Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence?

Consistent within-individual plasticity is sufficient to explain temperature responses in red deer reproductive traits

Warming global temperatures are affecting a range of aspects of wild populations, but the exact mechanisms driving associations between temperature and phenotypic traits may be difficult to identify. Here, we use a 36-year data set on a wild population of red deer to investigate the causes of associations between temperature and two important components of female reproduction: timing of breeding and offspring size. By separating within- versus between-individual associations with temperature for each trait, we show that within-individual phenotypic plasticity (changes within a female's lifetime) was entirely sufficient to generate the observed population-level association with temperature at key times of year. However, despite apparently adequate statistical power, we found no evidence of any variation between females in their responses (i.e. no "IxE" interactions). Our results suggest that female deer show plasticity in reproductive traits in response to temperatures in the year leading up to calving and that this response is consistent across individuals, implying no potential for either selection or heritability of plasticity. We estimate that the plastic response to rising temperatures explained 24% of the observed advance in mean calving date over the study period. We highlight the need for comparable analyses of other systems to determine the contribution of within-individual plasticity to population-level responses to climate change.

No evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with selection for smaller body sizes

Reductions in animal body size over recent decades are often interpreted as an adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming. However, for reductions in size to reflect adaptive evolution, directional selection on body size within populations must have become negative, or where already negative, to have become more so, as temperatures increased. To test this hypothesis, we performed traditional and phylogenetic meta-analyses of the association between annual estimates of directional selection on body size from wild populations and annual mean temperatures from 39 longitudinal studies. We found no evidence that warmer environments were associated with selection for smaller size. Instead, selection consistently favoured larger individuals, and was invariant to temperature. These patterns were similar in ectotherms and endotherms. An analysis using year rather than temperature revealed similar patterns, suggesting no evidence that selection has changed over time, and also indicating that the lack of association with annual temperature was not an artefact of choosing an erroneous time window for aggregating the temperature data. Although phenotypic trends in size will be driven by a combination of genetic and environmental factors, our results suggest little evidence for a necessary ingredient-negative directional selection-for declines in body size to be considered an adaptive evolutionary response to changing selection pressures.

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

It is unclear whether species’ responses to climate change tend to be adaptive or sufficient to keep up with climate change. Here, Radchuk et al. perform a meta-analysis showing that in birds phenology has advanced adaptively in some species, though not all the way to the new optima.

Phenological mismatch in Arctic-breeding shorebirds: Impact of snowmelt and unpredictable weather conditions on food availability and chick growth

The ecological consequences of climate change have been recognized in numerous species, with perhaps phenology being the most well-documented change. Phenological changes may have negative consequences when organisms within different trophic levels respond to environmental changes at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between predators and their prey. This may be especially apparent in the Arctic, which has been affected more by climate change than other regions, resulting in earlier, warmer, and longer summers. During a 7-year study near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological mismatch in relation to food availability and chick growth in a community of Arctic-breeding shorebirds experiencing advancement of environmental conditions (i.e., snowmelt). Our results indicate that Arctic-breeding shorebirds have experienced increased phenological mismatch with earlier snowmelt conditions. However, the degree of phenological mismatch was not a good predictor of food availability, as weather conditions after snowmelt made invertebrate availability highly unpredictable. As a result, the food available to shorebird chicks that were 2-10 days old was highly variable among years (ranging from 6.2 to 28.8 mg trap-1 day-1 among years in eight species), and was often inadequate for average growth (only 20%-54% of Dunlin and Pectoral Sandpiper broods on average had adequate food across a 4-year period). Although weather conditions vary among years, shorebirds that nested earlier in relation to snowmelt generally had more food available during brood rearing, and thus, greater chick growth rates. Despite the strong selective pressure to nest early, advancement of nesting is likely limited by the amount of plasticity in the start and progression of migration. Therefore, long-term climatic changes resulting in earlier snowmelt have the potential to greatly affect shorebird populations, especially if shorebirds are unable to advance nest initiation sufficiently to keep pace with seasonal advancement of their invertebrate prey.

