Environmental change and infectious disease: how new roads affect the transmission of diarrheal pathogens in rural Ecuador

Untangling the Impacts of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: a Systematic Review of Relationships between Diarrheal Diseases and Temperature, Rainfall, Flooding, and Drought

Global climate change is expected to affect waterborne enteric diseases, yet to date there has been no comprehensive, systematic review of the epidemiological literature examining the relationship between meteorological conditions and diarrheal diseases. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Collection for studies describing the relationship between diarrheal diseases and four meteorological conditions that are expected to increase with climate change: ambient temperature, heavy rainfall, drought, and flooding. We synthesized key areas of agreement and evaluated the biological plausibility of these findings, drawing from a diverse, multidisciplinary evidence base. We identified 141 articles that met our inclusion criteria. Key areas of agreement include a positive association between ambient temperature and diarrheal diseases, with the exception of viral diarrhea and an increase in diarrheal disease following heavy rainfall and flooding events. Insufficient evidence was available to evaluate the effects of drought on diarrhea. There is evidence to support the biological plausibility of these associations, but publication bias is an ongoing concern. Future research evaluating whether interventions, such as improved water and sanitation access, modify risk would further our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on diarrheal diseases and aid in the prioritization of adaptation measures.

Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

I get height with a little help from my friends: herd protection from sanitation on child growth in rural Ecuador

BACKGROUND

Infectious disease interventions, such as vaccines and bed nets, have the potential to provide herd protection to non-recipients. Similarly, improved sanitation in one household may provide community-wide benefits if it reduces contamination in the shared environment. Sanitation at the household level is an important predictor of child growth, but less is known about the effect of sanitation coverage in the community.

METHODS

From 2008 to 2013, we took repeated anthropometric measurements on 1314 children under 5 years of age in 24 rural Ecuadorian villages. Using mixed effects regression, we estimated the association between sanitation coverage in surrounding households and child growth.

RESULTS

Sanitation coverage in the surrounding households was strongly associated with child height, as those with 100% coverage in their surroundings had a 67% lower prevalence of stunting [prevalence ratio (PR) 0.32, 95% CI 0.15-0.69] compared with those with 0% coverage. Children from households with improved sanitation had a lower prevalence of stunting (PR 0.86, 95% CI 0.64-1.15). When analysing height as a continuous outcome, the protective effect of sanitation coverage is manifested primarily among girls during the second year of life, the time at which growth faltering is most likely to occur.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights that a household's sanitation practices can provide herd protection to the overall community. Studies which fail to account for the positive externalities that sanitation provides will underestimate the overall protective effect. Future studies could seek to identify a threshold of sanitation coverage, similar to a herd immunity threshold, to provide coverage and compliance targets.

Antibiotic Resistance in Animal and Environmental Samples Associated with Small-Scale Poultry Farming in Northwestern Ecuador

In developing countries, small-scale poultry farming employing antibiotics as growth promoters is being advanced as an inexpensive source of protein and income. Here, we present the results of a large ecoepidemiological study examining patterns of antibiotic resistance (AR) in E. coli isolates from small-scale poultry production environments versus domestic environments in rural Ecuador, where such backyard poultry operations have become established over the past decade. Our previous research in the region suggests that introduction of AR bacteria through travel and commerce may be an important source of AR in villages of this region. This report extends the prior analysis by examining small-scale production chicken farming as a potential source of resistant strains. Our results suggest that AR strains associated with poultry production likely originate from sources outside the study area and that these outside sources might be a better place to target control efforts than local management practices.

The effects of animal agriculture on the spread of antibiotic resistance (AR) are cross-cutting and thus require a multidisciplinary perspective. Here we use ecological, epidemiological, and ethnographic methods to examine populations of Escherichia coli circulating in the production poultry farming environment versus the domestic environment in rural Ecuador, where small-scale poultry production employing nontherapeutic antibiotics is increasingly common. We sampled 262 “production birds” (commercially raised broiler chickens and laying hens) and 455 “household birds” (raised for domestic use) and household and coop environmental samples from 17 villages between 2010 and 2013. We analyzed data on zones of inhibition from Kirby-Bauer tests, rather than established clinical breakpoints for AR, to distinguish between populations of organisms. We saw significantly higher levels of AR in bacteria from production versus household birds; resistance to either amoxicillin-clavulanate, cephalothin, cefotaxime, and gentamicin was found in 52.8% of production bird isolates and 16% of household ones. A strain jointly resistant to the 4 drugs was exclusive to a subset of isolates from production birds (7.6%) and coop surfaces (6.5%) and was associated with a particular purchase site. The prevalence of AR in production birds declined with bird age (P < 0.01 for all antibiotics tested except tetracycline, sulfisoxazole, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole). Farming status did not impact AR in domestic environments at the household or village level. Our results suggest that AR associated with small-scale poultry farming is present in the immediate production environment and likely originates from sources outside the study area. These outside sources might be a better place to target control efforts than local management practices.

