Early-life exposure to ambient air pollutants and kidney function in adolescents: a cohort study based on the 'Children of 1997' Hong Kong birth cohort

OBJECTIVES

Air pollution is increasingly linked to impaired kidney function in adults. However, little is known about how early-life exposure to air pollutants affects kidney function in adolescents.

STUDY DESIGN

Cohort study.

METHODS

We leveraged data from the 'Children of 1997' Hong Kong population-representative birth cohort (N = 8327). Residential exposure to average ambient levels of four air pollutants, including inhalable particle (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitrogen monoxide (NO), during in utero, infancy, and childhood periods was estimated using the inverse distance weighting. Kidney function was assessed using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated from age-adjusted equations for adolescents. Generalized linear regression was used to examine the association of air pollutant exposure in each period with kidney function at 17.6 years. Two-pollutant models tested the robustness of the association.

RESULTS

Of the 3350 participants included, 51.4% were boys. Exposure to PM10 was associated with poorer kidney function. Each interquartile range increment in PM10 was inversely associated with eGFR (β: -2.933, 95% confidence interval -4.677 to -1.189) in utero, -2.362 (-3.992 to -0.732) infancy, -2.708 (-4.370 to -1.047) childhood, and -2.828 (-4.409 to -1.247) overall. Exposure to PM10 and SO2in utero had a stronger inverse association with kidney function in males. The associations were robust to PM10 exposure in two-pollutant models.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that early-life exposure to ambient PM10 and SO2 is associated with reduced kidney function in adolescents, especially exposure in utero.

Early-life exposure to ambient air pollution with cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents: Findings from the "Children of 1997" Hong Kong birth cohort

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Little is known about the impact of early-life exposure to air pollutants on CVD risk factors in late adolescence, which may track into adulthood. To clarify, we examined this question in a unique setting with high air pollution and a high level of economic development.

METHODS

This study leveraged the "Children of 1997" Hong Kong birth cohort (N = 8327), including here 3350 participants. We estimated ambient air pollutant exposure including inhalable particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen monoxide (NO) by growth phase (in utero, infancy, childhood) and overall based on residential address. Generalized linear regression was used to assess the associations of air pollutants exposure by growth phase and sex with CVD risk factors (fasting blood glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, lipid profile, blood pressure, and body mass index) at 17.6 years. We also assessed whether associations varied by sex.

RESULTS

Early life exposed had little association with glucose metabolism, blood pressure or body mass index, but after considering multiple comparisons early exposure to PM10 was associated with low density lipoprotein (LDL) in boys, with β and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) of 0.184 (0.069 to 0.298) mmol/l, 0.151 (0.056 to 0.248) mmol/l, and 0.157 (0.063 to 0.252) mmol/l by per interquartile range (IQR) increment of PM10 for in utero, infancy, and overall, respectively. No such associations were evident for girls, differences by sex were evident.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggested sex-specific associations of early-life PM10 exposure with elevated LDL in adolescence, especially exposure in utero and infancy.

A two-sample Mendelian randomization study explores metabolic profiling of different glycemic traits

We assessed the causal relation of four glycemic traits and type 2 diabetes liability with 167 metabolites using Mendelian randomization with various sensitivity analyses and a reverse Mendelian randomization analysis. We extracted instruments for fasting glucose, 2-h glucose, fasting insulin, and glycated hemoglobin from the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-related traits Consortium (n = 200,622), and those for type 2 diabetes liability from a meta-analysis of multiple cohorts (148,726 cases, 965,732 controls) in Europeans. Outcome data were from summary statistics of 167 metabolites from the UK Biobank (n = 115,078). Fasting glucose and 2-h glucose were not associated with any metabolite. Higher glycated hemoglobin was associated with higher free cholesterol in small low-density lipoprotein. Type 2 diabetes liability and fasting insulin were inversely associated with apolipoprotein A1, total cholines, lipoprotein subfractions in high-density-lipoprotein and intermediate-density lipoproteins, and positively associated with aromatic amino acids. These findings indicate hyperglycemia-independent patterns and highlight the role of insulin in type 2 diabetes development. Further studies should evaluate these glycemic traits in type 2 diabetes diagnosis and clinical management.

Dose-Response Associations of Lipid Traits With Coronary Artery Disease and Mortality

Importance

Apolipoprotein B (apoB), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD). However, trial evidence for the association of intensive LDL-C lowering and TG lowering with mortality is less definitive.

Objectives

To investigate the associations of apoB, LDL-C, and TG with CAD and mortality, both overall and by sex and age, and to characterize the shapes of these associations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This genetic association study used linear and nonlinear mendelian randomization (MR) to analyze a population-based cohort of individuals of European ancestry from the UK Biobank, which recruited participants from 2006 to 2010 with follow-up information updated until September 2021. Data analysis occurred from December 2022 to November 2023.

Exposures

Genetically predicted apoB, LDL-C, and TG.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were CAD, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality. Genetic associations with CAD were calculated using logistic regression, associations with all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression, and associations with cause-specific mortality using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression with censoring for other causes of mortality.

Results

This study included 347 797 participants (mean [SD] age, 57.2 [8.0] years; 188 330 female [54.1%]). There were 23 818 people who developed CAD and 23 848 people who died. Genetically predicted apoB was positively associated with risk of CAD (odds ratio [OR], 1.65 per SD increase; 95% CI 1.57-1.73), all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11; 95% CI, 1.06-1.16), and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.24-1.50), with some evidence for larger associations in male participants than female participants. Findings were similar for LDL-C. Genetically predicted TG was positively associated with CAD (OR, 1.60; 95% CI 1.52-1.69), all-cause mortality (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13), and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09-1.34); however, sensitivity analyses suggested evidence of pleiotropy. The association of genetically predicted TG with CAD persisted but it was no longer associated with mortality outcomes after controlling for apoB. Nonlinear MR suggested that all these associations were monotonically increasing across the whole observed distribution of each lipid trait, with no diminution at low lipid levels. Such patterns were observed irrespective of sex or age.

Conclusions and relevance

In this genetic association study, apoB (or, equivalently, LDL-C) was associated with increased CAD risk, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality, all in a dose-dependent way. TG may increase CAD risk independent of apoB, although the possible presence of pleiotropy is a limitation. These insights highlight the importance of apoB (or, equivalently, LDL-C) lowering for reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality across its whole distribution.

The relationship of fatty acids to ischaemic heart disease and lifespan in men and women using Mendelian randomization

BACKGROUND

Observationally, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) have health benefits compared with saturated fatty acids (SFAs); randomized controlled trials suggest fewer benefits. We used uni- and multi-variable Mendelian randomization to assess the association of major fatty acids and their sub-species with ischaemic heart disease (IHD) overall and sex-specifically and with lifespan sex-specifically, given differing lifespan by sex.

METHODS

We obtained strong (P <5x10-8), independent (r2<0.001) genetic predictors of fatty acids from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in a random subset of 114 999 UK Biobank participants. We applied these genetic predictors to the Cardiogram IHD GWAS (cases = 60 801, controls = 123 504) and to the Finngen consortium GWAS (cases = 31 640, controls = 187 152) for replication and to the UK Biobank for sex-specific IHD and for lifespan based on parental attained age (fathers = 415 311, mothers = 412 937). We used sensitivity analysis and assessed sex differences where applicable.

RESULTS

PUFAs were associated with IHD [odds ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05 to 1.44] and lifespan in men (-0.76 years, 95% CI -1.34 to -0.17) but not women (0.20, 95% CI -0.32 to 0.70). Findings were similar for omega-6 fatty acids and linoleic acid. Independent associations of SFAs, mono-unsaturated fatty acids or omega-3 fatty acids with IHD overall or lifespan in men and women were limited.