Nest microclimate during incubation affects posthatching development and parental care in wild birds

It is widely accepted that recent increases in environmental temperature have had a causal effect on changing life histories; however, much of the evidence for this is derived from long-term observations, whereas inferences of causation require experimentation. Here, we assess effects of increased environmental temperature during incubation on posthatching development, nestling begging and parental care, and reproductive success in two wild, cavity-nesting songbirds, the Carolina wren and prothonotary warbler. We heated experimental nests only during incubation, which increased nest-cavity temperature by ca. 1 °C. This reduced the length of the incubation and nestling periods, and reduced fledging success in prothonotary warblers, while nestling Carolina wrens had similar fledging success but reduced body condition in response to increased temperature. Increased nest-cavity temperature during incubation also reduced posthatching begging by nestlings generally and parental care within Carolina wrens specifically, suggesting potential mechanisms generating these carry-over effects. Offspring body mass and fledging age are often predictive of post-fledging survival and recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that increasing temperatures may affect fitness in wild populations in species-specific ways, and induce life-history changes including the classic trade-off parents face between the size and number of offspring.

Are animals shrinking due to climate change? Temperature-mediated selection on body mass in mountain wagtails

Climate change appears to affect body size of animals whose optimal size in part depends on temperature. However, attribution of observed body size changes to climate change requires an understanding of the selective pressures acting on body size under different temperatures. We examined the link between temperature and body mass in a population of mountain wagtails (Motacilla clara) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, between 1976 and 1999, where temperature increased by 0.18 [Formula: see text]C. The wagtails became lighter by 0.035 g per year. Partitioning this trend, we found that only a small part of the effect (0.009 g/year) was due to individuals losing weight and a large part (0.027 g/year) was due to lighter individuals replacing heavier ones. Only the latter component was statistically significant. Apparently, the wagtails were reacting to selection for reduced weight. Examining survival, we found that selection was temperature-mediated, i.e., lighter individuals survived better under high temperatures, whereas heavier individuals survived better under low temperatures. Our results thus support the hypothesis that temperature drove the decline in body mass in this wagtail population and provides one of the first demonstrations of the selective forces underlying such trends.

Presence of an invasive species reverses latitudinal clines of multiple traits in a native species

Understanding the processes driving formation and maintenance of latitudinal clines has become increasingly important in light of accelerating global change. Many studies have focused on the role of abiotic factors, especially temperature, in generating clines, but biotic factors, including the introduction of non-native species, may also drive clinal variation. We assessed the impact of invasion by predatory fire ants on latitudinal clines in multiple fitness-relevant traits-morphology, physiological stress responsiveness, and antipredator behavior-in a native fence lizard. In areas invaded by fire ants, a latitudinal cline in morphology is opposite both the cline found in museum specimens from historical populations across the species' full latitudinal range and that found in current populations uninvaded by fire ants. Similarly, clines in stress-relevant hormone response to a stressor and in antipredator behavior differ significantly between the portions of the fence lizard range invaded and uninvaded by fire ants. Changes in these traits within fire ant-invaded areas are adaptive and together support increased and more effective antipredator behavior that allows escape from attacks by this invasive predator. However, these changes may mismatch lizards to the environments under which they historically evolved. This research shows that novel biotic pressures can alter latitudinal clines in multiple traits within a single species on ecological timescales. As global change intensifies, a greater understanding of novel abiotic and biotic pressures and how affected organisms adapt to them across space and time will be central to predicting and managing our changing environment.

Rapid sex-specific evolution of age at maturity is shaped by genetic architecture in Atlantic salmon

Understanding the mechanisms by which populations adapt to their environments is a fundamental aim in biology. However, it remains challenging to identify the genetic basis of traits, provide evidence of genetic changes and quantify phenotypic responses. Age at maturity in Atlantic salmon represents an ideal trait to study contemporary adaptive evolution as it has been associated with a single locus in the vgll3 region, and has also strongly changed in recent decades. Here, we provide an empirical example of contemporary adaptive evolution of a large effect locus driving contrasting sex-specific evolutionary responses at the phenotypic level. We identified an 18% decrease in the vgll3 allele associated with late maturity (L) in a large and diverse salmon population over 36 years, induced by sex-specific selection during the sea migration. Those genetic changes resulted in a significant evolutionary response in males only, due to sex-specific dominance patterns and vgll3 allelic effects. The vgll3 allelic and dominance effects differed greatly in a second population and were likely to generate different selection and evolutionary patterns. Our study highlights the importance of knowledge of genetic architecture to better understand fitness trait evolution and phenotypic diversity. It also emphasizes the potential role of adaptive evolution in the trend toward earlier maturation observed in numerous Atlantic salmon populations worldwide.