IMPORTANCE In developing countries, small-scale poultry farming employing antibiotics as growth promoters is being advanced as an inexpensive source of protein and income. Here, we present the results of a large ecoepidemiological study examining patterns of antibiotic resistance (AR) in E. coli isolates from small-scale poultry production environments versus domestic environments in rural Ecuador, where such backyard poultry operations have become established over the past decade. Our previous research in the region suggests that introduction of AR bacteria through travel and commerce may be an important source of AR in villages of this region. This report extends the prior analysis by examining small-scale production chicken farming as a potential source of resistant strains. Our results suggest that AR strains associated with poultry production likely originate from sources outside the study area and that these outside sources might be a better place to target control efforts than local management practices.

Unexpected distribution of the fluoroquinolone-resistance gene qnrB in Escherichia coli isolates from different human and poultry origins in Ecuador

Fluoroquinolone resistance can be conferred through chromosomal mutations or by the acquisition of plasmids carrying genes such as the quinolone resistance gene (qnr). In this study, 3,309 strains of commensal Escherichia coli were isolated in Ecuador from: (i) humans and chickens in a rural northern coastal area (n = 2368, 71.5%) and (ii) chickens from an industrial poultry operation (n = 827, 25%). In addition, 114 fluoroquinolone-resistant strains from patients with urinary tract infections who were treated at three urban hospitals in Quito, Ecuador were analyzed. All of the isolates were subjected to antibiotic susceptibility screening. Fluoroquinolone-resistant isolates (FRIs) were then screened for the presence of qnrB genes. A significantly higher phenotypic resistance to fluoroquinolones was determined in E. coli strains from chickens in both the rural area (22%) and the industrial operation (10%) than in strains isolated from humans in the rural communities (3%). However, the rates of qnrB genes in E. coli isolates from healthy humans in the rural communities (11 of 35 isolates, 31%) was higher than in chickens from either the industrial operations (3 of 81 isolates, 6%) or the rural communities (7 of 251 isolates, 2.8%). The occurrence of qnrB genes in human FRIs obtained from urban hospitals was low (1 of 114 isolates, 0.9%). These results suggested that the qnrB gene is more widely distributed in rural settings, where antibiotic usage is low, than in urban hospitals and industrial poultry operations. The role of qnrB in clinical resistance to fluoroquinolones is thus far unknown.

Distribution of Enteroinvasive and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli Across Space and Time in Northwestern Ecuador

Although Escherichia coli infections are common throughout the developing world, their prevalence patterns in space and over time are not well characterized. We used serial case control data collected from 16 communities in northwestern Ecuador between 2004 and 2010, to examine the prevalence of enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC) and enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC). At its peak, the regional prevalence of EIEC was 8.3 infections/100 persons but this decreased to 1 infection/1,000 persons. The regional prevalence of ETEC ranged from 8 infections/1,000 persons to 3.7 infections/100 persons. The prevalence pattern of EIEC resembled that of a large epidemic whereas the prevalence of ETEC was more stable over time. Here, we provide community-based evidence for temporal shifts in the dominant E. coli pathotype from EIEC to ETEC over a multi-year time period. Furthermore, genotype analysis suggests that a given strain of EIEC and ETEC can persist in this region for long periods, up to 24 and 55 months, respectively.

Effects of selection pressure and genetic association on the relationship between antibiotic resistance and virulence in Escherichia coli

Antibiotic selection pressure and genetic associations may lead to the cooccurrence of resistance and virulence in individual pathogens. However, there is a lack of rigorous epidemiological evidence that demonstrates the cooccurrence of resistance and virulence at the population level. Using samples from a population-based case-control study in 25 villages in rural Ecuador, we characterized resistance to 12 antibiotics among pathogenic (n = 86) and commensal (n = 761) Escherichia coli isolates, classified by the presence or absence of known diarrheagenic virulence factor genes. The prevalences of resistance to single and multiple antibiotics were significantly higher for pathogenic isolates than for commensal isolates. Using a generalized estimating equation, antibiotic resistance was independently associated with virulence factor carriage, case status, and antibiotic use (for these respective factors: odds ratio [OR] = 3.0, with a 95% confidence interval [CI] of 1.7 to 5.1; OR = 2.0, with a 95% CI of 1.3 to 3.0; and OR = 1.5, with a 95% CI of 0.9 to 2.5). Virulence factor carriage was more strongly related to antibiotic resistance than antibiotic use for all antibiotics examined, with the exception of fluoroquinolones, gentamicin, and cefotaxime. This study provides epidemiological evidence that antibiotic resistance and virulence factor carriage are linked in E. coli populations in a community setting. Further, these data suggest that while the cooccurrence of resistance and virulence in E. coli is partially due to antibiotic selection pressure, it is also genetically determined. These findings should be considered in developing strategies for treating infections and controlling for antibiotic resistance.

