories of regional extinctions and find that water availability mediates the relationship among climate, human migration and megafauna extinctions.

FosSahul 2.0, an updated database for the Late Quaternary fossil records of Sahul

The 2016 version of the FosSahul database compiled non-human vertebrate megafauna fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013 in a standardized format. Its purpose was to create a publicly available, centralized, and comprehensive database for palaeoecological investigations of the continent. Such databases require regular updates and improvements to reflect recent scientific findings. Here we present an updated FosSahul (2.0) containing 11,871 dated non-human vertebrate fossil records from the Late Quaternary published up to 2018. Furthermore, we have extended the information captured in the database to include methodological details and have developed an algorithm to automate the quality-rating process. The algorithm makes the quality-rating more transparent and easier to reproduce, facilitating future database extensions and dissemination. FosSahul has already enabled several palaeoecological analyses, and its updated version will continue to provide a centralized organisation of Sahul's fossil records. As an example of an application of the database, we present the temporal pattern in megafauna genus richness inferred from available data in relation to palaeoclimate indices over the past 180,000 years.

Human origins in a southern African palaeo-wetland and first migrations

Anatomically modern humans originated in Africa around 200 thousand years ago (ka)^1-4. Although some of the oldest skeletal remains suggest an eastern African origin², southern Africa is home to contemporary populations that represent the earliest branch of human genetic phylogeny^5,6. Here we generate, to our knowledge, the largest resource for the poorly represented and deepest-rooting maternal L0 mitochondrial DNA branch (198 new mitogenomes for a total of 1,217 mitogenomes) from contemporary southern Africans and show the geographical isolation of L0d1'2, L0k and L0g KhoeSan descendants south of the Zambezi river in Africa. By establishing mitogenomic timelines, frequencies and dispersals, we show that the L0 lineage emerged within the residual Makgadikgadi-Okavango palaeo-wetland of southern Africa⁷, approximately 200 ka (95% confidence interval, 240-165 ka). Genetic divergence points to a sustained 70,000-year-long existence of the L0 lineage before an out-of-homeland northeast-southwest dispersal between 130 and 110 ka. Palaeo-climate proxy and model data suggest that increased humidity opened green corridors, first to the northeast then to the southwest. Subsequent drying of the homeland corresponds to a sustained effective population size (L0k), whereas wet-dry cycles and probable adaptation to marine foraging allowed the southwestern migrants to achieve population growth (L0d1'2), as supported by extensive south-coastal archaeological evidence^8-10. Taken together, we propose a southern African origin of anatomically modern humans with sustained homeland occupation before the first migrations of people that appear to have been driven by regional climate changes.

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately¹ and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial-interglacial cycles^2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

Complex Nature of Hominin Dispersals: Ecogeographical and Climatic Evidence for Pre-Contact Craniofacial Variation

Coordinate data analysis of ancient crania from the New World reveals complexity in interpretation when addressing ancient population dispersals. The results of this study generally support a geographic patterning for the New World; however, it also revealed a much more complex and multifactorial mechanism shaping craniofacial morphology that should be considered when investigating ecogeographic models for hominin dispersals. We show that craniofacial variation is not the result of a single mechanism but is a much more complex interaction of environmental and microevolutionary forces.

Language, Memory, and Mental Time Travel: An Evolutionary Perspective

Language could not exist without memory, in all its forms: working memory for sequential production and understanding, implicit memory for grammatical rules, semantic memory for knowledge, and episodic memory for communicating personal experience. Episodic memory is part of a more general capacity for mental travel both forward and backward in time, and extending even into fantasy and stories. I argue that the generativity of mental time travel underlies the generativity of language itself, and could be the basis of what Chomsky calls I-language, or universal grammar (UG), a capacity for recursive thought independent of communicative language itself. Whereas Chomsky proposed that I-language evolved in a single step well after the emergence of Homo sapiens, I suggest that generative imagination, extended in space and time, has a long evolutionary history, and that it was the capacity to share internal thoughts, rather than the nature of the thoughts themselves, that more clearly distinguishes humans from other species.

Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul

The timing, context and nature of the first people to enter Sahul is still poorly understood owing to a fragmented archaeological record. However, quantifying the plausible demographic context of this founding population is essential to determine how and why the initial peopling of Sahul occurred. We developed a stochastic, age-structured model using demographic rates from hunter-gatherer societies, and relative carrying capacity hindcasted with LOVECLIM's net primary productivity for northern Sahul. We projected these populations to determine the resilience and minimum sizes required to avoid extinction. A census founding population of between 1,300 and 1,550 individuals was necessary to maintain a quasi-extinction threshold of ≲0.1. This minimum founding population could have arrived at a single point in time, or through multiple voyages of ≥130 people over ~700-900 years. This result shows that substantial population amalgamation in Sunda and Wallacea in Marine Isotope Stages 3-4 provided the conditions for the successful, large-scale and probably planned peopling of Sahul.

Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry

Background: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature but also accelerating the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice. Methods: Literature review. Results: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin and their country of destination or conditions that they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place.Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar. Conclusion: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicabledisease outbreaks.

Out of Africa by spontaneous migration waves

Hominin evolution is characterized by progressive regional differentiation, as well as migration waves, leading to anatomically modern humans that are assumed to have emerged in Africa and spread over the whole world. Why or whether Africa was the source region of modern humans and what caused their spread remains subject of ongoing debate. We present a spatially explicit, stochastic numerical model that includes ongoing mutations, demic diffusion, assortative mating and migration waves. Diffusion and assortative mating alone result in a structured population with relatively homogeneous regions bound by sharp clines. The addition of migration waves results in a power-law distribution of wave areas: for every large wave, many more small waves are expected to occur. This suggests that one or more out-of-Africa migrations would probably have been accompanied by numerous smaller migration waves across the world. The migration waves are considered "spontaneous", as the current model excludes environmental or other extrinsic factors. Large waves preferentially emanate from the central areas of large, compact inhabited areas. During the Pleistocene, Africa was the largest such area most of the time, making Africa the statistically most likely origin of anatomically modern humans, without a need to invoke additional environmental or ecological drivers.

Saharan green corridors and Middle Pleistocene hominin dispersals across the Eastern Desert, Sudan

The Sahara Desert episodically became a space available for hominins in the Pleistocene. Mostly, desert conditions prevailed during the interpluvial periods, which were only periodically interrupted by enhanced precipitation during pluvial or interglacial periods. Responding to Quaternary climatic changes, hominin dispersal was channeled through vegetated corridors. This manuscript introduces a recently discovered group of Acheulean and Middle Stone Age sites far from the Nile Valley in the Eastern Desert (Sudan), referred to as Eastern Desert Atbara River (EDAR). The ∼5 m stratigraphy of the area is divided into three units (Units I-III) bounded by erosion surfaces. Each contains archaeological horizons. The EDAR area has rich surface sites with Acheulean horizons under the surface, singular finds of hand-axes within stratigraphic context in exposures, and large Acheulean sites partly exposed and destroyed by the gold mining activity. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of Acheulean and MSA horizons from the EDAR 135 site indicates that the sedimentary deposits with stone artifacts were formed during the Middle Pleistocene between Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 7 (pluvial) and 6 (interpluvial). Based on the OSL dating from the top of Unit IB, Acheulean artifact-bearing sedimentary deposits from overlying Unit IIA are younger than ca. 231 ka. Unit IA is the oldest Acheulean horizon in the EDAR area, not yet dated but definitively older than ca. 231 ka. An MSA horizon found in fluvial sediment was dated to be between 156 and 181 ka by OSL. The EDAR Pleistocene archaeological sites provide evidence for the presence of additional corridor(s) across Nubia, which connects the early hominin dispersals from the Nile and Atbara River systems to the Red Sea coast.

A case for not adjusting birthweight customized standards for ethnicity: observations from a unique Australian cohort

BACKGROUND

Low birthweight is more common in infants of indigenous (Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander) than of White Australian mothers. Controversy exists on whether fetal growth is normally different in different populations.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to determine the relationships of birthweight, birthweight percentiles, and smoking with perinatal outcomes in indigenous vs nonindigenous infants to determine whether the White infant growth charts could be applied to indigenous infants.

