Mendelian randomization for studying the effects of perturbing drug targets

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 1 inhibition and gout: Mendelian randomisation study

OBJECTIVE

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) reduce serum urate, but their efficacy depends on renal function which is often impaired in people with gout. SGLT1 is primarily expressed in the small intestine and its inhibition may be a more suitable therapeutic target. We aimed to investigate the association of genetically proxied SGLT1i with gout risk, serum urate levels and cardiovascular safety using Mendelian randomisation (MR).

METHODS

Leveraging data from a genome-wide association study of 344,182 individuals in the UK Biobank, we identified a missense variant in the SLC5A1 gene that associated with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) to proxy SGLT1i. Outcome genetic data comprised 13,179 gout cases and 750,634 controls, 457,690 individuals for serum urate levels, and up to 977,323 individuals for cardiovascular safety outcomes. We applied the Wald ratio method and investigated potential genetic confounding using colocalization.

RESULTS

The rs17683430 missense variant was selected to instrument SGLT1i. Genetically proxied SGLT1i was associated with 75% reduction in gout risk (OR 0.25; 95%CI 0.06, 0.99; p = 0.048) and 32.0 μmol/L reduction in serum urate (95%CI -56.7, -7.3; p = 0.01), per 6.7 mmol/mol reduction in HbA1c. SGLT1i was associated with increased levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.37 mmol/L; 95%CI 0.17, 0.56; p = 0.0002) but not risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, or chronic kidney disease. Colocalization did not suggest that results are attributable to genetic confounding.

CONCLUSION

SGLT1 inhibition may represent a novel therapeutic option for preventing gout in people with or without comorbid diabetes. Randomised trials are needed to formally investigate efficacy and safety.

Safety of beta-blocker and calcium channel blocker antihypertensive drugs in pregnancy: a Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Beta-blocker (BB) and calcium channel blocker (CCB) antihypertensive drugs are commonly used in pregnancy. However, data on their relative impact on maternal and foetal outcomes are limited. We leveraged genetic variants mimicking BB and CCB antihypertensive drugs to investigate their effects on risk of pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes and birthweight using the Mendelian randomization paradigm.

METHODS

Genetic association estimates for systolic blood pressure (SBP) were extracted from summary data of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on 757,601 participants. Uncorrelated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with SBP (p < 5 × 10^-8) in BB and CCB drug target gene regions were selected as proxies for drug target perturbation. Genetic association estimates for the outcomes were extracted from GWASs on 4743 cases and 136,325 controls (women without a hypertensive disorder in pregnancy) for pre-eclampsia or eclampsia, 7676 cases and 130,424 controls (women without any pregnancy-related morbidity) for gestational diabetes, and 155,202 women (who have given birth at least once) for birthweight of the first child. All studies were in European ancestry populations. Mendelian randomization estimates were generated using the two-sample inverse-variance weighted model.

RESULTS

Although not reaching the conventional threshold for statistical significance, genetically-proxied BB was associated with reduced risk of pre-eclampsia (OR per 10 mmHg SBP reduction 0.27, 95%CI 0.06-1.19, p = 0.08) and increased risk of gestational diabetes (OR per 10 mmHg SBP reduction 2.01, 95%CI 0.91-4.42, p = 0.08), and significantly associated with lower birthweight of first child (beta per 10 mmHg SBP reduction - 0.27, 95%CI - 0.39 to - 0.15, p = 1.90 × 10^-5). Genetically-proxied CCB was associated with reduced risk of pre-eclampsia and eclampsia (OR 0.62, 95%CI 0.43-0.89, p = 9.33 × 10^-3), and was not associated with gestational diabetes (OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.76-1.45, p = 0.76) or changes in birthweight of first child (beta per 10 mmHg SBP reduction 0.02, 95%CI - 0.04-0.07, p = 0.54).

CONCLUSIONS

While BB and CCB antihypertensive drugs may both be efficacious for lowering blood pressure in pregnancy, this genetic evidence suggests that BB use may lower birthweight. Conversely, CCB use may reduce risk of pre-eclampsia and eclampsia without impacting gestational diabetes risk or birthweight. These data support further study on the effects of BBs on birthweight.