Spatial Variability of Escherichia coli in Rivers of Northern Coastal Ecuador

The use of contaminated surface water continues to be a pressing issue in areas of the world where people lack improved drinking water sources. In northern coastal Ecuador, many communities rely on untreated surface water as their primary source of drinking water. We undertook a study to explore how microscale river hydrodynamics affect microbial water quality at community water collection locations at three rivers with varying stream velocity and turbidity profiles. To examine how the distance from river shore and physiochemical water quality variables affect microbial contamination levels in the rivers; we collected a total of 355 water samples within six villages on three rivers; and tested for Escherichia coli concentrations using the IDEXX Quanti-tray method. We found that log₁₀E. coli concentrations decreased with increasing distance from shore (β = −0.017; p = 0.003). Water in the main channel had E. coli concentrations on average 0.12 log₁₀ lower than within eddies along the river shore and 0.27 log₁₀ lower between the sample closest to shore and any sample >6 m from the shore. Higher E. coli concentrations were also significantly associated with increased turbidity (β = 0.003; p < 0.0001) and decreased dissolved oxygen levels (β = −0.310; p < 0.0001). The results of this study can help inform community members about the safest locations to collect drinking water and also provide information on watershed scale transport of microbial contaminants between villages.

High prevalence of the liver fluke Amphimerus sp. in domestic cats and dogs in an area for human amphimeriasis in Ecuador

Background

Amphimerus sp. is a liver fluke which recently has been shown to have a high prevalence of infection among an indigenous group, Chachi, who reside in a tropical rainforest in the northwestern region of Ecuador. Since it is unknown which animals can act as a reservoir and/or definitive hosts for Amphimerus sp. in this endemic area, a study was done to determine the prevalence of infection in domestic cats and dogs. This information is important to understand the epidemiology, life cycle and control of this parasite.

Methodology/Findings

In July 2012, three Chachi communities located on Rio Cayapas, province of Esmeraldas, were surveyed. A total of 89 of the 109 registered households participated in the study. Of the 27 cats and 43 dogs found residing in the communities, stool samples were collected from 14 cats and 31 dogs (total of 45 animals) and examined microscopically for the presence of Amphimerus eggs. The prevalence of infection was 71.4% in cats and 38.7% in dogs, with similar rates of infection in all three communities. Significantly more cats were infected than dogs (p = 0.042).

Conclusions/Significance

The data show a high rate of Amphimerus sp. infection in domestic cats and dogs residing in Chachi communities. It can be concluded that these animals act as definitive and reservoir hosts for this liver fluke and that amphimeriasis is a zoonotic disease. These findings provide important epidemiological data which will aid in the development and implementation of control strategies against the transmission of Amphimerus.

Amphimerus sp. is a fluke that infects the bile ducts of its definitive hosts. Recently, it has been shown that an indigenous Amerindian group, the Chachi, living in a rural and remote tropical area of Ecuador, are infected with this parasite. The epidemiology and life cycle of this parasite remains elusive, and research is needed to understand the mode of transmission and zoonotic potential of the parasite. It was hypothesized that the domestic animals of the Chachi households may act as definitive and reservoir hosts for Amphimerus infection. Hence, the presence and prevalence of infection in these animals residing in communities endemic for human amphimeriasis was investigated. Some 45 animal stool samples were examined microscopically for the presence of Amphimerus eggs. The results showed an infection rate of 71.4% in cats and 38.7% in dogs. The data provided evidence that these domestic animals act as both definitive and reservoir hosts for the parasite and that amphimeriasis is a zoonotic disease. The implementation of a mass treatment/control program must target both humans and animals in order to minimize the transmission of this liver fluke.

Ask when--not just whether--it's a risk: How regional context influences local causes of diarrheal disease

Contemporary epidemiology is enriched when it incorporates ecological concepts about systems and dependencies. With regard to diarrheal disease, the causes of which are many and interacting, the dynamics of within- and between-community disease transmission have distinct components but are also linked in important ways. However, few investigators have studied how regional-scale disease dynamics affect local patterns of diarrheal disease transmission. Characterizing this dependence is important for identifying local- and regional-level transmission pathways. We used data from active surveillance of diarrheal disease prevalence gathered from February 2004 through July 2007 in 21 neighboring Ecuadorian villages to estimate how disease prevalence in spatially and temporally proximate villages modulates the influences of village-level risk and protective factors. We found that the impact of local, village-level interventions such as improved latrines and water treatment can be quite different under conditions of high and low regional disease prevalence. In particular, water treatment was effective only when regional disease prevalence was low, suggesting that person-to-person spread, not waterborne spread, is probably responsible for most between-village transmission in this region. Additional regional-scale data could enhance our understanding of how regional-scale transmission affects local-scale dynamics.

Transition in the cause of fever from malaria to dengue, Northwestern Ecuador, 1990-2011

In tropical areas, the predominant cause of fever has historically been malaria. However by 2011, among febrile patients in northwestern Ecuador, dengue was identified in 42% and malaria in none. This finding suggests a transition in the cause of fever from malaria to other illnesses, such as dengue.