Body size, developmental instability, and climate change

Development is often temperature-dependent. We hypothesized smaller size and larger asymmetry with increasing temperatures. However, we also predicted associations with asymmetry to differ among traits that differ in their degree of functional importance (especially the functional wings in migratory birds were predicted to be more canalized), timing of development (skeletal [femur, tarsus, and humerus] vs. feather [wing and tail traits]). We analyzed a large dataset of which we included species with at least 20 specimens resulting in 5533 asymmetry values in 1593 individuals from 66 species. There was a consistent significant decrease in size with temperature across all traits. Fluctuating asymmetry (FA) for wings and femur was on average lower, suggesting higher canalization, and it decreased with migration distance, however that was not the case for the other traits. FA increased with increasing temperature for wings, but not for the other characters, where the different responses of different characters to temperature were significant. Because there was no significant three-way interaction between temperature, migration distance, and character, the asymmetry-temperature response was similar in migratory and resident species. These findings imply that climate warming reduces size of all traits and decreases developmental instability of wings in birds.

Development of on-shore behavior among polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea: inherited or learned?

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are experiencing rapid and substantial changes to their environment due to global climate change. Polar bears of the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) have historically spent most of the year on the sea ice. However, recent reports from Alaska indicate that the proportion of the SB subpopulation observed on-shore during late summer and early fall has increased. Our objective was to investigate whether this on-shore behavior has developed through genetic inheritance, asocial learning, or through social learning. From 2010 to 2013, genetic data were collected from SB polar bears in the fall via hair snags and remote biopsy darting on-shore and in the spring from captures and remote biopsy darting on the sea ice. Bears were categorized as either on-shore or off-shore individuals based on their presence on-shore during the fall. Levels of genetic relatedness, first-order relatives, mother-offspring pairs, and father-offspring pairs were determined and compared within and between the two categories: on-shore versus off-shore. Results suggested transmission of on-shore behavior through either genetic inheritance or social learning as there was a higher than expected number of first-order relatives exhibiting on-shore behavior. Genetic relatedness and parentage data analyses were in concurrence with this finding, but further revealed mother-offspring social learning as the primary mechanism responsible for the development of on-shore behavior. Recognizing that on-shore behavior among polar bears was predominantly transmitted via social learning from mothers to their offspring has implications for future management and conservation as sea ice continues to decline.

Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit

Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long-lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time-series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate - and thereby sufficiently rule out - other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate-related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4-decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4-decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life-histories differently.

Between-population differences in the genetic and maternal components of body mass in roe deer

Background

Understanding the genetic and environmental mechanisms governing variation in morphology or phenology in wild populations is currently an important challenge. While there is a general consensus that selection is stronger under stressful conditions, it remains unclear whether the evolutionary potential of traits should increase or decrease with increasingly stressful conditions. Here, we investigate how contrasting environmental conditions during growth may affect the maternal and genetic components of body mass in roe deer, the most abundant and widespread wild ungulate in Western Europe. Body mass is a key life history trait that strongly influences both survival and reproductive performance in large herbivores. We used pedigrees and animal models to determine the variance components of juvenile and adult winter body mass in two populations experiencing contrasting early-life conditions.

Results

Our analyses showed that roe deer at Chizé, where habitat was poor and unpredictable, exhibited very low genetic variance in juvenile body mass. Instead, variance in mass was mainly driven by among-cohort differences in early-life conditions and maternal environment. In contrast, roe deer at Bogesund, where resource availability during the critical period of fawn rearing was higher, displayed a substantial level of genetic variance in body mass. We discuss the potential role of past demography and viability selection on fawn body mass on the erosion of genetic variance in the poor habitat.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the importance of accounting for both spatial (i.e. between-population variation) and temporal (i.e. cohort variation) heterogeneity in environmental conditions, especially in early life, to understand the potential for adaptive responses of wild populations to selection.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-018-1154-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Rule reversal: Ecogeographical patterns of body size variation in the common treeshrew (Mammalia, Scandentia)

There are a number of ecogeographical "rules" that describe patterns of geographical variation among organisms. The island rule predicts that populations of larger mammals on islands evolve smaller mean body size than their mainland counterparts, whereas smaller-bodied mammals evolve larger size. Bergmann's rule predicts that populations of a species in colder climates (generally at higher latitudes) have larger mean body sizes than conspecifics in warmer climates (at lower latitudes). These two rules are rarely tested together and neither has been rigorously tested in treeshrews, a clade of small-bodied mammals in their own order (Scandentia) broadly distributed in mainland Southeast Asia and on islands throughout much of the Sunda Shelf. The common treeshrew, Tupaia glis, is an excellent candidate for study and was used to test these two rules simultaneously for the first time in treeshrews. This species is distributed on the Malay Peninsula and several offshore islands east, west, and south of the mainland. Using craniodental dimensions as a proxy for body size, we investigated how island size, distance from the mainland, and maximum sea depth between the mainland and the islands relate to body size of 13 insular T. glis populations while also controlling for latitude and correlation among variables. We found a strong negative effect of latitude on body size in the common treeshrew, indicating the inverse of Bergmann's rule. We did not detect any overall difference in body size between the island and mainland populations. However, there was an effect of island area and maximum sea depth on body size among island populations. Although there is a strong latitudinal effect on body size, neither Bergmann's rule nor the island rule applies to the common treeshrew. The results of our analyses demonstrate the necessity of assessing multiple variables simultaneously in studies of ecogeographical rules.

