Towards a combined prognostic index for survival in HIV infection: the role of 'non-HIV' biomarkers

Psychiatric symptom burden in older people living with HIV with and without cognitive impairment: the UCSF HIV over 60 cohort study

Psychiatric comorbidities are common in people living with HIV (PLWH) and adversely affect life satisfaction, treatment adherence and disease progression. There are few data to inform the burden of psychiatric symptoms in older PLWH, a rapidly growing demographic in the U.S. We performed a cross-sectional analysis to understand the degree to which symptom burden was associated with cognitive disorders in PLWH over age 60. Participants completed a standardized neuropsychological battery and were assigned cognitive diagnoses using Frascati criteria. We captured psychiatric symptom burden using the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) and proxy-informed Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Questionnaire (NPI-Q). Those diagnosed with HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND, n = 39) were similar to those without HAND (n = 35) by age (median = 67 years for each group, p = 0.696), education (mean = 16 years vs. 17 years, p = 0.096), CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts (mean = 520 vs. 579, p = 0.240), duration of HIV (median = 21 years for each group, p = 0.911) and sex (92% male in HAND vs. 97% in non-HAND, p = 0.617). Our findings showed similarities in HAND and non-HAND groups on both NPI-Q (items and clusters) and GDS scores. However, there was a greater overall symptom burden in HIV compared to healthy elder controls (n = 236, p < 0.05), with more frequent agitation, depression, anxiety, apathy, irritability and nighttime behavior disturbances (p < 0.05). Our findings demonstrate no differences in psychiatric comorbidity by HAND status in older HIV participants; but confirm a substantial neurobehavioral burden in this older HIV-infected population.

Chronic pain disorders in HIV primary care: clinical characteristics and association with healthcare utilization

Chronic pain is common in HIV, but incompletely characterized, including its underlying etiologies, its effect on healthcare utilization, and the characteristics of affected patients in the HIV primary care setting. These data are needed to design and justify appropriate clinic-based pain management services. Using a clinical data warehouse, we analyzed one year of data from 638 patients receiving standard-of-care antiretroviral therapy in a large primary care HIV clinic, located in the Harlem neighborhood of New York City. We found that 40% of patients carried one or more chronic pain diagnoses. The most common diagnoses were degenerative musculoskeletal disorders (eg, degenerative spinal disease and osteoarthritis), followed by neuropathic pain and headache disorders. Many patients (16%) had multiple chronic pain diagnoses. Women, older patients, and patients with greater burdens of medical illness, and psychiatric and substance use comorbidities were disproportionately represented among those with chronic pain diagnoses. Controlling for overall health status, HIV patients with chronic pain had greater healthcare utilization including emergency department visits and radiology procedures. In summary, our study demonstrates the high prevalence of chronic pain disorders in the primary care HIV clinic. Colocated interventions for chronic pain in this setting should not only focus on musculoskeletal pain but also account for complex multifaceted pain syndromes, and address the unique biopsychosocial features of this population. Furthermore, because chronic pain is prevalent in HIV and associated with increased healthcare utilization, developing clinic-based pain management programs could be cost-effective.

Frailty in HIV: Epidemiology, Biology, Measurement, Interventions, and Research Needs

Frailty is a critical aging-related syndrome marked by diminished physiologic reserve and heightened vulnerability to stressors, predisposing to major adverse clinical outcomes, including hospitalization, institutionalization, disability, and death in the general population of older adults. As the proportion of older adults living with HIV increases in the era of antiretroviral therapy, frailty is increasingly recognized to be of significant clinical and public health relevance to the HIV-infected population. This article reviews current knowledge on the epidemiology and biology of frailty and its potential role as a target for reducing disparities in outcomes in HIV; conceptual frameworks and current approaches to frailty measurement; existing data on frailty interventions; and important areas for future research focus necessary to develop and advance effective strategies to prevent or ameliorate frailty and its marked adverse consequences among people living with HIV.

The Starting Treatment for Ethanol in Primary care Trials (STEP Trials): Protocol for Three Parallel Multi-Site Stepped Care Effectiveness Studies for Unhealthy Alcohol Use in HIV-Positive Patients

Unhealthy alcohol use is common among HIV-positive patients, yet effective evidence-based treatments are rarely provided in clinical settings providing HIV care. Further, given patient variability in response to initial treatments, stepped care approaches may be beneficial. We describe the rationale, aims and study design for the current StartingTreatment forEthanol inPrimary care Trials (STEP Trials); three parallel randomized controlled effectiveness trials being conducted in five Infectious Disease Clinics. Participants meeting criteria for: 1) at-risk drinking, 2) moderate alcohol use with liver disease (MALD), or 3) alcohol use disorder (AUD) are randomized to integrated stepped care versus treatment as usual. For those with at-risk drinking or MALD, integrated stepped care starts with a one session brief intervention and follow-up 2-week telephone booster. Based on pre-specified nonresponse criteria, participants may be "stepped up" at week 4 to receive four sessions of motivational enhancement therapy (MET) and "stepped up" again at week 12 for addiction physician management (APM) and consideration of alcohol pharmacotherapy. For those with AUD, integrated stepped care begins with APM. Non-responders may be "stepped up" at week 4 to receive MET and again at week 12 for a higher level of care (e.g. intensive outpatient program). The primary outcome is alcohol consumption assessed at 24weeks, and secondary outcome is the VACS Index, a validated measure of HIV morbidity and mortality risk. Results from the STEP Trials should inform future research and the implementation of interventions to address unhealthy alcohol use among HIV-positive individuals.

The impact of prescribed opioids on CD4 cell count recovery among HIV-infected patients newly initiating antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES

Certain prescribed opioids have immunosuppressive properties, yet their impact on clinically relevant outcomes, including antiretroviral therapy (ART) response among HIV-infected patients, remains understudied.

METHODS

Using the Veterans Aging Cohort Study data, we conducted a longitudinal analysis of 4358 HIV-infected patients initiating ART between 2002 and 2010 and then followed them for 24 months. The primary independent variable was prescribed opioid duration, categorized using pharmacy data as none prescribed, short-term (< 90 days) and long-term (≥ 90 days). Outcomes included CD4 cell count over time. Analyses adjusted for demographics, comorbid conditions, ART type and year of initiation, and overall disease severity [ascertained with the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index]. Sensitivity analyses examined whether effects varied according to baseline CD4 cell count, achievement of viral load suppression, and opioid properties (i.e. dose and known immunosuppressive properties).

RESULTS

Compared to those with none, patients with short-term opioids had a similar increase in CD4 cell count (mean rise per year: 74 vs. 68 cells/μL; P = 0.11), as did those with long-term prescribed opioids (mean rise per year: 74 vs. 75 cells/μL; P = 0.98). In sensitivity analysis, compared with no opioids, the effects of short-term prescribed opioids were statistically significant among those with a baseline CD4 cell count ≥ 500 cells/μL (mean rise per year: 52 cells/μL for no opioids vs. 20 cells/μL for short-term opioids; P = 0.04); findings were otherwise unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite immunosuppressive properties intrinsic to opioids, prescribed opioids appeared to have no effect on CD4 cell counts over 24 months among HIV-infected patients initiating ART.

Assessment of geriatric syndromes and physical function in people living with HIV

As the number of older adults living with HIV continues to increase, understanding how to incorporate geriatric assessments within HIV care will be critical. Assessment of geriatric syndromes and physical function can be useful tools for HIV clinicians and researchers to help identify the most vulnerable older adults and to better understand the aging process in people living with HIV (PLWH). This review focuses on the assessment of falls, frailty, and physical function, first in the general population of older adults, and includes a specific focus on use of these assessments in older adults living with HIV.