A space-time point process model for analyzing and predicting case patterns of diarrheal disease in northwestern Ecuador

We consider modeling case-patterns under a complex spatial and longitudinal sampling design as conducted via a serial case-control study of diarrheal disease in northwestern Ecuador. We build a two-stage space-time model to understand the role of spatially and temporally referenced covariates that reflect social and natural environments in the sampled region, after accounting for unmeasured residual heterogeneities. All diarrheal case events are collected from 21 sampled communities in Esmeraldes province in Ecuador, during seven sampling cycles from 2003 to 2008. The region of interest comprises 158 communities along a river basin. Prediction of case counts at unsampled communities at a future time is of interest along with estimation of risk-related parameters. We propose a computationally feasible two-stage Bayesian approach to estimate the risk-related parameters and conduct predictive inference. We first apply the log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP), commonly used to model spatial clustering of point patterns, to accommodate temporal variation within the sampled communities. Prediction of the number of cases at unsampled communities at a future time is obtained by a disease mapping model conditional on the expected case counts from Stage I.

Heavy rainfall events and diarrhea incidence: the role of social and environmental factors

The impact of heavy rainfall events on waterborne diarrheal diseases is uncertain. We conducted weekly, active surveillance for diarrhea in 19 villages in Ecuador from February 2004 to April 2007 in order to evaluate whether biophysical and social factors modify vulnerability to heavy rainfall events. A heavy rainfall event was defined as 24-hour rainfall exceeding the 90th percentile value (56 mm) in a given 7-day period within the study period. Mixed-effects Poisson regression was used to test the hypothesis that rainfall in the prior 8 weeks, water and sanitation conditions, and social cohesion modified the relationship between heavy rainfall events and diarrhea incidence. Heavy rainfall events were associated with increased diarrhea incidence following dry periods (incidence rate ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.87) and decreased diarrhea incidence following wet periods (incidence rate ratio = 0.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.92). Drinking water treatment reduced the deleterious impacts of heavy rainfall events following dry periods. Sanitation, hygiene, and social cohesion did not modify the relationship between heavy rainfall events and diarrhea. Heavy rainfall events appear to affect diarrhea incidence through contamination of drinking water, and they present the greatest health risks following periods of low rainfall. Interventions designed to increase drinking water treatment may reduce climate vulnerability.

Drivers of Emerging Zoonotic Infectious Diseases

This chapter discusses drivers of emerging infectious diseases (EID) of humans that have an origin in other vertebrate animals (zoonoses). This is a broad topic, worthy of a book in its own right. This chapter will therefore provide only an overview of key concepts of drivers of the emergence of zoonotic diseases, and particularly infectious diseases with a major disease burden in humans. As the authors mainly work in Asia, the focus of this chapter is Asia, but many of the lessons learned in this region are likely to apply elsewhere.

More than 60 % of the world population live in Asia, a region with some of the fastest developing economies in the world. Yet, despite tremendous advances, infectious diseases still remain a major burden for the human population in Asia. Of the estimated 2.1 million deaths in children aged less than 5 years in Southeast Asia in 2010, 47 % are attributable to infectious causes (Liu et al., Lancet 379:2151–2161, 2012). As such, Asia is both vulnerable to imported EIDs and a global focus of major social and environmental change that may facilitate the emergence and dissemination of new pathogens. However, it would be too simplistic to present the extensive changes in Asia as inevitably increasing the risk of EIDs. Some aspects of socio-economic change might serve to reduce the overall risk of infectious disease emergence, but all ecosystem changes have the potential to provide new opportunities for microorganisms to spill-over into human populations.

Cultural change and traditional ecological knowledge. An empirical analysis from the Tsimane' in the Bolivian Amazon

Among the different factors associated to change in traditional ecological knowledge, the study of the relations between cultural change and traditional ecological knowledge has received scan and inadequate scholarly attention. Using data from indigenous peoples of an Amazonian society facing increasing exposure to the mainstream Bolivian society, we analyzed the relation between traditional ecological knowledge, proxied with individual plant use knowledge (n=484), and cultural change, proxied with individual- and village-level (n=47) measures of attachment to traditional beliefs and values. We found that both the individual level of detachment to traditional values and the village level of agreement in detachment to traditional values were associated with individual levels of plant use knowledge, irrespective of other proxy measures for cultural change. Because both the individual- and the village-level variables bear statistically significant associations with plant use knowledge, our results suggest that both the individual- and the supra-individual level processes of cultural change are related to the erosion of plant use knowledge. Results from our work highlight the importance of analyzing processes that happen at intermediary social units -the village in our case study- to explain changes in traditional ecological knowledge.

Prospects for emerging infections in East and southeast Asia 10 years after severe acute respiratory syndrome

It is 10 years since severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) emerged, and East and Southeast Asia retain a reputation as a hot spot of emerging infectious diseases. The region is certainly a hot spot of socioeconomic and environmental change, and although some changes (e.g., urbanization and agricultural intensification) may reduce the probability of emerging infectious diseases, the effect of any individual emergence event may be increased by the greater concentration and connectivity of livestock, persons, and products. The region is now better able to detect and respond to emerging infectious diseases than it was a decade ago, but the tools and methods to produce sufficiently refined assessments of the risks of disease emergence are still lacking. Given the continued scale and pace of change in East and Southeast Asia, it is vital that capabilities for predicting, identifying, and controlling biologic threats do not stagnate as the memory of SARS fades.