CONCLUSIONS

PUFAs, via specific subspecies, may contribute to disparities in lifespan by sex. Sex-specific dietary advice might be a start towards personalized public health and addressing inequities.

Association of iron homeostasis biomarkers in type 2 diabetes and glycaemic traits: a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Mendelian randomization (MR) studies show iron positively associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) but included potentially biasing hereditary haemochromatosis variants and did not assess reverse causality.

METHODS

We assessed the relation of iron homeostasis with T2D and glycaemic traits bidirectionally, using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of iron homeostasis biomarkers [ferritin, serum iron, total iron-binding capacity (TIBC), transferrin saturation (TSAT) (n ≤ 246 139)], T2D (DIAMANTE n = 933 970 and FinnGen n = 300 483), and glycaemic traits [fasting glucose (FG), 2-h glucose, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and fasting insulin (FI) (n ≤ 209 605)]. Inverse variance weighting (IVW) was the main analysis, supplemented with sensitivity analyses and assessment of mediation by hepcidin.

RESULTS

Iron homeostasis biomarkers were largely unrelated to T2D, although serum iron was potentially associated with higher T2D [odds ratio: 1.07 per standard deviation; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99 to 1.16; P-value: 0.078) in DIAMANTE only. Higher ferritin, serum iron, TSAT and lower TIBC likely decreased HbA1c, but were not associated with other glycaemic traits. Liability to T2D likely increased TIBC (0.03 per log odds; 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.05; P-value: 0.005), FI likely increased ferritin (0.29 per log pmol/L; 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.47; P-value: 8.72 x 10-4). FG likely increased serum iron (0.06 per mmol/L; 95% CI: 0.001 to 0.12; P-value: 0.046). Hepcidin did not mediate these associations.

CONCLUSION

It is unlikely that ferritin, TSAT and TIBC cause T2D although an association for serum iron could not be excluded. Glycaemic traits and liability to T2D may affect iron homeostasis, but mediation by hepcidin is unlikely. Corresponding mechanistic studies are warranted.

Unraveling Potential Sex-Specific Effects of Cardiovascular Medications on Longevity Using Mendelian Randomization

BACKGROUND

Establishing the sex-specific efficacy of cardiovascular medications is pivotal to evidence-based clinical practice, potentially closing the gender gap in longevity. Trials large enough to establish sex differences are unavailable. This study evaluated sex-specific effects of commonly prescribed cardiovascular medications on lifespan.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a two-sample Mendelian randomization study, established genetic variants mimicking effects of lipid-lowering drugs, antihypertensives, and diabetes drugs were applied to genetic associations with lifespan proxied by UK Biobank maternal (n=412 937) and paternal (n=415 311) attained age. Estimates were obtained using inverse variance weighting, with sensitivity analyses where possible. For lipid-lowering drugs, genetically mimicked PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) inhibitors were associated with longer lifespan, particularly in men (2.39 years per SD low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction [95% CI, 0.42-4.36], P for interaction=0.14). Genetically mimicked treatments targeting APOC3, LPL, or possibly LDLR were associated with longer lifespan in both sexes. For antihypertensives, genetically mimicked β-blockers and calcium channel blockers were associated with longer lifespan, particularly in men (P for interaction=0.17 for β-blockers and 0.31 for calcium channel blockers). For diabetes drugs, genetically mimicked metformin was associated with longer lifespan in both sexes. No associations were found for genetically mimicked statins, ezetimibe, or angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors.

CONCLUSIONS

PCSK9 inhibitors, β-blockers, and calcium channel blockers may prolong lifespan in the general population, particularly men. Treatments targeting APOC3, LPL, or LDLR and metformin may be relevant to both sexes. Whether other null findings are attributable to lack of efficacy requires investigation. Further investigation of repurposing should be conducted.

Selection bias as an explanation for the observed protective association of childhood adiposity with breast cancer

OBJECTIVES

Recalled childhood adiposity is inversely associated with breast cancer observationally, including in Mendelian randomization (MR) studies. Breast cancer studies recruited in adulthood only include survivors of childhood adiposity and breast cancer or a competing risk. We assessed recalled childhood adiposity on participant reported sibling and maternal breast cancer to ensure ascertainment of nonsurvivors.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We obtained independent strong genetic predictors of recalled childhood adiposity for women and their associations with participant reported own, sibling and maternal breast cancer from UK Biobank genome wide association studies.

RESULTS

Recalled childhood adiposity in women was inversely associated with own breast cancer using Mendelian randomization inverse variance weighting (odds ratio (OR) 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-0.84) but less clearly related to participant reported sibling (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.69-1.14) or maternal breast cancer (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.67-1.05).

CONCLUSION

Weaker inverse associations of recalled childhood adiposity with breast cancer with more comprehensive ascertainment of cases before recruitment suggests the inverse association of recalled childhood adiposity with breast cancer could be partly selection bias from preferential selection of survivors. Greater consideration of survival bias in public health relevant causal inferences would be helpful.

Genetic proxies for calcium channel blockers and cancer: a Mendelian randomization study

Calcium channel blockers (CCBs) are commonly prescribed antihypertensives. However, concerns exist about potential off-target effects on cancer. This Mendelian randomization (MR) study examined the associations of genetic proxies for CCBs with the risk of cancer. We used published genetic proxies in the target genes of CCBs as instruments, and obtained MR estimates by applying them to large studies of 17 site-specific cancers (non-Hodgkin lymphoma, melanoma, leukemia, thyroid, rectal, pancreatic, oral cavity/pharyngeal, kidney, esophagus/stomach, colon, bladder, endometrial, cervical and breast, prostate, lung and ovarian cancer) from the Pan-Cancer study, with replication for breast cancer (133,384 cases, 113,789 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium), prostate cancer (79,148 cases, 61,106 controls from the Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome consortium), lung cancer (11,348 cases, 15,861 controls from the International Lung Cancer Consortium), and ovarian cancer (25,509 cases, 40,941 controls from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium). We used inverse variance weighting for the main analysis and the weighted median, MR-Egger and Mendelian Randomization Pleiotropy Residual Sum and Outlier as sensitivity analyses. Genetic proxies for CCBs were not associated with any cancer after Bonferroni-correction (at the threshold of p < 0.003). Associations were robust to different MR methods. In conclusion, our study suggests no association of genetic proxies for CCBs with 17 different cancers. While the findings add some support to the safety profile of CCBs in long-term use, future replication is necessary to provide definitive evidence.

Assessing the safety of lipid-modifying medications among Chinese adolescents: a drug-target Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

With increasing hypercholesterolemia prevalence in East Asian adolescents, pharmacologic interventions (e.g., HMGCR inhibitors (statins) and PCSK9 inhibitors) may have to be considered although their longer-term safety in the general adolescent population is unclear. This study aims to investigate the longer-term safety of HMGCR inhibitors and PCSK9 inhibitors among East Asian adolescents using genetics.

METHODS

A drug-target Mendelian randomization study leveraging the Global Lipid Genetics Consortium (East Asian, n = 146,492) and individual-level data from Chinese participants in the Biobank clinical follow-up of Hong Kong's "Children of 1997" birth cohort (n = 3443, aged ~ 17.6 years). Safety outcomes (n = 100) included anthropometric and hematological traits, renal, liver, lung function, and other nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics. Positive control outcomes were cholesterol markers from the "Children of 1997" birth cohort and coronary artery disease from Biobank Japan.

RESULTS

Genetic inhibition of HMGCR and PCSK9 were associated with reduction in cholesterol-related NMR metabolomics, e.g., apolipoprotein B (HMGCR: beta [95% CI], - 1.06 [- 1.52 to - 0.60]; PCSK9: - 0.93 [- 1.56 to - 0.31]) and had the expected effect on the positive control outcomes. After correcting for multiple comparisons (p-value < 0.006), genetic inhibition of HMGCR was associated with lower linoleic acid - 0.79 [- 1.25 to - 0.35]. Genetic inhibition of PCSK9 was not associated with the safety outcomes assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Statins and PCSK9 inhibitors in East Asian adolescents appeared to be safe based on the outcomes concerned. Larger studies were warranted to verify these findings. This study serves as a proof of principle study to inform the medication safety among adolescents via genetics.