Effects of extreme weather on two sympatric Australian passerine bird species

Despite abundant evidence that natural populations are responding to climate change, there are few demonstrations of how extreme climatic events (ECEs) affect fitness. Climate warming increases adverse effects of exposure to high temperatures, but also reduces exposure to cold ECEs. Here, we investigate variation in survival associated with severity of summer and winter conditions, and whether survival is better predicted by ECEs than mean temperatures using data from two coexisting bird species monitored over 37 years in southwestern Australia, red-winged fairy-wrens, Malurus elegans and white-browed scrubwrens, Sericornis frontalis Changes in survival were associated with temperature extremes more strongly than average temperatures. In scrubwrens, winter ECEs were associated with survival within the same season. In both species, survival was associated with body size, and there was evidence that size-dependent mortality was mediated by carry-over effects of climate in the previous season. For fairy-wrens, mean body size declined over time but this could not be explained by size-dependent mortality as the effects of body size on survival were consistently positive. Our study demonstrates how ECEs can have individual-level effects on survival that are not reflected in long-term morphological change, and the same climatic conditions can affect similar-sized, coexisting species in different ways.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

No general relationship between mass and temperature in endothermic species

Bergmann's rule is a widely-accepted biogeographic rule stating that individuals within a species are smaller in warmer environments. While there are many single-species studies and integrative reviews documenting this pattern, a data-intensive approach has not been used yet to determine the generality of this pattern. We assessed the strength and direction of the intraspecific relationship between temperature and individual mass for 952 bird and mammal species. For eighty-seven percent of species, temperature explained less than 10% of variation in mass, and for 79% of species the correlation was not statistically significant. These results suggest that Bergmann's rule is not general and temperature is not a dominant driver of biogeographic variation in mass. Further understanding of size variation will require integrating multiple processes that influence size. The lack of dominant temperature forcing weakens the justification for the hypothesis that global warming could result in widespread decreases in body size.

Scientists have found that individual animals of the same species tend to be smaller in hotter environments and larger in cooler ones. They named this pattern “Bergmann’s Rule” to describe how temperature can influence the size of an animal. However, most studies of Bergmann’s Rule have only looked at one or a few species at a time.

Knowing how many species follow this rule is important because globally rising temperatures could cause lots of species to become smaller. Since the size of organisms affects how much food and space they need, this could disrupt natural systems around the world.

To test if Bergmann’s rule can be extended to many species, Riemer, Guralnick, and White assessed the relationship between temperature and body mass for 952 bird and mammal species. Contrary to Bergmann’s Rule, the results showed that most of the species had similar sizes regardless of the temperature of their environment. Only about 140 species were smaller in hotter environments, and about 70 species were larger in hotter environments. This suggest that Bergmann’s Rule does not apply to most species as expected.

While most birds and mammals may not get bigger or smaller due to warming global temperatures, the few species that do change in size – and the species that interact with them – may be more likely to become endangered or extinct. If we can determine which animals are at risk, we can prioritize their conservation and design better plans for doing so. Losing even a single species disrupts our ecosystems, on which we rely for critical resources like food, building materials, and clean air.

Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient

It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long-lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common-garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change-induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short-term population survival in a changing climate.

Differential responses of body growth to artificial warming between parasitoids and hosts and the consequences for plant seed damage

Temperature increase may disrupt trophic interactions by differentially changing body growth of the species involved. In this study, we tested whether the response of body growth to artificial warming (~2.2 °C) of a solitary koinobiont endo-parasitoid wasp (Pteromalus albipennis, Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) differed from its main host tephritid fly (Tephritis femoralis, Diptera: Tephritidae; pre-dispersal seed predator), and whether the plant seed damage caused by wasp-parasitized and unparasitized maggots (larval flies) were altered by warming. In contrast to the significant and season-dependent effects of warming on body growth of the host tephritid fly reported in one of our previous studies, the effect of artificial warming on body growth was non-significant on the studied wasp. Moreover, the warming effect on seed damage due to unparasitized maggots was significant and varied with season, but the damage by parasitized maggots was not altered by warming. Distinct responses of body growth to warming between parasitoids studied here and hosts assessed in a previous study indicate that temperature increase may differentially affect life history traits of animals along food chains, which is likely to affect trophic interactions.