STUDY DESIGN

Data were analyzed for indigenous status, maternal age and smoking, and perinatal outcomes in 45,754 singleton liveborn infants of at least 20 weeks gestation or 400 g birthweight delivered in New South Wales, Australia, between June 2010 and July 2015.

RESULTS

Indigenous infants (n=6372; 14%) had a mean birthweight 67 g lower than nonindigenous infants (P<.0001; with adjustment for infant sex and maternal body mass index). Indigenous mean birthweight percentile was 4.2 units lower (P<.0001). Adjustment for maternal age, smoking, body mass index, and infant sex reduced the difference in birthweight/percentiles to nonsignificance (12 g; P=.07).

CONCLUSION

Disparities exist between indigenous and non-indigenous Australian infants for birthweight, birthweight percentile, and adverse outcome rates. Adjustment for smoking and maternal age removed any significant difference in birthweights and birthweight percentiles for indigenous infants. Our data indicate that birthweight percentiles should not be adjusted for indigenous ethnicity because this normalizes disadvantage; because White and indigenous Australians have diverged for approximately 50,000 years, it is likely that the same conclusions apply to other ethnic groups. The disparities in birthweight percentiles that are associated with smoking will likely perpetuate indigenous disadvantage into the future because low birthweight is linked to the development of chronic noncommunicable disease and poorer educational attainment; similar problems may affect other indigenous populations.

One size does not fit all: Group size and the late middle Pleistocene prehistoric archive

The role of demography is often suggested to be a key factor in both biological and cultural evolution. Recent research has shown that the linkage between population size and cultural evolution is not straightforward and emerges from the interplay of many demographic, economic, social and ecological variables. Formal modelling has yielded interesting insights into the complex relationship between population structure, intergroup connectedness, and magnitude and extent of population extinctions. Such studies have highlighted the importance of effective (as opposed to census) population size in transmission processes. At the same time, it remained unclear how such insights can be applied to material culture phenomena in the prehistoric record, especially for deeper prehistory. In this paper we approach the issue of population sizes during the time of the Lower to Middle Paleolithic transition through the proxy of regional trajectories of lithic technological change, identified in the archaeological records from Africa, the Levant, Southwestern and Northwestern Europe. Our discussion of the results takes into consideration the constraints inherent to the archaeological record of deep time - e.g., preservation bias, time-averaging and the incomplete nature of the archaeological record - and of extrapolation from discrete archaeological case studies to an evolutionary time scale. We suggest that technological trajectories of change over this transitional period reflect the robustness of transmission networks. Our results show differences in the pattern and rate of cultural transmission in these regions, from which we infer that information networks, and their underlying effective population sizes, also differed.

Migration, acculturation, and the maintenance of between-group cultural variation

How do migration and acculturation (i.e. psychological or behavioral change resulting from migration) affect within- and between-group cultural variation? Here I address this question by drawing analogies between genetic and cultural evolution. Population genetic models show that migration rapidly breaks down between-group genetic structure. In cultural evolution, however, migrants or their descendants can acculturate to local behaviors via social learning processes such as conformity, potentially preventing migration from eliminating between-group cultural variation. An analysis of the empirical literature on migration suggests that acculturation is common, with second and subsequent migrant generations shifting, sometimes substantially, towards the cultural values of the adopted society. Yet there is little understanding of the individual-level dynamics that underlie these population-level shifts. To explore this formally, I present models quantifying the effect of migration and acculturation on between-group cultural variation, for both neutral and costly cooperative traits. In the models, between-group cultural variation, measured using F statistics, is eliminated by migration and maintained by conformist acculturation. The extent of acculturation is determined by the strength of conformist bias and the number of demonstrators from whom individuals learn. Acculturation is countered by assortation, the tendency for individuals to preferentially interact with culturally-similar others. Unlike neutral traits, cooperative traits can additionally be maintained by payoff-biased social learning, but only in the presence of strong sanctioning mechanisms (e.g. institutions). Overall, the models show that surprisingly little conformist acculturation is required to maintain realistic amounts of between-group cultural diversity. While these models provide insight into the potential dynamics of acculturation and migration in cultural evolution, they also highlight the need for more empirical research into the individual-level learning biases that underlie migrant acculturation.