Breastfeeding and ApoB in late adolescence: a Hong Kong birth cohort study

Breastfeeding is widely promoted. Experimental evidence concerning long-term benefits is limited. Observational studies are open to bias from confounding by socio-economic position. We assessed the association of breastfeeding with late adolescent lipid sub-fractions, particularly apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-c), overall and by sex. We took advantage of a setting where breastfeeding has little association with higher socio-economic position and where several results from randomized controlled trials of breastfeeding promotion have been replicated. We used the population-representative "Children of 1997" birth cohort comprising 88% of births in Hong Kong in April and May 1997. Associations of breastfeeding in the first 3 months of life (never, mixed, exclusive) with lipid sub-fractions were obtained using linear regression adjusted for potential confounders including parental socio-economic position, maternal place of birth, type of delivery, gestational age, and birth weight. Differences by sex were assessed. Multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting were used to recover the original sample. Of the 3462 participants included, mean age was 17.6 years and 48.8% were girls. Mean ApoB was 0.74 g/L (standard deviation 0.15). Exclusive versus never breastfeeding was associated with lower ApoB (-0.027 g/L, 95% confidence interval (CI)-0.046 to-0.007, p = 0.007) and lower non-HDL-c (-0.143 mmol/L, 95% CI-0.237 to-0.048) with similar estimates by sex.

CONCLUSION

Breastfeeding may provide some population-level lifelong protection against cardiovascular disease. This study supports policies promoting breastfeeding as a modifiable exposure that contributes to a healthy start in life as an investment for lifelong cardiovascular disease prevention.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Apolipoprotein B (ApoB) is a recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but whether breastfeeding affects ApoB in later life overall and by sex is unknown.

WHAT IS NEW

• Exclusive breastfeeding in the first 3 months of life was associated with lower ApoB in late adolescence, with similar estimates for both sexes. • The inverse association of breastfeeding with ApoB suggests that breastfeeding could reduce cardiovascular disease and overall mortality over the lifespan.

Red meat consumption, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

Observational studies show inconsistent associations of red meat consumption with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes. Moreover, red meat consumption varies by sex and setting, however, whether the associations vary by sex and setting remains unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to summarize the evidence concerning the associations of unprocessed and processed red meat consumption with CVD and its subtypes [coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and heart failure], type two diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to assess differences by sex and setting (western vs. eastern, categorized based on dietary pattern and geographic region). Two researchers independently screened studies from PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published by 30 June 2022. Forty-three observational studies (N = 4 462 810, 61.7% women) for CVD and 27 observational studies (N = 1 760 774, 64.4% women) for diabetes were included. Red meat consumption was positively associated with CVD [hazard ratio (HR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05 to 1.16 for unprocessed red meat (per 100 g/day increment); 1.26, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.35 for processed red meat (per 50 g/day increment)], CVD subtypes, T2DM, and GDM. The associations with stroke and T2DM were higher in western settings, with no difference by sex.

CONCLUSION

Unprocessed and processed red meat consumption are both associated with higher risk of CVD, CVD subtypes, and diabetes, with a stronger association in western settings but no sex difference. Better understanding of the mechanisms is needed to facilitate improving cardiometabolic and planetary health.

Genetically mimicked effects of ASGR1 inhibitors on all-cause mortality and health outcomes: a drug-target Mendelian randomization study and a phenome-wide association study

BACKGROUND

Asialoglycoprotein receptor 1 (ASGR1) is emerging as a potential drug target to reduce low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol and coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. Here, we investigated genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors on all-cause mortality and any possible adverse effects.

METHODS

We conducted a drug-target Mendelian randomization study to assess genetically mimicked effects of ASGR1 inhibitors on all-cause mortality and 25 a priori outcomes relevant to lipid traits, CAD, and possible adverse effects, i.e. liver function, cholelithiasis, adiposity and type 2 diabetes. We also performed a phenome-wide association study of 1951 health-related phenotypes to identify any novel effects. Associations found were compared with those for currently used lipid modifiers, assessed using colocalization, and replicated where possible.

RESULTS

Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors were associated with a longer lifespan (3.31 years per standard deviation reduction in LDL-cholesterol, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 5.62). Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors were inversely associated with apolipoprotein B (apoB), triglycerides (TG) and CAD risk. Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors were positively associated with alkaline phosphatase, gamma glutamyltransferase, erythrocyte traits, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and C-reactive protein (CRP), but were inversely associated with albumin and calcium. Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors were not associated with cholelithiasis, adiposity or type 2 diabetes. Associations with apoB and TG were stronger for ASGR1 inhibitors compared with currently used lipid modifiers, and most non-lipid effects were specific to ASGR1 inhibitors. The probabilities for colocalization were > 0.80 for most of these associations, but were 0.42 for lifespan and 0.30 for CAD. These associations were replicated using alternative genetic instruments and other publicly available genetic summary statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors reduced all-cause mortality. Beyond lipid-lowering, genetically mimicked ASGR1 inhibitors increased liver enzymes, erythrocyte traits, IGF-1 and CRP, but decreased albumin and calcium.

Evaluating the role of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes: a Mendelian randomization study in Europeans and East Asians

BACKGROUND

Whether non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) causes cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear and possible differences between ethnicities have not been thoroughly explored. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess the role of NAFLD in CVD and T2D risk in Europeans and East Asians.

METHODS

We conducted a MR study using genetic predictors of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), liability to NAFLD, aspartate transaminase (AST), liver magnetic resonance imaging corrected T1 and proton density fat fraction and combined them with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics of CVD, T2D and glycaemic traits (sample size ranging from 14 400 to 977 320). Inverse-variance weighted analysis was used to assess the effect of NAFLD in these outcomes, with sensitivity analyses and replication in FinnGen. We conducted analyses in East Asians using ethnicity-specific genetic predictors of ALT and AST, and the respective outcome GWAS summary statistics.

RESULTS

In Europeans, higher ALT was associated with higher T2D risk (odds ratio: 1.77 per standard deviation, 95% CI 1.5 to 2.08), with similar results for other exposures, across sensitivity analyses and in FinnGen. Although NAFLD proxies were related to higher coronary artery disease (CAD) and stroke risk, sensitivity analyses suggested possible bias by horizontal pleiotropy. In East Asians, higher ALT was possibly associated with higher T2D risk, and ALT and AST were inversely associated with CAD.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD likely increases the risk of T2D in Europeans and East Asians. Potential differential effects on CAD between Europeans and East Asians require further investigation.

The influence of growth and sex hormones on risk of alzheimer's disease: a mendelian randomization study

Alzheimer's disease is more prevalent in women, possibly due to sex or growth hormones but existing evidence is inconclusive. We investigated whether genetically predicted sex and growth hormones are associated with risk of Alzheimer's disease. Genetic variants strongly and independently predicting insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were obtained from large, published genome wide associations studies (GWAS) and applied to GWAS of Alzheimer's disease based on clinical diagnosis (cases = 21,982, control = 41,944) from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project and the UK Biobank parental (maternal cases = 27,696; paternal cases = 14,338) and siblings' diagnosis (cases = 2,171) as proxy cases. Published GWAS summary statistics were used in our analyses. Estimates were obtained from inverse variance weighting with sensitivity analysis (i.e., MR-Egger, weighted median and MR-PRESSO). Multivariable analyses adjusted for pleiotropic effects and possible sources of selection bias were also performed. Genetically predicted higher total testosterone may reduce the risk of paternal Alzheimer's disease (odds ratio (OR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76 to 0.97, per SD increase in testosterone) and in meta-analysis for women (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87, 0.98) with directionally similar results from other analyses. SHBG were not associated with Alzheimer's disease. IGF-1 in women was inversely associated with risk of clinical Alzheimer's disease in sensitivity analysis but not in the main analysis. These results suggest genetically predicted higher total testosterone may lower risk of Alzheimer's disease. The role of testosterone and the immune system in Alzheimer's disease could be further investigated.