TwoStepCisMR: A Novel Method and R Package for Attenuating Bias in cis-Mendelian Randomization Analyses

Mendelian randomisation (MR) is an increasingly popular method for strengthening causal inference in epidemiological studies. cis-MR in particular uses genetic variants in the gene region of a drug target protein as an instrumental variable to provide quasi-experimental evidence for on-target drug effects. A limitation of this framework is when the genetic variant is correlated to another variant that also effects the outcome of interest (confounding through linkage disequilibrium). Methods for correcting this bias, such as multivariable MR, struggle in a cis setting because of the high correlation among genetic variants. Here, through simulation experiments and an applied example considering the effect of interleukin 6 receptor signaling on coronary artery disease risk, we present an alternative method for attenuating bias that does not suffer from this problem. As our method uses both MR and the product and difference method for mediation analysis, our proposal inherits all assumptions of these methods. We have additionally developed an R package, TwoStepCisMR, to facilitate the implementation of the method.

Associations of genetically predicted IL-6 signaling with cardiovascular disease risk across population subgroups

BACKGROUND

Interleukin 6 (IL-6) signaling is being investigated as a therapeutic target for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). While changes in circulating high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) are used as a marker of IL-6 signaling, it is not known whether there is effect heterogeneity in relation to baseline hsCRP levels or other cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of this study was to explore the association of genetically predicted IL-6 signaling with CVD risk across populations stratified by baseline hsCRP levels and cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS

Among 397,060 White British UK Biobank participants without known CVD at baseline, we calculated a genetic risk score for IL-6 receptor (IL-6R)-mediated signaling, composed of 26 variants at the IL6R gene locus. We then applied linear and non-linear Mendelian randomization analyses exploring associations with a combined endpoint of incident coronary artery disease, ischemic stroke, peripheral artery disease, aortic aneurysm, and cardiovascular death stratifying by baseline hsCRP levels and cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

The study participants (median age 59 years, 53.9% females) were followed-up for a median of 8.8 years, over which time a total of 46,033 incident cardiovascular events occurred. Genetically predicted IL-6R-mediated signaling activity was associated with higher CVD risk (hazard ratio per 1-mg/dL increment in absolute hsCRP levels: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.06-1.17). The increase in CVD risk was linearly related to baseline absolute hsCRP levels. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the association of genetically predicted IL-6R-mediated signaling with CVD risk when stratifying the population by sex, age, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, or systolic blood pressure, but there was evidence of greater associations in individuals with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥ 160 mg/dL.

CONCLUSIONS

Any benefit of inhibiting IL-6 signaling for CVD risk reduction is likely to be proportional to absolute reductions in hsCRP levels. Therapeutic inhibition of IL-6 signaling for CVD risk reduction should therefore prioritize those individuals with the highest baseline levels of hsCRP.

A Mendelian randomization study investigating the causal role of inflammation on Parkinson’s disease

There is increasing evidence for inflammation as a determinant in the pathogenesis of Parkinson’s disease, but its role in parkinsonian neurodegeneration remains elusive. It is not clear whether inflammatory cascades are causes or consequences of dopamine neuron death. In the present study, we aim to perform an in-depth statistical investigation of the causal relationship between inflammation and Parkinson’s disease using a two-sample Mendelian randomization design.

Genetic instruments were selected using summary-level data from the largest genome-wide association studies to date (sample size ranging from 13 955 to 204 402 individuals) conducted on a European population for the following inflammation biomarkers: C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, interleukin 1 receptor antagonist and tumour necrosis factor α. Genetic association data on Parkinson’s disease (56 306 cases and 1 417 791 controls) and age at onset of Parkinson’s disease (28 568 cases) were obtained from the International Parkinson’s Disease Genomics Consortium. On primary analysis, causal associations were estimated on sets of strong (P-value < 5 × 10⁻⁸; F-statistic > 10) and independent (linkage disequilibrium r² < 0.001) genetic instruments using the inverse-variance weighted method. In sensitivity analysis, we estimated causal effects using robust Mendelian randomization methods and after removing pleiotropic genetic variants. Reverse causation was also explored. We repeated the analysis on different data sources for inflammatory biomarkers to check the consistency of the findings.