Higher temperatures during development reduce body size in the zebra finch in the laboratory and in the wild

The most commonly documented morphological response across many taxa to climatic variation across their range follows Bergmann's rule, which predicts larger body size in colder climates. In observational data from wild zebra finches breeding across a range of temperatures in the spring and summer, we show that this relationship appears to be driven by the negative effect of high temperatures during development. This idea was then experimentally tested on zebra finches breeding in temperature-controlled climates in the laboratory. These experiments confirmed that those individualso produced in a hot environment (30 °C) were smaller than those produced in cool conditions (18 °C). Our results suggest a proximate causal link between temperature and body size and suggest that a hotter climate during breeding periods could drive significant changes in morphology within and between populations. This effect could account for much of the variation in body size that drives the well-observed patterns first described by Bergmann and that is still largely attributed to selection on adult body size during cold winters. The climate-dependent developmental plasticity that we have demonstrated is an important component in understanding how endotherms may be affected by climate change.

Parabolic variation in sexual selection intensity across the range of a cold-water pipefish: implications for susceptibility to climate change

While an understanding of evolutionary processes in shifting environments is vital in the context of rapid ecological change, one of the most potent selective forces, sexual selection, remains curiously unexplored. Variation in sexual selection across a species range, especially across a gradient of temperature regimes, has the potential to provide a window into the possible impacts of climate change on the evolution of mating patterns. Here, we investigated some of the links between temperature and indicators of sexual selection, using a cold-water pipefish as model. We found that populations differed with respect to body size, length of the breeding season, fecundity, and sexual dimorphism across a wide latitudinal gradient. We encountered two types of latitudinal patterns, either linear, when related to body size, or parabolic in shape when considering variables related to sexual selection intensity, such as sexual dimorphism and reproductive investment. Our results suggest that sexual selection intensity increases toward both edges of the distribution and that the large differences in temperature likely play a significant role. Shorter breeding seasons in the north and reduced periods for gamete production in the south certainly have the potential to alter mating systems, breeding synchrony, and mate monopolization rates. As latitude and water temperature are tightly coupled across the European coasts, the observed patterns in traits related to sexual selection can lead to predictions regarding how sexual selection should change in response to climate change. Based on data from extant populations, we can predict that as the worm pipefish moves northward, a wave of decreasing selection intensity will likely replace the strong sexual selection at the northern range margin. In contrast, the southern populations will be followed by heightened sexual selection, which may exacerbate the problem of local extinction at this retreating boundary.

Climate change and body size trends in aquatic and terrestrial endotherms: Does habitat matter?

Several studies have claimed that reduction in body size comprises a nearly universal response to global warming; however, doubts about the validity of this pattern for endothermic species have been raised recently. Accordingly, we assessed temporal changes in body mass for 27 bird and 17 mammal species, to evaluate if a reduction in body size during the 20^th century is a widespread phenomenon among endothermic vertebrates. In addition, we tested if there are differences in the temporal change in size between birds and mammals, aquatic and terrestrial species, and the first and second half of the 20^th century. Overall, six species increased their body mass, 21 species showed no significant changes in size, and 17 species decreased their body mass during the 20th century. Temporal changes in body mass were similar for birds and mammals, but strongly differ between aquatic and terrestrial species: while most of the aquatic species increased or did not change in body mass, most terrestrial species decreased in size. In addition, we found that, at least in terrestrial birds, the mean value of the correlation between body mass and year of collection differs between the first half and the second half of the 20^th century, being close to zero for the former period but negative for the later one. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that temporal changes in body mass differ between aquatic and terrestrial species in both mammals and birds.

Temperature-size responses alter food chain persistence across environmental gradients

Body-size reduction is a ubiquitous response to global warming alongside changes in species phenology and distributions. However, ecological consequences of temperature-size (TS) responses for community persistence under environmental change remain largely unexplored. Here, we investigated the interactive effects of warming, enrichment, community size structure and TS responses on a three-species food chain using a temperature-dependent model with empirical parameterisation. We found that TS responses often increase community persistence, mainly by modifying consumer-resource size ratios and thereby altering interaction strengths and energetic efficiencies. However, the sign and magnitude of these effects vary with warming and enrichment levels, TS responses of constituent species, and community size structure. We predict that the consequences of TS responses are stronger in aquatic than in terrestrial ecosystems, especially when species show different TS responses. We conclude that considering the links between phenotypic plasticity, environmental drivers and species interactions is crucial to better predict global change impacts on ecosystem diversity and stability.