Archaic lineages broaden our view on the history of Arabidopsis thaliana

Contents Summary 1194 I. Introduction 1194 II. Origin of the A. thaliana species 1194 III. The classic model of the history of A. thaliana 1195 IV. New genomic data from outside Eurasia challenge our view of A. thaliana history 1195 V. Conclusions 1197 Acknowledgements 1197 References 1197 SUMMARY: Natural variation in Arabidopsis thaliana has contributed to discoveries in diverse areas of plant biology. While A. thaliana has typically been considered a weed associated primarily with human-mediated environments, including agricultural and urban sites and railways, it has recently been shown that it is also native in remote natural areas, including high altitude sites in Eurasia and Africa, from the Atlas mountains in Morocco to the afro-alpine regions in Eastern and South Africa to Yunnan in China, the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. This finding suggests that while A. thaliana has been extensively studied in Europe and Western Asia there are still many open questions about its population history, genotype-phenotype relationships and mechanisms of adaptation.

Did Our Species Evolve in Subdivided Populations across Africa, and Why Does It Matter?

We challenge the view that our species, Homo sapiens, evolved within a single population and/or region of Africa. The chronology and physical diversity of Pleistocene human fossils suggest that morphologically varied populations pertaining to the H. sapiens clade lived throughout Africa. Similarly, the African archaeological record demonstrates the polycentric origin and persistence of regionally distinct Pleistocene material culture in a variety of paleoecological settings. Genetic studies also indicate that present-day population structure within Africa extends to deep times, paralleling a paleoenvironmental record of shifting and fractured habitable zones. We argue that these fields support an emerging view of a highly structured African prehistory that should be considered in human evolutionary inferences, prompting new interpretations, questions, and interdisciplinary research directions.

The view that Homo sapiens evolved from a single region/population within Africa has been given primacy in studies of human evolution.

However, developments across multiple fields show that relevant data are no longer consistent with this view.

We argue instead that Homo sapiens evolved within a set of interlinked groups living across Africa, whose connectivity changed through time.

Genetic models therefore need to incorporate a more complex view of ancient migration and divergence in Africa.

We summarize this new framework emphasizing population structure, outline how this changes our understanding of human evolution, and identify new research directions.

Archaeogenomic analysis of the first steps of Neolithization in Anatolia and the Aegean

The Neolithic transition in west Eurasia occurred in two main steps: the gradual development of sedentism and plant cultivation in the Near East and the subsequent spread of Neolithic cultures into the Aegean and across Europe after 7000 cal BCE. Here, we use published ancient genomes to investigate gene flow events in west Eurasia during the Neolithic transition. We confirm that the Early Neolithic central Anatolians in the ninth millennium BCE were probably descendants of local hunter-gatherers, rather than immigrants from the Levant or Iran. We further study the emergence of post-7000 cal BCE north Aegean Neolithic communities. Although Aegean farmers have frequently been assumed to be colonists originating from either central Anatolia or from the Levant, our findings raise alternative possibilities: north Aegean Neolithic populations may have been the product of multiple westward migrations, including south Anatolian emigrants, or they may have been descendants of local Aegean Mesolithic groups who adopted farming. These scenarios are consistent with the diversity of material cultures among Aegean Neolithic communities and the inheritance of local forager know-how. The demographic and cultural dynamics behind the earliest spread of Neolithic culture in the Aegean could therefore be distinct from the subsequent Neolithization of mainland Europe.