In all the three data sources selected for interleukin-6, we found statistical evidence for an earlier age at onset of Parkinson’s disease associated with increased interleukin-6 concentration [years difference per 1 log-unit increase = −2.364, 95% confidence interval (CI) = −4.789–0.060; years difference per 1 log-unit increase = −2.011, 95% CI = −3.706 to −0.317; years difference per 1 log-unit increase = −1.569, 95% CI = −2.891 to −0.247]. We did not observe any statistical evidence for causal effects of C-reactive protein, interleukin 1 receptor antagonist and tumour necrosis factor α on both Parkinson’s disease and its age at onset. Results after excluding possible pleiotropic genetic variants were consistent with findings from primary analyses. When investigating reverse causation, we did not find evidence for a causal effect of Parkinson’s disease or age at onset on any biomarkers of inflammation.

We found evidence for a causal association between the onset of Parkinson’s disease and interleukin-6. The findings of this study suggest that the pro-inflammatory activity of the interleukin-6 cytokine could be a determinant of prodromal Parkinson’s disease.

Genetically predicted vitamin K levels and risk of osteoarthritis: Mendelian randomization study

OBJECTIVE

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a progressive disease for which there is no disease modifying therapy. Vitamin K levels and vitamin K antagonism have been associated with risk and progression of OA which may have direct implications for clinical management, but these observational findings are susceptible to confounding. We aimed to estimate the causal association between vitamin K and OA risk using Mendelian randomisation (MR).

METHODS

We used data from the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of OA to date (up to 826,690 individuals) to estimate the effect of genetically predicted vitamin K level (instrumented using four variants derived from a GWAS of 2,138 individuals) on risk of all OA types, knee, hip, spine, hand OA, and total joint replacement. We employed the inverse-variance weighted method for the primary analysis and, in a series of sensitivity analyses, adjusted for sub-genome wide significant instruments and tested for potential bias from pleiotropy.

RESULTS

We showed that genetically predicted vitamin K levels were not causally associated with risk of OA overall (OR 0.98 per unit increase in log-transformed vitamin K1; 95%CI 0.96-1.01), knee (OR 0.98; 0.92-1.03), hip (OR 0.97; 0.88-1.07), spine (OR 0.97; 0.90-1.04), hand OA (OR 0.97; 0.91-1.04) or joint replacement (OR 0.96; 0.89-1.04). Results were similar across all sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

We found little evidence of a causal association between genetically predicted vitamin K and OA risk. Larger genetic and interventional studies of vitamin K are required to confirm our findings.

Causal Associations Between Circulating Adipokines and Cardiovascular Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study

CONTEXT

Observational studies have suggested associations between adipokines and cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the roles of certain adipokines remain controversial, and these associations have not yet been ascertained causally.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether circulating adipokines causally affect the risk of CVD using 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR).

METHODS

Independent genetic variants strongly associated with adiponectin, resistin, chemerin, and retinol binding protein 4 (RBP4) were selected from public genome-wide association studies. Summary-level statistics for CVD, including coronary artery disease (CAD), myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), and stroke and its subtypes were collected. The inverse-variance weighted and Wald ratio methods were used for the MR estimates. The MR pleiotropy residual sum and outlier, weighted median, MR-Egger, leave-one-out analysis, MR Steiger, and colocalization analyses were used in the sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted resistin levels were positively associated with AF risk (odds ratio [OR] 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.13; P = 4.1 × 10-5), which was attenuated to null after adjusting for blood pressure. We observed suggestive associations between higher genetically predicted chemerin levels and an increased risk of CAD (OR 1.27; 95% CI, 1.01-1.60; P = 0.040), higher genetically predicted RBP4 levels and an increased risk of HF (OR 1.14; 95% CI, 1.02-1.27; P = 0.024). There was no causal association between genetically predicted adiponectin levels and CVD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reveal the causal association between resistin and AF, probably acting through blood pressure, and suggest potential causal associations between chemerin and CAD, RBP4, and HF.