The impact of ethnicity/race on the association between the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index and neurocognitive function among HIV-infected persons

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index was developed as a risk index for health outcomes in HIV, and it has been consistently associated with mortality. It shows a significant, yet relatively weak, association with neurocognitive impairment, and little is known about its utility among ethnic/racial minority groups. We examined whether the association between the VACS Index and neurocognition differed by ethnic/racial group. Participants included 674 HIV-infected individuals (369 non-Hispanic whites, 111 non-Hispanic blacks, and 194 Hispanics). Neurocognitive function was assessed via a comprehensive battery. Scaled scores for each neurocognitive test were averaged to calculate domain and global neurocognitive scores. Models adjusting for demographics and HIV disease characteristics not included in the VACS Index showed that higher VACS Index scores (indicating poorer health) were significantly associated with worse global neurocognition among non-Hispanic whites. This association was comparable in non-Hispanic blacks, but nonsignificant among Hispanics (with similar results for English and Spanish speaking). We obtained comparable findings in analyses adjusting for other covariates (psychiatric and medical comorbidities and lifestyle factors). Analyses of individual neurocognitive domains showed similar results in learning and delayed recall. For other domains, there was an effect of the VACS Index and no significant interactions with race/ethnicity. Different components of the VACS Index were associated with global neurocognition by race/ethnicity. In conclusion, the association between the VACS Index and neurocognitive function differs by ethnic/racial group. Identifying key indicators of HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment by ethnic/racial group might play an important role in furthering our understanding of the biomarkers of neuroAIDS.

[GeSIDA quality care indicators associated with mortality and hospital admission for the care of persons infected by HIV/AIDS]

INTRODUCTION

In 2010, the AIDS Study Group (Grupo de Estudio del SIDA [GESIDA]) developed 66 quality care indicators. The aim of this study is to determine which of these indicators are associated with mortality and hospital admission, and to perform a preliminary assessment of a prediction rule for mortality and hospital admission in patients on treatment and follow-up.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Hospital Universitario Son Espases (Palma de Mallorca, Spain). Eligible participants were patients with human immunodeficiency syndrome≥18 years old who began follow-up in the Infectious Disease Section between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2012. A descriptive analysis was performed to evaluate anthropometric variables, and a logistic regression analysis to assess the association between GESIDA indicators and mortality/admission. The mortality probability model was built using logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 1,944 adults were eligible (median age: 37 years old, 78.8% male). In the multivariate analysis, the quality of care indicators associated with mortality in the follow-up patient group were the items 7, 16 and 20, and in the group of patients on treatment were 7, 16, 20, 35, and 38. The quality of care indicators associated with hospital admissions in the follow-up patients group were the same as those in the mortality analysis, plus number 31. In the treatment group the associated quality of care indicators were items 7, 16, 20, 35, 38, and 40.

CONCLUSIONS

Some GeSIDA quality of care indicators were associated with mortality and/or hospital admissions. These indicators are associated with delayed diagnosis, regular monitoring, prevention of infections, and control of comorbidities.

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index and Neurocognitive Change: A Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index, a composite marker of disease severity among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons, has been associated with concurrent risk for neurocognitive impairment (NCI). The present study examined whether the VACS Index predicts longitudinal neurocognitive change.

METHODS

Participants included 655 HIV-infected persons followed for up to 6 years in cohort studies at the University of California, San Diego, HIV Neurobehavioral Research Program (mean age at baseline, 42.5 years; 83% male; 60% white; AIDS in 67%; median current CD4(+) T-cell count, 346/μL; 61% receiving antiretroviral therapy). The VACS Index was calculated through standard methods. Participants completed a comprehensive neurocognitive battery. Neurocognitive status was plotted over time using demographically and practice-adjusted global and domain T scores. NCI was defined by global deficit scores derived from T scores.

RESULTS

Baseline VACS Index scores were not predictive of changes in global T scores during the follow-up period (P = .14). However, in time-dependent analyses adjusting for covariates, higher VACS Index scores were significantly associated with worse global and domain neurocognitive performance (Ps < .01), as well as increased risk for developing NCI in a subgroup of persons who were neurocognitively normal at baseline (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17; P < .001). We categorized VACS Index scores by quartiles and found that the upper-quartile group was significantly more likely to develop NCI than the lower quartile (HR, 2.16; P < .01) and middle groups (HR, 1.76; P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in VACS Index scores correspond to changes in neurocognitive function. HIV-infected persons with high VACS Index scores are at increased risk for decline and incident NCI. The VACS Index shows promise as a tool for identifying HIV-infected persons at risk for NCI.

The Association Between Receipt of Guideline-Concordant Long-Term Opioid Therapy and All-Cause Mortality

PURPOSE

For patients receiving long-term opioid therapy (LtOT), the impact of guideline-concordant care on important clinical outcomes--notably mortality--is largely unknown, even among patients with a high comorbidity and mortality burden (e.g., HIV-infected patients). Our objective was to determine the association between receipt of guideline-concordant LtOT and 1-year all-cause mortality.

METHODS

Among HIV-infected and uninfected patients initiating LtOT between 2000 and 2010 through the Department of Veterans Affairs, we used Cox regression with time-updated covariates and propensity-score matched analyses to examine the association between receipt of guideline-concordant care and 1-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Of 17,044 patients initiating LtOT between 2000 and 2010, 1048 patients (6%) died during 1 year of follow-up. Patients receiving psychotherapeutic co-interventions (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.51-0.75; P < 0.001) or physical rehabilitative therapies (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.67-0.98; P = 0.03) had a decreased risk of all-cause mortality compared to patients not receiving these services, whereas patients prescribed benzodiazepines concurrent with opioids had a higher risk of mortality (HR 1.39; 95% CI 1.12-1.66; P < 0.001). Among patients with a current substance use disorder (SUD), those receiving SUD treatment had a lower risk of mortality than untreated patients (HR 0.47; 95% CI 0.32-0.68; P = < 0.001). No association was found between all-cause mortality and primary care visits (HR 1.12; 95% CI 0.90-1.26; P = 0.32) or urine drug testing (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.78-1.17; P = 0.67).

CONCLUSIONS

Providers should use caution in initiating LtOT in conjunction with benzodiazepines and untreated SUDs. Patients receiving LtOT may benefit from multi-modal treatment that addresses chronic pain and its associated comorbidities across multiple disciplines.

Number of Drinks to "Feel a Buzz" by HIV Status and Viral Load in Men

The impact of HIV and its treatment on the effects of alcohol remain unclear. Blood alcohol concentrations have been noted to be higher in HIV infected individuals prior to antiretroviral initiation. Our goal was to compare number of drinks to "feel a buzz or high" among HIV infected and uninfected men, stratified by viral load (VL) suppression. Data includes 1478 HIV infected and 1170 uninfected men in the veterans aging cohort study who endorsed current drinking. Mean (SD) number of drinks to feel a buzz was 3.1 (1.7) overall. In multivariable analyses, HIV infected men reported a lower mean number of drinks to feel a buzz compared to uninfected men (coef = -14 for VL < 500; -34 for VL ≥ 500; p ≤ .05). Men with HIV, especially those with a detectable VL, reported fewer drinks to feel a buzz. Future research on the relationship between alcohol and HIV should consider the role of VL suppression.

Gender-Related Risk Factors Improve Mortality Predictive Ability of VACS Index Among HIV-Infected Women

BACKGROUND

Adding gender-related modifiable characteristics or behaviors to the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) index might improve the accuracy of predicting mortality among HIV-infected women on treatment. We evaluated the VACS index in women with HIV, determined whether additional variables would improve mortality prediction, and quantified the potential for improved survival associated with reduction in these additional risk factors.

METHODS

The VACS index (based on age, CD4 count, HIV-1 RNA, hemoglobin, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, platelets, creatinine, and Hepatitis C status) was validated in HIV-infected women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) who initiated antiretroviral therapy between January 1996 and December 2007. Models were constructed adding race, depression, abuse, smoking, substance use, transactional sex, and comorbidities to determine whether predictability improved. Population attributable fractions were calculated.