Subtle but ubiquitous selection on body size in a natural population of collared flycatchers over 33 years

Understanding the magnitude and long-term patterns of selection in natural populations is of importance, for example, when analysing the evolutionary impact of climate change. We estimated univariate and multivariate directional, quadratic and correlational selection on four morphological traits (adult wing, tarsus and tail length, body mass) over a time period of 33 years (≈ 19 000 observations) in a nest-box breeding population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis). In general, selection was weak in both males and females over the years regardless of fitness measure (fledged young, recruits and survival) with only few cases with statistically significant selection. When data were analysed in a multivariate context and as time series, a number of patterns emerged; there was a consistent, but weak, selection for longer wings in both sexes, selection was stronger on females when the number of fledged young was used as a fitness measure, there were no indications of sexually antagonistic selection, and we found a negative correlation between selection on tarsus and wing length in both sexes but using different fitness measures. Uni- and multivariate selection gradients were correlated only for wing length and mass. Multivariate selection gradient vectors were longer than corresponding vector of univariate gradients and had more constrained direction. Correlational selection had little importance. Overall, the fitness surface was more or less flat with few cases of significant curvature, indicating that the adaptive peak with regard to body size in this species is broader than the phenotypic distribution, which has resulted in weak estimates of selection.

Are long-term widespread avian body size changes related to food availability? A test using contemporaneous changes in carotenoid-based color

Recent changes in global climate have been linked with changes in animal body size. While declines in body size are commonly explained as an adaptive thermoregulatory response to climate warming, many species do not decline in size, and alternative explanations for size change exist. One possibility is that temporal changes in animal body size are driven by changes in environmental productivity and food availability. This hypothesis is difficult to test due to the lack of suitable estimates that go back in time. Here, we use an alternative, indirect, approach and assess whether continent-wide changes over the previous 100 years in body size in 15 species of Australian birds are associated with changes in their yellow carotenoid-based plumage coloration. This type of coloration is strongly affected by food availability because birds cannot synthesize carotenoids and need to ingest them, and because color expression depends on general body condition. We found significant continent-wide intraspecific temporal changes in body size (wing length) and yellow carotenoid-based color (plumage reflectance) for half the species. Direction and magnitude of changes were highly variable among species. Meta-analysis indicated that neither body size nor yellow plumage color showed a consistent temporal trend and that changes in color were not correlated with changes in size over the past 100 years. We conclude that our data provide no evidence that broad-scale variation in food availability is a general explanation for continent-wide changes in body size in this group of species. The interspecific variability in temporal changes in size as well as color suggests that it might be unlikely that a single factor drives these changes, and more detailed studies of museum specimens and long-term field studies are required to disentangle the processes involved.

Differential plasticity of size and mass to environmental change in a hibernating mammal

Morphological changes following changes in species' distribution and phenology have been suggested to be the third universal response to global environmental change. Although structural size and body mass result from different genetic, physiological, and ecological mechanisms, they are used interchangeably in studies evaluating population responses to environmental change. Using a 22-year (1991-2013) dataset including 1768 individuals, we investigated the coupled dynamics of size and mass in a hibernating mammal, the Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota), in response to local environmental conditions. We (i) quantified temporal trends in both traits, (ii) determined the environmental drivers of trait dynamics, and (iii) identified the life-history processes underlying the observed changes. Both phenotypic traits were followed through life: we focused on the initial trait value (juvenile size and mass) and later-life development (annual change in size [Δsize] and mass [Δmass]). First, we demonstrated contrasting dynamics between size and mass over the study period. Juvenile size and subsequent Δsize showed significant declines, whereas juvenile mass and subsequent Δmass remained constant. As a consequence of smaller size associated with a similar mass, individuals were in better condition in recent years. Second, size and mass showed different sensitivities to environmental variables. Both traits benefited from early access to resources in spring, whereas Δmass, particularly in early life, also responded to summer and winter conditions. Third, the interannual variation in both traits was caused by changes in early life development. Our study supports the importance of considering the differences between size and mass responses to the environment when evaluating the mechanisms underlying population dynamics. The current practice of focusing on only one trait in population modeling can lead to misleading conclusions when evaluating species' resilience to contemporary climate change.