Environment- and epigenome-wide association study of obesity in 'Children of 1997' birth cohort

Background

Increasing childhood obesity is a global issue requiring potentially local solutions to ensure it does not continue into adulthood. We systematically identified potentially modifiable targets of obesity at the onset and end of puberty in Hong Kong, the most economically developed major Chinese city.

Methods

We conducted an environment-wide association study (EWAS) and an epigenome-wide association study of obesity to systematically assess associations with body mass index (BMI) and waist-hip ratio (WHR) in Hong Kong's population-representative 'Children of 1997' birth cohort. Univariable linear regression was used to select exposures related to obesity at ~11.5 years (BMI and obesity risk n ≤ 7119, WHR n = 5691) and ~17.6 years (n = 3618) at Bonferroni-corrected significance, and multivariable regression to adjust for potential confounders followed by replicated multivariable regression (n = 308) and CpG by CpG analysis (n = 286) at ~23 years. Findings were compared with evidence from published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies.

Results

At ~11.5 and~17.6 years the EWAS identified 14 and 37 exposures associated with BMI, as well as 7 and 12 associated with WHR, respectively. Most exposures had directionally consistent associations at ~23 years. Maternal second-hand smoking, maternal weight, and birth weight were consistently associated with obesity. Diet (including dairy intake and artificially sweetened beverages), physical activity, snoring, binge eating, and earlier puberty were positively associated with BMI at ~17.6 years, while eating before sleep was inversely associated with BMI at ~17.6 years. Findings for birth weight, dairy intake, and binge eating are consistent with available evidence from RCTs or MR studies. We found 17 CpGs related to BMI and 17 to WHR.

Conclusions

These novel insights into potentially modifiable factors associated with obesity at the outset and the end of puberty could, if causal, inform future interventions to improve population health in Hong Kong and similar Chinese settings.

Funding

This study including the follow-up survey and epigenetics testing was supported by the Health and Medical Research Fund Research Fellowship, Food and Health Bureau, Hong Kong SAR Government (#04180097). The DNA extraction of the samples used for epigenetic testing was supported by CFS-HKU1.

Effect of basal metabolic rate on lifespan: a sex-specific Mendelian randomization study

Observationally, the association of basal metabolic rate (BMR) with mortality is mixed, although some ageing theories suggest that higher BMR should reduce lifespan. It remains unclear whether a causal association exists. In this one-sample Mendelian randomization study, we aimed to estimate the casual effect of BMR on parental attained age, a proxy for lifespan, using two-sample Mendelian randomization methods. We obtained genetic variants strongly (p-value < 5 × 10^-8) and independently (r² < 0.001) predicting BMR from the UK Biobank and applied them to a genome-wide association study of parental attained age based on the UK Biobank. We meta-analyzed genetic variant-specific Wald ratios using inverse-variance weighting with multiplicative random effects by sex, supplemented by sensitivity analysis. A total of 178 and 180 genetic variants predicting BMR in men and women were available for father's and mother's attained age, respectively. Genetically predicted BMR was inversely associated with father's and mother's attained age (years of life lost per unit increase in effect size of genetically predicted BMR, 0.46 and 1.36; 95% confidence interval 0.07-0.85 and 0.89-1.82), with a stronger association in women than men. In conclusion, higher BMR might reduce lifespan. The underlying pathways linking to major causes of death and relevant interventions warrant further investigation.

Insights into Causal Cardiovascular Risk Factors from Mendelian Randomization

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

This review summarizes major insights into causal risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) by using Mendelian randomization (MR) to obtain unconfounded estimates, contextualized within its strengths and weaknesses.

RECENT FINDINGS

MR studies have confirmed the role of major CVD risk factors, including alcohol, smoking, adiposity, blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, lipids, and possibly inflammation, but added that the relation with alcohol is likely linear, confirmed the role of diastolic blood pressure, identified apolipoprotein B as the major target lipid, and foreshadowed results of some trials concerning anti-inflammatories. Identifying a healthy diet and the role of early life influences, such as birth weight, has proved more difficult. Use of MR has winnowed empirically driven hypotheses about CVD into a set of genetically validated targets of intervention. Greater inclusion of global diversity in genetic studies and the use of an overarching framework would enable even more informative MR studies.

Statins, Type 2 Diabetes, and Body Mass Index: A Univariable and Multivariable Mendelian Randomization Study

CONTEXT

Statins and possibly other lipid modifiers increase type 2 diabetes risk and body mass index (BMI). However, to what extent BMI mediates the diabetogenic effects of lipid modifiers remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to investigate the effects of commonly used lipid modifiers on type 2 diabetes risk and glycemic traits, and any mediation by BMI.

METHODS

Using established genetic variants to mimic commonly used lipid modifiers (ie, statins, PCSK9 inhibitors, and ezetimibe), we assessed their associations with type 2 diabetes risk, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, and BMI in the largest relevant genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in people of European ancestry, and where possible, in East Asians. We used multivariable MR to examine the role of lipid modifiers independent of BMI.

RESULTS

Genetically mimicked effects of statins and ezetimibe, but not PCSK9 inhibitors were associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1.74 [95% CI, 1.49 to 2.03]; 1.92 [1.22 to 3.02]; 1.06 [0.87 to 1.29] per SD reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol). Of these lipid modifiers, only genetic mimics of statins were associated with higher BMI (0.33 SD [0.29 to 0.38] per SD reduction in LDL-cholesterol), which explained 54% of the total effect of statins on type 2 diabetes risk.

CONCLUSION

Higher BMI mediated more than half of the diabetogenic effects of statins, which did not extend to other commonly used lipid modifiers. Further investigations are needed to clarify drug-specific mechanisms underlying the effects of lipid modifiers on type 2 diabetes.

Investigating sex-specific associations of lipid traits with type 2 diabetes, glycemic traits and sex hormones using Mendelian randomization

BACKGROUND

Low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol is positively associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and inversely associated with type 2 diabetes, which could detract from lipid modification. Here, we examined whether lipid traits potentially relevant to CVD aetiology, i.e. apolipoprotein B (apoB), triglycerides (TG) and lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] exhibited the same associations. We investigated sex-specifically, including the role of sex hormones, because sex disparities exist in lipid profile and type 2 diabetes. We also replicated where possible.

METHODS

We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine sex-specific associations of apoB, TG and Lp(a) with type 2 diabetes, HbA1c, fasting insulin, fasting glucose, testosterone and estradiol in the largest relevant sex-specific genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in people of European ancestry and replicated where possible. We also assessed sex-specific associations of liability to type 2 diabetes with apoB, TG and Lp(a).

RESULTS

Genetically predicted apoB and Lp(a) had little association with type 2 diabetes or glycemic traits in women or men. Genetically predicted higher TG was associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk [odds ratio (OR) 1.44 per standard deviation (SD), 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26 to 1.65], HbA1c and fasting insulin specifically in women. Higher TG was associated with lower testosterone in women and higher testosterone in men, but with lower estradiol in men and women. Genetic liability to type 2 diabetes was associated with higher TG in women, and possibly with lower apoB in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Lipid traits potentially relevant to CVD aetiology do not exhibit contrasting associations with CVD and type 2 diabetes. However, higher TG is associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk and glycemic traits, which in turn further increases TG specifically in women, possibly driven by sex hormones.