Evidence of traditional knowledge loss among a contemporary indigenous society

As biological and linguistic diversity, the world's cultural diversity is on decline. However, to date there are no estimates of the rate at which the specific cultural traits of a group disappear, mainly because we lack empirical data to assess how the cultural traits of a given population change over time. Here we estimate changes in cultural traits associated to the traditional knowledge of wild plant uses among an Amazonian indigenous society. We collected data among 1151 Tsimane' Amerindians at two periods of time. Results show that between 2000 and 2009, Tsimane' adults experienced a net decrease in the report of plant uses ranging from 9% (for the female subsample) to 26% (for the subsample of people living close to towns), equivalent to a 1 to 3 % per year. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation show that the observed changes were not the result of randomness. Changes were more acute for men than for women and for informants living in villages close to market towns than for informants settled in remote villages. The Tsimane' could be abandoning their traditional knowledge as they perceive that this form of knowledge do not equip them well to deal with the new socio-economic and cultural conditions they face nowadays.

Land-use change and emerging infectious disease on an island continent

A more rigorous and nuanced understanding of land-use change (LUC) as a driver of emerging infectious disease (EID) is required. Here we examine post hunter-gatherer LUC as a driver of infectious disease in one biogeographical region with a compressed and documented history--continental Australia. We do this by examining land-use and native vegetation change (LUCC) associations with infectious disease emergence identified through a systematic (1973-2010) and historical (1788-1973) review of infectious disease literature of humans and animals. We find that 22% (20) of the systematically reviewed EIDs are associated with LUCC, most frequently where natural landscapes have been removed or replaced with agriculture, plantations, livestock or urban development. Historical clustering of vector-borne, zoonotic and environmental disease emergence also follows major periods of extensive land clearing. These advanced stages of LUCC are accompanied by changes in the distribution and density of hosts and vectors, at varying scales and chronology. This review of infectious disease emergence in one continent provides valuable insight into the association between accelerated global LUC and concurrent accelerated infectious disease emergence.

Social and spatial processes associated with childhood diarrheal disease in Matlab, Bangladesh

We develop novel methods for conceptualizing geographic space and social networks to evaluate their respective and combined contributions to childhood diarrheal incidence. After defining maternal networks according to direct familial linkages between females, and road networks using satellite imagery of the study area, we use a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the significance of correlation terms relating childhood diarrheal incidence to the incidence observed within respective networks. Disease was significantly clustered within road networks across time, but only inconsistently correlated within maternal networks. These methods could be widely applied to systems in which both social and spatial processes jointly influence health outcomes.

Social connectedness and disease transmission: social organization, cohesion, village context, and infection risk in rural Ecuador

Social networks are typically seen as conduits for the spread of disease and disease risk factors. However, social relationships also reduce the incidence of chronic disease and potentially infectious diseases. Seldom are these opposing effects considered simultaneously. We have shown how and why diarrheal disease spreads more slowly to and in rural Ecuadorian villages that are more remote from the area's population center. Reduced contact with outside individuals partially accounts for remote villages' relatively lower prevalence of diarrheal disease. But equally or more important is the greater density of social ties between individuals in remote communities, which facilitates the spread of individual and collective practices that reduce the transmission of diarrheal disease.

Synergistic effects between rotavirus and coinfecting pathogens on diarrheal disease: evidence from a community-based study in northwestern Ecuador

In developing countries where diarrheal disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years of age, enteric coinfection is common. There is little understanding, however, of the biologic interaction between coinfecting pathogens. The authors investigated the potential for synergistic interaction between coinfecting pathogens on diarrhea pathogenesis using an epidemiologic framework. They conducted community-based, case-control studies in 22 communities in northwestern Ecuador between 2003 and 2008. Risk ratios of diarrhea associated with single infections and coinfections were estimated. Interaction between coinfecting pathogens was assessed through departure from risk ratio additivity and multiplicativity after adjustment for age. On the additive scale, the authors found departure from the null value of 0 for rotavirus-Giardia coinfections (interaction contrast ratio = 8.0, 95% confidence interval: 3.1, 18.9) and for rotavirus-Escherichia coli coinfections (interaction contrast ratio = 9.9, 95% confidence interval: 2.6, 28.4). On the multiplicative scale, they found departure from the value of 1 for rotavirus-Giardia coinfections (multiplicative interaction = 3.6, 95% confidence interval: 1.3, 8.7). This research provides epidemiologic evidence for synergism between rotavirus and other enteric pathogens. During coinfection, the pathogenic potential of each organism appears to be enhanced. The potential for pathogenesis to be more severe in the presence of a rotavirus coinfection amplifies the need for rotavirus vaccination.