Flying high: limits to flight performance by sparrows on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Limits to flight performance at high altitude potentially reflect variable constraints deriving from the simultaneous challenges of hypobaric, hypodense and cold air. Differences in flight-related morphology and maximum lifting capacity have been well characterized for different hummingbird species across elevational gradients, but relevant within-species variation has not yet been identified in any bird species. Here we evaluate load-lifting capacity for Eurasian tree sparrow (Passer montanus) populations at three different elevations in China, and correlate maximum lifted loads with relevant anatomical features including wing shape, wing size, and heart and lung masses. Sparrows were heavier and possessed more rounded and longer wings at higher elevations; relative heart and lung masses were also greater with altitude, although relative flight muscle mass remained constant. By contrast, maximum lifting capacity relative to body weight declined over the same elevational range, while the effective wing loading in flight (i.e. the ratio of body weight and maximum lifted weight to total wing area) remained constant, suggesting aerodynamic constraints on performance in parallel with enhanced heart and lung masses to offset hypoxic challenge. Mechanical limits to take-off performance may thus be exacerbated at higher elevations, which may in turn result in behavioral differences in escape responses among populations.

Archiving Primary Data: Solutions for Long-Term Studies

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers.

Body shrinkage due to Arctic warming reduces red knot fitness in tropical wintering range

Reductions in body size are increasingly being identified as a response to climate warming. Here we present evidence for a case of such body shrinkage, potentially due to malnutrition in early life. We show that an avian long-distance migrant (red knot, Calidris canutus canutus), which is experiencing globally unrivaled warming rates at its high-Arctic breeding grounds, produces smaller offspring with shorter bills during summers with early snowmelt. This has consequences half a world away at their tropical wintering grounds, where shorter-billed individuals have reduced survival rates. This is associated with these molluscivores eating fewer deeply buried bivalve prey and more shallowly buried seagrass rhizomes. We suggest that seasonal migrants can experience reduced fitness at one end of their range as a result of a changing climate at the other end.

Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change

Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence.

Thermoregulation in endotherms: physiological principles and ecological consequences

In a seminal study published nearly 70 years ago, Scholander et al. (Biol Bull 99:259-271, 1950) employed Newton's law of cooling to describe how metabolic rates (MR) in birds and mammals vary predictably with ambient temperature (T a). Here, we explore the theoretical consequences of Newton's law of cooling and show that a thermoregulatory polygon provides an intuitively simple and yet useful description of thermoregulatory responses in endothermic organisms. This polygon encapsulates the region in which heat production and dissipation are in equilibrium and, therefore, the range of conditions in which thermoregulation is possible. Whereas the typical U-shaped curve describes the relationship between T a and MR at rest, thermoregulatory polygons expand this framework to incorporate the impact of activity, other behaviors and environmental conditions on thermoregulation and energy balance. We discuss how this framework can be employed to study the limits to effective thermoregulation and their ecological repercussions, allometric effects and residual variation in MR and thermal insulation, and how thermoregulatory requirements might constrain locomotor or reproductive performance (as proposed, for instance, by the heat dissipation limit theory). In many systems the limited empirical knowledge on how organismal traits may respond to environmental changes prevents physiological ecology from becoming a fully developed predictive science. In endotherms, however, we contend that the lack of theoretical developments that translate current physiological understanding into formal mechanistic models remains the main impediment to study the ecological and evolutionary repercussions of thermoregulation. In spite of the inherent limitations of Newton's law of cooling as an oversimplified description of the mechanics of heat transfer, we argue that understanding how systems that obey this approximation work can be enlightening on conceptual grounds and relevant as an analytical and predictive tool to study ecological phenomena. As such, the proposed approach may constitute a powerful tool to study the impact of thermoregulatory constraints on variables related to fitness, such as survival and reproductive output, and help elucidating how species will be affected by ongoing climate change.

Rethinking biogeographic patterns: high local variation in relation to latitudinal clines for a widely distributed species

Wide-ranging species typically differ morphologically across their ranges. Bergmann's rule suggests that taxa in colder environments are bigger than related taxa in warmer locations. We examined 767 painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) in ten populations near their northwestern range edge in south-central British Columbia, Canada, in conjunction with previous data, to test the hypotheses of (1) a Bergmann's latitudinal cline, and (2) that males and females show similar latitudinal variation in size. We also explicitly test the impact of high local variation on range-wide inference. Female and male turtles showed similar latitudinal clines in body size; the degree of sexual dimorphism did not change across the range. Importantly, local variation in sexual dimorphism across ponds was nearly as high as the previously observed continental variation. Indeed, we found both the lowest and the highest degrees of sexual size dimorphism that have ever been reported for this species. Further, differing criteria in the literature for identifying mature females compound the difficulty of interpreting latitudinal clines in size or dimorphism. Our results highlight the need for much more systematic local and regional sampling as inputs for latitudinal or other comparative analyses such as Rensch's rule because insufficient sampling of high local variation may mask important ecological and evolutionary patterns.