RESULTS

The VACS index accurately predicted 5-year mortality in 1057 WIHS women with 1 year on highly active antiretroviral therapy with c-index 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.79 to 0.87]. In multivariate analysis, the VACS index score [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for a 5-point increment 1.30; 95% CI: 1.25 to 1.35], depressive symptoms (aHR 1.73; 95% CI: 1.17 to 2.56), and history of transactional sex (aHR 1.93; 95% CI: 1.33 to 1.82) were independent statistically significant predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Both depression and transactional sex significantly improved the performance of the VACS index in predicting mortality among HIV-infected women. Providing treatment for depression and addressing economic and psychosocial instability in HIV-infected women would improve health and perhaps point to a broader public health approach to reducing HIV mortality.

Implementation of integrated stepped care for unhealthy alcohol use in HIV clinics

Background

Effective counseling and pharmacotherapy for unhealthy alcohol use are rarely provided in HIV treatment settings to patients. Our goal was to describe factors influencing implementation of a stepped care model to address unhealthy alcohol use in HIV clinics from the perspectives of social workers, psychologists and addiction psychiatrists.

Methods

We conducted two focus groups with Social Workers (n = 4), Psychologists (n = 2), and Addiction Psychiatrists (n = 4) involved in an ongoing randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of integrated stepped care for unhealthy alcohol use in HIV-infected patients at five Veterans Health Administration (VA) HIV clinics. Data collection and analyses were guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) domains, with a focus on the three domains which we considered to be most relevant: intervention characteristics (i.e. motivational interviewing, pharmacotherapy), the inner setting (i.e. HIV clinics), and characteristics of individuals (i.e. the providers). A multidisciplinary team used directed content analysis to identify major themes.

Results

From the providers’ perspective, the major implementation themes that emerged by CFIR domain included: (1) Intervention characteristics: providers valued tools and processes for facilitating patient motivation for treatment of unhealthy alcohol use given their perceived lack of motivation, but expressed a desire for greater flexibility; (2) Inner setting: treating unhealthy alcohol use in HIV clinics was perceived by providers to be consistent with VA priorities; and (3) Characteristics of individuals: there was high self-efficacy to conduct the intervention, an expressed need for more consistent utilization to maintain skills, and consideration of alternative models for delivering the components of the intervention.

Conclusions

Use of the CFIR framework reveals that implementation of integrated stepped care for unhealthy alcohol use in HIV clinics is facilitated by tools to help providers enhance patient motivation or address unhealthy alcohol use among patients perceived to be unmotivated. Implementation may be facilitated by its consistency with organizational values and existing models of care and attention to optimizing provider self-efficacy and roles (i.e. approaches to treatment integration).

The Silent Epidemic - Frailty and Aging with HIV

As the number of older adults with HIV increases, this population is experiencing an increased risk for frailty. While there is no single definition or diagnostic criteria for frailty, it is generally recognized as an accumulation of deficits in functional capacity and ability to perform activities of daily living. Frailty may be present in up to half of older adults living with HIV, and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality risk in this group. Frailty in HIV can either be transient, and linked to the status of HIV infection, or resemble a more typical gradual decline in functional capacity. Frailty risk in HIV may be exacerbated by mitochondrial dysfunction, chronic inflammation, and oxidative stress. Several tools have been developed and adapted to assess different domains of frailty, yet medical treatment of this condition can be complex and should consider management of polypharmacy as well as nutrition and exercise interventions. However, few concrete strategies have been developed to prevent or treat frailty in the context of HIV infection. This review summarizes what is currently known about the prevalence, diagnosis, and management of frailty among older adults living with HIV.

Recalibrating the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score to Improve Prediction of Transplant-Free Survival in Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. However, the cutpoints for stratifying laboratory variables in CTP have never been validated.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to identify evidence-based cutpoints for the CTP laboratory subscores to improve its predictive capacity for transplant-free survival.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

DATA SOURCE

Using a cohort of 30,897 cirrhotic US Veteran patients with at least 5 years of follow-up, we performed Cox proportional hazard survival model iterations varying the upper and lower cutpoints for INR, total bilirubin and albumin CTP subscores. Cutpoints yielding the highest Harrell's C-statistics for concordance with transplant-free survival were incorporated into a modified CTP (mCTP) score. Validation of the mCTP was performed at multiple time frames within the follow-up period of the cohort and within subsets defined by disease etiology.

RESULTS

Modification of CTP cutpoints increased the Harrell's C-statistic for age- and gender-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models from 0.701 ± 0.002 to 0.709 ± 0.002 and the risk ratio per unit change from 1.49 (1.48-1.50) to 1.53 (1.52-1.54). The modified cutpoints showed superiority in predicting 5-year transplant-free survival in various disease etiology subgroups. A mCTP substituting serum creatinine for INR performed superiorly for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival.

CONCLUSION

We propose an evidence-based recalibration of CTP score cutpoints that optimizes this model's capacity to predict transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis. The CTP score remains the best predictor of 5-year overall and transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis.

[Aging and influence of inversion of the CD4:CD8 ratio in the incidence of co-morbidities and mortality in a cohort of patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

It has been postulated that the inversion of the CD4:CD8 ratio as a hallmark of immunosenescence can be an independent factor that can herald the risk of co-morbidities. We studied the influence of aging and inversion of the CD4:CD8 ratio in the incidence of comorbidities and mortality in the cohort of Hosptital Severo Ochoa.

METHODS

We analyzed the differences in the incidence rates of age-adjusted morbidities and evaluated the inversion of the CD4:CD8 ratio as predictor of mortality and development of comorbidities.

RESULTS

Age was associated with an increased incidence rate of diabetes mellitus, fractures, COPD and non-AIDS malignancies. We found an increased incidence rate of non-AIDS clinical events (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.025-4.94) and AIDS events (OR 3.48; 95% CI 1.58-7.64) in individuals with CD4:CD8 ratio<0.7. Moreover, patients with a CD4:CD8 ratio<0.7 ratio had a higher risk of mortality (OR 5.96; 95% CI 0.73 to 48.40).

CONCLUSION

It is important to detect and prevent non-AIDS comorbidities in the presence of a CD4:CD8 ratio<0.7.

Elevated Biomarkers of Inflammation and Coagulation in Patients with HIV Are Associated with Higher Framingham and VACS Risk Index Scores

Background

Biomarkers of inflammation and altered coagulation are of increasing interest as predictors of chronic disease and mortality in HIV patients, as well as the use of risk stratification scores such as the Framingham index and the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) score.

Methods

Demographic and laboratory data for 252 HIV patients were assessed for their relationship with 5 biomarkers: hsCRP, D-dimer, Cystatin C, IL-6 and TNF-alpha. Analysis of variance was used to model the association between the number of elevated biomarkers patients had and their Framingham 10 year cardiovascular risk and VACS scores.

Results

87% of patients were male and 75.7% were virally suppressed (HIV RNA <48 copies/ml). The median and interquartile ranges for each biomarker were: hsCRP 1.65 ug/mL (0.73, 3.89), D-dimer 0.17 ug/mL (0.09, 0.31), Cystatin C 0.87 mg/L (0.78, 1.01), IL-6 2.13 pg/mL (1.3, 3.59), TNF-alpha 4.65 pg/mL (3.5, 5.97). 62.6% of patients had more than one biomarker >75^th percentile, while 18.6% had three or more elevated biomarkers. Increased age, cigarette smoking, CD4 counts of <200 cells/mm³, Framingham scores and VACS scores were most strongly associated with elevations in biomarkers. When biomarkers were used to predict the Framingham and VACS scores, those with a higher number of elevated biomarkers had higher mean VACS scores, with a similar but less robust finding for Framingham scores.

Conclusions

Despite viral suppression and immunological stability, biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation remain elevated in a significant number of patients with HIV and are associated with higher scores on risk stratification indices.

Development and Performance of an Algorithm to Estimate the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score From a National Electronic Healthcare Database

BACKGROUND & METHODS

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. The CTP score is a composite of 5 subscores, 3 based on objective clinical laboratory values and 2 subjective variables quantifying the severity of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy. To date, no system to quantify CTP score from administrative databases has been validated. The Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease study is a multicenter collaborative study to evaluate the outcomes and costs of hepatocellular carcinoma in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration. We developed and validated an algorithm to calculate electronic CTP (eCTP) scores by using data from the Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse.