Plesiomonas shigelloides infection, Ecuador, 2004-2008

Diarrheal risk associated with Plesiomonas shigelloides infection was assessed in rural communities in northwestern Ecuador during 2004–2008. We found little evidence that single infection with P. shigelloides is associated with diarrhea but stronger evidence that co-infection with rotavirus causes diarrhea.

In-roads to the spread of antibiotic resistance: regional patterns of microbial transmission in northern coastal Ecuador

The evolution of antibiotic resistance (AR) increases treatment cost and probability of failure, threatening human health worldwide. The relative importance of individual antibiotic use, environmental transmission and rates of introduction of resistant bacteria in explaining community AR patterns is poorly understood. Evaluating their relative importance requires studying a region where they vary. The construction of a new road in a previously roadless area of northern coastal Ecuador provides a valuable natural experiment to study how changes in the social and natural environment affect the epidemiology of resistant Escherichia coli. We conducted seven bi-annual 15 day surveys of AR between 2003 and 2008 in 21 villages. Resistance to both ampicillin and sulphamethoxazole was the most frequently observed profile, based on antibiogram tests of seven antibiotics from 2210 samples. The prevalence of enteric bacteria with this resistance pair in the less remote communities was 80 per cent higher than in more remote communities (OR = 1.8 [1.3, 2.3]). This pattern could not be explained with data on individual antibiotic use. We used a transmission model to help explain this observed discrepancy. The model analysis suggests that both transmission and the rate of introduction of resistant bacteria into communities may contribute to the observed regional scale AR patterns, and that village-level antibiotic use rate determines which of these two factors predominate. While usually conceived as a main effect on individual risk, antibiotic use rate is revealed in this analysis as an effect modifier with regard to community-level risk of resistance.

High prevalence of human liver infection by Amphimerus spp. flukes, Ecuador

Amphimerus spp. flukes are known to infect mammals, but human infections have not been confirmed. Microscopy of fecal samples from 397 persons from Ecuador revealed Opisthorchiidae eggs in 71 (24%) persons. Light microscopy of adult worms and scanning electron microscopy of eggs were compatible with descriptions of Amphimerus spp. This pathogen was only observed in communities that consumed undercooked fish.

Rethinking indicators of microbial drinking water quality for health studies in tropical developing countries: case study in northern coastal Ecuador

To address the problem of the health impacts of unsafe drinking water, methods are needed to assess microbiologic contamination in water. However, indicators of water quality have provided mixed results. We evaluate five assays (three for Escherichia coli and one each for enterococci and somatic coliphage) of microbial contamination in villages in rural Ecuador that rely mostly on untreated drinking water. Only membrane filtration for E. coli using mI agar detected a significant association with household diarrheal disease outcome (odds ratio = 1.29, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.65 in household containers and odds ratio = 1.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.37) in source samples. Our analysis and other published research points to the need for further consideration of study design factors, such as sample size and variability in measurements, when using indicator organisms, especially when relating water quality exposure to health outcomes. Although indicator organisms are used extensively in health studies, we argue that their use requires a full understanding of their purposes and limitations.

Toward a systems approach to enteric pathogen transmission: from individual independence to community interdependence

Diarrheal disease is still a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide; thus a large body of research has been produced describing its risks. We review more than four decades of literature on diarrheal disease epidemiology. These studies detail a progression in the conceptual understanding of transmission of enteric pathogens and demonstrate that diarrheal disease is caused by many interdependent pathways. However, arguments by diarrheal disease researchers in favor of attending to interaction and interdependencies have only recently yielded more formal systems-level approaches. Therefore, interdependence has not yet been highlighted in significant new research initiatives or policy decisions. We argue for a systems-level framework that will contextualize transmission and inform prevention and control efforts so that they can integrate transmission pathways. These systems approaches should be employed to account for community effects (i.e., interactions among individuals and/or households).

Where science meets policy: comparing longitudinal and cross-sectional designs to address diarrhoeal disease burden in the developing world

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal studies are considered preferable to cross-sectional studies for informing public health policy. However, when resources are limited, the trade-off between an accurate cross-section of the population and an understanding of the temporal variation should be optimized. When risk factors vary more across space at a fixed moment in time than at a fixed location across time, cross-sectional studies will tend to give more precise estimates of risk factor effects and thus may be a better source of data for policy judgments.

METHODS

We conducted a diarrhoeal disease surveillance of 5616 individuals within 19 Ecuadorian villages. This data set was used to mimic cross-sectional and longitudinal studies by restricting focus to a single week and a single village, respectively. We compared the variability in risk factor effect estimates produced from each type of study.

RESULTS

For household risk factors, the effect estimates produced by the longitudinal studies were more variable than their cross-sectional counterparts, which can be explained by greater spatial than temporal variability in the risk factor distribution. For example, the effect estimate of improved sanitation was almost twice as variable in longitudinal studies.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, cross-sectional designs yielded more consistent evaluations of diarrhoea disease risk factors when those factors varied more between villages than over time. Cross-sectional studies can provide information that is representative across large geographic regions and therefore can provide insight for local, regional and national policy decisions. The value of the cross-sectional study should be reconsidered in the public health community.