The impact of the minimum wage on suicide rates in Hong Kong

Increases in minimum wages have been associated with reductions in suicide rates in the United States, but little evidence is available for Asia where social and contextual factors, as well as drivers of suicide, may be different. We investigated the impact of the introduction of the minimum wage in Hong Kong in May 2011 on suicide rates using an interrupted time series design for the period January 2006 to December 2016. We investigated both immediate and gradual changes in monthly suicide rates after the introduction of the minimum wage taking into account secular trends. We conducted stratified analyses by age and gender. In total 9396 suicides were recorded in Hong Kong during the 11-year study period. Introduction of the minimum wage was associated with an immediate decrease of 13.0% in the monthly suicide rate (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.4%-19.9%, P = 0.001). There was an immediate decrease of 15.8% in older working aged (25-64 years) men (95% CI: 4.2%-25.9%, P = 0.009). Point estimates of immediate effect for other subgroups were also in a negative direction, but were not statistically significant. There was no evidence of a gradual effect on suicide rates at the population level or by subgroup other than a small increase in younger working aged men. We estimate that 633 suicides were prevented by the minimum wage legislation for the period from May 2011 to December 2016, the majority in older working aged men. Our results provide new evidence that, similar to findings in Western settings, minimum wages may help to reduce suicide in Asia, particularly for working age men. Our study highlights the importance of examining the health impacts of government economic policy and suggests minimum wages may provide policy makers with an upstream population-based strategy to reduce suicide rates.

Association of autoimmune diseases with Alzheimer's disease: A mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease may have an autoimmune component, but the association is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this Mendelian randomization (MR) study was to evaluate the association of liability to autoimmune diseases with Alzheimer's disease.

METHODS

A systematic search was done using PubMed to identify autoimmune diseases that have been suggested as associated with Alzheimer's disease. Genetic predictors of these autoimmune diseases were obtained from the largest and most recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Genetic associations with clinically-diagnosed Alzheimer's disease were obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project GWAS (21982 cases; 41944 controls); and with parental and sibling history of Alzheimer's disease from the UK Biobank GWAS (27696 maternal, 14338 paternal and 2171 sibling cases). MR estimates were obtained using inverse variance weighting, MR-Egger and weighted median. To address possible selection bias due to inevitably recruiting only survivors, the analysis was repeated in younger people, i.e., UK Biobank siblings and adjusting for competing risk of Alzheimer's disease.

RESULTS

Of the 7 autoimmune diseases considered, liability to psoriasis and sarcoidosis were not associated with Alzheimer's disease. Some evidence was found for liability to multiple sclerosis being associated with higher risk and liability to Sjogren's syndrome with lower risk of Alzheimer's disease. Associations found for liability to giant cell arteritis, type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis were inconsistent in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Liability to multiple sclerosis and Sjogren's syndrome could be associated with Alzheimer's disease. The underlying mechanisms, such as the role of myelin and neuroinflammation, should be further investigated.

Association of growth patterns during infancy and puberty with lung function, wheezing and asthma in adolescents aged 17.5 years: evidence from ‘Children of 1997’ Hong Kong Chinese Birth Cohort

Background

Rapid growth is related to adverse respiratory outcomes although possibly confounded or limited by growth modelling methods. We investigated the association of infant and pubertal growth with lung function, wheezing and asthma in a non-Western setting.

Methods

In Hong Kong’s ‘Children of 1997’ Chinese birth cohort (n = 8327), weight during infancy and weight, height and body mass index (BMI) during puberty were modelled using a super-imposition by translation and rotation model to identify (larger or smaller) size, (earlier or later) tempo and (slower or faster) velocity. Sex-specific associations with forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), FEV1/FVC (Global Lung function Initiative z-score) and self-reported wheezing and asthma at ∼17.5 years were assessed.

Results

For each fraction higher than average weight growth velocity during infancy, FVC was higher in boys (0.90 SD, 95% CI 0.35; 1.44) and girls (0.77 SD, 95% CI 0.24; 1.30), FEV1/FVC was lower (–0.74 SD, 95% CI –1.38; –0.10) and wheezing was higher (odds ratio 6.92, 95% CI 1.60; 29.99) in boys and an inverse association with FVC was observed for tempo but not for size. Associations for weight growth velocity in puberty were similar but weaker. Greater size and higher velocity of BMI growth was associated with higher FVC, lower FEV1/FVC and higher asthma and wheezing risk.

Conclusion

Accelerated infant and pubertal weight growth were associated with disproportionate lung size and airway growth, and higher risk of asthma; optimizing early-life growth patterns could be important.

L-carnitine, a friend or foe for cardiovascular disease? A Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

L-carnitine is emerging as an item of interest for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and treatment, but controversy exists. To examine the effectiveness and safety of L-carnitine, we assessed how genetically different levels of L-carnitine are associated with CVD risk and its risk factors. Given higher CVD incidence and L-carnitine in men, we also examined sex-specific associations.

METHODS

We used Mendelian randomization to obtain unconfounded estimates. Specifically, we used genetic variants to predict L-carnitine, and obtained their associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), ischemic stroke, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation, as well as CVD risk factors (type 2 diabetes, glucose, HbA1c, insulin, lipid profile, blood pressure and body mass index) in large consortia and established cohorts, as well as sex-specific association in the UK Biobank. We obtained the Wald estimates (genetic association with CVD and its risk factors divided by the genetic association with L-carnitine) and combined them using inverse variance weighting. In sensitivity analysis, we used different analysis methods robust to pleiotropy and replicated using an L-carnitine isoform, acetyl-carnitine.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted L-carnitine was nominally associated with higher risk of CAD overall (OR 1.07 per standard deviation (SD) increase in L-carnitine, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.11) and in men (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) but had a null association in women (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.09). These associations were also robust to different methods and evident for acetyl-carnitine.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings do not support a beneficial association of L-carnitine with CVD and its risk factors but suggest potential harm. L-carnitine may also exert a sex-specific role in CAD. Consideration of the possible sex disparity and exploration of the underlying pathways would be worthwhile.

Association of smoking, lung function and COPD in COVID-19 risk: a two-step Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Smoking increases the risk of severe COVID-19, but whether lung function or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mediate the underlying associations is unclear. We conducted the largest Mendelian randomization study to date, to our knowledge, to address these questions.

DESIGN

Mendelian randomization study using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), FinnGen and UK Biobank. The main analysis was the inverse variance weighted method, and we included a range of sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the findings.

SETTING

GWAS which included international consortia, FinnGen and UK Biobank.

PARTICIPANTS

The sample size ranged from 193 638 to 2 586 691.

MEASUREMENTS

Genetic determinants of life-time smoking index, lung function [e.g. forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV₁ )], chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and different severities of COID-19.

RESULTS

Smoking increased the risk of COVID-19 compared with population controls for overall COVID-19 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.19 per standard deviation (SD) of life-time smoking index, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.11-1.27], hospitalized COVID-19 (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.42-1.97) or severe COVID-19 (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.10-1.98), with directionally consistent effects from sensitivity analyses. Lung function and COPD liability did not appear to mediate these associations.

CONCLUSION

There is genetic evidence that smoking probably increases the risk of severe COVID-19 and possibly also milder forms of COVID-19. Decreased lung function and increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease do not seem to mediate the effect of smoking on COVID-19 risk.

Insulin Receptor Genetic Variants Causal Association with Type 2 Diabetes: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a prevalent chronic disease associated with several comorbidities.

Objectives

This study investigated whether the risk of T2D varied with genetically predicted insulin (INS), insulin receptor (INS-R), or insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF-1R) using genetic variants in a Mendelian randomization (MR) study.