METHODS

Multiple algorithms for determining each CTP subscore from International Classification of Diseases version 9, Common Procedural Terminology, pharmacy, and laboratory data were devised and tested in 2 patient cohorts. For each cohort, 6 site investigators (Boston, Bronx, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and West Haven VA Medical Centers) were provided cases from which to determine validity of diagnosis, laboratory data, and clinical assessment of ascites and encephalopathy. The optimal algorithm (designated eCTP) was then applied to 30,840 cirrhotic patients alive in the first quarter of 2008 for whom 5-year overall and transplant-free survival data were available. The ability of the eCTP score and other disease severity scores (Charlson-Deyo index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study index, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and Cirrhosis Comorbidity) to predict survival was then assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Spearman correlations for administrative and investigator validated laboratory data in the HCC and cirrhotic cohorts, respectively, were 0.85 and 0.92 for bilirubin, 0.92 and 0.87 for albumin, and 0.84 and 0.86 for international normalized ratio. In the HCC cohort, the overall eCTP score matched 96% of patients to within 1 point of the chart-validated CTP score (Spearman correlation, 0.81). In the cirrhosis cohort, 98% were matched to within 1 point of their actual CTP score (Spearman, 0.85). When applied to a cohort of 30,840 patients with cirrhosis, each unit change in eCTP was associated with 39% increase in the relative risk of death or transplantation. The Harrell C statistic for the eCTP (0.678) was numerically higher than those for other disease severity indices for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival. Adding other predictive models to the eCTP resulted in minimal differences in its predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated an algorithm to extrapolate an eCTP score from data in a large administrative database with excellent correlation to actual CTP score on chart review. When applied to an administrative database, this algorithm is a highly useful predictor of survival when compared with multiple other published liver disease severity indices.

Development and Performance of an Algorithm to Estimate the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score From a National Electronic Healthcare Database

BACKGROUND & METHODS

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. The CTP score is a composite of 5 subscores, 3 based on objective clinical laboratory values and 2 subjective variables quantifying the severity of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy. To date, no system to quantify CTP score from administrative databases has been validated. The Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease study is a multicenter collaborative study to evaluate the outcomes and costs of hepatocellular carcinoma in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration. We developed and validated an algorithm to calculate electronic CTP (eCTP) scores by using data from the Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse.

METHODS

Multiple algorithms for determining each CTP subscore from International Classification of Diseases version 9, Common Procedural Terminology, pharmacy, and laboratory data were devised and tested in 2 patient cohorts. For each cohort, 6 site investigators (Boston, Bronx, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and West Haven VA Medical Centers) were provided cases from which to determine validity of diagnosis, laboratory data, and clinical assessment of ascites and encephalopathy. The optimal algorithm (designated eCTP) was then applied to 30,840 cirrhotic patients alive in the first quarter of 2008 for whom 5-year overall and transplant-free survival data were available. The ability of the eCTP score and other disease severity scores (Charlson-Deyo index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study index, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and Cirrhosis Comorbidity) to predict survival was then assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Spearman correlations for administrative and investigator validated laboratory data in the HCC and cirrhotic cohorts, respectively, were 0.85 and 0.92 for bilirubin, 0.92 and 0.87 for albumin, and 0.84 and 0.86 for international normalized ratio. In the HCC cohort, the overall eCTP score matched 96% of patients to within 1 point of the chart-validated CTP score (Spearman correlation, 0.81). In the cirrhosis cohort, 98% were matched to within 1 point of their actual CTP score (Spearman, 0.85). When applied to a cohort of 30,840 patients with cirrhosis, each unit change in eCTP was associated with 39% increase in the relative risk of death or transplantation. The Harrell C statistic for the eCTP (0.678) was numerically higher than those for other disease severity indices for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival. Adding other predictive models to the eCTP resulted in minimal differences in its predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated an algorithm to extrapolate an eCTP score from data in a large administrative database with excellent correlation to actual CTP score on chart review. When applied to an administrative database, this algorithm is a highly useful predictor of survival when compared with multiple other published liver disease severity indices.

Association of immune-activation and senescence markers with non-AIDS-defining comorbidities in HIV-suppressed patients

OBJECTIVES

We studied the link between T-cell activation, differentiation and senescence phenotypes and non-AIDS-related comorbidities in HIV-suppressed patients.

DESIGN

Patients included in the ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort were consecutively enrolled in this cross-sectional study between October 2011 and May 2013 called Chronic Immune Activation and Senescence (CIADIS) study.

METHODS

We summarized immune markers [CD4 and CD8 activation (DR), differentiation (naive and terminally differentiated memory T cells), and senescence (CD57CD28)] in a weighted immune score by principal component analysis called CIADIS. Previously described Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) index and immune risk profile (IRP) scores were calculated. We used adjusted logistic regression to assess the association between the CIADIS score and the presence of at least three non-AIDS-defining comorbidities.

RESULTS

Of 876 patients with an undetectable viral load, 73.4% were men and median age was 50.5 years [interquartile range (IQR) 44.7-56.7 years]. Median CD4 T-cell count was 579/μl (IQR 429-759 cells/μl), and median duration of HIV viral suppression was 5.3 years (IQR 2.3-8.7). The weighted CIADIS score was associated with at least three comorbidities (odds ratio 1.3 for 1 SD more, 95% confidence interval 1.0, 1.6) independently of age, sex, AIDS stage, and the Veterans Aging Cohort Study score. The CIADIS and the immune risk profile scores were significantly associated with at least three comorbidities in adjusted models restricted to patients younger than 60 years. None of the tested scores were associated with at least three comorbidities in patients older than 60 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The weighted CIADIS score based on activation, senescence, and differentiation markers might help physicians identifying patients at a higher risk for non-AIDS-related comorbidities.

Characteristics and Outcomes of HIV-Infected Patients With Severe Sepsis: Continued Risk in the Post-Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy Era

OBJECTIVES

Although highly active antiretroviral therapy has led to improved survival in HIV-infected individuals, outcomes for HIV-infected patients with sepsis in the post-highly active antiretroviral therapy era are conflicting. Access to highly active antiretroviral therapy and healthcare disparities continue to affect outcomes. We hypothesized that HIV-infected patients with severe sepsis would have worse outcomes compared with their HIV-uninfected counterparts in a large safety-net hospital where access to healthcare is low and delivery of critical care is delayed.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of an ongoing prospective observational study between 2006 and 2010.

SETTING

Three adult ICUs (medical ICU, surgical ICU, and neurologic ICU) at Grady Memorial Hospital, Atlanta, GA.

PATIENTS

Adult patients with severe sepsis in the ICU.

INTERVENTIONS

Baseline patient characteristics and clinical outcomes were collected. HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected patients with sepsis were compared using t tests, chi-square tests, and logistic regression; p values less than 0.05 indicated significance.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Of 1,095 patients with severe sepsis enrolled, 165 (15%) were positive for HIV, with a median CD4 count of 41 (8-167). Twenty-two percent of HIV-infected patients were on highly active antiretroviral therapy prior to admission, and 80% had a CD4 count less than 200. HIV-infected patients had a greater hospital mortality (50% vs 38%; p < 0.01). HIV infection (odds ratio = 1.78; p = 0.005) was an independent predictor of mortality by multivariate regression modeling after adjusting for age, history of pneumonia, history of hospital-acquired infection, and history of sepsis.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-infected patients with severe sepsis continue to suffer worse outcomes compared with HIV-uninfected patients in a large urban safety-net hospital caring for patients with limited access to medical care. Further studies need to be done to investigate the effect of socioeconomic status and mitigate healthcare disparities among critically ill HIV-infected patients.