Highways and outposts: economic development and health threats in the central Brazilian Amazon region

Background

Economic development is often evoked as a driving force that has the capacity to improve the social and health conditions of remote areas. However, development projects produce uneven impacts on local communities, according to their different positions within society. This study examines the spatial distribution of three major health threats in the Brazilian Amazon region that may undergo changes through highway construction. Homicide mortality, AIDS incidence and malaria prevalence rates were calculated for 70 municipalities located within the areas of influence of the Cuiabá-Santarém highway (BR-163), i.e. in the western part of the state of Pará state and the northern part of Mato Grosso.

Results

The municipalities were characterized using social and economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), urban and indigenous populations, and recent migration. The municipalities' connections to the region's main transportation routes (BR-163 and Trans-Amazonian highways, along with the Amazon and Tapajós rivers) were identified by tagging the municipalities that have boundaries crossing these routes, using GIS overlay operations. Multiple regression was used to identify the major driving forces and constraints relating to the distribution of health threats. The main explanatory variables for higher malaria prevalence were: proximity to the Trans-Amazonian highway, high proportion of indigenous population and low proportion of migrants. High homicide rates were associated with high proportions of migrants, while connection to the Amazon River played a protective role. AIDS incidence was higher in municipalities with recent increases in GDP and high proportions of urban population.

Conclusions

Highways induce social and environmental changes and play different roles in spreading and maintaining diseases and health threats. The most remote areas are still protected against violence but are vulnerable to malaria. Rapid economic and demographic growth increases the risk of AIDS transmission and violence. Highways connect secluded localities and may threaten local populations. This region has been undergoing rapid localized development booms, thus creating outposts of rapid and temporary migration, which may introduce health risks to remote areas.

Community-based participatory research helps farmers and scientists to manage invasive pests in the Ecuadorian Andes

Participatory research has not been a conspicuous methodology in developing nations for studying invasive pests, an increasing threat to the sustainable development in the tropics. Our study presents a community-based monitoring system that focuses on three invasive potato tuber moth species (PTM). The monitoring was developed and implemented by young farmers in a remote mountainous area of Ecuador. Local participants collected data from the PTM invasion front, which revealed clear connection between the abundance of one of the species (Tecia solanivora) and the remoteness to the main market place. This suggests that mechanisms structuring invasive populations at the invasion front are different from those occurring in areas invaded for longer period. Participatory monitoring with local people may serve as a cost-effective early warning system to detect and control incipient invasive pest species in countries where the daily management of biological resources is largely in the hands of poor rural people.

Drivers of water quality variability in northern coastal Ecuador

Microbiological safety of water is commonly measured using indicator organisms, but the spatiotemporal variability of these indicators can make interpretation of data difficult. Here, we systematically explore the variability in Escherichia coil concentrations in surface source and household drinking water in a rural Ecuadorian village over one year. We observed more variability in water quality on an hourly basis (up to 2.4 log difference) than on a daily (2.2 log difference) or weekly basis (up to 1.8 log difference). E. coli counts were higher in the wet season than in the dry season for source (0.42 log difference, p < 0.0001) and household (0.11 log difference, p = 0.077) samples. In the wet season, a 1 cm increase in weekly rainfall was associated with a 3% decrease (p = 0.006) in E. coli counts in source samples and a 6% decrease (p = 0.012) in household samples. Each additional person in the river when source samples were collected was associated with a 4% increase (p = 0.026) in E. coil counts in the wet season. Factors affecting household water quality included rainfall, water source, and covering the container. The variability can be understood as a combination of environmental (e.g., seasonal and soil processes) and other drivers (e.g., human river use, water practices, and sanitation), each working at different time scales.

Characterization of novel VP7, VP4, and VP6 genotypes of a previously untypeable group A rotavirus

Rotavirus is the most common cause of acute gastroenteritis among infants and young children throughout the world, but rotavirus cases in developing countries account for nearly all of the approximately 600,000 annual deaths. We studied the epidemiology of rotavirus in 22 rural communities in northern coastal Ecuador over a five-year period. From 250 rotavirus positive stool specimens, the percentage that could not be RT-PCR genotyped for VP4 and VP7 was 77% and 63%, respectively. The possibility of sample degradation was considered but discounted after an experimental examination of rotavirus stability and EM visualization of rotavirus-like particles in several untypeable samples. Finally, alternate primers were used to amplify Ecu534, a sample that was untypeable using most published VP4 and VP7 primers. Characterization of the VP7, VP4, and VP6 full gene segments revealed novel genotypes and nucleotide mismatches with most published primer sequences. When considered with other findings, our results suggest that primer mismatch may be a widespread cause of genotyping failure, and might be particularly problematic in countries with greater rotavirus diversity. The novel sequences described in this study have been given GenBank accession numbers EU805775 (VP7), EU805773 (VP4), EU805774 (VP6) and the RCWG has assigned them novel genotypes G20P[28]I13, respectively.