Methods

A 2-sample MR study was conducted using summary statistics from 2 genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Genetic predictors of the exposures (INS, INS-R, and IGF-1R) were obtained from a publicly available proteomics GWAS of the INTERVAL randomized controlled trial of blood donation in the United Kingdom. For T2D, the study leveraged the DIAbetes Meta-ANalysis of Trans-Ethnic association studies (DIAMANTE) consortium. The estimated associations of INS, INS-R, and IGF-1R proteins with T2D were based on independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) strongly (P < 5 × 10-6) predicting each exposure. These SNPs were applied to publicly available genetic associations with T2D from the DIAMANTE case (n = 74,124) and control (n = 824,006) study of people of European descent. SNP-specific Wald estimates were meta-analyzed using inverse variance weighting with multiplicative random effects. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using the weighted median (WM) and MR-Egger.

Results

INS-R (based on 13 SNPs) was associated with a lower risk of T2D (OR: 0.95 per effect size; 95% CI: 0.92, 0.98; P = 0.001), with similar estimates from the WM and MR-Egger. Insulin (8 SNPs) and IGF-1R (10 SNPs) were not associated with T2D. However, 1 of the SNPs for INS-R was from the ABO blood group gene.

Conclusions

This study is consistent with a causally protective association of the INS-R with T2D. INS-R in RBCs regulates glycolysis and thus may affect their functionality and integrity. However, a pleiotropic effect via the blood group ABO gene cannot be excluded. The INS-R may be a target for intervention by repurposing existing therapeutics or otherwise to reduce the risk of T2D.

Using genetics to assess the association of commonly used antihypertensive drugs with diabetes, glycaemic traits and lipids: a trans-ancestry Mendelian randomisation study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Diabetes and hyperlipidaemia are common comorbidities in people with hypertension. Despite similar protective effects on CVD, different classes of antihypertensive drugs have different effects on CVD risk factors, including diabetes, glucose metabolism and lipids. However, these pleiotropic effects have not been assessed in long-term, large randomised controlled trials, especially for East Asians.

METHODS

We used Mendelian randomisation to obtain unconfounded associations of ACE inhibitors, β-blockers (BBs) and calcium channel blockers (CCBs). Specifically, we used genetic variants in drug target genes and related to systolic BP in Europeans and East Asians, and applied them to the largest available genome-wide association studies of diabetes (74,124 cases and 824,006 controls in Europeans, 77,418 cases and 356,122 controls in East Asians), blood glucose levels, HbA_1c, and lipids (LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and triacylglycerols) (approximately 0.5 million Europeans and 0.1 million East Asians). We used coronary artery disease (CAD) as a control outcome and used different genetic instruments and analysis methods as sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

As expected, genetically proxied ACE inhibition, BBs and CCBs were related to lower risk of CAD in both ancestries. Genetically proxied ACE inhibition was associated with a lower risk of diabetes (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.78-0.93), and genetic proxies for BBs were associated with a higher risk of diabetes (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.09). The estimates were similar in East Asians, and were corroborated by systematic review and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. In both ancestries, genetic proxies for BBs were associated with lower HDL-cholesterol and higher triacylglycerols, and genetic proxies for CCBs were associated with higher LDL-cholesterol. The estimates were robust to the use of different genetic instruments and analytical methods.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest protective association of genetically proxied ACE inhibition with diabetes, while genetic proxies for BBs and CCBs possibly relate to an unfavourable metabolic profile. Developing a deeper understanding of the pathways underlying these diverse associations would be worthwhile, with implications for drug repositioning as well as optimal CVD prevention and treatment strategies in people with hypertension, diabetes and/or hyperlipidaemia.

Investigating the effects of statins on ischemic heart disease allowing for effects on body mass index: a Mendelian randomization study

Despite effective lipid reduction and corresponding benefits for cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment, statins have pleiotropic effects potentially increasing the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), particularly by increasing body mass index (BMI). We assessed whether the effects of genetically mimicked statins on IHD were strengthened by adjusting for BMI in men and women. We also assessed if increasing BMI was specific to statins in comparison to other major lipid-lowering treatments in current use, i.e., proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors and ezetimibe. Using univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) we found genetically mimicked effects of statins increased BMI (0.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.28 to 0.38), but genetically mimicked PCSK9 inhibitors and ezetimibe did not. Genetically mimicked effects of statins on IHD reduction in both sexes (odds ratio (OR) 0.55 per unit decrease in effect size of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 0.76), was largely similar after adjusting for BMI, in both men (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.61) and women (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.82). Compared with variations in PCSK9 and NPC1L1, only variation in HMGCR was associated with higher BMI. The effects on IHD of mimicking statins were similar after adjusting for BMI in both men and women. The BMI increase due to statins does not seem to be a concern as regards the protective effects of statins on IHD, however other factors driving BMI and the protective effects of statins could be.

Mendelian randomization

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a term that applies to the use of genetic variation to address causal questions about how modifiable exposures influence different outcomes. The principles of MR are based on Mendel's laws of inheritance and instrumental variable estimation methods, which enable the inference of causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. In this Primer, we outline the principles of MR, the instrumental variable conditions underlying MR estimation and some of the methods used for estimation. We go on to discuss how the assumptions underlying an MR study can be assessed and give methods of estimation that are robust to certain violations of these assumptions. We give examples of a range of studies in which MR has been applied, the limitations of current methods of analysis and the outlook for MR in the future. The difference between the assumptions required for MR analysis and other forms of non-interventional epidemiological studies means that MR can be used as part of a triangulation across multiple sources of evidence for causal inference.

Relative Deprivation, Income Inequality, and Cardiovascular Health: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Studies in Hong Kong Chinese

The associations between absolute vs. relative income at the household or neighborhood level and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remain understudied in the Chinese context. Further, it is unclear whether stress biomarkers, such as cortisol, are on the pathway from income to CVD risk. We examined the associations of absolute and relative income with CVD risk observationally, as well as the mediating role of cortisol, and validated the role of cortisol using Mendelian Randomization (MR) in Hong Kong Chinese. Within Hong Kong's FAMILY Cohort, associations of absolute and relative income at both the individual and neighborhood levels with CVD risk [body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, self-reported CVD and self-reported diabetes] were examined using multilevel logistic or linear models (n = 17,607), the mediating role of cortisol using the mediation analysis (n = 1,562), and associations of genetically predicted cortisol with CVD risk using the multiplicative generalized method of moments (MGMMs) or two-stage least squares regression (n = 1,562). In our cross-sectional observational analysis, relative household income deprivation (per 1 SD, equivalent to USD 128 difference in Yitzhaki index) was associated with higher systolic blood pressure (0.47 mmHg, 95% CI 0.30–0.64), but lower BMI (−0.07 kg/m², 95% CI −0.11 to −0.04), independent of absolute income. Neighborhood income inequality was generally unrelated to CVD and its risk factors, nor was absolute income at the household or neighborhood level. Cortisol did not clearly mediate the association of relative household income deprivation with systolic blood pressure. Using MR, cortisol was unrelated to CVD risk. Based on our findings, relative household income deprivation was not consistently associated with cardiovascular health in Hong Kong Chinese, nor were neighborhood income inequality and absolute income, highlighting the context-specific ways in which relative and absolute income are linked to CVD risk.

Development and validation of the EHS-COPD model to predict sex-specific risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in older Chinese adults: Hong Kong’s Elderly Health Service Cohort

Background

No screening program is recommended for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in adults based on current clinical practice guidelines. Risk prediction models for COPD developed in Western settings may not be directly applicable to older Chinese adults. To evaluate the performance of an existing risk prediction model for COPD developed in a Western setting in Chinese adults and investigate whether a new risk prediction model performs better in predicting 5-year risk of COPD (EHS-COPD).

Methods

This study is based on 135,822 participants aged 65+ years from Hong Kong’s Elderly Health Service (EHS) cohort. We assessed the performance of an existing risk prediction model in the entire cohort, and in a random sub-sample of 91,133 participants, we recalibrated the existing model and derived a new model using extended Cox proportional hazards regression. Candidate risk predictors from the literature and the EHS cohort were considered for inclusion. Risk prediction performance, discrimination, and calibration of the newly derived models were assessed in the remaining 44,689 participants.