The Impact of Marijuana Use on the Successful Aging of HIV-Infected Adults

OBJECTIVE

To determine the impact of self-reported marijuana use on the components of successful aging of HIV-infected persons.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of 45- to 65-year-old HIV-infected subjects on antiretroviral therapy >6 months with undetectable HIV-1 viral load. Successful aging was defined as absence of disease, adequate physical function, high quality of life (QOL), and social engagement. Clinical characteristics, physical function assessments, and QOL from short form 36 were compared between groups defined by self-reported recent marijuana use (RMU), adjusted for tobacco use, CD4 T-cell count, and time since HIV diagnosis, using logistic or linear regression for binary or continuous measures.

RESULTS

93 of 359 total subjects (26%) reported RMU. Demographically, patients reporting RMU had been diagnosed with HIV less recently [14 (13-16) vs 11 (10-12) years], reported smoking (48% vs 25%) and lower income (92% vs 80%) with greater prevalence than non-RMU patients; other demographics and clinical characteristics (age, CD4 T-cell count) were similar. Gender, race/ethnicity, physical outcomes, physical function, and disease burden were not significantly different. Patients reporting RMU demonstrated lower mental QOL and increased odds of low social engagement and un- or under-employment compared with nonusers.

CONCLUSIONS

The negative association between RMU and mental or social QOL should be considered when assessing the success with which HIV patients reporting RMU are aging.

HIV and Alcohol Research Priorities of City, State, and Federal Policymakers: Results of a Delphi Study

We identified the research areas related to HIV and alcohol consumption that were of highest priority to city, state, and federal policymakers. From June to July 2014, we conducted a 3-round Delphi study to elicit from experts a list of alcohol- and HIV-related clinical trial research questions that were important to fund and rank order the list to identify questions of highest priority. Translating evidence into practice must be improved because some questions that have been extensively studied with results published in peer-reviewed journals were identified by the panel as areas needing additional research.

Food insecurity and health: data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Food insecurity may be a modifiable and independent risk factor for worse control of medical conditions, but it has not been explored among veterans. We determined the prevalence of, and factors independently associated with, food insecurity among veterans in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS).

METHODS

Using data from VACS from 2002-2008, we determined the prevalence of food insecurity among veterans who have accessed health care in the Veterans Health Administration (VA) as defined by "concern about having enough food for you or your family in the past month." We used multivariable logistic regression to determine factors independently associated with food insecurity and tests of trend to measure the association between food insecurity and control of hypertension, diabetes, HIV, and depression.

RESULTS

Of the 6,709 veterans enrolled in VACS, 1,624 (24%) reported being food insecure. Food insecurity was independently associated with being African American, earning <$25,000/year, recent homelessness, marijuana use, and depression. Being food insecure was also associated with worse control of hypertension, diabetes, HIV, and depression (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Food insecurity is prevalent and associated with worse control of medical conditions among veterans who have accessed care in the VA.

Thirty-day postoperative mortality among individuals with HIV infection receiving antiretroviral therapy and procedure-matched, uninfected comparators

IMPORTANCE

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has converted human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection into a chronic condition, and patients now undergo a variety of surgical procedures, but current surgical outcomes are inadequately characterized.

OBJECTIVE

To compare 30-day postoperative mortality in patients with HIV infection receiving ART with the rates in uninfected individuals.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective analysis of nationwide electronic medical record data from the US Veterans Health Administration Healthcare System, October 1, 1996, to September 30, 2010. Common inpatient surgical procedures were grouped using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Clinical Classification System to match HIV-infected and uninfected patients in a 1:2 ratio. Data on 1641 patients with HIV infection receiving combination ART who were undergoing inpatient surgery were compared with data on 3282 procedure-matched, uninfected comparators. Poisson regression models of 30-day postoperative mortality were adjusted for procedure year, age, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, hemoglobin level, albumin level, HIV infection, CD4 cell count, and HIV-1 RNA level.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause 30-day postoperative mortality.

RESULTS

The most common procedures in both groups were cholecystectomy (10.5%), hip arthroplasty (10.5%), spine surgery (9.8%), herniorrhaphy (7.4%), and coronary artery bypass grafting (7.0%). In patients with HIV infection, CD4 cell distributions were 80.0% with 200/μL or more, 16.3% with 50/μL to 199/μL, and 3.7% with less than 50/μL; 74.1% of patients with HIV infection had undetectable HIV-1 RNA. Human immunodeficiency virus infection was associated with higher 30-day postoperative mortality compared with the mortality in uninfected patients (3.4% [56 patients]) vs 1.6% [53]); incidence rate ratio [IRR], 2.11; 95% CI, 1.41-3.17; P < .001). CD4 cell count was inversely associated with mortality, but HIV-1 RNA provided no additional information. After adjustment, patients with HIV infection had increased mortality compared with uninfected patients at all CD4 cell count strata (≥500/μL: IRR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.02-3.60; P = .04; 200-499/μL: IRR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.20-2.98; P = .01; 50-199/μL: IRR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.29-5.47; P = .01; and <50/μL: IRR, 6.21; 95% CI, 3.55-10.85; P < .001). Hypoalbuminemia (IRR, 4.35; 95% CI, 2.78-6.81; P < .001) and age in decades (IRR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.23-1.76; P < .001) were also strongly associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Current postoperative mortality rates among individuals with HIV infection who are receiving ART are low and are influenced as much by hypoalbuminemia and age as by CD4 cell status. Human immunodeficiency virus infection and CD4 cell count are only 2 of many factors associated with surgical outcomes that should be incorporated into surgical decision making.

Weight change after antiretroviral therapy and mortality

BACKGROUND

Weight gain after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is common, but its implication for mortality is unknown. We evaluated weight change in the first year after ART initiation and its association with subsequent mortality.

METHODS

Human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) who initiated ART between 2000 and 2008, with weight recorded at baseline and 1 year later, were followed another 5 years for mortality. Baseline body mass index (BMI) was classified as underweight (<18.5 kg/m(2)), normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m(2)), and obese (≥30 kg/m(2)). We used multivariable Cox models to assess mortality risk with adjustment for disease severity using the VACS Index.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 4184 men and 127 women with a mean age of 47.9 ± 10.0 years. After 1 year of ART, median weight change was 5.9 pounds (2.7 kg) (interquartile range, -2.9 to 17.0 pounds, -1.3 to 7.7 kg). Weight gain after ART initiation was associated with lower mortality among underweight and normal-weight patients. A minimum threshold of 10- to 19.9-pound (4.5 to 9.0 kg) weight gain was beneficial for normal-weight patients (hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, .41-.78), but there was no clear benefit to weight gain for overweight/obese patients. Baseline weight, CD4 cell count status, and hemoglobin level were strongly associated with weight gain. Risk for weight gain was higher among those with greater disease severity, regardless of weight at initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

The survival benefits of weight gain after ART initiation are dependent on starting BMI. Weight gain after ART is associated with lower mortality for those who are not initially overweight.

Short communication: The Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index is an effective tool to assess baseline frailty status in a contemporary cohort of HIV-infected persons

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index has previously been used to identify frail HIV-infected persons. However, data demonstrating the independent association between the VACS Index and baseline frailty status is lacking. Furthermore, the ability of the VACS Index to also reflect transitions in frailty status over time is unknown. We used data from the Study to Understand the Natural History of HIV and AIDS in the Era of Effective Therapy (SUN Study) to determine independent association of baseline frailty status with the VACS Index. We also evaluated VACS Index changes with frailty status transitions over time. We included 303 participants (median age 48 years, 76% men, 57% non-Hispanic white, 91% with plasma HIV RNA <400 copies/ml, and median CD4(+) cell count 595 cells/ml) with baseline and follow-up frailty assessments and used the Fried's criteria to define frailty status. There were 184 (61%) nonfrail, 112 (37%) prefrail, and seven (2%) frail participants at baseline. Prefrail/frail participants had significantly higher median VACS Index scores compared with nonfrail participants (18 versus 10, p<0.001). In multivariable analysis, prefrailty/frailty was independently associated with a higher VACS Index score (odds ratio 1.025, p=0.019). After a median follow-up of 12 months, participants who remained prefrail/frail compared to those who remained nonfrail continued to have higher median VACS Index scores. The VACS Index score did not significantly change with transitions in frailty status over time. Our study highlights the potential utility of the VACS Index in frailty assessment within the clinical setting.