A new terrestrial palaeoenvironmental record from the Bering Land Bridge and context for human dispersal

Palaeoenvironmental records from the now-submerged Bering Land Bridge (BLB) covering the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present are needed to document changing environments and connections with the dispersal of humans into North America. Moreover, terrestrially based records of environmental changes are needed in close proximity to the re-establishment of circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Oceans following the end of the last glaciation to test palaeo-climate models for the high latitudes. We present the first terrestrial temperature and hydrologic reconstructions from the LGM to the present from the BLB's south-central margin. We find that the timing of the earliest unequivocal human dispersals into Alaska, based on archaeological evidence, corresponds with a shift to warmer/wetter conditions on the BLB between 14 700 and 13 500 years ago associated with the early Bølling/Allerød interstadial (BA). These environmental changes could have provided the impetus for eastward human dispersal at that time, from Western or central Beringia after a protracted human population standstill. Our data indicate substantial climate-induced environmental changes on the BLB since the LGM, which would potentially have had significant influences on megafaunal and human biogeography in the region.

Body size downgrading of mammals over the late Quaternary

Since the late Pleistocene, large-bodied mammals have been extirpated from much of Earth. Although all habitable continents once harbored giant mammals, the few remaining species are largely confined to Africa. This decline is coincident with the global expansion of hominins over the late Quaternary. Here, we quantify mammalian extinction selectivity, continental body size distributions, and taxonomic diversity over five time periods spanning the past 125,000 years and stretching approximately 200 years into the future. We demonstrate that size-selective extinction was already under way in the oldest interval and occurred on all continents, within all trophic modes, and across all time intervals. Moreover, the degree of selectivity was unprecedented in 65 million years of mammalian evolution. The distinctive selectivity signature implicates hominin activity as a primary driver of taxonomic losses and ecosystem homogenization. Because megafauna have a disproportionate influence on ecosystem structure and function, past and present body size downgrading is reshaping Earth's biosphere.

DNA barcoding unravels contrasting evolutionary history of two widespread Asian tiger moth species during the Late Pleistocene

Populations of widespread pest insects in tropical areas are characterized by a complex evolutionary history, with overlapping natural and human-mediated dispersal events, sudden expansions, and bottlenecks. Here, we provide biogeographic reconstructions for two widespread pest species in the tiger moth genus Creatonotos (Lepidoptera: Erebidae: Arctiinae) based on the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene. The Asian Creatonotos transiens reveals shallow genetic divergence between distant populations that does not support its current intraspecific systematics with several local subspecies. In contrast, the more widespread Creatonotos gangis comprises at least three divergent subclades corresponding to certain geographic areas, i.e. Australia, Arabia + South Asia and Southeast Asia. With respect to our approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) model, the expansion of Creatonotos gangis into Australia is placed in the Late Pleistocene (~65–63 ka). This dating coincide with an approximate time of the earliest human migration into the continent (~65–54 ka) and the period of intervisibility between Timor and Australia (~65–62 ka). Our findings highlight that the drying Sunda and Sahul shelf areas likely support successful migrations of Asian taxa into Australia during the Pleistocene. The phylogeographic patterns discovered in this study can be used to improve the effectiveness of integrated pest control programs that is a task of substantial practical importance to a broad range of agricultural stakeholders.

Middle and Later Stone Age chronology of Kisese II rockshelter (UNESCO World Heritage Kondoa Rock-Art Sites), Tanzania

The archaeology of East Africa during the last ~65,000 years plays a central role in debates about the origins and dispersal of modern humans, Homo sapiens. Despite the historical importance of the region to these discussions, reliable chronologies for the nature, tempo, and timing of human behavioral changes seen among Middle Stone Age (MSA) and Later Stone Age (LSA) archaeological assemblages are sparse. The Kisese II rockshelter in the Kondoa region of Tanzania, originally excavated in 1956, preserves a ≥ 6-m-thick archaeological succession that spans the MSA/LSA transition, with lithic artifacts such as Levallois and bladelet cores and backed microliths, the recurrent use of red ochre, and >5,000 ostrich eggshell beads and bead fragments. Twenty-nine radiocarbon dates on ostrich eggshell carbonate make Kisese II one of the most robust chronological sequences for understanding archaeological change over the last ~47,000 years in East Africa. In particular, ostrich eggshell beads and backed microliths appear by 46-42 ka cal BP and occur throughout overlying Late Pleistocene and Holocene strata. Changes in lithic technology suggest an MSA/LSA transition that began 39-34.3 ka, with typical LSA technologies in place by the Last Glacial Maximum. The timing of these changes demonstrates the time-transgressive nature of behavioral innovations often linked to the origins of modern humans, even within a single region of Africa.