Results

The existing risk prediction model overestimated the 5-year risk of COPD in older Chinese adults (65+ years); after recalibration, it still overestimated the 5-year risk of COPD for both men and women. The new EHS-COPD risk prediction model, including time-varying factors (i.e., age and smoking status) and time-invariant factors (i.e., education level, public assistance, alcohol use, body mass index, physical activity, existing hypertension, recent falls, cognitive function, and self-rated health status), had an improved performance. For men, EHS-COPD explained 19.5% of COPD risk, the D statistic was 23.1, and Harrell’s C statistic was 0.93. The corresponding values for women were 8.5%, 21.1, and 0.93.

Conclusions

The existing COPD risk prediction model overpredicted COPD risk in older Chinese and could not be recalibrated to predict well. A revised prediction model using time-invariant and time-varying factors provides a better tool for identifying older Chinese adults at high risk of developing COPD.

Timing of Pubertal Development and Midlife Blood Pressure in Men and Women: A Mendelian Randomization Study

INTRODUCTION

Observational studies suggest earlier puberty is associated with higher adulthood blood pressure (BP), but these findings have not been replicated using Mendelian randomization (MR). We examined this question sex-specifically using larger genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with more extensive measures of pubertal timing.

METHODS

We obtained genetic instruments proxying pubertal maturation (age at menarche [AAM] or voice breaking [AVB]) from the largest published GWAS. We applied them to summary sex-specific genetic associations with systolic and diastolic BP z-scores, and self-reported hypertension in women (n = 194 174) and men (n = 167 020) from the UK Biobank, using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. We conducted sensitivity analyses using other MR methods, including multivariable MR adjusted for childhood obesity proxied by body mass index (BMI). We used late pubertal growth as a validation outcome.

RESULTS

AAM (beta per 1-year later = -0.030 [95% confidence interval, -0.055 to -0.005] and AVB (beta -0.058 [95% CI, -0.100 to -0.015]) were inversely associated with systolic BP independent of childhood BMI, as were diastolic BP (-0.035 [95% CI, -0.060 to -0.009] for AAM and -0.046 [95% CI, -0.089 to -0.004] for AVB) and self-reported hypertension (odds ratio 0.89 [95% CI, 0.84-0.95] for AAM and 0.87 [95% CI, 0.79-0.96] for AVB). AAM and AVB were positively associated with late pubertal growth, as expected. The results were robust to sensitivity analysis using other MR methods.

CONCLUSION

Timing of pubertal maturation was associated with adulthood BP independent of childhood BMI, highlighting the role of pubertal maturation timing in midlife BP.

Maternal respiratory health and intrauterine exposure-driven birthweight: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Observationally, poorer maternal respiratory health is associated with poorer birth outcomes, possibly confounded by socioeconomic position and other maternal attributes. We used multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to obtain unconfounded estimates of effect of maternal lung function on birthweight, independent of maternal height.

METHODS

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in women were obtained from publicly available summary statistics from the UK Biobank. SNPs for asthma were obtained from the Trans-National Asthma Genetic consortium. SNPs for height in women were obtained from the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits consortium and the genetic estimates were obtained the UK Biobank. The genetic associations with maternally-driven birthweight were obtained from the Early Growth Genetics consortium. Multivariable MR estimates were obtained using inverse variance weighting with multivariable MR-Egger as sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Maternal lung capacity, as indicated by FVC, was positively associated with maternally-driven birthweight (0.08 per standard deviation, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15) independent of maternal height, whereas no clear such associations were shown for maternal airway function, indicated by FEV1 and peak expiratory flow, or for asthma, on maternally-driven birthweight. Similar findings were shown using MR-Egger.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that maternal lung function, especially lung capacity independent of maternal height, is directly associated with maternally-driven birthweight, and highlights the importance of maternal respiratory health in fetal growth.

Blood pressure and risk of cancer: a Mendelian randomization study

Background

Previous large observational cohort studies showed higher blood pressure (BP) positively associated with cancer. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to obtain less confounded estimates of BP on total and site-specific cancers.

Methods

We applied replicated genetic instruments for systolic and diastolic BP to summary genetic associations with total cancer (37387 cases, 367856 non-cases) from the UK Biobank, and 17 site-specific cancers (663–17881 cases) from a meta-analysis of the UK Biobank and the Kaiser Permanente Genetic Epidemiology Research on Adult Health and Aging. We used inverse-variance weighting with multiplicative random effects as the main analysis, and sensitivity analyses including the weighted median, MR-Egger and multivariable MR adjusted for body mass index and for smoking. For validation, we included breast (Breast Cancer Association Consortium: 133384 cases, 113789 non-cases), prostate (Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome Consortium: 79194 cases, 61112 non-cases) and lung (International Lung and Cancer Consortium: 10246 cases, 38295 non-cases) cancer from large consortia. We used asthma as a negative control outcome.

Results

Systolic and diastolic BP were unrelated to total cancer (OR 0.98 per standard deviation higher [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89, 1.07] and OR 1.00 [95% CI 0.92, 1.08]) and to site-specific cancers after accounting for multiple testing, with consistent findings from consortia. BP was nominally associated with melanoma and possibly kidney cancer, and as expected, not associated with asthma. Sensitivity analyses using other MR methods gave similar results.

Conclusions

In contrast to previous observational evidence, BP does not appear to be a risk factor for cancer, although an effect on melanoma and kidney cancer cannot be excluded. Other targets for cancer prevention might be more relevant.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-09067-x.

Impact of Liability to Periodontitis on Glycemic Control and Type II Diabetes Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Study

While the association of periodontitis with Type II diabetes (T2DM) is well-established, the causal relationship remains uncertain. We examined the causal association of periodontitis with glycemic traits (HbA1c, fasting glucose, and fasting insulin) and T2DM using Mendelian randomization (MR) taking advantage of large genome-wide association studies of European and East Asian adults, i.e., the UK Biobank (n ≈ 350,000) (HbA1c), trans-ancestral MAGIC (HbA1c, fasting glucose, and insulin), and DIAMANTE (74,124 cases/824,006 controls), and AGEN for T2DM in Europeans and East Asians, respectively. Periodontitis was instrumented using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), strongly and independently predicting liability to periodontitis in each ancestry group. SNP-specific Wald estimates were combined using inverse variance weighting. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the weighted median and MR-Egger with meta-analysis of MR estimates for Europeans and East Asians. Genetically instrumented liability to periodontitis was not associated with glycemic traits or T2DM in either ancestry or when ancestry specific estimates were meta-analyzed. Our findings do not support a causal association of liability to periodontitis with glycemic traits or T2DM. However, further research is required confirming these findings among other racial/ethnic groups, especially groups who carry a heavy burden of both periodontitis and T2DM.

Investigating genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition on immune-related diseases in men and women using Mendelian randomization

Statins have been suggested as a potential treatment for immune-related diseases. Conversely, statins might trigger auto-immune conditions. To clarify the role of statins in allergic diseases and auto-immune diseases, we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Using established genetic instruments to mimic statins via 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR) inhibition, we assessed the effects of statins on asthma, eczema, allergic rhinitis, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriasis, type 1 diabetes, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), multiple sclerosis (MS), Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis in the largest available genome wide association studies (GWAS). Genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition were not associated with any immune-related diseases in either study after correcting for multiple testing; however, they were positively associated with the risk of asthma in East Asians (odds ratio (OR) 2.05 per standard deviation (SD) decrease in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 3.52, p value 0.009). These associations did not differ by sex and were robust to sensitivity analysis. These findings suggested that genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition have little effect on allergic diseases or auto-immune diseases. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that genetically mimicked effects of statins via HMGCR inhibition might increase the risk of asthma in East Asians.