Following the water: a controlled study of drinking water storage in northern coastal Ecuador

BACKGROUND

To design the most appropriate interventions to improve water quality and supply, information is needed to assess water contamination in a variety of community settings, including those that rely primarily on unimproved surface sources of drinking water.

OBJECTIVES

We explored the role of initial source water conditions as well as household factors in determining household water quality, and how levels of contamination of drinking water change over time, in a rural setting in northern coastal Ecuador.

METHODS

We sampled source waters concurrently with water collection by household members and followed this water over time, comparing Escherichia coli and enterococci concentrations in water stored in households with water stored under controlled conditions.

RESULTS

We observed significant natural attenuation of indicator organisms in control containers and significant, although less pronounced, reductions of indicators between the source of drinking water and its point of use through the third day of sampling. These reductions were followed by recontamination in approximately half of the households.

CONCLUSIONS

Water quality improved after water was transferred from the source to household storage containers, but then declined because of recontamination in the home. Our experimental design allowed us to observe these dynamics by controlling for initial source water quality and following changes in water quality over time. These data, because of our controlled experimental design, may explain why recontamination has been reported in the literature as less prominent in areas or households with highly contaminated source waters. Our results also suggest that efforts to improve source water quality and sanitation remain important.

Interactions between macroparasites and microparasites drive infection patterns in free-ranging African buffalo

Epidemiological studies typically focus on single-parasite systems, although most hosts harbor multiple parasite species; thus, the potential impacts of co-infection on disease dynamics are only beginning to be recognized. Interactions between macroparasites, such as gastrointestinal nematodes, and microparasites causing diseases like TB, AIDS, and malaria are particularly interesting because co-infection may favor transmission and progression of these important diseases. Here we present evidence for strong interactions between gastrointestinal worms and bovine tuberculosis (TB) in free-ranging African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). TB and worms are negatively associated at the population, among-herd, and within-herd scales, and this association is not solely the result of demographic heterogeneities in infection. Combining data from 1362 buffalo with simple mechanistic models, we find that both accelerated mortality of co-infected individuals and TB transmission heterogeneity caused by trade-offs in immunity to the two types of parasites likely contribute to observed infection patterns. This study is one of the first to examine the relevance of within-host immunological trade-offs for understanding parasite distribution patterns in natural populations.

Raising the level of analysis of food-borne outbreaks: food-sharing networks in rural coastal Ecuador

OBJECTIVES

Consuming contaminated food is a well-documented individual-level risk factor for diarrheal disease. The sharing of food also influences the distribution of diarrheal disease risk through a community and region. Understanding this social process at a population level is therefore an important dimension of risk not captured by standard individual-level analyses. We examined social networks related to food-sharing in rural villages at 2 scales: within a village, examining whether connections within these networks clustered or were uniformly spread; and among villages, looking at whether food-sharing networks differed according to the village's remoteness from a population center.

METHODS

We surveyed 2129 individuals aged 13 years and older in 2003-2004, within a representative (block-randomized) sample of 21 rural villages in Esmeraldas province, northern coastal Ecuador. We calculated degree (number of social contacts) for a social network defined by sharing food.

RESULTS

Networks of households sharing food differ according to remoteness from a metropolitan center. On average, residents living in "far villages" had 2 more social contacts than those in "close villages," and 12 more years of residence in their village. Estimates of transmissibility (a measure of outbreak potential) based on network structure varied as much as 2-fold across these villages.

CONCLUSIONS

Food-sharing practices link particular households in rural villages and have implications for the spread of food-borne pathogens. The food-sharing networks in remote rural villages are heterogeneous and clustered, consistent with contemporary theories about disease transmitters. Network-based measures may offer tools for predicting patterns of disease outbreaks, as well as guidance for interventions.

Relating diarrheal disease to social networks and the geographic configuration of communities in rural Ecuador

Social networks and geographic structures of communities are important predictors of infectious disease transmission. To examine their joint effects on diarrheal disease and how these effects might develop, the authors analyzed social network and geographic data from northern coastal Ecuador and examined associations with diarrhea prevalence. Between July 2003 and May 2005, 113 cases of diarrhea were identified in nine communities. Concurrently, sociometric surveys were conducted, and households were mapped with geographic information systems. Spatial distribution metrics of households within communities and of communities with respect to roads were developed that predict social network degree in casual contact ("contact") and food-sharing ("food") networks. The mean degree is 25-40% lower in communities with versus without road access and 66-94% lower in communities with lowest versus highest housing density. Associations with diarrheal disease were found for housing density (comparing dense with dispersed communities: risk ratio = 3.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 10.0) and social connectedness (comparing lowest with highest degree communities: risk ratio = 3.4, 95% CI: 1.1, 10.1 in the contact network and risk ratio = 4.9, 95% CI: 1.1, 21.9 in the food network). Some of these differences may be related to more new residents, lower housing density, and less social connectedness in road communities.

Impact of regional climate change on human health

The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.