Combining evidence from Mendelian randomization and colocalization: Review and comparison of approaches

Mendelian randomization and colocalization are two statistical approaches that can be applied to summarized data from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) to understand relationships between traits and diseases. However, despite similarities in scope, they are different in their objectives, implementation, and interpretation, in part because they were developed to serve different scientific communities. Mendelian randomization assesses whether genetic predictors of an exposure are associated with the outcome and interprets an association as evidence that the exposure has a causal effect on the outcome, whereas colocalization assesses whether two traits are affected by the same or distinct causal variants. When considering genetic variants in a single genetic region, both approaches can be performed. While a positive colocalization finding typically implies a non-zero Mendelian randomization estimate, the reverse is not generally true: there are several scenarios which would lead to a non-zero Mendelian randomization estimate but lack evidence for colocalization. These include the existence of distinct but correlated causal variants for the exposure and outcome, which would violate the Mendelian randomization assumptions, and a lack of strong associations with the outcome. As colocalization was developed in the GWAS tradition, typically evidence for colocalization is concluded only when there is strong evidence for associations with both traits. In contrast, a non-zero estimate from Mendelian randomization can be obtained despite only nominally significant genetic associations with the outcome at the locus. In this review, we discuss how the two approaches can provide complementary information on potential therapeutic targets.

Lipid traits and type 2 diabetes risk in African ancestry individuals: A Mendelian Randomization study

BACKGROUND

Dyslipidaemia is highly prevalent in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Numerous studies have sought to disentangle the causal relationship between dyslipidaemia and T2DM liability. However, conventional observational studies are vulnerable to confounding. Mendelian Randomization (MR) studies (which address this bias) on lipids and T2DM liability have focused on European ancestry individuals, with none to date having been performed in individuals of African ancestry. We therefore sought to use MR to investigate the causal effect of various lipid traits on T2DM liability in African ancestry individuals.

METHODS

Using univariable and multivariable two-sample MR, we leveraged summary-level data for lipid traits and T2DM liability from the African Partnership for Chronic Disease Research (APCDR) (N = 13,612, 36.9% men) and from African ancestry individuals in the Million Veteran Program (Ncases = 23,305 and Ncontrols = 30,140, 87.2% men), respectively. Genetic instruments were thus selected from the APCDR after which they were clumped to obtain independent instruments. We used a random-effects inverse variance weighted method in our primary analysis, complementing this with additional sensitivity analyses robust to the presence of pleiotropy.

FINDINGS

Increased genetically proxied low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and total cholesterol (TC) levels were associated with increased T2DM liability in African ancestry individuals (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval, P-value] per standard deviation (SD) increase in LDL-C = 1.052 [1.000 to 1.106, P = 0.046] and per SD increase in TC = 1.089 [1.014 to 1.170, P = 0.019]). Conversely, increased genetically proxied high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was associated with reduced T2DM liability (OR per SD increase in HDL-C = 0.915 [0.843 to 0.993, P = 0.033]). The OR on T2DM per SD increase in genetically proxied triglyceride (TG) levels was 0.884 [0.773 to 1.011, P = 0.072] . With respect to lipid-lowering drug targets, we found that genetically proxied 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGCR) inhibition was associated with increased T2DM liability (OR per SD decrease in genetically proxied LDL-C = 1.68 [1.03-2.72, P = 0.04]) but we did not find evidence of a relationship between genetically proxied proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibition and T2DM liability.

INTERPRETATION

Consistent with MR findings in Europeans, HDL-C exerts a protective effect on T2DM liability and HMGCR inhibition increases T2DM liability in African ancestry individuals. However, in contrast to European ancestry individuals, LDL-C may increase T2DM liability in African ancestry individuals. This raises the possibility of ethnic differences in the metabolic effects of dyslipidaemia in T2DM.

FUNDING

See the Acknowledgements section for more information.

The evolution of mendelian randomization for investigating drug effects

Dipender Gill and Stephen Burgess discuss the accompanying study by James Yarmolinsky and colleagues investigating the associations between genetically-proxied inhibition of antihypertensive drug targets and risk of common cancer subtypes using Mendelian randomization.