Subdecadal phytolith and charcoal records from Lake Malawi, East Africa imply minimal effects on human evolution from the ∼74 ka Toba supereruption

The temporal proximity of the ∼74 ka Toba supereruption to a putative 100-50 ka human population bottleneck is the basis for the volcanic winter/weak Garden of Eden hypothesis, which states that the eruption caused a 6-year-long global volcanic winter and reduced the effective population of anatomically modern humans (AMH) to fewer than 10,000 individuals. To test this hypothesis, we sampled two cores collected from Lake Malawi with cryptotephra previously fingerprinted to the Toba supereruption. Phytolith and charcoal samples were continuously collected at ∼3-4 mm (∼8-9 yr) intervals above and below the Toba cryptotephra position, with no stratigraphic breaks. For samples synchronous or proximal to the Toba interval, we found no change in low elevation tree cover, or in cool climate C₃ and warm season C₄ xerophytic and mesophytic grass abundance that is outside of normal variability. A spike in locally derived charcoal and xerophytic C₄ grasses immediately after the Toba eruption indicates reduced precipitation and die-off of at least some afromontane vegetation, but does not signal volcanic winter conditions. A review of Toba tuff petrological and melt inclusion studies suggest a Tambora-like 50 to 100 Mt SO₂ atmospheric injection. However, most Toba climate models use SO₂ values that are one to two orders of magnitude higher, thereby significantly overestimating the amount of cooling. A review of recent genetic studies finds no support for a genetic bottleneck at or near ∼74 ka. Based on these previous studies and our new paleoenvironmental data, we find no support for the Toba catastrophe hypothesis and conclude that the Toba supereruption did not 1) produce a 6-year-long volcanic winter in eastern Africa, 2) cause a genetic bottleneck among African AMH populations, or 3) bring humanity to the brink of extinction.

Productivity, biodiversity, and pathogens influence the global hunter-gatherer population density

The environmental drivers of species distributions and abundances are at the core of ecological research. However, the effects of these drivers on human abundance are not well-known. Here, we report how net primary productivity, biodiversity, and pathogen stress affect human population density using global ethnographic hunter-gatherer data. Our results show that productivity has significant effects on population density globally. The most important direct drivers, however, depend on environmental conditions: biodiversity influences population density exclusively in low-productivity regions, whereas pathogen stress does so in high-productivity regions. Our results also indicate that subtropical and temperate forest biomes provide the highest carrying capacity for hunter-gatherer populations. These findings document that environmental factors play a key role in shaping global population density patterns of preagricultural humans.

150,000-year palaeoclimate record from northern Ethiopia supports early, multiple dispersals of modern humans from Africa

Climatic change is widely acknowledged to have played a role in the dispersal of modern humans out of Africa, but the timing is contentious. Genetic evidence links dispersal to climatic change ~60,000 years ago, despite increasing evidence for earlier modern human presence in Asia. We report a deep seismic and near-continuous core record of the last 150,000 years from Lake Tana, Ethiopia, close to early modern human fossil sites and to postulated dispersal routes. The record shows varied climate towards the end of the penultimate glacial, followed by an abrupt change to relatively stable moist climate during the last interglacial. These conditions could have favoured selection for behavioural versatility, population growth and range expansion, supporting models of early, multiple dispersals of modern humans from Africa.