Functional impairment, disability, and frailty in adults aging with HIV-infection

The integration of antiretroviral therapy (i.e., ART) into HIV care has dramatically extended the life expectancy of those living with HIV. However, in comparison to similar HIV-uninfected populations, HIV-infected persons experience an excess of morbidity and mortality with an early onset of aging complications including neurocognitive decline, osteoporosis, impaired physical function, frailty, and falls. Recent consensus guidelines encourage clinicians and researchers to consider functional impairment of HIV-infected adults as a measure to understand the impact of aging across a range of abilities. Despite the importance of assessing function in persons aging with HIV infection, a lack of consistent terminology and standardization of assessment tools has limited the application of functional assessments in clinical or research settings. Herein, we distinguish between different approaches used to assess function, describe what is known about function in the aging HIV population, and consider directions for future research.

Incarceration and health outcomes in HIV-infected patients: the impact of substance use, primary care engagement, and antiretroviral adherence

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

One in seven HIV-infected individuals is incarcerated each year. We used data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) to explore the relationship between incarceration and HIV disease outcomes and evaluate potential mediators of this relationship.

METHODS

HIV disease outcomes included: low CD4 counts (<200 cells/mL), detectable viral RNA loads (>500 copies/mL), and the VACS Index score. We performed a mediation analysis among 1,591 HIV-infected patients to examine whether unhealthy alcohol use, drug use, primary care engagement, or antiretroviral adherence mediated observed associations.

RESULTS

Among 1,591 HIV-infected patients, 47% reported having a history of incarceration. In multivariate analyses, a history of incarceration was associated with a higher VACS Index score (β 2.47, 95% CI 0.52-4.43). Mediation analysis revealed that recent drug use attenuated the association by 22% (β 1.93, 95% CI -0.06, 3.91) while other proposed mediators did not.

CONCLUSIONS AND SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE

Improving access to drug treatment when incarcerated and upon release may be an important target to improving the health of HIV-infected individuals with a history of incarceration. (Am J Addict 2015;24:178-184).

Patient-centered care for people living with multimorbidity

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review is to consider a patient-centred approach to the care of people living with HIV (PLWH) who have multimorbidity, irrespective of the specific conditions.

RECENT FINDINGS

Interdisciplinary care to achieve patient-centred care for people with multimorbidity is recognized as important, but the evaluation of models designed to achieve this goal are needed. Key elements of such approaches include patient preferences, interpretation of the evidence, prognosis as a tool to inform patient-centred care, clinical feasibility and optimization of treatment regimens.

SUMMARY

Developing and evaluating the best models of patient-centred care for PLWH who also have multimorbidity is essential. This challenge represents an opportunity to leverage the lessons learned from the care of people with multimorbidity in general, and vice versa.

Mortality and Risk Stratification of HIV Infected Individuals

For the first decade and a half after the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) was first identified, the prognosis for most people infected with HIV was quite poor. Life insurance companies responded accordingly and insurance laboratories developed new means to test for the infection. However, it is now clear that people with HIV infection are living longer and that the majority of deaths occurring among those on treatment are now no longer due to AIDS-defining illnesses. This review examines the results of selected studies which analyzed mortality outcomes in those with HIV infection, the many factors which influence those outcomes, and the limitations in the data and in their applicability to an insurance population.

An adapted frailty-related phenotype and the VACS index as predictors of hospitalization and mortality in HIV-infected and uninfected individuals

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a geriatric syndrome of decreased physiologic reserve and a risk factor for hospitalization and mortality. We hypothesized that an adapted survey-based frailty-related phenotype (aFRP) predicts hospitalization and mortality among HIV-infected and uninfected individuals in adjusted models but is uncommon among those achieving undetectable HIV-1 RNA.

METHODS

Defined from self-reported domains of physical shrinking, exhaustion, slowness, and low physical activity in Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) participants, aFRP was considered present with ≥3 domains and prefrailty with 1-2 domains. Cox survival analysis determined hazard ratios (HRs) for 5-year hospitalization and mortality risk adjusting for frailty states, demographics, health behaviors, comorbidities, and a validated risk index incorporating HIV-specific and general organ system biomarkers, the VACS Index. Model discrimination was assessed.

RESULTS

Participants with complete data were included [6515/7324 (89%)]. Of these, 3.9% of HIV-infected individuals with HIV-1 RNA >400 copies per milliliter; 2.0% of HIV-infected individuals with HIV-1 RNA ≤400 copies per milliliter; and 2.8% of uninfected individuals met aFRP criteria (P = 0.01). After adjustment for other covariates, aFRP was associated with hospitalization (HR = 1.78; 95% confidence interval: 1.48 to 2.13) and mortality (HR = 1.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.28 to 2.40). C-statistics for the VACS Index for hospitalization (0.633) and for mortality (0.756) were higher than for aFRP (0.565 and 0.584, respectively). C-statistic for hospitalization improved modestly when VACS Index and aFRP were both included (0.646) and minimally for mortality (0.761).

CONCLUSIONS

aFRP was independently associated with adverse health outcomes among HIV-infected and uninfected individuals. aFRP modestly improved prediction for hospitalization. However, the aFRP is rare among HIV-infected individuals with undetectable HIV-1 RNA.

Impact on life expectancy of HIV-1 positive individuals of CD4+ cell count and viral load response to antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to estimate life expectancies of HIV-positive patients conditional on response to antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

Patients aged more than 20 years who started ART during 2000-2010 (excluding IDU) in HIV clinics contributing to the UK CHIC Study were followed for mortality until 2012. We determined the latest CD4 cell count and viral load before ART and in each of years 1-5 of ART. For each duration of ART, life tables based on estimated mortality rates by sex, age, latest CD4 cell count and viral suppression (HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/ml), were used to estimate expected age at death for ages 20-85 years.

RESULTS

Of 21 388 patients who started ART, 961 (4.5%) died during 110 697 person-years. At start of ART, expected age at death [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 35-year-old men with CD4 cell count less than 200, 200-349, at least 350 cells/μl was 71 (68-73), 78 (74-82) and 77 (72-81) years, respectively, compared with 78 years for men in the general UK population. Thirty-five-year-old men who increased their CD4 cell count in the first year of ART from less than 200 to 200-349 or at least 350 cells/μl and achieved viral suppression gained 7 and 10 years, respectively. After 5 years on ART, expected age at death of 35-year-old men varied from 54 (48-61) (CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl and no viral suppression) to 80 (76-83) years (CD4 cell count ≥350 cells/μl and viral suppression).

CONCLUSION

Successfully treated HIV-positive individuals have a normal life expectancy. Patients who started ART with a low CD4 cell count significantly improve their life expectancy if they have a good CD4 cell count response and undetectable viral load.

Impact of risk factors for specific causes of death in the first and subsequent years of antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients

Among HIV-infected patients who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART), patterns of cause-specific death varied by ART duration and were strongly related to age, sex, and transmission risk group. Deaths from non-AIDS malignancies were much more frequent than those from cardiovascular disease.

Background. Patterns of cause-specific mortality in individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) are changing dramatically in the era of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods. Sixteen cohorts from Europe and North America contributed data on adult patients followed from the start of ART. Procedures for coding causes of death were standardized. Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for transmission risk group, sex, age, year of ART initiation, baseline CD4 count, viral load, and AIDS status, before and after the first year of ART.

Results. A total of 4237 of 65 121 (6.5%) patients died (median, 4.5 years follow-up). Rates of AIDS death decreased substantially with time since starting ART, but mortality from non-AIDS malignancy increased (rate ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0–1.1). Higher mortality in men than women during the first year of ART was mostly due to non-AIDS malignancy and liver-related deaths. Associations with age were strongest for cardiovascular disease, heart/vascular, and malignancy deaths. Patients with presumed transmission through injection drug use had higher rates of all causes of death, particularly for liver-related causes (HRs compared with men who have sex with men: 18.1 [95% CI, 6.2–52.7] during the first year of ART and 9.1 [95% CI, 5.8–14.2] thereafter). There was a persistent role of CD4 count at baseline and at 12 months in predicting AIDS, non-AIDS infection, and non-AIDS malignancy deaths. Lack of viral suppression on ART was associated with AIDS, non-AIDS infection, and other causes of death.