Understanding longevity in Hong Kong: a comparative study with long-living, high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Since 2013, Hong Kong has sustained the world's highest life expectancy at birth-a key indicator of population health. The reasons behind this achievement remain poorly understood but are of great relevance to both rapidly developing and high-income regions. Here, we aim to compare factors behind Hong Kong's survival advantage over long-living, high-income countries.

METHODS

Life expectancy data from 1960-2020 were obtained for 18 high-income countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development from the Human Mortality Database and for Hong Kong from Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department. Causes of death data from 1950-2016 were obtained from WHO's Mortality Database. We used truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) to identify the contributions to survival differences based on 263 million deaths overall. As smoking is the leading cause of premature death, we also compared smoking-attributable mortality between Hong Kong and the high-income countries.

FINDINGS

From 1979-2016, Hong Kong accumulated a substantial survival advantage over high-income countries, with a difference of 1·86 years (95% CI 1·83-1·89) for males and 2·50 years (2·47-2·53) for females. As mortality from infectious diseases declined, the main contributors to Hong Kong's survival advantage were lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases for both males (TCAL difference 1·22 years, 95% CI 1·21-1·23) and females (1·19 years, 1·18-1·21), cancer for females (0·47 years, 0·45-0·48), and transport accidents for males (0·27 years, 0·27-0·28). Among high-income populations, Hong Kong recorded the lowest cardiovascular mortality and one of the lowest cancer mortalities in women. These findings were underpinned by the lowest absolute smoking-attributable mortality in high-income regions (39·7 per 100 000 in 2016, 95% CI 34·4-45·0). Reduced smoking-attributable mortality contributed to 50·5% (0·94 years, 0·93-0·95) of Hong Kong's survival advantage over males in high-income countries and 34·8% (0·87 years, 0·87-0·88) of it in females.

INTERPRETATION

Hong Kong's leading longevity is the result of fewer diseases of poverty while suppressing the diseases of affluence. A unique combination of economic prosperity and low levels of smoking with development contributed to this achievement. As such, it offers a framework that could be replicated through deliberate policies in developing and developed populations globally.

FUNDING

Early Career Scheme (RGC ECS Grant #27602415), Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee of Hong Kong.

Exploring pleiotropic effects of lipid modifiers on coagulation and hemostasis with genetics

BACKGROUND

Statins have long been suspected to have pleiotropic effects via thrombotic factors. Randomized controlled trials are too limited to be definitive. We examined the associations of genetically mimicking effects of statins, PCSK9 inhibitors and alternative lipid targets (in genes LDLR, APOC3, and LPL) on key indicators of coagulation system function, i.e., prothrombin time (PT) and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT).

METHODS

We assessed the effect of established genetic mimics of effects of lipid modifiers and alternative lipid treatment targets on PT (n=58,110) and aPTT (n=37,767), all transformed to z-scores, using Mendelian randomization taking advantage of Biobank Japan. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) was a control outcome.

RESULTS

Genetically mimicked effects of statins increased PT by 0.31 standard deviation (SD) per SD increase in LDL (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.10 to 0.51) based on rs12916 but did not affect aPTT. Genetically mimicking effects of targeting LDLR increased PT based on rs688 (0.33 SD per SD increase in TG, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.63) but did not affect aPTT. Genetically mimicking effects of PCSK9 inhibitors or targeting APOC3, or LPL had no effect on PT or aPTT. Genetically mimicking effects of statins, PCSK9 inhibitors and alternative lipid targets reduced risk of IHD in Biobank Japan.

CONCLUSION

Statins, and possibly targeting LDLR, may also act via a coagulation cascade factor, likely specific to the extrinsic or common pathway. Further elucidation of the mechanistic pathway may facilitate development of new interventions and inform use of statins particularly in relation to use of other anticoagulants.

Credible Mendelian Randomization Studies in the Presence of Selection Bias Using Control Exposures

Selection bias is increasingly acknowledged as a limitation of Mendelian randomization (MR). However, few methods exist to assess this issue. We focus on two plausible causal structures relevant to MR studies and illustrate the data-generating process underlying selection bias via simulation studies. We conceptualize the use of control exposures to validate MR estimates derived from selected samples by detecting potential selection bias and reproducing the exposure-outcome association of primary interest based on subject matter knowledge. We discuss the criteria for choosing the control exposures. We apply the proposal in an MR study investigating the potential effect of higher transferrin with stroke (including ischemic and cardioembolic stroke) using transferrin saturation and iron status as control exposures. Theoretically, selection bias affects associations of genetic instruments with the outcome in selected samples, violating the exclusion-restriction assumption and distorting MR estimates. Our applied example showing inconsistent effects of genetically predicted higher transferrin and higher transferrin saturation on stroke suggests the potential selection bias. Furthermore, the expected associations of genetically predicted higher iron status on stroke and longevity indicate no systematic selection bias. The routine use of control exposures in MR studies provides a valuable tool to validate estimated causal effects. Like the applied example, an antagonist, decoy, or exposure with similar biological activity as the exposure of primary interest, which has the same potential selection bias sources as the exposure-outcome association, is suggested as the control exposure. An additional or a validated control exposure with a well-established association with the outcome is also recommended to explore possible systematic selection bias.

Using genetics to understand the role of kidney function in COVID-19: a mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Kidney dysfunction occurs in severe COVID-19, and is a predictor of COVID-19 mortality. Whether kidney dysfunction causes severe COVID-19, and hence is a target of intervention, or whether it is a symptom, is unclear because conventional observational studies are open to confounding. To obtain unconfounded estimates, we used Mendelian randomization to examine the role of kidney function in severe COVID-19.

METHODS

We used genome-wide significant, uncorrelated genetic variants to predict kidney function, in terms of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and then assessed whether people with genetically instrumented higher eGFR or lower UACR, an indication of better kidney function, had a lower risk of severe COVID-19 (8779 cases, 1,001,875 controls), using the largest available cohorts with extensive genotyping. For comprehensiveness, we also examined their role in COVID-19 hospitalization (24,274 cases, 2,061,529 controls) and all COVID-19 (1,12,612 cases, 2,474,079 controls).

RESULTS

Genetically instrumented higher eGFR was associated with lower risk of severe COVID-19 (odds ratio (OR) 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83, 0.98) but not related to COVID-19 hospitalization or infection. Genetically instrumented UACR was not related to COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Kidney function appears to be one of the key targets for severe COVID-19 treatment. Use of available medications to improve kidney function, such as antihypertensives, might be beneficial for COVID-19 treatment, with relevance to drug repositioning.

The total and direct effects of systolic and diastolic blood pressure on cardiovascular disease and longevity using Mendelian randomisation

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) blood pressure (BP) guidelines lowered the hypertension threshold to ≥ 130/80 mmHg, but the role of diastolic BP remains contested. This two-sample mendelian randomisation study used replicated genetic variants predicting systolic and diastolic BP applied to the UK Biobank and large genetic consortia, including of cardiovascular diseases and parental lifespan, to obtain total and direct effects. Systolic and diastolic BP had positive total effects on CVD (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation 2.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.95, 2.37 and OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.73, 2.11, respectively). Direct effects were similar for systolic BP (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.48, 2.25) but completely attenuated for diastolic BP (1.18, 95% CI 0.97, 1.44), although diastolic BP was associated with coronary artery disease (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.03, 1.50). Systolic and diastolic BP had similarly negative total (- 0.20 parental attained age z-score, 95% CI - 0.22, - 0.17 and - 0.17, 95% CI - 0.20, - 0.15, respectively) and direct negative effects on longevity. Our findings suggest systolic BP has larger direct effects than diastolic BP on CVD, but both have negative effects (total and direct) on longevity, supporting the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines lowering both BP targets.