Linking macrotrends and microrates: Re-evaluating microevolutionary support for Cope's rule

Cope's rule, wherein a lineage increases in body size through time, was originally motivated by macroevolutionary patterns observed in the fossil record. More recently, some authors have argued that evidence exists for generally positive selection on individual body size in contemporary populations, providing a microevolutionary mechanism for Cope's rule. If larger body size confers individual fitness advantages as the selection estimates suggest, thereby explaining Cope's rule, then body size should increase over microevolutionary time scales. We test this corollary by assembling a large database of studies reporting changes in phenotypic body size through time in contemporary populations, as well as studies reporting average breeding values for body size through time. Trends in body size were quite variable with an absence of any general trend, and many populations trended toward smaller body sizes. Although selection estimates can be interpreted to support Cope's rule, our results suggest that actual rates of phenotypic change for body size cannot. We discuss potential reasons for this discrepancy and its implications for the understanding of Cope's rule.

Adherence to Bergmann's rule by lizards may depend on thermoregulatory mode: support from a nocturnal gecko

Bergmann's rule predicts an increase in body size with decreasing environmental temperature; however, the converse pattern has been found in the majority of lizards studied to date. For these ectotherms, small body size may provide thermal benefits (rapid heat uptake when basking), which would be highly advantageous in cold environments. Yet such an advantage may not exist in nocturnal lizards (which do not avidly bask), in which Bergmann's rule has not been closely studied. We have examined whether the body size of a primarily nocturnal gecko, Woodworthia "Otago/Southland" changed with elevation and operative temperature (determined using physical copper models). In a laboratory study, we investigated whether thermoregulatory mode (heliothermy or thigmothermy) alters the effect of body size on heating and cooling rates. This gecko followed Bergmann's rule, thereby showing the opposite of the dominant pattern in diurnal lizards. Size at maturity, maximum size of adults and size at birth were larger at higher elevations and at lower operative temperatures. Using physical models, we found that large body size can confer thermal benefits for nocturnal lizards that remain within diurnal retreats. Bergmann's rule should not be dismissed for all lizards. Our results clearly support Bergmann's rule for at least one thigmothermic species, for which large body size may provide thermal benefits. Future studies on Bergmann's rule in lizards should consider thermoregulatory mode. We advocate that this ecogeographic rule be examined in relation to operative temperature measured at field sites. Finally, we predict that climate warming may weaken the relationship between body size and elevation in this gecko.

Severe recent decrease of adult body mass in a declining insectivorous bird population

Migratory bird species that feed on air-borne insects are experiencing widespread regional declines, but these remain poorly understood. Agricultural intensification in the breeding range is often regarded as one of the main drivers of these declines. Here, we tested the hypothesis that body mass in breeding individuals should reflect habitat quality in an aerial insectivore, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a gradient of agricultural intensity. Our dataset was collected over 7 years (2005-2011) and included 2918 swallow captures and 1483 broods. Analyses revealed a substantial decline of the population over the course of the study (-19% occupancy rate), mirrored by decreasing body mass. This trend was especially severe in females, representing a total loss of 8% of their mass. Reproductive success was negatively influenced by intensive agriculture, but did not decrease over time. Interestingly, variation in body mass was independent of breeding habitat quality, leading us to suggest that this decline in body mass may result from carry-over effects from non-breeding areas and affect population dynamics through reduced survival. This work contributes to the growing body of evidence suggesting that declines in migratory aerial insectivores are driven by multiple, complex factors requiring better knowledge of year-round habitat use.

Responses of large mammals to climate change

Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.

Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: the problem and the evidence

Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy and uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference in such studies. First, it has proven difficult to conclusively distinguish whether phenotypic changes are genetically based or the result of phenotypic plasticity. Second, whether or not the change is adaptive is usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that climate change is the specific causal agent have rarely involved the testing – and exclusion – of other potential drivers. We here review the various ways in which the above inferences have been attempted, and evaluate the strength of support that each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets the stage for 11 accompanying review articles that attempt comprehensive syntheses of what is currently known – and not known – about responses to climate change in a variety of taxa and in theory. Summarizing and relying on the results of these reviews, we arrive at the conclusion that evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change has been found in some systems, but is still relatively scarce. Most importantly, it is clear that more studies are needed – and these must employ better inferential methods – before general conclusions can be drawn. Overall, we hope that the present paper and special issue provide inspiration for future research and guidelines on best practices for its execution.

Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses

Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made.