Conclusions. Better understanding of patterns of and risk factors for cause-specific mortality in the ART era can aid in development of appropriate care for HIV-infected individuals and inform guidelines for risk factor management.

A framework for crafting clinical practice guidelines that are relevant to the care and management of people with multimorbidity

Many patients of all ages have multiple conditions, yet clinicians often lack explicit guidance on how to approach clinical decision-making for such people. Most recommendations from clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) focus on the management of single diseases, and may be harmful or impractical for patients with multimorbidity. A major barrier to the development of guidance for people with multimorbidity stems from the fact that the evidence underlying CPGs derives from studies predominantly focused on the management of a single disease. In this paper, the investigators from the Improving Guidelines for Multimorbid Patients Study Group present consensus-based recommendations for guideline developers to make guidelines more useful for the care of people with multimorbidity. In an iterative process informed by review of key literature and experience, we drafted a list of issues and possible approaches for addressing important coexisting conditions in each step of the guideline development process, with a focus on considering relevant interactions between the conditions, their treatments and their outcomes. The recommended approaches address consideration of coexisting conditions at all major steps in CPG development, from nominating and scoping the topic, commissioning the work group, refining key questions, ranking importance of outcomes, conducting systematic reviews, assessing quality of evidence and applicability, summarizing benefits and harms, to formulating recommendations and grading their strength. The list of issues and recommendations was reviewed and refined iteratively by stakeholders. This framework acknowledges the challenges faced by CPG developers who must make complex judgments in the absence of high-quality or direct evidence. These recommendations require validation through implementation, evaluation and refinement.

The VACS index accurately predicts mortality and treatment response among multi-drug resistant HIV infected patients participating in the options in management with antiretrovirals (OPTIMA) study

Objectives

The VACS Index is highly predictive of all-cause mortality among HIV infected individuals within the first few years of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). However, its accuracy among highly treatment experienced individuals and its responsiveness to treatment interventions have yet to be evaluated. We compared the accuracy and responsiveness of the VACS Index with a Restricted Index of age and traditional HIV biomarkers among patients enrolled in the OPTIMA study.

Methods

Using data from 324/339 (96%) patients in OPTIMA, we evaluated associations between indices and mortality using Kaplan-Meier estimates, proportional hazards models, Harrel’s C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We also determined the association between study interventions and risk scores over time, and change in score and mortality.

Results

Both the Restricted Index (c = 0.70) and VACS Index (c = 0.74) predicted mortality from baseline, but discrimination was improved with the VACS Index (NRI = 23%). Change in score from baseline to 48 weeks was more strongly associated with survival for the VACS Index than the Restricted Index with respective hazard ratios of 0.26 (95% CI 0.14–0.49) and 0.39(95% CI 0.22–0.70) among the 25% most improved scores, and 2.08 (95% CI 1.27–3.38) and 1.51 (95%CI 0.90–2.53) for the 25% least improved scores.

Conclusions

The VACS Index predicts all-cause mortality more accurately among multi-drug resistant, treatment experienced individuals and is more responsive to changes in risk associated with treatment intervention than an index restricted to age and HIV biomarkers. The VACS Index holds promise as an intermediate outcome for intervention research.

The VACS index predicts mortality in a young, healthy HIV population starting highly active antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) index is a weighted combination of age and 8 clinical variables. It has been well correlated with all-cause mortality among HIV-infected patients. The US Military HIV Natural History Study (NHS) cohort provides a different validation population profile, being younger and healthier. A significant portion of the US HIV population is similarly composed; so, evaluation of the VACS index in this population is of great interest.

METHODS

NHS subjects have medical history and laboratory data collected at 6-month visits. We performed an external validation of the VACS index in the NHS evaluating correlation, discrimination, and calibration for all-cause mortality after highly active antiretroviral therapy initiation (HI). We then tested whether combining longitudinal VACS index values at different time points improves prediction of mortality.

RESULTS

The VACS index at 1 year after HI was well correlated with all-cause mortality (Harrell c statistic 0.78), provided good discrimination (log-rank P < 0.05), and was marginally well calibrated using Brier score. Accounting for VACS index at HI and 6 months after HI significantly improved a standard model, including only the VACS index at 1 year after HI (net reclassification improvement = 25.2%, 95% CI: 10.9% to 48.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The VACS index was well correlated and provided good discrimination with respect to all-cause mortality among highly active antiretroviral therapy initiating subjects in the NHS. Moderate overprediction of mortality in this young, healthy population suggests minor recalibration that could improve fit among similar patients. Considering VACS index at HI and 6 months improved outcome prediction and allowed earlier risk assessment.

The veterans aging cohort study index is associated with concurrent risk for neurocognitive impairment

OBJECTIVE

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index is predictive of mortality and combines age, traditional HIV biomarkers (HIV-1 plasma RNA and current CD4 count), and non-HIV biomarkers (indicators of renal and liver function, anemia, and hepatitis C coinfection). We examined the association between the VACS Index and HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment (NCI).

DESIGN AND METHODS

Participants included 601 HIV-infected adults enrolled in cohort studies at the University of California, San Diego, HIV Neurobehavioral Research Program (ages: 18-76 years; 88% male; 63% white; median current CD4 = 364 cells/mm; 63% on antiretroviral therapy; AIDS = 64%). Biomarkers used in calculating the VACS Index were measured in prospectively collected blood samples using conventional laboratory methods. NCI was defined using global and seven domain deficit scores.

RESULTS

Higher VACS Index scores were associated with concurrent risk for global NCI [P < 0.001; odds ratio = 1.21, confidence interval (CI): 1.12 to 1.32], even when adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities. This relation was statistically significant for most cognitive domains in adjusted models. Furthermore, the VACS Index predicted concurrent NCI beyond nadir CD4 and estimated duration of infection. Older age, lower hemoglobin, and lower CD4 counts were the VACS components most strongly linked to NCI.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings extend previous research on the potential usefulness of the VACS Index in predicting HIV-associated outcomes to include NCI. Although the effect size was relatively small, our findings suggest that demographic information, HIV-disease factors, and common comorbidities might each play important roles in the clinical manifestation of cognitive impairment among HIV-infected individuals. Additional research is needed to determine if a more sensitive and specific index can be developed.

CD4 counts and mortality in virologically suppressed US veterans

We used the Veterans Health Administration (VA) HIV Clinical Case Registry (CCR) to evaluate the association between annual CD4 averages and all-cause mortality in HIV-infected veterans during their initial episode of suppressive highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We observed 1083 deaths in 14 769 patients. Unadjusted mortality rates in the top and bottom CD4 quintiles differed significantly from the mid CD4 strata. Mortality in the top CD4 quintile (≥720 cells/mm(3)) was 14.1/1000 patient-years, 95% confidence interval (CI): 10.1-18.2, compared with 20.4 (CI: 15.5-25.3) in the next lower CD4 stratum (530-719 cells/mm(3)). This difference was significant in Cox proportional hazards model, controlling for demographics, hepatitis co-infections, low-level viremia, HAART adherence, and refill rates of individual antiretrovirals (HR: 1.4, CI: 1.13-1.73). Our results support early HAART initiation as advocated by the current US treatment guidelines for HIV infection.