Morning Cortisol and Circulating Inflammatory Cytokine Levels: A Mendelian Randomisation Study

Cortisol exerts a broad anti-inflammatory effect on the immune system. Inflammatory cytokines contribute to the molecular signalling pathways implicated in various autoimmune and inflammatory conditions. However, the mechanisms by which cortisol modulates such signalling pathways remain uncertain. Leveraging summary-level data from the CORtisol NETwork (CORNET, n = 25,314) and FINRISK (n = 8293) genome-wide association studies, we used two-sample Mendelian randomisation to investigate the causal effect of genetically proxied morning cortisol levels on 42 circulating cytokines. We found that increased genetically proxied morning cortisol levels were associated with reduced levels of IL-8 and increased levels of MIF. These results provide mechanistic insight into the immunomodulatory effects of endogenous cortisol and the therapeutic effects of exogenous corticosteroids. Clinically, our findings underline the therapeutic importance of steroids in inflammatory conditions where IL-8 and MIF play a central pathophysiological role in the onset and progression of disease.

Target Discovery for Drug Development Using Mendelian Randomization

Making drug development more efficient by identifying promising drug targets can contribute to resource savings. Identifying promising drug targets using human genetic approaches can remove barriers related to translation. In addition, genetic information can be used to identify potentially causal relationships between a drug target and disease. Mendelian randomization (MR) is a class of approaches used to identify causal associations between pairs of genetically predicted traits using data from human genetic studies. MR can be used to prioritize candidate drug targets by predicting disease outcomes and adverse events that could result from the manipulation of a drug target. The theory behind MR is reviewed, including a discussion of MR assumptions, different MR analytical methods, tests for violations of assumptions, and MR methods that can be robust to some violations of MR assumptions. A protocol to perform two-sample MR (2SMR) with summary genome-wide association study (GWAS) results is described. An example of 2SMR examining the causal relationship between low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and coronary artery disease (CAD) is provided as an illustration of the protocol.

Exploring pleiotropic effects of lipid modifiers on coagulation and hemostasis with genetics

BACKGROUND

Statins have long been suspected to have pleiotropic effects via thrombotic factors. Randomized controlled trials are too limited to be definitive. We examined the associations of genetically mimicking effects of statins, PCSK9 inhibitors and alternative lipid targets (in genes LDLR, APOC3, and LPL) on key indicators of coagulation system function, i.e., prothrombin time (PT) and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT).

METHODS

We assessed the effect of established genetic mimics of effects of lipid modifiers and alternative lipid treatment targets on PT (n=58,110) and aPTT (n=37,767), all transformed to z-scores, using Mendelian randomization taking advantage of Biobank Japan. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) was a control outcome.

RESULTS

Genetically mimicked effects of statins increased PT by 0.31 standard deviation (SD) per SD increase in LDL (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.10 to 0.51) based on rs12916 but did not affect aPTT. Genetically mimicking effects of targeting LDLR increased PT based on rs688 (0.33 SD per SD increase in TG, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.63) but did not affect aPTT. Genetically mimicking effects of PCSK9 inhibitors or targeting APOC3, or LPL had no effect on PT or aPTT. Genetically mimicking effects of statins, PCSK9 inhibitors and alternative lipid targets reduced risk of IHD in Biobank Japan.

CONCLUSION

Statins, and possibly targeting LDLR, may also act via a coagulation cascade factor, likely specific to the extrinsic or common pathway. Further elucidation of the mechanistic pathway may facilitate development of new interventions and inform use of statins particularly in relation to use of other anticoagulants.

Leveraging genetic data to investigate the effects of interleukin-6 receptor signalling on levels of 40 circulating cytokines

Interleukin 6 (IL-6) is a circulating cytokine implicated in inflammatory processes. However, the broad effects of IL-6 receptor (IL-6R) signalling on other circulating cytokines is not known. Using summary-level data from genome-wide association studies, we leveraged genetic variants that proxy IL-6R signalling in two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses to investigate effects on levels of 40 circulating cytokines. Increased genetically proxied IL-6R signalling was associated with reduced levels of 10 circulating interleukins, chemokines and growth factors. The significant results include IL-10 (Mendelian randomization estimate -0.306, standard error [SE] 0.093), IL-4 (estimate -0.393, SE 0.1007), eotaxin (estimate -0.510, SE 0.1213) and Fibroblast growth factor (estimate -0.334, SE 0.1005). The findings from this study support the feedback effects of IL-6R signalling on reducing levels of some circulating cytokines and identify compensatory mechanisms that maybe modulating its inflammatory effects. These results provide insight into the mechanisms by which IL-6R signalling may be contributing to inflammatory and autoimmune diseases.