Madeiran Arabidopsis thaliana Reveals Ancient Long-Range Colonization and Clarifies Demography in Eurasia

The study of model organisms on islands may shed light on rare long-range dispersal events, uncover signatures of local evolutionary processes, and inform demographic inference on the mainland. Here, we sequenced the genomes of Arabidopsis thaliana samples from the oceanic island of Madeira. These samples include the most diverged worldwide, likely a result of long isolation on the island. We infer that colonization of Madeira happened between 70 and 85 ka, consistent with a propagule dispersal model (of size ≥10), or with an ecological window of opportunity. This represents a clear example of a natural long-range dispersal event in A. thaliana. Long-term effective population size on the island, rather than the founder effect, had the greatest impact on levels of diversity, and rates of coalescence. Our results uncover a selective sweep signature on the ancestral haplotype of a known translocation in Eurasia, as well as the possible importance of the low phosphorous availability in volcanic soils, and altitude, in shaping early adaptations to the island conditions. Madeiran genomes, sheltered from the complexities of continental demography, help illuminate ancient demographic events in Eurasia. Our data support a model in which two separate lineages of A. thaliana, one originating in Africa and the other from the Caucasus expanded and met in Iberia, resulting in a secondary contact zone there. Although previous studies inferred that the westward expansion of A. thaliana coincided with the spread of human agriculture, our results suggest that it happened much earlier (20-40 ka).

A global perspective on hepatitis B-related single nucleotide polymorphisms and evolution during human migration

Genome-wide association studies have indicated that human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DP and HLA-DQ play roles in persistent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Asia. To understand the evolution of HBV-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and to correlate these SNPs with chronic HBV infection among different populations, we conducted a global perspective study on hepatitis-related SNPs. We selected 12 HBV-related SNPs on the HLA locus and two HBV and three hepatitis C virus immune-related SNPs for analysis. Five nasopharyngeal carcinoma-related SNPs served as controls. All SNP data worldwide from 26 populations were downloaded from 1,000 genomes. We found a dramatic difference in the allele frequency in most of the HBV- and HLA-related SNPs in East Asia compared to the other continents. A sharp change in allele frequency in 8 of 12 SNPs was found between Bengali populations in Bangladesh and Chinese Dai populations in Xishuangbanna, China (P < 0.001); these areas represent the junction of South and East Asia. For the immune-related SNPs, significant changes were found after leaving Africa. Most of these genes shifted from higher expression genotypes in Africa to lower expression genotypes in either Europe or South Asia (P < 0.001). During this two-stage adaptation, immunity adjusted toward a weak immune response, which could have been a survival strategy during human migration to East Asia. The prevalence of chronic HBV infection in Africa is as high as in Asia; however, the HBV-related SNP genotypes are not present in Africa, and so the genetic mechanism of chronic HBV infection in Africa needs further exploration. Conclusion: Two stages of genetic changes toward a weak immune response occurred when humans migrated out of Africa. These changes could be a survival strategy for avoiding cytokine storms and surviving in new environments. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:1005-1013).

Technological complexity and the global dispersal of modern humans

Anatomically modern humans (Homo sapiens) dispersed out of Africa roughly 120,000 years ago and again after 75,000 years ago. The early dispersal was geographically restricted to the Arabian Peninsula, Levant, and possibly parts of southern Asia. The later dispersal was ultimately global in scope, including areas not previously occupied by Homo. One explanation for the contrast between the two out-of-Africa dispersals is that the modern humans who expanded into Eurasia 120,000 years ago lacked the functionally and structurally complex technology of recent hunter-gatherers. This technology, which includes, for example, mechanical projectiles, snares and traps, and sewn clothing, provides not only expanded dietary breadth and increased rates of foraging efficiency and success in places where plant and animal productivity is low, but protection from cold weather in places where winter temperatures are low. The absence of complex technology before 75,000 years ago also may explain why modern humans in the Levant did not develop sedentary settlements and agriculture 120,000 years ago (i.e., during the Last Interglacial).