Alcohol and HIV: Experimental and Clinical Evidence of Combined Impact on the Lung

Despite antiretroviral therapy, lung disease is a leading cause of death in individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV). Individuals infected with HIV are susceptible to serious bacterial and viral infections, such as pneumococcus and influenza, which are particularly problematic for lung health, resulting in lung injury. Additionally, HIV-infected individuals are susceptible to a number of pulmonary diseases for unknown reasons. Alcohol, the most commonly abused drug in the world, continues to exact an enormous toll on morbidity and mortality in individuals living with HIV. Chronic alcohol abuse has been shown to affect lung immunity, resulting in significant lung injury. There is a paucity of literature on the additive effects of HIV and alcohol, two diseases of immune senescence, in the lung. This chapter begins by discussing the latest literature evaluating the epidemiology of HIV, alcohol use, and lung health focusing on two prevalent infections, tuberculosis and pneumococcal pneumonia. In parallel, we discuss the interactions of alcohol and HIV on the risk for acute lung injury and subsequent morbidity and mortality. We then discuss the pathophysiology of how these two diseases of immune dysfunction affect the lung, with a focus on the oxidative stress, alveolar macrophage host immune capacity, and immunomodulatory role of zinc in the airway. Finally, we review the latest literature on how HIV and alcohol affect other pulmonary disorders including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary hypertension, and lung cancer.

Optimal Allocation of Gold Standard Testing under Constrained Availability: Application to Assessment of HIV Treatment Failure

The World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for monitoring the effectiveness of HIV treatment in resource-limited settings (RLS) are mostly based on clinical and immunological markers (e.g., CD4 cell counts). Recent research indicates that the guidelines are inadequate and can result in high error rates. Viral load (VL) is considered the "gold standard", yet its widespread use is limited by cost and infrastructure. In this paper, we propose a diagnostic algorithm that uses information from routinely-collected clinical and immunological markers to guide a selective use of VL testing for diagnosing HIV treatment failure, under the assumption that VL testing is available only at a certain portion of patient visits. Our algorithm identifies the patient sub-population, such that the use of limited VL testing on them minimizes a pre-defined risk (e.g., misdiagnosis error rate). Diagnostic properties of our proposal algorithm are assessed by simulations. For illustration, data from the Miriam Hospital Immunology Clinic (RI, USA) are analyzed.

Co-morbidity, ageing and predicted mortality in antiretroviral treated Australian men: a quantitative analysis

Background

Life expectancy has increased in HIV-positive individuals receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART); however, they still experience increased mortality due to ageing-associated comorbidities compared with HIV-negative individuals.

Methods

A retrospective study of 314 Queensland HIV-infected males on cART was conducted. The negative impact of ageing was assessed by estimating the probability of 5-year mortality; comparisons were made between an HIV-specific predictive tool (VACS index) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) life-tables to examine potential differences attributed to HIV. The negative impact of ageing was also assessed by the prevalence of comorbidities. Associations between comorbidity and estimates of predicted mortality by regression analysis were assessed.

Results

The mean predicted 5-year mortality rate was 6% using the VACS index compared with 2.1% using the ABS life-table (p<0.001). The proportion of patients at predicted high risk of mortality (>9%) using the VACS index or ABS life-table were 17% and 1.8% respectively. Comorbidities were also more prevalent in this cohort compared with rates of comorbidities in age-matched Australian men from the general population. Metabolic disease (38.2%) was the most prevalent comorbidity followed by renal (33.1%) and cardiovascular disease (23.9%). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that patients with a history of cardiovascular disease had a higher predicted risk of mortality (OR=1.69;95%CI:1.17-2.45) whereas ex-smokers had a lower predicted risk of mortality (OR=0.61;95%CI:0.41-0.92).

Conclusions

Using the VACS Index there is an increased predicted risk of mortality in cART-treated HIV infected Australian men compared with age-matched men using the ABS data. This increased predicted mortality risk is associated with cardiovascular disease and the number of comorbidities per subject; which suggests that the VACS Index may discriminate between high and low predicted mortality risks in this population. However, until the VACS Index is validated in Australia this data may suggest the VACS Index overestimates predicted mortality risk in this country.

Autonomic neuropathy in HIV is unrecognized and associated with medical morbidity

Autonomic dysfunction is common in HIV. However, its clinical impact is not well understood and its protean symptoms make it difficult to diagnose. We sought to determine: (1) whether autonomic neuropathy is associated with morbidity and predicted mortality in HIV as measured by the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) index; and (2) if healthcare providers recognize the diagnosis of autonomic neuropathy. Data were obtained from 102 HIV-infected adults enrolled in a prevalence study of autonomic dysfunction from 2011-2012. Participants were predominantly minority with nearly equal numbers of men and women. Most were receiving an antiretroviral regimen with a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone and a base of a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, protease inhibitor, or integrase inhibitor. Autonomic neuropathy was defined using a laboratory-based autonomic assessment, the Composite Autonomic Severity Score (CASS). Medical records were reviewed for the year prior to the autonomic assessment. We found that the autonomic neuropathy score (CASS) was associated with the VACS index. We also found that among 53 participants with symptomatic autonomic neuropathy, the diagnosis had been considered for only one. The majority of the symptoms were either unexplained or attributed to medication side effects. This study demonstrates that autonomic neuropathy in HIV is associated with serious co-morbid illnesses known to increase mortality risk, and that HIV healthcare providers rarely consider autonomic neuropathy in their differential diagnoses. Future studies are needed to determine if autonomic neuropathy is an independent risk factor for mortality in HIV, and to raise awareness of its signs and symptoms.

HIV-related neuropathy: current perspectives

Distal symmetric polyneuropathy (DSP) related to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is one of the most common neurologic complications of HIV, possibly affecting as many as 50% of all individuals infected with HIV. Two potentially neurotoxic mechanisms have been proposed to play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of HIV DSP: neurotoxicity resulting from the virus and its products; as well as adverse neurotoxic effects of medications used in the treatment of HIV. Clinically, HIV DSP is characterized by a combination of signs and symptoms that include decreased deep tendon reflexes at the ankles and decreased sensation in the distal extremities as well as paresthesias, dysesthesias, and pain in a symmetric stocking-glove distribution. These symptoms are generally static or slowly progressive over time, and depending on the severity, may interfere significantly with the patient's daily activities. In addition to the clinical picture, nerve conduction studies and skin biopsies are often pursued to support the diagnosis of HIV DSP. Anticonvulsants, antidepressants, topical agents, and nonspecific analgesics may help relieve neuropathic pain. Specifically, gabapentin, lamotrigine, pregabalin, amitriptyline, duloxetine, and high-dose topical capsaicin patches have been used in research and clinical practice. Further research is needed to elucidate the pathogenesis of HIV DSP, thus facilitating the development of novel treatment strategies. This review discusses the epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical findings, diagnosis, and management of DSP in the setting of HIV.

Association of the veterans aging cohort study index with exercise capacity in HIV-infected adults

Physical disability is a major priority in aging, affecting morbidity, mortality, and quality of life. Despite the large number of adults aging with HIV, our understanding of the physiologic and clinical risk factors for disability is limited. Our goal is to determine whether the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index, based on routine clinical blood tests, could serve as a point of care screening tool to identify HIV-infected adults at high risk for physical disability. HIV-infected adults enrolled in the VACS participated in a cross-sectional exercise study with established measures of strength and endurance. The VACS Index was calculated using recent clinical laboratory values and age; a higher score reflects greater mortality risk. Statistical analyses included correlation and linear regression models adjusted for muscle mass. Fifty-five HIV-infected adults, predominantly African-American men, were included with age mean±SD of 52±7 years. Median (IQR) CD4 cell count was 356 cells/mm(3) (212-527). The VACS Index was inversely correlated with quadriceps strength (r=-0.45, p<0.01), grip strength (r=-0.28, p=0.04), and 6-min walk distance (r=-0.27, p=0.05). A 20-point increase in VACS Index score was associated with a 10% lower leg strength (p<0.01), which remained significant after adjustment for muscle cross-sectional area (p=0.02). The VACS Index explained 31% of the variance in specific leg strength. In this group of middle-aged adults with well-controlled HIV infection the VACS Index was significantly associated with upper and lower extremity strength. The VACS Index may be valuable for identification of patients at high risk for disability due to muscle weakness.