A diffusion based study of population dynamics: Prehistoric migrations into South Asia

A diffusion equation has been used to study migration of early humans into the South Asian subcontinent. The diffusion equation is tempered by a set of parameters that account for geographical features like proximity to water resources, altitude, and flatness of land. The ensuing diffusion of populations is followed in time-dependent computer simulations carried out over a period of 10,000 YBP. The geographical parameters are determined from readily-available satellite data. The results of our computer simulations are compared to recent genetic data so as to better correlate the migratory patterns of various populations; they suggest that the initial populations started to coalesce around 4,000 YBP before the commencement of a period of relative geographical isolation of each population group. The period during which coalescence of populations occurred appears consistent with the established timeline associated with the Harappan civilization and also, with genetic admixing that recent genetic mapping data reveal. Our results may contribute to providing a timeline for the movement of prehistoric people. Most significantly, our results appear to suggest that the Ancestral Austro-Asiatic population entered the subcontinent through an easterly direction, potentially resolving a hitherto-contentious issue.

African genomes illuminate the early history and transition to selfing in Arabidopsis thaliana

Over the past 20 y, many studies have examined the history of the plant ecological and molecular model, Arabidopsis thaliana, in Europe and North America. Although these studies informed us about the recent history of the species, the early history has remained elusive. In a large-scale genomic analysis of African A. thaliana, we sequenced the genomes of 78 modern and herbarium samples from Africa and analyzed these together with over 1,000 previously sequenced Eurasian samples. In striking contrast to expectations, we find that all African individuals sampled are native to this continent, including those from sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, we show that Africa harbors the greatest variation and represents the deepest history in the A. thaliana lineage. Our results also reveal evidence that selfing, a major defining characteristic of the species, evolved in a single geographic region, best represented today within Africa. Demographic inference supports a model in which the ancestral A. thaliana population began to split by 120-90 kya, during the last interglacial and Abbassia pluvial, and Eurasian populations subsequently separated from one another at around 40 kya. This bears striking similarities to the patterns observed for diverse species, including humans, implying a key role for climatic events during interglacial and pluvial periods in shaping the histories and current distributions of a wide range of species.

Intensity of African Humid Periods Estimated from Saharan Dust Fluxes

North Africa experienced dramatic changes in hydrology and vegetation during the late Quaternary driven by insolation-induced shifts of the tropical rain belt and further modulated by millennial-scale droughts and vegetation-climate feedbacks. While most past proxy and modelling studies concentrated on the temporal and spatial dynamics of the last African humid period, little is known about the intensities and characteristics of pre-Holocene humid periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of fine-grained eastern Saharan dust from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea spanning the last 180 kyr, which is based on the clay mineral composition of the marine sediments, especially the kaolinite/chlorite ratio. Minimum aeolian kaolinite transport occurred during the African Humid Periods because kaolinite deflation was hampered by increased humidity and vegetation cover. Instead, kaolinite weathering from kaolinite-bearing Cenozoic rocks was stored in lake basins, river beds and soils during these periods. During the subsequent dry phases, fine-grained dust was mobilised from the desiccated lakes, rivers and soils resulting in maximum aeolian uptake and transport of kaolinite. The kaolinite transport decreased again when these sediment sources exhausted. We conclude that the amount of clay-sized dust blown out of the Sahara into the Eastern Mediterranean Sea is proportional to the intensity of the kaolinite weathering and accumulation in soils and lake sediments, and thus to the strength of the preceding humid period. These humid periods provided the windows for the migration of modern humans out of Africa, as postulated previously. The strongest humid period occurred during the Eemian and was followed by two weaker phases centred at ca. 100 ka and ca. 80 ka.

Twenty-first century approaches to ancient problems: Climate and society

By documenting how humans adapted to changes in their environment that are often much greater than those experienced in the instrumental record, archaeology provides our only deep-time laboratory for highlighting the circumstances under which humans managed or failed to find to adaptive solutions to changing climate, not just over a few generations but over the longue durée Patterning between climate-mediated environmental change and change in human societies has, however, been murky because of low spatial and temporal resolution in available datasets, and because of failure to model the effects of climate change on local resources important to human societies. In this paper we review recent advances in computational modeling that, in conjunction with improving data, address these limitations. These advances include network analysis, niche and species distribution modeling, and agent-based modeling. These studies demonstrate the utility of deep-time modeling for calibrating our understanding of how climate is influencing societies today and may in the future.